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J R Ewing
02-07-2014, 04:05 PM
That has always been THL's problem - replacing its aging fleet.

Not sure what the answer is but selling in bulk into the second hand market was a dumb idea which cost the company plenty in the past - many were bought and then, rented out in competition!

That might have been a bit of an issue in the past but there are not many operators running clapped out old proper self-contained campers. The competition is more from the converted Previa or similar (not self contained) and the rental car/motel/B&B alternative.

But the whole tourism sector is going better now. They should certainly post some improved results over the next year or two (barring catastrophes like Chch of course).

Beagle
02-07-2014, 04:11 PM
Guidance was NPAT $10.5m ...doing better so say $12m

PE at shareprice 117 then 11.1

About what AIR was a few weeks ago

Thanks, I did some of my own homework and edited that post but yeah, I think your estimate for improved performance on previous guidance looks fair enough mate but the baggage this company carries from the past should serve as a warning as to the cyclical extremes this company has to endure. Taking into account the lower liquidity and implied higher risk premium I'm not leaping on the buy button but will put it on my watch list :) Rob Campbell is a good operator, something I am sure many on here would agree.

forest
02-07-2014, 04:12 PM
Can I pick your brains mate. How do the companies compare on a 2014 PE basis if we assume AIR makes $240m after tax = 21.6 eps for a PE of 9.9 times at latest price of $2.14 ?

THL Feb FC was 10.5mil profit lets assume after today announcement 11mil profit. This would give THL a 2014 P/E of 11.4. Not spectacular for a cyclical company but it is the 2015 profits which could look interesting.

Beagle
02-07-2014, 04:18 PM
Sorry mate, I'm impatient as well as lazy, LOL, so did my own number crunching as you can see. Some are picking EPS for AIR of 30 ish cps for 2015 so THL forward guidance would have to be really strong to get me on board.

forest
02-07-2014, 05:11 PM
Sorry mate, I'm impatient as well as lazy, LOL, so did my own number crunching as you can see. Some are picking EPS for AIR of 30 ish cps for 2015 so THL forward guidance would have to be really strong to get me on board.


Not disagreeing that AIR is a good cyclical play or trying to get you on the THL share holders register. I am just pointing out that todays announcement together with previous announcements and insiders buying I think its worth spending a little time looking at THL. :)

golden city
02-07-2014, 10:04 PM
THL will surprise everyone in 2015 forecast.., which i guess will be around 17c per share.at a apropriate return.., at pe 10., it should be 1.70 ..in 2015

noodles
02-07-2014, 11:04 PM
THL will surprise everyone in 2015 forecast.., which i guess will be around 17c per share.at a apropriate return.., at pe 10., it should be 1.70 ..in 2015
Wow that is pretty bullish. How do you see them doing that?

I think they will increase their NPAT by at least $2mill through a reduction in depreciation and interest costs alone. If they can improve their underlying business as well, then they might be able to reach your magic 17cps.

I hope you are right!

percy
03-07-2014, 07:17 AM
Can anyone point me at THL's utilisation rates? I.e. how spare capacity have they had in the last few years.

Just crunching through the numbers based on the NZ Herald link above to see what their bottom line looks like, and it looks good, but only if they have spare capacity (or can ramp up prices!) :)

Have no idea,yet when ever I drove past their ChCh depot there were always hundreds of their vans ,just sitting outside in their yard depreciating.
The thought of under utilised capital wasting away,needing to be replaced with new capital ,has always encouraged me to invest elsewhere.
I would take a drive past any of their depots, and check it out for yourself before buying into this company.
The season for rental companies runs from about October through to March/April.Car rental companies buy in vehicles for October start, then sell excess when the season is finished.Vans take a lot more capital,and need to be retained [capital tied up] for longer.

Balance
03-07-2014, 09:36 AM
Some very good points made re THL vs AIR, and the capital intensive nature of the rental vans business.

Here's hoping that THL, after many cycles of boom and bust with the rental van business (going as far back 20 years ago!) has finally learnt how to manage the cycle.

Beagle
03-07-2014, 11:07 AM
Not disagreeing that AIR is a good cyclical play or trying to get you on the THL share holders register. I am just pointing out that todays announcement together with previous announcements and insiders buying I think its worth spending a little time looking at THL. :)
Agreed, well worth keeping an eye on :)

Some very good points made re THL vs AIR, and the capital intensive nature of the rental vans business.

Here's hoping that THL, after many cycles of boom and bust with the rental van business (going as far back 20 years ago!) has finally learnt how to manage the cycle.
As most of you know AIR leases a lot of its wide body fleet at exceptionally low finance rates removing both the residual value risk and enabling financing at U.S.interest rates.
I think two of the biggest issues with rental vans is the relatively short N.Z. season and very low barriers to entry in the industry...sell off old vans opens the door to other competitors to buy them up.
As you've quite correctly noted Balance, long history shows its difficult to get adequate returns on rental fleets across the varying tourism cycles and I struggle to see how that's going to change going forward with so few barriers to entry. As Percy has hinted at and the company itself acknowledges, there's still plenty of spare capacity in the rental van industry whereas on the other hand AIR flies around with 80%+ load factors most of the year.

My own investment view with small cap illiquid stocks is I expect a pretty good discount to a large cap stock to compensate for the illiquidity. It'll be interesting to see if THL's forecast eludes to this being a possibility in the year ahead, relative to AIR.

J R Ewing
03-07-2014, 12:30 PM
Agreed, well worth keeping an eye on :)

I think two of the biggest issues with rental vans is the relatively short N.Z. season and very low barriers to entry in the industry...sell off old vans opens the door to other competitors to buy them up.
As you've quite correctly noted Balance, long history shows its difficult to get adequate returns on rental fleets across the varying tourism cycles and I struggle to see how that's going to change going forward with so few barriers to entry. As Percy has hinted at and the company itself acknowledges, there's still plenty of spare capacity in the rental van industry whereas on the other hand AIR flies around with 80%+ load factors most of the year.



I don't agree with some of the points you raised above:

1. Low barrier to entry. I don't think that this is the case. For a new entrant to become a serious competitor to THL in their core business of hiring full size self-contained campers, there are considerable barriers to entry. It will take quite a bit of capital because these are not cheap vehicles. It is not easy to find suitable locations close to the major airports. There are airport licencing requirements, although these are a relatively minor obstacle. Much of the business comes from wholesale travel agents with whom THL has a long standing relationship. It would not be a trivial task to go to Europe and convince these agents to switch to a new operator, and even if successful there would be a fairly long lead time required. Although a new competitor could probably make better inroads in direct sales, via internet.
2. Competition from vans they are selling off. The reason they are selling off these old vans is essentially that they are no longer fit for purpose. If a competitor is buying these and they are STARTING on their fleet at that point, then they are really operating in a different market segment altogether. THL's real competitors, like Apollo and Jucy, use newly fitted out campers (Apollo does their own fit out). A holiday in a self contained, reliable (not too old) camper is not a cheap option. Sure, some tourists will not recognize that you get what you pay for and will figure they can have the same holiday in a clapped out old camper at half the price. But usually the result of that is that half the holiday is ruined by various equipment breakdowns and other problems.

IMO, the challenge for THL is that a proper, decent, holiday in a camper is competing with a cheaper rental car/motel/B&B alternative. Now these are two quite different holidays, but how much more are customers prepared to pay for the camper experience? It seems to me that THL has had to price the campers too cheaply to make an economic return on assets. Can they streamline their business to make an economic return at the prices that customers are willing to pay for the experience? That's the challenge. Everyone in the industry has gone through a few lean years in both NZ and Australia, some companies haven't survived at all and some have been bought out by THL. But times are improving and THL seems to be getting it's act together.

winner69
03-07-2014, 12:34 PM
thl guy on the radio this morning not worried about ne competitors

He said main reason a few years operators borrowed almost 100% to get vehicles but now they need a lot more equity

It was also mentioned there were 400 odd operators in Auckland ...gee whizz that's a lot

http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/2601961

J R Ewing
03-07-2014, 01:06 PM
There is no way that there are 400 licensed rental operators in Auckland. Maybe they are including backpackers that sell cheap cars on a buy back basis, but even then 400 must be stretching it.

golden city
03-07-2014, 03:33 PM
THL is in breaking point now., big volume clear at 1.20...,looks bright ahead

golden city
09-07-2014, 04:48 PM
looks solid.., before it expose

golden city
22-08-2014, 11:40 AM
looks break out time..., soon 1.50

golden city
25-08-2014, 04:19 PM
tomorrow THL will provide a good forecast for next year...looks strong ahead

golden city
25-08-2014, 04:20 PM
expecting cross 1.50 soon

glennj
26-08-2014, 05:48 PM
expecting cross 1.50 soon

You were correct about the 1.20 level golden city and hope you are with 1.50
It's not a co I pay much attention but I did notice it jumped 12 cents on reasonable volume today.
Have they finally sorted the business out?
Some may have done well buying back when it was well below a dollar. (I'm not one)
Good on those that got on for the ride.

golden city
27-08-2014, 10:30 PM
certainly it is well under way

troyvdh
27-08-2014, 11:58 PM
dear Golden...please stop "rubbing it in".....cheers enjoy...

dingoNZ
29-08-2014, 10:21 AM
Independent Research just completed by Edison - FYI.

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/company/tourism-holdings

PDF of research findings: https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCEQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.edisoninvestmentresearch.com% 2F%3FACT%3D18%26ID%3D12597&ei=8Kr_U8mdKpOQuASY24CoCw&usg=AFQjCNHdUQUvG5AnV6JeS2VLoW4MMIRF9A&sig2=zXWNh51LzHxU9l9VYTLz3w

Balance
29-08-2014, 10:35 AM
dear Golden...please stop "rubbing it in".....cheers enjoy...

Keep rubbing, gc - seems to be doing the trick like rubbing Aladdin's lamp!

It could back up one day to the days when it was over $2.50.

One thing that THL has shown (like Skellerup and Hellaby) is that good management can turn the volume into profits - despite headwinds of exchange rate.

winner69
29-08-2014, 10:43 AM
Keep rubbing, gc - seems to be doing the trick like rubbing Aladdin's lamp!

It could back up one day to the days when it was over $2.50.

One thing that THL has shown (like Skellerup and Hellaby) is that good management can turn the volume into profits - despite headwinds of exchange rate.

What did those Aussies offer for THL a few years ago .... $2.70 odd wasn't it

But those Aussies didn't really know the value of money did they

Balance
29-08-2014, 01:35 PM
What did those Aussies offer for THL a few years ago .... $2.70 odd wasn't it

But those Aussies didn't really know the value of money did they

Same idiots who bought Gullivers' Travel and Strategic Finance.

Some of us are grateful they made the takeover offer though. :D

And even more grateful to the two institutions who rejected the offer so we can have another bite at this juicy peach. :D

Beagle
29-08-2014, 02:34 PM
Independent Research just completed by Edison - FYI.

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/company/tourism-holdings

PDF of research findings: https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCEQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.edisoninvestmentresearch.com% 2F%3FACT%3D18%26ID%3D12597&ei=8Kr_U8mdKpOQuASY24CoCw&usg=AFQjCNHdUQUvG5AnV6JeS2VLoW4MMIRF9A&sig2=zXWNh51LzHxU9l9VYTLz3w

Thanks for sharing.

golden city
29-08-2014, 10:54 PM
this is great.. .,more than happy to sit and wait for the dividends..

noodles
30-08-2014, 08:17 AM
Brian Gaynor gives them a writeup in the herald. Talks about change of management being the catalyst.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11316404

Beagle
30-08-2014, 08:59 AM
I started to get enthusiastic yesterday after reading the research but then I got to wondering....
Its a notoriously cyclical stock on a trailing PE of 14.5 compared to AIR on 9 and a bit which is a company that's also confident of earnings growth and perhaps more importantly is gradually building its gross sales numbers.
Even if THL make next year's confident prediction of $15m, (early days to make that call with a lot of water to go under the bridge for the 2015 year) that puts them on a PE of 9 for 2015.
Its a small company and much more illiquid than AIR and interestingly I noted virtually no top line revenue growth at all from THL so effectively profit growth is coming solely from Rob Campbell's magic in wringing more efficiency out of the business....and of course there's a natural limit to how far than can progress.

A further reality nugget popped up when I noted tax losses are now extinguished and they're moving to a tax paying position this year which will obviously have quite an effect on profits in future years, whereas AIR are paying hefty taxes already. I was getting all excited and then reality set in. That said its probably better value than most companies on the NZX and provides diversification to one's portfolio.
For my money, I'll just cuddle up to my favourite stock in this sector a bit closer and to heck with diversification. If AIR suffer a downturn I think its more than likely THL will too.

noodles
30-08-2014, 09:51 AM
Even if THL make next year's confident prediction of $15m, (early days to make that call with a lot of water to go under the bridge for the 2015 year) that puts them on a PE of 9 for 2015.

Forward bookings give management confidence. I think $15mil will be conservative. In 2H14 they made $8.5 million.
NPAT after tax doesn't tell the true story. Have a look at cashflows. They had $44mill in Operating and investing cashflows in FY14. Market cap of $158mill.




Its a small company and much more illiquid than AIR and interestingly I noted virtually no top line revenue growth at all from THL so effectively profit growth is coming solely from Rob Campbell's magic in wringing more efficiency out of the business....and of course there's a natural limit to how far than can progress.

Top line growth is an issue (much like AIR). I think it is management priority to sort out the business first. They are still not satisfied with it's operating performance. They believe that that can wring a lot more out of the business yet. My guess is that acquisitions will be the next growth step.



A further reality nugget popped up when I noted tax losses are now extinguished and they're moving to a tax paying position this year which will obviously have quite an effect on profits in future years, whereas AIR are paying hefty taxes already.

THL paid full tax in FY14.



If AIR suffer a downturn I think its more than likely THL will too.
AIR is more exposed to the NZ economy. THL is more exposed to international tourism. Remember THL have operations in USA and Australia and most rentals in NZ are from international tourists. Which company is more exposed to Fuels prices and exchange rates? My hunch is AIR.


DISC: Holding AIR and THL

Beagle
30-08-2014, 10:10 AM
Forward bookings give management confidence. I think $15mil will be conservative. In 2H14 they made $8.5 million.
NPAT after tax doesn't tell the true story. Have a look at cashflows. They had $44mill in Operating and investing cashflows in FY14. Market cap of $158mill.Yes they sound confident of their forecast. High cash flows are distorted by fleet rationalisation.

Top line growth is an issue (much like AIR). I think it is management priority to sort out the business first. They are still not satisfied with it's operating performance. They believe that that can wring a lot more out of the business yet. My guess is that acquisitions will be the next growth step.Brokers are expecting top line growth of 5% for AIR

THL paid full tax in FY14.
What's this then ?, extract from annual announcement

The final dividend of 6 cps will be partially imputed (up to 50%). The
company has been in a tax loss position in New Zealand and will resume a cash
tax paying position in New Zealand in FY15.



AIR is more exposed to the NZ economy. THL is more exposed to international tourism. Remember THL have operations in USA and Australia and most rentals in NZ are from international tourists. Which company is more exposed to Fuels prices and exchange rates? My hunch is AIR.
A high exchange rate makes N.Z. less attractive to visit. AIR are well hedged on fuel prices.


DISC: Holding AIR and THL

If they were paying full taxes this year why isn't the final divvy fully imputed like AIR's final and special are ?

winner69
30-08-2014, 01:48 PM
If they were paying full taxes this year why isn't the final divvy fully imputed like AIR's final and special are ?

Don't imputation credits only apply to earnings generated in NZ?

At EBIT level 50% earnings came from US and Australia

Beagle
30-08-2014, 04:06 PM
My understanding is that THL as a N.Z. resident company is liable for world-wide income in N.Z. with any tax paid in subsidiaries overseas in tax treaty countries like USA and Australia being allowable as a credit to offset N.Z. tax. There is a section in the N.Z. imputation return that allows a credit for FDP credits.

I would have thought "The company has been in a tax loss position in New Zealand and will resume a cash tax paying position in New Zealand in FY15" is self explanatory.

Perhaps what they're suggesting is in fact the opposite of your line of thinking W69. i.e. they are in a tax paying position with one or more of their subsidiaries overseas, (but not in N.Z. as stated in their annual result) and they are able to attach a 50% imputation credit because approx. 50% of their earnings are from overseas where they've had to pay tax. That tax appears to have been able to flow through to their imputation account under the foreign dividend payment scheme. That or they had some imputation credits left over from years gone by.
Anyway...this is something for someone who has skin in the game to get their teeth into. I like fully imputed dividends, especially big special ones :)
Distribution of earnings to shareholders with only partial imputation credits is a highly questionable way to optimise shareholder value in my opinion. The directors then go on to pay for commissioned research. My Beagle nose detects something smells a little bit "carefully orchestrated".

noodles
30-08-2014, 04:46 PM
In 2014 they actually paid more tax than they should have (see note.9)
Actual:7,047
Theoretical:6,014

So why no fully franked dividend? It is mentioned at the interim...
"As a result we have the confidence to provide a dividend pay-out ratio at or around NPAT
in 2014. Whilst this doesn’t reflect a change
in dividend policy for the company the
current conditions warrant this pay-out.
The April 2014 dividend utilises the
remaining imputation credits. The tax
losses currently held in New Zealand are
expected to be utilised in full during FY15."

If you read the full report, it is quite confusing. What is clear is that there are no imputation credits left and tax credit of $3.2mill

So I guess that is the reason why the dividend is partially imputed.

Please don't question me on this as I'm at the limit of my accounting abilities:)

winner69
30-08-2014, 05:08 PM
My understanding is that THL as a N.Z. resident company is liable for world-wide income in N.Z. with any tax paid in subsidiaries overseas in tax treaty countries like USA and Australia being allowable as a credit to offset N.Z. tax. There is a section in the N.Z. imputation return that allows a credit for FDP credits.

I would have thought "The company has been in a tax loss position in New Zealand and will resume a cash tax paying position in New Zealand in FY15" is self explanatory.

Perhaps what they're suggesting is in fact the opposite of your line of thinking W69. i.e. they are in a tax paying position with one or more of their subsidiaries overseas, (but not in N.Z. as stated in their annual result) and they are able to attach a 50% imputation credit because approx. 50% of their earnings are from overseas where they've had to pay tax. That tax appears to have been able to flow through to their imputation account under the foreign dividend payment scheme. That or they had some imputation credits left over from years gone by.
Anyway...this is something for someone who has skin in the game to get their teeth into. I like fully imputed dividends, especially big special ones :)
Distribution of earnings to shareholders with only partial imputation credits is a highly questionable way to optimise shareholder value in my opinion. The directors then go on to pay for commissioned research. My Beagle nose detects something smells a little bit "carefully orchestrated".


You can see why corporations have a Tax Function employment several/many highly paid people who probably get consultants in as well.

The Notes to the accounts not very clear are they.

Nuplex don't apply much if any imputation credits as they generate stuff all profits in NZ and they are a NZ tax resident company. FBU on the other hand manage a fully imputed divie for NZers

Agree with Edison report being a bit fishy .....wonder the reason

Beagle
30-08-2014, 05:32 PM
Agreed Gents, it is a bit confusing. Its probably to do with the timing of payment of tax, (a company can provide for tax in their accounts but if it doesn't get a credit in its Imputation credit account until its actually paid). As there's penalties if one's ICA account goes into debit, (i.e. you attach imputation credits to dividends paid before paying the tax itself), that's something they'd want to avoid.
Still...paying partially imputed dividends doesn't make sense to me in terms of optimising shareholder value especially seeing as they've acknowledged they're moving to a full tax paying position next year, go figure ? A conspiracy theorist / overly cynical bloodhound might gather the impression they're trying to create the impression that THL is a top dividend payer on a sustainable basis.

W69 - Commissioning that research couldn't possibly have something to do with Rob Campbell buying in a stake earlier in the year, no we can't have that, Directors pushing their own wheelbarrows.
That...and the confidence exuded about next year's result just looks a fraction too over the top and was just excessive enough to give me a small but sadly inconclusive reading on my pump and dump meter :) I think I prefer AIR's approach where they exude confidence without going too far and putting a number on it, (they have plenty of forward bookings too).

percy
31-08-2014, 09:28 AM
There is an article in today's Sunday Star Times headed "Tracing THL's 'soaring arc' which I found interesting.page D11.
Very much Rob Campbell's "focus on return on funds employed."

Balance
31-08-2014, 10:44 AM
There is an article in today's Sunday Star Times headed "Tracing THL's 'soaring arc' which I found interesting.page D11.
Very much Rob Campbell's "focus on return on funds employed."

Shows the huge difference a good BOD and Chairman can make to a business - RBD being another good example.

At the heart of it all is the fact that there are directors and executives well past their used by dates but who stubbornly hang on even when it is clear to all that it's time for them to go.

Remember Bill Falconer? RBD, HBY, Tower etc.

Keith Smith is the one now to avoid - THL is now performing under Rob Campbell. Keith's presence in the Warehouse is why I avoid that stock - tired old faces with no new ideas.

golden city
04-09-2014, 10:31 PM
looking solid.., will be another push upper trend after AGM

golden city
05-09-2014, 06:49 PM
New Zealand set for tourist boom

Last updated 13:20 05/09/2014


The number of tourists visiting New Zealand is likely to rise strongly until at least 2020, the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment has forecast.

It said the global economy appeared to be recovering from the worst of the global financial crisis and it estimated annual spending by foreign tourists would increase by a quarter to hit $8.3 billion by 2020.

The prediction was based on modelling past data, current trends and the "best available forecasts of international factors", but was not "cast in stone" and was "subject to the global economic situation", spokesman Michael Bird said.

>Share this story on Facebook

Tourism New Zealand chief executive Kevin Bowler said the forecast growth followed a "very successful two years" for the sector, and tourism operators would take away the message that now was likely to be a good time to invest in their businesses.

"International visitor spend in New Zealand lifted 11 per cent in the 12 months to the end June 2014," he said.

"We are well on the way towards achieving the Tourism 2025 aspirational target of $41b total tourism revenue by 2025."

The 2025 target includes spending by international and domestic tourists.

Bird said there would be "reliable growth" in arrivals and spending by tourists from North America and Germany.

"China and Australia will remain key markets in the coming years, with arrivals from these two countries projected to make up 80 per cent of visitors by 2020," he said.

The ministry forecast the number of international tourists visiting New Zealand would rise from 2.8 million this year to 3.6 million in 2020, but their average spending would decrease from $2462 to $2356.

golden city
25-09-2014, 02:15 PM
THL share price is going to a new high soon., once break through 1.44

Hawkeye
01-10-2014, 01:51 PM
Crumbs golden city, you must be a very happy chappy! $1.45 today

Disc : holding (though i considered selling at $0.77)

golden city
01-10-2014, 10:33 PM
very happy in deep.., targeting at least 1.65 in short term..., 2 dollar in medium term

golden city
02-10-2014, 02:30 PM
looks so good..., more to come

golden city
05-10-2014, 10:52 PM
will be another good start next week

golden city
07-10-2014, 10:42 PM
some good volume going on..., something is happening.., an is a good happening indication

troyvdh
07-10-2014, 11:56 PM
Dear golden mate....Currently its great. What happens tomorrow if NZ has a "foot and mouth" outbreak.....another huge earthquake............i.e. no tourism....no nothing....have you given thought to how much you want to make ???....be careful mate...cheers troy....

golden city
08-10-2014, 10:52 PM
everything has it's tomorrow.., but we can't just worrying too much on tomorrow..and forgot we still have to eat and go ****ing today..my man.., of course i have my target set..., and risk protection in place., it is all part of the game

golden city
08-10-2014, 10:54 PM
but at current level.., it is not in risk yet.., maybe cross 2 dollar mark will see

forest
09-10-2014, 08:04 AM
[QUOTE=golden city;510491]but at current level.., it is not in risk yet.., maybe cross 2 dollar mark will see

[https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/201720.pdf

Lease
09-10-2014, 10:36 AM
[QUOTE=golden city;510491]but at current level.., it is not in risk yet.., maybe cross 2 dollar mark will see

[https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/201720.pdf

Only 10,000, it's just like a drop of water. I wish he can increase by 1m shares.

Beagle
09-10-2014, 10:46 AM
Dear golden mate....Currently its great. What happens tomorrow if NZ has a "foot and mouth" outbreak.....another huge earthquake............i.e. no tourism....no nothing....have you given thought to how much you want to make ???....be careful mate...cheers troy....

Agree 100%. The vast majority of business is tourism which is non essential travel. Its all very well to be holding good level's of forward bookings for the 2015 summer season but what if Ebola spreads at an alarming rate, how many of those non-essential bookings will actually be honoured and what about people's propensity to avoid unnecessary travel next year and after that if Ebola spreads widely.
Pays to have a widely diversified portfolio in my opinion.

golden city
09-10-2014, 06:32 PM
there is always good and bad things happening.., beside the ebola.. i am also seeking recovery of american and euro economies,also a big potential market which if you are not chinese.., you never know the underlining potential of it.., it is huge.., the living standard and spending power has changed hugely.., which i just came back from china.., traveling and holidaying is part of there essentail life those days.

golden city
09-10-2014, 06:34 PM
i am thinking lots chinese companies are interested of even taking over THL one day

bunter
09-10-2014, 10:13 PM
Worth 3.23 by my model, FWIW - no allowance for the poor liquidity and general riskiness of the business - or the fall in exchange rate.

Isn't that good for thl? Very good?

1)Tend to increase the number of NZ tourists - eventually.
2) Make US (and less so, AUD) earnings worth more in NZD terms - immediately.

golden city
09-10-2014, 11:11 PM
how you work out the number of $3.23.., it is a bold prediction

golden city
09-10-2014, 11:13 PM
i am more thinking of forward pe of 15.., which $2 to $2.50 is more reasonable next year

golden city
09-10-2014, 11:24 PM
hobbit december release will bring another high volume of tourist comming into nz from usa and asia

bunter
10-10-2014, 12:19 AM
Estimate total dividends over the next 10 years, after tax, in today's dollars, using a discount rate of 5%.

If that figure is 50% of the current share price, then the share is 'fairly valued'.

It's very rough and no good for shares that pay low or no dividends - like Apple was.

golden city
27-10-2014, 10:12 PM
nice dividend payout..

Balance
28-10-2014, 12:03 PM
nice dividend payout..


Sp going back up steadily to recover dividend paid.

golden city
28-10-2014, 01:06 PM
it is cracking up to a new high now..

Balance
29-10-2014, 09:27 AM
it is cracking up to a new high now..

Good to see Chairman adding to his shareholding.

golden city
29-10-2014, 10:35 AM
it means alot..., no people knows inside the company better than him.., so by his adding.., it is a safety of margin gap still exist

Arbroath
29-10-2014, 04:43 PM
i am more thinking of forward pe of 15.., which $2 to $2.50 is more reasonable next year

I think a forward PE of 12 for 2015 is appropriate which gives a value of about $1.75-1.80 and if they back it up again with NPAT getting near $20m in FY16 then something over $2.00 is warranted. I hold and will do so until at least $2.30-2.50 is realised.

golden city
29-10-2014, 10:06 PM
happy holding as long as steady profit growth

golden city
04-11-2014, 09:20 PM
looks like it will cross $1.69 after agm

golden city
06-11-2014, 09:56 PM
another 5 years high., well and truely on it's way

golden city
24-11-2014, 09:26 PM
nice breakout..,will be another high tomorrow

golden city
25-11-2014, 09:24 PM
tomorrow is the real deal.., let's see the record high into the 2 dollar mark soon

glennj
26-11-2014, 07:15 AM
It's going well. Share price up 13.6% so far this month.
Hope you've got heaps "golden city"!

winner69
26-11-2014, 07:27 AM
It's going well. Share price up 13.6% so far this month.
Hope you've got heaps "golden city"!

You'll get there soon

Chaowee88
26-11-2014, 03:33 PM
You'll get there soon

THL is such a great turnaround story. I remember when I first started investing it was around 55 - 60 cents and in some serious trouble. It has done a remarkable effort to come to today and it looks like it still has some legs to go up more.

golden city
26-11-2014, 04:35 PM
i was in the agm today.., i am so glad with the performance..with another upgrade to 16m profits.., i am expecting it to go over 2.30 to even 3 dollar some stage next year.., it is way over my expectation..when i first invested in it at around 60c..., was expecting to sell it before 2 dollars..but now will even consider buying more....

Balance
26-11-2014, 06:35 PM
i was in the agm today.., i am so glad with the performance..with another upgrade to 16m profits.., i am expecting it to go over 2.30 to even 3 dollar some stage next year.., it is way over my expectation..when i first invested in it at around 60c..., was expecting to sell it before 2 dollars..but now will even consider buying more....

Look at RBD as it turned around - from 65c to 85c to $1.20 to $1.80 to $2.40 to $3.00 to $3.71.

Run with a great story and bail out of the lousy ones.

golden city
26-11-2014, 09:16 PM
i was in rbd few year ago ..was in 60c..sold it at 2.40...looks back....it is like thl

glennj
27-11-2014, 08:34 AM
I've dabbled in recovery type stocks a bit over the years with some success. (results show I'm better at judging them than tech stocks)
Currently held RBD was picked up a while back and has gone very well! CAV, PGW & THL are works in progress with CAV being a bit of a problem child at the moment. Nearly bailed out of this one but decided to hang in there even after reading the recent info.
It's nice that THL appears to be on the right track. Closed yesterday at $1.75 so is now up 19% this month.

golden city
27-11-2014, 01:53 PM
it will consolidated for a while ...after feb..will be another cracker.., profit upgraded.., i am looking at the whole year of 18 million profit instead of 16m

Balance
02-12-2014, 11:33 AM
it will consolidated for a while ...after feb..will be another cracker.., profit upgraded.., i am looking at the whole year of 18 million profit instead of 16m

Will make your day.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/258398

golden city
02-12-2014, 02:08 PM
band on...i like it

Arbroath
02-12-2014, 03:43 PM
Hard to believe that both DPC and THL are valued today at $189m each - I know which business I'd rather own...

golden city
02-12-2014, 04:13 PM
i have a funny idea.., dpc should take over thl haha..., because they can finance thl and sell their second hand motorhomes throught turner auction., they can keep all the motorhome insurane too...

golden city
02-12-2014, 04:14 PM
it sounds a lot of synergies

golden city
02-12-2014, 04:14 PM
a merger sounds ok.. both are recovery mode

sb9
18-12-2014, 03:17 PM
https://nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/259118

Another feather to their cap, quite a nice one too...

golden city
18-12-2014, 04:58 PM
still believe will upgrade to 18m for the year

golden city
18-12-2014, 05:26 PM
2 dollar a share is immient

sb9
18-12-2014, 05:34 PM
Yep, looking pretty ominous at the moment. Surprised not many people onto it, must be the holiday season. Surely, they'll be more positive momentum in the days ahead, may be beyond $2 even :)

golden city
18-12-2014, 09:43 PM
yes it is just the start of the journey.., more and more to come., with the drop of the nzd.., and release of the last hobbits .., lower oil price., it is all add up to the up trend

golden city
18-12-2014, 09:44 PM
pe still lower. .., share could up to 2.70 ..next year

sb9
19-12-2014, 10:51 AM
Close to $1.80 already, may get to that $2 mark by X'mas....:t_up:

silverblizzard888
19-12-2014, 11:25 AM
Thats a lot of confidence to suggest the NPAT will be "at least" 17 million, very good sign in my opinion. Based on MCAP of 200 million thats a good 8.5%, given the market will realise at some stage and bring it down to about 5% then yeah $2.50 is very realistic by Feb when the half year report comes out. Considering it could be higher then $2.50 will be conservative assuming they at least get NPAT 17 million.

golden city
19-12-2014, 12:30 PM
it is going to be a very nice christmas and new year.., record visitor number just came out., will be moe surprise comming in the half year release

troyvdh
19-12-2014, 07:05 PM
Dear golden City...again well done....just remember that some of us have ridden this horse before (I sold a few near $6 from 45 cents)...honestly enjoy the moment and well done for your courage....Hopefully you get to keep some of the stuff...and even better spread some of the stuff around.....cheers troy.

golden city
29-12-2014, 10:55 PM
another year ..looking for a fresh start

golden city
29-12-2014, 10:56 PM
will busted 2 dollar mark on end of feb.. after profit annoucement

macduffy
30-12-2014, 12:26 PM
Dear golden City...again well done....just remember that some of us have ridden this horse before (I sold a few near $6 from 45 cents)...honestly enjoy the moment and well done for your courage....Hopefully you get to keep some of the stuff...and even better spread some of the stuff around.....cheers troy.

Yes, the SP's not showing any signs yet, but the strong NZD may become a concern again as the year unfolds. As you note, troy, its happened before.

golden city
12-01-2015, 10:18 PM
good start for the new year.., another new high.., should break 1.91..soon..than testing 2 dollar mark

troyvdh
12-01-2015, 10:32 PM
gee gc you are somewhat boring...good on you....cheers

silverblizzard888
12-01-2015, 11:31 PM
good start for the new year.., another new high.., should break 1.91..soon..than testing 2 dollar mark

Definitely with you on this! The selling depth is being cleared and should be in the $2 territory soon. Lots of positives going for THL, but mind you the high dollar still plays heavy on my mind.

sb9
23-01-2015, 02:21 PM
Any clues anyone re the weakness in the sp today??

dingoNZ
23-01-2015, 02:56 PM
Someone came on the offer with 45k shares and rattled the price down

golden city
23-01-2015, 11:07 PM
for profit taking ..., it is in the year high.., a few cents down is normal

golden city
23-01-2015, 11:07 PM
unstable euro econnomy will have some effects too

golden city
29-01-2015, 10:36 PM
lower nzd is another positive sign

sb9
10-02-2015, 02:21 PM
Its been unusually past few weeks with price hovering around the $1.80 mark. And no trades as yet today, thought with lower NZD and expected good result the sp would've been close to $2 mark now...

golden city
10-02-2015, 04:32 PM
will see on the 25th.., everybody is waiting to see the real picture i think.., it will be cross 2 dollar mark..just matter of timming here

silverblizzard888
10-02-2015, 10:07 PM
Don't forget the boost its gonna get from the tourist coming to see the Cricket World Cup!

Toulouse - Luzern
11-02-2015, 08:36 AM
Don't forget the boost its gonna get from the tourist coming to see the Cricket World Cup!

One thing I took into account when choosing it in the share contest.

There were not many camper vans in the central Wellington Harbourside camper van site for the Sevens.

dingoNZ
11-02-2015, 08:38 AM
One thing I took into account when choosing it in the share contest.

There were not many camper vans in the central Wellington Harbourside camper van site for the Sevens.

There weren't also a hell of a lot of people at the Sevens, was a bit of a 'dud' this year

golden city
16-02-2015, 01:29 PM
next week will see up trend resume again., big announcement comming

Toulouse - Luzern
17-02-2015, 10:25 AM
next week will see up trend resume again., big announcement comming


Yes.

Now at 185.

However quote is 178 / 185

golden city
17-02-2015, 01:06 PM
it is bursting soon

sb9
17-02-2015, 01:50 PM
Yep ready to take off, into the 4th gear now..:t_up:

golden city
19-02-2015, 10:42 PM
few more days to kick in tyres

sb9
20-02-2015, 03:38 PM
No trades yet today...last chance to see prices in $1.80s I'm guessing with results due out on web 25th....

golden city
20-02-2015, 09:53 PM
can't wait on wed..,more than happy to just get the dividends

benjitara
23-02-2015, 08:22 PM
Never seen it so busy at chch thl. Hope it can be transferred into the income statement (I'm aware that the current trading environment/ revenue will lag behind the upcoming result)

silverblizzard888
23-02-2015, 09:23 PM
The upcoming statements will show a glimpse of what they will earn, usually its the second half where the serious revenue and profits come in, so I'm actually more interested in what they have to say about their forecast for the second half. The Cricket World Cup has definitely brought a good crowd of tourist, its too the point you just notice it in the hotels, the rental cars that are on the road and food places getting busier than usual. It all will translate nicely in NZ, but don't forget they have to do well in Aus and USA since they operate their too.

golden city
23-02-2015, 09:49 PM
very confident

sb9
24-02-2015, 11:03 AM
Just wait another 22hrs..all will be revealed :t_up:

golden city
24-02-2015, 11:04 AM
when you look it the share price as reaction indication.., it all showns good sign

silverblizzard888
24-02-2015, 10:20 PM
Nice flying THL did today, tomorrow will be an interesting day! Lets hope the good kind!

benjitara
25-02-2015, 12:01 PM
Sound result. Turning into a nice yield stock too. I predict a robust full year that surpasses their predictions by some margin.

sb9
25-02-2015, 01:22 PM
Solid result, great divvy and future prospects look promising, very happy holder :t_up:

golden city
25-02-2015, 10:42 PM
all goes well.., a happy holder.., great dividends.., hard to believe share price so static

golden city
09-03-2015, 02:16 PM
somehow the share price is going backward.., cant understand

noodles
09-03-2015, 02:33 PM
somehow the share price is going backward.., cant understand
Shareholders have become conditioned to expect upgrades from THL. Where was the upgrade at the half year:)

Beagle
09-03-2015, 03:08 PM
Shareholders have become conditioned to expect upgrades from THL. Where was the upgrade at the half year:)

Yep that's probably it in a nutshell mate.

Master98
09-03-2015, 03:09 PM
somehow the share price is going backward.., cant understand

shares issued from 2012 merge just distributed which are created selling pressure i think.

macduffy
09-03-2015, 03:13 PM
Shareholders have become conditioned to expect upgrades from THL. Where was the upgrade at the half year:)

So, it's nothing to do with recent negative publicity about the incidence of tourist crashes in rental vehicles? I wondered when this would get an airing in this thread.

noodles
09-03-2015, 03:24 PM
shares issued from 2012 merge just distributed which are created selling pressure i think.
Yes good point, Kay Howe(director and previously SSH) recently sold some that she was issued in Oct 2012.

sb9
09-03-2015, 03:25 PM
somehow the share price is going backward.., cant understand

Yep, with you on this one..tht $2 was easily achieved on the back good result and divvy....never mind happy to hold

golden city
09-03-2015, 04:40 PM
yes..sticking to the fundamentals

Master98
09-03-2015, 05:46 PM
do hope thl can declare final fully imputed dividend.

sb9
11-03-2015, 01:29 PM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11415497

This should encourage company earnings further...

sb9
19-03-2015, 04:56 PM
https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/262076

golden city
19-03-2015, 11:09 PM
sounds good.

golden city
19-03-2015, 11:43 PM
wonder if the acqusittion is profit accrue

Master98
24-03-2015, 11:19 AM
thl chairman on market buy 87000@$1.79 per share, definitely a good sign.

golden city
24-03-2015, 01:29 PM
very good indeep.., indicating could be another upgrade comming for full year result

Master98
24-03-2015, 02:22 PM
very good indeep.., indicating could be another upgrade comming for full year result

tourism is booming in nz which thl will at least enjoy this situation for another two years, this year earnings will not less than 18m i think.

golden city
24-03-2015, 06:27 PM
yes..i guessed 18m at least..

Arbroath
24-03-2015, 09:07 PM
What will take THL over the $2 mark is an expectation that 2016 earnings can be $20m+. I think something around $18m is factored in here for 2015.

sb9
25-03-2015, 04:29 PM
thl chairman on market buy 87000@$1.79 per share, definitely a good sign.

Yeah, not a bad endorsement from someone at the top of company.. isn't it.

noodles
25-03-2015, 06:30 PM
Yeah, not a bad endorsement from someone at the top of company.. isn't it.
Rob Campbell was a buyer around this time last year. The price at the time was about $1.10. I think it shows there is a lot more petrol in the tank.

golden city
25-03-2015, 09:28 PM
i think so too., i think thl has just start the engine...

noodles
26-03-2015, 10:50 AM
New Edison Research Out. They have raised the FY15 dividend
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/tourism-holdings2

sb9
26-03-2015, 10:59 AM
New Edison Research Out. They have raised the FY15 dividend
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/tourism-holdings2

:t_up:, excellent prospects ahead for this puppy in times to come...

noodles
26-03-2015, 11:01 AM
New Edison Research Out. They have raised the FY15 dividend
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/tourism-holdings2
That puts THL on a gross dividend yield of 9.6% (50% imputation)

golden city
26-03-2015, 09:40 PM
the new website looks more of to the core

sb9
10-04-2015, 01:18 PM
Any ideas as to current weakness in sp??

sammiesmiles
10-04-2015, 01:20 PM
It looks odds, since the senior management redeemed the shares, the number of bidders are reduced significantly.... Anyone knows why?

sb9
10-04-2015, 01:40 PM
It looks odds, since the senior management redeemed the shares, the number of bidders are reduced significantly.... Anyone knows why?

As far as I know, the story hasn't changed in terms of earnings and outlook...

noodles
10-04-2015, 01:46 PM
As far as I know, the story hasn't changed in terms of earnings and outlook...

It went ex-div last week. Given Rob Campbell is a recent buyer, I'm pretty confident the earnings and outlook are on track.

sb9
10-04-2015, 01:55 PM
It went ex-div last week. Given Rob Campbell is a recent buyer, I'm pretty confident the earnings and outlook are on track.

It went ex-div this Tuesday.

Well, if nothing has changed and sp weakens further, might top up few more...

Master98
10-04-2015, 01:56 PM
maybe related to high nz dollar against oz dollar, or distributed shares from merger still selling.

sb9
10-04-2015, 02:08 PM
maybe related to high nz dollar against oz dollar, or distributed shares from merger still selling.

Well NZD has been in mid to high 90s for most of this year, so that's not big factor in my opinion.

Only consolation is that volume is not large..meaning some retail investor cashing up.

golden city
10-04-2015, 03:31 PM
i think the market is prety quiet at the moment., so after ex dividends.. some investor lost patients ,,,

macduffy
10-04-2015, 04:52 PM
So, it's still got nothing to do with the negative publicity around self-driven tourists and road accidents?

golden city
10-04-2015, 05:07 PM
i was thinking about that..but shouldn't be any damage to profit

Master98
10-04-2015, 05:15 PM
lol, the thl board will be forced to announce another earning upgrade:D

golden city
10-04-2015, 05:18 PM
hope so haha

Beagle
10-04-2015, 05:29 PM
Air N.Z. down too after divvy, sentiment leading into the quieter time of the year in terms of tourism and general market sentiment isn't all that great at the moment. Important to keep one's eye on the longer game. THL and AIR have had really good gains in the last year so some consolidation isn't to be unexpected. Disc Hold AIR (not THL).

noodles
10-04-2015, 06:20 PM
Air N.Z. down too after divvy, sentiment leading into the quieter time of the year in terms of tourism and general market sentiment isn't all that great at the moment. Important to keep one's eye on the longer game. THL and AIR have had really good gains in the last year so some consolidation isn't to be unexpected. Disc Hold AIR (not THL).

Roger. Dividend alert! With the recent price drop, the gross yield is now 10.5%

golden city
10-04-2015, 09:36 PM
after tuesday ..price will recover.., people getting the dividends will reinvest

golden city
16-04-2015, 11:35 AM
Any one received the dividends yet?

sb9
16-04-2015, 11:43 AM
Not me yet, mine will be in the snail mail in the form of cheque. Forgot to update my bank details.

golden city
16-04-2015, 12:28 PM
should be today..but didnt see anything in acc

sb9
16-04-2015, 07:44 PM
Can confirm I got my divvy in the bank.

Looking at sp, if it goes lower might get more, div yield is too good to miss 👍

golden city
16-04-2015, 08:51 PM
very nice dividend in pocket

sb9
17-04-2015, 05:43 PM
There is an interview posting on NZX main page with CEO Grant Webster, wherein he outlines company's future focus and direction. Good one to watch.

noodles
17-04-2015, 08:42 PM
There is an interview posting on NZX main page with CEO Grant Webster, wherein he outlines company's future focus and direction. Good one to watch.
Thanks. Well worth a listen.

golden city
17-04-2015, 09:28 PM
sounds good..still looking to grow the dividends

golden city
24-04-2015, 11:50 AM
what happen to the share price?looks going deep

Master98
24-04-2015, 11:53 AM
what happen to the share price?looks going deep
must have something you dont know.

golden city
24-04-2015, 11:56 AM
look it the volume is very low....,i am guessing milford selling down

sb9
24-04-2015, 12:07 PM
look it the volume is very low....,i am guessing milford selling down

Don't know where you're looking gc, volume is fairly decent 209k so far, dropped to 161 as I speak, ouch...:scared:

Master98
24-04-2015, 05:14 PM
must a few sellers here want to cash the profits even through tourism is booming here.
March arrivals wrap up a stellar summer
http://www.tourismnewzealand.com/tourism-news-insights/media-releases/latest-releases/2015/04/march-arrivals-wrap-up-a-stellar-summer/

golden city
24-04-2015, 07:38 PM
i think so.., just not sure how big the seller is

golden city
24-04-2015, 09:51 PM
hopefully found support on monday

golden city
29-04-2015, 10:06 PM
big seller seem to be finished offloading

sammiesmiles
30-04-2015, 08:32 AM
https://nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/263677

With recent trading results in New Zealand and the USA in particular, thl has upgraded the FY15 year-end forecast Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) from “at least $17M”, released in December 2014, to between $19.5M and $20.0M.


Hopefully this piece of news helps to boost the share price.

noodles
30-04-2015, 08:46 AM
Any ideas what the strategic review may bring?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/263676

dingoNZ
30-04-2015, 08:49 AM
some sort of share split to increase liquidity?

Arbroath
30-04-2015, 09:04 AM
Combined with the aggressive and specific profit upgrade my gut instinct is the Board are concerned of an opportunistic approach to acquire them, maybe from private equity. Specific profit upgrade, as opposed to previous more general statements (although accept this could just be because we are nearing the end of the 12 mth period and they have more clarity) and the engagement of FNZ suggests to me there is more to this and they are concerned about being picked off at a current (FY15) PE of 9 which could be 7-8 by end of FY16.

Definitely a cheap company in a market pricing a lot of companies at 12-18 times earnings!


Any ideas what the strategic review may bring?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/263676

noodles
30-04-2015, 09:11 AM
Combined with the aggressive and specific profit upgrade my gut instinct is the Board are concerned of an opportunistic approach to acquire them, maybe from private equity. Specific profit upgrade, as opposed to previous more general statements (although accept this could just be because we are nearing the end of the 12 mth period and they have more clarity) and the engagement of FNZ suggests to me there is more to this and they are concerned about being picked off at a current (FY15) PE of 9 which could be 7-8 by end of FY16.

Definitely a cheap company in a market pricing a lot of companies at 12-18 times earnings!
So you think a buy back or maybe a special dividend?

Arbroath
30-04-2015, 09:18 AM
computer playing tricks on me - can see my earlier post now...

A buy back more likely in my opinion but only guessing - the other issue they mention though is liquidity so a buy back will help one side of that equation but not long term liquidity
https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/263676[/QUOTE]

golden city
30-04-2015, 09:33 AM
certainly it is a possible takeover approach around this pe...,good future prospects

golden city
30-04-2015, 09:34 AM
this profit upgrade should be done in july rather than now in the past

golden city
30-04-2015, 09:35 AM
what happen if someone offer us 2 dollar now.., are we happy compare to current price?

golden city
30-04-2015, 09:36 AM
but it should really be a 3 dollar company

dingoNZ
30-04-2015, 09:38 AM
what happen if someone offer us 2 dollar now.., are we happy compare to current price?

not a chance, Edison valued it at $2 before the previous two upgrades... I wouldn't accept anything below $3. But happy to keep holding given the yield, even happy to buy more here :D

golden city
30-04-2015, 09:59 AM
hopeful the share prices soon cross 2

Arbroath
30-04-2015, 10:30 AM
I value them in a range of $2.35-2.55 using approx. earnings of $24m for FY16 and 11-12 multiple. I wouldn't accept less than $2.50 but I think the Board want to head off any approaches by getting the share price up to close the value gap.

QUOTE=dingoNZ;570157]not a chance, Edison valued it at $2 before the previous two upgrades... I wouldn't accept anything below $3. But happy to keep holding given the yield, even happy to buy more here :D[/QUOTE]

sb9
30-04-2015, 11:00 AM
Wow...what a difference a week can make. Was actually thinking of topping up more either today or tomorrow depending on which sp way moves. But, too late now...never mind still happy though :)

sammiesmiles
30-04-2015, 11:05 AM
ppl stop selling their shares:) below $2

sb9
30-04-2015, 11:10 AM
There is someone who is bit more restless to offload....

sb9
30-04-2015, 11:22 AM
There is one seller with light volume at 1.80, next stop 2.00 after that on very low qty on offer...lets see how the days pans out

sammiesmiles
30-04-2015, 11:38 AM
It looks like to overseas investors woke up and saw the share price, they have started to list their shares at $1.8x:cool:

golden city
30-04-2015, 01:20 PM
see if this can force to 2 dollar mark...if go over.., will end up 2.35 trend tells

golden city
30-04-2015, 01:25 PM
i was a bit worry last week that something bad will be announce..., but my heart tell me to withstand that.., so i bought another 50k of stock at 1.65.., comes out to be ok..god...

sb9
30-04-2015, 01:30 PM
i was a bit worry last week that something bad will be announce..., but my heart tell me to withstand that.., so i bought another 50k of stock at 1.65.., comes out to be ok..god...

Good on ya gc, you did what I was planning to do.

All qty gone at 1.80 now, 1.83 now the ask...

golden city
30-04-2015, 01:38 PM
i think this year will have another very good christmas haha

Master98
30-04-2015, 06:37 PM
i was a bit worry last week that something bad will be announce..., but my heart tell me to withstand that.., so i bought another 50k of stock at 1.65.., comes out to be ok..god...

i bought 3 lots add to my previous holding at $1.75, $1.65 and $1.61, intent to hold for yield.

golden city
30-04-2015, 09:42 PM
i forgot how many lots i bought.., starting from 45c..to 1.68

noodles
01-05-2015, 09:06 AM
A bit of commentary by Grant Webster on the Strategic Review - potential capital return. Given the lack of imputation credits, I think a buy back would be better.
http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/business/bus-mnr-20150501-0653-tourism_holdings_calls_for_strategic_review-048.mp3

sammiesmiles
01-05-2015, 09:29 AM
THL has a very low turnover on the share market. Any reason why? Because the holders do not want to sell the shares, or investors are not interested in THL?

dingoNZ
01-05-2015, 09:33 AM
THL has a very low turnover on the share market. Any reason why? Because the holders do not want to sell the shares, or investors are not interested in THL?


Milford and ACC hold over 25% of the company combined... Instos do hold, its just an illiquid stock much like most of the NZX outside the top 15

Master98
01-05-2015, 09:53 AM
off market 1.6m shares changed hand at $1.72.

sammiesmiles
01-05-2015, 10:18 AM
There might be a SSH announancement later...

sb9
01-05-2015, 10:58 AM
A bit of commentary by Grant Webster on the Strategic Review - potential capital return. Given the lack of imputation credits, I think a buy back would be better.
http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/business/bus-mnr-20150501-0653-tourism_holdings_calls_for_strategic_review-048.mp3

Grant and Board surely seem to be concerned about the liquidity of shares on the market.

dingoNZ
01-05-2015, 11:13 AM
Grant and Board surely seem to be concerned about the liquidity of shares on the market.


Well when 0.001% (100k) of shares on issue can reduce your market cap by 10% its pretty concerning..

golden city
01-05-2015, 12:00 PM
who will have this big patch of share to sell..., either accc.or milford or sterling

Master98
01-05-2015, 12:56 PM
who will have this big patch of share to sell..., either accc.or milford or sterling

shares from the merge distributed recently.

golden city
01-05-2015, 02:08 PM
looks needing another good news to break the 2 dollar mark..mr campbell

Master98
01-05-2015, 02:29 PM
looks needing another good news to break the 2 dollar mark..mr campbell

be patient GC for this illiquid stock, already good enough for me.

sb9
01-05-2015, 02:36 PM
be patient GC for this illiquid stock, already good enough for me.

Yep, that's whole point behind engaging FNZC to look at their capital structure.

golden city
01-05-2015, 02:59 PM
i am patient enough.. sits there for almost two years now..

golden city
02-05-2015, 10:39 PM
wonder how strong is the jucy company financially...,wonder what will happen ..if thl merger with jucy

golden city
02-05-2015, 10:42 PM
Is JUST GO .a profitable company..in uk....., can't find any information regarding to the acquisition

golden city
05-05-2015, 06:42 PM
share price looks very solid at around 1.80 now..., looking for another step up

Master98
05-05-2015, 08:10 PM
share price looks very solid at around 1.80 now..., looking for another step up

From my point of view there is no reason to sell under $2.0, FY15 earnings upgraded to $19.5M-$20M thats 17.5 cps, full year dividend will be at least 15.5 cps( pay out ratio 85%-95%), thats gross dividend yield 10.3% at $1.8 and 9.3% at $2.0. next year earnings i guess will be 21cps. so you do the math what is the fair share price.

golden city
05-05-2015, 09:18 PM
looking for 2.50 fair value

sammiesmiles
06-05-2015, 10:57 AM
From my point of view there is no reason to sell under $2.0, FY15 earnings upgraded to $19.5M-$20M thats 17.5 cps, full year dividend will be at least 15.5 cps( pay out ratio 85%-95%), thats gross dividend yield 10.3% at $1.8 and 9.3% at $2.0. next year earnings i guess will be 21cps. so you do the math what is the fair share price.

Unfortunately, 11 investors think they should sell the shares below $2 so far. even sadly, very few investors are happy to buy the shares above $1.8...

Master98
06-05-2015, 11:11 AM
Unfortunately, 11 investors think they should sell the shares below $2 so far. even sadly, very few investors are happy to buy the shares above $1.8...

the 11 investors totally hold shares were less then 0.0044% of the company;)

sb9
06-05-2015, 05:26 PM
Does anyone know what's the deadline for First NZ capital structure proposal to be finalised??

sb9
13-05-2015, 05:19 PM
Topped more today at $1.76, divvy yield is too tempting to leave out with FY results due in couple of months along with the recent profit upgrade, lost count how many there were before.

golden city
13-05-2015, 09:26 PM
it does look very attractive.., don't know why people selling out..it should really be a 2 dollar now

golden city
14-05-2015, 10:43 AM
one interesting seller is put 30000 shares to sell each time at 1.76

Master98
14-05-2015, 11:14 AM
one interesting seller is put 30000 shares to sell each time at 1.76

if he(she) bought at 45c or even $1.1 and then sell at $1.76 thats quite good, isn't it?

golden city
14-05-2015, 03:38 PM
looks alive.., buyer are fetch backs

golden city
14-05-2015, 04:02 PM
seller offload it again.., looks like a big seller

golden city
14-05-2015, 04:08 PM
one big hero buyer is comming in ..see who wins

Master98
14-05-2015, 04:14 PM
suppose touch down from now on.

golden city
14-05-2015, 04:16 PM
looks like a good fight ..no win no lose

golden city
14-05-2015, 04:17 PM
could be a share buy back announcement comming

Master98
14-05-2015, 04:21 PM
or take over at $2.8

golden city
14-05-2015, 04:27 PM
yes..this buyer looks strong accumulate on market.., together with all a few big shareholder.., well not hard to takeover it..within a attractive price to the big shareholders

golden city
14-05-2015, 04:35 PM
guessing who will have that much shares to sell..

sb9
14-05-2015, 05:10 PM
Wow, big turnover day! Interesting to see what comes out in next few days, something's up, wonder what��

golden city
14-05-2015, 05:15 PM
to have something to happen at this upper price.., must be something good

golden city
15-05-2015, 12:10 PM
no news..no disclosure

sb9
15-05-2015, 12:16 PM
Yeah, guess wait and watch at the moment.

golden city
15-05-2015, 02:22 PM
the whole market is bit doom at the moment

sb9
15-05-2015, 04:44 PM
the whole market is bit doom at the moment

Looks like market making absolute mockery of profit upgrade at the moment.

golden city
18-05-2015, 12:03 PM
not sure when the capital structure review will finish.., should give webster a call to find out

sb9
18-05-2015, 12:16 PM
Yeah, good call GC...or may be someone here who deals with First NZ can check for us. Good solid support around 1.76-1.78 though at the moment.

golden city
18-05-2015, 12:23 PM
I just wondering who bought the two big parcel of shares.., almost 2million shares plus

sb9
18-05-2015, 12:33 PM
I just wondering who bought the two big parcel of shares.., almost 2million shares plus

Is that from today GC?, don't see the volume in trading depth at the moment.