PSA-Petsec Energy

[JBmurc]

Can't find the old thread.

What PSA holders thoughts on 52week low prices 123-125
Can't believe it myself real Quailty Energy stock at bargin prices
had to take a CFD long in PSA
Most analyst have PSA valued at least 100% above current prices

Some PSA facts-

reserves Growth -38%

Prospect Invertory-Gas 290Bcf Oil 35MMbbl+

Net Revenue-US 59m


PSA is working in the worlds 2 major energy consumers USA-China

PSA current Mrktcap-201m

[Rif-Raf]

Shares have taken off following todays announcement which reads very well I like the "substantial immediate earnings gains" and majoriry of debt to fund the acquisition paid off in 2 years. Looks like this could be the news that's finally got the price to break out.

[JBmurc]

Looking good to make another solid run tomorrow on the back of the good purchase\ market can't but be impressed nice doubling of there reserves & production was undervalued before the news. $2 easy -Time some of these smaller caps get noticed

[JBmurc]

Petsec doubles US oil and gas assets
Email Printer friendly version Normal font Large font October 11, 2007 - 2:04PM

Advertisement
Shares in Petsec Energy Ltd jumped more than 14 per cent in afternoon trade on news it will double its US oil and gas reserves and production with a $US110 million ($A122 million) acquisition.

Petsec shares were 20 cents, or 14.34 per cent, higher to $1.595 at 1338 AEST Thursday.

The Sydney based company, which has operations in the Gulf of Mexico and onshore Louisiana, is acquiring seven onshore and offshore gas fields from privately owned US oil and gas company LLOG Exploration Company LLC.

Three gas fields in the eastern Gulf of Mexico are currently producing and are close to Petsec's Main Pass and Mobile Bay gas fields.

Three onshore gas fields in Louisiana are currently producing and a fourth is expected to commence production late this year.

Under the agreement, Petsec will have a majority working interest in all but one of the fields and will become the operator of two of the three offshore and two of the four onshore fields.

The acquisition will be fully funded by a $US135 million ($A150 million) debt facility with Petsec's existing US financiers, Guaranty Bank.

The newly acquired assets have reserves of 36.2 billion cubic feet equivalent of gas, adding to Petsec's existing US reserves of 33.5 billion cubic feet equivalent of gas.

Oil and gas production from the newly acquired assets is expected to be nine to ten billion cubic feet equivalent of gas in the 2008 calendar year.

"Lease operating costs and continuing capital expenditure are expected to be below $US1.25 per million cubic feet, providing a comfortable profit margin considering the current 12 month strip gas price of around $US8 per million cubic feet," Petsec said.

Petsec expects the acquisition to settle early in November 2007 after meeting several standard conditions.

[Crypto Crude]

PSA had been in down trend for quite some time, and it wasnot until around May this year when it looked like a screaming buy that so many of us picked up on... I guess looking back I may have misunderstood how Petsec was effected by costs and insurance costs in the Gulf Of Mexico which hit the company because of hurricanes which carved a hole in this region back in 2005.....
rising costs can more than be offset by higher POO, POG...

I was personally putting people I know onto this stock back before August...
alittle bit of relief for me yesterday.... looks likely to be the start of a new uptrend...
.... cheap buying here under $2...
:cool:
.^sc

[bigd]

Don't know how to put a chart into a format that could be posted here, so no proof to back me up.

But....surely PSA has broken the long term downtrend this week finally, MoSteph. Certainly on my charting software I can't find a downtrend that hasn't been broken by this week's rally.

Happy to be proven wrong, however. (well... not happy really, but will put up with it if I have to)

[Phaedrus]

Bigd, you and MoSteph are talking about different things.

MoSteph is quite right when he says that PSA is still in a longterm (17 month) downtrend. See how it continues to make lower highs (green dots) and lower lows (red dots). That's a downtrend.

What you are looking at, Bigd, is a break of the longterm trendline. This was a confirmed trendline, so this is a Buy signal. The important question here is do any other indicators support this?

Take a look at the QStick indicator at the top of the chart. Notice that it has now moved into positive territory (above zero) for the first time since the downtrend began. This means that, on average, PSA is now having more Up days than Down days. Obviously this is Bullish.

Observe the Slow Stochastic oscillator. This looks at where the Close lies in relation to the High and Low prices. For the first time since the downtrend began, the average Close has risen above the halfway point between the average Low and the average High. Again, this is a significant Bullish indication.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PSA1012.gif

Red arrows mark SELL signals, green arrows BUY.

[Phaedrus]

I can see them all OK, AA.

Try hitting the "refresh" button.

[ELYOB]

There is still the old problems with PSA , and this has not changed with the recent developments . Instos dont like it , and this will not change . TF is one , and it is in his hands . He has to restructure the top management , and the share Register component .

I like this stock but see risk being caught with large capital tied up if DOW turns . PSA is a stock which will dive if the DOW goes down under the weight of underlying problems atm . PSA will be hit also by a US$ risk as well under such a scenerio.

Otherwise , looking forward to constructive analysis by those oil researchers ...

[Mick100]

There is still the old problems with PSA , and this has not changed with the recent developments . Instos dont like it , and this will not change . TF is one , and it is in his hands . He has to restructure the top management , and the share Register component .

I like this stock but see risk being caught with large capital tied up if DOW turns . PSA is a stock which will dive if the DOW goes down under the weight of underlying problems atm . PSA will be hit also by a US$ risk as well under such a scenerio.

Otherwise , looking forward to constructive analysis by those oil researchers ...

What a load of crap ELYOB
I would rate TF and his managment team right up there with the best in the business. That's what distinguishes PSA from the rest of the pack - top managment.

IF the insto's don't like PSA, it will be because of the fact that PSA has been in a downtrend and we all know that momentum investors don't like shares in downtrends.
.

[JBmurc]

Looks like PSA might have finally move out of its downtrend- $1.75 nice- $2 not far away

[shasta]

Looks like PSA might have finally move out of its downtrend- $1.75 nice- $2 not far away

Downtrend or not, stuff it ...any share with this much potential that trades at a 44% discount to its peers is worthy of a place in Shasta's portfolio (see page 31 of presentation)

http://www.petsec.com.au/doc/Presentations/070905GOCasx.pdf

JBMurc - I'm with you on this one & couldnt help myself today!

[shasta]

Downtrend or not, stuff it ...any share with this much potential that trades at a 44% discount to its peers is worthy of a place in Shasta's portfolio (see page 31 of presentation)

http://www.petsec.com.au/doc/Presentations/070905GOCasx.pdf

JBMurc - I'm with you on this one & couldnt help myself today!

Nice nudge today (up 16.5c to $1.935) on the back of the ann mentioning 5 of the 6 gas wells in the Gulf of Mexico are producing, with the last one due to be shortly...

Production levels etc to be announced when cleaned up...

Should glide thru $2 tomorrow & trigger all sorts of buy signals :D

[Phaedrus]

Should glide thru $2 tomorrow & trigger all sorts of buy signals :D

Nah - they all triggered weeks ago.
Take another look at the chart on page 1 of this thread.

[shasta]

Nah - they all triggered weeks ago.
Take another look at the chart on page 1 of this thread.

All of them?

Considering it's meant to have broken its longterm downtrend, no ones talking about it!

Perhaps now they will :D

[JBmurc]

Looking good for $2 today didn't take long with allthe good announcements of late and now well out of the down trend and onto a good uptrend believe it should keep running to the Analsyts val-2.70's very soon
will be buying more today BUY HIGH SELL HIGHER

[JBmurc]

I'm glad that PSA is my largest ASX shareholding on recent news- 80 Mill nett profit with growth explor. upside can't really ask for much more maybe some market att. $2 very soon IMHO

[shasta]

good bounce back from under $1.50 again recently and holding $1.68

still a good chance of $2 soon with lots of good news and cashflow coming online



holding PSA

shasta should be looking for another entry on weakness :-)

Oh he is, PSA is still extremely cheap IMO.

The fact its main assets are in the US means it tends to suffer more than most when the DOW takes a dive.

A great stock for 2008 & looking to re-enter as funds allow.

[Huang Chung]

Now a four star guru Shasta....well done.

[shasta]

Now a four star guru Shasta....well done.

Thanks i didnt notice it! :confused:

Actually thought it was a much higher number :eek:

HC - You holding any PSA?

Am holding just one O&G company (OEL) at present & leaving myself underweight in O&G, & PSA is my 2nd pick in the sector.

[Huang Chung]

HC - You holding any PSA?


No Shasta, no O&G in my extensive 4 stock portfolio. (PDZ, VML, HTI & EQX).

PDZ & VML are my make or break stocks....+90% of the portfolio's value. HTI & EQX are smaller holdings...lower confidence / belief as well.

No capacity to buy more at present unfortunately. To be brutally honest, the O&G sector is far too brutal and unforgiving for me to do anything more than dabble in O&G stocks. Besides that, I still have a lot to learn in understanding O&G technical reports.

Did very well out of AED, under my brokers guidance (and with a bit of guidance from Shrewdy as well)....but to see what's happened to them recently is just scary. NWE has also been treated harshly, despite all the talk about them only clipping AED's ticket and all of their other prospects. COE was looking good, until Friday at least.

I will be back in O&G stocks again no doubt, just not right now.

[JBmurc]

-With a forcast $80m net profit for 2008 Its hard to believe PSA is trading at $1.32 with a Market CAP alittle over -200m- China drilling underway- OIL&GAS still at great prices if only I had some spare funds

JBmurc-holds PSA

[yogi-in-oz]

-With a forcast $80m net profit for 2008 Its hard to believe PSA is trading at $1.32 with a Market CAP alittle over -200m- China drilling underway- OIL&GAS still at great prices if only I had some spare funds

JBmurc-holds PSA

:)

Hi folks,

PSA ... a significant and negative cycle today, should see us near the
August 2007 lows and over the next couple of months, PSA should
return to an uptrend, being particularly strong in March and April 2008:

24012008 ..... minor news for PSA, but major news about oil prices, generally.

04022008 ..... minor news

11022008 ..... positive for PSA, with oil prices being VERY STRONG

06-10032008 ..... minor news

12032008 ..... positive spotlight on PSA ... :)

28-31032008 ..... 2 cycles bring significant and positive news, may trigger
a strong rally.

1004-16062008 ..... should be a VERY POSITIVE period for PSA and especially
strong, in April 2008:

10-11042008 ..... 2 positive cycles

14042008 ..... 2 positive cycles and new expected here

23-24042008 ..... 4 positive cycles come together, so PSA should be BOOOMING ... !~!

28042008 ..... minor and positive news expected

12052008 ..... minor and positive light on PSA

16-19052008 ..... minor and positive cycle ..... finance-related ... ???

23-30052008 ..... very significant and negative news expected here,
offset by a positive aspect = flat trading for PSA ???

..... but, the best news about PSA, there will be another very strong period,
in November/December 2008.

More later .....

happy days

paul

:)

=====

[Mick100]

:)



23-24042008 ..... 4 positive cycles come together, so PSA should be BOOOMING ... !~!



:)

=====

Good work yogi

I believe in astro-stuff................when it suits me;)
.

[JBmurc]

well if you correct Yogi all these postives we'll have a $3 PSA soon

Also before in my post I said 80m nett profit -should be 80m nett operating cashflow (still looking at a recent Analyst report which they forecast PSA 50m-60m net operating cashflow in 08 and a 2.20 value excluding drilling upside)

[JBmurc]

Dec 4th qutr report out
Looks great IMHO
-Production up 143%
-Net revenue up 168% 30.1m AUD

- for the Year ended december 07

Production 8.1Bcfe
-Net revenue-64m US

Production in 08- is set to increase to 15Bcfe est 110-120mill net Revenue???????????

RECENT MARKET CAP 170mill

[shasta]

Dec 4th qutr report out
Looks great IMHO
-Production up 143%
-Net revenue up 168% 30.1m AUD

- for the Year ended december 07

Production 8.1Bcfe
-Net revenue-64m US

Production in 08- is set to increase to 15Bcfe est 110-120mill net Revenue???????????

RECENT MARKET CAP 170mill

Totally agree, PSA got hit harder than most, & now looks extremely cheap.

Looking to re-enter shortly...

[JBmurc]

-So cheap it just doesn't make sense but guess thats happening allround on the ASX.
But if they do make say 100mill nett next year at there current SP There P/E is what 2-3??? Must be more having there operations being based in the US which puts off investors or there past probs , Managerment etc
Hope Yogi right and PSA have a booming year $3+ sp

[JBmurc]

-hammered on bad result on first china drill 1.29

-I see Comsec were happy with the latest quarterly report and their valuation is now $3.57 now if only the market would not be so anti-small caps PSA could be fairly valued which IMHO will happen in time

[JBmurc]

Hi folks,

PSA ... a significant and negative cycle today, should see us near the
August 2007 lows and over the next couple of months, PSA should
return to an uptrend, being particularly strong in March and April 2008:

Good time to buy at current firesale prices if yogi's right 1.50-1.60+ april 08 i wait with 100k worth of PSA

[Corporate]

To those in the know, those who have an thorough understanding of PSA operations

Does anyone care to outline their understanding of PSA, and what it has going for it/ against it?

What downside risk is there?


Cheers

James

[JBmurc]

To those in the know, those who have an thorough understanding of PSA operations

Does anyone care to outline their understanding of PSA, and what it has going for it/ against it?

What downside risk is there?


Cheers

James

-From my point of veiw PSA

postives
-High US Gas prices currently over $9 PSA has high profit margins $5+
-High production of 15bcf in for 08
-low forward P/E
-Great assets most analyst value PSA assets well over $300million
-pently upside in near term exploration
-well undervalued comparable to other US operating companies

negatives
-dissapointing recent exploration results
-overall market sentiment toward PSA trust issues
-PSA uses USD as there functional currency USD vs AUD


Overall at current SP of $1 or less PSA has very little downside IMHO

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

PSA ... right now, it's only one week into March 08 and PSA is making
a V-bottom, so get set for a sharp rally off the lows ... here's how it
looks, from this end:

07-10032008 ..... minor news

12032008 ..... positive spotlight on PSA ...

28-31032008 ..... 2 cycles in play here, expecting positive news.

Will be alert for a very strong period for PSA, between 07-28042008,
with triggers expected, on:

11042008 ..... minor light on PSA

14042008 ..... minor news expected

23-24042008 ..... 4 positive cycles here ... major news expected
here ... new technology ???

28042008 ..... more positive news expected ...

12052008 ..... minor and positive aspect

16-19052008 ..... 2 positive cycles

23-30052008 ..... significant negative news expected here

..... but, the best news about PSA, there will be another very strong
period, in November/December 2008.

happy days

paul

:)

=====

[Mick100]

bought some more this week

I'm trying to get out of this habbit of buying into downtrends but there are times when I can't help myself:o

[shasta]

bought some more this week

I'm trying to get out of this habbit of buying into downtrends but there are times when I can't help myself:o

How much cheaper can PSA get?

I mean as a PRODUCER it's been hit much harder than most juniors!

Granted it's exposure to the US doesn't help, but the POO rising must be adding to the bottom line!

China is the bonus IMO.

Am looking closer & closer at re-entering myself

[JBmurc]

How much cheaper can PSA get?

I mean as a PRODUCER it's been hit much harder than most juniors!

Granted it's exposure to the US doesn't help, but the POO rising must be adding to the bottom line!

China is the bonus IMO.

Am looking closer & closer at re-entering myself

just wait to i buy my lot

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

PSA ... right now, it's only one week into March 08 and PSA is making
a V-bottom, so get set for a sharp rally off the lows ... here's how it
looks, from this end:

07-10032008 ..... minor news

12032008 ..... positive spotlight on PSA ...

28-31032008 ..... 2 cycles in play here, expecting positive news.

Will be alert for a very strong period for PSA, between 07-28042008,
with triggers expected, on:

11042008 ..... minor light on PSA

14042008 ..... minor news expected

23-24042008 ..... 4 positive cycles here ... major news expected
here ... new technology ???

28042008 ..... more positive news expected ...

12052008 ..... minor and positive aspect

16-19052008 ..... 2 positive cycles

23-30052008 ..... significant negative news expected here

..... but, the best news about PSA, there will be another very strong
period, in November/December 2008.

happy days

paul

:)

=====

:)

Hi folks,

PSA ..... candle count up to 9 consecutive down-days now, so should
see a bounce off the lows, this coming week ..... :)

Will be alert for traders setting an ambush, around 80 cents ... 270 cents
down from 10052006 high, at $3.50

Volume has been building slowly, as weak holders sell and market-timers
build positions, ahead of an anticipated blow-off low and positive PSA
cycles, this week.

Updated PSA chart, at:

http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/8/psaupdate07032008-1443933.pdf

have a great weekend

paul

:)

[JBmurc]

got another lot some 17000 at 84c will be buying more monday IMHO this is as low as we will ever see- US gas futures $10+ $$$$$$$$ to PSA large 08 production of 15BCFE planned say 40mmcf per day = at current GAS prices thats A$250,000 PER DAY NETT operting cashflow - PSA will make more money than QGC which has a market cap over 20 times larger ???

[Mick100]

got another lot some 17000 at 84c will be buying more monday IMHO this is as low as we will ever see- US gas futures $10+ as long as oils high $$$$$$$$ to PSA large 08 production

good buying murc

Agree, mid 80s should be the low for PSA

NAT GAS STOCKS ARE THE MOST UNDERVALUED STOCKS IN THE MARKET AT THE MOMENT

US gas inventories going down hard and fast at the moment

nat gas back up tp 14 - 15 $ within six months

[JBmurc]

Yeah at this stage I'm planning on having a holding close to 100,000 PSA shares early next week ,All I want for my 30th birthday is PSA to announce a major discovery at beibu gulf-- china next week

[tricha]

Hmm, a little bit of caution here, check out their bank debt.

Thats what put DLS into a tail spin, one dry hole and 28 million of debt.
That seems to be the go at the moment, debt = big problems.

AED same deal, a little bit of debt and the wolves are at your feet.

[JBmurc]

I think the dept PSA have would look alot worse had the GAS price headed downwards like previous years at this time -$5-$6 still with current prices and futures over $10 PSA will have all dept paid down very soon with high $5+ margins I think the major negative selling pressure which PSA has come under is more market driven by stoploss orders and short sellers over 1m ords short sold currently
If you take a close look at PSA charts your see it moves very quickly as DAY TRADERS seem to be able to pressure prices more easy still I'm more than happy to see PSA has a large amount shorted WHY because I believe these shorters will be fighting each other to get out pushing the sp back to 140-150 real quick on any decent news or fund buying

[Mick100]

Hmm, a little bit of caution here, check out their bank debt.

Thats what put DLS into a tail spin, one dry hole and 28 million of debt.
That seems to be the go at the moment, debt = big problems.

AED same deal, a little bit of debt and the wolves are at your feet.

debt/equity = 45/55%

NTA is 91c

The balance sheet looks solid enough to me

about 7 times interest cover, i think

The difference between PSA and DLS/AED is in the stability of revenue
PSA has been raking in the money and will continue to do so in the future

[shasta]

debt/equity = 45/55%

NTA is 91c

The balance sheet looks solid enough to me

about 7 times interest cover, i think

The difference between PSA and DLS/AED is in the stability of revenue
PSA has been raking in the money and will continue to do so in the future

PSA hitting an intra-day low of 75c, & currently sub 80c.

Wow, how much "cheaper" will this PRODUCER become? :eek:

[Corporate]

Amazing! Who is buying?

Don't really want to catch a falling knife though. Anyone care to predict the bottom?

[shasta]

Amazing! Who is buying?

Don't really want to catch a falling knife though. Anyone care to predict the bottom?

I'll say 75c was the bottom, & your opportunity to buy sub 80c will be "limited". (How's that for a jinx!)

Remember this stock has broker reports/valuations $2+ :eek:

Almost tempted to sell some of my beloved ADY to buy some PSA.

ASB Sec still has PSA on a 40% margin lending, hmm :rolleyes:

[JBmurc]

I would love to know when they do-- have got a truck full atm 115c av
- what shareholders would sell at 75c with 3 drills underway and 15bcfe planned for 08 something we don't know or just day traders short selling.

[Oiler]

I would love to know when they do-- have got a truck full atm 115c av
- what shareholders would sell at 75c with 3 drills underway and 15bcfe planned for 08 something we don't know or just day traders short selling.

JB we are in a crazy market with no rationale at all.

Happy to say I bought a 5k parcel in this puppy at 81c today. This is one of the only oilers that is actually producing and paying its way, which is a rarity. I am with you JB..... this little piggy will be back at the trough tomorrow and the next day while these prices prevail. :confused:

Oiler

[AMR]

Wow....PSA sub $1. I glanced over this casually a few weeks back and thought it looked ok. Fundamentally I like it too. This major downtrend however, is it simply due to the fact that it earns money in rapidly depreciating US dollars? Or something more sinister?

[Huang Chung]

Not following this one closely, but there seems to be a bit of a negative view of the stock on Sharescene.....you might like to have a squiz before you invest your hard earned.

[tricha]

Not following this one closely, but there seems to be a bit of a negative view of the stock on Sharescene.....you might like to have a squiz before you invest your hard earned.

Something is up Huang


They have debt of 90 odd million and if it is anything like the housing market in the US and it has matured.??? ..............

As we know no one is lending right now, u need to ask the company a few key questions.
Unfortunately Mr Market is a bad mood and is not taking prisioners at the moment.

[JBmurc]

Not following this one closely, but there seems to be a bit of a negative view of the stock on Sharescene.....you might like to have a squiz before you invest your hard earned.

-Yeah some unhappy holders on SS mostly PSA mangerment issues certainly worth reading give holders perspective pros an cons of PSA (Personal I'm more Postive at 80c less so 1.80 atm)

----http://www.petsec.com.au/doc/Presentations/080306NY_ASXscap_webcast.pdf

-I hope PSA shareholders have read up the lastest presentation from PSA

-from there 26% increase in revenue at 8.1bcfe for 07 and an outlook of 15bcfe-18bcfe we could well see PSA 08 revenue match there current Market CAP at 80c SP if the GAS prices play there part and stay well over $10mmcf for 08


-One thing I noticed that may have scared some holders was the purchase US reserves were quoted at 36bcf 2P where in the lastest presentation they have quoted 23.9bcf 1P reserves (1p proven 2p proven&probable)that and the fact that PSA hedged half of there next two yrs production at $8ish

[Mick100]

there are a lot of companies that will fall over on the asx before petsec does - talk of financial difficulties is pure and simple scaremongering - something that some people have been doing a lot of in the past couple of months



PETSEC ENERGY LTD
ACN 000 602 700

11 October 2007

US$110 million (A$122m.) acquisition to double
Petsec Energy’s USA oil & gas reserves and production

Petsec Energy Ltd (ASX: PSA; ADR’s: PSJEY.PK)
Australian oil and gas company, Petsec Energy Ltd, today announced a US$110 million (A$122 million) acquisition that will double reserves and production for the Sydney based company’s traditional USA operations in the Gulf of Mexico and onshore Louisiana.
The acquisition - which includes six producing gas fields and another gas field soon to be producing - will be fully debt funded and will provide immediate earnings growth for shareholders.
Petsec Energy said it had signed a binding agreement to purchase the package of onshore and offshore production assets from LLOG Exploration Company LLC, a privately owned US oil and gas company, for a total consideration of US$110 million on the effective date of 1 October 2007.
Assets to be Acquired

•Interests in three offshore producing gas fields in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, USA, being Main Pass 20 & 270 and Chandeleur 31/32. These fields are close to Petsec Energy’s Main Pass and Mobile Bay gas fields.
•
Interests in four onshore gas fields in Louisiana, USA, three of which are currently producing; the fourth is expected to commence production late this year.
Under the agreement, Petsec Energy will have a majority working interest in all but one of the fields and will become the operator of two of the three offshore and two of the four onshore fields.
Only one of the fields is subject to pre-emptive purchase rights.
Impact on Reserves & Production

•Acquiring independently assessed net proved & probable (2P) reserves of 36.2 Bcfe which will more than double Petsec Energy’s existing US reserves of 33.5 Bcfe (at 30 June 2007). Net proved (1P) reserves to be acquired are 24.8 Bcfe.
Level 13, Gold Fields House, 1 Alfred Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia PO Box R204, Royal Exchange NSW 1225, Australia Telephone (61 2) 9247 4605 Facsimile (61 2) 9251 2410 Company information is available on: petsec.com.au MM ED I A RREL E A S E

•Oil and gas production from the acquisition assets is expected to be 9 – 10 Bcfe in the 2008 calendar year, which will more than double expected production for 2008 from Petsec Energy’s existing US assets.
•
The purchase price equates to US$ 3.04 per Mcfe on independently assessed 2P reserves. Lease operating costs and continuing capex are anticipated to be below US$1.25 per Mcf, providing a comfortable profit margin considering the current 12 month strip gas price of around US$8 per Mcf.

Key Benefits & Rationale for Shareholders
The acquisition is consistent with Petsec Energy’s objective of delivering growth with a keen focus on financial returns, principally financed by internally generated cashflow. In part, the acquisition of these assets will:

•Immediately and substantially increase Petsec Energy’s earnings.
•
Significantly enhance the scale and efficiency of Petsec’s US operations.
•
Significantly reduce concentration risk as production will now be sourced from a larger number of oil and gas fields, both offshore and onshore.
•
Continue Petsec Energy’s growth within its existing area of expertise in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico shelf and onshore Louisiana.
Funding
The acquisition will be fully funded by a US$135 (A$150) million debt facility with Petsec Energy’s existing US financiers Guaranty Bank, together with Merrill Lynch Capital, secured by a charge over the company’s US operating subsidiary Petsec Energy Inc’s assets.
The US$135m debt facility is comprised of the following components:

•US$105m Senior Secured Credit Facility with a 3 year Revolving Facility of US$75m subject to a Borrowing Base and a $30m short term component to be amortised from cashflow within 5 months of drawdown.
•
US$30m Subordinated Term Facility repayable in the 4th year from drawdown.
Petsec Energy will proceed to reduce gas pricing risk by hedging approximately 50% of anticipated production over the next two years, over which time a majority of the debt incurred will be repaid.
Petsec Energy is currently debt free, and given the high levels of current and forecast production from the new assets, we forecast that the debt can be adequately serviced from internally generated cashflow. No new equity is required to complete the transaction.
Level 13, Gold Fields House, 1 Alfred Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia PO Box R204, Royal Exchange NSW 1225, Australia Telephone (61 2) 9247 4605 Facsimile (61 2) 9251 2410 Company information is available on: petsec.com.au MM E D I A RR E L E A S E
Timing
Petsec expects the acquisition to settle early in November 2007 after satisfaction of a number of conditions precedent normal in the industry, with net consideration (after adjustment for production to settlement date) expected to be approximately US$106 million.
Further details on the assets will be provided at the time the acquisition is settled.
CEO Comments
"This acquisition is a very positive transaction for Petsec Energy and its shareholders. It will substantially increase the scale, diversity and efficiency of our US exploration, development and production operations. Our US reserves and production will double leading to significantly increased earnings and a stronger platform to pursue our traditional exploration based reserves growth."

[tricha]

maybe you should disclose your position Paul

are you buying now?



Me' own a sml 3500 but also think the time has come. I looked at 95c again and pulled out. How low can this baby go?!


Ah, hit a nerve here Sector, how many more did u pick up, it's good to see you have answered the question about debt.;)

[JBmurc]

US GAS prices over $10 futures all over $10 till april 09
US markets down again
-which way will PSA trade today ? hopefully upwards on a good news ann.

[tricha]

there are a lot of companies that will fall over on the asx before petsec does - talk of financial difficulties is pure and simple scaremongering - something that some people have been doing a lot of in the past couple of months





PETSEC ENERGY LTD
ACN 000 602 700

11 October 2007

US$110 million (A$122m.) acquisition to double
Petsec Energy’s USA oil & gas reserves and production

Petsec Energy Ltd (ASX: PSA; ADR’s: PSJEY.PK)
Australian oil and gas company, Petsec Energy Ltd, today announced a US$110 million (A$122 million) acquisition that will double reserves and production for the Sydney based company’s traditional USA operations in the Gulf of Mexico and onshore Louisiana.
The acquisition - which includes six producing gas fields and another gas field soon to be producing - will be fully debt funded and will provide immediate earnings growth for shareholders.
Petsec Energy said it had signed a binding agreement to purchase the package of onshore and offshore production assets from LLOG Exploration Company LLC, a privately owned US oil and gas company, for a total consideration of US$110 million on the effective date of 1 October 2007.
Assets to be Acquired


•Interests in three offshore producing gas fields in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, USA, being Main Pass 20 & 270 and Chandeleur 31/32. These fields are close to Petsec Energy’s Main Pass and Mobile Bay gas fields.
•
Interests in four onshore gas fields in Louisiana, USA, three of which are currently producing; the fourth is expected to commence production late this year.
Under the agreement, Petsec Energy will have a majority working interest in all but one of the fields and will become the operator of two of the three offshore and two of the four onshore fields.
Only one of the fields is subject to pre-emptive purchase rights.
Impact on Reserves & Production


•Acquiring independently assessed net proved & probable (2P) reserves of 36.2 Bcfe which will more than double Petsec Energy’s existing US reserves of 33.5 Bcfe (at 30 June 2007). Net proved (1P) reserves to be acquired are 24.8 Bcfe.
Level 13, Gold Fields House, 1 Alfred Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia PO Box R204, Royal Exchange NSW 1225, Australia Telephone (61 2) 9247 4605 Facsimile (61 2) 9251 2410 Company information is available on: petsec.com.au MM ED I A RREL E A S E


•Oil and gas production from the acquisition assets is expected to be 9 – 10 Bcfe in the 2008 calendar year, which will more than double expected production for 2008 from Petsec Energy’s existing US assets.
•
The purchase price equates to US$ 3.04 per Mcfe on independently assessed 2P reserves. Lease operating costs and continuing capex are anticipated to be below US$1.25 per Mcf, providing a comfortable profit margin considering the current 12 month strip gas price of around US$8 per Mcf.

Key Benefits & Rationale for Shareholders
The acquisition is consistent with Petsec Energy’s objective of delivering growth with a keen focus on financial returns, principally financed by internally generated cashflow. In part, the acquisition of these assets will:

•Immediately and substantially increase Petsec Energy’s earnings.
•
Significantly enhance the scale and efficiency of Petsec’s US operations.
•
Significantly reduce concentration risk as production will now be sourced from a larger number of oil and gas fields, both offshore and onshore.
•
Continue Petsec Energy’s growth within its existing area of expertise in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico shelf and onshore Louisiana.
Funding
The acquisition will be fully funded by a US$135 (A$150) million debt facility with Petsec Energy’s existing US financiers Guaranty Bank, together with Merrill Lynch Capital, secured by a charge over the company’s US operating subsidiary Petsec Energy Inc’s assets.
The US$135m debt facility is comprised of the following components:

•US$105m Senior Secured Credit Facility with a 3 year Revolving Facility of US$75m subject to a Borrowing Base and a $30m short term component to be amortised from cashflow within 5 months of drawdown.
•
US$30m Subordinated Term Facility repayable in the 4th year from drawdown.
Petsec Energy will proceed to reduce gas pricing risk by hedging approximately 50% of anticipated production over the next two years, over which time a majority of the debt incurred will be repaid.
Petsec Energy is currently debt free, and given the high levels of current and forecast production from the new assets, we forecast that the debt can be adequately serviced from internally generated cashflow. No new equity is required to complete the transaction.
Level 13, Gold Fields House, 1 Alfred Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia PO Box R204, Royal Exchange NSW 1225, Australia Telephone (61 2) 9247 4605 Facsimile (61 2) 9251 2410 Company information is available on: petsec.com.au MM E D I A RR E L E A S E
Timing
Petsec expects the acquisition to settle early in November 2007 after satisfaction of a number of conditions precedent normal in the industry, with net consideration (after adjustment for production to settlement date) expected to be approximately US$106 million.
Further details on the assets will be provided at the time the acquisition is settled.
CEO Comments
"This acquisition is a very positive transaction for Petsec Energy and its shareholders. It will substantially increase the scale, diversity and efficiency of our US exploration, development and production operations. Our US reserves and production will double leading to significantly increased earnings and a stronger platform to pursue our traditional exploration based reserves growth."


I hope it flies for you Mick100 and the rest of you guys. Questions have to be asked and by your replies it looks a great buy.
Personally I'm gone back into my old dog ARQ, the come back race is on.
ARQ and PSA are both at bargin basement prices :D, but so was PEM I thought:( wrongly.

[JBmurc]

well can't see how yet another duster in china can be postive -YOGI-GAS prices were certainly postive overnight only real decent factor today-hoping the next 2 wells are better -not looking forward to tomorrow's sell-off or have we already seen that this week -inside knowledge major seller???


:)

Hi folks,

PSA ... a significant and negative cycle today, should see us near the
August 2007 lows and over the next couple of months, PSA should
return to an uptrend, being particularly strong in March and April 2008:

24012008 ..... minor news for PSA, but major news about oil prices, generally.

04022008 ..... minor news

11022008 ..... positive for PSA, with oil prices being VERY STRONG

06-10032008 ..... minor news

12032008 ..... positive spotlight on PSA ... :)

28-31032008 ..... 2 cycles bring significant and positive news, may trigger
a strong rally.

1004-16062008 ..... should be a VERY POSITIVE period for PSA and especially
strong, in April 2008:

10-11042008 ..... 2 positive cycles

14042008 ..... 2 positive cycles and new expected here

23-24042008 ..... 4 positive cycles come together, so PSA should be BOOOMING ... !~!

28042008 ..... minor and positive news expected

12052008 ..... minor and positive light on PSA

16-19052008 ..... minor and positive cycle ..... finance-related ... ???

23-30052008 ..... very significant and negative news expected here,
offset by a positive aspect = flat trading for PSA ???

..... but, the best news about PSA, there will be another very strong period,
in November/December 2008.

More later .....

happy days

paul

:)

=====

[JBmurc]

-48mmcf per day $$$$$ even with the hedges they be making well over $400,000 per day no reason gas prices won't go higher could well be closer to $500,000 pd soon

OPERATIONS UPDATE
Petsec Energy Ltd (ASX: PSA; ADRs: PSJEY.PK)
Strong start to 2008 Year
Year to date operational performance has been strong with 2008 production averaging
48 million cubic feet of gas per day. This production rate compares favourably with
the 2008 year production estimate of 15 Bcfe, which is an average of 41 million cubic
feet per day.
US gas prices are firm with Henry Hub spot prices of approximately US$10/Mcfe. This
compares with an average of US$7.93/Mcfe received by Petsec Energy for the 2007
year. The Company has sold forward the equivalent of about 7.5 Bcfe of gas in 2008
(half of forecast production) and 3.3 Bcfe in 2009 at an average price of US$8.26/Mcfe
with a further 2.9 Bcfe of protection by way of puts with a floor price of US$6.36/Mcfe,
net of premiums.
Total debt is currently US$84 million, down from US$104 million at year end. Only
US$4 million remains outstanding on the US$30 million first lien facility scheduled for
repayment in April 2008.
Current Drilling Activity
The Company is currently drilling two wells in the USA.
The Virginia Geason #1 well at the Moonshine Project, onshore Louisiana has
reached total depth and logging and testing operations are currently underway.
The West Cameron 379 well in the Gulf of Mexico, USA was spud on 4 March with
results expected late this month.
Petsec Energy Ltd is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company listed

[Corporate]

Today I did not check the market until now. I was quite amazed to see 73c! I'm glad I am totally cashed up at the moment, stocks are getting thrashed.

[shasta]

Today I did not check the market until now. I was quite amazed to see 73c! I'm glad I am totally cashed up at the moment, stocks are getting thrashed.

Ouch 73c, the day after a sucker rally, & PSA can't hold it's gains?

Any techie care to confirm the next support level?

Sub 70c tomorrow :confused:

I can't believe it's $1 less than when i got stopped out of, yet during that time they made an acquistion to DOUBLE production & reserves.

This really is a head scratcher IMO, even the O&G specs have held up better than PSA.

[tricha]

yep nice update JB

highlight being 20% higher than aquisition forecast

love that 48 vs 41.


youll be right mate, just load up on the current prices, and youll be under $1 soon ;)

U R a nice piece of work Sector, telling everyone to load up and u r still watching :rolleyes:

The debt question has been answered, but the debt still stands - the next question is - how long before their existing gas wells go into decline.:confused:

( Remember expensive dusters recently and mR MARKET taking no prisioners )

[tricha]

Answer the question or put your money where your mouth is :)

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

PSA ... right now, it's only one week into March 08 and PSA is making
a V-bottom, so get set for a sharp rally off the lows ... here's how it
looks, from this end:

07-10032008 ..... minor news

12032008 ..... positive spotlight on PSA ...

28-31032008 ..... 2 cycles in play here, expecting positive news.

Will be alert for a very strong period for PSA, between 07-28042008,
with triggers expected, on:

11042008 ..... minor light on PSA

14042008 ..... minor news expected

23-24042008 ..... 4 positive cycles here ... major news expected
here ... new technology ???

28042008 ..... more positive news expected ...

12052008 ..... minor and positive aspect

16-19052008 ..... 2 positive cycles

23-30052008 ..... significant negative news expected here

..... but, the best news about PSA, there will be another very strong
period, in November/December 2008.

happy days

paul

:)

=====

:)

Hi folks,

PSA ..... trading back up to 84 already, so it sure looks like yesterday was a blow-off low,
with the spike down on high volume ..... :)

So, buying in over the past couple of days was certainly better market timing than buying into PSA, when it was over $1.oo (and holding through the pain of a 25+% loss as well) !~!

have a great day

paul

:)

[JBmurc]

The current selling of PSA reminds me of AVM which was sold down on negatives even though most investors liked the fundenmentals of AVM and the future outlook of copper -PSA like AVM has great fundenmentals with gas prices like oil prices likely to stay solid and even go higher on larger withdraws-PSA only needs to make some decent success with the drill bit to increase reserves that and pay of there dept sooner to completely turn round the flagging SP
-And if the case is in sellers eyes that PSA is a dog and must be short sold what does that make the many doz ASX Gas producers etc top dog QGC 2.5billion marketcap which the market loves there cbm yet QGC don't produce or get paid anything near PSA 48mmcf $10 gas price PSA 125mill QGC 2.5billion ????????

[tricha]

U R a nice piece of work Sector, telling everyone to load up and u r still watching :rolleyes:

The debt question has been answered, but the debt still stands - the next question is - how long before their existing gas wells go into decline.:confused:

( Remember expensive dusters recently and mR MARKET taking no prisioners )


Whats the answer Sector, will the existing gas pay off their large debt :confused: Or R U just full of hot air.:D

[JBmurc]

Large debt???

Total debt on March 12th was $84m, down from $104m 31st DEC 07

only $4m of the first $30m facility remains to be paid before April 08.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080312/pdf/31806k922j66fq.pdf

so $26 million has been repaid in less than 5 months...and $20m paid off in less than 2 1/2 months.




now back to your disasters and meds Tony:D


Yep yet more facts for the very very unloved PSA another fact:PSA is producing more GAS per day than all of the US gas focused ASX jnrs combined workout the total Mktcap of these companies of -AZZ,STX,MAE,ADI,AUT.................. etc You don't have to be superstar investor to see PSA is looking ripe for a takeover Why? invest millions into exploring for GAS when you can Takeover PSA on the cheap

[JBmurc]

yeah by the look of yesterdays depth that and the US GAS price falling(to $9.1mmcf) I'd say I'll be holding another 20,000 mid 70's today -looking like theres some buyers using CFD short selling to pressure retail holders stoplosses (50% PSA held by retail investors)
All yesterday I watched big sell orders load up the 82c-86c range with really nothing on the bids till 76c-77c yet 90% shares brought were 79c+ I myself sold down 20,000 at 81c which was brought within minutes then yet again the buyers dissappared

some more facts on PSA -

-total operating expenses=$2.20mcf (PSA hedged 50% prod $8 for next 2yrs)

-from 02-07 PSA has had a 78% success rate with the drill bit

-from existing reserves PSA will still be producing over 12bcfe for 09-10 not counting any new discoverys(which I believe they have at Moonshine 5bcf+ 50%psa)

[Corporate]

PSA "poor shareprice again"?

69c finish, what a cliff drop last month or so

I am not picking the bottom now 70c has not held.


Drop due to todays annoucement i would have thought?

[Mick100]

I am not picking the bottom now 70c has not held.

There's nothing special about the 70c mark

The last support was in the mid 80s

there's some minor support in the mid 60s

Could go all the way to 20-30c from here but don't hold your breath
,

[Oiler]

PSA "poor shareprice again"?

69c finish, what a cliff drop last month or so

I am not picking the bottom now 70c has not held.

I am not picking the bottom either SS but having bought in at 75c I will continue to buy until the fundementals change. PSA must be a buy at this price :eek:

Certainly todays announcement didnt help.

[JBmurc]

MMMMM makes no sense to me 109BCFE of proven&probe reserves 69c per share

maybe it more about Tommorrow (thursday 20/3) is the last day of trading with PSA in the ASX300. Assuming that some funds are liquidating their positions due to exit from ASX300, hopefully the exit will bring liquidation selling to an end.

just checkout alot of companies in the ASX300 compared to PSA's fundenmentals madness

[Crypto Crude]

Im beside myself with value stocks...
Petsec is undervalued... theres no doubt about that...
Im just alittle concerned that in the current market cycle that markets care little for great stocks with debt....
and sometimes care little for great oilers with no debt...
PSA has the biggest exposure to Natural gas prices on the ASX for it's respective market cap...
Man, it must be destiny... Looks like I maybe the next Sharetrader to line up for PSA and Im beside myself knowing what to do....:confused:

we got TEX trading at 14.5c .... BUR alittle over 10c.... PSA under 70c....
I wouldnot mind having a play on NWE for the Cobra drill, 14.5c....
I donot have a major problem with a bear market...
I do have a problem with awesome stocks that have been hammered....
I guess little Norwest's fall is warranted... the others are ridiculous....
...Im now scared to tip any dammn stock off after I said on one of the threads to pretty much buy PSA at 90cents...
Austins got my biggest holdings....
mackdunks PEM has fallen from big heights to $1...
His AGS used to be something like 3-4 times the SP of AGM...
and now AGM is higher...
City Pacific was trading at many dollars....
CNP.... PRE now well below 3c... AUZ.... TRS has fallen 50% this week...:D...
I could go on and on....
Dudes... Please contain yourselves in what could be described as a kid in a candy store... pretty much what I am, but Im cautious and more focused on picking up the bears Crap when this is all over... (arbitrage post)
The FED is running out of idea's now... almost given back all of yesterdays
run... I heard that the FED has taken on so much exposure to the Sub Prime through bailouts etc, that its balance sheet is now 50% sub Prime... In MAY a big tax rebate is coming in the US...
At some time there will become a point when the FED will just have to step aside and let markets do what markets got to do...
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

PSA definately undervalued...
im just not sure if that means anything any more...
:(
.^sc

[shasta]

Im beside myself with value stocks...
Petsec is undervalued... theres no doubt about that...
Im just alittle concerned that in the current market cycle that markets care little for great stocks with debt....
and sometimes care little for great oilers with no debt...
PSA has the biggest exposure to Natural gas prices on the ASX for it's respective market cap...
Man, it must be destiny... Looks like I maybe the next Sharetrader to line up for PSA and Im beside myself knowing what to do....:confused:

we got TEX trading at 14.5c .... BUR alittle over 10c.... PSA under 70c....
I wouldnot mind having a play on NWE for the Cobra drill, 14.5c....
I donot have a major problem with a bear market...
I do have a problem with awesome stocks that have been hammered....
I guess little Norwest's fall is warranted... the others are ridiculous....
...Im now scared to tip any dammn stock off after I said on one of the threads to pretty much buy PSA at 90cents...
Austins got my biggest holdings....
mackdunks PEM has fallen from big heights to $1...
His AGS used to be something like 3-4 times the SP of AGM...
and now AGM is higher...
City Pacific was trading at many dollars....
CNP.... PRE now well below 3c... AUZ.... TRS has fallen 50% this week...:D...
I could go on and on....
Dudes... Please contain yourselves in what could be described as a kid in a candy store... pretty much what I am, but Im cautious and more focused on picking up the bears Crap when this is all over... (arbitrage post)
The FED is running out of idea's now... almost given back all of yesterdays
run... I heard that the FED has taken on so much exposure to the Sub Prime through bailouts etc, that its balance sheet is now 50% sub Prime... In MAY a big tax rebate is coming in the US...
At some time there will become a point when the FED will just have to step aside and let markets do what markets got to do...
:cool:
.^sc

Shrewd

There are so many "undervalued" oilers on the ASX it just aint funny.

PSA's debt was to double there reserves & production in the US, & they got the acquistion at a very "good" price.

PSA tends to get hit harder than most, through its exposure to the US & its Chinese assets haven't come good yet.

IMO, PSA is probably the most undervalued O&G company at present.

Cant believe i got stopped out around $1.70, when i see it sub 70c now?

[Crypto Crude]

shasta,
I like Petsec's China sea Assets...
Block 22/12, Beibu Gulf


from 4th quarter next year seven vertical wells will be drilled with first production expected to start in 1st quarter 2010...
flow rates are expected to be between 20,000 – 25,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd).
this will be a standalone development project...
using downhole electric submersible pumps and there will be no water injection.... this project will produce the goods, the recent drilling was an attempt to make this a whole lot better but was not meant to be...
The drill they just backed out of had the highest chance of success and flowed at 3000BOPD off memory...
:cool:
.^sc

[yogi-in-oz]

Posted 17012008:

Hi folks,

PSA ... a significant and negative cycle today, should see us near the
August 2007 lows and over the next couple of months, PSA should
return to an uptrend, being particularly strong in March and April 2008:

24012008 ..... minor news for PSA, but major news about oil prices, generally.

04022008 ..... minor news

11022008 ..... positive for PSA, with oil prices being VERY STRONG

06-10032008 ..... minor news

12032008 ..... positive spotlight on PSA ... :)

28-31032008 ..... 2 cycles bring significant and positive news, may trigger
a strong rally.

1004-16062008 ..... should be a VERY POSITIVE period for PSA and especially
strong, in April 2008:

10-11042008 ..... 2 positive cycles

14042008 ..... 2 positive cycles and new expected here

23-24042008 ..... 4 positive cycles come together, so PSA should be BOOOMING ... !~!

28042008 ..... minor and positive news expected

12052008 ..... minor and positive light on PSA

16-19052008 ..... minor and positive cycle ..... finance-related ... ???

23-30052008 ..... very significant and negative news expected here,
offset by a positive aspect = flat trading for PSA ???

..... but, the best news about PSA, there will be another very strong period,
in November/December 2008.

More later .....

happy days

paul


=====

:)

Hi folks,

PSA ..... last two trading days have been dojis, which also
confirmed the morning star low, made on 20032008 ..... :)

..... back to higher volume today, as well .....

..... chart looking good now, setting us up for the 2 positive time cycles
expected over the next few trading days (see post above) ... !~!

happy days

paul

P.S. ...... holding PSA .....

:)

=====

[yogi-in-oz]

Posted 17012008:

Hi folks,

PSA ... a significant and negative cycle today, should see us near the
August 2007 lows and over the next couple of months, PSA should
return to an uptrend, being particularly strong in March and April 2008:


1004-16062008 ..... should be a VERY POSITIVE period for PSA and especially
strong, in April 2008:

10-11042008 ..... 2 positive cycles

14042008 ..... 2 positive cycles and new expected here

23-24042008 ..... 4 positive cycles come together, so PSA should be BOOOMING ... !~!

28042008 ..... minor and positive news expected

12052008 ..... minor and positive light on PSA

16-19052008 ..... minor and positive cycle ..... finance-related ... ???

23-30052008 ..... very significant and negative news expected here,
offset by a positive aspect = flat trading for PSA ???

..... but, the best news about PSA, there will be another very strong period,
in November/December 2008.

More later .....

happy days

paul

:)

=====

:)

Hi folks,

PSA ..... finished up 11% today .... so looking good. ahead of the next round
of positive cycles, as posted on 17012008 and detailed above ..... :)

have a great weekend

paul

:)

=====

[COLIN]

Today looked like the day when PSA begins its resurrection in earnest. So I took the plunge towards the end of the day and bought a few (at 77) but only half my order was filled as the price just kept pressing on upwards, to above 80. I don't have the charts to prove it but I feel that the renaissance is a genuine movement, given the strong buying interest at the close.

[COLIN]

Was also pleased to see that PSA was not on the list of shares held by the ANZ (as supplied today) so no overhang to worry about there.

[JBmurc]

--certainly seen the bottom IMHO should trend back above $1 soon and get closer to fair value on the back of the strong US gas prices which like oil look likely to keep high $10+
we should see PSA make ann. on there massive cashflows to Mrktcap soon.................. time for the shorters to burn.........................
-got me another 5000 at 77c

[AMR]

Any fundamental news updates? Techie wise it's not up to much...still waiting for that close above 81c.

[tricha]

Any fundamental news updates? Techie wise it's not up to much...still waiting for that close above 81c.

The big question, will they be able to substain cash flow to pay the debt and then have money left in the bank to pay a dividend.:confused:
.................................................. ................................................


First Quarter Report
for the period ended 31 March 2008

Key Points for Quarter

 Production was 28% higher than the previous quarter reflecting the contribution of the Mobile
Bay gas fields and the production assets acquired in November 2007.

 Production: 4.4 Bcfe up 28%.

 Net Revenue: US$38.5 million (A$42.4 million) up 44%.

 EBITDAX: US$32.1 million (A$35.4 million) up 51%.

 Average sales price received: US$8.77/Mcfe up 13%.

 Net Debt: US$54.0 million, down 30% from US$76.8m at 31 December 2007.

[JBmurc]

-IMHO with PSA having current reserves for a future production yearly of 15bcfe ,12bcfe,12bcfe,10bcfe,etc.................falling away majorly after 2011 unless PSA makes more Discoverys.
-If you view the history of US GAS futures currently the prices should be at there yearly low atm that is currently 10.70 once the summer heat gets well underway and demand increases more from domesic supply as imports of GAS are dropping to the US from huge overseas demand, US gas prices should be trading in the mid teens at there peaks this year IMHO with only more demand in future(if you compare the old GAS:OIL ratio 1:6 US GAS should really be round $20)

-I think we'll see most of the dept paid before the end of 09.

-Divies unlikely- buy IPM NZO they paid good divies for jnr oilers

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Posted 17012008:

Hi folks,

PSA ...

23-24042008 ..... 4 positive cycles come together, so PSA should be BOOOMING ... !~!

28042008 ..... minor and positive news expected

12052008 ..... minor and positive light on PSA

16-19052008 ..... minor and positive cycle ..... finance-related ... ???

23-30052008 ..... very significant and negative news expected here,
offset by a positive aspect = flat trading for PSA ???

..... but, the best news about PSA, there will be another very strong period,
in November/December 2008.

More later .....

happy days

paul

:)

=====

:)


Hi folks,

PSA ..... news comes in, right on time ... :)

"Petsec awarded two new leases Gulf of Mexico USA"

..... let's see, if the market likes it ... !~!

have a great weekend

paul

:)

[tricha]

-IMHO with PSA having current reserves for a future production yearly of 15bcfe ,12bcfe,12bcfe,10bcfe,etc.................falling away majorly after 2011 unless PSA makes more Discoverys.
-If you view the history of US GAS futures currently the prices should be at there yearly low atm that is currently 10.70 once the summer heat gets well underway and demand increases more from domesic supply as imports of GAS are dropping to the US from huge overseas demand, US gas prices should be trading in the mid teens at there peaks this year IMHO with only more demand in future(if you compare the old GAS:OIL ratio 1:6 US GAS should really be round $20)

-I think we'll see most of the dept paid before the end of 09.

-Divies unlikely- buy IPM NZO they paid good divies for jnr oilers

Bought into this one JB on the quartely report, can not see any downside, only upside, to pay off nearly a third of debt this quarter is impressive, if gas prices increase, debt should be gone in two quarters.;)

[tricha]

Report Says Crude Oil Will Hit $225 a Barrel in 2012
By The Canadian Press
24 Apr 2008 at 04:49 PM GMT-04:00

CALGARY (CP) -- According to a forecast from CIBC World Markets, tighter supplies will drive crude oil over US$150 a barrel by 2010 and to US$225 a barrel in four years.
At CIBC World Markets, chief economist Jeff Rubin - one of the first to predict $100-a-barrel oil, which he did three years ago - updated a forecast he issued in January saying oil would hit US$150 a barrel within four years, raising that projected price by US$75.

Rubin said his group has “re-examined our projected supply increases” to discount expected rises in production of natural gas liquids, which he said account for virtually all the growth in global petroleum liquids production since 2005.
Gas liquids, “while valuable hydrocarbons, are not a viable substitute for oil and cannot be economically used as a feedstock for gasoline, diesel or jet fuel,” the new report says.
“Stripping out natural gas liquids, oil production has not grown for over two years, which certainly goes a long way to explaining why oil prices have doubled over that period,” Rubin said.
“Whether we have already seen the peak in world oil production remains to be seen, but it is increasingly clear that the outlook for oil supply signals a period of unprecedented scarcity.”
At Scotiabank, the overall commodity index has climbed 181.2% from its cyclical low in October 2001 - a stronger advance than the surge between 1972 and mid-1978. The Bank of Nova Scotia's commodity price index jumped by 5% during March to its third record high in as many months.
That report shows that rising energy costs - caused in part by soaring demand for oil from Asia and worries about supply reductions - will continue to drag down the economy.
“The oil and gas index soared by 11.8% in March, climbing above its previous peak in October 2005, and will rise further in April,” said Scotiabank economist Patricia Mohr.
Oil and mineral prices posted new highs in March, and crude oil has continued booming to a record of US$119.90 per barrel Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Thursday, crude prices hovered around $115.
“Recent news that Russian oil production dropped by 0.9% in the first quarter of 2008, the first year-over-year decline in a decade, set off another wave of concern over supplies to meet growing emerging-market demand,” Mohr said.
National average gasoline prices, now about C$1.23 a litre, will top C$1.40 a litre this summer and C$2.25 by 2012, according to the report.
In the United States, pump prices of regular gas jumped 2.3 cents Thursday to US$3.556 a gallon - or 93 cents US a litre - according to a survey of stations by AAA and the Oil Price Information Service.
North American gas prices have risen sharply in recent days partly because refiners have been switching over from selling winter grade gasoline to the more expensive but less polluting form of the fuel the government requires them to sell in the summer. That process, which made winter grade fuel more scarce, is nearly complete now, suggesting that price increases could slow.
“That was probably why... you saw (prices) accelerate so quickly,” said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service in Wall, N.J. “No, don't get used to these crazy increases.”
© The Canadian Press 2008

[macduffy]

Bought into this one JB on the quartely report, can not see any downside, only upside, to pay off nearly a third of debt this quarter is impressive, if gas prices increase, debt should be gone in two quarters.;)

Hi tricha

I like the look of PSA and have been doing a bit of reading on the co. A lot of negative comments on another forum, particularly re management.
I believe a lot of their future production has been sold forward at significantly lower prices than those current. Have you taken this into account?

:)

[tricha]

yeah by the look of yesterdays depth that and the US GAS price falling(to $9.1mmcf) I'd say I'll be holding another 20,000 mid 70's today -looking like theres some buyers using CFD short selling to pressure retail holders stoplosses (50% PSA held by retail investors)
All yesterday I watched big sell orders load up the 82c-86c range with really nothing on the bids till 76c-77c yet 90% shares brought were 79c+ I myself sold down 20,000 at 81c which was brought within minutes then yet again the buyers dissappared

some more facts on PSA -

-total operating expenses=$2.20mcf (PSA hedged 50% prod $8 for next 2yrs)

-from 02-07 PSA has had a 78% success rate with the drill bit

-from existing reserves PSA will still be producing over 12bcfe for 09-10 not counting any new discoverys(which I believe they have at Moonshine 5bcf+ 50%psa)

I have Macduffy, thanks for pointing it out though, leave no stone unturned.

[tricha]

Hi tricha

I like the look of PSA and have been doing a bit of reading on the co. A lot of negative comments on another forum, particularly re management.
I believe a lot of their future production has been sold forward at significantly lower prices than those current. Have you taken this into account?

:)

Oh I was one of them Macduffy, asked a lot of negitive questions, the quarterly convinced me they should do the business and Mr Market is this very unforgiving and very bad mood :eek:, has over sold them.

To pay off debt, 30% or 23 million for the quarter is quite impressive and with 50% of their gas at much higher prices, all going well, should be debt free in 6 monthes ( one gone = 5 actual )

[macduffy]

Well, I " did my own research " and took a small position yesterday, largely on the price/prospects for US gas.
Some interesting brokers' reports on the PSA website, not always entirely favourable to the company. One by Fosterbroking, a broker I'd not heard of, was particularly insightful although a couple of months old now. They have a 12 month target of $1-64 on PSA, for whatever brokers' price targets are worth.

;)

[macduffy]

Nice move this morning - up 7%!
;)
Can't believe my luck.

[macduffy]

It gets better. Now up 14% today.
It is of course the AGM today, which is one of the reasons that I bought yesterday.
Company has also announced that its Virginia Geason No1 well, onshore Louisiana, flowed 3 MMCFD gas and 70 BCPD condensate per day. They hope to have it in production in 2-3 months.

;)

[COLIN]

It gets better. Now up 14% today.

Company has also announced that its Virginia Geason No1 well, onshore Louisiana, flowed 3 MMCFD gas and 70 BCPD condensate per day. They hope to have it in production in 2-3 months.

;)

Yes, seems good news, but I am not skilled enough to understand how relatively significant 3 million cubic feet of gas per day, on a 13/64 choke, is? And what reserves does this field hold?
Is this Yogi's "minor and positive news"?

[yogi-in-oz]

Posted 17012008:

Hi folks,

PSA ... a significant and negative cycle today, should see us near the
August 2007 lows and over the next couple of months, PSA should
return to an uptrend, being particularly strong in March and April 2008:

24012008 ..... minor news for PSA, but major news about oil prices, generally.

04022008 ..... minor news

11022008 ..... positive for PSA, with oil prices being VERY STRONG

06-10032008 ..... minor news

12032008 ..... positive spotlight on PSA ... :)

28-31032008 ..... 2 cycles bring significant and positive news, may trigger
a strong rally.

1004-16062008 ..... should be a VERY POSITIVE period for PSA and especially
strong, in April 2008:

10-11042008 ..... 2 positive cycles

14042008 ..... 2 positive cycles and new expected here

23-24042008 ..... 4 positive cycles come together, so PSA should be BOOOMING ... !~!

28042008 ..... minor and positive news expected

12052008 ..... minor and positive light on PSA

16-19052008 ..... minor and positive cycle ..... finance-related ... ???

23-30052008 ..... very significant and negative news expected here,
offset by a positive aspect = flat trading for PSA ???

..... but, the best news about PSA, there will be another very strong period,
in November/December 2008.

More later .....

happy days

paul

=====

:)

Hi folks,

So, much for the skeptix ... too bad, they are not on PSA !~!

Payday is right on time .... and as per previous post, there's
more positive cycle to come, over the next few weeks ... :)

28042008 ... more positive news expected ... right on time !~!

12052008 ..... minor and positive aspect

16-19052008 ..... 2 positive cycles

23-30052008 ..... significant negative news expected here

..... but, the best news about PSA, there will be another very strong
period, in November/December 2008.

happy days

paul

:)

===

[AMR]

A breakout day on good volume. I finally bought in, let's hope this rally has legs.

[macduffy]

Yes, seems good news, but I am not skilled enough to understand how relatively significant 3 million cubic feet of gas per day, on a 13/64 choke, is? And what reserves does this field hold?
Is this Yogi's "minor and positive news"?

No word on reserves at this stage but a poster on another forum reckons the gas will be worth US$25,000 per day to PSA.
Does anyone have a view on this?

[JBmurc]

This is great news for PSA IMHO have only just had a look but with there current flow-rate of 45mmcfd an extra 3mmcfd will add nicely to the bottom line and most importantly give the moonshine area some decent cred for futher investment PSA has not real reason not to be trading back above $1 fairvalue $1.50 (gutted I sold down PSA longs for CTX longs 10k bye bye)

[macduffy]

PSA up another 10% today to 92c ! Presumably on the strength of the ORG activity.

;)

[tricha]

PSA up another 10% today to 92c ! Presumably on the strength of the ORG activity.

;)

Maybe a bit of realization that they were oversold;) and cheap.

[AMR]

Big jump in OBV over the last few days, maybe everyone was hanging around the sidelines and simply waiting for a breakout? A nice co where fundamentals and technicals agree.

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

So, much for the skeptix ... too bad, they are not on PSA !~!

Payday is right on time .... and as per previous post, there's
more positive cycles to come, over the next few weeks ... :)

28042008 ... more positive news expected ... right on time !~!

12052008 ..... minor and positive aspect

16-19052008 ..... 2 positive cycles

23-30052008 ..... significant negative news expected here

..... but, the best news about PSA, there will be another very strong
period, in November/December 2008.

happy days

paul

:)

===

:)

Hi folks,

PSA ... up another 7% today ... makes this move look good, with
more positive cycles to come, this month ... see details above ..... :)

have a great weekend

paul

:)

=====

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi folks,

So, much for the skeptix ... too bad, they are not on PSA !~!

Payday is right on time .... and as per previous post, there's
more positive cycle to come, over the next few weeks ... :)

28042008 ... more positive news expected ... right on time !~!

12052008 ..... minor and positive aspect

16-19052008 ..... 2 positive cycles

23-30052008 ..... significant negative news expected here

..... but, the best news about PSA, there will be another very strong
period, in November/December 2008.

happy days

paul

===

:)

Hi folks,

PSA ..... ticking up nicely now ..... up another 6% so far, today ... :)

..... see post above for more positive cycles expected, next week.

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

[AMR]

Was yesterday the capitulation? I'm not good at identifying euphoria/capitulation, but the OBV seems pretty bad and not typical of a normal pullback to resistance.

[yogi-in-oz]

Posted 17012008:

Hi folks,

PSA ... time cycle analysis:

12052008 ..... minor and positive light on PSA

16-19052008 ..... minor and positive cycle ..... finance-related ... ???

23-30052008 ..... very significant and negative news expected here,
offset by a positive aspect = flat trading for PSA ???

..... but, the best news about PSA, there will be another very strong period,
in November/December 2008.

More later .....

happy days

paul

:)

=====

:)

Hi folks,

PSA ..... positive move comes in, right on time ... :)

Up more than 12%, today ..... thank you, Lord !~!

have a great weekend

paul

:)

=====

[macduffy]

minor?? +12% hmm
no news either, certainly not finance related




just a bit of luck wouldnt you say;)

I don't understand it but I can use plenty of this kind of luck!

Up 16% at last count!

;)

[AMR]

Excellent, a breakout above resistance!

Just a feeling I've been getting, but does it seem like this stock seems to get pushed around a lot by the big boys?

[Oiler]

Im putting some money a side for this one, When the 20 day WMA crosses the 100 EMA, im loading up.

should be a nice run.

AA

AA I hope you dont miss the boat by waiting ....... fundamentally this co has great potential

Oiler

[AMR]

Thanks for showing us your setup. Here's how I entered.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture.php?albumid=5&pictureid=8

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

So, much for the skeptix ... too bad, they are not on PSA !~!

Payday is right on time .... and as per previous post, there's
more positive cycle to come, over the next few weeks ... :)

28042008 ... more positive news expected ... right on time !~!

12052008 ..... minor and positive aspect

16-19052008 ..... 2 positive cycles

23-30052008 ..... significant negative news expected here

..... but, the best news about PSA, there will be another very strong
period, in November/December 2008.

happy days

paul

:)

===

:)

Hi folks,

PSA ..... figure it must be a leaky play on China, as HZN
and ROC also gained today, but no apparent news, as yet ... :)

have a great weekend

paul

:)

=====

[AMR]

oh no, I would have only considered raising my stop to 90 after that big rally yesterday ended the retracement.

yes, this was the one reversal pattern I've taken. All my other entries into OEL and PRC were all continuation patterns i.e a resumption of trend after conssolidation.

[AMR]

Wow, what an open! I should have bought more on yesterday's break of the previous high.

Time to start figuring where to trail my stops.

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

So, much for the skeptix ... too bad, they are not on PSA !~!

Payday is right on time .... and as per previous post, there's
more positive cycle to come, over the next few weeks ... :)

28042008 ... more positive news expected ..... right on time !~!

12052008 ..... minor and positive aspect

16-19052008 ..... 2 positive cycles ..... right on time !~!

23-30052008 ..... significant negative news expected here

..... but, the best news about PSA, there will be another very strong
period, in November/December 2008.

happy days

paul

:)

===

:)

Hi folks,

PSA ... sure has been a good ride and still no news, as yet ... !~!

..... buy the rumour and sell the news, maybe ... ???

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

[AMR]

Where is the bad news...?

The Ides of May are upon us...

Anyway, today is the start of a PRIMARY uptrend. The long term downtrend line at 118 was broken.

[AMR]

Where is the bad news...?

The Ides of May are upon us...

Anyway, today is the start of a PRIMARY uptrend. The long term downtrend line at 118 was broken.

Nope...it whipsawed right back and bounced hard.

[AMR]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture.php?albumid=5&pictureid=15
It broke my tentative trendline and the 20 day EMA today. Still above the support of the previous high, but it does sting when a stock goes down 10% in a day. I will probably sell if it breaks 100 on the close.

I'm finding this stock really hard to chart. It's incredibly volatile! The OBV also looks quite weak.

[yogi-in-oz]

Posted 17012008:

Hi folks,

PSA ... a significant and negative cycle today, should see us near the
August 2007 lows and over the next couple of months, PSA should
return to an uptrend, being particularly strong in March and April 2008:

24012008 ..... minor news for PSA, but major news about oil prices, generally.

04022008 ..... minor news

11022008 ..... positive for PSA, with oil prices being VERY STRONG

06-10032008 ..... minor news

12032008 ..... positive spotlight on PSA ... :)

28-31032008 ..... 2 cycles bring significant and positive news, may trigger
a strong rally.

1004-16062008 ..... should be a VERY POSITIVE period for PSA and especially
strong, in April 2008:

10-11042008 ..... 2 positive cycles

14042008 ..... 2 positive cycles and new expected here

23-24042008 ..... 4 positive cycles come together, so PSA should be BOOOMING ... !~!

28042008 ..... minor and positive news expected

12052008 ..... minor and positive light on PSA

16-19052008 ..... minor and positive cycle ..... finance-related ... ???

23-30052008 ..... very significant and negative news expected here,
offset by a positive aspect = flat trading for PSA ???

..... but, the best news about PSA, there will be another very strong period,
in November/December 2008.

More later .....

happy days

paul

=====

:)

Hi folks,

PSA ..... and the selloff comes in, right on time ... will update PSA cycles later,
closer to our next anticipated entry ..... :)

have a great weekend

paul

:)

=====

[yogi-in-oz]

"23-30052008 ..... very significant and negative news expected here,
offset by a positive aspect = flat trading for PSA ???"

flat trading? and no news



:)

Hi underdog,

..... yeah, yeah, yeah ..... we have heard it all before.

PSA ..... if you bothered to look at the chart, you would see that PSA made its recent
highs on 23052008 ... and from then until 29052008 has traded in a narrow range, with
the sharp drop coming on 30052008 ... maybe we did not get the negative news, but
the PSA market has certainly reacted, as if it received some ..... !~!


..... knowing when to bail out is just as important as our entries, if we are to
maximize our profits.

have a great weekend

paul

:)

=====

Maybe

[AMR]

It must be a sign of distress when shareholders are on the forum deciding what to do half an hour from the close!:D:D:D

I thought I could see a bit of a bull flag forming, with the three falling peaks. Volume today has dried up too, maybe it's due for a bounce? There's some resistance around 100-102.

The hardest thing about holding this share is watching LNC and BOW fly past while your capital is stuck going backwards. It's been a good trade for me entering at 83.5 just a month back, but the opportunity cost is killing me!:mad:

[AMR]

Some panicky sellers now...Limit bids are getting filled as soon as they appear almost.

[AMR]

What am I doing...I'm out, better gains in CSG.

[AMR]

Well I guess I can't complain, +22% in a month is still good by most standards. I still think this company is undervalued on a fundamental basis and will be back in like a hawk when the buyers return, when the downtrend line is broken. I think I might have sold the bottom, clearly there is strong support at 100-102. I was probably a bit too emotionally attached to this trade as well. Ah well, not bad for my first ASX trade.

[AMR]

I think I might have taken it off for the wrong reasons AA, a combination of fear and greed. I was looking at the depth of market and I saw bids being absolutely hammered in the closing 20 minutes. (Even though looking at depth of market is not a skill of mine nor was it part of my plan.)

Before ASX I had put on a few trades on the NZX, I caught a falling knife in FPH, before employing TA and buying NZO and PRC. Did some CFDs and blew up big time on the Hang Seng, but I've made a bit of a comeback lately on forex.

[AMR]

I think a lack of volume was the whole issue. OBV never really moved much.

Maybe the answer was staring us in the face the whole time. The gap up to 110 should have given the stock new momentum but it kinda blew up. Perhaps an exhaustion gap?

[AMR]

is this looking like a good trade from 80c again? sell 99c

:rolleyes:
I know they are well hedged, but about 1/2 production is at spot no?


$13!!!

valuations of PSAs reserves were done at $6.50 and they still valued the company at nearly $2.

Great minds think alike :)

A good base down at 75c or so..this latest drop was due to triple play finding nothing. Unfortunately all my cash is tied up right now, but I am considering re-entering.

[JBmurc]

will for sure test $1 in july once the Tax-loss selling ends this week 75c-80c would be nice price as Nat Gas has the legs to reach $15 this yr

[tricha]

Great minds think alike :)

A good base down at 75c or so..this latest drop was due to triple play finding nothing. Unfortunately all my cash is tied up right now, but I am considering re-entering.

WELL, the quarter was not much to write home about, production down, hedging killed the increase in gas price, drilling results poor and the market hammered it and rightly so, with 41 million debt still hanging over their heads.

I bet u r glad u did not re-enter AMR, I am certainly glad I did not.


http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PSA&E=ASX&N=513396

[JBmurc]

yeah not the best still you couldn't say PSA was pricely at 69c P/E-5 110m Mktcap


Personal I'd like see them sell there Beibu Gulf JV and pay off most if not all of their dept now,then get out of the hedges and focus on their many good tenaments with the drill bit current marketplace hates dept but loves postives drilling results


No longer holding but would re-enter at this levels once funds become ava.

[AMR]

I'm really not sure how good their tenament in the GoM is. It seems all their targets are piss tiny and end up providing gas for the next three months of production or so. They need to find an elephant.

[JBmurc]

The GOM has a long history in the exploration and production of
hydrocarbons. An extensive ready-made exploration, development and production
infrastructure allows for strong operating margins of ~70%.

can't see PSA ever drilling a muti -TCF target in the GOM just to many large cap oil companies in the area to allow a small cap Aussie Oiler to get in on any prime spots
still if PSA can sling together a few 10bcf-20bcf discovery's ever year for a ongoing increasing reserve base,keep production above 12bcf per yr + reduce dept&hedges there no reason IMHO why PSA SP can't be back well over $2 on the back of increasing US Gas prices

[shasta]

Debt was reduced by
U$16.575 million in the quarter

Market cap $106m


so this company can afford to pay back debt at a rate of approx 70% of its market cap per year

and people are worried about it



I give up

PSA
huge buy in 60s.

I hadn't realised PSA dropped through the 80's again, good god. :confused:

There debt was to double reserves & production!

Back on close watch ;)

[macduffy]

As a relatively new shareholder to PSA it seems to me that the market is concerned about operational problems restricting production, inability to increase reserves from GOM tenements, delays in Beibu Gulf, hedges taking the gloss off high gas prices.
I listened to the Boardroom Radio webcast and thought it all sounded a bit downbeat, but at least the company isn't over-promising anything! It all seems to hinge on BG getting underway and PSA are very much dependent on the Chinese for this. BG has to fit into the priorities of a bigger picture but I reckon it will happen sooner or later.

;)

[JBmurc]

$41m debt

6 months ago it was $100m (approx)

they are carrying the final debt from the acquisition, that was obvious and well stated
They will now get the cash rolling from that gamble which has paid off.


before the acquisition, debt was almost non existant. I dont see what all the fuss about over PSAs debt which is OBVIOUSLY well in hand


JB, cant believe youre out!!! you had a few

Yeah sold out my shares for a nasty loss for a 85c av put the funds into STX and some into my CFD to take a long on PSA which I sold for a small profit missed out on the $1+ short term bounce
--PSA really is just yet another great company thats been hugely undervalued in the short term I'm confindent STX will make back my losses in PSA at which point I will sell down some STX and buy back into PSA which personal is still a great longer term play

[shasta]

Some support around the mid 60's?

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/psa_ax_price_daily23jul02_to_09oct0.png

AA

More good news & the share price drop to 63c!

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PSA&E=ASX&N=514054

[AMR]

Now that I look at it again, it does look like a massive 3 year head and shoulders pattern.

I hope no one here still holds!

[JBmurc]

Now that I look at it again, it does look like a massive 3 year head and shoulders pattern.

I hope no one here still holds!

I thought selling in the 80's was wrong timing still I think US Nat gas prices should firm a base round $9 which should help the fall in PSA SP as been the main driver of weakness in the US based asx oilers ,crazy when you think W.A gas prices are high in AUS at $7.50

[ELYOB]

Any O&G stock with debt is going to be punished ! Not good having all that debt atm . And PSA is not paying it off very fast is a big negative . Getting what it deserves...nothing exciting for punters to risk this stock now .

[AMR]

Wilson HTM have retained the buy recommendation but lowered their price target to 1.10. A 2 (or is it 3?) bagger potential but a fair bit of negativity on that other channel.

[JBmurc]

re PSA debt

just listened to the last presentation
Net Debt $41m (so cash on hand currently must be $17m)

Debt from Nov 07 acquisition was $104 reduced to $58m as at July

thats a $46m reduction in less than 10 months!! If thats not paying it off fast - what is.




time for a move north in PSA
got to be good for a trade soon?

-certainly can't fall much more well no more than 43.5c
would seem to be great buying atm if you keen to hold for while

[shasta]

-certainly can't fall much more well no more than 43.5c
would seem to be great buying atm if you keen to hold for while

PSA @ 45c seems a tad lashed for a producer?

Might be worth a trade at these levels?

[macduffy]

PSA last traded at 41c ! Being trashed like so many other small O and G companies. The difference is that this one is actually producing and expects a cash flow of $85-$100m for 2008!
I finally got around to listening to the Enercom presentation of 12 August. SP then was 56c, trading at a 60% discount to the average of 5 brokers' valuations. I think from memory the average valuation of the USA reserves alone was a net $1-10 per share after deducting debt.
So I'm looking to add a few when/if the downtrend turns up.
Beibu Gulf is of course the big unknown in the sense of whether or not the Chinese will approve development. Any ideas out there as to their attitude in this regard, ie are they likely to want to produce now or to keep their own production in reserve while oil is readily available from other sources? Any recent evidence either way?

:)

[AMR]

There was a post in Sharescene or one of the others which said that production from Beibu gulf was likely to be less than initially predicted (based on the more recent ROC presentations).

I notice that several brokerages have downgraded PSA. (Not downgraded as such, but reduced the price targets while retaining a buy recommendation. Sounds like a downgrade to me!)

[ELYOB]

The problem with this stock is risk . Will history potentially repeat itself . We are riding into the past with no idea whats ahead . It would have helped if PSA had some significant oil production to cover .

[JBmurc]

I still believe PSA should sell out of their Beibu gulf interests use the funds on the sale to pay down debt and stay focused on increasing US Gas Reserves

12-14bcfe production 08/09 is massive for a 65 mill Mrkt cap- energy stock
-- market sentiment towards PSA is as bad as it gets any good news via a discovery,takeover etc well rerate PSA back to $1 quick smart as for downside I really can't see how PSA could fall much more low 40's is bargin IMHO

[tricha]

I still believe PSA should sell out of their Beibu gulf interests use the funds on the sale to pay down debt and stay focused on increasing US Gas Reserves

12-14bcfe production 08/09 is massive for a 65 mill Mrkt cap- energy stock
-- market sentiment towards PSA is as bad as it gets any good news via a discovery,takeover etc well rerate PSA back to $1 quick smart as for downside I really can't see how PSA could fall much more low 40's is bargin IMHO

ELYOB - "The problem with this stock is risk . Will history potentially repeat itself . We are riding into the past with no idea whats ahead . It would have helped if PSA had some significant oil production to cover "

I'd have to agree with ElYOB on this one JB, their debt is coming down slowly now, their drill bits are finding not much.
But if u like a gamble, one stike and u r back to $1.00 as u say JB.
Toss that coin :p

[shasta]

ELYOB - "The problem with this stock is risk . Will history potentially repeat itself . We are riding into the past with no idea whats ahead . It would have helped if PSA had some significant oil production to cover "

I'd have to agree with ElYOB on this one JB, their debt is coming down slowly now, their drill bits are finding not much.
But if u like a gamble, one stike and u r back to $1.00 as u say JB.
Toss that coin :p

PSA's 6 month results certainly belies it's SP performance!

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PSA&E=ASX&N=518153

[JBmurc]

well time will tell -personal see PSA as a prime takeover target with 12-14bcf this year 55.5Bcfe in reserves
Nett dept down 46% to 41mill with more to be paid down next qtr

-Operating cashflow for the 2008 year is still expected to exceed US$85 million

-Strong 2nd half cashflows
In the second half of 2008, the Company’s strong cashflows will be applied to continued debt reduction, to building our working capital position in
readiness for a strategic acquisition, and for further exploration which, if successful, could have substantive value uplift for the Company.
Production guidance for the 2008 calendar year is 13-14 Bcfe (up from 8.1 Bcfe in 2007) which is expected to generate more than US$85 million of cashflow

-PSA does certainly need a better exploration results over the next 6 months IMHO sell out of Beibu Gulf use funds to buy some more cheap reserves in the US or just reduce dept and focus on more exploration eitherway PSA hasn't much downside at theses levels

[tricha]

well time will tell -personal see PSA as a prime takeover target with 12-14bcf this year 55.5Bcfe in reserves
Nett dept down 46% to 41mill with more to be paid down next qtr

-Operating cashflow for the 2008 year is still expected to exceed US$85 million

-Strong 2nd half cashflows
In the second half of 2008, the Company’s strong cashflows will be applied to continued debt reduction, to building our working capital position in
readiness for a strategic acquisition, and for further exploration which, if successful, could have substantive value uplift for the Company.
Production guidance for the 2008 calendar year is 13-14 Bcfe (up from 8.1 Bcfe in 2007) which is expected to generate more than US$85 million of cashflow

-PSA does certainly need a better exploration results over the next 6 months IMHO sell out of Beibu Gulf use funds to buy some more cheap reserves in the US or just reduce dept and focus on more exploration eitherway PSA hasn't much downside at theses levels

This is a crazy, crazy market JB - Anyone with debt in this crazy market still has downside, just look at PPP with no debt, cash, oil and downside.
I think this is a market that cash should be king and debt, tread carefully.
A market ruled by fear. :o

I'd stick PSA into the gambling section, toss that coin. Typical of most oilers, one hole can change the whole perception in an instant.


4. Liquidity

The group’s liquidity remains sound notwithstanding the 30 June 2008 position with current assets of US$48.1 million and current liabilities of US$79.6
million.

[macduffy]

A bit of good news for PSA yesterday at the Good Oil Conference when USA Operations President commented that Petsec assets were unharmed from Hurricane Gustav.

:)

[shasta]

A bit of good news for PSA yesterday at the Good Oil Conference when USA Operations President commented that Petsec assets were unharmed from Hurricane Gustav.

:)

Lets not jump the gun though...:confused:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PSA&E=ASX&N=519661

[ELYOB]

IKE is coming next week , this could be bad for PSA in lost production and damage possibly .... could help gas prices though in the medium term ...

[AMR]

How's the price of gas holding up?

[macduffy]

PSA hedged around 45% at $8-9 from memory

That 45% may in fact turn out to be a rather higher chunk of actual production. Currently producing a bit less than 50% of November 2007 output.

;)

[JBmurc]

We all know Oil&gas compaines are getting well oversold

personal think PSA has got to be an absolute steal atm

-with hegding in place at $8 cashflows will continue to paydown dept
-US Gas price have hit their bottom and should trend upwards from here
-Northern hemi winter predicted to be colder than average
-production of 27mmcfpd +new discovery at miles makes PSA total value a joke also futher production is being brough back on-line as we speak ..another ann. soon should show this


PSA Market value-@25c $38,000,000

PSA est. cashflows- for 08/09 $70,000,000+

-I see PSA would have to rise 1000% to just make it back its SharePrice of 2 yrs ago


-JBMURC -buying back into PSA

[JBmurc]

glad to have brought up PSA on the cheap yesterday at 26c up 20% at one stage during the day

[JBmurc]

glad to have brought up PSA on the cheap yesterday at 26c up 20% at one stage during the day

glad to have taking the profits at 30c got back in at 23.5 yesterday I here there's a winter blast likely for the US East coast,Nat GAS likley to be under buying pressure again soon.PSA likely to hit 30c again today :) is crazyly cheap atm

[ELYOB]

The risk culture in the USA is a worry . It is not the stock ie:PSA but the crazy investors riding around on credit drugs investing in oilers there . Many oilers are suffering from sizeable shareholders getting the cash squeeze and forced to sell quick, putting a big hole in the wall . So a low share price atm is the fear of this happening any time . The massive rally in the DOW last night 900 pts is window dressing . Althought there is lots of money on the sidelines , the above risk factor of the credit cowboys is around .

[JBmurc]

Yes Margin calls on PSA has been a major downward driver of the SP I myself had to sell my long CFD in PSA yesterday as my CFD provider MAN decided the margin should be 70% rather than the 35% it was the day before when I took on the long contract so was forced to sell or front up with more cash straight away bloodly tossers could have gave their CFD users some warning and as I had quite a large position their was no profit to be made on these very low trading volumes
Still if CXC gets up today I might sell down some to load up on PSA sub 25c 100% min gain before the yrs out

[tricha]

http://www.petsec.com.au/doc/Analyst&PressReleases/081024_PSA_Cashisflowing.pdf



;)


Just shows u how good these guys R :rolleyes:


52 week high $ 1.94
52 week low $ 0.44
Current price $ 0.30

[AMR]

They've been saying buy buy buy all the way down. PSA is a trading stock not an investment. I got in at 83.5 out at 102...but wow it has fallen a fair bit.

[Crypto Crude]

thanks for the link under dog...
Most notably, is the massive blow out of Beibu Gulf (china Sea) first production targets... wow... now back a further year...
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

They've been saying buy buy buy all the way down. PSA is a trading stock not an investment. I got in at 83.5 out at 102...but wow it has fallen a fair bit.

Absolutely AMR, anything with debt in this market have to be treated with extreme caution.
ADY is another sad case, they just sold their soul to the devil, to repay debt. :(

[macduffy]

you just dont even get close to getting it do you Tricha

comparing PSA to ADY, I mean would you please read the debt repayment since aquisition and pace of repayment or just go away would be much nore useful.


PSA up nearly 60% in a few days/ and our PPP goes nowhere.

Quite so, uDOG.

PSA is steadily paying down debt, even managed to reduce it during the Sept quarter when a lot of production was curtailed by hurricane shutdowns and damage.

On the SP, it's fair to say that PPP didn't get sold down as savagely as PSA which, despite its recent big rise, still has a long way to go to recover to anywhere near its 52 week high.

[SCHUMACHER]

mixed feelings about PSA ....obviously Tricias point about debt is synonimous with the current market situation...............look at PNA , they have 230million + of short term debt and their shareprice has dropped dramatically.(The slowing economy wont help, nor will the price of copper and other base metals ATM)...............PSA are paying debt as they go which is good , and especially since the previous quarter was hit with problems (hurricanes ,damage etc)

the key for companies such as PNA and PSA is that they reduce debt as fast as the money comes in............thats KEY in todays climate............However there is good and bad debt...........debt secured to increase production to improve profitability is GOOD DEBT IMHO as long as the debt can be repaid quickly.......................

The cliche saying in the market right now that "CASH IS KING" is all people can think about, so if the word DEBT is mentioned, everyone freaks out...............its important to understand the amount of debt and the payback periods as long term debt in a slowing economy is very dangerous unless the profitability is amazing.............cheers SCHU

On the chart front, there is a gap left at 41c from 29/9/08 so that will need to be filled at some stage.....shareprice has been in a long term downtrend since may 2008 so not too exciting on the chart front.........highest price achieved after the gap left at 41c was 39.5c

Yesterdays close at 33c was a good start , I bought at 31c yesterday and sold on the highs 33c for a quick trade....only because i dont like to hold overnite these days
DOW down at the close today only around 50 points..........risky times thus sharp minds will prevail.........

good luck
SCHU

[SCHUMACHER]

oops.....forgot to mention the gap left at 29.5c on 31 october...............i think once this gets filled we will have a run up ....so expect it to drift back and close gap unless of course there is news in the pipeline..........i would prefer gas.......lol

And if your not a chartist then ignore my comments

cheers SCHU

[JBmurc]

PSA up 35% since your comment in 2 days:D another 12% today

as usual tony, your timing is impeccable:cool:

Well for once my timing of late was spot-on with PSA buying at 23.5c couple days back up 57% atm might have to take some more profits soon :)

[AMR]

Might not even have to wait until the end of the year JB!

AA, are you watching this thread as well?

I'm tempted to jump in myself on the next pullback but I remember being absolutely terrified by the volatility last time round.

[tricha]

PSA up 35% since your comment in 2 days:D another 12% today

as usual tony, your timing is impeccable:cool:

U R so righteous Sector Surfer :rolleyes:

15-08-2008, 02:33 PM

" re

time for a move north in PSA
got to be good for a trade soon? "

Sound familiar :confused:

[JBmurc]

I'm not chart expert but looks if PSA can break through 40c and hold it --the 80c range would be the most likely next resistance point.
with PSA at 37c atm could trade within a 31c-39c range till US GAS price increase under winter demands then IMHO 40c will break easy
I may take profit at the higher part of this range to buy back in the lower part soon 57% has been quite a run

[shasta]

Haha yes I am lol

I'm only buying ASX300 at the moment,
Bit of resistance up ahead for PSA now.

You will want to clear that first.

I like to get in early these days due to risk/reward ratios, usually the same day or a day after a volume spike.

In my opinion PSA is ready to pull back now.

You could buy the break of any resistance or buy the pull back.

I purchased MGX and SFH Today to add to my current active trades AAX,PLA,MIN,ERH and SRL.

I'm trailing tight.

AA

AA

have a look at ESG ;)

[tricha]

thats colourFUL coming from you dear

when you do understand the diffence between ADY and PSA then come back with some reasoned comment

otherwise you are wasting bandwidth here:D

Would u like me to go back another month or two ;)

[JBmurc]

Pently reasons for PSA to smash throught the 40c resistance level today :)

looking at the DEC 08 Nat Gas futures which are up to $7.23 also chart wise looks very much like PSA chart with $8.50 next targeted GAs price now it's smashed through its short term trading range

Also world markets up strongly
an Aussie dropped interest rates great for all ASX

[JBmurc]

AA

have a look at ESG ;)

Man ESG V's PSA makes PSA look very very cheap

John campbell -just did a great write-up on the two

PSA-up 14% My PSA holding up 80% :)

Nat Gas prices going up

a para from JC's Weekly---

Petsec should have the bulk of its debt paid off by June next year. It is not
planning any exploration activity for the remainder of 2008 so more cash can
be directed to debt repayment. And it still has 10 mmcf a day of production to
come back on line after the shut in caused by hurricane activity in the GOM
in August/September. That would take production to 35 -37 mmcf a day.

[SCHUMACHER]

Indeed PSA...is not a bad play at this stage.........well oversold , in line with market conditions but will be one of the first stocks to fly given a chance if the market sparks again......GAS is still a good commodity to be in short med and long if the productions costs are low enough....i think PSA costs are under tight control so its a case of increased production and away we go...........i did sell earlier in the week at 33c to lock in profits but bought back in at 33c so i may just have to sit and wait..........on the debt front , it is relatively short term payback based on prodcution achievement so 2009 should be ok for PSA and hopefully enable them to regain some of the heavy losses incurred this year..........hard to believe it peaked in december 2006 at $2.50 ...........december 2007 $1.93c and reached a closing high of $1.64 in janurary 2008......Wonder what it will be in december 2008????? lol .cheers SCHU


lets say a 23% drop each year so $2.50 -23% = $1.93(dec 2007 price)

$1.93 -23% =$1.44 fro december 2008........haha.....i must be bored......time for a drink after all its friday.......cheers SCHU

[tricha]

Indeed PSA...is not a bad play at this stage.........well oversold , in line with market conditions but will be one of the first stocks to fly given a chance if the market sparks again......GAS is still a good commodity to be in short med and long if the productions costs are low enough....i think PSA costs are under tight control so its a case of increased production and away we go...........i did sell earlier in the week at 33c to lock in profits but bought back in at 33c so i may just have to sit and wait..........on the debt front , it is relatively short term payback based on prodcution achievement so 2009 should be ok for PSA and hopefully enable them to regain some of the heavy losses incurred this year..........hard to believe it peaked in december 2006 at $2.50 ...........december 2007 $1.93c and reached a closing high of $1.64 in janurary 2008......Wonder what it will be in december 2008????? lol .cheers SCHU


lets say a 23% drop each year so $2.50 -23% = $1.93(dec 2007 price)

$1.93 -23% =$1.44 fro december 2008........haha.....i must be bored......time for a drink after all its friday.......cheers SCHU

PSA the ideal trading stock, but not for the faint hearted I guess.

[tricha]

PSA up 35% since your comment in 2 days:D another 12% today

as usual tony, your timing is impeccable:cool:

Hey Underdog did u take the candy and run , or are u left holding the baby :confused:

[tricha]

you just dont even get close to getting it do you Tricha

comparing PSA to ADY, I mean would you please read the debt repayment since aquisition and pace of repayment or just go away would be much nore useful.


PSA up nearly 60% in a few days/ and our PPP goes nowhere.

I see u have sold PPP, bad haircut day, PTR -, TOE -, MTH - and PTS and AIV no suckers.

[tricha]

on the turps are we my mapua mad muppett:D

yeah magic pumpkins :p

[SCHUMACHER]

good to see PSA in the green again today.....lets hope we can revisit 40c and beyond.....cheers SCHU

[SCHUMACHER]

PSA ..... from our time cycle analysis, we will be expecting some
positive news/moves this month, around 13-14112008, 18112008,
26-28112008 and 01122008, in particular .....

taken from another site

[Corporate]

So for people that have follwed/owned PSA - what went wrong? WHy has the price continuted to drop for the last 2+ years?

[tricha]

PSA up 35% since your comment in 2 days:D another 12% today

as usual tony, your timing is impeccable:cool:

Hey Underdog, " was it a good trade or r u holding the baby :confused: "

Remembering debt is lethal :eek:

[AMR]

So for people that have follwed/owned PSA - what went wrong? WHy has the price continuted to drop for the last 2+ years?

I don't do fundamentals but I think their acreage is crap...they'll never get their target drilling small wells for 5bcf a pop. Even bearing this in mind they're cheap as...makes PPP look expensive.

PSA was a one night stand for me, quick in quick out with a countertrend trade.

[SCHUMACHER]

UNDERDOG....ive bought twice- first time at 31c and sold and then at 31.5 and sold at 32c on friday

I cant seem to see past a trade at a time these days with the state of the markets.....when there is market stability i will stay in longer but when you have a situation with more than 2 quarters of negative growth there is no point in holding .....when the market shows 2 quarters of solid growth then its the right time to go long....enjoy your sunday!

cheers SCHU

[tricha]

I can tell you its been a lot more fun than holding that PPP dog for 2 months.


WELL, u must like living life on the edge, just like SCH - "I cant seem to see past a trade at a time these days with the state of the markets....."

ive bought twice- first time at 31c and sold and then at 31.5 and sold at 32c on friday

I'll stick with AMR's observations on PSA, and they have debt and debt is Toxic, in this market.

AMR - "I don't do fundamentals but I think their acreage is crap...they'll never get their target drilling small wells for 5bcf a pop. Even bearing this in mind they're cheap as...makes PPP look expensive.

PSA was a one night stand for me, quick in quick out with a countertrend trade. "

[JBmurc]

Holding both STX PSA which will do well with futher Gas price gains Big drop in 5yr Surplus should be more once the big freeze hit the US



Natural Gas Rises as U.S. Inventories Drop More Than Expected
Email | Print | A A A

By Reg Curren

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas futures in New York advanced after a government report showed a larger-than-forecast drop in U.S. stockpiles.

Inventories declined 66 billion cubic feet in the week ended Nov. 21 to 3.422 trillion cubic feet, the U.S. Energy Department said. Analysts forecast a withdrawal of 45 billion cubic feet. Stockpiles tend to fall during the cold-weather months as demand for the heating fuel exceeds production and imports.

“The heating season is going to trump a lot of this economic weakness concern,” said Chris Jarvis, president of Caprock Risk Management LLC in Hampton Falls, New Hampshire. “If we get a cold winter, regardless of where we are in the economy, I could see a pretty bullish scenario for gas.”

Natural gas for January delivery rose 25.3 cents, or 4 percent, to $6.639 per million British thermal units at 12:18 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas was trading at $6.40 before the report was released at noon.

The surplus to the five-year average declined to 109 billion cubic feet from 140 billion the previous week, report showed.

The supply figures were issued a day earlier than normal because of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow.

Below-normal temperatures are expected to cover the U.S. from Chicago to New York starting Dec. 1 and last until Dec. 5, according to forecaster MDA Federal Inc.’s EarthSat Energy Weather in Rockville, Maryland. About 72 percent of households in the Midwest rely on gas for heat.

Utilities and storage companies typically build up reserves of the fuel between April and early November in preparation for peak demand during the winter months.

[tricha]

Originally Posted by tricha http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=233568#post233568)
Hey Underdog, " was it a good trade or r u holding the baby :confused: "

Remembering debt is lethal :eek:





I can tell you its been a lot more fun than holding that PPP dog for 2 months.

Hmm, would u like to re-quote this :confused: OR HAVE U changed your view on which is a dog.

[shasta]

Originally Posted by tricha http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=233568#post233568)
Hey Underdog, " was it a good trade or r u holding the baby :confused: "

Remembering debt is lethal :eek:






Hmm, would u like to re-quote this :confused: OR HAVE U changed your view on which is a dog.

Not too sure the dog will be barking back this time Tricha :D

Keep an eye on PSA as the US freezes this winter...

PS, Congrads on the Guru status ;)

[AMR]

The UDog is already back Shasta lol hes pretty sly,but hopefully will give Tricha and the others members a little breather now.

PSA isn't it just amazing to see this company come to this, sad really sad.

PSA has become a Dog
PSA once a company in the lime light amazing how the tide flows in and out, Companies run in Price cycles and for this one the tide is now running out.

I personally Speculate Oil and Gas is Priming itself for a good return, for Long Term Portfolios regular accumulation of this sector now is a great retirement approach to compounding appreciation.

Congratulations Tricha on your new Guru Status. :)

AA


Yes and what a dog. I remember the two of us reassuring each other over these forums about the great fundamentals of the company while deciding whether to sell.

Took a look back at the chart and realised the small uptrend we tried to snatch profits from was really a tiny blip in the middle of a massive 4 year movement.

We really should have gone short instead shouldn't we?

[shasta]

Yes and what a dog. I remember the two of us reassuring each other over these forums about the great fundamentals of the company while deciding whether to sell.

Took a look back at the chart and realised the small uptrend we tried to snatch profits from was really a tiny blip in the middle of a massive 4 year movement.

We really should have gone short instead shouldn't we?

It was about this time last year i was stopped out of PSA @ $1.70 :rolleyes:

Is PSA really that bad, i read a presentation a while back showing PSA had daily gas production equivalent to 7000 bopd (can't recall which presentation it was, maybe CVN?).

But, being in the US has always meant it gets it in the neck whenever things go south

[tricha]

Thanks guys, guru status, hmm.

I just wish things were 2 years ago, how things have changed for the worse and no end in sight. :(

The difference between PSA and PPP.

Like chalk and cheese.

One has toxic debt and one has mountains of cash.

And with the price of energy being so low, debt could equal death.

[tricha]

Petsec trades at a discount to its debt, but its
operating cash flow comfortably covers servicing costs, so any bank would be crazy to
rock that boat, however Petsec may have a problem raising an additional $70 million to
support its Beibu Gulf equity

[tricha]

Thanks guys, guru status, hmm.

I just wish things were 2 years ago, how things have changed for the worse and no end in sight. :(

The difference between PSA and PPP.

Like chalk and cheese.

One has toxic debt and one has mountains of cash.

And with the price of energy being so low, debt could equal death.

Chalk and Cheese

Originally Posted by tricha http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=233568#post233568)
Hey Underdog, " was it a good trade or r u holding the baby :confused: "

Remembering debt is lethal :eek:

[JBmurc]

Petsec Energy (PSA)
Cash is flowing!
Still a net cash generator!
Despite reduced production following ‘shut ins’ caused by Hurricanes,Gustav and Ike, PSA still generated net cash of US$ 2.1m after allowing for capital expenditure of US$ 6.6m.
Beibu Gulf delayed further. Development approval is still pending and CommSec now expects project approval by June 2009 with first production expected in June 2011.
While this has reduced CommSec’s NPV, the delay in capital spending puts PSA in a very strong cash position.

Valuation and recommendation
CommSec’s valuation of PSA is $1.71 per share, of which 80c, or 4x times the current share price, is current operations, net of debt and corporate costs.
CommSec retains a BUY / OUT PERFORM recommendation on PSA.

[Phaedrus]

CommSec’s valuation of PSA is $1.71 per share.........
CommSec retains a BUY / OUT PERFORM recommendation on PSA.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/PSA1216.gif

WOW! When did CommSec come out with those two clangers JB?
PSA plummeting from $3.40 to less than 19 cents in just 30 months makes it a fiasco of some magnitude. It certainly has outperformed!

It makes good sense to steer well clear of downtrending stocks, although there were a few opportunities for short-term trades on the way down. Technically, there is as yet no sign that the ongoing downtrend is running out of steam - PSA was off another 2.6% today.

Just another illustration of the credibility gap between brokers fundamental "valuations" and the harsh reality of the market.

[JBmurc]

late oct 08 ---Chart certainly looks terrible as does 90% of the OIL&GAS sector NZO & PPP some of the only ones that have held-up resonable well still don't think that means PSA is overpriced at sub 20c

review by its banker, Guaranty Bank, the company’s borrowing base under its Revolving Credit Facility has been increased from US$39 million to US$53 million as at 1 December 2008. The borrowing base has monthly reductions of US$2 million.
The amount currently drawn under the Revolving Credit Facility is US$20.8 million. A further US$8.4 million is utilised to support letters of credit for MMS bonding purposes. The facility matures in November 2010.
In addition to the above facility, the company has a fully drawn US$30 million Term Loan Facility which matures in 2011.

[SCHUMACHER]

I dont want to mislead anyone here but PSA have secured funding in a tough market....thats KEY
secondly they are going into winter demand which will help spot prices......they are reducing debt which shows the market they can come back.......the key going forward is to ensure operations are under control and we have maximum energy output.....this is all being achieved thus i put a short term price target of 25c on PSA...oversold on the charts so a small rally is inevitable going into the busiest season for them REGARDS Schu

[SCHUMACHER]

In this note, CommSec shows that PSA will generate, over the 15 months to December 2009, net cash greater than its current Enterprise Value.
CommSec believes that the highest value use for this cash is for PSA to start an on-market share buy-back.
Also, PSA has expanded its Board, from three to four by adding Mark Harvey, a third generation Texan oil man who has started up three oil and gas companies that he has subsequently sold.

[JBmurc]

In this note, CommSec shows that PSA will generate, over the 15 months to December 2009, net cash greater than its current Enterprise Value.
CommSec believes that the highest value use for this cash is for PSA to start an on-market share buy-back.
Also, PSA has expanded its Board, from three to four by adding Mark Harvey, a third generation Texan oil man who has started up three oil and gas companies that he has subsequently sold.

looks like NAT GAS like PSA been well oversold I see there's been quite a bad ICE storm hit parts of the US ,believe this is a great time to pick up more of the unloved US GAS focused ASX jnrs Got buy orders in both STX PSA

[SCHUMACHER]

looks like NAT GAS like PSA been well oversold I see there's been quite a bad ICE storm hit parts of the US ,believe this is a great time to pick up more of the unloved US GAS focused ASX jnrs Got buy orders in both STX PSA

PSA Shareprice stalling.....volume very low recently which suggests the selling has dried up, this usually happens at the end of a rally or selloff...I suspect at current prices we could see a fast rebound with some big hits..........lets hope that when volume returns she hits mid to high 20,s....PSA back to full production and cashflow is profitable!!
cheers SCHU

[JBmurc]

Natural Gas Advances as Supplies Decline More Than Expected
Email | Print | A A A

By Reg Curren

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas futures in New York advanced after a government report showed a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. supplies as lower temperatures spurred demand.

Inventories dropped 124 billion cubic feet in the week ended Dec. 12 to 3.167 trillion cubic feet, the U.S. Energy Department said. Analysts forecast a drop of 118 billion cubic feet. Supplies typically fall during the cold-weather months as demand for the heating fuel outstrips production and imports.

“The combination of a strong drawdown and the cold weather that’s in the Midwest that’s moving south and east has scared some traders,” said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc., an energy consulting company in New Canaan, Connecticut.

Natural gas for January delivery rose 6.5 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $5.684 per million British thermal units at 12:18 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas has declined 25 percent this year.

Below-normal temperatures will cover most of the U.S. starting Dec. 20 and persist for a week, according to MDA Federal Inc.’s EarthSat Energy Weather. The low in Chicago may fall to 7 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 14 Celsius) by Dec. 22, the forecaster said.

Lower temperatures in the Midwest are especially significant for natural gas demand because 72 percent of households in the region rely on it for heat.

Heating needs last week lifted demand in the Midwest to 5.4 percent above normal, David Salmon of Belton, Missouri-based Weather Derivatives, said in a Dec. 15 note.

Utilities and storage companies build stockpiles of the fuel between April and early November in preparation for peak demand during the winter months.


I see PSA 2011 est. 2p reserves without any new discoverys is 10.4Mboe
and thats after production est. of 2.1Mboe for 08y 09y 3.1Mboe for 10y
I think if any of you guys are having trouble finding Strong buys in the market PSA should be closely looked over

JBmurc holding-168,000 PSA bring on the $1sp

[tricha]

I dont want to mislead anyone here but PSA have secured funding in a tough market....thats KEY
secondly they are going into winter demand which will help spot prices......they are reducing debt which shows the market they can come back.......the key going forward is to ensure operations are under control and we have maximum energy output.....this is all being achieved thus i put a short term price target of 25c on PSA...oversold on the charts so a small rally is inevitable going into the busiest season for them REGARDS Schu

Reading between the lines their debt is 60 million, interest rate :confused:

At 80 cents it was bottom, at 30 cents it was bottom and and now at 17.5 cents ? Is this bottom.

Yes this could WELL be the bottom and a very quick 1 bagger and it looks enticing. But I'll leave this to you guys, I've had to many hidings of late.



For Further Information: Craig Jones Ross Keogh Petsec Energy Ltd Petsec Energy Inc. Level 13 4023 Ambassador Caffery Parkway 1 Alfred Street Suite 550 Sydney NSW 2000 Lafayette, LA 70503 Tel: 612 9247 4605 Tel: 1 (337) 989 1942 Fax: 612 9251 2410 Fax: 1 (337) 989 7271 Level 13, Gold Fields House, 1 Alfred Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia PO Box R204, Royal Exchange NSW 1225, Australia Telephone (61 2) 9247 4605 Facsimile (61 2) 9251 2410 Company information is available on: petsec.com.au M E D I A R E L E A S E PETSEC ENERGY LTD

ACN 000 602 700

11 December 2008

Increase in Bank Borrowing Base Limit

Petsec Energy Ltd (ASX: PSA; ADR’s: PSJEY.PK)
Petsec Energy Ltd is pleased to advise that following the completion of a semi-annual review by its banker, Guaranty Bank, the company’s borrowing base under its Revolving Credit Facility has been increased from US$39 million to US$53 million as at 1 December 2008. The borrowing base has monthly reductions of US$2 million.
The amount currently drawn under the Revolving Credit Facility is US$20.8 million. A further US$8.4 million is utilised to support letters of credit for MMS bonding purposes. The facility matures in November 2010.

In addition to the above facility, the company has a fully drawn US$30 million Term Loan Facility which matures in 2011.
Petsec Energy Ltd is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. It has operations in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico, the onshore Louisiana Gulf Coast region of the USA, and oil in the shallow waters of the Beibu Gulf off the south coast of China.

[macduffy]

PSA's cash position has undoubtedly been affected by the shut-ins experienced during the hurricane season but as SCH has pointed out, they have been successful in renewing their funding in a difficult market.
Their debt repayment record has been pretty impressive this year.


Total debt Net debt

December 2007 USD101.7m USD76.8m

June 2008 66.1m 41.1m

Sept 2008 52.8m 38.9m

Source: Annual and quarterly reports.

Apologies for the layout!

[tricha]

PSA's cash position has undoubtedly been affected by the shut-ins experienced during the hurricane season but as SCH has pointed out, they have been successful in renewing their funding in a difficult market.
Their debt repayment record has been pretty impressive this year.


Total debt Net debt

December 2007 USD101.7m USD76.8m

June 2008 66.1m 41.1m

Sept 2008 52.8m 38.9m

Source: Annual and quarterly reports.

Apologies for the layout!

Impressive, for the 1st half of the year, yes.

Whats changed and if u can not figure it :confused: u have got problems.

The amount currently drawn under the Revolving Credit Facility is US$20.8 million. A further US$8.4 million is utilised to support letters of credit for MMS bonding purposes. The facility matures in November 2010.


In addition to the above facility, the company has a fully drawn US$30 million Term Loan Facility which matures in 2011.

[macduffy]

Thanks, tricha.

Yes, I can count, too!
The question is what is their current cash position now?
As at 30 Sept, total borrowings $52.8m, Cash $13.9m, net debt $38.9m.
Currently, total borrowings $59.2m, Cash ? net debt ?

Cheers

;)

[tricha]

Thanks, tricha.

Yes, I can count, too!
The question is what is their current cash position now?
As at 30 Sept, total borrowings $52.8m, Cash $13.9m, net debt $38.9m.
Currently, total borrowings $59.2m, Cash ? net debt ?

Cheers

;)

Yeah the big question, :confused:


“Capital raisings, for example, which are needed to sustain energy and resources
developments are all but dead. Some ‘junior’ miners may be starting to run out of cash.
Some projects are being put on hold. The outlook is far less certain.”

Tony D’Aloisio, ASIC Chairman, Speech to Australian Corporate Lawyer Association ACLA), Friday, 7 November 2008




Thats the problem, but if the worm turns, PSA at this price will make u a mint. :D

[JBmurc]

Yeah the big question, :confused:


“Capital raisings, for example, which are needed to sustain energy and resources
developments are all but dead. Some ‘junior’ miners may be starting to run out of cash.
Some projects are being put on hold. The outlook is far less certain.”

Tony D’Aloisio, ASIC Chairman, Speech to Australian Corporate Lawyer Association ACLA), Friday, 7 November 2008




Thats the problem, but if the worm turns, PSA at this price will make u a mint. :D


Well I can't see PSA needing to raise capitial at this point ,I pretty sure PSA have 50% of their forward production hedged at over $8mmcf for at least the next yr and as we know their credit has been increased right when most Oilers would give their right nut for some extra funds-I'm looking forward to PSA next Qtr annoucement on how little dept they have left as they aren't spenting much atm

[tricha]

Well I can't see PSA needing to raise capitial at this point ,I pretty sure PSA have 50% of their forward production hedged at over $8mmcf for at least the next yr and as we know their credit has been increased right when most Oilers would give their right nut for some extra funds-I'm looking forward to PSA next Qtr annoucement on how little dept they have left as they aren't spenting much atm

Rule #1 in this market - debt is toxic :eek:

OK, so debt at the moment is under control, that's what they tell us.

Like PPP where we can guess future income to a degree, what is PSA's expected or guessed income JB ?????????????

What are their interest payments ?

What is their future expendure on exploration ?

At the moment I rate PSA as a gambling stock and at this price the rewards could be huge. But disaster could also be lurking around the corner.

[JBmurc]

Rule #1 in this market - debt is toxic :eek:

OK, so debt at the moment is under control, that's what they tell us.

Like PPP where we can guess future income to a degree, what is PSA's expected or guessed income JB ?????????????

What are their interest payments ?

What is their future expendure on exploration ?

At the moment I rate PSA as a gambling stock and at this price the rewards could be huge. But disaster could also be lurking around the corner.

Well tricha #1 where talking about a 27mill worth jnr producer

-to june 08 they had decressed their operating costs to $1.83US/mcfe their Gas Price Received:current spot:$5.50mcfe but with alot of their production hedged over $8mcfe
PSA margin should be at least $4.50-$5 with current production of 27mmcf per day with more production to come back on line early next year taking production back to round 40mmcfpd so at 27mmcfpd PSA are making a nett cashflow of $130-$140,000 US per day

PSA is expected generate over US$ 69m in net cash over the 15 months to the end of 2009
PSA market cap in USD is currently under $20mill

PSA 2011 est. 2p reserves without any new discoverys is 10.4Mboe
and thats after production est. of 2.1Mboe for 08y 09y 3.1Mboe for 10y

PSA has enough US Gas reserves to keep production at 27mmcf perday for the next 4yrs+
Alot of PSA current reserve is from the Beibu Gulf oil discovery which IMHO should have been sold to instead stay focused on the USA gulf Gas still the share of oil PSA has in that discovery is worth more than PSA at the moment

As for exploration cost's be very little in the DEC qtr-there using the opportunity of V258 being shut-in to re-complete the three wells from this platform.- other costs PSA are spending is the work on getting their full production back online repairing damaged ladders etc after Hurricanes Gustav and Ike caused some damage

[JBmurc]

well talk about kick in the guts PSA trading down 25% talk is ROC to annouce Beibu Gulf is not economic to develop at the moment.
Still can't say PSA had any value added from Beibu gulf still market believes PSA worth less be only 15million market cap soon F****n crazy stuff

[SCHUMACHER]

Well tricha #1 where talking about a 27mill worth jnr producer

-to june 08 they had decressed their operating costs to $1.83US/mcfe their Gas Price Received:current spot:$5.50mcfe but with alot of their production hedged over $8mcfe
PSA margin should be at least $4.50-$5 with current production of 27mmcf per day with more production to come back on line early next year taking production back to round 40mmcfpd so at 27mmcfpd PSA are making a nett cashflow of $130-$140,000 US per day

PSA is expected generate over US$ 69m in net cash over the 15 months to the end of 2009
PSA market cap in USD is currently under $20mill

PSA 2011 est. 2p reserves without any new discoverys is 10.4Mboe
and thats after production est. of 2.1Mboe for 08y 09y 3.1Mboe for 10y

PSA has enough US Gas reserves to keep production at 27mmcf perday for the next 4yrs+
Alot of PSA current reserve is from the Beibu Gulf oil discovery which IMHO should have been sold to instead stay focused on the USA gulf Gas still the share of oil PSA has in that discovery is worth more than PSA at the moment

As for exploration cost's be very little in the DEC qtr-there using the opportunity of V258 being shut-in to re-complete the three wells from this platform.- other costs PSA are spending is the work on getting their full production back online repairing damaged ladders etc after Hurricanes Gustav and Ike caused some damage

Guys and Gurls.......sure most debt is toxic but if you did not have some debt then there would be no growth ..society operates on credit and debt facilities, alot of
companies have toxic debt right now but if you recall PSA had an original debt
facility of $110 million its now only around $39 mill as they have paid off a large chunk .......they have a business that is net cashflow positive even at low gas prices, they have cut off any further exploration costs to focus on core business until the market picks up in 12 -18 months and they have hedged production at $8.80c so they are in a good position and can still pay off their debt facility each month.....todays sahreprice reflects investors pulling money out over xmas.....
Its very easy to be pessimistic in a bear market recession with not much to look forward to in the way of R.O.I return on investment.....some will prosper eventually others will fold....i think PSA will prosper and recover untimately.........cash on bank of $14 million debt facility being reduced and a net cash result of approx$65 million for full year is good value
cheers SCHU

[tricha]

well talk about kick in the guts PSA trading down 25% talk is ROC to annouce Beibu Gulf is not economic to develop at the moment.
Still can't say PSA had any value added from Beibu gulf still market believes PSA worth less be only 15million market cap soon F****n crazy stuff

WELL lets hope you are right JB and production is back up there and debt keeps falling.
This quarter is all but locked in, must be UnderDog selling as we have heard nought from him of late ;)
So I took the plunge with the medium to long term gamble, that this is now a 1 to 7 bagger opportunity.
We could still go to zero, but hey, odds are now firmly stacked in our favour.


Level 13, Gold Fields House, 1 Alfred Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia
PO Box R204, Royal Exchange NSW 1225, Australia
Telephone (61 2) 9247 4605 Facsimile (61 2) 9251 2410
Company information is available on: petsec.com.au

PETSEC ENERGY LTD

ACN 000 602 700

14 October 2008

Petsec Energy production increases to 27 million cubic feet of
gas per day following hurricane shut-ins.

Petsec Energy Ltd (ASX, PSA; ADRs, PSJEY.PK)

Petsec Energy advises that net gas production from its Gulf of Mexico gas fields had
increased to 27 million cubic feet of gas equivalent per day on 11 October, as fields
which had been shut-in in August/September because of Hurricane Gustav and Hurricane
Ike have been progressively brought back into production.
Three fields have not yet returned to production:
- The Mobile Bay 950 field, where repairs are underway,
- The Vermilion 258 field, which is expected to remain shut in until December due
to downstream processing issues, and
- The Main Pass 270 field which is expected to remain shut-in until December due
to third party pipeline issues.
These three fields are expected to contribute in excess of 10 million cubic feet of gas per
day when returned to production.
The next production update will be provided in the September quarterly report, to be
released on 23 October.

For Further Information please contact:
Craig Jones Ross Keogh
Level 13 4023 Ambassador Caffery Parkway
1 Alfred Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 Suite 550, Lafayette, LA 70503, USA
Tel: 612 9247 4605 Tel: 1 337 989 1942

Petsec Energy Ltd is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company
listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. Its focus of operations is on gas in the shallow
waters of the Gulf of Mexico and onshore Louisiana Gulf Coast region of the USA, and
on oil in the shallow waters of the Beibu Gulf off the south coast of China.

[JBmurc]

yeah good buying tricha I thought I brought cheap the other day at 19c :( still the most recent analyst report valued PSA's GOM US gas production & assets at 80c + 99c for the beibu oil discovery which looks to be now on the back burner till oil recovers back over 60bbl I'd say

[SCHUMACHER]

yeah good buying tricha I thought I brought cheap the other day at 19c :( still the most recent analyst report valued PSA's GOM US gas production & assets at 80c + 99c for the beibu oil discovery which looks to be now on the back burner till oil recovers back over 60bbl I'd say

dont worry JB.,...i also bought at 19c and at 15c so im in for a while ..She is back up at 15c today so im looking for a move after xmas if not before....not much up for sale now until we get over 21c which is where i think it will be very soon...market is spooked and i firmly think that PSA will still be able to profit from hedging forward production.........should stabalise around 14-15c then push up as we get closer to final 2008 quarter figures........patience required here....SCHU

[tricha]

yeah good buying tricha I thought I brought cheap the other day at 19c :( still the most recent analyst report valued PSA's GOM US gas production & assets at 80c + 99c for the beibu oil discovery which looks to be now on the back burner till oil recovers back over 60bbl I'd say

I thought 17.5 cents would be bottom JB, I thought wrong again, hence could not resist temptation.

When oil and gas increases, $1 again possible in this gambling stock in a year or two. In the short term 30 cents again soon is a possibility. As u clearly ilustrated JB they have the goods and the borrowing side is sorted.

[JBmurc]

Nat gas up over $6 now Oil futures over $40 could we have seen the low point in energy prices -I certainly think so.

As for other factors to push PSA sp they will be bring alot more production back online very soon a annoucement of such with GAS heading higher should clean out the idots selling at these levels---- 40mmcfpd back online ---

[tricha]

Nat gas up over $6 now Oil futures over $40 could we have seen the low point in energy prices -I certainly think so.

As for other factors to push PSA sp they will be bring alot more production back online very soon a annoucement of such with GAS heading higher should clean out the idots selling at these levels---- 40mmcfpd back online ---

Idiots, not in my book, Saints JB, Saints :)

[tricha]

Nat gas up over $6 now Oil futures over $40 could we have seen the low point in energy prices -I certainly think so.

As for other factors to push PSA sp they will be bring alot more production back online very soon a annoucement of such with GAS heading higher should clean out the idots selling at these levels---- 40mmcfpd back online ---

A bit different to the US, but nothing moves anywhere without Energy. If PSA get their act together, watch this space ....................................

December 23, 2008 -- Updated 1616 GMT (0016 HKT)
Putin: 'Cheap gas era' ending


<LI class=cnnHiliteHeader _extended="true">Story Highlights <LI _extended="true">Putin was addressing ministers at the Gas Exporting Countries Forum
<LI _extended="true">Costs needed to develop the industry are growing sharply, Putin says
<LI _extended="true">Speculation GECF wants to set up organization similar to oil producers' cartel, OPEC
Next Article in World Business » (http://edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS/12/23/russia.putin.gas/index.html?iref=nextin)

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/.element/img/2.0/global/1x1pixel.gif
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/.element/img/2.0/mosaic/base_skins/baseplate/corner_dg_BL.gif
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/.element/img/2.0/mosaic/base_skins/baseplate/corner_dg_TL.gif
By CNN's Matthew Chance
http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/.element/img/2.0/global/story_tools/text_size.gif
http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/.element/img/2.0/global/story_tools/txt_minus.gif http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/.element/img/2.0/global/story_tools/txt_minus_dn_.gif
http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/.element/img/2.0/global/story_tools/txt_plus.gif http://i.l.cnn.net/cnn/.element/img/2.0/global/story_tools/txt_plus_dn.gif

MOSCOW, Russia (CNN) -- The era of cheap natural gas is coming to an end, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Tuesday at a meeting in Moscow of the world's major gas-exporting countries.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/BUSINESS/12/23/russia.putin.gas/art.putin.gas.afp.gi.jpg Vladimir Putin says Russia invests tens of billions of dollars in gas exploration.


http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/.element/img/2.0/mosaic/base_skins/baseplate/corner_wire_BL.gif


That dire-sounding prediction is exactly what his audience wanted to hear.
Iran, Libya and Venezuela are among the countries attending the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, which observers say is fast emerging as an OPEC-style gas-producers' cartel. The gas group, commonly called GECF, would control the vast bulk of global supplies and could fix prices for the rest of the world.
And because of rising global production costs, Putin (http://topics.edition.cnn.com/topics/vladimir_putin) said, prices will only get higher.
"Costs, which are necessary to develop the [energy] sphere, are rising sharply," Putin said. "It means that despite the global financial crisis and price drop for energy resources, the era of cheap energy, including cheap gas, is coming to an end."
Russia (http://topics.edition.cnn.com/topics/russia), the world's biggest producer of natural gas, supplies Europe with more than 40 percent of its imports -- mainly via pipelines that cross the former Soviet republic of Ukraine.
The Moscow meeting comes amid growing concern that a contract dispute between Ukraine and Russia's state-controlled energy giant, Gazprom, could again disrupt gas supplies to Europe in the new year.
Putin called on GECF members to establish their headquarters in St. Petersburg and promised to grant the group diplomatic status. This was GECF's seventh ministerial meeting.
Russia is currently locked in a dispute with Ukraine (http://topics.edition.cnn.com/topics/ukraine) over non-payment of debts. Russian gas giant, Gazprom, says Ukraine owes it $2 billion and has warned it may cut off gas supplies next month if the dispute remains unresolved.

[tricha]

I thought 17.5 cents would be bottom JB, I thought wrong again, hence could not resist temptation.

When oil and gas increases, $1 again possible in this gambling stock in a year or two. In the short term 30 cents again soon is a possibility. As u clearly ilustrated JB they have the goods and the borrowing side is sorted.

It was a good day to sell half and lock in a quick 30% on top of the gain in PPP.

Warning - Never buy in a down trend :rolleyes: where have I heard that before.

[JBmurc]

It was a good day to sell half and lock in a quick 30% on top of the gain in PPP.

Warning - Never buy in a down trend :rolleyes: where have I heard that before.

Yesterday I sold my AGS holding for a 50%+ gain brought them in a massive downtrend mid dec.
it's all about when to take the risk I guess
I fundenmental base value a share for the current market -current market massively undervalued

alot of investors will wait it a share breaks through it MDA or is recent trend lines which in 60% of the time will be a safer time to buy,but still have done to then watched the share return to it's low point a week later

As for PSA I've got some at 19c & 23c -for me 50% gain I'll sell half

[JBmurc]

By BEN CASSELMAN
A pair of deals by Oklahoma billionaire George B. Kaiser, widely considered one of the country's savviest energy investors, could be an early sign that after a massive selloff, the smart money is getting back into the oil industry.


George Kaiser
But the cautious nature of the investments suggests that while a bottom may be near, the recovery won't be quick.

In one of two deals announced Monday, a private-equity firm controlled by Mr. Kaiser will buy assets from natural-gas producer Chesapeake Energy Corp. for $412 million in a transaction financed by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

In the second transaction, Mr. Kaiser bought $50 million of shares in another gas producer, Sand-Ridge Energy Inc. -- a 5% stake -- from that Oklahoma City company's chairman and chief executive, Tom Ward. A charitable foundation established by Mr. Kaiser will have the option to buy another 6.67 million shares from Mr. Ward at the same price.

Shares of oil and gas companies have been battered in recent months as slumping energy prices have deflated revenues and the weak economy has raised fears that demand for oil will remain low for many months. At the same time, tight credit markets have forced some smaller companies to sell assets to raise cash at a time when buyers are scarce.

That is creating opportunities for investors with cash and a tolerance for risk. Steve Mitchell, managing director of Mr. Kaiser's private-equity firm, Argonaut Private Equity, said Mr. Kaiser believes many energy stocks are trading at prices about as low as they're going to get.

"The anchor's dragging along the bottom. ... He feels there are some good buying opportunities," Mr. Mitchell said.

Mr. Kaiser's moves are closely watched by energy investors because of his nearly 40-year career in the industry. He built Kaiser-Francis Oil Co. into one of the nation's largest closely held oil and gas producers largely by buying up properties during market downturns.

"George is clearly smart money in this sector. ... Seeing someone like George Kaiser involved would reinforce the notion that this is the time to be looking at opportunities," said Carl Tricoli, managing partner of Denham Capital, an energy-focused private-equity firm.

Mr. Kaiser isn't the only prominent investor putting money into oil and gas. Billionaire Kirk Kerkorian last month added nearly two million shares to his 40 million-share holdings in Denver-based energy producer Delta Petroleum Corp.

Other investors are targeting energy as a potential source of strong returns. In December, natural-gas producer and pipeline company El Paso Corp. became the first company since October to successfully sell high-yield bonds, and several other energy companies have followed suit.

But even wealthy investors are treading carefully. Mr. Kerkorian has been buying Delta Petroleum shares on the open market but hasn't renewed a tender offer to buy as much as 14 million shares, which Mr. Kerkorian canceled in November after Delta's share price fell sharply.

Mr. Kaiser's investments also are structured cautiously. He bought his SandRidge stock for $5.62 a share, near its lowest close of 2008, and he has the right to sell it back to Sand-Ridge's Mr. Ward in February for the same price.

In the Chesapeake deal, Mr. Kaiser bought eight years of natural-gas production from wells that already are operating, meaning he doesn't need to worry about the Oklahoma City company drilling dry holes. And Mr. Kaiser paid just $4.20 per thousand cubic feet of gas, 34% less than the price Chesapeake got when it did a similar deal in August.

"We wouldn't have done a deal like this 12 months ago. ... We were not buyers of gas in April or May," Mr. Mitchell said.

[JBmurc]

It was a good day to sell half and lock in a quick 30% on top of the gain in PPP.

Warning - Never buy in a down trend :rolleyes: where have I heard that before.

PSA up 20%+ today only 204k in the selling depth allready be 155k traded today talk about sellers drying up not only PSA but most of the small caps I follow have very low seller interest in the depth

[p0ssy]

Bought some more of these today. My pick for the 2009 stock competition - price should peak in 12 months (winter in USA) in time for competition's end. lol

Pity they are not supplying Europe.

[Corporate]

Dec Quarter results out! Look pretty good for a company valued at $30m. I guess it's just all the debt bothering investors.

[tricha]

[quote=Corporate;240708]Dec Quarter results out! Look pretty good for a company valued at $30m. I guess it's just all the debt bothering investors.[/quote

Net debt: US$36.8 million at 31 December 2008 - down 5% from 30 September 2008;

In a nutshell, debt :eek:

Hey JBmurc & SCHUMACHER did u bail, hence no updates of late, I did, chickened the rest out at 22 cent.

And I'm glad, chicken got the better of me.

[JBmurc]

[quote=Corporate;240708]Dec Quarter results out! Look pretty good for a company valued at $30m. I guess it's just all the debt bothering investors.[/quote

Net debt: US$36.8 million at 31 December 2008 - down 5% from 30 September 2008;

In a nutshell, debt :eek:

Hey JBmurc & SCHUMACHER did u bail, hence no updates of late, I did, chickened the rest out at 22 cent.

And I'm glad, chicken got the better of me.



Still holding a fair chunk still confindent PSA will hold these levels and hopefully move upwards on any Nat GAS price increase or good news like paying down depth faster than the last Qtr still have 34BCF gas in reserves +china once oil get back up to true value
still if I see a quick profit in PSA or STX I'll take my profits IRN & other goldies etc have alot more potential going forward atm.

[ELYOB]

my view is very dim for both PSA and STX .......they are under long term strain with gas in USA . The next 9 months are all pain , even if oil comes out fighting . Debt ;poor exploration to replace reserves is going to work against them

I dont hold either but the view is free and is my own ; so please DYOR

[JBmurc]

my view is very dim for both PSA and STX .......they are under long term strain with gas in USA . The next 9 months are all pain , even if oil comes out fighting . Debt ;poor exploration to replace reserves is going to work against them

I dont hold either but the view is free and is my own ; so please DYOR

There's alot worse ASX oilers making alot less than these two at there current levels they are great long-term BUYS just not looking as good with US gas prices at under $5 in the short term still if you compared them to some of the Aussie focused Gas producers which in cashflow an reserves make them look alot worse of than STX,PSA

-STX for one has a Basic/diluted earnings
per share (cps) of 12c now if we believe this upcoming yr will slash that by 50% STX will still have basic EPS of 6c current SP 11c net dept to cap 12%

also as they operate in the US they get an overall better GAS price =remember $4.60mmcf =$7mmcf AUD I know awhile back ARQ was happy getting an increase on the then $3.50mmcf AUD

At current SP neither are exactly overpriced and as they both have at least 2-3yrs of current production in reserves both have time to lock in the ever decreasing cost to drill for more Gas&oil on their large prime GOM etc tenaments

[ELYOB]

I posted about the next 9 months ..... so in 12 months they may well get some exploration going but until then , pain is the word . Ofcourse 2-3 years anything could happen . I see danger in this pain period .... what damage may it do .... no good saying it wont as lotsa things to happen this year that could send gas prices lower in USA plus typhoons ; banks ????. Then the real problems start as it has with Aussie oilers which everybody thought were safe

Stocks like OEL OEX and many others now have strain ....

[Corporate]

I've been reading the lastest quarterly report and PSA say that production was 12 bcfe for the 2008 year. Yet have given guidance of only 7bcfe for 2009?

[JBmurc]

I've been reading the lastest quarterly report and PSA say that production was 12 bcfe for the 2008 year. Yet have given guidance of only 7bcfe for 2009?

i don't think their is a hurry to use up their 35bcf reserves at the very low Nat gas prices $4
as they will need to replace reserves alot earlyier at high cost to price ratio basic business sense even the saudis are closing down some production while prices are so low very little worldwide exploration if the cost out weights the reward why take the risk------------------- time will reward the ones with reserves once prices get out of the current oversold position the ROC STX PSA CUE COE AWE etc etc will once again have value in their exploration grounds

[tricha]

i don't think their is a hurry to use up their 35bcf reserves at the very low Nat gas prices $4
as they will need to replace reserves alot earlyier at high cost to price ratio basic business sense even the saudis are closing down some production while prices are so low very little worldwide exploration if the cost out weights the reward why take the risk------------------- time will reward the ones with reserves once prices get out of the current oversold position the ROC STX PSA CUE COE AWE etc etc will once again have value in their exploration grounds


------------------- time, that's the issue here with PSA and with the market as a whole, what is your time line :confused:

[JBmurc]

------------------- time, that's the issue here with PSA and with the market as a whole, what is your time line :confused:

well been trading shares for several years an holding some near that like STX so always look longer term with any major buy even though I mostly sell before the yrs out sometimes in out same share in the same month for me PSA has always on the watchlist current just sold out of most my holding for a small loss just got to much invested in the US gas market so decided to sell down an put the funds into increasing undervalued Oilers like ROC CUE
In the short term Nat Gas still under selling pressure may not see a decent price for awhile

[AMR]

Flicking through my watchlist tonight and saw that PSA has formed a beautiful descending triangle. (IMO more likely to breakout downwards especially in this market or even break out upwards and quickly reverse)

Will be interesting to see how this pans out. AA what do you reckon?

[macduffy]

PSA is due to be dropped from the AllOrds as at 20 March so not surprising that SP continues to downtrend as index funds unload.

[JBmurc]

well how the market is starting to warm again for the undervalued PSA was 35.5 c a minute ago recent low 14c on march 12th brought some again on 30th april for 24c sitting on a 39%profit atm.........

-looking forward PSA cashflow will stay strong helped by the $8mcf hedge on half of their 7bcf production for 09
-drill rates falling massively PSA will start drilling again
-PSA dept well under control being paid down as I post.......
-Oil&Gas prices rebounding PSA's china oil's JV will soon be very economic again ,ROC is very keen to fast track production there................

[p0ssy]

PSA was always a no brainer. Up 60% for me. Looking for 200% by years end.

[JBmurc]

-MD to announce Quarter results on the 23rd should be nice as they have half of their production hedged at $8mcf

-2008-Earnings Per Share -25c

brought a few at 26c

looks like it formed a base round 25c

[tricha]

-MD to announce Quarter results on the 23rd should be nice as they have half of their production hedged at $8mcf

-2008-Earnings Per Share -25c

brought a few at 26c

looks like it formed a base round 25c

Hey JB, was wondering what their P2 reserve equilivent was, regarding future production, especially if they are not drilling ????

[JBmurc]

Hey JB, was wondering what their P2 reserve equilivent was, regarding future production, especially if they are not drilling ????

Off the top head be round 30bcf min left atm, this year they were looking at producing 7bcf
I do think their oil in china makes up some of the 2p reserve.
They really need to increase reserves soon to spark market interests currently we can buy PSA for not much more than one year earnings ,they have at least 3 in reserves

Last radio report Terry stated PSA may look at buying cheap reserves he did predict gas prices may reach 2.50 so with Gas at 3.50 they may have just pull finger an drill on their many GOM permits

[JBmurc]

Net revenue
US$m
14.6

EBITDAX
US$m
9.5

Net debt
US$m
22.1 down from 32.8 last qtr

PSA P/E is just under 2 ?

Market Cap-39mill

Yet again no exploration planned for the next Qtr

China IMHO once we know for sure of the final plan will re-rate PSA higher, we need China National Offshore Oil Corporation to buy back in,then their government will be all for it an we can tie into CNOOC platform close by..

PSA still on track to produce 7bcf for the year(still way more than most ASX gassers)

Overall pretty much predictable QTR Management playing safe reducing debt looking to add to reserves on the cheap not going to drill till Nat gas prices go up, Hedging been very kind to bottom line will run out next yr...

[macduffy]

Hi JB.

What are you basing your earnings estimate on to arrive at the P/E of "just under 2"?

Cheers

:)

[JBmurc]

Hi JB.

What are you basing your earnings estimate on to arrive at the P/E of "just under 2"?

Cheers

:)

It's what E*trade gives at their company profile--It may not be exact but with Net revenue
14.6 US$m for the Qtr an a market cap of only 39mill AUD it isn't going be high

PSA have 148,690,000 shares outstanding -June 08 to june 09 they reduced nett dept by $19,008,000 so if this is their nett profit they would have a EPS of 12.7c sound right?

[shasta]

Hi JB.

What are you basing your earnings estimate on to arrive at the P/E of "just under 2"?

Cheers

:)

I see ASB Sec also show a current P/E of ~2, but have forecast EPS of just 0.9 in 2010, blowing out the fwd P/E to 32

They also forecast FY 09 eps @ 3.2c on a P/E of 8.8, so the current P/E is based on 2008 actuals.

At least PSA is paying down debt quickly, should position themselves nicely for when US gas prices increase

[JBmurc]

I see ASB Sec also show a current P/E of ~2, but have forecast EPS of just 0.9 in 2010, blowing out the fwd P/E to 32

They also forecast FY 09 eps @ 3.2c on a P/E of 8.8, so the current P/E is based on 2008 actuals.

At least PSA is paying down debt quickly, should position themselves nicely for when US gas prices increase

I really think PSA future lies in what happens with their 12.5% interest of the Oil discovery in china some 4mill+ bbl nett to PSA

That and the fact PSA if they carry to pay down their dept could well have only 5>1mill left in net dept this time next year but still have 20bcf+ of reserves

I guess the reason the have a forward EPS so much lower is the CAPEX needed in china

[macduffy]

It's what E*trade gives at their company profile--It may not be exact but with Net revenue
14.6 US$m for the Qtr an a market cap of only 39mill AUD it isn't going be high

PSA have 148,690,000 shares outstanding -June 08 to june 09 they reduced nett dept by $19,008,000 so if this is their nett profit they would have a EPS of 12.7c sound right?

The reduction in the debt might equate to net cash inflow but I would expect there to be some non cash items such as depreciation/amortisation, tax provision etc to be deducted before arriving at NPAT.
There's no doubt that the reduction in borrowings is impressive but the worry is that they're not replacing reserves. I sold PSA several months ago for this reason and because I suspect the Chinese will take their time over developing Beibu gulf.

Keeping an eye on things though.

;)

[JBmurc]

The reduction in the debt might equate to net cash inflow but I would expect there to be some non cash items such as depreciation/amortisation, tax provision etc to be deducted before arriving at NPAT.
There's no doubt that the reduction in borrowings is impressive but the worry is that they're not replacing reserves. I sold PSA several months ago for this reason and because I suspect the Chinese will take their time over developing Beibu gulf.

Keeping an eye on things though.

;)

Yeah for sure till something happens PSA will trade the 25c-35c range we need
-A higher Nat gas price
-good news china
-reserve purchase
-Drilling & discovery
-Takeover by the chinese??
a good mixture of the above an we see it well over $1 again in time...till then trading range bound

[AMR]

Caught a bullish segment in Oil and Gas weekly about PSA recently. Along with Shrewd's recent announcement of 7 year lows for US gas prices.

Also noticed that PSA has returned to recent support at 23c or thereabouts....

[JBmurc]

Caught a bullish segment in Oil and Gas weekly about PSA recently. Along with Shrewd's recent announcement of 7 year lows for US gas prices.

Also noticed that PSA has returned to recent support at 23c or thereabouts....

Yeah could well surprise S/P wise if their china interests with ROC look to gain traction and head into production sooner
Gas wise PSA have received overall good sales from their production because of their forward hedging..
Dept has been a negative that has dogged PSA for awhile thing is PSA are on the homeward stretch on having it all paid off before this time next year..(if they don't go spending up too large)
exploration on their large GOM tenaments should get market att. est. if the Nat gas prices are back over $5mcf

[JBmurc]

PSA sp-31c up over 25% from only days ago -Nat gas looking like the worst is behind it -buyers of late will be happy to hold with PSA IMHO likely to return back towards 60-70c SP before the years out

[pigeon]

PSA sp-31c up over 25% from only days ago -Nat gas looking like the worst is behind it -buyers of late will be happy to hold with PSA IMHO likely to return back towards 60-70c SP before the years out


Hi JB,

Are you still bullish about PSA? Ive been considering a purchase, would be interested to know your thoughts given the success I have had with PEN and IRN this year ..