THL - Tourism Holdings

[percy]

Business opportunity for percy

Convert his mobile bookshop into a camper

Keep the literary theme and be an upmarket Wicked camper for the discerning old school rugger fan.

I think they will be looking for something a bit more upmarket than my L300.
It would convert more easily into a "wicked willie's."

[bull....]

good to see directors buying, although a sellers holding the price back at the moment so once they are gone should be off to the races my target al time highs 2.80

t/a did it again target was reached and I am exited and now thl is falling and company will be majorly affected by brexit I believe good luck holders.

[Peitro]

Jinx
Quote Originally Posted by Peitro View Post
UK market are the prime customers of THL.
Based on?
UK are the 4th biggest contributor to international arrivals

Not based on any data that I have seen, just observations at camping grounds over the last couple of summers in Otago. Only seeing a trickle of Chinese tourists using THL vehicles so far (two years ago there were next to none), Aussies tend to go for the smaller scale/budget camper options (juicy).

Lions tour will still cause a sell out of campers during the tour, but this will definitely impact the scale of demand and therefore prices over this period.

[Sideshow Bob]

Lions tour will still cause a sell out of campers during the tour, but this will definitely impact the scale of demand and therefore prices over this period.

Also at an otherwise quieter time of the year.

[Jinx]

Jinx
Quote Originally Posted by Peitro View Post
UK market are the prime customers of THL.
Based on?
UK are the 4th biggest contributor to international arrivals

Not based on any data that I have seen, just observations at camping grounds over the last couple of summers in Otago. Only seeing a trickle of Chinese tourists using THL vehicles so far (two years ago there were next to none), Aussies tend to go for the smaller scale/budget camper options (juicy).

Lions tour will still cause a sell out of campers during the tour, but this will definitely impact the scale of demand and therefore prices over this period.

That's a fair analysis & observation but I'd try to focus on the numbers more then personal experience. Loins tour will be very beneficial for THL and I'd still argue all of this brexit carry on won't impact profit margins very heavily. Although there's a chance UK tourist numbers will drop slightly the Chinese tourism industry will continue to make giant leaps each year.

[sb9]

Hmmm..that''s some turnaround from down 247 to be up to 265 currently!!!

[Cricketfan]

Glad that it's recovered post-Brexit. I decided to sell out and buy into SCL instead as the regular selling by directors is making me a bit nervous.

[Lewylewylewy]

... Loins tour will be very beneficial for THL...

I think a loins tour would be beneficial for me too, not sure my girlfriend would like me doing that though lol

[RTM]

I think a loins tour would be beneficial for me too, not sure my girlfriend would like me doing that though lol

Quite, I guess there will be three day break between matches. Perfect for my age group.

[sb9]

Noticed someone bulldozed that big wall at 275 in last few minutes...

[golden city]

Looking good.

[sb9]

Looking good.

You've been bit quiet these days gc, how's your build going on?

[sb9]

Someone keen to accumulate at 283 mark...



1
9
10:27:13 am
283
250
$708
Off Market


2
8
10:25:57 am
283
1,500
$4,245
Off Market


3
7
10:19:35 am
283
10,537
$29,820
Off Market


4
6
10:19:23 am
283
10,538
$29,823
Off Market


5
5
10:19:11 am
283
49,463
$139,980
Off Market


6
4
10:18:54 am
283
49,462
$139,977
Off Market

[golden city]

Very good thanks mate. Hot market in properties. Making good bucks too

[golden city]

Soon clear property portfolio. Back to stocks.

[sb9]

1
17
3:34:13 pm
284
64,336
$182,714
Off Market


2
16
3:28:00 pm
284
22,098
$62,758



3
15
3:27:39 pm
284
400,000
$1,136,000
Off Market

[macduffy]

I know that many of us don't rank brokers' targets highly so whisper it quietly, Forsyth Barr have initiated coverage of THL with a price target of $3.25.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11675363

[sb9]

I know that many of us don't rank brokers' targets highly so whisper it quietly, Forsyth Barr have initiated coverage of THL with a price target of $3.25.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11675363

Explains the recent large off market accumulations...

[golden city]

by looking at the volumes..,someone is accumulating big parcels.., we might see the annual result even better than the forecast .., sp jump over 3..dollar with increasing dividends to come..,

[sb9]

by looking at the volumes..,someone is accumulating big parcels.., we might see the annual result even better than the forecast .., sp jump over 3..dollar with increasing dividends to come..,

Seems accumulation may have finished by the looks, trading higher today...

[underworld]

Hi sb9, where can you see these off market trades? Can you share some light please? Thanks

[underworld]

"New Zealand's booming migration extended its run of posting new records in June, though economists say it may have peaked, while tourism numbers also continued their strong growth." http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11678602

[sb9]

Hi sb9, where can you see these off market trades? Can you share some light please? Thanks

Here's the link

http://stocknessmonster.com/

And welcome to the forum...happy days :)

[underworld]

Here's the link

http://stocknessmonster.com/

And welcome to the forum...happy days :)

Thank you very much sb9!!!

[sb9]

The magic $3 mark isn't too far away by the looks...

[benjitara]

The magic $3 mark isn't too far away by the looks...

$3.30 would be my magic mark at the moment given their recent guidance although the way things are going I wouldn't be surprised if they even surpassed their own profit upgrades.

[golden city]

It is become a pattern for the board to beat forecast

[sb9]

1
23
2:04:00 pm
295
44,067
$129,998
Off Market


2
22
2:01:54 pm
295
400,000
$1,180,000
Off Market



Could be just matter of time before we see that magic 3 in front of sp....

[underworld]

1
23
2:04:00 pm
295
44,067
$129,998
Off Market


2
22
2:01:54 pm
295
400,000
$1,180,000
Off Market



Could be just matter of time before we see that magic 3 in front of sp....

Only 3c away.....:t_up:

[benjitara]

Interesting future for the company. I hear fleet numbers going up strongly in the near future so hopefully they can turn increase in bookings into further profit growth.

[Balance]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/tourism-spurs-big-july-increase-plastic-card-spending-b-192716

Tourism boom continues.

[sb9]

Almost got to the $3 mark :t_up:, just 1c away...may be tomorrow

[golden city]

tomorrow will hit 3..

[sb9]

Trading depth currently looks pretty ominous...might surge past the $3 mark!!!

[golden city]

On its way to 3.20 I guess

[sb9]

On its way to 3.20 I guess

Now now gc, just slow down a bit if you would. I think the catalyst for strong open today is continued Tourism boom as per Balance post, expected OCR cut tomorrow and upcoming FY results.

[golden city]

looks well and truly on its way

[LAC]

Up up and away...
https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/287654

[bull....]

nice result

[golden city]

Still no update on acquisition. Otherwise. Looks all good

[sb9]

Divvies flowing nicely, can't complain....steady as she goes :)

[Balance]

Divvies flowing nicely, can't complain....steady as she goes :)

19c full year total dividend with increases likely in next 2 years at least.

Very yummy dividend yield for those who bought the stock 2 years ago when it was trading at $1.05 !!!!!

Dis. Not me unfortunately but close enough.

[Out to lunch]

Pretty well aligned with NZ's tourism story, its great having direct exposure to the tourism industry.
Hard not to be drooling over this stock based on MBIE's projections
http://www.mbie.govt.nz/info-services/sectors-industries/tourism/tourism-research-data/international-tourism-forecasts

[Jinx]

Only been in the game for a short while but it always amazes me how the market reacts to good news

[macduffy]

Only been in the game for a short while but it always amazes me how the market reacts to good news

Because it often overreacts to the prospect of good news!

[Ace]

Only been in the game for a short while but it always amazes me how the market reacts to good news


Because it often overreacts to the prospect of good news!

Yup...and also because it dismisses or verifies a lot of speculation made around the SP prior to the announcement.

[LAC]

Wow tough crowd, great result today yet SP down. Not sure what to make of it especially as they plan to hit the 30mil in FY18.

[see weed]

Anyone know ex div date?

[Jay]

6 Oct 2016 according to the NZX site and paid on the 14th.

[see weed]

6 Oct 2016 according to the NZX site and paid on the 14th.
Thanks Jay.

[Balance]

Wow tough crowd, great result today yet SP down. Not sure what to make of it especially as they plan to hit the 30mil in FY18.

Feeling happier today?

[golden city]

3.20soon looking good

[benjitara]

In a way their Mighway offering is a little bit like "disruptive business" and it looks like it has some legs. It's a win-win for thl if they can clip the ticket while filling some high season demand with vehicles they don't own.
I like the USA growth, I'd imagine they have some acquisitions in mind too. Overall, pleased with the report and a sound hold.

[LAC]

Feeling happier today?
Haha, was hoping to top up but off she went... regardless though, anything less than 3.38 is an accumulate for me:)

[golden city]

My target met so fast

[golden city]

Maybe need to increase to 4.40 next year

[sb9]

Looking pretty solid now @325, on par with my other favourite SCL at same price level..

[golden city]

Looking very good

[ohpark0119]

damn sold out 3.2 :( bought at 2.88.

[sb9]

Looking at the recent trading pattern over past few months after Sterling Grace selldown, bit more wide spread liquidity and may be case for inclusion in NZX 50 at next rebalance??

[Yoda]

damn sold out 3.2 :( bought at 2.88.

I used to do a lot of quick trades but ended up just coming worse off in the long run, Now I just try to keep calm until it hits the 50 MA or 100MA, or unless there is some bad news or the directors sell out like PEB a few years back.
I think I will be in this one for a while .............

My wife doesn't understand why our shares go down $1-5000 over night sometimes , but I have to keep calm, keep her calm, and look at the MAs.
Each to their own ..

[black knat]

As a matter of interest Yoda. Where the approximate 50 and 100 MAs. I still have my full holding from May and intend to hold for a while yet as I see tourism as having significate legs for a good number of years yet. Sensitive to the NZD though so the bad run for dairy has been good for tourist numbers.

[winner69]

I used to do a lot of quick trades but ended up just coming worse off in the long run, Now I just try to keep calm until it hits the 50 MA or 100MA, or unless there is some bad news or the directors sell out like PEB a few years back.
I think I will be in this one for a while .............

My wife doesn't understand why our shares go down $1-5000 over night sometimes , but I have to keep calm, keep her calm, and look at the MAs.
Each to their own ..

That's why you should never look at what your portfolio is worth in total - ok, maybe a peek once a year but no more than that

[Yoda]

That's why you should never look at what your portfolio is worth in total - ok, maybe a peek once a year but no more than that
Really? Now thats discipline. Thanks for the advise .

[Yoda]

As a matter of interest Yoda. Where the approximate 50 and 100 MAs. s.

Not sure i follow.... I was talking generally not just about THL. I don't intend selling any time soon either. I am hoping to get some more, but out of cash at the mo til the 20th . It does seem to have a nice steady climb to it , unlike many.

[Yoda]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1609/S00818/chinese-eye-nz-tourism-investment.htm
A couple of days old news but interesting . Im hoping SP will rise steadily.

[sb9]

Seems as though ACC stopped their selling and hence today's price reaction, plus penultimate day before it does ex-div...

[golden city]

Looking real good

[sb9]

Guess price getting adjusted today before it goes ex-div tomorrow to be back in the 330s range...

[sb9]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11723560

Nice plug in from Herald about growing tourism industry as whole with focus on THL with comments from CEO Webster.

[sb9]

Ok, third consecutive post from me, never mind though :)

Looks like bit of (higher) rerating going on this one...good volume and recovered all of divvy amount within 3 days, something up perhaps??

[smalltrader]

More good news at AGM on the 18th? Perhaps an acquisition (no harm guessing :))

[Scrunch]

Ok, third consecutive post from me, never mind though :)

There would be more posts if the dividend strippers on the air nz thread were looking at this stock!

[sb9]

There would be more posts if the dividend strippers on the air nz thread were looking at this stock!

Couldn't agree more...plot keeps thickening...



2
17
11:30:17 a.m.
335
200,000
$670,000
Off Market


5
21
12:04:16 p.m.
338
100,000
$338,000
Off Market


6
20
12:04:05 p.m.
338
500,000
$1,690,000
Off Market

[golden city]

Looking good

[winner69]

Looking good

looking very good

[golden city]

Must be some good news forcoming

[IAK]

Private campervan hire shaking up the traditional motorhome hire companies.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/85202693/Share-a-Camper-gears-up-for-summer-season?cid=app-

[mondograss]

Private campervan hire shaking up the traditional motorhome hire companies.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/85202693/Share-a-Camper-gears-up-for-summer-season?cid=app-

Glad THL saw this trend coming with Mighway then.

[iceman]

THL is very well positioned for ongoing growth in tourism here in NZ and in the USA. I believe it is a good share to partake in the ongoing tourism boom. The potential strengthening of the USD would provide a bit of benefit as well although most of the debt is in USD which negates it somewhat. I will e watching with interest whether the upcoming IPO of Appollo in Australia will have any side effect on THL.

[Jinx]

Has been said before but all THL have to do is not shoot themselves in the foot in the next decade and they'll see massive amounts of growth.

[sb9]

Divvy in the bank a/c, very happy :)

[golden city]

Very happy In deep

[JeremyALD]

Great share so far. Looking forward to the upcoming year. $4 is definitely on the cards within the next 12 months. Love the favourable feel from the annual report.

[Hectorplains]

I will e watching with interest whether the upcoming IPO of Appollo in Australia will have any side effect on THL.

Damn shame Apollo is Aust residents only. Looks like it'll be heavily oversubscribed. Offer is on a PE of just over 12. Can't see any negative in that for THL.

[iceman]

Damn shame Apollo is Aust residents only. Looks like it'll be heavily oversubscribed. Offer is on a PE of just over 12. Can't see any negative in that for THL.

Yes its a shame Hectorplains. To the contrary, I expect Appollo being listed may draw more attention to THL and this industry, not less. This is definitely a good growth industry to be in for the next few years, but of course with many risks (global) as any other investment

[sb9]

ASM today, just wondering if Blendy is kind enough to live blog this event...

[Blendy]

Hello team! Yes here I am, awaiting the meeting to begin. Quite a packed room! Somewhat in the dark though. And my complaint so far is the $24 parking fee at the hotel...

[sb9]

Hello team! Yes here I am, awaiting the meeting to begin. Quite a packed room! Somewhat in the dark though. And my complaint so far is the $24 parking fee at the hotel...

Am sure the refreshments and good trading update would make up for that hefty parking fee :)

[Sideshow Bob]

Hello team! Yes here I am, awaiting the meeting to begin. Quite a packed room! Somewhat in the dark though. And my complaint so far is the $24 parking fee at the hotel...

Brilliant! Await the afternoon tea report with interest and anticipation!! :t_up:

[sb9]

https://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/thl2016

Can be viewed online thro' above link...

[Blendy]

Great Chairman's review from Rob Campbell.
Market position considers 3 factors:
1. Open platform where global opportunities to realize value together exists. This is not currently set up and it is considered a business risk to take no action - "standing still is the risky option". Their global ambition is to essentially become the Facebook or Google platform for self drive tourism. No one else globally is challenging for this position, so the goal is to establish this.

2. Must become part of other's networks. Integration of their products must be as natural as running water for tourists.

3. Skilled and highly motivated people. 3/4milllion touch points annually with customers.

Change implementation plan to take on these goals,

[Blendy]

Sustainability being reviewed around health and safety, community and environment.

Prototype electric motor homes within6 months.

[Blendy]

Fy17;
$145 expentiture forecast
$50m intended on core fleet.
Acquisitions planned (nothing mentioned what it could be), but investment would be from existing funds

Guidance: $27.5-28.5m
Probably not the same rapid growth of div as this year, but still aiming to provide sustainsble return.

[Blendy]

Tourism thoughts: Need to work with government, need to be more open about data, celebrate success, embrace sustainability of all kinds.

"A new tourism paradigm" is where we are at.

Investing in future based opportunities.

[benjitara]

Listening into the meeting now.
Some pretty positive vibes from management.
Electric motorhome vehicle manufacturing got a interesting mention. NP guidance of 27-28 million full year with greater capex particularly on mighway...

[Blendy]

Question: what proportion of business comes specifically from Chinese market? And countries of origin data.

For example - waitomo has higher growth than actual visitors from China (?). And Lions Tour is beneficial but probably not as good as 2005 as the travel route is different. 2018 looks good though.

Not really the answer expected about country of origin data however.

[Jinx]

The most interesting thing from the meeting was the mention of self driving electric motorhomes. It's fantastic to see a business which has 'core growth' looking into the future.

[Blendy]

Debbie Birch - strong governance and capital markets background. 5 Boards!

[Blendy]

Christina Domecq - entrepreneur, understands the value of customer experience in this business.

[Blendy]

Kay Howe - industry based skills, motor home industry since 1978

[Blendy]

Yes the self drive motor homes concept is really interesting. I can't wait to see how that plays out, particularly as a marketing tool to align with other EV players.

[Blendy]

Query about Apollo group. I'm wondering if they are being mentioned as they're a future acquisition or major partnership target?

[Blendy]

Query about where are the British operations? There's no information. Expectation from shareholders to make acquisitions in that market. Request that a strong team for global acquisitions is established.

[Blendy]

The Chairman is very carefully explaining in general terms that acquisitions are definitely on the plan, and opportunities are frequently being examined.

It would seem that reading between the lines that something is coming but isn't available to announce yet.

[Blendy]

"We would be disappointed if within the next year there were no changes in the business from acquisitions"

[Blendy]

And that's it! A very positive vibe from the Board for a bright future!

[Blendy]

And the afternoon tea summary: mini pies and the biggest fancy cookie platter buffet I've ever seen! I nearly took a photo :)
(How do I add photos to posts?)

[sb9]

Very pleased with the meeting and comments from Chair and CEO.

Couldn't help but notice how chairman got stumbled on acquisition matters, looks like something's cooking and they're very close to finalising the details.

Overall happy shareholder and expect better things to come, may be sp with 4 handle by this time next year or sooner...

[Jinx]

(How do I add photos to posts?)

When replying to the thread, in the editing box theres a little picture of a tree :)

[Blendy]

I have to run off to my next meeting, so I can't stay and chat with the Board as I usually do. A shame, as they seem like they really know what they're doing, and that there's something cooking in the near future.

[Blendy]

And a bonus - parking was 'only' $12 instead of the advertised $24.
So now I've got $12 'free' dollars to spend... Or do I count it as profit against my shareholding??! 😉

[Yoda]

But SP SEEMS TO BE A BIT Disappointing ?

[benjitara]

But SP SEEMS TO BE A BIT Disappointing ?

The share price can be disappointed all it wants. The higher capex over the next financial year may be enough to put people off but as mentioned in the speeches the tourism cycle may have reached a new paradigm with a emerging middle class. I'll continue to hold on the strength of what I've heard and seen...

[sb9]

Big volumes on offer at sell side, especially at 335...

[Yoda]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1610/S00977/china-tourism-growth-set-to-accelerate.htm

[IAK]

Well the Irish win today should give a good boost to the Lions tour and hiring campervans lol.

[bull....]

all looked good to me, aquisition potential looks best in the us road bear add-on or tourism side as they seem to provide best return on funds.
Still see it as a growth and income stock, cheap as chips when a good aquisition is made

https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/294656

thought they would go usa

[Jantar]

Forecasting a 100% increase in NPAT within 3 1/2 years. Must be good for the SP as well.

[Beagle]

Forecasting a 100% increase in NPAT within 3 1/2 years. Must be good for the SP as well.

Got to be impressed with that.

[iceman]

Forecasting a 100% increase in NPAT within 3 1/2 years. Must be good for the SP as well.

An outstanding announcement. Couldn' t help topping up a bit more this morning. Appreciating USD surely will be helpful as well.

[IAK]

We have lift off 😀

[ShouldHaveHeld]

An outstanding announcement. Couldn' t help topping up a bit more this morning. Appreciating USD surely will be helpful as well.

Wish i had done so too!

[Jantar]

Wish i had done so too!
I managed to place a small order just before opening. Very pleased I did.

[iceman]

I managed to place a small order just before opening. Very pleased I did.

Same here and very pleased but I don't think it is too late to buy this one even now. Definitely looking good for next few years.

[Beagle]

Same here and very pleased but I don't think it is too late to buy this one even now. Definitely looking good for next few years.

Agree. SP follows earnings and current PE of circa 15 is very reasonable indeed for a company growing at the rate THL are ! Tourism stat's out today, (see link below) show tourism now growing at a record rate of 12% plus record level's of immigration. Those inclined towards TA will have a look at the chart which speaks for itself.
http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/migrants-tourists-continue-to-flock-to-nz/ar-BBxo1ri?li=AA59FU&ocid=spartandhp
Quite apart from that based on two trips to Queenstown this year I think congestion in the town itself is now chronic. You need a decent set of independent wheels / accommodation to get away from the massive hordes of people if you're going to enjoy our magnificent countryside now.
Disc: I snapped up a few on the open too :)

[IAK]

Same here and very pleased but I don't think it is too late to buy this one even now. Definitely looking good for next few years.

Great news. Topped up today as well.

[golden city]

I am super happy that I somehow ..topup some two days ago.., after it break the 3.40 marks

[Jinx]

With a new large acquisition in the US as well as a strengthening $US we are all very 'well positioned' as some would say. On top of the good news out of the US we have the Lions tour next year. THL looking like a very strong buy in my eyes.

edit - spelling

[JeremyALD]

With a new large acquisition in the US as well as a strengthening $US we are all very 'well positioned' as some would say. On top of the good news out of the US we have the Lions tour next year. THL looking like a very strong buy in my eyes.

edit - spelling

I guess the question is whether all this growth is already factored into the SP? It's currently 3.60 which is double what it was 18 months ago. It's certainly delivering the goods at the moment though.

[Beagle]

I guess the question is whether all this growth is already factored into the SP? It's currently 3.60 which is double what it was 18 months ago. It's certainly delivering the goods at the moment though.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/250931.pdf It appears this Director sees good value at these level's. 40,000 shares is a pretty reasonable sized endorsement and more than doubles that directors shareholding.

[Jantar]

I guess the question is whether all this growth is already factored into the SP? It's currently 3.60 which is double what it was 18 months ago. It's certainly delivering the goods at the moment though.I believe that continued NZ growth was factored into the SP when it was climbing slowly through the $3:35 mark. But that announcement about the USA growth has given new impetus. If the improvement in NPAT is even close to forecast then the SP should increase to over $6 by 2020.

The big decision will be what the future earnings are worth if the share is purchased today.

[JeremyALD]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/250931.pdf It appears this Director sees good value at these level's. 40,000 shares is a pretty reasonable sized endorsement and more than doubles that directors shareholding.

Thanks for sharing Roger, I hadn't seen this.

I bought some a few months back at $3.30, so considering topping up some more. I might wait until their next announcement, but definitely shaping up for a good growth investment. Added to this they pay an attractive dividend so it's all pretty smooth sailing at the moment.

[Beagle]

No worries JeremyALD.

Based on a profit forecast excl anomalous factors caused by low season of the new acquisition we are looking at profit of $29.2m according to their forecast which is 25.2 cps for Fy17.

What's a reasonable PE for this stock given they have a growth target of $50m for FY20 which represents a doubling of profit from FY16. ?

At present at $3.70 the stock trades on a FY17 PE of only 14.7. Still looks fairly low to me for a company that's starting to prove its capable of sustained growth.

Rob Campbell's doing a good job with this company.

[golden city]

everything looks on track..., jus need to be carefull a bit with the debts.., if they can reduce it quicker enough .. should be awsom if on targets

[golden city]

but from the merger they have done a few years ago. they should have enough experience to integrate this acquisition

[Beagle]

No worries JeremyALD.

Based on a profit forecast excl anomalous factors caused by low season of the new acquisition we are looking at profit of $29.2m according to their forecast which is 25.2 cps for Fy17.

What's a reasonable PE for this stock given they have a growth target of $50m for FY20 which represents a doubling of profit from FY16. ?

At present at $3.70 the stock trades on a FY17 PE of only 14.7. Still looks fairly low to me for a company that's starting to prove its capable of sustained growth.

Rob Campbell's doing a good job with this company.

Put my money where my mouth is yesterday and bought more at $3.70.

[iceman]

Great minds think alike. Did same 😀

[BlackPeter]

Hate to admit it ... but I thought this might be the last opportunity to get them for this price (my famous last words) and bought some as well. THL is one of these companies I always thought would be a nice company to hold, just a bit to dear ... and they just kept going up.

On the flipside: I did the same with FPH some months ago ... and the trend turned nearly instantaneously so lets hope there is no jinx ...:scared:

[Beagle]

You'll be all good BP. Fundamental's look great and so does the chart !!!

[see weed]

If Winston Peters cuts immigration by 50%, what effect would that have on THL sp?

[Xerof]

If Winston Peters cuts immigration by 50%, what effect would that have on THL sp?

Haha, clearly you know the answer to that hypothetical question see weed, or should we call you chicken little?

[Raz]

Haha, clearly you know the answer to that hypothetical question see weed, or should we call you chicken little?

All I will say is I would factor this in as a significant risk to consider from the politics to play out this year.

[Beagle]

If Winston Peters cuts immigration by 50%, what effect would that have on THL sp?

Not sure I follow you mate. I would have thought the vast majority of campervan rentals are to overseas tourists so a cut to migration as opposed to tourism would have very little if any effect.
You having some special sauce with the BBQ dinner tonight mate :)

[ShouldHaveHeld]

Not sure I follow you mate. I would have thought the vast majority of campervan rentals are to overseas tourists so a cut to migration as opposed to tourism would have very little if any effect.
You having some special sauce with the BBQ dinner tonight mate :)

My exact thoughts too. Unless we are missing something???:confused:

[Raz]

Not sure I follow you mate. I would have thought the vast majority of campervan rentals are to overseas tourists so a cut to migration as opposed to tourism would have very little if any effect.
You having some special sauce with the BBQ dinner tonight mate :)

I was thinking it was suggesting PR risk of NZ not being seen open to key tourist markets..who would know about the correlation...also migrants often are tourist before they settle..

[troyvdh]

..are things becoming "exuberant"..just saying....

[see weed]

Not sure I follow you mate. I would have thought the vast majority of campervan rentals are to overseas tourists so a cut to migration as opposed to tourism would have very little if any effect.
You having some special sauce with the BBQ dinner tonight mate :)
Yes, I was thinking the exact same thing after posting. Probably no effect at all:).

[Lewylewylewy]

In my opinion, I class THL as cyclic with a fast short term (5 years) upwards tend and a slow long term upward trend.

Because every time a recession comes along, they'll get clobbered. So there will always be buying opportunities.

[Beagle]

..are things becoming "exuberant"..just saying....


In my opinion, I class THL as cyclic with a fast short term (5 years) upwards tend and a slow long term upward trend.

Because every time a recession comes along, they'll get clobbered. So there will always be buying opportunities.

Flights have become cheaper and cheaper. Consumers are getting more and more bang for their buck in terms of international travel as new technology aircraft make it more efficient.
IATA predicts worldwide air travel with continue to grow for the foreseeable future at 5-6%. N.Z. is a relatively safe, unpolluted and uncrowded destination with spectacular scenery and sound tourism infrastructure.
Many tourists don't feel safe in many parts of Europe with the immigration and terrorism threat a real and present danger now and with much of the middle east off limits, China and much of Asia becoming extremely crowded and polluted all this plays into Tourism being in a long term growth trend for N.Z. Tourism currently growing at 12% this year up from 11% last year and about 10% the year before...spot the trend ? Exuberant ? You tell me what's a fair PE for a company growing the way THL is and with the target of $50m profit by 2020 ? Keep in mind the average market PE is about 18-19.

[winner69]

..are things becoming "exuberant"..just saying....

Troy me old mate - maybe euphoria exists
J
The form reads good. He form guide has 24% of tipsters picking it as a good bet in 2017

Looks a dead cert - and the odds are attractive / tempting as well

Just what punters want eh

[percy]

Further to Roger's post.
Huge tail winds in this sector.
Ageing baby boomers are big travellers.
Wealthy Asian middle class are big travellers.
THL,have found their "business model" in this sector,and are rolling it out in USA, and elsewhere ,successfully.

[winner69]

In my opinion, I class THL as cyclic with a fast short term (5 years) upwards tend and a slow long term upward trend.

Because every time a recession comes along, they'll get clobbered. So there will always be buying opportunities.

His thread started in 2007 when share price was $2.28 (shortly after rejecting a $2.80 takeover offer)

So THL done well since - up 66% in 10 years


Lewy - sort of cyclical eh

[winner69]

Roger said - N.Z. is a relatively safe country (sic attracts tourists)

How safe

http://mymodernmet.com/global-peace-index-2016/

As the author says about a few mentioned safe paces like NZ 'Or if you’re planning a trip, consider exploring these places on your next adventure'

Good eh - why NZ tourism growing faster than the rest of world

Don't forget AIR - hey need to get here

[Beagle]

Nice map Winner, thanks for sharing. Not many really safe countries to visit are there !

[Raz]

Nice map Winner, thanks for sharing. Not many really safe countries to visit are there !

That is for sure, so happy to be home...have to be so alert overseas and still it is an element of luck, friends were driving to the main airport to leave Paris and in the traffic the car ahead was car jacked..

THL has heaps of upside and reflects my largest holding on the NZX. Don't usually comment on this thread...follow this business very closely and have no concerns.

[Raz]

Roger said - N.Z. is a relatively safe country (sic attracts tourists)

How safe

http://mymodernmet.com/global-peace-index-2016/

As the author says about a few mentioned safe paces like NZ 'Or if you’re planning a trip, consider exploring these places on your next adventure'

Good eh - why NZ tourism growing faster than the rest of world

Don't forget AIR - hey need to get here

Wouldn't it be nice if the Goverement was no so free with access thou:-)

[Beagle]

That is for sure, so happy to be home...have to be so alert overseas and still it is an element of luck, friends were driving to the main airport to leave Paris and in the traffic the car ahead was car jacked..

THL has heaps of upside and reflects my largest holding on the NZX. Don't usually comment on this thread...follow this business very closely and have no concerns.

Many parts of Europe too risky now for many people's taste IMO and in others I've talked too. As you allude too, its not just the terrorism threat, (which makes all the headlines) its all the other crime that's increasing and the racial discord due to mass immigration. My biggest NZX holding too, great minds think alike :)

[winner69]

Many parts of Europe too risky now for many people's taste IMO and in others I've talked too. As you allude too, its not just the terrorism threat, (which makes all the headlines) its all the other crime that's increasing and the racial discord due to mass immigration. My biggest NZX holding too, great minds think alike :)

Think I'll be safe in Iceland next year?

[macduffy]

THL has been a great investment lately but RSI is now over 80, a level seldom seen without some retracement, in my experience.

[winner69]

THL has been a great investment lately but RSI is now over 80, a level seldom seen without some retracement, in my experience.

So many new punters getting on the merry go round and others adding to their haul = RSI over 80

Opportunity foe lewy to get some later in the month then

[Beagle]

Think I'll be safe in Iceland next year?

You're all good there mate. If you time it right Iceman might give you a personal tour :-) He tells me Icelandic airways are doing really well...must be something to do with clean green safe places !

[winner69]

You're all good there mate. If you time it right Iceman might give you a personal tour :-) He tells me Icelandic airways are doing really well...must be something to do with clean green safe places !

I was surprised how reasonable trips to Iceland from London return were by Icelandair were (NZ$350) - cheaper WLG / SYD and thats even after the exorbitant Heathrow departure tax.

[winner69]

This looks like a fascinating development for thl



The canonical travel geo database

• The Atlas mission is to build the world’s best travel geo-data tools and APIs. Atlas harnesses the power of artificial intelligence to create a new travel data ecosystem at scale.

• Atlas will evolve into a distributed marketplace for tourism listings and traveller insights, and the product that is best placed to power the data-driven future of travel in vehicle and voice.

• Atlas is ready to expand on the groundwork laid by GeoZone through major partnerships, and to unlock access to the broader tourism market in Australasia and the USA.

[Beagle]

You tell me what's a fair PE for a company growing the way THL is and with the target of $50m profit by 2020 ? Keep in mind the average market PE is about 18-19.

Okay so just to endeavor to answer my own question earlier today and acknowledging that the two companies are quite dissimilar in many respects but its interesting nonetheless to note that although Skyline Enterprises doesn't currently have a forecast in the market for FY17, stripping out property revaluations from last years accounts I see them trading at 17.1 times FY16's profit, based on mid point of current buy-sell quote. THL trading at 17.5 times historical FY16 EPS. 14.7 times normalized forecast FY17 earnings.

Barring a major exogenous shock I see the SP growing at least in line with earnings for the next few years.

[JeremyALD]

Up 4% today!

[winner69]

Thanks for sharing Roger, I hadn't seen this.

I bought some a few months back at $3.30, so considering topping up some more. I might wait until their next announcement, but definitely shaping up for a good growth investment. Added to this they pay an attractive dividend so it's all pretty smooth sailing at the moment.

Hope you been topping up jeremy - or better still backing the truck up as they say

[JeremyALD]

I made the mistake of wanting to wait for it to drop a bit before buying Winner (which it hasn't).

In saying that it's my second largest holding so I can't get too greedy. The odd thing with share markets is you always say to yourself "I should of bought more!" when it goes up instead of being happy you made a capital gain on your original investment lol.

[Beagle]

It isn't called learning the "fine art" of contentment without good reason ! I'm still working on my technique too :)

[percy]

As always I enter the new year "well positioned".
Only position I know.?.
Very comfortable with it.!..lol.

[ShouldHaveHeld]

I made the mistake of wanting to wait for it to drop a bit before buying Winner (which it hasn't).

In saying that it's my second largest holding so I can't get too greedy. The odd thing with share markets is you always say to yourself "I should of bought more!" when it goes up instead of being happy you made a capital gain on your original investment lol.

haha I think most, if not all.. has had this feeling!

[Beagle]

THL top pick in the 2017 ST competition. Hope all those that picked it have it in their real portfolio too :)

[Hectorplains]

A couple of 'insider' sales this year... Probably just dealing to the Christmas credit card bill.

[ShouldHaveHeld]

TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED (thl)
HALF YEAR RESULTS RELEASE DATE

Tourism Holdings Limited advise that the company’s unaudited six months results to 31 December 2016 will be released to the market on Tuesday, 21 February 2017.

About a month away :t_up:

[Beagle]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/88443782/more-chinese-visitors-abandoning-tour-buses-and-going-it-alone

Interesting stuff. Having been to Queenstown twice in the last year I maintain that if you want to enjoy escaping the tourist crowds you need your own wheels.

P.S. THL looks certain to be added to the NZX50 list during 2017.

[JMKC]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/88443782/more-chinese-visitors-abandoning-tour-buses-and-going-it-alone

Interesting stuff. Having been to Queenstown twice in the last year I maintain that if you want to enjoy escaping the tourist crowds you need your own wheels.

P.S. THL looks certain to be added to the NZX50 list during 2017.

Was added to the NZX50 back in December fyi.

[BlackPeter]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/88443782/more-chinese-visitors-abandoning-tour-buses-and-going-it-alone

Interesting stuff. Having been to Queenstown twice in the last year I maintain that if you want to enjoy escaping the tourist crowds you need your own wheels.

P.S. THL looks certain to be added to the NZX50 list during 2017.

Agree - however lets hope foreigners will be able to keep enjoying NZ in future on their own. More foreign drivers obviously means more accidents with foreigners involved (it's just a numbers game), and I see the self righteous hate brigades in this country stopping individual tourism if we are not careful. Every foreign driver bullied by self righteous idiots will reduce the attractiveness of NZ as a holiday destination.

And lets not kid us - NZ is a dangerous place to drive: We do have not just (compared to other "Western" countries) quite aggressive drivers, we tend as well to drive our vehicles (for most foreigners) on the wrong side of the road.

[percy]

Agree - however lets hope foreigners will be able to keep enjoying NZ in future on their own. More foreign drivers obviously means more accidents with foreigners involved (it's just a numbers game), and I see the self righteous hate brigades in this country stopping individual tourism if we are not careful. Every foreign driver bullied by self righteous idiots will reduce the attractiveness of NZ as a holiday destination.

And lets not kid us - NZ is a dangerous place to drive: We do have not just (compared to other "Western" countries) quite aggressive drivers, we tend as well to drive our vehicles (for most foreigners) on the wrong side of the road.

As some one who does a lot of driving I should point out just how dangerous some of these foreign drivers are.
It is the Asians.
We would not let in a serial killer,yet we let these murders in.
They do indeed drive on the wrong side of the road.They overtake on blind corners.I am scared stiff of them.
Following them I can pick them up a mile away,but when they come at you on the wrong side off the road on a blind corner,that is murder.

[Raz]

As some one who does a lot of driving I should point out just how dangerous some of these foreign drivers are.
It is the Asians.
We would not let in a serial killer,yet we let these murders in.
They do indeed drive on the wrong side of the road.They overtake on blind corners.I am scared stiff of them.
Following them I can pick them up a mile away,but when they come at you on the wrong side off the road on a blind corner,that is murder.

Yes I tend to agree, when they are on the wrong side of the road coming at you from a blind position you have limited options. Some posters are on here all the time, one naturally wonders if they get out to drive let alone live in the wider world and see the big picture.

[winner69]

thl being responsible here. Making sure the caves keep on glowing even though it affects income some days

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/323095/waitomo-caves-shut-'five-times'-due-to-high-co2

[BlackPeter]

As some one who does a lot of driving I should point out just how dangerous some of these foreign drivers are.
It is the Asians.
We would not let in a serial killer,yet we let these murders in.
They do indeed drive on the wrong side of the road.They overtake on blind corners.I am scared stiff of them.
Following them I can pick them up a mile away,but when they come at you on the wrong side off the road on a blind corner,that is murder.

Hi percy, this is a very emotional subject - and prone to irrational and unfair judgements. It is bad enough without throwing racism into the debate.

I agree that it is dangerous for any driver to change over night from driving on one side of the road to the other side. Any driver changes from time to time to "autopilot" and this is when you make a mistake if your default side to drive is on the other side of the road. I did drive for decades on the right side of the road, for decades on the left ... and am typically at least once a year in a country where they drive on the other side. I do know what I am talking about.

This is however in my view just a risk we need to accept unless we want to totally ban tourists driving on our roads (and with that any Kiwi who would want to drive abroad). Remember - all these agreements are reciprocal.

Nothing of that has to do with Asian drivers. Some of them are used to drive on the left (e.g Singapore, Malaysia and I think India), and they will not have more problems than any Kiwi driver. Some of them come from countries driving on the right side of the road - and they will have not more problems than any driver from continental Europe or the US.

If you observe on your trips a vehicle with an reasonable driver who looks caucasian - you don't know whether (s)he is a tourist, but you assume probably its a Kiwi. Could be however a continental European or an American.

If you observe on your trips a vehicle with an appalling driver who looks Asian - you don't know whether (s)he is a tourist or a Kiwi, but you just assume (s)he is a tourist. Could be however a third generation Kiwi.

See where I am coming from?

[percy]

Hi percy, this is a very emotional subject - and prone to irrational and unfair judgements. It is bad enough without throwing racism into the debate.

I agree that it is dangerous for any driver to change over night from driving on one side of the road to the other side. Any driver changes from time to time to "autopilot" and this is when you make a mistake if your default side to drive is on the other side of the road. I did drive for decades on the right side of the road, for decades on the left ... and am typically at least once a year in a country where they drive on the other side. I do know what I am talking about.

This is however in my view just a risk we need to accept unless we want to totally ban tourists driving on our roads (and with that any Kiwi who would want to drive abroad). Remember - all these agreements are reciprocal.

Nothing of that has to do with Asian drivers. Some of them are used to drive on the left (e.g Singapore, Malaysia and I think India), and they will not have more problems than any Kiwi driver. Some of them come from countries driving on the right side of the road - and they will have not more problems than any driver from continental Europe or the US.

If you observe on your trips a vehicle with an reasonable driver who looks caucasian - you don't know whether (s)he is a tourist, but you assume probably its a Kiwi. Could be however a continental European or an American.

If you observe on your trips a vehicle with an appalling driver who looks Asian - you don't know whether (s)he is a tourist or a Kiwi, but you just assume (s)he is a tourist. Could be however a third generation Kiwi.

See where I am coming from?

No.
Not many NZ Asian drivers drive rental cars/camper vans.
Coming back from Arthur's Pass a while ago, one nearly had not 1,not 2 ,but 3 head-on crashes.
Maddness.!
Just ask any truck,bus or commercial driver.They will confirm what I say.

[RupertBear]

No.
Not many NZ Asian drivers drive rental cars/camper vans.
Coming back from Arthur's Pass a while ago, one nearly had not 1,not 2 ,but 3 head-on crashes.
Maddness.!
Just ask any truck,bus or commercial driver.They will confirm what I say.

I share your fear Percy. I have also experienced a camper van driven by a young Asian man heading towards me on the wrong side of the road in central otago. It was terrifying and not an uncommon occurence from what I am told. I am not sure if identifying the nationality of the driver makes us racist or not, I can only say that in my case the driver was Asian.

[Beagle]

I agree more needs to be done to educate foreign drivers but according to the BNZ foreign tourists spent $26 billion while in N.Z. last year so I am not sure what people expect the N.Z. government to do about the issue, perhaps a debate for a separate off market thread for those interested in debating that ? Tourism is a huge breadwinner for the N.Z. economy and is growing fast at circa 12% per annum. THL is a huge beneficiary of the tourism growth and the change in nature of how tourists are seeing out country.

[see weed]

I drive on a winding road on most weekends and have a simple method of avoiding head on crashes with people driving on the wrong side of the road. I cannot tell you what I do on this forum, but will let you know what to do at next st meeting. ps so far it has worked for me 100%:).

[sb9]

Just noticed a paid article in NBR (don't have access) re an article on THL titled...
Tourism Holdings confident Trump visa crackdown won't affect its customers (https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/tourism-holdings-confident-trump-visa-crackdown-wont-affect-its-customers-jr-p-198829)...under which top statement visible for readers say ..."About 40% of Tourism Holdings earnings will now come from the US"..

I think little caution need to be excercised going forward with high USD in play for 2017 and may be beyond in terms how earnings will take place...

Food for thought.

Disc - sold out recently.

[Beagle]

I've read the full article sb9. Interestingly just over 50% of their business is from domestic sources and many of their customers are repeats doing their second, third or fourth motorhome trip in the States...she's a big country !

[BlackPeter]

I share your fear Percy. I have also experienced a camper van driven by a young Asian man heading towards me on the wrong side of the road in central otago. It was terrifying and not an uncommon occurence from what I am told. I am not sure if identifying the nationality of the driver makes us racist or not, I can only say that in my case the driver was Asian.

You might not realise that Asia is not a country but a continent. No "nationality" Asian - and no race either. There are caucasians living in Asia, there are other Indo-Europeans (like Indians), there are Polynesian people who come from Asia (including our Maori) and there are the Chinese "Han" people (and that's what you probably refer to).

If you are saying that you observed one dangerous driver of Chinese descent, than this may be just an observation. If you draw from that the conclusion that all Chinese drivers are behaving dangerously, than yes, this would be racist - and wrong. I do know a number of drivers of Chinese descent who drive much safer than some (Pakeha or Maori) Kiwi drivers I happened to meet on NZ roads.

From a personal perspective (which is statistically as irrelevant as yours) - I am driving a lot in NZ and can not remember one dangerous situation involving an Asian driver. I do remember however finding myself in dangerous situations involving a number of reckless Kiwi drivers. Does this mean all Kiwi drivers are bad? Of course not.

I used to drive during my life in many countries in Europe as well as in Australasia ... and can say that I met everywhere good drivers as well as bad ones. Trust me - this has nothing to do with race or nationality. The young man who frightened you in Central Otago may have been from some Asian country, but he could have been as well a Northland or Southland hoon - I understand they work hard to kill themselves and others on our roads.

[winner69]

I would hazard a guess that thl has many Asian shareholders

[Raz]

I would hazard a guess hat thl has many Asian shareholders

Well I see it as drivers not familiar with our conditions not a racial issue..driving on the wrong side of the road is just one issue. Another area overseas drivers appear unable to deal with is loose seal. Twice in a weekend late last year a rental rolled in front of me and as i was near queenstown and returning a rental I asked if that was a common issue and surprise surprise it isn't. People from EU just as bad on this one.

[Beagle]

I drive on a winding road on most weekends and have a simple method of avoiding head on crashes with people driving on the wrong side of the road. I cannot tell you what I do on this forum, but will let you know what to do at next st meeting. ps so far it has worked for me 100%:).

Sounds interesting, look forward to hearing about that and I will share my secret recipe for dealing with people who tailgate you, (totally politically incorrect so can't share on here). I haven't started a thread on it yet but our next Auckland meeting is going to be on the 4th March at lunchtime so mark that off in your diary now mate. Venue to be confirmed.

[see weed]

Sounds interesting, look forward to hearing about that and I will share my secret recipe for dealing with people who tailgate you, (totally politically incorrect so can't share on here). I haven't started a thread on it yet but our next Auckland meeting is going to be on the 4th March at lunchtime so mark that off in your diary now mate. Venue to be confirmed.
I'll be there. How about "The Zoo Keepers Son" Royal Oak for venue?

[Lewylewylewy]

I share your fear Percy. I have also experienced a camper van driven by a young Asian man heading towards me on the wrong side of the road in central otago. It was terrifying and not an uncommon occurence from what I am told. I am not sure if identifying the nationality of the driver makes us racist or not, I can only say that in my case the driver was Asian.

The racism concept is a funny one. In my view, racism is a combination of:

- Illogical, deep seated fear of someone who looks different to you. This is something every person on this world has built into their genetic make-up for tribal reasons. This is a bad thing for modern society.
- A rational ability of people to recognise patterns of behaviour, which may be due to culture, upbringing or nature. This is a good thing.

White guilt makes people associate both of the above as bad and we call it racism.

To draw an an analogy: Imagine if every time you saw a guy wearing a green hat, he slapped you around the face with a trout. After a while, you would learn to accept that people wearing green hats are likely to slap you around the face with a trout. You would then try to avoid that situation. That's just good sense. On the other hand, imagine if you saw a man wearing a green hat who had never slapped you around the face with a trout, but you don't like that man because you don't like green hats because it looks different to what you normally wear. That's bad.

Therefore, I think it's dangerous for society to say that we shouldn't judge people by race, if you (or someone you trust) has experience that has identified a pattern. On the other hand, it's important to rationally check your own thinking to work out if there actually is a pattern or if you just feel that there's a pattern because everyone says that there is - you need to make sure it's not tribal thinking that tricks you into feeling that way.

I know that opinion will anger a lot of people, but that's you're white guilt propaganda activating and you're a media lead drone - I won't apologise for that :p

So, in summary, I think it's not racist at all. Hopefully I don't get a ban for the above view :)

[Lewylewylewy]

Also, I've been that person on the wrong side of the road once in France. My defence is that I was tired. I felt REALLY stupid for that and am a bit ashamed :(

[Lewylewylewy]

Also, we definitely shouldn't ban tourists from driving - we should look into the figures to see what percentage of foreign drivers have accidents, then compare that to the national average for people driving in those area's at those times of year, then make a decision about what to do. The effect on the tourism industry may also be a consideration (might not be a bad thing - just more tours available).

[winner69]

When Air NZ show an ad with a Jaguar driving on the wrong side of the road possibly foreigners think that's the norm.

[Beagle]

I'll be there. How about "The Zoo Keepers Son" Royal Oak for venue?

Hi mate,

I think with people coming from different directions something in central Auckland makes more common sense. I'll chew the fat on the venue and advise in due course.

[RupertBear]

You might not realise that Asia is not a country but a continent. No "nationality" Asian - and no race either. There are caucasians living in Asia, there are other Indo-Europeans (like Indians), there are Polynesian people who come from Asia (including our Maori) and there are the Chinese "Han" people (and that's what you probably refer to).

If you are saying that you observed one dangerous driver of Chinese descent, than this may be just an observation. If you draw from that the conclusion that all Chinese drivers are behaving dangerously, than yes, this would be racist - and wrong. I do know a number of drivers of Chinese descent who drive much safer than some (Pakeha or Maori) Kiwi drivers I happened to meet on NZ roads.

From a personal perspective (which is statistically as irrelevant as yours) - I am driving a lot in NZ and can not remember one dangerous situation involving an Asian driver. I do remember however finding myself in dangerous situations involving a number of reckless Kiwi drivers. Does this mean all Kiwi drivers are bad? Of course not.

I used to drive during my life in many countries in Europe as well as in Australasia ... and can say that I met everywhere good drivers as well as bad ones. Trust me - this has nothing to do with race or nationality. The young man who frightened you in Central Otago may have been from some Asian country, but he could have been as well a Northland or Southland hoon - I understand they work hard to kill themselves and others on our roads.

Thanks for clarifying my misuse of the word "nationality" BlackPeter and that my assumption that the driver that almost killed me was "Asian" was also incorrect. I stand corrected. And yes it was simply my personal observation which may indeed be statistically irrelevant.

[Lewylewylewy]

Where I'm from (England) you get called a racist if you call an Indian an Indian and a Pakistani a Pakistani - you have to call them Asian. I never understood why that was racist, but always put it down to perpetuation of white guilt and the abstraction of association of negative behaviour of specific races (which has contributed to / caused Brexit). I assume that calling Chinese people Asian is a carry over from that? Stupid really, because when someone says "Asian" in NZ, everyone knows what they mean. Same as in the UK.

#GrindsMyGears

</Rant> over :)

[Raz]

Where I'm from (England) you get called a racist if you call an Indian an Indian and a Pakistani a Pakistani - you have to call them Asian. I never understood why that was racist, but always put it down to perpetuation of white guilt and the abstraction of association of negative behaviour of specific races (which has contributed to / caused Brexit). I assume that calling Chinese people Asian is a carry over from that? Stupid really, because when someone says "Asian" in NZ, everyone knows what they mean. Same as in the UK.

#GrindsMyGears

</Rant> over :)

Interesting the PC crowd jumped on the potential racist element rather than the real issue here...the number of accidents incurred with rental cars and geographically concentrated of accidents..that would be a great starting point for a focused effective public policy.

[Faker]

Anyone riding this fella? Any expectations on half year result?

[JeremyALD]

Anyone riding this fella? Any expectations on half year result?

They're a very impressive business. Hard to see where they can go wrong in a booming tourism market.

Debt is a little on the high side and the USA poses some risks, but I think the business is well managed overall. Looking forward to the interim results.

[Beagle]

They're a very impressive business. Hard to see where they can go wrong in a booming tourism market.

Debt is a little on the high side and the USA poses some risks, but I think the business is well managed overall. Looking forward to the interim results.

Totally agree and note that the company has a track record of regular forecast upgrades and beating forecasts. Looking forward to Tuesday next week and I am a happy holder :)

[LAC]

Really looking fwd to this result! This is my pick for the reporting season:) Unless EBO pulls one out the bag "again"

[LAC]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/253351.pdf

She's out this morning...

[JeremyALD]

Great annoucement. She's sailing away sweetly :)

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/253351.pdf

She's out this morning...

Bright Horizons sums the situation up superby.

Scaling up for growth. Happy holder, happy with the dividend and will be reinvesting through the new dividend reinvestment plan.

[Pricey]

Good result. Particularly like hearing about having a "clear and simple plan'. Nothing too racy. Should get a good indication of the Second Half vie the Aus visitor numbers due out in March.

[percy]

A cracker.!

[Robomo]

Good result, but that's what the market was expecting. So apart from a short bounce in SP it's back to where it was yesterday. DRP will be popular I think and I'll be taking part in it.

[sb9]

Good result, but that's what the market was expecting. So apart from a short bounce in SP it's back to where it was yesterday. DRP will be popular I think and I'll be taking part in it.

Agree, good result however if you put into perspective 10c partially imputed divvy on sp of 388, it doesn't look that attractive. Having said that I guess market is attributing higher PE due to future prospects out of their recent acquisition. Yes, DRP will be popular in my opinion too.

[Jantar]

The divvy is around where I was expecting, but the part being only 50% imputed was a bit unexpected. They do explain it as being that only 50% of their revenue is from NZ, so I guess it does make some sense. The continued growth is the attractive part, and the DRP will certainly help with cashflow after such large aquisitions.

[JeremyALD]

Agree, good result however if you put into perspective 10c partially imputed divvy on sp of 388, it doesn't look that attractive. Having said that I guess market is attributing higher PE due to future prospects out of their recent acquisition. Yes, DRP will be popular in my opinion too.

For such a quickly growing company a dividend yield of around 5% is pretty attractive.

[Jinx]

Thought I'd chime in on the THL result. These guys are in the biggest growth market I can think of inside NZ, they had to upgrade profit predictions on the 21st of Dec and then they still beat that guidance (even if only by 200k). Assuming the US operations go smoothly over the next 12 months I'd guess we'll all be very 'well positioned' going forward!

[Out to lunch]

Thought I'd chime in on the THL result. These guys are in the biggest growth market I can think of inside NZ, they had to upgrade profit predictions on the 21st of Dec and then they still beat that guidance (even if only by 200k). Assuming the US operations go smoothly over the next 12 months I'd guess we'll all be very 'well positioned' going forward!

Target price by the brokers now at $4.20 - I don't think the brokers are blazing it!

[iceman]

I have been trying to sign up to the DRP on Link Marketservices website. Doesn't give me the option. Is it just me ? Have any of you guys or gals done it ? Maybe they haven't set up that option yet for THL

[LAC]

I tried yesterday as well, does not exist yet. Can someone post on here when it is available?

[mondograss]

They said they'd write to the shareholders in March to advise on the DRP and give people the option to participate then.

[Beagle]

http://www.4-traders.com/TOURISM-HOLDINGS-LTD-6491392/consensus/

Good hold for long term growth. If the company can deliver on their $50m profit goal in three years up from forecast $27m+ this year expect a commensurate lift in the SP over that timeframe !

[Yoda]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11808560. What we already know, NZ is full .... Remember the days when Billy Connelly came to nz on tour and landed on a saturday afternoon... and thought it was shut ..... Now you cant get a bed. , !

[Lewylewylewy]

http://www.4-traders.com/TOURISM-HOLDINGS-LTD-6491392/consensus/

Good hold for long term growth. If the company can deliver on their $50m profit goal in three years up from forecast $27m+ this year expect a commensurate lift in the SP over that timeframe !

Personally, I have these down as cyclical. What I'd love to know is how survivable the business would be if the tourism dropped off for a couple of years. Has anyone done the analysis? I think that if they're survivable then they're cyclical with an upward trend, otherwise they're a massively cyclical business because of the tourist pricing :)

[Jantar]

Personally, I have these down as cyclical. What I'd love to know is how survivable the business would be if the tourism dropped off for a couple of years. Has anyone done the analysis? I think that if they're survivable then they're cyclical with an upward trend, otherwise they're a massively cyclical business because of the tourist pricing :)
Only half their business is onshore. If NZ's tourism drops then chances are that USA's will increase.

[Beagle]

Personally, I have these down as cyclical. What I'd love to know is how survivable the business would be if the tourism dropped off for a couple of years. Has anyone done the analysis? I think that if they're survivable then they're cyclical with an upward trend, otherwise they're a massively cyclical business because of the tourist pricing :)

International travel has never been cheaper in real terms and I expect that trend to continue with more efficient aircraft design evolving over time. N.Z. is one of the four safest countries in the world to visit, is relatively clean, unpolluted and uncrowded, (although the queue's at Queenstown's gondola can be frustrating). All the ructions in the middle east, terrorism threats in Europe and chaos in many other parts of the world all tend to suggest N.Z. will remain an extremely attractive place to visit. With hotel prices increasing in N.Z. a fair bit lately and difficulty getting a hotel booking in peak season...join the dots to see why demand for THL's motorhomes will remain very strong.

No worries, earnings should roughly double over the next three years and the SP is highly likely to follow suit :)

[Lewylewylewy]

I like the optimism and largely agree, but I think that every 8 years or so, there's a lul in the economy, at which point there will be a lul in tourism. Ok, that's probably all shares effected, but I just wonder how well THL can survive with practically no one using their products / services. In a general downturn, many other businesses keep operating and selling, they just get less profit / sales and have a worrisome outlook. I wonder if THL will be different and how they would handle something like that. Looking at their historic SP, they dropped 85% during the GRC period and took about 8 years to recover. Their historic SP does kinda look cyclical. Their low is about $1, their high is about $3. Everything is ticking along great at the moment and they're about $4. Maybe they'll get another good couple of years and go to $7, but when turbulance hits, will they have to close everything, lose all their money and drop back to $1, only to have to spend the next 5 years steadily growing back to where they were again?

Don't mistake this negativity for negativity against THL. I actually like this company and have made a few dollar on it. I like the business, I like the way they grow, I like the dividend policy, etc. It's a good share. I've just marked it as cyclical, so a buy when it starts to pick up after bad times and a sell when you've made a pile of money on it.

Also I'm very focused on risk at the moment, because there's a lot of very volitle politics / policies being generated and also a lot of crazy stuff going on regarding immigration (home and abroad). That said, I largely like NZ's economic prospects. Just looking at timing an exit for my own financial strategy & lifestyle reasons over this next year or two.

:)

[winner69]

lewy me old mate - anything cyclical in this chart?

Maybe a 'lull' every now and again but visitor numbers always seem to go up

[winner69]

lewy - i've added the THL share price (as at December each year) to that vistors chart

Yeah, has a cyclical look to it but that is because of things not related to actual tourism activity. A lot of it due to thl performance and market sentiment

My memory is long


Early 2000's when shareprice halved - THL under Pickup were hopeless at every thing they did. The standing joke at the time was that the more visitor numbers the less thl made. Good eh
from 2003 to 2007 there was hope and things get sort of better but they were still pretty useless.
The shareprice did get close to $3 in 2007 but that was after some stupid Aussie company bid $2.80 (I think) for them. The takeover was rejected. (That company went broke shortly afterwards anyway)
Post that was the GFC came about and the shareprice fell away. thl essentially lost money through this period and it was never worth more than $1.50 anyway (let alone $2.70) so the drop looks worse on the chart. The low of 40/50 cents probably reflected how hopeless thl were.
Alluding to one of your points most stocks fell during that period as PE ratios contracted quite markedly
Rob Campbell came on board in 2013 and focused thl on actually doing good things. With that increase in vistir numbers as a good tailwind and acquisitions things have come good. Nice chart eh
Looking forward they reckon profits will double in the next few years. Shareprice hasn't really factored that in yet. Your concerns about a 'lull' in vistor numbers would likely have some negative impact on thl shareprice (if the 'lull' actually happened) but that slack would be picked up by their global acquistions
Worst case for shareprice iis if there was a 'lull' in NZ and markets collapsed (lower PEs etc) - but I reckon the increased earnings would mitigate a lot of the damage and as such see see current price as about the worst it would get to.
Almost saying nothing to lose?



That's how I see it anyway

[Lewylewylewy]

Hi w69,

Great chart and even better synopsis, thanks!

I will revise my view on this advice. I'm not sure if it will change my investment strategy regarding THL, but it will change my thinking on it. Maybe I could considered it a long hold on this information.

[Beagle]

No question Rob Campbell has made a massive difference and is doing a superb job at SUM too.

[NZSilver]

Morning, how do you participate in THL div reinvestment plan?

[Beagle]

Morning, how do you participate in THL div reinvestment plan?

Great question, docs coming soon I think ?

[JeremyALD]

Fuel spending by toursits up 19% year on year and accommodation 9% - good signs for 2017

[Jantar]

Morning, how do you participate in THL div reinvestment plan?
Details released today, and I am signed up.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/298116

[RupertBear]

Details released today, and I am signed up.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/298116

I have usually taken the dividend but I get the impression people think it is a good idea to sign up for the DRP. :confused: I would be grateful to hear peoples opinions on this.

[JeremyALD]

I have usually taken the dividend but I get the impression people think it is a good idea to sign up for the DRP. :confused: I would be grateful to hear peoples opinions on this.

2% discount, no brokerage and to reinvest in a growing performing business. I'm all in :)

[iceman]

Have signed up to full participation through Link Marketservices website.
RupertBear, each investor has different circumstances, many rely on dividends as a main form of income. I personally participate in all DRPs that are available and do the same for my 2 daughters portfolios. It is a cheap and easy way to invest and over a few years, shows you the power of compounding investment. If you don't need the cash, I do not hesitate to recommend participation in DRPs of good well run companies. THL is a good and well run company.

[RupertBear]

Thank you I have signed up for the DRP :)

[Jinx]

Nice to see the COO buying another 10k shares.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/255153.pdf

How long can THL be kept under $4?

[Faker]

Not sure why the SP is falling. I have bought more at $3.85 and have participated in DRP. Looking forward to their forecast update :)

[Xerof]

Not sure why the SP is falling

Supply from the MILFord, going by their SSH notice recently

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/255153.pdf Chief operating officer buys more at $3.95.

[RupertBear]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/255153.pdf Chief operating officer buys more at $3.95.

Picked up a few myself at $3.84 but looks like I caught the falling knife as $3.76 now :mellow:

[Beagle]

Picked up a few myself at $3.84 but looks like I caught the falling knife as $3.76 now :mellow:

Looks like a bit of an over reaction to me, (the selling on the back of Milford fund's announcement). People selling now at circa $3.75 are forgoing the 10 cent dividend so are saying on an ex dividend basis the stock isn't worth $3.65. Hmmmm

[percy]

No no no,if Milford are selling it must be a sell.

Disc.I am looking to add to my holding later this week when a cheque clears.

[JeremyALD]

I topped up. Don't think there'll be that many more opportunities around this price. Unfortunately I had to sell some HBL shares to do it :(

[Jantar]

I topped up. Don't think there'll be that many more opportunities around this price. Unfortunately I had to sell some HBL shares to do it :(Topped up as well. I sold some SKL to do it.

[Beagle]

Congrats guys I reckon that's good buying. Quality company, well managed and directed trading on undemanding PE with solid growth prospects trading cum a 10 cent dividend.

[iceman]

Topped up as well. I sold some SKL to do it.

Same here. Couldn't help myself and picked up a few after close. Too tempting with CD 10c for awhile yet

[Joshuatree]

How does one" pick some up after close" iceman?

[BlackPeter]

No no no,if Milford are selling it must be a sell.

Disc.I am looking to add to my holding later this week when a cheque clears.

I second that ...

Discl: Still waiting for my order to be filled ;)

[iceman]

How does one" pick some up after close" iceman?

Good question. Placed at 16.33 hrs and completed at 16.36hrs. Surprised me as I thought it would be a tomorrow order but it was filled immediately "after close" at 16.00hrs
Only a small purchase as you can see below:
Order ID: 2,016,062 THL.NZX Tourism Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares
Order Placed Comp. Qty Comp. Date Expires Status
BUY 1,500 at 374 21/03 16:33 1,500 21/03 16:36 23/03 Completed