THL - Tourism Holdings

[Justin]

It’s good entry price now $2.8？

[BlackPeter]

It’s good entry price now $2.8？

Only if you think that they bottomed out. I doubt it.

[oldtech]

It’s good entry price now $2.8？

Disclaimer: I am no charting expert, far from it, but to me the chart looks ugly as. No sign that the campervan plummeting off the cliff has reached the bottom yet.

Also, you need to ask the more pertinent question, is this a business you feel comfortable investing in, at this point in time?

[Beagle]

Disclaimer: I am no charting expert, far from it, but to me the chart looks ugly as. No sign that the campervan plummeting off the cliff has reached the bottom yet.

Also, you need to ask the more pertinent question, is this a business you feel comfortable investing in, at this point in time?

Very sage advice there, agree 100%. Chart looks VERY ugly and I am not convinced in the slightest their very expensive fishing expedition into the deep and murky waters of U.S. tech will yield one scrap of value to the company.

[Oliver Mander]

It’s good entry price now $2.8？

Justin, that $2.80 I mentioned above was done when I sold out at $4.50 ages ago. I suspect if I re-did the analysis now, it would be quite a lot lower than that. Slowdown in global tourism impacting growth rates, which would impact the underlying assumptions I used. And completely agree about the extension of core capability to a digital strategy...real question over ability to execute (although I did factor that into my assessment ages ago).

[winner69]

Current market cap $417m - Book Value $277m ($1.86 per share)

Finance theory says the difference (market value added) is the expected future returns over its cost of capital.....hardly achieving that now if take risk into account.

So still priced to financially do heaps better than they have done recently .....like that $50m profit target is maybe out there for a reason.

I wouldn’t say thl is cheap at the moment....just reiteratingwhzt I said when share price was $6.80 and when it was $5 and when it was $4

[Lease]

Current dividend yield nearly 10%. Debt is supposed reduced by approx $70m due to fewer fleet purchase in USA.

THL will have a stronger balance sheet and pay good dividend, which should provide some support to current SP.

[BlackPeter]

Current dividend yield nearly 10%. Debt is supposed reduced by approx $70m due to fewer fleet purchase in USA.

THL will have a stronger balance sheet and pay good dividend, which should provide some support to current SP.

Classical dividend trap?

If we take the previous health scares as a template, than it might take a couple of years or more until people travel again as much as they do now. Add to that a huge backlog of unsold camper vans in a quite saturated market (all people I know who might want to buy such a thing have already one to clog up their driveway) and add on top of that a risky huge SW project they don't really have any expertise with, and earnings can go from here all over the place, but more likely down.

At some stage dividends will follow earnings. They always do.

[Lease]

Classical dividend trap?

If we take the previous health scares as a template, than it might take a couple of years or more until people travel again as much as they do now. Add to that a huge backlog of unsold camper vans in a quite saturated market (all people I know who might want to buy such a thing have already one to clog up their driveway) and add on top of that a risky huge SW project they don't really have any expertise with, and earnings can go from here all over the place, but more likely down.

At some stage dividends will follow earnings. They always do.

I said " Current dividend yield", not "future dividend yield". I assume dividend cut by half. It still has 5% much better than put money in bank.

Debt will be down substantially so THL can comfortably wait peak cycle to go over. Coronavirus should not have much impact on THL as Chinese tourists have hardly driven camper vans.

In regards to involve tech area, I think it's a right decision as it will certainly add value once succeed.

[BlackPeter]

I said " Current dividend yield", not "future dividend yield". I assume dividend cut by half. It still has 5% much better than put money in bank.


I feel with you in that regard more than you can imagine. Wrote some years ago similar posts defending MPG ... and look where they (and their nice dividends) are now.

Anyway - no need to argue, I have currently no interest in THL. Just a different view on the risks vs potential rewards I guess.



Debt will be down substantially so THL can comfortably wait peak cycle to go over. Coronavirus should not have much impact on THL as Chinese tourists have hardly driven camper vans.


True - mainland Chinese tourists won't be THL's major camper van customers ... however SARS brought a dip into all tourism activities - particularly on any depending on long haul flights. Pretty difficult to avoid these if you want to drive a camper van around NZ and live in Europe, Asia or the Americas ...

BTW- just remind me, how are these RV sales going? Sounded pretty scary around AGM time, didn't it?



In regards to involve tech area, I think it's a right decision as it will certainly add value once succeed.

If it works out, you might be correct. I used to work in the software industry and remember a figure of around 20% of large software projects which end up a success. The other 80% don't.

What makes you believe THL have what it takes to run a successful software project?

[Lease]

Wrote some years ago similar posts defending MPG ... and look where they (and their nice dividends) are now.

[/QUOTE]

Some years ago? I wrote posts defending MPG just a couple of weeks ago. Go there to have a look:)

[BlackPeter]

Some years ago? I wrote posts defending MPG just a couple of weeks ago. Go there to have a look:)

Maybe I am the faster learner :);

[Beagle]

Classical dividend trap?

If we take the previous health scares as a template, than it might take a couple of years or more until people travel again as much as they do now. Add to that a huge backlog of unsold camper vans in a quite saturated market (all people I know who might want to buy such a thing have already one to clog up their driveway) and add on top of that a risky huge SW project they don't really have any expertise with, and earnings can go from here all over the place, but more likely down.

At some stage dividends will follow earnings. They always do.

Funny you mention that. Mrs and I had a pretty long discussion about maybe buying a campervan and then realised that for the 15-20 or so days per annum we might use it, it would be cheaper to rent one and not have the thing clogging up our driveway for the other 350 days, not to forget all that capital tied up in a rapidly depreciating asset that require a lot of maintenance. Probably be some cheap rentals this Autumn for anyone prepared to take the risk.
I think you'd have to be retired and use it more than 60 days per annum to make it really worthwhile to own one, then again, at least if you own one you know its not contaminated with some virus from the last users :eek2:

[BlackPeter]

Funny you mention that. Mrs and I had a pretty long discussion about maybe buying a campervan and then realised that for the 15-20 or so days per annum we might use it, it would be cheaper to rent one and not have the thing clogging up our driveway for the other 350 days, not to forget all that capital tied up in a rapidly depreciating asset that require a lot of maintenance. Probably be some cheap rentals this Autumn for anyone prepared to take the risk.
I think you'd have to be retired and use it more than 60 days per annum to make it really worthwhile to own one, then again, at least if you own one you know its not contaminated with some virus from the last users :eek2:

Just going with open eyes through the neighborhood ;); At least five in less than one km distance from our home and I can't really remember when the last (or any) of them has been moved after appearing miraculously at some stage.

While I obviously don't fully understand the benefits of owning one of these monsters ... I clearly know about better things to do with our driveway - even just enjoying the extra space I gain by not buying one! :);

And yes, I agree - if I really would like this way to holiday, than renting them would be clearly a much more preferable and economical way to go. Problem for THL seems to be that they are running out of clients who are not able to do the numbers ...

[Beagle]

Yeap, one of the neighbours a few doors up has this exact same model https://www.trademe.co.nz/motors/caravans-motorhomes/motorhomes/7-79-metres/auction-2312785676.htm?rsqid=8c420f93a9cd428cbd1b375949f07 c6f-003 and its sits there in his driveway all year. I did notice it missing for a few days in late January though.

[BlackPeter]

Yeap, one of the neighbours a few doors up has this exact same model https://www.trademe.co.nz/motors/caravans-motorhomes/motorhomes/7-79-metres/auction-2312785676.htm?rsqid=8c420f93a9cd428cbd1b375949f07 c6f-003 and its sits there in his driveway all year. I did notice it missing for a few days in late January though.

Jeez - 156k! That's assuming my target portfolio performance of 8% (often better, but hey) an annual cost of more than $12,000 just for lost income ...

I recon I could rent for the 12k lost interest per year alone already much more camper van than I ever would want to use ... and I assume these monsters need on top of the lost interest as well an annual service, repairs, come with an insurance and re-licence bill and provide on top of that a juicy capital loss (depreciation) every year. Talk about burning money ...

[Lease]

Just going with open eyes through the neighborhood ;); At least five in less than one km distance from our home and I can't really remember when the last (or any) of them has been moved after appearing miraculously at some stage.

While I obviously don't fully understand the benefits of owning one of these monsters ... I clearly know about better things to do with our driveway - even just enjoying the extra space I gain by not buying one! :);

And yes, I agree - if I really would like this way to holiday, than renting them would be clearly a much more preferable and economical way to go. Problem for THL seems to be that they are running out of clients who are not able to do the numbers ...

Your personal preference may not paint the true picture. THL Motorhome Fleet sales have been up year by year since 2012 in New Zealand. If people's thought like you, how can THL achieve increased sales?

This is a cyclical business and surely now it's passed peak. THL need to wait the industry bottom out and bounce again.

[BlackPeter]

Your personal preference may not paint the true picture. THL Motorhome Fleet sales have been up year by year since 2012 in New Zealand. If people's thought like you, how can THL achieve increased sales?

This is a cyclical business and surely now it's passed peak. THL need to wait the industry bottom out and bounce again.

I never claimed that everybody thinks like I do ... hey, this would be terrible, wouldn't it?

I indicated however that the market of people who want to buy such a thing might be saturated in tiny NZ ... and given that these things will occupy the space in your driveway for a long time, people rarely feel the urge to add a second or third motor home to their fleet ...

Sure - there was an initial surge to fill all the driveways who have been in need, but now it it might take a long time for THL to find new clients interested in buying another motor home.

Anyway - good luck to all S/H;

[Beagle]

Jeez - 156k! That's assuming my target portfolio performance of 8% (often better, but hey) an annual cost of more than $12,000 just for lost income ...

I recon I could rent for the 12k lost interest per year alone already much more camper van than I ever would want to use ... and I assume these monsters need on top of the lost interest as well an annual service, repairs, come with an insurance and re-licence bill and provide on top of that a juicy capital loss (depreciation) every year. Talk about burning money ...

Exactly BP...the true cost including lost income and depreciation would very likely exceed $25K per annum. Assuming $400 per day to rent a very good one in peak season that's more than 60 days per annum ! Like I said, the numbers don't work unless you are retired and a real campervan enthusiast.

[iceman]

Exactly BP...the true cost including lost income and depreciation would very likely exceed $25K per annum. Assuming $400 per day to rent a very good one in peak season that's more than 60 days per annum ! Like I said, the numbers don't work unless you are retired and a real campervan enthusiast.

I stupidly bought a caravan for rental stationed in a very busy UK holiday park a couple of years ago and have experienced exactly what you are talking about depreciation, lacklustre income and opportunity cost. I will finish the 5 year contract, then cut my losses and never go near anything like this again.

[Beagle]

I stupidly bought a caravan for rental stationed in a very busy UK holiday park a couple of years ago and have experienced exactly what you are talking about depreciation, lacklustre income and opportunity cost. I will finish the 5 year contract, then cut my losses and never go near anything like this again.

Its okay mate. I think many of us have thrown around money on ill advised recreational / luxury items and learned some interesting lessons the hard way :)

[winner69]

thl saying something ...not too bad

At least they have an excuse now for falling profits ...but FY21 looking promising

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/347998/316214.pdf

[winner69]

Expected NPAT F20 now $24m (probably the first best guess) - last year $30m

Suppose not too bad ..only 20% down

Probably all this new built into the share price already ..market rather forgiving

But don’t forget thl’s Book Value is $1.90 odd

[Sideshow Bob]

Expected NPAT F20 now $24m (probably the first best guess) - last year $30m

Suppose not too bad ..only 20% down

Probably all this new built into the share price already ..market rather forgiving

But don’t forget thl’s Book Value is $1.90 odd

Share price already looks like a ski slope.

Last year made $17.5m in 1H, so only $12.3 in 2H. Would have a good idea on 1H now, so the results will be interesting when looking at their latest guidance.

[bull....]

there next results mid yr will be the ugly ones

[Getty]

there will be no problem whatsoever disposing of surplus camper vans.
All it will take is for Rob Campbell to suggest to Jacinda, that instead of paying $140 a nite, which is $51100 pa to put homeless into motels, that she buy up some campers, and the homeless can park up in a hotel or casino carpark, or near a tinny house or beach reserve near you, think of the savings...
Local councils are racing each other to set up facilities for freedom campers, Taupo even has 3 rangers who do nothing else but check on the welfare of freedom campers, so the master plan is complete.
Shane Jones might even throw in some regional cash to speed things up.
The Chinese who recently paid @ $4 per share will prop up any surplus by sending a few to stay at vans stationed at Wanaka & Queenstown waterfronts.
All it takes is a wee bit of lateral thinking.

[bull....]

there will be no problem whatsoever disposing of surplus camper vans.
All it will take is for Rob Campbell to suggest to Jacinda, that instead of paying $140 a nite, which is $51100 pa to put homeless into motels, that she buy up some campers, and the homeless can park up in a hotel or casino carpark, or near a tinny house or beach reserve near you, think of the savings...
Local councils are racing each other to set up facilities for freedom campers, Taupo even has 3 rangers who do nothing else but check on the welfare of freedom campers, so the master plan is complete.
Shane Jones might even throw in some regional cash to speed things up.
The Chinese who recently paid @ $4 per share will prop up any surplus by sending a few to stay at vans stationed at Wanaka & Queenstown waterfronts.
All it takes is a wee bit of lateral thinking.

like the thinking , must be costing a bomb to house people in motels. probably could have built 10 apartment buildings with the mmoney wasted on motels

[bottomfeeder]

Everyone should buy a campervan from thl and head for the hills. Campervans would be the ideal home when the "walking dead" arrive.
In any case, at least they are making a profit in difficult times, can see an upside when things improve.

[mikeybycrikey]

I'm wondering what happens in a few weeks when they announce their profit and also announce a cut to the dividend. I'm not saying it will happen but how long can they go paying out more in dividends than they are making in profits? Cash will take a hit with $24m in profit and $35m in dividends. Or maybe I'm missing something.

[winner69]

I'm wondering what happens in a few weeks when they announce their profit and also announce a cut to the dividend. I'm not saying it will happen but how long can they go paying out more in dividends than they are making in profits? Cash will take a hit with $24m in profit and $35m in dividends. Or maybe I'm missing something.

When it comes to divies they add back the Togo losses and pay 75% to 90% of that adjusted npat (last year Togo was about $10m)

So they still might be able to squeeze out 27 cent divie ....even if they use rhe old we have confidence in the future trick.

[Schrodinger]

Watching the trading in this one and its clear most of the people trading this have no idea what they are doing. The spread between the announcement and now in terms of rebound is comical. 16% spread between $2.50 and 2.90 if you take $2.50 as a base.

[winner69]

Watching the trading in this one and its clear most of the people trading this have no idea what they are doing. The spread between the announcement and now in terms of rebound is comical. 16% spread between $2.50 and 2.90 if you take $2.50 as a base.

Just bargain hunters coming out to play. thl have a loyal band of followers.

Maybe it’s those buying in the 280’s are the ones who have ‘no idea what they are doing’

[Schrodinger]

Well if you look at 8.30am when the announcement came out and then we have 90 mins before first trade and it immediately starts/drops to $2.50 then based on no news increases to near $2.90 I think its clear people are out of their minds.

[winner69]

Well if you look at 8.30am when the announcement came out and then we have 90 mins before first trade and it immediately starts/drops to $2.50 then based on no news increases to near $2.90 I think its clear people are out of their minds.

Those that panicked and sold at open maybe now regretting it but they had good reason to sell though.

The buyers patting themselves on the back for being brave and buying believing things not too bad


Market is a funny place eh.

[Beagle]

$24m is eps of 16.2 cps. In recent years this has traded on a PE generally around 18 in line with expectations this is a growing tourism business.

The market appears to be looking right through to the other side of the current risks. Suppose it all depends how far you look out into the future.

Motorhome sales have been quite strong and robust in the US, Australia and N.Z. while the market was booming but this latest confidence sapping virus if it lingers on and on could really suck the life out of the confidence of consumers and if that's the case the first thing to get the chop is big ticket discretionary purchases like campervans.

In the long run Rob Campbell might get his $50m profit someday but that's no year anytime soon that I can foresee.
If present issues linger on they are unlikely to be able to match $24m in FY21.
There's still a lot of risk to the downside in my opinion.

[bottomfeeder]

Confuses me, when I saw the market open, I thought just let it settle and I am in. Then I had to do something. Just went back on and see the jump to nearly $3. So I sold out my holding at $2.96. Now there is still demand. Maybe a takeover coming up. Interesting to see the market up to the results disclosure. Up or Down. I am betting down.

[golden city]

If a takeover present it must be over 4 dollar to 4.50 to have a chance

[winner69]

I think most punters are relieved that the ‘downgrade’ wasn’t worse.

thl has a band of loyal followers, that helps

[Beagle]

New Zealand and Australia have had solid performances in vehicle sales from both a volume and margin perspective. Recent activity in the USA vehicle sales consumer shows has been positive and provides greater confidence of margin and volume recovery going into FY21.
The key words are "have had"...past tense. Of course they have had a solid few months with camper resales the sharemarket has been booming.
This can easily turn on a dime though so maybe their confidence for FY21 is misplaced ?

[bottomfeeder]

Oops, may have judged it prematurely.

[Beagle]

Oops, may have judged it prematurely.

Bring up a 2 year chart mate. The trend for holders is most definitely not your friend. Probably a relief rally. One should keep in mind that this company and its activities (and Air New Zealand for that matter) are directly in the path of the storm and its pure guesswork how severely its effects will be felt. Risk averse investors will look at the current year PE of about 18.5 and wonder what happy pills people were on today.

[winner69]

Bring up a 2 year chart mate. The trend for holders is most definitely not your friend. Probably a relief rally. One should keep in mind that this company and its activities (and Air New Zealand for that matter) are directly in the path of the storm and its pure guesswork how severely its effects will be felt. Risk averse investors will look at the current year PE of about 18.5 and wonder what happy pills people were on today.

..they had taken 4 UltraBlis

[winner69]

NZSA did a piece on thl and their outrageous dividends of late

A bit here:

At the end of the five years,THL asked its shareholders to contribute $50m towards an equity raise, which is remarkably close to the $48m cash paid out in unimputed fully taxable dividends. Had the company not paid the fully taxable component of the dividend, the increase in retained earnings would have made the equity raise unnecessary.

The sad part about this story is that while the shareholders received $52m in dividends, it was taxable. ........After the shareholders had stumped up $50m for the equity raise, they are left out of pocket by an amount approaching $17m compared to their situation had THL not paid the unimputed portion of the dividend,


Is worthwhile joint NZ Shareholders Association if you are not already a member. Doesn’t cost much.

[winner69]

Yes Beagle - a huge sigh of relief yesterday when thl said full year npat about $24m.

After reading and listening to the media and reading Sharetrader many punters thought the worse.

As the Pie Funds man said in The NZ Herald -History shows pandemics don't cause crashes

[BlackPeter]

Is worthwhile joint NZ Shareholders Association if you are not already a member. Doesn’t cost much.

I second that ... and it is easy to join: http://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/members.cfm

[Beagle]

..they had taken 4 UltraBlis
:lol: :lol:



A bit here:

At the end of the five years,THL asked its shareholders to contribute $50m towards an equity raise, which is remarkably close to the $48m cash paid out in unimputed fully taxable dividends. Had the company not paid the fully taxable component of the dividend, the increase in retained earnings would have made the equity raise unnecessary.

The sad part about this story is that while the shareholders received $52m in dividends, it was taxable. ........After the shareholders had stumped up $50m for the equity raise, they are left out of pocket by an amount approaching $17m compared to their situation had THL not paid the unimputed portion of the dividend,
.
WOW...its quite clear who the real winner is from their well intentioned by obviously misguided dividend policy.

[winner69]

We could see thl at $3.50 tomorrow

Fear around virus impact on thl gone and markets happy as can be

[BlackPeter]

I like to check from time to time how good the analysts are doing their job, and why not start with such a stellar company like THL used to be?

In January 2019 the peak THL share price was $5.15 and analyst consensus for January 2020 was $5.64 - i.e. they expected THL to gradually improve. Their recommendation of "slight outperform" at that time (6.9/10) matched their consensus.

Peak THL share price in January was $3.45 (yep, this was the glorious times), i.e. 33% down to the peak January 2019 price and 39% under their consensus prediction and the stock under performed the NZX50 by roughly 70% in the last 12 months. Ouch.

I guess this is a pretty shameful 0:2 against the analysts ...

[winner69]

I like to check from time to time how good the analysts are doing their job, and why not start with such a stellar company like THL used to be?

In January 2019 the peak THL share price was $5.15 and analyst consensus for January 2020 was $5.64 - i.e. they expected THL to gradually improve. Their recommendation of "slight outperform" at that time (6.9/10) matched their consensus.

Today the THL share price is at $2.90 (i.e. 44% down to the peak January 2019 price) and the stock under performed the NZX50 by roughly 70%. Ouch.

I guess this is a pretty shameful 0:1 for the analysts ...

What’s consensus now BP

[Beagle]

I like to check from time to time how good the analysts are doing their job, and why not start with such a stellar company like THL used to be?

In January 2019 the peak THL share price was $5.15 and analyst consensus for January 2020 was $5.64 - i.e. they expected THL to gradually improve. Their recommendation of "slight outperform" at that time (6.9/10) matched their consensus.

Today the THL share price is at $2.90 (i.e. 44% down to the peak January 2019 price and 51% under their consensus prediction) and the stock under performed the NZX50 by roughly 70%. Ouch.

I guess this is a pretty shameful 0:2 against the analysts ...

For sure as you drive around in your campervan it might be nice to have an app for suggestions to optimise your experience, (people are so hooked into social media and review sites they have probably mapped out their journey and most activities prior to departure), but it does beg the question of how many tens of millions will they throw down this very deep rat hole on this unproven experiment ? I think analysts fell into the classic trap of Rob Campbell has so much credibility his plan must be a really good one, even if they didn't understand it themselves !

[winner69]

For sure as you drive around in your campervan it might be nice to have an app for suggestions to optimise your experience, (people are so hooked into social media and review sites they have probably mapped out their journey and most activities prior to departure), but it does beg the question of how many tens of millions will they throw down this very deep rat hole on this unproven experiment ? I think analysts fell into the classic trap of Rob Campbell has so much credibility his plan must be a really good one, even if they didn't understand it themselves !

You don’t get it beagle ...remember Robs sermon from 18 months ago about vitality being necessary to thrive in a changing market.p and quoting the novelist F Scott Fitzgerald as saying “vitality shows not only in the ability to persist but the ability to start over”. That captures what we are trying he said.

So it’s all OK at the moment.

[Beagle]

No, I don't "get it" so I must be a dumb dog. All I want is a modern, spacious, well equipped, reliable and clean campervan in the summer season at a reasonable price.

[BlackPeter]

What’s consensus now BP

latest consensus is $3.77 and recommendation between "outperform" and "buy", so yes, consensus dropped a bit - maybe we should revisit these predictions in 12 months, shall we?

[Beagle]

Yes lets do that. For my money $1.77 a year hence if the virus becomes a worldwide pandemic and $3.00 if it doesn't, mid point if this is a 50/50 binary outcome, call it $2.39 but I wouldn't pay a cent over $2 at present.

[peat]

For sure as you drive around in your campervan it might be nice to have an app for suggestions to optimise your experience, (people are so hooked into social media and review sites they have probably mapped out their journey and most activities prior to departure), but it does beg the question of how many tens of millions will they throw down this very deep rat hole on this unproven experiment ?

This is where economies of scale really help and I thought THL was getting that with its US arm.
It shouldn't be that expensive to develop something useable and then slowly improve it.
Geez, everyones got an app these days.

[Beagle]

This is where economies of scale really help and I thought THL was getting that with its US arm.
It shouldn't be that expensive to develop something useable and then slowly improve it.
Geez, everyones got an app these days.

Exactly. For my liking, I'd just prefer a decent memory foam topper pad on the beds and they can keep their silly app. Difficult to get a decent sleep on hard, thinly padded beds.

[Sideshow Bob]

Plenty of THL campers at the Coast to Coast at the weekend.

Friend from Auckland rented one - pile of poo to drive, gearbox rubbish, one headlight out, battery went flat, and the last people to rent it had given it a decent scrape.

[winner69]

Good the government ‘investing’ $11m in tourism to help it out

‘Invest’ a good term in this context eh

[Scrunch]

Good the government ‘investing’ $11m in tourism to help it out

‘Invest’ a good term in this context eh
A drop in the ocean. When the coronavirus's impacts are many hundreds of millions.

[BlackPeter]

A drop in the ocean. When the coronavirus's impacts are many hundreds of millions.

True - but then I just heard that people required to self quarantine in New Zealand need to live in the streets, given that they can't find suitable accommodation.

THL could rent out their camper vans for this purpose, couldn't they?

The opportunities are endless ...

[winner69]

True - but then I just heard that people required to self quarantine in New Zealand need to live in the streets, given that they can't find suitable accommodation.

THL could rent out their camper vans for this purpose, couldn't they?

The opportunities are endless ...

Government seems keener on corporate welfare than social welfare

[Beagle]

Heaps of campers are being used up at Whangaparoa military base to quarantine the people they evacuated from Wuhan.

[winner69]

Thl Board Meeting

[Beagle]

Thl Board Meeting

:lol: :lol: Absolute classic, you're on top form today !!

[winner69]

:lol: :lol: Absolute classic, you're on top form today !!

Tom is very good with his cartoons

He cuts to the chase in a very simple way.

[bull....]

very surprised they are paying a dividend , i would have thought debt reduction was paramount in such an uncertain future

[winner69]

very surprised they are paying a dividend , i would have thought debt reduction was paramount in such an uncertain future

Small print hints at 20 cents for FY20

They know it’s divie yield that supports the share price

[bull....]

Small print hints at 20 cents for FY20

They know it’s divie yield that supports the share price

so true , but what if in worst case senario people stop travelling this could be thl shareholders last ever dividend

[winner69]

All going well - half year out
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/349130/317771.pdf

A cynic would read the Financing Cash Flows bit as ‘we seduced shareholders to give us another $50m from which we gave the Bank $33m and gave $17m back to shareholders’

And by the Way Free Cash Flow was about negative $10m

[winner69]

so true , but what if in worst case senario people stop travelling this could be thl shareholders last ever dividend

They expect ‘some impact’ from Covid-19 in H220

Doesn’t sound too bad

[Beagle]

All going well - half year out
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/349130/317771.pdf

A cynic would read the Financing Cash Flows bit as ‘we seduced shareholders to give us another $50m from which we gave the Bank $33m and gave $17m back to shareholders’

And by the Way Free Cash Flow was about negative $10m

Good they gave us some nice images of Southern lakes ands mountains from campervans as I doubt many will be bothering to rent a camper and take in those views for themselves in the near future. A lot of people are going to stop flying long haul and renting campervans, surely this is perfectly clear.
"thl is reviewing the nature of its future investment into Togo Group". More than $7 million loss from this in the current half, up more than 30% on pcp. Rob Campbell needs to bite the bullet and cauterize this wound immediately, before it gets even worse.

I am a cynic, the dividends are an illusion and have been for years. They give partially imputed dividends with one hand, and then the Govt takes a slice and then take with capital raise with the other. Only winner is the Govt. Time for Rob to retire...all his companies struggling, THL, SUM and SKC. Too much for a portly old man to cope with.

[bottomfeeder]

Maybe its time to stay home and see our own country. Rent a campervan. Just hope aus, nz, and us are thinking that the best holiday is an adventure at home.

[winner69]

I assess thl return on invested capital to be about 7% — which is about its weighted cost of capital (PWC)

Accordingly not adding any economic profit, ie not anything over its cost of capital.

Book value is $2.13 ...that’s what many finance guys would say thl should be valued at.

[bottomfeeder]

Sold my THL holding today, just about at breakeven. I have concerns as to where TOGO is going (down the gurgler) as well as the gloworm caves (directed at overseas visitors mainly). Will anyone be spending money on campervans in a recession (unlikely). Hated to do this as I thought they had some potential.

[Beagle]

Sold my THL holding today, just about at breakeven. I have concerns as to where TOGO is going (down the gurgler) as well as the gloworm caves (directed at overseas visitors mainly). Will anyone be spending money on campervans in a recession (unlikely). Hated to do this as I thought they had some potential.

Add this question to your list. Even if they still want to travel and have the means to do so will anyone want to rent a campervan when they're not sure if the last users had the virus and not sure how well its been cleaned ?

[Beagle]

Good analysis, but no way I would pay that much in the current environment. Still have $181 m of net debt. Their latest presentation says this level of net debt gives them headroom for acquisitions and growth initiatives! Go figure! Nothing like sticking to your knitting and battening down the hatches at a time when your industry has a massive demand drop. Question managements grip on reality at this point.

Rob Campbell has really stuck the jackpot. THL and SKC will both be coming under real pressure and even SUM has stopped growing. I wouldn't want his workload at the best of times but especially not now. Can't help wondering how clearly he is thinking or how deep his perceptiveness is in all his directors roles at present or even how well he is really coping with that statement you referenced.

[winner69]

Rob talks about vitality a lot ....so no worries with thl

[BlackPeter]

Add this question to your list. Even if they still want to travel and have the means to do so will anyone want to rent a campervan when they're not sure if the last users had the virus and not sure how well its been cleaned ?

True, but admittedly - if I think how our NZ medical system tends to clean the rooms, then maybe a camper van might be the better option. I remember a time when my wife had an infection during chemotherapy (which is life threatening due to an reduced immune system during this time) and they put us to wait into a room which was clearly neither tidied up nor cleaned after the last patient. Even his (or her) supper was still spread across the room.

Even if THL does absolutely nothing to their returned camper vans they still could claim that they are cleaner than some New Zealand hospitals ...

If you are really sick - better pick up a camper van and isolate yourself from the rest of the world!

[Leftfield]

Sold my THL holding today, just about at breakeven. I have concerns as to where TOGO is going (down the gurgler) as well as the gloworm caves (directed at overseas visitors mainly). Will anyone be spending money on campervans in a recession (unlikely). Hated to do this as I thought they had some potential.

FWIW I sold mine in Oct 2018 in the mid $5.00's for much the same reasons. In addition, earlier that year I 'sampled' their USA hire vehicles and their digital offerings while on an extended holiday. Neither impressed me, and then after I returned to NZ, from a TA perspective the SP entered 'death cross' territory. Hence my selling.

Nothing has happened since then to change my view of THL, and I am glad I'm out.

I'm sure you are better out given the current Coronavirus scenario's which will place additional financial woes on the company.

[winner69]

thl to do some number guessing tomorrow

When punters have gone home for the weekend they’ll do the late Friday and hope nobody notices trick about how disasterous the US is going to be for them

[iceman]

thl to do some number guessing tomorrow

When punters have gone home for the weekend they’ll do the late Friday and hope nobody notices trick about how disasterous the US is going to be for them

Can not see how it is remotely possible for them to come up with a number. Would be much more honest to suspend the current forecast and say they have no idea what the future will bring.

[Scrunch]

thl to do some number guessing tomorrow

When punters have gone home for the weekend they’ll do the late Friday and hope nobody notices trick about how disasterous the US is going to be for them

You are right it will be a bit of a guess. To be fair they were quick of the mark to say they would give an update to the market following the America's move.

[winner69]

You are right it will be a bit of a guess. To be fair they were quick of the mark to say they would give an update to the market following the America's move.

Yep, confirmed it’s too hard to guess people how bad

You’ve got to love the reassurance - of the FY20 year...”.. thl has a strong balance sheet with low debt levels, significant undrawn facilities and high quality asset backing.”

Yep got some debt but we can borrow heaps if we need to keep going

[winner69]

....and enough cash to pay $15m in divies early May

[Beagle]

In light of the new travel restrictions announced related to the COVID-19 pandemic, thl has reviewed its previous FY20 NPAT guidance of around $24M. While we believe that this remains a possibility, there are too many uncertainties for this to remain as thl’s guidance. As a result we do not expect to provide financial guidance for the remainder of the FY20 year.
Despite the challenges facing the industry, thl has a strong balance sheet with low debt levels, significant undrawn facilities and high quality asset backing.

Really ????

[BlackPeter]

Really ????

Just wondering whether they would need to revalue the significant stock of preloved campervans they have. I suspect they might not age that well and a lack of demand won't help either to push the value up.

[Beagle]

Just wondering whether they would need to revalue the significant stock of preloved campervans they have. I suspect they might not age that well and a lack of demand won't help either to push the value up.

They won't revalue them down and probably are not required too by their auditors but who is going to buy one in the current environment other than at a rock bottom extreme bargain price ?

[Filthy]

hmm spending time alone in a campervan (doing a staycation) rather than flying overseas or hanging around in crowds is actually starting to look rather appealing....haha

[winner69]

thl finally down to something like fair value based on returns made on capital ....that’s assuming a normal world

Obviously not normal at the moment so one should expect even more deep cuts to the shareprice from here.

But no worries ...thl have a strong balance sheet and ability to borrow more.

[Beagle]

Should be good buying at half NTA...must add them to my Christmas stocking wish list at 90 cents.

[Justin]

their campervans can use for isolation unit，and holiday parks can turn to isolation park as well.

[BlackPeter]

their campervans can use for isolation unit，and holiday parks can turn to isolation park as well.

True, but not much fun in winter. As well - there are plenty of empty hotels around which would make better isolation units as well as make shift hospitals ...

[Justin]

True, but not much fun in winter. As well - there are plenty of empty hotels around which would make better isolation units as well as make shift hospitals ...

Hotels if they got central aircon system ，its not safe for isolation.:mellow:

[Beagle]

Yeah right! Love the irony. Wonder if management will get a bit more of a grip on reality this week.

Rob Campbell must be finding it extremely tough to get any sleep at night. All his chairman roles are getting smashed, THL, SKC and SUM. He's really hit the "jackpot".

[bull....]

could be a high risk contender to go bust , to much debt not enough tourists to make money

[bottomfeeder]

Sold my THL holding today, just about at breakeven. I have concerns as to where TOGO is going (down the gurgler) as well as the gloworm caves (directed at overseas visitors mainly). Will anyone be spending money on campervans in a recession (unlikely). Hated to do this as I thought they had some potential.

Well with the benefit of hindsight, I dodged a $12,000 bullet with THL. Mind some of my other investmrnts arent doing that well.

[Sideshow Bob]

Well with the benefit of hindsight, I dodged a $12,000 bullet with THL. Mind some of my other investmrnts arent doing that well.

Plenty of opportunity for bottomfeeding to come.....

[whatsup]

Plenty of opportunity for bottomfeeding to come.....

Really depend on the debt that they are carrying atm both short term and long term !

[bottomfeeder]

At least independent investors can make decisions as to buy or sell on the spot. Fund managers have to have a meeting, get a consensus, and get signed approvals before they can make a decision That saved me on this one. What a difference a few days make.

[bull....]

Really depend on the debt that they are carrying atm both short term and long term !

think they make heaps from europeans cant see them coming here now . big dent in there profits. US will be the same. only hope is nz and aus doing heaps more internal travel

[Gerald]

Should be good buying at half NTA...must add them to my Christmas stocking wish list at 90 cents.

Might be there before easter.

[bull....]

why have they not cancelled the dividend ?

[Filthy]

why have they not cancelled the dividend ?

it'll come. just a bit slow

[Arbroath]

why have they not cancelled the dividend ?

I'm a small holder still and I want it cancelled. That $15m is much better in the company right now than shareholders pockets.
It will happen, just like AIA as THL is still cum dividend.
AIR is ex-dividend so probably much trickier legally. The Govt will get there $65m dividend and net it off against the $2b bailout...funny except its not really.

[whatsup]

I well remember THL being in the .50-.60 range in the mid 1980's , lets hope that it does not drift back to that level !.

IMO the question is, what is their current short and long term debt, at what level will tourism return eventually and what amount of fixed overheads do they have. A reduction in interest rates can help but knowing banks as I do once the company is under financial stress they do not always pass on those lower rates.

[ratkin]

Te rate this thing is declining it will be down to zero in a week

[bull....]

they still havnt cancelled dividend . crazy stuff

[winner69]

In spite of the hype over the years it’s obvious now thl never really had a viable business model.

Just track their cash flows through a complete business cycle will show why.

[Filthy]

it'll come. just a bit slow

cancelled. good move.

[winner69]

Things looking pretty dire in thl land

Still can borrow another $109m

If you are going to crash and burn may as well do it big time eh

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350294

[whatsup]

I well remember THL being in the .50-.60 range in the mid 1980's , lets hope that it does not drift back to that level !.

IMO the question is, what is their current short and long term debt, at what level will tourism return eventually and what amount of fixed overheads do they have. A reduction in interest rates can help but knowing banks as I do once the company is under financial stress they do not always pass on those lower rates.

At lease todays ann is a start !

[winner69]

I well remember THL being in the .50-.60 range in the mid 1980's , lets hope that it does not drift back to that level !.

IMO the question is, what is their current short and long term debt, at what level will tourism return eventually and what amount of fixed overheads do they have. A reduction in interest rates can help but knowing banks as I do once the company is under financial stress they do not always pass on those lower rates.

It’ll be that 50 to 60 range pretty soon I reckon

And very likely worthless when the receivers / administrators are called in

[percy]

It’ll be that 50 to 60 range pretty soon I reckon

And very likely worthless when the receivers / administrators are called in

May have to get Turners to sell the camper vans.?

[Lola]

may have to get turners to sell the camper vans.?

govt should buy the lot for the homeless.

[macduffy]

May have to get Turners to sell the camper vans.?

Reminiscent of the Trans Tours episode all those years ago!

[Sideshow Bob]

Or the infected.

They could be the Corona Campers! :scared:

[Beagle]

Things looking pretty dire in thl land

Still can borrow another $109m

If you are going to crash and burn may as well do it big time eh

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350294

Might be some cheap ex rental camper vans for sale this winter...b.y.o. disinfectant

[Gill]

The announcement says they had a net tangible asset of $1.83 in Dec 2019 does anyone know what exactly that was? Physical asset or did they value their IP or goodwill etc as well? Can the current NTA value be found somehow? TIA

[BlackPeter]

The announcement says they had a net tangible asset of $1.83 in Dec 2019 does anyone know what exactly that was? Physical asset or did they value their IP or goodwill etc as well? Can the current NTA value be found somehow? TIA

Start with page 8 of their Interims Report :):

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/349130/317772.pdf

[blackcap]

Start with page 8 of their Interims Report :):

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/349130/317772.pdf

Thats sickening reading. Property plant and equipment at $400m. Current Liabilities $71m offset by trade and rec of $31 and inventories? of $55m. NOt much wiggle room there. And non-current liabilities are $280m with non current assets made up largely by the big elephant of PPE.

I would steer well clear for the foreseeable future.

[BlackPeter]

Thats sickening reading. Property plant and equipment at $400m. Current Liabilities $71m offset by trade and rec of $31 and inventories? of $55m. NOt much wiggle room there. And non-current liabilities are $280m with non current assets made up largely by the big elephant of PPE.

I would steer well clear for the foreseeable future.

Agree. As well not quite sure how quickly their plant and equipment depreciates if neither used nor needed. How much value does a $150k camper van lose per year for just standing outside in the rain and not earning money?

[blackcap]

Agree. As well not quite sure how quickly their plant and equipment depreciates if neither used nor needed. How much value does a $150k camper van lose per year for just standing outside in the rain and not earning money?

The bit that worries me is how much can you realise from a $150k camper when no one wants one. If you had to sell half your stock, I dare say you might get a lot less than book value in the current climate.

[Beagle]

They can't sell them and this has been a big issue in normal times, now badly exacerbated by a global recession that's already underway.

There's NTA and then there's net realisable value and I am with you guys, they're very different numbers.

[whatsup]

I well remember THL being in the .50-.60 range in the mid 1980's , lets hope that it does not drift back to that level !.

IMO the question is, what is their current short and long term debt, at what level will tourism return eventually and what amount of fixed overheads do they have. A reduction in interest rates can help but knowing banks as I do once the company is under financial stress they do not always pass on those lower rates.

Well well well .60 atm, not good !!

[Beagle]

Half priced campervan purchase this winter anyone ? I think they might be looking to shed some of their campervans...or maybe they'll be in hot demand from the Govt as quarantine facilities ? Who knows ?, flip a coin.

[Arbroath]

Half priced campervan purchase this winter anyone ? I think they might be looking to shed some of their campervans...or maybe they'll be in hot demand from the Govt as quarantine facilities ? Who knows ?, flip a coin.

On CNN a couple of days ago they showed some El Monte campervans that I think the San Francisco city council had hired to isolate the homeless who were sick....

[Beagle]

On CNN a couple of days ago they showed some El Monte campervans that I think the San Francisco city council had hired to isolate the homeless who were sick....

Yeah, there were a lot out at the Whangaparaoa Military base a few weeks ago which were used for quarantine purposes.
Who knows, maybe that's the thing that saves this company from bankruptcy because without that they look shikkered to me.

[RupertBear]

Cheaper than chips now....perhaps they will get taken over ...before they go bust....

[oldtech]

Seems like such a long time ago I bought into this at between $4.87 and $6.02 ... proving the old adage that past performance is no guarantee of future perfromance, I had looked at the chart and was pleased to see that it had been in a steady uptrend for four years ... sold at $4.35.

Really feeling for all holders.

[mikeybycrikey]

I haven't read this yet but here is an interview with the CEO with their expectation of zero revenue: https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/03/24/1097275/planning-for-zero-tourists-zero-revenue. I'm sure it will be grim reading.

[Beagle]

I'm sad to say, I think they face an incredibly tough time ahead and they may not survive this. Crucial to this will be how flexible their banks are and how supportive the Govt is.

[Playa]

I'm sad to say, I think they face an incredibly tough time ahead and they may not survive this. Crucial to this will be how flexible their banks are and how supportive the Govt is.Long time reader for this forum and finally joined,this is my first post.
Many companies are sadly in the same boat,I hope they all survive but some obviously wont.I think if THL do survive and get to the other side of this,tourist numbers will be booming like never before,and profits will be soaring like never before.In saying that I wont be jumping in and taking the risk even at these levels.

[BlackPeter]

Long time reader for this forum and finally joined,this is my first post.
Many companies are sadly in the same boat,I hope they all survive but some obviously wont.I think if THL do survive and get to the other side of this,tourist numbers will be booming like never before,and profits will be soaring like never before.In saying that I wont be jumping in and taking the risk even at these levels.

Hi Playa (beach?), welcome to the forum. Mucho gusto.

Agree with your assessment of "jumping in" on THL - they might be cheap at the moment, but don't look like good value to me.

Interested though why you think that tourism will boom after this "experience"?

I'd expect a substantial number of carriers to bite the dust, which will probably significantly increase the cost of long haul travel. As well - unless this crisis is really short (which I think is unlikely), there will be lots of people with less money in their pockets (and jobless) - not really the people to rent a $400 a day camper van to tour some far away country ...

I would see a slow and gradual increase of tourist numbers - and hopefully not anymore up to amounts our country can't handle.

Actually not sure, whether there still will be a place for rent-a-camper-van companies which need not just to sell lots of used camper vans into a well saturated market to make their business plan work, but need to rely as well on a magic SW solution which I so far don't understand. I hope board and management does.

Time will tell. Personally I would use the longer set of barge poles to handle this stock.

How do you see the crisis play out?

[Playa]

Si,La Playa..the beach.I guess where many of us like to be.
It's hard to tell how it will play out,the last time the world saw something like this was The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 which lasted approx 20 months and just fizzled out on its own.Medicine has obviously advanced a lot since then.I think a vaccination is about 12 months away,there are many loops they have to jump through with testing which can't be rushed I hear. After a year of being told to stay home people will be jumping out of there skins to travel I think(I know I will be)Maybe about 3 months before the 12 months of vaccination testing could be the time to dip the toes back in the water when it comes to the market,but who knows for sure.?

[Scrunch]

Hi Playa (beach?), welcome to the forum. Mucho gusto.

Agree with your assessment of "jumping in" on THL - they might be cheap at the moment, but don't look like good value to me.

Interested though why you think that tourism will boom after this "experience"?

I'd expect a substantial number of carriers to bite the dust, which will probably significantly increase the cost of long haul travel. As well - unless this crisis is really short (which I think is unlikely), there will be lots of people with less money in their pockets (and jobless) - not really the people to rent a $400 a day camper van to tour some far away country ...

I would see a slow and gradual increase of tourist numbers - and hopefully not anymore up to amounts our country can't handle.

Actually not sure, whether there still will be a place for rent-a-camper-van companies which need not just to sell lots of used camper vans into a well saturated market to make their business plan work, but need to rely as well on a magic SW solution which I so far don't understand. I hope board and management does.

Time will tell. Personally I would use the longer set of barge poles to handle this stock.

How do you see the crisis play out?
While there will be lots of individuals with less cash, there will also be a lot with more than they typically had. All the expenditure that used to go on transport to work, lunches, dinners, clothes shopping (in stores, not online), activities like shows, concerts etc isn't happening. Many will have planned for an overseas holiday in the next 6 months but have ditched those plans.

Where is that saved money going to go. Some will reduce the mortgage and a few brave soles will invest it in the sharemarket. Another bunch will look to substitute international holidays with domestic one's. Say you planned to spend $20k on a holiday to the US or Europe and are now looking at a domestic one. Even if you reduced the budget to $10k, that can get you a lot and if a camper experience (and being mobile and away from city centres) looked a good idea, a $400/day price tag wouldn't be a major problem - and there will be discounts!!

I think its also a safe bet that there will be mass advertising, possibly paid for by the Government suggesting for Kiwi's to support kiwi tourism.

[iceman]

Si,La Playa..the beach.I guess where many of us like to be.
It's hard to tell how it will play out,the last time the world saw something like this was The Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 which lasted approx 20 months and just fizzled out on its own.Medicine has obviously advanced a lot since then.I think a vaccination is about 12 months away,there are many loops they have to jump through with testing which can't be rushed I hear. After a year of being told to stay home people will be jumping out of there skins to travel I think(I know I will be)Maybe about 3 months before the 12 months of vaccination testing could be the time to dip the toes back in the water when it comes to the market,but who knows for sure.?

Mi playa hoy. Ushuaia, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina.
Will be here a few weeks by the looks of it. Want to join me ???

[ATTACH=CONFIG]11151

[BlackPeter]

Mi playa hoy. Ushuaia, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina.
Will be here a few weeks by the looks of it. Want to join me ???

[ATTACH=CONFIG]11151

Dónde estás? Estas en un barco? Espero que no sea un crucero?

De todos modos - disfruta de tu estancia pero mantente seguro!

[iceman]

Not a cruise ship, just my job. Not a caravan either so not relevant to this thread Sorry about the diversion !

[Playa]

Mi playa hoy. Ushuaia, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina.
Will be here a few weeks by the looks of it. Want to join me ???

[ATTACH=CONFIG]11151
No,Gracias.Mucho Frio

[Leftfield]

THL unused camper vans stock as potential quarantine centre?? Read it here. (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120538377/coronavirus-camper-stockpile-at-christchurch-park-could-become-isolation-centre)

(Disc don't hold)

[bottomfeeder]

Share price yoyoing. Nobody knows what is happening. At least in the GFC there were some economic rules to sort of follow.

[Pricey]

I've been WFH, self-isolating and social distancing overseas for just over a week and a half now. I woke up the other day thinking, damn I need a holiday. Once things get back to normal, you will have a lot of people with built up disposal income, built up annual leave entitlement who need a holiday. THL could do well on the other side (if they make it).

A thought which might provide solace to holders (like myself).

[petty]

I've been WFH, self-isolating and social distancing overseas for just over a week and a half now. I woke up the other day thinking, damn I need a holiday. Once things get back to normal, you will have a lot of people with built up disposal income, built up annual leave entitlement who need a holiday. THL could do well on the other side (if they make it).

A thought which might provide solace to holders (like myself).

I like your optimism. And you could well be correct. However, I think the more likely scenario is that individuals following this will likely,

a) Reduce spending for some time due smaller investment holding (house and kiwisaver values likely to drop)
b) Less disposable income due to being placed on leave without pay or worse loosing job all altogether
c) Have little annual leave accrued due to business's placing staff on annual leave through shutdown.
d) small business owners will be less likely to holiday due to recovering their business losses through shutdown.

Im steering well clear of tourism companies as I think their rebound time will be longer than others.

[Sideshow Bob]

I like your optimism. And you could well be correct. However, I think the more likely scenario is that individuals following this will likely,

a) Reduce spending for some time due smaller investment holding (house and kiwisaver values likely to drop)
b) Less disposable income due to being placed on leave without pay or worse loosing job all altogether
c) Have little annual leave accrued due to business's placing staff on annual leave through shutdown.
d) small business owners will be less likely to holiday due to recovering their business losses through shutdown.

Im steering well clear of tourism companies as I think their rebound time will be longer than others.

Agree. It isn't just as simple as the lockdown in NZ and all being hunky dory. All of these other countries have to be clear and able to travel as well. Who knows when aviation will come back either - got to get here somehow.

I think it will also depend on confidence - how confident are punters going to be to get in a metal tube and fly half way around the world for a bit of a holiday.

Very big barge pole at the moment.....

[winner69]

BIG rally in travel related stocks today

Worst must be over

[macduffy]

BIG rally in travel related stocks today

Worst must be over

Really? More likely it's the allure of low-priced goods!

:mellow:

[Sideshow Bob]

Really? More likely it's the allure of low-priced goods!

:mellow:

Or cut-price holidays! ;)

[youngatheart]

??? Are those all THL camper vans?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12320229

Would certainly explain the puzzling rocketing up in share price these past 2 days...

[silverblizzard888]

??? Are those all THL camper vans?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12320229

Would certainly explain the puzzling rocketing up in share price these past 2 days...

Yup, if you zoom into the picture you can clearly make out their brands, particularly the Maui and Britz brand on the campervans

[silverblizzard888]

The amount of sharesies buyers is always comical when you see all the buyers stacked to the buy side 111 buyers for 71k shares @ $1.15

[mp52]

The amount of sharesies buyers is always comical when you see all the buyers stacked to the buy side 111 buyers for 71k shares @ $1.15

What gives rise to that? Does Sharesies set a lowly updated buy/sell price or bundle buys into minimum value trades to reduce brokerage?

[silverblizzard888]

What gives rise to that? Does Sharesies set a lowly updated buy/sell price or bundle buys into minimum value trades to reduce brokerage?

From what I've seen from my experience while testing the platform, they place orders individually but all of its in their name. Just like how bots can trade 1 or 2 shares constantly, Sharesies also can do that too since I'm sure they have worked out a cheap rate that allows them to buy and sell in a very cost efficient way.

[blackcap]

What gives rise to that? Does Sharesies set a lowly updated buy/sell price or bundle buys into minimum value trades to reduce brokerage?

Sharsies is an NZX participant. Thus they will not be paying "brokerage" for their trades. Individual sharesies members pay 0.5% per trade (from Memory). So if I purchase $20 worth of shares my brokerage is 10 cents and sharesies puts my order to market. The NZX charges sharesies whatever they do but it may be a cent? Or sharesies pay a fixed amount and can do as many transactions as they like.

[PLYNCH]

Nice to see all those THL vans being used but at what rate? $500 a day or $100 a day.
And as a tax payer who is paying the tax payer or the user?

[silverblizzard888]

Nice to see all those THL vans being used but at what rate? $500 a day or $100 a day.
And as a tax payer who is paying the tax payer or the user?

I don't imagine it to be a high rate, but it should be enough to keep people working and enough to pay wages so THL will come out of this no problem. $3 stock by the end of the year

[Sideshow Bob]

Nice to see all those THL vans being used but at what rate? $500 a day or $100 a day.
And as a tax payer who is paying the tax payer or the user?

Not putting many kms on the clock either.....

[Beagle]

I would guess there would have been a deal done based on a mutual symbiotic need that takes into account the volume and duration of hire and the time of year.
Shoulder season for a 6 berth camper for a member of the public in normal times is about $350 per day. Hiring hundreds of them for several months with no mileage being put on them, your guess is as good as mine but...maybe half normal retail rate ~ $175 per day ?

[troyvdh]

Sadly I believe the real **** has yet to meet the fan.

[allfromacell]

Ran past these today, quite a site and yes all THL Vans.

[JeremyALD]

I don't imagine it to be a high rate, but it should be enough to keep people working and enough to pay wages so THL will come out of this no problem. $3 stock by the end of the year

Remember they still have an AU and USA business, the latter of which will be absolutely hammered.

[Simsee]

I think the vans are free of charge until, presumably used. Thought that’s what I heard on the news

[Beagle]

Hope the Govt are paying for deep cleaning afterwards. I am sorry but I think its going to be a very long time until international travel and tourism gets back to anything like it was.
Maybe by 2022 they are doing 60-75% of the business they were doing ? I predict a real L shaped recovery with full recovery taking even longer.
Whether they can survive this is very much an open question in my mind.

[Snoopy]

Hope the Govt are paying for deep cleaning afterwards.


No need for cleaning. It will be years before any tourists use those vans again. Not even a COVID-19 virus can survive that long!

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

No need for cleaning. It will be years before any tourists use those vans again. Not even a COVID-19 virus can survive that long!

SNOOPY

Good point Snoopy. Are you interested in speculating on this one mate ?

[Snoopy]

Good point Snoopy. Are you interested in speculating on this one mate ?


No! I got caught in the last bailout of Air NZ by Clark/Cullen and got burnt. I resolved never to invest in tourism shares after that. Low margin, fickle, and easy for a competitor to undermine your apparent competitive advantage.

I remember the somewhat humerous quip by Warren Buffett on the subject of airlines

Each time he thought that he had found an airline company that would be able to in some way differentiate itself it wouldn't work out. Buffett made it folksy and humorous by saying that he now calls a 1-800 number and says, "Hello my name is Warren and I'm an airoholic" and that they help to talk him out of investing.

Well, I have a 'touriholic hotline' that I call when I think about investing in the tourism industry!

SNOOPY

[Balance]

No! I got caught in the last bailout of Air NZ by Clark/Cullen and got burnt. I resolved never to invest in tourism shares after that. Low margin, fickle, and easy for a competitor to undermine your apparent competitive advantage.

I remember the somewhat humerous quip by Warren Buffett on the subject of airlines

Each time he thought that he had found an airline company that would be able to in some way differentiate itself it wouldn't work out. Buffett made it folksy and humorous by saying that he now calls a 1-800 number and says, "Hello my name is Warren and I'm an airoholic" and that they help to talk him out of investing.

Well, I have a 'touriholic hotline' that I call when I think about investing in the tourism industry!

SNOOPY

Don't speak too soon!:eek2:

"Berkshire holds significant stakes in four major carriers – American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL), Delta, Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) and United. In percentage terms, Berkshire owns between 8.8% and 11.2% in the four carriers. At American, Southwest and United, Berkshire is the second-largest shareholder. Mar 17, 2020"

[BlackPeter]

Don't speak too soon!:eek2:

"Berkshire holds significant stakes in four major carriers – American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL), Delta, Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) and United. In percentage terms, Berkshire owns between 8.8% and 11.2% in the four carriers. At American, Southwest and United, Berkshire is the second-largest shareholder. Mar 17, 2020"

Warrens helpline was probably underfunded and understaffed :);

[Snoopy]

Don't speak too soon!:eek2:

"Berkshire holds significant stakes in four major carriers – American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL), Delta, Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) and United. In percentage terms, Berkshire owns between 8.8% and 11.2% in the four carriers. At American, Southwest and United, Berkshire is the second-largest shareholder. Mar 17, 2020"


Yes I read recently about Warren's change of heart on Airlines. However, I saw an article that said on 5th March 2020 Warren had lost $3b on his EOCY2019 position. That was with his stakes in the airlines down about 14%. The market decline in airline shares has subsequently extended to be three times that amount. So Warren must have lost about $9b by now. That is a big price to pay for not getting through to the airoholic hotline!

SNOOPY

[Arthur]

Bailouts coming to the US airlines that squandered so much on dividends and buybacks. Trump is trying a workaround on bailing out the tax and regulation dodging cruise industry. In my opinion Air NZ got it without lube with the loan terms, they may have agreed, but it was under duress, try that for defense in a "metoo" case. The Government borrows at near zero and is lending to them at usury rates in the current environment. Hopefully they are paying enough for the THL campers to keep it alive. None of the tourism sector chose this.

[macduffy]

THL CEO featured in an interesting interview with Jack Tame in the last segment of today's Q and A programme on TV1.

[macduffy]

The Government borrows at near zero and is lending to them at usury rates in the current environment.

But the govt takes the risk. If AIR defaults it's the govt that will have to pay back the loan.

[winner69]

THL CEO featured in an interesting interview with Jack Tame in the last segment of today's Q and A programme on TV1.

Is good interview

thought you might be interested in this, check it out on TVNZ.

http3s://www.tvnz.co.nz/shows/q-and-a/clips/the-shutdown-could-provide-a-reset-for-the-tourism-industry-tourism-holdings-ceo

[Beagle]

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/shows/q-and-a/clips/the-shutdown-could-provide-a-reset-for-the-tourism-industry-tourism-holdings-ceo

[Mr Slothbear]

Excellent interview. Thank you

[Gerald]

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/shows/q-and-a/clips/the-shutdown-could-provide-a-reset-for-the-tourism-industry-tourism-holdings-ceo

He says they have strong balance sheet so must be true :cool:

[winner69]

He says they have strong balance sheet so must be true :cool:

...and headroom to borrow heaps more

Must be true

[Beagle]

What could possibly go wrong ?

[Baa_Baa]

A glimmer of hope (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120662893/coronavirus-overseas-returnees-to-selfisolate-in-wellington-holiday-park)

[winner69]

Have thl directors always been paid in shares instead of cash?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/351088/320132.pdf

[Sideshow Bob]

Have thl directors always been paid in shares instead of cash?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/351088/320132.pdf

Bet the directors wish they did this when the price hit 55c! :scared:

[mondograss]

Well they're out of the tech business it would seem:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/351239

Highlights:
THL retains rights to the assets in Fleet, Mighway in ANZ and telematics
Takes over TOGO's shareholding in Outdoria
Get $6m from Thor, a $600k dividend for up to 4 years and Thor can buy the rest of the business for $20m
THL doesn't have to put any further money in

[Balance]

Well they're out of the tech business it would seem:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/351239

Highlights:
THL retains rights to the assets in Fleet, Mighway in ANZ and telematics
Takes over TOGO's shareholding in Outdoria
Get $6m from Thor, a $600k dividend for up to 4 years and Thor can buy the rest of the business for $20m
THL doesn't have to put any further money in

Anyone with an idea of how much of a loss THL will take from exiting this business?

Was less than a year and half ago that TOGO was going to help shape the digital future of THL!

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2018/10/29/297504/why-tourism-holdings-is-getting-out-of-tourism

[mondograss]

According to the interim report, their net interest in TOGO was $43m and that's taking into account the $22m loss they've recognised against it already. I guess they're getting some of their assets back again plus the money from Thor assuming it gets bought out but yes they've lost a lot.

[Beagle]

According to the interim report, their net interest in TOGO was $43m and that's taking into account the $22m loss they've recognised against it already. I guess they're getting some of their assets back again plus the money from Thor assuming it gets bought out but yes they've lost a lot.

Very expensive fishing expedition. Looks like the caught a couple of tiddlers.

[Balance]

Very expensive fishing expedition. Looks like the caught a couple of tiddlers.

This must be the fourth time that THL went overseas and come back to NZ with tails between its legs!

Never learn.

[JeremyALD]

As a previous shareholder who really backed THL a few years ago, the way they have gone recently really disappoints me. A few years ago they were tracking nicely, had good direction and were well and truly heading towards 50m NPAT.

Then suddenly they took a very different path, investing millions into a loss making digital business, entering and struggling in the highly competitive USA market, and then attempting to sell a successful NZ tourism business. Then they have gone about trying to adopt a new FIT busines model whilst their profits were going backwards.

Added to this increased risk and exposure they continued to increase debt and pay out large dividends, higher every year. If they didn't raise capital recently they would of been in serious strife.

[Beagle]

As a previous shareholder who really backed THL a few years ago, the way they have gone recently really disappoints me. A few years ago they were tracking nicely, had good direction and were well and truly heading towards 50m NPAT.

Then suddenly they took a very different path, investing millions into a loss making digital business, entering and struggling in the highly competitive USA market, and then attempting to sell a successful NZ tourism business. Then they have gone about trying to adopt a new FIT busines model whilst their profits were going backwards.

Added to this increased risk and exposure they continued to increase debt and pay out large dividends, higher every year. If they didn't raise capital recently they would of been in serious strife.

Totally agree. They have really lost their way and still are in very serious strife. They're presently uninvestable in my opinion.

[maccadac]

Has been making a good come back, what are peoples thoughts at the current prices? Lots of domestic travel coming up after lock down?

[Cadalac123]

Has been making a good come back, what are peoples thoughts at the current prices? Lots of domestic travel coming up after lock down?

It’s completely price action buying by institutions difficult to draw conclusions from it about future cash flows tbh

[Food4Thought]

Has been making a good come back, what are peoples thoughts at the current prices? Lots of domestic travel coming up after lock down?

Domestic travel will happen, yet many people will stay local because they simply won't have the same money to travel etc.

It will be very rough for the tourism industry if you have little cash reserve and high expenses. Cut expenses. Cut the thrills and offer value for money. There will be hard competition. It Flying a helicopter and jetboat needs numbers to pay the way of the operators overheads.

Bike trails will be a hit. Yet, less travellers, less income. It is going to be a very tough summer in 2020-2021 imo

[macduffy]

Has been making a good come back, what are peoples thoughts at the current prices? Lots of domestic travel coming up after lock down?

I don't see that anything has changed since Beagle's post of 4 April.

Do you think there'll be lots of people with the money for lots of domestic travel after the lock down - whenever that happens?

:mellow:

[Food4Thought]

Has been making a good come back, what are peoples thoughts at the current prices? Lots of domestic travel coming up after lock down?

Domestic travel will happen, yet many people will stay local because they simply won't have the same money to travel etc.

It will be very rough for the tourism industry if you have little cash reserve and high expenses. Cut expenses. Cut the thrills and offer value for money. There will be hard competition. It Flying a helicopter and jetboat needs numbers to pay the way of the operators overheads.

Bike trails will be a hit. Yet, less travellers, less income, for THL, and massively the economy. It is going to be a very tough summer in 2020-2021 imo

[nztx]

I'm left wondering the way the SP is going whether those parked up mobile campers are an undiscovered goldmine

but then after seeing AIR's volatility - perhaps it's all in seeing the THL name on the board ..

[Pricey]

I have sold out at a considerable loss at 1.15. And can rest a lot more easily now (even if it is selling at the bottom). Better to re-cycle cash into a more promising stock in the medium term and then, maybe, pick up THL once it looks like tourism is coming back (2 years?). THL have turned around the business before, so I trust they can do it again.

I think management has previously been concentrating their efforts on the managed exit of Togo to get immediate cash and now will turn their minds to a cap raising.

[nztx]

I think management has previously been concentrating their efforts on the managed exit of Togo to get immediate cash and now will turn their minds to a cap raising.


it wouldn't surprise if there was a Cap Raise, but any Tourism Sector recovery may be a fair way down the track..

[Balance]

it wouldn't surprise if there was a Cap Raise, but any Tourism Sector recovery may be a fair way down the track..

Pertinent to THL :

Lifeline for our tourism sector when (not if) Australasian bubble is created to facilitate travel between the two countries.

Will make a huge difference to both countries.

Let's hope the bubble is in time for the Queenstown ski-season.

Note that Australian tourists & travelers account for 50% of all international visitors to NZ.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/trave...9c05a352c7bf95

https://www.tourismnewzealand.com/ma...ets/australia/

[keenkiwiflyer]

The $400M budget boost will help in conjunction with the extension of the wage subsidy.

I expect more tourism related announcements by the government next week with the 20B they have not announced. I also expect more of a plan related to the Trans Tasman bubble.

I expect the price to hit 1.74 by mid next week. Just my thoughts.

[Benny1]

If nothing else you got to give the guy some points for being positive!

Who wants a cheap campervan? Just not too cheap!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12331623

[Beagle]

I think with all due respect he is far too optimistic. Business leaders should be realistic as otherwise they risk putting their business on a collision course with economic reality.
It would also start doing maintenance work in Christchurch for some of the estimated 20,000 motorhomes on New Zealand roads.
"And that's something that we've never been able to get into because we haven't had the resource and space," says Webster.[/
Hands up given the current circumstances and time of year who wants a poorly maintained ex rental campervan at only a moderate discount to its normal price ? Thanks, but no thanks and good luck with that.

Survey's are one thing, whether people actually do it is another https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12332415

[Benny1]

I think with all due respect he is far too optimistic. Business leaders should be realistic as otherwise they risk putting their business on a collision course with economic reality.
Hands up given the current circumstances and time of year who wants a poorly maintained ex rental campervan at only a moderate discount to its normal price ? Thanks, but no thanks and good luck with that.

Survey's are one thing, whether people actually do it is another https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12332415

I read that as meaning they haven't got into providing maintenance for privately owned Campervans as they only have had the capacity for maintaining their own fleet.
All vans I have rented from them seemed to have been well maintained.. Surely it would be detrimental to their own business not too look after them?

[Beagle]

Quite possible I picked up the wrong end of the stick. I don't follow this one closely but from my observations at issue for quite some time now has been their inability to sell down used campervans at acceptable prices. Quite why they would think they are now going to do this by just offering moderate discounts at the beginning of a global recession I am not sure ?

[Benny1]

Quite possible I picked up the wrong end of the stick. I don't follow this one closely but from my observations at issue for quite some time now has been their inability to sell down used campervans at acceptable prices. Quite why they would think they are now going to do this by just offering moderate discounts at the beginning of a global recession I am not sure ?
Yeah do agree with you on that!

Also in the article Grant says their price's are aimed at the international visitor market in 'normal'times for the want of a better phrase..not at locals... So are priced as such..
Does this mean that locals should always ring up and as for the local rates once the international tourism market returns to some degree of normal? As their prices aren't aimed at us?

[Beagle]

Yeah do agree with you on that!

Also in the article Grant says their price's are aimed at the international visitor market in 'normal'times for the want of a better phrase..not at locals... So are priced as such..
Does this mean that locals should always ring up and as for the local rates once the international tourism market returns to some degree of normal? As their prices aren't aimed at us?

I don't think many prices are aimed at the local and that's half the problem. Standard price for a quick spin on the shotover jet is $159 for example. Kiwi tourism operators need to understand that Kiwi's spend $Kiwi (and don't have the luxury of converting their hard earned from $US, Euro or U.K. Pounds first).
If they can adjust their pricing accordingly they'll find Kiwi's are prepared to support them, if not...

[keenkiwiflyer]

Last week, pre budget I predicted mid 1.70s for this week. I don't think it will reach quite those heights, but I do believe the 1.44 is undervalued at present.

I was expecting a bigger tourism announcement. However, as mentioned before there will be more announcements with the tourism portfolio over the coming weeks. With Europe already having their first "travel bubble", talk should start to intensify. I think the market reacted to lack of real detail in the $400M tourism assistance. Mr Kelvin Davis seems to be in quite some trouble. This also proves to be a problem for Labour given he is their deputy leader.

Thanks for sharing that article beagle. I too think he is being very optimistic, but I guess would rather hear positivism from the CEO than doom and gloom. Perhaps some realism would be good too though..

[Sideshow Bob]

I don't think many prices are aimed at the local and that's half the problem. Standard price for a quick spin on the shotover jet is $159 for example. Kiwi tourism operators need to understand that Kiwi's spend $Kiwi (and don't have the luxury of converting their hard earned from $US, Euro or U.K. Pounds first).
If they can adjust their pricing accordingly they'll find Kiwi's are prepared to support them, if not...

There was a tourism operator chief on TV the other day, stating that NZer's spend $X billion on tourism overseas (think $6.5b) and New Zealand is no more expensive that overseas countries. I'd beg to differ on that.....anyone who has been to any of the tourist hotspots would likely see this - activities are expensive.

As an aside, was in Queenstown yesterday. Was really surprised how many people were around - it was a cracker day but quite busy considering. Although most of them looked to be milling around, enjoying the sun, maybe having a coffee - not many in the shops and a lot of restaurants etc closed.

[nizzy]

Surge in sales of RVs in the USA.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-08/camping-world-surges-after-demand-for-rvs-drives-profitability

[RTM]

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/australian-tourists-may-very-well-save-new-zealand-tourism-industry-economist?auto=6157367616001

Other than looking like a film star, this guy was worth listening to.
Maybe there is some hope for our tourism industry ? PROVIDED Australia can get to a similar COVID status to NZ.

[keenkiwiflyer]

Lots more talk over the last 24 hours about the trans Tasman bubble. Australia even wanting Fiji to be included.

Should be an interesting couple of weeks. Australia kids go to school soon, a return to normal for most. More pressure will be applied to both governments to formalise I plan for travel.

[BlackPeter]

Lots more talk over the last 24 hours about the trans Tasman bubble. Australia even wanting Fiji to be included.

Should be an interesting couple of weeks. Australia kids go to school soon, a return to normal for most. More pressure will be applied to both governments to formalise I plan for travel.

Sure - but whatever it is - don't forget that the Americas (US, Mexico, South America) as well as East Europe / Near East / and Middle and north Asia (Russia, India) currently developing into the new Corona hot spots with more infected people than ever - and no interest or ability of the relevant governments to do something about it.

This means even if we are optimistic and assume that at some stage s well e.g. Taiwan and some other sensibly governed countries might be part of our travel bubble, and even if we are able to add China, we are still talking only something like 30 to 40% % of what we had before in numbers. Might help some of our tourism operators to survive, but it will take a long time until they are back to previous profits (which in THL's case have been unsustainable anyway - from memory they used to pay their dividends even in the best of times out of their capital).

[Beagle]

I think a fair percentage of Kiwi's are going to perceive that a rental motorhome is possibly a safer option than using a rental car and a wide variety of motels as one travels around the country. How many will be prepared to pay anything like the (up to $500 a day peak rate), next summer is anyone's guess but I think heavy discounting will be the norm for the foreseeable future. If they can get the cost of a decent 4-6 berth campervan down to $250 - $300 per day I think that's something Kiwi's and Australian's will embrace. Whether that sort of pricing and reduced demand is sufficient for THL to have a viable business model, frankly I wouldn't have a clue but I think we are several years away from international tourism demand returning to anything like 2019 level's, if in fact that ever happens.

[macduffy]

Fair comment, Beagle, but what are all these stray apostrophes doing in your usually cogent composition?

;)

[Southern Lad]

Some positive North American RV sentiment research post COVID published by Thor Industries, a top end RV manufacturer

https://ir.thorindustries.com/investor-resources/press-releases/press-release-details/2020/THOR-INDUSTRIES-RELEASES-NORTH-AMERICAN-RV-CONSUMER-SURVEY-REPORT/default.aspx

While they have a vested interest, a lift in sentiment is positive for THL’s US fleet resales and domestic rental demand for the coming summer season.

[weasel]

Tourism New Zealand infomercial for THL's campavans. 29-69 bucks a day. https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/back-your-backyard/121624932/29-a-day-crazy-campervan-deal-entices-kiwis-to-explore-their-backyard

[Benny1]

Tourism New Zealand infomercial for THL's campavans. 29-69 bucks a day. https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/back-your-backyard/121624932/29-a-day-crazy-campervan-deal-entices-kiwis-to-explore-their-backyard

Bloody good deal... No one way fees.. Only $10 p/d for nil insurance liability... Includes 2 long weekends and school holidays..
Good to see them doing something to try to stimulate the market.. May pick up a few long term customers out if it...
Even take your dog!!

[Beagle]

Bloody good deal... No one way fees.. Only $10 p/d for nil insurance liability... Includes 2 long weekends and school holidays..
Good to see them doing something to try to stimulate the market.. May pick up a few long term customers out if it...
Even take your dog!!

Finally, (albeit with a hefty $100 cleaning fee)...that particular impediment for animal lovers is removed, ironically for us, not that long after we lost our last 2 to old age issues last year. Mrs B and I have often remarked how we would love to have taken a campervan trip and brought our dogs along with us.

For me, this sort of activity is something to be enjoyed in summer or early autumn. If they do a decent special this summer for Kiwi's I'd be interested.

[Arbroath]

I can't get a 4-berth as far out as October and my December request they will get back to me on....maybe thats why the SP is going up....huge demand obviously at a lower price, as long as thats a price they can make at least some profit after costs and depreciation

[bull....]

on fire lol mentioned on the air thread air/thl on fire a week back. could be the rumour thl campvans are all going to kiwibuild lol

[bottomfeeder]

I just dont see it, prices just to partly cover overheads, and the SP nearly back to its usual, before COVID. Have they forgotton the last three months. I think that when 1st half results for periods covering the mar/Apr/May/June periods will bring a lot of investors down to earth very quickly,

[jonu]

This might be the reason the sp has shot up. Leaky boat somewhere. Hard to see why this wasn't released as price sensitive to the market.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/121719651/government-backs-waitomo-caving-with-4m-dishes-out-20m-to-regional-tourism-groups

[kiora]

At the end of the day the tourism market will decide what happens.A sugar fix?Maybe

[Southern Lad]

The AFR Street Talk column today is evidently suggesting that bankers have been promoting to buyout firms that there is a play to be had through buying out and merging THL and ATL. See post on HC under ATL for details.

While combining the two companies would provide plenty of scope for rationalisation of infrastructure and perhaps fleet sizes, I’m assuming it would be a hard sell to get past regulators given the market dominance of a merged company in both NZ and Aus.

[bull....]

The AFR Street Talk column today is evidently suggesting that bankers have been promoting to buyout firms that there is a play to be had through buying out and merging THL and ATL. See post on HC under ATL for details.

While combining the two companies would provide plenty of scope for rationalisation of infrastructure and perhaps fleet sizes, I’m assuming it would be a hard sell to get past regulators given the market dominance of a merged company in both NZ and Aus.

3 bagger on the way , atl be a cheap buy for thl now

[percy]

3 bagger on the way , atl be a cheap buy for thl now

Be very careful as they would inherit ATL's mountain [mountains] load of debt [debts].

[Scrunch]

The AFR Street Talk column today is evidently suggesting that bankers have been promoting to buyout firms that there is a play to be had through buying out and merging THL and ATL. See post on HC under ATL for details.

While combining the two companies would provide plenty of scope for rationalisation of infrastructure and perhaps fleet sizes, I’m assuming it would be a hard sell to get past regulators given the market dominance of a merged company in both NZ and Aus.

I'd put this into the pump and category and guess that someone raising the possibility already has a position that they are ready to dump. THL has been exploring potential acquistion targets in the past so its inconceivable that they haven't taken a good look at the idea of an equity raise and buying out ATL. That THL haven't indicates the synergies are probably not there, there is a big regulatory hurdle or the scale of the equity raise for acquisition and recapitalisation is too big. Whether you could keep ATL's debt levels or need to chuck in a lot of new equity to bring them down would depend on ATL's financing terms. While ATL is trading at 36c, its net debt/share was $1.92 at the end of December. The book value/share (70c) makes the share price look cheap, but not so much when you look at NTA/share which is negative $1.27.

[Mr Slothbear]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121853454/thl-executives-resign-amid-company-restructuring


hmm very interesting. Two execs gone and one having only been there 12 months.

disagreements with management? Or cost cutting?

[Beagle]

Not often you get the CFO and COO resigning at the same time, especially when one has only been there for just over a year.
My money would be on a conflict with the CFO's leadership style. Some people are no good in a crisis.

[percy]

I would think nearly every CFO,COO,CEO and directors of listed companies, would find the current crisis, and ongoing issues of right sizing their business,with the right amount of capital, would be causing them a great deal of worry and stress,particularly when they do not really know what the right size will be for their business..Putting off staff is extremely difficult.
Serious issues with most businesses are going to be ongoing, for the next two or three years.Next winter is going to be very cold and long.Just too many people currently losing their jobs.

[winner69]

Making a few million profit in second half pretty good effort by Thl

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355247

[Scrunch]

Making a few million profit in second half pretty good effort by Thl

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355247

So the half year was $13.1m and the full-year underlying estimate is $17.5m to $19m. There will be some write-off's but even so - well done.
The half year had $5.7m of cash and interest bearing borrowing of $186.7m. The net debt estimate is $140-$145m so they repaid circa $40m over the last 6 months.
These are pretty good stats given the circumstances.
And probably most important "Given these funding arrangements and the current outlook for the business, thl has determined that it does not require additional equity."

While the announcement of no final dividend could be viewed negatively, who really thought there would be a final dividend given what's happened in the last four months?

[Lease]

So the half year was $13.1m and the full-year underlying estimate is $17.5m to $19m. There will be some write-off's but even so - well done.
The half year had $5.7m of cash and interest bearing borrowing of $186.7m. The net debt estimate is $140-$145m so they repaid circa $40m over the last 6 months.
These are pretty good stats given the circumstances.
And probably most important "Given these funding arrangements and the current outlook for the business, thl has determined that it does not require additional equity."

While the announcement of no final dividend could be viewed negatively, who really thought there would be a final dividend given what's happened in the last four months?

Definitely, we should not write THL off. It's a great company!

[Sideshow Bob]

Really, I mean really selling it......

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/300056435/lets-get-new-zealand-freezing-how-a-cheap-campervan-deal-went-badly-wrong

[kiora]

Really, I mean really selling it......

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/300056435/lets-get-new-zealand-freezing-how-a-cheap-campervan-deal-went-badly-wrong

That Journalist gets the “Kenny Award”
He made a very basic mistake.Should have booked in at the golf clubs !
https://newzealandgolfdigest.co.nz/great-new-zealand-golf-trip/

[Waltzing]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300061191/is-our-famous-kiwi-hospitality-a-myth

[Sideshow Bob]

THL's plans post Covid:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/357179/327442.pdf

[winner69]

THL's plans post Covid:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/357179/327442.pdf

Looks pretty positive

[bull....]

need to reduce debt to near zero , its about survival

[iceman]

They seem to be well focused on doing all the right things but clearly need to reduce debt much further. It will be interesting to watch how they go in the next 12-18 months.

[Beagle]

thl’s current operating assumption is for vehicle sales volumes in FY21 that are at least similar to normal pre-COVID levels.

In the absence of a major deterioration in operating conditions, we expect to remain cash flow positive throughout FY21, mainly underpinned by vehicle sales


Pretty "Brave" assumption that the latter cash flow positivity is predicated upon. One wonders how deeply they have thought about the validity of this assumption ? Post Covid 19 lockdown splurge by some consumers but will it last as the economic conditions seriously wane over the year ahead ? (Note the clearly articulated caveat in the second statement). Got their excuse sorted out already ? You be the judge but I see a LOT of risk.

[iceman]

Pretty "Brave" assumption that the latter cash flow positivity is predicated upon. One wonders how deeply they have thought about the validity of this assumption ? Post Covid 19 lockdown splurge by some consumers but will it last as the economic conditions seriously wane over the year ahead ? (Note the clearly articulated caveat in the second statement). Got their excuse sorted out already ? You be the judge but I see a LOT of risk.

Clearly some heroic assumptions there Beagle but good to see them tackling the situation fairly decisively. Totally agree and there is far too much risk and uncertainty to do anything other than watch this one from well back on the sidelines for a long time yet.

[flyinglizard]

Great company, the 2020 annual result really surprised me.

Full Year Underlying Profit $18.25m (average of $17.5m-$19m from their announcement) + Government $5.1m Tourism subsidy (maybe not in 2020) + Landlord Relief (unknown amount) + Exit from Togo Group ($9m NZD @0.67) + $0.6m dividend (maybe start from 2021 financial year) - $3.1m Tourism.

I guess that the EPS is around 0.18-0.20 per share, if I do not miss something.

The company publishes market update monthly, avoid to surprise shareholders. They clearly know what they should do and correct strategy has been determined ( sale of non-commercial vehicles to reduce inventory and improve its cash flow). To contain its debt level, build up commercial relationship with government agency, and reserving new capital raising right for future expansion.

[Mr Slothbear]

New CFO appointment Nick Judd looks like a very good one. 17 years at Air NZ will translate very well to THL I would think

[Getty]

Hello Hello Hello,
Whats going on here then?
SP up 6.8% to $2.04, on $953K
No Ann.

Shall we take it in for questioning?

DR JPG.

Dont steal.
The government hates competition.

[iceman]

The Market Update said the run up today was due to higher optimism on vaccine. I wonder often how they come up with this stuff !

[nztx]

New CFO appointment Nick Judd looks like a very good one. 17 years at Air NZ will translate very well to THL I would think

Any sign of Wings on Campers for when AIR run out of capacity ? ;)

or have pained wings just been added on the SP ..

[winner69]

At least Thl hasn’t reported a loss greater than its market cap

Well done Apollo

https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/articles/covid-19-wipes--66m-from-apollo-results.html?utm_medium=email&utm_source=www.thewebconsole.com&utm_campaign=BNA+News+-+Aug+31&utm_content=35968726&c=31122783&_c=00a1dc8a37f4b05a1bebd3bf4ce1f3a6

I note Apollo still have $300m of debt

[flyinglizard]

Sold aba with 3.68 today, beautiful 40% profit less than one month. Bought some thl. It seems that 2.05 has been broken through.

[winner69]

Sold aba with 3.68 today, beautiful 40% profit less than one month. Bought some thl. It seems that 2.05 has been broken through.

You on a roll eh...hope it continues with thl

[flyinglizard]

You on a roll eh...hope it continues with thl


thl is one of my favorite companies, great management team. Not like aba management team sold the company at undervalued price ( remember they rejected offers at extreme high price in many years), but eventually landed at between 3.70 and 4.45. Not even try to run well.

[Blue Skies]

Auckland rental car fleet up in flames, what a year for THL !

[sb9]

Auckland rental car fleet up in flames, what a year for THL !

Yes, just watched the piece on AM show, all brands belong to THL unfortunately.