Ebos Limited EBO

[777]

Interesting spike today on not particularly large volumes. Suspect with prices remaining well above the coming placement price investors are buying so they can purchase discounted shares and existing investors looking to grow # shares to maximise their position prior to scaling.

Also suspect we will see a lot of people stagging their newly purchased discounted shares for a profit post allotment - with a bit of a dip in prices following that.

No matter - great price reaction post announcement. I will subscribe for maximum shares but expect to be well scaled.

Scaling would be on shares held on the record date of 8 December 2021. So any buying or purchasing now won't alter anything.

[Muse]

Scaling would be on shares held on the record date of 8 December 2021. So any buying or purchasing now won't alter anything.

aye I was just checking that out and came back to delete my post - doh! interesting wonder what drove todays strength as everything is old news.

[Rawz]

Gee the SP is getting up their.

Taking some profits today..

[777]

Big volume at close of play.

[ratkin]

Scaling would be on shares held on the record date of 8 December 2021. So any buying or purchasing now won't alter anything.

No, but the higher price will make a difference, far more eligible shareholders will apply so going to be massive scaling

[Waltzing]

Does EBO have any part in distribution of ANTI GEN testing. Chemists looks like they are going to be the front line in AUS and pretty soon here :scared:

[Muse]

It's an interesting mentality question - how much/how hard does an existing shareholder take up their maximum NZ$50k investment?
Baring any new announcements / holding all else equal - it's interesting to me that as the SP rocketed up to +$40 I'm more of the view that I'll take up all that I can, given the SPP is $34.5 (or thereabouts). But if the SP had fallen and was below the recent rights issue, say at 33, even though I'd be getting more shares for my dollar, I'd be more relaxed about not taking up the maximum. Bit of my own psychology flaws I guess.

[macduffy]

Rather academic though, isn't it? It seems inevitable that the issue will be heavily oversubscribed and applications heavily scaled back

[percy]

Rather academic though, isn't it? It seems inevitable that the issue will be heavily oversubscribed and applications heavily scaled back

The trust I am a trustee of, is applying for the full amount,only because we have funds sitting at the brokers doing next to nothing..

[John.S]

I guess for small players like myself, knowing it would be scaled back based on number of shares held, but still needing cash for other purposes if it all went through.

I assumed I'd be scaled back to the circa 11% dilution of number of shares held.

I applied for twice as much of that 11% number i.e. using an easy example: Hold 1000 shares, applied for 220 @ $34.5, $7590.

So I only put in $25,000 into the application just in case it all went through I'd have fund available to pay my upcoming provisional tax.


Thought $34.50 is fair value at this stage. Similar thoughts to Fiordland Moose, my target price for accumulating would be sub $30 on the open market.

[iceman]

Wanted to subscribe to the offer but not impressed when this is what I got:

"Due to legal restrictions, access to this website is only available to residents of Australia and New Zealand from within Australia or New Zealand. In order to access this website, you must provide the State, Territory or Region and postcode for your primary residential address within Australia or New Zealand.

Persons accessing this website from outside of Australia or New Zealand must exit this website immediately."

[ratkin]

Wanted to subscribe to the offer but not impressed when this is what I got:

"Due to legal restrictions, access to this website is only available to residents of Australia and New Zealand from within Australia or New Zealand. In order to access this website, you must provide the State, Territory or Region and postcode for your primary residential address within Australia or New Zealand.

Persons accessing this website from outside of Australia or New Zealand must exit this website immediately."

That is a bit rough, you could try using the incognito window that chrome has, would at least hide your IP

[Snow Leopard]

Wanted to subscribe to the offer but not impressed when this is what I got:

"Due to legal restrictions, access to this website is only available to residents of Australia and New Zealand from within Australia or New Zealand. In order to access this website, you must provide the State, Territory or Region and postcode for your primary residential address within Australia or New Zealand.

Persons accessing this website from outside of Australia or New Zealand must exit this website immediately."

Use a VPN to remote into a NZ/AU based server and then subscribe for the offer.

[iceman]

Use a VPN to remote into a NZ/AU based server and then subscribe for the offer.

Thanks ratkin and Snow Leopard. Sorted :-)

[Muse]

lets take a poll - what will the scaling be - IE the % number of shares given on the number of shares requested...I have no idea - i'll say 60% scaling.

[percy]

lets take a poll - what will the scaling be - IE the % number of shares given on the number of shares requested...I have no idea - i'll say 60% scaling.

I will go 80% plus.

[Shareguy]

85 percent. To be safe I’m applying for 30 percent of my holding.

[ratkin]

Put in for 50k just in case, hopefully will get at least 10k worth, not expecting anymore than 20k worth.

[tango]

I will go 80% plus.

Agreed.
I'm not going to bother to apply for the full $50k
I don't think my 1000 shares are going to get me a big allocation

I wish they would do a non renounceable pro rata rights allocation with the option to put in for extra in any shares aren't claimed
So much easier and better on my wallet

[macduffy]

lets take a poll - what will the scaling be - IE the % number of shares given on the number of shares requested...I have no idea - i'll say 60% scaling.

It doesn't work like that. The scaling will take into account the number of shares held, as well as the number - implied by the $ amount - sought.

[tango]

I feel we will get less than 10% of our current shareholding

[Cabinet]

I think it will be 8% but hoping for more.

[Monarch]

Going off of shareholder metrics from the last report.

67 entities hold over 100k shares each, and own 82% of the stock
571 entities hold 10k-100k shares each, and own 8% of the stock. I assume the average member of this group owns 20,000 shares (not a guess, this is based on report data)
If these groups apply for the maximum of $50,000, they should receive ~1450 shares each, as a group they would take about 925,000 shares from the ~3,000,000 shares on offer. All entities within these groups will receive their maximum entitlement for all scaling levels above 7.5%.

This leaves ~2,075,000 shares for the rest, the rest being:
Group 1 - 761 entities with 5k-10k shares, I will assume the average member of this group has 7.5k shares.
Group 2 - 3744 entities with 1k-5k shares, I will assume the average member of this group has 2.5k shares.
Group 3 - 6507 entities with 1-1k shares, I will assume the average member of this group has 500 shares.

If we assume all holders are scaled to 20% of their current shareholding:
Group 1 - 761 entities receive the maximum entitlement of 1450 shares, 1,100,000 shares in total
Group 2 - 3744 entities receive 500 shares, 1,872,000 shares in total
Group 3 - 6507 entities receive 100 shares, 650,700 shares in total
This scenario exceeds the number of shares available by around 1,500,000 shares.

If we assume all holders are scaled to 10% of their current shareholding:
Group 1 - 761 entities receive 1125 shares, 856,125 shares in total
Group 2 - 3744 entities receive 375 shares, 1,404,000 shares in total
Group 3 - 6507 entities receive 75 shares, 488,025 shares in total
This scenario exceeds the number of shares available by around 670,000 shares.

If we assume all holders are scaled to 10% of their current shareholding:
Group 1 - 761 entities receive 750 shares, 570,750 shares in total
Group 2 - 3744 entities receive 250 shares, 936,000 shares in total
Group 3 - 6507 entities receive 50 shares, 325,350 shares in total
This scenario leaves 242,900 shares unallocated.

As this doesn't account for the impacts of the recent placement, assumes all entities request their full entitlement of $50,000 and assumes all entities in each group have the same number of shares (the average) it will be somewhat inaccurate. Having said this, I expect the scaling to be somewhere between 10% and 14% with no oversubscriptions.

[ratkin]

When do we find out our allocation?

[RTM]

When do we find out our allocation?

Yes…I am wanting to know when my refund will arrive as well.

[percy]

Record date (for identifying shareholders eligible to
participate in the Retail Offer)
7:00pm (NZDT) / 5:00pm (AEDT)
Wednesday, 8 December 2021
Retail Offer opens and Retail Offer Document is dispatched Wednesday, 15 December 2021
Retail Offer closes 7:00pm (NZDT) / 5:00pm (AEDT)
Monday, 17 January 2022
Retail Offer Issue Price announced Tuesday, 18 January 2022
Retail Offer allotment date Monday, 24 January 2022
Commencement of normal trading of new shares issued under
the Retail Offer on NZX Main Board Monday, 24 January 2022
Commencement of normal trading of new shares issued under
the Retail Offer on ASX Tuesday, 25 January 2022
Despatch of holding statements Friday, 28 January 2022

[Goose]

Hi all. There have been no announcements yet on the outcome of the retail offer but I have just checked via Computershare and see I have an allotment that works out at 13.74% of my existing holding at record date...heavily scaled and around the level that it seems some brokers were expecting.

[Pixelator]

Allocated 412 shares 13.7%. Applied for $50k

[tango]

Ditto 13.7% of existing shareholding

Waiting for my refund...

[777]

Allocated 412 shares 13.7%. Applied for $50k

The same for me.

[tango]

Refunds due on Friday
I wish they were faster with refunds

[RTM]

Yeah me to. Suspect I might need the money in a few hours from now.
Same %.


Refunds due on Friday
I wish they were faster with refunds


Ditto 13.7% of existing shareholding

Waiting for my refund...

[ratkin]

Where can you see your allocation? I have heard nothing.

[777]

Where can you see your allocation? I have heard nothing.

Where every thing is. The share registry. Computershare in this case.

[ratkin]

Where every thing is. The share registry. Computershare in this case.

Did they email you a statement or did you have to go and log in. (Forgotten my log in, bloody annoying they will only send the password in the post)

[JeffW]

Did they email you a statement or did you have to go and log in. (Forgotten my log in)

They'll email you a statement on Friday per post #1526. If you want to know before then, you'll need to log on

[Shareguy]

As expected got 14 percent. Have brought more on market today. Bottom drawer material this one.

[winner69]

Fisher have added EBO to their Kingfish Fund

That's good

[iceman]

Where every thing is. The share registry. Computershare in this case.

Deleted deleted

[tango]

Fisher have added EBO to their Kingfish Fund

That's good

Very positive news.
Mind you KFL still own ATM and a couple of other stocks I think are questionable - PPH and Vista

[macduffy]

Pleasantly surprised to receive a full allocation for my $30,000 - less $19.50 refund .

:)

[alokdhir]

Pleasantly surprised to receive a full allocation for my $30,000 - less $19.50 refund .

:)

As mentioned they have retained the full over subscription of $ 62 million ...why not if shares issued @ 34.50 ...:t_up:

[Dassets]

Strange disclosure from one of the directors today. I hope it is in error. Nicholas Dowling, starting page 5 of the disclosure, discloses an on-market sale 20 days ago, in a closed period and which he didn't seek approval either. Any thoughts? Have I got this wrong maybe?

[ratkin]

Strange disclosure from one of the directors today. I hope it is in error. Nicholas Dowling, starting page 5 of the disclosure, discloses an on-market sale 20 days ago, in a closed period and which he didn't seek approval either. Any thoughts? Have I got this wrong maybe?


Dont know what was more strange, only having 1500 hundred shares, or not selling the whole lot. Could be a mistake, maybe like the others he actually acquired 302 in the retail offer.

[Dassets]

Its a pretty basic requirement. I still have to file disclosure until 6 months after ceasing to be a director, still have to get clearance regardless of whether it is a closed period or open.

[Dassets]

I saw that. It actually needs the company to explain.

[Waltzing]

The whole thing is turning to custard over in NSW, probably still a good buy price right here for the future since the Offer burped up so few chips...

pulls back to low 35-36 a buy on the dip if it ever does.

[Dassets]

I saw that. It actually needs the company to explain.

See the company didn't respond to the NBR's enquiry. The "Just ignore it, it will go away" strategy. How arrogant! Bad strategy. Law apparently doesn't apply to these guys. Obvious FMA now enquiring. The Chairman should have been lead in this and the director should have stood down. Now it will become more than it should have been and the Chairman looks ineffectual.

[RTM]

This seems pretty abrupt…

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/386907
EBOS Group Limited (EBOS) advises that Mr Nick Dowling has resigned as a director of EBOS with effect from today

[Muse]

This seems pretty abrupt…

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/386907
EBOS Group Limited (EBOS) advises that Mr Nick Dowling has resigned as a director of EBOS with effect from today

you breaks the rules you pays the due. pretty cushy role that one
most be more to the story re insto pushback, FMA, etc - as I was expecting a humble apology and slap on the wrist.

[Dassets]

EBOS should just have said why. It is pretty obvious. I hope the FMA hasn't done a deal where the director goes and no action. Either EBOS comes out and says the guy "breached all its rules and the company demanded his resignation. The company is cooperating with the FMA and has agreed to a fine of Xx in respect of the breach" or this is a green light for companies to try it on and then do something later to fix it but avoid any action or not. CMON FMA shows us your fangs, defend your regs or might as well have your year end Xmas party now and close up shop.

[tango]

What is a restricted period for directors selling shares?

[winner69]

What is a restricted period for directors selling shares?

All covered in here tango

https://ebosgroup.gcs-web.com/static-files/ef68d20f-5de7-422d-ac61-fd0ed8f98986

[tango]

All covered in here tango

https://ebosgroup.gcs-web.com/static-files/ef68d20f-5de7-422d-ac61-fd0ed8f98986

Thanks! Hmmm... insider trading from someone on the audit and risk committee. Glad he's gone

[Sideshow Bob]

Half Year:

Half Year Results - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387335)

Key highlights of the first half included:

• Revenue of $5.3 billion (up 12.8%);
• Underlying Net Profit after Tax of $109.3 million (up 15.8%);o $7.4 million of M&A transaction costs (post-tax) were incurred in Statutory NPAT.
• Underlying EPS of 66.6 cents up 15.2%;
• Interim dividend declared of NZ 47.0 cents per share (up 10.6%);
• Continued strong performances from both our Healthcare and Animal Care segments, with Healthcare’s Underlying EBIT up 17.0% and Animal Care’s EBIT up 14.9%;
• Operating cash flow of $106.8 million (up 8.1%);
• Consistent with our strategy of investing for growth and as previously announced:o the Group completed three acquisitions to further expand its Institutional Healthcare division, including Sentry Medical, Pioneer Medical and MD Solutions; ando the Group reached agreement to acquire LifeHealthcare, which will establish EBOS as a leading distributor of medical devices in Australia, New Zealand and South East Asia.
• Commenced the commissioning phase of our new state of the art pet food manufacturing facility in Parkes, NSW.

A$1 Underlying Results Statutory ResultsTotal Revenue $5,250.9m up 12.8% $5,250.9m up 12.8%
EBITDA $207.7m up 12.8% $199.9m up 9.7%
EBIT $169.1m up 14.4% $161.3m up 10.6%
Net Profit after Tax $109.3m up 15.8% $101.9m up 9.7%
Earnings per Share 66.6 cents up 15.2% 61.4 cents up 8.0%
Operating cash flow n/a $106.8m up 8.1%
ROCE 18.2% up 0.7% n/aNet Debt :
EBITDA2 1.28x up 0.28x n/a
Interim Dividend n/a NZ 47.0cps up 10.6

[alokdhir]

EBO has done it again ...its showing consistent growth and strong outlook ....this growth stock still performing .

[ratkin]

Always delivers, never lost any sleep over this one

[Snow Leopard]

Always delivers, never lost any sleep over this one

Likewise:
https://i0.wp.com/farm4.static.flickr.com/3467/3276202413_667a4fca34.jpg?resize=500%2C375
Not losing sleep: (https://snowleopard.org/snow-leopards-in-china/)

[Biscuit]

Always delivers, never lost any sleep over this one

Absolutely, some companies do the business year after year, and this is one of them.

[alokdhir]

Wow EBO almost 5% up today ...who says growth or high p/e stocks will not work in this market ....if u show consistent growth then market rewards with higher SP .

Holding so very delighted that its done so well in such environment too !

[winner69]

Wow EBO almost 5% up today ...who says growth or high p/e stocks will not work in this market ....if u show consistent growth then market rewards with higher SP .

Holding so very delighted that its done so well in such environment too !

Not really a high PE stock ..... on a weighted average number of share probably in mid to high 20's ....and the eps accretion of the recent acquisition hasn't really been price in yet (although no benefit to F23)

[Pixelator]

EBO into NZX10 Index, ATM out...

[Louloubell]

Nicely green today in my sea of red.

[Shareguy]

Ebos is one of the very few companies that have a long history of eps growth on the NZX. For me it’s a bottom draw share that commands a large position in my portfolio.

The current price in my view is no bargain but think $50 is a real possibility this year. You have to pay for quality and with the current acquisition I think well worth the current forward PE.

[Muse]

Nicely green today in my sea of red.

aye - went on rampage mode today - awesome!

[winner69]

EBO one of a few stocks not really been affected by the bear market

Share price up 22% over last 52 weeks ….that’s pretty awesome

Acquisitions been favourably received - shares been rerated

[Waltzing]

fully valued at the MO Winner(n->SP).

[Louloubell]

Yep, fully valued but a great long-term investment in this uncertain environment.

[winner69]

fully valued at the MO Winner(n->SP).

It was 'fully valued' a year ago

Share price UP 20% since then

In a years time share price will probably be close to 50 bucks - another +20% year

[Rawz]

It was 'fully valued' a year ago

Share price UP 20% since then

In a years time share price will probably be close to 50 bucks - another +20% year

Are we paying top dollar for top dollar thou?

[Waltzing]

winner(n) that is near perfection.

just saying how much longer can perfection continue.

Been an amazing run so far and of course "very profitable"

R Quest.

[winner69]

Are we paying top dollar for top dollar thou?

Don't think so

Currently trading PE of 28 on expected FY22 earnings and with growth profile this PE is sustainable

Lifehealthcare impact acquisition not totally recognised by market yet. Best part is Lifehealthcare margins are far superior than current EBOS margins so in total we should see improved margins from here on in ...that's the margin covered off

So even if paying top dollar for top dollar both PE and margin are sustainable

[Sideshow Bob]

Don't think so

Currently trading PE of 28 on expected FY22 earnings and with growth profile this PE is sustainable

Lifehealthcare impact acquisition not totally recognised by market yet. Best part is Lifehealthcare margins are far superior than current EBOS margins so in total we should see improved margins from here on in ...that's the margin covered off

So even if paying top dollar for top dollar both PE and margin are sustainable

13878

Pretty nice looking graph....

Always one of those companies that seems too expensive, but keeps on keeping on. Although is there a point where they "max out" and can't grow anymore, in NZ at least.

In the current environment, much of their business is recession-proof, or at least recession resilient. Health is one thing, but people will always spend on their pet.....

[winner69]

13878

Pretty nice looking graph....

Always one of those companies that seems too expensive, but keeps on keeping on. Although is there a point where they "max out" and can't grow anymore, in NZ at least.

In the current environment, much of their business is recession-proof, or at least recession resilient. Health is one thing, but people will always spend on their pet.....

NZ accounts for about 20% of revenues and Lifehealthcare gives them exposure in Asia

Best thing about that chart is that an EPS chart is the same shape ....over an extended period of time

[Rawz]

EBO close to 200 ema again. A fortnight ago it bounced off it. How about that for some technical analysis lol

[winner69]

EBO close to 200 ema again. A fortnight ago it bounced off it. How about that for some technical analysis lol

Brilliant :t_up::t_up::t_up::t_up::t_up:

[Rawz]

just wondering if EBO will fall into a downtrend like its better hotter sister MFT..

EBO trading on a hefty multiple as well.

One to watch i guess

[alokdhir]

EBO is our shatetrader forum pick also ...alongwith Craigs and Forbar ...

Why its languishing around support for long ? Results round the corner with many analysts positive

I am looking forward to 24th August for a great result

[ratkin]

EBO is our shatetrader forum pick also ...alongwith Craigs and Forbar ...

Why its languishing around support for long ? Results round the corner with many analysts positive

I am looking forward to 24th August for a great result

It has performed better than most during the downturn. Had a steller run up, so a year or Two of sideways is not the end of the world.

[alokdhir]

It has performed better than most during the downturn. Had a steller run up, so a year or Two of sideways is not the end of the world.

I think market will appreciate its value again after its results on 24th ...its the most docile stock in this down trend ...even its June lows were just below where its is now ...so has scope to move up till 42 +

[winner69]

Th market doesn't appear to have ascribed the value of the LifeHealthcare acquisition yet

Something with much higher margins than EBO been used to - could be a game changer

Hopefully get an update on what they expect for F23 - only had LifrHealthcare for a month or so

[alokdhir]

Th market doesn't appear to have ascribed the value of the LifeHealthcare acquisition yet

Something with much higher margins than EBO been used to - could be a game changer

Hopefully get an update on what they expect for F23 - only had LifrHealthcare for a month or so

As always U r spot on ...see analysts future financial calls this year 239 M NPAT and next 315 M ....big jump in margins also

I think its a great buy now before results and then market wakes up

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/EBOS-GROUP-LIMITED-6494459/financials/

May jump 10% on results day

[Waltzing]

The High P/E with inflation up may limit the bounces..

but that increase in NPAT is material for sure...

[Sideshow Bob]

Full Year Results - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/397494)

EBOS’ STRONG PERFORMANCE HAS CONTINUED WITH ANOTHER RECORD RESULT AND DOUBLE-DIGIT EARNINGS GROWTHFull Year Highlights

• Revenue of $10.7 billion, exceeding $10 billion for the first time (up 16.6%)
• Underlying Net Profit after Tax (“Underlying NPAT”)of $228.2 million (up 21.3%)o $25.6 million of M&A transaction costs (post-tax) were incurred in Statutory NPAT
• Final dividend declared of NZ 49.0 cents per share, bringing total dividends declared for the year to NZ 96.0 cents per share (up 8.5%)
• Continued strong performances from both our Healthcare and Animal Care segments, with Healthcare’s Underlying EBIT up 24.0% and Animal Care’s EBIT up 15.3%
• Underlying operating cash flow (before capex) of $291.0 million (down 3.7%) reflecting higher investment in working capital and tax payments
• Consistent with our strategy of investing for growth, in FY22 we: o continued to invest in our operational infrastructure across the Group to support the growth in the business; and o completed five acquisitions in a further expansion of our Institutional Healthcare division, including the material acquisition of LifeHealthcare which establishes EBOS as one of the largest independent medical device distributors in Australia, New Zealand and SoutheastAsia
• LifeHealthcare performed in line with expectations during June 2022, the first month under EBOS’ ownership, contributing $9.5 million of EBITDA
• Net Debt : EBITDA of 1.94x (0.85x at June 2021), reflecting our recent investments and remaining within the Group’s target gearing range

[ratkin]

Never let us down. Steady as she goes

[winner69]

Analysts just don’t get

Ebos lifted profit 21% in FY22 but analysts are asking how long it can last

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/ebos-lifted-profit-21-in-fy22-but-analysts-are-asking-how-long-it-can-last

May be psywalled

[ratkin]

Analysts just don’t get

Ebos lifted profit 21% in FY22 but analysts are asking how long it can last

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/ebos-lifted-profit-21-in-fy22-but-analysts-are-asking-how-long-it-can-last

May be psywalled

The company said last year that covid was/is fairly neutral for them, maybe very slightly beneficial but certainly no FPH situation.

[Snow Leopard]

Dividends appear to be almost completely unimputated.
Perhaps they should shift HQ to Oz?

[peat]

looks good but that pesky statutory net profit not up so much. the difference is M+A so I guess thats like an investment really innit? given their record i guess thats ok...

mind the GAAP.

[Louloubell]

I topped up on Ebos and am surprised that I got them so cheaply. Wake up market!

[alokdhir]

I topped up on Ebos and am surprised that I got them so cheaply. Wake up market!

How cheap was that ?

[Louloubell]

More than the low of the day!! Around $38.50

[alokdhir]

More than the low of the day!! Around $38.50

Its been here for last few months now ...even great results could not move it ....some big transfers going on ...see todays volume almost 800K ...

[winner69]

EBO share price back over $40

After the good result and people realising LifeHealth going to create a step change in profitability from F23 onwards we should see share price marching on to $50 next year sometime

[ratkin]

EBO share price back over $40

After the good result and people realising LifeHealth going to create a step change in profitability from F23 onwards we should see share price marching on to $50 next year sometime

That aged well
������

[winner69]

That aged well
������

No worries at end of day :t_up:

[Muse]

No worries at end of day :t_up:

Did you chuck in the closing trade? :)

[winner69]

EBO share price back over $40

After the good result and people realising LifeHealth going to create a step change in profitability from F23 onwards we should see share price marching on to $50 next year sometime

Jeez that was only a month ago

Way share price is dropping it could be in the $35's

Surely not ... time to buy more methinks

[Waltzing]

yes Winner() ! its those high P/E's at work again when the world wobbles on its axes...

[winner69]

yes Winner() ! its those high P/E's at work again when the world wobbles on its axes...

PE only 20 times F23 forecast …..not expensive, esp when earnings forecast to be 40% higher this year than last year

[Waltzing]

W() its paying a low yield... and its a high risk world....

[Rawz]

EBO close to 200 ema again. A fortnight ago it bounced off it. How about that for some technical analysis lol

Just updating my TA on EBO.. 50 day crossed below the 200 last week. Not good

will report back in due course :scared:

[ratkin]

Anybody here go to the AGM like to give a brief overview?

It ok, just seen the presentation is out. All sounds good as usual. I see the new pet food factory is now running 24 hours a day, always a positive sign.

Strong start to the next reporting period, all very much business as usual.

[winner69]

Yep Ratkin - great start to year

For the three months ended 30 September 2022, the Group recorded revenue of approximately $3.0 billion and Underlying EBITDA of approximately $142 million.

This reflects double-digit organic growth compared to the prior corresponding period as well as
contribution from acquisitions completed in FY22

Cant domuch better than that - forecast EPS of $1.70 might be on the light side

Heck - double digit organic growth and LifeHealth to be added - all for $37 bucks on a PE of about 20

[Rawz]

Forward P/E of 20 about right isnt it? Well in this market anyway. Isnt the ROE too low for anything higher? I remember you used to say ROE too low W69

[winner69]

Forward P/E of 20 about right isnt it? Well in this market anyway. Isnt the ROE too low for anything higher? I remember you used to say ROE too low W69

Think I said EBO ROE were lower than say FPH and as such would deserve PE multiples in the 40's or something like

Main thing is EBO always return a decent amount their total cost of capital .... and the next few years are looking good

[Waltzing]

After the sub tables in HLG Financial reports not adding up properly how do you know the information from the databases is accurate.

Huge organisation and the data can be imperfect.

P/E are useless if the information isn accurate and people use different methods of P/E calculations.

[alokdhir]

EBO star of the day ...seems like some informed buying ...Buyer at 39.80 of 110,000 shares ....

whats happening guys ? any news ??

[Rawz]

People finally waking up to what W69 has been banging on for months about

Its a buy!

[ratkin]

Whats going on, most unusual. Whoever is buying not picked the best day for it. They been on sale for Months.
Unless there some new developments we don't know about.

Being hugely overweight in EBOS means it is good to see.

[winner69]

No comment today

Last time I gave EBO a rave the share price went back to 36 bucks:eek2:

[Muse]

she's a fine company alright

been one of the more resilient companies on the exchange

[alokdhir]

This is not a NORMAL day for EBO ...It was a fine and great company all along ...Something SPECIAL going on ...maybe will know after the event ...thats how media works for stock markets !!!

[winner69]

In the media -

The company has been admitted into an MSCI small cap index, which triggers a raft of passive buying, said Brad Gordon, director and senior investment adviser at Hobson Wealth Partners

[iceman]

In the media -

The company has been admitted into an MSCI small cap index, which triggers a raft of passive buying, said Brad Gordon, director and senior investment adviser at Hobson Wealth Partners

That explains the unusual trading today. Thanks for that winner.

[Muse]

mystery solved. cannot add to your reputation w69 as apparently I already said a good thing about you.

[CrustyPlums]

I popped in here to see what was going on. I knew you fellas would know what was up. Thanks winner69:)

[ratkin]

Into the MSCI global small companies index. Out goes Synlait which explains its fall yesterday, but nowhere near as volatile as EBOS.

[JSwan]

Can anyone post the MSCI additions and deletions, can’t find it on the MSCI website

[winner69]

Can anyone post the MSCI additions and deletions, can’t find it on the MSCI website

My mate shareguy put this up on the place

https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/smallcap/MSCI_Nov22_SCPublicList.pdf

[Sideshow Bob]

My mate shareguy put this up on the place

https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/smallcap/MSCI_Nov22_SCPublicList.pdf

Hard to understand Ebos being added and Synlait taken out? What is the criteria - can't be size/market cap?

[iceman]

Hard to understand Ebos being added and Synlait taken out? What is the criteria - can't be size/market cap?

No not only market cap. Free float of shares is also considered and I suppose ATM ownership of Synlait is not "free float" !

"Methodology and the MSCI Small Cap Index Series
The MSCI Small Cap Index Series adjusts the market capitalization of index constituents for free float and targets for index inclusion 40% of the full market capitalization of the eligible small cap universe within each industry group in each country. Currently, MSCI calculates the Small Cap Index Series for 23 countries in the developed markets. The market capitalization range that defines the small cap universe is USD 200 – 1,500 million in terms of the company’s full market capitalization. This Methodology Book describes MSCI’s index construction objectives, guiding principles, and the methodology for the Small Cap Index Series. Certain specific aspects of MSCI’s Small Cap Index Series methodology are treated in appendices at the end of the Methodology Book. Any updates for the methodology will be posted on the web site www.mscibarra.com . Other useful methodology guidelines can be found in the same link."

[alokdhir]

That shud keep it buoyant till 30th Nov at least ....erratic , market disconnected moves possible ...may spike off and on !

As this up move is not actually connected with its fundamentals but technicals so maybe we shud take advantage of this to get out if suits ?

[RTM]

"To get out if it suits"....looking back one of my biggest mistakes was selling EBOS a couple of times. The first time I did particularly well..only to buy them back at a cent more. The second time was to reduce my portfolio %, again a mistake.
Anyway....for those who might miss it...this is worth having a look through.
Happy holder here. 3.3% of our portfolio.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/EBO/402434/383541.pdf



That shud keep it buoyant till 30th Nov at least ....erratic , market disconnected moves possible ...may spike off and on !

As this up move is not actually connected with its fundamentals but technicals so maybe we shud take advantage of this to get out if suits ?

[winner69]

Jenny Ruth at BusinessDesk says Ebos may keep the Chemist Warehouse contract

I say Ebos will return the contract and may even pick up another one with Chemist Warehouse (the FMCG one)

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/infrastructure/ebos-may-keep-the-chemist-warehouse-contract
Possibly paywalled

[ratkin]

Results day !!

Go EBOS

[Sideshow Bob]

Here you go Ratkin....good looking numbers.


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/407107

Half-Year Highlights

• Revenue of $6.1 billion (up 17.0%)
• Underlying EBITDA of $289.2 million (up 39.3%)
• Underlying NPATof $141.6 million (up 29.6%)
• Underlying EPS of 74.5 cents (up 12.0%)
• Interim dividend declared of NZ 53.0 cents per share (up 12.8%)
• Continued strong performances from both our Healthcare and Animal Care segments:
o Healthcare Underlying EBITDA up 37.6% driven by organic growth and contribution fromacquisitions completed in FY22. LifeHealthcare performed in-line with expectationso Animal Care EBITDA up 31.5% reflecting strong market conditions and benefits of theinvestment in our pet food manufacturing facility
• Net Debt : EBITDA of 1.76x (1.94x at June 2022) reflecting a strong cash flow performance

[Rawz]

Impressive stuff. what a great company. wish i held

[Rawz]

obviously hit markets expectation as the SP hasnt moved on the open?

[percy]

Here you go Ratkin....good looking numbers.


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/407107

Half-Year Highlights

• Revenue of $6.1 billion (up 17.0%)
• Underlying EBITDA of $289.2 million (up 39.3%)
• Underlying NPATof $141.6 million (up 29.6%)
• Underlying EPS of 74.5 cents (up 12.0%)
• Interim dividend declared of NZ 53.0 cents per share (up 12.8%)
• Continued strong performances from both our Healthcare and Animal Care segments:
o Healthcare Underlying EBITDA up 37.6% driven by organic growth and contribution fromacquisitions completed in FY22. LifeHealthcare performed in-line with expectationso Animal Care EBITDA up 31.5% reflecting strong market conditions and benefits of theinvestment in our pet food manufacturing facility
• Net Debt : EBITDA of 1.76x (1.94x at June 2022) reflecting a strong cash flow performance

Ebos just keeps on keeping on.
Well done to holders.

[ratkin]

Ebos just keeps on keeping on.
Well done to holders.

One day we may be disappointed, Have there ever been any nasty surprises? I don't remember any and have been a holder for decades now.
Must be the most reliable stock on the exchange. Should have been a core holding in everyones portfolio.

[Bjauck]

obviously hit markets expectation as the SP hasnt moved on the open? It’s currently the 6th best performing stock out of the whole main board of the NZX. A pearl amongst swine?

[Louloubell]

The market must have thought it was a swine this morning, but has changed its mind.

[ratkin]

Added to the ASX 300 From March 20, will likely be some buyer pressure for a few weeks

[ratkin]

Anyone know whats happening with the chemist warehouse contract?

[winner69]

Anyone know whats happening with the chemist warehouse contract?

Know later on today by looks of it


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/EBO/412564/395946.pdf

Hope all OK ..been nothing AFR so that’s good

[percy]

Know later on today by looks of it


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/EBO/412564/395946.pdf

Hope all OK ..been nothing AFR so that’s good

The EBO share price has been in decline since the beginning of April.
Now below both the 90 day and 180 day moving averages.

[Fuzzy Dunlop]

Yikes - it looks like its gone, and not looking promising for a future reversion - https://www.afr.com/street-talk/sigma-healthcare-wins-ebos-s-2b-chemist-warehouse-contract-sources-20230606-p5de8v

[percy]

Yikes - it looks like its gone, and not looking promising for a future reversion - https://www.afr.com/street-talk/sigma-healthcare-wins-ebos-s-2b-chemist-warehouse-contract-sources-20230606-p5de8v
Sigma Healthcare Limited (Sigma) is pleased to announce it has signed a binding term sheet with
Chemist Warehouse for the supply of both Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) medicines and
Fast-Moving-Consumer-Goods (FMCG) product for a period of five years commencing on 1 July
2024.
Sigma is the incumbent supplier for FMCG product which currently represents approximately 29% of
Sigma Group net sales revenue. Under the terms of the new supply agreement, the current FMCG
contract will be renewed, and Sigma will secure the additional supply of PBS medicines to Chemist
Warehouse. Sigma estimates that total sales of products to Chemist Warehouse will generate a
minimum of $3 billion in revenue in the first full year of the contract.
Sigma CEO Vikesh Ramsunder commented: “The decision by Chemist Warehouse to award Sigma
this supply contract is wonderful news for our company and our shareholders. The contract allows
us to leverage our highly automated distribution centres and latent spare capacity after multiple
years of investment. We thank Chemist Warehouse for their confidence in our service capability
and awarding of the contract.”
The consideration to be provided by Sigma for the award of the supply agreement includes:
• The issue of Sigma shares to Chemist Warehouse at the start of the supply contract. The
shares to be issued to Chemist Warehouse will represent approximately 10.7% (post
issuance) of Sigma’s issued share capital and will be issued with a value of $0.642 per
share. This share placement helps align both parties’ long-term strategic interests.
• A right for Chemist Warehouse to acquire certain non-core assets from Sigma, which assets
have a value of $24.5 million. If Chemist Warehouse chooses not to acquire those assets,
then Sigma will make a net cash payment to Chemist Warehouse of $24.5 million.
Once fully implemented the terms of the supply contract are anticipated to support Sigma’s mediumterm EBIT margin guidance of 1.5% to 2.5%. With the current agreement continuing until June
2024, there is no impact on Sigma’s existing FY24 EBIT guidance of $26 million to $31 million.
“Sigma has worked tirelessly the past 12 months to build a stronger company and to significantly
improve our operational performance for the benefit of all customers. Securing this Chemist
Warehouse contract means we will now have real scale and momentum moving into the future,’’ Mr
Ramsunder said.

[winner69]

Best part of $100m ‘incentive’ to give contract to Sigma by looks of it

No wonder Ebos lost it

[Rawz]

SP be back into the $30s?. Hope so.. would like to buy back into these

[Muse]

BOE - does the announcement imply contract was worth v roughly $57m EBITDA? We know the sales are 1.9b but tried to infer the bottom line. They make reference to pro forma net debt to EBITDA of 2.0x excluding the contract as at 31 Dec 22. That number including the contract per the HY announcement was 1.76x and net debt was $835.7m (same per the HY result, ex leases). LTM underlying EBITDA including contract therefore $476 (837.5/1.76), excluding contract $419m (837.5/2), difference between the two should be the contract ($57m), equating to a contribution margin of 3% (57m / 1.9bn total sales). that about right?

[Sideshow Bob]

SP be back into the $30s?. Hope so.. would like to buy back into these

$38.00 on lifting of the trading halt....so about $660m off market cap.....

[Rawz]

Wow SP getting punished!

Long run 200dma is about $32

[Sideshow Bob]

Wow SP getting punished!

Long run 200dma is about $32

Heading that way.....$35.60......:scared:

[Rawz]

Nice recovery in the afternoon.

[whatsup]

Were the Chemist Warehouse contracts open for tender or what ?

[RTM]

Nice recovery in the afternoon.

Yes....it's good that they have more than one arrow in the quiver....diversified springs to mind.....unlike PEB.
Still, its disappointing, but I guess evidence that they were perhaps not chasing the contract at any price.
Wonder what went on behind closed doors ? They must have been all over it...surely.

[Rawz]

Yes....it's good that they have more than one arrow in the quiver....diversified springs to mind.....unlike PEB.
Still, its disappointing, but I guess evidence that they were perhaps not chasing the contract at any price.
Wonder what went on behind closed doors ? They must have been all over it...surely.

Based on what the other crowd offered I dont think EBO had a chance. Sometimes its okay to let go of a major customer. No point in doing it for free!

Waaaaay back in the day when i left uni 2008 I did 12 months at Lumley insurance before moving into the finance/banking world. I remember Lumley lost the Co-Op taxi account they held for years and years and years to Zurich insurance. The Lumley guys were laughing because Zurich quoted such a low premium rate that they knew it was not going to make a profit and barely break even. They were happy to let it go... anyways 2 years later i heard Lumley won the account back because Zurich under staffed the allocated claims managers and therefore Co-Op received very poor service. Co-op in the end were happy to pay more to go back to Lumley

[Grimy]

Hopefully KFL bought a few today if they had some spare cash and still see good value. I hope so as it's the only way I can afford to get into EBOS at the moment.

[alokdhir]

I reckon Craigs not positive on EBOS anymore ...as they feel this amount of revenue and profits hard to replace easily in this low margin business . So dont know what KFL people will be thinking ...but they do think longer term then Craigs people ...

[RTM]

Based on what the other crowd offered I dont think EBO had a chance. Sometimes its okay to let go of a major customer. No point in doing it for free!

Waaaaay back in the day when i left uni 2008 I did 12 months at Lumley insurance before moving into the finance/banking world. I remember Lumley lost the Co-Op taxi account they held for years and years and years to Zurich insurance. The Lumley guys were laughing because Zurich quoted such a low premium rate that they knew it was not going to make a profit and barely break even. They were happy to let it go... anyways 2 years later i heard Lumley won the account back because Zurich under staffed the allocated claims managers and therefore Co-Op received very poor service. Co-op in the end were happy to pay more to go back to Lumley

Good story.....its a big hole to fill tho. Surprised shareprice didn't dip a wee bit more.
" EBOS currently generates approximately $1.9 billion in revenue annually from the contract and will continue to perform
services under the contract until the expiry date."

[silverblizzard888]

Good story.....its a big hole to fill tho. Surprised shareprice didn't dip a wee bit more.
" EBOS currently generates approximately $1.9 billion in revenue annually from the contract and will continue to perform
services under the contract until the expiry date."

Given Chemist Warehouse is a low cost pharmacy, the market probably interprets that EBOS supply's them at a very low margin, so even if they lose the contract, the chances that it effects the bottom-line in a big way may be quite small. Market considers that the $1.9 billion may have generated about $25 million NPAT

[Rawz]

I assume EBO lease large warehouses all over the place holding Chemist Warehouse product. Tons of employees solely employed to service the contract. Not only the $25m NPAT they will lease but the burden of what to do with the infrastructure they have to serve such a large contract. Do i have this right? Anyone with industry knowledge able to comment

[percy]

Given Chemist Warehouse is a low cost pharmacy, the market probably interprets that EBOS supply's them at a very low margin, so even if they lose the contract, the chances that it effects the bottom-line in a big way may be quite small. Market considers that the $1.9 billion may have generated about $25 million NPAT

For SIG Sigma it is a game changer.For EBO it is a bit of a bugger.Only problem is EBO has been priced for perfection.
Even at $37.38 the PE is 28.42 and the yield is a very modest 2.73%.

[Sideshow Bob]

For SIG Sigma it is a game changer.For EBO it is a bit of a bugger.Only problem is EBO has been priced for perfection.
Even at $37.38 the PE is 28.42 and the yield is a very modest 2.73%.

Indeed "priced for perfection". But some companies always are....locally especially when I look at Ebos but also Mainfreight and FPH. I've looked at them often, but never had a major holding in any of them.

No doubt EBO has served you well Percy. 20 years ago is was trading at $2.51, 10 years ago at $8.64, 5 years ago at $18.40, 2 years ago at $33.20. Probably all looked expensive then. (the graph is actually something to behold).

All these companies have had significant growth in markets, revenue and profit over this time. Just a question when the music stops and they get to the end of their growth runway.....??

I've seen the term "value trap" used on here a little - I know that I've fallen in a few of them - companies where their PE looks too attractive, NTA much higher than their price. But most of these are badly run, poorly governed and do little to generate return for the (minority) investor. I guess the likes of EBO, MFT, FPH have been priced to perfection for a reason - the question then becomes about paying too much. Obviously yesterday some investors took the chance to get in at a lower level.

In terms of Ebos, the Chemist Warehouse loss is a blow, but operate in largely defensive industries, more immune to consumer spending downturns, and higher ability to pass on inflationary costs.

[Muse]

I agree a bugger indeed for EBO - I sold out early and entirely at the commencement of trading yesterday.
It was and remains a fine company. Part of the issue as I see it was the CW contract was one of the pistons firing EBO's growth, growing at a CAGR of about +20% since 2020. And from the call I see my initial estimate of 3% contribution margin was a touch on the light side it was more like 3.5%.
The contract remains in place for a period of time and there will be an inventory unwind that will release some cash. None the less the growth and dividend profile are substantially reduced and the questionable if the remaining residual premium the company is trading on remains justified (at least in my view).

This together with PEB highlight an issue often overlooked...customer or distribution channel concentration. EBO mgmt. have done an excellent job in my view of building out the rest of the business and lowering customer concentration so that fact the SP only fell as far as it has is a testament to the strategy put in place over the years. And with CW gone the customer concentration issue is further diminished. PEB heavily reliant on its distribution in America and punished this morning. There are other very strongly performing companies on the NZX with similar customer or distribution channel concentrations & something to keep an eye on.

in some respects the loss of the contract could highlight prudent contract ma by EBO. Distribution a low margin business and capital intensive and mgmt have their ROIC targets, so no point chasing and winning work at ROIC's below WACC. Sounds like Sigma really went for it and their is already speculation in the AFR on if this could be a prelude to something bigger associated with the owners of Chemist Warehouse (ie merger, reverse listing, etc).

all the best to EBO and its holders. a fine company & been a marvelous investment. perhaps return one day.

[Rawz]

Traditionally it looks like EBO has traded on a high teens P/E.

Year P/E
2014 16.07
2015 14.48
2016 19.47
2017 19.22
2018 18.23
2019 22.78
2020 19.38

Avg= 18.51
SP at this level = 18.51*146.43eps (FY22)= $27.10sp

[winner69]

Hey Rawz

Just for you EBO share price and EPS since 2007 (pre Masterpet)

Over that time average PE has been about 19 (maybe 18 up to 2021)

I've put some forecast EPS numbers in for F23/F24/F25

So maybe share price will hang around $35 for a year or two ....maybe go a bit lower then back to $35 next year.

No doubt they will 'expediate' the next acquisition - hopefully another one like LifeHealthCare with its higher margins

[Rawz]

Hey Rawz

Just for you EBO share price and EPS since 2007 (pre Masterpet)

Over that time average PE has been about 19 (maybe 18 up to 2021)

I've put some forecast EPS numbers in for F23/F24/F25

So maybe share price will hang around $35 for a year or two ....maybe go a bit lower then back to $35 next year.

No doubt they will 'expediate' the next acquisition - hopefully another one like the last one with higher margins

Awesome chart.

That blue line really got ahead of itself.

Back to trend now (just like MHJ/HLG lol)

[kiwikeith]

Quality company with quality management. Yes losing the contract with CW looks like a big blow. But based on past experience, I believe those shareholders willing to ride out the storm will be better off in 5-6 years than they are now.

[ratkin]

Anyone know whats happening with the chemist warehouse contract?

when I asked this question had a bad feeling about the contract, had read the other company were going to push them hard. Thought Ebos would retain it due to being so well run, but expected less favourable terms.

Sadly didnt sell any until after the announcement but it has been a wonderful investment. Main reason I have sold most (not all) my shares is not so much because of the contract, but because I am a little concerned about the animal division.

Bunnings going into petfood, and the fact that with a recession looming, premium petfood like EBOS sells could be one of the first sacrifices any budgeting family would make.

When I can park my proceeds in a term deposit at nearly 6% while awaiting developments then it made little sense to hold. However I would not be surprised if EBOS finds some good aquisitions etc as they remain a very good company, which is why I did not totally sell out, and will almost certainly re enter at some point.

Im a bit gutted, but if someone had told me Twenty years ago that I would be selling my shares for 38 dollars each I would have been overjoyed.

[winner69]

This guy reckons EBO could get in ASX200;soon ..that be good

https://arichlife.com.au/10-stocks-that-could-soon-enter-the-sp-asx-200-index/

[Snow Leopard]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/413971

The amorphous mass that is Blackrock becomes a SSH, but their Singapore bit owns less than me :)

[winner69]

Shareprice closes $38.00 today

Steadily getting back to 40 bucks plus

[ratkin]

South Island's Pet Central in Liquidation: multiple branch close, staff layoffs, concerns for animals left behind — Chris Lynch Newsroom (chrislynchmedia.com) (https://www.chrislynchmedia.com/news-items/staff-left-angry-and-upset-after-pet-central-stores-go-into-liquidation?fbclid=IwAR0K-Y4x9F63nZ_NeDyTeDNPnPktkoaotxzjg_qBsOBabayJvlLWPmP IDlg)

Animal sector starting to struggle as people rein in their spending.

[winner69]

South Island's Pet Central in Liquidation: multiple branch close, staff layoffs, concerns for animals left behind — Chris Lynch Newsroom (chrislynchmedia.com) (https://www.chrislynchmedia.com/news-items/staff-left-angry-and-upset-after-pet-central-stores-go-into-liquidation?fbclid=IwAR0K-Y4x9F63nZ_NeDyTeDNPnPktkoaotxzjg_qBsOBabayJvlLWPmP IDlg)

Animal sector starting to struggle as people rein in their spending.

They did blame Animates …unable to compete

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/416863

Full Year Highlights
• Results underpinned by organic growth and substantial contribution from prior yearacquisitions reflecting the defensive and diversified nature of Group earnings
• Revenue of $12.2 billion (up 14.0%)• Underlying EBITDA of $582.0 million (up 33.2%)
• Underlying NPATof $281.8 million (up 23.0%)
• Underlying EPS of 147.9 cents (up 14.1%)
• Final dividend declared of NZ 57.0 cents per share, bringing total dividends declared for theyear to NZ 110.0 cents per share (up 14.6%)
• Continued strong performances from both our Healthcare and Animal Care segments:o Healthcare Underlying EBITDA up 32.7% driven by organic growth and the contributionfrom acquisitions completed in FY22;
LifeHealthcare performed in-line with expectationso Animal Care Underlying EBITDA up 24.0% reflecting strong organic growth in our keybrands and the benefits from the investment in our new pet food manufacturing facility
• Underlying operating cash flow of $404.7 million (up 39.1%) reflecting strong earnings growthand disciplined net working capital management
• Consistent with our strategy of investing for growth we:o completed the acquisition of Superior Pet Food Co. (Superior) on 31 July 2023, a leadingmanufacturer and supplier of premium dog rolls based in New Zealand; ando continued to invest in our operational infrastructure to support our growth
• Net Debt : EBITDA of 1.52x (1.94x at June 2022); strong balance sheet to support growth1

[winner69]

Ebos profits up nearly 10% in Q1 of new year

That’s good

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/EBO/420409/405653.pdf

[Sideshow Bob]

One-third of Ebos revenue linked to Aust pharmacy policy, analyst warns (https://businessdesk.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=786ac0b2dc4f2240875208882&id=06c84fefc2&e=3b6f9185d3)

Business Desk - paywalled

[percy]

EBOS has requested a trading halt in light of media speculation regarding EBO and its potential interest in Greencross.

I take that as Greencross Vets in Australia,not Green Cross Health in NZ.

[Sideshow Bob]

Yep - Greencross Pet Wellness

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421812

[kiora]

Owned by ?
"TPG Capital
The company is wholly owned by TPG Capital, an American investment company"

Do they really know what they're getting into?

[percy]

Owned by ?
"TPG Capital
The company is wholly owned by TPG Capital, an American investment company"

Do they really know what they're getting into?

Ebos and Greencross each own half of Animates.
From Ebos annual report page 79.
Animates NZ Holdings Limited Animal Care December 2011 50% 17,353

The reporting date for Animates NZ Holdings Limited is 30 June. Animates NZ Holdings Limited is incorporated in New Zealand.
Although the company holds 50% of the shares and voting power in Animates NZ Holdings Limited, this entity is not deemed to be
a subsidiary as the other 50% is held by a single shareholder, therefore EBOS is unable to exercise control over this entity

[Sideshow Bob]

Got its own Wiki page

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greencross

[bull....]

australian saying there lining up a capital raise for aquisition

[winner69]

Ebos had no problem raising $840m capital for Life Healthcare.

Small discount at $34.50

And share price headed up to $45 odd

Will need a decent cap raise for this acquisition

Maybe at $36.50 this time. Even Sybil's will probably take part

And the share price wil head back to $45/$50 when it's plain to see the profits coming through as expected

All good stuff eh

[winner69]

Good thing acquiring another petcare business is that petcare margins are a lot higher than health

H123 showed petcare ebitda margin ~17% v healthcare ~4%

More petcare will help overall group margin …good stuff

[winner69]

In 2011 after Ebos forked out $109m and acquired Masterpet as a means of expanding beyond healthcare many market watchers said what 'surely not ..."what the heck, pet food of all things" reaction was that Masterpet seemed to hold the shareprice back before punters realised it was a pretty good deal.

The Masterpet CEO was quoted at the time " Ebos is a great fit for our staff, our customers and our suppliers.

Together we share many of the core competencies required to be successful in a market focused on health professionals, whether that's pets or people, doctors or veterinarians."

And the rest is history

Animalcare revenues now are A$560m and A$100m ebitda and the to be acquisition is a big step change on this

[winner69]

Greencross was a Sharetrader favourite once but ended up as a dog

PE probably sorted them out and now a great company

The old Sharetrader Greencross thread

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4900-GXL-Greencross-Limited-Veterinarians&p=1029945#post1029945

[warthog]

Greencross was a Sharetrader favourite once but ended up as a dog

PE probably sorted them out and now a great company

The old Sharetrader Greencross thread

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4900-GXL-Greencross-Limited-Veterinarians&p=1029945#post1029945

Thanks for the commentary Winner69. Agree that if this is proceeding and the price is reasonable, it's positive for EBO which is significant in the current climate especially post CWH contract loss.

[winner69]

Trading hat extended

What’s the latest gossip from AFR or The Australian?

[Muse]

Trading hat extended

What’s the latest gossip from AFR or The Australian?

Per the aussie gossip rags
* EBOS to acquire Greencross for $3.75 billion (currency not stipuated)
* EBOS will seek to raise almost $2bn at a 12% discount to the theoretical ex price
* Given size of issue expected some of Greencross' shareholders will roll in aside management & become holders in EBOS
* Zuellig understood to be supportive & tip into rights issue
* Greencross has 150 vet cliinics and book $1.6bn in revenue and $83m npat in the 12 months to 30 June according to ASIC reports

[mike2020]

That does seem like a crap margin on purchase price, 2.215% npat. What is the upside?

[Muse]

That does seem like a crap margin on purchase price, 2.215% npat. What is the upside?

Best to wait and see the actual docs before drawing any conclusions imo

[Muse]

No dice, nothing to see here. AFT street talk wrong.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422075

[Entrep]

That does seem like a crap margin on purchase price, 2.215% npat. What is the upside?

Yeah, wondered what I was missing. Imagine what WHS would be valued at based on this! lol

[bull....]

end of deal anyway they say currently ebitda tracking 8.8% up ytd and revenue up similar last 4 mths

[JSwan]

end of deal anyway they say currently ebitda tracking 8.8% up ytd and revenue up similar last 4 mths

Yeah but what about with no chemist warehouse contract 😂

[peat]

I'm starting to take notice of the price of this quality stock. But it still isn't cheap...

As per their history they're trying to do deals, grow. Ok so this one didnt work out but they're thinking forward and thinking big.
But also, they're prepared to dilute us shareholders too along the way. Is that the price we have to pay?

Solid growth over the long term. Figures are yearly for last ten years

14865

[bull....]

see on hotcopper there saying ebos might be interested in paragon care ... pgc

[percy]

Seems a bit odd going from Greencross $3,500 mil [$3.5 bil] down to a $145 mil PGC deal.?
PGC's revenue of $308 mil will not add much to EBO's $12.38 billion revenue.
If it goes through PGC must have an agency EBO want.But not a meaningful acquisition in my opinion.

[bull....]

Seems a bit odd going from Greencross $3,500 mil [$3.5 bil] down to a $145 mil PGC deal.?
PGC's revenue of $308 mil will not add much to EBO's $12.38 billion revenue.
If it goes through PGC must have an agency EBO want.But not a meaningful acquisition in my opinion.

Ebos needs to fill the gap chemist warehouse loss left. not many aquisition targets left in nz or aus for ebos to get.

[bull....]

sigma healthcare has announced merger with chemist warehouse

https://clients3.weblink.com.au/smallcaps/announcement.aspx?articleID=431742

potential big competitor to ebos now? ( now you know why chemist warehouse cancelled contract with ebos )

not many healthcare stocks in the space for ebos to replace chemist warehouse loss with .
sigma were interested in paragon care at one stage too . interesting times

[Sideshow Bob]

Nothing to the Paragon rumours.....

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/EBO/423503/409563.pdf

[audiav]

I wonder if there’s a bigger fish out there that could snap up EBO?

[audiav]

I wonder if there’s a bigger fish out there that could snap up EBO?

posed this question a few days ago in case anyone had any insights.
I’ve gone away and done some digging. On a very brief google search there doesn’t appear to be many big pharmaceutical distributors. A couple of listed US ones are Cardinal Health and AmerisourceBergen. This leads me to wonder if a few distributors are privately owned or listed but small.

Getting back to Ebos (disclosure: hold), I’ve been on the frontline or sideline for many years in dealing with some of their subsidiaries. From a customer focus they are blown off the park in NZ by a cooperative rival and multiple sites I know prefer dealing with the cooperative if they can. Makes me wonder what the total NZ market is ie what proportion they aren’t getting (though perhaps they are happy just retaining market share).

Their customer focus is always at the forefront of my mind when I ponder whether I continue to hold into the future. Though not a great reason for making financial decisions lol.

Another thing to consider are a lot of newer (expensive) drugs are MAB’s which usually require cold chain distribution. So being on top of the game for these will be important.

A graph I found of projected global pharmaceutical sales for 2026 has Oceania as the smallest area globally US19B. Southeast and East Asia (excludes China&Japan) third largest at US267B. (EU just above that US295B)That’s when I realised EBO is heading in the right direction if they keep chipping away in that part of the world.

So back to the question about whether a bigger fish could gobble up EBO, it’s theoretically possible though given the small size of current market, may become more attractive if it continues to make inroads in Asia?

[bull....]

posed this question a few days ago in case anyone had any insights.
I’ve gone away and done some digging. On a very brief google search there doesn’t appear to be many big pharmaceutical distributors. A couple of listed US ones are Cardinal Health and AmerisourceBergen. This leads me to wonder if a few distributors are privately owned or listed but small.

Getting back to Ebos (disclosure: hold), I’ve been on the frontline or sideline for many years in dealing with some of their subsidiaries. From a customer focus they are blown off the park in NZ by a cooperative rival and multiple sites I know prefer dealing with the cooperative if they can. Makes me wonder what the total NZ market is ie what proportion they aren’t getting (though perhaps they are happy just retaining market share).

Their customer focus is always at the forefront of my mind when I ponder whether I continue to hold into the future. Though not a great reason for making financial decisions lol.

Another thing to consider are a lot of newer (expensive) drugs are MAB’s which usually require cold chain distribution. So being on top of the game for these will be important.

A graph I found of projected global pharmaceutical sales for 2026 has Oceania as the smallest area globally US19B. Southeast and East Asia (excludes China&Japan) third largest at US267B. (EU just above that US295B)That’s when I realised EBO is heading in the right direction if they keep chipping away in that part of the world.

So back to the question about whether a bigger fish could gobble up EBO, it’s theoretically possible though given the small size of current market, may become more attractive if it continues to make inroads in Asia?

private equity own quite a few distributors.

i see ebos buying

EBOS increases its shareholding in Transmedic to 90%
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423790

the interesting thing to me and i know they have said they are not in discussions with paragon at this time is that transmedic operates pretty much in all the same countries as paragon.
So im still not ruling out ebos moving on paragon at some stage and merging both paragon and transmedic together to create a asia power centre.
the announcement in regard to paragon said at this point in time so it did not rule out the future. ebos had an interest in looking at paragon back in yr18

[Sideshow Bob]

https://thebull.com.au/18-share-tips-15-january-2024/

SELL – EBOS Group (EBO)
EBOS is an Australasian marketer, wholesaler and distributor of healthcare, medical and pharmaceutical products. It’s also an animal care brand owner, product marketer and distributor. In our view, the company operates in a highly competitive and relatively mature industry. We believe the shares are expensive at this point, so investors may want to consider taking a profit.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/426527

EBOS 2024 Half-Year Results

EBOS ACHIEVES STRONG GROWTH REFLECTING THE BENEFITS OF ITS DIVERSIFIEDPORTFOLIO

Half-Year Highlights
• Revenue of $6.6 billion (up 7.1%)
• Underlying EBITDA of $313.2 million (up 8.3%)
• Underlying NPATof $152.4 million (up 7.6%)
• Underlying EPS of 79.5 cents (up 6.6%)
• Interim dividend declared of NZ 57.0 cents per share (up 7.5%)
• Continued strong performances from both our Healthcare and Animal Care segments withHealthcare Underlying EBITDA up 8.0% and Animal Care Underlying EBITDA up 8.6%
• Stronger Group Underlying EBITDA growth of approximately 10% when normalised to excludethe Chemist Warehouse Australia contract
• Significant investments undertaken in the half, in line with our strategy of investing for growth:
o Increased shareholding in our Southeast Asian medical technology distribution business,Transmedic, to 90%
o Completed the acquisition of Superior Pet Food Co. (Superior), a leading New Zealandmanufacturer and supplier of premium dog rolls
o Capital expenditure of $66 million invested into our operational infrastructure
• ROCE increased by 70 bp to 15.1%, in line with target

[bull....]

private equity own quite a few distributors.

i see ebos buying

EBOS increases its shareholding in Transmedic to 90%


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423790

the interesting thing to me and i know they have said they are not in discussions with paragon at this time is that transmedic operates pretty much in all the same countries as paragon.
So im still not ruling out ebos moving on paragon at some stage and merging both paragon and transmedic together to create a asia power centre.
the announcement in regard to paragon said at this point in time so it did not rule out the future. ebos had an interest in looking at paragon back in yr18

good result I see they i saying looking at more growth options in sth east asia thru transmedic as i highlighted above paragon operates in the same markets be a natural fit with transmedic :eek2: hopefully they look at it

[bull....]

ah ebos missed the boat , paragon got a takeover offer last night will be a bigger competitor now for transmedic

[Filthy]

ah ebos missed the boat , paragon got a takeover offer last night will be a bigger competitor now for transmedic

its not really that clear whats happened yet..... a tiny paragraph hidden on page 6 of the PGC HY report, which just references a merger with CH2, but no detail on the transaction itself....

[bull....]

its not really that clear whats happened yet..... a tiny paragraph hidden on page 6 of the PGC HY report, which just references a merger with CH2, but no detail on the transaction itself....

no details because happened late yest and they accepted , so they be working out details today etc to announce at some stage

wonder if thats why ebos share down so much today

[Filthy]

no details because happened late yest and they accepted , so they be working out details today etc to announce at some stage

yep agree - would expect a TH until they release more info; think it could be read as a sale or an acquisition though? i.e. could be something similar to https://paragoncare.com.au/sites/default/files/2022-03/20220216-02_PGC_Implementation-of-Scheme_2341934.pdf - so PGC shareholders not necessarily going to receive a TO offer?

[bull....]

yep agree - would expect a TH until they release more info; think it could be read as a sale or an acquisition though? i.e. could be something similar to https://paragoncare.com.au/sites/default/files/2022-03/20220216-02_PGC_Implementation-of-Scheme_2341934.pdf - so PGC shareholders not necessarily going to receive a TO offer?

you could be right , if so your end up with shares in a bigger company so in theory should be better. and ebos end up with a bigger competitor in asia

[bull....]

there it is combined entity will be a 3.5billion company to take on transmedic

anyway i guess it opens up the possibilty of ebos buying the merged entity

[Filthy]

still needs a >50% vote in late May, subject to an independent & in absence of a 'superior proposal', so EBO could still gazump last min if they wanted. but yes, most likely is... they look at the larger entity (one day... once the dust settles).

[Filthy]

there it is combined entity will be a 3.5billion company to take on transmedic

PGC up 46% today on the news. great for punters eh bull. I wonder what EBOs think - reckon they will be watching closely....

[bull....]

PGC up 46% today on the news. great for punters eh bull. I wonder what EBOs think - reckon they will be watching closely....

yep nice gains ( i own pgc obviously lol ) , CH2 looks like a well run company and with there management taking over transmedic might have a bigger competitor now in the same markets.

[winner69]

Jeez EBO shareprice down to $33.59 ……lowest since mid 2021

Seems unloved at the moment

Time to buy some?