THL - Tourism Holdings

[winner69]

Merger seems to be totally based on 'synergies' .... the presentation mentions it 38 times

When I was involved in M&A work I made myself and others read The Synergy Trap by Mark Sirower on a regular basis. Essentially retired from such things now but might pull my copy of the shelf and have another read.

Mergers based on synergies often don't add much value (or not to the extent originally estimated). Invariably synergies are over valued.

There's a saying often heard in the Board room ... 'Where did all the synergies go'

Be interesting how this pans out for thl

Posted this Dec 2021

Seems to have been the case.

WHERE DID ALL THE SYNERGIES GO?

[blackcap]

Posted this Dec 2021

Seems to have been the case.

WHERE DID ALL THE SYNERGIES GO?

Good post Winner. We had a uni professor on sabbatical from the USA come teach us our 3rd year finance paper in the winter/spring of 1997 and he was a merger and acquisition specialist. I remember the term synergy being used a lot. All about Beta's and how merging 2 companies might affect that etc. Synergy seemed to be a good thing though.

I will see if I can read that book you recommend. Sounds very informative. I wonder if there is a psychological reason for synergies being over valued?

[bull....]

I remember selling out at $6.45 in 2018…was a good sell back then

Bought a few for the bottom draw today at 1.86… Quite a different beast today….should go ok when it key revenue markets pick up again…who know where it goes in short term…could be more pain to come

the big question indeed. when will revenue pick up again ? cost of living crisis not ending soon , rv sales are like jet ski sales and look at the massive debt levels on falling revenue :scared: no wonder going to the bank. have to agree with others downgrade possible again later this yr

[Rawz]

During COVID the tourism industry rental fleets were sold down. Additionally, during covid many rental companies went into liquidation (or some merged) so the number of operators shrunk. Coming out of COVID there was a mad rush from tourists to jump in a campervan/motor home and have a post covid holiday. This meant there was a mad rush by the rental fleet owners to gear back up. The preferred cab chassis manufacturers like Mercedes couldnt keep up with demand so the likes of THL had to take some units from Iveco which are not as reliable as the Merc's or preferred by the rental customer.

THL issues today are only ex fleet sales not the rental side. How long will it take for the sales to recover? Will the rental side come in for some demand decline? I am not sure but that FY26 $100m npat has to be seriously questioned..

[winner69]

Getting a few in opening rush not good idea after all

Will need to average down and hope like hell it’ll come right

[Rawz]

Getting a few in opening rush not good idea after all

Will need to average down and hope like hell it’ll come right

Will come out all good. No need to hope. Even if they do $80m in FY26 thats eps of $0.36. multiply that by a below avg P/E of 12 = SP of $4.40. Basically free money buying right now aye

[winner69]

Updated that chart I posted earlier to reflect todays action

[Toddy]

Will come out all good. No need to hope. Even if they do $80m in FY26 thats eps of $0.36. multiply that by a below avg P/E of 12 = SP of $4.40. Basically free money buying right now aye
Yeah, sure. Didn't they have a big reveal in late February. It's only early May and all of a sudden tens of millions are gone.

So what happened in the 10 week period.

[winner69]

Yeah, sure. Didn't they have a big reveal in late February. It's only early May and all of a sudden tens of millions are gone.

So what happened in the 10 week period.

Seems they not on top of internal reporting / controls …..putting it kindly they don’t have fingers on the pulse or whatever the saying is.

Coincidence that CFO left a while ago and a guy came back from parental leave to look after things until new CFO starts in July?

Something wrong somewhere.

[winner69]

Yeah, sure. Didn't they have a big reveal in late February. It's only early May and all of a sudden tens of millions are gone.

So what happened in the 10 week period.

Maybe itsvtime for Grant Webster to pack his bags after 15 years as CEO and get somebody fresh

Maybe winning Deloittes CEO of the Year a few months ago has gone his head .

Mind you he took a hair cut today on his $8m of shares

[winner69]

Trouchet sold a couple of million shares not that long

Maybe just as well heaps still in escrow (I think)

[Toddy]

Maybe itsvtime for Grant Webster to pack his bags after 15 years as CEO and get somebody fresh

Maybe winning Deloittes CEO of the Year a few months ago has gone his head .

Mind you he took a hair cut today on his $8m of shares

Maybe start afresh and change their name to something like 'The Helicopter Line'.

[Toddy]

They always had the best excuses for profit downgrades.

[X-men]

Gosh... lucky sold out Breakeven couple months ago .. otherwise will be another dog sheet

[nztx]

Good grief - down just over 36% today !

that's brutal

[silverblizzard888]

Guidance down by a third and share price down by a third, now isn't that just good market efficiency. With interest rates staying quite elevated for the time being, I'd say people don't have the spare money for RV purchases or extra travel. Good stock to buy when interest rates start coming down, but for now the risk of another downgrade is quite possible since the real economic decline is really just seeping in now.

[Entrep]

Updated that chart I posted earlier to reflect todays action

as beagle said in the other channel with no growth in sp does it really deserve a pe of 16?

[Daytr]

Posted this Dec 2021

Seems to have been the case.

WHERE DID ALL THE SYNERGIES GO?

Another word for synergy could be concentration. I.e rather than diversifying revenue or risk you are doubling down.
Synergy can make sense but those synergy 'savings' need to be real.

Without knowing the full detail it appears to be more cyclical economic impact a bit like OCA.
At least there might be some cheap campers come up for sale.

[Sideshow Bob]

ACC sold down just over 1.5%.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/430707/418061.pdf

Edit - got that wrong they increased their holding......:sleep:

[percy]

ACC sold down just over 1.5%.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/430707/418061.pdf

For this disclosure,—
(a) Total number held in class: 19,442,407
(b) Total in class: 218,224,409
(c) Total percentage held in class: 8.909%
For last disclosure,—
(a) Total number held in class: 16,017,538
(b) Total in class: 217,231,623
(c) Total percentage held in class: 7.373%

[Rawz]

ACC sold down just over 1.5%.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/430707/418061.pdf

if im reading that right they bought 3.4m shares for consideration of $8.19m. i.e. avg price of $2.40. wow absolute rookies. lol jks they way smarter than me

[winner69]

if im reading that right they bought 3.4m shares for consideration of $8.19m. i.e. avg price of $2.40. wow absolute rookies. lol jks they way smarter than me

Must have been bought quite a few yesterday to get average down to $2.40