THL - Tourism Holdings [Archive] - Page 2

macduffy

30-05-2011, 05:59 PM

I tend to think that the on-going benefit from the RWC, for THL and NZ tourism generally, is a bit overblown.

Good for the current year and great for a few weeks but I doubt that the world at large will be greatly influenced to visit NZ as a result. Keen rugby types are already aware of what the country has to offer, in general terms. Those who make the trip will include a large proportion of "once in a life-time to the Southern Hemisphere" types who are unlikely to make repeat visits. To that extent it might be merely bringing forward a trip they would otherwise make at a later date. For the vast majority, the non-rugby world, the event will largely pass unnoticed, much like the Stanley Cup or the Aussie Rules grand final.

I don't hold THL - too capital-intensive for my liking - but I'd hope that they don't gear-up too much for this one-off event.

macduffy

30-05-2011, 08:18 PM

winner69

30-05-2011, 08:59 PM

That's pretty much my point, belg.

Like it or not, rugby is very much a minority sport, even in many of the countries who will be appearing at the RWC, with the notable exceptions of NZ, SA and Wales. I'm not disputing that it will have a big effect, for a brief time, but IMO it's largely a case of preaching to the converted rather than bringing NZ to the world.

.... but I keep hearing that the RWC is the biggest (sporting) event that NZ has ever held .... if Snedden, Key et al say that it must be true ....a nd just like when the Lions toured here a few years ago thl (mustn't put that in capitals anymore) will cream it

winner69

30-05-2011, 09:14 PM

The last big rugby event was the Lions tour in 2005. The head honcho said this at the AGM late 2005

The September quarter low season in New Zealand has been below our budget expectations with negative visitor growth from key Japanese and Asian markets, however Rentals New Zealand and Johnston's Coachlines did enjoy good support in the last three weeks of the Lions Rugby Tour in July.

A few months later they announced reduced half year profits (and that Pickup was leaving) .... not one mention of the good support of the Lions supporters .... only lamenting the high NZ dollar, high fuel costs, downturn in the numebr of Japanese tourists and all the other excuses that thl are famous for.

Just sounds like the environment today .... surely not a rerun of another disppointing performance from thl

J R Ewing

31-05-2011, 03:17 PM

The EBIT multiples in the Simmonds valuation are way too high for this years projection (56 to 60.6) and for next year projection they are still very high at 12.3 to 14.1. I think those sort of multiples would normally be associated with a company with massive growth prospects. Also, next years figures are inflated by RWC revenues. A prudent purchaser would not be paying a big multiple for RWC revenues, they are a one off and should be normalised out going forward.

J R Ewing

15-06-2011, 01:02 PM

Gerard Ryan doesn't seem to have declared his hand yet. There was some speculation earlier that he might want to make a competing offer, perhpas closing CI Munro and manufacturing in Australia instead. As things stand it looks like the current takeover is going to fail, hard to see them getting enough shares for a majority and equally hard to see them raising the offer to within the valuation range.

J R Ewing

24-08-2011, 05:06 PM

Yes, now that the Ballylinch offer is dead Gerard Ryan might be about to show his hand. Is he prepared to pay significantly more than Ballylinch? If not, surely he will come up against the same obstacle - that thl is "worth" much more that the market says it is.

Master98

25-08-2011, 09:55 AM

Not sure the market is going to be thrilled. A big negitive hit early in early trading with stabilisation around 11:00? If it falls far enough I'm in but the time to buy will be when the uptrend is established.

lol, uptrend maybe start now;)

J R Ewing

25-08-2011, 01:57 PM

Outlook: There is no change to the forecasts contained for FY2012 of EBIT and NPAT of $17.2m and $5.9m respectively. These forecasts assume there will be no significant world events beyond those experienced in the last twelve months.

5.9 NPAT / 98.2m shares @ PE10 ~= 60c per share. (But the caveat above is the kicker! THL always get hit by global events of one form or another!)

That seems a reasonable valuation. We are in unstable times and there are a number of global factrors working against tourism, so you might expect things to get better in future. On the other hand this 5.9m includes the one off RWC business, which I would think is significant for thl.

But then why did the Ballylinch offer fail? Why does the Simmons valuation come in at $100m? The sharehoders and the board must be figuring thl will double this NPAT within a couple of years.

winner69

22-01-2012, 08:19 PM

hope this not one of their campervans

Letters: Unhappy campers

January 21, 2012 Read later
.

My partner and I mapped out a travel plan of New Zealand's South Island from Christchurch and selected a campervan. The staff at the Christchurch van hire company were friendly, helpful and took us through the van's workings. On day two the van suffered the first of its mechanical issues when it went into "limp mode" while we were coming up a pass near Queenstown. The problem was glowplug-related, based on the dashboard warning light. We made it to the west coast town of Haast. Sadly, the next day, 10 kilometres from Fox Glacier, both glowplug and engine management lights went on, again placing the van into limp mode. I applied all my knowledge of diesel vehicles but the van stayed in limp mode. We continued on to Fox Glacier rather than leave the van by the side of the road and hitch a ride.

We got to a petrol station where the staff were great but confirmed our fears: the van was going nowhere. We called the van company. Initially staff were helpful but once it was determined we would need a replacement van, it all became a bit too hard. The company did say we could stay in it at that location (very scenic and romantic next to the diesel pump and air hoses) but were not prepared to give an indemnity for me to continue to drive the van to the nearest camping ground.

Van staff then said they only had to supply a replacement van "subject to availability" and as there wasn't one available, that was their part of the deal satisfied. Did the company offer to help with accommodation, car hire, ongoing transport? No.

Advertisement: Story continues below

They did finally refund some money but it was not enough to cover the cost of our subsequent accommodation, car hire and bus fares or to compensate us for the food wastage. Our advice: ask detailed questions about recovery costs, replacement vehicles (and vehicle delivery times) before you hire. We do, however, recommend Fox Glacier township. Great people, great accommodation - and the bus trip to Hokitika, well, that's a life memory!

- Gary Kai

http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-news/letters-unhappy-campers-20120119-1q7wn.html

janner

22-01-2012, 09:48 PM

Hey Winner..

If this was true would you not name the company ??

You would have no reason not to..

I would.. With out fear of being sued..

winner69

18-06-2012, 05:43 PM

Obviously Tower Asset Mgt thinks there's value here as they've upd their hold by 1% ... Thank you Kiwisavers?

Tough work when you have to spread your money around without getting too much out sync with al the others

TAM make out they are active investors but essentially 90% of their NZ portfolio is passive

Coalman

22-06-2012, 05:57 PM

THL is a dog. Motor homes are a dime a dozen. The NZ portfollio is like PRC and the city of Christchurch. It will take a long time to come right. Toooooooo long for me to wait.

POSSUM THE CAT

22-06-2012, 07:00 PM

Coalman you forgot NZO

winner69

27-08-2012, 01:10 PM

HIGHLIGHTS

o NPAT of $4.3m up 116% on prior year
o Group operating EBIT for continuing businesses increased by 173% to $16.3m
o USA motorhome business Road Bear contributes EBIT of $5.7m in its first full-year within thl
o Rugby World Cup contribution of approximately $4.5m EBIT for New Zealand rentals
o Net debt reduced $3m to $96m
o Creation of a manufacturing joint venture with KEA Manufacturing
o Acquisition of the KEA Australia licence and brand
o Dividend declared at 2 cents per share fully imputed
http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3149983

I'm soooo excited ... NPAT up 116% ... So whats the return on assets employed?

Stop being sarcastic belg

You know they have about $300m in assets and that shareholders funds are about $150m and that such a pathetic return and that is why thl is trading at such a deep discount to NTA or book value

But why you are sooooooo excited is that a profit is a profit and that markets are forward looking at this is recovery stock if there ever was one .... shareprice .... up up and away methinks ..... even more potential form this point than FPA

I was disappointed that the report was a bit boring this year ..... none of this laying out all the disasters that have happened over the world that has affected their business .... maybe another year

winner69

27-08-2012, 01:14 PM

HIGHLIGHTS

o NPAT of $4.3m up 116% on prior year
............
o Rugby World Cup contribution of approximately $4.5m EBIT for New Zealand rentals

These 2 bits from highlights belg .... does it say that without the World Cup it would not have been a very good year

h2so4

27-08-2012, 09:18 PM

In my view THL is still loosing money. Cash Flow is $3m negative that is if you leave out the $43m:scared: they claimed for depreciation.

winner69

28-08-2012, 07:08 AM

Acid man ....... Trading cash flow was about 20m positive but they spent most of that on buying new stuff (capital)

Wouldn't call thl a cash cow

h2so4

28-08-2012, 12:51 PM

2011 they claimed $44m dep 2012 it's $43m. Capital spend 2011 $4.7m and 2012 $10.3m. How long can they keep doing this?

The conclusion I make is THL is deferring maintenance on it's PPE.:eek2:

winner69

26-09-2012, 04:16 PM

The merger is also highly value accretive for thl shareholders. In the year
to 30 June 2013 following the merger, thl forecasts its operating profit
(earnings before interest and tax) to rise to $19.3m from $16.3m in FY2012.
This includes acquisition and implementation costs of $1.7m. After-tax
earnings per share rise to 6.1 cents from 4.6 cents for continuing
businesses.

In the year to 30 June 2014, the first full year following the merger,
operating earnings are forecast to rise to $28.8m, while after-tax earnings
per share are forecast to rise to 13.3 cents per share, more than twice the
level of FY2013
http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3157255

So by 2014 THL will be worth circa 1.30 per share if we assume a PE of 10? ... Double its current price? ... A ~50% tax free each year while still getting a divie to go with it?

But the sp hasn't moved since the rush immediately after the annoucement? Does nobody believe it? Why on earth not?

If somebody offered 130 for them today Sam the Man would say it was a steal eh

But then I don't think Sam was in charge at Tower when they turned down 270 a few yaers ago and the deal didn't go ahead

Did I say THL was once 270 ... surely not ..... where's the 2 gone

Looks like only you interested belg .... go for it

troyvdh

26-09-2012, 08:08 PM

Winner....I would have to check but me thinks I sold some in the high $5's.....The Helicopter Line went all the way from 40 cents ??? that was when Sir T Wallis used to own about 12 %.....ah they were the days...cheers

winner69

26-09-2012, 08:24 PM

You have a good memory troy .... and then our mate Pickup got involved and the crooks from OZ were quite keen and drove the price up again in the mid 00's. One would have to say a bit of a dog eh .... long term investing (holding that is) is a bit of folly .... following fairly simple trends even THL has been profitable eh, one or major trends there ..... don't need to trade every week or month .... just follow the major trend

Maybe today is one of those times?

Anyway just for you troy

winner69

12-12-2012, 12:03 PM

Anyone seen The Hobbit in HFR (High Frame Rate)?

Will it get foreigners flocking to NZ to take in the sites first hand?

Of course it will belg .... but perversely THL profits do not seem to have a positive correlation to tourist numbers

winner69

13-12-2012, 07:55 AM

THL profits do have a positive correlation to tourist who hire campervans ... its all about getting the right sort of tourists!

Sorry how remiss of me belg .... yesI agree if more tourists hire campervans THL should make more money.

Even though a few on this thread have pointed out in the past the more the campervans are used the more costly it is for thl and profits don't necessary increase

way beyond me all this .... bet some hoping that silliy aussies (who turned out to be a bit sort of dodgy plasying with other peoples money) offer 280 like they did a few years ago

Balance

13-12-2012, 08:50 AM

While true to an extent - that was then, this is now - competitive landscape has changed somewhat and THL should find it easier to protect margins. Thus - more rented - bigger profits.

Still a dog IMNSHO but with a little upside (could be quite a bit actually :))

Lousy business model - THL. Its business is highly seasonal, capital intensive and heavily dependent on a range of factors beyond its control and influence.

The company has tried every trick in the book to try and obtain sustainable non-capital intensive earnings but 20 plus years from listing, still struggles.

Think of THL as akin to the airline business and invest accordingly. It's a cyclical play - not a long term investment.

golden city

25-12-2012, 03:26 PM

it seems no one has pick thl as a winner 2013,it seems good value for me.., any futher comment on THL

J R Ewing

26-12-2012, 08:18 AM

it seems no one has pick thl as a winner 2013,it seems good value for me.., any futher comment on THL

THL is still in difficult times due to the depressed state of the key European and North American visitor numbers into both NZ and Australia. Their Road Bear acquisition in North America might go well, but until those key markets come back profits are going to be thin in Australasia.

golden city

27-12-2012, 12:08 PM

yes i agreed too, it is a very difficult market to operate at the moment.., but the merger should help.., if it is on forecast, it will be strong divideds comming forward..,not sure i am right..any further comments.., because i am still learning my investing

golden city

29-12-2012, 09:04 AM

following the trend.., THL.seems bottom out.at around 50 cents, it is matter of time.., before it crack the dollar mark

scamper

31-12-2012, 09:33 PM

Careful, goldie
5 years ago thl dropped from 240 to about 60 cents, and for the last four years its wobbled around 70 cps.
Not much of a cyclical play really, and definitely a poor buy and hold...
Happy New Year to all, Scamper.

janner

31-12-2012, 10:37 PM

it seems no one has pick thl as a winner 2013,it seems good value for me.., any futher comment on THL

Belgarion agrees that it is a " cyclical play ".. and very profitable too..

Tell me... Why is this the beginning of a new upward cycle ??

Hobbits ??.. Becoming " Old Hat " IMO..

More money to spare from EURO.. America ?..

China with their own Airline.. Own Charter Buses.. Selected points of stop.. Sleeping arrangements.. and Own Staff..

Australia.. ??.. Holidaying KIWI's.. Living with the Cussie Bros. Of all of our Nationalities..

Not much use there for a camper van..

Give me a good reason why Camper vans will be back in vogue Goldie.. :-)

golden city

01-01-2013, 10:25 AM

Hobbit ramps up interest in travel to NZ

ELLE HUNT

Last updated 05:00 01/01/2013

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Industries
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Travel websites have reported significant growth in searches and bookings for New Zealand this month, after the worldwide release of The Hobbit.

The flight search website Sky scanner.com recorded a 102 per cent increase in worldwide searches for flights to New Zealand this month compared with December 2011, including a 117 per cent spike in searches for flights to Wellington.

The foreign currency exchange group Travelex has reported a 26 per cent increase in pre-orders for New Zealand dollars compared with December 2011.

Air New Zealand bookings from the United States were reported to have nearly doubled on the day before the November 28 world premiere in Wellington, and increased by a third in Japan after a Hobbit promotion there.

The worldwide tour operator Trailfinders, which has introduced a Hobbiton Express Day Tour from Auckland for 2013, has reported almost a 10 per cent increase in forward bookings to New Zealand for the new year.

Positively Wellington Tourism chief executive David Perks said he had noted a growth in interest in New Zealand as a travel destination in Britain, "and a much more positive vibe about bookings" since September.

He said the international media coverage of Wellington as a result of its hosting the premiere had increased the city's global profile, and this was expected to lead to a surge in bookings.

"We were really pleased how much coverage we achieved.

"We knew from when Wellington hosted the last Lord of the Rings premiere [The Return of the King in 2003] that coverage meant a significant surge in bookings, but we weren't sure how different global financial conditions would affect that.

"The indicators have been good since the noise around The Hobbit started to grow in September."

Tourism New Zealand spokeswoman Deborah Gray said there had been a surge in Hobbit-related searches on its newzealand.com website. Searches for "hobbit", "Hobbiton", "Lord of the Rings" and "Middle-earth" were up 265 per cent for November compared with the previous three-month average.

golden city

01-01-2013, 10:29 AM

the main reason for me to buy THL is behind the merger.., that creates value for long term dividends.., it is not a growth story...but if they sucessfully integrated ., it provided a good income for dividend

golden city

01-01-2013, 10:30 AM

but there is always a (but).., in experience.., not many company exercute well for merger.., such as....PVO CTL.disaster..., let's hope

golden city

01-01-2013, 10:36 AM

another reason is the net tangible assets.., which if they can sucessful reduce the assets., it provide good cash to reduce debts or a greater dividends.....

J R Ewing

01-01-2013, 10:58 AM

another reason is the net tangible assets.., which if they can sucessful reduce the assets., it provide good cash to reduce debts or a greater dividends.....

An orderly reduction in fleet across the combined brands was one of the key drivers in the merger. I would assume any proceeds would go to reduce debt. I think share price and dividends will depend on earnings and my pick is that this year will not be a great result due to the decline in key market segments.

LOTR was a fantastic boost for visitation from those key markets and The Hobbit couldn't come at a better time from that point of view - maybe the next 2-3 years will show a recovery.

golden city

02-01-2013, 08:17 AM

i am guessing share prices will start picking up after this full year results.., around august..

golden city

03-01-2013, 10:52 AM

any idea of why thl big drop today

winner69

03-01-2013, 11:32 AM

any idea of why thl big drop today

Nothing unusual goldie

Just that thl usually does the opposite to the market

golden city

03-01-2013, 11:58 AM

i think it is a good time to pick up some shares at 66 cents range..

J R Ewing

03-01-2013, 12:34 PM

The NTA is quite reasonable based on a willing buyer/willing seller rather than a firesale value. Of course you can't realise that value quickly or easily, else THL would have been broken up some time ago. If/when high value visitors come back in strong numbers, they might make an economic return on those assets - if they are still in good enough condition to rent at premium prices - or if the demand is so strong that there is no choice. But in the meantime, the value of the business as a going concern is far less than NTA.

golden city

03-01-2013, 12:47 PM

forecast earning eps is about 6c..so PE is at 11 at the moment..but 2014 is forecasting 13.3c..which is pe at 5 for next year., if they can acheived it.., dividends might be at 10c next year..,

Master98

03-01-2013, 01:52 PM

thl forecast net loss between 0.5m and 1m 6 month to Dec 2012.

golden city

03-01-2013, 01:57 PM

that is half year ,share prices always priced in future pe isn't it?

J R Ewing

03-01-2013, 02:00 PM

It is half year, and the poor half at that, most of the earnings come December through March.

golden city

03-01-2013, 02:06 PM

the main thing i am worry is not about the half year loss,because it is forecast already.., it is the foreward statement after the release of the half year report..,.that is the one i have to watch for..

macduffy

03-01-2013, 03:11 PM

Good luck with this one, gc, but I still reckon the business model is flawed. A capital intensive business with too much money tied up in campervans which only earn good money for a portion of the year but depreciate all year round! We know how quickly that happens with new cars and I don't see vans as very much different.
The cut-price outfits such as Juicy have a better model with second-hand, heavily depreciated vehicles and light overheads. Just IMO but I'd treat THL the same way as an airline. Not an investment, but possibly a short term trade at the right time.

golden city

03-01-2013, 04:40 PM

thanks..i am not a long term investor anyway., i am more a short of medium term., just flip it off when time comes

golden city

03-01-2013, 04:43 PM

i remember a few years back..when i pick RBD.when it was around 50cents., i came out alright.., i just felt THL..is a bit similar., high dividend with low points., it is on the brink of turning around.., even in a no growth enviroment.., it is more than a cutting cost., improve profitability story..

golden city

03-01-2013, 04:45 PM

i might not get it right all the time or try to convince everyone.., that is why i like open discussion.., try to get more ideas to improve my self

golden city

03-01-2013, 05:13 PM

anyone knows who are the top 10 shareholder in THL

03-01-2013, 06:28 PM

anyone knows who are the top 10 shareholder in THLannual report shows top 20 - available from their website.

Suggest you have a read before investing.

troyvdh

03-01-2013, 11:50 PM

...gc...I love your optimism...take heed what CJ posted...in fact take heed of all posts...(ignore mine)....as i have stated before I 1st bought into "the helicopter line' a few years back ..at 40 cents...sold a few around $5 me thinks....I bought today 874 at 65 cents...why ?....just a hunch/gut feeling more likley ....just remember the SM aint black and white ...if it was ..every man and his dog would be in there...cheers.

golden city

04-01-2013, 07:56 AM

yes i do looked the annual report.., can't find it.., or maybe i missed it..

macduffy

04-01-2013, 08:36 AM

yes i do looked the annual report.., can't find it.., or maybe i missed it..

See p36 of the 2012 AR.

At that date, substantial security holders, ie those with 5% or more, were:

Sterling Grace Capital Mgt 19.1%
Utilico Investments 8.9%
ACC 7.8%
Tower Asset Mgt 7.4%

Note that the top 20 shareholders are registered holders, not necessarily beneficial holders.

Cheers

golden city

04-01-2013, 10:08 AM

thanks macduffy

golden city

04-01-2013, 03:51 PM

oh share price shot up by no reason..what a volatile stock

biker

04-01-2013, 04:42 PM

binary

05-01-2013, 01:16 PM

oh share price shot up by no reason..what a volatile stock

Stock of 2013. Go for it.

golden city

05-01-2013, 05:48 PM

i already accumulating more than two hundread thousands of it's shares.., start accumulating from 53cents.., hope it will come up like a rbd story,know it is volatile.., but stick my guts with it

troyvdh

05-01-2013, 06:31 PM

...Im impressed...youve obviously got balls....hope you have the same journey I did....go well...troy

golden city

08-01-2013, 09:27 AM

nothing exciting for the market at the moment....a bit boring..

golden city

08-01-2013, 09:56 AM

oh..lots of buying order comming in.., a bit unusual volumes

golden city

11-01-2013, 02:58 PM

NZX is very quiet at the moment..

golden city

11-01-2013, 03:26 PM

someone is accumulating THL..trade volume is up

macduffy

11-01-2013, 03:42 PM

I wouldn't read too much into early January trading. Activity is always low with a lot of brokers and fund managers away in Hawaii - or wherever it is they go for summer holidays. Equally though, it can be a time to buy in modest volumes when attention is diverted from the market and stale sell orders sit on brokers' books.
As for THL, I wouldn't know.

golden city

11-01-2013, 04:10 PM

yes..it is very pathy trading.., but if you watch carefully.might have some lucks too., when THL last week at 66c.., will be nice to pick up some..over all not much volumes.

J R Ewing

11-01-2013, 04:48 PM

yes..it is very pathy trading.., but if you watch carefully.might have some lucks too., when THL last week at 66c.., will be nice to pick up some..over all not much volumes.

I doubt that it will be the last chance to buy at 66, it is thinly traded and anyone selling a decent parcel could push it back there again.

golden city

16-01-2013, 09:25 AM

is getting a bit more trades recently

winner69

19-02-2013, 01:37 PM

perversely yes belg

maybe the 'reduced' spend is no longer staying at the Langham but getting a bit rough and travelling in campervans and going to Waitomo and all those exciting places

you never know ... wait for the result ..... just that there does to be a -ver correlation between visitor numbers and THL profits but never been interested enough to find out

bring back pickup i say ... dennis wasn't that bad afterall

J R Ewing

19-02-2013, 01:43 PM

LOL ... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10866358 ... W69, by your reckoning, THL should be in for a bumper year ;)

Yes, THL is already up 1c today on this news!

golden city

19-02-2013, 07:37 PM

fingers cross hope thl goes well..after the merger.

winner69

28-02-2013, 11:25 AM

LOL ... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10866358 ... W69, by your reckoning, THL should be in for a bumper year ;)

by my reckoning thl make a penny or two from every tourist to nz ..... not enough pennies to cover the kea integration costs i gather ,,,,,,,, so losses are incurred in nz

just as well they made a few million in the usa ........ otherwise this announceent would have another typical thl announcement .... full of bad news and all the excuses from across the world

golden city

28-02-2013, 11:37 AM

not feeling good.,only good thing is still paying a dividend

golden city

28-02-2013, 11:37 AM

which should hold up share prices

J R Ewing

01-03-2013, 10:36 AM

I doubt that it will be the last chance to buy at 66, it is thinly traded and anyone selling a decent parcel could push it back there again.

As predicted Golden City, another chance to buy @ 66c unfortunately.

golden city

01-03-2013, 05:34 PM

i was suprise,that it did not go down to 60c.., it hold up tall at 66

golden city

06-03-2013, 10:00 PM

any further comment on the half year result?

golden city

20-03-2013, 07:20 PM

still going down..,what is the stop point.?

winner69

20-03-2013, 07:23 PM

You got your lifestyle block yet golden

golden city

22-03-2013, 01:13 PM

not yet..you got any good ones

troyvdh

22-03-2013, 05:58 PM

Lifestyle block...mmmmm.....is the average stay/suffering period still about 2 years......just thinking....

Poet

22-03-2013, 06:57 PM

I think that the pain-point for a lifestyle block is around two years, but that's for the general population. Any investor in THL is demonstrably made of sterner stuff than that!

benjitara

21-05-2013, 02:47 PM

I'm involved with this business. On 2012 figures I rate a share price of 40-45 cents a reasonable valuation on fundamentals. High debt, Price to book is showing a discount but share price is still overvalued by up to 30%. To me acquisitions have still not added to their margins or added value to the business. They've had a long hot summer and have been busy on the ground so I wouldn't be surprised if the annual paints a better picture. They have a small chance of making some gains when they sell out of their current chch premises. they should use that opportunity to downsize their fleet and numbers of personnel.
A very hard sell with their backs to the wall.
Just an opinion but slightly more educated than my other posts.

golden city

24-05-2013, 05:57 PM

what is going on..., unusual trading volume happening on THL..

janner

24-05-2013, 06:30 PM

what is going on..., unusual trading volume happening on THL..

Who knows ??.

Possibly benjitara's post drawing attention to a share price that is well below NTA.. With a 9% dividend.. ???

benjitara

25-05-2013, 12:06 PM

Who knows ??.

Possibly benjitara's post drawing attention to a share price that is well below NTA.. With a 9% dividend.. ???

I certainly hope that isn't the case!
This would be one of the few shares trading at a discount to book that I've found but the main problem with this is in my view is book=assets where in this case the assets ARE the main cause of such low profit margins. Its hard to sell off campervans and its a competitive market (hence the merger in the first place) The sharemarket is a funny animal and there's a lot of people out there that will be willing to pick this stock up at its current price. Just my opinion but on current fundamentals i'd be waiting another report of two.

bull....

25-05-2013, 02:18 PM

as said wayyyyee back on this thread they shouldnt have changed strategy to campers only , chinese dont drive campers they liked to be drived on tours , bus tours to attractions etc poor old thl stuffed up they had it right and blew it.
But guess in face off gfc only the bravest had the balls to stand tall

golden city

25-05-2013, 05:37 PM

i smell some takeover taste on THL in my nose at present..

golden city

25-05-2013, 05:54 PM

asset rich.could bring another bids ..can't find anything cheaper at present for big guys

macduffy

25-05-2013, 09:14 PM

Asset rich?

Do you mean all those rapidly depreciating vehicles which produced a Net Loss after tax of $0.5m in the last half year? I reckon the market is more interested in the company's profit prospects than its NTA!

Mista_Trix

24-06-2013, 09:28 AM

I need some encouragement to stay in at this point... lets hear ...

What are your thoughts on;
Weakening NZ dollar (good for tourism numbers)
Baby boomer retirees (wanting to 'rough it', but not too rough - ie. camper-van not tent)
The increasing Asian tourist dollar (and the way they travel not being at all aligned to what THL provide)

So what are peoples thoughts on any of this?

J R Ewing

24-06-2013, 12:58 PM

The lower NZD is good, and the even lower AUD even better, but I'm not sure whether or not that will translate into improved visitor numbers from the key European markets. One thing that is sure to help over the next couple of years is the Hobbit trilogy. I think these films do more to promote tourism to NZ than any number of marketing campaigns can.

A proper campervan holiday (self-contained, not just an old van with a mattress in the back) is not a cheap option for a driving holiday. It usually costs more than the rental car and motel/B&B alternative. I would question whether the campervan holiday is going to suit baby boomer retirees over the next few years, especially as it will be quite a task to keep all the components of an aging fleet up to scratch.

I agree that THL won't see much business from the increasing emerging markets sector (especially China). A recovery in European numbers is required, alternatively a bit more from trans-tasman and North America.

J R Ewing

17-07-2013, 09:30 AM

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/business/8927201/Pacific-Horizon-in-receivership

One less competitor - but clearly times are tough in the industry!

golden city

18-07-2013, 01:55 PM

profit aouncement next month.., if it is so bad., should be a downgraded annoucement came already

troyvdh

21-07-2013, 11:05 PM

I hate to say this but recent events aint good for companies like THL....I recall here in CHCH one damn bloody M Pajero stuck in a road hole collapse in ferrymead made world wide headlines.....but in reality it was more than likely it was the only bloody one vehicle that did so... in town..........cheers...I hate this

I hasten to add that had it not been for earthquakes....NZ....would not be here....

golden city

02-08-2013, 08:38 AM

looks like the share price start to picking up

J R Ewing

02-08-2013, 10:57 AM

looks like the share price start to picking up

Not significant IMO - no volume.

minimoke

02-08-2013, 01:17 PM

..I recall here in CHCH one damn bloody M Pajero stuck in a road hole collapse in ferrymead made world wide headlines.....but in reality it was more than likely it was the only bloody one vehicle that did so... in town..........cheers...I hate this
You are joking! As I drove across town on the Tuesday night I came across at least 20 vehicles abandoned in sink holes. I nearly dropped my own car in one of the damn things.

golden city

29-08-2013, 08:33 PM

THL share prices starting to bounds back .., will be keep going up ..

golden city

30-08-2013, 05:13 PM

here she goes..up up up

benjitara

31-08-2013, 01:31 PM

Agreed Belgarion. Nothing in the report for me to get excited about. Market sentiment might change with extra tourism spotlight come 2015 but that doesn't change the financials. Selling off of vans to decrease slightly I see too. A interesting company to study but not for me in the foreseeable future and I'm of the thinking this result was already echoed in the SP 3 months ago. Still have it 20-30% overpriced.

golden city

02-09-2013, 07:30 AM

the worst had passed .., my target price will be at least 90c..after interim results

Brain

02-09-2013, 03:21 PM

Big volume today - about 10 percent of the company shares have been traded

J R Ewing

02-09-2013, 03:58 PM

Yes, and the CEO is buying as well.

golden city

02-09-2013, 05:43 PM

more to come.., i love it...

golden city

03-09-2013, 08:55 PM

wow..what is the intention for milford..add to 14%stake.., with sterling., 17%..could almost prevoke a takeover bid

winner69

03-09-2013, 09:23 PM

glad they don't have my kiwisaver .... but heck we all now own a bit through the NZ Super Fund

stoploss

03-09-2013, 09:26 PM

glad they don't have my kiwisaver .... but heck we all now own a bit through the NZ Super Fund

Spending a bit of the DIL profit...plenty more to go .....

golden city

04-09-2013, 02:04 PM

spending a bit of the dil profit...plenty more to go .....

:d:d:d:d:d:d

bull....

06-09-2013, 11:38 AM

may have technically bottomed this week on a longer time frame

golden city

13-09-2013, 05:18 PM

what a good run..., looks like a solid plateform for a takeover bid

golden city

13-09-2013, 05:19 PM

move to the next target price of one dollar soon

troyvdh

13-09-2013, 09:51 PM

I love your enthusiasm....enjoy the moment and I truly hope you do well...as I believe you have a few in THL...I just wish that El Zorro...has your good fortune

golden city

14-09-2013, 10:36 AM

to be honest.., i have accumulating more than 500k of shares in THL.., average 65c.., looks like it pay off...what a fortune

benjitara

14-09-2013, 10:47 AM

to be honest.., i have accumulating more than 500k of shares in THL.., average 65c.., looks like it pay off...what a fortune

I also wish you well. Cyclical company though so $1 might be a little steep at this point as volume tends to be pretty low. A lower NZ dollar might help you out a bit! Personally I can't invest in this company at the current price but here's hoping you have a good time with the sp increase

golden city

15-09-2013, 03:04 PM

[QUOTE=benjitara;427561]I also wish you well. Cyclical company though so $1 might be a little steep at this point as volume tends to be pretty low. A lower NZ dollar might help you out a bit! Personally I can't invest in this company at the current price but here's hoping you have a good time with the sp increase[/QUOT

chairman is buying thl shares.., looks good at moment.., see if it can cross 80c next week.., once break that barrier will go straight to the dollar sign

golden city

16-09-2013, 03:55 PM

volume not bad today.., at 80cents...

bull....

16-09-2013, 05:53 PM

volume not bad today.., at 80cents...

good luck i sold out friday - never been a big fan of the model ( liked the old model better ) , but has always provided a good trade now an then:)

golden city

16-09-2013, 09:34 PM

i am not a fan of any company i am here to see how i make better profit from each companies..that is my vision and i stick with it.., soon or later i will sell too., but at the right time right prices

golden city

16-09-2013, 09:35 PM

at todays volume must someone is still accumulating.., still on the upward trends

winner69

24-09-2013, 10:44 AM

Boom time ahead for tourism in NZ
http://www.westpac.co.nz/assets/Business/Economic-Updates/2013/Bulletins-2013/Tourism-Sector-Update-September-2013.pdf

Usually a bad sign for thl shareholders these sort of headlines

golden city

25-09-2013, 08:12 AM

non sense ...it is all about the fundermental of the business.., a good headline will only become a good headline if the company it self is good

winner69

25-09-2013, 09:01 AM

non sense ...it is all about the fundermental of the business.., a good headline will only become a good headline if the company it self is good

Exactly .....is it a statement or question though?

golden city

28-09-2013, 02:45 PM

THL is on the upper trend at the moment.., targeting one dollar mark after AGM

forest

29-09-2013, 09:24 AM

I'd doubt it ... PER way too high at 75c. Sure, tourism is picking up but THL services only one small segment, I.e. those who like to see NZ using campervans. US operations add a bit of revenue smoothing but growth? Probably not much. We'll hover around the 75 mark for some time. Well at least there's the small'ish dividend yield I suppose ....
Chinese visitors set to soar
By Grant Bradley
5:30 AM Thursday Sep 12, 2013 ✩Save
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China is NZ's second-biggest source of tourists and numbers are forecast to surge 46 per cent

Air New Zealand's billboards in China reflect a change in Chinese tastes towards activity-based holidays.
The number of Chinese tourists coming to New Zealand is forecast to surge by 46 per cent with an extra 100,000 visitors during the next year, according to a tourism research agency.

China is already New Zealand's second-biggest source of tourists with 225,000 arrivals during the past year, behind Australia with almost 1.2 million.

The China Outbound Tourism Research Institute has found that close to 38 million mainland Chinese travelled to other countries around the world in the first five months of the year, a 17 per cent increase on the same period last year.

The report found a change in Chinese consumption habits with more tourists wanting to travel independently rather than on tours, and a shift from sightseeing to activity-based holidays in which they would spend more money.

The institute's New Zealand representative, Zane Smith, said that was good news for this country but some tourism operators were not ready.

Infrastructure, including hotels, was lacking in some areas and New Zealand operators needed to tailor their attractions and service standards to meet the expectations of the Chinese market.

percy

29-09-2013, 09:34 AM

Just hope none of them drive on our roads.!

iceman

29-09-2013, 09:49 AM

Chinese visitors set to soar
By Grant Bradley
5:30 AM Thursday Sep 12, 2013 ✩Save
Like on Facebook16
Tweet on Twitter22
Post on LinkedIn5
+1 on Google+1
Pin on Pinterest0
China is NZ's second-biggest source of tourists and numbers are forecast to surge 46 per cent

Air New Zealand's billboards in China reflect a change in Chinese tastes towards activity-based holidays.
The number of Chinese tourists coming to New Zealand is forecast to surge by 46 per cent with an extra 100,000 visitors during the next year, according to a tourism research agency.

China is already New Zealand's second-biggest source of tourists with 225,000 arrivals during the past year, behind Australia with almost 1.2 million.

The China Outbound Tourism Research Institute has found that close to 38 million mainland Chinese travelled to other countries around the world in the first five months of the year, a 17 per cent increase on the same period last year.

The report found a change in Chinese consumption habits with more tourists wanting to travel independently rather than on tours, and a shift from sightseeing to activity-based holidays in which they would spend more money.

The institute's New Zealand representative, Zane Smith, said that was good news for this country but some tourism operators were not ready.

Infrastructure, including hotels, was lacking in some areas and New Zealand operators needed to tailor their attractions and service standards to meet the expectations of the Chinese market.

Good to see Air NZ marketing well in China. However, it is of concern that NZ has to date not capitalised on this trend in China and as a percentage of Chinese travelers, fewer of them are thinking of NZ as a destination. We may be increasing the numbers but not proportional to the increase in Chinese traveling overseas. So we are losing the battle. NZ needs to do better and I think our very restrictive Visa requirements for Chinese play a significant role in this.

macduffy

29-09-2013, 09:54 AM

We may be increasing the numbers but not proportional to the increase in Chinese traveling overseas.

Should we be surprised when the Chinese have the choice of many cheaper, closer destinations for their overseas experience?

iceman

29-09-2013, 12:27 PM

Should we be surprised when the Chinese have the choice of many cheaper, closer destinations for their overseas experience?

No not at all. That's my point, a huge increase in tourist numbers from China does not automatically mean huge increases in Chinese tourist arrivals in NZ. NZ needs to continually work hard on marketing and providing the right and continually changing service to meet the demand.
Agree with belg that Chinese tourists will have a limited effect on THL. They still travel largely in organised tour groups.

forest

29-09-2013, 01:29 PM

[QUOTE=belgarion;430063]The Camper Van Holding Company isn't going to have too many Chinese driving their own campers. It's just not the way they holiday. If THL were to provide drivers and run "convoys" of 5-10 at a time then maybe - but it'll be a drop in the ocean. THL needs the Europeans and Ockers back (who are the major hirers) and that'll be a few years away yet.[/QUOTE

Belgarion the interesting fact I get from this report is that not only there are more Chinese tourist, but they are changing the way they have their holidays. Chinese are becoming more independent travellers like westerners and this should benefit THL in my opinion. The following sentence is a direct quote from the report.

"The report found
a change in Chinese consumption habits with more tourists wanting to travel independently rather than on tours, and a shift from sightseeing to activity-based holidays in which they would spend more money."

golden city

01-10-2013, 08:57 PM

share price stablise at moment.., wait for the dividends..not bad yields

benjitara

02-10-2013, 05:50 PM

I can confirm (through my close involvement with the business in question, not employed by them personally) that numbers of Asian people hiring vans is on the way up. There has been a noticeable change in the number of Asian customers.

Disc: Not holding and will not be holding this stock at the current price.

golden city

07-10-2013, 03:53 PM

consolidation week.., with dividends comming soon

golden city

23-10-2013, 02:50 PM

up and up again..., what a good sign

golden city

25-10-2013, 02:22 PM

nov AGM will be good..comments..around

golden city

30-10-2013, 01:56 PM

here she goes again..up to 90c soon

golden city

05-11-2013, 10:50 AM

someone is accumulating lots of THL shares at 80c..

golden city

16-11-2013, 03:55 PM

breaks 81c now..will break out to a new high soon with good forecast on the way in agm

winner69

16-11-2013, 04:13 PM

Yep going well at the mo eh

Would only be a recent high

Long. Way off the 270 odd that shareholders got offered by some Aussie outfit in 2007 o there abouts ...and was close to 400 .last century

Poet

16-11-2013, 05:14 PM

And here's something to think about

The interislander ferry company is now no longer taking bookings for vehicles (still some capacity on Bluebridge ferries). It is unlikely that interislander will carry any more campers this summer season - the bluebridge will fill quite quickly once the general public understand the situation.

Given that a large number of European visitors "do" both islands, this shortage of capacity will have quite an effect on THL's summer season?

More importantly, THL doesn't seem to think that this situation merits a release to NZX, although they must be seriously concerned

golden city

16-11-2013, 10:30 PM

2.70 will be a bit too far away to think of.., dollar mark is the potentail at present

Poet

18-11-2013, 10:52 AM

Maybe, maybe not - Agree a statement to the NZX wouldn't be a bad idea. However, it would be better for the vans if they were left at one end and a new one picked up at the other end. Bit of a scheduling issue and some redundancy having enough supply at both ends but probably not a biggie?

The big plus is that tourism is picking up in dollars spent per tourist. The downside is the shortage of capacity over the strait.

Bit of a scheduling issue and some redundancy having enough supply at both ends but probably not a biggie?

I assume that you do realise that THL doesn't have depots at either Wellington or Picton. I am not sure how you would see them doing the swap of vehicles (cleaning vehicles, completing contracts etc)

macduffy

18-11-2013, 12:15 PM

Is there also an issue in that overseas visitors may not be too thrilled with the idea of having to pack everything up for the inter-island transfer without a vehicle? Part of the appeal of a campervan, I would have thought, would be the convenience of not having to pack and unpack along the way.

But I don't hold THL - too capital intensive for my liking.

J R Ewing

19-11-2013, 09:12 AM

But I don't hold THL - too capital intensive for my liking.

This seems to be an industry wide structural problem. Kea and United sold to THL for less than asset values. Perhaps that indicates that maybe the depreciation rates used by the camper industry are a bit light, and asset values are overstated - there is no ready market for large numbers of campers. But anyway the underlying issue is that the operators need more revenue off a given vehicle, and maybe that becomes an expensive holiday in comparison with the rental car/B&B/motel alternative.
The other sector of the market, the non self contained converted Previa or similar is also coming under pressure from the crack-down on freedom campers spoiling rest areas and other places etc.

golden city

20-11-2013, 10:33 PM

THL is on its way to a new high ..81c..looks broken tomorrow

golden city

21-11-2013, 09:19 PM

i am betting it all the way from 59c.., will keep betting it on..

golden city

26-11-2013, 09:48 PM

bingo.., it is going going breaking up up up

forest

27-11-2013, 05:36 PM

GC, you'd be pretty pleased with the bullish outlook?

I was at the meeting, whats gives me confidence is that my body language

of the recently new chairman Rob Campbell is such that the outlook is believable.

Looks like THL might have turned around for the better.

benjitara

27-11-2013, 06:32 PM

troyvdh

27-11-2013, 06:33 PM

dear GC...well done ...you have remained positive....you held the faith...knowing that you have **** loads....go well...now ...DO NOT LOOSE IT...ok...cheers troy...

golden city

27-11-2013, 09:52 PM

thanks.man.., i am winning lotto today..****.., huge account boosted

forest

27-11-2013, 09:54 PM

I find the P/EPS to be disconcerting with this stock. They may have market share in new Zealand and growth opp overseas but to me a P/EPS of 30 or so indicates a much more robust outlook than they could possibly be confident in achieving.“

We will deliver a proper commercial return of funds employed and we will do so no later than the end of
the 2015 financial year,” he said. Rob Campbell in Media Release today.

So proper commercial return of funds employed one would think has to be a minimum of 8.4%.
Total assets as per 2013 annual report 330mil.

So it seems to me that potentially THL is expected to make 27mil plus profit.

Market cap after today SP rise to $1.00 is about $110mil.

So if my fate is correct in the media release 2015 forward looking P/E 110mil/27mil just over 4.

Yes this would be a big improvement for THL but remember THL US is already returning 8.4% on assets and the Chinese are expecting to extent the peak season for NZ tourist companies as their holiday season does not exactly overlap other markets.

golden city

27-11-2013, 10:00 PM

27m is a bit too carry away at present..i am anticipating 20 to 22 million before interest and tax..., so 1.40-1.60 a share is thinkable

golden city

27-11-2013, 10:13 PM

27m is a bit too carry away at present..i am anticipating 20 to 22 million before interest and tax..., so 1.40-1.60 a share is thinkable

forest

27-11-2013, 10:15 PM

27m is a bit too carry away at present..i am anticipating 20 to 22 million before interest and tax..., so 1.40-1.60 a share is thinkable

I agree with you that 27mil NPAT seems unlikely with THL history of lack of returns on assets. But a return of less than 8.4% on assets to me seems to low. This fc is 2 years out so there is aways a fair amount of assumption. Rob Campbell (new chairman) to me seems not the guy who will promise what he is unlikely able to deliver. Time will tell but it is fair to say some positives times for THL to come.

golden city

27-11-2013, 10:17 PM

i read the statement.., i can havey felt the desire to achive ..which is a good sign

golden city

27-11-2013, 10:17 PM

share price still got some way to go at least to 1.20 at present

golden city

27-11-2013, 10:18 PM

dividends will be 6 to 7c this year i guessed

winner69

28-11-2013, 08:10 AM

Well done golden city ... a buck eh

Another lifestyle block coming up?

golden city

28-11-2013, 09:06 AM

i am looking for a one at coastville cheers haha

troyvdh

28-11-2013, 05:23 PM

Dear GC....there comes a point "when one gloats to much".........just privately rejoice in that you out thought many experienced others....go well...

golden city

28-11-2013, 08:17 PM

i am just enjoying couple days haha..will back to normal look for the next darling.., THL is full stop for me in denfence for half year.., it pays off very well... it doubled my porfolio...so at some point will diversify a bit.., will only retent the winning half for dividends.

golden city

28-11-2013, 08:19 PM

i am just trying to setup my porfolio into massive.., so i can do full time on this.., no more day job for me hoohoo

forest

29-11-2013, 03:32 PM

27m is a bit too carry away at present..i am anticipating 20 to 22 million before interest and tax..., so 1.40-1.60 a share is thinkable

I have been thinking about 2015 NP results for THL, I came up with 27mil as previous mentioned based on Rob Campbell assurance of proper commercial returns on assets in 2015 year.

Golden city you anticipate 21mil plus or minus 1mil before interest and tax.

If I assume interest of 5 mil for 2015 (was 7.3mil 2013) than we get 16mil P before tax.

Say round figures tax on 16mil is 5mil than NPAT for 2015 would be according you $11mil.

THL currently has $330mil in total assets so $11mil NP would give only a 3.3% return on assets.

I do not think many investors would call 3.3% return on assets proper commercial returns.

I notice today Milford has increased their holding in THL and I would expect them to have higher expectations than 3.3% return on assets.

golden city

29-11-2013, 03:53 PM

22m was my guess for this year not 2015 my dear.., i haven't guess on 2015 yet.., as i mentioned before someone is accumulating at around 80c.., now we all know it is milford accumulating...good sign for future..

golden city

29-11-2013, 03:53 PM

at current price still a good entry point.., could up to 1.40 or more after feb

troyvdh

29-11-2013, 04:49 PM

Dear GC....your statement about going full time on this.....That fairly sent shivers down my spine.

Back in the lateish eighties...many folk having had quite spectacular success (often their first)..decided ..hey this is easy....

Take heed GC...keep your feet firmly on the ground.

macduffy

29-11-2013, 05:13 PM

Why do I keep hearing echoes of Trans Tours ( circa 1970's)?

golden city

29-11-2013, 05:30 PM

this is different my friend.., of course i am not just depend on trading shares for a living.., it just give me a full time job of doing it..,because i got rental investments as well.., be positive about it my friend...., i am just expecting my first christmas baby ..so i need take time off work anyway... but thanks for advice

golden city

29-11-2013, 05:32 PM

i am just turns into my 30s this year ..so pretty time to go hard ..play hard. enjoy hard too

golden city

29-11-2013, 05:44 PM

to review my big bids for the last a few years.., i had some big up and downs.., had good success with such as rbd, cha,fph,cvt,air,and thl..so on..., the worst was bio,rak..and ppl.., so end of the i still manage to get average around 30-40% a year.., had managed to top my portfolio up to million.., i need a break anyway.., sold my takeaway business too., so is time to have a bit of enjoyment.

troyvdh

29-11-2013, 06:37 PM

go well ...do not forget...making the stuff is entirely different to keeping it....Kiwis are hopeless at keeping it....take care of yourself...reflect often...seek advice of elders...troy......

a baby you say....congratulations....rejoice ....

golden city.....KEEP what you made....troy

golden city

29-11-2013, 09:55 PM

sure lucky christmas baby..boy..i am glad..very happy..right time

golden city

04-12-2013, 12:30 PM

mildford still add stocks.. good sign

golden city

09-12-2013, 12:29 PM

another good trade....more than seven millions shares change hand.., who is the seller and who is the buyer will see...

golden city

10-12-2013, 01:42 PM

mildford is topping up again..., almost to 19% mark

golden city

10-01-2014, 10:51 AM

it is cracking to new high again soon

golden city

16-01-2014, 09:10 AM

milford still adding shares.

golden city

16-01-2014, 09:10 AM

will be another good year ahead

golden city

18-01-2014, 07:18 AM

milford might see it's self as a important part ..when the takeover comes

scamper

19-01-2014, 10:59 PM

The last six months have seen the best (the only notable) up-trend since 2009.
However, apart from the 10 and 8 million bundles, the volumes have been feeble.
I don't really remember ever having faith in this outfit, even though have had a small bunch stuff in the kennel for years.
A takeover would be a great idea...

benjitara

29-01-2014, 07:15 PM

The change in location will be interesting to see in Christchurch. set down for early March.

silverblizzard888

29-01-2014, 11:54 PM

bull....

30-01-2014, 07:25 AM

A basic assumption is that generally THL have to grow sales to acheive the return on funds employed to acceptable levels , the fact they havent acheived this over the last 2 years is due to the GFC so how they going to acheive this going forward?
Well I dont believe it is going to be from traditional customer base as this is probably in long term decline now due to shift in demographic wealth patterns so unless they change their business model to incorporate this the only way I see they can grow sales is thru acquisition which seems to be the path they are intending to follow.
The problem for long term investors is that at some point growth by aquisition no longer works and you will not get your return on funds.
Personally I liked their growth model they started in 2007 but have abandoned now as this would have provided the long term returns going forward because they would have been in the position to catch the demographic trend change as well as catching the synergies and margins from controlling the supply chain in effect.

So im in for the short term and wish long term holders good luck but unfortunately I find it hard to see how their current model will deliver long term wealth to shareholders.
So I suggest if you are long term holder you need to ask some serious questions at their AGM about their long term strategy and also how they are going to grow their sales by aquisition to acheive the return on funds in the short term:p

3018

I still maintain my original analysis growth by aquisition only works for a while, they still havnt addressed the largest growth market

J R Ewing

30-01-2014, 08:25 AM

It seems like a good business, except the debt of course. Everything seems to be up in revenue except Australian market which was quite a bit down, though with economies picking up then. Still its delivering 3.8 million in profits (though down from 4.3 million). Revenues are likely to improve on the back of strong economies and good tourism. I think what Milford may also see is that its hindered by massive debt that they are managing to pay off at a decent rate. Given interest expense is about 7 million a year, if they can reduce interest a bit that adds onto profit quite a bit. Also they are reducing expenses too which is a good sign too.

This could be what Peter Lynch calls a turnaround business when economies are up tourism is good and it thrives, but when things are down its down also. You can see back in 2007 when things were up it was thriving, but the business has suffered quite a bit due to recession. You can also see in the 2000s when things were at its peak it was also thriving. Good bets that this year and next year it could well be on the up. Coincidences? Maybe but every time the economy is on full peaks it goes to $2.50 per share. Take what you will from this, but most important of all DYOR!

Not a holder, but my concern would be that while they are paying off debt - maybe the fleet is aging at the same time. The risk I see is that if they are to take advantage of a recovery it might require a significant capital expenditure to get the fleet back to acceptable age and condition. I think this basic equation has been a challenge for a number of years - the market is not prepared to pay the high prices required to provide an economic return on what are very expensive vehicles. It's by no means a cheap holiday when compared with the rental car/motel/b&b alternative.

golden city

12-02-2014, 08:29 PM

half year report comming,..., at the current trend.., looks good...

golden city

16-02-2014, 03:42 PM

with a good forecast.., share price could reach 2 dollar mark again

golden city

17-02-2014, 10:08 AM

the depth looks good..ever..., indicating a very good result comming.., with dividend high

golden city

20-02-2014, 05:36 PM

i can't resisted., that i have bought some more THL shares

golden city

26-02-2014, 08:36 AM

big day today..

golden city

26-02-2014, 09:58 AM

well down .5 cents dividends

Hawkeye

26-02-2014, 10:30 AM

https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/247500

golden city

26-02-2014, 10:40 AM

10.5m net profit., which indicating 22m ebt

biker

26-02-2014, 12:25 PM

Share price finally gets back to where it was TEN years ago.

winner69

26-02-2014, 12:30 PM

Share price finally gets back to where it was TEN years ago.

So buying and holding does work

biker

26-02-2014, 12:39 PM

So buying and holding does work

and what a fine example (complete Tui ad here............)

golden city

26-02-2014, 12:56 PM

i am so glad ..god..

golden city

26-02-2014, 05:23 PM

i am picking end of the year.., price will be at 1.59 to 2.38 range

golden city

26-02-2014, 05:40 PM

total dividends of 10c a year alone will push the price to around 1.50..

golden city

26-02-2014, 05:48 PM

total dividends of 10c a year alone will push the price to around 1.50.. with 2015 forecast of achieving of 14% of fund returns.., it will push up earning to about 15c per share....

modandm

28-02-2014, 09:28 AM

I might have to take a close look at THL, seems like the kind of cyclical company I could be interested in. It has a track record of terrible management though.

Re the dividend you should note that THL doesn't have imputation credits after this dividend, so yield is not actually that good in future.

looking at eps the company only deliver 2.2c for the half year. So the dividend of 5c is quite misleading.

If you say they can make 5c total eps this year they trade on over 22x PE, vs Air NZ which trades on less than 10x, there is a big valuation difference. The question should be what can this company earn in FY15? 10c or more and it could be interesting...

golden city

28-02-2014, 11:38 AM

it is already forecast..10.5m earning this year..my friend., which is around 10c per share for 2014..,pe is aroudn 11 to 12 at moment., where is the PE 22 came from?

Balance

03-03-2014, 05:42 PM

Rob Campbell buying.

Good sign so on my action list now.

Followed him into GPG and that has been a winner.

golden city

03-03-2014, 09:50 PM

very good sign in deep., he is buying at 1.17..which is close to the current high.., indicating lot more to come

golden city

03-03-2014, 09:50 PM

i am looking at around 1.30-1.50 soon

benjitara

05-03-2014, 01:26 PM

J R Ewing

05-03-2014, 01:59 PM

The only real problem I have is that I don't see this as sustainable given fleet sales have had a very positive effect on figures. How will this effect overall figures going forward. selling off assets (depreciating assets) suits a business that is cutting costs currently. the relationship between the cyclical nature of the business and the assets needed to operate make it a difficult business to gauge. Not to mention that the return on equity is dismal really.

Getting an economic return on assets employed is certainly the challenge they face. They need to get good money on rental for the Campers as they are not cheap vehicles to replace. This has been a problem for a few years now, especially in markets where the currency is strong. Australia has been something of a train wreck the past couple of years and has had a VERY high dollar. The NZD is high, and returns here are not that great. Roadbear seems to have gone well in USA and that coincides with a weak USD. In the medium and long term they need to be able to replace fleet as well as generate a decent return on the capital employed.

golden city

06-03-2014, 09:31 AM

it is a trend play.., why worry too much....

golden city

06-03-2014, 09:32 AM

remember stock is not your wife.., make your play and said good bye .

forest

11-04-2014, 03:29 PM

https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/249407

Rob Campbell sounded confident at the AGM that he can improve THL profits and now he is backing this up with some THL share purchases in march and April.

golden city

11-04-2014, 04:06 PM

always looking good.., when chiarman keep topping

golden city

14-04-2014, 04:09 PM

something is good going on in THL.., shares moving up with volume .better than usual

macduffy

14-04-2014, 04:58 PM

Tourism sector benefitting from royal tour feel good factor/publicity?

golden city

14-04-2014, 05:15 PM

not only that.., chairman is still buying..., thinking a massive profit improvement or even a takeover offer comming soon..,

golden city

14-04-2014, 05:17 PM

dividends comming in three days time., so shareprice will even going up more..when people received thier dividends..

Balance

14-04-2014, 06:19 PM

not only that.., chairman is still buying..., thinking a massive profit improvement or even a takeover offer comming soon..,

Haha - THL is the perennial blushing bride-to-be. Who knows she will actually get married one of these days and be carried away from Prince Charming!

Remember the lucky (for THL) escape from MFS? Not so lucky for the shareholders who missed out on a $2.70 offer!

golden city

14-04-2014, 09:13 PM

i was very lucky at that time.., i sold it when the takeover announcement..so didn't wait they say yes or no..

modandm

15-04-2014, 09:42 AM

remember stock is not your wife.., make your play and said good bye .

you did that with air nz and sold at the wrong time.

I say get to know the company - when you know more than others you can profit

golden city

15-04-2014, 11:59 AM

right or wrong., is depending on what you use the funds for., i sold out air.., bought in APN..which is getting great result for me

golden city

21-04-2014, 01:43 PM

full confidence on this one., will buying more ..

golden city

29-04-2014, 09:26 AM

continues to buy cambell

Balance

29-04-2014, 10:57 AM

continues to buy cambell

Reminds me of GPG (and SKC) - when the right buyer appears, and keeps on buying, good sign.

golden city

29-04-2014, 11:34 AM

looking good...profit must exceeded forecast

golden city

01-05-2014, 08:50 PM

still buying..,

bunter

05-05-2014, 02:13 PM

Not just Campbell.
On-market purchases by related parties this year (in round numbers):
Campbell 210k @ 1.14
Web 140k@1.165
Hall 200k@1.13
Davies 30k@1.16
Lewington 154k@1.15

Milford has also bought heavily recently - near 20% shareholder now.

Buying when directors buy is a proven successful strategy.

noodles

07-05-2014, 09:12 AM

golden city

08-06-2014, 06:41 PM

just patiently waiting and adding .

golden city

13-06-2014, 10:05 PM

consolidation is almost over.., soon will see THL breakout again

golden city

23-06-2014, 10:16 PM

More tourists from the United States and Japan have seen visitor arrivals hit a record for May at 161,400.

In the year to the end of May, visitor arrivals were up 6 per cent to almost 2.8 million, according to Statistics NZ figures.

Visitor arrivals are up despite the high New Zealand dollar.

"Visitor arrivals are higher than they have ever been for a May month," Statistics NZ population statistics project manager Susan Hollows said. "Holidaymakers arriving from the United States and Japan contributed to the increase in visitors in May."

New Zealanders too more than 198,000 overseas trips in May, up 9 per cent from the same month last year.

For the 12 months to May, New Zealanders took 2.3 million overseas trips, up 3 per cent.

winner69

02-07-2014, 08:47 AM

Big pay day for you today golden boy

A rare event this is ...a profit upgrade from thl

Cherish it

Balance

02-07-2014, 09:06 AM

Big pay day for you today golden boy

A rare event this is ...a profit upgrade from thl

Cherish it

Let's hope that like RBD when it changed management but just as important, Chairman and some board members, THL can deliver consistent results from hereon in.

Balance

02-07-2014, 10:07 AM

consolidation is almost over.., soon will see THL breakout again

$1.20 so it is breakout time?

forest

02-07-2014, 11:54 AM

THL - Market Update
8:35am, 2 Jul 2014 | FORECAST
2 July 2014

NZX Market Release

Tourism Holdings Limited (THL)
Market Update
With the financial year at an end, thl can advise that based on a review of the non-audited FY14 financial results, thl’s Net Profit After Tax will meet or exceed the forecast which was released to the market in February 2014.

Net Debt will be below $90M compared with the $95M forecast in February.

Early forecasts are being completed for the FY15 year and will be discussed in more detail with the Annual Results announcement on August 26th, 2014.

At this point in time we are confident of achieving further growth in FY15 and delivering the key objectives set at the 2013 Annual Meeting. Those objectives included achieving an appropriate rate of return on funds employed in the Australian and New Zealand rentals businesses.

No further indications or details can be provided at this point in time until the full accounts are completed and audited.

Authorised by:

Rob Campbell
Chairman
Tourism Holdings Limited

In round numbers the NZ and AUS rentals had a total assets of 240mil at 31-12-13. Would it be to optimistic to expect a 10% return on this say 24mil. Take off this 7mil interest cost and there would be 17mil profit left on just the NZ and AUS rentals alone. I know this is a very simplistic way of looking at the financials but it illustrate that things are on the up as far as I see them.
What do others think?

noodles

02-07-2014, 12:09 PM

Great question forest. In the US, THL is returning 20% on funds employed.

Also I expect interest cost to be much lower next year as debt is much lower. Maybe $5mill

noodles

winner69

02-07-2014, 02:10 PM

Round numbers currently thl have $250m invested in the business (equity $160m plus debt $90m)

Forecast EBIt is $21m - probably a bit higher now so lets say $23m.

After tax operating profit therefore about $16m(their tax a bit complicated so used 30%)

So return on invested capital is 6% odd .....not covering their cost of capital (PWC say this is 10.5%)

But obviously improving performance - more profit / less debt (ie less invested capital)

So first target should be ROIC of at least 10% - say 2015 debt gets further reduced by increase in retained earnings so capital stays at $250m this needs EBIT of around $35m

They seem intent on achieving this soon ...the 2015 forecast will be interesting.

The market has yet to price in such performance - the past baggage thl has still hanging around

J R Ewing

02-07-2014, 02:48 PM

Balance

02-07-2014, 02:55 PM

It's certainly an improving performance. One potential problem I see is that while debt may be reducing the average age of the fleet might be increasing. That could mean taking on more debt or raising more equity in order to bring the fleet back up to the required standard at some point in the future.

That has always been THL's problem - replacing its aging fleet.

Not sure what the answer is but selling in bulk into the second hand market was a dumb idea which cost the company plenty in the past - many were bought and then, rented out in competition!

Beagle

02-07-2014, 02:57 PM

forest

02-07-2014, 03:25 PM

Gents, we all know this has historically been a very cyclical company so while Rob Campbell is inferring a stronger 2015, so is AIR.
Might be a bit early to be calling for consistent growth, does a cyclical company, (leopard), really change its spots ?

I think Rob Campbell is suggesting quite a sizeable upturn, how sizeable I am trying to work out, but to me it seems that it is worth the time to look into.

Beagle

02-07-2014, 03:41 PM

I think Rob Campbell is suggesting quite a sizeable upturn, how sizeable I am trying to work out, but to me it seems that it is worth the time to look into.

How do the companies compare on a 2014 PE basis if we assume AIR makes $240m after tax = 21.6 eps for a PE of 9.9 times at latest price of $2.14
THL $10.5m / 111.8m shares = EPS of 9.392 cps = 2014 PE of 12.45...albeit with the Chairman saying they're likely to beat previous guidance.

Given there's questions about how THL keep their fleet modern, whereas on the other hand AIR has well articulated plans for a fleet modernisation programme should THL really be trading at a higher relative PE given its lower liquidity ? I guess it all depends on how much people think AIR and THL respectively will grow their 2015 and beyond earnings.

For my money I think Air have the more definitive strategy and superior previous record.