THL - Tourism Holdings

[Raz]

A report on NZ Radio today picked THL as a major winner from the US company tax "reforms".

I don't hold.

My company in LA will do very well out of the tax reforms..although already had the local bagman for the GOP call for another corporate donation..wonder if that happens to THL as well ?

[Raz]

I go on holidays to enjoy life 😀. Before claiming this is an expensive mode of travel in peak season, look at how much it would cost you to stay in hotels/motels for the same time. If you can get accommodation that is. Particularly if you want to visit Central Otago and Milford Sounds or upper NI

Yes, was in Queenstown early December..was looking at 475-650$ range for a decent hotel in Queenstown...swiped one of my airbnb's instead.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/f5f9ac37/tourism-holdings-expects-up-to-3m-annual-recurring-benefit-from-us-tax-changes.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Tourism%20Holdings%20expects%20up%20t o%203M%20annual%20recurring%20benefit%20from%20US% 20tax%20changes&utm_content=Tourism%20Holdings%20expects%20up%20to %203M%20annual%20recurring%20benefit%20from%20US%2 0tax%20changes+CID_96efd6d77896f3c648b465c5e8fd062 8&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlef5f9ac37touris m-holdings-expects-up-to-3m-annual-recurring-benefit-from-us-tax-changeshtml

Very nice :)

[RupertBear]

Yes I quickly bought the ones I sold back again :mellow:

(Stupid impulsive bear!) Note to self work on impulsive control :D

[Justin]

Merry Christmas Video from THL

https://youtu.be/5B5SftTuWpc

Watch it and Like it :t_up:

[Beagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sgu3r8863jU

[sammiesmiles]

Will the sp reach $6 by the half year result announcement ?

[winner69]

Will the sp reach $6 by the half year result announcement ?

Certainty

The world is a happy place at the moment so the positive sentiment will drive thl to $6 plus

the $50m profit in a year or two not priced in yet

[Beagle]

Just having a quick look at the benefit they talked about the other day from the tax changes in the U.S.
Leaving aside as a separate matter the cash flow benefits of immediate deductibility of plant and equipment and one presumes this includes RV's and just looking at the recurring benefit of ~ $3m extra profit per annum they talked about as a preliminary figure. On 121m shares this gives a recurring benefit of 2.479 cps. Put a PE of say 18 on that and this gives a theoretical SP boost of 18 x 2.479 = 44.6 cps. Hmmm...market still not priced this in fully ? I think this was ~ $5.50 before the announcement so perhaps $6 isn't far away at all and not unrealistic considering the tax change.

[winner69]

Just having a quick look at the benefit they talked about the other day from the tax changes in the U.S.
Leaving aside as a separate matter the cash flow benefits of immediate deductibility of plant and equipment and one presumes this includes RV's and just looking at the recurring benefit of ~ $3m extra profit per annum they talked about as a preliminary figure. On 121m shares this gives a recurring benefit of 2.479 cps. Put a PE of say 18 on that and this gives a theoretical SP boost of 18 x 2.479 = 44.6 cps. Hmmm...market still not priced this in fully ? I think this was ~ $5.50 before the announcement so perhaps $6 isn't far away at all and not unrealistic considering the tax change.

Punters probably calculated the 2.5 cents and though so what - not much impact here.

Didn’t think of multiplying it by 19 or whatever did they

That’s why you win more often than you lose eh mate

[Beagle]

Punters probably calculated the 2.5 cents and though so what - not much impact here.

Didn’t think of multiplying it by 19 or whatever did they

That’s why you win more often than you lose eh mate

Easy 46 cent feed there, (low hanging fruit) over the last few days for those that chose to stay home and do some homework :) Wish feeds were always this easy...
Probably have a "6" handle at close of quarter books square up at 1.00 p.m. close tomorrow.

[iceman]

I weakened and sold down a few today ..watch it go up swiftly now ;)

Thanks RB. Are you intending on selling a few more soon ? :-)

[RupertBear]

Thanks RB. Are you intending on selling a few more soon ? :-)

Never again iceman! I realised my mistake pretty quickly and bought them back the same day and I am very pleased I did :)

[thestg]

Will the sp reach $6 by the half year result announcement ?

AT $6:00 NOW:t_up:

[sammiesmiles]

CITIC capital has made nearly $15 million capital gain from THL. Great investment!

[Beagle]

CITIC capital has made nearly $15 million capital gain from THL. Great investment!

On the other hand its going to be expensive for them to takeover the company now if they choose to do so. Doubt anyone would consider anything less than $7.50 very seriously. Quite possibly it'll be that price under its own steam by the end of 2018.

[BlackPeter]

CITIC capital has made nearly $15 million capital gain from THL. Great investment!

Might give them a bit more leeway to increase their meager TIL takeover offer ;)

[sammiesmiles]

Haven't heard Milford fund releases any more shares for months.

[Leftfield]

CITIC capital has made nearly $15 million capital gain from THL. Great investment!


Crikey, I've only made $19k so far and I'm happy! Nice to see THL SP inch over $6.00 today.

[JeremyALD]

Wow. Certainly a strong finish to the year!

[iceman]

Wow. Certainly a strong finish to the year!
And much more to come in next 24 months as we head to $50m profit and steadily increased dividends 😉

[Beagle]

Haven't heard Milford fund releases any more shares for months.
Consistently selling in the low - mid $4 range Aug - Sept...What does that suggest about the "merits" of letting others "manage" your money.


And much more to come in next 24 months as we head to $50m profit and steadily increased dividends ��
Couldn't agree more. With their track record we could easily see the $50m profit target being achieved in FY19.

[weasel]

Crikey, I've only made $19k so far and I'm happy! Nice to see THL SP inch over $6.00 today.

Curiously, I've made $19k on them as well!

[Leftfield]

Curiously, I've made $19k on them as well!

Good on you! We are well positioned. Exciting times ahead.

[Benny1]

On the other hand its going to be expensive for them to takeover the company now if they choose to do so. Doubt anyone would consider anything less than $7.50 very seriously. Quite possibly it'll be that price under its own steam by the end of 2018.

Well said! Would hate it if this company were to be taken over.
I think this is one company that every shareholder should be in proud owning !

[Jantar]

Crikey, I've only made $19k so far and I'm happy! Nice to see THL SP inch over $6.00 today.


Curiously, I've made $19k on them as well!

Is this a club? Well I didn't quite get there only made 18.1k. :)

[bull....]

Looks like a good stock on the charts , the big move today is confirming the breakout in price above resistance at 72c.

I dont see any resistance till 1.32 if breakout holds.

Tourism stocks are all being re - rated now

All in all nothing out of the ordinary with price action its in a up - trend

since ya all talking about profit , back when first got into it 110k shares at 75c average would yield a profit of $577000 today lol , if only still had em all oh well.

[Leftfield]

Is this a club? Well I didn't quite get there only made 18.1k. :)

When it comes to exclusive clubs I'm with Groucho Marx who said, "any club that would have me as a member isn't worth joining."

However you have 18.1k reasons to be happy!

[golden city]

Luckily I am still holding my from 46c.

[sammiesmiles]

Luckily I am still holding my from 46c.

So you are almost mortgage free?:cool:

[Beagle]

DCF or multiples don’t matter re valuations - thl is worth what the Chinese are willing to pay

If they offer 6 bucks grant Thornton or whoever will do some sums and say on DCF basis it’s worth $5.90-$6.45

Bring it on please

Posted 30 October 2017. Mate it turned out we didn't need the Chinese to stump up with their hot money and it got there under its own steam, (probably helped to the tune of about 50 cents by Trump's tax cuts). Rob Campbell is a pretty clever guy...wonder how many more year he has left in him ?

[winner69]

Posted 30 October 2017. Mate it turned out we didn't need the Chinese to stump up with their hot money and it got there under its own steam, (probably helped to the tune of about 50 cents by Trump's tax cuts). Rob Campbell is a pretty clever guy...wonder how many more year he has left in him ?

Rob has done wonders with thl hasn’t he. Turned this perennial under performer and market pariah around. For years under previous management regimes (Dennis Pickup in particular) thl was a dog and flea ridden dog at that.

People like Rob deserve to get the knighthoods they generously hand out but doesn’t seem to have ever received anything (maybe declined it). For gods sake people like Denise L'Estrange-Corbet got made a DAME the other day for services to fashion.


Well done Rob anyway

[Beagle]

Rob has done wonders with thl hasn’t he. Turned this perennial under performer and market pariah around. For years under previous management regimes (Dennis Pickup in particular) thl was a dog and flea ridden dog at that.

People like Rob deserve to get the knighthoods they generously hand out but doesn’t seem to have ever received anything (maybe declined it). For gods sake people like Denise L'Estrange-Corbet got made a DAME the other day


Well done Rob anyway
I couldn't agree more mate he sure has ! He has really turned this around over the years from an unloved flea ridden mangy puppy into best of breed show dog that everyone wants to pat and hug. As you quite rightly suggest he's built a legend status that's fully deserving of being recognized as such. Created massive value for shareholders in THL and SUM other companies too. He did look tired, old and rather portly at the SUM annual meeting in April...hope he keeps fit and well and we get many more years of his expertise. Hope someone has a word in his ear about the need for a good exercise regime and better diet...

[Justin]

Hi all. Happy New Year！Hold or Sell in 2018?

[Beagle]

Happy holder here with no intention of selling :)

[Robomo]

Not selling, bought at $1.92 and into DRP as well. My best performer in the past couple of years by a long way and more to come yet.

[iceman]

No intention of selling here. More likely to top up

[minimoke]

Hi all. Happy New Year！Hold or Sell in 2018?Also a long term holder here as well. No intention of selling

[thestg]

Hi all. Happy New Year！Hold or Sell in 2018?

Happy holding. Is 21% of my portfolio.

[glennj]

I've held this one since April 2007 when I bought 20000 shares. The first few years were a bit rocky and I considered selling several times but I'm now sitting on a reasonable paper gain. My bookkeeping programme tells me that the gain from net dividends plus capital gain has averaged 18.5% per annum excluding the value of any imputation credits. This is quite good but I hold eight other NZ shares that have done better within this time period. Tourism seems to be booming at the moment and camper van utilisation rates must be higher than the historic norm so there may be more good news to come. I intend to hold for a while yet.

[Benny1]

Hi all. Happy New Year！Hold or Sell in 2018?

Definitely holding for the long term :), just need to workout a good buying price to pick up a few more!!!

[Justin]

Definitely holding for the long term :), just need to workout a good buying price to pick up a few more!!!
what is the good buying price ？:confused:

[winner69]

what is the good buying price ？:confused:

Methinks $5.95 is pretty good

Especially when you look back when the share price goes over $7.00

[golden city]

Happy holding. 85% of my portfolio

[LAC]

Happy holding. 85% of my portfolio
85% wow!!!!! here I was thinking at 30 odd percent I was too heavy with SUM;) Thanks for that post, I dont have anxiety when I look at my portfolio;)

[Benny1]

what is the good buying price ？:confused:

Could be an interesting watch over the next few days.. There seems to be a bit of profit taking going in so far this week.. Think there is a bit of resistance at $5.90. If it drops below this it may fall a little further...

[JeremyALD]

As Hardt mentioned this often drops to the MA30 or MA60 before climbing back up. Could be a good time to get in.

[see weed]

As Hardt mentioned this often drops to the MA30 or MA60 before climbing back up. Could be a good time to get in.
Which would be around 5.10 to 5.30, correct me if I'm wrong:).

[Justin]

Which would be around 5.10 to 5.30, correct me if I'm wrong:).

I think might be 5.60-5.90

[hardt]

Which would be around 5.10 to 5.30, correct me if I'm wrong:).

Give it a few weeks at the 580-600 range and 30DMA will be up to 560

[Justin]

Today secured at $5.95 despite the horrible weather

[ohpark0119]

http://nzh.tw/11975632

Good to read (read-only)

[Scrunch]

http://nzh.tw/11975632

Good to read

Except that Forsyth were only able to get up to a target price of $5.60 (not something starting with a 6). Then again, their previous target of $4.75 was well south of current market prices. DYOR

[winner69]

Except that Forsyth were only able to get up to a target price of $5.60 (not something starting with a 6). Then again, their previous target of $4.75 was well south of current market prices. DYOR

I take it you think that you think that Suzannes’s valuation is a load of the proverbial?

Interesting though her forecast earnings are higher than ‘company guidance’. The financial models she uses still comes out with a target of about what the price is today...also means her actual valuation of the company is around $5.00

So Suzanne pretty bullish on thl prospects .....can’t deny her that ....maybe thl shareprice currently is a bit high ...and still has a takeover premium baked in?

[Beagle]

http://nzh.tw/11975632

Good to read

So putting my headlights on full beam so to speak if it looks like they'll achieve their $56m in 2020 which on 121m shares = 46.3 cps and ongoing profit growth prospects look sound the stock could continue to trade on a forward PE of about 18 like it is now so we could see late 2019 or early 2020 the SP about 18 x 46.3 cps = $8.33. Further, THL has an excellent track record of beating market expectations. Looks like a sound core portfolio stock to me.

[oldtech]

So Suzanne pretty bullish on thl prospects .....can’t deny her that ....maybe thl shareprice currently is a bit high ...and still has a takeover premium baked in?

It looked to me that the shareprice rose quite sharply during the Christmas holiday period (why, I don't know) to a high of 6.05 on the 29th of December. I felt it had got ahead of itself, and it is now falling back towards the 50 day MA.

Trading currently at 5.68, and from the looks of things could well drop a bit further yet.

[Oliver Mander]

It looked to me that the shareprice rose quite sharply during the Christmas holiday period (why, I don't know) to a high of 6.05 on the 29th of December. I felt it had got ahead of itself, and it is now falling back towards the 50 day MA.

Trading currently at 5.68, and from the looks of things could well drop a bit further yet.

You might be right from a Tech analysis perspective...but from a value / fundamental perspective I think Beagle is closer to the truth. $5.68 actually looks cheap to me, in spite of the large rise over the last few months. Makes a forward PE of less than 18 for a company that is delivering quality growth. I'm honestly surprised its dropping at the moment...perhaps caught up in the general market malaise?

Might even dip my paw in for more...

[Benny1]

You might be right from a Tech analysis perspective...but from a value / fundamental perspective I think Beagle is closer to the truth. $5.68 actually looks cheap to me, in spite of the large rise over the last few months. Makes a forward PE of less than 18 for a company that is delivering quality growth. I'm honestly surprised its dropping at the moment...perhaps caught up in the general market malaise?

Might even dip my paw in for more...

Yep I've got an order in at the moment but may add a few more me thinks....

Good long term hold, would be even better if another acquisition is announced over the next year or so...as AIR likes to say...Where to next???

[oldtech]

Yes, I was looking at purely the TA side ... I'm currently trying to find some more funds to pick up a few more myself ... :)

[Beagle]

I'm fully expecting them to hit their $50m target 1 year early in 2019, (which represents EPS of 41.3 cps) so this time next year I would expect them to be trading on a forward PE of about 18 times that. My 1 year price target is thus $7.43. Also can't rule out further bolt on acquisitions or a takeover. I used to be a client of Forsyth Barr, (note the past tense).

[iceman]

I read somewhere some days ago that tourism grew 7% in 2017 worldwide, the fastest pace ever recorded. The NZ Tourism Forum is forecasting visitor numbers to NZ to grow from 3.5 million in 2016 to 4.9 million in 2023. Total tourism spend in NZ forecast to increase from $10 billion to $15.3 billion for the same period. THL is a core part of my portfolio and looking at numbers like this as well as THL's own forecasted numbers, I feel we are well positioned with this company to take advantage of this phenomenal growth in the industry.

[winner69]

thl shareholder returns over the last 2 years have outperformed PPH returns

One safe as and other risky as

[winner69]

I'm fully expecting them to hit their $50m target 1 year early in 2019, (which represents EPS of 41.3 cps) so this time next year I would expect them to be trading on a forward PE of about 18 times that. My 1 year price target is thus $7.43. Also can't rule out further bolt on acquisitions or a takeover. I used to be a client of Forsyth Barr, (note the past tense).

So $30m profit in F17 and $40m in F18 and then $50m in F19

Makes perfect sense to me

And Suzanne might need to adjust he F20 to $60m eh

Good eh

[Beagle]

Yes agree Winner, good solid growth prospects going forward and risk to 2020 forecast is to the upside I would think.
I like how Rob Campbell has really turned this around over the years always looking for optimal fleet efficiencies.

[percy]

Please no.
There are enough tourist drivers struggling with NZ road conditions.
Put them in a LEFT HAND drive vehicle and there will be madness.

[macduffy]

I like how Rob Campbell has really turned this around over the years always looking for optimal fleet efficiencies.

A nice job of directing day to day operations on the part of the CEO, too!

[forest]

Hi Beagle, in the past and likely at present THL would have a new camper van and after one high season ship it from NZ to GB or maybe from GB to NZ, I cant remember. So 2 high seasons following up on each other to utilise their fleet more efficiently. Only with newish vehicles as I recall.

[Beagle]

Thanks forest, works with both markets RHD.

[iceman]

thl shareholder returns over the last 2 years have outperformed PPH returns

One safe as and other risky as

Not sure winner that I'd agree PPH is totally "safe" but its good to know I've mitigated the risk by investing big (for me) in both THL and PPH :-)

[Justin]

Up to $5.80 closing today

[Elles]

Not sure winner that I'd agree PPH is totally "safe" but its good to know I've mitigated the risk by investing big (for me) in both THL and PPH :-)

I think PPH is the risky one...?

[iceman]

I think PPH is the risky one...?

You can never be sure with winner69 :-)

[Beagle]

I read somewhere some days ago that tourism grew 7% in 2017 worldwide, the fastest pace ever recorded. The NZ Tourism Forum is forecasting visitor numbers to NZ to grow from 3.5 million in 2016 to 4.9 million in 2023. Total tourism spend in NZ forecast to increase from $10 billion to $15.3 billion for the same period. THL is a core part of my portfolio and looking at numbers like this as well as THL's own forecasted numbers, I feel we are well positioned with this company to take advantage of this phenomenal growth in the industry.

Got thinking about this overnight in terms of valuation theory.
Go back to Benjamin Graham's famous valuation of V= e x (8.5 + 2g) where a PE of 8.5 represents a no growth company and g = the estimated sustainable growth rate over a 7-10 year period.

The main weakness of Ben Graham's valuation methodology in my opinion is that there are very few companies where growth can be reliably estimated that far out with the odd exception with companies with a very long track record of sustainable growth with RYM being one notable example.

In this case however even if we ignore the current year's tourism growth as something of an aberration caused by low fuel prices long term IATA are forecasting airline traffic growth of 5-6% per annum for the foreseeable future.

THL are extremely well placed as a major global player to capture this tourism growth and possibly capture more of it from a possible change towards more "experience" tourism.
If we use a g of 5.5 representing the mid point of IATA's long term sustainable flight growth predictions we can see THL is worth a PE of 8.5 + (2 x 5.5) = 19.5.
Ben Graham's formula however is based on historical EPS not forward earnings.

Add in synergies as they expand their global reach and capex efficiency enhancements and other business optimization strategies and one can see the intrinsic value.

On the other hand almost all DCF models I have seen by brokers analysts simply make sets of assumptions about the next five years and then apply a terminal compound growth rate after that to EPS which is almost always 2% and there's the flaw right there. If IATA is saying tourism long term is growing at 5-6% and DCF models are saying five years out its only 2% you can understand why DCF models are going to give a much lower valuation.

Just all mindless theorizing...probably something the Chinese investors do over their herbal tea...

[Leftfield]

Not sure winner that I'd agree PPH is totally "safe" but its good to know I've mitigated the risk by investing big (for me) in both THL and PPH :-)

80% of my portfolio in 3 shares - ATM, PPH and THL. Feeling well positioned!

[Sideshow Bob]

Please no.
There are enough tourist drivers struggling with NZ road conditions.
Put them in a LEFT HAND drive vehicle and there will be madness.

Indeed drivers struggling enough already. Only 3-4 cars written off per week!! And that is only one company!!

https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/accident-prompts-more-criticism-tourists-driving-skills

Not relishing my drive across the Lindis Pass today, as just starts to rain....

[winner69]

I love corporate welfare esp when it goes to company I punting on .....but that’s being hypocritical because I feel corporate welfare is a generally bad thing

Go Jacinda



Tourism Holdings will receive $402,000 to convert an electric van into a campervan, invest in charging equipment working with holiday parks, and develop dedicated travel itineraries with charging stations at 100km intervals. Beyond this project, they aim to have 20 electric campervans on the road within one year.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/760824e7/government-helps-seed-20-ev-related-projects-with-3-7-mln.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Government%20helps%20seed%2020%20EV-related%20projects%20with%2037%20mln&utm_content=Government%20helps%20seed%2020%20EV-related%20projects%20with%2037%20mln+CID_d9ba48951 a7311cb90d30d9662acdd3f&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle760824e7govern ment-helps-seed-20-ev-related-projects-with-3-7-mlnhtml

[Beagle]

Nice. Watching this whole electric thing closely. Fascinated as to how the infrastructure is going to be rolled out ?
Consider this. How often at your local petrol station do you drive in and have to wait for a bowser to be available, fairly often right ?
Consider that it takes perhaps 3-5 minutes to fill up and pay and consider how many petrol stations there are everywhere.
How many EV charging points are we going to need long term even if we have 50 KW/hr charge points the average user is going to have to spend well over an hour charging their 90 kw/hr vehicle.
How is that going to work when it presently only takes 3-5 minutes ? Once we get widespread adoption of EV's we are going to neewd an absolute massive amount of infrastructure in terms of charging points, far more widespread than petrol stations at present as it takes perhaps 15-20 times as long to fill with power as it does with fuel. Even if most people charge at home I still struggle to see how the infrastructure will be there in sufficient scope to make long range line travel up and down the length of N.Z. a plausible possibility. Returning to short range considerations...Charging a campervan every 100 km's, who is going to want to do that and sit around and wait for an hour or more while it gets charged before they can drive on ? Limited scope application to very rich greenies who can afford the premium pricing for these eco Campervan's ? Hope there's some bright cookies working on this project to solve these apparent problems. Suppose all this electric campervan stuff has to start somewhere...suppose we should be pleased the new Government is at least making a token effort to encourage R&D in this area.

[Antipodean]

Not just charging stations, in addition the widespread adoption of EV's in a country like NZ would quickly outstrip the electrical grid's ability to provide. A rapid increase in electrical generation required at short notice would currently unlikely to be able to be filled with non-renewable sources. An ironic scenario.

[winner69]

guy down the road got an EV

He has an older house but needed to get the place rewired to cope with charging his car

[mondograss]

From a campervan perspective though, as long as you're using camp grounds the basic infrastructure is already there to recharge, so it's actually a good starting point.

[Beagle]

Not just charging stations, in addition the widespread adoption of EV's in a country like NZ would quickly outstrip the electrical grid's ability to provide. A rapid increase in electrical generation required at short notice would currently unlikely to be able to be filled with non-renewable sources. An ironic scenario.

Yes the irony isn't lost on me although there's a fair bit of solar and wind generation capacity that could be brought to bear reasonably quickly if gentailers thought the demand growth merited the capex. How the grid itself would handle the extra demand, that's another good question. A transformer blew up in our quiet suburban street the other day. Blew up like a bomb blast, thought we were living in Bagdad there for a minute lol. Wonder if some of my wealthy neighbors have already bought EV's and already stressing the system ?

[Fuzzy Dunlop]

I know networks are carefully watching demand trends in wealthy neighborhoods (where early adopters are concentrated) as a litmus test for the network. I've also heard that some distribution networks run smaller transformers to failure, which on the (presumably very) odd occasion involves an explosion! Apologies for the digression.

[sammiesmiles]

I don't understand why EV motorhome is that important to THL. I am curious if an EV motorhome can travel a return trip between kaitaia and Cape Reinga, or Te Anau and Milford Sounds.How much do THL need to invest some charge points in Cape Reinga, Milford Sounds?

Can't they think about Hybrid first?

[Jantar]

I don't understand why EV motorhome is that important to THL. I am curious if an EV motorhome can travel a return trip between kaitaia and Cape Reinga, or Te Anau and Milford Sounds.How much do THL need to invest some charge points in Cape Reinga, Milford Sounds?

Can't they think about Hybrid first? 120 kms each way from Te Anau to Milford, and there would not be the electrical capacity for more than a single charging station at Milford. The hydro generator there is only 500 kW and it is already almost fully utilised. It would be possible to build diesel generators for a charging station, but imagine the cost of a charge.

Fox Glacier to Haast is 121 km, Cromwell to Omarama is 111 km, although there would be the possibility of a charging station at Tarras.

Overall, an EV needs at least 120 km at highway speed and in mountainous terrain to be suitable

[hardt]

I don't understand why EV motorhome is that important to THL. I am curious if an EV motorhome can travel a return trip between kaitaia and Cape Reinga, or Te Anau and Milford Sounds.How much do THL need to invest some charge points in Cape Reinga, Milford Sounds?Can't they think about Hybrid first?

Either you want to associate your brand with environmentally conscious decisions ( even if it is a miniscule move )

Or you can jump on the bandwagon late once all the lustre of EV has eroded.

The sooner we all jump on the EV train the sooner it becomes viable.

[emveha]

Nice. Watching this whole electric thing closely. Fascinated as to how the infrastructure is going to be rolled out ?
Consider this. How often at your local petrol station do you drive in and have to wait for a bowser to be available, fairly often right ?
Consider that it takes perhaps 3-5 minutes to fill up and pay and consider how many petrol stations there are everywhere.
How many EV charging points are we going to need long term even if we have 50 KW/hr charge points the average user is going to have to spend well over an hour charging their 90 kw/hr vehicle.
How is that going to work when it presently only takes 3-5 minutes ?

Very good observation. Note however that a charging station costs a fraction of a petrol station in operation costs (no pump to maintain, no tank to refill, can be entirely automated). What this means is that the current model of the little petrol station as a local business is going to disappear. Eventually you'll be able to charge your car in any street or parking lot. No need to wait at all!

[Filthy]

assuming you can hire a ‘normal’ EV car from hertz or avis, from say 2025 onwards and get around the country for next to nothing, the only way to keep competitive advantage is for motor homes (THL) to do the same, or it wouldn’t stack up as a holiday to run a petrol or diesel motorhome when you could stay at airbnbs/motels using your EV car instead?

a very necessary and proactive move by THL

hopefully reliability is not compromised though - needs to be absolutely fail safe for a ‘trouble-free’ holiday!

charge it up at the odd campsite, maybe slap a few solar panels on the large roof to keep you moving ….and you’re good to go?


filthy

[Scrunch]

Very good observation. Note however that a charging station costs a fraction of a petrol station in operation costs (no pump to maintain, no tank to refill, can be entirely automated). What this means is that the current model of the little petrol station as a local business is going to disappear. Eventually you'll be able to charge your car in any street or parking lot. No need to wait at all!

As the EV market grows we may see a completely new business of EV charging points with no connection to petrol stations. The big issue will be space if you have a lot of vehicles charging at the same time.

[Jantar]

120 kms each way from Te Anau to Milford, and there would not be the electrical capacity for more than a single charging station at Milford. The hydro generator there is only 500 kW and it is already almost fully utilised. It would be possible to build diesel generators for a charging station, but imagine the cost of a charge......
The comment I made about Milford got me thinking about other rural areas around New Zealand. In many cases the lines infrastructure to rural towns is not sufficient to allow for more than only 1 or 2 charging points. Consider the feeder line running down the West Coast of the South Island from Hokitika to Haast. It is 33kV 3 phase, and from memory has a 40A rating. This allows it to supply 1.5 MW and at times is already close to being full.

But let's imagine that it is only at half capacity and that there are 750 kW of power available for charging stations. At 50 kW per charging station that would allow 15 vehicles to charged at any single time all the way from Haast to Hokitika, a distance of close to 300 km, and most vehicles will need to charge up at least twice along the way, taking around 30 - 40 minutes each time.

Compare that to petrol and diesel The stations at Haast, Fox, Franz, Whataroa, Harihari, and Ross can between them fill up 30 vehicles at a time taking 3 - 4 minutes each, and on avearge vehicles will fill up once along the way.

This means that even at maximum capacity the West coast highway could only handle around 5% of the number of EV vehicles compared to the current number of vehicles using that road.

EVs may be the way of the future, but the infrastructure to handle them will require a bit more planning than simply installing charging stations along the routes.

[winner69]

The comment I made about Milford got me thinking about other rural areas around New Zealand. In many cases the lines infrastructure to rural towns is not sufficient to allow for more than only 1 or 2 charging points. Consider the feeder line running down the West Coast of the South Island from Hokitika to Haast. It is 33kV 3 phase, and from memory has a 40A rating. This allows it to supply 1.5 MW and at times is already close to being full.

But let's imagine that it is only at half capacity and that there are 750 kW of power available for charging stations. At 50 kW per charging station that would allow 15 vehicles to charged at any single time all the way from Haast to Hokitika, a distance of close to 300 km, and most vehicles will need to charge up at least twice along the way, taking around 30 - 40 minutes each time.

Compare that to petrol and diesel The stations at Haast, Fox, Franz, Whataroa, Harihari, and Ross can between them fill up 30 vehicles at a time taking 3 - 4 minutes each, and on avearge vehicles will fill up once along the way.

This means that even at maximum capacity the West coast highway could only handle around 5% of the number of EV vehicles compared to the current number of vehicles using that road.

EVs may be the way of the future, but the infrastructure to handle them will require a bit more planning than simply installing charging stations along the routes.


According to the papers recently the people of Haast etc would just love to get cell phone coverage

[Beagle]

Great post Jantar, thanks for the insights. I suppose this EV thing for THL, (they are talking about dedicated routes for these new EV's), is a start in much the same way as AIR buying electric cars for management. With just 20 coming my guess is there's a very small market for very rich greenie tourists who may pay the significant premium required to hire these compared to a normal camper such that THL get a reasonable return on capital. Eco tourism campers...suppose someone has to be first and dip their toe in the water.

[Onion]

But let's imagine that it is only at half capacity and that there are 750 kW of power available for charging stations.

Is that really the full load available to the West Coast?

If 300 people switched on a heater (good ol' 3 bar 2400W/2.4kW) then the spare 750kW capacity would be maxxed already.

Or have I misunderstood W, MW and kW?

[Jantar]

You have indeed understood the situation. I believe the lines are often maxed out in winter and that is the reason for almost daily ripple control.

[macduffy]

This won't be any competition for THL!

(Watch the YouTube video at the bottom of the page)

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-19/gidget-retro-teardrop-camper-owes-millions-staff-and-customers/9339692?section=business

[oldtech]

$5.68 currently, I'm guessing (hoping?) this is merely returning to the 50-day MA and normal service will be resumed shortly ...

[Beagle]

SP has more than tripled since $1.80 three years ago and is still trading above mid December 2017 values. Starting to wonder if this with its fairly high PE is a little vulnerable to a possible PE contraction ? Good company with sound long term growth prospects.
If the market turns bearish...people don't have to have expensive overseas campervan holidays do they so not only the PE that could be a little vulnerable but the E could be as well. At this point I have a preference for companies that focus on people's needs not what's on their bucket list. Hope I'm wrong and the market does okay.

[Yoda]

I agree and think it will dip or stay flat, below the 30 MA for the next 6 months like last year.;)

[Justin]

Will the half year result on next week lift the SP？

[JeremyALD]

Will the half year result on next week lift the SP？

Depends on the results. Market has priced in a very good result and forward guidance

[iceman]

SP has more than tripled since $1.80 three years ago and is still trading above mid December 2017 values. Starting to wonder if this with its fairly high PE is a little vulnerable to a possible PE contraction ? Good company with sound long term growth prospects.
If the market turns bearish...people don't have to have expensive overseas campervan holidays do they so not only the PE that could be a little vulnerable but the E could be as well. At this point I have a preference for companies that focus on people's needs not what's on their bucket list. Hope I'm wrong and the market does okay.

Interesting Beagle. Do you think a bearish sharemarket will effect travel plans of many travelers intending to book caravans ? It may be possible, but I wouldn't think so. I'd argue that the rosy economic forecasts around the World and good growth in wages in USA and Europe will have more influence, a positive one. Agree with you that we are very likely to see lowering of PE's for many stocks in coming months. Hopefully THL and some others will report good earnings to support current SP and dividends.

[BlackPeter]

Interesting Beagle. Do you think a bearish sharemarket will effect travel plans of many travelers intending to book caravans ? It may be possible, but I wouldn't think so. I'd argue that the rosy economic forecasts around the World and good growth in wages in USA and Europe will have more influence, a positive one. Agree with you that we are very likely to see lowering of PE's for many stocks in coming months. Hopefully THL and some others will report good earnings to support current SP and dividends.

Share market is typically a precursor to the economic development. Share prices drop because the market thinks that the current growth is likely to strangle itself (with higher interest rates, wage increases, skill shortages). Lots of "positive" feedback loops around which can quickly turn into negative growth:

increased interest rates and higher wage bills -> company earnings drop -> reduced consumer confidence;

increased interest rates - higher mortgage bills -> less money for discretionary spending;

Share prices drop -> individual net worth dropping -> reduce discretionary spending (like this expensive NZ or US trip);

Reduced discretionary spending -> Company earnings drop -> unemployment increasing;

I am sure we all can add more of these "positive" feedback loops.

Sure - we don't know, whether this current (US markets) correction turns into a crash or a bear, but assuming THL just gets unbattered through this storm might be a risky strategy.

Keep safe out there ...

[Beagle]

Interesting Beagle. Do you think a bearish sharemarket will effect travel plans of many travelers intending to book caravans ? It may be possible, but I wouldn't think so. I'd argue that the rosy economic forecasts around the World and good growth in wages in USA and Europe will have more influence, a positive one. Agree with you that we are very likely to see lowering of PE's for many stocks in coming months. Hopefully THL and some others will report good earnings to support current SP and dividends.

Five trillion has got wiped off the value of world share markets at the lows of the recent correction. Its not cheap to travel here or to the U.S. and good campervans at circa $350-400 a day aren't cheap either. If the market rout continues logic suggests some people would pull their horns in and have a cheaper holiday instead. I like the company and its had a fantastic run but is trading well above the long term steadily rising trend line. It looks vulnerable to a pullback to me.

[JeremyALD]

I don't agree with the logic of the above. The US has had a massive run and a 10% pullback has just put the share market to where it was three months ago. There are some other stocks on much higher PEs than THL with lower growth.

Further to this NZ is only 5% off its highs and the OCR is predicted to stay flat this year. A slightly dropping share market is not going to make any difference to people's travels plans (maybe a few but not enough to make a significant difference). The world economy is in one of its strongest growth phases ever. Tourism will continue to do well because the younger generation are more connected and care about experiences than the previous generation.

THL remains well positioned and are going to get a big tax bonus from their US businesses. Now in saying this I didn't have THL on my year end picks because growth is factored in and I think the current price is fair, however if they continue to grow at reach their target of 50m NPAT which I'm sure they will I wouldn't be surprised to see steady growth in the SP over the next couple of years.

[cymonger]

Back in 1997 or so, I was a bartender in Chicago. I has saved my first $10,000 and wanted to do something for my "future self." A lot of big traders came in to the bar I worked at and I asked for some advice. I told one of these guys I was considering buying Walgreens stock. He said, "Do you want to be a wealthy man? If so, take that 10,000, buy that stock, and request those certificates. Then put them in a drawer and don't even THINK about opening it for another 20 years. For years I wanted to get those things out and sell them. The stock would go up, it would go down, and I worried I would lose all my money.

But in the end I waited those 20 years and now that 10,000 has secured my future for a long time. When you are almost positive a company will grow in the foreseeable future, they have produced great results in the past, and you believe in the validity of your research, this is how you build wealth. I firmly believe THL is one of these kinds of companies. So many people want to come to New Zealand, and it's not remotely expensive relative to what it used to be even 20 years ago. This is a "drawer" stock as far as I'm concerned. Sure the craziness in the US market, the fact it shot up so quickly in the last few months, and a high PE may have a slight affect on the stock in the short run, but who cares? Put it in the drawer and look up in 2022 when it's at 10+ if you must. That's my play here.

[Cricketfan]

When you are almost positive a company will grow in the foreseeable future, they have produced great results in the past, and you believe in the validity of your research, this is how you build wealth. I firmly believe THL is one of these kinds of companies. So many people want to come to New Zealand, and it's not remotely expensive relative to what it used to be even 20 years ago. This is a "drawer" stock as far as I'm concerned. Sure the craziness in the US market, the fact it shot up so quickly in the last few months, and a high PE may have a slight affect on the stock in the short run, but who cares? Put it in the drawer and look up in 2022 when it's at 10+ if you must. That's my play here.

Yeah I think that's what it means to be a long term investor, which is the strategy I'm trying to adopt. I see that some people here claim to be in a company for the long term, but at the first hint of some short/medium term volatility, they're out and buy something else for the 'long term'. (Not saying that's a bad strategy, just not what it means to be in something for the long term)

[BlackPeter]

I don't agree with the logic of the above. The US has had a massive run and a 10% pullback has just put the share market to where it was three months ago. There are some other stocks on much higher PEs than THL with lower growth.

Further to this NZ is only 5% off its highs and the OCR is predicted to stay flat this year. A slightly dropping share market is not going to make any difference to people's travels plans (maybe a few but not enough to make a significant difference). The world economy is in one of its strongest growth phases ever. Tourism will continue to do well because the younger generation are more connected and care about experiences than the previous generation.

THL remains well positioned and are going to get a big tax bonus from their US businesses. Now in saying this I didn't have THL on my year end picks because growth is factored in and I think the current price is fair, however if they continue to grow at reach their target of 50m NPAT which I'm sure they will I wouldn't be surprised to see steady growth in the SP over the next couple of years.

... and you are absolutely entitled to your opinion as well as beagle is entitled to his and I to mine ;);

I guess they say what goes up must come down - but nobody can predict in advance when the trend changes - it is all just about personal views, opinions and likelihoods. If we all would agree on the future, there would not be a workable stock market.

Just be careful to rely on official (or any other) "predictions". While there are at any point in time plenty of analysts happy to predict 10 out of the last 3 downturns ... how often did you see a reserve bank accurately predicting the next downturn in their OCR / growth forecasts?

Problem is - the economy is a type 2 chaotic system. It is not just unpredictable, but any attempt to predict whats happening will impact on the systems behavior rendering this very prediction useless.

[cymonger]

Yeah I think that's what it means to be a long term investor, which is the strategy I'm trying to adopt. I see that some people here claim to be in a company for the long term, but at the first hint of some short/medium term volatility, they're out and buy something else for the 'long term'. (Not saying that's a bad strategy, just not what it means to be in something for the long term)


Amen to all that man. From my own failed experience, trying to time the market is simply a way of subtracting brokerage fees from my portfolio. The markets are such a fascinating mirror of people's fear and desire. Historically markets always go up in the log run. We have years of data to back that up, and yet people continue to think short term rather than long. As I said on another thread, "If you're right about the "why" of a stock it's not important to worry about the "when."

Best of luck to you cricketfan. Cheers to your wealthy future self!

[sb9]

Amen to all that man. From my own failed experience, trying to time the market is simply a way of subtracting brokerage fees from my portfolio. The markets are such a fascinating mirror of people's fear and desire. Historically markets always go up in the log run. We have years of data to back that up, and yet people continue to think short term rather than long. As I said on another thread, "If you're right about the "why" of a stock it's not important to worry about the "when."

Best of luck to you cricketfan. Cheers to your wealthy future self!

Well said...


Yeah I think that's what it means to be a long term investor, which is the strategy I'm trying to adopt. I see that some people here claim to be in a company for the long term, but at the first hint of some short/medium term volatility, they're out and buy something else for the 'long term'. (Not saying that's a bad strategy, just not what it means to be in something for the long term)

Very aptly put...

[Beagle]

No argument its a good company with sound long term growth prospects. I wouldn't for one second try and make any case otherwise.
The point of contention as far as I am concerned is whether this is already fully built into the SP ?
The tripling in SP in the last 3 years is well ahead of earnings growth and has been predicated upon a quite considerable expansion in the PE multiple. The 50 cent jump from $5.50 to $6.00 just before Christmas was based on the tax rate change in the U.S.
The SP is fine if the growth continues at pace but this is now a more heavily geared business than it was so the risk profile has changed and any prudent investor needs to recognize that.

THL's SP performance reminds me very much of the time when RYM's SP tripled in three years leading up to 2014 to ~ $8.50 when I called it as overdone and although nobody would argue against RYM also being a fine company the fact is until very recently the SP did ostensibly nothing for the following three years simply because it got to far ahead of itself in 2014.

None of this will be any concern to young ones planning to hold this for the next decade but anyone approaching retirement can be forgiven for asking themselves is there better value and growth at a cheaper price SUM where else in a needs based business ? I made the correct call on RYM nearly 4 years ago and its SP has materially underperformed the market since then despite being a great company with solid growth and an excellent outlook.

I'm going out on a limb here and making the call that there's growth companies at a cheaper price elsewhere. I could be wrong but am happy to back my own judgment and have the stretched PE of RYM example to support my thesis. Good luck to holders and as mentioned if you're in for the very long haul I think you should do well, just keep that seat belt fastened :) All that said I'm overdue to get something badly wrong, maybe its this one...

[DarkHorse]

You're right about "timing the market" as a whole cymonger, but I think beagle makes an important point on considering how much growth the market has priced in to individual stocks - as compared to comparable businesses - at any one time.

[Benny1]

Back in 1997 or so, I was a bartender in Chicago. I has saved my first $10,000 and wanted to do something for my "future self." A lot of big traders came in to the bar I worked at and I asked for some advice. I told one of these guys I was considering buying Walgreens stock. He said, "Do you want to be a wealthy man? If so, take that 10,000, buy that stock, and request those certificates. Then put them in a drawer and don't even THINK about opening it for another 20 years. For years I wanted to get those things out and sell them. The stock would go up, it would go down, and I worried I would lose all my money.

But in the end I waited those 20 years and now that 10,000 has secured my future for a long time. When you are almost positive a company will grow in the foreseeable future, they have produced great results in the past, and you believe in the validity of your research, this is how you build wealth. I firmly believe THL is one of these kinds of companies. So many people want to come to New Zealand, and it's not remotely expensive relative to what it used to be even 20 years ago. This is a "drawer" stock as far as I'm concerned. Sure the craziness in the US market, the fact it shot up so quickly in the last few months, and a high PE may have a slight affect on the stock in the short run, but who cares? Put it in the drawer and look up in 2022 when it's at 10+ if you must. That's my play here.

Yep exactly my thoughts on this one.
The only thing I will add is " as long as the present CEO and Chairman stick around". I believe this company is on excellent hands at the present time.
This is definitely one for my bottom drawer...I do open it every now and then...but it's only to allow a few more shares in !:t_up:

[hardt]

No argument its a good company with sound long term growth prospects. I wouldn't for one second try and make any case otherwise.
The point of contention as far as I am concerned is whether this is already fully built into the SP ?
The tripling in SP in the last 3 years is well ahead of earnings growth and has been predicated upon a quite considerable expansion in the PE multiple. The 50 cent jump from $5.50 to $6.00 just before Christmas was based on the tax rate change in the U.S.
The SP is fine if the growth continues at pace but this is now a more heavily geared business than it was so the risk profile has changed and any prudent investor needs to recognize that.

THL's SP performance reminds me very much of the time when RYM's SP tripled in three years leading up to 2014 to ~ $8.50 when I called it as overdone and although nobody would argue against RYM also being a fine company the fact is until very recently the SP did ostensibly nothing for the following three years simply because it got to far ahead of itself in 2014.

None of this will be any concern to young ones planning to hold this for the next decade but anyone approaching retirement can be forgiven for asking themselves is there better value and growth at a cheaper price SUM where else in a needs based business ? I made the correct call on RYM nearly 4 years ago and its SP has materially underperformed the market since then despite being a great company with solid growth and an excellent outlook.

I'm going out on a limb here and making the call that there's growth companies at a cheaper price elsewhere. I could be wrong but am happy to back my own judgment and have the stretched PE of RYM example to support my thesis. Good luck to holders and as mentioned if you're in for the very long haul I think you should do well, just keep that seat belt fastened :) All that said I'm overdue to get something badly wrong, maybe its this one...

Leading up to 50M NPAT by FY2020 = 18.56% CAGR trading at 22PER

Pay-out ratio of 80-90%

THL 3YR PEG RATIO = 1.185
THL 3YR ACCUMULATED DIVIDENDS AT 80% = ~$0.85 per share
THL EV = $850M
THL PRICE = $670M

I don't think it's all that pricey... then again, I am a bubble boy so wadda I know.

It might not be a double bagger from here in the next 3 years, but it certainly does not look to have moved past it's fundamentals.

In respect to RYM, it was trading at almost triple the sectors mean PER at that time...
RYM was trading at 40x earnings at the time while providing ~15-20% growth.

2015 RYM PEG RATIO = 1.95

I don't see them as the same fish, hope I am right about that.

[winner69]

Leading up to 50M NPAT by FY2020 = 18.56% CAGR trading at 22PER

Pay-out ratio of 80-90%

THL 3YR PEG RATIO = 1.185
THL 3YR ACCUMULATED DIVIDENDS AT 80% = ~$0.85 per share
THL EV = $850M
THL PRICE = $670M
THL EQUITY = $200M

I don't think it's all that pricey... then again, I am a bubble boy so wadda I know.

It might not be a double bagger from here in the next 3 years, but it certainly does not look to have moved past it's fundamentals.

In respect to RYM, it was trading at almost triple the sectors mean PER at that time...
RYM was trading at 40x earnings at the time while providing ~15-20% growth.

2015 RYM PEG RATIO = 1.95

I don't see them as the same fish, hope I am right about that.

Added Equity to your list .... current P/B of 3.3 ....hmmm

[hardt]

Added Equity to your list .... current P/B of 3.3 ....hmmm

"We are aware of those views and understand the theory behind them. thl is an asset intensive business and the motorhomes are a replicable asset. There are two key elements to that which I would consider aren’t necessarily being accounted for appropriately. First is our competitive advantages – primarily scale, experience and market penetration. We do believe our channels to market, our brands, their heritage and the technology that we have developed enable us to create and sustain demand that provides us with a competitive advantage. Along with scale on an international basis, we have the opportunity to sustain our customer base. Secondly is the barriers
to entry. The business model is build/rent and sell. Each aspect of the model requires a different type of infrastructure and licences. The asset intensity of the industry also creates its own barrier. Throughout the global financial crisis, we saw a sustained tightening in the credit requirements for our industry internationally. Today there are strong equity requirements and covenant packages that ensure a disciplined approach to capital deployment and returns is critical. These are qualities that thl has had for many years and any new competitors need to abide by. Regardless, time will tell and we will continue to build our competitive advantages."

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/ - Global average PBV 3.6X

Apollo Tourism trading at PBV 3.2x

Tourism Holdings trading at PBV 3.3x

Debt is not the devil

[Beagle]

Yep exactly my thoughts on this one.
The only thing I will add is " as long as the present CEO and Chairman stick around". I believe this company is on excellent hands at the present time.
This is definitely one for my bottom drawer...I do open it every now and then...but it's only to allow a few more shares in !:t_up:

Rob Campbell was looking old and quite portly at the SUM annual meeting in April 2017. I hope for shareholders sake in SUM, THL and the other directorships he holds he's taking steps to manage his weight / health better. He's a legend, no question about that.

Hardt - As I recall it, (my memory may not be correct), RYM got into a position where the forward PE was early 30's. They had a more than 15 year track record of growing underlying earnings in the mid-late teens, (% per annum) to support that PE) but history shows that wasn't enough and the shares went sideways for three years.

People seem to have forgotten that there's some element of cyclicality to tourism and forgotten the early days (which weren't that long ago) when THL traded on vastly more reasonable multiples. A tripling in SP in three years has been a fantastic run and I for one am happy to take my profit.

On the other hand SUM have been growing underlying earnings faster than THL and their SP has gone nowhere in the last 18 months. THL a great company but I think one can enjoy growth, (and Rob Campbell's legendary expertise for as long as he continues working) SUM where else at a substantially more reasonable PE multiple in a sector with prevailing tailwinds for the next 20-25 years. If we're in the early stages of PE reversion towards historical norms those with the higher PE are more vulnerable in my opinion.

I simply don't feel the need to have such a diversified portfolio going forward. I will target realistic PE's, very strong growth and high dividend yield payers as my way to weather a market that may be reverting to overall PE contraction with higher interest rates.

[iceman]

Rob Campbell was looking old and quite portly at the SUM annual meeting in April 2017. I hope for shareholders sake in SUM THL and the other directorships he holds he's taking steps to manage his weight / health better. He's a legend, no question about that.

Hardt - Fair enough and all the best with it.

And he's taken on Sky City since then hasn't he ? I worry he has taken on too much. He is a great Chairman for both THL and SUM

[Beagle]

And he's taken on Sky City since then hasn't he ? I worry he has taken on too much. He is a great Chairman for both THL and SUM

Yes you know he has mate and he's probably very pleased that SKC are getting the bargain of the century with their new international convention entre for a contracted price of less than half the cost to build it ! He has plenty on his plate, (in more ways than one if you know what I mean) for someone his age, no question about that !

[winner69]

No argument its a good company with sound long term growth prospects. I wouldn't for one second try and make any case otherwise.
The point of contention as far as I am concerned is whether this is already fully built into the SP ?
The tripling in SP in the last 3 years is well ahead of earnings growth and has been predicated upon a quite considerable expansion in the PE multiple. The 50 cent jump from $5.50 to $6.00 just before Christmas was based on the tax rate change in the U.S.
The SP is fine if the growth continues at pace but this is now a more heavily geared business than it was so the risk profile has changed and any prudent investor needs to recognize that.

THL's SP performance reminds me very much of the time when RYM's SP tripled in three years leading up to 2014 to ~ $8.50 when I called it as overdone and although nobody would argue against RYM also being a fine company the fact is until very recently the SP did ostensibly nothing for the following three years simply because it got to far ahead of itself in 2014.

None of this will be any concern to young ones planning to hold this for the next decade but anyone approaching retirement can be forgiven for asking themselves is there better value and growth at a cheaper price SUM where else in a needs based business ? I made the correct call on RYM nearly 4 years ago and its SP has materially underperformed the market since then despite being a great company with solid growth and an excellent outlook.

I'm going out on a limb here and making the call that there's growth companies at a cheaper price elsewhere. I could be wrong but am happy to back my own judgment and have the stretched PE of RYM example to support my thesis. Good luck to holders and as mentioned if you're in for the very long haul I think you should do well, just keep that seat belt fastened :) All that said I'm overdue to get something badly wrong, maybe its this one...

I think what beagle is saying is that the thl share price could go nowhere for a year or so as it has got ahead of itself. It could do what the RYM share price did a while ago - go nowhere for a few years.

Here is chart of thl share price over the years overlayed with its EPS and a few notes re PE ratios. I only bothered with the EPS line from the time it pulled itself out of the depths of despair and lwas osing money (not that long ago was it ...never happen again will it?)

Chart no doubt tells a story ...what that story is what you want it to say but I reckon Beagle says the share price has got ahead of itself and will be about the same as it is now at the beginning of 2020...even though earnings will grow to $38m in F18 and $47m in F19 (that's what I used)

[Balance]

I think what beagle is saying is that the thl share price could go nowhere for a year or so as it has got ahead of itself. It could do what the RYM share price did a while ago - go nowhere for a few years.

Here is chart of thl share price over the years overlayed with its EPS and a few notes re PE ratios. I only bothered with the EPS line from the time it pulled itself out of the depths of despair and lwas osing money (not that long ago was it ...never happen again will it?)

Chart no doubt tells a story ...what that story is what you want it to say but I reckon Beagle says the share price has got ahead of itself and will be about the same as it is now at the beginning of 2020...even though earnings will grow to $38m in F18 and $47m in F19 (that's what I used)

Your chart is truly one of those pictures which paints ten thousand words!

[Leftfield]

Interesting news today to expand THL's digital marketing via a new JV called TH2 at a cost of $NZ 3 mill.

"THL Chairman, Mr Rob Campbell, said, “at the Annual Meetings in 2016 and 2017 we outlined our need to grow a global platform that would assist us in broadening our reach within the wider RV ecosystem. We have progressed down this path well; however, we now have a partner and set of assets that will turn our “start” into a compelling, winning global business.”
TH2 will be focused on significantly enhancing the enjoyment and safety of RV enthusiasts by digitally connecting this fast growing international marketplace. This innovative and comprehensive platform will improve every aspect of RV ownership, with capabilities that include trip planning and booking, remote systems monitoring, roadside assistance, and peer-to-peer RV and campsite rental. The system will also streamline an owner’s record keeping and enable dealers and manufacturers to provide such support as triggered service notifications, online vehicle manuals and more"

[percy]

Interesting news today to expand THL's digital marketing via a new JV called TH2 at a cost of $NZ 3 mill.

"THL Chairman, Mr Rob Campbell, said, “at the Annual Meetings in 2016 and 2017 we outlined our need to grow a global platform that would assist us in broadening our reach within the wider RV ecosystem. We have progressed down this path well; however, we now have a partner and set of assets that will turn our “start” into a compelling, winning global business.”
TH2 will be focused on significantly enhancing the enjoyment and safety of RV enthusiasts by digitally connecting this fast growing international marketplace. This innovative and comprehensive platform will improve every aspect of RV ownership, with capabilities that include trip planning and booking, remote systems monitoring, roadside assistance, and peer-to-peer RV and campsite rental. The system will also streamline an owner’s record keeping and enable dealers and manufacturers to provide such support as triggered service notifications, online vehicle manuals and more"

I see the joint venture as very positive.

[Oliver Mander]

Interesting news today to expand THL's digital marketing via a new JV called TH2 at a cost of $NZ 3 mill.

"THL Chairman, Mr Rob Campbell, said, “at the Annual Meetings in 2016 and 2017 we outlined our need to grow a global platform that would assist us in broadening our reach within the wider RV ecosystem. We have progressed down this path well; however, we now have a partner and set of assets that will turn our “start” into a compelling, winning global business.”
TH2 will be focused on significantly enhancing the enjoyment and safety of RV enthusiasts by digitally connecting this fast growing international marketplace. This innovative and comprehensive platform will improve every aspect of RV ownership, with capabilities that include trip planning and booking, remote systems monitoring, roadside assistance, and peer-to-peer RV and campsite rental. The system will also streamline an owner’s record keeping and enable dealers and manufacturers to provide such support as triggered service notifications, online vehicle manuals and more"

Sounds like a positive move to me...looks like a way to access growth on 'their' assets (now the JV's) by using $47m of Thor's cash to do it. Also interesting to see if it results in any longer-term tie-up between Thor and THL.

[babymonster]

it's a positive move... you can tell from yesterday's sp move... :)

[cymonger]

Nice little move yesterday on some good news about new innovation and partnerships. I feel confident that THL will arrive at their $50 million figure even faster than they predicted. I hear the term "peak tourism" on here sometimes which I think is just dead wrong. The fact is, people are flocking to New Zealand so fast we can barely keep up with the numbers. Yes there are serious demands on infrastructure given these developments, but moves like this and their "Green" initiatives show me THL is thinking a few moves ahead.


Anecdotally, I've had about a dozen people come from the states to visit me in the last four years. 30 years ago New Zealand wouldn't have been on the radar of anyone but the most experienced and savvy travellers. LOTR changed a lot of things, but since the advent of social media people can now "see" the beauty of their friend's travel pictures and want to create the same experience. The people are coming, and will continue to come. I know a lot of people don't love this idea, but it's a reality. THL to me has a thoughtful approach that tries to balance the explosiveness of this growth with some responsible and environmentally conscious stewardship

[minimoke]

it's a positive move... you can tell from yesterday's sp move... :)
and a nice 3.1% rise on start of day today.

[sb9]

Nice little move yesterday on some good news about new innovation and partnerships. I feel confident that THL will arrive at their $50 million figure even faster than they predicted. I hear the term "peak tourism" on here sometimes which I think is just dead wrong. The fact is, people are flocking to New Zealand so fast we can barely keep up with the numbers. Yes there are serious demands on infrastructure given these developments, but moves like this and their "Green" initiatives show me THL is thinking a few moves ahead.


Anecdotally, I've had about a dozen people come from the states to visit me in the last four years. 30 years ago New Zealand wouldn't have been on the radar of anyone but the most experienced and savvy travellers. LOTR changed a lot of things, but since the advent of social media people can now "see" the beauty of their friend's travel pictures and want to create the same experience. The people are coming, and will continue to come. I know a lot of people don't love this idea, but it's a reality. THL to me has a thoughtful approach that tries to balance the explosiveness of this growth with some responsible and environmentally conscious stewardship

Agree 100%, another strategic move that surely should make them achieve that $50m number faster than they've forecasted.

[sb9]

'thl noted the half-year result for FY18 would be released on Thursday 22 February, where an update will be provided on the forecast for the year and a more refined expectation of the positive impacts from the recent US tax reforms."

The above snippet from today's release notes sums it up aptly as to what's going to unfold next week and beyond.

[iceman]

'thl noted the half-year result for FY18 would be released on Thursday 22 February, where an update will be provided on the forecast for the year and a more refined expectation of the positive impacts from the recent US tax reforms."

The above snippet from today's release notes sums it up aptly as to what's going to unfold next week and beyond.

Yes I noted this little snippet and think it is the reason for thee jump in the SP this morning. They can not really be any more direct about the HY being pleasantly surprising. Hopefully we will see a decent lift in the divie this year, as well as the SP of course. Must say this is not a bad morning to have half your portfolio tied up in THL & HLG :-)

[cymonger]

Agree 100%, another strategic move that surely should make them achieve that $50m number faster than they've forecasted.

Cheers to all the longs who have the good sense to withstand some silly little bumps along the way. If you read this thread this week you may have been led to believe it would take two years for the shareprice to get back to its all time high. It took two days. That's why you invest in good companies with good leadership. For days like this where they show the ability to keep improving and redefining their business model.

[sb9]

Yes I noted this little snippet and think it is the reason for thee jump in the SP this morning. They can not really be any more direct about the HY being pleasantly surprising. Hopefully we will see a decent lift in the divie this year, as well as the SP of course. Must say this is not a bad morning to have half your portfolio tied up in THL & HLG :-)

Yes, markets are looking desperately for companies that deliver good news and they lap them up at the first hint of that confirmation. After few scary bits of bad news from a giant like FBU and another not so well known like CBL.

[Scrunch]

Sounds like a positive move to me...looks like a way to access growth on 'their' assets (now the JV's) by using $47m of Thor's cash to do it. Also interesting to see if it results in any longer-term tie-up between Thor and THL.

Agree. Had a look at the tho code on the NYSE. They did $7.7b in sales for a profit of $424m from the manufacture of RVs. Very useful company to be doing JVs with. It's the sort of partner that could help seriously scale the JV.

[golden city]

Glad I kept it all the way. Now I can retired

[Cricketfan]

Cheers to all the longs who have the good sense to withstand some silly little bumps along the way. If you read this thread this week you may have been led to believe it would take two years for the shareprice to get back to its all time high. It took two days. That's why you invest in good companies with good leadership. For days like this where they show the ability to keep improving and redefining their business model.

Yep, glad I stuck to my strategy of doing nothing in this case.

[winner69]

Hope punters not affected by this little snippet

sh. The business is expected to lose money in the first two years of operation as it focuses on growing customer numbers,

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/33ca420c/tourism-holdings-forms-us-94m-jv-with-thor-industries-to-connect-rv-market.html

At least they appear to get a decent gain this year on the profit they will on ‘selling’ the assets into the JV. Should take it over $50m but this jv is incremental to the $50m

[iceman]

Hope punters not affected by this little snippet

sh. The business is expected to lose money in the first two years of operation as it focuses on growing customer numbers,

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/33ca420c/tourism-holdings-forms-us-94m-jv-with-thor-industries-to-connect-rv-market.html

At least they appear to get a decent gain this year on the profit they will on ‘selling’ the assets into the JV. Should take it over $50m but this jv is incremental to the $50m

And don´t forget the Trump tax windfall !!

[winner69]

thl using words and phrases like data / digital connectivity / sharing economy / international marketplaces / global platform / peer to peer / remote systems monitoring the market should be looking at them as a tech company

thl as a tech company growing as fast as it is would be on a pe of at least 40

They are not an old fashioned capital intensive rental campervan company ...they are heaps more han that. Hope the market rerates accordingly

PS - that announcement says that Grant Webster looks like he has borrowed Nick from Warehouse buzz word book...or they went to same management uni.

[iceman]

thl using words and phrases like data / digital connectivity / sharing economy / international marketplaces / global platform / peer to peer / remote systems monitoring the market should be looking at them as a tech company

thl as a tech company growing as fast as it is would be on a pe of at least 40

They are not an old fashioned capital intensive rental campervan company ...they are heaps more han that. Hope the market rerates accordingly

PS - that announcement says that Grant Webster looks like he has borrowed Nick from Warehouse buzz word book...or they went to same management uni.

You are right winner69. THL is certainly investing heavily in technology to take advantage of the huge growth in this popular way of traveling. Looks like they will book a $17m profit from this deal from sale of Cosmos, Mighway and Roadtrippers.
I think its been very smart to partner in a 50/50 partnership with such a giant in RV vehicle manufacturing as Thor Industries is, 10x or so the size of THL. Interesting times

[weasel]

thl using words and phrases like data / digital connectivity / sharing economy / international marketplaces / global platform / peer to peer / remote systems monitoring the market should be looking at them as a tech company


Just one key word missing .... BLOCKCHAIN

(don't they want an immediate 50% increase in market cap?)

[Justin]

Why Thor SP dropped 4.29% on this Friday?

[Leftfield]

Just one key word missing .... BLOCKCHAIN (don't they want an immediate 50% increase in market cap?)

Nice one Weasel

Only a few weeks ago posters such as Winner and Beagle were saying that THL’s growth days were possibly over or that THL “looks vulnerable to a pullback” and THL’s share price “could go nowhere for a year or two.” (refer posts #’s 2347, 2355 and 2369.)

According to NBR last week THL’s SP growth led the NZX index with 6.5% gains, riding on news of a joint venture with USA based Thor industries to drive development of a digital platform for the RV hire market (puns intended), which will no doubt build on THL’s current platforms such as;

https://www.mighway.com
https://roadtrippers.com/new-zealand

In the words of Craigs Investments partner, Greg Easton, “digitisation of some of (THL’s) services was always seen as something of huge potential”

While some posters have noted that this JV is still likely to ‘lose money’ for a couple of years, they perhaps forget the huge potential of such digitisation as we enter the realm of digital vehicles, driverless cars, and GPS guided route planning and tours.

Anyone aware of the huge success of the NZ Motorcaravan Association and its site https://www.nzmca.org.nz will get a glimpse of the digital future available to the RV market.

On Thursday 22 Feb we will get THL’s latest results update. It’s going to be interesting to watch.

[hardt]

Nice one Weasel

Only a few weeks ago posters such as Winner and Beagle were saying that THL’s growth days were possibly over or that THL “looks vulnerable to a pullback” and THL’s share price “could go nowhere for a year or two.” (refer posts #’s 2347, 2355 and 2369.)

According to NBR last week THL’s SP growth led the NZX index with 6.5% gains, riding on news of a joint venture with USA based Thor industries to drive development of a digital platform for the RV hire market (puns intended), which will no doubt build on THL’s current platforms such as;

https://www.mighway.com
https://roadtrippers.com/new-zealand

In the words of Craigs Investments partner, Greg Easton, “digitisation of some of (THL’s) services was always seen as something of huge potential”

While some posters have noted that this JV is still likely to ‘lose money’ for a couple of years, they perhaps forget the huge potential of such digitisation as we enter the realm of digital vehicles, driverless cars, and GPS guided route planning and tours.

Anyone aware of the huge success of the NZ Motorcaravan Association and its site https://www.nzmca.org.nz will get a glimpse of the digital future available to the RV market.

On Thursday 22 Feb we will get THL’s latest results update. It’s going to be interesting to watch.

The future will no doubt serve up driverless electric rv's that you select your route on roadtrippers with and off it goes :)

[winner69]

Leftfield ..I did not say thl share price might not go anywhere for a year or so.

All I did was put up a chart that told a story any one you wanted ....and mentioned that one of those stories could be beagles view that it might not go anywhere.

Chart looks even better and I’m happy with that. My holding is dependent on market sentiment and as long as punters love thl I’ll be there ...but in spite what the likes of hardt say pretty hard to make up a DCF or even a ddm to support an enterprise value closing in on a billion dollars

But as we know these days sentiment rules supreme these days eh

[hardt]

Leftfield ..I did not say thl share price might not go anywhere for a year or so.

All I did was put up a chart that told a story any one you wanted ....and mentioned that one of those stories could be beagles view that it might not go anywhere.

Chart looks even better and I’m happy with that. My holding is dependent on market sentiment and as long as punters love thl I’ll be there ...but in spite what the likes of hardt say pretty hard to make up a DCF or even a ddm to support an enterprise value close to a billion dollars

But as we know these days sentiment rules supreme these days eh

Well given the capital intensity of the industry I agree with you that DCF wont support valuations.


#2063 Valuing growth companies using DCF is easily distorted as many have capex intensive growth schemes in place to drive earnings growth over short-medium term that level out once the maturity curve is being reached.

Valuing this one using earnings growth estimates of 44-52 NZDm in 2020 ( 17-19%CAGR )

This presents a PEG of 0.90 at current SP - rather cheap growth and it comes with a 4.2% net yield that will grow more or less inline with earnings.

Anything under $6 seems like a fair price to pay in my opinion...

DCF is great for mature businesses with single digit organic growth... which THL is not.
Valuing the growth over anything else... what else can you expect in this market? :)

As said before, if THL is overvalued so is the entire industry. ( which might be the case then )

[winner69]

Well given the capital intensity of the industry I agree with you that DCF wont support valuations.



DCF is great for mature businesses with single digit organic growth... which THL is not.
Valuing the growth over anything else... what else can you expect in this market? :)

As said before, if THL is overvalued so is the entire industry. ( which might be the case then )

hardt ... Have you updated your ddm model from a few months ago/

[hardt]

hardt ... Have you updated your ddm model from a few months ago/

I can't even remember having done a DDM on THL...

[Leftfield]

Leftfield ..I did not say thl share price might not go anywhere for a year or so.

All I did was put up a chart that told a story any one you wanted ....and mentioned that one of those stories could be beagles view that it might not go anywhere.

Chart looks even better and I’m happy with that. My holding is dependent on market sentiment and as long as punters love thl I’ll be there ...but in spite what the likes of hardt say pretty hard to make up a DCF or even a ddm to support an enterprise value closing in on a billion dollars

But as we know these days sentiment rules supreme these days eh

Thanks for the clarification Winner, and good to see you have not given up on THL entirely.

Here's another chart to contemplate, it compares the last 5 years SP of THL v HLG (a current market darling.) I suggest THL's 750% better performance over 5 years - is not only about 'sentiment.'

9515

Will THL's performance continue? Who knows, but the odds are pretty good IMHO and we will get further clues this week.

[Baa_Baa]

Valuing the growth over anything else... what else can you expect in this market? :)

As said before, if THL is overvalued so is the entire industry. ( which might be the case then )

The 'growth' stories that are doing so well for so long all seem to be overpriced, which is fine while the bull lasts, but they are also the first to revert, usually strongly, with a change in overall market sentiment. Leftfield's chart is telling somewhat, but maybe not a good comparison showing a cyclical earner that has range-traded in a fairly wide band for many years, versus a true growth story.

Nevertheless, it's all good until it isn't. The trick seems to be quickly identifying when the good is over and quitting the story, banking the profits and / or recycling into defensive earners. Clearly that's not the time right now with THL, but being alert to overall market and sector sentiment seems prudent, along with a hair trigger when it turns to custard.

BAA

[winner69]

Thanks for the clarification Winner, and good to see you have not given up on THL entirely.

Here's another chart to contemplate, it compares the last 5 years SP of THL v HLG (a current market darling.) I suggest THL's 750% better performance over 5 years - is not only about 'sentiment.'

9515

Will THL's performance continue? Who knows, but the odds are pretty good IMHO and we will get further clues this week.

Very nice chart eh leftie ...gives me the warm fuzzies too

What it doesn’t show is profits ....Like thl were a lossmaking dog at the start of that chart and is now making $30m odd from favourable conditions and a lot by acquisitions whereas Hlg haven’t been making that much more although this year is going to a boomer and they’ll probably make more than thl.

Is sentiment is measured by P/E ratios than thl is twice as popular with the punters now whereas hlg isn’t that much more popular ...even though you call it a market darling

Amazing what you can do with charts eh .

At the moment both thl and hlg good stocks to hold ....as long as sentiment remains favourable ...but keep on eye on those charts.

[winner69]

Well given the capital intensity of the industry I agree with you that DCF wont support valuations.



DCF is great for mature businesses with single digit organic growth... which THL is not.
Valuing the growth over anything else... what else can you expect in this market? :)

As said before, if THL is overvalued so is the entire industry. ( which might be the case then )

I think we need to agree to disagree

Thl growth mainly coming from acquisition .... so what’s wrong with doing dcfs on each of the components to get a whole. Each component is essentially a capital intensive mature business in its own right.

[Balance]

I think we need to agree to disagree

Thl growth mainly coming from acquisition .... so what’s wrong with doing dcfs on each of the components to get a whole. Each component is essentially a capital intensive mature business in its own right.

Always good to have a counter-view to test one's conviction and assessment of a stock, W69.

THL under Rob Campbell and the new managers is delivering and that certainly accounts for some of the premium in this outstanding NZ story.

One more big move this year I would say - and if it happens, stock will be at least $8.

Famous last words?

[percy]

Major drivers of tourism are growing middle classes in China and India,world wide wealthy retirees who like to travel,and young adventurers .
THL is in the right sector at the right time to benefit from these drivers.

[winner69]

Major drivers of tourism are growing middle classes in China and India,world wide wealthy retirees who like to travel,and young adventurers .
THL is in the right sector at the right time to benefit from these drivers.


.....and they’ve entered markets at a cyclical trough ....more upside.

[percy]

A great deal more upside.

[winner69]

Always good to have a counter-view to test one's conviction and assessment of a stock, W69.

THL under Rob Campbell and the new managers is delivering and that certainly accounts for some of the premium in this outstanding NZ story.

One more big move this year I would say - and if it happens, stock will be at least $8.

Famous last words?

That $8 sounds good mate

A bit more than 8 and it’s a billion dollar company

Wonder what Denis Pickup thinks of the company he built up so successfully (joke) but almost seduced those silly Aussies to but it at an inflated price. What’s Denis up to these days?

[winner69]

I can't even remember having done a DDM on THL...

Sorry mate - it was another analysis you shared with us some time ago ..conclusion that around $6 was good value (as back then)

Re our discussion re dcfs for capital intensive businesses not being the best approach.

As thl is in the business of buying and selling vehicles (as well as renting them for a year or so) a lot of the ‘capex’ is essentially accounted through the P&L anyway (new vehicles in COS and sales through revenue) ....and a such included in ebitda and eps. So we are both actually allowing for capex in our different approaches.

[hardt]

Sorry mate - it was another analysis you shared with us some time ago ..conclusion that around $6 was good value (as back then)

Re our discussion re dcfs for capital intensive businesses not being the best approach.

As thl is in the business of buying and selling vehicles (as well as renting them for a year or so) a lot of the ‘capex’ is essentially accounted through the P&L anyway (new vehicles in COS and sales through revenue) ....and a such included in ebitda and eps. So we are both actually allowing for capex in our different approaches.

All good, I hope I don't contradict myself too often on here :)

If this value created for EBITDA/EPS by CAPEX is not included in FCF how would a DCF valuation capture this value?

Maybe it comes down to preference for me, but I like to work off EBITDA/EPS in THL valuation.

[LAC]

Great result!!!!

[Benny1]

Great result!!!!

Yep, not bad!!!!
Half year profit increased by 109%, 13c Divi and EPS up 95%
All with reduced debt :)

[Benny1]

Yep, not bad!!!!
Half year profit increased by 109%, 13c Divi and EPS up 95%
All with reduced debt :)

Sorry 102% !!!

[cymonger]

Sorry 102% !!!


Cheers to the good news. I read the US numbers were up 18% this year, but haven't seen the full report. Where are you reading that?

[bull....]

wicked :t_up:

[winner69]

Ebit excluding El Monte up 27% — pretty good

Full year profit could be $59m — AMAZING

Full year profit excluding non-recurring $36m to $40m — bit more stretched than previous but likes of Jeremy will be disappointed that mid point is only $38m

Thl shares should be $7 by now eh

[winner69]

Cheers to the good news. I read the US numbers were up 18% this year, but haven't seen the full report. Where are you reading that?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/314551/274924.pdf

[cymonger]

Year ago there was a song by Billy Joel called "keeping the faith." Cheers to all the people who kept their heads and can see what these results so obviously show. This company is booming right along with tourism growth and in many ways leading the charge. The gloom and doom from a couple of weeks ago seems a little silly now actually.

[JeremyALD]

Ebit excluding El Monte up 27% — pretty good

Full year profit could be $59m — AMAZING

Full year profit excluding non-recurring $36m to $40m — bit more stretched than previous but likes of Jeremy will be disappointed that mid point is only $38m

Thl shares should be $7 by now eh

Haven't had a chance to read yet but on the surface looks like another good result. A little bit surprised with the forcast after such a strong half - I'm picking they'll be closer to 40m than 36m

[hardt]

Expanding margins, growing global reach and a huge increase in sales is something the market will reward...

Who didn't see it coming though.

[Leftfield]

Expanding margins, growing global reach and a huge increase in sales is something the market will reward...

Who didn't see it coming though.

Great news. Glad we held the faith Hardt.

[Beagle]

Haven't had a chance to read yet but on the surface looks like another good result. A little bit surprised with the forcast after such a strong half - I'm picking they'll be closer to 40m than 36m

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/314551/274924.pdf

Interestingly permanent gains from lower U.S. corporate tax rate have been gobbled up by a trading update that in effect lowers operating profit for the full year by between $1-2m, varies due to lower or higher case assumptions, see the box on page 25.
Net profit lower in 2H because of huge seasonal profit impact from U.S. business in their summer.

Previous guidance was permanent tax benefit from U.S. of $3m per annum which saw the shares up 50 cents in December, new permanent tax guidance is $2m per annum, disappointingly mostly ameliorated by lower trading guidance.

Good luck to investors, I can't be invested everywhere. I think this is a good company trading at about fair value.

[minimoke]

My front end loader has finished moving my ATM gains from yesterday. Currently idling to see what it can do with THL (and SML) today.

[babymonster]

great result... esp up 95%.. excellent!!!!!!!!!!

[cymonger]

My front end loader has finished moving my ATM gains from yesterday. Currently idling to see what it can do with THL (and SML) today.

That ATM thing was pretty amazing yesterday. Just goes to show why you stay in the market through the ups and downs. Once in a while a day like that comes along you would be sick about if you missed it trying to time the market.

[Balance]

Stay with the winners.

Amazing to think that THL was less than $1 five years ago!

Anyone who stayed the distance and still holds, is reaping a 25% pa dividend yield - forgetting about the sp for a second!

[Leftfield]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/314551/274924.pdf

..... I think this is a good company trading at about fair value.

Maybe a tab conservative? 1st Half EPS at 18c. If they double that for the full year = 36c ps, thus could be $10 plus by end FY 2018? or am I being too simplistic?

[Beagle]

Maybe a tab conservative? 1st Half EPS at 18c. If they double that for the full year = 36c ps, thus could be $10 plus by end FY 2018? or am I being too simplistic?

Yes, you're ignoring seasonality. Operational guidance is what it is and excluding extraordinary items and has been lowered slightly. The PE as I have commented on recently is very high and the SP has already tripled in the last 3 years mainly on the back of substantial PE expansion. Great stock and its had a great run already.
Happy to have my share of that great gain safely in the tin. That said they do have a history of steady upgrades so to your earlier point, yes they probably are being a little conservative, Rob Campbell is good like that :) All the best with it.

[Oliver Mander]

pretty happy with this. Like you, Beagle, surprised a bit at the conservative outlook - but it could be that they are just being conservative...either way, another great result.

[Leftfield]

Yes, you're ignoring seasonality. Operational guidance is what it is and excluding extraordinary items and has been lowered slightly. The PE as I have commented on recently is very high and the SP has already tripled in the last 3 years mainly on the back of substantial PE expansion. Great stock and its had a great run already.
Happy to have my share of that great gain safely in the tin. That said they do have a history of steady upgrades so to your earlier point, yes they probably are being a little conservative, Rob Campbell is good like that :) All the best with it.

Appreciated - thank you. I'll just have to be patient.

Maybe I'm biased, but I can't help thinking with the growth of their USA market the seasonality risk is being mitigated, while the growth of their digital platforms have yet to show any financial benefits. Time will tell.

[percy]

Stay with the winners.

Amazing to think that THL was less than $1 five years ago!

Anyone who stayed the distance and still holds, is reaping a 25% pa dividend yield - forgetting about the sp for a second!

Funny how the winners always surprise on the upside.

[cymonger]

Appreciated - thank you. I'll just have to be patient.

Maybe I'm biased, but I can't help thinking with the growth of their USA market the seasonality risk is being mitigated, while the growth of their digital platforms have yet to show any financial benefits. Time will tell.


This is totally correct. US growth up 18% this year which is a major driver of these numbers. June, July, and August are huge travel months for (non-retired) Americans. The variance in the weather here is so mild compared to the US that the seasons aren't all that important to these travelers. Not to mention NZ tourism has made a huge push to market the shoulder seasons, which is clearly working. This company has got the ole "underpromise/overdeliver" thing down pretty well when it comes to the reporting of their numbers. I'll take anyone's bet that the next group of numbers will be higher rather than lower.

[babymonster]

the sp is in red... gees.... the market is hard to please...

[minimoke]

I'm a little disappointed with the muted response so far today. Never mind, ATM and SML keeping me happy.

[winner69]

the sp is in red... gees.... the market is hard to please...


Beagle was saying guidance iscessentially a profit downgrade of sorts

Market may think so as well

Hope it doesn’t do a BWX (ASX) Reported huge growth in earnings because of acquisitions and share price went down 30% odd

[winner69]

Never like seeing this as part of the Cash Flow Statement for companies that are pretty highly leveraged

Make of it what you want

[Arbroath]

Never like seeing this as part of the Cash Flow Statement for companies that are pretty highly leveraged

Make of it what you want

I think you know winner that that is only a problem if it happens repeatedly, not when theyve just made an acquisition where a chunk of debt was drawn

[winner69]

I think you know winner that that is only a problem if it happens repeatedly, not when theyve just made an acquisition where a chunk of debt was drawn

Only minor acquisition spend in H1 ....all the big spend was in F17

And over the last two and half years dividends have exceeded free cash flow (excluding acquistions)

[Beagle]

Only minor acquisition spend in H1 ....all the big spend was in F17

And over the last two and half years dividends have exceeded free cash flow (excluding acquistions)

Interesting...bet ya most people didn't know that ! No wonder they encourage the dividend reinvestment plan with a 2% discount. Dividends only partially imputed.

[Filthy]

I'm a little disappointed with the muted response so far today. Never mind, ATM and SML keeping me happy.

good result and happy LT holder, but reckon most of it was already priced in eh mini :)

[minimoke]

good result and happy LT holder, but reckon most of it was already priced in eh mini :)Cant complain.
I'm 24% up on when I bought for Portfolio #2 3 months ago.

[Justin]

why dropped today? Is there any problem with the interim report?

[winner69]

why dropped today? Is there any problem with the interim report?

Bit of a profit downgrade .....or if glass half full a disappointing guidance number

Otherwise all honky dory

[Beagle]

Bit of a profit downgrade .....or if glass half full a disappointing guidance number

Otherwise all honky dory

I think the real problem is the company has a long history of guiding upwards at the half year mark and this time excluding the already priced in recurring U.S. tax benefits for the first time in years they effectively guided downwards on a net operating profit basis. I can certainly understand the markets disappointment with that.

[winner69]

I think the real problem is the company has a long history of guiding upwards at the half year mark and this time excluding the already priced in recurring U.S. tax benefits for the first time in years they effectively guided downwards on a net operating profit basis. I can certainly understand the markets disappointment with that.

Maybe a bit of acquisitive indigestion holding them back

Love that phrase

[JeremyALD]

They are well on their way to 50m NPAT as targeted so I'm not really worried about a slightly more modest year. There's nothing in the report to suggest they are not delivering. As I highlighted beginning of the year the SP got a little bit ahead of itself but I think it's a decent long term hold at present.

[Raz]

Only minor acquisition spend in H1 ....all the big spend was in F17

And over the last two and half years dividends have exceeded free cash flow (excluding acquistions)

The cashflow statement is the most important part of financial statements and its all there to be seen...chief reason i have been selling down..

[JeremyALD]

The cashflow statement is the most important part of financial statements and its all there to be seen...chief reason i have been selling down..

Can you expand on this please?

[winner69]

Can you expand on this please?

Maybe Free Cash Flow of ~$7m might get you thinking (esp relative to its Enterprise Value approaching $1 billion)

Raz probably seen other stuff

[Beagle]

Maybe a bit of acquisitive indigestion holding them back

Love that phrase

AKA biting off more than you can chew. I think they'll do fine in the long run once they bed this new operation in and get it humming along nicely.

[winner69]

Where’s every one gone ...not ‘discussing’ thl for a week or so

All the excitement gone out of this stock ...off chasing atm are we all

Yes, that is a lot more exciting eh .....but please come back here when thl is back down at 550 or less

[sb9]

Where’s every one gone ...not ‘discussing’ thl for a week or so

All the excitement gone out of this stock ...off chasing atm are we all

Yes, that is a lot more exciting eh .....but please come back here when thl is back down at 550 or less

Or when it goes over $6.50, just need those Chinese buyers to keep buying...wonder if they're still accumulating.

[cymonger]

Or when it goes over $6.50, just need those Chinese buyers to keep buying...wonder if they're still accumulating.



They just keep coming! Gonna be another big number year for these guys

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12011085

[Justin]

extremly quite and smooth week， sp around 5.98-6

[iceman]

Where’s every one gone ...not ‘discussing’ thl for a week or so

All the excitement gone out of this stock ...off chasing atm are we all

Yes, that is a lot more exciting eh .....but please come back here when thl is back down at 550 or less

We're all just happily letting the business get on with it and grow in the never ending increase of visitors arriving in NZ and using our assets :-) NPAT of $50-55m and divies of 31-33c by 2020 is well worth waiting for !!

[sb9]

We're all just happily letting the business get on with it and grow in the never ending increase of visitors arriving in NZ and using our assets :-) NPAT of $50-55m and divies of 31-33c by 2020 is well worth waiting for !!

Absolutely, some stocks do not too much attention or ramping or pages and pages of discussion.

[winner69]

WTF is going on — Milford selling THL

And what’s even weirder they have been buying TRA

Brian says Milford are ‘curious’ ....must have been super ‘curious’ to buy TRA

[iceman]

WTF is going on — Milford selling THL

And what’s even weirder they have been buying TRA

Brian says Milford are ‘curious’ ....must have been super ‘curious’ to buy TRA

Only sold 10% of their holding. Wonder what he's "curious" about. Where did you read that winner ?

[winner69]

Only sold 10% of their holding. Wonder what he's "curious" about. Where did you read that winner ?

It’s the Milford radio ad ... punters need to be curious about their KiwiSaver and Milford people succeed by being curious

Cool eh

You never know ..they might still be selling ...don’t need to tell you about that now ...but they could become a SSH next week for all we know.

[Balance]

WTF is going on — Milford selling THL

And what’s even weirder they have been buying TRA

Brian says Milford are ‘curious’ ....must have been super ‘curious’ to buy TRA

Better thank Milford for supplying cheap THL stock since 2015!

Likewise, super cheap DIL shares.

Pity they put the funds into Wynyard and Metro Glass?

[percy]

WTF is going on — Milford selling THL

And what’s even weirder they have been buying TRA

Brian says Milford are ‘curious’ ....must have been super ‘curious’ to buy TRA
Makes very good sense to me.
Think you will find Milford "well positioned."

[oldtech]

SP has been stuck around the $6.00 range for nearly a month now ... needs a push start to get it started again.

[minimoke]

SP has been stuck around the $6.00 range for nearly a month now ... needs a push start to get it started again.We cant expect a never ended uptrend. I'm up 24.8% over 4 months with THL so quite content if it takes a breather.

[iceman]

We cant expect a never ended uptrend. I'm up 24.8% over 4 months with THL so quite content if it takes a breather.

Too right mm. Sharesight tells me THL shares have returned 59.63% for me so far this financial year. Not to be sneezed at and no concern if it takes a little breather. More important is the fact that the business is tracking along nicely and that's what its all about. Both NZ and USA have been doing well as we could see in the 1H results where El Monte increased EBIT by 33% or $9.5m, well ahead of forecast. Meanwhile Rentals NZ EBIT grew 78% to $6.6m during a historically low season, when they normally make a loss.

We are well positioned

[oldtech]

Very true, and looking at the chart for the past couple of years taking a breather is not unusual. Meanwhile the MA's continue on their upward trend quite nicely.

But I wouldn't complain if it decided to do a Summerset suddenly ... just saying :)

[sb9]

WTF is going on — Milford selling THL

And what’s even weirder they have been buying TRA

Brian says Milford are ‘curious’ ....must have been super ‘curious’ to buy TRA

Seems as though they're still selling....more than 500k shares traded so far and more importantly someone is accumulating them. Watch out for SSH notices to come through soon.

[McGinty]

Chart looks set up for the next leg up as momentum has started building again (backed up by volume). Would expect to see new highs hit in the next day or two :)

Added to my holding both yesterday close and this mornings open

[kizame]

Chart looks set up for the next leg up as momentum has started building again (backed up by volume). Would expect to see new highs hit in the next day or two :)

Added to my holding both yesterday close and this mornings open

I think you got my shares, I have a part order because ANZ sec platform is too slow when amending orders,even matching buys and sells it can take 5 mins to go through,way too slow. I seem to remember direct broking orders went through instantly,so whats happened...?

[cymonger]

Chart looks set up for the next leg up as momentum has started building again (backed up by volume). Would expect to see new highs hit in the next day or two :)

Added to my holding both yesterday close and this mornings open


Cheers to to all the faithful holders. I sleep better at night with this stock in my portfolio (others such as Pushpay not as soundly!). Well done on a nice add..

[McGinty]

I think you got my shares, I have a part order because ANZ sec platform is too slow when amending orders,even matching buys and sells it can take 5 mins to go through,way too slow. I seem to remember direct broking orders went through instantly,so whats happened...?

Yes, I use ANZ Sec as well and have noticed how slow some orders and amendments take to process. What use to be within 2 mins is now somewhere between 2 - 6 mins (which is ages within the market). I guess ANZ have stopped the spending in ANZ Sec now that they have sold it.

[hardt]

Yes, I use ANZ Sec as well and have noticed how slow some orders and amendments take to process. What use to be within 2 mins is now somewhere between 2 - 6 mins (which is ages within the market). I guess ANZ have stopped the spending in ANZ Sec now that they have sold it.

Imagine how slow FNZC will be with it?

Probably start up a darkpool to throw our orders into, while they skim all the low hanging fruit... not cynical or anything.

[sb9]

Hmmm..something up, almost up 25c for the day.

[sb9]

Very interesting pre-close action, not sure what to make of it. Can anyone shed a light?

[BlackPeter]

Index rebalance?

[Oliver Mander]

Would have thought that would have created upward pressure...not downward, after trading at a big increase the entire day.
Maybe Milford taking advantage of rise during day to sell?

[Oliver Mander]

THL not the only weird movement...ARV up to 123 after being at 119 the entire day...how odd (not that I'm complaining)...

[sb9]

Well, after all that excitement 2 mln+ shares traded with VWAP of $6.026.

[Oliver Mander]

1.4m of those 2.0m traded in the pre-close period.

[Scrunch]

Fbu's another that was trading up and got slammed in the close but also the hour leading up to close.

[sammiesmiles]

interestingly sellers hold their shares above 6.20 and buyers are not that keen.

[Joshuatree]

https://ir.thorindustries.com/press...r-Announces-Global-Joint-Venture/default.aspx (https://ir.thorindustries.com/press-release-and-events-calendar/press-releases/press-release-details/2018/Thor-Announces-Global-Joint-Venture/default.aspx)

Int Global JV between THL and THOR.

I hold shares in BUD (asx) who have a realtionship with THOR

[iceman]

https://ir.thorindustries.com/press...r-Announces-Global-Joint-Venture/default.aspx (https://ir.thorindustries.com/press-release-and-events-calendar/press-releases/press-release-details/2018/Thor-Announces-Global-Joint-Venture/default.aspx)

Int Global JV between THL and THOR.

I hold shares in BUD (asx) who have a realtionship with THOR

Very old news JT and discussed on here at the time !!

[Joshuatree]

15/02/18 very recent imo and Ive provided the link and the partner for those actually int.

[sb9]

Good old THL is also on a tear today....another day of higher volume and higher price. May be Milford ditching all of their holding slowly.

[golden city]

Still a happy long old shareholder

[BlackPeter]

Still a happy long old shareholder

Just help us to understand that sentence ...

You are saying, that
- you are happy (makes sort of sense)
- you are long (well, yes, might be - but how is this relevant?) and
- you are old (are you really?)

Are you?

[sb9]

Trading pretty resilient in the 429-430 range in an otherwise overall weak market. Hopefully Milford finished selling most of their stake and no one else wants to sell. Nice place to be in.

[hardt]

Trading pretty resilient in the 429-430 range in an otherwise overall weak market. Hopefully Milford finished selling most of their stake and no one else wants to sell. Nice place to be in.

I wouldn't mind buying those shares being sold in that range...

[golden city]

I still holding my. Thanks to thl make me retired 30 year earlier

[Justin]

whats happen today？

[RupertBear]

whats happen today？
Was wondering the same thing :confused:

[sb9]

whats happen today？

My pick is two reasons...

- Milford selling their remaining holding in hurry (less likely)

- Market pushing price lower for better a DRIP price since its gone ex-div on 4th and DRIP price is determined based on 5 day Weighted ave price post that date less 2% discount (more likely this one).

[winner69]

My pick is two reasons...

- Milford selling their remaining holding in hurry (less likely)

- Market pushing price lower for better a DRIP price since its gone ex-div on 4th and DRIP price is determined based on 5 day Weighted ave price post that date less 2% discount (more likely this one).

Selling and pushing price lower to get a better DRP price. Often cited as a reason for movements in stocks like today

But is this actually a common practice / strategy? Or just a theory?

Wonder if any evidence exists to say this happens ?

I have no idea but genuinely interested ..maybe an opportunity

[Justin]

My pick is two reasons...

- Milford selling their remaining holding in hurry (less likely)

- Market pushing price lower for better a DRIP price since its gone ex-div on 4th and DRIP price is determined based on 5 day Weighted ave price post that date less 2% discount (more likely this one).

which day is the last day of DRIP 5 days?

[Yoda]

Selling and pushing price lower to get a better DRP price. Often cited as a reason for movements in stocks like today

But is this actually a common practice / strategy? Or just a theory?

Wonder if any evidence exists to say this happens ?

I have no idea but genuinely interested ..maybe an opportunity
wouldn't that be classed as SP manipulation ?

[iceman]

which day is the last day of DRIP 5 days?

5 working days after the 4th, I believe.

I am with winner on this. Is there any evidence that anyone can or has pushed down prices to reduce the DRP price ? Whatever the answer is, I'm happy to accept whatever the price will be on this one.

[hardt]

DRP takes the VWAP of the 5 days following the record date -2% discount.

Example of last years interim div.

Record Date = 3/04/2017
DRP Strike Date = 10/04/2017
Payment Date = 13/04/2017
Pre Div Record SP = 375.0
Post Div Payment SP = 366.0
Dividend = 10c
DRP Strike = 351.5

The biggest volume of the month followed the DRP strike day with an 11c gain.

And the SP carried on rising shortly after the payment date, hitting 385 on the 5th of May.




Date

O

H

L

C

V



13-Apr-17

3.71

3.71

3.66

3.66

79,042



12-Apr-17

3.72

3.72

3.69

3.71

336,566



11-Apr-17

3.61

3.7

3.61

3.7

543,855



10-Apr-17

3.54

3.59

3.45

3.59

230,476



7-Apr-17

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.55

464,711



6-Apr-17

3.64

3.65

3.6

3.62

208,310



5-Apr-17

3.66

3.66

3.63

3.64

184,082



4-Apr-17

3.7

3.7

3.67

3.67

149,881



3-Apr-17

3.73

3.74

3.69

3.7

114,242



31-Mar-17

3.75

3.75

3.7

3.75

243,319



30-Mar-17

3.79

3.8

3.78

3.79

219,417

[Justin]

what's the lowest price this time？:p

[winner69]

5 working days after the 4th, I believe.

I am with winner on this. Is there any evidence that anyone can or has pushed down prices to reduce the DRP price ? Whatever the answer is, I'm happy to accept whatever the price will be on this one.

Probably just another urban myth created by worried punters who want reassurance that there is good reasons why a share price falls

[Justin]

drp strike day on tomorrow?

[Derain]

Good morning all,

Just a quick question, do we need to manually add the shares from the DRP to our ANZ/ASB accounts? I see that it showed up on link markets but not in my ANZ share account.

Thank you.

[Filthy]

Good morning all,

Just a quick question, do we need to manually add the shares from the DRP to our ANZ/ASB accounts? I see that it showed up on link markets but not in my ANZ share account.

Thank you.

Yes, you need to add manually

[Derain]

Yes, you need to add manually

Thank you!

[sb9]

Good volume for Monday, over 850k shares traded so far. I guess Milford still offloading them and more importantly who's buying, that chinese outfit perhaps....