Ramsay Health Care - RHC [Archive]

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Dazza

27-08-2007, 05:21 PM

I note that there is no thread for this

I am currently doing the DD on it, to bad i only have 5 years of data and not 10 years, currently it looks good.

Monopoly in the health sector

It owns private hospitals - Not to sure if any government involvement?

If not then private hosps rocks :D

I know steven fleming and SEC is bullish on this company

tobo

27-08-2007, 09:42 PM

Some talk (but not much) over on hc.
Quality discussed

steve fleming

27-08-2007, 10:12 PM

Hi Dazza, Huntleys have updated their research on RHC today:

RHC is a premier private hospital operator generating leading industry margins.

Strong cash flow from the portfolio of quality hospitals is invested to enhance facilities.

RHC has 68 hospitals and day care facilities, 20,000 staff, annual revenue of over $2bn and manages over 7,200 beds. RHC operates a decentralised control structure to empower operators.

Many of the hospitals present natural monopolies for their region because of location, scale and reputation.

The stock suits investors looking for long term earnings growth derived from increasing capacity to meet the demand for service from an aging population.

"MD Pat Grier has met with Kevin Rudd and a number of his team. A chdange in government will see no change to the current private system which is working and envied by many other countries. Latest data indicates an increase in the percentage of people with private insurance to 43.5%. Both parties accept the 30% rebate program is working well"

RHC forecast low double digit earnings growth for FY08.

A nice low risk, defensive play, with plenty of growth upside. I hold.

Dazza

27-08-2007, 10:24 PM

just talk on HC about how their customer relations aint good
not looking after patients

and also paying not very well towards their staff

australins what are your thoughts?

RHC hospitals neat? or?

steve fleming

27-08-2007, 10:29 PM

RHC accounts for 30% of Australian private hospital revenues with competitor Healthscope (HSP) at 17%.

In terms of private hospital operators RHC are your best bet.

SEC

28-08-2007, 01:09 AM

just talk on HC about how their customer relations aint good
not looking after patients

and also paying not very well towards their staff

australins what are your thoughts?

RHC hospitals neat? or?

So you are paying attention to the views of a Hotcopperite who was confidently predicting RHC's profits were going down this year? Oh please.....

RHC is steady but boring as batshït. It has a cornerstone shareholder which means no takeover chance and Ramsay has itself not been acquisitive of late.

I've held RHC since early 06 to try and balance my resource heavy portfolio but since then all my other stocks have significantly outperformed RHC and I don't top up on rangebound stocks so it's my smallest holding now.

SEC

Dazza

28-08-2007, 03:09 PM

not at all SEC

just would like some opinions i guess mate.

Since satisfaction report did come out from an independent survey.

thanks for ur declaration of ur holdigns

ill ponder about dropping some cash in it

so far im busy with QBE/WOW

SEC

12-12-2007, 01:15 AM

RHC starting to perk up after going nowhere for ages, now only about 30c shy of $12 all time high. Looks as if there is rotation from HSP/PRY and/or proceeds spent from Symbion takeover.

Will look to sell if it can't break $12 this time round but will buy more if it does....

SEC

ratkin

01-02-2010, 04:41 PM

Times like this im pleased my portfoio is packed with defensive , boring stocks
Great announcement today , growth for the year expected to be around 20% rather than the 14% that was forecast.

Three years since the last message was posted about this stock.
Shows that the higher a stocks quality , the less it is talked about on internet forums

voltage

01-02-2010, 05:35 PM

good point ratkin, these defensive stocks have done well, and are hardly mentioned, with the dip at the moment WOW also looks good buying

buns

28-09-2010, 01:32 PM

Thoughts on this one? Just digging into some research on it.

Hasn't stop creeping away since early Jan 09, looks like a no brainier if you are contempt with 15% PA

Has it gone to far?

ratkin

28-09-2010, 01:58 PM

This stock is a no brainer for a long term portfolio , . Double digit growth year after year. In the right buisness and geographically diverse.
So much potential in europe where it has a growing presence. The demographics etc all stack up, I have been in for about five years . It spent a few years with price stagnation due to GFC meanwhile the company just kept doing good things

ratkin

20-12-2010, 01:55 PM

Trading update , well ahead of last year and an upgrade to guidance.
This stock just goes from strength to strengh . Price has just about doubled since the GFC

The strong core NPAT growth in this period is a result of better than expected
performance in the Australian business, brownfield ramp up, slightly better than
expected results from our UK business (which has performed well despite a weak UK
economy) and interest costs having been lower than originally expected as a result of
lower than anticipated interest rate rises coupled with more effective capital
management.
As a result, the core NPAT growth of the Group for the full 2011 fiscal year is,
barring unforeseen circumstances, expected to be in the range of 22-24%, which
compares to earlier core NPAT guidance of 13-15% growth over the prior year. This
upgraded core NPAT guidance of 22-24% growth would translate into core EPS
growth of 18- 20% for fiscal 2011.

ratkin

24-02-2011, 12:10 PM

Seems a very good result , full steam ahead

ratkin

01-07-2012, 06:48 PM

Over two years since my last post on this stock , has been a one way trip upwards. Yet another case of quality being "too boring to talk about"

Toulouse - Luzern

02-07-2012, 09:04 AM

I don't hold the stock but I picked RHC in the ASX competition.
RHC is plus 16% approx ytd.

I picked it because the 5 year chart showed a nice upward slope like the left hand side of Rangitoto Island to the peak viewed from Takapuna Beach.

Lately it is looking more like Mount Maunganui from any side.

macduffy

03-07-2012, 04:19 PM

Over two years since my last post on this stock , has been a one way trip upwards. Yet another case of quality being "too boring to talk about"

Congrats, ratkin!

"The Bull" this week reported RHC as one of only eight stocks to be trading on the ASX at 52 week highs. Now that's a trend!

No, I don't hold.

:(

skid

04-07-2012, 09:36 AM

Ramsey in Australia----and Ryan in New Zealand--Its an Australasia Trend.. Something to be said for demographics

ratkin

29-11-2012, 07:21 PM

Smashing its all time highs on an almost daily basis.
Very bullish report today about the stocks growth possibilities in the UK , seems to have everything in its favour

http://www.smh.com.au/business/ramsay-prepped-for-britains-nhs-shakeup-20121128-2acs7.html#ixzz2DXQUSA9M

ENP

02-12-2012, 03:12 PM

seems to have everything in its favour

But it is a very expensive stock. Trading at 23 times earnings.

I've wanted to buy RHC for a few years but it has always looked ridiculously expensive.

ratkin

02-12-2012, 04:16 PM

But it is a very expensive stock. Trading at 23 times earnings.

I've wanted to buy RHC for a few years but it has always looked ridiculously expensive.

It funny how the brokerage houses rate it at 18 dollars but the price just keeps on rising, who are they trying to kid?
Probably the same people trying to convice us all that the fonterra shares were only worth 4.50

Having said that , they do look fully priced (for now)

winner69

02-12-2012, 04:17 PM

But it is a very expensive stock. Trading at 23 times earnings.

I've wanted to buy RHC for a few years but it has always looked ridiculously expensive.

So ratios have kept you from making heaps then enp

Fundamentals and ratios are all good stuff for deciding what to invest in but at te end of the day sentiment is what rules the market

The likes of ratkin follow the big trends ....prob ratkin has his RHC chart nearby and as long as the price line stays above the major trend lines he still holds .....no matter if perceive to be grossly overvalued or not

And ratkin prob knows wen to bail when he has to as well

Sauce

02-12-2012, 04:57 PM

So ratios have kept you from making heaps then enp
Fundamentals and ratios are all good stuff for deciding what to invest in but at te end of the day sentiment is what rules the market

How ignoble of you Winner ;)

Personally, I would suggest that ENPs patience and discipline with RHC is in fact a good sign that, on average, over the long term, he will make wise decisions (or at least 'wiser' relative to the market).

Regards,

Sauce

winner69

02-12-2012, 05:21 PM

How ignoble of you Winner ;)

Personally, I would suggest that ENPs patience and discipline with RHC is in fact a good sign that, on average, over the long term, he will make wise decisions (or at least 'wiser' relative to the market).

Regards,

Sauce

That's a bit tough sauce .....was only making a suggestion

Agree patience is a virtue ...even with RHC it looks like ratkin has been patient as has enp .....with different results

I find that sometimes patience leads to conservatism which is not always good. Was just suggesting following sentiment can be a profitable strategy even if the value part of the equation does not make sense

ratkin

02-12-2012, 05:32 PM

Have held since around 2005 -2006 (too lazy to check when) shareprice went nowhere for a few years, but eps constantly been growing at around 15% per year. It has only been in the last year or so that the market has really stood up and taken notice.
Will continue to hold until it starts stagnating (growth wise) or debt becomes too high.

I consider the stock safer now than it was a year or two ago. They took on a fair bit of debt when they entered the UK , it was fairly risky and could of gone badly. However it appears to have gone very well , the NHS cant cope with all the aging brits and its enevitable that lots of the patients will be farmed out to the private hospitals , its the only waay they can keep the waiting lists down.
They are well bedded in there now , and have a good reputation , debt has been coming down as the profits kick in. The long term future looks very bright , its just that now everyone jumping on the bandwagon,, so the stock no longer cheap.

Incidentally , according to ASB securities the P/E in 2005/2006 was well over 20% but it hasnt stopped the shareprice tripling since then

Sauce

02-12-2012, 05:42 PM

That's a bit tough sauce .....was only making a suggestion

I find that sometimes patience leads to conservatism which is not always good. Was just suggesting following sentiment can be a profitable strategy even if the value part of the equation does not make sense

I was just teasing. After reading your posts for many years I made the presumption that your comment was probably somewhat astray from your own investment philosophy. I.e. I don't picture you as a trend trader - more of a value investor like ENP

But, as usual, your open mindedness and non-dogmatic view shines through. :)

Regards,

Sauce

ENP

04-12-2012, 07:31 PM

Anyone looked into Pulse Health PHG as an alternative?

It's much smaller and instead of building large hospitals in big main cities, it buys clinics and smaller rural hospitals, some in Queensland and Tasmania. Although with a market cap of only $20 million or so, it's traded very rarely. It's fundamentals aren't as good and only made it's first profit in it's most recent financial year but it is interesting to keep track of.

A bit too small for my liking but curious to see if anyone owns some shares that also owns or has looked at Ramsay.

ratkin

04-12-2012, 08:01 PM

A little too speculative for myself, dont know much about it , however the numbers hint at plenty of debt and low return on equity .
Suspect it will come down to quality of the management. The non existant liquidity is a worry , would be no escape route should it turn bad

percy

23-10-2013, 07:23 AM

RHC are trading at $38. Macquarie value them between$39 and $42.Yield is between 1 and 2%.
PE is over 30.
Yet a trust I and a trustee of, have been advised by Macquarie to buy RHC.
Does not make sense to me.Would any of you long term shareholders be buying at $38. ???

Sideshow Bob

23-10-2013, 08:50 AM

Number alone, no. But What are their growth prospects? Think they are still expanding and acquisition mode? But would need to deliver to justify SP.

percy

23-10-2013, 09:43 AM

Number alone, no. But What are their growth prospects? Think they are still expanding and acquisition mode? But would need to deliver to justify SP.

Projected growth EPS.2013 actual 16.7% 2014 forecast 16.7% 2015 forecast 14.7% 2016 forecast 15%
PE 26.5...22.7....19.8....17.2....

Sideshow Bob

23-10-2013, 09:57 PM

I see Craigs research says they have announced a French acquisition. Perhaps analysts knew that this was coming - a la Chalkie's column today about on-going disclosure. Interesting article, saying that often the analysts are privy to information before the market in analysts updates, and cited the Newmont's recent incident.

born2invest

24-10-2013, 08:01 AM

Projected growth EPS.2013 actual 16.7% 2014 forecast 16.7% 2015 forecast 14.7% 2016 forecast 15%
PE 26.5...22.7....19.8....17.2....

I understand when the EPS increases like you mention, the theoretical PE decreased from 26.5 to 17.2.

But why do you think like this? Any company that is growing it's EPS, the P/E ratio will decrease in the example you have given above. Do you use this sort of formula to find out a valuation for buying? Sort of like the PEG ratio?

I'm quite interested in why you have put the info this way.

percy

24-10-2013, 08:17 AM

I understand when the EPS increases like you mention, the theoretical PE decreased from 26.5 to 17.2.

But why do you think like this? Any company that is growing it's EPS, the P/E ratio will decrease in the example you have given above. Do you use this sort of formula to find out a valuation for buying? Sort of like the PEG ratio?

I'm quite interested in why you have put the info this way.

I think you can see where I am headed.I try to use PEG but prefer to use PEG plus dividend.I do not mind a high PE so long as the growth rate and the dividend yield add up to more.I am also very scared to take too much notice of 2 or more years' out projections.
RHC PE is 30.35.and dividend yield is 1.86%.So using either formula it does not add up.ie projected growth is 16.7%.
What I did not state was it was suggested we sell TEL nz to fund RHC purchase.
TEL's PE is 17.69 and dividend yield is 7.03%.What I have no idea is TEL's projected growth rate.

born2invest

24-10-2013, 09:00 AM

ns
I think you can see where I am headed.I try to use PEG but prefer to use PEG plus dividend.I do not mind a high PE so long as the growth rate and the dividend yield add up to more.I am also very scared to take too much notice of 2 or more years' out projections.
RHC PE is 30.35.and dividend yield is 1.86%.So using either formula it does not add up.ie projected growth is 16.7%.
What I did not state was it was suggested we sell TEL nz to fund RHC purchase.
TEL's PE is 17.69 and dividend yield is 7.03%.What I have no idea is TEL's projected growth rate.

So if the growth rate + dividend is more than P/E ratio you buy?

born2invest

24-10-2013, 10:07 AM

percy

24-10-2013, 10:57 AM

ns

So if the growth rate + dividend is more than P/E ratio you buy?

Yes.
Often it works out a lot more.
From memory I added to my MNF at 28cents.Projected PE was about 9,while growth was over 20%. This was laid out in a company presentation.
Unfortunately that does not happen too often.But if you start thinking that way it works out to be profitable.Gives you a large margin of safety.To be really safe you don't want to take future projections more than 2 years,although 1 year's is even safer.

ratkin

25-02-2014, 01:38 PM

(2010) This stock is a no brainer for a long term portfolio , . Double digit growth year after year. In the right buisness and geographically diverse.
So much potential in europe where it has a growing presence. The demographics etc all stack up, I have been in for about five years . It spent a few years with price stagnation due to GFC meanwhile the company just kept doing good things

Blowing my own trumpet , (again)
Held this baby since around 2004 , held all through the GFC and now appears unstoppable Ramsay never seem to put a foot wrong. Another fantastic result, near the 50 dollars a share mark now

percy

25-02-2014, 04:41 PM

Blowing my own trumpet , (again)
Held this baby since around 2004 , held all through the GFC and now appears unstoppable Ramsay never seem to put a foot wrong. Another fantastic result, near the 50 dollars a share mark now

Well done.!

ratkin

25-02-2014, 06:05 PM

Well done.!

Are you still in Percy? It seems this one is never discussed on the boards (unlike Summerset) I guess many look at the chart and are put off by the big long uptrend, thinkiing they have mossed out

percy

25-02-2014, 06:21 PM

No unfortunately.Like all great shares it always appears to be too expensive.Then away it goes again.
A few months ago a broker recommended selling TEL in NZ and buying RHC.I thought this was wrong.Proved to be I was wrong.
I think TEL are up about 7% while RHC are up about 33%.

ratkin

26-02-2014, 05:39 AM

morning star and their valuations are a complete joke. Before yesterdays result they valued the stock at 23 dollars a share. Now they suddenly raise it to 46 dollars a share. shame ASB can't have access to better research reports

pedro.nz

26-02-2014, 01:55 PM

Has reached $50 this morning :t_up: so like you Ratkin I am a pretty happy man as this is now my largest long term hold.
Hospitals and retirement homes seem to be good sectors to be in at the moment.

55505551

Toulouse - Luzern

26-02-2014, 06:18 PM

Hi Pedro

That is a beautiful chart.

Better than a Picasso.

That's why I take it in the ASX Competition on Sharetrader.

Bon chance

ratkin

24-04-2014, 05:52 PM

CHAIRMAN and founder of Ramsay Health Care, Paul Ramsay has been admitted to hospital in Europe

Lets hope its not as bad as it sounds

winner69

02-05-2014, 02:36 PM

CHAIRMAN and founder of Ramsay Health Care, Paul Ramsay has been admitted to hospital in Europe

Lets hope its not as bad as it sounds

Sadly he has passed away

Interesting what happens now .... no wife, no kids ....interests going to caharitable trust

ratkin

07-11-2014, 04:53 PM

Six months since the last post , yet the company once again at record high.
A fine example of a great healthcare investment , like CSL that just keeps trucking along with little fanfare.
So many would rather chase get rich quick stocks, and ignore the likes of Ramsay which for at least 10 years have been increasing eps by 15-20%

looking though the thread from the start, it appears the high PE has consistantly put people off entering. Healthcare has been the backbone of my portfolio for well over a decade now, the aging population etc provides so much of a tail wind that it was hard to ignore.

RHC CSL COH RYM SUM. EBO. Sailed through the gfc with this lot, without losing a minute of sleep. MY only regret was selling FPH in a moment of weakness

OldRider

07-11-2014, 06:28 PM

Ratkin:
I am sure you are on a profitable track, Another to add would be iShares Health. Health has grown to be the dominant theme I own. It took many years to learn that rather than chasing individual companies it was more profitable and less work to choose
a geographic region then the industry, then the company.

ratkin

26-02-2015, 12:22 PM

What a cracking result, everything improving by at least 20% AGAIN
Hardly gets a mention on here, but its gone from 10 to 70 dollars(nearly) without a hiccup.

“Our operations around the world are all performing solidly and the global demand for
healthcare remains high due to population growth; increasing consumer wealth; government
programs to expand access to healthcare and an ageing population (the global population over
60 is forecast to triple by 2050) ,” Mr Rex said.

Based on the strength of the first half results and the continuation of robust growth across all our
operations, and barring unforeseen circumstances, Ramsay is targeting Core NPAT and Core
EPS growth of 18% to 20% for FY2015 (previously 14% to 16%) including nine months of
Générale de Santé.

macduffy

26-02-2015, 01:13 PM

Yes, what a great performer over an extended period of time!

One of those companies that I often looked at, admired, but concluded that it was already priced for perfection. Oh, well....

:(

ratkin

26-02-2015, 01:19 PM

Yes, what a great performer over an extended period of time!

One of those companies that I often looked at, admired, but concluded that it was already priced for perfection. Oh, well....

:(

Seems difficult to go wrong with healthcare stocks, the aging population gives such a massive boost to prospects, not a theme that is going away anytime soon.
I reckon you just need to be patient and wait for a decent pullback, there has to be one sooner or later

macduffy

26-02-2015, 01:54 PM

Seems difficult to go wrong with healthcare stocks, the aging population gives such a massive boost to prospects, not a theme that is going away anytime soon.
I reckon you just need to be patient and wait for a decent pullback, there has to be one sooner or later

I agree with that. I have a full hand of the NZ retirement village stocks - despite what some might say about that theme being played out - and EBO has been one of my biggest holdings since the days it was Early Bros Dental and Medical. I'll keep an eye on RHC but have a feeling that that opportunity has passed me by!

ratkin

27-08-2015, 02:04 PM

Another cracking result another 20% gain in eps and profit.
If only all stocks were this good

Joshuatree

27-08-2015, 02:12 PM

Yes year after year.I'm planning on getting onboard at some point. How long have you been in ratlin and what was your entry price if you don't mind sharing, no prob if not.

ratkin

27-08-2015, 02:38 PM

Yes year after year.I'm planning on getting onboard at some point. How long have you been in ratlin and what was your entry price if you don't mind sharing, no prob if not.

First lot in 2006 then some more in 2008 average entry price around 10 dollars

Joshuatree

03-09-2015, 09:38 AM

So many would rather chase get rich quick stocks, and ignore the likes of Ramsay which for at least 10 years have been increasing eps by 15-20%

looking though the thread from the start, it appears the high PE has consistantly put people off entering. Healthcare has been the backbone of my portfolio for well over a decade now, the aging population etc provides so much of a tail wind that it was hard to ignore.

RHC CSL COH RYM SUM. EBO. Sailed through the gfc with this lot, without losing a minute of sleep. MY only regret was selling FPH in a moment of weakness

Some fantastic gains there with minimal risk.Yes FPH a premier Investment grade stock too. If this correction deepens i will have my chance to pick up some RHC and others like REH ,ARB ,WES, CSL,AZJ, ONT, Banks , WOW even etc.Any similar quality stocks on your watch list?

ratkin

03-09-2015, 01:53 PM

Some fantastic gains there with minimal risk.Yes FPH a premier Investment grade stock too. If this correction deepens i will have my chance to pick up some RHC and others like REH ,ARB ,WES, CSL,AZJ, ONT, Banks , WOW even etc.Any similar quality stocks on your watch list?

Will just top up on CSL , RHC COH etc, however cant see them really falling much anyway, but you never know.
If only i just stuck to these healthcare stockss would be much better off. Took a silly punt on slater and gordon a few days ago, and already been stopped out. Should have just bought nmore RHC instead.

Im very wary of WOW have seen how competition from Aldi etc, screwed over the UK supermarkets, WOW facing uphill battle

kiora

03-09-2015, 02:03 PM

Will just top up on CSL , RHC COH etc, however cant see them really falling much anyway, but you never know.
If only i just stuck to these healthcare stockss would be much better off. Took a silly punt on slater and gordon a few days ago, and already been stopped out. Should have just bought nmore RHC instead.

Im very wary of WOW have seen how competition from Aldi etc, screwed over the UK supermarkets, WOW facing uphill battle

Hi Ratkin
I concur with what you are saying.I loaded your portfolio into a watch list last time you mentioned your healthcare stocks.Certainly little volatility & respectable returns.Do you still hold OFX & NEU or was it NRT ?

Joshuatree

03-09-2015, 02:47 PM

Yeah WOW is at the wrong end of its cycle atm but it will rise again an the future imo but yes its down the bottom end of picks.

ratkin

03-09-2015, 03:11 PM

Hi Ratkin
I concur with what you are saying.I loaded your portfolio into a watch list last time you mentioned your healthcare stocks.Certainly little volatility & respectable returns.Do you still hold OFX & NEU or was it NRT ?

No OFX and NEU went a while back

Joshuatree

14-09-2017, 01:13 PM

RHC has headed into a rare buy zone occasion dropping from $75 is to $64 is'h atm. Vol picking up but the bottom, is it firm.?

Joshuatree

14-09-2017, 02:16 PM

Being shorted by Aitken if u believe this manager
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/ramsay-healthcare-rhc-why-we-remain-short

Yoda

01-03-2018, 11:43 AM

ASB have Ramsay currently undervalued by 30%? Target price of $82

ratkin

01-03-2018, 12:15 PM

ASB have Ramsay currently undervalued by 30%? Target price of $82

Have kept a close watch on this since selling out a couple of years ago. In that time the stock has gone nowhere. For the first time in many years growth seems to have slowed. The big questions are is it only a temporary blip, and has the stalled growth been reflected in the stalled sp?
I see little reason why it would start to rise any time soon, certainly 82 looks far too optimistic

Yoda

01-03-2018, 10:18 PM

Have kept a close watch on this since selling out a couple of years ago. In that time the stock has gone nowhere. For the first time in many years growth seems to have slowed. The big questions are is it only a temporary blip, and has the stalled growth been reflected in the stalled sp?
I see little reason why it would start to rise any time soon, certainly 82 looks far too optimistic
Yea I agree. I did the same in 2015 and sold again as it was going no where. I hadbought at the top of the run I think, So won’t be rushing back .

Joshuatree

07-06-2018, 01:01 PM

28% by vol shorted on ASX tues. S/P still dropping. credit Suisse for one have down graded. Am watching for my first entry into this high grade investment stock.

h2so4

07-06-2018, 02:29 PM

28% by vol shorted on ASX tues. S/P still dropping. credit Suisse for one have down graded. Am watching for my first entry into this high grade investment stock.

I had a close look in 2015/16 not a buyer then and not a buyer now.

Joshuatree

07-06-2018, 02:54 PM

Curious why not h2so4. Be int in your opinion.

h2so4

07-06-2018, 04:38 PM

Curious why not h2so4. Be int in your opinion.

I have no doubt they are high grade investment stock. $11.5b market cap and a great company.

They have a high capital spend.
In 2015/16 market cap was $12.8b. I could not get my valuation above 11.3 which is made up of discount cashflow plus equity. So no discount to market or margin of safety there.

Fast forward to 2018
Market cap $11.5b.
Investment capital now $9.2b
High capital spending still. Profit margin has fallen with lower return on capital and lower cash return as an investment.
No need for spread sheet for cashflow and understandable why it’s being shorted.

herbert240

08-06-2018, 03:50 PM

Is RHC now a "sell"? Already down $10.00 on buy price (broker recommendation) maybe its time to cut losses before it tanks any further.

Joshuatree

08-06-2018, 04:26 PM

Not a nice situ for u herbert . Im waiting to hopefully buy so cant really offer you much .Averaging down is one option .But downtrend hasn't finished yet by the looks. You've bought high and want to sell low, wrong way around. How long is your time frame on this stock.

Im not holding atp but Im watching for a possible buy. Out of favour and down graded by credit suisse ?etc.. Their return on capital invested in hosps in france and Gt britain are low, have failed. Selling up and a return of capital to shareholders or more hosps in aus, asia etc a strong possibility.
Questions and doubts about PH affordability and PH patients admitting themselves to Public hospitals. The Govt will have to keep incentivising the Private health sector as the Public system like here and elsewhere is creaking and a bottomless hole $ wise. On top of that the accelerating ageing pop ensures private health have a good future imo.

Appreciate your reply h2so4 thanks.

h2so4

08-06-2018, 04:45 PM

Is RHC now a "sell"? Already down $10.00 on buy price (broker recommendation) maybe its time to cut losses before it tanks any further.

Maybe. You don’t have to make it back the same way.

percy

08-06-2018, 04:54 PM

We live in interesting times.?
Macquarie's research 3/5/2018 they rated RHC an Outperform with a target price of $74.50.

herbert240

08-06-2018, 04:55 PM

Thanks for your input JT. A bit tricky really...its part of wifes inherited portfolio. When she took it over her financial adviser (whom she can't see past!) convinced her into putting some funds into the Australian market. Three of the five she bought have done ok but RHC and CBA haven't. I have tried to stay on the sidelines but it has been rather difficult to watch value disappearing at a rapid rate! (Even she is starting to wonder I think) And as you say RHC 's decline hasn't steadied yet.

percy

08-06-2018, 05:01 PM

Joshuatree

08-06-2018, 05:01 PM

Craigs have a t/p of $68.61 with a hold rating fwiw A bit of research below. Credit suisse target of $56.50 but havnt verified this, or their sentiment.
"Increased public hospital funding
A new public hospital agreement is forecast to deliver more than $30bn of additional funding between FY21 and FY25 (up 30% over the previous 5 years). There has been some criticism of public hospitals targeting privately insured patients to improve their finances. Therefore, increased public hospital funding could lead to more privately insured episodes being undertaken in private hospitals, which could benefit RHC and HSO. However, public hospitals have argued that they do not actively pursue private patients, so there may not be much benefit to the private hospitals from an increase in public hospital funding."

$56.49 and dropping atp. have just bought a starter parcel.

herbert240

08-06-2018, 05:02 PM

Thanks also h2s04 and Percy

babymonster

09-06-2018, 04:42 PM

I have averaged down with small parcels. Still sitting with a 10% paper lost but not too worried

Joshuatree

19-06-2018, 01:18 PM

Am 8% up in re a week on this high conviction investment grade stock atpit.

ratkin

21-06-2018, 11:39 AM

NHS demand management strategies are having a significant negativeimpact on volumes despite the significant and increasing number of people in the UK awaiting treatment.

In addition to the significant downturn in NHS volumes in Ramsay’s UK business, Ramsay has alsoexperienced weaker growth rates in procedural work and inpatient admissions in its Australian operations inrecent months as well as delays in the rollout of the Ramsay Pharmacy franchise network.

EPS growth is now expected to be approximately 7% compared to theguidance of 8% to 10% previously provided

Might end the recent resurgence in price

Joshuatree

21-06-2018, 12:15 PM

Thanks ratkin. Some of that is built in already esp the UK (and France) issues. I plan to be adding on weakness(was surprised it bounced so much so quickly) as this is a long term investment for me not a trade. Basically the govt will have to rely on private health more and more and the rapidly ageing population ensure RHC being a good investment longer term imo. DYOR
UK Non-cash Provisioning and FY18 Guidance Update (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/4258245/)

Joshuatree

21-06-2018, 12:25 PM

Down 9.4% atm to where it was when i bought in, -re 15-20cc. Watching.

Joshuatree

22-06-2018, 06:04 PM

ratkin

23-06-2018, 07:00 AM

$56.01 atm was as low as $55.63. My broker ,Craigs has come out with a buy on it today. A long term play. Value stocks good value atm:) generally . for some weird reason growth stocks are being chased up.

The best analysis on it I have seen is by Colin Nicholson
https://www.bwts.com.au/

You would have to subscribe to see it, but his website is well worth joining. Very honest guy. Some years ago was the best 60 dollars I ever spent

Joshuatree

23-06-2018, 10:38 AM

Thanks ratkin,I take colin is negative re your last post " "? Had a quick look on his website. Does Colin research many stocks over a year?. Im just gauging whether to take a sub.

Joshuatree

23-06-2018, 11:51 AM

From MF.via scram on H/C

"A note out of Deutsche Bank reveals that its analysts have upgraded Ramsay to a buy rating from hold with a price target of $63.92. Although Deutsche expects the next couple of years to be a challenge for the private hospital giant, it believes its valuation is attractive in comparison to some of its global peers. Especially after its sizeable share price decline yesterday."

ratkin

23-06-2018, 12:02 PM

Thanks ratkin,I take colin is negative re your last post " "? Had a quick look on his website. Does Colin research many stocks over a year?. Im just gauging whether to take a sub.

The good long term ones he does. Ramsey was in his portfolio so very detailed on that one. Not sure if he still holds. He very strong on gauging the overall market too. There a ton of information on his site well worth 60 dollars

Joshuatree

23-06-2018, 12:11 PM

Good read, private patients treated in public hosp increasing yearly up to 20% of hosp patients. One cost is public (without private insurance)waiting times for opps have increased as hosps make more money out of private patients and incentivise these private patients to go public.Etc.
http://www.apha.org.au/wp-content/u...-Patients-in-Public-Hospitals-August-2017.pdf (http://www.apha.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Private-Patients-in-Public-Hospitals-August-2017.pdf)

Joshuatree

23-06-2018, 12:22 PM

And this also happening public hosts sending patients to private, public needs private and the Govt will incentivise private to save themselves $billions in the bottomless public health system $ hole.

https://www.health.qld.gov.au/sunshinecoast/patients-and-visitors/scuph-public (https://www.health.qld.gov.au/sunshinecoast/patients-and-visitors/scuph-public)

Joshuatree

24-06-2018, 05:52 PM

Good research from Clime and point taken that aus is not in a good cycle atm although Britain and france look to be at the bottom or beginning of an upcycle.I was thinking of a two year turn around but maybe longer and thats ok in my investment portfolio. Havnt taken a 2nd bite at this yet, holding off for more weakness, a bit of correction or down week in the mkts. DYOR

https://www.clime.com.au/investing-...mail&utm_campaign=ir-210618&utm_content=title (https://www.clime.com.au/investing-report-archive/how-cheap-is-too-cheap/?omhide=true&utm_source=clime&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ir-210618&utm_content=title)

RupertBear

26-06-2018, 07:54 PM

Joshuatree

26-06-2018, 09:05 PM

Another excellent research piece from Craigs today with an overweight .. Other influencers like c aitken talking it down Be wonderful if it drops lower towards $50, am waiting for my 2nd purchase. DYOR
Shorts increasing 59% on friday by vol ,36% mon

ratkin

27-06-2018, 07:34 AM

Still going down....I am waiting and watching before having a second bite as well....although I am thinking there might be better places to park my money....

Can see why it is being shorted, the chart looks disgusting, difficult to see any glimmer of hope there. Any potential investors should at least wait for the dust to settle.

From 2008 to 2015 it was a beautiful uptrend I already held some at this stage and had an average price of around 10 dollars. EPS etc were all rising nicely and the stock was a no brainer. 2015 to 16 it became very choppy, the numbers were still good but the stock had become expensive, I sold out at this stage during a moment o weakness for around 60 dollars and missed the blowoff which went up to 84

Since october 2016 it has been all downhill 84 down to 54 that quite a drop. Is there any reason to think the fall will suddenly stop and go into reverse? This is the question. At some stage it will, personally will let the charts determine when it is safe, and as I am not a short term trader will be looking for some of the longer term indicators to show some life.

Here is a negative article to counteract all the positive ones, this might give an indication of factors causing the fall

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/ramsay-the-world-has-changed

Makes an ugly read, but one I am more inclined to believe than the sugar coated stuff coming out of the brokerage houses

Joshuatree

27-06-2018, 09:17 AM

you've had great run ratkin:) int in what you will switch to?. smaller returns from hereon s/p wise and earnings wise for a few years anyway.

population is increasing

aged people dramatically increasing, these are the main hosp users.

2017 and 18, few brownsfield developments, these will be back to norm 2019

procurement savings plan

offshore operations to stabilise?maybe but they've been at it for up to 7 years, maybe flog them off if things dont improve with french and english govt funding etc.

recent private health reform in aus encouraging

rhc trading at the bottom of historic range, overshot?

growth still there but more in high single digit rather then 15 %

h2so4

27-06-2018, 10:14 AM

Morningstar chimed in with an $82 target price??????

RupertBear

27-06-2018, 12:36 PM

Can see why it is being shorted, the chart looks disgusting, difficult to see any glimmer of hope there. Any potential investors should at least wait for the dust to settle.

From 2008 to 2015 it was a beautiful uptrend I already held some at this stage and had an average price of around 10 dollars. EPS etc were all rising nicely and the stock was a no brainer. 2015 to 16 it became very choppy, the numbers were still good but the stock had become expensive, I sold out at this stage during a moment o weakness for around 60 dollars and missed the blowoff which went up to 84

Since october 2016 it has been all downhill 84 down to 54 that quite a drop. Is there any reason to think the fall will suddenly stop and go into reverse? This is the question. At some stage it will, personally will let the charts determine when it is safe, and as I am not a short term trader will be looking for some of the longer term indicators to show some life.

Here is a negative article to counteract all the positive ones, this might give an indication of factors causing the fall

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/ramsay-the-world-has-changed

Makes an ugly read, but one I am more inclined to believe than the sugar coated stuff coming out of the brokerage houses

Yes I agree ratkin the chart is looking really ugly. I also sold out a while ago at around $70 so I am waiting and watching for a turn around before jumping back in...or not

h2so4

27-06-2018, 02:12 PM

Can see why it is being shorted, the chart looks disgusting, difficult to see any glimmer of hope there. Any potential investors should at least wait for the dust to settle.

From 2008 to 2015 it was a beautiful uptrend I already held some at this stage and had an average price of around 10 dollars. EPS etc were all rising nicely and the stock was a no brainer. 2015 to 16 it became very choppy, the numbers were still good but the stock had become expensive, I sold out at this stage during a moment o weakness for around 60 dollars and missed the blowoff which went up to 84

Since october 2016 it has been all downhill 84 down to 54 that quite a drop. Is there any reason to think the fall will suddenly stop and go into reverse? This is the question. At some stage it will, personally will let the charts determine when it is safe, and as I am not a short term trader will be looking for some of the longer term indicators to show some life.

Here is a negative article to counteract all the positive ones, this might give an indication of factors causing the fall

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/ramsay-the-world-has-changed

Makes an ugly read, but one I am more inclined to believe than the sugar coated stuff coming out of the brokerage houses

I agree rankin. Whatever motivates the ASB to hang a green buy banner around the share price on their website.

Joshuatree

27-06-2018, 02:47 PM

h2so4

27-06-2018, 03:27 PM

you mean morning star i take it. $82 target buy. I dont take any notice of them personally.
fwiw 4traders 3 buys 3 outperforms 4 holds and 1 underperform, av target $66.90

31% shorted by vol yest
$53.94 atm up a little.
indeed the trend is the friend atm.

No I mean the green border that is around the buy on the ASB online trading platform. I've seen it before with other shares they light them up like traffic lights.

h2so4

27-06-2018, 03:30 PM

They must be in cahoots with Morningstar.

Joshuatree

27-06-2018, 04:24 PM

So thats how i ended up with this portfolio, i thought it was a kinda 6th sense channelled sorta thing ,through all the minds on share trader!?:mellow::D

h2so4

27-06-2018, 05:10 PM

That is spooky.

winner69

04-07-2018, 10:03 AM

Share price seems to be settling down in low 50s

Going to start going up from here?

h2so4

04-07-2018, 11:11 AM

Share price seems to be settling down in low 50s

Going to start going up from here?

ASB still have the buy button coloured green.

Joshuatree

04-07-2018, 11:28 AM

Lol , funny of the day so far, thanks:t_up:
Too early to tell?.Vol has tapered away since the big 4 mill spike. Wanting a 2nd carton of shares, watching.Find it very hard to wait until the 60DMA is reached, not my nature:(

Joshuatree

06-07-2018, 06:46 PM

Finished up 1.7% today with a steady climb , +91c with a large re 85,000/trade,right at the end of the day to $54.47. Bottom may have been yest ,low $53 but may be more overhang to go yet.

RupertBear

06-07-2018, 08:55 PM

Finished up 1.7% today with a steady climb , +91c with a large re 85,000/trade,right at the end of the day to $54.47. Bottom may have been yest ,low $53 but may be more overhang to go yet.

I jumped back on board yesterday, it may go down a bit more but I can live with that and may buy a few more, otherwise onward and upward please :)

Patient Panda

07-07-2018, 04:59 PM

ratkin

07-07-2018, 05:54 PM

A bit peeved after having my offer in at 53.00 on thursday and being absolutely certain it would be triggered when it got all the way down to 53.01 but somehow it wasn’t to be :(. Hopefully will get my hands on some early next week.

Never put in an order at a whole number, for One thing if it is filled probably means the stock is going even lower, and if it does act as support then you might not get filled which is what happened to you. In this case though I suspect you may not have to wait too long. A real patient Panda would wait a few months.

Patient Panda

07-07-2018, 09:58 PM

Never put in an order at a whole number, for One thing if it is filled probably means the stock is going even lower, and if it does act as support then you might not get filled which is what happened to you. In this case though I suspect you may not have to wait too long. A real patient Panda would wait a few months.

Thanks for the tips, very helpful.

i have no idea what its going to do in the short term it might go well below 53$ or it might not. I do think on a valuation basis it is looking quite attractive. Not too long till FY results announced and no updates suggest their forecasted 8-10% increase is still on the cards putting them on a pretty low forward P/E ~19 (from memory) for a company of their pedigree seems good value.

To me they have many similarities with Ryman healthcare both with their consistent increasing value and great ROE, great management and industry / tailwinds. It is interesting though, how they differ in the way they grow with Ryman building new villages whereas Ramsay do almost the opposite with their acquisitions and brownfield developments but of course what matters are the results!

winner69

08-07-2018, 08:39 AM

Panda ....the 8%-10% is now only 7% (and not good signs for next year)

Did you miss recent announcement?

And how many zillions are they going to write off ...that’s your homework question?

Patient Panda

08-07-2018, 09:30 AM

Panda ....the 8%-10% is now only 7% (and not good signs for next year)

Did you miss recent announcement?

And how many zillions are they going to write off ...that’s your homework question?

thanks, Winner I had actually missed that latest update as you wisely noticed ;). No impact to cashflows but reasonably large writedowns over onerous lease provisioning. I tried googling what it means but had no luck and can only muster vague guesses so if you guys know please share.

what are your thoughts re. Future writedowns winner?

it does seem like this is just some short term pain and RHC seem to be responding in all the right ways. Surely with an increasing population in Aus and especially in their main cities plus the aging tide and an unwillingness for a lot of spending on new public hospitals by the Turnbull Govt. the pressure must be building and at some point the dam must burst in Ramsays favour.

Less sure about UK but I believe fundamentals should be sound

winner69

08-07-2018, 10:53 AM

Yes panda the $125m is non-cash but it was once cash eh. Essentially means that past acquisitions haven't worked out as they though they would ...and some would say they paid too much for them.

Getting a bit of a habit this provisioning ..... didn't the first half have a big restructuring provision as well?

But as long as they keep coming up with this 'Core Net Profit' which ignores the bad things it'll all be OK. We need to trust them eh

'Patient' a good handle / nickname for investing in hospitals .....the gods coud be working in your favour

In spite of JTs ramping I'm being patient ... share price might go into the $40s. Chart looks terrible since the price started declining from $80 odd .....get the odd good signals to suck punters into buying but soon reverts back to its downward trend eh

Joshuatree

08-07-2018, 11:54 AM

Pot calling the kettle black there w69, but if you really want a showdown you will get it full bore. Some may notice RHC is a multi billion cap stock on the ASX and not a tiny stock or low liquidity stock that can be pumped;).

Im slowly building a portfolio of investment grade stocks for my retirement and have had RHC on my list for sometime.It has a track record 2nd to none and i believe it will come right , the aus govt needs PH to stick around like an egg needs a carton. Im building a stake and one thing i can agree on, being patient and averaging in is a good tactic. Using KW's simple chart reccos also helpful. A slow burner . not expecting stellar gains on this one. DYOR .

Joshuatree

08-07-2018, 11:58 AM

Using TA to time entries and exits (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits)

Brovendell

08-07-2018, 02:43 PM

Rule 1: Never buy in a downtrend!!:t_down:

winner69

08-07-2018, 03:00 PM

Using TA to time entries and exits (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits)

KW had good advice bless her soul - she said “My favourite entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MAT”

With both of those MA above $60 not a good time to be buying in?

Maybe need to wait until the MAs fall closer to the current share price

RupertBear

08-07-2018, 07:03 PM

KW had good advice bless her soul - My favourite entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MA

With both of those MA above $60 not a good time to be buying in?

Maybe need to wait until the MAs fall closer to the current share price

Wise words Winner, I have probably jumped the gun again buying in on a downtrend. :( Dam. I will wait patiently now and watch the TA indicators more closely before deciding when or if to top up ;)

Joshuatree

16-07-2018, 08:47 PM

So far so good vol and price wise Rupert...... but early days.Tomorrow may be up/down due to .....
An RHC subsidiary has made a takeover bid which has been rejected atp.RHC offering a fullish price for it, ive read so holders may be relieved about the NO but nervous about a sweeter too.

Ramsay Generale de Sante makes unsolicited bid for Capio AB (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/4303878/)

winner69

17-07-2018, 03:13 PM

The CEO Rex gets paid pretty well

A figure of$86m over the last 2 years is mentioned in this report

https://www.acsi.org.au/images/stories/ACSIDocuments/generalresearchpublic/CEO-Pay-in-ASX200-Companies-2017.Jul18.pdf

Joshuatree

17-07-2018, 04:06 PM

aargh, thats pretty horrendous!:scared: Seems snoutish doesn't it. Even for an $11 Billion mkt cap company which has performed incredibly well with 10% + returns until this year and s/p re $10, 10 years ago now $55 plus ,was $80 not long ago . Dont know if Rex has been there that long. Its all out of my knowledge how they justify and set salaries and bonuses seem a rort and terminal payoffs after inflicting damage to the company is incendiary to me. Good article thanks w69.

RupertBear

18-07-2018, 03:03 PM

winner69

19-08-2018, 08:57 PM

From The Australian

Private health insurance statistics released by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority show that another 57,512 Australians ditched hospital cover in the June quarter.

By the end of June, only 45.1 per cent of the population had hospital cover — the lowest level in eight years.

Morgan Stanley analysts said the fact members continue to leave the private health insurance industry would likely reinforce falling volume trends in hospitals.

The analysts said that trend highlighted a risk to expectations for Ramsay Health Care’s fiscal 2019 earnings per share.

Morgan Stanley said the recent data had increased its conviction that Ramsay’s fiscal 2019 EPS growth would be flat at best, with around a 10 per cent in fall in the share price to around $50. Shares in Ramsay are trading around $55.80.

ratkin

20-08-2018, 04:17 AM

From The Australian

The analysts said that trend highlighted a risk to expectations for Ramsay Health Care’s fiscal 2019 earnings per share.

Morgan Stanley said the recent data had increased its conviction that Ramsay’s fiscal 2019 EPS growth would be flat at best, with around a 10 per cent in fall in the share price to around $50. Shares in Ramsay are trading around $55.80.

Yep, seems little reason for anyone to hold this stock at present. After Ten years ofgreat growth it can take a while for people to realise the good times are over

Joshuatree

20-08-2018, 10:20 AM

Health insurance cover now 45.5% from a peak of 47.4% in 2015 , a 4% decline for context. It does appear to be at the wrong end of the cycle. The govt cant afford to let companies like RHC fail though so some incentives need to be offered. Heres another research note agreeing the short term not so good.

How cheap is too cheap?

Thursday, June 21st, 2018
Ramsay Health Care shares were battered to 52-week lows recently by capitulation selling in response to a negative broker report. It’s been a tough two years for shareholders in the former market darling, whose shares have trended lower from a peak over $84 in September 2016 to below $60 today. The resignation of the former popular and highly regarded CEO was followed by two lower-quality earnings results, vocal short-selling and calls by analysts for the premium earnings multiple to de-rate. The stock is now well out of favour.
Given Ramsay’s earlier record of growth and investment quality, value investors will be asking if this is an opportunity. We think it is, but only on a three-year view and there could be more downside yet. Weighing growth, capital management and risk Ramsay is currently worth around $60 – not much more than current prices. Near-term, the stock could drift lower if the market decides the 19 times multiple on forward consensus earnings is too high for a stock with single-digit growth.
Ramsay is often described as a go-to play on population ageing given surgery and hospital-delivered interventions for the baby boomers are set to grow as this cohort ages. The central problem for shareholders today however is the Australian growth curve from ageing is two years away and meanwhile Ramsay is caught in a marked cyclical and structural slowdown in private hospital admissions. Meanwhile the French and UK operations, which together contribute some 20 per cent of operating earnings, are ex-growth. The interim result reported in February missed market expectations on revenue and only just met guidance due to lower tax and interest expense than expected.
Investors still acknowledge Ramsay for its operational quality and clinical excellence, which are crucial to attracting doctors and patients. For this reason, its scale and the superior locations of the group’s Australian hospitals, Ramsay attracts a more profitable casemix than peers and has taken market share over time.
It can probably continue to do so but even Ramsay can’t fight the slowdown in private hospital industry volume growth from seven per cent per annum 10 years ago to 2.8 per cent this year. Australians are turning their backs on private health insurance and private healthcare, due mainly to declining affordability. Over the last five years private health insurance premiums compounded at 5.8 per cent per annum, faster than average wage growth of around two per cent. Awareness of the high out-of-pocket costs of surgery and accommodation in private hospitals has grown.
Hospital private health insurance coverage is down to 45.5 per cent from a recent peak of 47.4 per cent in the March quarter of 2015. Exclusions within policies are more popular, causing some insureds not to be covered for all surgeries. The resulting increase in high-end surgeries in the public sector is one main reason for the deterioration in casemix for private hospitals. We do not expect the federal government’s October 2017 reforms to private health insurance (gold, silver, bronze and basic policies from April 2019) will materially reduce the trends away from membership and towards more exclusionary policies. There is also no broad acceleration in wages underway to restore the affordability of membership.
Consumers who kept their private health policies are increasingly using them for admission to public hospitals, which cover more costs than private hospitals including policy excesses. Public hospitals have incentives to pursue private business because it shifts costs from the states/territories back to the Commonwealth, which so far has not introduced policies to limit the shift of private patients into public hospitals.
Healthcare services stocks always carry elevated political/legislative risk given intensive regulation. While we do not expect the federal opposition, if elected, would remove or further dilute the private health insurance rebate, its policy to cap growth in premiums at two per cent per annum for two years would almost certainly damage private hospital profitability by reducing contracted payments from insurers while costs keep rising regardless. The sharemarket is already starting to price in this risk given the opposition is competitive in the polls. The policy probably wouldn’t increase private health insurance membership given funds would respond with more exclusions, higher excesses and greater co-payments.
Meanwhile, Ramsay’s acquisitions in the UK and France remain unproven. Tariff cuts and disappointing volume growth have forced the company to bolster earnings by cutting costs.
Having considered this gloomy bear case, investors now need to ask if it is fully priced in by the fall in the share price. As long as the government is returned at the next election, we consider Ramsay is worth $60 per share and would be oversold at $54, where the forward earnings multiple would be too low at 17 times.
It is also important to stand aside from the gloom and ask if the consensus earnings downgrades have now ended. Large-cap stocks like Ramsay are intensively researched and react quickly to changing perceptions of earnings fundamentals. While the stock is not about to return to its glory days of double-digit earnings growth, and profitability will fall due to less operating leverage from slower growth in Australia, we do think tariffs in France and the UK have bottomed. There was a 0.75 per cent average tariff increase in the UK in April and French President Macron has said he will not seek further cost savings from the healthcare sector over the next four years. The UK National Health Service’s demand management strategies, which inflate surgery waiting lists, are also unsustainable. All this means probably no further downgrades to earnings forecasts for Ramsay’s European operations and adds to the case the share price is within a few dollars of bottoming. We would see further weakness from downgrades to forecasts for Ramsay’s Australian business as an opportunity.

Clime Group owns shares in RHC.

https://www.clime.com.au/investing-...mail&utm_campaign=ir-210618&utm_content=title (https://www.clime.com.au/investing-report-archive/how-cheap-is-too-cheap/?omhide=true&utm_source=clime&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ir-210618&utm_content=title)

Joshuatree

21-08-2018, 11:54 PM

RHC's takeover offer stymied. S/P up tomorrow in a relief rally?

News: RHC Swedish healthcare firm Capio to sell French business to Vivalto Sante (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/news-rhc-swedish-healthcare-firm-capio-to-sell-french-business-to-vivalto-sante.4373513/?post_id=35072549)

winner69

30-08-2018, 01:24 PM

Forecast eps growth +2% for F19 not that great

Joshuatree

11-01-2019, 01:22 PM

RHC at a 6 -7 month high vol looking good too up re 10% since december , a defensive global stock..

Global industry growth fundamentals, check the stats here!!!
The number of people aged over 65 has increased to more than 656 million, or 11.5% of the total population
Globally, chronic disease prevalence is growing quickly, most prominently, cancer, heart disease, and diabetes. 415M diabetics in 2018 expected to increase to 642M by 2040.
Depression is the leading cause of ill health and disability worldwide. More than 300 million people are now living with depression, an increase of more than 18% between 2005 and 2015

Last presentation in novManaging Directors Presentation to the 2018 AGM (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/4534691/)

wizAlvin

13-01-2019, 09:27 AM

Joshuatree are u entering comp - close in hours

Joshuatree

25-02-2019, 02:51 PM

Yep, seems little reason for anyone to hold this stock at present. After Ten years ofgreat growth it can take a while for people to realise the good times are over

Bottomed re $53 in October 18 ,now just over $60.Not stellar as the mkt has been crazy up last few months but a slow burner longterm imo. Govt's have to incentivise the public to go private. Still holding.RHC looks good T/A wise too (basic M/A, stock, RSI).

Joshuatree

28-02-2019, 02:49 PM

RupertBear

28-02-2019, 04:11 PM

Hit $65 today :t_up: on reassuring results, through a difficult period, nearly every figure is up and the outlook for that 2% increase in EPS , mkt applauds.60DMA has shot through 180 DMA
Download Document 181.04KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4g25z hb1v%2BVx%2FLFiGug%3D)

Well done on holding Joshuatree. I sold out last year and almost jumped back in when it was hovering around $53 but dithered too long. May buy in again if it drops back down.

Joshuatree

23-01-2020, 03:33 PM

A$79.35 today re a 39% gain in one year, eat that :t_up:

RupertBear

24-01-2020, 11:12 PM

A$79.35 today re a 39% gain in one year, eat that :t_up:

Well done keeping the faith when I didnt, you have been well rewarded :)

ratkin

28-02-2020, 04:47 PM

Why is Ramsay being smacked particularly hard today? Are hospitals not a good thing in an epidemic?

Joshuatree

28-02-2020, 04:53 PM

Tide is taking pretty well everything out on these big panic sell days. Hope to top up at some point

Download Document 1.65MB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4Q61y xn2v%2BVx%2FLFiGug%3D) An analyst i rate likes the result.

rooster

03-03-2020, 04:16 PM

ratkin

22-04-2020, 06:26 PM

Any ideas on the trading halt?

percy

22-04-2020, 06:31 PM

Capital raising at $45.00 SPP $30,000.

Joshuatree

22-04-2020, 06:41 PM

A$56.00. Unfortunately have missed out on the $1,200 mill placement, have to be a "Wholesale" Investor or Insto. So $200 mill to scrap over, will be hugely diluted imo. Have applied for the full $30 k.
Download Document 396.24KB (https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4Qy9y xPxv%2BVx%2FLFiGug%3D)

Joshuatree

25-05-2020, 11:45 AM

tango

25-05-2020, 04:24 PM

Looks like my holdings will be increased by a third. RHC extended the raise from $200 to $ 300 mill but scale back pro rata. Hope to add more later in the year if/when the recession really starts to bite.

Ramsay Health Care Completes Share Purchase Plan 2 pages 451.3KB (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02238023)

Thanks for the update. I figured there would be scaling to 30-40% and only put in enough funds to cover scaling to 50% so I could keep $$$ free for other SPP offers :)

Joshuatree

20-04-2022, 03:01 PM

percy

20-04-2022, 03:47 PM

Sold a little while ago , building cash for other investments.Been an ok park and ride.Up re 25% today on takeover offer.Sa la vie

https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4Ai1y hH0v%2BVx%2FLFiGug%3D

The Trust I help out on holds.Only a small amount,but at current share price a good amount in dollars...