THL - Tourism Holdings

[trader_jackson]

........I added recent to your post

The good thing though is the current share price doesn't really reflect that $50m profit.

Would be a worry if they didn't have a good recent track record, given the all time highs of tourism etc... at least THL is taking great and full advantage of the good times, unlike how some construction related companies still can't seem to 'make it's when times are booming the most.

On another note, Forsyth removed THL from their "conviction list" as they believed it is "fully valued" (for what ever their word is worth)... no wonder the share price has only been going down.

[JeremyALD]

Would be a worry if they didn't have a good recent track record, given the all time highs of tourism etc... at least THL is taking great and full advantage of the good times, unlike how some construction related companies still can't seem to 'make it's when times are booming the most.

On another note, Forsyth removed THL from their "conviction list" as they believed it is "fully valued" (for what ever their word is worth)... no wonder the share price has only been going down.

Don't forget THL paid a fully imputed dividend of 11 cents so it really hasn't dropped that much off recent highs

[Valuegrowth]

As it has extended lot it may have pullback or correction during next 12 months. Once bear market set it also should go down. So far it had a major up trend. Trend could reverse at any time.

[hardt]

Fast forward to 2020 - With 50m earnings ( 40-42cps ) plenty will look back in hindsight and admit it was still cheap even after such a large run up... same goes for Synlait and FPH to some degree.

[Yoda]

Milford holding 15 mil in june and 8 mil in october so sold off ~50 % , from their anounsments , correct ? Mind you , i think they sold a lot of ATM as well just befor they started to go up , never the less, am i reading that right ?
June 21
For last disclosure,—
(a) total number held in class: 14,808,202

Oct 2nd
For this disclosure,—
(a) total number held in class: 7,832,192
(b) total in class: 120,254,253

really its a 5% drop, not the end of the world, but all eyes on the meeting ...

[JeremyALD]

Milford holding 15 mil in june and 8 mil in october so sold off ~50 % , from their anounsments , correct ? Mind you , i think they sold a lot of ATM as well just befor they started to go up , never the less, am i reading that right ?
June 21
For last disclosure,—
(a) total number held in class: 14,808,202

Oct 2nd
For this disclosure,—
(a) total number held in class: 7,832,192
(b) total in class: 120,254,253

really its a 5% drop, not the end of the world, but all eyes on the meeting ...

Given their massive holding and the consistent rise in SP pretty sure they're just derisking themselves.

Anyway ASM on Wednesday where all will be revealed. I'm hoping for guidance 37.5m+. Looking forward to an update, albeit a bit nervous about how the El Monte has performed over the peak season.

[iceman]

As it has extended lot it may have pullback or correction during next 12 months. Once bear market set it also should go down. So far it had a major up trend. Trend could reverse at any time.

I think the market has been very slow in accepting and believing their $50m profit in a couple of years. If they achieve it (and the related big increase in dividends), which looks good at present, the SP has some catching up to do. I have faith in THL doing what they've said they will, under our current Chairman.

[sb9]

1
9:35:54 am
485
650,000
$3,152,500




Someone prepared to pay premium price of $4.85 to current trading price of $4.73.

[golden city]

Has be accumulated for a while. It looks set for a takeover

[meltical]

1
9:35:54 am
485
650,000
$3,152,500




Someone prepared to pay premium price of $4.85 to current trading price of $4.73.

there was a trade of 3,000,000 at the same price off market yesterday

[sb9]

there was a trade of 3,000,000 at the same price off market yesterday

Correct, missed that one y'day. Just checked the trading volume for y'day, it was about 3.6mln shares traded.

[babymonster]

i just missed out by 1c, yesterday.. my order was 4.6... have to wait for a pull back now... anyway, good to see it's recover

[Benny1]

i just missed out by 1c, yesterday.. my order was 4.6... have to wait for a pull back now... anyway, good to see it's recover

I was tempted to grab a few at $4.61..oh well next time......:mellow:

[Beagle]

there was a trade of 3,000,000 at the same price off market yesterday

Someone is building up a significant stake. Quite a few large off market parcels went through before it went ex divvy at $5.00.
I tend to think its fairly priced and a good hold for long term growth at this level so I'm happy to continue to get shares in lieu of dividend through the DRP.

[JeremyALD]

Guidance update tomorrow - seems upper end of guidance is factored in at the moment so anything under 37.5m as a forecast would be disappointing for the market imp.

I'm hopeful they can hit 40m this FY, but that would be a pretty massive result considering a few US barriers

[sammiesmiles]

https://nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/308828

Chinese capital entered.

[Yoda]

The pe has been gradually increasing over the last 5 years from 11 to what is now 18. It will be interesting to see what Trump has done to tourism in the US certainly over the next coming year. net profit of 38mil with a share price of $5 PE of around 16. $6 would make it 19 if there is no increase in shares I think anyway but I'm not really sure

[JeremyALD]

The pe has been gradually increasing over the last 5 years from 11 to what is now 18. It will be interesting to see what Trump has done to tourism in the US certainly over the next coming year. net profit of 38mil with a share price of $5 PE of around 16. $6 would make it 19 if there is no increase in shares I think anyway but I'm not really sure

Looks fair value at this point, but certainly room to grow if they keep delivering. They have also been talking about further acquisitions so that will be interesting. The US entry appears to have been a good move so far.

[peat]

anyone weirded out by the fact that the first SSH notice was somewhat misleading and ended up having to be clarified by the Company.
and that HB Holdings is not a registered company according to the companies office so its also odd Citic are using that as a vehicle.
And yet Mr Wu's email was a dead giveaway.

[JeremyALD]

anyone weirded out by the fact that the first SSH notice was somewhat misleading and ended up having to be clarified by the Company.
and that HB Holdings is not a registered company according to the companies office so its also odd Citic are using that as a vehicle.
And yet Mr Wu's email was a dead giveaway.

Yes and 7% is large holding to get all in one buy, especially when THL knew nothing about it.

[Snow Leopard]

anyone weirded out by the fact that the first SSH notice was somewhat misleading and ended up having to be clarified by the Company.
and that HB Holdings is not a registered company according to the companies office so its also odd Citic are using that as a vehicle.
And yet Mr Wu's email was a dead giveaway.

I think that you will find that HB Holdings Limited is registered in the Cayman Islands as per the address.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Beagle]

Yes and 7% is large holding to get all in one buy, especially when THL knew nothing about it.

7.3% to be precise

[peat]

registered in the Cayman Islands as per the address.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Is that somewhere near to Panama :D

[winner69]

7.3% to be precise

7.348% to be more precise

Whatever quite a few shares

Things sometimes don't end up all that well with Citic involved

[winner69]

Is that somewhere near to Panama :D

about 1200 kms away

closer to cuba than panama







think i get what you were hinting at though

[Snow Leopard]

about 1200 kms away

closer to cuba than panama...

1,165.27km to be precise.

(central post office, panama city to central post office, grand cayman)

[mondograss]

Maybe they need some campervans after the hurricanes?

[Oliver Mander]

Were there a plethora of bad messages at the AGM today? Share price intraday was going extremely well until about 2:30...then it tanked. Was anyone there?

[forest]

Just back from the ASM, no bad messages but no upgrade either. Forecast kept as previous announced.

[JeremyALD]

All my posts about it have disappeared for some reason. It was a solid AGM but there was a slightly less positive tone than what we've been used to. There are definitely some risks ahead and the US business has been solid but the number of travellers in peak season was down YOY. When asked about future prospects of El Monte they were positive but are only expecting a small lift in international travellers to America over the next year. They did say Canada is at capacity and that they expect travellers to start leaning towards the US again. The integration of the business appears to be going well.

Overall it was a slightly tame meeting IMO and I sold half my holding during it as I had a feeling the market expected a bit more. I still have a significant share as a proportion of my portfolio but needed to realise that there's some risks ahead too and this year might just be a bit harder than the previous (largely due to factors outside their control). I'll look to pick some more up as the political situation hopefully eases overseas. It's definitely still a strong company and there was nothing in the meeting to suggest otherwise

[winner69]

1,165.27km to be precise.

(central post office, panama city to central post office, grand cayman)

Do AIR fly that route?

Maybe need to go through Miami or something

[LAC]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11934411

[percy]

Back from my annual book selling trip to Wanaka and Twizel.
Weather on Tuesday driving down to Wanaka was fantastic.The scenery was wonderful,the mountains looked magestic with the early morning sun.
There were camper vans here,there,and everywhere.
Lower NZ $,fantastic scenery,safe haven to travel to,and plenty of retirees looking to travel,I see a bright future for THL,and ATL [asx].

[JeremyALD]

Back from my annual book selling trip to Wanaka and Twizel.
Weather on Tuesday driving down to Wanaka was fantastic.The scenery was wonderful,the mountains looked magestic with the early morning sun.
There were camper vans here,there,and everywhere.
Lower NZ $,fantastic scenery,safe haven to travel to,and plenty of retirees looking to travel,I see a bright future for THL,and ATL [asx].

Any thoughts on what's better value at current prices Percy? I see both are at all time highs (or near) presently

[Justin]

rebounce too faster，missed the chance to top up ,any more correction recently :confused:

[percy]

Any thoughts on what's better value at current prices Percy? I see both are at all time highs (or near) presently

I did think ATL,but that was when they were around $1.40.They have shot up to $1.71 in the last week or so.
I was going to sell the balance of my THL and put the funds into more ATL,but have decided to hang onto them.
So the short answer is I am not sure.Maybe do as I have done, and hold both.

[percy]

4,200,000 SP at $4.85 this morning.
We live in interesting times.!..lol.

[sb9]

4,200,000 SP at $4.85 this morning.
We live in interesting times.!..lol.

Must be that Chinese outfit accumulating more...wonder who's selling though, Milford??

[golden city]

It is heading for a full takeover at 6.50 at some stage

[sb9]

It is heading for a full takeover at 6.50 at some stage

Thanks gc, by the way can I borrow your crystal ball pls....lol ;)

[JeremyALD]

It is heading for a full takeover at 6.50 at some stage

A takeover is definately looking on the cards. Thats huge volume and not even at a discount!

[golden city]

This is a powerful company in china. With 200b assets. Fork out a few bucks tovtakeover thl is so easy

[golden city]

Especially nzd heading down. Make it more cheaper

[Arbroath]

A takeover is definately looking on the cards. Thats huge volume and not even at a discount!

Agree - I think a bid of $5.50+ is realistic which would be 17.5x this years forecast earnings - given the expected 2-3 year growth profile that is only 13x FY20 company target.

Hard to see the Chinese sitting on 10% for long

[sb9]

Agree - I think a bid of $5.50+ is realistic which would be 17.5x this years forecast earnings - given the expected 2-3 year growth profile that is only 13x FY20 company target.

Hard to see the Chinese sitting on 10% for long

Good analogy...added few more to my existing holding at the open...

[Benny1]

Bloody annoyed if this becomes the next NZ company to be swallowed up by overseas interests .
This is a too gooder company for NZ to loose.

[iceman]

Bloody annoyed if this becomes the next NZ company to be swallowed up by overseas interests .
This is a too gooder company for NZ to loose.

Agree and certainly wouldn't be interested in selling at $5.50 or even close to that. This Co is doing well, with a good geographical spread in a nice and steadily growing industry. It has huge potential to grow SH value

[Beagle]

N.Z. has headed down by a pretty decent amount in the last week which will be assistive towards tourism to N.Z and in terms of conversion of U.S. earnings to $Kiwi and also assistive to any party looking to make a takeover. I think its clear that a certain shareholder is "on the march" towards 19.99% being the threshold before a takeover is required. "Blind Freddy" can see what's happening here. Disc: I added more this morning.

[winner69]

We should thank those 17% of shareholders who dug their toes in and told the Aussies to get lost 10 years ago. Thl is still here

Back then $2.80 was a decent premium to the then current share price. Many regretted it didn’t succeed as share price collapsed to well below $1

But I would say if somebody did offer $6 this time around it probably would be successful. I will take it.

[Beagle]

Rob Campbell has done a good job with THL and I am happy to hold long term unless a compelling offer is forthcoming in due course.

[percy]

N.Z. has headed down by a pretty decent amount in the last week which will be assistive towards tourism to N.Z and in terms of conversion of U.S. earnings to $Kiwi and also assistive to any party looking to make a takeover. I think its clear that a certain shareholder is "on the march" towards 19.99% being the threshold before a takeover is required. "Blind Freddy" can see what's happening here. Disc: I added more this morning.
Look forward to your next name change.
"Blind Freddy" has a certain ring to it..!!...lol.

[Beagle]

Look forward to your next name change.
"Blind Freddy" has a certain ring to it..!!...lol.

LOL the hound is happy with his new name. Beagles are not known for their eyesight but have legendary ability to sniff out trouble :)

[sb9]

Ok, let's do some maths.

As per previous SSH notice, HB Holdings (Chinese holding) were holding 7.35% or 8.89mln shares of THL.

Assuming today's big crossing of 4.2 mln shares was them, then it takes their total holding upto 13.09mln shares or about 11% of THL's issued capital of 121mln shares.

Further acquisition of another 9% would see their holding getting close 20%, which is the threshold for full takeover.

Let's see how things unfold over next few months.

[golden city]

Everybody is on thl atm at the moment. Looks like no one looking at rakon Rak has some underlying value from thinxtra. Which could be a turnaround story with the Taiwan company helping

[Beagle]

Ok, let's do some maths.

As per previous SSH notice, HB Holdings (Chinese holding) were holding 7.35% or 8.89mln shares of THL.

Assuming today's big crossing of 4.2 mln shares was them, then it takes their total holding upto 13.09mln shares or about 11% of THL's issued capital of 121mln shares.

Further acquisition of another 9% would see their holding getting close 20%, which is the threshold for full takeover.

Let's see how things unfold over next few months.

Interesting times indeed, my rating BBB (Beagle busy buying)
Stock is a good long term buy anyway so the chance of a takeover looks like a free carry possibility on making an extraordinary short term gain.
So lets flip the coin....heads you win long term, tails you win short term. Can't lose ? Yeah...nah, coins can on very rare occasions land on their edge.

[winner69]

Peat put this on the AIA thread





Rodney sees a link between immigration and tourism

Will the government's immigration cuts pose a threat to tourism?

http://www.sra.co.nz/pdf/TourismThreatOct17.pdf.

[Valuegrowth]

Yes it a good company for NZ to loose. Better not lose this NZ icon. We all should get together and should buy part of its business.
Bloody annoyed if this becomes the next NZ company to be swallowed up by overseas interests .
This is a too gooder company for NZ to loose.

[Valuegrowth]

For me taking part of its business entirely depends on the new development and value. Serious investors or mangers have very long term plans. They create long term share holder value for faithful investors. If a company is not running well, not straight forward and they don’t have any long term plan it is wise to sell their stocks as fast as we can. In addition, once stocks become overvalued, eventually they will go down in bear markets.Any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. This is no longer a value share. It is trading above intrinsic value.

[Justin]

may i know the intrinsic value price,thanks.

[iceman]

may i know the intrinsic value price,thanks.

And how you calculate it ?

[Oliver Mander]

For me taking part of its business entirely depends on the new development and value. Serious investors or mangers have very long term plans. They create long term share holder value for faithful investors. If a company is not running well, not straight forward and they don’t have any long term plan it is wise to sell their stocks as fast as we can. In addition, once stocks become overvalued, eventually they will go down in bear markets.Any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. This is no longer a value share. It is trading above intrinsic value.

I can't agree with that marketwinner. The 'fundamental' value based on their stated earnings, with appropriate risks/probabilities factored in, is a lot higher than the current share price.
That's based off a DCF cashflow model, with a 'perpetual' growth rate of 0% after 10 years (ie, conservative estimate). Discount rate used is not too small either. My estimate of value is around $6 a share.

Even if my value is wrong, most cashflow-based valuers would say the underlying value is more than the current share price.

What is your methodology for saying intrinsic value is less than the current price?

[hardt]

Valuing growth companies using DCF is easily distorted as many have capex intensive growth schemes in place to drive earnings growth over short-medium term that level out once the maturity curve is being reached.

Valuing this one using earnings growth estimates of 44-52 NZDm in 2020 ( 17-19%CAGR )

This presents a PEG of 0.90 at current SP - rather cheap growth and it comes with a 4.2% net yield that will grow more or less inline with earnings.

Anything under $6 seems like a fair price to pay in my opinion...

[Oliver Mander]

Valuing growth companies using DCF is easily distorted as many have capex intensive growth schemes in place to drive earnings growth over short-medium term that level out once the maturity curve is being reached.

Valuing this one using earnings growth estimates of 44-52 NZDm in 2020 ( 17-19%CAGR )

This presents a PEG of 0.90 at current SP - rather cheap growth and it comes with a 4.2% net yield that will grow more or less inline with earnings.

Anything under $6 seems like a fair price to pay in my opinion...

Hardt, I agree! In a growth company like THL, dcf methodology will undershoot the value, although it can be factored in to whatever model is constructed; I like to think I've allowed for that.

Either way, we seem to both agree that marketwinners comment that THL was trading above intrinsic value doesn't sound correct. And sounds like you agree on a fair value estimate of at least $6...

[Valuegrowth]

may i know the intrinsic value price,thanks.
I found some good links on IV.

https://simplywall.st/news/2017/10/18/have-investors-already-priced-in-tourism-holdings-limiteds-nzsethl-growth/

http://intrinsicvalueformula.com/intrinsic-value-formula-for-beginners/

https://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-Intrinsic-Value

5 Ways to Calculate Intrinsic Value - wikiHow (https://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-Intrinsic-Value)


http://buffettsbooks.com/howtoinvestinstocks/course2/stocks/intrinsic-value-calculator.html#sthash.kww1hre5.dpbs

https://www.valuespreadsheet.com/value-investing-blog/free-intrinsic-value-calculator-dcf

https://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/valuation-methods/valuation-matters-7-ways-value-stocks/

Here are the seven ways to value stocks

[winner69]

I found some good links on IV.

http://intrinsicvalueformula.com/intrinsic-value-formula-for-beginners/

https://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-Intrinsic-Value
6
5 Ways to Calculate Intrinsic Value - wikiHow (https://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-Intrinsic-Value)
http://buffettsbooks.com/howtoinvestinstocks/course2/stocks/intrinsic-value-calculator.html#sthash.kww1hre5.dpbs

https://www.valuespreadsheet.com/value-investing-blog/free-intrinsic-value-calculator-dcf

https://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/valuation-methods/valuation-matters-7-ways-value-stocks/

Here are the seven ways to value stocks

Easy peasy eh .... if it’s that easy i’d Say the intrinsic value of thl is about $4.92

But I’ll sell if offered 6 bucks

[Valuegrowth]

And how you calculate it ?

https://simplywall.st/news/2017/10/18/have-investors-already-priced-in-tourism-holdings-limiteds-nzsethl-growth/

Have Investors Already Priced In Tourism Holdings Limited’s (NZSE:THL) Growth?

https://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-Intrinsic-Value

Five Methods

[winner69]

https://simplywall.st/news/2017/10/18/have-investors-already-priced-in-tourism-holdings-limiteds-nzsethl-growth/

Have Investors Already Priced In Tourism Holdings Limited’s (NZSE:THL) Growth?

https://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-Intrinsic-Value

Five Methods

So $4.08 it is - some 20% lower than my $4.92

Must use different assumptions ...or that analyst forecast they use is pretty useless.

I’d sell if offered 6 bucks

[Valuegrowth]

It has a long term potential .We have to rely on our own reliable valuation models. In each valuation models there are plus and minus.

Higher valuation should be given to fast growers, cash rich and less debt companies. They are safe as long as they have long term growing businesses. However, that doesn’t mean buying them at very high prices. In other words future strong balance sheets have more value than future weak balance sheets.

http://www.easyaccountancy.co.uk/smallbusinesscentre/how_to_value_my_company.html (http://www.easyaccountancy.co.uk/smallbusinesscentre/how_to_value_my_company.html)

[winner69]

This talk of $6

Would give an Enterprise Value of about $900m ....hmmm ....that sort of value needs some pretty hefty cash flows to be justified

Maybe MARKETWINNER has a point

[Jantar]

So $4.08 it is - some 20% lower than my $4.92

Must use different assumptions ...or that analyst forecast they use is pretty useless.

I’d sell if offered 6 bucks That is a USA article, so treat the $4.06 as US$4.06

[Beagle]

Based on average analyst forecasts, (removes my confirmation bias) THL is trading on a 2018 PE of 15.8. http://www.4-traders.com/TOURISM-HOLDINGS-LTD-6491392/financials/
When you consider their track record of growth and stated targets this seems pretty reasonable to me against a backdrop of a market PE of 20.
I think there is still very little, if any, "in play" premium to the current price. I can see why there is the prospect of a takeover at such a moderate PE for a company with their growth track record and more importantly growth prospects going forward and think a current year PE of 18 is easily justified, giving 14% upside from here even without any possible in play premium being added to that so for my money $6 seems achievable.

[winner69]

That is a USA article, so treat the $4.06 as US$4.06

But they say share price is 492 and the workings seem to be nzd

[Arbroath]

The thl statement this morning feels a bit like an old fashioned don't sell notice - they clearly are worried about a takeover being launched.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/309423

[RTM]

Agree Arbroath.
What will Jacinda/Winston think of NZ losing companies such as THL ? Personally I hate it.
Wonder if this is on their radar as well as housing ? Not sure they can really do much.

[winner69]

The thl statement this morning feels a bit like an old fashioned don't sell notice - they clearly are worried about a takeover being launched.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/THL/announcements/309423

Sounds like it eh

Looks like 6 bucks is on the way ....sooner than later

Having suitors is best way of enhancing shareholder value.

[Balance]

Agree Arbroath.
What will Jacinda/Winston think of NZ losing companies such as THL ? Personally I hate it.
Wonder if this is on their radar as well as housing ? Not sure they can really do much.

They can always tighten legislation.

Best defence against takeover is performance, and recognition of performance in sp.

[winner69]

DCF or multiples don’t matter re valuations - thl is worth what the Chinese are willing to pay

If they offer 6 bucks grant Thornton or whoever will do some sums and say on DCF basis it’s worth $5.90-$6.45

Bring it on please

[iceman]

Agree Arbroath.
What will Jacinda/Winston think of NZ losing companies such as THL ? Personally I hate it.
Wonder if this is on their radar as well as housing ? Not sure they can really do much.

So far they've only talked about "essential infrastructure" and land. Don't think there's any chance of companies like THL currently being on their radar screens. I'd also want it to stay on the NZX

[percy]

DCF or multiples don’t matter re valuations - thl is worth what the Chinese are willing to pay

If they offer 6 bucks grant Thornton or whoever will do some sums and say on DCF basis it’s worth $5.90-$6.45

Bring it on please

Exactly right.!...............

[sb9]

Based on average analyst forecasts, (removes my confirmation bias) THL is trading on a 2018 PE of 15.8. http://www.4-traders.com/TOURISM-HOLDINGS-LTD-6491392/financials/
When you consider their track record of growth and stated targets this seems pretty reasonable to me against a backdrop of a market PE of 20.
I think there is still very little, if any, "in play" premium to the current price. I can see why there is the prospect of a takeover at such a moderate PE for a company with their growth track record and more importantly growth prospects going forward and think a current year PE of 18 is easily justified, giving 14% upside from here even without any possible in play premium being added to that so for my money $6 seems achievable.

Yes, looks very reasonable.

Interesting to note the trading depth has big wall being put at $5 ask....throwing challenge for bidders, let's see how it all unfolds.

[Balance]

Yes, looks very reasonable.

Interesting to note the trading depth has big wall being put at $5 ask....throwing challenge for bidders, let's see how it all unfolds.

Effortlessly!

[sb9]

Effortlessly!

Yes with all indicators ticking up, price volume and VWAP.

[golden city]

Mt Campbell asking for shareholder support. Indicating could be a hostile takeover

[iceman]

Yes, looks very reasonable.

Interesting to note the trading depth has big wall being put at $5 ask....throwing challenge for bidders, let's see how it all unfolds.

The big wall has been taken down !

[winner69]

wow - 5 bucks plus

never to be seen again ....until the takeover fails

[Scrunch]

Or $6.10 to $6.65 and a special dividend is announced in addition to the takeover price returning the takeover to being within the valuation range. This of course assumes a $6 takeover. Here's hoping for a 30% not 20% uplift and $6.50.

[JeremyALD]

Hmm interesting times.

I think $6.50 would be the minimum accepted for a takeover given the very solid growth in SP over the last 5 years

[Beagle]

Hmm interesting times.

I think $6.50 would be the minimum accepted for a takeover given the very solid growth in SP over the last 5 years

Just be thinking about that and agree. Still rating this BBB. (Beagle busy buying) and have been active this morning and this afternoon doing exactly that. By no means has a major in play premium in it YET, in my opinion.

[winner69]

Action slowing down

We need to get the share price up to at least $5.50 so the Chinese feel compelled to offer at least 7 bucks

Doing my bit and buying more at the moment ...c’mon on guys do the same.

As Jacinda says ‘let’s do this’

[Beagle]

Action slowing down

We need to get the share price up to at least $5.50 so the Chinese feel compelled to offer at least 7 bucks

Doing my bit and buying more at the moment ...c’mon on guys do the same.

+1 Couldn't agree more. We should force them to pay at least $7 for this well bred pup.

[sb9]

Action slowing down

We need to get the share price up to at least $5.50 so the Chinese feel compelled to offer at least 7 bucks

Doing my bit and buying more at the moment ...c’mon on guys do the same.

As Jacinda says ‘let’s do this’

Another way to do it is, the big boys who currently hold lots like Milford refuse to sell them cheaply then they'll have to buy on market, with less supply the price will move up dramatically, eh winner..

[arc]

It might not actually be a take-over move, just another investment for these guys,
Do they have a history of performing take_overs ?

[JeremyALD]

It might not actually be a take-over move, just another investment for these guys,
Do they have a history of performing take_overs ?

It could be, I'm 50/50 on whether it will happen.

The wording of the announcement today seems to imply a potential takeover offer and the huge amount of buying in a short amount of time at a market high also points towards a takeover.

If it was just an investor why would THL emphasise their global strategy and that they still believe they can create shareholder value?

[Beagle]

NZX ANNOUNCEMENT
TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED (thl)
RE: HB Holdings Limited
thl has noted the further increase in shareholding by the China-based investment group.
thl has a strongly articulated global strategy, which it is rolling out. We have no reason to think that this should not continue.
We are proud of our New Zealand culture and approach. We believe there is further upside in our business and ability to grow value to our shareholders. We are hopeful New Zealand and other investors will continue to support our business and growth strategy.
END

Authorised by:

Rob Campbell
Chairman, Tourism Holdings Limited

No question in my mind this is a very defensive announcement. Normally a company does not comment on SSH notices, the substantial shareholder simply posts their new holding within the timeframe required by the NZX.

[arc]

Ok, Thanks, I missed that announcement.

[fiasco]

No question in my mind this is a very defensive announcement. Normally a company does not comment on SSH notices, the substantial shareholder simply posts their new holding within the timeframe required by the NZX.

I remember these type of announcements from the DIL days...

[Valuegrowth]

How do we save this NZ icon in case if there is takeover bid? Thanks. One option is all forum members could double their shareholding and keep as long term investment without selling.

[Balance]

Action slowing down

We need to get the share price up to at least $5.50 so the Chinese feel compelled to offer at least 7 bucks

Doing my bit and buying more at the moment ...c’mon on guys do the same.

As Jacinda says ‘let’s do this’

Easy for her to say that as she simply takes from taxpayers and 'do this'.

[Snow Leopard]

I apparently never mentioned that I own some of these and have been topping up via the DRP.

I decided to buy some more last week and then never managed to find the time to press the Buy button.

But today I pressed the button and apparently stopped the rise in it's tracks :(.

I wish to apologise for my behaviour and am kicking myself (gently) for buying at the days high.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

How do we save this NZ icon in case if there is takeover bid? Thanks. One option is all forum members could double their shareholding and keep as long term investment without selling.

NZ Icon?

Usually a bad sign calling things iconic on the NZX ......usually dud investments

[sammiesmiles]

Interesting to see if Sir Peters will ban the possible takeover in the future.

BTW, CITIC Captical manages $21B USD assets, which contains Alibaba, Shunfeng (One of China's leading logistic companies), McDonalds in China etc... THL is too cheap to them to acquire.

[Justin]

Hi, what you guys means of take over? how many percentage they are going to acquire?

[JeremyALD]

Hi, what you guys means of take over? how many percentage they are going to acquire?

It's speculation at this point, but if they did it could be up to 100% of the company.

Question for you more experienced, if there was a hostile takeover action what percentage of shareholders need to accept for it go through?

[winner69]

It's speculation at this point, but if they did it could be up to 100% of the company.

Question for you more experienced, if there was a hostile takeover action what percentage of shareholders need to accept for it go through?

Over 90% acceptance and they can compulsory acquire the other 10% from the laggards

Might be happy with 11% ....might only want 20% ....as a small investment


Who knows but lets speculate they want the whole company

[arc]

Over 90% acceptance and they can compulsory acquire the other 10% from the laggards
Might be happy with 11% ....might only want 20% ....as a small investment

Who knows but lets speculate they want the whole company

is that company... or country?.

[mondograss]

Companies office shows 17.11% held by National Nominees and 6.67% by ACC. Not sure how up to date that is but depending on who National Nominees are they could block a full takeover reaching 90%.

[Balance]

is that company... or country?.

Haha - with total assets of HK$7.238T (yes, NZ$1.35 trillion), they can certainly buy up most of NZ.

Certainly the whole of the NZX listed companies many many times over.

But who would want to?

Simply takeover the good companies and leave the NZX to its Snakk, Chow Group, Veritas, Plexxxure, PEB, PIL, BLT etc etc. :D

[percy]

Haha - with total assets of HK$7.238T (yes, NZ$1.35 trillion), they can certainly buy up most of NZ.

Certainly the whole of the NZX listed companies many many times over.

But who would want to?

Simply takeover the good companies and leave the NZX to its Snakk, Chow Group, Veritas, Plexxxure, PEB, PIL, BLT etc etc. :D

We live in interesting times.....Scary.

[Justin]

Good Morning All，Did they start buying any other companies of NZ? or only THL right now.

[Justin]

CITIC Group Corporation Ltd., formerly the China International Trust Investment Corporation, is a state-owned investment company of the People's Republic of China, established by Rong Yiren in 1979 with the approval of Deng Xiaoping.[2] Its headquarters are in Chaoyang District, Beijing.[3] As of 2017, it is one of China's biggest conglomerates, with one of the largest foreign assets in the world.[4]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CITIC_Group

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/309497

Interesting to note that Milford has been the biggest seller of THL - now down to 5.5%.

They were sitting on 19.14% in 2014!

Milford started selling down in 2015.

With THL at an all time high, Milford has certainly been very generous to the buyers by leaving plenty on the table! Something like $75m based upon a simple calculation!

[dumbfounded]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/309497

Interesting to note that Milford has been the biggest seller of THL - now down to 5.5%.

They were sitting on 19.14% in 2014!

Milford started selling down in 2015.

With THL at an all time high, Milford has certainly been very generous to the buyers by leaving plenty on the table! Something like $75m based upon a simple calculation!

I went to their annual meeting at the beginning of this year and asked them why they are selling THL. The answer I got is that they fear that there is no barrier to entry for their kind of businesses and hence, they are selling down to balance their portfolio. They liked ATM then. I guess you can't win them all.

[forest]

Transactions made during the period 02 October 2017 – 27 October 2017. Sales of 1,650,000 ordinary shares, for total consideration of $8,002,500. Purchases of 429,264, for total consideration of $2,031,541.12.

What I find interesting that Milford has sold down mainly but also purchased 429,264 shares according to the notice.

Just wondering if it is possible to tell in which order the transactions has been made? Did they buy first and than sell or the other way around?

Balance do you know, or others? Cheers.

[Arbroath]

Transactions made during the period 02 October 2017 – 27 October 2017. Sales of 1,650,000 ordinary shares, for total consideration of $8,002,500. Purchases of 429,264, for total consideration of $2,031,541.12.

What I find interesting that Milford has sold down mainly but also purchased 429,264 shares according to the notice.

Just wondering if it is possible to tell in which order the transactions has been made? Did they buy first and than sell or the other way around?

Balance do you know, or others? Cheers.

The answer is in the average prices - they bought first c. $4.73 average some of which might be related to the DRP and sold the block at $4.85 to the Chinese.

[forest]

Thanks Arbroath.

[arc]

The answer is in the average prices - they bought first c. $4.73 average some of which might be related to the DRP and sold the block at $4.85 to the Chinese.

473/485 roughly 2.47% increase, a good margin for investment.
Question is will they now be tempted to unload the rest on market for a "larger" margin, or hold till a possible announcement of takeover is made (with possible forced escalation in base price).

Edit: Im also noticing that robot trading software may actually work to the advanatge of large buyers, as robots make multiple small buys, sell as a larger combined packet, but do it all between 1.5-3% gain. They also sell down if statistics imply negative trends.

Someone is actively feeding this trend..?

[Beagle]

Those quick to put their paws up for more recently look to be very positioned. Tens of millions of dollars of new money flows into the market every single month from Kiwisaver contributions...wonder where some of that will flow this month and if Milford are silly enough to keep selling or might shut up shop for a while ? Wonder where this is by Christmas ?

[arc]

So what happens when the offshore buyers attain enough volume to force the issue. Are they actually required to finish the acquisition process by making an offer to holders at the present market levels, or can they offer 1/2 price to the last holders as they are now in a position of power ?.

[mondograss]

No, it's usually at the same price as they've offered other share holders, or an independently determined price:
http://www.takeovers.govt.nz/assets/Assets-2/Takeovers-Directors-booklet-linked2a.pdf

But they have to get to 90% to do a compulsory acquisition. When\If they get to 20% then they basically have to show their hand in order to keep buying.

[weasel]

473/485 roughly 9.75% increase, a good safety margin for investment.

2.5 percent, no?

[arc]

2.5 percent, no?

Yes, my error, I had mistakenly originally written the divisive difference. 473 being 97.525% of 485

[RupertBear]

Dithering about whether to top up at the current sp :confused: cant bring myself to buy when it starts with a 5 ;)

[Beagle]

Dithering about whether to top up at the current sp :confused: cant bring myself to buy when it starts with a 5 ;)

Now come on my furry bear friend, you are not a pussycat...get those claws out and get into it before the Chinese do.

[RupertBear]

Now come on my furry bear friend, you are not a pussycat...get those claws out and get into it before the Chinese do.
I hear ya Mr Beagle, Yes I am a pure breed BEAR and not a pussycat :p but my bear tendencies do get me into trouble SUM times :mellow:

[Beagle]

I hear ya Mr Beagle, Yes I am a pure breed BEAR and not a pussycat :p but my bear tendencies do get me into trouble SUM times :mellow:

Yes...This dog is running out of saliva licking his wounds with SUM other company. SUM things got to give there or I'll be howling with discontent :confused:
Been barking up that tree looking for a feed for a while to no avail...

[arc]

Have the overseas buyers given up and left the table ?.

[JeremyALD]

Have the overseas buyers given up and left the table ?.

All these shootings in America aren't helping. I wouldn't visit America at the moment tbh

[Beagle]

Have the overseas buyers given up and left the table ?.

Probably just exercising a little patience like THL and SUM other shareholders need to do and maybe hoping to get some more at current prices by special off market trade or maybe they have finished buying, only they would know. I lot of patience is an essential tool in any investors toolkit in my opinion.

I have to reluctantly agree with you Jeremy. I originally had penciled in plans to be in Las Vegas and stay at the Luxor in early October 17 that could have seen my friend and I involved at the time of that horrific recent mass shooting there. Fortunately my friend had other urgent requirements for his funds so we didn't end up going.
Fortuitous for us I reckon and has us reconsidering whether we'll ever bother going.

[minimoke]

I have to reluctantly agree with you Jeremy. I originally had penciled in plans to be in Las Vegas and stay at the Luxor in early October 17 that could have seen my friend and I involved at the time of that horrific recent mass shooting there. Fortunately my friend had other urgent requirements for his funds so we didn't end up going.
Fortuitous for us I reckon and has us reconsidering whether we'll ever bother going.
I wouldn't have picked you as being a country music genre fan.

Chance of death by terrorist or similar act very small and should have no impact on rational think tourism. But like the sharemarket sometime people aren't rational

[percy]

I wouldn't have picked you as being a country music genre fan.

Chance of death by terrorist or similar act very small and should have no impact on rational think tourism. But like the sharemarket sometime people aren't rational

I better not comment....lol.

[Beagle]

I wouldn't have picked you as being a country music genre fan.

Chance of death by terrorist or similar act very small and should have no impact on rational think tourism. But like the sharemarket sometime people aren't rational

I was merely referring to the fact that I could have been there, wasn't going for that reason but I am a little partial to a bit of country music and seeing as we had planned to stay at the Luxor I think I can say that I probably would have gone to a free country music event if we had of gone. I am counting myself as blessed not to have been there. Fact is according to Wikipedia death by firearm in America is 25 times more likely than the average in most other developed countries. They just keep hitting the headlines for all the wrong reasons, another especially sad one yesterday in Texas.

[kiwico]

All these shootings in America aren't helping. I wouldn't visit America at the moment tbh

We arrived in Vegas last month just a couple of days after the shooting and other than plenty of references to "#Vegas Strong" you'd never of known anything happened. Talking to people there there'd no cancellations or drop in bookings as a result of the incident, and everywhere was busy.

The US is a great place to visit, and I'd imagine a tourist is far more likely to be in a car accident than find themselves at the wrong end of a nutter with a gun.

[minimoke]

I was merely referring to the fact that I could have been there, wasn't going for that reason but I am a little partial to a bit of country music and seeing as we had planned to stay at the Luxor I think I can say that I probably would have gone to a free country music event if we had of gone. I am counting myself as blessed not to have been there. Fact is according to Wikipedia death by firearm in America is 25 times more likely than the average in most other developed countries. They just keep hitting the headlines for all the wrong reasons, another especially sad one yesterday in Texas.Not a personal attack but given NZ is a nation of porkers apparently you are 35,079 times more likely to die from heart disease in America than you are from a terrorist attack. So tourism still safe - unless THL renting its campers to fatties.

[JeremyALD]

We arrived in Vegas last month just a couple of days after the shooting and other than plenty of references to "#Vegas Strong" you'd never of known anything happened. Talking to people there there'd no cancellations or drop in bookings as a result of the incident, and everywhere was busy.

The US is a great place to visit, and I'd imagine a tourist is far more likely to be in a car accident than find themselves at the wrong end of a nutter with a gun.

I disagree somewhat. Vegas will always be Vegas and a shooting isn't going to stop that, but for people like me who have been considering going to America (but not determined too) constant negative publicity about the White House, shootings and general instability would put me off going there in the short term

As an example last year we were considering going to the USA, however now we're more set on Canada for this and a number of other reasons. So yes I don't think it's a huge factor but for those thinking about the USA it might just be enough to sway them elsewhere.

Hearing about shootings and the woes of government can't be a GOOD thing for tourism whatever way you put it.

[minimoke]

I

Hearing about shootings and the woes of government can't be a GOOD thing for tourism whatever way you put it.
You only hear about shootings because it is newsworthy and sells media. A rational tourist would be much more worried about the 40,000 road deaths in america - but you don't read about that do you!

Arguably America is safer than Canada due to the effect of the right to bear arms acting as a deterrent.

(disc - trying to wangle a holiday in North Korea so USA doesn't worry me at all)

[Beagle]

You only hear about shootings because it is newsworthy and sells media. A rational tourist would be much more worried about the 40,000 road deaths in america - but you don't read about that do you!

Arguably America is safer than Canada due to the effect of the right to bear arms acting as a deterrent.

(disc - trying to wangle a holiday in North Korea so USA doesn't worry me at all)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-related_death_rate
Highlighted point 1 is factually incorrect. Death rate by homicide by firearm in Canada is 0.36 people per 100,000 whereas in the States its nearly 10 times that.
Interestingly there are FAR more dangerous places to go than the U.S....those stat's make for some interesting reading.

I hope you're being well paid to go to North Korea on business but if you're going just for the sake of a tourist visit then I would think you're dependents (if any), might like to check and top up your life insurance policies. Good luck with that. The hound wouldn't put a paw in that place for all the tea in China.
Regarding THL I do think all this publicity of mass shootings is a little off-putting. I know that statistically the odds are very low but I could easily have been at that concert in Vegas as our original plans were for an early October stay at the Luxor and that's right beside where the mass shooting occurred, just saying.

[Onion]

Arguably America is safer than Canada due to the effect of the right to bear arms acting as a deterrent.


You have to be joking right? Only supporters of the NRA would actually believe that the right to bear arms (and the large number in circulation as a result) makes anyone safer.

[minimoke]

You have to be joking right? Only supporters of the NRA would actually believe that the right to bear arms (and the large number in circulation as a result) makes anyone safer.We need to take this to another thread - but in closing on this thread yesterdays shooting may have been a lot worse had the gunman not been shot by a bystander.

[Balance]

We need to take this to another thread - but in closing on this thread yesterdays shooting may have been a lot worse had the gunman not been shot by a bystander.

Does not work, Minimoke - proof is that tough gun controls in countries like Japan and Australia result in them with a fraction of firearms related deaths (Japan was 0.56% of States & Australia, 8.7% of States.

People kill - guns make it easy to commit mass killings.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-related_death_rate

[minimoke]

Does not work, Minimoke - proof is that tough gun controls in countries like Japan and Australia result in them with a fraction of firearms related deaths (Japan was 0.56% of States & Australia, 8.7% of States.

People kill - guns make it easy to commit mass killings.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-related_death_rate
OK you have dragged me back in - but only so tourists using THL campervans know where it is safe.

Japan (mentioned above) has more deaths per gun than America. New Zealand, on the other hand who has loose gun control with a pretty high gun ratio (12th out of the around 80 countries) is fairly safe (so come here in your campervan)

Broadly speaking you should really be saying "People kill themselves - guns make it easy to commit suicide" as there are more suicide deaths than murders.

So unless you are in a very boring place that drives a tourist to suicide - guns are a total anon-issue.

Which, in summary to stay on topic, means that firearm related deaths should have absolutely no impact on tourist numbers

[kizame]

THL has invested in the wrong country,clearly there is a much greater likelyhood of a mass campervan shootout in the states than here or Aussie,I think this is why the shareprice is now heading south.
Shareholders will be worried about impending lawsuits when this occurs.

[minimoke]

THL has invested in the wrong country,clearly there is a much greater likelyhood of a mass campervan shootout in the states than here or Aussie,I think this is why the shareprice is now heading south.
Shareholders will be worried about impending lawsuits when this occurs.
I already hold THL but wouldn't mind some more. The more down-ramping the better as far as I'm concerned - that is until I hit the BUY button

[Lewylewylewy]

Ok, so we all agree that in order to grow the business in the U.S. is to attach gun turrets to the camper vans. We'll get together an petition at the next SH meeting.

[arc]

Electric vehicles for Tourism Holdings...

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/tourism-holdings-signals-plans-electric-vehicles

[iceman]

Electric vehicles for Tourism Holdings...

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/tourism-holdings-signals-plans-electric-vehicles

Thanks for the link arc. Good to see THL considering this early but I'm afraid it is a bit over optimistic to suggest we will have many electric vehicles in our fleet in 18-24 months time. The infrastructure (charging stations) is not there for travelers and is unlikely to be there within that short time frame, unfortunately.

[IAK]

Electric vehicles for Tourism Holdings...

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/tourism-holdings-signals-plans-electric-vehicles

Great stuff. Maybe they could extend the use of their proposed charging stations to the public as well.

[iceman]

Great stuff. Maybe they could extend the use of their proposed charging stations to the public as well.

Getting NZ well covered with charging stations should be a high priority infrastructure project lead by the Government. NZ is too vast and many tourists travel to places far away from dense population areas so this will require some serious investment from Government and private businesses.
A comprehensive plan and project would speed up the inevitable change to both business and private electric vehicles use

[Beagle]

Getting NZ well covered with charging stations should be a high priority infrastructure project lead by the Government. NZ is too vast and many tourists travel to places far away from dense population areas so this will require some serious investment from Government and private businesses.
A comprehensive plan and project would speed up the inevitable change to both business and private electric vehicles use

Agree 100%. N.Z. government does very little to subsidize / encourage electric vehicles, (exception from road user charges only until they make up 2% of the national vehicle fleet) is really quite a miserable and minimal incentive so the least they could do is take a lead with charging infrastructure.

[minimoke]

Getting NZ well covered with charging stations should be a high priority infrastructure project lead by the Government. NZ is too vast and many tourists travel to places far away from dense population areas so this will require some serious investment from Government and private businesses.
A comprehensive plan and project would speed up the inevitable change to both business and private electric vehicles useFuelling stations for private individuals and company cars is not the role of government.

If THL want electric vehicles then they need to ensure there is an infrastructure in place to ensure their customers arent disappointed half way between Geraldine and Twizel. Actually there ought to be more petrol / diesel pumps than teri currently are - but more importantly there needs to be more toilet stops.

(we are still paying off the government's useless Fibre Broadband role out which now enables kids to play games with a better ping rate and to down load pirated stuff and stream media - why should we pay for some eco-warriors Quioxite type electric vehicle battle against climate change!)

[arc]

Im guessing that Hybrid Petrol/Electric will be the initial fleet options. Perhaps the vans will also be covered in solar cells on top and the sides. Would make sense to have a set of fold out solar panels, Press button motor driven large surface area panels that fold out from up on top... collect those precious ergs.

[RTM]

Agree 100%. N.Z. government does very little to subsidize / encourage electric vehicles, (exception from road user charges only until they make up 2% of the national vehicle fleet) is really quite a miserable and minimal incentive so the least they could do is take a lead with charging infrastructure.

I think you will find that planning is underway within NZTA
https://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/Planning-and-investment/docs/Nationwide-network-of-electric-vehicle-charging-infrastructure.pdf

Cheers
RTM

[iceman]

Fuelling stations for private individuals and company cars is not the role of government.

If THL want electric vehicles then they need to ensure there is an infrastructure in place to ensure their customers arent disappointed half way between Geraldine and Twizel. Actually there ought to be more petrol / diesel pumps than teri currently are - but more importantly there needs to be more toilet stops.

(we are still paying off the government's useless Fibre Broadband role out which now enables kids to play games with a better ping rate and to down load pirated stuff and stream media - why should we pay for some eco-warriors Quioxite type electric vehicle battle against climate change!)

Normally I would agree with you minimoke about the role of Government but this time I don't. I think Government should lead this work, but probably not a subject for the THL thread although it was started based on an article about THL !!

[minimoke]

Normally I would agree with you minimoke about the role of Government but this time I don't. I think Government should lead this work, but probably not a subject for the THL thread although it was started based on an article about THL !!
If government is to take the lead then I will have to buy me some THL (which I am planning on doing anyway) as I will be wanting a direct return on my taxes.

[Joshuatree]

Agree 100%. N.Z. government does very little to subsidize / encourage electric vehicles, (exception from road user charges only until they make up 2% of the national vehicle fleet) is really quite a miserable and minimal incentive so the least they could do is take a lead with charging infrastructure.

Previous National govt yes .I'm looking forward to what the current govt comes up with being more genuine with their Global warming green intentions. Watching with interest.

[Justin]

Thanks for the link arc. Good to see THL considering this early but I'm afraid it is a bit over optimistic to suggest we will have many electric vehicles in our fleet in 18-24 months time. The infrastructure (charging stations) is not there for travelers and is unlikely to be there within that short time frame, unfortunately.

They can charge in the camping ground , only use the extension wire and 3 pin plug will be fine.

[Justin]

Previous National govt yes .I'm looking forward to what the current govt comes up with being more genuine with their Global warming green intentions. Watching with interest.

I believe current government are more environment friendly especially coalition with Green Party:p

[Justin]

Previous National govt yes .I'm looking forward to what the current govt comes up with being more genuine with their Global warming green intentions. Watching with interest.
Is this good entry point now? Drop from 5.13 to 4.85 today :confused:

[sammiesmiles]

I will personally buy some when I see 1 miilion shares traded. be patient.

[Beagle]

My sense is our new Chinese friends are waiting for a bit of heat to come out of the SP before trying to hoover up some more in decent volume from whoever is silly enough to sell them more, (AKA Milford).

[Benny1]

My sense is our new Chinese friends are waiting for a bit of heat to come out of the SP before trying to hoover up some more in decent volume from whoever is silly enough to sell them more, (AKA Milford).

Yeah, I imagine they are still lurking in the background. May need to find some room soon to give a few a safe and sound kiwi home.

[Justin]

I will personally buy some when I see 1 miilion shares traded. be patient.

When you see the 1 million shares traded, probably the sp already rised :(

[sammiesmiles]

When you see the 1 million shares traded, probably the sp already rised :(

Not necessarily. Just look at the previous sp and volume history ;)

[Justin]

Not necessarily. Just look at the previous sp and volume history ;)

Dropped to 4.8 today

[arc]

Dropped to 4.8 today

Either a natural correction after such a hectic run, or possibly a strategic move to lower the buy-in price through short term shorting. Nothing quite like a sharp little decline to rattle the cage of those who purchased near the last top, assuming it would continue upwards...

[hardt]

THL always closes in on the 60DMA every so often.

A lot of these less explosive stocks with very little hot air follow the same sort of pattern.

[Beagle]

Chinese have been buying at around this level. Will be interesting to see over the next few weeks if they continue.

[arc]

Chinese have been buying at around this level. Will be interesting to see over the next few weeks if they continue.
They won't be the only ones

[Jantar]

They won't be the only ones I managed to get a few today right down near the bottom of that dip. I did have to sell SUM others to afford them though. :p

[Benny1]

I managed to get a few today right down near the bottom of that dip. I did have to sell SUM others to afford them though. :p

Had my order in at $4.71 for a couple of days and struck it lucky this afternoon....Makes a change to actually win one for a change :t_up:

[Justin]

Had my order in at $4.71 for a couple of days and struck it lucky this afternoon....Makes a change to actually win one for a change :t_up:

you are so lucky, I topped up too early on yesterday:mad ;:

[Benny1]

This has all gone very quiet over the last couple of weeks. Thought by now we may have had another update relating to a certain Chinese company increasing their holding.
Have they gone off to consider their options?
Or is this just the quiet before the storm returns?

[hardt]

This has all gone very quiet over the last couple of weeks. Thought by now we may have had another update relating to a certain Chinese company increasing their holding.
Have they gone off to consider their options?
Or is this just the quiet before the storm returns?

Could just be your average buy and hold position...

[bonne vie]

9c jump this morning 183,000 plus shares- has the buying started again ?

[RupertBear]

9c jump this morning 183,000 plus shares- has the buying started again ?

May be unrelated but Craigs have just upgraded their TP to $5.85 :D

[percy]

May be unrelated but Craigs have just upgraded their TP to $5.85 :D

Makes good sense to me.
I stayed at Greymouth Top 10 on Sunday and Monday nights,.Full with camper vans.I also drove up to Westport.
I have never seem so many camper vans on the road.

[mondograss]

9c jump this morning 183,000 plus shares- has the buying started again ?

Looks like it, it's been sneaking up a bit the last few days.

[Sideshow Bob]

I have never seem so many camper vans on the road.

Bloody road maggots! :mad ;:

Maybe I should buy some shares, it might make me happier when stuck behind a line of them!

[Beagle]

Queenstown getting extremely congested now and hotel / motel prices are VERY high and will only get worse as the years go by. Lower $Kiwi also helps. To enjoy the great outdoors and get away from the maddening crowds in the most popular places in N.Z. a good quality campervan is an ideal solution. Happy holder.

[minimoke]

And we still have the potential of lurking Chinese

[Beagle]

So heads you win long term and tails you win near term...sounds like a win win to me :)

[Benny1]

So heads you win long term and tails you win near term...sounds like a win win to me :)

And all along the way, you get to pick up some pretty good dividends too :t_up:

[percy]

Bloody road maggots! :mad ;:

Maybe I should buy some shares, it might make me happier when stuck behind a line of them!

Cured me.I own both THL and ATL in Aussie.
Keep saying to myself,"another one of my camper vans."

[Balance]

Cured me.I own both THL and ATL in Aussie.
Keep saying to myself,"another one of my camper vans."

Yup - it's like owning AIA shares and cheering everytime they put up the car park charges instead of complaining when you park there!

[Justin]

May be unrelated but Craigs have just upgraded their TP to $5.85 :D

where to get this information？thanks

[RupertBear]

where to get this information？thanks

Available to Craigs clients not sure if available elsewhere

[Justin]

Tourism Holdings rose 2.6 per cent to $5.05.
"We put a positive research report out about the company, the fact is that with their US-based assets they have become more diversified and are expected to continue to perform," McIntyre said.
"The company has a target of $50m net profit, and there are parts of the market that think that figure is inevitable. Based on that, the multiple they're trading on is well below 15. It's seen as a bit of a value play and has had a tremendous run."

from NZ Hearld

[iceman]

This certainly should be good for THL (and AIR) http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11950698

There is little doubt in my mind that tourism is a good sector to be invested in over the next decade or so, but of course it will always be affected by natural disasters/occurrences, terrorism and wars. But the picture overall looks rosy.

[Oliver Mander]

The upward price movement continuing today..perhaps the Chinese are increasing their stake? Will be interested to watch announcements int he next few days...certainly smells like stake-building to me...

[Beagle]

This certainly should be good for THL (and AIR) http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11950698

There is little doubt in my mind that tourism is a good sector to be invested in over the next decade or so, but of course it will always be affected by natural disasters/occurrences, terrorism and wars. But the picture overall looks rosy.

Thanks mate, posted that link in the AIR thread too. Pretty sure the resident puddy tat will find some way to put a negative slant on it though lol

[Oliver Mander]

Thanks mate, posted that link in the AIR thread too. Pretty sure the resident puddy tat will find some way to put a negative slant on it though lol

Not this puddy tat my friendly hound! This particular cat is purring with pleasure over this...

Disc: hold

[Beagle]

Not this puddy tat my friendly hound! This particular cat is purring with pleasure over this...

Disc: hold

All good mate I wasn't referring to you. You're a good soul.

[Justin]

Hi all. Just curious that USA cut tax will benefit THL’s USA investment?

[minimoke]

Hi all. Just curious that USA cut tax will benefit THL’s USA investment?
I dont know - but I know its up again today hitting $5.30. So must be good news in there somewhere.

[RupertBear]

I dont know - but I know its up again today hitting $5.30. So must be good news in there somewhere.

Suspect the Chinese are gobbling up a few atm....?

Cycling on Otago Penninsula yesterday and got passed (safely) by at least half a dozen camper vans...all APOLLO! Need some more of those eh Percy! :)

[JeremyALD]

Suspect the Chinese are gobbling up a few atm....?

Cycling on Otago Penninsula yesterday and got passed (safely) by at least half a dozen camper vans...all APOLLO! Need some more of those eh Percy! :)

I bought some Apollo but am already down 10% lol. Shouldn't of jumped on the bandwagon in the big up!

[peat]

This idea for a luxury rail service could soak up a few tourists who wouldnt take camper vans

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/345398/orient-express-style-luxury-train-plan-unveiled

I also think something is up with NKorea. UN visit taking place.

Discl holding.

[RupertBear]

I bought some Apollo but am already down 10% lol. Shouldn't of jumped on the bandwagon in the big up!

Yep I hear you. I am trying to resist catching the falling knife atm but dont want to miss out on getting a few while its down from its recent highs....hmmm :confused:

[minimoke]

This idea for a luxury rail service could soak up a few tourists who wouldnt take camper vans

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/345398/orient-express-style-luxury-train-plan-unveiled


Discl holding.
I dot see the Camper Van tourist as being the target market for a luxury train. Two quite different "holiday" expectations

[JeremyALD]

Yep I hear you. I am trying to resist catching the falling knife atm but dont want to miss out on getting a few while its down from its recent highs....hmmm :confused:

I have 70% thl and 30% Apollo so keep that strategy and you should be ok :)

[Justin]

I have 70% thl and 30% Apollo so keep that strategy and you should be ok :)

Will THL acquire ATL? :)

[percy]

Will THL acquire ATL? :)

Had not thought about that.
Maybe,but some how I doubt it.
The market cap of THL is $637mil.eps are 25.66 cents and the PE is 20.54.
ATL's market cap is Au $278mil and the PE is 17.38.
I am 53% THL and 47% ATL.
Today I would rate THL a hold at $5.27, and ATL a buy at au $1.545.

[percy]

Suspect the Chinese are gobbling up a few atm....?

Cycling on Otago Penninsula yesterday and got passed (safely) by at least half a dozen camper vans...all APOLLO! Need some more of those eh Percy! :)

Yes............................

[hardt]

Had not thought about that.
Maybe,but some how I doubt it.
The market cap of THL is $637mil.eps are 25.66 cents and the PE is 20.54.
ATL's market cap is Au $278mil and the PE is 17.38.
I am 53% THL and 47% ATL.
Today I would rate THL a hold and ATL a buy.

Is that a forward PE for ATL and trailing for THL?

[percy]

Is that a forward PE for ATL and trailing for THL?

As per ANZ Securities it is the current PE for both.

Disc.I did sell half my THL on 28th September for $4.95.So the 53% THL and 47% ATL is my current holding.

From work sheets I have.
.................................2018............. ...................2019
THL.PE........................16.................. ..................14.5
ATL..PE.........................14.5.............. ..................12.8

[Justin]

hi all，im found out there is a company called Pacific Horizon been in receivership on 2013, I’m curious anyone knews what’s happen with this company？thanks.

[percy]

hi all，im found out there is a company called Pacific Horizon been in receivership on 2013, I’m curious anyone knews what’s happen with this company？thanks.

Appears to be a very different company from Pacific Horizon MotorHomes Ltd.

[Justin]

How about JUCY？

[percy]

How about JUCY？

I don't seem to see as many as I used to.
Say 10 Mauri/Britz,4 Apollo and 1 or 2 Jucy.

[JeremyALD]

Love THL but it does seem to be getting a bit pricey...

[hardt]

Love THL but it does seem to be getting a bit pricey...

Know of a trustworthy performer that isn't a little pricey? :)

[Beagle]

Know of a trustworthy performer that isn't a little pricey? :)

SUM other opportunities are definitely there for those that look HLG enough...opps sorry hard enough. If you push (PPH) yourself you'll see them. :)

[sb9]

Further good news for tourism...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11959817

Quake-damaged SH1 north of Kaikoura to finally reopen after 'unprecedented' 13 month repair job

[Beagle]

Further good news for tourism...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11959817

Quake-damaged SH1 north of Kaikoura to finally reopen after 'unprecedented' 13 month repair job

That's fantastic news, very pleased indeed for all the people of Kaikoura and surrounds. I've never done the whale watching there but I'm very keen now.

[Scrunch]

Love THL but it does seem to be getting a bit pricey...

Up well over the last couple of days to a new record high of $5.48

[JeremyALD]

Up well over the last couple of days to a new record high of $5.48

I don't know anymore. It's my second largest holding but I'm really getting tempted to sell down. We'll see.

[winner69]

I don't know anymore. It's my second largest holding but I'm really getting tempted to sell down. We'll see.

....and then the takeover offer will come

The Hunter mentioned $6.50 on the TIL thread seeing the market is in takeover mode.

[Beagle]

Just let your profits run I reckon...that's what I'm doing although one or two SP match up's on the close today were quite a surprise even more so than this share :ohmy:

[golden city]

Just keep your belt tied A hostile takeover bid might emerging

[Beagle]

Just keep your belt tied A hostile takeover bid might emerging

I think they'd need to offer at least $7 to get any traction.

[Justin]

It’s the time to sell？ PE up to 21.36now:(

[iceman]

I don't know anymore. It's my second largest holding but I'm really getting tempted to sell down. We'll see.

Don’t !! My third biggest holding and not for sale. PE of 21.36 is based on FY17 profit, which was achieved 2 years earlier than forecast. $50 M NPAT on the way in FY2020 or a PE of around 13.3 at current SP. Dividends gone from 11c in 2014 to 21c in 2017. Should continue to grow substantially. 63% total shareholder return per annum for the last 5 years and I see no reason why it will not continue at pace, bearing in mind this is an industry that can be seriously upset by unforeseen evens such as natural disasters or terrorism. But this is a good hold in my view. DYOR.

Discl. My 3rd biggest holding and happily so.

[iceman]

I note our Chairman Rob Campbell has just become Chairman of Sky City. This is in addition to Summerset and THL. This concerns me a little bit because his influence on both SUM and THL has been great. Sky City may take a lot of his time !!

[Justin]

Don’t !! My third biggest holding and not for sale. PE of 21.36 is based on FY17 profit, which was achieved 2 years earlier than forecast. $50 M NPAT on the way in FY2020 or a PE of around 13.3 at current SP. Dividends gone from 11c in 2014 to 21c in 2017. Should continue to grow substantially. 63% total shareholder return per annum for the last 5 years and I see no reason why it will not continue at pace, bearing in mind this is an industry that can be seriously upset by unforeseen evens such as natural disasters or terrorism. But this is a good hold in my view. DYOR.

Discl. My 3rd biggest holding and happily so.

hi、what’s the 1th and 2nd, thx

[iceman]

hi、what’s the 1th and 2nd, thx

PPH and HBL

[Justin]

hi all，I checked there are only 4500 total rv in the New Zealand market, and we have 4 million plus tourists annual, why the rv companies not increase their fleet to get more market share?

[macduffy]

hi all，I checked there are only 4500 total rv in the New Zealand market, and we have 4 million plus tourists annual, why the rv companies not increase their fleet to get more market share?

Probably because there is still a strong seasonal element to the business and expensive vehicles standing idle aren't profitable.

[Scrunch]

hi all，I checked there are only 4500 total rv in the New Zealand market, and we have 4 million plus tourists annual, why the rv companies not increase their fleet to get more market share?

Not quite a like for like comparison because one RV will be used by several tourists during the year, and probably by several at the same time (I'm guessing but most renter's are likely to be either couples or some family combination)

Particularly as hotel/motel availability tightens up and prices increase, demand is likely to grow.

Disc Holding

[Leftfield]

hi all，I checked there are only 4500 total rv in the New Zealand market, and we have 4 million plus tourists annual, why the rv companies not increase their fleet to get more market share?

IMHO NZ's performance is going to be a less and less important portion of THL's global empire as more and more revenue comes from other markets. Here's a recent summary of their world wide position. THL now claim to be the biggest RV hire firm in the WORLD.

9342

[iceman]

IMHO NZ's performance is going to be a less and less important portion of THL's global empire as more and more revenue comes from other markets. Here's a recent summary of their world wide position. THL now claim to be the biggest RV hire firm in the WORLD.

9342

Spot on Left field but overlooked by many. The $50m profit will not all rely on NZ operations

[Marilyn Munroe]

Probably because there is still a strong seasonal element to the business and expensive vehicles standing idle aren't profitable.

I understand another rental operator with a significant inbound tourist business starts to shed vehicles when the utilisation rate for the category drops below 80%

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[minimoke]

Up another 10% approx in the past week. At this rate I'll be able to afford a holiday none of their campervans.

[Justin]

Up another 10% approx in the past week. At this rate I'll be able to afford a holiday none of their campervans.

As a shareholder, you have to support them and save more money for more Campervan holidays:p

[JeremyALD]

As a shareholder, you have to support them and save more money for more Campervan holidays:p

I was looking recently for one and they are so expensive. Most were around $300+ a month!

[percy]

I was looking recently for one and they are so expensive. Most were around $300+ a month!

About the same cost as two nights at a decent motel.

[winner69]

I was looking recently for one and they are so expensive. Most were around $300+ a month!

I would have thought $10 a day was really cheap

[Beagle]

I would have thought $10 a day was really cheap

I am sure he meant $300+ per day. Not cheap but then again a decent hotel in Queenstown if you can get one will run you to that and then you have to put up with the maddening crowds. I'd pay that just to get out and about in the great outdoors and get away from the crowds. Its on the "to do" list

[JeremyALD]

Woops I meant ONE night :p

Still definitely on my bucket list to do :)

[Justin]

Woops I meant ONE night :p

Still definitely on my bucket list to do :)

how many ppl for $300 per day?

[Beagle]

That'll get you a decent 6 berth campervan mate. Budget on $3,500 for a good newish one in the peak summer season in the South Island including insurance for 10 days. Money well spent I reckon :)

[Sideshow Bob]

For all you fiscally sensible people, Google campervan relocation. Cheap deals available and you can help out your company.

Also www.transfercar.co.nz

[Sideshow Bob]

That'll get you a decent 6 berth campervan mate. Budget on $3,500 for a good newish one in the peak summer season in the South Island including insurance for 10 days. Money well spent I reckon :)

+Fuel
+Camp fees

Not a cheap holiday.

[Justin]

How much the camp fees for one day. Is that most of Mercedes Campervan use diesel? there are much cheaper than 91 petrol:)

[Benny1]

How much the camp fees for one day. Is that most of Mercedes Campervan use diesel? there are much cheaper than 91 petrol:)

Most are diesel.. You also pay the road user charges for the distance you travel...
They are a fun holiday.. Have done a few relocations from CHC to AKL..not for a few years tho.
We are thinking of doing one around the end of Feb... Get a van load of that lovely Marlborough wine on the way 😀

[Raz]

Most are diesel.. You also pay the road user charges for the distance you travel...
They are a fun holiday.. Have done a few relocations from CHC to AKL..not for a few years tho.
We are thinking of doing one around the end of Feb... Get a van load of that lovely Marlborough wine on the way ��

We do a relocate CHC - AKL once a year..well worth it if you like driving.

Nearly up 2 dollars for the year, certainly not two buck chuck..where to get the money for Christmas presents and the holidays...thinking I will sell an apple share or two instead, merry christmas!

[Jantar]

I was looking recently for one and they are so expensive. Most were around $300+ a month! Don't you mean $300+ a day?

[RTM]

+Fuel
+Camp fees

Not a cheap holiday.

I don’t go on holiday to save money !

[iceman]

I go on holidays to enjoy life 😀. Before claiming this is an expensive mode of travel in peak season, look at how much it would cost you to stay in hotels/motels for the same time. If you can get accommodation that is. Particularly if you want to visit Central Otago and Milford Sounds or upper NI

[Beagle]

Yes indeed Iceman. Compare apples with apples. People should check the daily cost of a decent hotel / motel in Queenstown for a family of six, (not the price for a small unit for 2) and add in the daily cost to hire a car. When you do that you'll realise $300 a day is not too bad.

[RupertBear]

I weakened and sold down a few today ..watch it go up swiftly now ;)

[macduffy]

A report on NZ Radio today picked THL as a major winner from the US company tax "reforms".

I don't hold.