THL - Tourism Holdings

[bull....]

hawk some historical rough comparisons




2006

2007


2015



EPS

0.116

0.132


.17-.18



PE

16

17


11.50



DIV

0.11

0.11


.14-.18



DIV YIELD

5.94%

4.78%


7%



NPAT

11M

13M


19-20M










SHARE AV







LOW

1.58

1.96


1.6



HIGH

1.97

2.8


?





2006- 2007 was a comparibly good time for thl

[sb9]

Thanks for the info bull.

If we were to apply a low 15 pe multiple then the sp should be $2.55 (.17*15), go figure the potential + the divvy yield.

[golden city]

still good time to buy

[nextbigthing]

still good time to buy

Sell us, give your best sales pitch as to why we should buy then.

[sb9]

Sell us, give your best sales pitch as to why we should buy then.

If you skim through some of the recent posts on this thread from various members that would give you enough sales pitch.

[nextbigthing]

If you skim through some of the recent posts on this thread from various members that would give you enough sales pitch.

I have but I'm not yet sold :)

[bull....]

I did a big analysis on thl yrs ago on this thread and the company has panned out along the path I imagined back then, the biggest change was when ROB CAMPBELL took over I would credit him with a big part of where thl is now.

as for the future in there last announcement they say they want to smooth divs, going forward so if that is not your que to start treating this stock as a growth and INCOME stock I don't know what is.
Can you see 7% income lasting long in a falling rate environment

[nextbigthing]

Gidday Bull,

I take your point about a new captain now steering the ship, however the past company track record is hardly impressive. Many years of low profits or even losses. I think most people would like an income stock to have a more solid history to accept just 7%.
Conditions are good for tourism at the moment. What about when the conditions aren't?

Cheers,
NBT

[Regi]

Just heard that more and more Aussies are jumping the ditch to get in on our Ski season due to the slow start there. Numbers up 10% this time last year already! Can only be good.

[bull....]

Gidday Bull,

I take your point about a new captain now steering the ship, however the past company track record is hardly impressive. Many years of low profits or even losses. I think most people would like an income stock to have a more solid history to accept just 7%.
Conditions are good for tourism at the moment. What about when the conditions aren't?

Cheers,
NBT

naturally good times wont last for ever ( nothing guaranteed for any company ) tourism has cycles like most other things but as they say when these times come they will fund the divs thru operating earnings, even back in the ****ty days of the gfc thl still managed to pay something as a div.
even at 7% now and a fall to 3%? in the future? your average return over a number of yrs is still respectable this is what you achieve thru smoothing the divs over yrs, what thl are saying they will do.
anyway remember nothing is guaranteed ever. make hay while the sun shines

[Hawkeye]

Thanks sb9 and bull.... I had been following the thread so had a fair idea what was going on, the historical indications bull.... mentioned were an interesting read. I guess as a holder I should not look a gift horse in the mouth, as shortly after I made the post the price dropped... most likely a coincidence but still maybe I should make comments about IFT and VML, stocks I have had and no longer hold

[golden city]

just enjoying it..., will be settle for couple weeks..before firing again

[IAK]

SP is doing a Scales lol.

[golden city]

pick up some more today.haha

[benjitara]

there should be some good synergies with the new facility in chch holding both hire and retail operations.

[golden city]

just saw on website that they have retail operation in rv super center.., could add lots more service and product.,., such as sport gears

[golden city]

not sure ..what market share Apollo has in nz.., and jucy.., what another competitor thl have..any body knows?

[golden city]

if thl looking at acquisition.., who will be the target?

[silverblizzard888]

Found this interesting article about camper van hire searches http://www.firstdigital.co.nz/files/2014/08/Motorhomes-Campervans.pdf

It seems THL is doing really well, their brands Maui ranked 1st and Britz ranked 4th, both in NZ and AUS, while Juicy ranked 5th in NZ searches and 12th in AUS. Its pretty important to have a web presence particularly catering to international customers, so THL definitely doing it right! :)

Edit:
Seems the above report was at least a year old, heres the 2015 http://www.firstdigital.co.nz/files/2015/04/Campervans-and-Motorhomes-Online-SEO-Industry-Report.pdf?__hssc=245057178.5.1439553512676&__hstc=245057178.2506473ffc9a57abd3d8fcac446e4397. 1439553512674.1439553512674.1439553512674.1&hsCtaTracking=c8f1c77b-0a6c-44db-a098-60741c4be56f%7C268226f4-76c5-4553-88c8-7d502cfc45a3

Maui still rank 1st and Britz ranks 4th so still the same, but surprisingly Juicy ranks 2nd, so they have definitely made improvements.

[golden city]

still believe good time to accumulated.., before profit annoucement., could be more suprise good news comming

[vin]

^ Is there set date for profit announcement?

[golden city]

27th this month

[silverblizzard888]

Next weeks the big day! Bring on the good news!

[golden city]

over 2 again.,.., looks good.

[sb9]

Well, its all looking good from here.

PS: couldn't help notice both my favs SCL and THL are trading in similar price ranges atm.

[Beagle]

Well, its all looking good from here.

PS: couldn't help notice both my favs SCL and THL are trading in similar price ranges atm.

LOL decent old horse race between those two isn't it. I knew I'd end up wearing that "hospital pass" on the Air thread...thanks mate LOL

[Beagle]

Well, its all looking good from here.

PS: couldn't help notice both my favs SCL and THL are trading in similar price ranges atm.

LOL decent old horse race between those two isn't it. I knew I'd end up wearing that "hospital pass" on the Air thread...thanks mate.

[bull....]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11500738

record tourists, probably will increase because of our weaker dollar
we could also add more nz people now touring around nz instead of going overseas because of increased cost.

lets hope thl can match the great performance of results and dividends already announced when they report next week

[sb9]

Thanks for that bull, very promising

[Beagle]

Bullish :D

[sb9]

Are you on this ship Roger?

[Beagle]

Are you on this ship Roger?
Yep...been on board for a while but I have been very quiet...had to balance out all my HNZ posts somehow :lol: :lol:

[sb9]

All good, just wondered :)

[vin]

Gutted I missed the topup at $1.94 2 days go.. Contemplating.

[golden city]

lucky I took most of the 1.94 orders chess

[BobbyMorocco]

i am thinking they will pay another 7c dividends.plus 10c special dividends

So what makes you guys think we're going to see a special dividend announced on Thursday?

[golden city]

Because huge debt reduction s

[bull....]

So what makes you guys think we're going to see a special dividend announced on Thursday?
I don't know if they will or they won't but they can afford it with best operating cashflow in years it , be disappointing if nothing happens after putting up with years of sub par performance and nothing for shareholders coming from there expensive capital review and they would not be following the example of other nix companies who are rewarding shareholders after having good year

[see weed]

Gutted I missed the topup at $1.94 2 days go.. Contemplating.

You might have a chance tomorrow with all the doom and gloom talk lately.

[silverblizzard888]

4 days left!

[vin]

Some positive news!

"Auckland Airport says China's economic slowdown is a temporary blip in a long-term pattern of growth in emerging tourism markets."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/71382885/auckland-airport-softer-chinese-economy-will-not-derail-tourism-growth

[vin]

You might have a chance tomorrow with all the doom and gloom talk lately.

Yeah I topped up today, I reckon it'll blowover the next day or so.

[Saint]

$1.95... bargain

[sb9]

Did you pick more today gc, surely they were on sale again with 2 days until results....

[Kirk]

Are we really going to see much bounce once results are released. THL have told us basically what the NPAT is and the Divy payout ratio has been stated. Unless there are a couple of other suprises from the Cap structure review then i dont think there will be a big bounce

[sb9]

Market discounts the future earnings kirk, so while they've given trading update for FY15, its all about future plans around debt reduction, new acquisitions, capital restructure and market dynamics (like lower NZD and tourism boom). All this will be included in their commentary following results announcement, that's the extra 10% market looks for any surprises.

[Kirk]

The acquisitions plans are going to be the main thing in my view. Its going to be interesting at how they are going to fund them because of the payout ratio,but this depends on the target debt ratio. We havent heard about the result of the increase in share liquidity.

[golden city]

Must contain something good in statement to make share jump..I believe Campbell strategy

[golden city]

I bought enough. ..no more gas in tank

[golden city]

let see how will pend out for thl.., report comming ..two more day

[vin]

Yep hanging out for results!

[bull....]

how about a bonus issue of shares ? would meet part of the capital review

[golden city]

could be an option

[bull....]

bought some more

[sb9]

Good call bull, looks special sale is almost finished...

[golden city]

final day., tomorrow will see if there is ay surprises

[Saint]

Today is the day!

[benjitara]

very sound result. Beat their forecasts and now focussed on 30m NPAT by 2019. Good yield. new chch facility up and running. all good news so far

[golden city]

Lack of news from capital review is the pitfall..any way happy ..they are looking on growth

[bull....]

Lack of news from capital review is the pitfall..any way happy ..they are looking on growth

what gives with the capital review - a good cfo good have made those assumptions they paid mega bucks for lol

[golden city]

Will know more on November

[sb9]

Good result as expected. Agree gc, bit disappointed on lack of capital review details. Well, at least good divvy and they seem to be chasing growth through further acquisitions. It should all play out well on the back of tourism boom and lower NZD.

[golden city]

if they can find a good acquisition... that will be great...., with a lower dividends than i thought.. maybe they have something in mind

[bull....]

actually it doesn't really surprise me they didn't do a special div as they need the money for acquisitions.
I said yrs ago on this thread the only way this company will survive was thru buying sales and mergers and selling excess fleet

I have been proven right and the capital review just confirmed my analysis yrs ago - they should have paid me I would have been cheaper

[golden city]

haha..good on you bull..., are you coming to agm..., you can make some comments haha

[bull....]

7560

yea I might go in there new campervan model? im guessing this might of been one of the initiatives they were going to announce today?

[nextbigthing]

i think this time..thl could go up to around 2.50 short term., medium term 3 dollar is possible


still good time to buy

Still yet to see a basis for these claims golden city. Without basis they're just ramping.

[nextbigthing]

naturally good times wont last for ever ( nothing guaranteed for any company ) tourism has cycles like most other things but as they say when these times come they will fund the divs thru operating earnings, even back in the ****ty days of the gfc thl still managed to pay something as a div.
even at 7% now and a fall to 3%? in the future? your average return over a number of yrs is still respectable this is what you achieve thru smoothing the divs over yrs, what thl are saying they will do.
anyway remember nothing is guaranteed ever. make hay while the sun shines

Gidday Bull,

Cheers for the reply. Seems like a reasonable company to hold as part of a diversified portfolio and for exposure to that sector. However if it's dividends you're after, I think there's better options out there. For example, HNZ, PGW and HLG all have earnings yields around 10%. In bad times what could you expect this to drop to, 5%? Still better than 7% and 3% (divvy yeild) for THL. However if you're trying to find 20-30 higher yielding companies then I guess THL is an option.

Thoughts?

Cheers, NBT

[benjitara]

Still yet to see a basis for these claims golden city. Without basis they're just ramping.

Management have been open about focussing on 30mil NPAT in just a few short years. COMVITA management also made a similar prediction that has already been priced into the share price in my opinion. If THL were to produce 30 NPAT in the medium term then $3.00 is a sound prediction for a fair value given the increase in dividend pay out and growth opportunities

[bull....]

Gidday Bull,

Cheers for the reply. Seems like a reasonable company to hold as part of a diversified portfolio and for exposure to that sector. However if it's dividends you're after, I think there's better options out there. For example, HNZ, PGW and HLG all have earnings yields around 10%. In bad times what could you expect this to drop to, 5%? Still better than 7% and 3% (divvy yeild) for THL. However if you're trying to find 20-30 higher yielding companies then I guess THL is an option.

Thoughts?

Cheers, NBT

good points although all the stocks you mention are influenced by different cycles within the economy so unless your wanting to trade a specific cycle a mix of stocks for yield is probably better , but you already know that I believe as mentioned by your comments.
actually interesting that all those stocks you mention trade with very good fundamentals even cheap some may say wonder if it because maybe they are all a little bit risky in some way?

thl is influenced by consumer confidence - when everyone is feeling good about there financial well being they go on holiday when we are not feeling good we stay home.
thl fortunes flow with this cycle both local and international and by the way china problems may only have limited effect on thl ( I don't know how many Chinese drive campervans anyway?) as any slack maybe taken up by us and Europe people.
a financial market meltdown is very bad for thl even more so than regional dynamics as meltdown effects everyone at once

[benjitara]

good points although all the stocks you mention are influenced by different cycles within the economy so unless your wanting to trade a specific cycle a mix of stocks for yield is probably better , but you already know that I believe as mentioned by your comments.
actually interesting that all those stocks you mention trade with very good fundamentals even cheap some may say wonder if it because maybe they are all a little bit risky in some way?

thl is influenced by consumer confidence - when everyone is feeling good about there financial well being they go on holiday when we are not feeling good we stay home.
thl fortunes flow with this cycle both local and international and by the way china problems may only have limited effect on thl ( I don't know how many Chinese drive campervans anyway?) as any slack maybe taken up by us and Europe people.
a financial market meltdown is very bad for thl even more so than regional dynamics as meltdown effects everyone at once

I think thl is actually quite well placed with regards to any downturn or cyclical pressure at least in NZ. their USA operations sound like they are in for a nice couple of years and the UK acquisition could give us a glimpse of where future acquisitions may come from. Yes, overall consumer confidence is a major factor in the market they are in but they have a number of eggs in different baskets now. Chinese visitors will have their biggest effect on thl's tourist operations ie waitomo glow worms.....

[benjitara]

good points although all the stocks you mention are influenced by different cycles within the economy so unless your wanting to trade a specific cycle a mix of stocks for yield is probably better , but you already know that I believe as mentioned by your comments.
actually interesting that all those stocks you mention trade with very good fundamentals even cheap some may say wonder if it because maybe they are all a little bit risky in some way?

thl is influenced by consumer confidence - when everyone is feeling good about there financial well being they go on holiday when we are not feeling good we stay home.
thl fortunes flow with this cycle both local and international and by the way china problems may only have limited effect on thl ( I don't know how many Chinese drive campervans anyway?) as any slack maybe taken up by us and Europe people.
a financial market meltdown is very bad for thl even more so than regional dynamics as meltdown effects everyone at once

I think thl is actually quite well placed with regards to any downturn or cyclical pressure at least in NZ. their USA operations sound like they are in for a nice couple of years and the UK acquisition could give us a glimpse of where future acquisitions may come from. Yes, overall consumer confidence is a major factor in the market they are in but they have a number of eggs in different baskets now. Chinese visitors will have their biggest effect on thl's tourist operations ie waitomo glow worms.....

[golden city]

well placed.., with good dividends ., just somehow., share price static at the moment

[Kirk]

Market expecting more from the results. Special divy priced into pre-result release. Then the disappointment of not be told how liquidty is going to be improved which was one of the reasons for undertaking the capital review. This is a very good looking company. Good debt reduction and this board has certaintly turned the situation around and has a plan going forward.

[Kirk]

I like companies that dont pay out specials for the fact that they have projects that have a positive NPV that they can better employ the funds instead of distributing back to shareholders. These projects are also reflected in the ranging payout ratio of as low as 75%

[golden city]

yes.., i like the management team.., does the job very well.., i think we will hear more in agm

[bull....]

senior staff converting incentive 6500000 shares is this for them to sell on market?

[golden city]

looking brighter.., with some details of presentation

[Kirk]

GC do you think THL might make a play for a major competitor such as apollo or a jucy? or do you think it be far to expensive?

[golden city]

I think for their balance sheet...and merger skills...another big merger is possible

[sb9]

Agree, think they're well positioned for a good acquisition and the investor presentation in Sydney is to prop up more awareness about their intentions. All looking very positive.

[golden city]

also i like they mention about double summer use of the caravans ..., it works out very effecient

[benjitara]

I think a take-over of Apollo would be out of the question given the amount of debt they'd need to take on for a start.... We may smaller acquisitions abroad though and they seem to be tapping into a couple of different revenues streams in the next couple of years

[banter]

Three directors / officers have just changed some convertible shares into ords (at about 60cps) then sold some of the ords to pay for it.

so far:
Meldrum - 126k conversion, 138k sales - net: 12k
Horne - 182k conversion, 200k sales - net 18k
Webster -212k conversion, 250k sales - net 38k

So all have taken money 'off the table'; maybe more sales to come?
All sales are cum dividend.

[bull....]

Three directors / officers have just changed some convertible shares into ords (at about 60cps) then sold some of the ords to pay for it.

so far:
Meldrum - 126k conversion, 138k sales - net: 12k
Horne - 182k conversion, 200k sales - net 18k
Webster -212k conversion, 250k sales - net 38k

So all have taken money 'off the table'; maybe more sales to come?
All sales are cum dividend.

650k where converted to ords so plenty more to sell, cant blame them selling at the best price the shares been at for years or would do you think insiders selling at the top of the cycle? is a insight to the future lol notice they didn't give a guidance in there results

[banter]

maybe more sales to come?

Didn't have to wait long (https://nzx.com/files/attachments/220580.pdf).
Horne takes another $50k off the table.
Me too I think

[IAK]

Good article on SHAREaCAMPER on tv3 news tonight.
https://www.shareacamper.co.nz

[Master98]

Good article on SHAREaCAMPER on tv3 news tonight.
https://www.shareacamper.co.nz

p2p campervan renting, yes good idea, but not good for thl.

[golden city]

thl can buy into the idea maybe later on...depend on how sucessful it is

[Baa_Baa]

The companies that are challenging the norm are the ones who are described as 'disruptive'. They leverage online technology, collaboration, latent inventory, willing supply, willing buyers ... and trust, to 'dis-intermediate' traditional industry business models. They position as the facilitator of commerce rather than inventory owner who has to be the supplier as well. The disruptor in this industry for example, would still rent caravans but won't own any caravans. Like Uber doesn't own any taxis.

An excellent example of what THL might want to look into is Collaborate, CL8 on the ASX. This type of company, like Uber, is changing the business model by liberating supply from unexpected (but obvious) sources and providing it to willing customers at significant discount to established players. Ignoring this shift could be the end of the business model of THL as they know it, whereas embracing peer-2-peer business models with early mover advantage in their market, could be their future.

Edit: here's the example mentioned above 'MyCaravan' ... http://www.mycaravan.com.au/searchresults.php

[The Rocket]

The shareacamper idea sounds good but I have a camper van it cost me a lot. I like most people would not want to rent it out. Who is going to drive it and how would they treat my van after all money spent on it. Where will it will be driven not to mention wear and tear scratches and dents etc. Might be good for some people but I don't think they will find enough fools to lend there vans out for a few pieces of silver. SHAREACAMPER want 10% of the overall hire price and $70 a year to join shareacamper. If the people cancel shareacamper still get there fill commission. if they cancel outside 21 days I get nothing. inside 21 days I get 20%. I wouldn't mind doing it in Aussie and use someone's van lol. I think it is a great money maker for shareacamper with not much capital for starting off. To me the only fools in this game would be the van owners. I think they will be small fry and not be much of a problem for the big boys.:)

[sb9]

Appreciate you thoughts Rocket. Am sure THL management would be aware of this industry trend and have a plan in place.

[Beagle]

One of the reasons I don't invest is the proliferation of campervan price comparison websites of which there are many, here's one
http://fetchcampervanhirenewzealand.co.nz/

There are so few meaningful barriers to entry.

[golden city]

thl consolidation finished.., next week will start cracking before dividends record

[bull....]

thl consolidation finished.., next week will start cracking before dividends record

bullish flag consolidation

[bull....]

getting close - looking forward to the growth add-on initiatives to be announced at the agm maybe they will still give us a surprise from there capital review?

[sb9]

What date is the AGM?

[golden city]

November I think

[golden city]

Campbell like given surprises..,wait and see

[golden city]

my initial target for thl was 2.35..., let's see if it can get there

[vin]

Looking good!

[bull....]

Looking good!

breaking out of the bullish consolidation - pattern says may go to 2.25 short term

[sb9]

Very solid now...

[golden city]

i am a happy man.., hiting trilogy.., thl,til,nzr all perfomer to my targets

[sb9]

Good on ya gc...well done.

Looks like large trade of 1mln shares transacted in the last minute or so.

[bull....]

Good on ya gc...well done.

Looks like large trade of 1mln shares transacted in the last minute or so.

big volume confirms the breakout, I think a institution buying in as a lot of stock accumulated at 1.98 - 2 as well

[sb9]

Can confirm now that 1mln shares went thro' at $2.10 off market.

[golden city]

Looks good...acquisition on its way

[sb9]

ACC was the seller y'day of 1mln share @$2.10 as per notice issued on NZX this arvo, wonder who the buyer might be?

[golden city]

acc always doing stupid things so., no need to take acc into account

[golden city]

they always sale too early...buy too late

[nextbigthing]

acc always doing stupid things so., no need to take acc into account

So it was a stupid idea for ACC to buy THL?

[golden city]

you look it the price they bought and sale.., how much margin they make..?

[sb9]

November I think

ASM Date 23 Nov...

[bull....]

someone continues to build a huge stake , I have 18% of the company changing hands last nfew mths volume way bigger than average , takeover?

[sb9]

You're onto it bull...looks like something's up going by the trade volumes in the past few days with close to 600k shares traded today.

[vin]

Does this mean we continue to hold :X?

[golden city]

i have sold in some to feel the buying power.., someone eat it all at 2.10....., takeover comming ..well could be.., building 19.9% before announcing?

[vin]

would a takeover be a definite positive? excuse my ignorance

[golden city]

for the share price ..certainly it will be

[golden city]

takeover price will be at 2.50 to 2.80 guess

[golden city]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/72485367/tourism-holdings-limited-buys-waitomos-big-apple

thl has make an acquisition...which didn't accounce?

[bull....]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/72485367/tourism-holdings-limited-buys-waitomos-big-apple

thl has make an acquisition...which didn't accounce?

brilliant stuff- bolt on to waitomo caves that what I say yrs ago how thl can leverage the Chinese tourist

[golden city]

certainly campbell is doing things right....,

[vin]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/72485367/tourism-holdings-limited-buys-waitomos-big-apple

thl has make an acquisition...which didn't accounce?

Strange they didn't announce this

[sb9]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/72485367/tourism-holdings-limited-buys-waitomos-big-apple

thl has make an acquisition...which didn't accounce?

May be materially non-impact, hence not announced?

[bull....]

thl will be able to get the buses an tourists to stop at big apple before or after waitomo caves fun hope they have a nice selection of Chinese food available

[Kirk]

get them to stay the night up there as well

[Kirk]

Would THL be interested http://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/home-property/72505707/luxury-moeraki-boulders-estate-on-the-market-for-7m

[golden city]

I think they could invest into accommodation too

[bull....]

Would THL be interested http://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/home-property/72505707/luxury-moeraki-boulders-estate-on-the-market-for-7m

I be surprised about that , the big apple acquisition is a bolt on to waitomo caves
plenty of upside in the acquisition have a look at the feedback on big apple on trip advisor very mixed to say the least so plenty of upside in my opinion

[sb9]

Another 500k shares traded late in the day off market @$2.14 a piece. Smell something is about to happen soon, me thinks.

[Kirk]

Building up positions for divy or do you think there is potentially some inside information that is been traded on that the market doesnt yet know? Either way still might be a chance to top up

[golden city]

hard to know what is going on..

[golden city]

for dividends .. doesn't look like ...., the volume is way bigger ..for many days now

[sb9]

Yeah, I don't think the trades reflect solely for divvies.

Well, they had investor presentations in Sydney recently and I guess that might've something to do with recent buy up. In any case "watch the space", won't be long before news comes out.

[golden city]

another merger possible

[Kirk]

It still seems undervalued even for just the current business structure given the high forecasted growth rate for the next 3-4 years. One of the better bargins running around on NZX atm?

[golden city]

one pitfall is that we haven't got a forecast for 2016..., to me...it could be just a little bit better than last year..., normally they give some sort of idea earlier.., to not give any forecast yet.., to me ..it won't be too exicit next year..,

[Kirk]

my growth rate estimation is based on the $30mil target. However it is assuming even growth

[Arbroath]

one pitfall is that we haven't got a forecast for 2016..., to me...it could be just a little bit better than last year..., normally they give some sort of idea earlier.., to not give any forecast yet.., to me ..it won't be too exicit next year..,

My guess is AGM update they'll say something like "targeting 10%+ growth tis year" i.e. $22-23m NPAT. They are targeting growth and have done a good job the past 24 months but it surely gets harder from this point as the tourism market is not a one way bet - like dairy it seems many forget it is cyclical even if the long term trend is up...

[bull....]

I think your find they will do a big overseas acquisition and you need to factor in the big change to financials this makes, it is how this company works and they say they are going global.
im thinking more uk or us acquisitions in the wind
agm will bring a surprise for sure I reckon
someone is accumulating a big stake

[sb9]

My money is it'll (acquisition) either be across the ditch or UK.

[vin]

ex div tomorrow..

[golden city]

What is the intention for the buyer...another big buy

[sb9]

Well, all I can say exiting times ahead....

[golden city]

thl is settle down

[sb9]

Hey gc, your bank account would be bit blown out today with those divvies to paid out today.

[golden city]

havnt see it yet

[golden city]

til will going up soon mate

[vin]

SP will be going up?

Can't find any info on divvy ><

[sb9]

You can check the details on link market investor centre with your login.

I notice the payment thro' Computershare goes thro' the same day and that link market goes thro' later in the evening.

In THL's case the payment might go thro' later today, haven't got mine in the bank yet, but checked the payment details online though.

[golden city]

happy shareholder haha

[sb9]

til will going up soon mate

May be wrong thread, but in case of TIL am bit circumspective in the light strong NZD v AUD as my understanding is that big portion of their sales comes from Aussy market, happy to be corrected though.

[sb9]

There is a link on NZX website (nzx.com) a recent interview with CEO Webster, worth watching if you're a keen THL follower.

[golden city]

doesn't give hint forecast to next year..

[golden city]

not feeling comfortable for short term. to be honest.., 3,4 years term...looks ok

[bull....]

doesn't give hint forecast to next year..

forecast will be given at agm I believe as well as other initiatives they mentioned a while back

[sb9]

forecast will be given at agm I believe as well as other initiatives they mentioned a while back

Precisely, if you hear the interview, CEO mentions about further acquisitions/growth opportunities on the back of strong balance sheet. Which only means they're looking at all possible avenues to grow further (he also emphasises revenue growth)before putting out any forecasts.

Keep faith gc, it'll all be good.

[sb9]

Chairman adds more to his holdings (18,650 shares on-market purchase).

[golden city]

more happy to hold now..., as campbell buy more.., everytime he buys.., surprise comming

[bull....]

more happy to hold now..., as campbell buy more.., everytime he buys.., surprise comming

good to see directors buying, although a sellers holding the price back at the moment so once they are gone should be off to the races my target al time highs 2.80

[golden city]

someone bought 5m

[sb9]

someone bought 5m

Must be big off-market transaction of 2ml shares.
bull, might see your target hit sooner than later.

[bull....]

something is definitely up 20m shares or nearly 18% of the company has changed hands now

[golden city]

takeover or someone bought controling stakes...

[sb9]

Am sure there's gonna be big announcement at ASM next month.

[bull....]

Am sure there's gonna be big announcement at ASM next month.

I hope so esp after they say so following there very expensive capital review which was very informative I must say

[Bilbo]

something is definitely up 20m shares or nearly 18% of the company has changed hands now

ANZ Securities is showing a trade of 2,386,126 shares as a "put through" transaction. My understanding (and I may be wrong) is that this is when a transfer is done from one custodian to another with the same beneficial owner, so not really shares changing hands. I could be wrong though and maybe someone with more knowledge can enlighten us all?

[bull....]

ANZ Securities is showing a trade of 2,386,126 shares as a "put through" transaction. My understanding (and I may be wrong) is that this is when a transfer is done from one custodian to another with the same beneficial owner, so not really shares changing hands. I could be wrong though and maybe someone with more knowledge can enlighten us all?

top shareholders are nominees - forsyth barr 16.8% and national nominees 14% so they maybe playing with each other.

but could still be building a stake for the same person.

acc have maintained there holding for years so would be surprised if they were selling out

[golden city]

bought more ...today..,

[vin]

Yeah I'm also tempted..

[baller18]

THL and TIL charts are so similar, just like their names

[bull....]

anyone know what sort of time period you have to disclose a substantial holding ?

[vin]

We have liftoff..

[sb9]

Gotta love the chairman, Mr Campbell bought another 8,600 shares on market today @$2.19 :t_up:

[golden city]

i am lucky man..both thl til jump

[bull....]

Gotta love the chairman, Mr Campbell bought another 8,600 shares on market today @$2.19 :t_up:

he's a smart investor

[golden city]

indicate more good news for agm

[bull....]

agm going to be big event , catering sure to be huge as well

[sb9]

Are you guys going to ASM, bull and gc?

[golden city]

yes..i will go

[sb9]

Good on ya gc.

Those booming tourist numbers should be very encouraging for further earnings.

[golden city]

all set to go...2.23 looks will be bust soon

[bull....]

brought more today, if Campbell buy more I buy more good sign

[golden city]

looking good

[vin]

yep should be a cracker, increased my holding

[golden city]

i had increased my too from last week

[sb9]

Yep, after being around that $2.20 mark finally broke into $2.23, I know it's not much movement but looks very strong from here. Look forward to ASM in couple of weeks time.

[golden city]

another big trade

[bull....]

another big trade

accumulating

[sb9]

accumulating

Looking awesome now....

[golden city]

something very unusual

[sb9]

something very unusual
In what way and why do you say that?

[golden city]

the volume is too big to be true....must something going on

[sb9]

Well, let's wait and see then what comes out of this.

[forest]

Hi Golden City, volume is not that big. About 9 times average daily volume and less than halve what it was on the 20th of last month. Likely a bigger investors is seeing THL potential.

[bull....]

Hi Golden City, volume is not that big. About 9 times average daily volume and less than halve what it was on the 20th of last month. Likely a bigger investors is seeing THL potential.

its the volumes over last few mths that's interesting someone accumulating?

[golden city]

i am picking takeover talks imminent

[sb9]

We're on the move again, light volume though....current depth looks pretty ominous!

[golden city]

just matter of time for a break out

[bull....]

annual meeting coming up -

key things to watch

guidance - they were waiting for high season in the US to finish june to sept road bear makes most of there money in this period also AUS has a second high season july -aug from euro tourists so they will have this info as well. I believe tourist arrivals in the US are very good for the high season esp from there main markets of AUS,UK,GERMANS AND SWISS.
NZ and AUS high season from DEC-March so they will have forward bookings for these now, tourists numbers are at records in NZ esp from there main customer UK,US,AUS,GERMANS and there is good correlation between tourist numbers from these country and thl rentals.

Also they say quoted from thl - we will announcew some intiatives at AGM

[golden city]

finally break out..

[golden city]

finally break out..

[sb9]

Ready for another run now 228...

[vin]

Yep, exciting times.

[bull....]

http://www.tourismnewzealand.com/markets-stats/
check out tourists coming from thl key markets double digit growth

also a snapshot from aust tourist data

Visitor arrival highlights for September 2015
· There were 571,500 visitor arrivals during September 2015, up 10.4% on September 2014. Growth rates have picked up in September compared to the average 5-7% seen across the last few months.

also alpine bird (formally kea) sold some the other day 1.5m they received these as part of the takeover i believe

[sb9]

http://www.tourismnewzealand.com/markets-stats/
check out tourists coming from thl key markets double digit growth

also a snapshot from aust tourist data

Visitor arrival highlights for September 2015
· There were 571,500 visitor arrivals during September 2015, up 10.4% on September 2014. Growth rates have picked up in September compared to the average 5-7% seen across the last few months.

also alpine bird (formally kea) sold some the other day 1.5m they received these as part of the takeover i believe

Thanks for that bull, the last sentence from your quote was quite interesting to note. No announcement to that affect from the company then.

In the meantime, we've just hit 230..

[iceman]

The announcement from American Airlines today should be great news for THL

[bull....]

The announcement from American Airlines today should be great news for THL

should be very positive , the addition of more plane seats and port calls can only increase tourists coming from the us good for thl

[bull....]

seems to have gone sleepy, everyone must be waiting for those big capital management iniatives they said they were going to announce at the annual result or was it the agm?

[sb9]

Yeah Monday it is the ASM, will be interesting to see what comes out of that.

[sb9]

As expected some late buying interest coming in, just in time for ASM on Monday.

[golden city]

just sold some til.., bought more thl ...

[sb9]

Looking very ominous right now....

[vin]

Battling with TIL haha

[sb9]

From ASM presentations very positive outlook:

EBIT forecast to be up by 14% to $37m from $32.3m and
NPAT forecast to be up by 10% to $22m from $20.1m.

[Beagle]

It'll be interesting after last year's substantial profit jump to see what the market thinks of the prospect of a modest 10% projected profit increase this year in what is clearly a very buoyant market e.g. (AIR forecasting current half to double last year's first half). Disc - I don't own and prefer AIR's undemanding valuation metrics.

In regard to the horse race between TIL and THL my money is on TIL.

[sb9]

They're always bit conservative in their forecasts, just to keep some surprise element come actual results time. And their busiest season is just about to get underway. I'm sure those who are at the ASM can give us more information about growth prospects.

[Beagle]

They're always bit conservative in their forecasts. Agreed there's always the potential for more and history suggests it happens but the SP has had such a strong run, does 10% projected profit growth at this stage really cut the mustard with the twin tailwinds of booming tourism and the lower dollar ? Maybe a few punters will take a bit of cream off the top of their tasty cappuccino ?

[sb9]

Agreed there's always the potential for more and history suggests it happens but the SP has had such a strong run, does 10% projected profit growth at this stage really cut the mustard with the twin tailwinds of booming tourism and the lower dollar ? Maybe a few punters will take a bit of cream off the top of their tasty cappuccino ?

Take your point.

However, am happy to hold for long term. Surge in tourist numbers, lower currency tailwind, upcoming holiday season and future strategic acquisitions are key factors for my long term hold.

[Robomo]

Take your point.

However, am happy to hold for long term. Surge in tourist numbers, lower currency tailwind, upcoming holiday season and future strategic acquisitions are key factors for my long term hold.

The results and outlook just seem somewhat subdued in tone, particular as there has been a strong upsurge in SP the last few weeks. Obviously some punters were anticipating (and predicting) something big. Didn't happen so I'm not surprised the SP has gone down. However, the long-term prospects still look good so will be happy to hold and take dividends at net 6.7% yield.

[golden city]

nothign exciting in agm...., it is going to be a income stock from now on..., it is full anticitated...

[sb9]

However, the long-term prospects still look good so will be happy to hold and take dividends at net 6.7% yield.

Couldn't agree more, on the back drop of low interest rate times to continue for a while, its a very decent stock to own. Anything positive is a bonus over that, am sure there is a surprise element somewhere in near future, as they said their focus is on growing top line.

[golden city]

i think valuation should base on pe 15 now..., as income stock

[bull....]

all looked good to me, aquisition potential looks best in the us road bear add-on or tourism side as they seem to provide best return on funds.
Still see it as a growth and income stock, cheap as chips when a good aquisition is made

[golden city]

stay on is the call

[sb9]

all looked good to me, aquisition potential looks best in the us road bear add-on or tourism side as they seem to provide best return on funds.
Still see it as a growth and income stock, cheap as chips when a good aquisition is made
Well put bull, just takes one good acquisition and it'll take off rapidly. Happy to hold.

[bull....]

market doesnt seem to like the stock after there agm, capital management bs must be the reason?

[Beagle]

market doesnt seem to like the stock after there agm, capital management bs must be the reason?

SP increased circa 28% from $1.80 in Sept to $2.30 approx. in anticipation of a ripper announcement at the ASM. When tourism is growing at a whopping 9% per annum and there's also a strong tailwind from the lower currency both in terms of conversion of overseas earnings and N.Z. being a cheaper and more attractive place to visit with cheap airfares and lower currency is it really any surprise the market is underwhelmed with a 10% increase in profit forecast ?

[noodles]

SP increased circa 28% from $1.80 in Sept to $2.30 approx. in anticipation of a ripper announcement at the ASM. When tourism is growing at a whopping 9% per annum and there's also a strong tailwind from the lower currency both in terms of conversion of overseas earnings and N.Z. being a cheaper and more attractive place to visit with cheap airfares and lower currency is it really any surprise the market is underwhelmed with a 10% increase in profit forecast ?
The company was very explicit that the forecast included $2m of growth initiatives that were to be expenced. Without this, they would have been looking at 20% growth in NPAT. Their track record of conservative forecast means that it is likely to be upgraded.
It is also worth noting that Rob Campbell was buying at current prices.

[Beagle]

The company was very explicit that the forecast included $2m of growth initiatives that were to be expenced. Without this, they would have been looking at 20% growth in NPAT. Their track record of conservative forecast means that it is likely to be upgraded.
It is also worth noting that Rob Campbell was buying at current prices.

Yep fair comment mate and noted but OTOH just for the sake of a debate and comparison, AIR are expanding their operations and expensing much of the cost in doing so on new routes and growing profit at 100% and are on about half the PE. Perhaps its simply that the market is underwhelmed by 20% underlying profit growth given the strength of the tailwinds ?

[sb9]

The company was very explicit that the forecast included $2m of growth initiatives that were to be expenced. Without this, they would have been looking at 20% growth in NPAT. Their track record of conservative forecast means that it is likely to be upgraded.
It is also worth noting that Rob Campbell was buying at current prices.

Agree 100%.

Bit of weakness in sp is expected as some might want to get out, fair enough. Happy to continue to hold for long term.

[golden city]

time to buy

[DarkHorse]

Yep fair comment mate and noted but OTOH just for the sake of a debate and comparison, AIR are expanding their operations and expensing much of the cost in doing so on new routes and growing profit at 100% and are on about half the PE. Perhaps its simply that the market is underwhelmed by 20% underlying profit growth given the strength of the tailwinds ?

I hold both AIR and THL and I'm more bullish on the later. Being an RV business with high marginal costs of meeting excess demand, it's less able to quickly leverage increased demand into multiplied profits. However they operate in a somewhat less cyclical/less competitive industry in the medium-long term and have more room for both organic growth and earnings accretive acquisitions.

[noodles]

Yep fair comment mate and noted but OTOH just for the sake of a debate and comparison, AIR are expanding their operations and expensing much of the cost in doing so on new routes and growing profit at 100% and are on about half the PE. Perhaps its simply that the market is underwhelmed by 20% underlying profit growth given the strength of the tailwinds ?
Ok Roger, you bought up AIR. So I thought I might do a comparison.
Given the level of debt and large depreciation for both companies, I think EV/EBIT is the best way to compare.



FY16
AIR
THL


Market cap
3080
248


Debt
1026
75


EV
4,106
323


EBIT
806
37


EV/EBIT
5.1
8.6




At first glance AIR appears to be significantly cheaper. But I think we need to consider the abnormally low fuel price. In fact, a broker recently said the cost savings (on a like-for-like basis) is $363m for FY16. Now lets repeat the above table assuming FY15 fuel pricing (i.e. reduce EBIT by $363m).



FY16 (without fuel savings)
AIR
THL


Market cap
3080
248


Debt
1026
75


EV
4,106
323


EBIT
443
37


EV/EBIT
9.3
8.6



THL now appears to be cheaper.

I know this is very simplistic. AIR has dropped prices as a result of the fuel drop. But there is no doubt that a mean reversion of fuel prices is likely to leave little difference in the comparatives between the two companies. Then it is a question of which companies has better growth prospects. A regional player(AIR) or a global player(THL).

[sb9]

Good analysis there noodles as always.

And they're amongst the award too at Deloitte Top 200 last night for the following.

Best growth strategy: Tourism Holdings

[bull....]

The company was very explicit that the forecast included $2m of growth initiatives that were to be expenced. Without this, they would have been looking at 20% growth in NPAT. Their track record of conservative forecast means that it is likely to be upgraded.
It is also worth noting that Rob Campbell was buying at current prices.

market must seen your post price recovering nicely

[bull....]

acc selling some

[Sideshow Bob]

Country is buzzing with tourist, Chinese New Year not far off and no talk from our main cheerleader?

Are you still in Golden City?

[sb9]

I'm picking it'll be bumper FH for THL, they're just keeping it under wraps me thinks. I'm expecting the results to be solid!!! Happy holder...

[Lewylewylewy]

Anyone know when the next results announcement will come out of THL?

[sb9]

Anyone know when the next results announcement will come out of THL?

FH results announced on 23rd Feb before market opens.

[golden city]

Thl still my second biggest holding

[golden city]

It is looking good again. It looks like break out comming

[sb9]

Yep, looks for a break out just in time for results to be out soon.

[golden city]

Might be acquisition reveal

[sb9]

Hmmm, not so sure on that one. If so, some of beans would've been spilled out on the market at least with instos....

[Lewylewylewy]

Difficult to know exactly based on info from the media, as it can be "rationalised", then sensationalised :)

http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/industry_sectors/Tourism.aspx

Might be something of use to people there.

My gut (which does 90% of my share trades lol) says that THL should be a good one this year and I'll be cashing out after the dividend to take a chunk out of my mortgage (not due to lack of confidence in THL's future). My gut also advises investing in doughnuts, but that's usually the case after a light lunch - so DYOR before rushing out to stock up on doughnuts...

Noodles, you mentioned that THL is a global company. Where else do they have operations?

[sb9]

I'm pretty sure they've operations in AUS, US and UK from memory.