THL - Tourism Holdings

[vin]

Contemplating topping up, hmm

[golden city]

I will keep my for dividends. 60k dividends per year not too bad

[sb9]

Gosh gc, that might be more than what some of directors/executive team get in dividends ;)

[kizame]

I will keep my for dividends. 60k dividends per year not too bad

Far out GC thats impressive, Your money hard at work providing the funds for donuts.

[golden city]

I have taking back my original investment. This just the profit I kept there for dividends to cover my livings

[golden city]

So no risk for me

[winner69]

Far out GC thats impressive, Your money hard at work providing the funds for donuts.

One reason why you should be following gc into Intueri

[golden city]

I will keep doing what I do. Nzr is my largest holding at the moment

[golden city]

Intueri is my next venture

[kizame]

One reason why you should be following gc into Intueri

Are NOoooo! at least not yet,I have been watching but am staying well clear at the mo,falling knives and all that.

[golden city]

Iqe is high risk at the moment. Only small money to test the water

[sb9]

More blue skies today, love it.

[golden city]

Looking good

[golden city]

Breaking trend on the way

[bull....]

looking good :)

[sb9]

Looking pretty solid, one of few greens on market today.

[vin]

yep that and SCL

[sb9]

You might've just jinxed on SCL there vin, never mind.

[vin]

You might've just jinxed on SCL there vin, never mind.

Oops, topped up though. Looking forward to the 25th

[sb9]

Oops, topped up though. Looking forward to the 25th

Good man, it all be worth come 25th. I think we should probably put that on SCL thread.

[golden city]

feeling good about thl..., once breaking 2.40..., could go all the way up to 3

[warthog]

feeling good about thl..., once breaking 2.40..., could go all the way up to 3

Weather today:

Has been a warm night, and that warmth continues into the morning. Although there's a bit of blue sky, it could cloud over, but remain muggy, threatening to rain.

Might not though, so it could be a warm day. Sun might come out, in which case it will get hotter.

However, it has been known to rapidly cloud over, and suddenly get colder all of a sudden.

Indeed, sometimes we see hail in formerly quite mild temperatures, and the temperature at ground level drops like a stone.

[vin]

$2.40 is a nice figure, hopefully breaks thru

[Robomo]

Weather today:

Has been a warm night, and that warmth continues into the morning. Although there's a bit of blue sky, it could cloud over, but remain muggy, threatening to rain.

Might not though, so it could be a warm day. Sun might come out, in which case it will get hotter.

However, it has been known to rapidly cloud over, and suddenly get colder all of a sudden.

Indeed, sometimes we see hail in formerly quite mild temperatures, and the temperature at ground level drops like a stone.

Best analysis in this thread for many months!

[vin]

Go you good thing, keep climbing

[golden city]

Will creeping up slowly. Like it

[sb9]

Looking good for next week's results announcement, might be $2.50 by this time next week.

[babymonster]

Always good to see a new high

[sb9]

Looking very solid now might pop that $2.50 mark soon, two more trading days after today left before results are out on Tue.

[vin]

Thoughts on the SP potentially being already been factored in?

[sb9]

Bit hard to read this one, all I know is their first half is much better than second due to summer and holiday season which attracts more tourists.

May be noodles can throw some light on this one.

[vin]

Yeah that's a point.

Would be interested to hear goldencity & noodles thoughts too.

[Peitro]

I'll give you a preview vin. "Shares might go up"

[noodles]

Bit hard to read this one, all I know is their first half is much better than second due to summer and holiday season which attracts more tourists.

May be noodles can throw some light on this one.
The first half is historically weaker. The outlook is what I'll be looking at.

[golden city]

I am anticipated a good acquisitions comming

[Peitro]

Sorry should have said "Share up Mite go's"

[Kirk]

Dam should have held on. Oh well. When i did my own valuation i got a $2.80ish valuation that was when they announced that they were looking at so much from the current business and that they were looking at takeovers (only based on current profit and growth rates) . Goodluck to all holders especially GC who always gives good info

[golden city]

if a good acquisition announced with extra profit coming..., valuation could easily up to 3 dollar at current yield.., with low interest rate enviorment

[golden city]

also market takeover activities will increasing chances of another trying by sterling the biggest shareholder

[Balance]

if a good acquisition announced with extra profit coming..., valuation could easily up to 3 dollar at current yield.., with low interest rate enviorment

A turnaround story like RBD can keep chugging along year after year - good dividends and steady capital growth every year.

Tourism is booming out there so THL can expect to continue to benefit.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/77021261/hsbc-economist-upbeat-on-new-zealand-economy

[sb9]

The first half is historically weaker. The outlook is what I'll be looking at.

Thanks for that noodles, if airport results are anything to go by we can only expect better things from THL.

[sb9]

Pop.....$2.50 here it is :t_up:

[vin]

It's a beautiful thing.

[golden city]

2.80 is on its way

[sb9]

Someone got a big lot (85,000) at $2.55, is that you gc?

[golden city]

No. That order is to kept price down. So he can buy some more. It is a buyers order. More up to come

[sb9]

Once that big lot (83k) is cleared sitting at $2.55, then blue skies.

[golden city]

Very happy with my big holdings

[golden city]

Feel like takeover comming

[Peitro]

Feel like takeover comming why? large amount of turnover? because the price has dropped to a potential takeover level?

[golden city]

Stearling the biggest shareholder moving big holdings around. Last time it did that. Present takeover offers

[vin]

You topping up GC?

[golden city]

I topped up when it was at 2.17

[sb9]

Well, within 24 hours all will be revealed.

[Peitro]

TBH you can keep blatantly blindly ramping it, seems to be working...

[golden city]

time to reveal tomorrow morning.., expecting 8 to 9c dividends

[NZSilver]

Should be a goody

[Balance]

Market is certainly pricing in a goody result.

Confirmation and upgrade to profit outlook of $22m will firm the sp higher.

Let's also see how THL tracks against the strategic capital capital review (Aug 2015) :

The process is now complete and the Board would like to announce the
following outcomes:

o An updated dividend policy has been adopted. The policy targets a payout
ratio of 75-90% of annual Net Profit After Tax (NPAT). Consistency in
dividend levels is also a focus of the policy.

o thl believes it has significant balance sheet flexibility. The Board
intends to use this flexibility to focus on value accretive acquisitions,
either globally or domestically.

o thl intends to continue to use financial benchmark ratios consistent with a
Baa/BBB credit rating used by the recognised international credit rating
agencies as a guide for target debt levels.

o thl is targeting growth in NPAT to at least $30M in the 2019 financial year
from the existing businesses. The Board notes this is before any acquisitions
or greenfields development. The internal work completed through this
strategic review provides the basis for this goal.

o The Company is preparing to announce a number of new operational
initiatives at both the Annual Results release and Annual Meeting in
November. Whilst still in progress, these initiatives will increase revenue
and earnings, selling more services to rentals customers and vehicle sales in
the New Zealand market.

[Peitro]

NZX | MEDIA RELEASE
TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED (thl)
HALF YEAR RESULTS TO 31 DECEMBER 2015

thl increase forecast with positive half year result - NPAT up 45%
Highlights:
• NPAT of $8.2M compared to $5.6M prior corresponding period (pcp)
• Dividend declared of 9cps (partially imputed)
• Forecast full year NPAT increased to around $24M (up from $22M)

thl today released its half year results to 31 December 2015 with a Net Profit After Tax of $8.2M, up 45% on the prior corresponding period.

Chairman, Mr Rob Campbell, said, “We continue to see the business adapt as it delivers expected improvements in profitability and addresses areas of concern. There is always more work to be done.”

“We remain focused on the goals set at the Annual Meeting. We are managing our capital base effectively and can sustain the dividend payout ratio whilst pursuing the new initiatives for growth. The 9c interim dividend announced today (up from 7cps in the pcp) reflects this approach.”

“The strategic review conducted last year indicated that the business would look to grow NPAT to $30M by FY19 and we remain on track or ahead of that target based on current performance. The new initiatives are progressing and the business continues to explore acquisition growth options internationally which would be incremental to the $30M target.”

CEO, Mr Grant Webster, said, “we are pleased to update the year end forecast NPAT to around $24M, reflecting the positive operating environment for tourism here in New Zealand and overseas. The peak season is well under way and operating to plan. From a debt perspective, the company is operating well within its own benchmarks. We have changed the manner in which we report fleet capex spend to provide improved investor understanding of how we have created more flexibility in the business model. ”

The full results presentation and commentary is available on the Company’s website.

END
 

NZX: THL (Tourism Holdings Limited)
FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2015

This report has been based on the unaudited accounts which have been prepared in accordance with New Zealand equivalents to International Financial Reporting Standards (NZIFRS).

Current Year NZ$m; Up/down %; Previous corresponding period NZ$M

Total operating revenue $133.7M; up 20%; $111.4M

Operating profit before tax $13.7M; up 44%; $9.5M

Less tax on operating profit $5.5M; up 42%; $3.9M

Profit after tax attributable to members of the listed issuer $8.2M; up 45%; $5.6M

Earnings per share from continuing operations cps 7.2 cps; up 44%; 5.0 cps

9cps dividend declared partially imputed to 50%.

Record Date : 7 April 2016 (ex date 6 April 2016)
Payment Date : 14 April 2016

Authorised by:

[sb9]

Only one word for the results announced "STUNNING"....:t_up:

[golden city]

Just as happy

[golden city]

New valuation for me. 3 to 4 dollars

[golden city]

With growth rate at 20%. Pe need to improve to at least 15

[Lewylewylewy]

NZX goes up on oil agreements. Awesome result on the past year with good future prospects predicted for THL. THL gets onto the NZX list of 5 biggest decliners for the day - loses 2% :os

Go figure...

[Balance]

NZX goes up on oil agreements. Awesome result on the past year with good future prospects predicted for THL. THL gets onto the NZX list of 5 biggest decliners for the day - loses 2% :os

Go figure...

Relax, THL has been a stellar performer against the market since Jan 1st - up 14%.

Sp has priced in a very good result and it is simply market dynamics for some of the traders to take profits.

[sb9]

NZX goes up on oil agreements. Awesome result on the past year with good future prospects predicted for THL. THL gets onto the NZX list of 5 biggest decliners for the day - loses 2% :os

Go figure...

Must admit the market reaction this morning to THL results left me perplexed. Not sure if they're expecting something more than that.

Happy to hold for those juicy divvies and further earnings upgrades.

[vin]

nervous profit takers I guess, wouldn't surprise me if it creeps up as the week goes by

[sb9]

nervous profit takers I guess, wouldn't surprise me if it creeps up as the week goes by

Only two names comes to mind its either Milford or ACC selling I think, just a wild guess...

[bull....]

it has risen from 2.20 odd to 2.60 in 20 days before this announcement so it is no wonder profit taking will occur

[sb9]

it has risen from 2.20 odd to 2.60 in 20 days before this announcement so it is no wonder profit taking will occur

Agreed, however looking at the depth one can only assume someone creating bit of untoward selling pressure, figure that.

[NZSilver]

Just top up and carry on...

[golden city]

Good day to top up more

[sb9]

Watching with interest, looking to top up at right time.

[Beagle]

it has risen from 2.20 odd to 2.60 in 20 days before this announcement so it is no wonder profit taking will occur

This...and when a company only upgrades FY forecast by 9% ($22m to $24m) and the SP has risen 18% in anticipation is it really much of a surprise that there's a period of weakness ? That and Tourism can be, (cough, cough) cyclical...or so everyone keeps telling me on the AIR thread...

a 9% pullback to around $2.37 would appear to be a good entry point if it gets back that far.

[vin]

Yep watching intently, looking at topping up.

[Lewylewylewy]

I suspect that this will go as high as 2.60, then drop back down to 2.50ish after the dividend

[Balance]

This...and when a company only upgrades FY forecast by 9% ($22m to $24m) and the SP has risen 18% in anticipation is it really much of a surprise that there's a period of weakness ? That and Tourism can be, (cough, cough) cyclical...or so everyone keeps telling me on the AIR thread...

a 9% pullback to around $2.37 would appear to be a good entry point if it gets back that far.

Looks like the institutions are stepping up now after looking through the numbers and talking to the analysts and company?

[benjitara]

topped up this morning. their long term projections make the stock look 20-30% undervalued to me.

[sb9]

topped up this morning. their long term projections make the stock look 20-30% undervalued to me.

Good on ya, hope you got yours at the lower end of morning session.

[benjitara]

Good on ya, hope you got yours at the lower end of morning session.

I don't care to time my buys. long term investor based on fundamentals

[sb9]

it has risen from 2.20 odd to 2.60 in 20 days before this announcement so it is no wonder profit taking will occur

With continued selling pressure currently seller at $2.39 less 9c div, is the fair value $2.30 or less which is close to where it started originally from $2.20.

[vin]

Frustrating see this decline

[sb9]

Frustrating see this decline

Well, someone wants to take profit so I guess until they finish selling won't see much happening on the upside.

[sb9]

1
20
12:12:38 pm
235
468,200
$1,100,270
Off Market



I think we might see a SSH notice soon.

[vin]

Meaning an acquisition??

[sb9]

Meaning an acquisition??

No, its the big boys share holding changes (Substantial Share Holder - SSH) like instos ACC and Milford etc. Whenever there are moves of larger than 1% in their holdings they are required to file one of these with NZX.

[vin]

Ok im with ya, cheers

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/278336

There we've it, one of senior managers sold today on market 250,000 shares. So, I guess some of directors and senior managers might be realising some gains.

[sb9]

CEO Mr Webster also sells 250k shares at $2.35, explains the sell down to a large degree.

[drcjp]

CEO Mr Webster also sells 250k shares at $2.35, explains the sell down to a large degree.

Maybe they bought a beach? :-)

[BlackPeter]

Maybe they bought a beach? :-)

Maybe ... and while there might be plenty of legitimate reasons - directors selling always makes you nervous, doesn't it? Plenty of outstanding examples where this was the end of the golden run: PEB, ERD, and - at least temporarily SUM (after Norah sold) springing to mind.

[Beagle]

Agree its not usually a good sign.

[noodles]

Agree its not usually a good sign.
Directors and management have been selling shares whenever they get the chance (after the results) for the last couple of years. They were issued shares as part of employee incentives and as part of the merger (directors). Just look at the last couple of years of history. Grant sold a few last September at around $2.

I don't think they have been selling because they think the companies prospects were bad (as the last couple of years have proven to be excellent). I think they were selling for other reasons.

[sb9]

Directors and management have been selling shares whenever they get the chance (after the results) for the last couple of years. They were issued shares as part of employee incentives and as part of the merger (directors). Just look at the last couple of years of history. Grant sold a few last September at around $2.

I don't think they have been selling because they think the companies prospects were bad (as the last couple of years have proven to be excellent). I think they were selling for other reasons.

Totally agree there noodles.

They still hold plenty even after these sales, its only fair that they should be able to sell some to reward themselves for the stupendous job they're doing. I've absolutely no problem with that.

I think it's bit unfair to treat these sales along lines of other companies mentioned by blackpeter, not at all comparable in my honest opinion.

If if that's' the case, what about Rod Drury (sorry to bring you in here) selling some of his shares of Xero at its recent peak price?

We all tend to forget the fact that management are also human beings after all and they need money for variety of reasons, let's not be too harsh about that.

[golden city]

directors do need money too..., just like me.., I was holding large portion of thl before..., at around 2 dollar.., I forced myself to sell some to buy my lifestyle block.., if I had the extra cash.., I won't sell..a share ..,

[BlackPeter]

Totally agree there noodles.

They still hold plenty even after these sales, its only fair that they should be able to sell some to reward themselves for the stupendous job they're doing. I've absolutely no problem with that.

I think it's bit unfair to treat these sales along lines of other companies mentioned by blackpeter, not at all comparable in my honest opinion.

If if that's' the case, what about Rod Drury (sorry to bring you in here) selling some of his shares of Xero at its recent peak price?

We all tend to forget the fact that management are also human beings after all and they need money for variety of reasons, let's not be too harsh about that.

Look guys, I don't want to rain into the parade ... and what a bull run it was! THL had over the recent years a big turnaround. It is IHMO a healthy company with a good income stream - i.e. absolutely agree that comparing them in that regard to e.g. PEB and ERD would be wrong and unfair (and actually - I didn't do that, just pointed to some other examples where directors were selling while the market was still excited about their company ... just to sober up soon after

On the other hand ... THL is clearly a cyclical company (as anything else related to tourism) at what might be the top quartile of the cycle (but - who knows). At this phase in the cycle I would want to see for a fairly valued cyclical company a forward PE of below 10 ... and a historic PE (across the cycle) of say 12 to 15. What we have however is a forward PE of 13, a historic PE of 125 - and a CAGR (not that meaningful for a cyclical company) of 5.7.

Obviously - the market is allowed to price any company as it sees fit - i.e. I don't know, whether the bull run will continue. However directors / management selling could still highlight that they feel that the company is currently "fully priced". I learned it (in other companies) the hard way not to ignore their signals!

Discl: not holding ... and yes, I did miss the THL bull run;) (though nicely compensated by some others - you can't win every race ...)

[benjitara]

Look guys, I don't want to rain into the parade ... and what a bull run it was! THL had over the recent years a big turnaround. It is IHMO a healthy company with a good income stream - i.e. absolutely agree that comparing them in that regard to e.g. PEB and ERD would be wrong and unfair (and actually - I didn't do that, just pointed to some other examples where directors were selling while the market was still excited about their company ... just to sober up soon after

On the other hand ... THL is clearly a cyclical company (as anything else related to tourism) at what might be the top quartile of the cycle (but - who knows). At this phase in the cycle I would want to see for a fairly valued cyclical company a forward PE of below 10 ... and a historic PE (across the cycle) of say 12 to 15. What we have however is a forward PE of 13, a historic PE of 125 - and a CAGR (not that meaningful for a cyclical company) of 5.7.

Obviously - the market is allowed to price any company as it sees fit - i.e. I don't know, whether the bull run will continue. However directors / management selling could still highlight that they feel that the company is currently "fully priced". I learned it (in other companies) the hard way not to ignore their signals!

Discl: not holding ... and yes, I did miss the THL bull run;) (though nicely compensated by some others - you can't win every race ...)

THL wouldn't have been a company I would have invested in 5 years ago. Do they operate their business in the same way as they did 5 years ago, clearly not. Fleet reduction, fewer large competitors, diversification of products, flexifleet establishment, telematics. All of which are having/ or will have a desired effect on their profit levels. Yes thl is a cyclical company and you need people to be visiting nz to have the opportunity for them to utilise thl but lets remember there are a number of developing nations that have ever-increasing numbers of middle class families. India a massive untapped market, China increasing...

[vin]

So far so good, be interesting to see where the day ends.

[noodles]

LWhat we have however is a forward PE of 13, a historic PE of 125
The forward pe=11.14

eps= 24,000,000/113,846,527= 21.1c


pe = 2.41/.211 = 11.4

[BlackPeter]

The forward pe=11.14

eps= 24,000,000/113,846,527= 21.1c


pe = 2.41/.211 = 11.4

Hi noodles,

not that it really matters .. but P/E and particularly forward PE are obviously volatile numbers moving with SP and assumptions. They are only "right" at a certain point in time, and if you have a guaranteed forecast (which I haven't seen yet).

I used the (as per 4traders ...) at that stage consensus earnings estimate of 19.6 cts per share and as SP $2,54 (which was true not too long prior to my original post). But yes, you are right - they upgraded by now their new earnings estimate up to 21.2 cts - moving the forward PE closer to your number.

Doesn't matter too much - I think the more important question is - will THL earnings and revenue keep climbing in the mid and long term (turning it into a real growth company) - or will they plateau as long as the current tourism bubble stays inflated and moving after deflation into the next cyclical low.

If I knew the answer to questions like that, I would be rich (which I am not ...) - what is your view - and why?

[noodles]

Hi noodles,

not that it really matters .. but P/E and particularly forward PE are obviously volatile numbers moving with SP and assumptions. They are only "right" at a certain point in time, and if you have a guaranteed forecast (which I haven't seen yet).

I used the (as per 4traders ...) at that stage consensus earnings estimate of 19.6 cts per share and as SP $2,54 (which was true not too long prior to my original post). But yes, you are right - they upgraded by now their new earnings estimate up to 21.2 cts - moving the forward PE closer to your number.

Doesn't matter too much - I think the more important question is - will THL earnings and revenue keep climbing in the mid and long term (turning it into a real growth company) - or will they plateau as long as the current tourism bubble stays inflated and moving after deflation into the next cyclical low.

If I knew the answer to questions like that, I would be rich (which I am not ...) - what is your view - and why?

I don't think they are dependent on a continuation of the NZ tourism boom to grow. There are many initiatives to grow eps underway. But I think the key ones are:
1. Increasing the amount of revenue per customer by making money when the customer is actually in the campervan. E.g. A side trip to Waitomo
2. Increasing geographies. E.g New office in Seattle to service Canada
3. Increasing ROCE by holding onto campervans for only a season ( or UK and NZ season)

The company has a target NPAT of 30m by 2019. It was flagged in the recent result that they are likely to achieve this earlier.
They have also stated that they are looking at acquisitions.

[Lewylewylewy]

Data is showing that 2015 was a bumper year (as we all know), but 2016 is looking similar so far:

http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/international-visitor-arrivals-jan-16.aspx

(The PDF download on the right hand side, page 8). I estimate the SP to peak between $2.60 - $2.80 this year (likely closer to the lower end of that bracket).

[Peitro]

Data is showing that 2015 was a bumper year (as we all know), but 2016 is looking similar so far:

http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/international-visitor-arrivals-jan-16.aspx

(The PDF download on the right hand side, page 8). I estimate the SP to peak between $2.60 - $2.80 this year (likely closer to the lower end of that bracket).

Growth from China is impressive.

7926

2015 was a good year, but doesn't even compare to the growth seen across the board in 2016.

2017 Lions tour is going to provide a bumper year with a huge influx in the typical off season, looking very positive in the medium term...

[sb9]

Looks like a big lot went through, 347,304 shares transacted off-market at $2.41.

[Lewylewylewy]

Is most of the revenue brought from NZ, rather than the UK / US business? In which case, that's great. I was just using the numbers as an indicator of general tourism to see whether people are spending money on tourism.

[Peitro]

not disagreeing with you at all Lewy- emphasizing the growth in 2016

[sb9]

Looks like another big lot traded off-market in last little while. I think it's on the move...

[vin]

Looks like it, hope the momentum carries on today. Pushing through $2.50?

[sb9]

Looks like it, hope the momentum carries on today. Pushing through $2.50?

The 2.47 seller has gone for now, next ask is at 2.50 with bidder at 2.47.
Lets see if it can crack that 2.50 mark.

[vin]

There you go sb9

[sb9]

There you go sb9

We're on the move vin, take a look at trading depth.

[vin]

Yep looking good. Just need SCL to play catchup ;)

[golden city]

Happy holder. Looking to break 2.60. Could be on its way to catch up 3 dollar

[Peitro]

Feels like 1999 all over again...

[sb9]

Good Volume and up 7cents..

PS - this is crazy THL up 7c, SCL up 7c and TIL up 7c all on same day. Too much of a coincidence, think I need a drink right now...

[golden city]

Haha. Good day

[vin]

Yeah, its freaky. It's clearly a race:t_up:

Just wished I held onto my TIL :(!!!

[sb9]

BOOM!!! $2.60 here it is, noticed big lot went through in the last few minutes.

[sb9]

BOOM!!! $2.60 here it is, noticed big lot went through in the last few minutes.



35
2:36:00 pm
260
500,000
$1,300,000
Off Market




There it is that big trade!!!

[fiasco]

Bugger, my sell order went through at 2.60, was not expecting it to happen anytime soon!

[golden city]

Looking real good

[golden city]

Takeover still my mind

[golden city]

With that sort the volume went through with top price. Indicating still well trending up

[sb9]

With that sort the volume went through with top price. Indicating still well trending up

Yeah, another 540k shares traded at 260 off market after close on Friday. Might see that $3 mark soon.

[golden city]

Yes. Right on track

[Peitro]

Significant volume being traded at the $2.60 level today and buy orders pushing this even higher?

The 9c dividends are still a month away, a bit early for the divi chasers....

[sb9]

Significant volume being traded at the $2.60 level today and buy orders pushing this even higher?

The 9c dividends are still a month away, a bit early for the divi chasers....



5
17
11:13:15 am
260
471,765
$1,226,589
Off Market



Another big off-market trade, think its more than divvy hunters driving this currently.

Something's cooking!!!

[golden city]

it is too early for dividend investor to react..., must be something going on

[babymonster]

i heard rumour that it's either a major shareholder is accumulating or a new major shareholder is coming on board

[Gunny]

I got in at 2.41 recently however with 8,000 I am not the new major shareholder. Although the investment is major for me. Happy with the almost 10% increase over the last few weeks.

Tempted to reduce my AIR a bit and buy a few more THL, CAV or ATM all of which I already hold along with others. Roger may scream at me over selling AIR at less than $2.80 but at an average cost of $2 I would still be on top.

Gunny

[Cricketfan]

Ouch, anyone else see the segment on Story just now? Some THL campervans in pretty shoddy condition.

[Peitro]

Jeez was that THL, saw the promo and assumed it was some cheapo outfit :( looked horrendous

[Cricketfan]

Jeez was that THL, saw the promo and assumed it was some cheapo outfit :( looked horrendous

Yes, Mighty Campers (http://www.mightycampers.co.nz/) who are owned by THL. The poor English couple went through about 5 campervans all of which had really bad problems.

[sb9]

i heard rumour that it's either a major shareholder is accumulating or a new major shareholder is coming on board

Another reasonably big turnover day, should see a SSH sooner.

[golden city]

A good problem To have at the moment

[Peitro]

Managed to catch the story on "Story"

Negatives -Systemic failure in several internal controls and procedures during the busiest part of the year.

Positives - Half the issue was that there was no quality replacements available as the fleet was entirely booked out.

[skid]

Managed to catch the story on "Story"

Negatives -Systemic failure in several internal controls and procedures during the busiest part of the year.

Positives - Half the issue was that there was no quality replacements available as the fleet was entirely booked out.

Ive seen a few failures regarding company owned camper vans ...but water leaking in several places through the roof is not one of them..

[bull....]

reaching my target mentioned earlier on thread

[Peitro]

As expected, stellar season continued in Feb...

Holidaymakers help drive highest visitor arrivals for a February month

The 373,400 overseas visitor arrivals to New Zealand in February 2016 was the highest for a February month. They were up 29,900 (9 percent) from February 2015. This increase was helped by 2016 being a leap year, with 9,200 arrivals on 29 February.

Visitor arrivals by country of residence
The biggest changes in visitors by country of residence between February 2015 and 2016 were in arrivals from:

Australia (up 14,800 to 122,100)
the United Kingdom (up 3,600 to 37,100)
Korea (up 2,800 to 8,800)
Germany (up 2,600 to 15,600)
Japan (up 1,900 to 11,400)
China (down 2,800 to 53,200).
The timing of the Chinese New Year (early February) led to more visitors from China in January 2016, and fewer in February. Combining visitor arrivals from China for January and February shows 12,400 more arrivals in 2016 (94,000) than in 2015 (81,600).

Visitor arrivals by travel purpose
The biggest changes in visitors by travel purpose between February 2015 and 2016 were in arrivals for:

holidays (up 18,000 to 212,400)

[Lewylewylewy]

No matter what people come to NZ for, work, study, lifestyle, tourism or tourism... They're going to use tourism facilities

[sb9]

Seem as though the sp has become stagnant at $2.65, needs a bit of nudge.

[Peitro]

Last year after we got the interim results in March, we had to wait until April to get a profit upgrade.

Might have to wait a few weeks to get a nudge :(

[Lewylewylewy]

How many people here are planning to sell down after the dividend, I wonder?

[golden city]

not me..i am holding it firm

[sb9]

No plans to sell here either.

Got a little nudge this morning up 1c....

[vin]

Any thoughts on movement of SP post divi announcement? And CPS predictions?

[sb9]

Big volume day today, one more day before it goes ex-div.

[Gunny]

No plans to sell mine ex divi either.

From current sell and buy side seems may hold reasonably well. We shall see, will be interesting to watch.

Gunny

[babymonster]

not many buying lately....

[Peitro]

Don't worry about that, not many selling either :)

The shoulder season has continued to have impressive numbers following on from the bumper summer...

They had to revise upwards last year at the end of April, if this happens along with another OCR cut, there will be action a plenty at the end of the month.

[vin]

happy holding

[Arbroath]

Target is $3 for me next few months. Think THL is a candidate to get back into the NZX50 at next rebalancing based on free float and market cap. It ranks inside top 50 but might have an issue with liquidity criteria.

[noodles]

Target is $3 for me next few months. Think THL is a candidate to get back into the NZX50 at next rebalancing based on free float and market cap. It ranks inside top 50 but might have an issue with liquidity criteria.
Edison have a $3.14 price target
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/tourism-holdings5/preview/#js

[golden city]

sounds good...keep adding when low comes

[sb9]

Edison have a $3.14 price target
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/tourism-holdings5/preview/#js

Not much of an action since going ex-div last week. Need bit of new news to push along. In the meantime enjoy those divvies coming along on 14th.

[Peitro]

NZ guest night rise for 23rd straight month as tourism breaks new records

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/732aa7c1/nz-guest-night-rise-for-23rd-straight-month-as-tourism-breaks-new-records.html

[sb9]

Noticed big volume gone through in the last few minutes at $2.60.....

[sb9]

Noticed big volume gone through in the last few minutes at $2.60.....

Another day someone quietly nibbling away all on offer at 2.60....

[sb9]

1

15

12:43:22 pm

255

1,886,126

$4,809,621

Off Market




Big volume traded off-market again, someone is keen. Should see a SSH sooner...

[Peitro]

is THL far off joining the nzx50?

[sb9]

is THL far off joining the nzx50?

I doubt if they are eligible for NZX 50 yet.

[Arbroath]

Last year THL gave us yet another profit upgrade on 30/4/15 despite having upgraded at their interim also. I'd like to see similar this year, even if only small - something like "at least $25m NPAT" up from $24m interim forecast. They will know pretty firmly now where they are at with only 10 weeks of the FY left and strong forward bookings which give a high degree of clarity. Maybe next week?

[Peitro]

Considering the strong shoulder season numbers/weather, I wouldn't be surprised. Plenty of tourists / THL campervans over on the westcoast last weekend.

[vin]

I heard news somewhere about 20000 chinese coming in over a short period of time, this year I think. Unsure of source

[sb9]

Last year THL gave us yet another profit upgrade on 30/4/15 despite having upgraded at their interim also. I'd like to see similar this year, even if only small - something like "at least $25m NPAT" up from $24m interim forecast. They will know pretty firmly now where they are at with only 10 weeks of the FY left and strong forward bookings which give a high degree of clarity. Maybe next week?

I'm thinking may be next week or tomorrow being last working day of April. Trading in last few weeks been pretty steady with decent volume too, suggests someone is accumulating....

[Peitro]

That's a Bingo - Price sensitive announcement right on cue

THL - Investor Presentation and Outlook Update
29 April 2016

"With the peak southern hemisphere season over, thl advises that it will meet and likely to some extent exceed its earlier guidance for FY16 of around $24M Net Profit after Tax.

In addition it has brought forward the date for achievement of the high level goal of achieving $30M Net Profit after Tax (NPAT) to FY18, from FY19."

[bull....]

bringing forward 30m target a positive, they obviously see no slow down on the horizon for tourism

[Arbroath]

Last year THL gave us yet another profit upgrade on 30/4/15 despite having upgraded at their interim also. I'd like to see similar this year, even if only small - something like "at least $25m NPAT" up from $24m interim forecast. They will know pretty firmly now where they are at with only 10 weeks of the FY left and strong forward bookings which give a high degree of clarity. Maybe next week?

I'll claim a moral victory even though they didn't wait until next week to give us the good news. The outlook certainly justifies a $3+ share price imho. At $3.00 that is 11.5 times FY18 earnings if they stay the course and between now and then you'll likely receive about 40-45cps in dividends.

[Peitro]

The timing of the Lions tour is absolute gold for THL, coming right in the middle of the off season. Last lions tour, campers were everywhere...

[sb9]

I'll claim a moral victory even though they didn't wait until next week to give us the good news. The outlook certainly justifies a $3+ share price imho. At $3.00 that is 11.5 times FY18 earnings if they stay the course and between now and then you'll likely receive about 40-45cps in dividends.

Give you that Arbroath, I'll take the silver for that.

On the subject matter though...its a big :t_up::D for me. Should see it in the $3 range very soon.

Wonder where is our friend gc these days??? very quiet, c'mon gc...

[sb9]

Also, appreciate noodles thoughts around the trading update..

[golden city]

Looking good. I am busy with building project my friends. But very happy with my holding.

[golden city]

Valuation 4.50 2018 my friend

[golden city]

Can't complain much. With all holdings performing well. Cav. Ohe. Thl. Nzr. Hiccup abit. But should comming back well

[LAC]

Valuation 4.50 2018 my friend

Pretty bold call. I am valuing it at $3.92 @2018

[noodles]

Also, appreciate noodles thoughts around the trading update..
The update is pretty much in-line with the recent Edison research
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/tourism-holdings5/preview/

They have a DCF valuation of 3.14. So still some value left.

[Raz]

Happy to hold my large parcel for longer..the upside though only partially offsets the rising cost and inconvenience to travel now in my own country at peak times.

[sb9]

The update is pretty much in-line with the recent Edison research
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/tourism-holdings5/preview/

They have a DCF valuation of 3.14. So still some value left.

Thanks for that noodles, this is now firmly in the bottom draw...

[sb9]

1
11
1:21:17 pm
255
19,094,290
$48,690,440
Off Market



Something's up.....thoughts from THL advocates pls, another Chinese interest like Scales perhaps???

[Jinx]

1
11
1:21:17 pm
255
19,094,290
$48,690,440
Off Market



Something's up.....thoughts from THL advocates pls, another Chinese interest like Scales perhaps???

Agreed, that's a really, really weird transaction 5.5% lower then current market price

[golden city]

What is going on. Sterling selling

[Balance]

Agreed, that's a really, really weird transaction 5.5% lower then current market price

Exactly same number of shares owned by Sterling Grace.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/276935

sb9 could well be right - shares sold to a strategic buyer and now, going up. Same thing happened with Scales.

[Balance]

1
11
1:21:17 pm
255
19,094,290
$48,690,440
Off Market



Something's up.....thoughts from THL advocates pls, another Chinese interest like Scales perhaps???

Hope it's not a prelude to a full takeover offer.

THL has escaped many a times from such a fate and it has been good for the market that we have had the stock around to get meaningful exposure to the tourism sector.

[sb9]

Agreed, that's a really, really weird transaction 5.5% lower then current market price

Large lots do transact at a slightly better negotiated price, we're talking about $49 Ml here.

[golden city]

I think takeover looming

[black knat]

Just been offered shares by my broker - so not a takeover.

[Peitro]

Yeah hopefully not a takeover... Want the income from this long term

[sb9]

I think takeover looming

Could well be...thanks balance also.

[sb9]

Just been offered shares by my broker - so not a takeover.

What price? if you don't mind...

[Balance]

Large lots do transact at a slightly better negotiated price, we're talking about $49 Ml here.

SSH has to come out soon.

[Balance]

Just been offered shares by my broker - so not a takeover.

If they offer u at $2.55, there's a nice arbitrage to make!

[golden city]

Normally in this situation if not takeover. Price won't up

[golden city]

If they got that much shares dump on market. Price normally goes down

[Arbroath]

It is a sell down by Sterling Grace Capital Mgmt - they held exactly that number of shares that were crossed. Opens up the register further.

[Jinx]

on market.

It was an off market transaction

[Balance]

It was an off market transaction

That's how off-market works.

Broker shops the line around and allocates to buyers who are interested, then do crossing.

It then makes sense that the crossing is done at below market but it is surprising that the sp has held up. Normally those who get the shares at $2.55 will go for an arbitrage profit.

[Peitro]

Should be a bit of selling pressure in the months ahead then... Ah well, at least it might help pass liquidity thresholds =]

[sb9]

3
26
2:33:30 pm
272
10,000
$27,200
Off Market


4
25
2:32:17 pm
272
20,000
$54,400
Off Market


5
24
2:14:41 pm
272
10,000
$27,200
Off Market


6
23
2:14:11 pm
272
25,000
$68,000
Off Market



Decent amount of off-market trades at 272 post that big transaction. Good sign.

[black knat]

What price? if you don't mind...

$2.55..... which I think you will find is that same as the large cross.

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/281956

Looks like Milford got 5mln of them.

[Balance]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11635718

The boom set to continue.

Let's hope the operators here do not kill the goose that lays the golden eggs with ever increasing prices - tourists from Asia are courted actively by other countries and as Hong Kong has experienced, they can go elsewhere is prices and services are unacceptable.

[Hectorplains]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11635718

The boom set to continue.

Let's hope the operators here do not kill the goose that lays the golden eggs with ever increasing prices - tourists from Asia are courted actively by other countries and as Hong Kong has experienced, they can go elsewhere is prices and services are unacceptable.

Very true...and just about everywhere else is closer too. NZ's lower dollar (than 2012 - 15) does moderate that cost though.

[Balance]

Very true...and just about everywhere else is closer too. NZ's lower dollar (than 2012 - 15) does moderate that cost though.

That is true but is also a problem with NZ tourism businesses over the decades - they treat a lower NZ$ as a windfall rather than pass the savings onto customers/tourists, and then howl like deprived spoilt brats when the exchange rates go up.

[Lewylewylewy]

I don't think exchange rates effect tourism volumes, personally. You don't go on holiday to somewhere because it's currently economically preferable. You go because you want to. For example you might go to NZ because you've always wanted to visit, or go to France for the romance, or go to China to see the wall, etc.

Once you get there, you worry about what you can afford. Typically people spend because the alternative is to do nothing on your holiday, which would be dumb after paying so much to get there in the first place.

That's why tourist traps can charge so much, and that's why it's called a tourist trap.

Agreed some people may go to a place because it's cheap there, but that isn't new Zealand's market and we wouldn't want to compete in that way.

JMO ;)

[NZSilver]

I'd agree somewhat but I often heard when Europe was in the crapper people saying it was a great time to go as it was cheap! And I knew a few people who did go for that reason, or prioritised a euro trip. Also heaps of people head to South East Asia because it's cheap.

[sb9]

Looks like Sterling shares have found place, no more selling pressure blue skies ahead. Screen shot back to trading update on Friday 29th Apr.

[Balance]

Looks like Sterling shares have found place, no more selling pressure blue skies ahead. Screen shot back to trading update on Friday 29th Apr.

Institutions like Milford who have been accumulating for a while do not take the placement at $2.55 for a quick flick, one guesses.

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/281956

Looks like Milford got 5mln of them.

They've balance, as per my quote from the other day.

[sb9]

Just been offered shares by my broker - so not a takeover.

You be a happy man black knat, won't you if you took the offer from your broker at 255.

[black knat]

You be a happy man black knat, won't you if you took the offer from your broker at 255.


yea pretty happy - only got 50% of what I asked for - heavy scaling.

[vin]

$2.80. Go you good thing

[sb9]

$2.80. Go you good thing

:t_up: good volume too, $3 here we come....

[golden city]

Happy holder

[black knat]

bought another parcel yesterday to get the full size holding I had requested. happy now.

[Balance]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-tourism-growth-exceeds-industry-targets-track-reach-2025-goal-b-188852

Tourism growing faster than expected or planned - well ahead of growth rate needed to reach 2025 goal.

Don't you just need to have exposure to this sector? :)

[sb9]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-tourism-growth-exceeds-industry-targets-track-reach-2025-goal-b-188852

Tourism growing faster than expected or planned - well ahead of growth rate needed to reach 2025 goal.

Don't you just need to have exposure to this sector? :)

Absolutely, looking very strong with punters piling on...

[vin]

bought another parcel yesterday to get the full size holding I had requested. happy now.

Good man, wonder if it'll crack $3 this week. Exciting times

[sb9]

Good man, wonder if it'll crack $3 this week. Exciting times

If not this week, surely next week. Very strong trading today with sp inching higher and higher.

[golden city]

Looking real good. 3.50 short term target

[Peitro]

Nice little kick on lately, should be quiet on the regular news front until August. Hopefully we hear news about further acquisitions in the coming months.

Interesting to see tourism NZ has pretty much quit advertising the peak season as we are near capacity and is focusing on the shoulder seasons.

[LAC]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11638705

This can only mean good things for THL in the long term.

[sb9]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11638705

This can only mean good things for THL in the long term.

The picture says it all with so many campervans...love it :D

[heisenberg]

SP hovering around what I think is fair value at present, wouldn't mind picking up a few of these if they drop in price a bit

[Jinx]

"ongoing strength in tourism"
Only mention of tourism in this afternoon's budget, not a bad honourable mention.

Edit: That's wrong, will update with anymore interesting mentions of tourism.

Edit2:
"Tourism - additional funding for tourism infrastructure. This includes $25 million to upgrade the New Zealand Cycle Trail, and $12 million to help communities build smaller-scale infrastructure projects, like restrooms and carparks."

2 Million dollar increase in spending on "Marketing of New Zealand as a Visitor Destination"

"How Performance will be Assessed and End of Year Reporting Requirements:
An increase in the volume of visitors to New Zealand, contributing to an increase in the tourism sector’s contribution to New Zealand’s GDP:"

So pretty much gov spending multiple different ways to ensure that there's an increase in volume of visitors, in other words gov doing THL's marketing for them, free of cost :)

[sb9]

So pretty much gov spending multiple different ways to ensure that there's an increase in volume of visitors, in other words gov doing THL's marketing for them, free of cost :)

Couldn't agree more Jinx, music to ears :t_up:

Just need to stop that sellers at 287 to keep adding more on offer...

[heisenberg]

I like THLs prospects but there are a lot of sellers hovering around the $3 mark, 85k buyers to 240k sellers

[sb9]

I like THLs prospects but there are a lot of sellers hovering around the $3 mark, 85k buyers to 240k sellers

Yeah there's still lot of selling pressure as those who got some of Sterling's stake cheaply would like to lock in quick profit.

[Jinx]

Yeah there's still lot of selling pressure as those who got some of Sterling's stake cheaply would like to lock in quick profit.

Despite this with growth stats for tourism the way they are I have 0 worries.

[Jinx]

Interesting to see so many disclosures, top dogs selling?

[sb9]

Interesting to see so many disclosures, top dogs selling?

If you haven't picked up from y'day CEO Mr Webster sold 500K shares at 290 on 2nd June. Hence the weakness in sp in recent days I believe.

[sb9]

In the meantime, tourism boom keeps getting stronger...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11654138

[Jinx]

In the meantime, tourism boom keeps getting stronger...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11654138

Yep, that's why even with management selling some of their holdings I have no concern.
The sector has such huge growth

[Hectorplains]

Must be due for a Sharetrader 'acquisition imminent' announcement?

[Lewylewylewy]

A director wouldn't sell prior to an acquisition. Shane these shares are cyclical, otherwise I'd buy some more. I think they've got one more great year coming, then I don't know what.

[Cricketfan]

Seems to be quite a few directors selling down over the last few months. Something to be concerned about?

[Jinx]

Seems to be quite a few directors selling down over the last few months. Something to be concerned about?

$1.10 to $2.70 in two years, hardly surprising there is some profit taking.
Even if there is something to be concerned about which I don't believe there is, tourism numbers will continue to skyrocket which will continue to bring more revenue to THL.

Some more free amazing advertising for New Zealand out last week :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YDFH-8TBxvQ

[BlackPeter]

... tourism numbers will continue to skyrocket which will continue to bring more revenue to THL.


How do you know?

Tourism is a cyclical business - and what goes up will at some stage come down. Directors might see some indication for reduced forwards booking, but more likely they are just careful and know that no trend goes always just into one direction.

Maybe they even know why the lonely analyst in Yahoo finance values the share at $1.65 ....

Fuel cost will at some stage go up again (reducing overseas tourists)
The long awaited market crash (no - I don't know, when it comes, either) will reduce the tourism dollar in due course
Ecotourists might at some stage realise that NZ is neither green nor clean ... resulting in lower tourist numbers
Acts of terrorism related to flights might reduce tourist numbers ...

So, I think that THL is a good company, but currently more likely in the upper quadrants of its earning potential. Sure - this may continue for another season or two - who knows? However blind optimism is not always the best investment strategy.

best wishes ...

BlackPeter

Discl: not holding

[Jinx]

How do you know?
However blind optimism is not always the best investment strategy.


Well clearly I don't truly 'know' anything, the same way none of us 'know' the sun will rise tomorrow, but we all make assumptions based on previous information.

Here's the previous information we do know as fact, the New Zealand government sees tourism as a sector with huge positive impacts for the New Zealand economy thus why they are pumping money into advertising it (http://www.mbie.govt.nz/info-services/sectors-industries/tourism/documents-image-library/key-tourism-statistics.pdf) and the new budget continues to pump more money into tourism spending.

The number of tourists arriving in New Zealand has almost never decreased (2008-2009 they stayed at very similar levels) and in recent year's there has been HUGE growth (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/tourist-arrivals)
As global wealth increases tourism increases, there's clearly data that global wealth is increasing (like poverty rates decreasing) as well as that more wealth = more global tourism (I just don't quite have time to cite everything)

But the biggest driver is China, China's middle class is going exponentially as they move into becoming a fully developed nation. When I had the chance to talk to the associate minister of tourism as well as Key's right-hand man on China, both of their biggest pushing points were China and the growth potential in terms of tourism. Not to mention the 29% growth in Chinese visits to NZ last year (http://www.tourismnewzealand.com/markets-stats/)

I hope this answer suffices as to why my growth estimates aren't on 'blind optimism'

Best wishes,

Disc: Holding & Happy

[benjitara]

4 years ago when I started my current occupation I seldom saw a person of Asian ethnicity renting out a campervan at all. Now I'd suggest 15-20% of hires would be Asian during peak times. People go on about China being the tourism giant but India could be just as lucrative in decades to come.

I'm currently holding the stock. Will continue to hold as I have the business around 20% undervalued.

[Robomo]

Good informative post Jinx.
That explains my 40% profit since buying THL at $1.96 10 months ago. Overweight at the time in THL but the Tourism sector just had every indication of exponential growth.

[sb9]

http://business.scoop.co.nz/2016/06/22/nz-tourism-migration-boom-continues-in-may/

[noodles]

How do you know?

Tourism is a cyclical business - and what goes up will at some stage come down. Directors might see some indication for reduced forwards booking, but more likely they are just careful and know that no trend goes always just into one direction.

Maybe they even know why the lonely analyst in Yahoo finance values the share at $1.65 ....

I think your Yahoo finance data is wrong.
There are 2 reports out for THL that provide valuations (Craigs and Edison). Forbarr also does research, but does not provide a target price.
The Craigs target is 3.30 and was released on 17/6/16

There is a good interview with the Craigs analyst here. He describes the risks.
https://soundcloud.com/nbr-radio/tourism-holdings-catches-analysts-eye

The Edison research is here (target $3.44):
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=16249

[sb9]

I think your Yahoo finance data is wrong.
There are 2 reports out for THL that provide valuations (Craigs and Edison). Forbarr also does research, but does not provide a target price.
The Craigs target is 3.30 and was released on 17/6/16

There is a good interview with the Craigs analyst here. He describes the risks.
https://soundcloud.com/nbr-radio/tourism-holdings-catches-analysts-eye

The Edison research is here (target $3.44):
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=16249

I think that Craig's analyst is same guy that used to work for Morningstar.

[Peitro]

Quite disappointed, think today is going to set THL back as the UK market are the prime customers of THL.

Short term could sink to 2.50, will be a very interesting 12 months... Holding for the long haul

[Jinx]

UK market are the prime customers of THL.


Based on?
UK are the 4th biggest contributor to international arrivals

[BeeBop]

Based on?
UK are the 4th biggest contributor to international arrivals

dont know the numbers but would assume uk and Europeans are big customers of the campervan businesses

[percy]

dont know the numbers but would assume uk and Europeans are big customers of the campervan businesses

This time next year The British Lions will be touring NZ.
England have just won the series against the Wallybees,Wales showed some promise against The All Blacks.
I would expect Lions supporters will be thinking by adding some Irish and Scottish players to the mix, The Lions may topple The All Blacks.A once in a life time event no Lions fan will want to miss.
I therefore think THL and other camper van rental companies will be pushed to meet the demand.This will come after an already extended tourism season.

[BlackPeter]

This time next year The British Lions will be touring NZ.
England have just won the series against the Wallybees,Wales showed some promise against The All Blacks.
I would expect Lions supporters will be thinking by adding some Irish and Scottish players to the mix, The Lions may topple The All Blacks.A once in a life time event no Lions fan will want to miss.
I therefore think THL and other camper van rental companies will be pushed to meet the demand.This will come after an already extended tourism season.

Sure ... but just remember that travelling just got much more expensive for anybody who earns and holds pounds ... and nobody can spend more than they own and can borrow - and borrowing gets more difficult in uncertain times like this. Obviously - we both don't know how the Brexit game plays out (though I am not very optimistic for the Brits), but I can't really imagine that the pound will regain its earlier glory - and this will inevitably reduce British overseas tourism. On a side note - the British shot not just into their own feet - I would predict we have next year as well less European tourists coming to our (and other) shores ...

[percy]

For possibly a once in a lifetime event The Lions supporters will find the money.
I know amongst my friends, they plan a world trip when they retire.Some have already retired and done their travel,while others are yet to retire.Never once have any of them put off or delayed their trip because of the value of the NZ $.
Most of The Lions supporters are well heeled ex public school,who will be here,using THL camper vans.
I expect the demand to be so great some will have to bring their own!!..lol.

[winner69]

For possibly a once in a lifetime event The Lions supporters will find the money.
I know amongst my friends, they plan a world trip when they retire.Some have already retired and done their travel,while others are yet to retire.Never once have any of them put off or delayed their trip because of the value of the NZ $.
Most of The Lions supporters are well heeled ex public school,who will be here,using THL camper vans.
I expect the demand to be so great some will have to bring their own!!..lol.

Business opportunity for percy

Convert his mobile bookshop into a camper

Keep the literary theme and be an upmarket Wicked camper for the discerning old school rugger fan.