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winner69
17-09-2007, 09:37 AM
Old thread not come over?

At a current price of $2.25 the rejected offer made at $2.80 or whatever a few months ago was, in hindsight, something that should not have been rejected.

Do all those who think that $2.80 was not fair value, based a lot on the half year report and guidance given in it, still believe that to be the case?

If sp great buying at the moment then

However THL seem to have gone back to their old ways and not really giving the market any great confidence in their ability to really deliver.

scamper
17-09-2007, 11:02 AM
i suspect it was pretty good value, and i would have sold had i been in nz.
sadly i was off gallivanting for three months, and could neither remember the size of my holding or the details of selling online.
it could be 12-15 months before we see 280 again.
i'm rather cross with myself. woe!

Toddy
24-09-2007, 10:33 AM
SP may stay down for quite some time.

THL
24/09/2007
HALTRECQ

REL: 1042 HRS Tourism Holdings Limited

HALTRECQ: THL: THL Halt of Securities

NZX Regulation Announcement
Tourism Holdings Limited (THL)
Halt of Securities

NZX Regulation advises that Tourism Holdings Limited (THL) has applied for,
and NZX Regulation ("NZXR") has granted, a trading halt in THL securities.
The trading halt is to enable MFS Living and Leisure to conduct a book build
on the sale of its existing stake in THL. NZXR anticipates that THL will be
in halt for the remainder of today, 24 September 2007.

scamper
24-09-2007, 10:44 AM
it's so long since i had to take notice of this sort of trading halt that i cant remember the implications! i presume that a trading halt and then the behind-the-scenes bargaining has fewer negative effects on the sp than mfs dumping the lot on the open market.

is there a rule that governs whether a trading halt is necessary?

just remembered -- i was offered a bucket full of npx years ago when there was a 'distressed seller'. the market price dropped to around the behind-the-scenes price, maybe 172c, and then pulled away merrily for years.

it would be wishful thinking to imagine thl 'pulling away merrily for years'. cheers.

winner69
31-12-2007, 07:56 AM
Hardly inspiring stuff from the head honcho

" Profits could always be better. It's been an okay year."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10484834


Shouldn't overlook the fact that THL outperformed the NZX (and even NZO) this year ..... up nearly 20% ....... one of the standouts for the year ...... but are many regretting not taking the $2.80 or whatever it was

winner69
23-01-2008, 08:24 PM
With a current price of 191 that 280 that MFS offered seems a long way off

MFS accused of 'over paying' for a lot of the succesful acquisitions made so on reflection the 280 offered for THL was on the high side as well

Oh well -- some held out and all have suffered since ..... but it would be an interesting life for THL under MFS control at the moment eh

winner69
14-06-2008, 10:32 AM
THL back to it's old habits in disappointing punters

Nearly 50% down from the offer last year .... and the way MFS or whatever it is called now has gone it might have been on the block again .... at bargain basement prices.

Most likely many saying that that 280 solds good now


THL back on the watchlist again .... might be another ride from sub $1 to $3 sometime

Billy Boy
14-06-2008, 12:57 PM
They had to get rid of the coach lines as the tour market is drying up,
fuel up, costs in general up, and no quality driver/courier's comming on.
The capitial outlay too profits just was'nt there for them in that bizz.
They may get out of rest of the coaching endevours as, again, Costs
/profits may not stack up.

I am supprised they ditched the Red Boats and their holding in Milford.

However lets see how they pan out. watchlist stuff me thinks
BB

macduffy
14-06-2008, 01:49 PM
It seems to me that for whatever reason, the tourism business is hard to make work at public company level. Perhaps it's too capital and labour intensive and the big operators don't have the flexibility to be able to adjust to the rapid cyclical changes.
Those with long memories will remember Trans Tours of the 60's/70's, a similar company to THL, at least on the transport side in that they operated fleets of buses and campervans. A good performer for quite some time that eventually fell on hard times. NZ listed hotel companies, Rainbows End and the Christchurch gondola company have all found the going difficult. Don't mention Air NZ!
It's not a sector that I feel comfortable with any more.

:(

Grimy
14-06-2008, 07:36 PM
Definitely a sector that has its ups and downs. However, a sector that I have either had at least one company in my portfolio, or looking at which one to ditch or acquire. Air NZ actually made me a tidy profit several years ago, and could have again a few times, but talk about a rollercoaster. THL has always been of interest, but I've never held. Probably not quite the right time yet, but maybe before too long......

ratkin
15-06-2008, 02:56 AM
Problem is that the campervan hirers are fat yanks , brits or europeans. They been hit by probable recession , poor exchange rates petrol price hikes etc
Combine this with other companies offering rent a wreck type deals and you end up with half the fleet sitting idle but losing value.

No doubt they will have a good year when the worlsd cup comes around but that still a long way off

winner69
16-06-2008, 07:40 AM
Thanks ratkin and patsy ... for reminding me about the yard full of campervans not generating any income, why a high or is it a high dollar seems to stop tourists coming to the country, how high fuel prices stop people flying to this country, how the Olympics always seem to affect THL and and .... and .... and ....


And thanks for reminding me that their business is capital intensive and it requires high usage rates to make decent money ... and that it is pretty labout intensive and only makes a margin on top of this

And thanks for reminding me that THL is a perrenial non-performer and invariably disappoints the market and it appears as if nothing has changed

And thanks for reminding me that it is stupid of me to put THL back on the old watchlist because one day it might come right

Steve
18-06-2008, 08:23 PM
Winner - the usage rate is a concept that THL has never understood and has been one of the reasons for its own demise: contrary to common sense, a high campervan usage rate is less profitable than an optimal (lower) usage rate. A high usage rate means disproportionally higher maintenance costs and more frequent replacement.

THL has consistently insisted on full utilisation simply because they believe that the market focuses on sales levels, not profit levels. A utilisation rate of around 10% below the usual top summer rate, would act as leverage on bottom line. That is, slightly lower sales would help achieve significant cost reduction thus giving a higher bottom line.

... but who can explain this to those who come from NZ Lotteries and believe that this business should be managed the same, as an intangible product one, in which sales and costs follow a perfectly correlated and linear relationship?

"Come back, Pickup - all is forgiven"

I think that Patsy is hitting a nail on the head. Industry inexperience obviously counts for little, unless you are lucky enough to be receiving the paycheck...

patsy
11-11-2008, 02:40 PM
Today, the sp is at 87c.... a level not seen since November 1998. For shareholders, ten years of no capital growth, just some divvies.

What a shame.

winner69
12-11-2008, 04:28 PM
Biggest disappointment ever this comapny eh Patsy

I always have a laugh when they say they are 'well positioned' for when things improve ...... things may improve .... but generally not for long suffering THL shareholders

What price did dhareholders reject last year? Bugger they say now

J R Ewing
12-11-2008, 08:19 PM
From the CEO's address THL sys it has a market dominant position and a well defined strategy. The address also says:

"Although the yields are currently challenging, Explore More and our rebranded Backpacker product has gained market dominance and has curtailed the growth and product mix of competitors. More importantly, we have extended the useful rental life of our smaller vehicles in preference to selling them to low cost start-ups.
Over the next 12 months we will continue to grow our discount product offerings particularly, as we are seeing signs of consumers chasing value in the tighter economic environment."

To me, that implies that the biggest threat to yield in the Maui and Britz brands are the expanding Explore More and Backpacker brands.

parker1other
05-01-2009, 08:05 PM
please do tell, would you buy back in to THL in this recession?

JBmurc
09-01-2009, 09:29 AM
certainly wouldn't be the worse stock to hold if the divies keep coming at 11c = 15% yield
both NZ & AUS are great countries to travel by campers THL have core holdings in both
whats others views at 60c-70c little downside in CAP with KEY taking on tourism role??

On the watchlist for the mo

JBmurc
09-01-2009, 10:55 AM
LOL ... Zero chance of that!

Of a 11c ann divie? or the worse stock to hold ?

J R Ewing
09-01-2009, 12:12 PM
Any dividend payment at all would be a good result in the current environment. Times are getting tough in the tourism industry.

Dr_Who
17-02-2009, 02:46 PM
Anyone know THL's debt level?

Saves me time going throu the annual report.

Cheers

winner69
18-02-2009, 09:13 AM
Any dividend payment at all would be a good result in the current environment. Times are getting tough in the tourism industry.

So no dividend is a bad result?

THL plunge into loss territory and things look tough going forward

J R Ewing
18-02-2009, 11:30 AM
So no dividend is a bad result?

THL plunge into loss territory and things look tough going forward

This result is not unexpected in the current environment. It is likely that some competitors are finding things equally tough. Their comments about a trend towards last minute bookings and an oversupply in the industry is correct. Right now, at the absolute peak tourist season, there are plenty of vehicles available. The strategy of arriving in Auckland and shopping for the best deal can pay off this year (although it is still risky). A few years ago anyone trying this spent the first few days of the holiday searching for ANY vehicle. After walking the streets and phoning around they would take whatever was offered at more or less any price!

I do find it a bit rich that THL blames the rest of the market for this oversupply. They have recently launched and expanded Explore More, which is a market leader in terms of unsustainably low prices. This brand actually guarantees to have the lowest prices. THL rationalizes this as being a "defensive" position, but I do think it will be difficult to transform this brand (and Backpacker) into higher yield operations later on.

J R Ewing
18-02-2009, 03:19 PM
Interestingly, a couple of days ago, Daniel Alpe (son of Chris Alpe, founder of THL's Maui and who now operates Ezy Rentals after leaving THL), said that campervan rental volumes were holding pretty well so I don't buy THL's argument that there is an oversupply in the market.



Yes, some operators are maintaining or increasing volumes - although this in itself doesn't necessarily equate to maintaining bottom line performance. Prices are just as important as utilisation. I wasn't suggesting that THL had out-performed the rest of the industry or that their current situation was an inevitable result of the market conditions. My original point some weeks ago was that given THL's relatively low profitability when compared with turnover in the boom periods, the prospects of a dividend once the downturn arrived was very low. If they had been able to declare even a modest interim dividend, in my opinion that would have been an excellent result. They have made an improvement to the balance sheet and should be commended for that.

I doubt that there are any rental operators, Ezy (now Jucy) included, that are enjoying the current market conditions. There IS an oversupply of both cars and campervans - and as a consequence "normal" summer rates have only been achieved over the Xmas and February peaks. Rates have been offered over this summer that would previously only have been available in the off-season, and THL (and others including Jucy) have lead the way in this regard. Note that Jucy ALSO guarantees to have the cheapest prices. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out where this is heading!

winner69
26-04-2009, 07:18 PM
SARS and bird flu stuffed the THL shareprice so what will swine flu do it?

J R Ewing
29-04-2009, 08:04 AM
By Jenny Ruth

Tuesday 28th April 2009


Campervan rental operator Tourism Holdings' extensive restructuring over
recent years means it is now focused on the free and independent traveler
(FIT) market, says McDouall Stuart.

"This segment is likely to offer the highest growth in the future and should
boost opportunities in motor home rentals in both Australia and New
Zealand," it says. Increasing competition between airlines and higher
tourism promotion spending in New Zealand and Australia are likely to
enhance the company's prospects.

It is also likely to be assisted by the recent weakness in both the New
Zealand and Australian dollars, if sustained, it says.

Nevertheless, margins can be volatile as high fixed costs and high capital
expenditure makes it susceptible to demand fluctuations. And the company
didn't pay an interim dividend as directors focused on debt reduction in the
uncertain global economic environment.

"Tourism flow will continue to be adversely impacted by the global economic
conditions."

It is forecasting no profit this year, compared with $14.3 million last
year, and just $1.4 million in 2010, rising to $4.6 million in 2011. While
it values the shares at 77 cents compared with the 45 cent share market
price in late April, its recommendation is "hold" until the global economy
improves.



BROKER CALL: McDouall Stuart rate Tourism Holdings (THL) as HOLD


They must be valuing on the basis of assets I suppose. $75 million works out as quite a large multiple of profit no matter which of the three years you use! I trust that forecast for 2011 is conservative - isn't that Rugby World Cup year?

J R Ewing
01-05-2009, 10:41 AM
Article from stuff.co.nz



Workers at Hamilton-based Caravans International Munro may find out next week if a further 67 jobs are to go, two months after the company's last round of redundancies.

CI Munro, which builds and rents out motorhomes and caravans, is a division of Tourism Holdings Ltd, and reported a loss of $3.2 million in the six months to December 31.

The company told workers on Tuesday of its planned 67 redundancies, and expected to finish consulting with staff and the union by next Tuesday.

Tourism Holdings chief financial officer Ian Lewington told NZPA there had been no intention to make further cuts after 20 positions were culled in February.

The company had managed to retain about 12 others at that time by moving them to the growing fabrication business.

"Since then the outlook for tourism has deteriorated and the uncertainty in the world economy has meant the outlook for the build requirements in terms of caravans and motorhomes is lower than expected," Mr Lewington said.

If the full 67 go, the company will have almost halved in size from the beginning of the year when it employed more than 170 staff.

The company was not hopeful an alternative to job cuts would be found, but would consider any changes that made sense.

The Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union (EPMU) had entered consultation with the company to seek alternatives, such as introducing a nine-day fortnight.

"The company had indicated to me that they had looked at the nine-day fortnight but they don't believe it's workable," union organiser Peter Cooper-Davies said.

"I would say that the EPMU spent three weeks talking with Fisher & Paykel on the proposed deal that they did under the nine-day fortnight."

Fisher & Paykel Appliances said last month that signing up to the Government's nine-day fortnight until September would prevent about 60 redundancies in its Auckland refrigeration assembly workforce.

The company has since announced nearly 30 further job losses, although they were in different divisions of the business.

Mr Cooper-Davies had asked for an extension to the one-week consultation period, which was the minimum required under the collective agreement.

"Whilst the company has met their requirements in regards to consultation for redundancies, as per the collective, I believe due to the actual impact it's going to have -- you're talking probably three-quarters of the production line staff going -- that it would have been nice to have been told earlier," he said.

End


That will result in an overall aging of the fleet, and possibly increased emphasis on the Backpacker and ExploreMore brands. Perhaps THL sees the FIT market segment as being less quality conscious? The danger in this approach is that it could take a significant capital injection in a few years time to bring the fleet back to a relatively young age in order to offer the premium product.

gravy train
30-06-2009, 06:09 PM
There were two significant end of day trades today of 1.5M shares at 40c and 1.9M at 40.5c taking the SP lower. From my observation this the largest volume in nearly 2 years and the 3rd highest over 10 years. A larger investor getting out? Any views as to who is selling and why?.

DISC: watcher, not owner

winner69
30-06-2009, 06:42 PM
Well spotted gt .... yes a big volume day.

Could be AXA as they have been selling down for a while and as June 30 conveniently was an end of a quarter thought may have thought it better not having to own up to to having too many ... conjecture only. Schroeders had a SSH notice the other day as well.

Story in yesterdays paper saying no wage increase for the workers and saying something like 'at best no indication of next year being better than this year' .... round about way of saying next yaer stuffed i think

However somebody must have bought these shares eh ... must think them a bargain - goen from sub $1 to good prices in the past bur THL is a perennial underperformer.

I bet punters wishing they took $2.80 on offer a year or so ago .... but then the share was so underpriced on potential it was going to $5 .... yeah right

winner69
30-06-2009, 06:48 PM
But then the outfit who wanted to buy them went bust anyway

fwu005
30-06-2009, 07:43 PM
But then the outfit who wanted to buy them went bust anyway

SUBSTANTIAL SHAREHOLDERS AT LAST NOTICE

Tower Corporation 13/08/2004 5,038,222 5.10%
Oliham Trust 13/08/2004 4,500,000 4.60%
K D Cushing Family Trust 13/08/2004 7,846,484 8.00%
Drake Associates LP, Sterling Grace Capital Management LP, Sterling Grace International LLC 16/03/2007 16,652,133 17.00%
AXA Asia Pacific Holdings Ltd 21/03/2007 12,184,761 12.41%
Cushing, David 10/03/2005 9,346,484 9.52%
Forsyth Barr Limited 10/03/2005 13,327,085 13.57%

biker
30-06-2009, 08:10 PM
SUBSTANTIAL SHAREHOLDERS AT LAST NOTICE

Tower Corporation 13/08/2004 5,038,222 5.10%
Oliham Trust 13/08/2004 4,500,000 4.60%
K D Cushing Family Trust 13/08/2004 7,846,484 8.00%
Drake Associates LP, Sterling Grace Capital Management LP, Sterling Grace International LLC 16/03/2007 16,652,133 17.00%
AXA Asia Pacific Holdings Ltd 21/03/2007 12,184,761 12.41%
Cushing, David 10/03/2005 9,346,484 9.52%
Forsyth Barr Limited 10/03/2005 13,327,085 13.57%

Why would these professional investors still be holding this 'how not to' of a business model?
And on the other hand, unless you think the outfit is going out of business, why sell now?
I know this stock has dissapointed brokers and punters alike, over the years. A decade ago I actually took a good profit out of this outfit. Hindsight tells me it was sheer luck.

Phaedrus
30-06-2009, 09:00 PM
You can make TA as complicated as you like but it is hard to see the need for complexity in cases like this. THL was in an uptrend for years. The uptrend ended and now THL has been in a downtrend for years. The On Balance Volume indicator provided excellent early warning of the reversal and has not given even a hint of a "Buy" signal since. What more could you ask?

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/THL630.gif

fwu005
30-06-2009, 10:45 PM
You can make TA as complicated as you like but it is hard to see the need for complexity in cases like this. THL was in an uptrend for years. The uptrend ended and now THL has been in a downtrend for years. The On Balance Volume indicator provided excellent early warning of the reversal and has not given even a hint of a "Buy" signal since. What more could you ask?

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/THL630.gif

Hi
How to get those charts ? which compay can provide such function ?

Phaedrus
04-07-2009, 11:00 AM
Hi Fwu005, I use MetaStock software to create my charts, but there are plenty of other equally good programs such as SuperCharts, Insight Trader, Ezy Chart Pro etc.

There are now such good charting facilities available free on the net, that it
is no longer necessary to buy your own software in order to use TA effectively. Incrediblecharts would be one of the better on-line alternatives.

elZorro
05-07-2009, 02:27 PM
I refer to part of the article already posted about CI Munro in May 2009:

Quote:
Workers at Hamilton-based Caravans International Munro may find out next week if a further 67 jobs are to go, two months after the company's last round of redundancies.

CI Munro, which builds and rents out motorhomes and caravans, is a division of Tourism Holdings Ltd, and reported a loss of $3.2 million in the six months to December 31.

The company told workers on Tuesday of its planned 67 redundancies, and expected to finish consulting with staff and the union by next Tuesday.

Tourism Holdings chief financial officer Ian Lewington told NZPA there had been no intention to make further cuts after 20 positions were culled in February.

The company had managed to retain about 12 others at that time by moving them to the growing fabrication business.

"Since then the outlook for tourism has deteriorated and the uncertainty in the world economy has meant the outlook for the build requirements in terms of caravans and motorhomes is lower than expected," Mr Lewington said.

If the full 67 go, the company will have almost halved in size from the beginning of the year when it employed more than 170 staff "

Part of the sad story of this proud regional business upping sticks and moving to Hamilton, is that it may have dropped some of its support base of skilled workers, and also happened to move at just the wrong time. Senior management should be looking hard at themselves over this mistake.

-elZorro-

Spooko
05-07-2009, 08:20 PM
There are now such good charting facilities available free on the net, that it is no longer necessary to buy your own software in order to use TA effectively. Incrediblecharts would be one of the better on-line alternatives.

Phaedrus - am new to TA and this forum. Incrediblecharts does not appear to support nz stocks...do you have any other recommendations for free charting the NZX?

With thanks.

Phaedrus
05-07-2009, 08:31 PM
IncredibleCharts is able to import NZ data from free sources such as Yahoo. There have been quite a few posts here explaining how to do this, most of them in the thread entitled "Incredible sharts NZ shares?"
You probably did a search for charts and therefore missed this one!!!!

forest
05-07-2009, 08:51 PM
I have just edit my alternative spelling of "shart" to the more convential "chart" to help find the post easier :)

Forest

whirly
05-07-2009, 10:46 PM
i prefer inconvential sharting methods. Best not to follow the flock...:rolleyes:

chippy52
06-07-2009, 06:57 AM
([QUOTE=Spooko;263478]Phaedrus - am new to TA and this forum. Incrediblecharts does not appear to support nz stocks...do you have any other recommendations for free charting the NZX?

This is from the Incredible chart thread. The other thing to note is data is a couple of days old.

You can do it Forrest but I dont think you can load the whole exchange at one time

Here is the path
Open Incedible Charts
At top left of screen
click on Securities
scroll down to
LOAD SYMBOL FROM YAHOO
enter code and load exchange in lower part of window

forest
06-07-2009, 01:37 PM
Thats right chippy, it takes a bit of time loading up the NZ shares, but its very doable, because the NZ exchanges is small and there are plenty of NZ companies you probably want to leave out for one or another reason.

The other limitation is that stock screen doesn't seem to work on the NZ shares.

Spooko
06-07-2009, 05:26 PM
Thanks folks. Certainly enough to get started - look forward to contributing to the forum once up and going.

minimoke
28-07-2009, 11:52 AM
Some news about to come out of THl soon? up 10.9% at the moment

sharer
28-07-2009, 01:01 PM
Buyers want over 6X what Sellers have on the table today ...

COLIN
28-07-2009, 02:50 PM
Some news about to come out of THl soon? up 10.9% at the moment

The new cycleways - they're going to bring hordes of Chinese to these shores - they might even bring their own bikes!
I see that AIR is up too. Personally I stay well clear of anything to do with the tourist industry - too fickle.

Dr_Who
28-07-2009, 02:54 PM
The new cycleways - they're going to bring hordes of Chinese to these shores - they might even bring their own bikes!
I see that AIR is up too. Personally I stay well clear of anything to do with the tourist industry - too fickle.

ROFL... Chinese people dont cycle for fun and especially not up hilly slops. Only the peasants in China cycles. The new cycleway is a total waste of money. It will be built and everyone will try it for the first few months. After that people will forget it even existed, abit like the cycleways dotted around Auckland.

Hoop
28-07-2009, 06:06 PM
Some news about to come out of THl soon? up 10.9% at the moment

Maybe they bought a bike shop

blackcap
29-07-2009, 05:18 PM
Dr Who

Dont discount the Europeans, they love cycling. I know in Holland many ppl do cycle tours around the country with their tents and equipemt on the back of their cycles and go around for a week looking at the scenerey.

It could be a winner.

Arbitrage
29-07-2009, 06:21 PM
It is the high value tourists, such as the Europeans, that these cycleways attract. If you do the rail trail in Otago, food and accommodation are not cheap. But it is a fantastic experience you won't get anywhere else in the world.

Dusty
03-08-2009, 06:28 PM
Strong resistence at 50 cents has been broken and will now turn to support and should push through 52 level, charts looks good with Indicators such as RSI, MACD but my resources are not great as I am having to make do with Direct broking chart as I am travelling so cannot download charting software at many internet cafes.
Lead up to August 26 results will be an interesting time for THL, will the div return?

minimoke
04-08-2009, 09:01 AM
Strong resistence at 50 cents has been broken and will now turn to support and should push through 52 level,
.60 may be the new resistance level.

Grimy
04-08-2009, 05:50 PM
Still a gazillion un-rented camper vans parked up around Auckland airport area (of all companies).
I wouldn't be jumping in yet.

Dusty
05-08-2009, 05:50 PM
THL up again, straight through 60 resistence level when NZX down. Bought into THL with a longer term view in mind targeting 2011 increased tourism numbers especially in my opinion the Chinese along with the Rugby world cup, very few fans are going to Cross the world and not tack a holiday onto their world cup plans, chart showing strength but now I think there could be several chances to trade this company profitably between now and then.
Share rise has been supported by decent volume however majority are small parcels going through, 1000/2000/3500?

Zito
05-08-2009, 09:54 PM
Not sure what the driver is for the recent rise off its lows around 45c but I was lucky enough to get in at 47c with the longterm trendline break.

Obviously the NZX have their suspicions as well as they have queried THL as to the sudden price rise which has been on fairly solid volume.

I have watched this shareprice fall for quite some time now always intending to enter on the break in the long term trendline. I often wonder why people buy a share in a downtrend when it is the easiest thing in the world to wait for the reversal to occur before jumping in.

Your money can be working somewhere else in the meantime!

Dusty
06-08-2009, 12:52 AM
Not sure what the driver is for the recent rise off its lows around 45c but I was lucky enough to get in at 47c with the longterm trendline break.

Obviously the NZX have their suspicions as well as they have queried THL as to the sudden price rise which has been on fairly solid volume.

I have watched this shareprice fall for quite some time now always intending to enter on the break in the long term trendline. I often wonder why people buy a share in a downtrend when it is the easiest thing in the world to wait for the reversal to occur before jumping in.

Your money can be working somewhere else in the meantime!

Similar method as me, I got in at 49c. I have been scouring the internet looking for the driver as well. I thought MOT may have changed it forecasts for tourists to NZ, they have but it has been downgraded to 2.5% for 2010from 4%. This along with several comments that even this may be hard to achieve, a spike of 6.5% during 2011 however. Only news from THL is that they have are still complying with disclosures rules. Anyone else got an idea?
Only other thing is Aussie visitors are up and their market is performing so well, THL low was 41c in early July. This can't just be speculation because Volume was has been over 500,00 and 400,000 on some of the respected days which is much greater than the usual trading range.

Dusty
06-08-2009, 01:13 AM
Similar method as me, I got in at 49c. I have been scouring the internet looking for the driver as well. I thought MOT may have changed it forecasts for tourists to NZ, they have but it has been downgraded to 2.5% for 2010from 4%. This along with several comments that even this may be hard to achieve, a spike of 6.5% during 2011 however. Only news from THL is that they have are still complying with disclosures rules. Anyone else got an idea?
Only other thing is Aussie visitors are up and their market is performing so well, THL low was 41c in early July. This can't just be speculation because Volume was has been over 500,00 and 400,000 on some of the respected days which is much greater than the usual trading range.

ABN halved its valuation of THL to 51c and Forsyth Barr are at $1.13 with both maintaining a hold. Several brokers have downgraded their forecast for results on the 26th from a prefit to a loss. Most probably no dividend this year so surely in spite of the negative forecasts Volume and SP arn't being driven by the Great Kiwi Invite campaign

J R Ewing
07-08-2009, 11:44 AM
The winter ski season in the South Island has been a good one this year, and tourism is getting reasonable growth from the Australian market. That might combine to produce a good result from the off-season. As far as full year prospects go, the main summer season is far more critical. There may still be a downturn in the high value tourists from Europe and North America. I would look for a comment as to how forward bookings are in comparison with last year before deciding if this "green shoot" is real. Either that or trust the charts I suppose.

I'm not a holder, just an interested spectator.

winner69
26-08-2009, 12:27 PM
Nothing to exciting in the announcement today and pretty non-committal about the future

Had to smile when discontinued operations made a proft while ongoing operations made a loss

See shareprice is down from the 64 cents when NZX questioned why .... down to 54 cents now

Spose thats where it'll hang around for a while

J R Ewing
26-08-2009, 12:51 PM
One of the achievements mentioned is increased market share of hire days. This is of course contributing to the poor yield. Expansion needs to be justified by increased profits, as you can't pay out market share and enhanced brands as a dividend to the shareholders.

J R Ewing
08-09-2009, 09:29 AM
I found this on ShareChat:

"Daily ShareChat: Tourism Holdings
By Jenny Ruth

Monday 7th September 2009

Tourism Holding's result was ugly, again impacted by restructuring, discontinued activities, divestments, continuing losses at campervan builder CI Munro, reclassifications and accounting treatment changes, says First NZ Capital analyst Jason Familton.

But once all that was stripped out, "underlying earnings were slightly stronger than anticipated." That was a net loss of $1.4 million compared with Familton's $3.1 million estimate.

The current financial year looks like it will be difficult for the company with softening visitor arrivals and an over-supplied New Zealand domestic market negatively impacting earnings, he says.

"While some internal positives are expected from a turn-around at CI Munro (as the cost-base is reduced) and also Explore More moving out of the start-up phase, we do not anticipate any significant earnings growth until (financial) 2011."

Familton is forecasting a $0.5 million net profit for the current year and $7.5 million in the year ending June 2011.

"Given the current uncertainty around earnings, and in particular earnings momentum over the next 12 months, we struggle to find a near-term positive catalyst for the share price to recover from its current subdued level," he says.

But in 12 months time visitor numbers should have started to rebound and the market will be looking forward to 2011 and the boost from the Rugby World Cup. Familton values the shares at $1.01.


BROKER CALL: First NZ Capital rate Tourism Holdings (NZX: THL ) as outperform.



Daily ShareChat articles report how the main experts in the market might view a certain share and we provide this commentary as a useful resource for investors. Content on this site does not in any way constitute a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any particular share. Investors should always seek professional advice before making any investment decisions."

I'm a little surprised that he predicts just a $0.5 mil net profit for the next year and then values the company at $100 mil. They do seem to be expecting better things in 2011, but however good RWC is for THL it is still a one-off influence.

LJB
08-09-2009, 10:16 AM
I held THL a number of years ago when its SP was well over $2 and made wee bit on them too. A company with such promise and one that I enjoyed seeing in action every time I passed a Maui van or a tour bus with THL written in small type under the drivers window. They virtually had a monopoly on camper vans with Maui and Britz and big events like the Sidney Olympics and the America's Cup were forecast to bring people in their droves to Australia and NZ to spend up large on THL's vans, tours and attractions.

What a blimmin disappointment. 'Big eventitis' resulted in visitors staying exclusively in Sydney and Auckland. The Germans stopped coming (for a while at least), the Japs stopped coming, while others came and went in a totally unpredictable ebb and flow as NZ's tourism industry was and remains at the mercy of outside events. In the meantime ther eare are plethora of competitive options for independent travelers that are not part of the THL stable.

IMHO THL's shareprice will track sideways ad infinitum. Investing in tourism related companies is a way too lumpy and unpredictable ride for this investor. However, some of you day traders probably make money out THL as false hopes,flash adverts and questionable stats get people excited about THL from time to time.

J R Ewing
09-09-2009, 09:43 AM
Accumulating .... ;)

And so is the CEO...

Snoopy
20-10-2009, 10:04 AM
As far as full year prospects go, the main summer season is far more critical.


Over the last week I have relocated a THL campervan from Christchurch to Auckland so have gained some first hand consumer knowledge of this business I thought shareholders might be interested in.

A relocation means THL reduce the daily hire charge to $5, although you as the hirer still have to pay for diesel road user tax and the diesel itself. Furthermore you have to pay for your own Picton to Welington ferry ticket, although THL pays for the van. It also means you don't have a choice over what campervan you take. I 'got lucky' and was allocated a 'top of the line' Maui brand camper, a Mercedes Sprinter. Having never hired a campervan before, I was amazed at how much road space one can take up with a vehicle that could only take two people. The darn thing was 7.1m long and 3m high, just short of requiring at HT licence to drive I would guess. I'll get the good bit over first.

What looked like an intimidating prospect was actually quite easy to drive. If I hadn't been looking down at all those other tiny little vehicles on the road -actually full size four wheel drives- I wouldn't have believed I was in such a road hog. The bed was very comfortable too, although I did sleep with the mattress 'doubled up' which probably helped. Fuel cost was just under $140 (I used around 130litres), plus $50 diesel tax. Over 1100km that is 8.5km/l or around 24mpg in the old money, probably reasonable for a vehicle of that size driven rapidly.

Unfortunately I had to drive rapidly due to what I considered a rather incompetant check out procedure. I was booked on the 2pm Picton ferry with a 1pm reporting time. I knew I would have to get away early. So I turned up at THL Christchurch Airport Base waiting for the 8am opening time. First customer in, I was duly shown in and offered a cup of coffee while I waited. Then I had to watch an explanatory DVD for the van, which took about half an hour. Following this, there was another 15 minutes or so sorting out paperwork before I was away. That gave me four and a quarter hours to drive to Picton in something the size of a bus in bad weather! The staff didn't seem at all concerned at this driving challenge they had set me. I was just lucky I had chosen Bluebridge and not the Interislander or my timetable would have been even tighter! When I gave the van back at the other end I found out that the two other people who were handing back campervans at the same time had each taken an hour to pick up their vans. So it would seem my 45 minute getaway time was 'lucky'.

Somehow I did manage to drive up to Picton in 4.25 hours, by going non stop and virtually flat out. I think it was my fastest trip up ever in any motor vehicle. Only one person passed me on the way and they got hauled over by the law. However, when I arrived there was more drama. THL had booked me a ticket, but there was nothing for the van! Desperate phone calls to Christchurch followed and eventually I got on the boat moments before it sailed. The fact that the Bluebridge staff seemed unflapped by the paperwork stuff up made me believe that what had happened to me may not have been an isolated incident!

The weather on the first three days was atrocious, so it didn't matter that the windscreen washers were not working. Something that caused me slightly more distress was on the second day when the ESP warning light came on and the indicators stopped working. That introduced an extra driving challenge, to try and arrive at my destination by only driving straight ahead! OK I admit I had to make a couple of turns in quiet back streets. The next day all of the electrics seem to function again.

I tried to report the electrical defects when I dropped off the campervan. But while someone with a clipboard noted any issues with the van returned in front of me, no one wrote down my complaints. I hope the girl who checked off my van had a good memory and did it later, as sending out a van with faults is a sure way of turning a happy camper into a hapless camper. I am not sure of the competance of the mechanics either. A chap in front of me wanted the clock on his campervan adjusted (it was four hours out) and the mechanic couldn't do it! Just in case you were wondering, none of the campers had owners manuals with them.

My overall impression of THL was of not enough staff, poorly trained. I knew there were different grades of campervans you could hire but I was very surprised to find there were four: Maui, Britz, Backpacker and Explore. Isn't that market segmenting gone mad? What are THL thinking? I have never held shares in THL and I can't say that my experience has me hanging out to invest. If you ask me whether I would hire a van from them at normal price ( I was quoted $155 per day ), then I probably wouldn't. But would I relocate a van for them again? Probably yes, but I would allow more time between connections. knowing how THL operate!

SNOOPY

discl: do not hold THL

Snoopy
20-10-2009, 10:51 AM
Over the last week I have relocated a THL campervan from Christchurch to Auckland so have gained some first hand consumer knowledge of this business I thought shareholders might be interested in.


Oh and one more thing. Normally when you hire a vehicle you have to put up a bond for the amount not covered by vehicle insurance. That is fair enough. Normally you write out a credit card voucher which is then 'ripped up' if you bring your vehicle back safely.

However, having just got my credit card account today I see that I have been charged for my bond as a transaction. I was assured when I returned the van that this charge will be reversed. But it will be interesting to see how long THL take to refund my money. I wouldn't normally mention what is quite a minor thing. But if THL have taken $800 off me as a loan (which is in effect what they have done), spread over a fleet of camper vans that amounts to a lot of cash on the books that is not really theirs. While I was shown how to cook on my campervan stove, was the company at the same time cooking their own cash books?

Also I was surprised to see a 2% surcharge on my credit card payments. I know the banks have got a good little racket going here clipping the ticket whereever credit cards are flashed. But generally companies do not push this charge through to the consumer. I always thought the trade off for businesses over credit card bank charges was that the bank guarantees that the merchant will in fact get paid, saving the merchant having to chase unpaid accounts. Perhaps some businesses have forgotten that?

SNOOPY

sharer
20-10-2009, 12:57 PM
Thanks for that report Snoopy. This is so different from the company we originally invested in. I was hanging on reluctantly hoping for better prices as the rugby fanatics invade the country in a year or more, which i suppose will still happen. But with no dividend income to justify a place, it seemed the stars had lined up for a prompt booting out.
However, today it looks like there is no market interested in my shares.:(

Snoopy
20-10-2009, 05:03 PM
Thanks for that report Snoopy. This is so different from the company we originally invested in. I was hanging on reluctantly hoping for better prices as the rugby fanatics invade the country in a year or more, which i suppose will still happen. But with no dividend income to justify a place, it seemed the stars had lined up for a prompt booting out.
However, today it looks like there is no market interested in my shares.


I'm not trying to say whether anyone should buy or sell THL Sharer. I was just calling things as I found them. Generally my investment strategy is to look for 'good' companies that have suffered some kind of setback. Then I buy in cheaply and wait for the recovery.

THL is a company I *want* to like. Tied as it is to overseas tourism, and knowing what a good place NZ is for tourists I have tended to think:

"What is good for THL is good for NZ."

Mind you the US version that that saying:

"What is good for GM is good for the US."

didn't stop General Motors going bust! I have read this thread from the beginning detailing the sorry tale of this perrennial underachiever. But last week was my first 'direct experience' with THL. I was interested if others experiences mirrored mine, or whether my experiences were atypical. At this stage I am not tempted to bid for your shares myself, Sharer!

SNOOPY

J R Ewing
20-10-2009, 07:03 PM
Oh and one more thing. Normally when you hire a vehicle you have to put up a bond for the amount not covered by vehicle insurance. That is fair enough. Normally you write out a credit card voucher which is then 'ripped up' if you bring your vehicle back safely.

However, having just got my credit card account today I see that I have been charged for my bond as a transaction. I was assured when I returned the van that this charge will be reversed. But it will be interesting to see how long THL take to refund my money. I wouldn't normally mention what is quite a minor thing. But if THL have taken $800 off me as a loan (which is in effect what they have done), spread over a fleet of camper vans that amounts to a lot of cash on the books that is not really theirs. While I was shown how to cook on my campervan stove, was the company at the same time cooking their own cash books?

Also I was surprised to see a 2% surcharge on my credit card payments. I know the banks have got a good little racket going here clipping the ticket whereever credit cards are flashed. But generally companies do not push this charge through to the consumer. I always thought the trade off for businesses over credit card bank charges was that the bank guarantees that the merchant will in fact get paid, saving the merchant having to chase unpaid accounts. Perhaps some businesses have forgotten that?

SNOOPY

Things are changing in the rental industry with respect to bonds. A few years ago a signed blank voucher or some sort of pre-authorization was accepted by most companies. Nowadays there are a plethora of credit and debit cards issued with very low limits. So the company can easily be left holding a worthless bit of paper if the vehicle is damaged. Having said that, I am surprised that you were not told about the insurance excess being charged in advance and that you were not asked to sign to that effect. It could be embarrassing indeed to have considerably less available funds on your card than you thought! Still, at least you will be getting the refund in the same currency. An overseas tourist could easily be significantly out of pocket due to currency conversion charges and fluctuations.

CC Team
27-10-2009, 01:31 PM
Hi Snoopy, Marie at the Customer Care team here. Thanks for your feedback. We were aware of some of your pointers and are already working on them but have taken on board your other comments around relocations that we were not fully aware of. Thanks again for taking the time to comment. MT

Arthur
27-10-2009, 04:13 PM
Sounds like things have improved a bit Snoopy. When we hired (several years ago) we got a two minute talk, then sent on our way. One of the few things we were showed was the "exhaust break". Tried to use it just before a nasty corner and found out it was really the steering wheel height adjustment. As a shareholder I wrote a letter outlining our problems (there were many) and received a standard? letter back saying nothing of merit. Saved me a bit of money though as sold some shares after that experience. Would have saved a lot more if I had dumped when I found out about the genius move to Hamilton. Hot tip - dump these before the World Cup. Based on previous experience such an event could send them under.

flyingfox
24-11-2009, 11:23 AM
Look at today's volume! and what would happen next ?

sharer
24-11-2009, 03:53 PM
...
THL is a company I *want* to like. Tied as it is to overseas tourism, and knowing what a good place NZ is for tourists I have tended to think:
"What is good for THL is good for NZ."
Mind you the US version that that saying:
"What is good for GM is good for the US."
didn't stop General Motors going bust! I have read this thread from the beginning detailing the sorry tale of this perrennial underachiever. ...
SNOOPY

Originally i had the same supportive thoughts re THL Snoopy. Both my own a/c and several charitable trusts i used to direct have held a lot of shares from near the beginning (about the transition from The Helicopter Line towards Tourist Holdings Ltd). For a long time THL has been on my 'potential Sell' lists, as a "perennial underachiever" as you noted. If only they had stuck to their profitable knitting, when they found bouts of success; but the directors kept changing to try something else & most times lost lots of money (but never reduced their own fees of course). After reading some THL horror stories recently, & with no dividends to look forward to just now, i decided the only logical thing was to quit. Unloaded the last few thousand upon our more optimistic unsuspecting fellow investors last week, luckily still at a profit to our holding price of about 34c after so many years.
However, i think they should have been dumped years ago - the missed opportunities cost of stubbornly holding on to a "perennially underachieving" company are hard to calculate, but certainly are great.

troyvdh
24-11-2009, 05:53 PM
I agree sharer...I was into this crowd years ago....sold some at $5.70.....I began to sell when Sir Tim ..started to sell his 12 million....those were exciting days....yep those guys at the beginning seemed to know what worked....now...just camper wagons it seems....

flyingfox
25-11-2009, 01:11 PM
VERY ODD QUITE AFTER A BIG VOLUME..
MYSELF WORK AT SIMILAR BUSINESS WITH WAITOMO CAVE, IT IS REALLY GOOD TIME FOR THE WHOLE INDUSTRY NOW..
HOW COME THL HAVE NO REACTION:confused:

Doyle
17-12-2009, 10:05 AM
Source of todays price spike?

flyingfox
17-12-2009, 11:47 AM
Source of todays price spike?

source?maybe those US fellas,maybe the tourism sector is too good to be ignored any more..

flyingfox
17-12-2009, 11:59 AM
stochastic looks risky

bull....
17-12-2009, 12:28 PM
Looks like a good stock on the charts , the big move today is confirming the breakout in price above resistance at 72c.

I dont see any resistance till 1.32 if breakout holds.

Tourism stocks are all being re - rated now

All in all nothing out of the ordinary with price action its in a up - trend

bull....
22-12-2009, 06:13 PM
Auckland airport traffic figures out today make for positive reading on vistor arrivals.
Should continue the positive trend over coming months.

THL should pick up some of the extra visitors.

winner69
22-12-2009, 08:44 PM
Odd thing about THL over the last decade has been the perverse relationship between tourist numbers and the THL shareprice .... a negative correlation .... quite often more tourists lrads to a worsening shareprice

bull....
23-12-2009, 07:23 AM
Traffic figures showed an increasing amount of Australians coming , We would assume this to continue as the cross rate stays weak. And those Aussies love there campervans I hear lol

winner69
23-12-2009, 08:59 AM
Bull .... here's achart showing visitor numbers and the THL shareprice over the last few years

THL been an enigma eh ..... during the period in the early 00's when visitor numbers boomed the THL shareprice tanked .... The shareprice went up from 2002 to 2007 when visitor numbers were stillrising but I reckon it only went up because most shares went up in that time (and THL had some takeover action going on to push it in the latter part of that period) ..... and during 2008'2009 when visitor numbers have remained very resilience (only down 2%) the share price tanked again

Logic says visitor numbers should be one of the key drivers of THL shareprice .... but the chart suggests otherwise eh ... put it down to poor management or a stuffed business model I have no idea .... but over the last decade its been one long sad story hasn't it

Whether things have turned for the better is anybody's guess ... lets hope so ... the shareprice really can't go any lower

bull....
23-12-2009, 09:10 AM
Hi Winner you show a good chart comparison but your chart does show 2 annomalies in that early 2000 and recently we had major market down turns which all shares declined.

I think if you remove the annomalies ( discrepancy or deviation from an established rule or trend ) the chart would probably reflect a similar trend comparison.

winner69
23-12-2009, 09:28 AM
Long term then you would think that THL sales or profits should move with visitor numbers ..... a constant PE or the like would reflect a 'normalised' share price .... and then you are at the vagaries of market sentiment whether the price is higher or lower than the 'normalised figure'

I'll post a chart showing what I mean later .... it appears more visitors = less sales and profits if the past is anything to go by .... just as well the past is not a reliable indicator of the future eh

bull....
23-12-2009, 10:35 AM
Probably would reflect what you say winner if the company was solely just rentals.

flyingfox
23-12-2009, 11:03 AM
they have a really good cave, especially in summer visitor no. will be boost
But, their management is a problem, i've been there for 3 months

bull....
23-12-2009, 11:29 AM
The rentals should in theory track vistor numbers so any increase in vistor numbers should be reflected in more rental sales.
So the companies figures may be on the low side if the next few mths show good vistor numbers.
CI Munro would be the wildcard as far as profits go.
Bad management can quickly destroy a good operation and it looks like Waitomo caves will be a very profitable operation if managed and marketed well going forward.
I presume your referring to Waitomo Flying fox.

flyingfox
23-12-2009, 12:55 PM
yes bull..do they have any other caves?
i believe thl wil be good at least next few months, but for long term i'm not sure
you mean CI munro will be profitable?i dont think so

bull....
23-12-2009, 01:51 PM
CI Munro i meant maybe the problem with there profit if they cant sort it out.

bull....
23-12-2009, 04:15 PM
Here some RV companies in the US for anyone wants to see how they are performing or to just have a read.

Winnebago - WGO up about 400% from the Lows in March
Fleetwood
Monaco
Newmar

winner69
31-12-2009, 10:53 AM
DB has NTA @ 1.37 ... SP currently .80 !!!

Review of past trends following recessions says that THL bounces back pretty darn quick with just one very sucky year, followed by pickup to near half-to-normal sales followed the next year by a return to the status quo. This is the time to bail as THL never seem to grow all that much following the two years it takes to get back on track.

You saying THL is a SELL then Belg

At 80 cents against a book value of $1.85 the market is already saying that THL will continue it value destruction into the future ... whats changed, THL has never made enought to cover its cost of capital anyway

Interesting comments about their past sales performance .... the chart below shows what has happened over the years .... one thing noticable is that they don't seem to recover much after big drops .... ie almost a long slow miserable decline (or flat at best) .... and one really can't blame recent global events for current performance

So it all comes down to what margin they make on the sales they do make .... Munros stuffed last year and if they fix that you would expect to see $10=$15m NPAT a base going forward (still value destruction territory) which would give some hope of a shareprice around $1.30-$1.50 sometime.

Hey nearly talked myself into buying .... but on principle i don't like investing in -

- value destroyers (ie not covering cost of capital)
- companies that can't seem to grow the revenues line when they should
- companies that seem to lurch from one disaster to another
- companies who don't seem to have any pricing power

But then again I could forget that and go for a short to medium term trade based on TA

You not selling Belg .... wouldn't want you to push down the price quitting your holding

bull....
06-01-2010, 09:21 AM
Tourism Confidence Continues to Improve

Friday 11 December 2009 – For immediate release

The Tourism Industry Monitor shows that the confidence levels of tourism sector operators continue to improve.



Ministry of Tourism Research Manager, Bruce Bassett, said that overall, optimism in the industry was tracking in the right direction, although this wasn’t the case for all operators.



“Tourism is a very broad industry and we’re mindful that while business is good for many, others are still hurting. We’re not out of the woods yet, but the industry’s mood is heading in the right direction and there is optimism about the summer period.”



Just over half of businesses surveyed (52%) expect demand to improve over the next three months and under one third (29%) expect demand to fall, with the balance expecting their situation to remain the same.



Lack of demand continues to be the main factor limiting business performance, cited by three quarters (75%) of businesses surveyed. Competition and discounting also continue to limit performance, cited by 38% of businesses.



The Tourism Industry Monitor is an industry wide initiative. It is designed to provide the industry with monthly information on the performance of the tourism sector, including the short-term outlook. It is led by the Ministry of Tourism, the Tourism Industry Association, Tourism New Zealand and the New Zealand Hotel Council.



For a copy of the Tourism Industry Monitor visit www.tourismresearch.govt.nz/tim.

bull....
08-01-2010, 09:44 AM
Prices showing positive trending behaviour minor resistance at 97c more at 1.32 then 1.50.

The fall from 1.32 to 72 was pretty much freefall so in theory should not be to much overhead resistance till then.

Doyle
08-01-2010, 04:09 PM
I got on board with this one at 77 cents so am fairly happy with performance so far. Should be well placed to take advantage of the Rugby world Cup, I would have thought. But other than that seems little explanation for such a sharp price rise, tourism operators are being revalued, but I wouldn't have thought that would explain the near 40% increase over the last couple of months.

forest
08-01-2010, 07:23 PM
One positive which was brought up at the ann meeting was that within Action Motor Bodies a contract had been won to build dental health units for District Health Boards.
The expectations were that the contract was large enough to generate reasonable good profits. This is a multi year contract. Unfortunately I do not remember that any profit forecast was given for this contract so I am not able to quantify the value of this contract.

bull....
14-01-2010, 09:33 AM
Vistor arrivals for Dec are released 11 feb 2010 should be a good number.

Chart wise we have breached the lows froms 2002 and 2003 which is good for a continuing of the bullish trend towards our targets of 1.32 - 1.50.
Also of note the Leisure and Tourism Index is close to breaking out above 1400 which should encourage more buyers into these stocks.

Doyle
14-01-2010, 09:41 AM
Vistor arrivals for Dec are released 11 feb 2010 should be a good number.

Chart wise we have breached the lows froms 2002 and 2003 which is good for a continuing of the bullish trend towards our targets of 1.32 - 1.50.
Also of note the Leisure and Tourism Index is close to breaking out above 1400 which should encourage more buyers into these stocks.

Leisure and Tourism Index, didn't even know such a thing existed. Learn something new every day,

Doyle
14-01-2010, 09:53 AM
Almost as if a result of your post BULL, the rally seems to have started a second leg this morning, tentative at this stage but might challenge $1 before the week is out.

bull....
14-01-2010, 10:20 AM
As you mentioned Doyle the rugby world cup will help THL , infact I think it should be a cash bonaza.
I Know its a long way off but ya know the early bird catches the worm as they say.

Doyle
15-01-2010, 09:31 AM
And the $1 mark is hit, not sure if it will hold it for the close, but given the strength this week would be foolish to rule it out. Wonder if the NZX is contemplating another please explain letter?

bull....
15-01-2010, 10:08 AM
Looking to go to the New Zealand Rugby World Cup in 2011? You better book soon, as supply is becoming scarce, according the Rohan Marx, General Manager of iMall Motorhomes:




“You need to book a Motorhome for the 2011 Rugby World Cup now or you run the risk of missing out” warns Rohan Marx, General Manager of Motorhome Rentals at iMall Motorhomes. “As ridiculous as it sounds we already have one fleet of nearly 600 Motorhomes of all shapes and sizes completely booked out and several smaller fleets quickly nearing 100% Occupancy for the Rugby World Cup”.


The schedule for the 2011 Rugby World Cup in New Zealand is as follows:


•September 9th – October 2nd 2011 Pool Games
•October 8th – 23rd 2011 Quarter Finals and Finals

Pool games and Quarter finals are played in major centres in both the North and South island of New Zealand with the Semi finals and the final all being played in Auckland.




Marx continues:





“The even spread of locations hosting games and the scarcity of flights, hotels, and motels to, from and in many of these centres makes Motorhoming the perfect way to travel to and from games as well as see New Zealand along the way. Even though we have well over 4000 dedicated rental Motorhomes in New Zealand the Rugby World Cup will see a huge influx of overseas visitors from Rugby playing nations and many of these also happen to be strong Motorhoming Nationalities .




Larger 4 and 6 Berth vehicles will sell out first, so if you are travelling with 3 or more people you really do need to get in and book this side of Christmas 2009. The smaller 2 -3 berth vehicles or 2 Berths with Showers and toilets will sell out also but probably not until the middle or end of 2010. If you are thinking of booking a vehicle for the Rugby World Cup a couple or possibly even 6 months out from the Rugby World Cup – think again. The closest you’ll get is a car and a tent.



You don’t have to put 100% payment down on Campervans in New Zealand until much nearer the pick up date. So if you are worried about the New Zealand dollar being high at the moment and are waiting for it to possibly fall against the Euro or GBP this is not a valid strategy. The important thing is to book and secure a vehicle first. Most companies will require a deposit but the bulk of the rental won’t need to be paid until 3 – 6 months before the tournament. (start to middle of 2011) . Do not think that you will secure a cheap flight first before trying to secure a Motorhome or Campervan. It’s unlikely flights will fluctuate too much around the Rugby World Cup dates and even if they do this won’t be until very close to the actual dates of the tournament and all vehicles will be well and truly booked by then. This is a common mistake Motorhome renters are making with normal Summer periods so the Rugby World Cup will be even worse in terms of vehicle availability."


The asking rates on vehicles for the Rugby World Cup will also increase as the event approached and availability becomes scarce. Now is the best time book - check out Rugby World Cup

winner69
15-01-2010, 12:11 PM
And the $1 mark is hit, not sure if it will hold it for the close, but given the strength this week would be foolish to rule it out. Wonder if the NZX is contemplating another please explain letter?


Doyle - of course it will continue to rise ... just look at the pathetic volumes .... and seems plenty of keen buyers who prob want more than (readily) available

Probably go to 140 over the next month or 2 I reckon as some of those earlier charts showed a few pages back .... in particular the price:sales ratio one

Don't have much confidence in the company performance but heck if punters want to let the share price go highwe why not stay on for the ride.

winner69
15-01-2010, 12:14 PM
A while ago somebody who obviously knew about how THL work pointed out that the more use the campervans get the less money THL made .... something to do with how they account for deprwciation or something

Was counterintuitive but when explained made some sense

Maybe someone else can remember

J R Ewing
15-01-2010, 12:30 PM
As you mentioned Doyle the rugby world cup will help THL , infact I think it should be a cash bonaza.
I Know its a long way off but ya know the early bird catches the worm as they say.

I suspect this price rise has more to do with the current NZ tourism season than RWC. Tourism is pretty buoyant just now, especially when you compare it with everyone's gloomy predictions a few months ago. In rental cars, there seems to be less of an oversupply, and so yeilds have improved. If the same goes for campervans, THL should be having a good season.

bull....
15-01-2010, 12:48 PM
JR tourism is probably strong at the moment and im sure THL must be benefiting from this , as stated earlier i think they have under est the pick up since their last report at the annual meeting hence there projections are probably on the low side going forward.
Also stated aim to start repaying dividends later this year and the potentially huge returns from the RWC make THL very cheap now if you take a 2 year view , that is why i say the early bird is buying cheap now for what they will receive in way of capital gain + divs in 2011.
The only thing I worry about is mangemnt not living up to the potential and as others have stated this has been a concern over the years.
Maybe this new fellow at the helm will surprise us all ?

Dusty
17-01-2010, 03:22 AM
THL up again, straight through 60 resistence level when NZX down. Bought into THL with a longer term view in mind targeting 2011 increased tourism numbers especially in my opinion the Chinese along with the Rugby world cup, very few fans are going to Cross the world and not tack a holiday onto their world cup plans, chart showing strength but now I think there could be several chances to trade this company profitably between now and then.
Share rise has been supported by decent volume however majority are small parcels going through, 1000/2000/3500?

First bought THL back around August for 49c based on many points you have raised bull...
Tourism numbers, RWC, capital gains and div reinstatement, NTA.
What drew me to THL in the first place was attempting to take a contrarion view and find stocks that have somewhat lagged the rally thus far and THL fit the bill perfectly. I picked THL in the NZ comp this year with 70c entry I think and tried to base my other predictions using this method as well.
Not thinking about taking any money of the table yet either with 2010 going to be a big year for them.

Phaedrus
17-01-2010, 08:39 AM
Focus on the cashflow ... ;)Nah - focus on the TREND!

Phaedrus
17-01-2010, 08:40 AM
As a long-term "buy and hold" THL has been a disaster. Overall it has gone nowhere in decades, but over this time there have been uptrends (and downtrends!) that lasted for years. "Active investors" using the simplest TA have made handsome profits on this stock. The crudest, bluntest instrument in the TA toolbox is a 200 day Moving Average. (Blue line on chart). Even this got you into the major uptrends, locking profits in before you gave too much back to the market, while keeping you out of major downtrends. As you would expect, more responsive indicators such as trendlines, oscillators, volume indicators etc give better results.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/THL117a.gif

Here is a 3 year chart detailing more recent activity. The recent trendline break gave an entry at 47 cents. Prices stayed at around this level for quite a while, giving multiple entry opportunities - an important factor for relatively lightly traded stocks such as this.

THL is currently in a good steady uptrend, with a confirmed trendline in place. Historically, breaks of such trendlines have given profitable and timely exit signals for this stock. An 85 day simple moving average is another source of buy/sell signals, though of course there are many other suitable indicators available.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/THL117b.gif

winner69
18-01-2010, 07:25 AM
Focus on the cashflow ... ;)

Obviously expecting cash flows to improve eh Belg

But in THL's case strong cash flows do not always translate into a strong shareprice .... therefore like Phaedrus feel it better to let the market do the talking

You never know if the cash flows over the next few years are strong snd the market gets excited we should see a shareprice of 250 or something

As you keep reminding us it is the ebbs and flows of market valuations ... esp from going from undervalued by the market to being overvalued by the market .... where the real money is to be made (what a lot of words to say buy cheap sell high eh)

THL was 'cheap' when its price:sales ratio got down to .25 ..... normally if doing OK a fair valuation is at least 1 .... so that was the time to get interested

Belg, but as a true contrarian shouldn't you be selling at the moment .... THL is in demand and the bugger is to get a decent chunk you have to pay over the odds on the day

winner69
18-01-2010, 09:31 AM
As a long-term "buy and hold" THL has been a disaster. .........

Here is a 3 year chart detailing more recent activity. The recent trendline break gave an entry at 47 cents. Prices stayed at around this level for quite a while, giving multiple entry opportunities - an important factor for relatively lightly traded stocks such as this.

THL is currently in a good steady uptrend, with a confirmed trendline in place. Historically, breaks of such trendlines have given profitable and timely exit signals for this stock. An 85 day simple moving average is another source of buy/sell signals, though of course there are many other suitable indicators available.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/THL117b.gif

Phaedrus ... great charts as usual

For this latest uptrend I am using a calculated ATR as the guide when to get out

Currently this at 3 times is 91 cents so a bit of leeway from todays price ... back to 91 cents and out she goes as we lock in profits (discipline eh). The ATR has been support for the total rise from 40 cents odd so it gives me some comfort

Let market sentiment rule ......... maybe 250 this time next year

J R Ewing
18-01-2010, 12:57 PM
JR tourism is probably strong at the moment and im sure THL must be benefiting from this , as stated earlier i think they have under est the pick up since their last report at the annual meeting hence there projections are probably on the low side going forward.
Also stated aim to start repaying dividends later this year and the potentially huge returns from the RWC make THL very cheap now if you take a 2 year view , that is why i say the early bird is buying cheap now for what they will receive in way of capital gain + divs in 2011.
The only thing I worry about is mangemnt not living up to the potential and as others have stated this has been a concern over the years.
Maybe this new fellow at the helm will surprise us all ?

I would look for some positive forecasts for this tourism season when they announce results to 31 December on 24th February. You could reasonably expect both yeilds and forward bookings to be tracking well ahead of forecast.

In all probability RWC year will be a vintage year for THL. But at the end of the cup final the shareholders will need to be able to look forward to economic returns from their assets over the core summer tourism seasons if the shareprice is going to justify $2.50 or so.

winner69
19-01-2010, 12:32 PM
Stuff all market activity with THL .... at these volumes obvious that not even Belg is selling

winner69
20-01-2010, 03:40 PM
Webster playing it safe ... from the NBR


Tourism Holdings chief executive Grant Webster said it was one of the key issues for the industry. “We need quite a bit of demand to come back before profitability comes back, but it will happen quite quickly once that demand returns.”

The company fell into a “in line with expectations” category for business performance in the last three months.

“It was in line with what we forecast to the market last year in our annual result.

“The outlook is still more positive today than it was six months ago – there’s no doubt about that. But it’s still quite a difficult time to say what will happen.”

He said THL would be able to provide a much better update next month, when it released its half year results.

shambles
20-01-2010, 04:01 PM
Not a very good close today!! Down 6 points... ouch

bull....
20-01-2010, 04:11 PM
Was overbrought so a pullback was expected , cant go vertical every day a.
That webster fellows comments raise some eyebrows though or is it warning bells?

shambles
20-01-2010, 04:24 PM
It may be warning bells. I don't think it's the beep of tourists reversing their campers into the holiday parks...

winner69
20-01-2010, 06:21 PM
Was overbrought so a pullback was expected , cant go vertical every day a.
That webster fellows comments raise some eyebrows though or is it warning bells?


Is what happens in a lightly traded stock when somebody wants or needs to sell .... it was those 30,000 shares at days end that stuffed the price

All OK unless he has another 30,000 or 50,000 or 100,000 to sell then we are in trouble

My ATR sell point is currently 93 ... with THL (because of the inherent risks involved) discipline must prevail so maybe i won't be a shareholder this time tomorrow ..... but hopefully today was an abheration and THL is still on the way up to 250

winner69
20-01-2010, 06:23 PM
Was overbrought so a pullback was expected , cant go vertical every day a.
That webster fellows comments raise some eyebrows though or is it warning bells?

The main point of the article was that increased activity does not always lead to a comensurate increase in profitability

Dusty
22-01-2010, 01:21 AM
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/3250579/Key-gives-tourism-5m-marketing-boost

Doyle
25-01-2010, 09:36 AM
Is what happens in a lightly traded stock when somebody wants or needs to sell .... it was those 30,000 shares at days end that stuffed the price

All OK unless he has another 30,000 or 50,000 or 100,000 to sell then we are in trouble

My ATR sell point is currently 93 ... with THL (because of the inherent risks involved) discipline must prevail so maybe i won't be a shareholder this time tomorrow ..... but hopefully today was an abheration and THL is still on the way up to 250

Keep that discipline winner? Could barely sleep last night, wondering what will happen on the market this week. Was 100% invested on friday, but have already started selling down this morning. Probably A bit silly of me but then fear is a funny thing.

bull....
28-01-2010, 03:15 PM
Thl no longer overbrought now volumes picking up around a fib level at 94 , a move back thr 98 will take us to new highs in the uptrend.

shambles
28-01-2010, 03:59 PM
Thanks Bull

bull....
03-02-2010, 04:27 PM
tourism figures next week followed by results the following week busy period for thl.

Snoopy
04-02-2010, 02:40 PM
Over the last week I have relocated a THL campervan from Christchurch to Auckland so have gained some first hand consumer knowledge of this business I thought shareholders might be interested in.

<snip>

My overall impression of THL was of not enough staff, poorly trained. If you ask me whether I would hire a van from them at normal price ( I was quoted $155 per day ), then I probably wouldn't. But would I relocate a van for them again? Probably yes, but I would allow more time between connections. knowing how THL operate!

SNOOPY



I came back from the North Island this week after another 'extended weekend' away with THL from their Auckland base. So yes I did go back to THL, although I didn't hire a campervan. Being peak season, the minimum time that I was allowed to hire a campervan for was ten days. I guess there is enough demand over the peak tourist seaon for THL to write such restrictions into the contract. Other campervan companies do similar things. However paying for a ten day campervan hire does make for an extravagant four day weekend. So I struck on a compromise. An 'Explore' rental car from THL combined with an 'Explore' rental tent! I don't do that much camping but as it never rains in the Auckland district ;-), this did seem a good compromise. I do own a tent, but what with all of the excess baggage piece surcharges at airlines these days I decided it was worth paying the $20 per day charge to THL for the rental tent, instead of handing more than that money over to Jetstar as an excess luggage allowance.

This time I checked the timing in advance using the THL helpline. My plane arrived at 4:25pm and I was expected inside at the THL desk in Auckland by 5pm. Tightish, but I reckoned I could pick up my bag and make the 3km journey even if I missed the complimentary THL shuttle bus and had to take a taxi.

The person on the THL helpline was very pleasant, but seemed very concerned that I hadn't allowed myself enough time to 'clear customs'. Now I know there has been a traditional north/south rivalry for many years. But I wasn't aware this rivalry had degenerated into being forced through customs posts when island hopping between Christchurch and Auckland on a domestic flight! As it turned out, to my great relief, Auckland Airport hadn't heard of this development either. I was also given wrong information about the Shuttle departure time. I was told 'quarter to' and 'quarter past' the hour, where as the real times were on there hour and the half hour. As a result I did miss the shuttle, even though the shuttle driver had been sent out to diligently look for me!

My timing did end up being very tight, but not through any fault of THL. It took more than half an hour between when my Jetstar flight landed and when the baggage was stuck on the carousel. And I am not just talking about my luggage: half the plane had to wait that long. I have no idea what happened, but I have never seen the baggage collection process so slow, and that includes from international flights and much larger planes. I don't know whether to blame Jetstar or AIA for that, but AIA I think must share some of the blame for what happened next.

Having 'missed' (sic) my shuttle, I went to the taxi rank. I was told that the 3.5km trip to THL was subject to a $30 minimum charge! Even a cabby in a traffic jam in London would not charge those rates. I can see the cabby's perspective of sitting on the rank for an hour and only getting a short trip. Perhaps AIA should set up a special short haul taxi rank? I understand that getting a cab to any hotel in the immediate vicinity of Auckland Airport would have cost the same. It seems a sure way to give overseas visitors a sour taste of NZ service as soon as they get off the plane if nothing is done. The rejected cab driver then waved me in the direction of a shuttle who tried to charge me $15 for the same trip, before we eventually settled on $10. One thing I can say about these transportation arguments is that by the time the negotiations were over, my luggage had at last arrived off the plane. And that saved me from going back and picking it up later.

It was around ten past five when I eventually got to the fortunately still open office of THL. With no video to study and, joy of joys, a car handbook in the glovebox, this time I was able to make an efficent exit. My tent 'hamper' exceeded all expectations: A huge chilli bin of pots pans, plates jugs and utensils. Exactly the same big box as is supplied to the campervan customers I think. I also got a decent sleeping bag and a duvet that I could use as a ground mattress (being summer and all). But the tent itself, oh dear!

No instructions, no guy ropes and a distinct shortage of tent pegs and no hammer! I was given a beehive type tent with two carbon rod arch frames, but no end pieces. Fortunately I had the foresight to bring my own hammer, and I was able to bash the carbon rod ends directly into the ground. I used what tent pegs I had to create a floppy structure that was enough to shelter from the elements for the night. If a storm had brewed up I think my tent would have collapsed though! I am fairly sure I was the joke of the campground. Although given what I had to work with I thought I had come up with something that 'Mcgyver' would have been proud of. Fortunately my travel plan had me returning to the airport briefly the next day. There I was able to pick up some of the missing tent pieces. But imagine if I had been a tourist setting off on a grand tour of the North Island. My THL camping experience would have been a disaster!

In summary my second THL 'consumer experience' found nothing wrong with the staff I encountered on the ground. But there were a couple of 'system failures' in there which must be cause for concern. I hope for the sake of shareholders THL can get themselves sorted out before World Cup year. And I think that Auckland Airport have a few systems issues of their own to sort out as well.

SNOOPY

discl: no shares held in either THL or AIA

shambles
04-02-2010, 04:43 PM
Visitor numbers up in December..

http://www.nbr.co.nz/node/117979

CC Team
12-02-2010, 08:49 AM
Hi Snoopy, Marie at the Customer Care team here. Once again thank you for your feedback. We have taken on board your comments and will review with the teams concerned. If you would like to contact us directly we would love to hear from you. Thanks again. MT

bull....
19-02-2010, 09:07 AM
Profit announcement next week.

bull....
22-02-2010, 09:25 AM
Heres a summary of the latest Tourism Industry Monitor


Summary of Results

In the past 3 months (Nov-Jan) industry demand has increased by 2.8% (compared with the same period last
year) while profitability has increased by 1.7%. In the next 3 months (Feb-Apr) industry demand is expected to
increase by 1.4% and profitability is expected to increase by 2.1%.
47% of respondents expect demand to improve in the next 3 months compared with the same period last year.
This is down slightly from 48% last month and 52% the month before.
33% of respondents expect demand to fall in the next 3 months compared with the same period last year.
This represents a small increase from 29% the previous month.
The short-term outlook for demand is relatively neutral for most regions when compared against the same
period last year.
Business confidence levels are down slightly but the number of optimists within the tourism industry continues
to comfortably outweigh the number of pessimists.

to read the full report - http://www.tourismresearch.govt.nz/Documents/Tourism%20Industry%20Monitor/2010/TIM02-10.pdf

bull....
24-02-2010, 08:08 AM
Outstanding result and the early return to divs is a big plus.

Anna Naum
03-03-2010, 07:44 PM
THL - Approach to Shareholders

TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED
APPROACH TO SHAREHOLDERS

THL has become aware of an unsolicited proposal by a person in Australia to some THL shareholders. This seeks an option to acquire THL shares.

Neither THL management nor the Board has received any meaningful information about the proposal. In particular, there is no information as to the substance of the person making the proposal, the number of shares in respect of which options are sought, or what steps if any are intended to be taken to comply with the Takeovers Code or the Overseas Investment Act (if they apply).

If a formal notice is received that complies with the Takeovers Code, the Board would review it and make a recommendation to shareholders.

In the meantime shareholders should seek their own financial advice and the THL Board recommends that THL shareholders ignore this approach.

Announcement authorised by:
Chairman
Tourism Holdings Limited

bull....
06-03-2010, 01:54 AM
A cheeky offer 1c options at strike 1.05 , not sure if an financial arrangement comes under the takeovers act unless exercised?

J R Ewing
08-03-2010, 10:20 AM
A cheeky offer 1c options at strike 1.05 , not sure if an financial arrangement comes under the takeovers act unless exercised?

Cheeky is not the word for it! 1c when only 6c away from the $1.05 strike price! What is the proposed conversion date for the options?

bull....
09-03-2010, 11:03 AM
think the date was mid april

J R Ewing
10-03-2010, 08:43 AM
I wonder if that's based on a serious intention to buy a substantial holding (or knowledge of someone else's intention). Or maybe they are just seeing if they can make a quick profit if the shares continue to rise over the next few weeks.

Silverlight
10-03-2010, 11:50 AM
With the plummeting NZD vs AUD, this will create a two fold effect. Increase in aussie tourists, so potential increase in revenue, and a cheaper company in AUD to launch a takeover.

2007 takeover was at $2.80 when AUDNZD was 1.10, so 2.54 AUD or market cap of 250m AUD

Share price now $1.00 with currency at 1.30, so 0.77 AUD or market cap of 75m AUD.

J R Ewing
11-03-2010, 07:53 AM
A high Aussie dollar is a mixed blessing for NZ tourism. While it makes a trip here cheaper, it also makes it more affordable to head further afield to competing destinations. The US must be a tempting sestination for Aussies now, the AUD is very strong against the greenback. The ideal from an NZ perspective is when the AUD is weak (making long haul travel too expensive) and the NZD weaker (allowing NZ to compete favorably with domestic destinations).

Also for THL Australian tourism is important, and that won't be being helped by a high AUD.

I suppose a takeover must always be a possibility when the company is trading below the value of assets.

bull....
15-04-2010, 08:32 AM
Presently consolidating under $1 , a break of 1 and we will go to new highs

ENP
21-05-2010, 10:02 AM
How many people are going to look into speculating with trading THL with the Rugby World Cup next year?

J R Ewing
21-05-2010, 12:11 PM
Visitor numbers were down in April, and I suspect they will be down again in May. Last May we got a lot of Australian visitors, perhaps due to their government handout.

Also, what effect might the changes to business depreciation have on THL? A lot of existing fleet will already be at minimal value on the books, but slower depreciation will make it less attractive to replace fleet.

bull....
21-05-2010, 03:01 PM
im still in for rwc but small position which ill top up from time to time , unless world has gfc2 i believe thl will have bumper 2011 - 12 yr .
maybe john appointment will help with manufactering side of there business?

J R Ewing
31-05-2010, 07:57 AM
Tourism slump fallout yet to hit
By Owen Hembry 4:00 AM Monday May 31, 2010 Facebook
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Print


Australia's healthy visitor growth has counterbalanced some rather sick major markets. Global recession has sped up changes in the tourism industry but some effects may not be felt fully for years, say industry leaders.

Tourism Holdings chief executive Grant Webster said companies across the industry had pulled back on capital investment and paid down debt.

"They actually used that cash flow to stay afloat and it's going to take them some time to actually get back into a position where that capital investment is going to catch up," Webster said.

"So we won't see that effect in the industry for a couple of years to come because the product's okay, you can defer things, you think of a campervan or a hotel room you're not going to notice in one year that it's one year older," he said.

"But in two or three years time when that sort of mounts up is where there's a longer-term issue for the industry."

Tourism Holdings, whose businesses included Waitomo Glowworm Caves and hiring campervans, had reduced some of its fleet, paid down debt and for the six months ending December 31 posted its strongest operating cashflow in years, Webster said.

Tourism Holdings was now catching up and re-investing heavily, he said.

Tourism Industry Association chief executive Tim Cossar said it felt like the impact of recession was behind the industry.

Silverlight
23-08-2010, 04:37 PM
From Half year:

Assets 280m
Intangibles 46m
Liabilities 97m

NTA $1.41.

With share price currently 76 cents and results due out this Thursday this could provide a good entry opportunity.

J R Ewing
24-08-2010, 08:36 AM
From Half year:

Assets 280m
Intangibles 46m
Liabilities 97m

NTA $1.41.

With share price currently 76 cents and results due out this Thursday this could provide a good entry opportunity.

The issue is getting an economic return on those assets. I drove past the THL head office in Beach Rd today, the blackboard advertises Campervans from $16/day.

minimoke
25-08-2010, 01:25 PM
Big trade went thru. To whom? Sellers disappearing. Why? Whats up?
??? 15 trades so far today spread over $86k and 111,11 shares. Biggest trade 32,000 shares - nothing there as far as I can see

Zito
25-08-2010, 01:36 PM
FLLYR results due out at 9am tomorrow morning will have something to do with it.

flyingfox
25-08-2010, 03:13 PM
Big trade went thru. To whom? Sellers disappearing. Why? Whats up?

It's been not many sellers for quite a while, but price has no big change. I think THL should not be this cheap.

minimoke
25-08-2010, 03:52 PM
What was the 2 million that went thru a week or so ago? Did I miss something?
That was a few days ago at $0.76. Today now 218,000 sold, buying at $0.79

bull....
26-08-2010, 08:49 AM
Nice result , Aus in particular seems to stand out.
On the charts showed a nice bottoming around low mid 70c range , hence the increased volume that entered the market once support around here became evident.
Longer term trends probably depend on macro issues still but im still holding and accumulating for big 2012 payday caveat still no gfc2

winner69
26-08-2010, 09:01 AM
The issue is getting an economic return on those assets. I drove past the THL head office in Beach Rd today, the blackboard advertises Campervans from $16/day.

So all those assets and $5m profit at the end of the day

Silverlight
26-08-2010, 09:15 AM
With share price currently 76 cents and results due out this Thursday this could provide a good entry opportunity.

Full Year

Assets 268m (down 4%)
Intangibles 44m (down 4%)
Liabilities 86m (down 11%)

NTA $1.40

Revenue up, profit up, 2 cent dividend good time to add some more.

flyingfox
26-08-2010, 02:35 PM
Is NZX not update the price on reporting day?

winner69
08-09-2010, 07:26 PM
The issue is getting an economic return on those assets. I drove past the THL head office in Beach Rd today, the blackboard advertises Campervans from $16/day.

I seem to have a morbid fascination with THL as something makes me keep them on the watchlist ..... years ago made heaps on them so maybe looking at another opportunity .... maybe, just maybe, they might actually make some reasonable money to boost the shareprice.

Current shareprice does look cheap ... like less than 50% of both book value and sales

However the problem is what you say JR ... making an economic return on capital employed.

Even last years 'great' result is a disaster really. EBIT of $10m and then allowing for tax they made an operating profit of $7m .... but **** oh day it needed $230m of invested capital (debt plus equity) to make that $7m

Say their cost of capital is 10% which would result in a capital chage of $23 and you come up with a figure of a $15m economic loss .... value destroyed in other words

Soem analysts use a thing called MVA to value a company ..... MVA being the difference between the company's equity and its market cap .... if a company is generating real wealth the MVA is the NPV of that real wealth (returns in excess of its cost of capital)

THL equity is $180m odd and its market cap is $80m .... so the forward looking market is saying that THL will destroy $100m of shareholder in the future .... sound horrendous eh .... but based on a $15m economic loss in 2010 extarpolated into the future that $100m sounds about right

As JR says they cant seem to make any real economic return on all those assets employed .... and that has been a problem for many years .... reality is that today the company is probably only worth $80m

Based on the current capital employed THL really needs to make $33m plus EBIT to cover their cost of capital ... thats $23m more than they made this year

Take it off your watchlist winner I keep telling myself .... but that morbid fascination won't let me stop keeping my model of THL performance being updated .... it really is a fascinating study of shareholder wealth destruction over many years

Betcha shareholders who stayed with the ship are cursing they didn't accept the $2.80 those cowboys offerred a few years ago to put this dog out of its misery once and for .... no wonder they went broke ....... but then again good money was made by some anyway when the bid failed.

maybe, just maybe some money to be made sometime but sentiment doesn't seem to have improved

Sauce
08-09-2010, 08:22 PM
I really enjoyed this post Winner. Perfectly rational! The quick and dirty way to come to the same conclusion (that they are destroying wealth) is simply to look at the average ROE over last 9 years..


maybe, just maybe some money to be made sometime but sentiment doesn't seem to have improved

Don't hold your breath!!

Regards,

Sauce

scamper
04-10-2010, 06:01 PM
is it possible that this company's awful days are a-changing?
both the 3-year and 6-month downtrends are broken
30-day ma has crossed up through the 60-day ma.
bollies diverging on the uptrend
rsi sharply up.
TA starting to suggest potential...

bull....
05-10-2010, 08:40 AM
Looking good technically it has maintained the uptrend from its lows and the the recent correction bottomed around mid low 70c range where some decent buying has been evident. Also the big seller looks like they have finished rsi a little high may see a slight breather but thl entering their busy period so lets hope those tourist numbers keep getting better and thl can improve that return on capital , ive got some spare time soon so il post some indepth analysis on thl for anyone interested.

Silverlight
19-10-2010, 09:55 AM
Nice drop, I will be bidding at 0.73 in case it gets that low.

bull....
19-10-2010, 10:28 AM
I was lucky enough to sell my trading quota last week but still hold my long term lot so like others will look to re enter on extreme weakness.
As mentioned on another post watch those macro issues on this share.

bull....
19-10-2010, 02:51 PM
Given the primary reason for the profit downgrade is down to the strength of AUD and NZD ... I had a quick skim over other NZX stocks that would be affected. Makes for troubling analysis ...

Currencies are very volatile and I guess so are consumer holiday patterns so does this make THL a traders dream now.

scamper
22-10-2010, 11:30 AM
is it possible that this company's awful days are a-changing?
both the 3-year and 6-month downtrends are broken
30-day ma has crossed up through the 60-day ma.
bollies diverging on the uptrend
rsi sharply up.
TA starting to suggest potential...

Yeah, well, fundamentals trump TA every time.
Besides, if scamper had truly considered the five-year chart, the recent slump would just be same-old same-old.
the one-year chart did look promising in early october though
hope everyone here did better research than i did.
however, i didn't buy, but did hold. paws crossed!

macduffy
23-10-2010, 08:57 AM
Yes, THL has never found a place in my long term portfolio largely for that reason - and the capital-intensive nature of the business.

But should be good for a trade again at some stage as Rugby World Cup fever starts to take hold and the media starts talking about the (short term) boost to NZ tourism!

winner69
25-10-2010, 03:37 PM
...........but thl entering their busy period so lets hope those tourist numbers keep getting better and thl can improve that return on capital , ive got some spare time soon so il post some indepth analysis on thl for anyone interested.

Always interested in your analysis bull .... esp if you have changed your views in the last week

THL seems to defy fundamental analysis .... in bad times they loss money and in good times they also stuff up .... something inherently wrong with their business model I fear

A few years ago I found that their profits were negatively correlated with tourist numbers .... increasing tourist numbers and THL made less and so on. Haven't keep that chart up to date but might update it some some time to see whether the picture has changed

Now what did those rogue Aussies think THL was worth a few years ago ..... shareholders should have taken it up and been put out of their misery

bull....
26-10-2010, 06:58 AM
Hi Winner ,no spare time yet.
Im still in for RWC year 2011 - 2012 with a long term holding and ill trade the stock as well. ( Time will tell if it is an earnings outlier year ).
A smart person would have made that last announcement a worst case outcome so no more downgrade a forth coming .. time will tell ,
Like you mention about their model it probably not broken just needs to be tweaked for the new environment , I would like to see less reliance on soley campervans ( 1 product) for earnings and a second big earnings stream built ( waitomo cave type attractions in NZ ? , Bus tours ? ) more added value in these things.
If capital spend is reduced for a year theirs a lot of spare cash to use for aquisitions to expand the earnings stream.

bull....
28-10-2010, 06:59 AM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10683536

This is why I would like to see THL develop that second revenue stream , transform itself into the dominant tourism company in NZ.

bull....
01-11-2010, 09:43 AM
3006
testing picture

bull....
01-11-2010, 09:47 AM
Ive played around for ages trying to post tables in here with no luck so posted a picture of the tables so hope you can see it , anyway I did some analysis and
As can be seen from the total table the return has been heading south since 2005 high of 11% down to our current 4% as at 2010 even though more money has been invested in the business and turnover has increased. As some posters are aware the company seems to be losing money each year for shareholders on the funds they have invested.
Whets happened over this period – Well 2005 / 2006 didn’t look to bad to me but things started to change in 2007 when they undertook a major strategy review and created 4 separate operating divisions these were Rentals, Tourism Leisure Group which incorporated Attractions and Coaches, Ex Group to focus on the youth market and Ci Munro for Manufacturing. This may have been a good strategy except for the fact In 2008 the world went south and so did this strategy with the group selling off the bulk of the attractions and the coach businesses, as the tables show selling of these businesses made little difference to our return on capital benchmark anyway. In fact it was probably the right strategy for the time as they would probably had to borrow money to upgrade the attraction businesses etc this increasing debt at a time of uncertain revenue instead they used the money to repay debt .
2009 was a year off consolidation and currently the business seems to have stabilised and they intend to focus on Rental side off the business to achieve the return on capital.
How are they going to achieve this when every year on trend shows a decline?
Well looking at our tables makes you wonder since the rentals is the core business and even though turnover and funds deployed have both increased our EBIT is being punished of late and this is the big factor in the Return on Funds figure being so low. A quick figure suggests the rentals side of the business need to produce 20mil more on ebit on current funds employed to get back to trend on the overall total return on funds.
A quick look at the Income Statement shows Cost of Sales has ballooned so I guess the answer lies in their somewhere as to why Rentals are being punished and our Return on Funds.
Got to run very busy week as far as markets go so need to do my homework ill post some more soon on what I think , if others have ideas please share theirs an annual general meeting coming up.

Sauce
01-11-2010, 09:27 PM
Hi Bull

I thoroughly enjoyed reading your analysis of THL.

My thoughts are this; Why not look for a business with better economics?

If you believe THL returns are stable, and assuming they don't decide (or need) to retain more profits in the future, then a price to book of about 0.35 - 0.38 seems about right - at this price point (about 65-70cps) the returns might arguably be worthwhile considering the risks - but with basically no margin of safety whatsoever.

I couldn't help but chuckle at the following comments from the chairman in the annual report

I am pleased to report that thl’s balance sheet remains strong, with
net debt levels down from $58m to $37m at year-end, providing an
equity ratio of 62% and a debt-to-debt-plus-equity ratio of 21%. It
is also a competitive advantage that differentiates thl from other
operators and thus stands the company in good stead.
Throughout poor economic cycles thl has proven that the business
model can adapt and provide security to shareholders through
effective capital management.

I wonder if the chairman has been smoking something usually passed around in THL's camper vans :0

Just kidding (sort of!).. but I do think there are businesses with better economics providing much more obvious value on NZX right now. As an exercise it's been fun to take a look at THL, and to read your post and analysis Bull. Thanks for posting it here.

I would love to know if, and where, you see value in owning THL.

Regards,

Sauce

bull....
02-11-2010, 01:27 AM
Hi Bull

I thoroughly enjoyed reading your analysis of THL.

My thoughts are this; Why not look for a business with better economics?

If you believe THL returns are stable, and assuming they don't decide (or need) to retain more profits in the future, then a price to book of about 0.35 - 0.38 seems about right - at this price point (about 65-70cps) the returns might arguably be worthwhile considering the risks - but with basically no margin of safety whatsoever.

I couldn't help but chuckle at the following comments from the chairman in the annual report

I am pleased to report that thl’s balance sheet remains strong, with
net debt levels down from $58m to $37m at year-end, providing an
equity ratio of 62% and a debt-to-debt-plus-equity ratio of 21%. It
is also a competitive advantage that differentiates thl from other
operators and thus stands the company in good stead.
Throughout poor economic cycles thl has proven that the business
model can adapt and provide security to shareholders through
effective capital management.

I wonder if the chairman has been smoking something usually passed around in THL's camper vans :0

Just kidding (sort of!).. but I do think there are businesses with better economics providing much more obvious value on NZX right now. As an exercise it's been fun to take a look at THL, and to read your post and analysis Bull. Thanks for posting it here.

I would love to know if, and where, you see value in owning THL.

Regards,

Sauce

Hi Sauce
Your not alone in wondering why anyone would wont to invest in THL , I hope after ive posted more of analysis aand reasoning your see where I am coming from and not consider me totally mad.

Gonzo
02-11-2010, 01:59 AM
I had some of these a few years ago but I drive up and down the Invercargill - Bluff road a bit & when I saw all the old 2nd hand ex Britz and Maui vans rebranded as Kea etc etc, I decided there is no economic 'moat' around this co. and gave it away

bull....
02-11-2010, 02:23 AM
Hi Gonzo,
You bring up a very valid point about those old 2nd hand vans because I was thinking it may be contributing to the high repairs and maintenance bill they have

Sauce
02-11-2010, 09:51 AM
Hi Sauce
Your not alone in wondering why anyone would wont to invest in THL , I hope after ive posted more of analysis aand reasoning your see where I am coming from and not consider me totally mad.

I am really looking forward to it Bull! A fun excercise indeed...
Cheers
Sauce

Sauce
02-11-2010, 09:53 AM
Hi Gonzo,
You bring up a very valid point about those old 2nd hand vans because I was thinking it may be contributing to the high repairs and maintenance bill they have

Presumably maintenance capital requirements are always going to be high for a campervan business.

h2so4
02-11-2010, 10:31 AM
I am really looking forward to it Bull! A fun excercise indeed...
Cheers
Sauce

Interesting if you look at owner earnings and convert it to a cash yield you get something like a 20% return, but there is probably a good/not so good reason for that. :)

bull....
02-11-2010, 12:52 PM
Now that THL are in defensive mode and not offence an important question to ask is what is their plan regarding this very important market

3009

Tradionally their bread and butter has come from europe poms in particular who enjoyed long stays and liked campervan travel infact most european nationals enjoy campervan travel , but what about our mate from asia , ive got the stereo type fit that they enjoy travel by bus and stay in hotels , motels?
If demographic trends are changing how will THL tap this market , if they continue to rely on westerners for their bread and butter wheres my return on funds employed gonna come from?
I might have missed it but I didnt recall seeing any mention about this huge market all I see is whinging about those bloody poms.

bull....
03-11-2010, 09:56 AM
Excuse my writing if its a bit all over the pllace im a bit tired from late nights.
People want to know where the value , the strategy is to capture the discount to trend in the company’s performance what I mean by discount to trend is that it is underperforming compared to previous years the value to be obtained is the company returning to trend performance in theory leading to rerating of stock to trend.
This is not a long term investment it relies on the company implementing the correct medicine to correct the imbalance in performance.
I’m not going to go into the nuts and bolts of their financials I’m just going to present my strategy which I will hope show that sometimes when things don’t look that good there is sometimes money to be made by an investor.
Obviously the companies under pressure they have gone from offense to defence in their strategy and while some metrics are looking up their margins and sales are under pressure.
As I mentioned the strategy is looking for the company to return to trend performance in 2011 – 12 thanks to the RWC and the better margins achieved which should translate to the bottom line improvement. 2012 – 2013 I’m picking will see opportunities for rationalisation within the industry as I’m sure there’s a lot operators hanging on for the RWC , after that their businesses may not be viable so this leaves acquisitions available for companies in a strong position, also margins should improve following this consolidation in the industry.
By this time THL leverage position I would say will be below trend so they will be able to finance acquisitions.
The recent outlook update is not that surprising as I saw this year being still not that flash due to those macro factors I mention and the possible delay of travel by poms until RWC which seems to be evident.
The strategy of course relies on the company doing their part and macro issues falling into place so a lot of moving parts which could derail my plan.
Ill post later my thinking on certain parts of the company which long term investors should be concerned.:)

Sauce
03-11-2010, 10:14 AM
Excuse my writing if its a bit all over the pllace im a bit tired from late nights.
People want to know where the value , the strategy is to capture the discount to trend in the company’s performance what I mean by discount to trend is that it is underperforming compared to previous years the value to be obtained is the company returning to trend performance in theory leading to rerating of stock to trend.
This is not a long term investment it relies on the company implementing the correct medicine to correct the imbalance in performance.


Hi Bull

I figured this was the plan. If you can buy the equity returning 5-6% below half it's book value, and they can fire ROE back up to double that return without consuming new cash to do it and they continue to pay out 80% of profits, then you could do very well in the short term.

But... Its a big if! Its a horrible turn around and a business that by definition does not have any competitive advantage (historical returns at, and then trending down way below, approx cost of capital) and if you follow the margin of safety concept I simply can't see how half of book is going to provide that.

Of course it sounds like you understand the businesses and its metrics well and possibly have insights that can provide the confidence needed, I will watch with interest, and will enjoy any more analysis you can post!

Thanks again Bull

Regards,

Sauce

J R Ewing
03-11-2010, 10:50 AM
Excuse my writing if its a bit all over the pllace im a bit tired from late nights.
People want to know where the value , the strategy is to capture the discount to trend in the company’s performance what I mean by discount to trend is that it is underperforming compared to previous years the value to be obtained is the company returning to trend performance in theory leading to rerating of stock to trend.
This is not a long term investment it relies on the company implementing the correct medicine to correct the imbalance in performance.
I’m not going to go into the nuts and bolts of their financials I’m just going to present my strategy which I will hope show that sometimes when things don’t look that good there is sometimes money to be made by an investor.
Obviously the companies under pressure they have gone from offense to defence in their strategy and while some metrics are looking up their margins and sales are under pressure.
As I mentioned the strategy is looking for the company to return to trend performance in 2011 – 12 thanks to the RWC and the better margins achieved which should translate to the bottom line improvement. 2012 – 2013 I’m picking will see opportunities for rationalisation within the industry as I’m sure there’s a lot operators hanging on for the RWC , after that their businesses may not be viable so this leaves acquisitions available for companies in a strong position, also margins should improve following this consolidation in the industry.
By this time THL leverage position I would say will be below trend so they will be able to finance acquisitions.
The recent outlook update is not that surprising as I saw this year being still not that flash due to those macro factors I mention and the possible delay of travel by poms until RWC which seems to be evident.
The strategy of course relies on the company doing their part and macro issues falling into place so a lot of moving parts which could derail my plan.
Ill post later my thinking on certain parts of the company which long term investors should be concerned.:)

In my opinion "a lot of operators hanging on for RWC" overstates the case. We have just come through the GFC and no significant sized rental operators have failed to my knowledge. Yeilds are certainly under pressure, and you can make a case that the industry is overdue for consolidation. But even if your point is correct and post RWC there are competitors whose business are not viable, why would these be a good acquisition for THL? At that point they would be buying run down assets and brands of negligible value with dwindling market share. I don't think THL could wave a magic wand and turn these into profitable companies. Surely if acquisitions were considered they would need to target the stronger competitors in the market that are profitable and experiencing growth. They won't be picked up at firesale prices, so that might involve some capital raising.

Incidentally, my guess is that the poor numbers out of UK are more likely a result of their belt tightening and general economic conditions rather than RWC, but if it is RWC related we can expect the effect the summer following RWC to be even more marked.

bull....
03-11-2010, 11:58 AM
Incidentally, my guess is that the poor numbers out of UK are more likely a result of their belt tightening and general economic conditions rather than RWC, but if it is RWC related we can expect the effect the summer following RWC to be even more marked.

You are correct JR it has nothing to do with RWC just like the other side of the RWC should be business as usual.
As for consolidation I wasnt meaning to infer THL would be interested in run down operations im sure they would only look to companies which provided the economies of scale, efficiencies etc and the sales increase it would provide.

bull....
08-11-2010, 10:28 AM
A basic assumption is that generally THL have to grow sales to acheive the return on funds employed to acceptable levels , the fact they havent acheived this over the last 2 years is due to the GFC so how they going to acheive this going forward?
Well I dont believe it is going to be from traditional customer base as this is probably in long term decline now due to shift in demographic wealth patterns so unless they change their business model to incorporate this the only way I see they can grow sales is thru acquisition which seems to be the path they are intending to follow.
The problem for long term investors is that at some point growth by aquisition no longer works and you will not get your return on funds.
Personally I liked their growth model they started in 2007 but have abandoned now as this would have provided the long term returns going forward because they would have been in the position to catch the demographic trend change as well as catching the synergies and margins from controlling the supply chain in effect.

So im in for the short term and wish long term holders good luck but unfortunately I find it hard to see how their current model will deliver long term wealth to shareholders.
So I suggest if you are long term holder you need to ask some serious questions at their AGM about their long term strategy and also how they are going to grow their sales by aquisition to acheive the return on funds in the short term:p


3018

J R Ewing
08-11-2010, 11:03 AM
Growing sales isn't going to help their ROI unless they change their pricing strategy. The most recently lauched brand, Explore More, is trying to grow sales through discounts, discounts and more discounts. Take a look at the website:

"We won't be beaten on price"
"lowest price guaranteed"
and they describe themselves as "Aotearoa's dirt cheap campervan and car rental experts."

bull....
08-11-2010, 12:14 PM
Growing sales isn't going to help their ROI unless they change their pricing strategy. The most recently lauched brand, Explore More, is trying to grow sales through discounts, discounts and more discounts. Take a look at the website:

"We won't be beaten on price"
"lowest price guaranteed"
and they describe themselves as "Aotearoa's dirt cheap campervan and car rental experts."

Hi JR,

It is a sign of the competitive environment they currently operate in and as any one knows who operates in any kind of vechicle rental type business " a sale is a sale" even if the margin is crap.
By the way any additional sales they can acheive while maintaining costs will feed straight to the bottom line , a potential question to ask them is do they have idle capacity? if they do maybe they should start a grab a campervan daily deal.

Im going to the AGM so anyone want some questions asked let me know.

J R Ewing
08-11-2010, 12:47 PM
Hi JR,

It is a sign of the competitive environment they currently operate in and as any one knows who operates in any kind of vechicle rental type business " a sale is a sale" even if the margin is crap.
By the way any additional sales they can acheive while maintaining costs will feed straight to the bottom line , a potential question to ask them is do they have idle capacity? if they do maybe they should start a grab a campervan daily deal.

Hi Bull,

It is a sign of the competitive environment they currently operate in and as any one knows who operates in any kind of vechicle rental type business " a sale is a sale" even if the margin is crap.
By the way any additional sales they can acheive while maintaining costs will feed straight to the bottom line , a potential question to ask them is do they have idle capacity? if they do maybe they should start a grab a campervan daily deal.

Im going to the AGM so anyone want some questions asked let me know.

Most of the reason that they are in such a competitive environment is that they have positioned this brand as "the cheapest...". In order to be the cheapest you have to undercut all the other operators that also guarantee to be the cheapest, won't be beaten on price, etc. Make no mistake, THL has lead the market in offering vehicles at heavy discounts and unsustainable rates. Even Jucy no longer offer a "best price guarantee".

The problem with "a sale is a sale" is that it DOESN'T feed straight to the bottom line, there are costs associated with the rental (like R&M). When you are renting cars or campers for around $15/day, you are losing money. The industry in general has enough capacity for enough of the year to ensure that those that choose to compete based on lowest price make no money most of the time. The market seems to be pretty efficient at driving rates to levels at which you are better off not making the sale.

J R Ewing
11-11-2010, 08:51 AM
Didin't they used to flog off their older campers to others - which actually gave the cheap and cheerful competitors their start - and now they're addressing their competiors head on?? ... And of course the supply of older camapers will just dry up so it'll be the competitors that'll be having the hard time?

I saw this as a good thing.

Running the older (ex Maui and Britz) Campers in the Backpacker and Explore brands makes sense - if the budget brands are making money and if they are not adversely affecting the yeild in Maui/Britz by driving down prices. The point about not giving competitors a start could be viewed as an added bonus, but I wouldn't want to be losing money in the process - at the end of the day there is little barrier to entry at the very basic camper end of the market. I think that the really "cheap and cheerful" operators fit out their own (not self contained) vans based on used import Toyota Previa or HiAce vans or something similar. When Explore was set up to take these on, I think their vehicles were purpose built rather than ex Maui, and similarly with the car fleet Explore operates - these were fresh imports and maybe some second hand NZ new vehicles.

bull....
11-11-2010, 02:17 PM
Looked like they were selling down their fleet in last year.
Old campervans?

bull....
15-11-2010, 10:34 AM
I forgot to say I wont be looking to try my strategy fully untill closer to world cup as I do not see this year being very good for THL probably a full year loss.

Sauce
15-11-2010, 12:59 PM
I forgot to say I wont be looking to try my strategy fully untill closer to world cup as I do not see this year being very good for THL probably a full year loss.

Also known as "catching a falling knife" ? ;-)

winner69
18-11-2010, 06:27 PM
Pretty depressing presentations at the AGM .... no wonder the share price sinks to recent lows again

What is it that in a country where tourism is our biggest export earner and the biggest operator in the country can't make a decent bob out of it

Maybe, just maybe, another 3 years and the retructure will start to work ... just in time for another one

macduffy
19-11-2010, 02:18 PM
Yes, the corporate model doesn't seem to work here, much as it doesn't with NZ's other big earner, agriculture.

THL's business is too capital intensive to be a good longterm investment, IMO.

Might be worth a trade to catch the RWC euphoria at some stage but I wouldn't bank on that either.

J R Ewing
19-11-2010, 02:43 PM
Yes, the corporate model doesn't seem to work here, much as it doesn't with NZ's other big earner, agriculture.

THL's business is too capital intensive to be a good longterm investment, IMO.

Might be worth a trade to catch the RWC euphoria at some stage but I wouldn't bank on that either.


What do you think it is about the corporate model that would prevent it working in the rental industry, or maybe tourism in general?

macduffy
19-11-2010, 03:02 PM
I really don't know but it seems that the most successful tourism ventures have a strong element of "hands-on" personal service which may be better suited to the smaller operators.

Plus the aforementioned high capital/depreciation aspect of much of the plant.

Perhaps more susceptible than most industries to cyclical influences? The fluctuations in visitor arrival numbers from some countries make scary reading sometimes from an operator or investor's point of view.

J R Ewing
19-11-2010, 03:55 PM
I tend to agree with you that "hands on" is an advantage. But there are some significant sized companies that have not lost that element, for example I think you would be hard pressed to find a CEO who is more in touch with all aspects of his company than Air NZ's Rob Fyfe. Economies of scale are also important in the rental industry, in my view it is the smaller operators who will come under the greatest pressure over the next few years.

The capital depreciation aspect boils down to getting enough rental income to cover the depreciation, which in turn implies that you need to match your supply to the demand. Fluctuations in key markets are a big problem, as your fleet size can't be varied quickly enough to respond to the changes.

bull....
19-11-2010, 04:53 PM
Attended the AGM yesterday pretty low key affair , The funniest part of the meeting was over hearing 2 old buggars behind me talking about all the food at the FBU AGM.
Anyway talking with the chairman afterwards they seem pretty set on the business being rentals only going forward , looks like they want to be market leaders. The chairman responses to some of my questions gave me the confidence to think my strategy may still work for 2011 -12,13.

winner69
21-11-2010, 03:25 PM
Gaynor seems to use THL as a benchmark for incompetence on Boards
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10688805

Hardly a glowing view of THL .... and as we know it is the leadership that is missing
Pertinent bits -

Two annual meetings this week give excellent examples of the impact quality of board leadership and composition can have on shareholder value.

Fletcher Building, which is now chaired by Ralph Waters, has become our biggest listed company largely because of excellent board leadership and composition. The clear impression from the annual meeting was that the board is hard-headed and makes decisions that are in the best interest of the company.

By contrast, Tourism Holdings, which held its annual meeting on Thursday, should be far more hard-headed about board composition, particularly its leadership.

Chairman Keith Smith, who was standing for re-election, gave completely the wrong message when he told shareholders the company's executives and his fellow directors supported his re-election.

Smith did not mention any consultation with shareholders although a director said after the meeting he believed Smith had talked to one major shareholder.

Unfortunately too many directors take the same view as Smith and if Pumpkin Patch isn't careful it could become more like a Tourism Holdings than a Fletcher Building.

J R Ewing
26-11-2010, 08:13 AM
The funniest part of the meeting was over hearing 2 old buggars behind me talking about all the food at the FBU AGM.


I guess you could contrive to own one share in every listed company and extract quite a good return in sandwiches and sausage rolls!

bull....
02-12-2010, 12:54 PM
I guess you could contrive to own one share in every listed company and extract quite a good return in sandwiches and sausage rolls!

LOL , Im sure some people work that way

bull....
03-12-2010, 02:34 PM
Rentals aquisition done , not surprising to my self as saying they will have to buy sales.
Obviously if it pans out the US will become a market for expansion but probably not an easy one.

macduffy
03-12-2010, 05:21 PM
Well, of course "Tourism Holdings " is just a convenient generic name for a company which is operating in this general sector. And in the words of the bard " A rose by any other name would smell as sweet" - or not!

I've maintained for some time now that the business is inherently unattractive - too capital intensive for one thing. Personally, I wouldn't touch it as a long term portfolio investment, although there may be times when it could be a short term trade. Not just now though, IMO.

J R Ewing
06-12-2010, 12:02 PM
If memory serves me correctly (from quite a few years back) isn't one of the major holders of THL the same company that supplies them with their raw material ... Campervans. From memory, the company is private and therefore not subject to the same strategy oversight as the public THL.

Would it be far too sinister (or indeed correct) to suggest that THL shareholder worth is simply being transferred to the private company that manufactures the campervans THL forks out for? How would we know whether THL is actually paying a market rate for the CVs? Is the relationship actually arms length? How much influence does the private company have mgt appointments and strategy?

If I'm out of date, my apologies. But that relationship, which existed some years ago, kept me out of THL (except for the occasional chart based raid for a few bob).

I think CI Munro make all their campervans now, and they are owned by THL.

winner69
21-12-2010, 11:48 AM
See the CEO and 5 other execs got 200,000 shares the other day as part of their incentives

Bit of a come down from last year when they got 1.9 million (at 49 cents)

Love these companies that try to align execs interests with shareholders ..... what happened to the good old days of don't succeed you do down the road ... in disgrace. That seem to be enough to make sure things happned

J R Ewing
21-12-2010, 02:14 PM
It always struck me that options issued at an exercise price ABOVE current market would be a better way to go.

fwu005
19-01-2011, 07:56 AM
World cup is coming in near soon, World economy is recovering, would greatly boost thl's business. THL shares look over sold. Do you think is good time to buy some and keep it ?

winner69
19-01-2011, 07:59 AM
THL profits over the years seem to be negatively correlated to tourist numbers .... as tourist numbers go up their profits (losses) go down

fwu005
19-01-2011, 08:18 AM
THL profits over the years seem to be negatively correlated to tourist numbers .... as tourist numbers go up their profits (losses) go down

THL holds unique tourist resources, which is not likely compete with China. Profits go down is temporary but longer term must be good. Much better than NZ manufacture sect, China can make stealth aircraft, what else they can't ?

fwu005
19-01-2011, 10:43 PM
Tourism Industry Monitor:
Expected change in demand and profitability in the next 3 months (Dec10-Feb11 vs. Dec09-Feb10)
Small businesses are expecting little change in demand and profitability in the next 3 months relative to the same period last year, while medium-sized businesses are expecting some uplift in demand. Large businesses are expecting an increase in both demand and profitability. Overall profitability for the industry is expected to increase by 1.5% in the next 3 months.

fwu005
24-01-2011, 10:18 PM
International Visitor Arrivals November 2010
Australia 84,625 0.1%
United Kingdom 21,175 -13.6%
United States 19,150 2.0%
China 14,875 34.5%
Japan 8,375 4.3%
Germany 8,025 -0.9%
South Korea 6,175 41.3%
Canada 5,050 2.6%

J R Ewing
25-01-2011, 07:12 AM
International Visitor Arrivals November 2010
Australia 84,625 0.1%
United Kingdom 21,175 -13.6%
United States 19,150 2.0%
China 14,875 34.5%
Japan 8,375 4.3%
Germany 8,025 -0.9%
South Korea 6,175 41.3%
Canada 5,050 2.6%

The growth is in the short stay, low value tourism and the contraction is in the high value Interactive Visitors that NZ most needs. The headline arrivals number is not too bad, but when you drill down a bit further you can see that the picture is much worse for general tourism than it is for the airlines and airports.

winner69
25-01-2011, 07:54 AM
The growth is in the short stay, low value tourism and the contraction is in the high value Interactive Visitors that NZ most needs. The headline arrivals number is not too bad, but when you drill down a bit further you can see that the picture is much worse for general tourism than it is for the airlines and airports.

Hey JR don't spoil a good story but the -14% decline in numbers from UK and no growth in Aussie numbers is not good for tourism is it

J R Ewing
25-01-2011, 08:50 AM
It's OK if you are an airline or airport, probably good if your in the business of coach tours for the short stay Asian visitors or supplying attractions or other services to these visitors. Not good for accommodation, rental cars, campervans and attractions that are slightly off the beaten track, I suspect the downturn is worse in the regions outside Auckland, Rotorua and Queenstown. Canterbury tourism has been badly affected by the quake.

J R Ewing
25-01-2011, 09:12 AM
Article on stuff:

China's largest airline has started a $10 million campaign using Queenstown imagery to attract tourists to New Zealand.

Earlier this month China Southern Airlines announced three direct flights between Guangzhou – a major transit hub 120km north-west of Hong Kong – to Auckland International Airport starting in April.

The airline is the largest in China, operating a fleet of more than 300 aircraft to 121 destinations worldwide.

Auckland Airport general manager aeronautical business development Glenn Wedlock said the inbound Chinese tourism market was emerging rapidly.

Auckland Airport was working with Chinese counterparts on the campaign, which includes TV ads, in-flight magazines and airport billboards.

Some New Zealand flights were already fully booked and the aim was to provide itineraries that included return Queenstown flights from Auckland, Mr Wedlock said.

"We already have programmes in place for Guangzhou, with onward flights to Queenstown," he said.

"Certainly in Guangzhou Tourism New Zealand is spending more money.''

With its fast-growing economy and increasing wealth China's urban classes were enjoying the benefits of disposable incomes.

The ad campaign extended from the major southern hubs to regional cities, such as Shenzhen, a city north of Hong Kong with an urban population of 4 million.

The city's airport, Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, is the fifth busiest in China.

"Queenstown can offer contrasting imagery, different colours, experiences and destinations," Mr Wedlock said.

"Australia has its iconic destinations but we have four seasons and can offer mountains and glaciers in a short space of time."

Itineraries to Queenstown could include add-ons with, for example, visits to Fiordland and Southland.

Mr Wedlock said Tourism New Zealand forecast around 14 per cent of the visitor market was Chinese.

The hope was this market would grow to compare with the number of Japanese and South Korean visitors.

Most Chinese visitors arrived on tour groups but, increasingly, independent travellers were venturing to New Zealand from China, he said.

China Southern Airlines previously announced flights to Auckland via Melbourne but the latest direct flights bypassed Australia, offering a boost to the New Zealand market.

The three times a week service using 284-seater Airbus A330s is scheduled to start on April 8.

Ad Feedback - The Southland Times



It is good to see this market slowly shifting from tour groups to independent travellers. It will take a while, but over time we will see less and less emphasis on the "see everything in a 3-day bus trip" type holiday.

winner69
25-01-2011, 09:16 AM
Interesting that from that increase quoted by fwu more than a third of the increase was related to people coming for conferences and conventions ..... those coming on holiday were only up 1.5%

winner69
25-01-2011, 09:35 AM
Bak on this thread somewhere are some charts prepared for bull showing vistor numbers and THL revneues

How well this company has done is summed up -

Since 2000 vistor numbers are up 48% while THL revenues per share are down 27% - June years

And the shareprice has followed the revenues line ... although on a price sales basis the current shareprice is historically low but then the market may have woken up to what really happens in the land of campervan and tourist attractions

Snoopy
01-02-2011, 09:27 AM
(I hired) an 'Explore' rental car from THL combined with an 'Explore' rental tent! I was expected inside at the THL desk in Auckland by 5pm.

It was around ten past five when I eventually got to the fortunately still open office of THL. My tent 'hamper' exceeded all expectations: A huge chilli bin of pots pans, plates jugs and utensils. Exactly the same big box as is supplied to the campervan customers I think. I also got a decent sleeping bag and a duvet that I could use as a ground mattress (being summer and all). But the tent itself, oh dear!

No instructions, no guy ropes and a distinct shortage of tent pegs and no hammer! I was given a beehive type tent with two carbon rod arch frames, but no end pieces. Fortunately I had the foresight to bring my own hammer, and I was able to bash the carbon rod ends directly into the ground. I used what tent pegs I had to create a floppy structure that was enough to shelter from the elements for the night. If a storm had brewed up I think my tent would have collapsed though! I am fairly sure I was the joke of the campground. Although given what I had to work with I thought I had come up with something that 'Mcgyver' would have been proud of. Fortunately my travel plan had me returning to the airport briefly the next day. There I was able to pick up some of the missing tent pieces. But imagine if I had been a tourist setting off on a grand tour of the North Island. My THL camping experience would have been a disaster!

In summary my second THL 'consumer experience' found nothing wrong with the staff I encountered on the ground. But there were a couple of 'system failures' in there which must be cause for concern. I hope for the sake of shareholders THL can get themselves sorted out before World Cup year.


One year on I repeated my THL rental car and tent trip. First thing I noticed was that the Airport office now closed at 4pm. Probably a good way to make sure that all the paperwork was done and dusted by 5pm. This time I arrived at a not quite so frenetic 2:30pm.

Rather than wait in a queue, I was directed to a self check in screen, part of a row of such screens. I thought this new system was quite a good innovation. Nobody likes waiting, but if 'while they wait' they can be busied entering and confirming their own contract details this eases the waiting pain.

Then my tent arrived, a brand new one! The tent box said for four people, but only a family of sardines would be happy with that description. In any event the tent was only promted as a two person unit. Complete with an outside vestibule, plus foam rolls to put under the sleeping bags and an extra outside hammock (!), no one could complain it wasn't a complete camping package. The tent instructions were sewn into the tent bag itself, so no chance of being 'lost' this time. The only thing missing was a mallet for the tent pegs, but I was able to improvise by putting a heavy stone inside my shoe. I can report the tent was well watertight too, as it rained heavily every night.

The rental car itself presented on paper as a bit of a wreck. When I looked at the actual car, it presented much better than on paper. The girl behind the counter I think was overzealous on noting the damage, much of which were the kind of surface paint scrapes you might expect on a ten year old rental car. In practice the car performed very well, and I returned it with no more additions to be made to the damaged paper artwork.

In general, I couldn't have found the staff more cheerful and helpful. They even printed me out a google map showing the fine detail of where I wanted to get to. If my one experience is representative, it does look like THL are on the right track, service wise, for world cup year. This was a big improvement!

SNOOPY

minimoke
04-02-2011, 08:37 AM
Yikes
When profit downgrades are worsened and banking covenants in breach their is only one place for eh SP to go today!

macduffy
04-02-2011, 09:45 AM
Small correction, belg.

Non-earning and depreciating.

Stranger_Danger
04-02-2011, 09:54 AM
Man this company is a dog. Never owned it, never will.

winner69
04-02-2011, 10:04 AM
Man this company is a dog. Never owned it, never will.

and those visitor numbers and tourism outlook reports were looking so good .... ha ha

Man o man --- losing money again .... or have they ever made any real money?

If any body ever wants a brief history of world events just read THL (sorry they prefer the lower case thl now .. my apologies) reports .... from Sydney Olympics to 9/11 to financial crises to earthquakes to floods to rugby world cups and even more rugby world cups and all the other excuses ... history lesson for all

I fear even another go at new management or restructuring won't work ... thl is really past redemption ... thl is broken ... bankers need to put it out of its misery

Bet shareholders who have been holding for a while regret they didn't let the aussies have it for 280 or something a few years ago ... was it really 280

minimoke
04-02-2011, 10:57 AM
and those visitor numbers and tourism outlook reports were looking so good .... ha ha

We've just had friends from overseas visit and they spent three weeks going around teh south island. Observations:
- food an OK price. (so not a drawcard)
- Eating out is an OK price ((so not a draw card)
- Maori are proud of their roots (so no racial disharmony to spoil a visit)
- talking to locals in non-touristy areas was a highlight (its the non-tourist sector that provided a highpoint)
- They went on virtually every tourist thing there was to do (except bungy jumping). - Some prices were OK but some like quad bike riding at $250 a person way over the top. Most things they could have done at home but because it was just down the road they didn't bother (so our adventure tourism isn't that unique)
- They rented a Juicy vehicle out of Europe for the best price.
- Most importantly - where ever they went there no queues. It was straight onto the attraction. (where are the tourists??)

winner69
04-02-2011, 11:11 AM
Record number of tourists in December

So says the paper today .... and hey there does seem to be a negative correlation between tourist numbers and THL shareprice

Hpe a record number of tourists doesn't lead to a record low shareprice eh

bull....
04-02-2011, 11:41 AM
I forgot to say I wont be looking to try my strategy fully untill closer to world cup as I do not see this year being very good for THL probably a full year loss.

Always said this year would be bad for them and that long term they are destined to failure due to their strategy.
I dont even think ill try my short term strategy now as RWC probably wont save the rot.

POSSUM THE CAT
04-02-2011, 12:32 PM
The INCREASE in GST made NZ a less desirable place to visit & some idiots want to increase it some more. And January would be when it started to hit People booking in October where looking at the increase the GST had on the cost of visiting NZ. Then they looked at alternatives. Is This what has happened to THL.

minimoke
04-02-2011, 01:10 PM
Is This what has happened to THL.
I doubt it it. If visitor numbers are up THL should be benefiting. If Rugby world cup is supposed to be a boomer year THL should benefit. If I look on the roads all I see are Juicy and Wicked branded vehicles. In the past travelling through central was a real pain because of all the Maui camper vans - but I saw none this year. What I have seen is loads of them parked up in yards. Juicy by all accounts is really taking off. Strikes me that THGL haven't moved with the times.

We could perhaps blame the increase in GST, but we should also look at the NZ$ - we aren't a cheap destination anymore.The friends mentioned above probably spent $20 - $30k - for that sort of money I couldn't recommend NZ as a destination.

fungus pudding
04-02-2011, 01:24 PM
The INCREASE in GST made NZ a less desirable place to visit & some idiots want to increase it some more. And January would be when it started to hit People booking in October where looking at the increase the GST had on the cost of visiting NZ. Then they looked at alternatives. Is This what has happened to THL.

Hardly. Given that the single biggest cost is probably the airfare, which is unaffected by GST, and a lot of accomodation has not added any margin because of GST icrease, the overall difference is likely to be around 1%. Most visitors would be unlikely to even know or care that there has been a GST increase. Most likely factors are the world economy and our stronger currency.

J R Ewing
04-02-2011, 02:05 PM
We could perhaps blame the increase in GST, but we should also look at the NZ$ - we aren't a cheap destination anymore.The friends mentioned above probably spent $20 - $30k - for that sort of money I couldn't recommend NZ as a destination.

NZ has never really been a "cheap" destination as the airline ticket from most of the world is obviously very expensive. and of course we don't want to be a "cheap" destination, that will only provide jobs at the minimum wage level, low profitability for companies and a high load on our environment and infrastructure for little real economic gain. The objective is to attract visitors that spend a reasonable amount of money while here - and in general this works well. While you say you couldn't recommend NZ for $20- 30k, many visitors do spend that and we get a very high satisfaction rating from surveys. Aside from the airfare, you certainly have to spend more money visiting Europe or North America than you do on holiday in NZ.

minimoke
04-02-2011, 03:15 PM
NZ has never really been a "cheap" destination as the airline ticket from most of the world is obviously very expensive. and of course we don't want to be a "cheap" destination, that will only provide jobs at the minimum wage level, low profitability for companies and a high load on our environment and infrastructure for little real economic gain. The objective is to attract visitors that spend a reasonable amount of money while here - and in general this works well. While you say you couldn't recommend NZ for $20- 30k, many visitors do spend that and we get a very high satisfaction rating from surveys. Aside from the airfare, you certainly have to spend more money visiting Europe or North America than you do on holiday in NZ.
I'm inclined to agree - at least in theory. In practice clearly its not working for THL. In my neck of the woods I haven't seen the "high end" camper van people for the past few years - and this year they were pretty much non-existent. But the exponential growth of Wicked and Juicy has been huge - they are all over the place.

So what we aspire to provide balanced against what people want seems to be at odds. Clearly there is demand for low cost freedom comping. Its a great life because you get to travel, stay somewhere like queenstown and work in the tourism industry for minimum (cash) wage to fund your next set of stops. THL doesn't seem ot have grasped this volume market. Looks like they have also lost the high value market. Which doesn't leave them too many other places to go.

If we aren't attracting the high value customers should we be spendign money on the Hobbit if it just brings in more freedom campers?

winner69
04-02-2011, 03:27 PM
Suppose the Forbar guru analyst Mercer who has had BUY and ACCUMULATE on thl will change it SELL now .... no never do that Rob thl is now a screaming buy .. esp when the US thing really starts bringing in the dosh as you reported back in December

h2so4
04-02-2011, 03:30 PM
Very ugly business.

Take a look at the depreciation in Y09 and Y10, then look at the massive difference in capital expenditure.

Seems like they are not spending enough to maintain their fleet of campers.

You have to ask how long can this happy state of affairs continue?

THL looking like the GM of NZ.

macduffy
04-02-2011, 05:08 PM
Anyone who knew the history of a company called Tranz Tours wouldn't touch THL with the proverbial.

A very similar company with camper vans and - in Tranz' case, tourist buses - caught out in the same way with a high capital cost and a sick business. In Tranz' case it was an oil shock in the 70's that caught them out.

History doesn't repeat exactly, but it offers some valuable lessons.

h2so4
04-02-2011, 05:31 PM
is that a recommendation to buy? ;)

Yes that's right, BUY anything except THL :)

J R Ewing
05-02-2011, 06:36 AM
I'm inclined to agree - at least in theory. In practice clearly its not working for THL. In my neck of the woods I haven't seen the "high end" camper van people for the past few years - and this year they were pretty much non-existent. But the exponential growth of Wicked and Juicy has been huge - they are all over the place.

So what we aspire to provide balanced against what people want seems to be at odds. Clearly there is demand for low cost freedom comping. Its a great life because you get to travel, stay somewhere like queenstown and work in the tourism industry for minimum (cash) wage to fund your next set of stops. THL doesn't seem ot have grasped this volume market. Looks like they have also lost the high value market. Which doesn't leave them too many other places to go.

If we aren't attracting the high value customers should we be spendign money on the Hobbit if it just brings in more freedom campers?

I think the problem with the high end market relates to economic conditions in key markets especially Europe. I hope and expect that this will return in the not too distant future. Jucy does a better job of marketing, at least to the low cost end of the market, and my guess is that they run a leaner operation that can make money at lower rates than thl. Wicked is not that big and I'm pretty sure they will be having a fairly bad season as they are based in Brisbane. Personally, I don't think thl should have tried to take on this end of the market given that their strategy seemed to be to try to undercut these guys on price. Wicked has pretty much got "low cost" down to a T.

More recently, thl have focused on launching new quality products and getting the details and service aspects of the business right. For instance look back at Snoopy's posts. If they get that right, they can do OK when the Europeans come back here spending money.

bull....
05-02-2011, 06:43 AM
Speaking of juicy a while back they brought a tourist attraction , I think it was some sub thing in milford sounds? guess THL think their nuts because they decided none of this stuff was worthwile

hmm who has the right strategy?

Balance
06-02-2011, 09:07 AM
Quote from ... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10704203

Forsyth Barr's head of research, Rob Mercer, said the share price heavily discounted the market value of Tourism Holdings' assets. "It's certainly an excessive discount, therefore there is an element of overreaction," he said. But profit performance continued to be an issue for investors. The issue was cyclical rather than structural, he said. When you've got a large investment in fleet and a high fixed cost structure, when you get these pull-backs in demand and yield pressures that they're experiencing, then the earnings suffer and that makes people want to question whether this is a sustainable long-term business, which I think it is." Releasing capital through reducing the size of the fleet would be a better use of capital than raising equity. "We've seen it before - when they've had earnings come off, they [can] downsize their fleet, release capital for the business, retire debt and then look to reset the fleet to match demand the following year."

Haven't looked but a have THL overcapitalised in their fleet purchases anticipating huge demand from the RWC and the recent downturn has simply got them cashsqueezed?

Belgie-me-ole-mate, this is not the first time that THL has had problems with its camper van business.

It is bad business - 5 years of earnings wiped out in one bad season.

Downsizing does not really work as THL ends up with more competition as rivals use the opportunity to buy up the cheap vans and set up in competition.

Forbar has been a fan of THL since it was the Helicopter Line 20 years ago! Nothing new there.

h2so4
06-02-2011, 09:55 AM
Quote from ... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10704203

Forsyth Barr's head of research, Rob Mercer, said the share price heavily discounted the market value of Tourism Holdings' assets. "It's certainly an excessive discount, therefore there is an element of overreaction," he said. But profit performance continued to be an issue for investors. The issue was cyclical rather than structural, he said. When you've got a large investment in fleet and a high fixed cost structure, when you get these pull-backs in demand and yield pressures that they're experiencing, then the earnings suffer and that makes people want to question whether this is a sustainable long-term business, which I think it is." Releasing capital through reducing the size of the fleet would be a better use of capital than raising equity. "We've seen it before - when they've had earnings come off, they [can] downsize their fleet, release capital for the business, retire debt and then look to reset the fleet to match demand the following year."



Rob Mercer you goose, that's what all businesses do when they can't generate enough cash. Oh you forgot to add, lay off staff, and sell more shares in the company (oh that's where we come in and make our millions), but who wants to be left holding the bag?

J R Ewing
06-02-2011, 09:57 AM
Belg,

They have been launching some new campers called their platinum series but I think this is fleet replacement rather than expansion. As for RWC, because it is a one-off and of relatively short duration, you can't justify putting on extra vehicles specifically for RWC. The general expectation is that RWC will transform two fairly ordinary months into peak season turnover - where you get to use all of your fleet at summer rates rather than have most of them parked up.

For that reason I don't think they will want to reduce fleet size right now, except for the knackered old vans that are due for retirement in any event. It's just not a credible suggestion that they can de-fleet after February (when everything SHOULD be on the road) and re build in time for RWC. That process would require a whole lot of extra capital as the build cost for a new van will be a lot more than they would get for selling the old ones.

Part of this is cyclical, but there must obviously be structural issues as well. In a cyclical business you need to make good profits in good seasons, and THL has never really managed this. Other rental businesses have managed to grow, making good profits in good years and smaller profits (as opposed to losses) during the various crises.

As for the suggestion that they need to diversify - have they not just spent the last few years divesting themselves of non-core assets?

bull....
10-02-2011, 06:25 AM
todays article in the stuff website http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/4638567/Small-rental-companies-report-good-business

J R Ewing
10-02-2011, 07:59 AM
todays article in the stuff website http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/4638567/Small-rental-companies-report-good-business

Hi bull,

In all fairness, THL hasn't said its RWC bookings were bad, just that this summer is a bit of a train wreck. I'm sure their bookings for RWC would be fine at this stage. Those comparisons of up 8000% are of course off a very low base - as this stage in a normal year you expect to have virtually nil forward bookings for September. Actually, it is still quite hard to work out just how good RWC will be - we really haven't had anything similar with which to compare. Spaceships and Jucy might just be taking the opportunity to put the boot in to THL while they are down. That could be viewed as fair repayment for some of the media releases made by THL's previous CEO that were not at all complimentary about most of the rental industry!

It's interesting to note the comments that Spaceships and Jucy have found the smaller/cheaper sleepervan type product is going relatively well. You would think in that case Explore More would be going OK for THL. Longer term, there may be a bit of an issue with this type of product (not self-contained). This is the type of vehicle that angers the locals when they freedom camp. They are supposed to be restricted to camp grounds and similar sites where there are toilet facilities.

J R Ewing
20-02-2011, 10:56 AM
The quality of tourism from China is improving, and will continue to do so as the Chinese become more experienced travelers and shift from bus trips to independent travel. That said, I can't see them taking up campervans in a big way, it just doesn't seem to appeal to that culture.

Balance
20-02-2011, 11:36 AM
The quality of tourism from China is improving, and will continue to do so as the Chinese become more experienced travelers and shift from bus trips to independent travel. That said, I can't see them taking up campervans in a big way, it just doesn't seem to appeal to that culture.

How often do we read this :

1. Businesses which adjust to changes in the market place thrive and prosper.

2. Businesses which can influence changes in the market also do well.

3. Businesses which are incapable of doing either 1 or 2 are incapable of delivering consistent returns.

THL must change its business model or continue to be the company it has been for the last 20 years - inconsistent returns.

As a side note, don't underestimate the damage done to NZ's image and to the campervan business of tourists being robbed, burgled, beaten, harassed and in some high profile cases, raped whilst driving around in camper vans in NZ.

http://emigratetonewzealand.wordpress.com/2010/05/22/french-tourists-beaten-up-in-northland-campervan-robbery/

elZorro
20-02-2011, 12:20 PM
How often do we read this :

1. Businesses which adjust to changes in the market place thrive and prosper.

2. Businesses which can influence changes in the market also do well.

3. Businesses which are incapable of doing either 1 or 2 are incapable of delivering consistent returns.

THL must change its business model or continue to be the company it has been for the last 20 years - inconsistent returns.

I'm reading "Ogg" by Bob Jones. In this 2002 book, Bob postulates that many slightly older/refurbed hotels and airlines worldwide are so desperate for market share that there is huge churn, but little longterm profit in, either business. Just a whole lot of middle-class people viewing the lives of generally poorer people, tourism in a nutshell. Campervans being driven round NZ, when there are a lot of new competitors, surely fits this scenario - it's unlikely to be hugely profitable. SkyCity appear to have been very clever by comparison, spending some new capital on setting up the facilities for foreign high-rollers who think nothing of spending $500,000 on a gambling holiday.

Maybe more NZers will travel in campervans around NZ, once the cost of airline tickets more fairly reflects the lease and fuel expenses of a profitable airline. How could the campervan industry set itself up to be a safer, semi-guided and more reputable means of travel for the more likely tourists in the medium term, those from Asia? That might be a useful study.

bull....
24-02-2011, 08:38 AM
Lower revenues and higher debt bit of a worry

minimoke
15-03-2011, 08:28 AM
Christchurch is turning into Campervan City. THL should be well placed to provide 10,000 - 40,000 people with temporary accommodation. If they aren't, they should be asking why not.

Kees
15-03-2011, 09:34 AM
Christchurch is turning into Campervan City. THL should be well placed to provide 10,000 - 40,000 people with temporary accommodation. If they aren't, they should be asking why not.

this wont last, if you ever lived in a camper for any length of time in the same place is not a good idea and the logistic's will be a nightmare.

J R Ewing
15-04-2011, 04:23 PM
It would be very hard to realise the NTA in a sell off. There just isn't that big a market for campervans. Then you would have to exit leases etc in the winding down process. You have to assume it is being valued as a going concern.

I wonder how the independent valuation will come out. They won't be able to value it based on an earnings multiple! So I assume they will put a value on it based on forecasts and being "well placed for the recovery". The offer values the business at $66m. How much more would they be prepared to pay? Today the market says it wants $69m.

Hawke
15-04-2011, 07:47 PM
I believed THL were really undervalued as sub 75c. This especially given the big lift NZ tourism would get later this year with RWC. The general lift NZ inc. getting via increased profile with our hosting of many big budget movies in recent years and going forward.

This bid is a welcome sign for the recent purchasers- but very low and cheeky! I hope is flushes out some serious buyers.

Mine are on the block at 90c!

Hawke....soaring with the Eagles!

janner
15-04-2011, 08:41 PM
To Belg..

Smug prick.. :-)) But that is what it is all about Aye....

tim23
15-04-2011, 08:52 PM
Hawke - you are dreaming if you want 90c! sell, now

scamper
15-04-2011, 09:54 PM
Eh?! Are you in the market Hawke! wanna buy some!
I reckon there's 20% to come in the lead up to the rugger stoush...

Hawke
16-04-2011, 09:53 AM
And all you say is correct Belg.

I purchased my stake just after the banking issues recently. NTA backing that is on solid, easily disposed assets made it a low risk trade in the 60c range. My plan was a potential exit before Christmas at likely north of 75c - looked in my mind a likely outcome.

This T/O offer just made the whole this THL holding a hell of a lot more interesting with a lot more attention now focused on this just recently unloved puppy. I would think THL's pendng independent valuation will surprise many here on the upside - especially those who think my 90c ambitions are (now within short months) pie in the sky.

Go the campers!

winner69
16-04-2011, 10:08 AM
...... I would think THL's pendng independent valuation will surprise many here on the upside - especially those who think my 90c ambitions are (now within short months) pie in the sky.

Go the campers!

Last time there was an Independent Advisor's Report (Ferrier Hodgson) it was a range from $2.67 to $3.07 per share.

Even then the punters rejected it because even that didn't reflect the huge potential of thl

Funny whats happened since eh

patsy
17-04-2011, 07:30 AM
If we look at EPS, in 2002, the end of the last recession/slowdown, it was 2.5, by 2003 it was 8.2, and 2004 it was 11.4 and at 2007 it reached it price max with 2008 showing a healthy but unsustainable EPS or 14.2. So will this time be any different? I'd doubt it although between lows and highs in 2002 and 2008 was about 5 years, I suspect due to the GFC it'll be a bit longer this time around.


Thoughts?

ps. W69, one of your dogs has just barked loudly.

We need to be careful with comparisons of EPS. THL was a very well diversified company with a lot of synergies up until a few years ago. The figures you quote (from 2002 and so on) came from a time when THL owned over 40 business (e.g., Milford's Red Boats, Kelly Tarlton, etc. etc.) They divested from those and now they are only a campervan operation plus a couple of attractions like Waitomo's. They sold those units to repay debt.

THL is a clear case of a value-destroying company. The recent TO offer is a very welcome development for those that plan to hold on to their shares. There is always the hope that, by having a majority shareholding, the new owner will kick out some of the directors and management (both of whom have been there for too long witnessing how investors got fleeced while pocketing significant salaries - just download the annual report and check!).

While THL shareholders got whacked over the past 8 years, Jucy kept on making inroads - so I don't buy the argument of cyclical stock for a minute.

I'll re-buy THL stock only when and if the TO succeeds. I may not be making as much as if I had entered a week ago but I'll have hope that the new oner will step in and stomp the cr*p out of everyone. If the TO does not proceed (likely because management issues a vote of no confidence), then the company will continue its perennial decline.

Buy yet again... it may end up like another Whitcoulls/Borders bought out by a private equity investment firm with no idea of what to do.

Here in Canada, there is a huge market for 2nd hand motorhomes. Perhaps the trick is to strip the assets out of THL and sell the vehicles in the North American market. I wouldn't shed a tear for THL if that were the case

Hawke
19-04-2011, 05:10 PM
So who is this person??.....

SSH: THL: SSH - (Gerard Thomas Ryan)

And is he only getting in before the potential takeover offer is raised or what?

Hawke.

winner69
20-04-2011, 10:45 AM
Belg/Hawke - you guys in good company

Even the Forbar guru analyst says THL is trading below NTA and is cheap as
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10720441

Great minds eh