THL - Tourism Holdings

[Beagle]

profit down grade from atl apollo in aus

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190502/pdf/444sbm2nhvtdrd.pdf

Caveat, I don't know the company at all BUT it occurs to me that mid point of guidance at $18.5m is not to bad and not materially different to FY18 at $19.2m.
The drop today to 65 cents per share puts them on a FY19 PE of just 6.5. This should give THL shareholders cause for very deep thought because at the lower end of guidance THL is forecast to earn just 20 cps so if they were on the same multiple as Apollo (ATL) fair value for THL would be just $1.30 !
I'd be schooling up on ATL if I were interested in this sector. TA looks shocking for ATL so I'd be looking for a confirmed bottom (as I would be with TA for THL) if I was going fishing in this sector.

[Arbroath]

Caveat, I don't know the company at all BUT it occurs to me that mid point of guidance at $18.5m is not to bad and not materially different to FY18 at $19.2m.
The drop today to 65 cents per share puts them on a FY19 PE of just 6.5. This should give THL shareholders cause for very deep thought because at the lower end of guidance THL is forecast to earn just 20 cps so if they were on the same multiple as Apollo (ATL) fair value for THL would be just $1.30 !
I'd be schooling up on ATL if I were interested in this sector. TA looks shocking for ATL so I'd be looking for a confirmed bottom (as I would be with TA for THL) if I was going fishing in this sector.

Beagle,

Apollo is much more highly geared therefore more risky (Debt/ebitda at FY18 THL 2.0x v Apollo at 3.8x). Also THL has other more stable cash generating tourism businesses to support its RV businesses. Not saying THL is value here at all but its not a good comparison to Apollo which has expanded more aggressively than THL. Maybe THL heads towards $3.00 or so until/unless they can stem the US bleeding....but Apollo if things get worse could go bankrupt imho.

[IAK]

Tourism Holdings now at $4.28 recovering somewhat from the low of $3.85 in early May. Someone is still keen on them.

[SilverBack]

I have lost the link to the article but during my browsing with a US based site, I picked up that the RV market generally in the US has been having a bad time and so it is not just THL (may have been Bloomberg). Whether they want to continue in that space is still a decision that they need to make of course.

[nizzy]

Winnebago had a poor sales year (sell RVs, not rental) & all major US car companies reporting prolonged downturn in vehicle sales.

[Leftfield]

Winnebago had a poor sales year (sell RVs, not rental) & all major US car companies reporting prolonged downturn in vehicle sales.

Crikey! Careful. Don't say that over on the TNR thread! :cool:

[glennj]

I sold half my THL holdings in the low $4's to lock in profits and make the remainder of the useful sized holding an almost "free hold". Sure enough after selling a minor recovery has taken place but you can't dwell on such things. The Roadtrippers joint ventures in Aus and USA made me a little uneasy as did a number of other things. I'll hold my remaining shares for the moment and watch with interest how this aspect of the business and some other things that are not so rosy e.g. resales pan out!

[RTM]

Winnebago had a poor sales year (sell RVs, not rental) & all major US car companies reporting prolonged downturn in vehicle sales.

If you buy into the LYFT / UBER spin the world is on the verge of transition from car owning to car sharing. Autonomous cars.....5 years away ? …..will accelerate that trend. Personally I see major societal ramifications of such a move. And in general I don't like them. Time will tell I guess.

[Leftfield]

If you buy into the LYFT / UBER spin the world is on the verge of transition from car owning to car sharing. Autonomous cars.....5 years away ? …..will accelerate that trend. Personally I see major societal ramifications of such a move. And in general I don't like them. Time will tell I guess.

Good post.......and don't forget ebikes and scooters......all with implications for companies like TNR and THL etc.

[SilverBack]

International traffic at Auckland Airport grew at 1.1% in the quarter ending 31 March, a sharp drop from 3.5% in the first half, while Sydney Airport saw similar weakness in its traffic movements with international passenger traffic up just 0.7% in the March quarter, well below the 2019 forecast for 3.6%. The slowdown has obvious implications for THL.

[winner69]

Good US business not broken / might be a bit of drag on growth through 2020 / all honky dory after that

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/335062/300520.pdf

And guidance is unchanged ...relief for many

[percy]

Good US business not broken / might be a bit of drag on growth through 2020 / all honky dory after that

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/335062/300520.pdf

And guidance is unchanged ...relief for many

Their business model may still be intact,but lack of used camper van sales has put a big dent in it.
I notice ATL have the same issues in both USA and Australia.

[BlackPeter]

Good US business not broken / might be a bit of drag on growth through 2020 / all honky dory after that

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/335062/300520.pdf

And guidance is unchanged ...relief for many

I suppose you mean "Good (that the ) US business (is) not broken" vs "Good US business ... not broken"?

Not quite sure though their presentation would help me to draw any of these two potential conclusions.

While they say that their strategy and direction is right - their buy / rent / sell model appears to be badly broken and they even admit that it won't get better for the next 12 months. What's supposed to be happening afterwards?

The market is already saturated with used campervans and in 12 months the sugar rush of Trump's temporary tax cuts will be over as well. Less purchase power in a saturated market does not bode well for good business.

The only thing they seemed to have done so far in the US business is reshuffling deckchairs. I doubt this will help the business long term ... first they would need to realise that their strategy and direction is broken, before they can fix it.

[Beagle]

Seasonal uplift in demand has not occurred. Important to realise that lots of purchase decisions are usually made in late winter / early spring so its clear many consumers have pulled their heads in and are sitting on their hands.

$25m = 20 cps. Historically THL has traded at a peak PE of 18 when they were growing profits strongly and everything was working well. $3.60 would be the share price absolutely maxed out in terms of fair value from my perspective. $3.00 would appear to me more appropriate until they can prove that there hasn't been a systemic change in American consumer behaviour.

They continue to pay high dividends effectively out of rising debt level's which is quite an "interesting" strategy.

If they are only selling ~ half the campers they used too then I think its fair to say that the basis behind their business model has fundamentally changed.

Parking up 80 brand new campers in storage is analogous to an airline parking up planes on the ground...and in my view gives a valuable insight into exactly how much business conditions have changed in the US. It will all get better in 12 months time though so no worries...or will it ?

I think its quite clear they are pulling the levers they can over there but things have changed quite considerably from where they were.

[whatsup]

Seasonal uplift in demand has not occurred. Important to realise that lots of purchase decisions are usually made in late winter / early spring so its clear many consumers have pulled their heads in and are sitting on their hands.

$25m = 20 cps. Historically THL has traded at a peak PE of 18 when they were growing profits strongly and everything was working well. $3.60 would be the share price absolutely maxed out in terms of fair value from my perspective. $3.00 would appear to me more appropriate until they can prove that there hasn't been a systemic change in American consumer behaviour.

They continue to pay high dividends effectively out of rising debt level's which is quite an "interesting" strategy.

If they are only selling ~ half the campers they used too then I think its fair to say that the basis behind their business model has fundamentally changed.

Parking up 80 brand new campers in storage is analogous to an airline parking up planes on the ground...and in my view gives a valuable insight into exactly how much business conditions have changed in the US. It will all get better in 12 months time though so no worries...or will it ?

I think its quite clear they are pulling the levers they can over there but things have changed quite considerably from where they were.

Totally agree, paying divs out of debt is what Brierley did in the 80's imho and where did that end ?

[Beagle]

Their business model may still be intact,but lack of used camper van sales has put a big dent in it.
I notice ATL have the same issues in both USA and Australia.

I think its a world wide problem and indicative of a fundamental change in consumer behaviour. As Tourism has grown and grown all these companies have been putting more and more new capacity into the market sailing along blissfully assuming that the demand for used campers will also grow at the same rate. Maybe consumers are thinking rather than investing say $100,000 in a decent used camper that I might use for a couple of weeks a year I'll simply rent instead because its far more efficient to do so ? Where does that leave THL's business model in terms of fleet disposal ?

[percy]

Maybe their business model is more "broken" than just "dented".?

[oldtech]

I think its a world wide problem and indicative of a fundamental change in consumer behaviour. As Tourism has grown and grown all these companies have been putting more and more new capacity into the market sailing along blissfully assuming that the demand for used campers will also grow at the same rate. Maybe consumers are thinking rather than investing say $100,000 in a decent used camper that I might use for a couple of weeks a year I'll simply rent instead because its far more efficient to do so ? Where does that leave THL's business model in terms of fleet disposal ?

I have been wondering for some time if, as you say, there is a fundamental change in consumer behaviour. I get the feeling that people are (a) trying to do more things and see more places in a relatively short amount of time, and (b) moving more towards convenience and comforts, which they are happier to pay for. Are tourists finding the ready availability of hotel rooms and AirBnB easier and more convenient?

I also wonder if, particularly here in NZ, maybe the anecdotes about councils clamping down on freedom camping are turning people away.

Just my random thoughts ...

Disc ... got out in February

[Drew95]

Just a bit of anecdotal evidence. I just bought a campervan, and there were hundreds to choose from. I ended up buying a (non-ex-rental) with 40,000km on the dial for $76,000. The new equivalent is $155,000. I went to one rental company, who were trying to sell off very similar, but much lower spec'd vans, with 200,000km on the dial for $90,000. And they had 60 to choose from. That was one rental co. And down the road were several more. My impression after doing about a year of research was that the market was flooded, and prices would need to come down simply because of supply and demand.

[Leftfield]

Maybe their business model is more "broken" than just "dented".?

Totally agree. There have been warning signs for some time and their digital initiative is now looking even more risky.

Happy to be out of this one.

[Beagle]

Maybe their business model is more "broken" than just "dented".?

Used to be very good mates with the accountant for Henderson Rental cars and what he kept telling me is that rental car firms must buy well, rent well, maintain well and re-sell well.
If any one part of the 4 main legs of that models fails the business becomes like a 3 legged chair...very unstable.

We're discussed the economics of ownership before and unless one is intending to get a really substantial amount of use from their camper its better to rent.

CEO of Riviera N.Z. told me that since the GFC people are far more careful with their money now in terms of where they tie up their capital. The typical camper buyer is probably a baby boomer who is concerned whether they have enough to retire on and putting ~ $100K into a good used camper isn't an especially good idea for most.

I think the used campervan problem will persist for the foreseeable future. THL's implied claim this problem is fixable in the near term lacks credibility in my opinion.
More likely they will have to substantially alter their business model and keep campervans in work much longer. Hope they have lots of good mechanics.

[Beagle]

Just a bit of anecdotal evidence. I just bought a campervan, and there were hundreds to choose from. I ended up buying a (non-ex-rental) with 40,000km on the dial for $76,000. The new equivalent is $155,000. I went to one rental company, who were trying to sell off very similar, but much lower spec'd vans, with 200,000km on the dial for $90,000. And they had 60 to choose from. That was one rental co. And down the road were several more. My impression after doing about a year of research was that the market was flooded, and prices would need to come down simply because of supply and demand.
Welcome to the forum and thank you for sharing your experience.

[RTM]

Used to be very good mates with the accountant for Henderson Rental cars and what he kept telling me is that rental car firms must buy well, rent well, maintain well and re-sell well.
If any one part of the 4 main legs of that models fails the business becomes like a 3 legged chair...very unstable.

We're discussed the economics of ownership before and unless one is intending to get a really substantial amount of use from their camper its better to rent.

CEO of Riviera N.Z. told me that since the GFC people are far more careful with their money now in terms of where they tie up their capital. The typical camper buyer is probably a baby boomer who is concerned whether they have enough to retire on and putting ~ $100K into a good used camper isn't an especially good idea for most.

I think the used campervan problem will persist for the foreseeable future. THL's implied claim this problem is fixable in the near term lacks credibility in my opinion.
More likely they will have to substantially alter their business model and keep campervans in work much longer. Hope they have lots of good mechanics.

My brother in law who is retired just sold a Taupo property and to our surprised has ploughed some of the money into a new campervan. I think a percentage of retirees who sell their high valued Auckland properties will do this so they can enjoy the freedom of visiting places within NZ whenever they want. And so the industry will benefit long term from the tsunami of retirees coming, in the same way as SUM other companies. May be some light at the end of the tunnel.

I do agree that this won't be a quick fix.

[Drew95]

Welcome to the forum and thank you for sharing your experience.

Thanks Beagle. Been a long term watcher on and off over the years - thought I should start contributing what little knowledge I have.

And BTW, I came very close to buying into EVO, but after reading the entire ST thread from day one, and reading their Annual reports, and especially taking into account your wisdom, I decided it was not a good idea. So thanks.

[Beagle]

Thanks Beagle. Been a long term watcher on and off over the years - thought I should start contributing what little knowledge I have.

And BTW, I came very close to buying into EVO, but after reading the entire ST thread from day one, and reading their Annual reports, and especially taking into account your wisdom, I decided it was not a good idea. So thanks.

You're welcome and I am pleased to have helped :) Hope you enjoy your campervan, sounds like the ex rentals are way too overpriced and very high mileage !

[golden city]

Another downgrade for apollo Thl might be able to buy Apollo cheap for a merger maybe

[bull....]

Another downgrade for apollo Thl might be able to buy Apollo cheap for a merger maybe

apollo getting smashed , be waiting for the next thl downgrade

[winner69]

Another downgrade for apollo Thl might be able to buy Apollo cheap for a merger maybe

Could will do ..if shareholders fronted up with more cash

Apollo have many of the same problems as thl ...wonder if thl will come out with a downgrade in due course as well.

[golden city]

Hard to say because the whole rv market looks sudden turn from the trump China war that kills business confidence and world growth that people delay spending

[Beagle]

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190529/pdf/445gf15mqljrmj.pdf

WOW this makes SOMBRE reading for this sector. I was a bit tempted to have a little dabble in Apollo after the recent downgrade at about 65 cents, just 20 thousand or so as a cheap punt but thankfully an old dog can learn new tricks and I brought up the chart and it put me off. Free warning for THL: shareholders, this sector is tough 10580
You'd have to be a "braver" dog than I to buy on a downtrend like that !

[golden city]

I think it caught the management by surprised too that suddenly turns so negative the whole sector but it could create opportunities to consolidating the sector again. Just to see who have the bigger pockets

[winner69]

I think it caught the management by surprised too that suddenly turns so negative the whole sector but it could create opportunities to consolidating the sector again. Just to see who have the bigger pockets

Do thl shareholders have deep pockets ...or inclined to front up with some bucks.

Thl acquisition record not been too good of late has it.

[Beagle]

Once today's fall is factored into this chart it will make for a good resemblance of Mt Taranaki 10581
I suspect that those that hold it another year will find on a 3 year view the chart will look even more like Mt Taranaki 10582
I think this is going to go down under $3 in due course.

[percy]

While ATL's looks like Everest's south side.

[Beagle]

While ATL's looks like Everest's south side.

Been a few death's there lately :eek2:

[percy]

Sheer madness.

[IAK]

Been a few death's there lately :eek2:
They've been dying up there since the the first British expeditions in the 1920's. Accelerated in the past 20 years with commercial tours, check out the excellent documentary
'Storm over Everest 1996' in which NZer Rob Hall tragically passed away.

[couta1]

They've been dying up there since the the first British expeditions in the 1920's. Accelerated in the past 20 years with commercial tours, check out the excellent documentary
'Storm over Everest 1996' in which NZer Rob Hall tragically passed away. And Everest is only ranked 9th on the most dangerous climbs list.

[Beagle]

Sheer madness.

Especially for anyone looking for a serene get away from it all mountain climb lol https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/05/24/mount-everest-has-gotten-so-crowded-that-climbers-are-perishing-traffic-jams/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.5b8d678a1b99 You'd have to have rocks in your head...

[JeremyALD]

What on earth happened to ATL. They were doing so well post IPO. Personally I think it's just another example of bitting off more than you can chew. The amount of aquisitions they made was phenomenal when you consider each business aquired would have it's own culture, challenges and opportunities.

[Baa_Baa]

It's almost a year since the sh1t hit the fan as far as the SP is concerned, even very very simple TA would have exited this, like really simple stuff maybe acting on a moving average breakdown. No need even for any macro economics or company fundamentals to confuse things, this screamed GET OUT ages ago. The 200DMA is a safer indicator for the conservative who don't like acting too hastily on SP movements. They'd be gone too, some time ago.

[percy]

What on earth happened to ATL. They were doing so well post IPO. Personally I think it's just another example of bitting off more than you can chew. The amount of aquisitions they made was phenomenal when you consider each business aquired would have it's own culture, challenges and opportunities.

Most probably paying too much for Western Australia's big RV seller, and carrying a good amount of debt has not worked out for them.

[winner69]

Jeez ...shareprice down to 370 and back to where it was 2 years or so ago.

No worries ...as recently it has always recovered after a fall ....will again this time, won’t it

[Beagle]

Jeez ...shareprice down to 370 and back to where it was 2 years or so ago.

No worries ...as recently it has always recovered after a fall ....will again this time, won’t it

She's going down to under $3 in due course, you read it from me first. Camper sales are going to tank even worse as consumer confidence slides to fresh lows. The chances of a trade deal between China and America are now looking extremely slim. Chinese threatening to withhold rare earth's and cripple America's tech sector...Its going to get ugly ! Consumers will pull their heads in on large ticket discretionary purchases in droves. Disposal of used campervans is going to go from problematic to highly problematic to chronically problematic, that's my prediction.

[bottomfeeder]

Always easy to make bad predictions, I do it myself. Harder to make predictions that show some sort of upside to any SP. Maybe its a sign of the times everything seems to be slipping these days.

China is a big bully, rips you off and when you try to stop it, it reacts by changing things that justifies the rip off and wants to keep doing it. China does not sell its rare earth minerals for free, they will feel it. The US could shut china down quite quickly. Then there will be a new order in the world. This will bring in an unprecedented demand for used campers, as no one will be able to afford a home. What a scenario. Could happen haha. Heres hoping, just bought a parcel of THL.

[winner69]

Book value is just over $2.00 a share

Heading to making 7% to 8% return on invested capital this year so unlikely to cover their cost of capital....which says it shouldn’t really trade much above book value

So at present (in financial theory at least) a $1.70 per share is what the market is expecting them to make in the way of excessive returns over their cost of capital. Are they actually performing that well?

[winner69]

thl has a certain attraction for many punters ....they solidly support the share price so it won’t fall too far.

No worries

[RupertBear]

Book value is just over $2.00 a share

Heading to making 7% to 8% return on invested capital this year so unlikely to cover their cost of capital....which says it shouldn’t really trade much above book value

So at present (in financial theory at least) a $1.70 per share is what the market is expecting them to make in the way of excessive returns over their cost of capital. Are they actually performing that well?

Well thats quite a depressing post Winner! :( I prefer the No Worries Winner! :D

[RupertBear]

thl has a certain attraction for many punters ....they solidly support the share price so it won’t fall too far.

Phew thats sounding better :)

[winner69]

Phew thats sounding better :)

There’s often a big difference between theory and reality (driven by rationale / irrational investing behaviour.)

[Beagle]

There’s often a big difference between theory and reality (driven by rationale / irrational investing behaviour.)

I remember the bad old days when THL were considered a cyclical tourism company and traded on a PE commensurate with such of about 10.
Funnily enough if it goes there on $25m earnings which is 20 cps you'll be a real guru and get your $2. I wouldn't be surprised sometime next year. Next trade weapon to be rolled out by the Chinese could be their tourism spend and I think to some extent that's already started. I think its going to be a very cold winter...

[winner69]

I remember the bad old days when THL were considered a cyclical tourism company and traded on a PE commensurate with such of about 10.
Funnily enough if it goes there on $25m earnings which is 20 cps you'll be a real guru and get your $2. I wouldn't be surprised sometime next year. Next trade weapon to be rolled out by the Chinese could be their tourism spend and I think to some extent that's already started. I think its going to be a very cold winter...

Still a lot of growth factored into current share price.

Longer things stay bad takeover might be best outcome.

But as long as they continue to pay big divie no worries

[bottomfeeder]

Sold down some of my parcel right at 4.30, just to average down my cost. Not confident just where this one is going. But I like the volatility.

[RTM]

I remember the bad old days when THL were considered a cyclical tourism company and traded on a PE commensurate with such of about 10.
Funnily enough if it goes there on $25m earnings which is 20 cps you'll be a real guru and get your $2. I wouldn't be surprised sometime next year. Next trade weapon to be rolled out by the Chinese could be their tourism spend and I think to some extent that's already started. I think its going to be a very cold winter...

If China and USA both really stick to their guns...well...it'll be a lot more than THL that will be enjoying a very cold winter.
Lucky Jacinda gave me some money to buy firewood.....but that's another thread I guess.

[winner69]

Pretty solid finish to the day ...esp after it seemed to be free fall earlier

Many punters love thl

[Beagle]

If China and USA both really stick to their guns...well...it'll be a lot more than THL that will be enjoying a very cold winter.
Pretty much how I see it going. No firewood from Jacinda for me but luckily I have several power companies and a 15.3 cents per KW hour deal from Meridian with their seriously overfull lakes so I should do okay from them and be able to keep the kennel warm....

[nizzy]

2019 on Everest is safer than say 1999, and way safer than the early expeditions. The top guide companies are v experienced with strong backup. But recent cheap operators cut corners and take all punters regardless of experience. So when its turns tough the risk explodes. The crowded days are unusual and a result of tight weather windows. Interesting that top NZ guide Lydia Bradey made successful ascent from Tibet (Northern side) on the same day with her (very fit) client. They and a group of route setters from China were completely alone on that side while there was havoc on south ridge.

[RTM]

2019 on Everest is safer than say 1999, and way safer than the early expeditions. The top guide companies are v experienced with strong backup. But recent cheap operators cut corners and take all punters regardless of experience. So when its turns tough the risk explodes. The crowded days are unusual and a result of tight weather windows. Interesting that top NZ guide Lydia Bradey made successful ascent from Tibet (Northern side) on the same day with her (very fit) client. They and a group of route setters from China were completely alone on that side while there was havoc on south ridge.

Did they get there using a camper van ?
Interesting post...thanks.

[nizzy]

Did they get there using a camper van ?
Interesting post...thanks.
:)
Disc: hold THL, unfortunately

[IAK]

Did they get there using a camper van ?
Interesting post...thanks.
Only to base camp then took the chair lift to the Hillary Step.

[upside_umop]

I remember the bad old days when THL were considered a cyclical tourism company and traded on a PE commensurate with such of about 10.
Funnily enough if it goes there on $25m earnings which is 20 cps you'll be a real guru and get your $2. I wouldn't be surprised sometime next year. Next trade weapon to be rolled out by the Chinese could be their tourism spend and I think to some extent that's already started. I think its going to be a very cold winter...

They are a cyclical tourism company.

[winner69]

They are a cyclical tourism company.

Yes, their business is cyclical ...and very capital intensive

Share price cyclicity dampened somewhat by them continuing to pay a 27 cent dividend no matter what

Promises of huge growth and hype also help the share price.

[Scrunch]

Yes, their business is cyclical ...and very capital intensive

Share price cyclicity dampened somewhat by them continuing to pay a 27 cent dividend no matter what

Promises of huge growth and hype also help the share price.

How capital intensive they are depends on your viewpoint. Their June 2018 accounts have a Total Assets/Revenue ratio of 1.38 ($341m revenue, $470m of assets). The higher this ratio, the more capital intensive. You only need to look at the retirement companies to see what being truely capital intensive looks like. For example SUM had a ratio of 20 in 2018 ($137m revenue, $2,766m of assets). Energy companies are also a lot more capital intensive despite paying substantial fees for transmission of electricity. For example Mercury energy had a ratio of 3.37 in 2018 ($1.8b revenue, $6.1b of assets).

[Beagle]

They are a cyclical tourism company.

I agree 100%...its just that there's been a very long upcycle which may have the makings of starting to finally reverse. A lot of people have got confused, (in my opinion) and have been valuing based on it being a growth company or even worse, a tech company.

[winner69]

I’ve often read on Sharetrader that share Prices follow earnings

Well, thl is running true to that thinking as chart shows

Wonder if takeover and/or growth premiums are built into the share price at the moment ..at a PE of about 19 you’d think that there is

[winner69]

That Apollo in Aust share price still going down .....

......market cap now $70m


Would thl want to add to their own woes by making a play.

[winner69]

thl must have been expecting great things for Road Bear buying all these vehicles -


• Approximately 80 new vehicle purchases initially intended for Road Bear in FY2019 will remain in our storage facility in Middlebury. This will reduce costs associated with holding this fleet because:
.... • The vehicles will not be registered until FY2020.
.... • Depreciation on these vehicles will be at a lower rate

[Beagle]

That Apollo in Aust share price still going down .....

......market cap now $70m


Would thl want to add to their own woes by making a play.

Apollo from memory are the second biggest operator here so Com Com could have a problem with any possible takeover.
Current year PE now just 3.9 and in this announcement they say Global market conditions have deteriorated in May https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20190529/pdf/445gf15mqljrmj.pdf
Makes THL's PE look more than a little "interesting"
"Interesting" times for THL when they park up that much stock. As Balance famously said, downgrades usually comes in 3's...
THL trading on a current year PE of 19 assuming they can make their $25m profit...a higher PE than when they were growing strongly and everything in the sector smelt like Roses...Hmmmm

[percy]

I have both THL and ATL on watch lists.
However, I think it will be some time away before I consider buying either.Improvement in the sale of used camper vans looks a long way off for both companies.
Debt could also be a worry with ATL.

[Beagle]

I agree 100%. The TA on both these says stay away. I'd want to see some TA encouragement before dipping my paws into either but I think ATL presents as an interesting opportunity and I note they manufacture RV's and operate in many countries so I would think some renationalization within their operations is pending.

[Drew95]

Just a bit of anecdotal evidence. I just bought a campervan, and there were hundreds to choose from. I ended up buying a (non-ex-rental) with 40,000km on the dial for $76,000. The new equivalent is $155,000. I went to one rental company, who were trying to sell off very similar, but much lower spec'd vans, with 200,000km on the dial for $90,000. And they had 60 to choose from. That was one rental co. And down the road were several more. My impression after doing about a year of research was that the market was flooded, and prices would need to come down simply because of supply and demand.

As confirmation of my own, and others, suspicions....from Appollo's (downwards) earnings guidance dated 29 May 2019. https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/ATL/02109851.pdf

"As sales volumes in May 2019 trended below our earlier expectations, the Group decided to accelerate ex-rental sales at a higher discount in the USA, which will have the benefit of reducing funds employed and holding costs." (bold, italics are mine).

Price dropped from 65c to 39c. 3 Directors buy 1 million + shares around 40c.

https://apollotourism.com/shareholder-centre/asx-announcements/

[winner69]

Interestingly tourism per se in NZ isn’t a ‘growth’ industry ......grows about at the rate of GDP

Maybe that’s why thl thought about global domination but that’s not working out too well either is it.




Chart from SRA

[Sideshow Bob]

Capital raising with HB Holdings (CITIC) at $4.04/share

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/336475

[winner69]

Capital raising with HB Holdings (CITIC) at $4.04/share

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/336475

And others at $3.40...1 for 9

[winner69]

I see guidance has sort of been lowered — from $25m to $28m to $25m to $27m

[percy]

Interesting noting THL are raising NZ $80 mil and the fact ATL's [Apollo Tourism] market cap is Au $70.7 mil.

[golden city]

It will be a good fit consolidated the nz au market plus Apollo got position in euro markets

[Benny1]

It will be a good fit consolidated the nz au market plus Apollo got position in euro markets

Can't see it happening though.. Would they get past the regulators on both sides of the Tasman?
Apollo carrying a lot of debt and have expanded probably too quickly..

[Leftfield]

The current capital raising moves may well be prudent, however I'm happy to watch this play out from the sidelines. GLH!

[Schrodinger]

What is the cash for? I had a quick look through the 2019 interim results, they didnt mention cash position ($90M sitting in CA) - didnt have time to ferrit through all the pages. They should include this as a minimum.

Is the new tech subsidiary draining money?

[BlackPeter]

What is the cash for? I had a quick look through the 2019 interim results, they didnt mention cash position ($90M sitting in CA) - didnt have time to ferrit through all the pages. They should include this as a minimum.

Is the new tech subsidiary draining money?

I suppose they need some money to fund their next dividend :p;

[Schrodinger]

I suppose they need some money to fund their next dividend :p;

I was hoping that wasnt that case =)

[winner69]

What is the cash for? I had a quick look through the 2019 interim results, they didnt mention cash position ($90M sitting in CA) - didnt have time to ferrit through all the pages. They should include this as a minimum.

Is the new tech subsidiary draining money?

They had $4.7m in cash at half year (part of the $90m)

[bottomfeeder]

Bit strange raising funds from shareholders without really hinting at what purpose it is planned to go to. Could be a black hole developing.

[Balance]

What is the cash for? I had a quick look through the 2019 interim results, they didnt mention cash position ($90M sitting in CA) - didnt have time to ferrit through all the pages. They should include this as a minimum.

Is the new tech subsidiary draining money?


Bit strange raising funds from shareholders without really hinting at what purpose it is planned to go to. Could be a black hole developing.

Net debt is what is pertinent - THL had $225m of net debts as at 31 December 2018.

Probably has increased higher since then as $12.5m of dividends were paid and THL (as W69 pointed out) has been using debts to pay dividends.

So the $90m raised is clearly to appease the banks.

[bottomfeeder]

Lets hope they retire debt. Why didnt they make that plain. Doing an Israel. Funds can go to anything they desire.

[winner69]

In the main announcement they did say what new capital was ...and expanded on this in presentation

Extract-
The equity capital raising will:
Create additional balance sheet headroom and provide thl with financial flexibility to undertake smaller bolton acquisitions without the need to raise additional equity capital, allowing it to more quickly respond to opportunistic situations as they arise;
Fund near term investment in travel technology opportunities through TH2; and
Reduce debt levels and leverage, which thl considers to be prudent at this time given headwinds in some markets (e.g. USA).

[winner69]

And thl going to help their CTIC get into RVs and take China by storm

[Lola]

What is the cash for? I had a quick look through the 2019 interim results, they didnt mention cash position ($90M sitting in CA) - didnt have time to ferrit through all the pages. They should include this as a minimum.

Is the new tech subsidiary draining money?


Nup...they are planning for the rainy day. The booms over...ask Chrissy Luxon if you need to know.

[iceman]

They should be suspending dividends

[Scrunch]

The current capital raising moves may well be prudent, however I'm happy to watch this play out from the sidelines. GLH!

This seems well structured capital raising.

The ratio of 1:9 is fairly small so it shouldn't massively impact the share price. The 2 July record date gives shareholders an opportunity to adjust their holding pre ex date (if they wish to). 37.5% of the money had been raised at no discount to the previous close. There's a shortfall book build so that shareholders not taking up rights have a good chance of receiving some value from the rights. Retail and institution shareholders are treated equally. All shareholders that take up their full entitlement have access to participate in the shortfall book-build. While the discount to the theoretical ex price is quite large, this should have kept the underwriting fee smaller.

If part of the recent declines in share price were from the market being nervious about debt levels, this capital raise will help mitigate these concerns (unless all the money raised is spent on acquisions).

Disc - hold

[Scrunch]

This announcement also provides a minor update on TH2's likely value, in that its expected to break-even by 2022.

If this is realistic and achieved, it means the expensed contribution only exists for a few years and THL's share of these losses is easily financed by the additional cash raised.

Having turned around the expected 2020 pre-tax expense from start-up losses of US$17m (THL's share is $8.5m), its got to have either pruned the on-going cash burn or developed a fairly useful level of ongoing revenue.

The next wild-card is how much of the potential target market is necessary to get to break-even. If its quite a bit, then TH2 isn't really that valuable. If its only a small portion, continuing to capture more of the potential market will add revenue, few expenses and a lot of gross margin. In this scenario, the valuation of TH2 could be a lot, but more details are needed to quantify this.

THL's share price would then become Existing business * sensible PE + Half TH2. That half of TH2 addition could make the current share price look very cheap.

[RTM]

Nup...they are planning for the rainy day. The booms over...ask Chrissy Luxon if you need to know.

If THL can't make money from Tourism....then what's the point with having it as one of our bigger industries in NZ ? It certainly doesn't make NZ a better place to live in. Right up there with overstocking pastures by buying in Palm Kernal.
Night all.
RTM

[Schrodinger]

As reported in the NBR this is for CITIC (CHINA) to help with tourism flow. I also read about selling RV's to China. Keen on the inbound stuff (China tourists) but selling RV's in China?? I dont think they will be as dumb as Fonterra there (hopefully).

[BlackPeter]

As reported in the NBR this is for CITIC (CHINA) to help with tourism flow. I also read about selling RV's to China. Keen on the inbound stuff (China tourists) but selling RV's in China?? I dont think they will be as dumb as Fonterra there (hopefully).

What makes you hope that? China is a country where markets are relying on long term personal relationships of people bedded into the local culture who know each other well enough so that they know whom to trust and whom not. It is as well a market with plenty of high stakes corruption - forget to bribe one person and you never get the licence you need to run your business. Bribe the wrong person and you end up worst case as organ donor on death row. Most likely however they just would take your money - as they did with Fonterra (though a number of people got jailed and executed in this scandal and the whistleblower died under unclear circumstances - i.e. doing the "right thing" might kill you as well). Any company would need to invest at least a decade to untangle the net and be able to start playing it.

Why would we think THL has what it takes to play on this playing field instead of just being played?

[Schrodinger]

No idea just noted down some of the cap raise was for selling RV's in China. Seems weird use of money. Just trying to understand risk and why they think selling RV's is core.

[BlackPeter]

No idea just noted down some of the cap raise was for selling RV's in China. Seems weird use of money. Just trying to understand risk and why they think selling RV's is core.

Great question

[whatsup]

Q, Where do we think the S P will settle come the rights issue price and will S Hers sell in order to fund their rights down to what price ?

[bottomfeeder]

Desperate measures trying to sell RVs in china. Imported vehicles have forbidding tariffs, which only makes them available to the very rich. Just shows that thl is in more trouble than we know.

I think that they shoul have a share issue to repay all outstanding debt. Then vow to proceed with no debt for the future. I understand all the rhetoric as to why public companies have debt, but realistically they have access to shareholder funds, why pay interest, pay dividends. You might argue about the return on capital is higher than the interest payable. But this is certainly not always true in times of struggle.

[Scrunch]

No idea just noted down some of the cap raise was for selling RV's in China. Seems weird use of money. Just trying to understand risk and why they think selling RV's is core.

I didn't read it that way. They noted non-capital intensive RV opportunities in China. I took that to mean a potential JV type arrangement where THL provide expertise and run something in China but the capital for this comes from CITIC.

[golden city]

I think some of the people still thinking the 10 years ago China China has changed a lot the way to do business I fact it is more open and high tech than lots western counties now

[golden city]

The rv market is growing very quickly in China with The new generations

[BlackPeter]

I think some of the people still thinking the 10 years ago China China has changed a lot the way to do business I fact it is more open and high tech than lots western counties now

High Tech? - Absolutely. China's universities and research caught up quite rapidly. China produces per year I think 5 times as many science and engineering graduates than the US, and yes, many Chinese companies can well compete with Western companies. Huawei would be only one of them.

Open for business? Not so sure about that. IP theft in China is still ripe. Western companies can't be majority owner of Chinese companies and need to surrender IP if they want to manufacture in China. Corruption is still wide spread and bad for business: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2018/03/15/corruption-in-china-gets-stuck-half-way-between-the-worlds-best-and-worst; China is on rank 87 on the corruption hitlist (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index) - sure, not as bad as Somalia or Syria (both at the very end, rank 180 and 178), but far away from most Western countries we tend to do business in (NZ rank 2, UK and Germany rank 11 equal, Australia rank 13, US rank 22).

Apart from that - China is run by a government without respect for human rights of its citizens and visitors and they have a "justice system" which has nothing to do with "justice" - but everything with what the strongman and his party want. Get in their way and you are toast. Not ideal conditions to do business ...

[glennj]

I've now ditched the rest of my THL shares. Nearly every "Western" company doing business with mainland China finds all sorts of fish hooks end up detracting from the relationship. THL has been a successful investment for me but it is now time to put the money to work elsewhere as there are too many things making me uneasy.

[percy]

I've now ditched the rest of my THL shares. Nearly every "Western" company doing business with mainland China finds all sorts of fish hooks end up detracting from the relationship. THL has been a successful investment for me but it is now time to put the money to work elsewhere as there are too many things making me uneasy.

With your successful record of investing, I think all of us would be very interested to know where you put you THL money to work.

[glennj]

With your successful record of investing, I think all of us would be very interested to know where you put you THL money to work.

I'm of the opinion that most of the NZ market is fairly or overpriced at the moment. I'm still in the process of spending the proceeds of THL on a lowish liquidity utility type stock but am struggling to get enough at a price acceptable to me. I'm not getting a bargain but I think long term prospects for the stock in question are good and the net divs at my purchase prices are on a par or better than bond yields. That stock may be revealed when I get as many as I want. You seem to do well yourself Percy (I know we both took positions in EBO early on and likely hold other stocks in common)

THL may do well going forward but it is just a comfort thing taking my money out of that one for me. After a while you learn to trust instincts as well as your homework. If selling out is the wrong move in so far that THL is highly successful, I've still done very well for the period the stock was held and will have it re invested in something paying holding costs and with prospects. I had a similar dilemma to now when Nuplex was taken over and had too much cash and didn't think there were bargains about. Most of the money ended up in MFT at a price that hurt at the time but looking back that has gone more than ok!

[Schrodinger]

I've now ditched the rest of my THL shares. Nearly every "Western" company doing business with mainland China finds all sorts of fish hooks end up detracting from the relationship. THL has been a successful investment for me but it is now time to put the money to work elsewhere as there are too many things making me uneasy.

I did the opposite. Lets see what happens in the next few years...

[Schrodinger]

I didn't read it that way. They noted non-capital intensive RV opportunities in China. I took that to mean a potential JV type arrangement where THL provide expertise and run something in China but the capital for this comes from CITIC.

Yep and the vehicles are probably purchased by their JV partner after being imported etc so have entered into China from overseas or locally manufactured. So less capital outlay and a share of the revenues for providing IP. Will have to be careful they dont get moved aside after telling them how to do everything.

More interested in their tourism operations and vehicle rental business though. The number of Chinese tourists forecast for NZ is crazy.

[Balance]

High Tech? - Absolutely. China's universities and research caught up quite rapidly. China produces per year I think 5 times as many science and engineering graduates than the US, and yes, many Chinese companies can well compete with Western companies. Huawei would be only one of them.

Open for business? Not so sure about that. IP theft in China is still ripe. Western companies can't be majority owner of Chinese companies and need to surrender IP if they want to manufacture in China. Corruption is still wide spread and bad for business: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2018/03/15/corruption-in-china-gets-stuck-half-way-between-the-worlds-best-and-worst; China is on rank 87 on the corruption hitlist (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index) - sure, not as bad as Somalia or Syria (both at the very end, rank 180 and 178), but far away from most Western countries we tend to do business in (NZ rank 2, UK and Germany rank 11 equal, Australia rank 13, US rank 22).

Apart from that - China is run by a government without respect for human rights of its citizens and visitors and they have a "justice system" which has nothing to do with "justice" - but everything with what the strongman and his party want. Get in their way and you are toast. Not ideal conditions to do business ...

Indeed - visit China and one feels like NZ is in the dark ages when it comes to high tech - the latest technology being used in everything from AI to robotics to drones to payment systems (WeChat & AliPay) to transport (superfast trains connecting all the main centres made possible by world class communication system - vs poor old Auckland & Wellington still using copper wires) etc etc.

As for business, do not even think of doing business there - unless you are local and connected, you will end up like Fonterra. That's simply a fact which applies in the US too - how many Kiwi companies have succeeded in US?

However, before we throw stones at China for its commercial & regulatory practices, let's put things in perspective - no less than NZ & Australia used to impose exactly the same requirements on foreign companies wanting to access the NZ & Oz markets - cars, electronics, banking, meat exports etc etc etc. I know because I have been in all those industries so please do not try and argue this point. It cost NZ very dearly and we are still paying.

As for human rights and justice system - try this one - https://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/113763888/drugaddicted-taranaki-woman-jailed-for-neglect-and-abuse-of-children

Excerpt : "The three girls were aged between three and six when the offending first came to light. The girls are now 12 and 13, with the oldest of the three dying two years ago."

9 long years of ongoing and horrendous child abuse until one died (suicide) before real action is taken. :mad ;:

Feeling proud to be a Kiwi with our justice & child welfare system?:t_down:

[BlackPeter]

...

As for human rights and justice system - try this one - https://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/113763888/drugaddicted-taranaki-woman-jailed-for-neglect-and-abuse-of-children

Excerpt : "The three girls were aged between three and six when the offending first came to light. The girls are now 12 and 13, with the oldest of the three dying two years ago."

9 long years of ongoing and horrendous child abuse until one died (suicide) before real action is taken. :mad ;:

Feeling proud to be a Kiwi with our justice & child welfare system?:t_down:

Not really the right thread, but I think this needs an answer.

NZ has - as any other country - some rotten apples in their (our) society and (again as everybody else) a somewhat incompetent system to protect children ... and yes, our justice system is far from perfect (though I haven't yet seen the perfect one). I don't argue that - and if you want to discuss that, just create a thread. I assume however there will be little disagreement.

China on the other hand is systematically abusing the human rights of anybody getting into the way of their system and government. They are quite happy to incarcerate and if it is more convenient to kill their opponents.

And I am sure, they have neglected children as well in China ...

Surely - you must be able to see the difference?

[BlackPeter]

...

As for human rights and justice system - try this one - https://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/113763888/drugaddicted-taranaki-woman-jailed-for-neglect-and-abuse-of-children

Excerpt : "The three girls were aged between three and six when the offending first came to light. The girls are now 12 and 13, with the oldest of the three dying two years ago."

9 long years of ongoing and horrendous child abuse until one died (suicide) before real action is taken. :mad ;:

Feeling proud to be a Kiwi with our justice & child welfare system?:t_down:

Not really the right thread, but I think this needs an answer.

NZ has - as any other country - some rotten apples in their (our) society and (again as everybody else) a somewhat incompetent system to protect children ... and yes, our justice system is far from perfect (though I haven't yet seen the perfect one). I don't argue that - and if you want to discuss that, just create a thread. I assume however there will be little disagreement.

China on the other hand is systematically abusing the human rights of anybody getting into the way of their system and government. They are quite happy to incarcerate and if it is more convenient to kill their opponents.

And I am sure, they have neglected children as well in China ...

Surely - you must be able to see the difference?

[golden city]

Auckland council selling the building to secrecy buyers for only 3 million which the building should worth 10s of millions. That is a nice way not call corruption

[Balance]

Auckland council selling the building to secrecy buyers for only 3 million which the building should worth 10s of millions. That is a nice way not call corruption

ANZ Bank selling to its MD's wife a residence for $4m under valuation - not corruption, surely!

This is NZ - we do not have corruption here.

[golden city]

Dirty politic corruption are everywhere not just China

[tuaman]

seems very bad news for thl i guess.
tourism levy should have hidden in the airline ticket price not in eta cost.

https://www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/what-we-do/our-strategies-and-projects/eta-new-requirements

[BlackPeter]

seems very bad news for thl i guess.
tourism levy should have hidden in the airline ticket price not in eta cost.

https://www.immigration.govt.nz/about-us/what-we-do/our-strategies-and-projects/eta-new-requirements



I guess it would have been impossible for ticket sellers to decide whether the passenger needs to pay the fee or not. An ETA might be the best way and is in line with what Australia and the US are doing for some years now.

Not sure whether it hit their tourism numbers? Personally - I don't particularly like to travel to either of these countries, but this is not related to their ETA system, but to the arrogance of their authorities and the xenophobic tendencies of both governments.

[RTM]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4273039-free-falling-rv-shipments-signal-recession?ifp=0

Some interesting chit-chat in the comments below as well. Certainly not conclusive.
Disc: Holding...still.

[RTM]

So....THL paying out > $30,000,000pa in dividends on one side.
While raising $80,000,000 through issuing new shares.
Hmmmm...does this make sense ? Not sure.
On a personal basis I like the dividends...however ?
I'll go chop some wood while I ponder over this one.

[winner69]

So....THL paying out > $30,000,000pa in dividends on one side.
While raising $80,000,000 through issuing new shares.
Hmmmm...does this make sense ? Not sure.
On a personal basis I like the dividends...however ?
I'll go chop some wood while I ponder over this one.

Been borrowing to pay divies for a while so just another way of funding them

[Scrunch]

Been borrowing to pay divies for a while so just another way of funding them

You are correct that dividends have exceeded cashflow from operations and for most organisations this would indicate they are borrowing (or reducing cash) to pay the dividend and any capital costs.

THL is slighly unique in that a lot a of PP&E purchases are shorter term and intended to be sold again. This has caused a quirk in their accounting that a high proportion of their PP&E purchases are reported as cashflow from operations not cashflow from investing activities (>95% for 2017 and 2018). If PP&E on the balance sheet is increased, cashflow from operations is weak which has happened over the last two years. This has caused net cashflow from operations to be less than the dividend paid.

If net campervan sales are reclassified as investing cashflows, cashflow from operations improves to $45m in 2017 and $50m in 2018. Investing cash outflows are larger at -$123m and -$38m with the -$123m including $78m of acquisition expenditure. Borrowing increased by $102m and $15m. Did the increase in borrowing fund the increase in assets or the dividends of $22m and $23m? It all depends on the perspective taken

[macduffy]

More evidence of slowing of Aussie economy, our biggest source of tourists.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-new-indicator-that-tells-us-something-is-deeply-wrong-with-the-economy-20190703-p523nx.html

[Chanchay]

More evidence of slowing of Aussie economy, our biggest source of tourists.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-new-indicator-that-tells-us-something-is-deeply-wrong-with-the-economy-20190703-p523nx.html


And some more
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4273039-free-falling-rv-shipments-signal-recession

[theace]

What the view on taking up the rights offer? $3.40 still a discount at current prices.

[percy]

Usually a company's share price is weak when they are raising capital.
Good time to buy in,poor time to sell out.

[Benny1]

What the view on taking up the rights offer? $3.40 still a discount at current prices.
I personally won't be taking up the offer.
Not selling at the moment or buying any extra.
Have also stopped the DRP and at the moment will take future divis in cash.
While the price is definitely weaker than it has been I'm not completely convinced it won't drift lower over the coming months.
I think the economic cycle and weak business confidence is all against cyclicals like this in the current times.
Think they still have a bright future but they are in for a trying period over the next while.
ATL also struggling for traction on that ASX..

Will be taking up the rights issue with ARV which is happening at the same time and hopefully grab a few extra of those !

[RTM]

" The clearing price under the shortfall bookbuild was $3.88 per share, a
premium of $0.48 per share over the application price of $3.40 per share
under the offer. "

Decent premium over the application price. Pleased I took up my allocation....so far.

[percy]

The trust I am a trustee of took up its entitlement.
Was not sure whether it should have or not,so I am very pleased it did.

[Scrunch]

Hmmm...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-rvs/trumps-tariffs-trip-up-the-all-american-rv-industry-idUSKCN1UD18L

The graph of sales vs recessions shows a drop in sales has predicted 5 of the last 3 recessions.

[RTM]

Sold the extras. Paid for the groceries this week.
I am not confident in the direction this company is heading, and don’t need the additional exposure.
Pleased I took the risk on the issue, and pleased they have gone.


" The clearing price under the shortfall bookbuild was $3.88 per share, a
premium of $0.48 per share over the application price of $3.40 per share
under the offer. "

Decent premium over the application price. Pleased I took up my allocation....so far.

[horus1]

Morgan Stanley soaked up the float. They must think there is value

[RTM]

Morgan Stanley soaked up the float. They must think there is value

Hope they are right. Plenty left.

[winner69]

F19 profit going to be better than they earlier said

Like the words ‘Comfortably exceed’

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/338927/305104.pdf

[janner]

F19 profit going to be better than they earlier said

Like the words ‘Comfortably exceed’

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/338927/305104.pdf

Hmmmm. My weekly scan of the market two weeks ago did come up with " Bullish Engulfing Pattern "..

Disc. Never held.

[winner69]

NPAT of 27.9m beat guidance ...well done, under promise and over deliver and all that

Couldn’t resist posting the extract from the Cash Flow Statement though .....Capital raise bought in $30.7m and they paid divies of $29,4m. Pretty cool eh. (Raised another $50m since Balance date as well)

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/339809/306251.pdf

[Leftfield]

Glad this one is no longer in my portfolio....

* NPAT of $29.8M, down 52% on the prior year, which included the one-off gain of $23.1M relating to the formation of Togo Group (formerly branded as TH2).
* NPAT excluding non-recurring items of $27.9M, above the latest market guidance of $25-$27M, down 26% on the prior year.
* EBIT (excluding non-recurring items) of $62.1M, down 2% on the prior year.
* Total group revenue of $423M, down 1% on the prior year. Rental revenue up 9% on the prior year.
* Final dividend of 14cps (50% imputed), bringing the full year dividend to 27cps in line with the prior year.
* Net debt of $202M, compared to $199M in the prior year.
* Commencement of thl’s journey to become a Future-Fit Business.

[iceman]

Same here Left field, glad to be out of this one for now. We are a very long for the $50m NPAT they were aiming for in 2020 !!

[oldtech]

I also exited in February at $4.35 (at a loss), was kicking myself when it subsequently started rising again but now grateful I didn't hold on just in case.

[Sideshow Bob]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/342900/310136.pdf

More less than positive news.

[winner69]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/342900/310136.pdf



More less than positive news.

I think that’s a nice way of putting it

They not even going to guess how bad ...but that’s good as BlackPeter’s hero tells us “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future"

[winner69]

No mention of Togo and the tech side ...thought they could have added some good stuff about that to keep punters excited about the bright future the way business is done

But at the end of the day suppose it’s the bottom line that counts...like real money

[winner69]

Love this bit “...we consider that the business is performing well on a comparative basis.” (To other market players in the US)

So the whole market is stuffed ....so thl not too bad after all.

[Balance]

Love this bit “...we consider that the business is performing well on a comparative basis.” (To other market players in the US)

So the whole market is stuffed ....so thl not too bad after all.

Lost count myself of how many NZ companies have gone to the US and lost big money.

Why do they continue to throw good money after bad into that most competitive of markets?

Ego at shareholders' expense?

[Beagle]

No mention of Togo and the tech side ...thought they could have added some good stuff about that to keep punters excited about the bright future the way business is done

But at the end of the day suppose it’s the bottom line that counts...like real money

The whole foray into the US market is looking like a slow motion train wreck. Never mind, just keep borrowing even more to pay out dividends and throw it into more tech apps well. That's got to appeal to both tech heads and dividends hounds so must support the share price regardless of results, right ? Heck, why not go all out and float it on the NASDAQ.

[winner69]

The whole foray into the US market is looking like a slow motion train wreck. Never mind, just keep borrowing even more to pay out dividends and throw it into more tech apps well. That's got to appeal to both tech heads and dividends hounds so must support the share price regardless of results, right ? Heck, why not go all out and float it on the NASDAQ.

Suppose all the “punters” who through $80m into the pot are still happy.

Time for Chair to go I reckon ...a year ago he was talking about vitality

[macduffy]

Suppose all the “punters” who through $80m into the pot are still happy.

Time for Chair to go I reckon ...a year ago he was talking about agility

And not so long ago he was close to being Sharetrader's favourite!

:ohmy:

[Beagle]

Too much on Rob Campbell's plate, by miles, even for a workaholic. He's too old to maintain the pace he once did. He needs to have a nice long chat with that charming Dr Marie Bismark on the SUM board, (she's a bit snooty and doesn't hang around to talk to the shareholders after meetings though), and she needs to talk some common sense into him about a more balanced and appropriate lifestyle for his age. I agree, time for him to step aside and for some fresh idea's. Can't help wondering if his halo doesn't work in America...out of his depth over there ?

[winner69]

Rob will hate turning up to an AGM going over a ****ty years performance and saying the current year is even ****tier.

[BlackPeter]

Rob will hate turning up to an AGM going over a ****ty years performance and saying the current year is even ****tier.

Isn't this (FY2020) the year where they promised still in 2017 to achieve a $50m NPAT?

Must have been one of these aspirational goals anyway ... but probably useful to lure more money out of shareholders pockets.

Maybe just the time for some alternative facts ...

[winner69]

Last years ASM Rob told about how he had read about a Boston Consulting study that mentioned this ‘vitality’ thing and quoted F Scott Fitzgerald “vitality shows not only in the ability to persist but the ability to start over” and concluded that captures what thl are trying to do


Wonder what he’s been reading lately.

[winner69]

Have thl ever come up with a revised $50m profit in FY20 target ...mentioned they would

Looks like FY20 going to be less than $25m .....hmm

[Beagle]

That's quite a miss isn't it ! Hope somebody at the annual meeting takes him to task over this and asks what are they going to do about it.
No profit guidance... Hmmm, that's a first for many years.

[RTM]

And I dodged a bullet....sold mid Sept for a modest profit. They had worried me for a while.
Their dabbling in computer stuff really concerned me.
Thanks to posters raising / discussing the various red flags along the way.
As I’ve said before...it’s a pity...if we must fill our country with tourists...it would be nice to make a big profit.
Having said that....I realise this latest hiccup is USA.

[glennj]

Well I'm glad I sold the last of my THL holdings in June realising a good profit. Percy at the time you asked what I was reinvesting in but didn't say as I was still accumulating. That money largely went in to topping up MMH which has done well since the switches out of THL!

[dzhang1510]

Anyone else at a fat loss? Was gonna sell off for a small loss last friday... :( now huge loss

[Beagle]

Have thl ever come up with a revised $50m profit in FY20 target ...mentioned they would

Looks like FY20 going to be less than $25m .....hmm

$25m on 147m shares is just 17 cps earnings. This has normally topped out at a PE of 18 when its been growing strongly = just $3.06.
But what's a fair PE in a much lower growth environment for a cyclical tourism company now global growth is much lower ?
Hmmmmm….. Looks like a lot of risk to the downside to me...

[winner69]

Rob saying F20 profit materially below market expectations

And goes on “FY20 NPAT result would be below the FY19 ordinary NPAT (exclusive of non-recurring items) result of $27.9M.”

Market expectaions were $32m (Market Screener)

Jeez less than $27.9m is quite a long way from $32m expectations

Nice wonder they not taking a guess ....even though they already know the half year result.

Bit of worry

[winner69]

$25m on 147m shares is just 17 cps earnings. This has normally topped out at a PE of 18 when its been growing strongly = just $3.06.
But what's a fair PE in a much lower growth environment for a cyclical tourism company now global growth is much lower ?
Hmmmmm….. Looks like a lot of risk to the downside to me...

Beagle ok Value is $2.42 per share ...and that includes the $80m new cash

Still a bit more pain I reckon

[winner69]

Market Value Added (MVA) is a good measure of a company’s worth. It’s the difference between the market cap and shareholder equity.

It’s also an indication of how much value (returns in excess of cost of capital) the market expects the company to achieve in future

At the time of last years ASM thl’s MVA was $377m - today it’s $195m

That’s a huge difference ...but whatsca worry is that the market is still expecting thl to do pretty well in future

Maybe that vitality will work.

[Brain]

Anyone else at a fat loss? Was gonna sell off for a small loss last friday... :( now huge loss

I sold all of mine in April at a substantial profit since I bought in at 67c. The profit that I made cancelled the loss I made on CBL shares almost to the dollar. I always try take the view that it is best to judge your portfolio as a whole at not get over excited about the losses or gains on individual shares.

[Balance]

Rob saying F20 profit materially below market expectations

And goes on “FY20 NPAT result would be below the FY19 ordinary NPAT (exclusive of non-recurring items) result of $27.9M.”

Market expectaions were $32m (Market Screener)

Jeez less than $27.9m is quite a long way from $32m expectations

Nice wonder they not taking a guess ....even though they already know the half year result.

Bit of worry

Have lost count - is this the third downgrade?

[winner69]

Have lost count - is this the third downgrade?

It’s getting a bit like the good old days when thl ‘disappointed’ the market time and time again most gave up on them.

Remember when those Aussies offered an outrageous price to take them over but share holders rejected it ....it was at about todays price I think.

[couta1]

I sold all of mine in April at a substantial profit since I bought in at 67c. The profit that I made cancelled the loss I made on CBL shares almost to the dollar. I always try take the view that it is best to judge your portfolio as a whole at not get over excited about the losses or gains on individual shares. Very wise approach.

[Balance]

It’s getting a bit like the good old days when thl ‘disappointed’ the market time and time again most gave up on them.

Remember when those Aussies offered an outrageous price to take them over but share holders rejected it ....it was at about todays price I think.

Genuinely expected better from Rob Campbell but I guess it's a bit like Bill Falconer who was a bit of a hero when he first started taking over the Chairmanship of various companies - then it became a case of selling the hell out if you saw his name on a BOD.

I have to say I was grateful the Aussies (MFS?) were not successful in taking over THL at the time as it gave a second opportunity to ride the upside and recovery story.

Unfortunately, that story seems to be coming to an end (again).

[winner69]

Genuinely expected better from Rob Campbell but I guess it's a bit like Bill Falconer who was a bit of a hero when he first started taking over the Chairmanship of various companies - then it became a case of selling the hell out if you saw his name on a BOD.

I have to say I was grateful the Aussies (MFS?) were not successful in taking over THL at the time as it gave a second opportunity to ride the upside and recovery story.

Unfortunately, that story seems to be coming to an end (again).

Pays to reminisce a bit eh mate

Amazes me that the market in the main still loves thl ....must see heaps of potential I don't

[macduffy]

Having been burnt by a company called Trans Tours back in the last century I've since avoided capital-hungry tourism ventures and their depreciating assets!

[Beagle]

Pays to reminisce a bit eh mate

Amazes me that the market in the main still loves thl ....must see heaps of potential I don't

Does eh mate. Remember the days when THL was viewed as a purely cyclical tourism company on a PE of 10 ?
Heck that would put it on just 17 cps at $25m x 10 = $1.70 :eek2: Love story for THL over ?

[winner69]

Even though a pretty big drop today share price yet to adjust/reflect for current earnings outlook and even worse still to be rerated down

Punters just love thl

[Beagle]

Can't see any reason in a low global growth environment the PE should be above the historical average, (ultra low interest rates notwithstanding)
Average PE of 16 on 17 cps which is $25m earnings gives just $2.72 assuming the narrative stays the same and doesn't deteriorate further.
Wonder how the TH2 thing they're throwing tens of millions at is going ?

[Lease]

THL operate in a very cyclical industry and US RV were peaked last year. So it will take a few years to recover. Just watch how many dividends they are going to pay. If they can maintain the current DPS, or even only pay 20C per share, it will support SP given the low interest rate.

Another thing to note is: normally NZ companies perform poorly once they expand to US. So need to pay attention on ATM.

[BlackPeter]

...

Another thing to note is: normally NZ companies perform poorly once they expand to US. So need to pay attention on ATM.

Good point, though XRO and FPH seem to do ok-ish ;); For some others (e.g. ERD) the jury is still out.

[winner69]

Anybody remember how much thl has ‘invested’ in the US and this TH2 thing?

[Beagle]

Vague memory its somewhere around $30m...that's just off memory, sorry don't have time to go back and review all the announcements so I am sure someone will correct me.
Seems like throwing money down a deep and dark rat hole to me. Someone really needs to take the board to task at the annual meeting and question when they are ever going to see dividends from this very expensive fishing expedition.

[winner69]

Vague memory its somewhere around $30m...that's just off memory, sorry don't have time to go back and review all the announcements so I am sure someone will correct me.
Seems like throwing money down a deep and dark rat hole to me.

I see from last presentation that Funds Employed in the US / TOGO is over $200m

Includes working capital etc

[Beagle]

I see from last presentation that Funds Employed in the US / TOGO is over $200m

Includes working capital etc

Oh my goodness :eek2: They must think its going to change the world, (I am very skeptical).

[winner69]

Don’t know if this chart I found is relevant or not but it looks pretty cool

From here
https://www.thewanderingrv.com/rv-industry-statistics-trends-facts/#tab-con-7

No wonder thl went for broke a few years ago

[winner69]

Phew says Rob - no meeting today. Hopefully everybody has forgotten the bad news of Monday and when we do have a meeting punters will be happier.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/343033/310302.pdf

[Benny1]

Just got back from doing a couple of Maui relocations.
First was two nights Queenstown to Christchurch then did four nights Christchurch to Auckland.
Had the same type of van both times, (which was a bit of a bugger that I didn’t get to try something else!) although the second was a year older than the first one.
First off, the customer experience dealing with the staff all branches were pretty good.
Picking up and dropping off in Auckland were both pretty smooth and reasonably quick, and Christchurch was good although there was a bit of a wait in getting to our new van as being relocation customer rather than full paying customers, we expected that, (we have done these before but not for several years).
The branches are good, quite welcoming and modern looking, especially the Christchurch branch which is in a whole new location since we were last there and very nice.

The vans were four berth Maui branded vans with a bed that pulls down from the ceiling space at the back, as well as a second that you make up using the back seat, so if there were four of you in the van it would feel like bunk beds! We slept both times in the top pull down bed as you only have to make the bed up once and then just throw the bed up out of the way during the day! Brilliant.
Would I like to have four people in the van? No! but some people don’t mind getting close to one another I suppose!
The vans we had had Navigation and Campermate app installed in van, however I found the Campermate app on my phone to be more up to date, However I can see where THL are going with this and do think in time it will add to the overall experience in time.
The vans were generally in good condition, although I thought they could have been cleaned a little better. There was a bit of dust around places that could have been easily cleaned.
They were based on turbo diesel Mercedes Sprinter’s and they were very easy to drive and moved along quite nicely on the road, even managed 80kms an hour up the Bombays!
The campgrounds we stayed in were all ok, facilities generally good a couple still have pay for use showers which at $$40 odd dollars a night I think should be included in the cost of staying there. Everyone campground between $40-$48 a night for two people on a powered site, which I think is a bit pricy for what you get, and I can see why freedom camping has become very popular.

Lastly I was surprised how busy the Campgrounds were at this time of year and at just how many THL branded campervans were out there, there seemed to be way more than the other campervan operators out there, so from a purely unscientific observation of the last week driving around particularly the South Island I would say the rental side of the business seems to be going great guns!
Also the amount of German tourists driving around was also quite interesting to note, there seems to be heaps here at the moment!

[winner69]

Good stuff Benny

The free parking / camping around Owhiro Bay in Wellington is chocker most nights winter and summer ...and Thl have a decent market share.

[Maverick]

Sounds like a fun kind of job Benny.
Ive owned THL about a decade ago and used to keenly count RVs and competition brands out there etc..
It used to be a fun road trip thing like eye spy.
As soon as they went off shore and bought BEARs in USA I sold out.
They have since ventured way beyond their knitting and got their fingers in Aussy and USA and IT stuff . I'm so out these days, anything offshore and IT frighten the bejesus out of me.
The master stroke for them was when they bought out their main competition , Apollo, some years ago but have now gone way beyond their core strength from just renting camper vans in the most beautiful country in the world. Camper vans running around NZ may be going well, why wouldn't it, but offshore earnings (and their IT project) seem to negatively overshadow any good results achieved here in NZ

[percy]

Sounds like a fun kind of job Benny.
Ive owned THL about a decade ago and used to keenly count RVs and competition brands out there etc..
It used to be a fun road trip thing like eye spy.
As soon as they went off shore and bought BEARs in USA I sold out.
They have since ventured way beyond their knitting and got their fingers in Aussy and USA and IT stuff . I'm so out these days, anything offshore and IT frighten the bejesus out of me.
The master stroke for them was when they bought out their main competition , Apollo, some years ago but have now gone way beyond their core strength from just renting camper vans in the most beautiful country in the world. Camper vans running around NZ may be going well, why wouldn't it, but offshore earnings (and their IT project) seem to negatively overshadow any good results achieved here in NZ

I think Apollo [ATL asx] would be very surprised to learn they sold out to THL...lol..

[Maverick]

I think Apollo [ATL asx] would be very surprised to learn they sold out to THL...lol..
Fair enough Percy, I'm just going off memory for the brand but they were the major competition at the time , do you remember which company it was?
just found it " kea" and "united" in 2012. - I've seen THL RVs with "Apollo" pressed in the skin (but not coloured in )as if they had been rebranded, my bad.

[Benny1]

Fair enough Percy, I'm just going off memory for the brand but they were the major competition at the time , do you remember which company it was?
They bought out United Campervans and Kea, and also Horizon Pacific? If I remember right..

[percy]

They bought out United Campervans and Kea, and also Horizon Pacific? If I remember right..
Correct.......................

[winner69]

In three years the thl share price has gone from $3.38 to $6.76 and back to $3.36 again

Pretty amazing eh

A journey a bit like Benny’s relocations

[Benny1]

In three years the thl share price has gone from $3.38 to $6.76 and back to $3.36 again

Pretty amazing eh

A journey a bit like Benny’s relocations

Haha ...Yep it's a bit like that!

Oh well I suppose they will turn the corner eventually!

[Scrunch]

They bought out United Campervans and Kea, and also Horizon Pacific? If I remember right..

From memory merged is a better description. A lot of THL shares were issued so the past owners ok Kea etc became shareholders in the enlarged group.

[glennj]

Well I'm glad I sold the last of my THL holdings in June realising a good profit. Percy at the time you asked what I was reinvesting in but didn't say as I was still accumulating. That money largely went in to topping up MMH which has done well since the switches out of THL!

THL now down 50+ cents since I switched out and MMH up 216 cents per share based on average net buy and sell prices. Nice to have a bold call work out!

[winner69]

I’m told that Grant Webster put a slide up at a recent presentation that only had these words on it:

“We have the goal to achieve an NPAT of $50m”


So the target is still alive and well

So thl will be a $5/$6 share again ..no worries

[BlackPeter]

I’m told that Grant Webster put a slide up at a recent presentation that only had these words on it:

“We have the goal to achieve an NPAT of $50m”


So the target is still alive and well

So thl will be a $5/$6 share again ..no worries

Wasn't $50m NPAT the goal for the current financial year (as announced three years ago)? But I guess it is cunning to remove the deadline - this way he can reuse the slide again - and again - and again.

[Beagle]

I’m told that Grant Webster put a slide up at a recent presentation that only had these words on it:

“We have the goal to achieve an NPAT of $50m”


So the target is still alive and well

So thl will be a $5/$6 share again ..no worries

Feels a bit like Convita's goal to be making $400m sales by FY20 to me. Anyone can have any goal they like, whether its credible or realistically attainable is quite another thing...

[Jonboyz]

Glad I sold out of THL and moved the money into SKO shares two months ago.

[bottomfeeder]

Little spike in the share price. Is it takeover time or some good news on the horizon.

[winner69]

Rob Campbell outlined thl’s approach to being a Future Fit Business at their ASM

It was very good. Hope all businesses are starting to think like this.

Surprised not much comment about it in the media

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/343558/310957.pdf

[Lease]

Rob Campbell outlined thl’s approach to being a Future Fit Business at their ASM

It was very good. Hope all businesses are starting to think like this.

Surprised not much comment about it in the media

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/343558/310957.pdf

People don't pay much attention on FFBB such abstract concept, rather focus on profit THL will make. Given the whole industry has passed the peak, and now THL main activity is in US & very few NZ companies are successful in US, so I expect THL sp will drop below $3.

[dodgy]

People don't pay much attention on FFBB such abstract concept, rather focus on profit THL will make. Given the whole industry has passed the peak, and now THL main activity is in US & very few NZ companies are successful in US, so I expect THL sp will drop below $3.

Hi all,
I travel extensively in the States in my RV and are frequently asking renting people in El Monte or Road Bear units what the company (THL) offers in way of service or price. Price is a hard one as many punters have a package tour with hotels/flights as well , mainly from Germany or France but a few Yanks. Service however is always over riding dismal, from delays at pickup to insufficient induction to prep and cleanliness - sometimes requiring return to base; irritatingly, after departure. Because they leave the country I can't comment on the return hand in stuff.
Over the years I have been a Very supportive shareholder , but no longer holding but still hopeful of one day. The reason I comment here is this is a great exploitable situation with goodwill being squandered, which is sad for a proud NZ (maybe) company. Seems to me that hands on US organisation would help there.
Good luck to all holders - I will continue my research next Northern summer.
Regards
-dodgy

[iceman]

Thanks for that dodgy. Nothing like good old on the ground investigative work. I sold out over a year ago when they started reporting abysmal results from their RV business in the US. That is their core and I am not interested in becoming a holder again until they "show me the money" in that side of the business. I fear they have a long way to go and your report supports that view.


Hi all,
I travel extensively in the States in my RV and are frequently asking renting people in El Monte or Road Bear units what the company (THL) offers in way of service or price. Price is a hard one as many punters have a package tour with hotels/flights as well , mainly from Germany or France but a few Yanks. Service however is always over riding dismal, from delays at pickup to insufficient induction to prep and cleanliness - sometimes requiring return to base; irritatingly, after departure. Because they leave the country I can't comment on the return hand in stuff.
Over the years I have been a Very supportive shareholder , but no longer holding but still hopeful of one day. The reason I comment here is this is a great exploitable situation with goodwill being squandered, which is sad for a proud NZ (maybe) company. Seems to me that hands on US organisation would help there.
Good luck to all holders - I will continue my research next Northern summer.
Regards
-dodgy

[dodgy]

Thanks for that dodgy. Nothing like good old on the ground investigative work. I sold out over a year ago when they started reporting abysmal results from their RV business in the US. That is their core and I am not interested in becoming a holder again until they "show me the money" in that side of the business. I fear they have a long way to go and your report supports that view.

Hi Iceman,
Who wouldn't support a Kiwi company when offshore. It hurts to hear of their failings and I am not sure of their assosiation with Thor either. However I hope time proves me incorrect.
I would be more than willing to invest time and effort as a secret shopper type to uncover deficiencies for the company , particularly with my RV background , including my hire of units in North America and Aussie over the years. I want to be a shareholder again - the future is bright in this area (500000 RVs sold in 2018 as I understand it.- so an expanding worldwide tourism awareness of all nationalities.
-dodgy

[percy]

They should be able to fix these problems,as they used to have them here.
Germans booking a Mercedes van, and after delays being given another brand,which had not been properly cleaned or prepared

[Yoda]

White island will be a bit of a blow for whakatane. I cant see tourism being allowed onto there any time soon. Tragic loss of life.

[whatsup]

Looks like its off the bottom , $3.03 low and closed @ $3.15 today .

[Blendy]

i managed to sell 1 single share at $3.18 somehow today

[BlackPeter]

i managed to sell 1 single share at $3.18 somehow today

I recon you are not chuffed about the deal, are you?

[dodgy]

i managed to sell 1 single share at $3.18 somehow today

Hi Blendy and all,
Festive greetings.
I think it is high time shareholders and shareholder associations stood up against this blatant dicky trading which I belieive is being orchestrated by the brokers or interest groups like Kiwi-saver managers, and condoned by the NZX - all to effect trading costs and hence profits for "them".
Fair and honest?
You decide.
Regards,
Dodgy

[Blendy]

yeah it is a bit hard to see how all the tiny single digit trades are sensible in any way. Surely the average person doing their own trading is not going to pay $30 to trade such tiny quantities.

I'm just hoping that the rest of my trade goes through because the trading fee certainly makes it an unprofitable trade, even before i look at any loss i'm making in selling.

[couta1]

yeah it is a bit hard to see how all the tiny single digit trades are sensible in any way. Surely the average person doing their own trading is not going to pay $30 to trade such tiny quantities.

I'm just hoping that the rest of my trade goes through because the trading fee certainly makes it an unprofitable trade, even before i look at any loss i'm making in selling. Nothing to do with an average person, it's all machine controlled trading.

[Brain]

yeah it is a bit hard to see how all the tiny single digit trades are sensible in any way. Surely the average person doing their own trading is not going to pay $30 to trade such tiny quantities.

I'm just hoping that the rest of my trade goes through because the trading fee certainly makes it an unprofitable trade, even before i look at any loss i'm making in selling.

this is the Sharesies effect. I think we are just going to have to get used to it.

[dodgy]

Hi,
And who do you think controls the machines ? Retail investors ? .
Its a scam? Or - please provide any valid reasoning .You decide.
-d

[couta1]

this is the Sharesies effect. I think we are just going to have to get used to it. Yep Sharesies have caused a lot of these problems of late but the NZX has turned a blind eye.

[BlackPeter]

Yep Sharesies have caused a lot of these problems of late but the NZX has turned a blind eye.

What exactly is the NZX supposed to do in your view? Sharesies and their price structure do allow buying and selling of individual shares (or small numbers). Nothing illegal with that. Maybe the other brokers will need to look at their price structure instead.

[dodgy]

Yep Sharesies have caused a lot of these problems of late but the NZX has turned a blind eye.

Sorry guys this is rubbish,
Complacency is and will cost all.
d

[couta1]

Sorry guys this is rubbish,
Complacency is and will cost all.
d Afraid not but I'm not going to argue with you, do your own research instead.

[dodgy]

Afraid not but I'm not going to argue with you, do your own research instead.

I am sorry to offend you Couta but I fail to understand how anybody can make a profit on a 1 share etc, trade. The accounting proceedures alone cost - if any are being done. Please explain how for me and no doubt a few others.
d

[couta1]

I am sorry to offend you Couta but I fail to understand how anybody can make a profit on a 1 share etc, trade. The accounting proceedures alone cost - if any are being done. Please explain how for me and no doubt a few others.
d Its not about making a profit on 1 share but rather clogging the market up with tiny bot orders on both the buy and sell side and controlling the price.

[dodgy]

Its not about making a profit on 1 share but rather clogging the market up with tiny bot orders on both the buy and sell side and controlling the price.

Probably, but as I said originally . By whom and for what purpose is this "control" exercised. Thats the underlying reason why you, I and others are paying too much.
d

[BlackPeter]

I am sorry to offend you Couta but I fail to understand how anybody can make a profit on a 1 share etc, trade. The accounting proceedures alone cost - if any are being done. Please explain how for me and no doubt a few others.
d

Sharesies is an automated platform with a linear (small percentage of your purchase) fee structure and individuals can buy shares over their mobile while ordering a coffee - or doing whatever ... Saved a bit of money from lunch ... buy a RBC share (or half of it) instead.

No accountants hurt during this procedure ... and the computer platform either does not mind whether it is idling around or buying another share instead.

https://www.sharesies.nz/

Here is the relevant paragraph in the sharesies conditions:

10904

Note - this is not a sales pitch for Sharesies. I don't use them, though they might be useful for some investors. Better do your own research ...

[Brain]

It can also happen when I want to sell 10000 shares and manage to sell 9900 at the price so I will close out the sale for the remaining At a much lower price. I have done that on many occasions for both buy and sell. Investors just need to be vigilant and take notice of small crossings at high or low prices.

Maybe I am oversimplifying things - I do that a lot.

[dodgy]

It can also happen when I want to sell 10000 shares and manage to sell 9900 at the price so I will close out the sale for the remaining At a much lower price. I have done that on many occasions for both buy and sell. Investors just need to be vigilant and take notice of small crossings at high or low prices.

Maybe I am oversimplifying things - I do that a lot.

Hi Brian,
I agree with you this can happen and does to me as well , but frequently a buy order (or sell) of med quantity is "activated" by a 1 or more low volume offer becoming a spoiler by exposing the order to a minimum fee. Motive of spoiler?? . It appears that other than a $30 annual fee, the "Super Smart" small bit trader incurs % fees on most trades. Comments?
Regards,
dodgy

[Brain]

Hi Brian,
I agree with you this can happen and does to me as well , but frequently a buy order (or sell) of med quantity is "activated" by a 1 or more low volume offer becoming a spoiler by exposing the order to a minimum fee. Motive of spoiler?? . It appears that other than a $30 annual fee, the "Super Smart" small bit trader incurs % fees on most trades. Comments?
Regards,
dodgy

yes I see your point dodgy. I usually don’t have the problem because I respond to buy and sell quotes and don’t put sell or buy orders on the market waiting to be filled. I am usually not too fussy about the price because when I decide to buy and sell then I am doing so because I think the price of the share will be significantly higher or lower in the future so I am not inclined to nickel and dime the seller or buyer.

Of course if everybody behaved like me there would be no buy or sell orders and we wouldn’t have a market.

[winner69]

Reasonably positive action with Thl shares the last few days

[Snow Leopard]

Two green days does not an uptrend make.

[Beagle]

I'm with the cat on this one. Shares are still in a well established downtrend.

[winner69]

Apollo in Oz impacted by the bush fires — peak season and all that.

Also commented that global sales of RVs still not that good.

[percy]

Apollo in Oz badly impacted by the bush fires — peak season and all that.

Their S-T-R-E-T-C-H-E-D balance sheet must be feeling the strain.?

[golden city]

I would be love to see Thl in action to take over or merger with Apollo now

[Rowdy Flat]

I would be love to see Thl in action to take over or merger with Apollo now

Really? They have enough issues to sort now... including debt.

[percy]

I would be love to see Thl in action to take over or merger with Apollo now

The market capitalisation of THL is NZ $480.85 mil.
The market capitalisation of ATL is Au $72.6mil,
So could be game on.?
Australian market will be tough for both for the foreseeable future because of the bushfires affecting their peak season.
The ATL debt would need some serious capital to bring it to a manageable level.

[SCOTTY]

Possible that Apollo has loss of profit insurance?

[percy]

Very unlikely going from their trading update yesterday.

[Beagle]

2 year chart of THL looks very sad. Wonder how they are going to their progress towards their $50m profit target ?

[Beagle]

If I were a shareholder, which I am not, I would definitely be nervous about a campervan company pouring capital and energy into off shoot with the objective of becoming a global market leader in a tech field. As a business and culturally miles apart and raises questions about whether Management and the Board have a realistic grasp of their Circle of Competence.

Maybe if they become a tech company they wont need to worry about the $50 m profit target as they can lose money and argue for a valuation that is a large multiple of sales revenue.

Maybe that's bene their goal all along :) (I'm a former shareholder who liked it when they stuck to their knitting in N.Z.)

[golden city]

I think I am the lucky one by following thl so early that this company make my retirement came so much earlier. In the 30s. I am still a believer holder but with much smaller position now but waiting on direction on sideline

[RTM]

I think I am the lucky one by following thl so early that this company make my retirement came so much earlier. In the 30s. I am still a believer holder but with much smaller position now but waiting on direction on sideline

Yes, I recall your early entry into THL. Well done!
I am right out for a modest profit while enjoying nice dividends.

[winner69]

Rupert .....Thl share price not collapsing because of that virus

No worries here

[RupertBear]

Rupert .....Thl share price not collapsing because of that virus

No worries here

Yes I am a bit surprised....hmm....this is good, no worries today....but maybe tomorrow....hmmm The Bear is processing what to do ;)

[Sideshow Bob]

Rupert .....Thl share price not collapsing because of that virus

No worries here

IF it was collapsing because of the virus, someone knew about Corona a year or so ago...…

Doing a good enough job on their own, down approx. 40% over the last 12 months. ;)

[RupertBear]

IF it was collapsing because of the virus, someone knew about Corona a year or so ago...…

Doing a good enough job on their own, down approx. 40% over the last 12 months. ;)

True the 12 month chart is certainly ugly, one long downtrend, and dipping down even further now as some run for the exit door.... while the Bear is dithering :rolleyes:

[winner69]

True the 12 month chart is certainly ugly, one long downtrend, and dipping down even further now as some run for the exit door.... while the Bear is dithering :rolleyes:

A dithering bear ...get a faster processor mate

[RupertBear]

A dithering bear ...get a faster processor mate

just downloaded one so no worries :D

[winner69]

just downloaded one so no worries :D

But don’t end up like Joshuatree ‘UPDATE READY TO INSTALL’

[Beagle]

LOL Winner.

I can foresee some VERY cheap deals on campervan hire this Autumn.
Australia day has the Australian market closed. 99% of Aucklanders are at the beach or on holiday...if it weren't for that...

[Balance]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119059473/financially-disastrous-chinese-new-year-as-chinese-tours-are-cancelled

"England-Hall said areas traditionally popular with Chinese New Year visitors - such as Queenstown, Rotorua and Milford Sound - would be hardest hit by the decision to halt tours.

One New Zealand hotel chain has already lost bookings from about 800 Chinese guests after 20 tour groups cancelled over the weekend.

General manager of the Scenic Hotel Group, Brendan Taylor, said the outbreak of the virus would have a dramatic impact

"The timing of it would not have been worse."

"Being Chinese New Year the impact is pretty large on everybody."

[BlackPeter]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119059473/financially-disastrous-chinese-new-year-as-chinese-tours-are-cancelled

"England-Hall said areas traditionally popular with Chinese New Year visitors - such as Queenstown, Rotorua and Milford Sound - would be hardest hit by the decision to halt tours.

One New Zealand hotel chain has already lost bookings from about 800 Chinese guests after 20 tour groups cancelled over the weekend.

General manager of the Scenic Hotel Group, Brendan Taylor, said the outbreak of the virus would have a dramatic impact

"The timing of it would not have been worse."

"Being Chinese New Year the impact is pretty large on everybody."

There might be an opportunity for normal Kiwis to visit these places now. I avoided places like Queenstown so far like the plague due to the overrun by overseas tourists, and others might have done the same.

And while I am unlikely to rent a camper van (hate these thing as well), there might be some additional business for the local hotels and restaurants ...

[Scrunch]

True the 12 month chart is certainly ugly, one long downtrend, and dipping down even further now as some run for the exit door.... while the Bear is dithering :rolleyes:

Dithering as to whether this is a great chance to buy additional shares cheaply or dithering as to whether there's further bad news which would push the share price even lower so it's better to sell Now?

[BlackPeter]

Dithering as to whether this is a great chance to buy additional shares cheaply or dithering as to whether there's further bad news which would push the share price even lower so it's better to sell Now?

Well, assuming people start panicking there might be at some stage a chance to buy some good shares at a discount. So far however I don't see the panic, but if it occurs I would not put THL into this category.

No virus will rid them off their unsold overhang of camper vans and no virus will change their risk related to investing hugely into software without understanding it.

[Beagle]

Well, assuming people start panicking there might be at some stage a chance to buy some good shares at a discount. So far however I don't see the panic, but if it occurs I would not put THL into this category.

No virus will rid them off their unsold overhang of camper vans and no virus will change their risk related to investing hugely into software without understanding it.

Quite right BP. THL have been on a pretty steady decline since winter 2018 when they were ~ $6.80.

[Oliver Mander]

Quite right BP. THL have been on a pretty steady decline since winter 2018 when they were ~ $6.80.

Agree. I sold out a while ago (not at $6.80 unfortunately), and 'guessed' at the time that a decent risk-weighted buy-in price would be around $2.80. Am tempted to run the numbers again to see if that still holds.

[winner69]

Quite right BP. THL have been on a pretty steady decline since winter 2018 when they were ~ $6.80.

I doubt Chairman Rob proud of seeing $400m wiped off thl’s market cap in 18 months

Rob also probably not proud of getting heaps of new capital from HB at $4 odd and seducing other punters to front up with another $50m at $3.40

What a lot of shareholder wealth has been destroyed in that time

[Beagle]

Agree. I sold out a while ago (not at $6.80 unfortunately), and 'guessed' at the time that a decent risk-weighted buy-in price would be around $2.80. Am tempted to run the numbers again to see if that still holds.
Likewise I can't remember when I got out but it was quite a while ago. For what its worth I am not tempted at the current price or anywhere close to this. I'd rather let the trend run its full course and buy back in when it breaks back up through the 100 day MA and thereby de-risk this cyclical stock properly. I think many people got carried away thinking this tourism company was a growth company and not a cyclical one. My sense is the next few months could be very confronting for shareholders as for the first time in more than a decade they might find out what a real tourism slump feels like and it won't just be limited to THL's N.Z. operations and good luck selling expensive, (purely discretionary purchase), second hand campervans in this environment !


I doubt Chairman Rob proud of seeing $400m wiped off thl’s market cap in 18 months

Rob also probably not proud of getting heaps of new capital from HB at $4 odd and seducing other punters to front up with another $50m at $3.40

What a lot of shareholder wealth has been destroyed in that time
He should be very disappointed with himself...got carried away with this tech stuff and its beyond his core competence in my opinion.
I think shareholders have every right to feel very disappointed with this reckless fishing expedition too.

[oldtech]

I got out in February 2019, at a loss unfortunately. Must admit I saw it as a growth company, but in my defence I think from memory that when I bought in (January 2018) the SP had been steadily rising for the previous four years.

[glennj]

THL down to 2.80 today I see. Makes me even happier that I sold the last of my holdings in late May 2019 at a good but smaller profit than the rest sold before that! The money reinvested in MMH is going well!