THL - Tourism Holdings

[Arbroath]

Yep and the thing is the only judge is time. Also if you buy something else that does better its all a moot point.

[iceman]

[QUOTE=BlackPeter;736079]

Market is just finding a way to price these additional risks in. No reason to attack people as cave dwellers who mention them ...[/QUOTE)

Fair enough BP. I did not intend to offend or attack anyone with my earlier robust comments and apologise if offense was taken. I enjoy and encourage differences of opinion, which is the sole reason for coming onto this site.

Tourism businesses are moving very fast towards more accessability through technology and apps. I can give an example of an adventure tourism business I'm involved in. Only 5 years ago around 50% of our customers walked in of the street. This year it is about 5-10%, rest all pre-booked, mainly through website and app.
I'm glad THL has seen the opportunity this generational change offers and is trying to take advantage of it. I feel there would have been more risk in standing still for THL.

[simla]

I think the doubt is about general conditions, whether expansion as an RV operation is going to work well given a world generally sagging at the knees on the optics, and whether big funds will amplify any such doubt on the share price. th2 is not that big a deal on the finances to my mind and is unlikely to be the reason for such a movement in share price though obviously it is having some effect, just coincidental timing mainly in my opinion.

And obviously nobody can know whether the world mood will affect the tourism industry up or down or over what time scale, or whether the RV might even be countercyclical. Or maybe the electric RVs will be a market winner, or th2 open a big door. Or not. Who knows. The only actual hard data we have is that people are nervous. That isn't much to go on.

But that's just one of those market opportunities that arise from time to time, when opinion diverges. Is the market right or wrong? If wrong, then it's a chance for bold investors. It's a case of deliberately taking the chance or not. I've bought some, mainly because I think these guys are very smart operators who will survive as well as anyone could, but on the understanding that that might not prove later to be the right move. I haven't gone way out on a limb over it.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a63fb190/tourism-needs-plan-in-case-climate-change-kills-air-travel.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Tourism%20needs%20plan%20in%20case%20 climate%20change%20kills%20air%20travel&utm_content=Tourism%20needs%20plan%20in%20case%20c limate%20change%20kills%20air%20travel+CID_b9caec8 cef49b21fcc1e98806e1ad80f&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlea63fb190touris m-needs-plan-in-case-climate-change-kills-air-travelhtml

[minimoke]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a63fb190/tourism-needs-plan-in-case-climate-change-kills-air-travel.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Tourism%20needs%20plan%20in%20case%20 climate%20change%20kills%20air%20travel&utm_content=Tourism%20needs%20plan%20in%20case%20c limate%20change%20kills%20air%20travel+CID_b9caec8 cef49b21fcc1e98806e1ad80f&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlea63fb190touris m-needs-plan-in-case-climate-change-kills-air-travelhtmlblah blah blah climate change blah blah blah woe woe woe blah blah. in the short / medium term greater risk of tourist being turned off air travel due to dodgy engines or some Mad Mullah.

[couta1]

blah blah blah climate change blah blah blah woe woe woe blah blah. in the short / medium term greater risk of tourist being turned off air travel due to dodgy engines or some Mad Mullah.Yep more PC dribble, climate has always changed and always will, the wheels of the bus go round and round.Lol

[Beagle]

blah blah blah climate change blah blah blah woe woe woe blah blah. in the short / medium term greater risk of tourist being turned off air travel due to dodgy engines or some Mad Mullah.

Airlines use vast amounts of jet fuel. At some stage in the future my sense is there is a genuine possibility we will get a really serious oil shock and fuel prices will go dramatically north, perhaps at a rate and to a level the likes of which are unprecedented. Regardless of climate change or lack thereof that's when we'll get a serious downturn in tourism, perhaps really serious.

[Baa_Baa]

Airlines use vast amounts of jet fuel. At some stage in the future my sense is there is a genuine possibility we will get a really serious oil shock and fuel prices will go dramatically north, perhaps at a rate and to a level the likes of which are unprecedented. Regardless of climate change or lack thereof that's when we'll get a serious downturn in tourism, perhaps really serious.

Why do you say that? The whole world would grind to a stop if that happened. The Oil producers are not stupid enough to cut off their noses, they might go for maximum pain but that strategy always has a salvation clause that they can implement at whim - modify production, manage price. Same old same old, it's been going on for a long time.

[minimoke]

Airlines use vast amounts of jet fuel. .Oil reserves are a totally different conversation from climate change. In a 2013 Annual Report BP reckons theres enough crude to last o 2088. The US Energy Information Administration reckons 2050 but "
Over time, global reserves will likely increase as new technologies increase production at existing fields and as new projects are developed."

Provided the world doesnt turn like our woolly headed PM and stop exploration our shares in THL should be good for a few years yet.

[Beagle]

Why do you say that? The whole world would grind to a stop if that happened. The Oil producers are not stupid enough to cut off their noses, they might go for maximum pain but that strategy always has a salvation clause that they can implement at whim - modify production, manage price. Same old same old, it's been going on for a long time.
Peak oil is more than just a theory and demand is growing inexorably. Most experts I have listened too on CNBC believe the supply demand situation is tighter now that at any point in recent years. One major exogenous shock or geopolitical event is all it would take at this point to see oil rise dramatically. Long term I think there are legitimate concerns as to whether producers can produce enough to meet demand with oil at reasonably affordable prices. Time will tell.

[minimoke]

Peak oil is more than just a theory and demand is growing inexorably. Most experts I have listened too on CNBC believe the supply demand situation is tighter now that at any point in recent years. One major exogenous shock or geopolitical event is all it would take at this point to see oil rise dramatically. Long term I think there are legitimate concerns as to whether producers can produce enough to meet demand with oil at reasonably affordable prices. Time will tell.
In which case tourist holidays will be the least of our worries.

[simla]

I just talked to the young gardener who works here a few hours a month, and who is a very keen environmentalist, and he said he and his generation would far rather drive around independently than hit the motel/hotel trail.

[minimoke]

I just talked to the young gardener who works here a few hours a month, and who is a very keen environmentalist, and he said he and his generation would far rather drive around independently than hit the motel/hotel trail.Sounds like what most generations want to do when they are young.

[simla]

I'm sure you're right. Merely pointing out the current generation of customers do not seem likely to disappear in a hurry.

[Sideshow Bob]

Sounds like what most generations want to do when they are young.

Exactly - the old VW Kombi around Europe or backpacking wherever. Certainly could never afford or even contemplate a hotel when I was backpacking (apart from in real cheap countries). Doing this, also have more time 'travelling' rather than a middle aged person on 'holiday' so different time frames and pressures.

Although in NZ would have to do the maths on campervan/park fees etc vs rental car and motel....

[Beagle]

Got to respect technical analysis at times like this. The market is telling people that SUM thing is wrong and its by no means the only chart that is ugly, SUM others are too !
Much safer for risk averse investors to wait till these quality companies (that arguably simply got too far ahead of themselves with their share prices) to break back up through the 100 day MA before considering investing again.

[winner69]

Now $4.64 and heading to sub $4.20

Not surprising really ...it’s all in the free cash flows

Was this really $6.89 not that long ago .....40% is some crash .....must have a high degree of irrationality back then ....even 10 bucks was mentioned as a possibility.

[iceman]

Winner that promised takeover must be coming soon 😀

[iceman]

2000 shares just traded at 410c. Seems a bit odd with several buyers higher than that, or did those bids come in later !?

[Filthy]

2000 shares just traded at 410c. Seems a bit odd with several buyers higher than that, or did those bids come in later !?

think you answered your own question there mate ;)

[Beagle]

2000 shares just traded at 410c. Seems a bit odd with several buyers higher than that, or did those bids come in later !?

Looks like the NZX reversed that trade as $4.10 doesn't show as the low for the day any more. More disturbingly though what I see here is a breakdown in the belief factor. The company recently held its annual meeting and had a fulsome chance to clearly articulate its strategy going forward and the buying support simply isn't there. A clear downtrend so I am not interested until that's clearly finished. It has had a great run while it was predominantly a N.Z. tourism stock...this company is a very different kettle of fish than what it was a few years ago and I suspect not everyone is in agreement with where the directors want to take it going forward. Sale of N.Z. tourism business's ???? I really scratch my head to understand why they would want to abandon core business's that have performed so well over the years to throw money into tech apps with highly questionable return on investment going forward ? Has Rob Campbell bitten off more than he can chew at his age ?

[iceman]

Yes you are right Beagle. The market clearly is not liking the lack of direction or clarity. Fair enough. At this stage I'm happy to stay in with my remaining 40% of what I held at start of year.

[Arbroath]

Mine are free-carried including the ones I bought recently around $5.10 after the multi-year trend higher but still don't like the price action lately....the market in general is getting quick panicky. Could be approaching the time to sell low-beta property stocks and buy some of the beaten up stocks but then again the property stocks pay such reliable high dividends.


Yes you are right Beagle. The market clearly is not liking the lack of direction or clarity. Fair enough. At this stage I'm happy to stay in with my remaining 40% of what I held at start of year.

[Leftfield]

No THL in my portfolio after today.....took my gains and stuck to my adage not to hold shares in a 'downtrend'. Shame as I enjoyed THL.... GLH.

[RupertBear]

No THL in my portfolio after today.....took my gains and stuck to my adage not to hold shares in a 'downtrend'. Shame as I enjoyed THL.... GLH.

I also bailed a few days ago at $5.00, shame as I liked THL as well.

[BlackPeter]

Mine are free-carried including the ones I bought recently around $5.10 after the multi-year trend higher but still don't like the price action lately....the market in general is getting quick panicky. Could be approaching the time to sell low-beta property stocks and buy some of the beaten up stocks but then again the property stocks pay such reliable high dividends.

and actually - the property stocks are in an uptrend (as compared to nearly everything else) E.g. ARG as well as CDI (both in my protfolio) gained yesterday Never sell a winning stock!

[winner69]

Winner that promised takeover must be coming soon ��

I beginning to think that the market is telling us that any worthwhile acquisition (one that’ll make a real difference) will require a decent capital raising

[Beagle]

and actually - the property stocks are in an uptrend (as compared to nearly everything else) E.g. ARG as well as CDI (both in my protfolio) gained yesterday Never sell a winning stock!

Yes I have been adding to my already significant holding in ARG. Safe value stock at a meaningful discount to NTA and very safe yield. Very good place to hide in this highly volatile market. On the other hand THL has effectively been paying dividends with rising debt level's, (with thanks to Winner69 for pointing this out).

[iceman]

I beginning to think that the market is telling us that any worthwhile acquisition (one that’ll make a real difference) will require a decent capital raising

I meant the takeover from the Chinese that Golden City suggested some time back would happen if it dropped too far :-) By the way, GC seems to have disappeared of late.

[golden city]

I am back guys. I have 100% confidence in thl management. Still committing Just patiently taking the dividends. Stock can be up and down. But over all it is a good stock to own. I am sure the citic group will be keeping an eye on the stock price Citic group doesn’t like owning a piece of the company. Normally they will takeover any company they invested

[sb9]

I am back guys. I have 100% confidence in thl management. Still committing Just patiently taking the dividends. Stock can be up and down. But over all it is a good stock to own. I am sure the citic group will be keeping an eye on the stock price Citic group doesn’t like owning a piece of the company. Normally they will takeover any company they invested

Volume transacted today (937k) and 681k y’day gives you bit of insight that someone might be using current price weakness to accumulate big. May be it’s Citic that’s scooping up the shares?

[hotshothendo]

I see those high volumes on one website but on F and B site it shows much lower volumes. Which one is correct? I'm fairly new at this!

[iceman]

I see those high volumes on one website but on F and B site it shows much lower volumes. Which one is correct? I'm fairly new at this!

Welcome to the forum. Not sure what "F and B" is, but easy to see volumes on the NZX website. I use ANZ Securities and it seems to match NZX.

[hotshothendo]

Forsyth and barr

[iceman]

Forsyth and barr

That explains it. I avoid reading anything from them

[Scrunch]

That explains it. I avoid reading anything from them

Do F and B metrics include off-market trades? If they didn't it would cause their totals to frequently be lower than the ANZ securities total.
On ANZ Securities you can see the last 15 trades. For off-market trades the cond[itions] field is populated with the code SP.

[sb9]

I think they got a very good candidate for the role, especially seeing what they've plans for future.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/327761

TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED (thl)
Appointment of Chief Financial Officer
Tourism Holdings Limited (thl) announces the appointment of Jennifer Bunbury (Martin) to the role of Chief Financial Officer, effective 14 January 2019.
Jen has been a Director in the investment banking team at Deutsche Craigs since 2010. During that time Jen has been involved in a large number of M&A, equity capital market and strategic advisory assignments for a diverse range of New Zealand and international corporate clients.
Recently thl promoted Steven Hall to the newly formed role of General Manager Finance, expanding his responsibilities to include the broader financial accountability for the New Zealand and Australian operating businesses. Jen will work closely with Steven on the core financial responsibilities of the business, whilst adding significant capability to the business from an M&A, investor relations and strategy perspective.
Jen is currently a member of the Institute of Directors and was a recent participant in the Future Director programme, on the Board of Scales Corporation.

[simla]

The electric RVs were on Seven Sharp tonight. They looked pretty good, and the program was pretty upbeat about them too. But they do tell people to follow a chosen itinerary chosen by charging points as the safe range was said to be 120k, I think. So they suggested an enjoyable more leisurely holiday as the point at this stage. Easy to do around Coromandel, for instance. Or that's what I heard anyway.

Looked good in all honesty. Quite an achievement. So far they have built 10 to test this summer and they clearly thought they were on a winner with them.

[Yoda]

From what i can make out , the 30 v 60 MA IS CLOSING AND THE BOLLI BANDS ARE QUITE TIGHT. Things might be turning ?

[mondograss]

Finally closed above that $5 resistance which is encouraging.

[winner69]

From what i can make out , the 30 v 60 MA IS CLOSING AND THE BOLLI BANDS ARE QUITE TIGHT. Things might be turning ?

and a close above 5 bucks is good .... a break out on the cards ...550 and then 600 again

those acquisitions (or being taken over) must be close ...they've teased us too long

[Yoda]

and a close above 5 bucks is good .... a break out on the cards ...550 and then 600 again

those acquisitions (or being taken over) must be close ...they've teased us too long
We are more or less where we were Dec 18 week 1......
then came a nice jump.
i had bought some in July at 6.10 but soon sold everything at 5.9 on the way down .
looking to buy in again, but happy to have made 30 % so far. It does look promising .

[Leftfield]

We are more or less where we were Dec 18 week 1......
then came a nice jump.
i had bought some in July at 6.10 but soon sold everything at 5.9 on the way down .
looking to buy in again, but happy to have made 30 % so far. It does look promising .

I did well out of THL and like the company, but no longer hold. To my mind the TA is not looking great as it is into 'death cross' territory with a base support level at $5.00

10269

It's going to need some positive news or Winners 'acquisition' to reignite the SP IMHO. When that happens I'll be back in.

[winner69]

I did well out of THL and like the company, but no longer hold. To my mind the TA is not looking great as it is into 'death cross' territory with a base support level at $5.00

10269

It's going to need some positive news or Winners 'acquisition' to reignite the SP IMHO. When that happens I'll be back in.

That high gives us hope

Been there before so not new territory / blue sky stuff eh

[winner69]

It's going to need some positive news or Winners 'acquisition' to reignite the SP IMHO. When that happens I'll be back in.

It’s been some time since thl started teasing us about the global expansion plans and that they’ll give us a new earnings target for 2020 ‘significantly higher’ than $50m (the last target they have given)

As time passes maybe that was all ‘big hat, no cattle’ as they say in Texas. Just teasing us eh

Without these global acquisitions to drive growth thl is only worth $4.00/$4.50 at best

Maybe they themselves being taken over is actually now the best outcome for shareholders

[golden city]

Some kind of positive news is imminent I think Upward trend activate

[minimoke]

Some kind of positive news is imminent I think Upward trend activateMay have to wait to 26 Feb. I dont mind as long as the SP continues its upwards growth.

[winner69]

Maybe Air New Zealand saying “Markets showing signs of slower growth include leisure travel within domestic New Zealand and softening inbound tourism traffic.” could also apply to thl

AIR announcement sort of implies leisure travel globally not as buoyant as last few years

Maybe that’s why share price down today

[winner69]

Net migration is falling and the government want it to fall faster.

This is an interesting insight from my mate Rodney -

“It probably isn't a coincidence that net tourism and net migration have started to fall at roughly the same time much as occurred after the previous booms in the first half of the 2000s. It seems that around the same time the permanent net flow of people turns up or down the temporary flow driven mainly by tourists does the same. As covered in our housing and building reports there are good reasons for expecting further sizeable downside in net migration. By implication that implies that net tourism will probably fall further ......”

http://www.sra.co.nz/pdf/TourismThreatOct17.pdf

Maybe the signs were there

[simla]

Hmm, but then thl is not just NZ. Obviously the world confidence levels affect tourism though, and they are seriously hard to read presently.

However, the TH2 digital platform just got a new CEO from high up in expedia (which also owns trivago). http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/329929/294189.pdf

Your posts on thl seem variously up or down, Winner. I don't really understand? Are you just nervous that they are a good company but in a market that requires the good times to keep going?

[winner69]

Hmm, but then thl is not just NZ. Obviously the world confidence levels affect tourism though, and they are seriously hard to read presently.

However, the TH2 digital platform just got a new CEO from high up in expedia (which also owns trivago). http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/329929/294189.pdf

Your posts on thl seem variously up or down, Winner. I don't really understand? Are you just nervous that they are a good company but in a market that requires the good times to keep going?

Consistent view is thl is a capital intensive business playing in a cyclical market. Current business worth only $4.00 / $4.50 and needs the touted acquisitions to get share price back to $6/$7 (or be acquired)

So at $5 odd still hoping good times (market continues) and hoping for acquisitions one way or the other ....and being ‘up or down’ probably is dependent how I see each of those playing out.

[simla]

Okay, thanks.

[Leftfield]

Hmm, but then thl is not just NZ. Obviously the world confidence levels affect tourism though, and they are seriously hard to read presently.

However, the TH2 digital platform just got a new CEO from high up in expedia (which also owns trivago). http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/329929/294189.pdf

Your posts on thl seem variously up or down, Winner. I don't really understand? Are you just nervous that they are a good company but in a market that requires the good times to keep going?

From a TA perspective THL is not looking great and I no longer hold. It will need some positive news and a trend change to entice me back. I suspect the market is very unsure re the potential of the TH2 digital platform which could be the best thing since sliced bread, but also could be an expensive mistake. Time will tell.

[iceman]

The hammering today obviously a result of AIR's big downgrade and negative outlook on the industry. Bot shares may be in for a rough ride this year. Luckily I pulled out of AIR when the RR engine problems hit and have reduced THL quite a bit. But have firmly fastened the seatbelts and will hold the remaining shares through the rough ride ahead. As winner69 says, we desperately need good news or acquisitions announcements :-)

[percy]

Yet I read recently, November hotel/motel etc visitor stay nights in November were up on the previous year.
MCK report in a week or two, so will see what their occupancy has been.

[winner69]

Yet I read recently, November hotel/motel etc visitor stay nights in November were up on the previous year.

Yes numbers still increasing ...but growth rate declining

AIR said ‘slowing growth’ domestically and ‘softening inbound tourism traffic’

[mondograss]

Yes numbers still increasing ...but growth rate declining

AIR said ‘slowing growth’ domestically and ‘softening inbound tourism traffic’

Which makes diversifying into other markets and other growth areas more critical. Like many others on this forum I'm not convinced of the value of TH2, but I'm willing to give it a bit of time to play out and see what they can make of it.

[iceman]

It will be interesting to read the interim report to see how they have been trading, but confidence in tourism sure has taken a hit today. Interim should be available in about 2 weeks or so. Fingers crossed meantime

[iceman]

NZ Statistics reports 386,000 international visitors arrived in November, up 7% YoY giving us an annual growth in numbers of 3.6% to 3.85 million. Still growing quite respectably but significantly slower than the huge growth in recent year. This is a good thing as our infrastructure is not coping with the high growth to continue forever.
With 5 people Worldwide joining the middle class every second, I think there is little doubt tourism will continue to grow significantly in the next 1-2 decades. Important to remember that the sky is not falling, just a slightly slower growth, which I think is a good thing for NZ.

Of course NZ tourism is but one part of THL, but an important one.

[iceman]

I'll be buying more AIR today as well. I still believe in the story, but as you wisely point out, a little breather to catch up may overall be a good thing for New Zealand.

I'm tempted to re-enter AIR again but will need to stay focused and wait and see :-)

[Raz]

Thanks for this. I've always been an investor in the NZ tourism story, and mostly (excepting 2018 for instance) it's worked out really well. I think the Chinese middle-class has taken some hits this year due in part to Trump's machinations, but overall the world is getting safer, more affluent, and traveling more. I recently read Steven Pinker's book dispelling a number of "sky is falling" myths about the world. It's important to take the long view about these things and not make emotional decisions. I'll be buying more AIR today as well. I still believe in the story, but as you wisely point out, a little breather to catch up may overall be a good thing for New Zealand.

In addition, price gouging compared to alternatives, seen a lot of reviews on social media that NZ is very expenses and word gets around.

[iceman]

In addition, price gouging compared to alternatives, seen a lot of reviews on social media that NZ is very expenses and word gets around.

Yes that word definitely is getting out. But I think many countries that have seen big growth in visitors, largely due to a clean green environment (yes we can debate the accuracy of that) such as NZ, Norway, Iceland and many others, are all bulging at the seems. No doubt we will have an increased debate about whether we somehow try to control the type of tourists we prefer and how we do it. Being more expensive is not necessarily a bad thing, if people get what they pay for and leave satisfied.

[Scrunch]

In addition, price gouging compared to alternatives, seen a lot of reviews on social media that NZ is very expenses and word gets around.

However if you are renting an motor home a lot of your big costs are known at the time you book. Airfares, accommodation and vehicle rental are all known, as would the cost of the interislander if you go between islands. People continue to book and come here. Also slowing growth still means more people coming into the country than the year before.

[winner69]

Yes that word definitely is getting out. But I think many countries that have seen big growth in visitors, largely due to a clean green environment (yes we can debate the accuracy of that) such as NZ, Norway, Iceland and many others, are all bulging at the seems. No doubt we will have an increased debate about whether we somehow try to control the type of tourists we prefer and how we do it. Being more expensive is not necessarily a bad thing, if people get what they pay for and leave satisfied.

Probabably one of the most expensive places I’ve been to is Iceland but that doesn’t seem to stop me and many more millions making the trip and having a great time there....and maybe even go back

[iceman]

Probabably one of the most expensive places I’ve been to is Iceland but that doesn’t seem to stop me and many more millions making the trip and having a great time there....and maybe even go back

And despite being so expensive they’ve grown visitor numbers from 500,000 in 2010 to 2.1 million in 2017, 6 ttimes the population !! Shows its not all about being cheap

[Sideshow Bob]

In addition, price gouging compared to alternatives, seen a lot of reviews on social media that NZ is very expenses and word gets around.

Exchange rate also makes a big difference - not that long ago the Kiwi was 3 to the pound, 2 to the USD and about 2 to the Euro.

Makes a huge difference for a Pom coming here, or a Yank for that matter. Makes a huge difference also for Kiwi's going off-shore for hols.

But I wouldn't argue about price gouging in some areas......

[BlackPeter]

And despite being so expensive they’ve grown visitor numbers from 500,000 in 2010 to 2.1 million in 2017, 6 ttimes the population !! Shows its not all about being cheap

No - its not about being cheap - it is about being offering value for money. I can't comment on Iceland, but New Zealand sells a lot of hype (clean and green, 100% pure) but delivers rivers which are hardly wade-able, springs which are dangerous to drink from, chlorinated town drinking water like in third world countries, drinking water with unhealthy load of nitrates and beaches which are a health hazard to use, next to a stretched infrastructure and a more and more anti-tourist population. Sure, they like to take the money, but wouldn't it better these people paid up but stayed home?

I think it is time for a cool down period - we need to become cleaner and start to appreciate our guests (aka cash cows) again.

[Beagle]

In addition, price gouging compared to alternatives, seen a lot of reviews on social media that NZ is very expenses and word gets around.

No question in my mind that hiring a decent 6 berth campervan for as decent 10-14 day run around the South Island in peak season is quite an expensive exercise. If I think its quite expensive then most Tourists are sure to be thinking the same. TH2 is also a hole that nobody knows the depth of. I see plenty of risk with this one.

[pg0220]

No question in my mind that hiring a decent 6 berth campervan for as decent 10-14 day run around the South Island in peak season is quite an expensive exercise. If I think its quite expensive then most Tourists are sure to be thinking the same.
If you have to rent a car for 10-14 day trip in south island and have to find an accommodation for each night to stay plus having to give up the view you get to see when you wake up + sleep and flexibility and fun you get by travelling on a campervan, I don't think that would be that quite expensive :)

[Beagle]

If you have to rent a car for 10-14 day trip in south island and have to find an accommodation for each night to stay plus having to give up the view you get to see when you wake up + sleep and flexibility and fun you get by travelling on a campervan, I don't think that would be that quite expensive :)

I understand where you're coming from that its a unique experience and motels and rental cars are not cheap either and have less flexibility but that doesn't change the fact that travel all the way to N.Z. and then expensive campervan hire in peak season is a "luxury"* discretionary purchase that people make when they feel good about their economic situation and prospects and if they don't feel good about their finances or prospects, guess what, they don't do it !
*Being stuck in a campervan for 10-14 days with kids is not my idea of luxury holiday but each to their own.

[pg0220]

That's true Beagle. Making the way down to the south island for a travel itself is a luxury trip already! But if you have already made the decision and planning for a unique experience, a campervan can give you one that is very differentiated from the normal motel/bnb stays unless you are looking at something super-luxury down there :) I have never been that luxury in my life so can't tell what that would be like. I agree with you, each to their own as I dream of going out for camping every weekend with my kid and sitting in a chair sipping my handmade espresso!

[hotshothendo]

Exchange rate also makes a big difference - not that long ago the Kiwi was 3 to the pound, 2 to the USD and about 2 to the Euro.

Makes a huge difference for a Pom coming here, or a Yank for that matter. Makes a huge difference also for Kiwi's going off-shore for hols.

But I wouldn't argue about price gouging in some areas......

The last time it was $3 to the pound was about 10 years ago

[oldtech]

THL getting hammered ... down to $4.53 as I type this ... I dread to think where the bottom is on this one

[RupertBear]

THL getting hammered ... down to $4.53 as I type this ... I dread to think where the bottom is on this one

Thinking the same thing myself. Sold a few at $5.10 wishing I had sold them all. Oh well maybe a good buying oportunity coming up, but when is the question?! :confused:

[BlackPeter]

Make it $4.52 - no, actually $4.51. $4.53 was the last big bottom in November 2018, a quite important support level which looks pretty weak at current.

If it doesn't hold (it is the day end price which counts), than we enter nearly uncharted territory - a 3 handle seems possible.

Time for THL supporters to put their money where their mouth is? All hands to the pump :D! Only alternative I could see is: run for the hills!

[RupertBear]

I confess to a small nibble yesterday...but probably jumped the gun again

[winner69]

Maybe on the 26th there will be some news on the acquisitions they have been teasing us about ...or the new big target for 2020

No news share price back to around 4 bucks with the diminished hope of acquisitions ...even though current business means $3.50 is a more realistic price based on $40m profit this year ....a PE of 11 is pretty good for a capital intensive business.

[BlackPeter]

I confess to a small nibble yesterday...but probably jumped the gun again

Who knows? Might still bounce. However - a tight stoploss might appear at current appropriate ...

[oldtech]

I confess to a small nibble yesterday...but probably jumped the gun again

I made a fair amount of money (for me!) playing "catch the falling knife" with Air NZ in 2016 - bought while the price was tumbling, averaging down, then sold when it went back up - worked for me, but probably not the best strategy :eek2:

[Beagle]

I confess to a small nibble yesterday...but probably jumped the gun again

Very clear downtrend suggests this is a very high risk entry point. Trying to pick a bottom with no encouragement from TA usually results in disappointment. Be careful little bear.

[RupertBear]

I made a fair amount of money (for me!) playing "catch the falling knife" with Air NZ in 2016 - bought while the price was tumbling, averaging down, then sold when it went back up - worked for me, but probably not the best strategy :eek2:

Yep I keep telling myself to stop catching the falling knife but I keep on doing it. Hopeless! :sleep:

[winner69]

Looks like 450 holding strongly ....that’s good

[Beagle]

Looks like 450 holding strongly ....that’s good

Holding for now. I can't help wondering how much gas Rob Campbell has in the tank at his age, (probably because I can start to feel my own energy level's starting to wane a bit lol)

[winner69]

Come 26 Feb half year I’d be hoping that an when updated table (below) would look a lot healthier.

Using those cash flows as a base for a DCF it’s very hard to see how you’d get an equity value of $700m (today’s market cap)

Never mind, the teasing might be over and a huge acquisition will be announced that will distract punters for a year or so.

[winner69]

....or maybe thl being taken over at $5.50 is the best thing theing to look forward to.

[iceman]

Holding for now. I can't help wondering how much gas Rob Campbell has in the tank at his age, (probably because I can start to feel my own energy level's starting to wane a bit lol)

I agree with this Beagle and found it disappointing that Rob, who has done a good job at THL and SUM, would add SKC to his busy schedule 18 months ago.

[forest]

I agree with this Beagle and found it disappointing that Rob, who has done a good job at THL and SUM, would add SKC to his busy schedule 18 months ago.

I have been to a few presentations of Rob C over the years and had a couple of discussions with him not that long ago. I think Rob has a very active mind and is a master in delegating to and motivating others. Even if Rob is past his best, which I doubt, I consider him still as one of NZ best directors.
Go to one of his presentations, see if you still think the same. :)

[Beagle]

I have been to a few presentations of Rob C over the years and had a couple of discussions with him not that long ago. I think Rob has a very active mind and is a master in delegating to and motivating others. Even if Rob is past his best, which I doubt, I consider him still as one of NZ best directors.
Go to one of his presentations, see if you still think the same. :)

I agree with you Forest but my concern is that THL is FAR from a bunch of relatively simple Australasian business it was a few years ago and then as Iceman has pointed out the demands of the Chairman role at SKC who have many of their own complex issues are not inconsiderable either. Dramatically increasing the workload with advancing years and an expanding waistline is not usually a good combination of factors. (This dog thinks there's a major fight shaping up between FBU and SKC over the international convention centre that might require huge amounts of intellectual horsepower and time from both boards) https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12203007

[RTM]

Holding for now. I can't help wondering how much gas Rob Campbell has in the tank at his age, (probably because I can start to feel my own energy level's starting to wane a bit lol)

And I have the same concerns with Briscoes. How long will the Duke of Retail keep going ? Or want to keep going ?

[Saffer]

What share programme are you guys/galls using as I would like to invest in a good but reasonable priced one? As I see lots of talk about shorts and longs and it does not make much sense without some sort of live viewing of what is happening at any moment in the stock exchange.

[iceman]

I have been to a few presentations of Rob C over the years and had a couple of discussions with him not that long ago. I think Rob has a very active mind and is a master in delegating to and motivating others. Even if Rob is past his best, which I doubt, I consider him still as one of NZ best directors.
Go to one of his presentations, see if you still think the same. :)

I have been to a couple of Rob's presentations and agree with you Forest that he has done very well where he has been and I have been very pleased with the perfrormance of both SUM and THL under his stewadrship. But he is no super human and I do not think being Chairman of 3 companies on the NZX is the best for shareholders or Rob himself.

[Patient Panda]

What share programme are you guys/galls using as I would like to invest in a good but reasonable priced one? As I see lots of talk about shorts and longs and it does not make much sense without some sort of live viewing of what is happening at any moment in the stock exchange.


Most people here use direct broking or ASBs share trading platform but there are many others out there

[dodgy]

Hi Everyone,
I travel extensively through the States each summer and question El Monte RV hire participants - mainly German , French etc. and without fail they all report disorganised hire, RV problems,poor cleanliness and lack of service.....maybe this acquisition really drags on THL.
For this reason currently not a holder.
Regards,
dodgy

[Balance]

China tourism situation looking rather grim for NZ?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12203232

"But for the big guns of the NZ tourism and travel industry the "postponement" is a major disappointment."

"MBIE forecasts made in May 2018 had forecast 512,000 arrivals from China in 2019. But for the year ending November, 2018, just 414,000 arrivals had come from China."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12203209

But all is fine according to DPM & Foreign Affairs Minister Peters :

".... Foreign Minister Winston Peters said China and New Zealand's relationship was "excellent".

So all good, guys, get ready to buy up THL big time (if you are a NZF supporter, that is)!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12203255

"Peters described the relationship with China as excellent which means either he is deluded or he is just doing what diplomats and politicians do - pretend that everything is fine until it actually is."

[King1212]

I remenbered before Peter took power, during the campaign..he was against the Chinese migrants...bloody racist fellow. Now, he got what he wanted...he can easily say all good in the hood. He was attacking business owner that advertised Chinese speaking staff...what a lunatic fellow...

[Balance]

I remenbered before Peter took power, during the campaign..he was against the Chinese migrants...bloody racist fellow. Now, he got what he wanted...he can easily say all good in the hood. He was attacking business owner that advertised Chinese speaking staff...what a lunatic fellow...

Anything to win votes - that's politics.

The big worry for NZ now is that we have an 'all cheesy smiles but no substance' PM with a bunch of socialist amateurs who are incapable of controlling the conniving Peters - THAT could be really bad news for NZ!

Not only a case of China tourist numbers under pressure as a consequence of the current poor state of NZ/China relationship, China investors had been investing in NZ companies like SCL, THL, CVT etc on the back of their big companies buying in. Would not surprised me if some of the sp pressure (on THL & CVT in particular) is as a consequence of them bailing out?

[winner69]

Hi Everyone,
I travel extensively through the States each summer and question El Monte RV hire participants - mainly German , French etc. and without fail they all report disorganised hire, RV problems,poor cleanliness and lack of service.....maybe this acquisition really drags on THL.
For this reason currently not a holder.
Regards,
dodgy

Could be why they said at the AGM that El Monte is performing below expectations and that El Monte’s earnings for FY19 are looking to be lower than FY18

Wonder how much lower?

[Balance]

Could be why they said at the AGM that El Monte is performing below expectations and that El Monte’s earnings for FY19 are looking to be lower than FY18

Wonder how much lower?

Just wondering aloud - could the market be anticipating a rights issue now that the sale of some assets is not going through and THL has been using debt to pay part of the dividends in the last two years?

Will be a prudent thing to do to provide cushion in case of a sustained downturn.

[winner69]

Just wondering aloud - could the market be anticipating a rights issue now that the sale of some assets is not going through and THL has been using debt to pay part of the dividends in the last two years?

Will be a prudent thing to do to provide cushion in case of a sustained downturn.

Do a real big capital raise (more than they need) when they do the acquisitions they keep teasing us about

[winner69]

Remember Rob at the AGM quoting F Scott Fitzgerald as saying “vitality shows not only in the ability to persist but the ability to start over”. That captures what we are trying to do he said

And as Bon Jovi said 'keep the faith'

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12204024

Enough subtle warnings given by China to this inept 'all cheesy smiles and no substance' government.

Hope they take note and Peters start peddling backwards before China lowers the big boom. Then, it's all too late.

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12204024

Enough subtle warnings given by China to this inept 'all cheesy smiles and no substance' government.

Hope they take note and Peters start peddling backwards before China lowers the big boom. Then, it's all too late.

But Peters says he is an insider as far as China goes and knows more than tinpot NZ businessmen whose based over there

The yanks flying a B-52 over NZ for the Airshow at Masterton next week probably signals who our friends are. Should be an awesome flight

[Balance]

But Peters says he is an insider as far as China goes and knows more than tinpot NZ businessmen whose based over there

The yanks flying a B-52 over NZ for the Airshow at Masterton next week probably signals who our friends are. Should be an awesome flight

Yes. Yanks will be doing surveillance with the spy B-52 and if NZ tries any of that funny stuff (remember Lange & NZ being booted out of ANUS?), the yanks may just have a few BIG ONES in that B52 too!

Anyone who trusts the Yanks seriously need their heads read by Peters.

[BlackPeter]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12204024

Enough subtle warnings given by China to this inept 'all cheesy smiles and no substance' government.

Hope they take note and Peters start peddling backwards before China lowers the big boom. Then, it's all too late.

From your link:


An article published in the English version of China's People's Daily newspaper suggests New Zealand has fallen out of favour with Chinese travellers.

The paper, regarded as the mouthpiece for the Chinese government, quotes a traveller who saved more than $3200 to come to New Zealand but cancelled his plans.

"Is it a kind of robbery? New Zealand stabbed us in the back but asks for our money? This is double-faced," a Beijing-based worker told the Global Times.


Ouch. These sentiments can do immense damage to our industry. Time to get some grown ups back into government. Green behind the ears is not good enough.

[Beagle]

But Peters says he is an insider as far as China goes and knows more than tinpot NZ businessmen whose based over there

The yanks flying a B-52 over NZ for the Airshow at Masterton next week probably signals who our friends are. Should be an awesome flight

Shame they don't bring one of their F22 raptors here, I'd come down for that. B52 is so last century... but I agree, still a very impressive aircraft.
They send F22 raptors to the Australian Avalon airshow at Geelong...shows you the American's are more cosy with Australia doesn't it.

Backlash from the Chinese starting ? https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/chinese-tourists-backing-out-of-trips-to-back-stabbing-nz/ar-BBTBeQ7?ocid=spartandhp

[winner69]

Wonder what tomorrow’s announcement will bring

Will be interesting .....anything seems possible

[RTM]

Wonder what tomorrow’s announcement will bring

Will be interesting .....anything seems possible

Quite concerned about this one...especially given Air NZ’s recent comments on incoming passengers.

[minimoke]

Quite concerned about this one...especially given Air NZ’s recent comments on incoming passengers.Its only an observation on NZ, but on my road trip to Queenstown last weekend I was surprised how few camper vans there were on the road. Quite a few parked up along the canals and a few looking at the view of Mt Cook. Other than that I think I over took, maybe one. But I did get to speak to a few tourists who continue to rave about NZ as a destination. They love it - some were repeat visitors from the UK. Queenstown was absolutely humming in the evening.

On the flip side I'm looking at a road trip in the USA next year. Blown away with how expensive accomodation is. A camper van could have been an option If I could coordinate the pick-up / drop off locations. Which I cant. So its a rental car

[Balance]

But Peters says he is an insider as far as China goes and knows more than tinpot NZ businessmen whose based over there

The yanks flying a B-52 over NZ for the Airshow at Masterton next week probably signals who our friends are. Should be an awesome flight

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/110815155/b52-debut-at-wings-over-wairarapa-cancelled-due-to-operational-issue

Like all things American, B-52 could not make it due to 'mechanical' operational issues.

Stranded in Australia.

We will soon have 4G+ while the Germans, Dutch, English and whole of Asia go super-sonic with 5G.

Good one, Jacinda 'all teeth and no bite' Ardern, for taking NZ backwards - again!

[winner69]

Profit down for half and full year guidance a bit lower than I thought it would be. Oops — dress it up a bit and profits actually up.

One needs to keep the faith


Chairman, Mr Rob Campbell, said, “This business is not only growing, but is changing in its scope and structure. We are taking the build/buy– rent – sell model in our RV business to wider geographies. At the same time, we are extending the scope of what we offer the global market. There are positive early signs in our significant TH2 investment with Thor Industries. TH2 has the potential to be a strong digital infrastructure provider, not only to thl and Thor, but to the wider industry.”

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/331072/295663.pdf

[winner69]

Extract from presentation -


There has been some commentary in the market that we are considering a capital raise to fund potential M&A. We can confirm that we have no current transactions in play which would require us to undertake a capital raise.

[winner69]

Hope the promise of growth from an acquisition currently built into the shareprice doesnt dissipate

That would cause a fair bit of weakness

PE of 18 on forecast earnings is very high

[BigBob]

Quite concerned about this one...especially given Air NZ’s recent comments on incoming passengers.

Nothing to see here... : “While there is some uncertainty about the growth rate for international tourism, we are currently still experiencing growth in forward bookings in all markets.” ;-)

[BlackPeter]

Profit down for half and full year guidance a bit lower than I thought it would be. Oops — dress it up a bit and profits actually up.

One needs to keep the faith


Chairman, Mr Rob Campbell, said, “This business is not only growing, but is changing in its scope and structure. We are taking the build/buy– rent – sell model in our RV business to wider geographies. At the same time, we are extending the scope of what we offer the global market. There are positive early signs in our significant TH2 investment with Thor Industries. TH2 has the potential to be a strong digital infrastructure provider, not only to thl and Thor, but to the wider industry.”

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/331072/295663.pdf

Well, despite all the big yellow "feel-good" bubbles for this years results - revenue down (slightly - 1%) and NPAT down (significantly - 17%). They didn't hide the numbers good enough - Ouch.

And yes, how they measure their "good" progress re TH2 development / implementation is anybodys best guess. I have seen during my career many delusional managers without any clue re the progress of their software projects - and THL board / management are not even software specialists...

And I thought I was brave holding TRA :);

[minimoke]

Well, despite all the big yellow "feel-good" bubbles for this years results - revenue down (slightly - 1%) and NPAT down (significantly - 17%). They didn't hide the numbers good enough - Ouch.

And yes, how they measure their "good" progress re TH2 development / implementation is anybody's best guess. I have seen during my career many delusional managers without any clue re the progress of their software projects - and THL board / management are not even software specialists...
As a holder of THL I have more faith (based on their delivery) in THL than TRA. THL have found a potential future revenue stream - that comes with risk. Thants the nature of business if you want to to grow long term.

[golden city]

I am believing the management is trying to setup future value for the company

[RTM]

As a holder of THL I have more faith (based on their delivery) in THL than TRA. THL have found a potential future revenue stream - that comes with risk. Thants the nature of business if you want to to grow long term.

Interesting. THL worry me more in that they are going into new areas. Computer projects easily exceed costs, can’t afford to continue, can’t afford to stop ��. TRA at least should be able to foresee and control/manage their variables, I think better than THL.
Disc: Holder. 2.8% of portfolio.

[JeremyALD]

It's a pretty disappointing, but expected result. THL were growing significantly, looked like they would smash their 50m NPAT target and then decided to steer in a new direction. One with much higher risk when markets will be more volatile worldwide. ATL has also suffered a significant loss in shareholder value by increasing their exposure and risk through M&A and this dosen't look like a particularly
attractive area to invest in at the moment.

I'm also worried about their high levels of debt and am wondering if these dividends are sustainable (first time they have remained flat in many years).

Personally I wouldn't hold THL again until they get some runs on the board with T2.

[Balance]

Hope the promise of growth from an acquisition currently built into the shareprice doesnt dissipate

That would cause a fair bit of weakness

PE of 18 on forecast earnings is very high

Realistically, a PER of 13.5 is as much as one would pay for a company with a declining earnings profile and irrespective of what is stated about capital raise, there will have to be one for the next acquisition.

[winner69]

Jeremy ...obviously we are not going to get a new target of ‘way above $50m’ (or something like that) that they said they would come up with.

Cash flow negative again I note ...and still divies being paid

[oldtech]

... and down she goes ...

[Beagle]

An absolute shocker. No way to sugar coat this. Sales and stock of used campervans shaping up as a real thorn in their side, not that they need another one after digging themselves one with throwing millions at digital idea's with no clear pathway to growth. Looks like we're headed back to this trading on a cyclical no growth basis and a big downward correction in the SP. I won't try and value at this stage other than to say I think fair value is a long way south of the current share price.

[pg0220]

I exited with loss realised today.... a decrease in profit EXCLUDING non recurring item wasn't looking good. I also learned my lesson how a negative result can affect this kind of stock and the effect last for a long time.... I still believe that THL is a good company but just not sure how long the downtrend will continue especially the result numbers don't sound hopeful

[oldtech]

Considering exiting also ... would have to wear a big loss, but at this rate it'll take another four years of dividends just to break even ... I don't know that I'm prepared to take that risk.

[sb9]

If anything today's price drop will make that Chinese outfit more keen....

[Balance]

If anything today's price drop will make that Chinese outfit more keen....

Don't think so.

The Chinese are momentum chasers.

[sb9]

Don't think so.

The Chinese are momentum chasers.

If so, the 'momentum' is here now.

[Balance]

If so, the 'momentum' is here now.

Haha - love it!

[RupertBear]

Got out $5.54 with a reasonable profit. Very dissapointed as I thought they were a great company and I planned to hold them long term. Will consider buying back if it drops into the $3s...ouch! GLH!

[Lease]

Guys above disappointed THL is understandable. But THL has track record of excellence. Probably you need to look at it in the long-run which I believe it will still be excellent.

No companies without any concerns. If there was one, its share price would have reached sky high.

[golden city]

Keeping the faith as dividend in the pocket

[oldtech]

Guys above disappointed THL is understandable. But THL has track record of excellence. Probably you need to look at it in the long-run which I believe it will still be excellent.

No companies without any concerns. If there was one, its share price would have reached sky high.

Understand that Lease, but THL SP has been steadily heading the wrong way for around 8 months now. That's what worries me.

[Lease]

Understand that Lease, but THL SP has been steadily heading the wrong way for around 8 months now. That's what worries me.

I don't encourage others to buy into the share right now as my gut feeling is the industry has passed peak cycle, and nobody is able to confront the trend if the cycle is going downward. So at moment, long-term investors should hold sufficient cash on hand and wait for, probably market crash.

[winner69]

Guys above disappointed THL is understandable. But THL has track record of excellence. Probably you need to look at it in the long-run which I believe it will still be excellent.

No companies without any concerns. If there was one, its share price would have reached sky high.



Long term history thats not so ....only recently could you say a track record of excellence (and some might question that statement)

[RupertBear]

Keeping the faith as dividend in the pocket

The divee tempted me to hold at least for a while but decided my capital loss would exceed the divee given their result and the current downtrend. Pleased to be out of this one atm.

[Lease]

Long term history thats not so ....only recently could you say a track record of excellence (and some might question that statement)

I started to invest THL in 2008, just prior to GFC. In those extremely difficult years, THL had only one year made loss. Once market conditions are improved, it outperformed. Probably a decade you think is not very long, but I have gone through with THL ups and downs. I put my faith on THL management.

[forest]

I started to invest THL in 2008, just prior to GFC. In those extremely difficult years, THL had only one year made loss. Once market conditions are improved, it outperformed. Probably a decade you think is not very long, but I have gone through with THL ups and downs. I put my faith on THL management.

I agree with you Lease, I think we have exceptional good management with THL. THL is moving with the times and adjusting there business model. This is something to encourage in management. I think THL is a case of the more you understand the management and company the more one is comfortable with the direction it is going.

The 3 year forecast is for $50m from business as usual, that is good growth to come and a high dividend on top of it.
Maybe volatile for some time but good prospects.

[golden city]

I am another committed shareholder that invested in the company in the most difficult years they hardly do capital raising even in gfc

[Beagle]

https://www.marketscreener.com/TOURISM-HOLDINGS-LTD-6491392/financials/
Based on $33m forecast = eps = 25.1 cps so $32m the new forecast = 24.3 cps. I really struggle to see the growth in eps that the average analyst is forecasting here and I expect downgrades to come through as growth has well and truly come off the boil. At $4.39 they are on a forward PE of 18.1. I do not think that's cheap by any means in the circumstances.
The chart says there's a VERY clear downtrend and the fundamental's do not look compelling at all for a tourism company. PE of 18 is about as high as this company has ever traded when growth was on track.

I expect the strong correction to continue for quite some time. This looks like a good stock to avoid for a while until a new uptrend commences and that might be quite some time in the future.
Somewhere in the low $3 range provided they can show some traction with the millions they're investing in TH2, it could be worth another look.

[winner69]

This from presentation interesting ....expected company values to fall and get things cheaper in future?


Can you provide an update on the M&A opportunities mentioned at the 2018 Annual Meeting?

thl continues to explore a number of potential M&A opportunities. In January, we decided not to proceed with a potential material acquisition that was being explored for some time. We continue to remain disciplined on pricing and are committed to only proceeding with M&A opportunities where we believe that the opportunity represents real value for thl.

There has been a general decline in pricing across the globe in publicly-listed RV & tourism businesses, which thl itself has also been impacted by. Any future M&A opportunities that we explore in this sector would need to reflect this change in the overall market.

There has been some commentary in the market that we are considering a capital raise to fund potential M&A. We can confirm that we have no current transactions in play which would require us to undertake a capital raise

[Balance]

https://www.marketscreener.com/TOURISM-HOLDINGS-LTD-6491392/financials/
Based on $33m forecast = eps = 25.1 cps so $32m the new forecast = 24.3 cps. I really struggle to see the growth in eps that the average analyst is forecasting here and I expect downgrades to come through as growth has well and truly come off the boil. At $4.39 they are on a forward PE of 18.1. I do not think that's cheap by any means in the circumstances.
The chart says there's a VERY clear downtrend and the fundamental's do not look compelling at all for a tourism company. PE of 18 is about as high as this company has ever traded when growth was on track.

I expect the strong correction to continue for quite some time. This looks like a good stock to avoid for a while until a new uptrend commences and that might be quite some time in the future.
Somewhere in the low $3 range provided they can show some traction with the millions they're investing in TH2, it could be worth another look.

Downgrades come in threes.

This is the 'lower end of downgraded forecast' downgrade so two more to go imo.

[winner69]

Cash flows remain abysmal .....negative in last half

Not much of a cash generating business ...so not worth $4.40 ....but probably not as low as Beagles $3 as they can always sell up and get more than that.

Cash is king

[Leftfield]

Downgrades come in threes.
This is the 'lower end of downgraded forecast' downgrade so two more to go imo.

There has been plenty of warning on this one and from a TA perspective it has been in Death Cross mode for some time. There are times when Dividend stocks fool you into holding something that you should't and recent falls wipe out your capital if you are not careful.

Feel for holders as I too once held high hopes for this one but quit a while ago.

[Balance]

There has been plenty of warning on this one and from a TA perspective it has been in Death Cross mode for some time. There are times when Dividend stocks fool you into holding something that you should't and recent falls wipe out your capital if you are not careful.

Feel for holders as I too once held high hopes for this one but quit a while ago.

Can you please point to your TA post where you alerted to the Death Cross mode?

Thanks in advance.

[winner69]

Yesterday Apollo in OZ (ATL) were 'pleased to report solid underlying performance by the Company during a period of consolidation and continued investment.'


Sounds familar and their share price has been hammered 20% since


Tourism not a good sector at the moment

[Lease]

I reckon this may be a sign that general economy may go to recession. When economy is getting worse, people immediately cut recreational expenses which are source of income for THL and ATL.

[winner69]

If the share price drops to $4 then it would be back to where it was two years ago .....seems about where the price should be

Downward trend doesn’t seem to be abating

[Balance]

There has been plenty of warning on this one and from a TA perspective it has been in Death Cross mode for some time. There are times when Dividend stocks fool you into holding something that you should't and recent falls wipe out your capital if you are not careful.

Feel for holders as I too once held high hopes for this one but quit a while ago.

I think you do a great dis-service to the TA community by making hindsight observations and comments like these.

Please back up with forward observations and comments if you want to be taken seriously.

[Leftfield]

I think you do a great dis-service to the TA community by making hindsight observations and comments like these.
Please back up with forward observations and comments if you want to be taken seriously.

Balance I think you do me a disservice. Firstly I am currently traveling and have scant internet availability, so hence this slow reply.

Secondly, let me say that at no stage did I ever post that THL was a sell. I do not usually post details of my buys or sells as I am a relative newcomer on this site, and I do not claim to have your skills or beagles or whatever. i also do not want to be accused of ramping or down ramping.

That said, the death cross on THL occurred in Oct 18 as per the attached chart, and I acted on it at the time.
10349

I have checked my records and I note that I sold my THL holdings progressively from19/9/18 to 20/11/18 at prices ranging from $5.10 to $4.60. I am happy to show you evidence of these trades.

I currently have no THL and am happy with my decisions, even if you are not.

[Balance]

Balance I think you do me a disservice. Firstly I am currently traveling and have scant internet availability, so hence this slow reply.

Secondly, let me say that at no stage did I ever post that THL was a sell. I do not usually post details of my buys or sells as I am a relative newcomer on this site, and I do not claim to have your skills or beagles or whatever. i also do not want to be accused of ramping or down ramping.

That said, the death cross on THL occurred in Oct 18 as per the attached chart, and I acted on it at the time.

I have checked my records and I note that I sold my THL holdings progressively from19/9/18 to 20/11/18 at prices ranging from $5.10 to $4.60. I am happy to show you evidence of these trades.

I currently have no THL and am happy with my decisions, even if you are not.

LF, thanks for your response.

My point is that TA posters too often post hindsight observations of when a stock did this or did that, and so it was a sell or a buy.

Would it not be more useful (and to establish a track history as well) to have sold your shares in THL and posted your death cross observation? Bugger those who accuse anyone of down ramping or whatsoever - they are posters of little consequence imo.

The way you wrote your piece is that :

1. There were plenty of warnings

2. TA practitioners saw those warnings and would have all sold out by inference?

It is grating to say the least to those who are holding or worse, bought in the last 6 months if it is indeed that obvious!

That's my point.

PS. I sold my THL on their profit warning at the AGM in Oct 2018. So I have no bones to grind re shareholding.

[Balance]

I currently have no THL and am happy with my decisions, even if you are not.

For the record, this is what I posted on 2 Nov after the profit downgrade :


Sp has fallen a long way from the high of $6.85 reached in June this year so it is tempting to think that the worse is over.

A few observations:

1. The sp has been falling in advance of

i) news of negotiations to sell tourism assets &

ii) effectively a profit downgrade announced at the AGM - means there's insider information leaking out imo,

Playing field is not level.

2. First downgrade is never the last - they do come in threes,

3. This is the longest stretch (6 years) I have know THL to perform well and consistently since its days as The Helicopter Line way back in the 1990s - could 1 and 2 above signal that the at phase is over for this run?

4. Current sp is exactly where it was a year ago - so not as bad as it looks which means worse could be in the offing?

5. There were expectations of potential corporate activity after Citi took a stake. That looks unlikely now with the downturn in China equities and economy.

Prefer to be on the side lines at present - downgrades are not a risk I like to chance! Z Energy is a good example in recent times of how one downgrade begets another!

Happy to wait for review and goal reset before re-evaluating.

[herbert240]

Craigs have upgraded their rating from Hold to Buy

[sb9]

Craigs have upgraded their rating from Hold to Buy

Thanks for that.

[winner69]

Craigs have upgraded their rating from Hold to Buy

That’s good ...l.probably why share price is relatively strong today

Punters love Craig’s

[Leftfield]

LF, thanks for your response.

My point is that TA posters too often post hindsight observations of when a stock did this or did that, and so it was a sell or a buy.

Would it not be more useful (and to establish a track history as well) to have sold your shares in THL and posted your death cross observation? Bugger those who accuse anyone of down ramping or whatsoever - they are posters of little consequence imo.


Balance, I really think you are off on the wrong tangent. By your admission we both sold out THL at the same time and I am quite entitled to point out the TA risks of trading in THL currently while it is in a 'down trend.'

As to establishing a 'track record' I have better things to do with my life than post every day and besides in Sept/Oct last year I was overseas on holiday so didn't have the time nor inclination to post my 'trades'.

As to my track record, I am content with the profile that I have posted under my left field identity on this site. I do not need or wish to prove anything more.

I am clearly in need of a break from your ire and am happy that from tomorrow I will be in the depths of the southern alps without internet connectivity. Best wishes.

[Balance]

As to establishing a 'track record' I have better things to do with my life than post every day and besides in Sept/Oct last year ....

As to my track record, I am content with the profile that I have posted under my left field identity on this site. I do not need or wish to prove anything more.



It's ok - you can keep posting your TA hindsight stuff.

Your track record will speak for itself, right?

[oldtech]

Up from $4.31 to $4.67 in two days!

Okay, true confessions time ... who else is kicking themselves for selling on Tuesday? I sure am.:mad ;:

[pg0220]

Up from $4.31 to $4.67 in two days!

Okay, true confessions time ... who else is kicking themselves for selling on Tuesday? I sure am.:mad ;:

I am too! LOL

[cymonger]

Man, I had my hand right on the sell trigger. It looked pretty bleak. I have tons of OCA and THL in my ASB account, and more diverse holdings in my ANZ account. I changed the password for ASB (making it excessively complicated) and then threw it away. This way it's going to be a huge hassle for me to get back into that account and trade those shares.

I want to log back in ten years from now. That's the plan.



I am too! LOL

[Lease]

So trading is a hard job. You never know how the SP move in next day or two. Better to look Company long-term track record and see if there are any fundamental changes in the Company. For THL, I don't see any fundamental deterioration but maybe the industry has passed peak cycle, which is marco factor and it has nothing to do with the company.

[minimoke]

Up from $4.31 to $4.67 in two days!

Okay, true confessions time ... who else is kicking themselves for selling on Tuesday? I sure am.:mad ;:Thats why I have stop losses. Helps me sit aside from the emotion of the day. THL didn't get near my stop loss so had no inclination to sell.

[RupertBear]

Up from $4.31 to $4.67 in two days!

Okay, true confessions time ... who else is kicking themselves for selling on Tuesday? I sure am.:mad ;:

Well I got back in at $4.40 the day I sold out. Wondered if I had stuffed up again but so far seems to have been a good decision

[oldtech]

Well I got back in at $4.40 the day I sold out. Wondered if I had stuffed up again but so far seems to have been a good decision

The stuffing up just adds some excitement! :D

I sold out based on the trend which has been heading downwards for around eight months now - yes I take a long time to make decisions! I also have a gut feeling that, as Lease mentioned, the industry may have had its day and other options are disrupting it.

Having pulled the plug and sold at a loss I now have to sit back and lick my wounds. Time will tell if I got the timing exactly wrong and the SP rockets back up again.

[mondograss]

I'm kind of wanting to get out, or at least reduce my holding quite a bit. But I didn't quite get around to pushing the button so I'll hang on and see what happens. I'm not high on conviction with this one, but at the moment my other options are tracking sideways or well over valued so I'm not in a great rush.

[golden city]

Is citic finally decide it is the right time right market sentiment to pull the trigger

[winner69]

Senior manager hocks off a decent number of shares ...hmmm

[Balance]

Senior manager hocks off a decent number of shares ...hmmm

May be reason why sp fell - executing broker might have spread the word (to get a few sell orders)?

[Benny1]

Is citic finally decide it is the right time right market sentiment to pull the trigger

Haven't quite worked out what the aim is for Citic seemed to come in with a his and a roar then nothing for over a year?
Glad this is still a majority New Zealand owned company at the moment.
Disc: hold and will add thru DRP for time being

[sb9]

Its quite pleasing when insiders acquire shares on market.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/331824

[Scrunch]

And another insider continues purchasing. Jennifer Bunbury (CFO) bought 5,200 shares in January 2019 and has topped up on-market with another 4,800 shares to take her holding to 10,000.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/332792

CFO's buying on their own account :)

[BlackPeter]

And another insider continues purchasing. Jennifer Bunbury (CFO) bought 5,200 shares in January 2019 and has topped up on-market with another 4,800 shares to take her holding to 10,000.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/332792

CFO's buying on their own account :)

Always good if insiders are buying - though the amount you are talking about is not really breaking the bank, isn't it? One other worthwhile question would be: how much experience does she have in assessing the progress of big hairy software projects? I have seen more high technical companies than THL (basically a rental home provider) where the senior leadership team had no clue or understanding of how the (software) flagship projects really were going.

Discl: don't know the answer to above questions (i.e. not just rhetorical) and don't hold.

[IAK]

Good article on over-tourism in NZ from Jon Dumble the tourism pioneer who helped found Queenstown's iconic Skyline restaurant and gondola more than 50 years ago.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12220341

[minimoke]

This from presentation interesting ....expected company values to fall and get things cheaper in future?


Can you provide an update on the M&A opportunities mentioned at the 2018 Annual Meeting?

thl continues to explore a number of potential M&A opportunities. In January, we decided not to proceed with a potential material acquisition that was being explored for some time. We continue to remain disciplined on pricing and are committed to only proceeding with M&A opportunities where we believe that the opportunity represents real value for thl.

In todays announcement THL buys largest shareholding in Australia's Outdooria and GoSeeAustralia

[iceman]

In todays announcement THL buys largest shareholding in Australia's Outdooria and GoSeeAustralia

Not quite Minimoke. TH2, of which THL own 50%, has taken a 35% stake in the new entity

[golden city]

It sounds on track. A 35% shareholding would value campermate Roadtrippers Australia at $37 million. Since not long ago marketplacesr was valued at $70m at latest capital raised together th2 would have a share and profitable business in Australia and can duplicate this in another country if sucessful

[sb9]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/333500

Oh dear...

"The company now expects NPAT of between $25 million to $28 million for the year ended 30 June 2019. The previously announced guidance was for NPAT of around $32 million.
The primary reason for the revised guidance is that the vehicle sales market in the USA has continued to deteriorate and thl’s expectations for the financial year are now substantially below previous forecasts."

Bad acquisition that US business...

Disc - Not a holder

[winner69]

Jeez ....that’s some earnings guidance downgrade - from around $32m npat to around $25m npat

Will the market react ....it’s been in love with thl of late

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/333500/298595.pdf

[minimoke]

Jeez ....that’s some earnings guidance downgrade - from around $32m npat to around $25m npat

Will the market react ....it’s been in love with thl of late Yup - I'm expecting a major hit today which is likely to set me back to break even

[winner69]

You knew it was going to be bad news when the heading said ‘revised guidance’

Nothing to tout was there

[winner69]

Yup - I'm expecting a major hit today which is likely to set me back to break even

Chart shows reasonable support around the 390 level

[sb9]

Chart shows reasonable support around the 390 level

Yep, under $4 is where is I see in the short term.

[Hectorplains]

You knew it was going to be bad news when the heading said ‘revised guidance’

Nothing to tout was there

Half a dozen sentences. I'm all for brevity but to tersely chuck this off with as little an explanation as, "vehicle sales market in the USA has continued to deteriorate." Poor communication.

[Leftfield]

Jeez ....that’s some earnings guidance downgrade - from around $32m npat to around $25m npat

Will the market react ....it’s been in love with thl of late

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/333500/298595.pdf


Phew....glad I'm out.

Too many uncertainties in THL to attract me. Will only revisit when the uncertainty around their digital initiatives and the USA market in general are resolved. Things looking bad for holders IMO.

[winner69]

Half a dozen sentences. I'm all for brevity but to tersely chuck this off with as little an explanation as, "vehicle sales market in the USA has continued to deteriorate." Poor communication.

Did say ‘A decisive operational and capital review of the USA operations is underway immediately.’

In other words PANIC STATIONS (we didn’t see this coming which is a bugger)

And a capital review ....that sounds ominious — maybe big write downs and the need for a capital raise?

Looks like thl heading back to the good old days of beings regular under performer and always disappointing the market.

[pg0220]

was so gutted when SP soared after I sold out. Now I feel much better :eek2:

[winner69]

Doubt whether they’ll be able to borrow to pay a final dividend this time around if they can’t turn all those RVs into cash quickly

thl don’t generate that much cash even in good years.

[Balance]

Sp has fallen a long way from the high of $6.85 reached in June this year so it is tempting to think that the worse is over.

A few observations:

1. The sp has been falling in advance of

i) news of negotiations to sell tourism assets &

ii) effectively a profit downgrade announced at the AGM - means there's insider information leaking out imo,

Playing field is not level.

2. First downgrade is never the last - they do come in threes,

3. This is the longest stretch (6 years) I have know THL to perform well and consistently since its days as The Helicopter Line way back in the 1990s - could 1 and 2 above signal that the at phase is over for this run?

4. Current sp is exactly where it was a year ago - so not as bad as it looks which means worse could be in the offing?

5. There were expectations of potential corporate activity after Citi took a stake. That looks unlikely now with the downturn in China equities and economy.

Prefer to be on the side lines at present - downgrades are not a risk I like to chance! Z Energy is a good example in recent times of how one downgrade begets another!

Happy to wait for review and goal reset before re-evaluating.

Nothing surprising about this downgrade - totally expected.

There will be another one, that's for sure - but in the next financial year as clearly, THL management and directors have showed that trhey do not have a good enough handle on what's happening in the US.

Nov F19 forecast was $32m to $34m - call it $33m vs $37.5m in F18, a 12%+ downgrade.

Now it's $25m - $28m, so call it $26.5m = 20% downgrade.

PER of 16 times?

Calling the sp down to $3.50.

[IAK]

Man, it's hard to get out when everyone is heading for the exit at the same time. Oh well, glad I took the divi and not the DRP. :scared:

[bull....]

what happens when you invest in a cyclical business , bit like air

[minimoke]

Jeez 24.4% drop on open. Not often we get that sort of reaction

[BlackPeter]

Jeez - on the buyers side only one bid: 25k @ $3.85. Wondering whether it will be filled?

Anyway - commiserations to holders, but it always was a cyclical business. Interesting to watch the downturn from the sidelines.

[winner69]

what happens when you invest in a cyclical business , bit like air

Cyclical but also very capital intensive

[bull....]

Cyclical but also very capital intensive

yup the manufacturing segment was always the big problem in nz for yrs

[minimoke]

Man, it's hard to get out when everyone is heading for the exit at the same time. Oh well, glad I took the divi and not the DRP. :scared:And to add salt to my wounds I get my statement today showing increase in holding due to DRP. Bugger!

[see weed]

What's all the fuss about. Look on the bright side. SP already up 26c from 3.85 low. Who was lucky enough to get in at 3.85?;). I see an uptrend forming in the last 25 minutes:t_up:.

[JoeGrogan]

Nice bounce if anyone caught it...

[pg0220]

What's all the fuss about. Look on the bright side. SP already up 26c from 3.85 low. Who was lucky enough to get in at 3.85?;). I see an uptrend forming in the last 25 minutes:t_up:.
I like your optimism!

[Beagle]

https://www.marketscreener.com/TOURISM-HOLDINGS-LTD-6491392/financials/
Based on $33m forecast = eps = 25.1 cps so $32m the new forecast = 24.3 cps. I really struggle to see the growth in eps that the average analyst is forecasting here and I expect downgrades to come through as growth has well and truly come off the boil. At $4.39 they are on a forward PE of 18.1. I do not think that's cheap by any means in the circumstances.
The chart says there's a VERY clear downtrend and the fundamental's do not look compelling at all for a tourism company. PE of 18 is about as high as this company has ever traded when growth was on track.

I expect the strong correction to continue for quite some time. This looks like a good stock to avoid for a while until a new uptrend commences and that might be quite some time in the future.
Somewhere in the low $3 range provided they can show some traction with the millions they're investing in TH2, it could be worth another look.

Posted 26 February 2019. Some people saw this coming. As to what I think after this announcement...well $25 million gives just 20 cps.
At $4.00 that's a forward PE of 20 which is much too optimistic. $3.00 gives a forward PE of 15.
As Winner has quite rightly observed on many occasions this company has been borrowing more and more money to pay its over inflated dividends.
Now we see the net result of that and some softening demand. The Emperor does have some clothes but they are increasingly looking tarnished and tatty.

Are we about to see the dream end and this return to a cyclical tourism company and trade on multiples like AIR at about 10 ?. Surely not. My goodness, if the dream is over that would see it decline to just 10 times 20 cents = $2 ! Very tough day for shareholders so I will be a little kind and offer up some music to suggest the dream may not be over
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjBwAYIxUso

[IAK]

WTH Crowded House! Now that just adds more salt to the wounds. Not helpful lol.

[peat]

pretty sure THL was one of Craigs recommendations a few quarters ago.....

(edit) yup I've just checked the April 2018 quarterly and they had it as an overweight buy as a supplementary stock

[pg0220]

From the day low of $3.85 to $4.41 now, instant gain of 14.5%! Well done to whoever picked at the bottom today!

[couta1]

From the day low of $3.85 to $4.41 now, instant gain of 14.5%! Well done to whoever picked at the bottom today! Yes a very nice trade for those with big balls and who happened to notice first thing this morning.

[Beagle]

What's all the fuss about. Look on the bright side. SP already up 26c from 3.85 low. Who was lucky enough to get in at 3.85?;). I see an uptrend forming in the last 25 minutes:t_up:.

SELL before the herd wakes up and realises the dream is over...

[Raz]

SELL before the herd wakes up and realises the dream is over...

Ohh missed it all while sleeping...still visiting Berlin is more tangible than this company at this price...

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12223512 Downgrades always comes in three's. One more to go.

[macduffy]

And international publicity such as this won't help.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/18/decades-of-denial-major-report-finds-new-zealands-environment-is-in-serious-trouble

[RupertBear]

SELL before the herd wakes up and realises the dream is over...

ALMOST sold at opening but decided I couldnt BEAR to sell at that price :( However took my opportunity to sell out on that nice little bounce :D less profit today than yesterday but happy to be out and watching from the side at the moment.

[RupertBear]

Someone will probably come out with a Take Over offer next week now and there will be Bear tears ;)

[Beagle]

ALMOST sold at opening but decided I couldnt BEAR to sell at that price :( However took my opportunity to sell out on that nice little bounce :D less profit today than yesterday but happy to be out and watching from the side at the moment.

Clever Bear. Have a Beer tonight and tell yourself that Bearing up under the pressure of adversity is good for the soul :)
No chance of a takeover so no chance you'll have to grin and bare it lol

[iceman]

ALMOST sold at opening but decided I couldnt BEAR to sell at that price :( However took my opportunity to sell out on that nice little bounce :D less profit today than yesterday but happy to be out and watching from the side at the moment.

Same here. Sold my last few remaining shares at $ 4.26 today. News way too bad and unexpected. Been a good investment over the last few years but happy to be out now.

[winner69]

Obviously a lot has changed in thl’s assessment of their US performance over the last 8 weeks. At the half year the US wasn’t that good but a few weeks later it’s dire. Even talk of a capital review ....now that’s really bad

In the half year announcement When guidance was changed from a ‘range of $32m to $34m’ to ‘around’ $32m the share slumped to $4.30 that day

Now they come with a guidance of $25m and the share price crashed back to $4.20 ...hmm

So share price still about the same today as it was when guidance was a lot higher

Seems ‘investors’ still in love with thl and they think the futures all bright and rosy...and we shall not punish them too much.

The paper said the bargain hunters came out in force yesterday on a high volume day ...maybe as BlackPeter says price us whst you pay but value is what you get

[Beagle]

Same here. Sold my last few remaining shares at $ 4.26 today. News way too bad and unexpected. Been a good investment over the last few years but happy to be out now.

Good move mate. The dream run is over. They have a systemic issue with disposal of old campers right across their operations by the looks of it.
You can't run a profitable business without being able to ruin the full cycle of acquisition of plant and equipment at attractive prices, operation of same and rental at good prices and disposal at good prices. If anyone of those vital cogs comes undone, (which its clear one has) it could take years to fix the systemic problem.

I sometimes ponder buying a decent second hand campervan, (Beagle's like luxury so its has to be a good one) for about $100K but the numbers simply don't work and one is better off renting. I wonder if we're seeing a structural shift with people's transport and holiday arrangements ? Rent that which depreciates...
Buying a campervan definitely falls deep into the hole of a complete discretionary purchase and one has to have real confidence about one's future prospects to outlay 100 large on something that will be rarely used. Just a whiff of uncertainty about future financial prospects and people simply sit on their hands.

I suspect people's buying habits of large discretionary purchases have changed since the GFC. Most of the luxury car manufactures are struggling with their high end models, Riviera Australia as one example used to make about 400 luxury launches a year at their peak, now they struggle to get 100 orders a year from what I hear.
CEO of Riviera N.Z. told me a while ago that people are simply more careful with their money after the GFC and I think he's right.

I think THL's mountain of used campervans presents very serious and enduring headwinds to the company going forward.

[minimoke]

I sometimes ponder buying a decent second hand campervan, (Beagle's like luxury so its has to be a good one) for about $100K....

npat down another $7m @ $100k a van, just how many are there that are unsold

[iceman]

Obviously a lot has changed in thl’s assessment of their US performance over the last 8 weeks. At the half year the US wasn’t that good but a few weeks later it’s dire. Even talk of a capital review ....now that’s really bad

In the half year announcement When guidance was changed from a ‘range of $32m to $34m’ to ‘around’ $32m the share slumped to $4.30 that day

Now they come with a guidance of $25m and the share price crashed back to $4.20 ...hmm

So share price still about the same today as it was when guidance was a lot higher

Seems ‘investors’ still in love with thl and they think the futures all bright and rosy...and we shall not punish them too much.

The paper said the bargain hunters came out in force yesterday on a high volume day ...maybe as BlackPeter says price us whst you pay but value is what you get

Yes winner69, this looks bad. Too bad for my liking. Not so long ago they were exciting us with $50m profit in the near future and a potential acquisitions. Now the $50m profit seems to have disappeared where Jacinda's CGT went, to oblivion. The announcement of the merger in Australia is not an acquisition and I can not see this happening now, albeit may proven wrong.
Still think the technology investment/development may have exciting opportunities but given the big operational problems in the US, as Beagle correctly points out above, this one is better watched from the sidelines for now.

[winner69]

Half year announcement in February mentioned -

Net Debt at December 2018 of $226M, exceeding original expectations due to the shortfall in vehicle sales in USA....net debt at end F19 expected to be in the range of $217M - $237M.

After Thursday’s anouncement I assume that F19 position will exceed expectations as well.

No wonder they mention words like ‘capital review’ as part of this immediate decisive (panic) review of US operations

[Balance]

Half year announcement in February mentioned -

Net Debt at December 2018 of $226M, exceeding original expectations due to the shortfall in vehicle sales in USA....net debt at end F19 expected to be in the range of $217M - $237M.

After Thursday’s anouncement I assume that F19 position will exceed expectations as well.

No wonder they mention words like ‘capital review’ as part of this immediate decisive (panic) review of US operations

Come on, W69 - don't go scaring the last of the believers in THL.

There's the small matter of a capital raise to fix the balance sheet so a falling sp is not helpful.

[winner69]

Come on, W69 - don't go scaring the last of the believers in THL.

There's the small matter of a capital raise to fix the balance sheet so a falling sp is not helpful.

It will be all ok because Rob talked about vitality at the last AGM

Heaven quoted F Scott Fitzgerald saying “vitality shows not only in the ability to persist but the ability to start over”

Maybe Rob has to now to decide whether to persist or start over again.

[Balance]

It will be all ok because Rob talked about vitality at the last AGM

Heaven quoted F Scott Fitzgerald saying “vitality shows not only in the ability to persist but the ability to start over”

Maybe Rob has to now to decide whether to persist or start over again.

THL should really stick to Oceania - the US and UK have generally been not happy hunting grounds for NZ companies, be them Pumpkin Patch, Fletcher, Michael Hill or as we are finding out, RBD.

[winner69]

thl must be stretching their credibility a bit.



The $50m Profit target well and truly gone out the window ...even though they say underlying business should achieve this in 2021
The never announced profit target ‘well in excess of the $50m’ obviously just a tease
Big global acquisitions put on the back burner for now as things are just too expensive (implies thl current value is just too high as well)
Nobody wanted to pay over the odds for their NZ tourism businesses




Suppose investors need to keep the faith and continue to believe the th2 initiative reaps huge rewards in due course after a period of significant amounts of cash being pumped into it

But I fear that ‘immediate’ and ‘decisive’ reviews generally don’t have good outcomes ...esp when a capital review are also mentioned in the same sentence

Hope the bargain hunters did get a bargain on Thursday

[winner69]

Always interesting to track share price relative to profitability. Here’s chart updated with F19 eps of 20 cents included

[Leftfield]

Good chart winner... thanks for posting, quite revealing.

Looks like the SP has some downside yet.

[Beagle]

thl must be stretching their credibility a bit.



The $50m Profit target well and truly gone out the window ...even though they say underlying business should achieve this in 2021
The never announced profit target ‘well in excess of the $50m’ obviously just a tease
Big global acquisitions put on the back burner for now as things are just too expensive (implies thl current value is just too high as well)
Nobody wanted to pay over the odds for their NZ tourism businesses




Suppose investors need to keep the faith and continue to believe the th2 initiative reaps huge rewards in due course after a period of significant amounts of cash being pumped into it

But I fear that ‘immediate’ and ‘decisive’ reviews generally don’t have good outcomes ...esp when a capital review are also mentioned in the same sentence

Hope the bargain hunters did get a bargain on Thursday

Very telling that they're no longer talking about $50m plus.
They're really looking out of their depth with the U.S. operations and especially TH2 which looks like a classic tech company, invest squillions and cross your fingers and hope.
What exactly is their strategy to get a return from TH2 ? To my mind this has never been communicated to the market.
All those dividends they've been paying out over recent years as you've astutely reminded us have been paid while debt has been ballooning so dividend yield just like the $50m the yield looks like some disingenuous illusion to get people of board does it not ?
How big a capital raise do they need in your opinion mate ?
EPS of 20 cps on $25m,...I really struggle to see even $3.00 in this now and even then a forward PE of 15 when there's clearly major surgery required looks fairly optimistic.
Probably time for Rob Campbell to reduce his workload this year given his age and the amount of weight he's carrying.
I wouldn't mind wagering a few bob he'll be stepping down from his role at THL in the next year or two.

[nzsharetrade]

not sure if CITIC Group Corporation still interested this business.

[iceman]

not sure if CITIC Group Corporation still interested this business.

I doubt very much they Will be interested in the US part of the business right now !

[Balance]

not sure if CITIC Group Corporation still interested this business.

Better hope they still are if you are a shareholder!

[Justin]

Will Citic start selling if they are not interested any more？

[Beagle]

Will Citic start selling if they are not interested any more？

Will there be any sizeable buyers ?
What about if there's a major cash issue ? Will they participate or allow their stake to be diluted ?

[Justin]

I reckon that current SP almost equal to Citic’s cost price.

[Balance]

I reckon that current SP almost equal to Citic’s cost price.

According to records, they bought at around $4.80 to $5.00

[winner69]

Will there be any sizeable buyers ?
What about if there's a major cash issue ? Will they participate or allow their stake to be diluted ?


According to records, they bought at around $4.80 to $5.00

Seems that was the case

So they under water now ...might need to average down?

Probably participated in last week’s DRIP as well ....that was at $4.92 ...bit of a bugger that was

[winner69]

Hey Balance, remember when those Aussies made an offer of $2.80 for thl in 2007

The independent adviser’s report said it was worth over $3 and shareholders didn’t support the offer.

A lot of water has gone under the bridge in the last 12 years hasn’t it.

That offer was for $277m and market cap now $523m ....so market cap gone up 5%/6% pa ...doesn’t seem much does it.

[Beagle]

Hey Balance, remember when those Aussies made an offer of $2.80 for thl in 2007

The independent adviser’s report said it was worth over $3 and shareholders didn’t support the offer.

A lot of water has gone under the bridge in the last 12 years hasn’t it.

That offer was for $277m and market cap now $523m ....so market cap gone up 5%/6% pa ...doesn’t seem much does it.

Maybe all its really worth all these years later. Talk about an American fishing expedition gone wrong !!

[winner69]

‘earnings ‘recession’ Usually apply to markets but it seems a good term to use in respect of thl current performance.

The ‘recession’ is so deep though some would call it a depression

[see weed]

What's all the fuss about. Look on the bright side. SP already up 26c from 3.85 low. Who was lucky enough to get in at 3.85?;). I see an uptrend forming in the last 25 minutes:t_up:.
Sold those shares bought last Thursday. All out now, but am surprised they let me sell them, owning for less than one business day. I thought you had to be registered at link services or something before you could sell.

[couta1]

Sold those shares bought last Thursday. All out now, but am surprised they let me sell them, owning for less than one business day. I thought you had to be registered at link services or something before you could sell. No you can sell any share you buy straight away.

[Oliver Mander]

Have sold out my holding completely now, having been invested since $2.70. I signalled my concerns at the time of the TH2 announcement (change to core business etc), but kept most as I felt it was still well-managed. Disappointed at the announcement last week, will watch from the sidelines a little. Most frustrating.

[iceman]

Have sold out my holding completely now, having been invested since $2.70. I signalled my concerns at the time of the TH2 announcement (change to core business etc), but kept most as I felt it was still well-managed. Disappointed at the announcement last week, will watch from the sidelines a little. Most frustrating.

And herein lies my problem and reason I´m totally sold out. We all knew the TH2 was a diversion from core business and came with risk. Some of us liked it and some didn´t. However, I think we were all caught out with the big bad failure of the core business in the US that they have just admitted and told us they don´t yet know how to fix !!

[winner69]

I reckon there’s plenty of investors who still love thl and we’ll see the share price back over 5 bucks before too long.

Sold down to 430 when guidance for F19 reduced to $32m odd and then sold down to 420 when guidance reduced to around to $25m

Shows resilience and the believers in Robs vitality will see the share price head back up again.

[Beagle]

And herein lies my problem and reason I´m totally sold out. We all knew the TH2 was a diversion from core business and came with risk. Some of us liked it and some didn´t. However, I think we were all caught out with the big bad failure of the core business in the US that they have just admitted and told us they don´t yet know how to fix !!

In my opinion the nature of the business changed, (higher gearing and higher risk) when they acquired the American operations. The Trump effect was something I expressed concern about early on and I believe this is one of the underlying causes of the decline in the profitability of the American operations. TH2 looks like another fiasco.

I disagree Winner with your latest post and think your original call about dividends being effectively paid from raising debt, (something that has been happening for years) is the right one. I see this slow motion train wreck playing out over a number of years with the potential at some stage for Rob Campbell to want to reduce his workload. The systemic issue with very slow used campervan sales could take years to get sorted out and may require a fundamental shift in their business plan to run used campers a lot longer and employ considerable numbers of new mechanics to deal with the deeper cycle maintenance requirements. If you can't sell old campers the only way out of that hole is to keep running them and stop capex on so many new ones, (probably what their capex review will come up with).

[Oliver Mander]

I reckon there’s plenty of investors who still love thl and we’ll see the share price back over 5 bucks before too long.

Sold down to 430 when guidance for F19 reduced to $32m odd and then sold down to 420 when guidance reduced to around to $25m

Shows resilience and the believers in Robs vitality will see the share price head back up again.

i think I want to see the evidence before buying again. Agree its a cautious approach...but their recent track record supports my approach at this point.

[Balance]

I reckon there’s plenty of investors who still love thl and we’ll see the share price back over 5 bucks before too long.

Sold down to 430 when guidance for F19 reduced to $32m odd and then sold down to 420 when guidance reduced to around to $25m

Shows resilience and the believers in Robs vitality will see the share price head back up again.

The way to assess THL now imo is to look at the Australasian operations without the losses and distractions of the US.

So what will it cost THL to jettison the US operations and refocus back to Australasia?

[sb9]

Drifting lower after that initial support following downgrade...$3.50 in the medium term or lower?

[minimoke]

Well, I'm out today. All sold out. And at a bit of a loss. My own fault totally. Missed my stop loss, got lazy, hoped for a bounce that didn't happen. Loss mitigated by additional shares in DRP but still a loss all the same.

Confidence gone in THL to recover. I reckon once they unravel their US sales there will be more problems. I'm a tad cross that they could mention in the Feb update "Vehicle sales in the USA, in particular, have been weakacross the industry but we do not see that as anongoing issue" and then a month later say "The primary reason for the revised guidance is that the vehicle sales market in the USA has continued to deteriorate and thl's expectations for the financial year are now substantially below previous forecasts." Piss poor management and misleading information is the best I can say. Which indicates to me they have lost total sight of the ball.

That coupled with their totally unknown venture into TOR makes them a very high risk company to be in my portfolio.
I'm not adverse to risk so will put part of these proceeds onto a local company.

[JeremyALD]

Personally I think Rob has taken far too much on. Being chairman of three major companies is far too much, especially as he is not getting any younger!

THL was tracking well for 50m NPAT as they had promised for a number of years, then despite a rocky environment for worldwide tourism they seem to have taken on increased risk and debt. The USA aquisition has clearly not gone according to plan, and then trying to sell part of their successful NZ business seems questionable at this point.

Why can't businesses just stick to what they are good at and maximise performance in their current markets before looking for new ones?

[mondograss]

Also pulled my last $70k out of THL recently but luckily still for a decent profit. Tempted to split it between SUM and HGH.

[Beagle]

Personally I think Rob has taken far too much on. Being chairman of three major companies is far too much, especially as he is not getting any younger!

THL was tracking well for 50m NPAT as they had promised for a number of years, then despite a rocky environment for worldwide tourism they seem to have taken on increased risk and debt. The USA aquisition has clearly not gone according to plan, and then trying to sell part of their successful NZ business seems questionable at this point.

Why can't businesses just stick to what they are good at and maximise performance in their current markets before looking for new ones?

Feel sorry for you guys. One thing is that Rob was looking in quite good shape at yesterday's SUM annual meeting from cutting a quite noticeably more portly figure last year. Good effort to lose that much apparent weight and inspiration for SUM other oldish dog on here too I reckon lol.
I think SUM of the younger directors do a lot of the heavy lifting at SUM...very capable board in my opinion and he did express his thanks to such a capable board for their support last year so he obviously feels well supported but I digress and yes, as already posted, I think THL should have simply stuck to their knitting.
USA looking increasingly like an expensive, risky and unproductive fishing expedition.

[RupertBear]

Feel sorry for you guys. One thing is that Rob was looking in quite good shape at yesterday's SUM annual meeting from cutting a quite noticeably more portly figure last year. Good effort to lose that much apparent weight and inspiration for SUM other oldish dog on here too I reckon lol.

Hope it is a healthy weight loss and he isnt sick or under too much stress

[Beagle]

Hope it is a healthy weight loss and he isnt sick or under too much stress

Yeap, he looks very good and healthy for his age now. Couple of well respected and massively qualified Doctor's on the board probably had a quiet word or two in his ear :)

[bull....]

profit down grade from atl apollo in aus

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190502/pdf/444sbm2nhvtdrd.pdf

[dreamcatcher]

profit down grade from atl apollo in aus

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190502/pdf/444sbm2nhvtdrd.pdf

Apollo plunged 22c or 26% since yesterdays 86c....... glad I don't hold