THL - Tourism Holdings

[golden city]

since the upgrade announcement.. I have watch the volume and movement all the trading hours

[Master98]

China tourism tipped to soon outstrip Australia

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11450587

new zealand tourism will continue booming from chinese tourists.

[sb9]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/68627787/air-new-zealand-and-tourism-nz-ramp-up-tourism-promotion

And this should give some more boost too...

[golden city]

it all looks good.., beside the static share price

[golden city]

just want to see how the capital structure review can help

[sammiesmiles]

China tourism tipped to soon outstrip Australia

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11450587

new zealand tourism will continue booming from chinese tourists.

However, MOST of the visitors would not hire Carpervans.... We could only see the growth in the Waitomo businesses from the Chinese visitors. Well, most of the grouped chinese tours do not visit Waitomo caves anyway...

[benjitara]

However, MOST of the visitors would not hire Carpervans.... We could only see the growth in the Waitomo businesses from the Chinese visitors. Well, most of the grouped chinese tours do not visit Waitomo caves anyway...

You're correct in saying that MOST of these Chinese visitors will not hire campervans but as I've stated here before from being around this industry the numbers of Asian visitors hiring campervans has increased noticeably in the past 3 years or so and should continue to be targeted by THL.

[sammiesmiles]

You're correct in saying that MOST of these Chinese visitors will not hire campervans but as I've stated here before from being around this industry the numbers of Asian visitors hiring campervans has increased noticeably in the past 3 years or so and should continue to be targeted by THL.

Yes, i know THL has been doing campervan advertising on Chinese most popular social network sources Weibo.com and Wechat for years. I hope they can attract more Chinese visitors hiring campervans.

[golden city]

new generation chinese is going crazy for campervans as i have notices

[Master98]

new generation chinese is going crazy for campervans as i have notices

yes more and more young independent chinese tourists quite different from old days grouped chinese tours, they rent cars,campervans and 4-wheels cars for off-road driving.

[sb9]

Seems as though someone's got a stranglehold on sp around the 1.75 mark....

[golden city]

yes.not sure why

[sb9]

yes.not sure why

May be they know something we don't....GC, did you call Webster re the capital restructure plans...

[golden city]

yes I did..he reply ..saying work is under way.., he will announce the option when it is really

[sb9]

Thanks GC, any sort of indication around time wise, like few weeks or month or couple of months??

[golden city]

he said.., it is confidential.., once ready.which will announce it to market

[golden city]

market looks very tire..., not much backing..

[cheeky]

market looks very tire..., not much backing..

Could be waiting on outcome of restructure? Has been a little tired for awhile now

[sb9]

Yeah..the sp is in a bit of lull at the moment. May be more pain before gain...

[golden city]

when the pains arrived...normally indicated the news coming soon...

[golden city]

very small volume..looks to settle

[sb9]

Hmmm...looks to have gone back where it was before the announcement...

[benjitara]

THL has turned into a little bit of a longer-term hold for me now. I got in at a decent time and now have the company under-valued by around 10% with decent medium term prospects. Good dividends yield too.

[golden city]

I like it very much.., I accumulate since 45c.., the management looks very conservative on forecast now.., so.., I am confident they will do the right thing.., with the high dividends ., share price in short term volatile is no worries..,

[golden city]

you know they will come up with even better news soon

[Kirk]

Whats going to come out of the capital review? Seasoned offering, debt issue? GC from your memory can you recall anything like that been said in the past?

[sb9]

someone bought 1.1m shares..., at 1.70.....indicating...something happening soon

You beat me by few tics GC, was about to post the same....surely something is cooking, may be some news next week.

[Master98]

hopefully the overhang of distributed shares from merger of Hauraki Motor Homes is removed, and share price upwards from here now on.

[golden city]

all up almost 6million shares sold..this month..

[sb9]

That's just changed the course of trade, this could be it..i think the game changer, bring it on..

[golden city]

plus exchange gain.., could be another upgrade comming

[Master98]

thl share price ready to fire up
you should get rewarded as a loyalty thl share holder

[golden city]

something is going on.., shoot up fast than i expected

[Master98]

something is going on.., shoot up fast than i expected

keep quiet, do something else.

[sammiesmiles]

the turnover is still very low.... i am not expecting anything to happen in a short time...

[sb9]

Yeah true, still light volume though. Might be a broker recommendation that's driving this up I think.

Is that yours GC that's on offer at $2.50?

[benjitara]

Brand consolidation whispers

[sammiesmiles]

gc when you said this again their share price will reach 1.7 again:D

[golden city]

could well be.., haha..I am happy to just hold and taking the dividends haha

[sb9]

gc when you said this again their share price will reach 1.7 again:D

De javu.....

[golden city]

Just to let u guys know..just me that selling a bit to cover my new car ..still happy to hold

[sb9]

No news as yet....

[Master98]

No news as yet....

THL announced today: to increase thl liquidity larger thl share holders agree to sell down their holdings to retail investors at $1.75 per piece, in return thl board promised gross dividend yield will not less than 10%(at $1.75) in coming two years ends.

[sb9]

THL announced today: to increase thl liquidity larger thl share holders agree to sell down their holdings to retail investors at $1.75 per piece, in return thl board promised gross dividend yield will not less than 10%(at $1.75) in coming two years ends.

Thanks Master for that..where did that piece appear? Don't see anything on NZX...

[Master98]

Thanks Master for that..where did that piece appear? Don't see anything on NZX...

be patient, soon...

[golden city]

if that is the case.., that is not helping the share price

[golden city]

1.75 is not an attractiing price

[sammiesmiles]

where can we find such $1.75 announcement?

[golden city]

i don't think there is an announcement as such

[sb9]

In the meantime, someone decided to dump a decent chunk @ 1.75....

[golden city]

hopefully master not lier to me about the announcement ..

[sb9]

Well, good on ya GC....

[Master98]

hopefully master not lier to me about the announcement ..
lol,that's one option i suggested to the board.

[Master98]

haha...didn't mind.. master .just a joke..., I have starting to sell out from couple weeks ago

can i say it's you push thl share price down.

[silverblizzard888]

GC next time you decide to hype up a stock, you should think clearly what your future decision will be because someone could have listened to you and bought up at the higher end (when they didn't have to) and now your selling down, if you didn't have a legitimate reason, someone might think you are manipulating the market for your own gain (pushing the price up to get maximum selling gain). I know you still own a lot more, but if its not helpful in decision making for someone reading it, it can be harmful. Of course people should do their own research, but such ramping can caused rushed decisions. I know you get excited, but just understand if you write statements that hype up the stock and someone relies on the information you can cause harm especially if you act inconsistent to your statements/actions.

[troyvdh]

dear silver...good post...your comments assume that GC does has so many shares..he probably does...I have long campaigned that until the SM is considered a bone fide investment option...we will continue to invest in houses...so I suppose I agree with you totally ...many folk will continue to see the SM as the Wild West...GC is probably a fine chap indeed...but he aint being helpful...but then again why should he ???

[golden city]

I will have to careful not to speak too much from now on ..

[golden city]

sorry for the inconsistent.., but thinking can change every minutes..,

[golden city]

I didn't say thl is no good any more.., just that I found something more better those days

[golden city]

I do get excited over thl.., sometime.., maybe because I holding too long and too much

[silverblizzard888]

Oh yes of course opinions change and that is normal, I don't think of you as a bad person GC and I know you likely mean well, but that you might want to consider not being so excited and writing statements that influence decisions in such a way. Every statement you have written hypes up the stock and of course it'd work in your favour, but lets wait till something actually positive has happened and be a bit more realistic. A simple increase in trading volume does not mean something is coming, when they finally release that nice statement of a profit upgrade or acquisition then by all means parade to next day. I'm just trying to watch out for those who get caught up in the hype and may make a bad decision. I'm definitely with you GC that THL is a good stock and its a shame the market isn't recognising it. When that re-rating comes in I wish you the very best. =)

[benjitara]

Oh yes of course opinions change and that is normal, I don't think of you as a bad person GC and I know you likely mean well, but that you might want to consider not being so excited and writing statements that influence decisions in such a way. Every statement you have written hypes up the stock and of course it'd work in your favour, but lets wait till something actually positive has happened and be a bit more realistic. A simple increase in trading volume does not mean something is coming, when they finally release that nice statement of a profit upgrade or acquisition then by all means parade to next day. I'm just trying to watch out for those who get caught up in the hype and may make a bad decision. I'm definitely with you GC that THL is a good stock and its a shame the market isn't recognising it. When that re-rating comes in I wish you the very best. =)

Fundamentally I have this company 10-15% unvalued and I'm confident they can consolidate their gains for some time to come. I'm confident that we'll see a continuation of their fleet being streamlined which should improve their margins. The new Christchurch facility is well underway and should increase their performance. Very quiet at the moment as it's the slowest part of the season for these guys but I'd never seen it so busy over the peak as I have this year and remain optimistic about the stock in general.

[golden city]

it has be a long journey on thl.., couple years now....most early prediction I am guessing is on track.., just this 2 dollar mark still can't crack..., eventually it will be broken.

[silverblizzard888]

I do find sometimes information is available for people to value the company and it seems obvious that it has good value, but everyones playing chicken and not willing to pay a high price until closer to reporting date or they take it for granted and think they will time the market. THL generally is a quiet stock until around reporting date, so be patient and I agree with benjitara that this year looks rather busy. $1.80 appears be a quite a huge resistance, if we can successful pass that then GC I think we'll see more than $2 being cracked. REMEMBER TIME AND PATIENCE IS YOUR FRIEND! Go play with it and have some fun! =D

[minimoke]

GC next time you decide to hype up a stock, you should think clearly what your future decision will be because someone could have listened to you and bought up at the higher end (when they didn't have to) and now your selling down, if you didn't have a legitimate reason, someone might think you are manipulating the market for your own gain (pushing the price up to get maximum selling gain). I know you still own a lot more, but if its not helpful in decision making for someone reading it, it can be harmful. Of course people should do their own research, but such ramping can caused rushed decisions. I know you get excited, but just understand if you write statements that hype up the stock and someone relies on the information you can cause harm especially if you act inconsistent to your statements/actions.
Well, what a load of boolocks. Seriously? People come to this thread and read an excited statement or two from an anonymous poster (who reckons he holds 1/2 m THL shares - with no verification) and rush off and make investment decisions? I know such dim witted people are around and have no sympathy if they loose their loot. I'm not surprised teh Oxford English Dictionary has had to change its definition of "gullible".

And in the meantime Master98 seems to be able to get away with his outrageous post at 798 pretending to be an "announcement". Go figure.

[minimoke]

REMEMBER TIME AND PATIENCE IS YOUR FRIEND! And theres another great piece of investment advice - and in capitals so it must be true. Give me strength!

[sb9]

Decent turnover today....block of 200k traded through at $1.77...

[golden city]

it has been happening this month.., someone is accumulating

[sb9]

My guess is nothing is going to be announced this month. They might bundle all together with FY results.

[sb9]

There you go GC, another 325K trade gone thro' @$1.77...

[golden city]

i think news will be together with full year report too

[golden city]

at the mean time.., doing very good with nzr

[golden city]

it is going to be another thl story

[sb9]

Wait there's more, another 275K....

[golden city]

over million already

[sb9]

Bit more activity already this morning, more than 300k traded so far. Almost sense something is coming.....:rolleyes:

[golden city]

looking good..

[golden city]

by the way.., nzr is also doing good or even better

[golden city]

milford is the seller

[sb9]

The clouds starting to clear slowly...

[minimoke]

They have to pay their $1.5m FMA fine somehow.

[sb9]

And ACC are buying....

[minimoke]

And ACC are buying....clever as they are, I don't think they are too fussy. They'll buy pretty much anything on the nzx

[golden city]

i remember they sold some at 1.80 before dividends

[golden city]

milford keep reducing

[sammiesmiles]

is milford in trouble so they have to selll the holdings?

[golden city]

they are sitting on big profits.., it is common sense to sell some

[minimoke]

is milford in trouble so they have to selll the holdings?

Not really. Seems having a rogue trader is no impediment to running a finance business

[golden city]

Selling pressures all gone

[sb9]

Hope so GC, every time the sp inches up, it comes down in the next few days...

[sammiesmiles]

i looks like ACC fund managers start to accumulate THL now:)

[golden city]

could THL be the next target of takeover after atm

[sb9]

Hmmm, hope not. Can't give everything to Aussies, gotta have some good ones for us, ey gc?

[sb9]

Selling pressures all gone

Not quiet GC, told ya....

[sammiesmiles]

sigh, when gc was optimistic, the sp dropped...

(sorry, no offence gc)

[golden city]

Haha...very unfortunate

[sammiesmiles]

Guys have you read this news yesterday?
The upside to a dropping dollar: Tourism gets a lift
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11469973

Also, THL has losts of profitable businesses in USA, UK and Aussie. Hence, low NZD actually benefits them a LOT.

[DarkHorse]

It certainly helps, although a fair chunk of campervan market is aussie visitors to NZ and visa-versa ...
A less obvious play on booming tourism and the falling kiwi and aussie dollars I like is Comvita - a fair portion of sales from Asian visitors to NZ (esp with new airport outlet) and Australia:
many more of them X many more NZD each to spend = great prospects

[noodles]

It certainly helps, although a fair chunk of campervan market is aussie visitors to NZ and visa-versa ...
A less obvious play on booming tourism and the falling kiwi and aussie dollars I like is Comvita - a fair portion of sales from Asian visitors to NZ (esp with new airport outlet) and Australia:
many more of them X many more NZD each to spend = great prospects
Agree on cvt. Dgl and scl are massive beneficiaries.

New thread required

[golden city]

nzr's engine is starting to work nicely

[Sideshow Bob]

nzr's engine is starting to work nicely

Wrong thread there GC! But concur......! :cool:

[sammiesmiles]

nzr's engine is starting to work nicely

Its good you said this GC ;)

[golden city]

doing good ...nzr

[golden city]

milford keep reducing., interesting

[golden city]

nzr is doing so good., it is about time.., comming back to thl ..

[sb9]

The sp has been all over the place in last two days....

[golden city]

it is low volume.. no risk..so ...., it is consolidating in the 1.70s to 1,80s...

[golden city]

once break ..will be fire too.., maybe need something good from campbell during the earning reports

[sb9]

Donno about that GC, lost count how many profit upgrades Mr Campbell has given....hopefully you're right and i'm wrong.

[benjitara]

It's been a few quiet weeks hire wise down at the chch branch but they've got some good stuff happening. New facility in chch almost up and running and the school holidays have kicked in here too. Confident they can continue to deliver. great yield. and still underpriced

[golden city]

start to buy back some

[macduffy]

start to buy back some

A "Buy straw hats in winter" strategy?

;)

[sb9]

start to buy back some

Good on ya gc, I've maxed out of portfolio allocation on this one.

[golden city]

had bought some more back..looking forward to the dividends.., probably 10c

[sb9]

had bought some more back..looking forward to the dividends.., probably 10c

yeah, good buy today..wish I had some funds available...

[golden city]

looking forward to hear more about uk acquisition ...

[golden city]

Just accumulated more shares

[golden city]

next power engine is moving peb

[sb9]

Well gc, I'm hanging out for the FY results...

[golden city]

sure..I am accumulating too

[Hawkeye]

Last year I nearly sold my THL shares for around 80cents but held off on your positive feedback GC, thanks for that.

Nuff said.

[golden city]

oh ...that is nice.....I am happy too..., I am a full time investor now.., so my everyday job is to watch how the market pend out.., hopefully more to come

[silverblizzard888]

NZ guest nights rise at fastest pace in 2 years on boost from domestic, international travellershttp://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11478810

[golden city]

sounds good...

[golden city]

looks like everyone forgot about the capital reviews..and the upgrades., happy me.. just keep accumulating.. little by little

[sb9]

All signs are very positive, just the waiting for the numbers to reveal real value. Well done gc, good for you.

[golden city]

i am valueing thl at 2.30 to 2.50 at least once the numbers reveal

[golden city]

have make good profit from nzr in short time.., now getting back to thl ..my home turf

[sb9]

Yeah, I reckon $2 in the short term and lower dollar should boost their earnings on the back of tourism boost.

[golden city]

thl hasn't up more in the first half.., will catch up in the second half..,every one has they're turns

[sb9]

Looks like we're two are the only ones invested in this one from this forum...

[noodles]

Looks like we're two are the only ones invested in this one from this forum...
You also have silent company. THL is my 4th largest position.

Rob Campbell does such a great job explaining the how they are going to grow earnings, I don't feel there is much to add.

[sb9]

You also have silent company. THL is my 4th largest position.

Rob Campbell does such a great job explaining the how they are going to grow earnings, I don't feel there is much to add.
Thanks noodles, good see to you on board on this one.

[Arbroath]

Yeah, I reckon $2 in the short term and lower dollar should boost their earnings on the back of tourism boost.

THL is my largest position also. The lower NZD is less important than consumer confidence in the originating tourist markets according to management. I]d look at it as the lower NZD can help spend once tourists arrive but the consumer confidence part of the equation is about the decision to travel. In the current environment I'd say the two are offsetting each other as the NZD is lower mainly due to slowing global growth.

[glennj]

Looks like we're two are the only ones invested in this one from this forum...

No, I'm in and picked it for the stock picking comp. Just 20k shares though! (Only ever pick stocks I hold in that comp)

[sb9]

1,266,347 share transacted off market at $1.70....are you buying more gc?

[golden city]

yes..bought some today

[sammiesmiles]

gc did you buy 1 million shares today?

[Food4Thought]

The lower dollar is also very good for Australia based Kiwis wanting to send money to NZ (and overseas people buying up shares)... this will help the NZ economy (at least short term... till the profits exit). Tourism in NZ this winter will take a huge spike with the awesome snow conditions. Should be a ripper of a season. Some years back I clearly remember these shares being 60c... and thinking... huge potential. Every person I talk to outside of NZ, wants to visit NZ, or has visited NZ... NZ is amazing, Mostly they say middle Earth. The tourism companies in this sector when times are going well, will do, very well. Best of luck holders. I salute you

[golden city]

not that much.., I only bought quarter million shares

[sb9]

Well gc, will put your name forward for THL knighthood...:D

[golden city]

just bought somemore today

[sammiesmiles]

gc you do need to put SSH announancement on NZX ;)

[golden city]

I am waiting for fat dividends

[golden city]

and capital review should have some good news out soon

[golden city]

Looking good

[black knat]

GC - I see Milford has been selling down - but i guess they were buyers and much cheaper prices. any incites?

[golden city]

Milford only force to sell...because they got problem they self..nothing to do with thl

[golden city]

I see it break 2 dollar next month..

[sammiesmiles]

I see it break 2 dollar next month..

gc.....:scared:

[golden city]

yes...could even be 2.50 haha

[silverblizzard888]

Reporting date has been announced, Thursday 27th August!

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/216944.pdf

[vin]

Might jump in the THL mix.. Just about holding!

[Food4Thought]

Would be in if I had some cash in NZ. Will be a very good winter season too. Best of luck for August report.

[golden city]

happy waiting

[sb9]

I'm sure the wait will be worth every cent :t_up:

[dodgy]

I'm sure the wait will be worth every cent :t_up:

Agree, +10% s/p from here and prospect special divi.
-dodgy (owner/shareholder)

[golden city]

looks solid..., feeling good

[Balance]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-19/cheap-kiwi-jetboat-rides-call-tourists-as-economy-sours-on-milk

Economy shifts from milking cows to milking tourist dollars - outlook certainly looks outstanding for THL.

[noodles]

Agree, +10% s/p from here and prospect special divi.
-dodgy (owner/shareholder)
I doubt we will see a special dividend as there are no imputation credits. More likely to see a buyback.

[golden city]

if it really want better liquidity ., I think a share split might be an better option

[dodgy]

I doubt we will see a special dividend as there are no imputation credits. More likely to see a buyback.

Good morning noodles and all,
I tend to think you might be right, but not having imps doesnt preclude an increased dividend if not "Special". I have expressed my dislike of buy backs that seem to be trendy in the NZ market. Why let any company board decide how to use surplus capital, at least without a current owners/shareholders endorsement. I prefer to use excess to my best advantage, which tends to be more efficient.
Comments?
Regards
-dodgy (owner/shareholder - expectant of an exchange rate driven mini boom - tourism)

[Balance]

Good morning noodles and all,
I tend to think you might be right, but not having imps doesnt preclude an increased dividend if not "Special". I have expressed my dislike of buy backs that seem to be trendy in the NZ market. Why let any company board decide how to use surplus capital, at least without a current owners/shareholders endorsement. I prefer to use excess to my best advantage, which tends to be more efficient.
Comments?
Regards
-dodgy (owner/shareholder - expectant of an exchange rate driven mini boom - tourism)

NZ investors like to have their dividends even if they reinvest immediately back via a DRP - the 'bricks and mortar' mindset. So important for management to consider that for investor support.

[RTM]

Morning Dodgy, I owned some Apple shares for a while. The stock benefited enormously from their massive buy back.
Less shares on issue.
Less dividends to pay out etc etc.
I'm not an accountant and don't understand all the ins and outs....but there was a lot of discussion on why buying back stock was a very efficient way to return value to the share holder. If you want some more detail...PM me and I will try to dig out some of the relevant discussion. I was initially in your camp, but that may be to simplistic of a way to consider it.
Cheers
RTM

[golden city]

record tourist numbers

[dodgy]

Morning Dodgy, I owned some Apple shares for a while. The stock benefited enormously from their massive buy back.
Less shares on issue.
Less dividends to pay out etc etc.
I'm not an accountant and don't understand all the ins and outs....but there was a lot of discussion on why buying back stock was a very efficient way to return value to the share holder. If you want some more detail...PM me and I will try to dig out some of the relevant discussion. I was initially in your camp, but that may be to simplistic of a way to consider it.
Cheers
RTM
Good afternoon RTM
I agree with what your are saying but this must be taken in the context of the huge US market, extremely liquid stocks, well supported generally on fantastic growth paths. My experience with NZ stocks continues to prove my argument e.g watch NZO and TWR. Sure there are different drivers e.g Oil price etc. but all the relevant contributing factors were anticipated or known when management and directors endorsed returns (tax efficiency or otherwise). Hence in NZ at least I am vehemently apposed to capital returns - good article for Gaynor here.
I am more than happy to be proved wrong.
Regards
-dodgy

[sb9]

record tourist numbers

Yeah, just look at AIA price today. Looks like the tide has well and truly turned now...

[golden city]

bought some more today ..happy to accumulated

[sb9]

Wow gc, you should at least be a honorary director on THL board...:)

[golden city]

confident crack 2 dollar this time..

[sb9]

This time I reckon it'll crack that $2 mark very soon.

[golden city]

targeting 2.30 ..with good forecast.., could fetch 2.80

[sammiesmiles]

targeting 2.30 ..with good forecast.., could fetch 2.80


i agree, with PE 13, 2.3 is a fair price.

[golden city]

firm at 1.82...looks likely break the trigger point

[sb9]

I think it'll break that trigger by today's close...

[vin]

not that much.., I only bought quarter million shares

here's me contemplating buying another 3000.. :(!

[golden city]

go for it.., still good time to buy..before it is too late

[golden city]

cracking...slowly cracking toward 2 dollar

[sb9]

Yep, only matter of time...boost to tourism on the back lower dollar, not only good for AIA, AIR also to THL...

[bull....]

what you people think about a share issue being part of there capital review improves liquidity, you can buy some more at a discount, more money for acquisitions as improves debt equity ratio by paying down debt, reduces int costs?

speculation on my part

[sb9]

I doubt it, think their debt level quite under control (heard in one of CEO's interview posted on NZX a while ago).

[golden city]

balance sheet at their best at the moment.., lower their debt to 60m already.., which capital return is more better or split shares

[golden city]

bit quiet today.., had opportunity to acquired some more

[IAK]

looks solid..., feeling good

Classic...........

[Arbroath]

This has to be good.....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11487580

[golden city]

everything looks good...well on track to achieve the 14% returns on capital

[sb9]

Well in the meantime, 2,750,000 traded off market at $1.80.

[golden city]

i guess mildford reduce again..

[golden city]

but buyer are willing to take up that much shares at 1.80..still looks promising

[Balance]

but buyer are willing to take up that much shares at 1.80..still looks promising

Buyer could now have the upper hand. Big volume and up on a down day - all positive signs.

[golden city]

just waiting for the big news to hit

[silverblizzard888]

We could be due for a quarterly update this week, but not sure if THL does it regularly enough. Last update was in end of April so end of this month would make sense.

[sammiesmiles]

We could be due for a quarterly update this week, but not sure if THL does it regularly enough. Last update was in end of April so end of this month would make sense.
they will have annual result announancement on 27 Aug. there may not be any quarterly update before this.

[sb9]

Yeah, I think so too. The last update in April was around profit upgrade and capital structure plans, guess its one off, not a regularity.

[Balance]

THL has been updating the market as profits have been upgraded. The major announcement that everyone is waiting for now is on capital management. Cannot be too far off.

[sb9]

My pick is it'll push thro' $1.90s very soon, eh gc?

[golden city]

very soon.., intial targeting 2.36....

[golden city]

had spent all my money on thl.., full of stomach

[sb9]

Good on ya, it's looking good...

[sammiesmiles]

very promising trading pattern today.

[golden city]

got to fire soon

[sb9]

Yep, just matter of time...

[Balance]

Yep, just matter of time...

Fresh air between $1.85 and $1.90 - looking like the seller (Milford?) has stopped. A positive capital management announcement should see the sp at $2.00, I hope.

[golden city]

looking good..before opening

[sb9]

Some serious buying going on now...

[vin]

Think I missed the boat to topup..

[golden city]

thl is my darling.., works very well

[sb9]

Its my favourite too, my other favourite is SCL...

[golden city]

good on you sb9 haha

[Hectorplains]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11490948
Ducks are all lining up for THL...

[sb9]

Onwards and upwards from here for THL...

[golden city]

looking good..,love it

[vin]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11490948
Ducks are all lining up for THL...

Yep look good. Onwards & upwards. Thinking may still be good buying opportunity while under $2

[Cricketfan]

Seems to almost have recovered to its 2007 price.

[winner69]

Seems to almost have recovered to its 2007 price.

about the time of the big failed takeover

Wonder how many of those holding back then are still holding .... and feeling happy now

[Arbroath]

Seems to almost have recovered to its 2007 price.

Interesting you mention that CricketFan. I recently did the following comparison between 2007 and the likely 2015 numbers

6/2007 6/2015
Revenue $190m $242m +27%
EBITDA $58m $64m +10%
EBIT $25m $32m +28%
NPAT $13m $20m +54%
ROE 7.4% 12.3%
Debt/Debt+Equity 40% 25%
Dividend per share 11c 15c +36%
Market Cap $245m $204m -17%
Share Price $2.50 $1.82 -27%

Glad this among other factors prompted me to add to my holding. Fundamentally the company is stronger and represents better value - would need at least $2.50 in a takeover scenario today and that would be a better purchase for the bidder than it was in 2007.

[sb9]

Wow, that's some telling numbers there Arbroath, thanks for sharing...That basically reiterates the underlying value in this stock.

[DarkHorse]

Interesting you mention that CricketFan. I recently did the following comparison between 2007 and the likely 2015 numbers

6/2007 6/2015
Revenue $190m $242m +27%
EBITDA $58m $64m +10%
EBIT $25m $32m +28%
NPAT $13m $20m +54%
ROE 7.4% 12.3%
Debt/Debt+Equity 40% 25%
Dividend per share 11c 15c +36%
Market Cap $245m $204m -17%
Share Price $2.50 $1.82 -27%

Glad this among other factors prompted me to add to my holding. Fundamentally the company is stronger and represents better value - would need at least $2.50 in a takeover scenario today and that would be a better purchase for the bidder than it was in 2007.

Thanks Abroath, nice comparison! Risk/reward equation looking great on this one :)

[Kirk]

$2 tomorrow GC

[sb9]

Here we go...

https://nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/267891

[sammiesmiles]

no buy back is going to happen, it this announcement positive or what?

[bull....]

no buy back is going to happen, it this announcement positive or what?

they increased div payout and flagged increased earnings and acquisitions and some announcements at aannual results looks positive to me, increasing earnings and cashflow means bigger divs going forward

[benjitara]

The turnaround is a credit to a number of factors but management need to be applauded for the work they've done over the last few years. Sad I didn't get in around the 70c mark a couple of years ago but pleased to have got in a few months back and pleased to hold going forward. Their position in the nz market is pretty strong. From what I gather their offerings to the rental market will become a little more "focussed" into the lower end of tourist budgets over the next couple of years.

[golden city]

still looking good with forecast of 30million.in future ..., but no surprises..at the moment

[sb9]

I'm sure there will be an element of surprise at the time FY results announcement on 27th Aug. May be a special divvy of some sort, just speculation on my part.

[benjitara]

They've done a good job of cost cutting and making sure their CAPEX has been on a tight rein throughout a tough period. They've gained market share and ridden the positive macro features lately too. all looks well for the next couple of years if they can keep their heads, increased divi payouts make this look like a super yield stock in the next 2-3 years too

[golden city]

push over to 2.02 today,.., looking good next month

[sb9]

I think it should be in $2 trading range pretty soon. Just that the whole market caught up in CEN sale atm. Not much funds spared to allocate to other stocks.

[Regi]

And there's the $2 :t_up:

[sb9]

Yeah, got to $2.02 two days back, trick is to hang in above that. I think it might stay above that this time.

[silverblizzard888]

Only a matter of time when $2 is smashed through and becomes support, for now its still a slight resistance.Things may change today or tomorrow.

[golden city]

I might get rich soon ..love it

[Regi]

I might get rich soon ..love it

Do you own THL yet? :D

[sb9]

Loving the current BOT on this stock :t_up:

[golden city]

looking good..still got 3 weeks to see what dividends we will get?

[sammiesmiles]

I might get rich soon ..love it

make sure you make SSH here first so that we can follow you, gc:t_up:

[golden city]

:t_up: haha...all good

[bull....]

Under there revised 70 - 90% pay-out ratio they could pay up to 16c of divs so since they have paid 7c interim then do you think they could pay 9c annual div?

And with there strongest cashflow for yrs do you people think they will pay a special dividend?

[golden city]

i am thinking they will pay another 7c dividends.plus 10c special dividends

[BobbyMorocco]

Under there revised 70 - 90% pay-out ratio they could pay up to 16c of divs so since they have paid 7c interim then do you think they could pay 9c annual div?

And with there strongest cashflow for yrs do you people think they will pay a special dividend?

The payout ratio is 75 - 90%. So from their guidance we can assume a final dividend in the 7c - 9c range. I'd be happy with that.

[sb9]

I go with gc on this one. I think they pay normal 7c as divvy and 10c as a one off special.

[Beagle]

The directors and management do seem to have the bit between their teeth and be going for gold, I must say ! The lower $Kiwi will be a major boost to tourism in N.Z. as let's be honest New Zealand was a bit expensive as a destination when we were at 88 cents U.S. Much more attractive now !

[sb9]

Roger, have you hopped on board on this one, if not already. If so, welcome aboard!!!

[golden city]

i think this time..thl could go up to around 2.50 short term., medium term 3 dollar is possible

[stones]

I agree with all of the above

[sb9]

Looks very promising in time for results to flow through in couple of weeks.

[silverblizzard888]

Woohoo THL flying so smoothly, lets hope it continues monday and beyond.

[golden city]

Looking good

[Hawkeye]

There is a lot of hype on this thread, and the market price is going up, not just from readers of this thread but other punters too. The market conditions are perfect for a booming THL performance, but with hype and market expectations calculated into the share price already, do you expect much of a reaction when they release their result? and what if its not a great as expected?

[sb9]

Hawkeye, Here are some announcements from the company in the past few months which might give you an idea about their earnings outlook

https://nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/263676

https://nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/263677

https://nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/267891

Those profit updates were from April this year when the NZD was relatively very high around 76c, now 66c. And there are many articles in media about tourism boom recently.

Hope this gives enough insight.