THL - Tourism Holdings

[Snow Leopard]

Good question. Placed at 16.33 hrs and completed at 16.36hrs. Surprised me as I thought it would be a tomorrow order but it was filled immediately "after close" at 16.00hrs
Only a small purchase as you can see below:
Order ID: 2,016,062 THL.NZX Tourism Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares
Order Placed Comp. Qty Comp. Date Expires Status
BUY 1,500 at 374 21/03 16:33 1,500 21/03 16:36 23/03 Completed

Close is 17:00

You bunged your little order in during normal trading hours [10:00 - 16:45]

See: https://www.nzx.com/markets/nzsx/trading_hours

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Joshuatree]

Or wrong planet; Are you a Martian ; Iceman?:D

[janner]

I topped up. Don't think there'll be that many more opportunities around this price. Unfortunately I had to sell some HBL shares to do it :(

At a profit on HBL ??.. Why the " unfortunately " You obviously think you will make more by changing ..

I do not even think about selling HBL..

DYOR,

[iceman]

Close is 17:00

You bunged your little order in during normal trading hours [10:00 - 16:45]

See: https://www.nzx.com/markets/nzsx/trading_hours

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Totally right PT. I had 4PM in my head. Blame it on too much travel lately but probably on wrong planet alongside JT :-)

[JeremyALD]

At a profit on HBL ??.. Why the " unfortunately " You obviously think you will make more by changing ..

I do not even think about selling HBL..

DYOR,

Because I love HBL but don't see the SP going much higher in the short term. I made over 30% on the shares I sold. I think THL has more room to grow in the next few months given how quickly heartland has gone up.

[Beagle]

One of the very few stocks up today. Saw the opportunity, had the funds...sniffed at it, toyed with it, played with it, talked about it but for some reason ? didn't bite...annoyed with myself today.

[h2so4]

There might be a treat waiting when you get home.

[percy]

The sudden weakness in THL's sp today was attivated by me topping up at $3.79.!

[JeremyALD]

The sudden weakness in THL's sp today was attivated by me topping up at $3.79.!

Is there a reason for the weakness do you think? Scared about what's happening in the US or just a cool down period?

[percy]

I would guess the UK terror attack.

[Beagle]

Underscores that N.Z. is a nice safe place to visit but the hotels are so jammed full and Queenstown overrun with tourists....I know, hire a campervan and see the great outdoors :)

[Joshuatree]

The great outdoors being poohing in the gutter right; ala headlining on TV3 news the other night.:t_up:

[sb9]

Anyone notice a Mln shares transacted just after market closed at $3.75...

Looks like Milford still offloading...waiting for my order still to be filled:)

[JeremyALD]

Anyone notice a Mln shares transacted just after market closed at $3.75...

Looks like Milford still offloading...waiting for my order still to be filled:)

I wonder why they are offloading? Seems strange. Maybe they know something we don't?

[sb9]

I wonder why they are offloading? Seems strange. Maybe they know something we don't?

All I can think of is financial year end (Mar) kpi targets..

[Turtle2]

Anyone notice a Mln shares transacted just after market closed at $3.75...

Looks like Milford still offloading...waiting for my order still to be filled:)

On the other hand, someone just bought a million shares.

[Valuegrowth]

https://simplywall.st/news/2017/03/23/only-8-days-left-to-cash-in-on-tourism-holdings-limited-nzsethl-dividend-should-you-buy/

[JoeGrogan]

https://simplywall.st/news/2017/03/23/only-8-days-left-to-cash-in-on-tourism-holdings-limited-nzsethl-dividend-should-you-buy/

A few numbers in the article seem to be wrong.

[Valuegrowth]

Thank you for highlighting it.
A few numbers in the article seem to be wrong.

[huxley]

This may be a dumb question but is there a discount on shares purchased in the DRP? I've looked in the offer document and it says this will be announced 10 days before it goes ex dividend but I can't see anything. I thought it was 2% but I may of been getting confused.

"A dividend reinvestment plan is to be introduced for the interim dividend. Eligible shareholders can elect to reinvest the net dividend payable in new thl shares. The price of such shares will be the 5 day volume weighted average price following the record date less a discount of 2%. Details of the dividend reinvestment plan will be sent to eligible shareholders in early March and the last date for the registrar to receive election notices or changes to election notices is 5pm on the record date.
"

[sb9]

Anyone notice a Mln shares transacted just after market closed at $3.75...

Looks like Milford still offloading...waiting for my order still to be filled:)

After 7 days of waiting my order finally got filled :), happy to be back on board...

[Jinx]

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/03/chinese-tourism-to-nz-to-get-a-boost-with-new-deals.html

More free advertising. With the sp down I'm really just playing the waiting game to top up more.

[LAC]

Pre ex div, that price is looking tempting to be honest.

[sb9]

Signed for the DRP, easy as to do it online.

[sb9]

Just friendly reminder last day today to get in before it goes ex-div tomorrow....:)

[JoeGrogan]

unfortunately the large amount that has been sitting at 380 the last couple of days (was 75,000 shares yesterday) has stopped the share price from rallying up before ex div date imo

[Beagle]

Unfortunately I think Milford asset management have a fair few still left to go and have been the ones reducing lately. I suspect considerable patience will be required

[JoeGrogan]

Unfortunately I think Milford asset management have a fair few still left to go and have been the ones reducing lately. I suspect considerable patience will be required

Are they getting rid of the lot or are they just repositioning ?

[Beagle]

Are they getting rid of the lot or are they just repositioning ?

No idea, you'd have to ask them and I am pretty sure they wouldn't tell you.

[JoeGrogan]

No idea, you'd have to ask them and I am pretty sure they wouldn't tell you.

Sorry misread your initial post, i seemed to think you had actual knowledge of them still offloading.

[lawson]

Are they getting rid of the lot or are they just repositioning ?

The only SSH notice to date on March 20 stated they had made a reduction in holdings from 16.705.000 to 16,000.000

That doesn't mean there won't be another notice and they are offloading more, but it also doesn't necessarily mean that the person(s) selling now is/are Milford.

[golden city]

I am still a strong believer from 50c...all the way to 4.00.., looking at increasing dividends each half

[iceman]

I am still a strong believer from 50c...all the way to 4.00.., looking at increasing dividends each half

Agree GC. The Company is on record saying they expect NPAT to reach $50M by 2020. If they achieve that, which in my view they are on track to do at present with the very favourable winds for the industry, I see no reason why dividends can not increase 70-85% from current level by then. With a current PE of around 16, I do not think that expected growth is fully built into the SP so expect a healthy increase in SP as well, as they record their progress each year.

The biggest concern I have is whether there will be any Trump effect negatively affecting tourism into the USA.

Discl: Currently my biggest holding and still accumulating

[Beagle]

Agree GC. The Company is on record saying they expect NPAT to reach $50M by 2020. If they achieve that, which in my view they are on track to do at present with the very favourable winds for the industry, I see no reason why dividends can not increase 70-85% from current level by then. With a current PE of around 16, I do not think that expected growth is fully built into the SP so expect a healthy increase in SP as well, as they record their progress each year.

The biggest concern I have is whether there will be any Trump effect negatively affecting tourism into the USA.

Discl: Currently my biggest holding and still accumulating

I believe there are genuine grounds for concern in that regard although I think from memory about 50% of the business done in the States is from domestic sources so I'm not expecting a huge effect but I think there will be some which is possibly why the SP has come back a little lately since Mr Trump seems to have a great deal of trouble winning friends and influencing people. No question in my mind Trump is a one term president, (assuming he doesn't get impeached earlier or resign or get assassinated), so on a DCF basis in the long term this makes only a modest amount of difference to those business units valuation given only an expected modest impact on tourism there. Pullback in recent weeks seems about right to me.

[winner69]

I hope thl are 'optimising' fares to enhance shareholder returns ......hopefully not going overboard but not forgetting this opportunity only comes along every five(?) years or so

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11830439

[winner69]

thl share price about 340 when they came out with their $50m NPAT in 2020 target


Market not bought into that doubling of profit stuff

Markets supposed to be 'forward looking' but often a bit slow off the mark

One can still get this growth on the cheap - the early bird gets the worms

[iceman]

thl share price about 340 when they came out with their $50m NPAT in 2020 target


Market not bought into that doubling of profit stuff

Markets supposed to be 'forward looking' but often a bit slow off the mark

One can still get this growth on the cheap - the early bird gets the worms

Quite a lot of that forecasted growth or about USD 6M expected to come from EL Monte so I think we and Mr Market are watching to see how they progress in the USA. Agree though that the Market seems hesitant. Quite happy with that as it gives me more time to accumulate.

[JeremyALD]

I am a bit worried about the US business. There's lots of reports that Tourism is in for a rough couple of years with Trump's policies and perceptions of travellers overseas. This could impact sales quite significantly. I haven't seen any stats on domestic travel in the US but I presume that will still be strong which could offset impacts a bit.

https://www.ft.com/content/d8d3402a-1540-11e7-b0c1-37e417ee6c76

[iceman]

Agree JeremyALD. This is a real risk for the US tourism business and with El Monde customer base being about 50% European, this is important for THL. I am hopeful that those Europeans that want to visit the USA will do so pretty much regardless of Trump policies, unless they directly make it more difficult for them to visit.

[Beagle]

Talk amongst regular travelers I know of four hour entry processes to the States at LAX are not helping. Who wants to stand in queues for four hours after a twelve hour flight ? Not me that's for sure.
I think the market needs to see evidence that the American investment is tracking as anticipated before this can be rerated above $4. Some patience will be required with this one I feel.

[kiwico]

Try flying into a Saudi city just after a full PIA flight has landed - it took a friend over six hours to get through customs on one trip in.

I'm flying to the States later in the year (on AIR) but have chosen SFO as my port of entry this time - anything to avoid LAX!

[Jonboyz]

I've been told that SFO usually process people within 15 minutes. I can tell you the truth of that in a couple of weeks when I go there.

[Arbroath]

I'm flying into LAX this Friday and have the rental car booked for pickup 90 minutes after I land - call me an optimist. I'll let you know how it goes.

Agree Trump and any negative foreigner tone he creates could be a problem but I'd view it as more an opportunity if THL got back to $3 as he will be a one term president.

[BlackPeter]

I'm flying into LAX this Friday and have the rental car booked for pickup 90 minutes after I land - call me an optimist. I'll let you know how it goes.

Agree Trump and any negative foreigner tone he creates could be a problem but I'd view it as more an opportunity if THL got back to $3 as he will be a one term president.

Remember to drive on the right side of the road ... and while I share your hope re Trump ... don't overestimate the intelligence of the American voters ...:p

[Beagle]

I'm flying into LAX this Friday and have the rental car booked for pickup 90 minutes after I land - call me an optimist. I'll let you know how it goes.

Agree Trump and any negative foreigner tone he creates could be a problem but I'd view it as more an opportunity if THL got back to $3 as he will be a one term president.

You'll be okay as it doesn't matter if you're late for your rental pick-up. Its the people with connecting flights with that timeframe who have a real problem. Rental cars are happy to stay parked up on the tarmac but on the other hand...

Quite possible he won't go anywhere near the full first term either, impeachment, resignation or assassination spring to mind as possibilities, he seems hell bent on being divisive and creating enemies and that usually doesn't end well one way or the other.

[Blondie]

Hi Arbroath

Seems like someone should give Trump a copy of "How to Win Friends and Influence People"?

Blondie

[JeremyALD]

Yikes $3.65 now and I'm only 15 cents away from a red arrow!

On the bright side, at least we'll be getting a cheap DRP!

[Leftfield]

Yikes $3.65 now and I'm only 15 cents away from a red arrow!

On the bright side, at least we'll be getting a cheap DRP!

News like this (https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2017/feb/28/us-tourism-experiences-a-trump-slump) is making the market nervous. THL has strong prospects, but until there is an update on Trumps effect on USA tourism, the market is right to be cautious.

On the bright side I read somewhere recently that Russian tourism to USA is up by 80%!! :eek2: (LOL - there's got to be a message there IMHO.)

Disc: Holder

[sb9]

Keeping some powder dry for any further opportunity to top up....:)

[Leftfield]

Keeping some powder dry for any further opportunity to top up....:)

Ditto....!

[Jinx]

News like this (https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2017/feb/28/us-tourism-experiences-a-trump-slump) is making the market nervous. THL has strong prospects, but until there is an update on Trumps effect on USA tourism, the market is right to be cautious.

On the bright side I read somewhere recently that Russian tourism to USA is up by 80%!! :eek2: (LOL - there's got to be a message there IMHO.)

Disc: Holder

All the stats in this article talk about incoming flight stats to the US. I'd imagine the 'trump effect' will impact the NZ tourism industry in a positive way, no mention of the outgoing flights from the US.

[iceman]

All the stats in this article talk about incoming flight stats to the US. I'd imagine the 'trump effect' will impact the NZ tourism industry in a positive way, no mention of the outgoing flights from the US.

35-40% of THL profit comes from the USA and it is forecasting a significant growth there in coming years. So should there be a serious Trump effect, it is highly likely to affect THL's business.

[JeremyALD]

Is there anyway to get stats on the number of visitors to the USA, especially from UK and Europe? This would help us understand trends.

Statistics New Zealand has so much info on number of arrivals, country of origin ect but I'm struggling to find much on the USA stat websites. Sure there must be monthly reporting on this type of thing that you don't have to pay for?

The best I can find is the below report which provides tourism forcasts for the USA over the next five years. It all looks pretty positive (although this report was published in November 2016). I guess the question is how much Trump does impact tourist numbers.

http://travel.trade.gov/view/f-2000-99-001/forecast/Forecast_Summary.pdf

[iceman]

Same here JeremyALD. I struggle to find any up to date info. These are the closest I've come but the info is fairly old

https://www.ustravel.org/system/files/Media%20Root/Document/US_Travel_AnswerSheet_2015.pdf
http://trade.gov/travelindicators/international-travelers-to-usa.asp

[Leftfield]

Is there anyway to get stats on the number of visitors to the USA, especially from UK and Europe? This would help us understand trends.

http://travel.trade.gov/view/f-2000-99-001/forecast/Forecast_Summary.pdf

Hi JeremyALD and Iceman, the figures I referred to in my last post re THL were from this article in the Economist (http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2017/02/i-m-banned).

Although the article falls short on the detailed stats that we are seeking, it does give a disturbing trend. Here's what it was saying;

"WHEN President Donald Trump announced his travel ban last month, affecting people from seven majority-Muslim countries, this blog wondered (http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2017/01/no-warm-welcome) what effect it would have on tourism and business travel to America. “The direct impact to tourism of a travel ban from these countries will be small,” a fellow Gulliver noted, since “each sends a piddling number of visitors to America.” But there was a bigger concern: “Will the decree—easily interpreted as a deep hostility to the world beyond America’s shores—put off global travellers?”
Two weeks later, it has become clear that the answer is yes.
Last week, the travel ban was blocked temporarily by a federal judge and the suspension upheld by a panel of appeals court judges. But that hasn’t stopped Mr Trump’s executive order from having an effect on travel to the United States.


Hopper, a market research firm, looked at (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-trump-travel-ban-20170211-story.html) online searches for flights into America, comparing the final weeks of the Obama administration with the first weeks of Mr Trump’s presidency. It found that these searches had declined by 17%. The overwhelming majority of countries studied showed a drop in interest. The most notable exception was Russia, which has been accused of meddling in November’s presidential election in Mr Trump’s favour and colluding with members of his team. Searches for flights to America from Russia increased by 88%.
The overall 17% decline, Hopper found, was much larger than the 1.8% drop that occurred between the same two periods a year ago, leading the company’s top data scientist to tell (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-trump-travel-ban-20170211-story.html) the Los Angeles Times that it is “hard to see any other short-term significant events that could be related,” other than Mr Trump’s assumption of the presidency and his travel ban."

[JeremyALD]

Hi JeremyALD and Iceman, the figures I referred to in my last post re THL were from this article in the Economist (http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2017/02/i-m-banned).

Although the article falls short on the detailed stats that we are seeking, it does give a disturbing trend. Here's what it was saying;

"WHEN President Donald Trump announced his travel ban last month, affecting people from seven majority-Muslim countries, this blog wondered (http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2017/01/no-warm-welcome) what effect it would have on tourism and business travel to America. “The direct impact to tourism of a travel ban from these countries will be small,” a fellow Gulliver noted, since “each sends a piddling number of visitors to America.” But there was a bigger concern: “Will the decree—easily interpreted as a deep hostility to the world beyond America’s shores—put off global travellers?”
Two weeks later, it has become clear that the answer is yes.
Last week, the travel ban was blocked temporarily by a federal judge and the suspension upheld by a panel of appeals court judges. But that hasn’t stopped Mr Trump’s executive order from having an effect on travel to the United States.


Hopper, a market research firm, looked at (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-trump-travel-ban-20170211-story.html) online searches for flights into America, comparing the final weeks of the Obama administration with the first weeks of Mr Trump’s presidency. It found that these searches had declined by 17%. The overwhelming majority of countries studied showed a drop in interest. The most notable exception was Russia, which has been accused of meddling in November’s presidential election in Mr Trump’s favour and colluding with members of his team. Searches for flights to America from Russia increased by 88%.
The overall 17% decline, Hopper found, was much larger than the 1.8% drop that occurred between the same two periods a year ago, leading the company’s top data scientist to tell (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-trump-travel-ban-20170211-story.html) the Los Angeles Times that it is “hard to see any other short-term significant events that could be related,” other than Mr Trump’s assumption of the presidency and his travel ban."




Thanks very much. I guess it will be interesting if the trend was a direct result of the ban and bad press during the time and if things will return to normal in a few months when things settle down.....Mind you with Trump not sure if things will ever settle.

[arc]

Hopefully there will be a corresponding rise in NZ visitors, but this will do little to offset the potential 17% loss from the 35%-40% profit from the USA market.

Would be interesting to have some numbers to play with;

Edit: just found AIA entry reports, visitor numbers, ... hmmm.

[BlackPeter]

Thanks very much. I guess it will be interesting if the trend was a direct result of the ban and bad press during the time and if things will return to normal in a few months when things settle down.....Mind you with Trump not sure if things will ever settle.


Hopefully there will be a corresponding rise in NZ visitors, but this will do little to offset the potential 17% loss from the 35%-40% profit from the USA market.

Would be interesting to have some numbers to play with;

Edit: just found AIA entry reports, visitor numbers, ... hmmm.

I'd expect the damage Trump is doing to the tourism industry to be sticky. Not too many people like to holiday in destinations where the hosts are busy with loving only themselves and hating everybody else. Takes a long time to repair such a bad reputation.

And yes, this might mean more tourists for NZ. We just need to make sure that they are not put off by our already stretched infrastructure ... and the resulting "premium prices" exploiting tourists (like during the Lions tour). If we are not careful our reputation is changing as well. Heard only last week from some German acquaintances who toured NZ that they found the place dear (and it is, compared to most other countries) and not really offering value anymore.

[black knat]

And yes, this might mean more tourists for NZ. We just need to make sure that they are not put off by our already stretched infrastructure ... and the resulting "premium prices" exploiting tourists (like during the Lions tour). If we are not careful our reputation is changing as well. Heard only last week from some German acquaintances who toured NZ that they found the place dear (and it is, compared to most other countries) and not really offering value anymore.

New Zealand has always been a premium destination - that is a good thing and should stay that way. There are issues with public infrastructure in some areas but, aside from a few very limited exceptions, I doubt there is much in the way of "exploiting" going on. There are a lot of factors that go into pricing. For accommodation for example the economics of the industry have changed dramatically over the last 10 years. Most accommodation businesses have had to cope with a dramatic increase in their cost base as the use of international internet based booking agents has become prevalent. Staff costs for house-keeping staff have also increased dramatically - by more than 50% in some locations in the last few years. I think you will find that many accommodation businesses are not a profitable as you might think - even in supposed tourist hot spots.

[BlackPeter]

New Zealand has always been a premium destination - that is a good thing and should stay that way. There are issues with public infrastructure in some areas but, aside from a few very limited exceptions, I doubt there is much in the way of "exploiting" going on. There are a lot of factors that go into pricing. For accommodation for example the economics of the industry have changed dramatically over the last 10 years. Most accommodation businesses have had to cope with a dramatic increase in their cost base as the use of international internet based booking agents has become prevalent. Staff costs for house-keeping staff have also increased dramatically - by more than 50% in some locations in the last few years. I think you will find that many accommodation businesses are not a profitable as you might think - even in supposed tourist hot spots.

Look, no reason to find excuses. It is a fact that NZ is a very expensive destination for overseas tourist (as well, but not just due to the high NZ$), it is a fact that at least some tourist operators like to exploit shortages with shameless overpricing. Sure - not everybody, but you need only a few to spoil it for all. It doesn't matter to tourists whether these high prices are due to greed, inefficiency, too high costs for the host or other reasons, they just go next time somewhere else.

It is as well a fact that the clean and green reputation of our country is shining every day a bit less ... too many unswimmable and less attractive rivers and beaches, too many algae blooms and too much spraying and overstocking going on in the countryside.

Again - no need for excuses .... we can either fix the problems and keep our (still rather good) international reputation, or we can close our eyes, keep telling us how great we are and be surprised if tourists start looking for greener pastures.

I guess - even exploiting the Trump factor goes only that far ...

[Beagle]

Try staying in a London hotel during the Olympics and then tour through the U.K. and Europe during their summer peak season and then please come back and try and tell us with a straight face that N.Z. is expensive.

[couta1]

Be Greedy when others are Fearful. Disc-Now Hold. Just doing a BP, but I favour the whole camper van rather than just the glass windows.

[BlackPeter]

Try staying in a London hotel during the Olympics and then tour through the U.K. and Europe during their summer peak season and then please come back and try and tell us with a straight face that N.Z. is expensive.

Roger, I noticed during our recent visits to Europe more and more that life in Europe is (for somebody used to NZ prices and thinking in NZ$) quite modestly priced.

And yes - I talked about Europe, not the UK ... I know the UK is dear (well, maybe less so after the BREXIT decision ...) ... but I find it anyway difficult to understand how anybody might want to live or holiday there ...

[lawson]

I am looking at hotels in Switzerland for one part of a Sept trip to Europe at present. I can get a room with shared bathroom and basically bunk beds for the price of a nice motel room with ensuite, kitchenette, TV etc here i.e approx $150 a night. I am going to the UK because it's rather cheap for us right now exchange rate wise - it is still a lot more expensive than here though.

I do wonder if the rising US dollar will effect tourism in the US just as much as Trump.

Anyway the El Monte business is RV sales as well as rentals and a strong component of rental, like sales. is domestic. The most popular rental lengths are 1 to 3 days an 4 to 7 days respectively I am unsure of the domestic/international split but supposedly domestic is a large portion. Time will tell. I am looking to top up.

[RupertBear]

Be Greedy when others are Fearful. Disc-Now Hold. Just doing a BP, but I favour the whole camper van rather than just the glass windows.

You probably bought some of mine Couta! :D I am still holding I just skimmed a few of the top for my peace of mind after watching my OHE holding going down down down. :eek2: hope to buy back in if it goes lower. ;)

[BlackPeter]

Be Greedy when others are Fearful. Disc-Now Hold. Just doing a BP, but I favour the whole camper van rather than just the glass windows.

couta ... I learned that from you ;)! But yes, my current holding in MGP is sort of XXL

Looking at THL's trend chart ... yes, it was probably just time again for the SP to touch and straddle around the MA100. I think the chances are good it goes up again.

Discl: hold (though just a small parcel)

[iceman]

I am looking at hotels in Switzerland for one part of a Sept trip to Europe at present. I can get a room with shared bathroom and basically bunk beds for the price of a nice motel room with ensuite, kitchenette, TV etc here i.e approx $150 a night. I am going to the UK because it's rather cheap for us right now exchange rate wise - it is still a lot more expensive than here though.

I do wonder if the rising US dollar will effect tourism in the US just as much as Trump.

Anyway the El Monte business is RV sales as well as rentals and a strong component of rental, like sales. is domestic. The most popular rental lengths are 1 to 3 days an 4 to 7 days respectively I am unsure of the domestic/international split but supposedly domestic is a large portion. Time will tell. I am looking to top up.

Half of El Monte's business is international tourists, mainly from Europe. Majority of Road Bear customers are international

[black knat]

Look, no reason to find excuses. It is a fact that NZ is a very expensive destination for overseas tourist (as well, but not just due to the high NZ$), it is a fact that at least some tourist operators like to exploit shortages with shameless overpricing. Sure - not everybody, but you need only a few to spoil it for all. It doesn't matter to tourists whether these high prices are due to greed, inefficiency, too high costs for the host or other reasons, they just go next time somewhere else.

It is as well a fact that the clean and green reputation of our country is shining every day a bit less ... too many unswimmable and less attractive rivers and beaches, too many algae blooms and too much spraying and overstocking going on in the countryside.

Again - no need for excuses .... we can either fix the problems and keep our (still rather good) international reputation, or we can close our eyes, keep telling us how great we are and be surprised if tourists start looking for greener pastures.

I guess - even exploiting the Trump factor goes only that far ...

I was not putting forward an "excuse". I was just explaining why I don't think there is wide spread "exploitation" of tourists going on. My perception is that increased costs of accommodation etc in NZD terms have been modest except for limited exceptions. Guests from the UK and to a lesser extent Europe will be feeling that things are more expensive here - but that is largely a function of the exchange rates. There is no evidence of any drop off in demand - far from it.

And so what if NZ is currently are seen as expensive by the Europeans? I think NZ is increasingly seen as a top end destination for tourists from a wide range of destinations - not least the Chinese.

[JeremyALD]

I was not putting forward an "excuse". I was just explaining why I don't think there is wide spread "exploitation" of tourists going on. My perception is that increased costs of accommodation etc in NZD terms have been modest except for limited exceptions. Guests from the UK and to a lesser extent Europe will be feeling that things are more expensive here - but that is largely a function of the exchange rates. There is no evidence of any drop off in demand - far from it.

And so what if NZ is currently are seen as expensive by the Europeans? I think NZ is increasingly seen as a top end destination for tourists from a wide range of destinations - not least the Chinese.

I agree NZ tourism numbers are very positive and will continue to be so for a while yet.

[Beagle]

Roger, I noticed during our recent visits to Europe more and more that life in Europe is (for somebody used to NZ prices and thinking in NZ$) quite modestly priced.

And yes - I talked about Europe, not the UK ... I know the UK is dear (well, maybe less so after the BREXIT decision ...) ... but I find it anyway difficult to understand how anybody might want to live or holiday there ...

I would love to go to Switzerland but my wife isn't so keen. We looked at nice hotels there in the shoulder season, $400 a night, about the same as you'd pay for a good hotel in Queenstown in the peak summer season.
London was about the same for a decent hotel when I looked last time, (not into staying in hovels with shares facilities to keep the price down), but acknowledge everyone has different tastes.
I really don't see what the issue is with N.Z. prices but I acknowledge that travel to certain destinations in the world is a lot cheaper than N.Z., but that's always been that way.
Bottom line is tourists are coming to little ol clean and green and more importantly SAFE little ol N.Z. in droves so there isn't any issue other than how to cope with them all.

Returning to the main concern, yes I think Trump's somewhat bizarre approach is putting some people off going to America so I think the market has quite fairly expressed its concern to about the right level until such time as the company confirms things are on track with the new acquisition. I rate THL a cautious hold at this point but not without some execution risk.

[lawson]

Half of El Monte's business is international tourists, mainly from Europe. Majority of Road Bear customers are international

Thanks Iceman, that rings a bell but I have a mind like a sieve so I forget where I saw it. if I recall correctly 25% of El Monte's revenue comes from RV sales and 75% of revenue comes from the rental business? Based on your info half of their tourist rental numbers are international and they also have a divison that doesn't rent to tourists but to the entertainment industry albeit I think that's very small. I do think there will be downward pressure on the international visitor numbers to the US. However, whether it is sufficient to impact the reasonably conservative 2017 targets well that's a question for wiser men than I.

[couta1]

Hit $3.50 a minute ago, got my buy in wrong on this one I reckon, just as well I didn't do a normal Couta type buy in.(Thanks Roger for your restraining influence whilst we had a catch up yesterday)

[JeremyALD]

Hit $3.50 a minute ago, got my buy in wrong on this one I reckon, just as well I didn't do a normal Couta type buy in.(Thanks Roger for your restraining influence whilst we had a catch up yesterday)

Yeah me too. Although I still think this has been oversold.

[Beagle]

Hit $3.50 a minute ago, got my buy in wrong on this one I reckon, just as well I didn't do a normal Couta type buy in.(Thanks Roger for your restraining influence whilst we had a catch up yesterday)

You're most welcome mate, its always a pleasure talking to you.

[macduffy]

RSi nearing 20 so it might be almost due for a rebound. But I don't buy in a downtrend!\

[JeremyALD]

You're most welcome mate, its always a pleasure talking to you.

Would you be selling down at this point Roger? It's over 25% of my portfolio so I'm starting to get a bit jittery, but to be honest I really do back this company and they've delivered well on their results and forcasts so far. It's not far off the SP before aquisition annoucements now.

[BlackPeter]

RSi nearing 20 so it might be almost due for a rebound. But I don't buy in a downtrend!\

MA200 is at 2.39 - i.e. technically they are not (yet) in a downtrend!

[BlackPeter]

Would you be selling down at this point Roger? It's over 25% of my portfolio so I'm starting to get a bit jittery, but to be honest I really do back this company and they've delivered well on their results and forcasts so far. It's not far off the SP before aquisition annoucements now.

Different people have different views on diversification ... I typically get nervous when one of my holdings raises above 10% of my total investment, but this is just me.

I don't think anybody can tell you whether today is a good time to sell (they might well bounce on the 350 or on the MA200 (i.e. around 340), but long term would I not think that THL is after its stellar and long run still a good candidate for such a large exposure ...

I guess - sure, a forward PE of 11.3 and a forward CAGR of 10 still looks quite attractive, but then, it is not the only beautiful girl in town ...

[couta1]

Would you be selling down at this point Roger? It's over 25% of my portfolio so I'm starting to get a bit jittery, but to be honest I really do back this company and they've delivered well on their results and forcasts so far. It's not far off the SP before aquisition annoucements now. All the technicals say oversold, especially if it finishes the day at current price, don't be impulsive, remember it's a divvy paying company, not a lofty make a profit in 5 yrs tech stock. 25% of portfolio, not a problem in my book. PS-A normal Couta type buy in I referred to above means 50% plus of portfolio.

[JeremyALD]

Thanks guys :)

[sb9]

Bodes well DRP strike price though, guess gotta look on the brighter side :)

[Beagle]

Would you be selling down at this point Roger? It's over 25% of my portfolio so I'm starting to get a bit jittery, but to be honest I really do back this company and they've delivered well on their results and forcasts so far. It's not far off the SP before aquisition annoucements now.

I see it as a hold now mate. To be honest about it I sold half mine at $3.90 cum divvy, (sorry the hound doesn't always bark when he makes a trade one way or the other) based on Milford's volume they might still have on offer and concerns that the American acquisition is debt funded and may be impacted a little bit by factors related to the new administration.
I don't see it as a sell now at this price but I'm not buying back the shares I sold earlier either. The sale I made was consistent with my main methodology of mitigation of perceived risk, notwithstanding the growth story. As you point out they have a very good record with extracting synergies and efficiencies from previous acquisitions so I am confident over the medium / long term they will repeat that but there could be the possibility of some short term challenges which is what couta1 and I chatted about yesterday.

On the whole diversification thing, that's something each person has to decide for themselves. The Bible teaches us to invest in seven or eight things because no man should be so proud as to be so sure of himself about the future, only God knows the future for sure...I believe in the Bible as the ultimate source of wisdom and truth so I stick to that principle and won't have more than one seventh in any one stock, although I might be a tiny fraction over that (currently 14.7% of my portfolio in SUM at present, bad dog !). I think our friend Couta1 who's also a great believer in the good book must have a different translation to me LOL. I like my Wellington friend a lot and I am sure this diversification thing will be the source of some further good natured ribbing between us going forward :) Here's some wisdom from the good book, what does the Bible have to say about investing ? Enjoy :)
http://www.biblemoneymatters.com/what-does-the-bible-have-to-say-about-investing/

[RTM]

I'm going to hold as well Jeremy, in fact I am considering buying a few more as if I like a company I am quite happy to average down as I have done to good effect with a number of shares most recently AIR and FBU. However its only 2.7% of my portfolio......

I don't know where you are at with your life cycle....I have retired....and would not be happy with any stock reaching 25% of my portfolio, unless it was by stella growth. If you are not in the red....you could consider selling a few for a smaller profit ? I certainly felt having smaller allocations to any particular stock was beneficial with the recent FBU (3%) downgrade. HBL is my biggest at 14%...and that makes me a little nervous. My average is a bit over 3%...and I hold 35 stocks...NZ and OZ.

Some would call it diworseification.......

[macduffy]

MA200 is at 2.39 - i.e. technically they are not (yet) in a downtrend!

Thanks for the technicals, BP, not my strong point. For my practical purposes, a stock whose shareprice trends down for several days in a row - is in a downtrend!

:cool:

[percy]

Today the sp is $3.55.The 100day EMA is $3.67 so the sp is below that,however it is above the 200 day EMA which is $3.42.
A year ago the sp was $2.60,two years ago the sp was $1.60 and five years ago the sp was 61 cents.
So the sp remains in a very strong long term up trend.
Had I been planning a trip for the last few years to USA I would still be going.Worldwide we are seeing an ageing population,either retired or coming up for retirement.They love to travel,so there are huge tailwinds in this sector.I was underweighted in this sector so I doubled my THL holding recently.I also hold MCK.
I think the Chairman Rob Campbell has the ability to attract a strong board,and THL's management is good too.
I am therefore "well positioned."

[macduffy]

I like THL too, percy. My "downtrend" stance relates to whether or not THL is a good Buy now. In my opinion, not yet.

[percy]

I like THL too, percy. My "downtrend" stance relates to whether or not THL is a good Buy now. In my opinion, not yet.

Agreed.........But as a long term holder I am not a seller.

[Beagle]

Looking at the depth there's a little u beside the bid at $3.51 which stands for undisclosed buyer (minimum of $100K value buy order), possibly Couta1 :D at that buy price if that gives anyone some comfort for the weekend. I don't think we can completely discount the heightened geopolitical risk around Syria and North Korea at present as not having the potential to hinder tourism if the U.S. gets drawn into a protracted military campaign directly against either / both regime's. I remain cautious and watchful.

[Jinx]

I don't think we can completely discount the heightened geopolitical risk around Syria and North Korea at present as not having the potential to hinder tourism if the U.S. gets drawn into a protracted military campaign directly against either / both regime's. I remain cautious and watchful.

Lots of people can't even point to Syria on a map. People travel if they want to travel imo. For the Nz profit we are seen as a super safe nation so we get more business. As for the US profit I think most people in the US travel regardless of how many bombs trump drops on Assad

[couta1]

Looking at the depth there's a little u beside the bid at $3.51 which stands for undisclosed buyer (minimum of $100K value buy order), possibly Couta1 :D at that buy price if that gives anyone some comfort for the weekend. I don't think we can completely discount the heightened geopolitical risk around Syria and North Korea at present as not having the potential to hinder tourism if the U.S. gets drawn into a protracted military campaign directly against either / both regime's. I remain cautious and watchful. Forget about the u $3.51 mate, I picked up a few more this morning at $3.46, should have been my normal self and got stuck in, it's bounced nicely this arvo, perhaps Milford are having a break from selling today.

[Beagle]

Hopefully you successfully picked the bottom mate.

[Sideshow Bob]

Hopefully you successfully picked the bottom mate.

What do they say about bottoms? The only thing you get from trying to pick bottoms is smelly fingers.......

[couta1]

Hopefully you successfully picked the bottom mate. The other thing to remember is the stock shed a 10c divvy just 10 days ago, so part of the drop is because of that.

[ShouldHaveHeld]

picking your bottom must have felt good at 3.46!

[couta1]

picking your bottom must have felt good at 3.46! For sure, and after all some dirty habits can end up smelling of roses.

[Fox]

Strong bounce off of the 200 day EMA sitting @ $3.44 today, which has been an intact support for the last bull run, so no serious damage done. Looked like a good buy in today Couta, well done mate.

[Beagle]

Forget about the u $3.51 mate, I picked up a few more this morning at $3.46, should have been my normal self and got stuck in, it's bounced nicely this arvo, perhaps Milford are having a break from selling today.

Nice one mate, the very next day the second and third digits are round the other way, $3.64 when I looked a few minutes ago :)

[JeremyALD]

Strike price of $3.51 I'm pretty happy with that :D thanks guys for encouraging me to hold! Was glad to see the bounce yesterday. I might sell down some soon to balance out portfolio but I'm looking forward to the next update.

[Beagle]

As I suggested earlier in this thread, Milford have been selling aggressively, as low as $3.54 ex dividend in recent days !
They still have over 12% of the company shares which by anyone's interpretation is still a very meaningful stake.
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/256593.pdf

This substantial overhang isn't going away anytime soon. In conjunction with the previously discussed possible implications regarding tourism to the U.S. I remain cautious in the short term.

[JeremyALD]

Yeah I agree I've sold some off today but still keeping a large holding as happy to hold the rest :) At a 15% portfolio now which I'm comfortable with.

[Hectorplains]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/91937029/tourist-arrival-numbers-could-be-subsiding

A bit unexpected. THL have forecast an increasing of 5.4% for annual visitor arrivals.

[t.rexjr]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/91937029/tourist-arrival-numbers-could-be-subsiding

A bit unexpected. THL have forecast an increasing of 5.4% for annual visitor arrivals.

A 0.2% drop explained in the article by Easter being in April instead of March so hardly signs of doom. Add to that the Masters Games this month. You can throw that article in the bin.

[peat]

Easter was in March last year.
Also, capacity is increasingly an issue.

[t.rexjr]

Meanwhile AIR reports an increase in passengers numbers...


March market conditions Air New Zealand carried 1,613,000 passengers during the month of March, an increase of 5.2% compared to the same period last year.

[Hectorplains]

Meanwhile AIR reports an increase in passengers numbers...


That passenger increase is from the domestic market, AIRS international numbers are down by .7% - March YOY.

[Justin]

Tourism roars past dairy as NZ's biggest export earner

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11847120

[hardt]

Tourism roars past dairy as NZ's biggest export earner

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11847120

Unsure of why THL is trading at such a discount, while the market piles on hefty multiples in just about every other sector.

Would i be right in saying the geopolitical tensions are turning people away from this company?

Unless USA and/or NZ ends up a nuclear wasteland I don't see any issues with the tourism industry, nor would my money be on my mind if that were the case.

MCK/THL are my tourism stocks, great long term horizon.

[misterx]

Anyone know when the updates are going to be? Normally there should have been an earning update end of last month.

[iceman]

Tourism roars past dairy as NZ's biggest export earner

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11847120

These numbers are silly in my view. If I buy a long black or a Steinlager at Nelson airport waiting for my flight, it is apparently classed as tourism export earnings. Go figure !!

[macduffy]

These numbers are silly in my view. If I buy a long black or a Steinlager at Nelson airport waiting for my flight, it is apparently classed as tourism export earnings. Go figure !!

My conclusion, iceman, is that you should cut down on your long blacks and Steinlagers at Nelson airport!

;)

[Beagle]

These numbers are silly in my view. If I buy a long black or a Steinlager at Nelson airport waiting for my flight, it is apparently classed as tourism export earnings. Go figure !!



But if you weren't departing to earn overseas income you wouldn't be quaffing that coffee so it sort of is export earnings mate :)

[percy]

These numbers are silly in my view. If I buy a long black or a Steinlager at Nelson airport waiting for my flight, it is apparently classed as tourism export earnings. Go figure !!

Have a Scotch,then you will be adding to imports?

[Raz]

But if you weren't departing to earn overseas income you wouldn't be quaffing that coffee so it sort of is export earnings mate :)

People want to count everything or want you to favour their jurisdiction..feel like piggy in the middle..

They way i drink, export earnings before I fly away all the time is dwarfing what my US based firm earns haha. US tax advisor advise of wings of change in the US.. saying need to tweak and restructure to bring less earnings back home to keep IRS happy..what about the IRD..hmmm... while.... US fed official at a business meeting says they want business like mine, with a large US payroll to structured through the US and in turn encouraging pay lower income tax in the US or through the US state of Delaware... they are aiming to be the largest, most competitive tax haven option...I need another drink...

[Baa_Baa]

People want to count everything or want you to favour their jurisdiction..feel like piggy in the middle..

They way i drink, export earnings before I fly away all the time is dwarfing what my US based firm earns haha. US tax advisor advise of wings of change in the US.. saying need to tweak and restructure to bring less earnings back home to keep IRS happy..what about the IRD..hmmm... while.... US fed official at a business meeting says they want business like mine, with a large US payroll to structured through the US and in turn encouraging pay lower income tax in the US or through the US state of Delaware... they are aiming to be the largest, most competitive tax haven option...I need another drink...

You've had enough to drink. Come back later and tell us what you really meant. Lol.

I preferred the sober Raz.

[sb9]

I think its fairly safe to assume that Milford finished their selling for now...a big parcel transacted this arvo at 3.85...

[sb9]

I think its fairly safe to assume that Milford finished their selling for now...a big parcel transacted this arvo at 3.85...

Hmmm...spoke too soon.

[Yoda]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/92515638/almost-five-million-international-visitors-forecast-by-2023
hopefully a rise in SP too......

[Jinx]

From today's budget:

Tourism: $61 million towards a new $102 million tourisminfrastructure fund for regional New Zealand. $86 millionfor DOC tourism infrastructure around New Zealand.

I mean at this point the government is like subsidising THL's growth right? :t_up:

[JeremyALD]

From today's budget:

Tourism: $61 million towards a new $102 million tourisminfrastructure fund for regional New Zealand. $86 millionfor DOC tourism infrastructure around New Zealand.

I mean at this point the government is like subsidising THL's growth right? :t_up:

Heading back towards $4. I'm waiting on a USA Market update before potentially buying some more. You'd think strong NZ performance is set to continue for the foreseeable future.

[Justin]

When the USA market update? Thanks

[Justin]

Hi,anyone knows why there are 8 cents dropped today? Any news updated?

[JeremyALD]

Hi,anyone knows why there are 8 cents dropped today? Any news updated?

Presume its to do with the political climate in the U.K. and US. Plus the terror attack over the long weekend leaving some concerns about the world. Not surprised it's having a small impact on THL

[winner69]

Interesting article about thl - esp where the industry is in theCapital Cycle

http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976505422/tourism-holdings-motoring-through-the-capital-cycle.html

[JeremyALD]

Interesting article about thl - esp where the industry is in theCapital Cycle

http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976505422/tourism-holdings-motoring-through-the-capital-cycle.html

Interestig article but I don't agree fully.

The NZ caparvan market is profitable, but partly because of THLs expertise and fleet optimisation. I can't see companies flocking into their business model and creating competition because there's not a huge market in NZ in the first place and THL could essentially lower their prices and push them out of the market if they did enter. The whole industry here makes what 20m profit in NZ?

THL also has growth scheduled in the USA which is a huge market. I think there's more competition here, but the size of the market should bring plenty of opportunities.

The major risk is a decline in tourism and companies fighting for market share and to stay alive. THL has targeted 50m in 2020 and so far they're delivering :)

[winner69]

Interestig article but I don't agree fully.

The NZ caparvan market is profitable, but partly because of THLs expertise and fleet optimisation. I can't see companies flocking into their business model and creating competition because there's not a huge market in NZ in the first place and THL could essentially lower their prices and push them out of the market if they did enter. T he whole industry here makes what 20m profit in NZ?

THL also has growth scheduled in the USA which is a huge market. I think there's more competition here, but the size of the market should bring plenty of opportunities.

The major risk is a decline in tourism and companies fighting for market share and to stay alive. THL has targeted 50m in 2020 and so far they're delivering :)

I think the highlighted bits is what the article was alluding to - market gets profitable ...new entrants come in ...and prices / profits fall.

Otherwise generally agree with what you say

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/302846

Yet another profit upgrade - the good gets better!

[hardt]

Back to $4+ where it belongs...

[iceman]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/302846

Yet another profit upgrade - the good gets better!

Great stuff and brilliant to hear both NZ and USA are doing well. Will be very interesting to see numbers from the US when they're available

[winner69]

On track to that $50m - share price still not reflecting that

[Oliver Mander]

On track to that $50m - share price still not reflecting that

agree with winner, mr market definitely not reflecting the full value. I've got a target of over $6, based on this morning's upgrade and some fairly moderate growth assumptions into the future...taking another look at my own figures/assumptions at the moment in case I'm missing something. On current earnings, that would be a PE of 23, but in a couple of years, that PE will be well around 20 at that $6 price...so not beyond the bounds of reason for what could be considered a growth share...

(Disc: Hold)

[percy]

Positive announcement.
Exceed is such a lovely word,so much nicer than expect.
Means we remain "well positioned."

[Balance]

On track to that $50m - share price still not reflecting that

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/260306.pdf

Will be many wishing that Milford will continue to sell down their shareholdings and keep the price attractive for long term investors? :D

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/260306.pdf

Will be many wishing that Milford will continue to sell down their shareholdings and keep the price attractive for long term investors? :D

Saw that

Milford reducing holdings in many/several stocks lately

Run on the bank?

And Brian has been on the radio a lot lately pleading with people to join their Kiwisaver

[trader_jackson]

Saw that

Milford reducing holdings in many/several stocks lately

Run on the bank?

And Brian has been on the radio a lot lately pleading with people to join their Kiwisaver

Hmm... I thought they shut one of their funds off to new entries because it already had to much?

[Balance]

Hmm... I thought they shut one of their funds off to new entries because it already had to much?

Milford is sitting huge gains in THL so probably thought it's prudent to lighten up and realign portfolio.

Lesson learnt - Milford buying or selling does not = right thing to do any more.

BFW, WYN and DIL are glaring examples.

[Benny1]

Will be interesting to listen to the CEO of THL at the NZ Shareholders Assn meeting in Auckland tonight.

Certainly seems to be a company heading in the right direction, hasn't put a foot wrong for quite a while now...

[Justin]

Tourism Holdings raises annual earnings guidance as NZ enjoys bumper visitor numbers
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?objectid=11879953

[iceman]

Will be interesting to listen to the CEO of THL at the NZ Shareholders Assn meeting in Auckland tonight.

Certainly seems to be a company heading in the right direction, hasn't put a foot wrong for quite a while now...

Any feedback would be most welcome :-)

[JeremyALD]

It is looking very solid and good value at current SP. Curious about USA though, was the increase mainly due to NZ and the Lions tour? Statement didn't say a lot. Look forward to watching this one over the year. My favourite stock on the NZX currently.

[arc]

Watching the robot- HFT trades. They are hitting all shares that are currently "popular"
THl HLG and AIR have been attracting a lot of attention from these scalpers

[Leftfield]

Watching the robot- HFT trades. They are hitting all shares that are currently "popular"
THl HLG and AIR have been attracting a lot of attention from these scalpers

Ssssoooo what do are we meant to conclude by this?

[Benny1]

Any feedback would be most welcome :-)

Hi iceman, sorry for the delay been a bit busy!

Grant Webster's address was actually pretty short sharp and simple, unfortunately not too much in there that was new info I'll try to wrap it up:

THL is largest RV company in the world, they are in NZ Aussie USA and small franchise operations in Sth Africa and Japan. They are very keen on growing the Chinese market at the moment.

Last year bought EL Monte in the USA - seems to be settling in well
They also bought about 25% ( I think) of Roadtrippers- online planning app, he sees that side of the business as a real growth opportunity going forward ..
Also want to develop their Mighway business- He basically described it as the Airbnb of the RV world. Private owners of RV's can rent their vans out to THL customers, with THL taking a cut, says it will be great if they can become profitable at this too!

Revised their FY17 NPAT to around $29.5m he did't elaborate on the reason for the increase too much I have a suspicion it is probably related to the USA business.
Goal is still to achieve $50m NPAT by FY 2020 says this is based on some quite conservative goals, so is quite achievable with their current plans.

Developing a Prototype electric Campervan at the moment, sees this as definitely the direction the automobile world is heading.

Talked a lot about the digital development they are working on to allow customers to pre-plan their trips, you can pick up your van with a pre-programmed trip itinerary already to go! They have a tracking trial under way in Aussie which records your whole trip. They know where you are and what speed you are doing etc at all times.
They can also send warnings to you if you are approaching a low bridge or service station awning etc. He said since they have had this system operational not a singe Camper van has had any damage from striking something too low!
Saves heaps on Repair bills!

So to be honest, not a lot of meat to his presentation but good to see they are on track, I would assume to meet the FY2020 goals there could be room for some more acquisitions?

Cheers
Benny 1
(disc: Small Holder. Want more tho!)

[percy]

Benny1.
Thank you.

[JeremyALD]

Watching with interest if it will crack $4.05 to $4.10 this week. It's got up to $4 a couple of times and fallen back so we'll see. Such a strong performer it is tempting to pick up so more but will wait to see if it breaks resistance

[Justin]

Thank you Benny1.:t_up: Look like there will be self-driving and electric RV in the future soon.:eek2:

[iceman]

Thanks for the titbits Benny1.
Good to hear profits are coming out of USA. I think Roadtrippers and Mighway are the little businesses within the group that will be interesting to watch and see if they can really make them work. They have good potential.
Interesting also about the digital development, the way the World is going.
They may even get an "open for business" loan from HBL to fund it. Now then we´d very well positioned eh Percy :-)

[percy]

Thanks for the titbits Benny1.
Good to hear profits are coming out of USA. I think Roadtrippers and Mighway are the little businesses within the group that will be interesting to watch and see if they can really make them work. They have good potential.
Interesting also about the digital development, the way the World is going.
They may even get an "open for business" loan from HBL to fund it. Now then we´d very well positioned eh Percy :-)
Certainly would be..lol.

[Yoda]

Watching with interest if it will crack $4.05 to $4.10 this week. It's got up to $4 a couple of times and fallen back so we'll see. Such a strong performer it is tempting to pick up so more but will wait to see if it breaks resistance

winning the Americas cup seems to have boosted the SP yesterday . . Maybe an expectation of a few more tourists to NZ as a result, and good all round publicity for NZ. large turnover yesterday, and it has been quite flat for the last 6 months. Looks set to rise with new highs. It looks to get to $4.50 in the next few months, and then there is the 5% div.
$5 by Christmas anyone ? or too optimistic..........

[see weed]

winning the Americas cup seems to have boosted the SP yesterday . . Maybe an expectation of a few more tourists to NZ as a result, and good all round publicity for NZ. large turnover yesterday, and it has been quite flat for the last 6 months. Looks set to rise with new highs. It looks to get to $4.50 in the next few months, and then there is the 5% div.
$5 by Christmas anyone ? or too optimistic..........
Good aye. And they can all fly AIR:D.

[JeremyALD]

winning the Americas cup seems to have boosted the SP yesterday . . Maybe an expectation of a few more tourists to NZ as a result, and good all round publicity for NZ. large turnover yesterday, and it has been quite flat for the last 6 months. Looks set to rise with new highs. It looks to get to $4.50 in the next few months, and then there is the 5% div.
$5 by Christmas anyone ? or too optimistic..........

If the US business has a positive outlook and performance then I think it's definitely heading there. The NZ business is on fire and bar a recession it will continue to do very well.

[JeremyALD]

And she's off!

[Leftfield]

And she's off!

Nicely through the $4.00 resistance point. I'm a recent convert to THL and like that it isn't all about NZ, this is a well diversified International company with dominant positions in NZ, Australia and USA..... add to that it's digital diversification and things could get exciting.

[t.rexjr]

Nicely through the $4.00 resistance point. I'm a recent convert to THL and like that it isn't all about NZ, this is a well diversified International company with dominant positions in NZ, Australia and USA..... add to that it's digital diversification and things could get exciting.

Yeap a very well run and managed company, Am happy i got back in at the last dip after struggling to pin down my assessment of fair value (as i watched the sp disappear into the distance) Not without risks but plenty of value still there in the long haul as I see it.

[Justin]

New Zealand sharemarket rises amid broad-based buying
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11883905


Tourism Holdings' share price rose 2.2 per cent to a record high of $4.20.

Tourism Holdings rose 2.2 per cent to $4.20.

"It has been on a bit of a run recently, on pretty good volumes," Smalley said. "If it gets up to $4.30, on an adjusted basis that's the highest it has been since 1993 - we're looking at a 24-year high. "You'd have to be living under a rock to miss that tourism has taken over dairy as our biggest export earner. Investors are obviously thinking things are looking pretty good for the sector."

[Yoda]

Its been a bit quite on this thread...
. Looks like it will take out 4.30 tomorrow, and on up to 4.50 very soon if the trend rises are repeated. Bolly bands are tight. I predict a 5-10 % jump on the way, just by the basic chart and general tourism, and given that results are out this month. I have too many here anyway so wont be buying anymore.
Anyone else care to cristal ball gaze?

[JeremyALD]

Its been a bit quite on this thread...
. Looks like it will take out 4.30 tomorrow, and on up to 4.50 very soon if the trend rises are repeated. Bolly bands are tight. I predict a 5-10 % jump on the way, just by the basic chart and general tourism, and given that results are out this month. I have too many here anyway so wont be buying anymore.
Anyone else care to cristal ball gaze?

Agree with you. Things are certainly positive. As previously mentioned I'm keen to hear about the US business and how that is performing. I do think the sp will stall soon without further news

[sb9]

Nice price action before results out next week..boosted by large crossing of 250k at 4.32 a piece.

4.50 on results day perhaps??

[Leftfield]

Nice price action before results out next week..boosted by large crossing of 250k at 4.32 a piece.

4.50 on results day perhaps??

Yep. Bolli bands being squeezed and looking to break out - hopefully upwards and onwards. Disc Hold.

[Yoda]

Maybe some anticipation that there is a good result next week . Nice jump today. My second largest holding to NTL . Maybe i can get to no 3 in the SP contest :-) The US is a bit of a worry at the mo, so will be interesting to see what comes out of that as far as profits go.

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/305865

At first glance, pretty numbers to be pleased about..

* Fully imputed dividend of 11cps, bringing the full year dividend to 21cps (partially imputed) - up 11% on the pcp
* FY18 outlook positive; expected NPAT between $36M-39M. Update to be provided at our Annual Meeting
* The result is a record result for the Company. thl Chairman, Mr Rob Campbell, said, “in 2015 we set a target for the business to reach $30M NPAT in FY19. This goal assisted the business to direct energy in the areas that would really make a difference. It is pleasing for the business and shareholders to deliver to this target two years earlier than originally planned.”
* In December 2016, with the announcement of the El Monte acquisition and associated transactions, we announced a new target for the business - $50M NPAT in FY20. Already, within the six months since that announcement, we have, again, seen the business galvanise around that target.”

[JeremyALD]

Outstanding result. Forcast EBIT 36 - 39 million next year, awesome.

[Arbroath]

Great result - npat outlook, higher dividend, lower debt - all points towards another year of the share price firming - $5 by Xmas?

[bull....]

exceptional result , new backing campbell was the right move.

[bull....]

all looked good to me, aquisition potential looks best in the us road bear add-on or tourism side as they seem to provide best return on funds.
Still see it as a growth and income stock, cheap as chips when a good aquisition is made

new the aquisition would make them look cheap

[sb9]

new the aquisition would make them look cheap


exceptional result , new backing campbell was the right move.

hey bull, seem like you keep forgetting to add 'K' in front of your 'new' word :p

[bull....]

hey bull, seem like you keep forgetting to add 'K' in front of your 'new' word :p

lol guess in periods of excitement you forget things

[Leftfield]

Well done THL!! Particularly like their strong growth outside of NZ. This is now a very well balanced multinational company. I also like their foray into the digital world and their ability to become an airbnb of the RV world.

Based on these results THL currently undervalued. Roll on $5.00 plus.

Disc. Holding and happy.

[hardt]

perhaps a year or two of continual 20+% growth warrants a premium and not the absurd discount we've been seeing

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/263954.pdf

Stunning.

[Yoda]

Great result - npat outlook, higher dividend, lower debt - all points towards another year of the share price firming - $5 by Xmas?

More likely end of sept....IMHO

[Arbroath]

perhaps a year or two of continual 20+% growth warrants a premium and not the absurd discount we've been seeing

I have a conservative forward valuation target of $6.50-6.75 for 2020 when they have made $50m npat and are on 15x. They just have to keep executing well - of course there are risks but if the world/markets don't hit the skids then think $6+ is likely imho.

[Beagle]

Outstanding result. Forcast EBIT 36 - 39 million next year, awesome.

Agree and most pleasantly surprising. Factor in they have a long history of upgrading and beating forecasts and we could see low $40m's as early as FY18 in which case they might see their $50m forecast in FY19 well ahead of their FY20 target ! Kudos to Rob Campbell's leadership !

[Oliver Mander]

Well done THL!! Particularly like their strong growth outside of NZ. This is now a very well balanced multinational company. I also like their foray into the digital world and their ability to become an airbnb of the RV world.

Based on these results THL currently undervalued. Roll on $5.00 plus.

Disc. Holding and happy.

Stunning result. Strong growth continues...my own long-term valuation sits at over $7 now (with the updated forecasts), so would be expecting significant upside long-term. Love the diversity of earnings too, and the focus on simplifying the back office they seem to allude to in the US. Agree with left field that its turning into a mini-multinational...

Watch points may be debt levels = especially if they do another debt-fuelled acquisition to get their target of $50m by 2020. Diluted EPS may be a factor here as well.

But a relatively minor comment in context.

Disc: very happy holder :-)!

[hardt]

I have a conservative forward valuation target of $6.50-6.75 for 2020 when they have made $50m npat and are on 15x. They just have to keep executing well - of course there are risks but if the world/markets don't hit the skids then think $6+ is likely imho.

I valued it at $5.5 currently... bought some more this morning at 451.

[Beagle]

I valued it at $5.5 currently... bought some more this morning at 451.

Agree 100%. The way this is growing it should command a 2018 PE in the late teens which is supportive of mid $5 now so I also bought more at the open.

[sb9]

Nice price action before results out next week..boosted by large crossing of 250k at 4.32 a piece.

4.50 on results day perhaps??

Posted last week on 17th...pretty good prediction...;)

[percy]

perhaps a year or two of continual 20+% growth warrants a premium and not the absurd discount we've been seeing

Certainly does..THL eps growth is now a lot higher than their PE ratio.Very seldom do we see this.Means a huge margin of safety,as does the increasing divie..

I must thank Noodles for steering me and others into investing in THL.
I like the sector so much I also brought ATL in Aussie,just to be "well positioned."

[BlackPeter]

Sure - a good result, though revenue growth slightly below analyst predictions and RoE moving into the wrong direction (I know, only for buying their latest acquisition in the wrong season).

Wondering however about a bit too much excitement on this thread - haven't seen too many trends so far continuing upwards forever.

Just being curious - what could end the current growth? The next terrorist attack? Trumps "everybody but America is second" policies? The next economic downturn (whenever this is due)? The clear limitations of the NZ infrastructure?

Enjoy the ride while it lasts ... but in my view the best time to develop an exit strategy is now - and the best time to execute it might be at the peak ;) ...

[percy]

BP.Tourism is growing very quickly around the world.In NZ I see a great number of camper vans on the road,year round now.Not only overseas visitors but NZders travelling.
An aging world population with money and time on their hands will underpin this sector for years to come.
And young people are making greater use of cheaper air fares to travel the world.
At the peak? No way, the fun is just starting.!

[Beagle]

Agree with Percy on this one and I see congestion in key tourist spots only getting far worse than it already is in the future meaning people will be even more inclined towards getting away from congested hotels and hot spots and enjoying the great outdoors i.e. a greater propensity toward campervan rentals.
THL have a well established history of increasing guidance during the year so I think it is perfectly reasonable at this stage to work with the top end of existing guidance at $39m after tax which translates to eps of 32.45 cents per share. Apply whatever forward PE you think is appropriate and make your investment decision accordingly.
Looking further out than FY18 I see no reason to disbelieve their FY20 target of $50m and they'll probably get there sooner than that.

[Snow Leopard]

Personally I wish world tourism would collapse, there are too many people wandering round foreign countries who, quite frankly, did not ought to be allowed out of the own country (and mentally most of them don't leave their own country).

Good result though

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

PS Cornflakes is definitely not food, anytime of the day!

[minimoke]

Its been a long time coming but riding this one through their bad times has turned out to be a worthwhile move. 131% increase in value so content with that.

[percy]

Its been a long time coming but riding this one through their bad times has turned out to be a worthwhile move. 131% increase in value so content with that.

Well done...........

[JeremyALD]

Their annual report is a fantastic read. Really impressed with their Leadership and vision :)

[golden city]

Still happy to be in the game after four years. Feeling good

[janner]

Go on rub it in...

Recall you mentioning this... All those years ago... Grrrrr.. Never a holder...

But I do have " some " of my initial investment in HBL from then..

[janner]

Probably a good exorcise.. .

[golden city]

More likely heading to 5 dollar

[Jeanmarc93]

In the Financial Shareholder Annual review, THL reflect on gainsfrom the Lions Tour of approximately $500k, and it is expected to capture most of the upside of the Lions tour in FY18.

Roughly how much of this can we expect to see?
My calculations expect the $500k to be about a third of the total gains from the Lions tour, with perhaps another $1m to flow through in FY18.

[bull....]

In the Financial Shareholder Annual review, THL reflect on gainsfrom the Lions Tour of approximately $500k, and it is expected to capture most of the upside of the Lions tour in FY18.

Roughly how much of this can we expect to see?
My calculations expect the $500k to be about a third of the total gains from the Lions tour, with perhaps another $1m to flow through in FY18.

wouldnt worry about it, its hardly material just one off small change

[arc]

Another positive aspect is this companies performance in the US market

[percy]

Cheap airfares for young and old,an aging worldwide population with time and money means this sector is growing very rapidly.
Some interesting things to note.ATL Apollo Leisure in Aussie report forward bookings in all the countries they serve are well up on last year.
I also note The NZ Cruise sector is expecting to grow from $447 mil in 2016/17 to $640 mil in 2018/19 seasom,that is a massive 43.17%.
THL are certainly in the right sector,doing the right things.
We are "well positioned."

[iceman]

Cheap airfares for young and old,an aging worldwide population with time and money means this sector is growing very rapidly.
Some interesting things to note.ATL Apollo Leisure in Aussie report forward bookings in all the countries they serve are well up on last year.
I also note The NZ Cruise sector is expecting to grow from $447 mil in 2016/17 to $640 mil in 2018/19 seasom,that is a massive 43.17%.
THL are certainly in the right sector,doing the right things.
We are "well positioned."

I was at a meeting in Nelson yesterday where some numbers for Nelson airport were told, which support your statement Percy. In 1990, 17,000 passengers movements were recorded through NSN, this year they expect to reach 1 Million. I thought these numbers were pretty outrageous so had a closer look. As can be seen on this link, the increase all over the country is simply huge and is and will continue to benefit THL, as long as we as a country keep up and provide the infrastructure needed to deal with this growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_busiest_airports_in_New_Zealand#2011_P assenger_Numbers_.28Financial_Year_End.29

[percy]

I was at a meeting in Nelson yesterday where some numbers for Nelson airport were told, which support your statement Percy. In 1990, 17,000 passengers movements were recorded through NSN, this year they expect to reach 1 Million. I thought these numbers were pretty outrageous so had a closer look. As can be seen on this link, the increase all over the country is simply huge and is and will continue to benefit THL, as long as we as a country keep up and provide the infrastructure needed to deal with this growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_busiest_airports_in_New_Zealand#2011_P assenger_Numbers_.28Financial_Year_End.29

Thanks for the link,
Incredible.

[iceman]

Royal Caribbean and the cruise industry forecasting a 45% increase in tourist number for the coming cruise season from 230,000 to 345,000. Hopefully some of them will have a few days to spend in NZ and take advantage of the options THL has for them :-)

[Yoda]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1708/S01092/hospitality-tourism-industry-has-served-up-more-jobs.htm

more growth, more profits .... All good

[percy]

I drove through town yesterday.Had to drop into Craigs in Victoria St, and then pick up my book display from Papanui High School.
The number of camper vans on the road surprised me.
I no longer worry about them being Britz/Maui or the opposition Apollo, as I have shares in both companies.!

[Justin]

I drove through town yesterday.Had to drop into Craigs in Victoria St, and then pick up my book display from Papanui High School.
The number of camper vans on the road surprised me.
I no longer worry about them being Britz/Maui or the opposition Apollo, as I have shares in both companies.!

hi percy，which one is ur favorite ,thl or apollo?

[winner69]

hi percy，which one is ur favorite ,thl or apollo?

Buy the looks of these reviews you wouldn't want an Apollo one
https://www.rankers.co.nz/experiences/1371-Apollo_Motorhome_Holidays

Not that I know much about campervans. Only experience was years ago when hired one for three weeks in the UK. A nice new VW with a pop up top. Really cool

Had to return it to London so left wife and kid in Bristol and went for a burn along the M4. Wondered how fast it could really go - 100 mph easy oeasy - but hells bells a bus overtook me. Didn't even get lost in London and that's before the days of these GPS,

[percy]

hi percy，which one is ur favorite ,thl or apollo?

THL as I have owned it longer,and have a better knowledge of the company.
Also I like their dividend.
I don't know which will perform better in future.

[Yoda]

Any thoughts what the oil leak might do for THL,. ? Just a small blip in the bigger picture i expect. A drop in price might be a buying opportunity before 2/10 .
thats a lot of tourists being very upset....

[JeremyALD]

Any thoughts what the oil leak might do for THL,. ? Just a small blip in the bigger picture i expect. A drop in price might be a buying opportunity before 2/10 .
thats a lot of tourists being very upset....

Yeah I don't think it will have much of an impact outside of inconvenience. Great stock to own. Main risk remains US and North Korea so I won't get too overexposed at this stage, although this remains my largest investment. Management is really running the business extremely well.

[Yoda]

A few more buyers appearing today, probably trying to get the Divi. Looks like it might go a little higher before the cut off .

[Yoda]

And edging for an all time high..... And a nice Divi.

[couta1]

And edging for an all time high..... And a nice Divi. That's why, because of the loading up of the divvy, however a lot of solid stocks are not behaving very well of late after having shed their divvy eg AIR/MCY/Spk.

[Yoda]

That's why, because of the loading up of the divvy, however a lot of solid stocks are not behaving very well of late after having shed their divvy eg AIR/MCY/Spk.
Agreed. A number of people sell on ex div day, of course just in case, and buy back lower but im not sure i want to try that. It seems a bit of a trick, and takes some good calculating to make it work. Do you do that sometimes? I see Rodger has posted that before .

[JeremyALD]

Agreed. A number of people sell on ex div day, of course just in case, and buy back lower but im not sure i want to try that. It seems a bit of a trick, and takes some good calculating to make it work. Do you do that sometimes? I see Rodger has posted that before .

There is a movement towards growth stocks at the moment so I wouldn't do that with THL. I'm expecting another strong update Mid October to keep things pushing along.

[Oliver Mander]

There is a movement towards growth stocks at the moment so I wouldn't do that with THL. I'm expecting another strong update Mid October to keep things pushing along.

Looks like Jeremy's "strong update" has arrived early. Good rise today...be interesting to see whether that tempts a few to sell tomorrow. (nb - I won't be one of the sellers...)

[Scrunch]

Looks like Jeremy's "strong update" has arrived early. Good rise today...be interesting to see whether that tempts a few to sell tomorrow. (nb - I won't be one of the sellers...)

If a 5.1% increase (+24c) for the day is a good increase, what's a big or great increase?

[cymonger]

Fabulous day for one of the the most well positioned stocks on the exchange. Whether you want to simply use the chart, the dividend, the massive growth that is not slowing down (and won't, barring some global catastrophe), congrats to the forward thinking holders who see this stock for what it is and what it will continue to be.

[Yoda]

Fabulous day for one of the the most well positioned stocks on the exchange. Whether you want to simply use the chart, the dividend, the massive growth that is not slowing down (and won't, barring some global catastrophe), congrats to the forward thinking holders who see this stock for what it is and what it will continue to be.

Hay first post Cymonger.welcome to the party!

[cymonger]

Hay first post Cymonger.welcome to the party!


Thanks!! Been lurking on these boards for a long time. I've been in NZ for three years and these boards have provided some invaluable advice. Bought in at $4 here and haven't looked back!

[Beagle]

Seems to be a lot of speculation emerging that we may be staring down the barrel at the end of this Bull market...



Someone forgot to tell the institutional investor buying 500,000 shares after the close of market yesterday at a premium to closing price and another 1,000,000 shares at $5.00 at 5.01 p.m. today. Plenty of demand for these best of breed puppies.

[Justin]

thanks beagle，more confident to hold for further long period，and where to get those information，thanks

[Pricey]

https://stocknessmonster.com/ gives you the trades, I assume Beagle is assuming their institutional trades based on the value (?).

[sb9]

Someone forgot to tell the institutional investor buying 500,000 shares after the close of market yesterday at a premium to closing price and another 1,000,000 shares at $5.00 at 5.01 p.m. today. Plenty of demand for these best of breed puppies.

And to think of it was only around 4.48-4.50s range not long ago like 10 days back or so....price soon to be with 5 handle.

[percy]

I lightened up a few yesterday.

[bull....]

over 5 soon cheap still

[couta1]

over 5 soon cheap still And you also said Spk was cheap at $3.90, cheap is in the eye of the beholder.

[Jantar]

over 5 soon cheap still When THL announced that their USA aquisitions alone would double the eps over three years, the price was sitting at $3.45. On that basis we should see a steady rise to around $7 by the end of 2019.

$5 is still cheap

[bull....]

And you also said Spk was cheap at $3.90, cheap is in the eye of the beholder.

lol ya i did once mths ago but tthings change and i mentioned zillions of time as you know 3.90 was big hurdle to get over now thats why people need to continually monitor companies and change there views if conditions change i dont know if buy and hold for ever is really relevant anymore? therefore always dyor and make up your own mind

[iceman]

When THL announced that their USA aquisitions alone would double the eps over three years, the price was sitting at $3.45. On that basis we should see a steady rise to around $7 by the end of 2019.

$5 is still cheap

I agree with you Jantar. As long as THL will implement their US (and NZ) strategies successfully with the resulting increases in EPS, we should see a steady appreciation in both SP and dividends. THL is my biggest holding and I have no intention to sell for now.

[couta1]

lol ya i did once mths ago but tthings change and i mentioned zillions of time as you know 3.90 was big hurdle to get over now thats why people need to continually monitor companies and change there views if conditions change i dont know if buy and hold for ever is really relevant anymore? therefore always dyor and make up your own mind Nothing's changed with SPK, just boring and consistent, it's just because it's controlled by big overseas fish who use it as a money parking spot according to currency fluctuations.

[garfy]

I do not understand.... what has happened.... sp 4.96 before 5pm.... immediately after sp 5.00......?

[BlackPeter]

I do not understand.... what has happened.... sp 4.96 before 5pm.... immediately after sp 5.00......?

Somebody bought at 5:13pm 350k shares for $5.00 each:

9212

Funds on a spending spree?

[Scrunch]

Somebody bought at 5:13pm 350k shares for $5.00 each:

Funds on a spending spree?

Possibly, or window-dressing a funds positions. Its end of month, quarter and 6mth (March year). The fund may want to say its invested in all these "great" stocks. They may also have fund rules that mean the $5 trade becomes the end of month/quarter used for calculating returns.
0.

[BlackPeter]

Possibly, or window-dressing a funds positions. Its end of month, quarter and 6mth (March year). The fund may want to say its invested in all these "great" stocks. They may also have fund rules that mean the $5 trade becomes the end of month/quarter used for calculating returns.
0.

True ... it was a quite significant date for accounting - however they would not have had to invest $1.75m to do some window dressing. Buying some hundred shares at market (instead of buying hundreds of thousands off market) would have had a better effect to that regards. Most systems don't even show the $5 as end of day trading (due to it being off market and outside of trading hours) but stick with the $4.96.

I think its more likely somebody really wanted to buy these shares at that price for investment purposes vs playing games ... but obviously - only time will tell, whether it was a wise investment ;);

[Beagle]

1,000,000 shares on Thursday and 500,000 shares on Wednesday transacted at the same price and manner after market close so definitely not end of quarter window dressing, as institution looking to build a stake through a negotiated off market price. This also explains the sudden strength in THL's price this week, buying has probably been on market during normal trading hours too. Indeed just expanding on that THL started the week at just $4.63 and has risen, (if you count $5.00 as the last trade as some websites do) a whopping 8% this week to $5.00, and that in a week when political uncertainty reigned supreme.
Further, the SP rise really only shifted into top gear on Wednesday when it opened at $4.73 so the vast bulk of the weeks gain came in the last 3 days, (all three of which included significant off market transfers after the close).

I think that we can conclude that a stakeholder is looking to significantly add to their position as quickly as the market will allow it too. Takeover coming soon ? Just a thought :D

[iceman]

1,000,000 shares on Thursday and 500,000 shares on Wednesday transacted at the same price and manner after market close so definitely not end of quarter window dressing, as institution looking to build a stake through a negotiated off market price. This also explains the sudden strength in THL's price this week, buying has probably been on market during normal trading hours too. Indeed just expanding on that THL started the week at just $4.63 and has risen, (if you count $5.00 as the last trade as some websites do) a whopping 8% this week to $5.00, and that in a week when political uncertainty reigned supreme.
Further, the SP rise really only shifted into top gear on Wednesday when it opened at $4.73 so the vast bulk of the weeks gain came in the last 3 days, (all three of which included significant off market transfers after the close).

I think that we can conclude that a stakeholder is looking to significantly add to their position as quickly as the market will allow it too. Takeover coming soon ? Just a thought :D

Interesting mate. Not sure about takeover but definitely someone is after a large chunk. I am not surprised. This is probably one of the better investments currently on the NZX as far as I'm concerned. The stated profit goal in next 2 years equates to about 40-41 cps, depending on DRP uptake.. That should see dividends increase to 35-36 cps by 2020, unless they use the cash for further acquisitions (which would see eps rise even further one hopes). This most definitely is one share and one industry that I want to be in at the moment.

[Justin]

Tourism Holdings' Airbnb of motor homes expanding in New Zealand

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?objectid=11930823&ref=twitter&from=timeline&isappinstalled=0

[Yoda]

Thanks Justin, all very encouraging . Every bit helps , and this would be pure office work with no vehicles to maintain , so low overheads more profit. Correct ?

[JeremyALD]

Australia GM has sold down over 300k worth of shares, half total holding...should we read anything into this?

[Beagle]

Probably he realises that a bit of diversification in one's portfolio is a good thing. I think its easy to over read / overreact to insiders selling.
Classic case in point, one of my mates who is sadly banned from here but an active participant in another forum was all over me giving me advice to quit ATM when the CEO sold down a while back in the mid $2 mark. Thankfully I thanked him for his opinion and told him I'd watch the TA signals. I think that's a sound strategy in this case too and in AIR last week also.

[JeremyALD]

Probably he realises that a bit of diversification in one's portfolio is a good thing. I think its easy to over read / overreact to insiders selling.
Classic case in point, one of my mates who is sadly banned from here but an active participant in another forum was all over me giving me advice to quit ATM when the CEO sold down a while back in the mid $2 mark. Thankfully I thanked him for his opinion and told him I'd watch the TA signals. I think that's a sound strategy in this case too and in AIR last week also.

Agree Beagle looking forward to the ASM :)

[Benny1]

Looking forward to the ASM too!!! Especially if the food is anywhere near as good as the OCA meeting a few weeks ago at the same venue!

Just a quick question...does anyone on here rent out their own campervans under the THL Mighway platform?
Would like to know if its a good thing to get into?

[Benny1]

Been a bit of a sell off over the last day and a half?

Nervous investors with the whole North Korea thing happening?
Or is Winston going to ban all from foreigners driving on our roads???:D

[peat]

Been a bit of a sell off over the last day and a half?


North America not going so well ??
Sth Island at capacity .

[Benny1]

North America not going so well ??
Sth Island at capacity .

Just had a look at Stocknessmonster...looks very low volume ...so probably just some small profit taking going on....

[BlackPeter]

From a TA perspective: Just touched the MA30 (which it does from time to time) - no worries (yet).

From a risk / reward perspective: There are clearly some signs around that the industry is reaching some (local) limits: capacity constraints in NZ, anti tourism sentiment in NZ (remember the outcry every time a tourist causes an accident - nobody cares though when Kiwis are killing Kiwis on our roads), US tourism taking a dent, a number of airlines reducing flights and / or going bust this year (Air Berlin, Alitalia, Monarch). Could these all be clear indications for tourism reaching the peak? I guess they could ... but no - there is only one direction for THL - and this is up - is it?

On the other hand - a dropping NZD is good for THL.

Anyway - the stars are not any more aligned, but I am sure the market will sort it out.

[JeremyALD]

From a TA perspective: Just touched the MA30 (which it does from time to time) - no worries (yet).

From a risk / reward perspective: There are clearly some signs around that the industry is reaching some (local) limits: capacity constraints in NZ, anti tourism sentiment in NZ (remember the outcry every time a tourist causes an accident - nobody cares though when Kiwis are killing Kiwis on our roads), US tourism taking a dent, a number of airlines reducing flights and / or going bust this year (Air Berlin, Alitalia, Monarch). Could these all be clear indications for tourism reaching the peak? I guess they could ... but no - there is only one direction for THL - and this is up - is it?

On the other hand - a dropping NZD is good for THL.

Anyway - the stars are not any more aligned, but I am sure the market will sort it out.

NZ at capacity is kind of a good thing for THL. If you can't get a hotel why not get a campervan? The NZ business remains very strong and will continue to do very well for the next few years.

The major concern has always been the US. Undoubtedly there's been a Trump Slump this year driven by policies, uncertainty and a high US dollar. In particular the Canadian dollar has been weak. I was doing some research and Europeans have not been visiting as much this year and are down about 10% YOY.

In saying this THL said they are on track for 50m by 2020 and I have no reason they won't achieve this, unless a war breaks put with NK in which case this stock will get hammered, but then so will a lot of others.

[Beagle]

NZ at capacity is kind of a good thing for THL. If you can't get a hotel why not get a campervan? The NZ business remains very strong and will continue to do very well for the next few years.

The major concern has always been the US. Undoubtedly there's been a Trump Slump this year driven by policies, uncertainty and a high US dollar. In particular the Canadian dollar has been weak. I was doing some research and Europeans have not been visiting as much this year and are down about 10% YOY.

In saying this THL said they are on track for 50m by 2020 and I have no reason they won't achieve this, unless a war breaks put with NK in which case this stock will get hammered, but then so will a lot of others.

Well summed up mate. I think THL are fairly priced at present. Recent surge was surprising, a bit more realism now in the SP.

[percy]

NZ at capacity is kind of a good thing for THL. If you can't get a hotel why not get a campervan? The NZ business remains very strong and will continue to do very well for the next few years.

The major concern has always been the US. Undoubtedly there's been a Trump Slump this year driven by policies, uncertainty and a high US dollar. In particular the Canadian dollar has been weak. I was doing some research and Europeans have not been visiting as much this year and are down about 10% YOY.

In saying this THL said they are on track for 50m by 2020 and I have no reason they won't achieve this, unless a war breaks put with NK in which case this stock will get hammered, but then so will a lot of others.

Well Northland was not at full capacity last week.Plenty of motels with vacancy signs at Opononi,Paihia,Whangerei and Orewa.

[JeremyALD]

Well Northland was not at full capacity last week.Plenty of motels with vacancy signs at Opononi,Paihia,Whangerei and Orewa.

Maybe all the tourists were staying in campervans? ;)

[winner69]

Well Northland was not at full capacity last week.Plenty of motels with vacancy signs at Opononi,Paihia,Whangerei and Orewa.

Peak tourism is an often used term these days. Even gurus like Air NZ's Luxon uses it.

Tourism activity at record levels but 'peak tourism' implies future growth in NZ might not be as strong as in the past few years.

[JeremyALD]

Peak tourism is an often used term these days. Even gurus like Air NZ's Luxon uses it.

Tourism activity at record levels but 'peak tourism' implies future growth in NZ might not be as strong as in the past few years.

It won't be Winner. I think the expectations from THL are a 4% YOY uplift which sounds reasonable (it's been around 11% the last few years).

[winner69]

It won't be Winner. I think the expectations from THL are a 4% YOY uplift which sounds reasonable (it's been around 11% the last few years).

Exactly as I said - future growth won't be as strong as in past few years

[winner69]

Maybe all the tourists were staying in campervans? ;)

Possibly were ....Jucy ones

[Beagle]

$50m profit target for 2020 speaks for itself and THL have an excellent track record of achieving their profit growth targets well ahead of the planned timeline. That's what is "Jucy" about this one :)

[percy]

Possibly were ....Jucy ones

When tripping around I amuse myself counting company's camper vans I see.
Average seems to be 8 Maui/Britz,4 Apollo,2 Jucy.

[winner69]

$50m profit target for 2020 speaks for itself and THL have an excellent recenttrack record of achieving their profit growth targets well ahead of the planned timeline. That's what is "Jucy" about this one :)

........I added recent to your post

The good thing though is the current share price doesn't really reflect that $50m profit.