THL - Tourism Holdings

[Yoda]

Scoop yesterday .."LGNZ President Dave Cull says that a new forecast predicting an international visitor increase of 37% to 5.1 million annually by 2024 will be a great boost to regional economies across New Zealand, however infrastructure is already under pressure and much more is needed to ensure a fair funding division is achieved between tourists and local ratepayers.
The report released by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment shows a big uplift in tourist numbers and spending, with total international visitor spend expected to reach $14.8 billion in 2024, up 40 per cent from 2017.
“The tourism sector is predicted to grow rapidly over the next two years, but as evidenced last summer infrastructure it is extremely stretched in many regions, with provision of public toilets, car parks and basic potable and waste water infrastructure coming at a substantial cost to communities,” says Mr Cull."

it all comes at a price eh ?
Bolly bands very tight .. good buyers lining up. I think this it due for a lift and will climb a bit this half year. here's hoping. It has stalled a bit, understandably, since January.

[RupertBear]

Good volume for Monday, over 850k shares traded so far. I guess Milford still offloading them and more importantly who's buying, that chinese outfit perhaps....

Dont understand Milford selling down to be honest :confused: wish I had a few more ;)

[BlackPeter]

Dont understand Milford selling down to be honest :confused: wish I had a few more ;)

I guess any share will move after some stellar rise into a consolidation (or downturn) phase. THL won't be different. Is this the time? Who knows, but if you compare the situation of us small retail investors with the big fund managers: Retail investors can typically wait until some peak is forming and sell out at their favorite MA. The big boys can't do that because there is not enough liquidity on the way down if they want to get rid of millions - i.e. they need to sell into strength.

And hey - if you look at the trend, it is certainly flattening. Quite conceivable that $6.30 was the peak ... but the bigger question for Milford is probably - is the future up potential larger than the future down potential?

Discl: hon't hold

[RTM]

Scoop yesterday .."LGNZ President Dave Cull says that a new forecast predicting an international visitor increase of 37% to 5.1 million annually by 2024 will be a great boost to regional economies across New Zealand, however infrastructure is already under pressure and much more is needed to ensure a fair funding division is achieved between tourists and local ratepayers.
The report released by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment shows a big uplift in tourist numbers and spending, with total international visitor spend expected to reach $14.8 billion in 2024, up 40 per cent from 2017.
“The tourism sector is predicted to grow rapidly over the next two years, but as evidenced last summer infrastructure it is extremely stretched in many regions, with provision of public toilets, car parks and basic potable and waste water infrastructure coming at a substantial cost to communities,” says Mr Cull."

it all comes at a price eh ?
Bolly bands very tight .. good buyers lining up. I think this it due for a lift and will climb a bit this half year. here's hoping. It has stalled a bit, understandably, since January.

That all just sounds awful. right up there with converting the McKenzie country to dairy. IMO something is wrong with how we are measuring progress in New Zealand.

[winner69]

I guess any share will move after some stellar rise into a consolidation (or downturn) phase. THL won't be different. Is this the time? Who knows, but if you compare the situation of us small retail investors with the big fund managers: Retail investors can typically wait until some peak is forming and sell out at their favorite MA. The big boys can't do that because there is not enough liquidity on the way down if they want to get rid of millions - i.e. they need to sell into strength.

And hey - if you look at the trend, it is certainly flattening. Quite conceivable that $6.30 was the peak ... but the bigger question for Milford is probably - is the future up potential larger than the future down potential?

Discl: hon't hold

Quite a few of these high flying stocks on the NZX have charts showing this ‘consolidation’ pattern and down a bit off their highs ......similar patterns were evident in 2007 as well

The bullish case is always most compelling on the highs.

Just saying

[Valuegrowth]

According to the PATA, top Asia pacific tourism destinations in annual growth terms would be Sri-Lanka, Japan, China, Macao Sar and Thailand in the coming years. Hotelier IHG.L is having room revenue rises thanks to strong demand from China.

Could NZ also have some growth in tourism? How it will benefit tourism holdings? Will there be more chinese visitors?

Cheers

[iceman]

According to the PATA, top Asia pacific tourism destinations in annual growth terms would be Sri-Lanka, Japan, China, Macao Sar and Thailand in the coming years. Hotelier IHG.L is having room revenue rises thanks to strong demand from China.

Could NZ also have some growth in tourism? How it will benefit tourism holdings? Will there be more chinese visitors?

Cheers

Visitor numbers to NZ currently around 3.8m per year, up from 2.9m about 3 years ago. Forecasted to hit 5m in 2022-2023. THL should see a significant benefit from this.

[Ggcc]

Someone has to win and this company should benefit from the increase in tourists. I feel for other tourist operators who will be struggling with these thoughts. Where do I get the staff required for this? How can I afford to pay basic minimum wages of $20 per hour and if I pay more will they still be available? We already have a shortage in the labour force when tourism comes into play and they all complain that they are not earning enough. Does THL have contingencies for the extra costs flying their way?

[Beagle]

Visitor numbers to NZ currently around 3.8m per year, up from 2.9m about 3 years ago. Forecasted to hit 5m in 2022-2023. THL should see a significant benefit from this.

Its already heinously overcrowded at Queenstown. This level of tourism will basically ruin the experience for New Zealanders travelling in their own country.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/103858839/tourism-tax-may-never-be-perfect-but-something-must-be-done-to-protect-the-industry I think we need to start charging a serious cost to pay for the infrastructure required so they're not doing their business on the side of the road by the lake.

[iceman]

Someone has to win and this company should benefit from the increase in tourists. I feel for other tourist operators who will be struggling with these thoughts. Where do I get the staff required for this? How can I afford to pay basic minimum wages of $20 per hour and if I pay more will they still be available? We already have a shortage in the labour force when tourism comes into play and they all complain that they are not earning enough. Does THL have contingencies for the extra costs flying their way?

Totally agree Ggcc. The issues you raise, as well as immigration restrictions on people willing to work in this industry (and other service and primary industries) are serious issues for all tourism and leisure businesses. Hard for any of them to have contingencies in place though, when they still don't know what the rules will be. BBut we have to assume THL's business will be less affected than many other much more labour intensive businesses.

Agree Beagle that we should be implementing a tourism levy to pay for some of the required infrastructure and service

[Filthy]

I think we need to start charging a serious cost to pay for the infrastructure required so they're not doing their business on the side of the road by the lake.

full agree mate. from memory, I recently paid city tax in both venice and rome - which was about 5 euro a night pp (collected by the hotels 'on behalf of'). As a tourist, I didn't mind paying it at all. Don't think it will dent numbers coming to NZ if it was implemented - rather improve their experiences when they get here provided it is directly reinvested (rather than used for something else). It might even help boost numbers....

[iceman]

full agree mate. from memory, I recently paid city tax in both venice and rome - which was about 5 euro a night pp (collected by the hotels 'on behalf of'). As a tourist, I didn't mind paying it at all. Don't think it will dent numbers coming to NZ if it was implemented - rather improve their experiences when they get here provided it is directly reinvested (rather than used for something else). It might even help boost numbers....

I have a problem with a hotel tax as a solution to this. It does not deal with freedom campers that are causing a lot of the issues we are facing and having to fix. An arrival fee would be much fairer and simpler in my view. Any councils could also charge local taxes such as hotel taxes if they want, as long as the money gathered is used for the intended purpose.

[Beagle]

I have a problem with a hotel tax as a solution to this. It does not deal with freedom campers that are causing a lot of the issues we are facing and having to fix. An arrival fee would be much fairer and simpler in my view. Any councils could also charge local taxes such as hotel taxes if they want, as long as the money gathered is used for the intended purpose.

Agree 100%. My brother bought a so called self contained camper van the other day which I had a look at yesterday. Not really big enough to swing a cat. I don't know what the spec's are that are required to meet the definition of self contained but a porta potti and a 20L grey water containment tank seems to be stretching the credibility of the definition in my opinion. That porta potti has to be emptied and cleaned somewhere every couple / few days. He's probably a responsible chap but tourists here for a week or two...who knows ?
We definitely need a LOT more infrastructure and more staff to attend to it, something that's perfectly obvious to anyone trying to find an unoccupied clean public toilet anywhere in Queenstown in the busy summer season :eek2:

[winner69]

Does increasing oil prices inhibit punters travel intentions?

thl will be ok won’t they?

[upside_umop]

Does increasing oil prices inhibit punters travel intentions?

thl will be ok won’t they?

I'd put THL in a similar bucket to AIR. I.e. THL and AIR are both highly leveraged to economic growth and oil prices. When oil prices increase, economic activity slows and prices increase. THL with their largely fixed costs, low margins and capital intensive business will suffer.....much like an airline does in times like these.

Without being too controversial, it I was betting oil was to continue to trend towards $100+ for the next 18 months, this is stock I'd be selling along with AIR NZ.

[winner69]

I see thl is added to MSCI Small Cap Index whatever that means.

[cymonger]

I see thl is added to MSCI Small Cap Index whatever that means.

Seems like it would be at least a marginally positive thing, no? Of all the stock I own, this is the one I'm on the fence about. Oil seems to be on the upward ride now. Don't think it will slow people coming to NZ in any meaningful way, but you never know long term. As others have pointed out, a tourism tax might help with the infrastructure issues. I've been to Costa Rica many times, and am always happy to pay the 35$ (ish) fee. I've already committed to traveling there, and this is just another minor expense.

Long term I think this continues to go up. No brainer really. But pretty stuck in the mud at the moment.

[sb9]

I see thl is added to MSCI Small Cap Index whatever that means.

With all exuberance of discussion around A2 being added to MSCI, looks as though everyone forgot about this one.

Nice one THL!!!

[minimoke]

I see thl is added to MSCI Small Cap Index whatever that means.
It means I'm going to have to get more canterbury Creme in as my portfolio continues to grow. (11% of it is in THL so happy with todays wee rise)

[sb9]

Quietly marching along, $6.45 now...

[golden city]

Looking forward to marching up to 10 dollar. Until takeover present :)

[sb9]

Looking forward to marching up to 10 dollar. Until takeover present :)

Yes, lower fx rate with USD is certainly a boost in more than one way with their US operations earnings along with added boost to tourism from international visitors to NZ. Win win overall, can't complain.

[cymonger]

Yes, lower fx rate with USD is certainly a boost in more than one way with their US operations earnings along with added boost to tourism from international visitors to NZ. Win win overall, can't complain.


I can't help thinking about Warren Buffet's advice about avoiding the "hot" stocks and sticking with boring and reliable. With everyone living and dying with these wild daily milk stock swings, it's kind of nice to just sit on a reliable winner like this.

[Leftfield]

I can't help thinking about Warren Buffet's advice about avoiding the "hot" stocks and sticking with boring and reliable. With everyone living and dying with these wild daily milk stock swings, it's kind of nice to just sit on a reliable winner like this.

THL is now my portfolio's second largest holding after ATM, so yes I too welcome the stability of this one. But hey, I still love HOT Stocks! :t_up:

[BlackPeter]

I can't help thinking about Warren Buffet's advice about avoiding the "hot" stocks and sticking with boring and reliable. With everyone living and dying with these wild daily milk stock swings, it's kind of nice to just sit on a reliable winner like this.

Well, yes - they are doing quite nicely - don't they? But not sure I would put THL too deep down in the bottom drawer. Just wait for tourism streams to change (due to e.g. airfares rising, reduced international security, economic downturn, increased hostility of the natives, fading clean & green myth) and it will get a bit bumpy ;);

Just because we had a quite nice run up for the last five years does not mean it will go upwards forever ...

If you want really boring but profitable, than buy stocks like MFT, CDI (discl: holding both) or SUM retirement stock (discl: holding SUM & OCA);

don't hold THL;

[cymonger]

THL is now my portfolio's second largest holding after ATM, so yes I too welcome the stability of this one. But hey, I still love HOT Stocks! :t_up:


Full disclosure, I do own a LITTLE of this milk stuff. Made quite a lot in A2 and got out. Own Synlait now. Some of your portfolio can surely be used to take a few risks, depending on where you are at in the saving process. Those big bangers are pretty awesome.


But SUM, THL, etc. are what I call my "boat drink" stocks. Invest now, enjoy some drinks with umbrellas in them when I'm done working.

[Oliver Mander]

This WAS my 2nd biggest behind ATM until the last couple of days...now its the biggest :-). Very happy to hold.

[golden city]

Thl is my biggest holding for these four years. It is 80% of my portfolio

[cymonger]

What a great day. Cheers to you faithful holders. The beat goes on!

[bull....]

rob cambell overseaing the ship has had a big impact , nearly a 7 bagger

[Benny1]

Yep, happy to keep holding this for a while yet!
Just wished I got in a bit earlier and had bought a hell of a lot more, still my biggest holding at the moment, its has added over 50% in value plus dividend's over the last few years,
have to be happy with that, and long my it continue !!:t_up:

[Balance]

rob cambell overseaing the ship has had a big impact , nearly a 7 bagger

Followed Rob Campbell in and most satisfied holder.

[minimoke]

11% of portfolio #2 is made up of THL. 40% increase in six months makes me a happy camper. #2 is bulging nicely at teh moment with ATM, SML, PPH, RBC to keep THL company.

Backing THL again was a good move as Im up 237% with THL in Portfolio #1. AS Balance says, great move bringing Rob Campbell on board

[ShouldHaveHeld]

I'm glad to have opted into the re-investment plan! :t_up:

[iceman]

11% of portfolio #2 is made up of THL. 40% increase in six months makes me a happy camper. #2 is bulging nicely at teh moment with ATM, SML, PPH, RBC to keep THL company.

Backing THL again was a good move as Im up 237% with THL in Portfolio #1. AS Balance says, great move bringing Rob Campbell on board

Mini our portfolios seem to be very similar with all the same stocks. Agree with the comments on THL and Rob Campbell both here and over at SUM. He's doing a splendid job in both companies. Both are substantial parts of my portfolio and have been for a long time and both have produced the goods. I see no reason to sell.

[minimoke]

Mini our portfolios seem to be very similar with all the same stocks. Agree with the comments on THL and Rob Campbell both here and over at SUM. He's doing a splendid job in both companies. Both are substantial parts of my portfolio and have been for a long time and both have produced the goods. I see no reason to sell.
Ah yes - I have some SUM as well. THL hasn't all been plain sailing though. Bought the first lot in Portfolio #1 back in 2005. Enjoyed a bit of a rise for a couple of years. But then it was 7 years of misery, hanging onto what clearly had potential but consistently failed to deliver. The lesson - look closely at the leadership. Some deliver on what they say they will so you know where you stand. Others (eg PEB) fail to and simply dont earn the right to be held by a shareholder.

[sb9]

$6.75 as I type, looks like no stopping on this lil monster.....:)

[hotshothendo]

Why the big drop yesterday??

[Cricketfan]

Why the big drop yesterday??

Probably the same reason as the recent rises? i.e. who knows

[Justin]

Big drop with huge trades

[couta1]

Big drop with huge trades If it drops below $6, it might be worth buying.

[Beagle]

If it drops below $6, it might be worth buying.

Agree. I think the whole MSCI small company index inclusion thing that propelled it over that level could just be temporary.

[Justin]

I’m wonder who buying yesterday, approximately 2.8 million shares sold around $6.53 yesterday. It’s that Chinese coming ?

[iceman]

Agree. I think the whole MSCI small company index inclusion thing that propelled it over that level could just be temporary.

Yes these index additions don't go to plan eh mate ??
Steady as she goes here though as she has over the last couple of years. A little over exuberance and readjustments along the way. All good :-)

[sb9]

Yes these index additions don't go to plan eh mate ??
Steady as she goes here though as she has over the last couple of years. A little over exuberance and readjustments along the way. All good :-)

Its all good, price seem to creep back up and on good volume too.

[cymonger]

Interesting listening to the CEO of THL talk this morning about the tourist tax and it's possible affect on the industry as a whole. Some of that money will hopefully go to updates in infrastructure to keep things rolling along. Cheers to the faithful holders enjoying being close to the all-time highs this week. Stay the course faithful shareholders. This one has been very good to us.

[Yoda]

Just reviewing my stocks for 6 months review. This certainly just keeps giving and giving …
5yr growth over 1000%..
2yr 140%,
1yr 60 %.

no sign of flattening really. ………
14% of my portfolio here, but should have put 100% 5 yrs ago !!!!!!

[golden city]

It is 80% of my portfolio from 6 years ago. Now it is 88% of my portfolio

[Yoda]

Smart move. Well done....

[kiwico]

It is 80% of my portfolio from 6 years ago. Now it is 88% of my portfolio

Good to see you've done well but that is far too many eggs in one basket for my liking.

[couta1]

Good to see you've done well but that is far too many eggs in one basket for my liking. Not a problem with the amount of profit he will be sitting on.

[winner69]

Jeff Bezos has made a few bob over the years

If you read the first few pages of this document (the Amazon 2004 AR bit) you get the idea Jeff prefers cash flow per share instead of earnings per share

Based on THL last three years cash flow per share of 20c (F15) / 0.5c (F16) / 5c (F17) / 15c may F18(excluding acquisition capex) and a current book value of $1.73 I think Jeff would say that at $6.60 THL is very very very very expensive if not totally unrealistically overvalued

http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/97/976/97664/items/144853/2004_Annual_report.pdf

[RTM]

Good to see you've done well but that is far too many eggs in one basket for my liking.

Completely agree, well done GC, you picked these guys really early on and have done really well. I followed your comments and jumped in much later and have still done well. If I was in your position, it would be time for some diworseification. Even though that might not be so exciting.

[golden city]

I am thinking about diversify too but it’s dividebds is good. Growth is thrive Hard to make the decisions

[golden city]

And I am sitting on carry free positions Make it even harder to considering selling

[golden city]

I have my mind on this stock valuation at 8.90 to even 10 dollar

[Beagle]

Jeff Bezos has made a few bob over the years

If you read the first few pages of this document (the Amazon 2004 AR bit) you get the idea Jeff prefers cash flow per share instead of earnings per share

Based on THL last three years cash flow per share of 20c (F15) / 0.5c (F16) / 5c (F17) / 15c may F18(excluding acquisition capex) and a current book value of $1.73 I think Jeff would say that at $6.60 THL is very very very very expensive if not totally unrealistically overvalued

http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/97/976/97664/items/144853/2004_Annual_report.pdf

"The Don" won his court battle on the Muslim country ban list right ? Fallout from his waging war on all trade fronts (even with his former allies) to hit tourism into the U.S. ?

[iceman]

"The Don" won his court battle on the Muslim country ban list right ? Fallout from his waging war on all trade fronts (even with his former allies) to hit tourism into the U.S. ?

If that happens "The Don" will require Americans to holiday at home or he will tax them "more, a lot more".
So no worries for THL :-)

[Beagle]

If that happens "The Don" will require Americans to holiday at home or he will tax them "more, a lot more".
So no worries for THL :-)

LOL Touché :) This dog reckons however that in general terms it's getting a little colder out there, (perhaps just a reflection of what I see unfolding in N.Z. so maybe somewhat myopic vision or maybe not) which can't be good for tourism... https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/105355959/public-service-workers-hit-by-deluge-as-government-warns-of-a-rainy-day ….oh wait no worries Kiwi's will all holiday at home and everything will be fine and dandy no matter how many trade wars there are affecting worldwide economic growth :)

[Justin]

seem like ppl are selling for school holiday trip today :eek2:

[hotshothendo]

Good time to buy??

[sb9]

Good time to buy??

Not sure, going by trading depth the sell side shows bit of bearish trend at the moment. But it can change pretty quickly. To be fair it had such good run in recent months, must be time for profit taking before FY results are out next month.

[Justin]

such good run in recent years as well

[golden city]

I am a believer of the management.

[cymonger]

Seems like a weird time to sell. They will announce a big dividend in about a month (likely there biggest ever) that will make everyone pretty happy. My only guess is it's related to the tradewars, as THl is a company that benefits from both American and Chinese tourists.

[hardt]

Seems anything US related is pulling back very nicely, could be good buying out there.

Have orders trailing 90DMA on a few things out there and THL landed yesterday.

I could just be drunk on this thought that overblown pullbacks have to revert in the short term.

[bull....]

chinese tourists are embracing RV travelling so any reduction in chinese tourists in us will affect company

[iceman]

chinese tourists are embracing RV travelling so any reduction in chinese tourists in us will affect company

Unless they choose to come to NZ instead

[Sideshow Bob]

chinese tourists are embracing RV travelling so any reduction in chinese tourists in us will affect company

But improve some of the driving around tourist areas.....

[Balance]

Unless they choose to come to NZ instead

NO! Last thing we need!

[hotshothendo]

NO! Last thing we need!

More along the lines of group self drive I think, follow the leader around nz.

[bull....]

i forgot to mention tarriffs on steel will increase the price of RV to purchase and naintenance costs will go up

[couta1]

Bought a parcel of these a couple of days ago, timing was out, never mind will just hold the falling stone.

[Beagle]

"The Don" won his court battle on the Muslim country ban list right ? Fallout from his waging war on all trade fronts (even with his former allies) to hit tourism into the U.S. ?
Posted just 4 days ago at $6.50.
Big break down through the 100 day MA which is $6.30 now to $6.10. Its had a marvelous run these last few years..market perhaps starting to wonder if there isn't at least some small element of cyclicality to THL's earnings ? http://www.4-traders.com/TOURISM-HOLDINGS-LTD-6491392/financials/
I don't think its expensive per se, but in a risk off environment I guess some might ask are their earnings as resilient as more defensive stocks ?

[BlackPeter]

Posted just 4 days ago at $6.50.
Big break down through the 100 day MA which is $6.30 now to $6.10. Its had a marvelous run these last few years and is priced pretty much for perfection...market starting to wonder if there isn't at least some small element of cyclicality to THL's earnings ?

Ouch - just looked at market depth - hardly any buyers left.

I guess - sure they might have peaked, but lacking any announcement - what is going on?

[Beagle]

Ouch - just looked at market depth - hardly any buyers left.

I guess - sure they might have peaked, but lacking any announcement - what is going on?


I edited that as its not priced for perfection on a forward PE of mid 16's but I guess its just the whole political environment at the moment BP. Will trade wars expand into tourism wars and if global markets turn bearish do people cut back on expensive holidays a bit ? A decent family holiday in a THL camper in the South Island for say 10 days is not a cheap exercise for a family.

[couta1]

Probably people cashing up for school holiday money, tourism ain't slowing down anytime soon.

[Scrunch]

Posted just 4 days ago at $6.50.
Big break down through the 100 day MA which is $6.30 now to $6.10. Its had a marvelous run these last few years and is priced pretty much for perfection...market starting to wonder if there isn't at least some small element of cyclicality to THL's earnings ? http://www.4-traders.com/TOURISM-HOLDINGS-LTD-6491392/financials/
I don't think its expensive per se, but in a risk off environment I guess some might ask are their earnings as resilient as more defensive stocks ?

Possibly, but $8+ would be a better chacterisation on priced for perfection. At $6.10 they have a market cap of $751m. With a stated couple of year goal of $50m of profits that's a forward PE of 15. Perfection - no. Meeting stated goals - yes

Disc - holding.

[bull....]

if you consider china cant match us tarriff , they have to use other measure. in sth korea they asked people not to go to sth korea it had huge impact on tourism so ya get the idea in us have big impact in us for rv rentals

[golden city]

Chinese tourist use rv. Are too small %

[Beagle]

Possibly, but $8+ would be a better chacterisation on priced for perfection. At $6.10 they have a market cap of $751m. With a stated couple of year goal of $50m of profits that's a forward PE of 15. Perfection - no. Meeting stated goals - yes

Disc - holding.

I did edit that post and concede its not priced for perfection but I guess the question is are those earnings at risk if from a global trade perspective we keeping heading down the road "the Don" is driving us on ? I don't really know the answer...but right at the minute perhaps the market is looking more favorably upon companies with more defensive earnings characteristics ?

[couta1]

I did edit that post and concede its not priced for perfection but I guess the question is are those earnings at risk if from a global trade perspective we keeping heading down the road "the Don" is driving us on ? I don't really know the answer...but right at the minute perhaps the market is looking more favorably upon companies with more defensive earnings characteristics ? The market is Irrational and Schizophrenic, that's the reason for most SP drops without any concrete reason. Actually now that I think about it, "the Don" also has those characteristics.

[sb9]

I did edit that post and concede its not priced for perfection but I guess the question is are those earnings at risk if from a global trade perspective we keeping heading down the road "the Don" is driving us on ?

Their US earnings is not entirely dependant on Chinese or overseas tourists, they've enough people locally to fill the demand for their RVs.

If anything they've big tailwinds in terms of favourable exchange rate and recently announced lower tax rates for US corporates.

Long term story still intact and the current short term volatility is just passing cloud. Also, the current price might draw attractiveness that Chinese entity to up their stake further.

[Scrunch]

Interestingly if you use the anz securities 5yr chart there's 6 times that the share price has touched or spent a little bit of time around the 100 day ma. With hindsight each one would have been a good buying opportunity. Just saying.

[Balance]

Their US earnings is not entirely dependant on Chinese or overseas tourists, they've enough people locally to fill the demand for their RVs.

If anything they've big tailwinds in terms of favourable exchange rate and recently announced lower tax rates for US corporates.

Long term story still intact and the current short term volatility is just passing cloud. Also, the current price might draw attractiveness that Chinese entity to up their stake further.

Or are they trying to sell their stake?

[bull....]

Chinese tourist use rv. Are too small %

you probably right , 4.54m chines tourists go there out of roughly 40m tourists so % that drive rv probably small but growing

[winner69]

Or are they trying to sell their stake?

Heck no

thl is a gold mine ....even though it doesn’t generate much in the way of cash

[percy]

Posted just 4 days ago at $6.50.
Big break down through the 100 day MA which is $6.30 now to $6.10. Its had a marvelous run these last few years..market perhaps starting to wonder if there isn't at least some small element of cyclicality to THL's earnings ? http://www.4-traders.com/TOURISM-HOLDINGS-LTD-6491392/financials/
I don't think its expensive per se, but in a risk off environment I guess some might ask are their earnings as resilient as more defensive stocks ?

EPS growth may be causing concern.
…………………………………..2018...………………...2019...………..2020
eps...…………………………….37.9...…………………..38.1...………...42. 8
eps growth...…………………………………..053%...………….12.3%...……. av for 2 years 6.175%
PE ratio. 16.7...…………………...16.6...……….14.8..so PE ratio is 2.54 times eps growth.

[Beagle]

EPS growth may be causing concern.
…………………………………..2018...………………...2019...………..20 20
eps...…………………………….37.9...…………………..38.1...………...42. 8
eps growth...…………………………………..053%...………….12.3%...……. av for 2 years 6.175%
PE ratio. 16.7...…………………...16.6...……….14.8..so PE ratio is 2.54 times eps growth.


Thanks, yeah its an interesting one. I have held before and had good returns. Different sectors but the same Chairman in Rob Campbell who is well respected....back in November last year both SUM and THL were ostensibly trading around the same price and the same PE. I made the call then to invest more in SUM as I think not only is the earnings growth more robust but the earnings by their nature are more defensive and there's stronger demographic tailwinds. I'm pleased with that portfolio allocation strategy and believe the basis behind it still holds true in the current environment.


That said THL's PE at 16 or thereabouts is not unreasonable, its just a question of does growth in tourism continue at decent pace if the wheels come off in terms of a full blown trade war ?

[percy]

I do not know,however "the market" is saying it doubts it will.
So should we decide to "only" pay twice the 6.175 eps growth?
6.175 x 2 =12.35.
So PE of 12.35 times year 2020 eps of .428, gives a share price of $5.28.
SUM easier decisions elsewhere,should you follow Rob??

[Beagle]

I am a little worried that Rob Campbell is over extending himself with his new additional role at SKC. THL a much bigger and more complex company too now days with its American operations. I think I preferred THL when it was mainly a N.Z. operation. Lots of additional thinking around exposure to U.S. influenced events now which is good if things go well over there but does change the risk profile of the company, at least in my mind.

[percy]

I am a little worried that Rob Campbell is over extending himself with his new additional role at SKC. THL a much bigger and more complex company too now days with its American operations. I think I preferred THL when it was mainly a N.Z. operation. Lots of additional thinking around exposure to U.S. influenced events now which is good if things go well over there but does change the risk profile of the company, at least in my mind.

Yes agreed SKC is "a step too far."
And THL is now very complex.

[winner69]

Some 11% off recent high

Almost Getting past correction territory to COLLAPSE territory

[BlackPeter]

Some 11% off recent high

Almost Getting past correction territory to COLLAPSE territory

Well, EMA 200 is at $5.80 ... will be interesting to see, whether this holds. Looks however some buyers start showing interest.

[couta1]

Some 11% off recent high

Almost Getting past correction territory to COLLAPSE territory Just a normal stoploss % for those who use them, looks like low volume boredom selling to me, no worries.

[Beagle]

Yes agreed SKC is "a step too far."
And THL is now very complex.

He told the SUM annual meeting the board are spending a LOT of time and effort looking at expanding into Melbourne Australia too which adds even more to his workload. (I hope they're very careful as John Ryder noted in his most recent newsletter that real estate there was down 5% year on year) My father was a workaholic...I feel sorry for Rob's family members.

Anyway back to THL...maybe its worth a punt at just over $6 but I am pretty risk averse right at the minute and favour companies supplying needs based goods and services. Nobody really needs to splash a significant sum of money on an expensive campervan holiday do they so if the custard hits the fan people might pull their heads in a bit when it comes to expensive holidays ?

[Leftfield]

Anyway back to THL...maybe its worth a punt at just over $6 but I am pretty risk averse right at the minute and favour companies supplying needs based goods and services. Nobody really needs to splash a significant sum of money on an expensive campervan holiday do they so if the custard hits the fan people might pull their heads in a bit when it comes to expensive holidays ?

I've got about 10% of my portfolio in THL and have done very nicely since the days when you were advocating AIR. IMO THL covers the Tourism segment much better and is much less open to risk than AIR.

I also like THL's growing air b-n-b of camper vans technology (RoadTrippers/Mighway/CamperMate etc.) THL can clip the ticket on a lot of holidays that THL wouldn't otherwise get.

Disc; Holding and will buy on any dip.

[Beagle]

I respect your viewpoint but its perhaps worth noting that AIR (unlike THL) made profits throughout the GFC, (which speaks for itself in terms of which business is more resilient in a severe recession in my opinion), but there's no question that Rob Campbell has worked some serious magic on this company during his tenure and for all intents and purposes most shareholders have forgotten there's some element of cyclicality to its earnings. Only time and the next recession will demonstrate how resilient their business model is now but I note AIR have shown quite some resilience this year in the face of adversity and on a PE of just 9 it makes a good case for itself especially in regard to its gross yield of close to 10%.

Some investors will have taken notes that RYM grew their underlying earnings throughout the GFC which augers well for SUM. I think you can get Rob's undoubted brilliant expertise SUMwhere else for less risk and higher growth for free and on similar metrics apart from the dividend yield but each to their own and congrats to long term holders, you've done well.

[Filthy]

LTH’s please correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t THL used to be predominately be an NZ tour-type-operator i.e. experience based?
Since the company ‘reinvented itself’ as a market leading RV company (cross-country) I see it as a vastly different business to it once was...
While I agree it is always wise to look back at past performance, I do wonder how much emphasis can be placed on THL during the last bear market..?
I suspect that some tail-winds would still remain intact even in a bad economic conditions, as baby-boomers will still look to continually spend their wealth on travel (while they are healthy & able) before they eventually snuff it. I also reckon the US(A) is mostly an internally lead market and NZ/AUS rv’s are mostly used by UK/EURO’s so there may be no affect from the ‘trade-war’ at all (unless it changes the overall marco environment)
Thinking out loud, if one tries to figure out how best to capitalise on the ‘baby-boomer trend’, it might look something like this:
THL, AIR, HBL (reverse mort to pay for travel) à GXH, VHP, HSO, RHC (hospitals & prescriptions) à SUM, OCA, RYM, ARV (retirement & care) à IVC, PFP (funerals).
.….. anyway - I digress…..I’ll be topping up on THL if it continues to drop…. As the wise ‘ld Percy always advocates…. increasing divi’s - whats not to love? a 14-cent final?

[iceman]

LTH’s please correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t THL used to be predominately be an NZ tour-type-operator i.e. experience based?
Since the company ‘reinvented itself’ as a market leading RV company (cross-country) I see it as a vastly different business to it once was...
While I agree it is always wise to look back at past performance, I do wonder how much emphasis can be placed on THL during the last bear market..?
I suspect that some tail-winds would still remain intact even in a bad economic conditions, as baby-boomers will still look to continually spend their wealth on travel (while they are healthy & able) before they eventually snuff it. I also reckon the US(A) is mostly an internally lead market and NZ/AUS rv’s are mostly used by UK/EURO’s so there may be no affect from the ‘trade-war’ at all (unless it changes the overall marco environment)
Thinking out loud, if one tries to figure out how best to capitalise on the ‘baby-boomer trend’, it might look something like this:
THL, AIR, HBL (reverse mort to pay for travel) à GXH, VHP, HSO, RHC (hospitals & prescriptions) à SUM, OCA, RYM, ARV (retirement & care) à IVC, PFP (funerals).
.….. anyway - I digress…..I’ll be topping up on THL if it continues to drop…. As the wise ‘ld Percy always advocates…. increasing divi’s - whats not to love? a 14-cent final?

That is how pretty much see it as well Filthy. The THL of today, thanks largely to Rob's stewardship, is a very different beast to the THL of yesteryear. But I think Beagle has a point should we hit a global recession that THL, like very many businesses, will be affected. How much is anyone's guess and with the way Trump is carrying on (like meddling in UK politics yesterday), I don't think one can predict very much at all about the global situation these days.

[golden city]

People forgoton the th2 big growth story in the next a few years will be major. It is like a air bnb plateform. Has some big valuation going forward

[Brain]

I first bought these shares in 2012 at average 65c. Not very many unfortunately. Golden City has always been a cheer leader for THL. I suspect he has made a heap of money out of THL and good on him. I hope he is right about the future prospects for THL. On his past record I am sure he will be right. GC seems to understand the business way more than most.

[Justin]

thanks golden city and Brian，make me more firmly to hold. But the problem is since first week of school holiday, the THL SP dropped more than 10%, seem like somebody desperately selling and dont care about price, and most of us here dont know the reason，and there are another school holiday week coming soon:confused:

[golden city]

Let’s have a relax holiday and comeback take the dividends :t_up:

[Patient Panda]

I see THL as a good business with great management. Not overvalued like many I see on the NZX board but also not a bargain either.

I don’t know its history in detail by any means but I believe they’d do far better focusing on their tourism experiences side of the business than such a capital heavy focus on rv’s and campers e.g el monte acquisition in U.S .

By their nature campers require large amounts of debt to achieve acceptable returns on equity or shareholder funds which makes them vulnerable to rate rises and just more vulnerable in general.

their tourism business are extremely capital light, very easy to build large amounts of goodwill when you have all the happy customers giving glowing reviews online etc.
though its not an asset THL owns theres several extremely viral videos of the giant queenstown swing on facebook giving them what looks like a tidal wave of customers screaming to do it themselves.

in 2016 annual report their tourism sector achieved 37% ROFE vs. 15.6% for average camper ROFE.

If they just focus on the NZ market and use the Kiwi experience bus and tablet / software in their campers to guide punters round the country to THL’s different experiences while developing new ones and acquiring others at reasonable prices they would do extremely, extremely well, I think.


bit of rambling but just a bit of fun



disc; do not hold.

[Brain]

What Golden City was alluding to when he referred to THL as the Air Bnb was THL connecting customers to privately owned camper vans. No capital required here just software and systems. Could be very lucrative. Air BnB is a very good analogy. A global business perhaps.

[Patient Panda]

What Golden City was alluding to when he referred to THL as the Air Bnb was THL connecting customers to privately owned camper vans. No capital required here just software and systems. Could be very lucrative. Air BnB is a very good analogy. A global business perhaps.

yes I’m aware of that and its an interesting development. How hard would it be for airbnb to add campervan functionaility? I think extremely easy and they already have the systems, customer base etc..

watching with interest.


That queenstown swing is the only one in the world afaik and certainly the only one with the crazy queenstown scenery and backdrop. Nice big moat with that one, would love to see its numbers.

[Robomo]

The SP is now at the same level as it was 2 months ago and is still ahead of what it was after the half-yearly result was announced in February (about $5.98 February, $6.07 now). There have been no announcements from the company since February and the volume of shares being traded in the past two months is very small. Seems to me there is a bit of profit taking mixed with a bit of fear. Despite USA politics, tourism is still flourishing and airlines are still making profits and ordering new planes. Maybe the THL SP got a bit ahead of itself but in the absence of any advice from the company all seems to be in good order. Go back and read the half-yearly report!

From my perspective it's a case of do nothing, pick up a few more shares if it drops below the February 2018 peak ($$5.98) and wait for the full year report next month. My pick is that it will be reporting continuing improvement and the SP will resume it's upward climb. I bought in at an average of $1.96 three years ago and have accumulated more from the DRP ever since so I'm a very happy holder.

[winner69]

yes I’m aware of that and its an interesting development. How hard would it be for airbnb to add campervan functionaility? I think extremely easy and they already have the systems, customer base etc..

watching with interest.


That queenstown swing is the only one in the world afaik and certainly the only one with the crazy queenstown scenery and backdrop. Nice big moat with that one, would love to see its numbers.

It’s more than just an Airbnb thing panda ...it’s an entire ecosystem for RV lovers.....trip planning, reservations, maintainence schedules etc etc ....a real community for RV people worldwide.

You know the power of these things eh ....ginormous potential in being part of it

Have a look ....better still get the app

https://roadtrippers.com/new-zealand

Then go global

[Patient Panda]

My mistake. Sounds much more valuable than I had it pictured in my head.

I do actually know a frw people who use campermate and are very keen on it.

[winner69]

My mistake. Sounds much more valuable than I had it pictured in my head.

I do actually know a frw people who use campermate and are very keen on it.

I’m sure that thl will do well by involved in this ecosystem

Besides the interaction with rv users betcha the ticket is clipped several times from all the advertising and referral stuff.

[golden city]

The Eco system might eventually introduce rv finance with th2

[iceman]

The Eco system might eventually introduce rv finance with th2

A good observation/comment. I had not thought of that but a real possibility when you think about it.

[golden city]

Thor with over 6 billion dollar sales with thl distribution and Roadtrippers road assistant and database , a rv finance could growing very fast into the billions books that is valuable

[winner69]

updated this thl chart just to see what may happen in the next year or two

Forecast eps based on $39m for F18 and $50m for F19 (normalised ...without the one off gains expected F18)

Sort of looks OK but share price might have got ahead of itself a bit

Current PE about 19 which is getting pretty high for a company which isn't really generating that much cash

Like these charts as besides showing whats happened (esp earnings) it gives you a feel of market sentiment over time. As we all know market sentiment is one of the key drivers of share price.

[Beagle]

updated this thl chart just to see what may happen in the next year or two

Forecast eps based on $39m for F18 and $50m for F19 (normalised ...without the one off gains expected F18)

Sort of looks OK but share price might have got ahead of itself a bit

Current PE about 19 which is getting pretty high for a company which isn't really generating that much cash

Like these charts as besides showing whats happened (esp earnings) it gives you a feel of market sentiment over time. As we all know market sentiment is one of the key drivers of share price.

Its not the only one in this market by any means but that's pretty much how I see it too.

[golden city]

I think they might looking at new acqusition again in euro this year

[winner69]

I think they might looking at new acqusition again in euro this year

Hopefully more than looking gc

Need another big acquisition to take the share price to another level. Without one hard to see it getting over $7 in next year or two.

Watching the Tour de France .....the French love their RVs by the looks of it

[bull....]

thl sitting on support + oversold after last weeks big decline. brought some more myself on friday

[golden city]

Good on you bull

[bull....]

yes be interesting if thl increase there div for full yr , every other yr the final has been larger than the interim

[golden city]

I think will be 14 or 15c final dividends

[Hectorplains]

I think they might looking at new acqusition again in euro this year

At the risk of being a Debbie Downer, this acquisition talk has done the rounds before on here and to no avail.

[winner69]

At the risk of being a Debbie Downer, this acquisition talk has done the rounds before on here and to no avail.

Hi Debbie

thl have had several acquisitions in last few years. The last acquisition one was completed just over a year ago and since then they have had that Thor JV

So no doubt one coming up in next year

[bull....]

someone still selling wonder if milford?

[winner69]

Chairman Rob not that long ago said - “We are positively resetting the expectations for thl. These transactions leverage our current business, skills and balance sheet. We are making the right steps to be truly global in our platform.”- Rob Campbell, Chairman thl


Truly global - getting there one regular acquisition at a time

[golden city]

Volume is going up. I think Milford is offloading again

[sb9]

Volume is going up. I think Milford is offloading again

There's no way to know that now, as they ceased to be SSH as per notice provided on 13/03/18 when their holding went under 5% threshold. Thus, they don't have to notify the market on any further transactions.

It might very well be them who're selling currently.

[golden city]

I am fascinated about the off market transaction. Who bought it

[sb9]

I am fascinated about the off market transaction. Who bought it

By the way, Milford still have about 6mln odd shares in their holding with their reduced holding under 5% as per their last SSH notice.

[hotshothendo]

Why would you sell just before a div is about to be announced?

[RTM]

By the way, Milford still have about 6mln odd shares in their holding with their reduced holding under 5% as per their last SSH notice.

But how would you really know now they are not required to report as they are less than 5%?

[winner69]

after 6 down days in a row a relief to actually see an up day today

Back to high 600 just as quick as the fall

[Justin]

Top up some today :)

[golden city]

Buyer is comming back Matching all the selling side at 6.06 today and end up rising looking to recover fast

[sb9]

But how would you really know now they are not required to report as they are less than 5%?

I meant they were holding 6mln odd shares at the time of last disclosure.

[winner69]

Buyer is comming back Matching all the selling side at 6.06 today and end up rising looking to recover fast

......buyer hopefully keen eh gc ......getting in cheap before the next step up post next acquisition announcement

[BlackPeter]

Why would you sell just before a div is about to be announced?

Why wouldn't you if you think a stock is fully valued?

Not unusual that "fully valued" stock drops ex dividend more than the value of the latter - and hard for big holders to sell when everybody else its trying to get out as well (liquidity). Maybe the sellers just anticipating a rush to the exit and trying to preempt that?

Obviously - only history will show whether buyers or sellers have been right this time;);

[44wishlists]

Before buying THL, I would rather wait for the FY report, looking to see is the dividend being paid by their earning, or the company have to take more loan, just to keep up with the dividend.

[bull....]

Before buying THL, I would rather wait for the FY report, looking to see is the dividend being paid by their earning, or the company have to take more loan, just to keep up with the dividend.

if i remember correctly thl seems to fall after each report before moving up again

[winner69]

Before buying THL, I would rather wait for the FY report, looking to see is the dividend being paid by their earning, or the company have to take more loan, just to keep up with the dividend.


you're on to it 44wishlists ..... last few years free cash flow hasn’t covered dividends Which sort of says had to increase debt to pay them..... this year free cash might just be enough to cover an increased divie ...otherwise need to borrow a bit more eh


But who cares about debt anyway .... profits are everything and more important than cash flows (though Bezos would disagree and didn't he just become the richest man on the planet)

so 44wishlists .... better not wait ...buy now

[Beagle]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1807/S00520/visitor-levy-could-see-visitors-paying-multiple-times.htm

Not sure where to post this but I suppose it has the most potential to hurt AIR or THL. Interesting that one's trip aboard a boat to see the Milford sound for example apparently already includes a DOC charge. Thing is N.Z. is not cheap and I looked at a decent 6 person motorhome for 10 days ex Queenstown and there's so little change from $4,000 you'd struggle to replenish the gas tank with it.

If they keep adding costs on top it can't help can it ! On the other hand the lower Kiwi does help tourists money go further so perhaps this is the right time to introduce a levy but well worth noting that tourists already pay billions in GST.

Just thinking out loud..I wonder if the tax working group currently doing their whole think tank exercise arrive at the conclusion that GST going up is the real answer to their multi billion dollar question... Could we end up at 20% GST like the U.K. ? What effect on tourism then ?

[Patient Panda]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1807/S00520/visitor-levy-could-see-visitors-paying-multiple-times.htm

Not sure where to post this but I suppose it has the most potential to hurt AIR or THL. Interesting that one's trip aboard a boat to see the Milford sound for example apparently already includes a DOC charge. Thing is N.Z. is not cheap and I looked at a decent 6 person motorhome for 10 days ex Queenstown and there's so little change from $4,000 you'd struggle to replenish the gas tank with it.

If they keep adding costs on top it can't help can it ! On the other hand the lower Kiwi does help tourists money go further so perhaps this is the right time to introduce a levy but well worth noting that tourists already pay billions in GST.

Just thinking out loud..I wonder if the tax working group currently doing their whole think tank exercise arrive at the conclusion that GST going up is the real answer to their multi billion dollar question... Could we end up at 20% GST like the U.K. ? What effect on tourism then ?

even if the double tourist taxation comes to fruition in the most heavy handed form I don’t see it having a materialimpact on AIR at all. It may affect THL in a small way. I think the more pernicious effect is on long term tourism which is much harder to measure and I think that increasing costs to tourists too much relative to what they get in return is a dangerous game.

i agree with you NZ is incredibly expensive!


I’m headed off to Sri Lanka in a couple of months for a month of travel and their tourist pricing gets a lot of hate by tourists. Obviously locals having a much lower income than most of the tourists can only pay a few dollars equivelant in NZD for cultural or historic sites but they charge tourists 10 or 20x this price. It doesn’t overly bother me I can see why they do it, i’m still going to pay up and enjoy but does generate negative talk from many others on blogs, youtube etc..


The Economic effiency of GST is a thing of beauty but it does hit the poor and those on lower incomes disproportionately and incredibly hard so it is tricky.

IIRC Germany has a GST of 19% fairly similar to the UK though their rate on food is only around 7%. The problem with seperate gst rates is you lose one of the main benefits which is the efficiency it generates.

bit of a minefield.

[golden city]

Looks to gain some momentum back

[Yoda]

Yes definitely seems to be a lot of support at the moment. hopefully we have hit the bottom. I bought a few more at 6:10 but will watch it carefully. Hopefully not a dead cat bounce

[causecelebre]

Two bullish reversal candles (dragonfly dojis) on the D1 two days ago.
Rejection off the Ichimoku Senku Span B (Leading Span B) and hidden divergence (RSI and Stoch) from the previous low pivot mid feb
0.618 fib retracement almost to the tick from same pivot.
RSI oversold
Bounce off psychological and S/R @ $6


Continuation of the uptrend

Disc: Already long term holder. Purchased small parcel for my wee son

[golden city]

Up as fast as down

[bull....]

yes very nice

[Patient Panda]

Up as fast as down


This time you’ve picked up an extra happy camper for the long run.
:)

Also GC I admire your commitment to THL that seems well based.

[Beagle]

Yes definitely seems to be a lot of support at the moment. hopefully we have hit the bottom. I bought a few more at 6:10 but will watch it carefully. Hopefully not a dead cat bounce

Still trading well below the 100 day moving average line as is ATM. Nerves being tested for long term shareholders. Both good companies that both probably just got a bit ahead of themselves. Reality bites and its not usually a fun experience although today provided some relief.

[Yoda]

Still trading well below the 100 day moving average line as is ATM. Nerves being tested for long term shareholders. Both good companies that both probably just got a bit ahead of themselves. Reality bites and its not usually a fun experience although today provided some relief.
Yes, it is disconserting to see some of mine going down or flat....ATM. ERD....SKO...TRA...SLM AND THL . It will be an interesting reporting month .
I have gradually sold down ATM and bought more THL.

[bull....]

nice bounce from oversold levels waiting for report now and those increased divs lol

[bull....]

that was a short lived pop

[golden city]

A bit volatiles

[minimoke]

I'm a bit ho hum with a reason for delaying results due to sickness.

[BlackPeter]

A bit volatiles

That's one way to call it. Could well be the beginning of a new trend: Seeing lower lows. EMA 200 next?

[Beagle]

I'm a bit ho hum with a reason for delaying results due to sickness.

Happy to take that one at face value. This flu that's doing the rounds this year, (that am awful lot of people I know have got) speaking from first hand experience, is really tough. It makes it really difficult to count beans properly during the day when you can't sleep at night due to incessant coughing that simply will not stop and goes on for weeks and weeks. I have almost forgotten what it feels like to be well and some of my clients work is definitely going to be late this year.
This dog has almost coughed himself "horse"

[percy]

Instead of a Kiwi fruit first thing in the morning try two.
If that still does not work you know the other cure.!!!!!...lol.

[iceman]

Instead of a Kiwi fruit first thing in the morning try two.
If that still does not work you know the other cure.!!!!!...lol.

Thanks for the support. You should copy paste this onto the silent SEK thread :-)

[Beagle]

Instead of a Kiwi fruit first thing in the morning try two.
If that still does not work you know the other cure.!!!!!...lol.

Unfortunately excessive whisky consumption doesn't help accurately count beans, more likely to lead to creative accounting lol
Times like this I feel sorry for corporate bean counters...annual results have to reported within mandatory timeframe's so they must be under inordinate pressure to get the job done regardless of how sick they are.

[cymonger]

Good couple of days after a difficult month or two here. Hope we're on the comeback trail. Should announce a nice dividend next week and I'm expecting the numbers to be a little better than forecasted based on previous announcements and market conditions this year

[Scooter]

Good couple of days after a difficult month or two here. Hope we're on the comeback trail. Should announce a nice dividend next week and I'm expecting the numbers to be a little better than forecasted based on previous announcements and market conditions this year
ATL.AX come in with strong numbers, and couldn't really see them falling over next year or two

[iceman]

Yes the numbers will be an interesting read, particularly to see if the El Monte business continues performing ahead of expectations. Hopefully normalised NPAT will hit $40M and a final divie of 15c. That would make me very happy :-)

[Patient Panda]

The low kiwi$ is gonna put a bit of rocket fuel in their earnings from US operations too. Tourism here in for another ripper summer, just a couple of months away.

[Scooter]

I think that with the negative comments in the media regarding tourist, and also with a slow down pending, this pushed the shares down to below value. Onwards and upwards to $7 again

[sb9]

I think that with the negative comments in the media regarding tourist, and also with a slow down pending, this pushed the shares down to below value. Onwards and upwards to $7 again

Absolutely, it should at least be $7 very soon.

[bull....]

nice bounce of the $6 support again

[sb9]

Results due out tomorrow, let's see how the numbers stack up.

[King1212]

Good company..but debts are piling up like wood creates....

[minimoke]

A little concerned how SP dipped away at the end of the day. Oh,well. Will just have to wait for tomorrow.

[winner69]

Good company..but debts are piling up like wood creates....


I be looking to see whether free cash flow covers the dividend - hasn't for some time now

Sort of means they borrow to pay the dividend

[Beagle]

It'll be interesting to see if Trump's "extravagant" nature has affected U.S. operations ? Some tax dispute a while ago that was mentioned, forget the nature and quantum, be interesting to see if that's resolved.

[Scooter]

profit $62.4m v $30.2m

[winner69]

Npat normalised $37.4m will be below some of you guys expectations

Free Cash Flow ~$21m (excluding the $9m odd paid for acquisitions etc) — and dividends paid were $22.4m

Borrowings up $23m

Hope the market sees thl as a tech company from here ...and values it accordingly

[couta1]

Very nice result, debt has increased slightly but so has divvy so no worries.

[King1212]

$199 m debts...why they don't use the dividend to pay down the debts? Take the opportunity while the economy n the business are still good?

[winner69]

Like this bit

“Current M&A activity being explored in various parts of the world. Updates will be provided, as appropriate.”

May as well go for broke and become a global behometh

[bull....]

great result again , wonder if there no guidance is to do with uncertain trade wars.

be interesting if it does its usual fall on results

[winner69]

Wonder if this will rattle the market a bit —


This will be offset by the losses incurred with the investment in TH2, which will be circa $15M NZD before tax for thl’s 50% share. This will directly impact the P&L in FY19, but is seen as creating future value for thl.

Need to value thl as a tech company guys

[winner69]

Commentary seems a bit negative on El Mondo ...not performing up to expectations?

[Beagle]

https://www.marketscreener.com/TOURISM-HOLDINGS-LTD-6491392/financials/

Result appears short of average analyst expectations. I am expecting significant analyst downgrades for FY19 and 20.
Could be an interesting day on the NZX for THL.

[winner69]

$199 m debts...why they don't use the dividend to pay down the debts? Take the opportunity while the economy n the business are still good?

Punters would not be happy would they?

[winner69]

Free Cash Flow of ~$21m not much for a company with an Enterprise Value of just under a billion

I do note they put a special footnote on one of the slides aimed at ‘investors’ like me

[Patient Panda]

“We continue to focus on being around 2.0 x debt to EBITDA on a rolling basis”

still a wee way to go

[couta1]

Winner your very gloomy this morning, must be rain on the way, suggested cure would be a nice walk on the beach and a feed of oysters.

[Beagle]

Free Cash Flow of ~$21m not much for a company with an Enterprise Value of just under a billion

I do note they put a special footnote on one of the slides aimed at ‘investors’ like me

One of the reasons for modest cash flow is they're struggling with sales of used vehicles exiting their fleet. see page 13 http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/322893/285512.pdf Also struggling with used vehicles exiting their fleet in the states. This cuts to the core of their business, buy well, rent well and sell well...undermine the last part of this equation you undermine the whole investment thesis.
This is hardly surprising seeing as we have such low business confidence. (I think its mostly business people who are in the position to buy an ex rental RV which lets face it is an entirely discretionary purchase). 100 vehicle shortfall doesn't sound like a lot but its perhaps close to $10m cash not coming in the door. Add that to the shortfall in ex rental sales in the US, (not disclosed ?), and this is a pretty sizeable issue.

$24.3m gain on Th2 investment is nothing more that creative accounting.

Still...Rob reckons their new target when they set it will be heaps more than $50m...so who knows...

[Patient Panda]

No matter the mood its always a great time for oysters.

beagle not sure its a business confidence issue as both US and NZ having the same issue of low sales and US ostensibly very happy business wise.

Leftover NZ sales mainly due to the large purchase of vehicles from Jucy which has caused a backlog, unless theres something I missed.

anyone know why road bear has such drastically better ROFE?

[Patient Panda]

Look at that ROFE for the tourism business of 49%, a thing of beauty. Wish they could scale it up a bit. Essentially 50c profit per dollar of assets regardless if its debt or equity funded. Incredible.

[Beagle]

Market underwhelmed and in the process of smacking it. Not surprised. Market dislikes creative accounting gains and ignores them and so do I.

[King1212]

Crap..no buyers:eek2:

[Yoda]

Is the market a bit over reacting ?

[couta1]

Is the market a bit over reacting ? The nature of the market, in years gone by I would have sold for a loss myself this morning.

[King1212]

Market does not like the debts..especially with the trade wars on the way...what I see only companies with no debts or low debts will do good a head...

[bull....]

Is the market a bit over reacting ?

it has a history of falling on results announcements

[Beagle]

I think there is more to it than that.
THL has a history of upgrading guidance during the year, often several times.
• Previous guidance for FY18 was in the range of $36M-$39M. This has been updated to $36M-$40M before non-recurring items.

This is what was said 6 months ago. Fact is that the result is at the bottom half of guidance issued 6 months ago which is unusual for this company which has a history of upgrading and then beating the upgrade.
It also fell short of average analyst expectations. Debt is up significantly and there is considerable uncertainty on the trade war front.

I think the fall so far is a rational response.

[winner69]

Winner your very gloomy this morning, must be rain on the way, suggested cure would be a nice walk on the beach and a feed of oysters.

Yep ...it’s started to rain, just as I was going to go out

Your weather forecasting better than stock picking .......no way it’s just a fluke you got the weather right this morning

[winner69]

I think there is more to it than that.
THL has a history of upgrading guidance during the year, often several times.
• Previous guidance for FY18 was in the range of $36M-$39M. This has been updated to $36M-$40M before non-recurring items.

This is what was said 6 months ago. Fact is that the result is at the bottom half of guidance issued 6 months ago which is unusual for this company which has a history of upgrading and then beating the upgrade.
It also fell short of average analyst expectations. Debt is up significantly and there is considerable uncertainty on the trade war front.

I think the fall so far is a rational response.

Sucked punters (and guru analysts) in with that upgrade 6 months ago eh

Midpoint would have read better than in bottom of range

[winner69]

Medium to long term chart still looks OK ...doesn’t it?

TA overrides FA with this stock

[Beagle]

Sucked punters (and guru analysts) in with that upgrade 6 months ago eh

Midpoint would have read better than in bottom of range

Market clearly wanted $42-44m and is disappointed.

[winner69]

Shareprice hasn’t fallen that much this morning

Still hanging around the 6 buck mark

[minimoke]

A little concerned how SP dipped away at the end of the day. Oh,well. Will just have to wait for tomorrow.
How strange. Market down 4% on news. Surely someone didn't get a whiff of it early?

[couta1]

HaHa this enforced trading break will give the panic merchants a bit of time to smell the roses.Lol.

[Beagle]

HaHa this enforced trading break will give the panic merchants a bit of time to smell the roses.Lol.

and the rest of us some inclination to do some real work lol

[minimoke]

HaHa this enforced trading break will give the panic merchants a bit of time to smell the roses.Lol.So where's the update. Cant find anything on NZX website. Nothing in the Business section of stuff. In the mean time our stock market has ground to a halt at 11.15am. What if I had wanted to trade my THL for SML shares. Ozzies are driving that price up. I smell a compo claim coming on.

[Scrunch]

Market clearly wanted $42-44m and is disappointed.

If the market wanted that now, What was it expecting when the share price was nearing $7 a couple of months ago?

[Beagle]

If the market wanted that now, What was it expecting when the share price was nearing $7 a couple of months ago?

The same, reality takes a while to bite and people talk. Truth is the company is talking things down for FY19 saying profit will be lower. Is the market convinced this all new razzle dazzle Th2 that this year they're investing hard cash into of about $15m (rather than some stroke of accountants pen to date) will deliver the goods long term ?

[couta1]

and the rest of us some inclination to do some real work lol Actually no I have no inclination to do some real work but will be forced to the rest of the week due to the hardship of heading to Q/town for 2 weeks skiing next Monday.

[Beagle]

Actually no I have no inclination to do some real work but will be forced to the rest of the week due to the hardship of heading to Q/town for 2 weeks skiing next Monday.

Life is "harsh" isn't it mate :) I know some overworked bean counter that can only take 5 days off but its better than nothing !

[sb9]

Will be an interesting ASM to look forward to come October.

[winner69]

H118 profits were stunning - up 102% on pcp

Second half profits DOWN 22% on pcp (not counting that one big off)

[Beagle]

H118 profits were stunning - up 102% on pcp

Second half profits DOWN 22% on pcp (not counting that one big off)

Ouch, that is awful. Shares have been in a nice uptrend for quite some time and nicely above 100 day MA for ages...but that's now been breeched and company is forewarning of lower profits for FY19.

Correction from ~ $6.85 in early July all done and dusted yet ? You folks be the judge.
By the way....I brought up the chart today. There was a very clear head and shoulders a little while ago, seldom have I seen a clearer head and shoulders image. The warning signs were there for those into TA. Surprised nobody on here mentioned it before ?

[peat]

a very clear head and shoulders . The warning signs were there for those into TA. Surprised nobody on here mentioned it before ?

True dat!
Its a little lopsided - symmetry is good. But yeh a H&S by most counts. well spotted.
And its even clearly broken the neckline with a 3.5% fall today.
So that implies it could fall to $5.00 ish

[janner]

Ouch, that is awful The warning signs were there for those into TA. Surprised nobody on here mentioned it before ?

Always have thought of you as being a non TA man Rog. .. One can change :-)))

Which leaves me as always....... ???? :-))))))))))

CONFUSED..

[minimoke]

True dat!
Its a little lopsided - symmetry is good. But yeh a H&S by most counts. well spotted.
And its even clearly broken the neckline with a 3.5% fall today.
So that implies it could fall to $5.00 ish
You cant draw any conclusion on share drop for an hours trading. It was starting to come off an open low of 4% drop. Lets see if NZX gives market the benefit of a full day trading today

[Beagle]

So that implies it could fall to $5.00 ish
Yes...good company but that's how I see the risk too.


Always have thought of you as being a non TA man Rog. .. One can change :-)))

Which leaves me as always....... ???? :-))))))))))

CONFUSED..
Yes a bean counter is always going to be a numbers man at heart so FA rules the roost as far as I'm concerned but I have learned that TA is a very valuable tool too.
All the proof you need that old dogs can learn new tricks :)

[hotshothendo]

For those of us learning the ropes, what's FA and TA

[Dorkus]

FA= Fundamental Analysis - The underlying things that make a company worth a certain value.
TA= Technical Analysis - Using the chart to predict the future value of the company. TA assumes the market (and therefore the chart) knows everything about the fundamentals.

[Justin]

Seem like those who dislike the results cash up and gone, who still in journey with me :confused:

[minimoke]

Seem like those who dislike the results cash up and gone, who still in journey with me :confused:I'm still in. Still holding an overall 21% gain this year (and much more in my Portfolio One holding). Nearing my stop loss - but not close enough yet to get me worried.

[RTM]

Seem like those who dislike the results cash up and gone, who still in journey with me :confused:

I'm not good at selling. Still in, pleased with the dividend, especially on my average buy of 3.85.
Interesting times ahead tho. Hope they have got it right and their top guys are devoting enough of their time to THL. Suspect their foray into the USA will be demanding.

[sb9]

I'm not good at selling. Still in, pleased with the dividend, especially on my average buy of 3.85.
Interesting times ahead tho. Hope they have got it right and their top guys are devoting enough of their time to THL. Suspect their foray into the USA will be demanding.

Same here, don't see any reason to sell now. Still think there's an upside surprise come ASM time in October.

In the meantime, Milford might be selling their remaining stake, therefore creating some weakness in the short term. Just a guess though...

[Dorkus]

I just got out... Noting my post in ATM thread, I am liquidating my portfolio to pay down my mortgage and I am not comfortable holding THL noting I have to get out at some point in the next few months.

I bought at $114 so happy to be out at @$579 :)

[iceman]

Same here, don't see any reason to sell now. Still think there's an upside surprise come ASM time in October.

In the meantime, Milford might be selling their remaining stake, therefore creating some weakness in the short term. Just a guess though...

I'm with you sb9. No reason to sell this one and look forward to exciting times ahead wit this company

[winner69]

Same here, don't see any reason to sell now. Still think there's an upside surprise come ASM time in October.

In the meantime, Milford might be selling their remaining stake, therefore creating some weakness in the short term. Just a guess though...

Is totally over priced at the moment based on current and expected performance but impending acquisitions will keep the excitment up

Just imagine a big(ish) meaningful acquisition and a new profit target of $80m .....that would get the adrenalin going and a share price close to 10 bucks

A decent acquisition might mean a capital raise but punters won’t mind,

[sb9]

Is totally over priced at the momemt but impending acquisitions will keep the excitment up

Just imagine a big(ish) meaningful acquisition and a new profit target of $80m .....that would get the adrenalin going and a share price close to 10 bucks

A decent acquisition might mean a capital raise but punters won’t mind,

That's my pick too, they might do a capital raise if the acquisition is rather large and at the same time tackle the rising debt levels as well.


I'm with you sb9. No reason to sell this one and look forward to exciting times ahead wit this company

100% agree, wonder where our original cheerleader golden city is these days.

[tzbang]

I'm not good at selling. Still in, pleased with the dividend, especially on my average buy of 3.85.
Interesting times ahead tho. Hope they have got it right and their top guys are devoting enough of their time to THL. Suspect their foray into the USA will be demanding.

Every time I've followed a share foray into the USA it's been hard going. I decided to take profits from this one at 5.80

[minimoke]

A decent acquisition might mean a capital raise but punters won’t mind,I'd prefer they keep some of the dividend (get a bit nervous when I see dividend equally increased borrowing)

[golden city]

I am happily doing lots things in asx. For thl. There is risk and rewards at current but I am a believer of the management. If they operate th2 sucessfully .Th2 alone could be worth a billion dollar company but not without risk with burning cash. And antisipating new acqusition comming with new goal set. Could be another game change. Thl is not just a rv company anymore with low pe It has the th2 potential so pe should look differently.

[winner69]

I am happily doing lots things in asx. For thl. There is risk and rewards at current but I am a believer of the management. If they operate th2 sucessfully .Th2 alone could be worth a billion dollar company but not without risk with burning cash. And antisipating new acqusition comming with new goal set. Could be another game change. Thl is not just a rv company anymore with low pe It has the th2 potential so pe should look differently.

Yep .....will one day be viewed and valued as a tech company (hopefully)

[golden city]

To be honest I made too much money in a single stock.

[44wishlists]

Yep .....will one day be viewed and valued as a tech company (hopefully)

Totally agreed. For holder who is deciding to hold on or ditch the boat, maybe a good question to ask yourself is THL is tech company? IMO, a large part of its current price is viewed and valued as it is one.

[Oliver Mander]

Is totally over priced at the moment based on current and expected performance but impending acquisitions will keep the excitment up

Just imagine a big(ish) meaningful acquisition and a new profit target of $80m .....that would get the adrenalin going and a share price close to 10 bucks

A decent acquisition might mean a capital raise but punters won’t mind,

I'm not sure about 'over-priced' - still growing well on an underlying basis, trading at a current P/E today of 19.1. Even 12 month PE is still only 15 - implying that growth rate is still higher than PE.
Having said that, I think they are a pretty ordinary set of results;
1) I don't recall any earlier signal at the time of setting up th2 that there would be a massive slug of further capex going into it. Is probably obvious that's required in retrospect.
2) As Beagle said, dressing up a poor 2H with a one-off 'revaluation' gain is pretty crap. Maybe the market doesn't recognise value (arrogant to say), but maybe they just overpaid (much more likely). In which case its not unrealised income, its poor use of capital.
3) The cashflow figures are indeed concerning - if they really need cash to fund a new digital business stream, would rather they stopped the divvy rather than borrowed more.
4) Its all very well to say that th2 is a good investment - but there is an argument to say its quite a long way removed from its current operations. I originally invested in a tourism company. If I wanted a tech company, I'd have invested in one of those.

For now, I'll hang on to my position - still believe its a good business with solid underlying growth. I'm likely to rebalance to reflect a different risk profile at one point though. But I'm fairly unhappy with the tone of this particular result - there's a lot of arrogance creeping into the language, and that always makes me nervous. Not to mention that there is clearly a cashflow issue - growing pains maybe, but to have that at the same time as establishing a brand-new business that needs heavy investment is tricky. my own fault - should have foreseen the cashflow risk earlier. but perhaps THL's exec team should have done the same...??

With an increased risk profile, likely that there will be higher expectations of future returns. That will act as a brake on the SP for at least the next year imho (altho may be impacted by any forecast / trading updates at ASM).

[Beagle]

I'm not sure about 'over-priced' - still growing well on an underlying basis, trading at a current P/E today of 19.1. Even 12 month PE is still only 15 - implying that growth rate is still higher than PE.
Having said that, I think they are a pretty ordinary set of results;
1) I don't recall any earlier signal at the time of setting up th2 that there would be a massive slug of further capex going into it. Is probably obvious that's required in retrospect.
2) As Beagle said, dressing up a poor 2H with a one-off 'revaluation' gain is pretty crap. Maybe the market doesn't recognise value (arrogant to say), but maybe they just overpaid (much more likely). In which case its not unrealised income, its poor use of capital.
3) The cashflow figures are indeed concerning - if they really need cash to fund a new digital business stream, would rather they stopped the divvy rather than borrowed more.
4) Its all very well to say that th2 is a good investment - but there is an argument to say its quite a long way removed from its current operations. I originally invested in a tourism company. If I wanted a tech company, I'd have invested in one of those.

For now, I'll hang on to my position - still believe its a good business with solid underlying growth. I'm likely to rebalance to reflect a different risk profile at one point though. But I'm fairly unhappy with the tone of this particular result - there's a lot of arrogance creeping into the language, and that always makes me nervous. Not to mention that there is clearly a cashflow issue - growing pains maybe, but to have that at the same time as establishing a brand-new business that needs heavy investment is tricky. my own fault - should have foreseen the cashflow risk earlier. but perhaps THL's exec team should have done the same...??

With an increased risk profile, likely that there will be higher expectations of future returns. That will act as a brake on the SP for at least the next year imho (altho may be impacted by any forecast / trading updates at ASM).

Good honest post. What raised my eyebrow was the language around the new revised long term profit goal. It did seem a bit OTT and at odds with their previous understated matter of fact style. Suppose some would say that's just the way tech companies are...the more growth you're projecting the more arrogant one becomes until....eventually... one becomes Elon Musk lol

I think a lot of people invested in a New Zealand tourism company a while back and the company is becoming something else... Some will relish the next stage of the journey going global as they put it despite the lower projected profit in FY19, others will look for something closer to home.

[Patient Panda]

Every time I've followed a share foray into the USA it's been hard going. I decided to take profits from this one at 5.80


To be fair THL has been in the USA for a while with Roadbear which has been doing very well and now El Monte doesn’t look to be doing too badly.

THL certainly not being valued as a tech company at present if it was its PE would be 30+ with almost double its current shareprice. Once its up and running THLs tech way more valuable than Pushpay to say the least.


I imagine THL has had a bit’ve a rough time with their CFO being sick for so long and all the extra work and pressure that gets displaced onto others as a result but many of you might be in for a pleasant surprise come the ASM in October. I also would not be surprised at all to see an acquisition announced very soon and probably a capital raise to go with it.

[Oliver Mander]

Good honest post. What raised my eyebrow was the language around the new revised long term profit goal. It did seem a bit OTT and at odds with their previous understated matter of fact style. Suppose some would say that's just the way tech companies are...the more growth you're projecting the more arrogant one becomes until....eventually... one becomes Elon Musk lol

I think a lot of people invested in a New Zealand tourism company a while back and the company is becoming something else... Some will relish the next stage of the journey going global as they put it despite the lower projected profit in FY19, others will look for something closer to home.

I actually like the fact that they are a mini-multinational. That for me was a plus. I just also like that their sector is (was?) 'tourism'. I have enough tech stocks elsewhere...
And I agree with you on the language for FY19. Very odd.

[Scrunch]

Strange day of trading today. I guess Mr market is trying to figure out where to price this stock. Opened close to yesterdays close of $5.93. Sank down to $5.70 then recovered to close up 7c at $6.00. 5% difference between the low and high of the day.

[Justin]

And big volume traded today closed to 6

[golden city]

We could be close to a acqusition announcement or somebody knows more. Another reason could be citic China topping up

[iceman]

We could be close to a acqusition announcement or somebody knows more. Another reason could be citic China topping up

Its pretty clear from the Annual Report that they already have something in the pipeline so yes I think we will see an acquisition announcement very soon, no later than the AGM in October

[winner69]

I'm not sure about 'over-priced' - still growing well on an underlying basis, trading at a current P/E today of 19.1. Even 12 month PE is still only 15 - implying that growth rate is still higher than PE.

Yes growth higher than PE

But if a lot of that growth has come from acquisitions does that imply that further acquisitions are needed to support current share price? ....is a future acquisition largely built in to $6?

[winner69]

Interesting viewpoint Sylvester - from your post — But I'm fairly unhappy with the tone of this particular result - there's a lot of arrogance creeping into the language, and that always makes me nervous

[Oliver Mander]

QUOTE=winner69;727148]Interesting viewpoint Sylvester - from your post — But I'm fairly unhappy with the tone of this particular result - there's a lot of arrogance creeping into the language, and that always makes me nervous[/QUOTE]

Only my view of course. Its a marked change in tone from previous public announcements. Not quite at the 'Scott Bradley' level (see PLX), but certainly an element of FBU :-)! Essentially, "Trust us, we're investing the profit from the good business into a technology punt".

Note that I hold (its varied between my largest to 3rd largest over the last year) and continue to do so. I've simply re-rated the risk associated with it, and am on the hunt for for a pure tourism stock (preferably multinational) to add into my portfolio.

[Justin]

current p/e today only 11.3

[winner69]

current p/e today only 11.3


More like 19 ...there was a big one off adjustment in that latest result

And a hint next years profit will be down

[Beagle]

More like 19 ...there was a big one off adjustment in that latest result

And a hint next years profit will be down

No hint, it was made crystal clear that this year's profit won't be repeated in FY19 but all good because our man Rob is dreaming up a new target and he has heaps of credibility. But he is looking portly and old these days...

[couta1]

Time for me to get the Blood Mop out for this one.Lol.

[Beagle]

Time for me to get the Blood Mop out for this one.Lol.

TA - I wouldn't be in a hurry mate. Bring up the chart for the last 6 months and have a really good look. From a TA perspective, clear head and shoulders and now the SP is breaking the neckline. Most likely it appears to be headed lower.
FA Fundamentally the company has confirmed lower profits for FY19. There is no clear indication from the company at this stage when th2 might add to profits...this could be quite some time before the company derives some benefit from their investment in this area.
Sentiment - The market has had more than sufficient time to digest the annual result and outlook commentary and is quite clearly underwhelmed.

[couta1]

Hmm looks like a low volume retail fish sell down to me.PS-Starting to look oversold on all indicators at these levels.

[peat]

Hmm looks like a low volume retail fish sell down to me.

up until the last few days that was correct


9889

[winner69]

up until the last few days that was correct


9889

That volume line looks ominious ....so OBV will be heading down