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Dazza
05-10-2007, 10:48 AM
Could someone display a TA chart for Ebos for me thanks?

bigcharts.com doesnt give me new zealand company charts.

Phaedrus a favour thanks?

Love your charts with the buy and sell signals eh

Dazza
05-10-2007, 11:25 AM
Cheers

anyone hold EBOS?

Ttops
05-10-2007, 12:02 PM
Could someone display a TA chart for Ebos for me thanks?

bigcharts.com doesnt give me new zealand company charts.

Phaedrus a favour thanks?

Love your charts with the buy and sell signals eh
Dazza
Try putting NZ:EBO instead of an AU stock code that displays what you want, then hit Draw chart logo next to it. Up comes a symbol lookup with NZ:EBO, then choose the go to Advanced chart button on the right and hopefully everything works with the existing setup you had for the AU chart. Good luck. It is one day behind as well. Worth persevering with but has driven me crazy at times. It may be that this doesn't work for you but I can get most of the common NZ companies. Good luck. :)

Phaedrus
05-10-2007, 12:03 PM
Here you go Dazza. Charts really don't come any simpler than this. We have a nice clear uptrend, with a confirmed trendline and trendline-break "Sell" signal. Then we have a nice clear downtrend with a confirmed trendline and trendline-break "Buy" signal. Now we have a new trendline in place, based on the lows of the current uptrend.

The OBV is interesting. Note how it continued to climb while EBO was in a downtrend for most of this year. EBO was being accumulated over this period. Note the activity of the "smart money" (green circles). Big players (who presumably know more than you and I) were buying-up large as the price fell. I don't think much of their timing, but their intent is of interest.

Some people will have ridden out this correction. No-one knew how far the downtrend would run, so to me it seems foolish to "tough it out". Why run the risk of it continuing on? In any case, there was money to be made by selling then buying back in again after the correction.

Note that EBO was one of the 16 stocks identified in the "Market Perspective" thread as a potential buying opportunity. This was based on the idea that you want a fundamentally sound stock that is in a "long-term" uptrend. You want it to have been in a "medium-term" downtrend of reasonable magnitude and you want that downtrend to have clearly ended. EBO meets all these conditions quite nicely, in my opinion.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/EBO105.gif

The chart includes today's latest price of $5.05. The Close may be different.

Dazza
09-10-2007, 09:12 PM
After two years of absence from the NZX, i have purchased my first shares since the NOG days of 2005.

Ebos - is the company that i have purchased today. I have been reading over their aquasition of PRNZ , i think this is a superb move by EBOS. The duolopy that pretty much existed has turned into a monolopy pharmacy wholesaler.

This is a LT share for me, in which i will happily buy on the dips when i start working in November.

Going to Dazzas retirement coffers this one it shall.

foodee
10-10-2007, 07:18 AM
Dazza
A good choice, but than I have to say that as a LT holder.
You being in/close to the industry will probably have a better insight
than the general investor.
Of course coporate play is always on the cards with the Stewart family's presence - not necessary good.



cheers

Dazza
10-10-2007, 10:10 AM
who are the stewarts family?

PRNZ has had about 3 different owners in the past 5 years or so. I am not surprised that the pharmacy brands division was not included into the sale, as PRNZ had outbid Life pharmacy a few months ago for that.

So glad Life pharmacy didnt buy the pharmacy brands though.

Pharmacy brands is the banner group to all the unichem/dispensary first/amcal pharmacies in new zealand.

I can see the business operations of PRNZ is good.

My only question mark is Ebos's management, however in saying that i do notice that Peter from PRNZ is now a director in Ebos which shores things up.

foodee, my questions i guess to you are: who are the stewart family? and whats your opinion of Ebos's management?

foodee
10-10-2007, 12:26 PM
foodee, my questions i guess to you are: who are the stewart family? and whats your opinion of Ebos's management?


Dazza
The Stewart family through Python Portfolio Ltd is shown as the largest holder at just under 10%. They are going to be prominent players in the health sector - at present playing for ABA.

Management, I guess is doing the job without any 'major'. There is always room for improvement.

cheers

Dazza
10-10-2007, 06:59 PM
if take over etc

i would think one of the big 3 wholesalres in aus

but stewart family interesting, will google them

macduffy
11-10-2007, 12:53 PM
The Stewarts are the family of the late Sir Robertson Stewart who founded the Christchurch electrical components manufacturer PDL Industries. Sold to the French a few years ago. Their company Masthead is currently attempting to take over Abano .

Disc. Hold EBO.

The Great Gold Guru
17-09-2008, 01:52 PM
Bgt today ... 10% discount to recent prices, 5%+ dividend yield and great growth prospects. Healthcare is a great long term place to put yr money!

Melchett
07-04-2009, 03:42 PM
Phaedrus – could you please post a TA chart for Ebos. Of interest would be the buy / sell signals. I see they that the SP is quoted today up at 480 – 485cps..

Would this be the recently posted div pulling it up or just a supply demand thing?

Your comments would be appreciated..

Cheers M

Phaedrus
07-04-2009, 06:31 PM
Melchet, EBO is in a long-term (18 year!) uptrend. It is in a "medium-term" (2 year) downtrend and it is in a "short-term" (4 month) uptrend.

The chart shows that the confirmed trendline monitoring the medium-term downtrend was broken about 3 weeks ago, giving a Buy signal. Note that technically, the medium-term downtrend has not ended yet. It would take a Close above the resistance at $5.00 to accomplish that. Resistance/support is often found at round figures.

The "short-term" uptrend has a confirmed trendline in place. A break below this would signal an exit from the trade entered at the green arrow.

The OBV plot is interesting. See how the OBV continued to rise while prices fell over the first half of this chart. EBO was being accumulated in spite of the downtrend. Note that the OBV has been flat/falling for the duration of the short-term uptrend. In spite of the steepness of this uptrend, unless it gets some volume support it is likely to run out of steam.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/EBO47.gif

Melchett
10-04-2009, 06:09 PM
Phaedrus

Thanks for your time collating the chart and your opinion.

Looking at what has happened over the last week, there has been another peak in the last few days at $4.80. It has dropped back to $4.65.

In reading what you have said, could we expect another smaller rise less to a peak lower than the $4.80 and a corresponding drop a little lower than the $4.65.. Going on the OBV and the medium-term downtrend?

Cheers M

Phaedrus
11-04-2009, 04:43 PM
Melchett, EBO is forming a Symmetrical Triangle pattern. When these appear after an uptrend (as in this case) in 64% of cases they are a consolidation pattern and break to the upside. In 36% of cases they break to the downside. Note the falling OBV, though. To my mind this does not auger well for EBO in the short term, so I reckon that a downside breakout is at least as likely as an upside breakout. Any downside breakout could mean a trendline break as well.
In the event of an upside breakout, it would not be unreasonable to expect some resistance at $5.00 as before.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/EBO411.gif

lodger
10-05-2009, 08:21 AM
Melchett, EBO is forming a Symmetrical Triangle pattern. When these appear after an uptrend (as in this case) in 64% of cases they are a consolidation pattern and break to the upside. In 36% of cases they break to the downside. Note the falling OBV, though. To my mind this does not auger well for EBO in the short term, so I reckon that a downside breakout is at least as likely as an upside breakout. Any downside breakout could mean a trendline break as well.
In the event of an upside breakout, it would not be unreasonable to expect some resistance at $5.00 as before.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/EBO411.gif

I bow to thee, Great Oracle.
Anyone watching this stock must have noticed the resistance at 500 is an absolute ceiling, at the moment, anyway. Just as Phaedrus predicted.
Anyone have any doubts about TA?

Phaedrus
10-05-2009, 10:31 AM
Lay off the adulation eh Lodger!

It is important to realise that we are aiming at a moving target here and things can change very fast. While a week might be a long time in politics, a single day can encompass a lot of change in the market. Look at this series of charts, just a few days apart, and see how rapidly the prognosis can change.
Chart number one (just before Easter) :-
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/EBO1.gif


THE VERY NEXT TRADING DAY (immediately after Easter) everything suddenly changed. Very strong buying pressure appeared and carried all before it. (Tall green line in Volume histogram at bottom of chart)
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/EBO2.gif


Here is the latest chart. Note how prior to the pivotal big Upday all high volume days were down days (red bars). See how after that crucial day, all high volume days were UP days (green volume bars). In a single day, market sentiment toward EBO changed from negative to positive.
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/EBO3.gif

macduffy
20-08-2009, 06:20 PM
EBO NPAT up 18.4% to another record!

And SP jumped to a two year high of $5-74.

Anyone else holding these?

:cool:

COLIN
20-08-2009, 07:25 PM
EBO NPAT up 18.4% to another record!

And SP jumped to a two year high of $5-74.

Anyone else holding these?

:cool:

Have held them, off and on, over a number of years, and currently holding. They have served me well. They tick a lot of boxes: healthcare products is a growth industry, wealthy cornerstone shareholder (Stewart family), steady acquisitions policy (with conservative debt), and Waller has proved a capable (and well-paid!) operator.

Shares tend to be tightly held, so liquidity can be a bit of an issue.

Phaedrus
20-08-2009, 08:13 PM
EBO continues on as a perfect working example of textbook TA in action.

Every move has been foreshadowed.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/EBO820.gif

glennj
21-08-2009, 06:42 AM
EBO NPAT up 18.4% to another record!

And SP jumped to a two year high of $5-74.

Anyone else holding these?

:cool:

Yes. I've been accumulating EBO for a while.
Running a quick report I see average entry price at $4.98 and IRR at 34%
Am happy with this tho am doing even better with some other stocks.:)

macduffy
08-09-2009, 07:03 AM
EBO's strong run continues, up to another 12 month high of $5.95.

Elections as to bonus shares/cash dividend close on 17 September. The "Buyback Offer price" has been set at $4.691798. Looks like a no-brainer decision to take the shares on this occasion!

;)

COLIN
10-12-2009, 10:46 PM
After having held varying amounts of EBO over a number of years, and reaped some good returns, I decided earlier this week that the time had come to end my love affair with this stock and say my final good-bys. The affair has been going nowhere, for some time now. Used the proceeds to take up a new investment in NZX and, although this investment did not precede the announcement of the share split and new dividend policy, nevertheless I have "come out better off" as EBO has continued to slip and NZX to strengthen.

As we all say, "I should have done it ages ago!"

COLIN
27-02-2010, 09:58 PM
Cross reference comments under "Paragon Care Ltd (PGC)" on the ASX. I am back into EBO - seduced again.

macduffy
10-08-2010, 08:16 AM
Thanks, percy, for your comment on EBO on another thread!

I'm fairly bullish on EBO too. They have a track record of success over a long period now with a history of successful incremental growth, partly by taking over smaller competitors. Good also to see them selling off the "scientific" business which wasn't core business for EBO and seems to always struggle for profitability.

One of my better longer term holds!

lewinsky
27-08-2010, 08:27 AM
Hi MacD

I am surprised no one has commented on yet another great result from EBO.
Also one of my long term holds.
Repaying debt
Increased Dividend
Very positive result all round.
Well managed and year on year deliver value to shareholders.
LEW

percy
27-08-2010, 09:08 AM
Yes I thought it was a great result.Having trouble with wife as she wants to get her hands on the increased divie.!!!!! I do not want to sell any although it is our largest share holding.Earnings will be down a little this year as a result of scientific business sale.Just loved"it was ready for significant growth"'quote.The foundations are in place in Aussie so I look forward to that market growing from 10% of turnover to being larger turnover than NZ.They never rush things but they always do it with the long term in mind.Can not see Mark Stewart being happy with 10% so would expect him to increase his holding.Peter Merton has helped EBO since joining the board.He is very clever with cash management.One of the woman directors really impressed me last year when she spoke at the AGM.She was responsible for brands at DB and it was her who developed the TUI brand and Henikin brand.Mark Stewart is also very astute and made sure Stewart family made a huge amount of money out of PDL sale,when former MD Don Sollitt and management would have given it away.MD Mark Waller knows exactly where{ and how }he is taking the company to.He makes sure he has the right people in place to achieve EBO goals.He replaced his long serving Aussie manager who was not up to the job.I look forward to this years' AGM,and note has been the same people at the meetings for a number of years,which I take to mean a lot of long term loyal shareholders.

macduffy
27-08-2010, 09:15 AM
Hi MacD

I am surprised no one has commented on yet another great result from EBO.
Also one of my long term holds.
Repaying debt
Increased Dividend
Very positive result all round.
Well managed and year on year deliver value to shareholders.
LEW

That pretty much sums it up, LEW.

Their expansion into Australia has been well managed to date and as long as this continues to be tightly controlled we can look forward to further good results.

lewinsky
27-08-2010, 09:25 AM
MacD,

Here is a mad thought, following your post on SIP on the ASX thread.

IS there a possible match???????

Phaedrus
27-08-2010, 10:17 AM
This chart features Bullish and Bearish divergences. These occur when prices and oscillators move in different directions instead of in tandem as they usually do. See how every divergence presaged a significant "medium-term" reversal. (Though not every significant reversal is accompanied by a divergence.) Divergences provide excellent entry/exit signals for short-term traders and also mark good points for longer term investors to add to (or reduce) their holding should they wish to.
The 14 day RSI as used to provide short-term signals can also provide excellent medium/long term signals simply by increasing the period, in this case to 100 days.
A 200 day Moving Average is commonly used by long-term investors to keep them on the right side of major trends. Conservative indicators such as this and the 3 oscillators at the top of the chart are slow to get you into stocks and slow to get you out of them, but they are a lot less likely to flick you out of an ongoing uptrend on any transient weakness.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/EBO827.gif

percy
27-08-2010, 10:31 AM
Phardrus.thank you for the chart.I did not realise the SP had moved so close to the 200 day MA awhile ago.Over the years I have noticed there are periods of SP weakness for no apparant reason.I guess is it can be very thinly traded at times.

macduffy
27-08-2010, 01:02 PM
MacD,

Here is a mad thought, following your post on SIP on the ASX thread.

IS there a possible match???????

Intriguing thought, LEW, but I don't think so.

Two reasons spring to mind.

First, the sheer size difference with EBO's M/Cap at around NZD340m versus SIP at AUD530m.

Secondly, I doubt whether SIP's remaining business would generate sufficiently high profit margins to attract EBO.

It would be a huge leap for EBO, not clearly enough within their area of expertise I wouldn't think. Unlikely that they would change their strategy so abruptly after decades of gradual accretive growth.

macduffy
17-09-2010, 12:19 PM
A nice, quiet achiever, this one.

EBO up to $6.90 today.

I hold.

COLIN
24-09-2010, 04:44 PM
A nice, quiet achiever, this one.

EBO up to $6.90 today.

I hold.

Have been in and out several times, over the years, and I keep coming back to it. Steady, unspectacular - a quiet achiever as you so aptly put it.

percy
21-10-2010, 07:37 PM
The AGM this afternoon was a very positive meeting.The special divie was a nice surprise.Mark Waller spoke of how small they are in Aussie and the growth prospects there.I think the chairman said watch this space.I will.They are very proud of their record .$1000 invested in 2000 now woth $5000.Have been doing some very good business in Fiji.Will be opening an office in Perth early next year.The Directors were looking to speak to shareholders which I take as a good sign.

macduffy
02-03-2011, 07:18 AM
Good to hear from the company that they have managed to keep operating through the Christchurch disaster, distributing essential hospital supplies etc.

EBO has been one of my bigger NZ holdings - and better performers - for longer than I care to remember. Better known as Early Bros in the "early" years, I was aware that their head office was originally in Cashel Street, one of the hardest hit parts of the city. Reassuring to be reminded that operations are now centred out of the CBD.

percy
02-03-2011, 08:13 AM
Their head office is a new building next door and overlooks Addington Raceway.I am not sure where the distribution centre in CH CH is.After the last quake they switched to their back up systems which I think are in Auckland.EBO largest footprint is in Auckland.Mark Waller spoke at length at the AGM about the importance of EBO to NZ's medical supply systems,and that they had backups for everything.

macduffy
03-03-2011, 07:18 AM
........And EBO have now announced increased turnover and NPAT for the half year.

All staff in ChCh are safe and the company can ensure continuity of supplies to the region.

Joshuatree
02-05-2011, 01:49 PM
was lucky to get some of the recent placement @$7.05 some big shareholders and a director selling down( a million or two). Hope this is not an ominous sign for the performance ahead.

percy
26-08-2011, 02:39 PM
Well todays result was another cracker.EPS up from 39.5cents to 45.4. And wait there's more;a nice 18cents per share divie..

arcticblue
26-08-2011, 02:52 PM
It's been interesting, MHI, SKL and now EBO have all produced good results and their share prices have done nothing. Maybe EBO's down trend will reverse with this good result.

macduffy
26-08-2011, 03:19 PM
Yes, a good result.

The market's pre-occupied with events elsewhere just now, leaving some tempting buys around for those with spare funds!

macduffy
27-08-2011, 08:47 AM
EBO on the search for more acquisitions.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/5516176/Ebos-in-hunt-for-100m-acquisition

percy
20-10-2011, 05:59 PM
AGM this afternoon was well attended.Mark Waller [MD] spoke at length about EBO's position in NZ health market.Working with the govt and Pharmac to see health money is best spent.He felt too much is being wasted in non health staff wages,and should be spent in front line staff.Should only be 4 DHBs instead of the 16 or was it 18 we have at present.Huge amount of duplication.He thought Pharmac was doing a great job reducing the cost of pharmacies.One product in Aussie was $1.21 while Pharmac had got the price down to 8 cents.Those sort of savings make the health dollar go a lot further.Ageing populations world wide going to cause govts big problems. Have the cash for a large acquisition.Working on something at present.Nearly spent $80mil on a British manufacturer.Got a long way down the road,then woke up UK was to far away and had too many problems.[thank god they woke up]
Felt Aussie health may move more to NZ model over the next few years.With lots of changes/challenges coming up over the next few years Waller felt there would be plenty of opportunities for EBO.He said major multie nationals with leave Aussie as it is too expensive to manufacture there.This will add opportunities for EBO.
ChCh earthquakes have proved all EBO back up systems worked.
Was impressed by Waller thanking all warehouse staff who lost their homes coming to work to get EBO products out.
EBO even supplied a competitors orders to their customers.!!!!

voltage
21-10-2011, 07:15 PM
Thanks for the update Percy. How do you see this company going forward, obviously looking to buy something. Great dividend growth over the last 10 years

percy
21-10-2011, 09:41 PM
Thanks for the update Percy. How do you see this company going forward, obviously looking to buy something. Great dividend growth over the last 10 years
Ebos have a record of 17 successful acqusitions.The next 10 years will see big changes in the health systems both here and Aussie .Ebos will benefit from these changes,because they are so good at delivering products to the markets on time.They have driven down costs.When the govt needs to drive out overhead costs,Ebos will be there ,working with the health providers,providing them with the materials. Ebos has a strong board,P Klauss and M stewart have large shareholdings.M Waller is a great leader.Ebos has a strong balance sheet. the next 10 years will provide Ebos with great opportunities.Exciting times ahead for the company and us shareholders.

voltage
22-10-2011, 06:51 AM
Thanks Percy I will add this one to my list for my long term portfolio. Another great dividend growth share like ryman and mainfreight. Do not need to go overseas to find these.

percy
22-10-2011, 09:01 AM
Thanks Percy I will add this one to my list for my long term portfolio. Another great dividend growth share like ryman and mainfreight. Do not need to go overseas to find these.

All three companies share one vital ingredient.Passion.The board,the CEO, the CFO,have this infectious passion that goes through their whole companies.From the receptionist to the delivery driver,they love working for "their" company.Setbacks are seen as new challenges,change,new opportunities.Do they bring outside consultants?.No ,because the people who have the greatest knowledge of their business already work for them.

steve fleming
22-10-2011, 09:24 AM
All three companies share one vital ingredient.Passion.The board,the CEO, the CFO,have this infectious passion that goes through their whole companies.From the receptionist to the delivery driver,they love working for "their" company.Setbacks are seen as new challenges,change,new opportunities.Do they bring outside consultants?.No ,because the people who have the greatest knowledge of their business already work for them.

Percy any talk about if/when EBOS will have a secondary listing on the ASX? Waller mentioned it as a possibility a couple of years ago.

Having said that, i see that the Australian revenues really droppped off in FY11, presumably as a result of the sale of Scientific? Aus revenues now make up less than 10% of total revenues - I recall it previously being a far greater proportion.

percy
22-10-2011, 10:25 AM
Percy any talk about if/when EBOS will have a secondary listing on the ASX? Waller mentioned it as a possibility a couple of years ago.

Having said that, i see that the Australian revenues really droppped off in FY11, presumably as a result of the sale of Scientific? Aus revenues now make up less than 10% of total revenues - I recall it previously being a far greater proportion.

No mention of secondary listing. Drop off was mainly Scientific.They have noticed a slow down in Australia.They are working on acquistions all the time,but the bigone they are close to I think we will find is in Australia.
First agm I have been to where all the talk has not been about Australia,except to say multinationals will no longer manufacture product in Aussie as costs are too high.They will therefore leave aussie which will open up opportunities for Ebos.They said they decided against UK manufacturer because UK was too far away and UK ecomony looked poor.I took that to mean they need to concentrate on Aussie. They felt Pharmac here had brought costs down and Aussie will have to move more to NZ model,which would open opportunities for EBO.EBO know they need a big expansion/acquisition in Aussie,but chairman Rick Christie said they did not want to buy anything cheap,and spend years fixing it up.They said selling scientific has proved correct.They said they are sitting on $100 mil cash and would not hesitate to come to shareholders if need be.
Go to www.stuff.co.nz and put ebos in search and there are articles on the meeting.

percy
25-10-2011, 11:53 AM
The chairman's , and the MD's ,and the slide show from the AGM have been posted on www.nzx.com website.Just enter ebo in search.

winner69
23-12-2011, 01:58 PM
If distribution is their core business and capability suppose pet products not that much different from healthcare stuff .... but an interest in Animates is one stepfrom that core

Interesting

Next AGM some doggy biscuits for that dog of yours Percy .... oops did I mention dog on this thread ... of course not

What you think Percy

winner69
23-12-2011, 02:09 PM
I sort of associated with a small business that buys things off Masterpet ..... have always been most impressed in the way they operate ... appear to be efficient ... and embraced on line stuff. Have also been through their Lower Hutt centre recently and that was pretty impressive as well

Disappoint those looking for an IPO eh

percy
23-12-2011, 02:46 PM
My initial reaction was one of surprise.Always concerned when a company leaves it's field of expertise.
However, on further thought I can see it as a good acquisition.I have two cats. I deal with Animates which I find a very good firm.
Mark Waller has at various times spoken of Ebos's very advanced distribution systems,and from that point I can see Ebos understanding this business very quickly.Dealing with vets should be similar as to dealing with Doctors.Ebos already deal with supermarkets,so know that area.The pet business is a very good business to be in,so I feel shareholder's [and their pets] are well positioned for the future.
It also gets them away from a govt funded business ,which may be a good thing.

percy
23-12-2011, 02:49 PM
At AGM chairman said they only wanted to buy a good business,so pleased to know you are impressed with Masterpet.
ps Hope I am making sense,but we are having queit a few large earth quakes which is unsettling me.

winner69
23-12-2011, 03:24 PM
bugger about those quakes eh .... and just before Xmas and when people were thinking the worst was behind them

Was in Chch the week before last and the people i spoke to werefeeling a lot happier about life and now this

Thinking of you all .... take care

percy
23-12-2011, 05:20 PM
Thank you for your kind thoughts.
Trust you and all other sharetraders,and their families have a save and happy Xmas.

janner
23-12-2011, 09:17 PM
Percy.. Percy.. Percy...

What can one say .. Have learnt from your mails and appreciated your comments ..

S*&t.. .. My thoughts are with you and your neighbours.. Perc..

Easy to say.. as I shake my head in total un/in-comprehension as to what must be going through the thoughts of Cantabrians..

Bet it took your thoughts away from the quality of jerseys offered by ... WHO WAS IT ??..

" Just grab a couple of blankets and those water bottles "..,

Best wishes .. Perc.. For you all in Ch- Ch..

percy
24-12-2011, 06:27 AM
janner,
thank you,and all the best to you for Xmas.Very difficult for Chch,just when the city tries yet again to move forward,another big quake puts the brakes on progress.It is again the people in the eastern suburbs who suffer the most,how they cope beats me.

Lizard
31-12-2011, 10:21 PM
I like the acquisition, but it looks to me like it may make it more of a 2013 story. i.e. wait for a full year of impact and for costs (and associated debt) to become clearer.

I have value at $7 for now though, so it looks like okay buying at these prices ($6.55). However, longer term downtrend doesn't look exactly shattered at this point on latest acquisition news, so maybe wait and see.

janner
31-12-2011, 10:38 PM
Me thinks thy name should be Prudence Liz... :-))

karen1
04-01-2012, 07:58 AM
On Masterpet: http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/6211241/Ebos-boss-sees-no-conflict-in-directors-link

winner69
04-01-2012, 08:39 AM
EBO has seldom had its 'governance' questioned and this has been one of the factors why it is a respected company

Shame that this may not now be the case. This may just be noise but it does plant that seed of doubt in people minds ... don't punters hate related party things.

Somethign that Ebos needs to manage very well

winner69
04-01-2012, 08:56 AM
That Masterrpet has pretty attractive margins compared to EBO's EBITDA margins eh ... good

One unknown is that the purchase price is $105m plus Masterpet debt .... wonder how much debt they have been loaded up .... could be interesting ..... maybe one day that will be disclosed

percy
04-01-2012, 10:24 AM
EBO has seldom had its 'governance' questioned and this has been one of the factors why it is a respected company

Shame that this may not now be the case. This may just be noise but it does plant that seed of doubt in people minds ... don't punters hate related party things.

Somethign that Ebos needs to manage very well


Never any problems there.
No problems when Peter Merton [PHB,EBO customer ] was there.The board of EBO is very strong.As regards to Mark Stewart's Ziwi Peak I see it as positive that Stewart has that experience.
The person who really surprised me was Sarah Ottrey.She spoke at one AGM giving her backround in brand marketing.She was reponsible for BD's Henekein launch and DB's Tui branding. Very clever woman.
Peter Klaus has been there since buying into EBO before 1990,and has always supported the company.
Elizabeth Coutts is an extemly experience director.
Chairman Rick Christie ex Rangatira CEO and again a director with a wealth of experience.
Barry Wallace,who I don't know is also very experience director.

macduffy
04-01-2012, 10:56 AM
From Rick Christies' comment in the article:

"Mark declared his interests as he would normally do in respect of Masterpet right from day one and as far as the board were concerned that was a matter for him to deal with and it wasn't regarded as a conflict ... I've got really nothing more to say about that. It's a different sort of a business. He's in the raw pet food business. The pet food sold by Masterpet and its subsidiaries is substantially manufactured food to dried food ingredients."

With all due respect to Rick Christie, it seems to me that there is at least a potential conflict of interest if, as the article suggests, the firm that he has an interest in, sells its raw pet food product to Masterpet. In those circumstances the approporiate action would be to not only declare the interest but also to abstain from taking part in making the decision.

winner69
04-01-2012, 11:02 AM
Percy - not casting any aspersions on the Board - just saying they have had a pretty good 'governance' record up to now and need to be totally transparent with the market now this has come out.

Irrespefctive of the calming words from the company punters tend to make their own judgement eh

percy
04-01-2012, 11:41 AM
From Rick Christies' comment in the article:

"Mark declared his interests as he would normally do in respect of Masterpet right from day one and as far as the board were concerned that was a matter for him to deal with and it wasn't regarded as a conflict ... I've got really nothing more to say about that. It's a different sort of a business. He's in the raw pet food business. The pet food sold by Masterpet and its subsidiaries is substantially manufactured food to dried food ingredients."

With all due respect to Rick Christie, it seems to me that there is at least a potential conflict of interest if, as the article suggests, the firm that he has an interest in, sells its raw pet food product to Masterpet. In those circumstances the approporiate action would be to not only declare the interest but also to abstain from taking part in making the decision.

I note Rick Christie said Mark declared his interests as he would do in respect of masterpet right from day one.
I would then expect Mark Stewart would have told the board of his experiences in the pet food business.Stewart is one very clever man so I would expect the board would have been enlightened by his words of wisdom.!!!!!

steve fleming
04-01-2012, 02:24 PM
Hopefully this was a misquote ""He's obviously a major shareholder but this was a board decision and it did have to go to shareholders. So Mark was just another director, really."

Surely he means it did NOT have to go to shareholders?? So Mark just gave his view as a director.

Unfortunately it happens all the time that major shareholders are canvased or given the heads up prior to a significant transaction, when in reality, it should be the board acting on behalf of their shareholders making the call, then taking it to a shareholders vote if required.

But strange for a chairman to blatantly publicly acknowldege that the major shareholders get a say in the decision yet there is no shareholder vote for minority shareholders to express their views?

percy
04-01-2012, 03:21 PM
[QUOTE=steve fleming;364572]

Surely he means it did NOT have to go to shareholders?? So Mark just gave his view as a director.

Agreed,after he told other members of the board he had an interest in Ziwi Peak ,who supply product to Animates.who in turn are half owned by Masrerpet.
I think it is very positive to have capable directors who have their own money invested in the business.In Mark Stewart's case he has always taken dividend reinvestment instead of cash dividends.There was a rumour when he brought in he would not sit on 10% for long and was expected to to want 20%. That has been unfounded ,however with divie reinvestment his stake has increased.
Also of interest is one of the owners/investors of Masterpet was "our old friend" Paul collins of Brierley Investments fame.

macduffy
04-01-2012, 04:45 PM
I think it is very positive to have capable directors who have their own money invested in the business.

Of course it's a positive for directors to have a stake in companies in which they are their directors. That's not the issue here, rather it's one of a potential conflict of interests between those of the company that EBO was seeking to buy and one of its suppliers. Entirely hypothetical of course.

percy
04-01-2012, 05:03 PM
Of course it's a positive for directors to have a stake in companies in which they are their directors. That's not the issue here, rather it's one of a potential conflict of interests between those of the company that EBO was seeking to buy and one of its suppliers. Entirely hypothetical of course.

Of course,I never thought otherwise.!!!!!!

winner69
05-01-2012, 06:33 AM
Percy - not putting a halo around the chairman are you? .... maybe with rose tinted glasses?

Experienced director .... yes and no doubt about that. Probably pretty clever as well and no doubt the Queen will recognise him one day

But this does not always make the companies he is associated with successful or a great investment .....ask the ;ong suffering shareholders in THL or WFD

Maybe in Ebos's case it is the calibre of management rather than the Board ... interesting thought

percy
05-01-2012, 07:34 AM
No halo,I lost money on Advantage Corp.He would have had to use all of his experience when he recently had THREE major shareholders as directors.From Jamie Maddren days to present time EBO have always had a strong board.Even Philip Burdon rose to the chellange.!!
Calibre of management , Mark Waller's leadership,Experienced board,have driven the company.

karen1
05-01-2012, 02:06 PM
There have been some very interesting postings since I put up the link re Masterpet yesterday! My tuppence worth:

Like others, I was surprised by Ebos’s recent acquisition, and despite wanting to top up my very small holding will now sit on the fence to see how the pet business folds into their human business.

Granted, the pet business is doing well in general atm, (Mark Waller said Masterpet was well positioned in one of the fastest growing global business sectors), but I have to wonder, given the current climate, how long that will last. I often drop in to our local Animates store with grandchildren, just to drool over puppies or kittens, and I notice a lot of shoppers (less over the last year) are buying pet trinkets, not staples. Even with the Animates club membership, I believe actual pet food can be bought more cheaply elsewhere, and for true pet lovers there is now an Auckland based vet with a website offering raw meat meals for pets, along similar lines to Ziwi, from what I can see. Possible competition down the track for Ziwi.

Having spoken with numerous people over the last two weeks and finding a great deal of them have spent far less this season than previously, it is obvious that spending is definitely tightening up, and this will likely affect what is spent on pets.

Nevertheless, Ebos has long been a very sound company, and as Macduffy noted back on 17.09.10: A nice, quiet achiever, this one. He also pointed out in that post: EBO up to $6.90 today.

So, today it sits at $6.55, not having shifted either way over the last few days, and I am wondering if other investors may well be doing what I am, fence sitting while this latest acquisition gets digested, and proven, or not.

Let’s hope that EBO continues to be that nice, quiet achiever.

percy
05-01-2012, 04:21 PM
I notice Animates web site is done by our "good friends" eastaronline.com ,no wonder it is excellent.

percy
19-01-2012, 05:54 PM
Well looks as though the market likes the Masterpet acquisition with the share price motoring through the $7 barrier pretty quickly.

karen1
19-01-2012, 09:32 PM
I should have prefaced my previous post with "L plate still in place"!

Glad to be proved how little I know, and chuffed with the uphill climb.

percy
20-01-2012, 06:08 AM
With your well thought out and helpful posts Karen1 you have long since lost the right to preface your posts with "L plate."
What we did not know was whether the Masterpet acquisition would be seen by the market as positive or negative.If the market thought it was out left field and would not fit ,EBO share price would have lost ground.What has happened is the market likes the acquisition.I expect some brokers,fund managers etc have analysied it and rate it a buy.The buying depth would appear to confirm this.

winner69
20-01-2012, 04:11 PM
The way analysts think ..... prior to announcement EBO was at about 7 times forecast EBITDA .... they say Masterpet will add another $20m EBITDA .... 7 times that is nearly $3 a share .... so shareprice heading to $9 when things become more official and the results start coming through .... pretty logical eh

karen1
20-01-2012, 04:15 PM
Percy, thank you for the confidence boost. I guess it took a while for the market to "wake up" again after the break, given I posted on 5th January. I did wonder at the time if I was posting too soon.

If I'm not allowed to keep the L plate, can I just be the eternal newbie?

percy
21-01-2012, 09:39 AM
The way analysts think ..... prior to announcement EBO was at about 7 times forecast EBITDA .... they say Masterpet will add another $20m EBITDA .... 7 times that is nearly $3 a share .... so shareprice heading to $9 when things become more official and the results start coming through .... pretty logical eh

As always you are right on the money winner69.
I had my hopes up for $8 but $9 would be most acceptable.!!!!!!!!!

percy
21-02-2012, 05:46 PM
Steady result out to-day.No surprises there.! 13.5cents per share fully imputated divie, always nice.What I was looking for was the outlook statement.Very positive,so I am happy.Divie reinvestment not avaliable with this divie.

winner69
21-02-2012, 06:26 PM
Percy ... yep a solid enough result

One of the missing numbers out the Masterpet acquisition ann was how much Masterpet they were to take on .... remember it was $100m odd PLUS Masterpet debt

That number was $30m and along with the extra borrowings to fund the purchase I note that debt is now $145m - $88m more than last June

So to justify this they need to make at least $15m EBIT from Masterpet .... might be a bit of a stretch if they say EBITDA is $20m .... fail to get this implies acquisition not really value accretive .... wonder what analysts will say about this

Masterpet is a good business .... hope EBO make a go of it and the likes of Percy will still be happy .... check back in a years time

percy
21-02-2012, 07:21 PM
Percy ... yep a solid enough result


So to justify this they need to make at least $15m EBIT from Masterpet .... might be a bit of a stretch if they say EBITDA is $20m .... fail to get this implies acquisition not really value accretive .... wonder what analysts will say about this

Masterpet is a good business .... hope EBO make a go of it and the likes of Percy will still be happy .... check back in a years time

Would appear EBO have made a fair purchase of Masterpet.It is interesting to note in EBO announcement today in "out look" that they intend to make further aquisitions in both EBO and Masterpet.Should they be able to add to Masterpet as they have done with EBO,Masterpet will go from a fair buy to an excellent buy.At this stage I have no reason to believe that their over 20 year record of successful aquisitions should come to an end.What I have been looking forward to is further expansion in Aussie.I did note that they said they were doing well with their "new' Perth branch.
Plenty for analysts to ponder,and shareholders to look forward to.

macduffy
21-02-2012, 07:41 PM
So to justify this they need to make at least $15m EBIT from Masterpet .... might be a bit of a stretch if they say EBITDA is $20m .... fail to get this implies acquisition not really value accretive .... wonder what analysts will say about this


Was this their expected EBITDA number at the time of the acquisition?

winner69
21-02-2012, 07:49 PM
Was this their expected EBITDA number at the time of the acquisition?

This what they said ehrn they announced the purchase -

EBOS has always set exacting criteria in our pursuit of growth either organic or acquired. We expect Masterpet will contribute very positively to the enlarged group and add to our growth in earnings per share.”
EBOS is projecting a revenue contribution of ~NZ$170m and EBITDA of ~NZ$20m in first full year to 30 June 2013. These earnings projections are inclusive of the Masterpet half-share of Animates, if consolidated

macduffy
22-02-2012, 06:30 AM
Thanks, winner.

Let's hope that they got a friendly rate on that bank loan!

percy
22-02-2012, 08:16 AM
Thanks, winner.

Let's hope that they got a friendly rate on that bank loan!

Must have as headline in today's The press;Ebos looking to buy-again.
Waller said that in terms of potential acquisitions ,the group was prepared to spend up to $100m on a human healthcare sector acquisition,-"if the right opportunity came along".
Ebos was in a preliminary investigation on one possible purchase,and would also like to investigate three or four Australian animal health opportunities as discussed in its board meeting yesterday.
"This market segment is growing internationally [and] the Masterpet acquisition will be a significant profit driver going forward." Waller said.

Pibroch
22-02-2012, 04:07 PM
Can anyone shed some light on why ebos' sp is going down so rapidly today?

percy
22-02-2012, 05:00 PM
Often EBO is thinly traded.Over the last few months there have been more buyers than sellers.The announcement contained statements that would have caused concern,so there are now more sellers than buyers.
Those statements;"particularly against a background of ongoing reform and tight budgets in public heathcare and a difficult economic enviroment."
In Australia " "real" economy is finding the going tough."
As a person who has invested in EBO for over 20 years these statements are not new,and EBO has always been able to take advantage of fast changing markets.For years people have said EBO will find it difficult if they loose this agency or that agency, hospital boards will go direct to the manufacturer,Australians will not deal with New Zealanders,they are too reliant on orthopedic business,loss of dental business will affect the whole business,the currency is working against them,dealing with supermarkets is madness etc.However EBO has gone from a $2m capital company to what it is today.I suppose I get in divie a year what my original shares cost.
I have read the announcement and to-days article in "The Press" and know from experience Mark Waller delivers on what he says he will do.

percy
22-02-2012, 06:40 PM
Percy, Forsyth Barr continue to say "accumulate" and value at $7.10, with the caveat that they have not been able to get a read on the Masterpet acquisition. I guess it's all upside when they do see the Masterpet profits flow through. I agree with you its a great distribution company. I just thought it a little fully valued, you are correct that they have good management, and if you are getting in dividends what your shares originally cost you, then you prove the theory about value investors winning over time.

Over the years I have noted when EBO's PE gets above 15 you know share price is getting high.When PE drops below 13 seems to be getting undervalued.
Your market cap does not grow from $2 or $2.5mil to over $350 mil in just over 20years unless you have a record of success.EBO has this record.

voltage
22-02-2012, 08:50 PM
ebos has been a great company for dividend growth,there are not many better, sparkytheclown I would be interested to know who you think long term offers better capital gain?

percy
23-02-2012, 06:44 AM
Ryman. Also Abano and Nuplex.

I hold both Ryman and Abano,however I have recently sold Nuplex after holding for a number of years. I liked the old MD John Hurst,but not sure whether the new guy's actions can match his talk.So happy to watch NPX from the sidelines.

Lizard
23-02-2012, 07:38 AM
I like the acquisition, but it looks to me like it may make it more of a 2013 story. i.e. wait for a full year of impact and for costs (and associated debt) to become clearer.

I have value at $7 for now though, so it looks like okay buying at these prices ($6.55). However, longer term downtrend doesn't look exactly shattered at this point on latest acquisition news, so maybe wait and see.

I'm sticking with this view on being a 2013 story for now. Also sticking with $7 valuation and prefer waiting for next report before considering buying.

Given the $20m EBITDA forecast provided was for FY 2013, there remains the possibility that it is dependent on some degree of integration/savings. Therefore a reasonable chance the next result could leave some question marks - firstly over whether they will achieve the Masterpet/Animates forecast and perhaps secondly, around the continuing contribution from healthcare (since it seems to be entering a weaker phase).

Signalled further acquisitions are probably not a positive this half, as would imply further increases in debt against a risk of EBIT weakness in the period. For now, the value of debt is not concerning, but knocks a couple of $'s off the s.p. if investors start worrying they have over-reached.

winner69
23-02-2012, 09:18 AM
For whats it worth a bit of a report I wrote to the trustee and investment manager of my family trust -
-
EBO has been a solid performer for many years

Mainly through acquisitions it has grown EBIT from $6m in 2003 to $23m in 2011 and heading for $30m this year

In that time shareholder funds have increased from $45m to $200m (there has been a couple of capital raisings)

EBO is one of the few companies in NZ who consistently earns more than it cost of capital - ie makes an economic profit on the total invested (equity and debt) capital in the company. Since 2003 EBO has averaged about $4m pa of economic profit

Real analysts don't care too much about earnings multiples etc. They get to the guts of the business and assess its real value from how much economic profit it makes and what that means in value terms. A common measure is Market Value Added (market cap less equity) which is how much value the market has added to shareholders funds. This MVA is the present value of all future economic profit flows

At the moment EBO market cap is about $360m, therefore the MVA of EBO is about $160m (bloody fantastic)

As EBO has grown it has needed more and more capital (both debt and shareholder funds). Since 2003 total invested capital has increased from $54m to $256m at June 2011 and with the new debt heading towards $350m by June 2012.

This increasing capital has driven increasing profits (bit of struggle the last year or so) but has not driven increased economic profit (ie a declining ROIC). ROIC in 2011 ws just under 10% - which is greater than the 8.6% cost of capital that PWC calculate. Economic Profit in 2011 was ~$2m. A generous forecast for this year including Masterpet for 6 months is say $3m. Slightly below the recent average but about where EBO economic profit has been over the last 8 years

Remember MVA is the present value of future economic profit streams - in EBO case this is about $40m which gives an implied market cap of $240m (current $360m)a

Without getting too detailed in the maths one way of looking at it is taking the MVA at any particular time as a multiple of the Economic Profit (EP) at that time. For EBO a multiple of 14 (based on its cost of capital) seems appropriate.

The chart attached shows EBO share price over the years with the EP multiples noted.

To get excessive long term returns one needs to buy when shares are 'undervalued' - makes sense eh. Through to 2007 EBO was 'fairly' valued and the share price increased as economic profits increased - over that time EBO was increasing EP nicely because they were making heaps more profit on less than heaps more capital.

Total capital increased significantly in 2007 and since then profits have grown but less than the rate that capital requirements have (although more than covering that cost of capital). This has seen that EP multiplier increase substantially - implying EBO is significantly 'over valued' at the moment

See the EP multiplier dropped to 7 when the shareprice collapsed (and its MVA) because of the GFC - that was the time to buy to make excessive long term returns - EBO was 'cheap"

In summary the current shareprice of EBO has an enormous amount of growth built into it - even before the market knew about Masterpet. On current and projected performance its MVA (and thus its market cap) is about $100m too much which implies a realistic value of $5 odd

All that implied growth may eventuate but bear in mind that the market has never had such growth built in the shareprice in the past. Today is not a good time to buy EBO shares if one wants excessive / above average long term returns - even if you a true believer

EBO will no doubt continue to perform well and grow its reported bottom line and continue to earn more than its cost of capital and eventually the market will settle on a price which really reflects the economics of EBO's business but I think that future price will bring long term returns we are after

percy
23-02-2012, 10:13 AM
Thank you winner69 and Lizard for your well thought out,and wise posts.
I must admit I have always got EBO selling a bit wrong.It has been my largest holding for awhile now,and every time I have sold off a few it has gone up.!!!!! Now scared to sell off any more.!!!!

Lizard
23-02-2012, 10:57 AM
For whats it worth a bit of a report I wrote to the trustee and investment manager of my family trust -
-


So do you pay him or does he pay you? :eek2:

(Great report - makes me realise how much I still have to learn!)

winner69
23-02-2012, 12:37 PM
So do you pay him or does he pay you? :eek2:

(Great report - makes me realise how much I still have to learn!)

No cash .... funny we always seem to be on the same wavelength and never seem to disagree or argue .... except as a trustee he likes to file so he can check back on the decision making process etc .... in this case the recommendation was to wait until there was more value in EBO so we need to review it every so often .... it is hard talking to myself at times though

ANother EBO chart from the report is quite interesting - investment (equity + Debt) v economic profit ..... note the investment is the avergae over the year so it esentially shows only a half year of the new debt .... and thus heading to the top of the page if they don't pay some back. Chart sort of says EBO not really creating riches from their acquisitions

percy
23-02-2012, 12:51 PM
The PNZ acqusition was high volume low margin business.
It will be most important that future aqusitions are higher margins.
I see EBO have the distribution channels to add more profitable add ons to both human and animal health businesses.
When looking forward one must judge the company's history of success.EBO passes this test.
"You are better to pay a fair price for a good business they a good price for a fair business."

winner69
23-02-2012, 01:21 PM
The PNZ acqusition was high volume low margin business.
It will be most important that future aqusitions are higher margins.
I see EBO have the distribution channels to add more profitable add ons to both human and animal health businesses.
When looking forward one must judge the company's history of success.EBO passes this test.
"You are better to pay a fair price for a good business they a good price for a fair business."

Thats why Masterpet is good for them .... a much higher margin .... might be able to learn something from how they work even if in different industries

Agree with your last statements .... no way am I deriding EBO ... as I said one of the few companies in NZ that have consitently earned in excess of their cost of capital ..... it's just I think that $7 is a not that fair price for a good company .... that guy also prob said pay too much for a good company and your future returns are diminished a bit .... or something like that

Was around at Masterpet the other day .... new bosses are very inteersted in how they operate but leaving them to their own devices at the mo

percy
23-02-2012, 01:42 PM
Thats why Masterpet is good for them .... a much higher margin .... might be able to learn something from how they work even if in different industries

Agree with your last statements .... no way am I deriding EBO ... as I said one of the few companies in NZ that have consitently earned in excess of their cost of capital ..... it's just I think that $7 is a not that fair price for a good company .... that guy also prob said pay too much for a good company and your future returns are diminished a bit .... or something like that

Was around at Masterpet the other day .... new bosses are very inteersted in how they operate but leaving them to their own devices at the mo

EBO have a record of making people proud to be working in the EBO group,so I would think Masterpet staff will enjoy being part of the team.
Value. I find very difficult to time purchases of good companies.EBO is very hard.If I did not own them at present I would buy them.I was expecting divie reinvestment,but this is not going to happen with this divie.Would I sell any.Not under $8 if I were to sell any.It would only be because each time they go up I become over weighted as they are my largest holding.

percy
23-02-2012, 03:19 PM
from Craigs research.
2011 actual PE 16.4
2012 estimated PE 13.4
2013 '' ' PE 11.1
2014 " " PE 10.6

Silverlight
23-02-2012, 04:55 PM
Ebos has fantastic track record of acquisitions, but over $7 it looks fairly valued. They have historically been a low margin, high volume business, improving their margins from 2.0% to 3.5% over the last few years, while revenues move beyond 1bill to 1.5bill, and that has been their expertise.

While the price payed for Masterpet maybe be fair or undervalued, and Masterpet may benefit from Ebos’ management’s ruthless extraction of efficiencies, it is a high margin business (+20%), and high margin markets attract competition because they usually sell branded "generic" products, so there are low barriers to entry outside of a distribution channel. It also means in tough times people don't buy brands they buy cheap.

These are Ebos' biggest risks it takes on with Masterpet, either more competition erodes the margins, or continued slow down in the economy makes people look at what cat food they feed their cat, budget biscuits vs "Iams Premium I love my Kitten Fibre Plus with Chicken". Think Goodman Fielder, they got screwed by the supermarkets and their high margin generic products revenues got killed.

Ebos core business is quality with quality management, however, this new acquisition has increased their risk profile, and for some who have come to rely on their consistent performance and dividend growth, its future performance will be significantly more volatile, especially at a time when world markets are again looking to plummet and cause mayhem.

winner69
23-02-2012, 05:19 PM
from Craigs research.
2011 actual PE 16.4
2012 estimated PE 13.4
2013 '' ' PE 11.1
2014 " " PE 10.6

So that implaies taking NPAT from $23m to $37m/$38m does it percy

percy
23-02-2012, 06:52 PM
X Craigs.
Forecasts & ratios
2010a .... 2011a..... 2012e.... 2013e ..... 2014e
Net profit 25 ..... 23 ..... 27 ..... 33 ..... 34
eps .50 ...... .44 ..... .52 ..... .63 ...... .66
epsgrowth % 24.2..... -13....... 20.1..... 20.5 ..... 4.6
PER 11.9 ..... 16.4 ........ 13.4 ...... 11.1 ...... 10.6
DPS .31 ...... .52 ......... .34....... .41 ...... .43
EV/EBITDA[x] 7.2 ........ 9.3 ........ 8.4 ..... 7.9 ...... 7.6
Yield[net]% 5.2 ........ 7.2........ 4.9 ...... 5.8 ...... 6.1
sorry best i can do.
Net profit from 23m 2011 to 34mil 2014

Snoopy
24-02-2012, 03:53 PM
Remember MVA is the present value of future economic profit streams - in EBO case this is about $40m which gives an implied market cap of $240m (current $360m)a


At the risk of getting all mathematical Winner, how have you calculated the present value of EBO economic profit streams at $40m?

SNOOPY

winner69
26-02-2012, 06:57 AM
Snoopy - a bit mathematical but the NPV of future economic profit where economic profit is NOPAT (net oparating ptofit after tax) less a capital charge (to account for the capital used)

As with a lot of valuation methods is rather subjective .... like how much is EBO going to make in the future ..... what WACC do you use .... for EBO on reflection I maybe should use a lower number than I have used because debt is such a greater proportion of capital used ..... how fast will they reduce debt etc etc

And then there is what is the sensitivity of some key performance indicators .... like EBO is a low margin business (MAsterpet should improve that) ..... but if EBO took their EBIT margin to 4%-5% than all the number change and a shareprice of $7 is fsir enough .... but I would contend that buying at $7 now and the margins did double one would not be getting the benefits of that (it is built into the shareprice already?)

Rather like Buffetts approach one should be aiming at getting above average returns ...... If you ran you Buffett model on EBO I'm sure you would reach the same conclusion that $7 at the mo is a bit expensive if one wants 15% returns inti the future ( EBO peob wouldn't pass many of Buffetts tests anyway to get to the stage of running your model anyway) .... something to try out on your new computer?

Sometimes the easiest way is to see if shareprice is realistic is ask would you buy the company lock stock and barrow. At the mo $360m to buy the shares and I would be taking on $150m odd of debt ..... some $500m odd ..... what I get back ..... current EBO performance say $45 EBITDA and MAsterpet $20m EBITDA ..... EBITDA as a proxy for cash flow say $65m .... set aside a bit for capex and tax ..... and it all looks a bit rich .... even more so if a borrowed a bit to fund it. (EBO not likely to be taken over then?)

winner69
26-02-2012, 07:08 AM
If somebody did take EBO out .... at a premium to the $500m needed .... one of the backstops to that strategy if things don't work out that well is that there is always a greater fool to take it off your hands .... that theory keeps the world going around

voltage
26-02-2012, 08:19 PM
winner69, interesting comments and analysis. Is there an easy way to apply buffetts model to companies or do you need a strong financial background to do this. I wonder if he would pick andy companies on NZX or ASX.

ratkin
27-02-2012, 02:03 AM
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8287-If-Warren-Buffett-lived-in-NZ-what-shares-on-the-NZX-would-he-buy

Snoopy
27-02-2012, 10:51 AM
As with a lot of valuation methods is rather subjective .... like how much is EBO going to make in the future ..... what WACC do you use .... for EBO on reflection I maybe should use a lower number than I have used because debt is such a greater proportion of capital used ..... how fast will they reduce debt etc etc


I think you are saying Winner that debt has a cheaper cost of capital than equity. That means when you are doing your WACC calculation and a company increases its debt then that in turn reduces the overall WACC for calculation purposes.

However, I have theory that the real cost of capital for EBOS is even lower than that. WACC is of necessity an historical calculation. Often in there are assumptions on long term funding costs. As long term debt rolls over and in the big picture long term interest rates plummet to all time lows, that means the WACC for bonds that you can look up will be overstated. In turn that means the earnings projections for EBOS in particular, given the context of this thread are worth more in present day terms than you think they are.

Comments?

SNOOPY

Halebop
27-02-2012, 12:03 PM
I think you are saying Winner that debt has a cheaper cost of capital than equity. That means when you are doing your WACC calculation and a company increases its debt then that in turn reduces the overall WACC for calculation purposes.

However, I have theory that the real cost of capital for EBOS is even lower than that. WACC is of necessity an historical calculation. Often in there are assumptions on long term funding costs. As long term debt rolls over and in the big picture long term interest rates plummet to all time lows, that means the WACC for bonds that you can look up will be overstated. In turn that means the earnings projections for EBOS in particular, given the context of this thread are worth more in present day terms than you think they are.

Comments?

SNOOPY

I think you are correct Snoopy. I'm not especially a fan of WACC and measures that rely on it. Historically sharemarkets react (albeit in a laggy and/or untidy knee jerk way) to bond yields. This suggests cost of capital must change, and probably more regularly than most models would allow for. But if markets were efficient (Again not a theory I'm a fan of) it would attempt to explain market volatility too. But oh brother volatility and various forms of arbitrage sit awkwardly with efficient market theory.

winner69
27-02-2012, 06:54 PM
One component of WACC is the equity premium which is rather subjective and dependent on a few inputs (as you guys point most of the inputs are historical).

I tend to use an equity or market risk premium more aligned to my expectations (rather than the traditional calculation) .... I see this approach rather akin to Buffett saying he likes to earn 15% pa on his investments ..... and as such come up with a share price 'target' which would give one superior future returns .... not an 'intrinsic value' calculation per se

Using this mark risk premium and the companies cost of debt is the cost of capital figure I generally use .... but of course reserve the analysts right to use whatever he wants

winner69
07-03-2012, 08:59 AM
http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/business/6535138/Masterpet-good-company-for-Ebos

percy
07-03-2012, 12:38 PM
http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/business/6535138/Masterpet-good-company-for-Ebos

Good article.Never thought about animal pharmaceuticals.Should have as my old cat was on half a heart pill a day for the last 18 months before he died,and that was $38 or more a month.

winner69
23-03-2012, 10:53 AM
Shareprice on fire .... up up and away

Prob that article in the paper the other day saying the share market is a safe place now and seeing you can't get enough to live on with term deposits and things you may as well buy high yielding shares like EBO .... safe as was the implication

No percy ... I don't have any bit you must be happy as eh

percy
23-03-2012, 02:13 PM
Shareprice on fire .... up up and away

Prob that article in the paper the other day saying the share market is a safe place now and seeing you can't get enough to live on with term deposits and things you may as well buy high yielding shares like EBO .... safe as was the implication

No percy ... I don't have any bit you must be happy as eh

Very happy.!!! Bit surprised . Wish you had some too.

Silverlight
26-03-2012, 03:09 PM
Mark Stewart just sold his 5 million odd shares @ $7, he bought in between 2007 -08 at $4 to $5.

Increase in liquidity if not to one owner is a positive, negative is that he is a director, and know way more about the business that we do, and that he doesn't like the risk reward profile of Ebos now with the new acquisition.

percy
27-03-2012, 01:07 PM
Mark Stewart just sold his 5 million odd shares @ $7, he bought in between 2007 -08 at $4 to $5.

Increase in liquidity if not to one owner is a positive, negative is that he is a director, and know way more about the business that we do, and that he doesn't like the risk reward profile of Ebos now with the new acquisition.

Very sorry to see Mark stewart sell.He is a very astute investor,and has been a very capable director.
Will be interesting to see where he invests next.
I have held my EBO shares since well before Stewart brought in.I am happy with the Masterpet buy,so will continue to hold.

Snow Leopard
11-07-2012, 02:10 PM
I notice that EBOS is cantering towards the $8 mark after resting for a couple of months.

best wishes
Paper Tiger

ratkin
11-07-2012, 02:25 PM
I notice that EBOS is cantering towards the $8 mark after resting for a couple of months.

best wishes
Paper Tiger

Yes, quietly almost unnoticed, no fuss, no bother , my type of stock. Was sitting in the vets waiting room last night , (copell pl , hoon hay)surrounded by masterpet products , wall to wall .
They should invest in the vets practice too , cost 60 dollars and was only in there two minutes, just for a flu jab for the cat

percy
11-07-2012, 02:33 PM
Yes, quietly almost unnoticed, no fuss, no bother , my type of stock. Was sitting in the vets waiting room last night , (copell pl , hoon hay)surrounded by masterpet products , wall to wall .
They should invest in the vets practice too , cost 60 dollars and was only in there two minutes, just for a flu jab for the cat

Hard to believe they were under $6 last December.
Hope McLeavy the vet is cheaper,as my cat needs the flu jab.Although I suppose being a long term shareholder I should use half EBO owned Animates.!!!!

ratkin
11-07-2012, 03:02 PM
Hard to believe they were under $6 last December.
Hope McLeavy the vet is cheaper,as my cat needs the flu jab.Although I suppose being a long term shareholder I should use half EBO owned Animates.!!!!

Animates practically have a monopoly in chch when it comes to pet shops , although they lost their main store in the quake. I know of several old fashioned pet shops that were forced to close due to the competition from animates , its a shame really , but animates really upped the anti when it came to petshops, far cheaper than any of the alternatives , especially with a membership card

winner69
21-08-2012, 03:20 PM
What a result .......who really gives a stuff that if it wasn't for Masterpet it might not have looked to flash

Onwards and upwards from here .... Next year the 'momentum' will continue - after all another half year of Masterpet to come eh

Share price up up and away ....... $10 soon I reckon

winner69
04-09-2012, 06:24 PM
What a result .......who really gives a stuff that if it wasn't for Masterpet it might not have looked to flash

Onwards and upwards from here .... Next year the 'momentum' will continue - after all another half year of Masterpet to come eh

Share price up up and away ....... $10 soon I reckon

Profit announcement didn't put the old healthcare division of EBO in good light .... sales down and the already thin margins down even further to a razor thin 2.7% of sales. On that result alone EBO shareprice probably would have tumbled .... or at least gone down

But what a buy Masterpet was .... with just six months trading to go by (and in line with what they said when they bought it) you would have say that that business is worth at least $150m and when we are in a irrational bull market like at the moment punters might even see iy being worth $200m

Heck thats $4 a share .... even allowing for what may have happened to the EBO shareprice with Masterpet that $10 I mentioned looks pretty fair value

Up up and away .... still more to go .... even from $8.40 .... up up and away

percy
04-09-2012, 08:08 PM
Profit announcement didn't put the old healthcare division of EBO in good light .... sales down and the already thin margins down even further to a razor thin 2.7% of sales. On that result alone EBO shareprice probably would have tumbled .... or at least gone down

But what a buy Masterpet was .... with just six months trading to go by (and in line with what they said when they bought it) you would have say that that business is worth at least $150m and when we are in a irrational bull market like at the moment punters might even see iy being worth $200m

Heck thats $4 a share .... even allowing for what may have happened to the EBO shareprice with Masterpet that $10 I mentioned looks pretty fair value

Up up and away .... still more to go .... even from $8.40 .... up up and away

Winner69.
Just keep posting.I read ever word you write. Up up and away.I am in the clouds already.!!!!!

macduffy
09-09-2012, 08:10 AM
Radio news item this morning.

Pharmac to take over centralised buying for DHBs. Can't help thinking that this is what that old Dept of Health used to do before someone came up with the bright idea of "empowering" - should that read "lumbering"? - individual DHBs with the responsibility for buying their own. Seems that the power of bulk buying has been rediscovered by some bright spark who has probably been paid a handsome bonus for articulating the obvious! Excuse my cynism..... but......!

Good news for taxpayers but probably not for shareholders of EBO. At the very least, would think that pencils will be sharpened a bit more.

percy
25-10-2012, 04:10 PM
This afternoon's AGM was very well attended.
NZ health sector.Supply to health boards rebranded to "One Link" [so as Canty health don't realise they are dealing with old Auckland/Waikato supply comany] Changes offer opportunities for EBO who have all the systems and suppliers in place.Will work with or in partnership with Government.
EBO have ACC home delivery contract.See room for growth.Have a quote in to supply all DHB[District Health Boards].Had the minister of Health open new Auckland premises,and sounds as though our Mark gave Tony Ryall plenty of good advice while showing him around.!!!
Aussie health sector.EBO is still only a small player.Good base,but needs to be built on.[Got the feeling,watch this space].EBO need to be in Aussie so they will need to bulk up.
Masterpet,Great business,great staff,great opportunities both here and in Aussie,although supply chain is very different.
World wide suppermarkets are losing market share to specialist pet stores.In Brisbane EBO have taken 100% [was 50%] of Beaphar Animal Pharmaecuticals manufacture.Very pleased with this.
The chairman only used the word "trajectory"once in his address.Although business outlook is still not the best,people are spending more on their animals.
Overall the mood of the meeting was very positve.They are keen for the success of the business to continue.Management has been strengthened by Masterpet acqusition.
Winner 69.Turnover.The way some US suppliers want accounting done EBO are showing only the commision as sales,which means lower revenue,but should show are greater margin.???!!!

winner69
25-10-2012, 04:24 PM
Percy. ....did they mention they would love to get the distribution of the new BLIS doggy lozenges ....a marriage made in heaven

If no mention Simla et al will be gutted

percy
25-10-2012, 04:36 PM
Percy. ....did they mention they would love to get the distribution of the new BLIS doggy lozenges ....a marriage made in heaven

If no mention Simla et al will be gutted

Simla et al will be gutted as no mention of BLIS. I will be nice and leave my comments at that.!!!

percy
25-10-2012, 04:49 PM
Great success story. Thank you for the update Percy!

Sparky, it is funny listening to CEOs/chairmans of EBO,MFT,RYM,POT,speak.Nothing smart,nothing clever,just interested in running their companies better than any other company in their sectors.They all know their businesses inside out,how to set realistic goals,and how to encourage staff to achieve those goals.They all speak in easy to understand language and I suppose they believe if you give the customer what they want you will get what you want. They all have stable boards and long serving CEOs.How Mark Waller has grown with the company.Grown EBO from a market cap of approx $2.5 mil in 1990 to market cap of $430 mil today,with a target market cap of $1billion in 5 years.I don't care if they make it or not,but know they will give it their best.CFO Dennis Doherty has been there with Waller since 1990 or earlier.

percy
25-10-2012, 05:32 PM
Percy, I wish you were doing research for the big brokers in NZ. Their recommendations would be far more compelling if they wrote like you did above.

Thanks Sparky.I think the brokers put more or most importance on numbers,where as I put a lot of faith in people.We all know "gunnars",gunna do this gunna do that and never do anything.If one of these CEOs said he was going to walk to Invercargil, you know he would.They are not blow hards,but know their industry well, and how their companies can make the best of the opportunities their industry offers.
I compare these CEOs with Ron Boskill at Postie Plus,who was gunna do it all.SP when Ron started on his gunna course was over $1.Today looking strong at 25cents.

percy
26-10-2012, 08:54 AM
Question;Is winner69 The Chairman of EBOS or did he write The Chairman's address to the AGM?
Quote from the address.""Onwards and upwards" which is another way of describing the ongoing progress and TRAJECTORY of your company EBOS Group".

winner69
26-10-2012, 09:28 AM
Jeez Percy you must have thought you went to the wrong meeting when Rick started off "plus la change, plus c'est la meme chose"

But then reality when Rick said "we are EBOS" ....rousing stuff eh. ....almost bliss

percy
26-10-2012, 09:47 AM
Jeez Percy you must have thought you went to the wrong meeting when Rick started off "plus la change, plus c'est la meme chose"

But then reality when Rick said "we are EBOS" ....rousing stuff eh. ....almost bliss

Certainly was.

macduffy
22-01-2013, 07:32 AM
Pharmac to expand their activities to include centralised buying of medical devices for DHBs.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/126170/pharmac-prepares-to-expand-role-to-hospital-medical-devices

Might bring some buying opportunities in EBO.

:cool:

winner69
23-01-2013, 03:41 PM
Hardly anything on this thread for months .....Percy being lazy or something

Further acquisitions on the menu ......NBR touting an outfit called SVS ...sell stuff to vets

percy
23-01-2013, 04:04 PM
Hardly anything on this thread for months .....Percy being lazy or something

Further acquisitions on the menu ......NBR touting an outfit called SVS ...sell stuff to vets

Sorry winner69 for not posting here for awhile.
macduffy's article gave me reason for concern.So I sold a third of my holding today at $8.58.
Whenever I have sold down in the past the shareprice goes up.
Maybe I made too much profit last year? Bit too easy.I am not a clever person.
Would think NBR have it right.EBO like the pet business and any [good] company selling to vets would fit in with where they want to be.
They also need a good acquisition in Australia.
ps.Took up my Tru-Test rights.! ? [well they are supplying the growing dairy industry.]

macduffy
23-01-2013, 06:18 PM
Hi percy

Seems you and I are the only ones at all concerned that Pharmac may put a small spoke in EBO's wheel. On the other hand, perhaps the Tower man has it right and the NZ market is getting a bit over exuberant!

EBO is one of my longest held stocks - with an average cost of under $2.50 - and I'd be more inclined to add than to sell. But not at current prices.

percy
23-01-2013, 08:02 PM
Hi percy

Seems you and I are the only ones at all concerned that Pharmac may put a small spoke in EBO's wheel. On the other hand, perhaps the Tower man has it right and the NZ market is getting a bit over exuberant!

EBO is one of my longest held stocks - with an average cost of under $2.50 - and I'd be more inclined to add than to sell. But not at current prices.

Does appear you and I are the only ones concerned.Supplying rubber gloves and dressings,to pacemakers,coronary stents etc,is all competition to EBO.I have held since 1990 or 1991.Market cap at the time was about $2.5mil and Jamie Maddren was chairman.As I said earlier, every time I have sold a few the SP goes up.!! They have overcome all challenges in the past.
I too feel the market is exuberant.I have been taking a bit off the top for a few months now,spreading myself even further. All ships float on rising tide.!!!!
Trouble is a lot of stocks,including EBO can be very thinly traded,and hard to get out if you need to.
The Kiwi saver money,plus a lot of other money is making into the market pushing good companies like EBO's SP up even higher,so one must stay fully invested.!!! Dangerous?

percy
19-02-2013, 03:44 PM
Fantastic result.
Today is the day, that yesterday we worried about,and all is well.!!!!

winner69
19-02-2013, 08:07 PM
Wouldn't say fantastic percy .... just solid and now we know what to expectfor the full year

Healthcare going nowehere on its razor thin margins and there is some risks associated with the future but they looking at how best to mitigate those risks - so lets say NPAT of say $25m-$27m this year. About the same as last year .... just as well bought Masterpet eh

Animal looks like it is heading to making $12m-$14m NPAT this year

They have this fan dangled Corporate division and that is going to eat up $9m-$11m

So all up lets say $28m to $32m for the year

At $9 that's a PE of 14-16 and to me a bit rich when future growth looks limited. I'll give it a few days and then this trade is over. Been a good run while it lasted.

They need to buy something else Percy before I'll be interested again

winner69
19-02-2013, 08:19 PM
The day after the ann of Masterpet acquisition EBO shareprice was 650 meaning market cap has increased by $130m since

Animal likely to make $12m odd this year - reduce to say $8m as share of corporate costs (interest) and thats $8m

The way I look at my trade is that I have got 15-16 years Animal Div earnings in just over a year and seeing I wasn't really interested the Health Div I reckon that is a good deal

percy
19-02-2013, 08:31 PM
Wouldn't say fantastic percy .... just solid and now we know what to expectfor the full year

Healthcare going nowehere on its razor thin margins and there is some risks associated with the future but they looking at how best to mitigate those risks - so lets say NPAT of say $25m-$27m this year. About the same as last year .... just as well bought Masterpet eh

Animal looks like it is heading to making $12m-$14m NPAT this year

They have this fan dangled Corporate division and that is going to eat up $9m-$11m

So all up lets say $28m to $32m for the year

At $9 that's a PE of 14-16 and to me a bit rich when future growth looks limited. I'll give it a few days and then this trade is over. Been a good run while it lasted.

They need to buy something else Percy before I'll be interested again

EBO has in the past traded [approx] on a PE as low as 13 and a high of 16.The healthcare has risks in NZ and is a light weight in Aussie,and needs to bulk up there.
Growth will have to come from animals.
I recently sold a few more as I share your concerns.Only trouble is they always go up after I have sold some.

winner69
02-03-2013, 06:14 PM
At $9 that's a PE of 14-16 and to me a bit rich when future growth looks limited. I'll give it a few days and then this trade is over. Been a good run while it lasted

Haven't sold yet percy ..... the price just keeps going up .... and up .... unbelievable

10 bucks by easter at this rate

percy
02-03-2013, 06:30 PM
EBO has in the past traded [approx] on a PE as low as 13 and a high of 16.The healthcare has risks in NZ and is a light weight in Aussie,and needs to bulk up there.
Growth will have to come from animals.
I recently sold a few more as I share your concerns.Only trouble is they always go up after I have sold some.

Somethings never change.Sold a third of my holding,then up they go.
Why? I certainly don't know.

glennj
03-03-2013, 10:15 AM
I thought the 19th Feb result was pretty good. This is one management team that tends to deliver. Am a bit surprised you sold percy!
Various amalgamated parcels I've bought as of today have an IRR of 117.7%
It's been a good ride so far and I'll probably reinvest the div taking advantage of the 2.5% discount.
The ratios post latest results look good to me and don't put them in to over valued territory yet!

percy
03-03-2013, 12:29 PM
I thought the 19th Feb result was pretty good. This is one management team that tends to deliver. Am a bit surprised you sold percy!
Various amalgamated parcels I've bought as of today have an IRR of 117.7%
It's been a good ride so far and I'll probably reinvest the div taking advantage of the 2.5% discount.
The ratios post latest results look good to me and don't put them in to over valued territory yet!

Market cap today is $486 mil.When I first brought in market cap was $2.5mil.So has been a great ride.I just get nervous at times.Over the years I have made and lost a lot in the markets,so I suppose I am being over careful.As you point out the company has always delivered.

winner69
29-03-2013, 02:28 PM
Percy ... what the heck .... EBO hits another all time high at 933 (and I was only joking abouyt 10 bucks by easter)

Still haven't sold out yet even though price is getting stupid on fundamnetals .... might have come close when it dipped under 9 bucks the other day but I was away at the time ... so maybe good luck keeps me in .... for now .... up up and away .... like a bunch of balloons

Here's a little picture of recent action .... ipad apps can be rather addictive

percy
29-03-2013, 03:02 PM
Percy ... what the heck .... EBO hits another all time high at 933 (and I was only joking abouyt 10 bucks by easter)

Still haven't sold out yet even though price is getting stupid on fundamnetals .... might have come close when it dipped under 9 bucks the other day but I was away at the time ... so maybe good luck keeps me in .... for now .... up up and away .... like a bunch of balloons

Here's a little picture of recent action .... ipad apps can be rather addictive

Fundamentals of a lot of stocks getting stretched.!! EBO,RYM,POT.Sell any and they just go higher.!!
Just hope this time when the music stops I can find a chair.!

winner69
29-03-2013, 04:43 PM
Ebos not over-valued. I can see $10 on it before I thought it was getting overvalued. That assumes average growth rate of 8% for the next five years (I don't know enough about year 4 and 5, so assume a terminal rate of 2%)

$10 seems like quite a psychological threshhold to me, it might hold at or around the point. Or then again, maybe not....

It is an excellent company. I regret selling out around $8, but then, I have had money in other winners over that time so shouldn't be "zero sum gain" about things. Can't be in every share, and certainly can't be in every winner.

Sparky - I don't think they will achieve growth of 8% over the next 3 years ... let alone for 5 years

Health has achieved little growth the last few years - low top line growth and margins a struggle.

All I know about health is what percy has told me and what the numbers say .... but I know a heck a lot about Masterpet .... before and after the acquisition

My forecasts for EBOS are shown below ..... summary from a bit of number crunching right down to economic value added stuff.

So on these currently around 16 times forecast earnings with future growth of 5%-6% .... maybe a PR rating coming up

But what the heck do I know .... of course they will be better than this

percy
29-03-2013, 05:48 PM
Thanks Sparky and Winner69.
I too see the health sector for EBO facing headwinds.In Australia EBO are too small and need a "big" acquistion.In NZ I see little growth,and tight margins.Pharmac talk is a concern.Maybe EBO will work with them.
The animal sector seems to be where the growth is in both Australia and NZ.[The chairman told me the bigger the animal,the bigger the profit.]
I would be closer to winner69's projections.[thank you for sharing.]
However,I have a history of being wrong with EBO.Anytime over the last 22 years that I have sold any shares,the SP has gone up.
As Sparky has found, I haven't done too badly with stocks I have brought with EBO money.

winner69
29-03-2013, 06:04 PM
.

So true ... big dogs eat more biscuits and bigger collars than smaller ones eh ... and eat more than little pussy cats eh .... but heck must be a good margin on the cat food and stuff they sell

I note (as a customer) Masterpet are starting to make some changes to their system, probably to save a few pennies .... maybe not for the good. Been a few subtle changes to their business website for instance.


Bigger the naimal the bigger the profits ... i like it .... a bit like good ole Gerry Harvey hoping more couples separate .... more couples splitting means more homes needing my stuff.

Sometimes business is so simple .... why does everybody try to make it more complex

percy
29-03-2013, 06:44 PM
Even bigger animals;horses and cattle.!Horse racing industry.Also working dogs need good food.Farmers no longer killing a sheep for feed.
Not sure about the web site,however EBO will make changes to distribution.EBO have always prided themselves on logistics and systems.Their ordering,picking and distribution is very clever.
EBO has always been customer driven,so I can not see them letting down customers.

winner69
29-03-2013, 07:19 PM
Even bigger animals;horses and cattle.!Horse racing industry.Also working dogs need good food.Farmers no longer killing a sheep for feed.
Not sure about the web site,however EBO will make changes to distribution.EBO have always prided themselves on logistics and systems.Their ordering,picking and distribution is very clever.
EBO has always been customer driven,so I can not see them letting down customers.

We forgot the animal remedy stuff eh .....now that's expensive

Masterpet had brillant logistics and supply chain stuff in their own .....maybe they learning from each other to get even better

percy
29-03-2013, 07:24 PM
We forgot the animal remedy stuff eh .....now that's expensive

Masterpet had brillant logistics and supply chain stuff in their own .....maybe they learning from each other to get even better

Yes has always been EBO way;learning from each other,to get even better [logistics for the customer].

Snow Leopard
30-03-2013, 02:26 PM
Half year profit was up 29% on last year!

About to pay 17.5c Interim Dividend, also up 29% on last year!!

Full year must be up and the final dividend must be higher than last years 20.5c, right?!!!

This growth is bound to be sustainable, it IS a new paradigm and this time it really IS different!!!!

Look at that dividend yield and then trying asking the bank for the same!!!!!

So $9.33 a share is ludicrous, I would gladly pay twice as much for this share!!!!!!

Best wishes
Paper Tiger

P.S. The Paper Tiger is being a little sarcastic :p here but if you wish to buy at these prices and higher prices then that is entirely up to you.

Disc. The Tiger holds EBOS.

winner69
16-04-2013, 08:00 PM
WTF .... wipe out day on the worlds markets but EBO hits another high

Still haven't sold yet percy ..... waiting for it to stop going up

Must be plenty of dosh on pet stuff .... if I lucky they might announce another acquisition and then we can see the shareprice go to 15 bucks

percy
16-04-2013, 08:07 PM
WTF .... wipe out day on the worlds markets but EBO hits another high

Still haven't sold yet percy ..... waiting for it to stop going up

Must be plenty of dosh on pet stuff .... if I lucky they might announce another acquisition and then we can see the shareprice go to 15 bucks

We find ourselves "well positioned," lol

glennj
17-04-2013, 07:58 AM
It's going great! IRR for my EBO holdings is up to 126.5% now. Happily I got my partner and sister to buy EBO for their portfolios as well.
The recent DRIP was at $8.6764 and yesterdays close was at $9.55
Glad I took the DRIP option.

winner69
18-04-2013, 02:32 PM
Hanging in over 960

Problem for me being a reluctant holder (.but it continues to go up and up) is that on current volumes disposing of the bundle I have could be difficult

Mr P always warned about liquidity didn't he .....so come on guys rev up some decent new buyers to help me out

percy
18-04-2013, 02:44 PM
Hanging in over 960

Problem for me being a reluctant holder (.but it continues to go up and up) is that on current volumes disposing of the bundle I have could be difficult

Mr P always warned about liquidity didn't he .....so come on guys rev up some decent new buyers to help me out

Never been a problem for the last 20 years.
We have seen Klaus sell down,Mark Stewart sell out and others,buy and sell.
Should you have a large enough holding I expect an insto would be pleased to take them off your hands.
The trust I am on sold 90,000 no trouble a couple of years ago,as EBO was overweighted.

kizame
18-04-2013, 04:33 PM
Hanging in over 960

Problem for me being a reluctant holder (.but it continues to go up and up) is that on current volumes disposing of the bundle I have could be difficult

Mr P always warned about liquidity didn't he .....so come on guys rev up some decent new buyers to help me out

So where is Mr P?

winner69
21-04-2013, 03:46 PM
Bored today so looked at mr Graham's intrinsic value methodology in reverse for EBO

His formula implies a growth factor of 4,7% for EBO at current price. And that is using his 8.5 factor as a proxy pe for a low growth company.

Hey if it we used say 10 implied EBO growth is only 4% pa

Good good EBO is still hugely discounted to a realistic growth expectation for EBO. My post above said nearly 6%pa for the next 4 years but I am usually so wrong we maybe should use 8%pa. Mr Graham would reckon EBO worth 13bucks or more.

Yippee .... No urgency to sell now. I am happy .....another 50% upside

Is Mr Graham a load of the proverbial - or is expectations of growth of 5% pa just unrealistic ( for any company) - or is the market really stupid at underpricing things - or has the world gone mad - or maybe just me that has gone mad already

percy
21-04-2013, 03:53 PM
Bored today so looked at mr Graham's intrinsic value methodology in reverse for EBO

His formula implies a growth factor of 4,7% for EBO at current price. And that is using his 8.5 factor as a proxy pe for a low growth company.

Hey if it we used say 10 implied EBO growth is only 4% pa

Good good EBO is still hugely discounted to a realistic growth expectation for EBO. My post above said nearly 6%pa for the next 4 years but I am usually so wrong we maybe should use 8%pa. Mr Graham would reckon EBO worth 13bucks or more.

Yippee .... No urgency to sell now. I am happy .....another 50% upside

Is Mr Graham a load of the proverbial - or is expectations of growth of 5% pa just unrealistic ( for any company) - or is the market really stupid at underpricing things - or has the world gone mad - or maybe just me that has gone mad already

I have always thought a lot of the Grahams:Mark, a great rugby league player:Billy a great preacher,and even Ben did a good job with company valuations.
I have my own views on whether you are mad or not,however good manners stop me from saying.!! lol.

winner69
21-04-2013, 04:19 PM
I have always thought a lot of the Grahams:Mark, a great rugby league player:Billy a great preacher,and even Ben did a good job with share valuations.

The kiwi Billy Graham is a great preacher of sorts ....motivational speaker supreme and pretty good for a naughty boy and one who can't write

Have you ever heard him percy ...you may have ....he was in the room across from the EBO AGM at that hotel near Hayley a couple of years doing his thing as part of a sales conference

percy
21-04-2013, 04:43 PM
The kiwi Billy Graham is a great preacher of sorts ....motivational speaker supreme and pretty good for a naughty boy and one who can't write

Have you ever heard him percy ...you may have ....he was in the room across from the EBO AGM at that hotel near Hayley a couple of years doing his thing as part of a sales conference

No.Thank goodness.!!!!!!

winner69
21-04-2013, 04:58 PM
Billy is a great guy and a great story teller

The kids of naenae owe him heaps

Maybe you should tout his book to your schools ....you might even enjoy it yourself

http://www.billygraham.co.nz/products/billys-book.html

percy
21-04-2013, 06:05 PM
See from the comments on his web page the kids like him.Another great Graham.

winner69
24-04-2013, 10:11 AM
might even get to 10 bucks today

winner69
24-04-2013, 11:29 AM
might even get to 10 bucks today

cmon baby .... only one trade away

10 bucks a big milestone eh percy

percy
24-04-2013, 12:11 PM
cmon baby .... only one trade away

10 bucks a big milestone eh percy

We are there.
The market cap at $10.00 is $529mil.
The market cap has grown from $2.5mil in 1991.Don't know what the compound growth is but that is remarkable.The CEO and CFO are still Mark Waller and Dennis Doherty.

winner69
24-04-2013, 01:36 PM
We are there.
The market cap at $10.00 is $529mil.
The market cap has grown from $2.5mil in 1991.Don't know what the compound growth is but that is remarkable.The CEO and CFO are still Mark Waller and Dennis Doherty.

About 27.5% pa Percy

Just shows the benefit of having long serving guys in charge eh. A couple of other companies come to mind in this respect

No golden halos and probably not to much in the way of excesses with these two either - just old fashioned values. Prob they don't even use words like paradigm, space, quintessential, iconic etc etc and hopefully never well positioned

Good on them

I played around with Ebo about 10 years but it a frustrated with them. I hate low margin businesses.

However masterpet was an event not to be missed. This has been a great investment over the last year and a bit. Still intend moving on, unless they buy something else that is interesting in the near future

Keep at it Percy. Maybe they have a special dinner for long serving shareholds to celebrate. If so not at the Chateau on the Park

percy
24-04-2013, 01:53 PM
About 27.5% pa Percy

Just shows the benefit of having long serving guys in charge eh. A couple of other companies come to mind in this respect

No golden halos and probably not to much in the way of excesses with these two either - just old fashioned values. Prob they don't even use words like paradigm, space, quintessential, iconic etc etc and hopefully never well positioned

Good on them

I played around with Ebo about 10 years but it a frustrated with them. I hate low margin businesses.

However masterpet was an event not to be missed. This has been a great investment over the last year and a bit. Still intend moving on, unless they buy something else that is interesting in the near future

Keep at it Percy. Maybe they have a special dinner for long serving shareholds to celebrate. If so not at the Chateau on the Park

Mark Waller as you know is a straight shooter.He leads from the front.Knows what he wants to achieve,where their strengths and weaknesses are,and seems to surround himself with enthusiastic people.Always been the threat of lost agencies,plenty of competition,margins under pressure,govt agencies,health boards.In fact so much that could go wrong you would have to have been brave to have brought into EBO.For a number of years brokers would not follow then as they were too small.Then when brokers did follow them they were scared of the risks. A truely great story.I am surprised the SP is so strong with your "huge" parcel overhanging the market.!!!!! lol.
PS.Where I have always got EBO wrong is being scared of the threats and selling down.!!
You still there?

winner69
24-04-2013, 08:12 PM
Percy .... I see Mrk only gets about $700k a year. No real excesses here eh

percy
24-04-2013, 09:16 PM
Percy .... I see Mrk only gets about $700k a year. No real excesses here eh

You are right there.And has more brains than MRP CEO or any of those other $1m plus power company CEOs.
He was in one of those big incentive schemes a few years ago.Really I can't remember when it was or how good or bad it was.[Never been able to understand any of them.Always vote against them]
When Mark Stewart brought in there was a rumour that Stewart would take over the company and run it.Never happened and Stewart sold out at was it $6 something.EBO do not over pay under achievers.

Snow Leopard
23-05-2013, 02:23 PM
So the magic $10.00 is reached, indeed briefly exceeded.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Snow Leopard
24-05-2013, 12:17 PM
Bit of speculation for a capital raising (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10885788) in the Herald

"Meanwhile, Stock Takes understands another two capital raisings are expected to be announced in the next week - a smaller $50 million raising and a larger one of between $200 million to $300 million. The larger one could come from healthcare sales and distribution company Ebos Group which is expected to reveal plans for a major bolt-on acquisition in Australia."

Shame about the $10

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

percy
24-05-2013, 12:24 PM
Bit of speculation for a capital raising (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10885788) in the Herald

"Meanwhile, Stock Takes understands another two capital raisings are expected to be announced in the next week - a smaller $50 million raising and a larger one of between $200 million to $300 million. The larger one could come from healthcare sales and distribution company Ebos Group which is expected to reveal plans for a major bolt-on acquisition in Australia."

Shame about the $10

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Makes sense as they are too small in Aussie at present.

macduffy
24-05-2013, 01:02 PM
If it's for the right company at the right price I won't be averse to putting a few more $$$$'s to the cause. EBO management have proven to be among the more astute in NZ listed ranks in recent years - and one of my best investments for a long time.

(Hope that's not putting the mockers on them.)

:ohmy:

steve fleming
28-05-2013, 05:50 PM
Is Symbion looking to merge with Ebos?

| UPDATE: 2 hours 38 MINUTES AGO PRINT EDITION: 28 May 2013 Edited by Sarah Thompson, Anthony Macdonald and Gretchen Friemann


Speculation is mounting that Melbourne-based pharmaceutical wholesaler Symbion is considering a merger with New Zealand-listed Ebos Group that could see a combined business pursue an Australian listing.
It’s understood Australian investors have been sounded out about the opportunity to invest in the entity, with sources suggesting it could raise about $300  million in an Australian IPO.
Symbion is owned by Zuellig Group, a family-owned Swiss investment company that is believed to have about $500

million in assets.
Ebos is a listed medical device company. It had $27.2

 million in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for the six months to December 31, 2012.

Zuellig bought Symbion Pharmacy Services for $505

 million in 2008 after Primary Health Care’s $2.65 billion acquisition of Symbion Health. Primary boss Ed Bateman sold the pharmacy distribution business – whose name Zuellig later changed to Symbion – to pay down debt.
If a deal was successful it would have to be a related party transaction as Zuellig holds a small stake in Ebos. It’s also likely that a merged entity would be run by Symbion CEO Patrick Davies.

Snow Leopard
28-05-2013, 06:01 PM
Interesting, need to wait for the official denials next.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

steve fleming
28-05-2013, 06:05 PM
Updated story:


Investors queried over Symbion-Ebos merger
PUBLISHED: 0 hour 20 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 0 hour 15 MINUTES AGO
 
Sarah Thompson and Carrie LaFrenz Speculation is mounting that Melbourne-based pharmaceutical wholesaler Symbion is considering a merger with New Zealand-listed Ebos Group that could see a combined business pursue an Australian listing.It’s understood Australian investors have been sounded out about the opportunity to invest in the entity, with sources suggesting it could raise about $300 million in an Australian initial public offering.Ebos is a medical device company which has an animal care business called Masterpet Group. Ebos posted $46.9 million in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for the 2011-12 fiscal year, revenue was $NZ1.42 billion and net profit was $NZ27.9 million.The local arm of Hong Kong-based conglomerate Zuellig Group bought Symbion Pharmacy Services for $505 million in 2008, after Primary Health Care’s $2.65 billion acquisition of Symbion Health. This was Zuellig’s first foray into the Australian healthcare market.At the annual meeting last year, Ebos chairman Rick Christie said the company planned to further grow by acquisition.An industry source said it made sense for the two companies to get together, although he was not convinced about Zuellig’s gain."Ebos I know want a broader Aussie footprint but I can’t see them doing this unless they can control the new company. Symbion would effectively become Ebos Australia."The two businesses from an overlap perspective makes sense, but not sure the play for Zuellig as it gives them a smaller potion of a bigger business."The Zuellig is a major shareholder of Kiwi retail pharmacy group PharmacyBrands.It is a NZ-only listed retail pharmacy group and incorporates the Life, Unichem, Amcal, Care and Radius brands.The industry source said if a merger were to move ahead he did not believe there would be a dramatic impact on Australia’s pharmaceutical landscape.If a deal was successful it would have to be a related party transaction as Zuellig holds a small stake in Ebos. It’s also likely that a merged entity would be run by Symbion chief executive Patrick Davies.Mr Davies was unavailable for comment on Tuesday, while a spokesperson "declined to comment on speculation".Ebos chief executive Mark Waller and chairman Rick Christie both were unavailable for comment. Zuellig did not respond to calls.

percy
28-05-2013, 06:09 PM
Ebos did buy PRNZ off Zuellig in 2007,so they know each other.
Sounds as though it would be a good fit.
Maybe Mark Waller is looking to step down.He must be retirement age.

winner69
29-05-2013, 07:55 AM
awesome stuff ... ebo a 6 billion dollar company now percy ... would you have ever believed it?

Balance
29-05-2013, 08:06 AM
awesome stuff ... ebo a 6 billion dollar company now percy ... would you have ever believed it?

What NZ needs - another company which shows that steady wins the race and that New Zealanders can do it overseas.

No flash harry with Mark Waller - he likes his flash cars but delivers. Contrast that with Rakon - sigh.

percy
29-05-2013, 08:12 AM
awesome stuff ... ebo a 6 billion dollar company now percy ... would you have ever believed it?

Awesome.No I would never have believed it.
A great fit.
Exciting.

ratkin
29-05-2013, 09:29 AM
Risk/ reward now goes up Great run company , just hope not taking on too much

Joshuatree
29-05-2013, 09:51 AM
Craigs have offered me some so trying for 6000.

macduffy
29-05-2013, 01:54 PM
Awesome.No I would never have believed it.
A great fit.
Exciting.

I'll second that, percy!

I have high regard for EBO management so assume there's a lot more to Symbion than "pharmaceutical wholesaler and distributor". It's not an exact comparison, but another big player, Sigma, has hardly been a roaring success in Australia for some time now as governments tighten drug subsidies/payments and competition intensifies. Not a true comparison, probably, as Sigma also has an extensive manufacturing and retail business, but I'd like to see some assurance that I'm just jumping at shadows here.

Snow Leopard
29-05-2013, 02:08 PM
I must admit to wondering whether EBOS is buying Symbian or is Zuellig actually buying EBOS ?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

macduffy
29-05-2013, 03:16 PM
I must admit to wondering whether EBOS is buying Symbian or is Zuellig actually buying EBOS ?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Yes, although EBO is acquiring Symbion, Zeullig will end up with 40% of EBO and, as the independent report suggests, probable effective control of that company.

macduffy
29-05-2013, 04:25 PM
The market doesn't seem to have any doubts about the "merger". SP up 15c on resumption of trading.

Huskeez
30-05-2013, 01:44 PM
Hope some of you traders were watching for the break out above $10 :) . Text book break out

Anna Naum
30-05-2013, 03:06 PM
Only offered 5000 shares, looks like some big scaling involved

Doing well, still worth $6500 based on ex price your broker just gave you.

winner69
31-05-2013, 06:07 AM
Strange isn't it Percy - one of the bigger pieces of corporate activity to happen on nzx for years and hardly anybody makes comment

Spouse EBO even mor boring than that rym

percy
31-05-2013, 06:22 AM
Been good coverage in The Press.The more I read about it the more I like it.Bonus,and cash issue excellent for shareholders.Future earnings per share is surprisingly high.A very sound,strong company going forward.Australian listing may be good,I don't know.Head office staying in ChCh and Waller still in charge also surprised me.Both companies are very well run,so putting them together will result in even a better company.EBO learnt a lot from Zuellig run PRNZ ,so would expect the same this time. Symbion CEO Patrick Davies will be a welcome addition to the management team.

glennj
31-05-2013, 07:15 AM
$10.60 what a vote of confidence!
Is the 7 for 20 rights issue going to be at $8.50 the same price as the institutional offer?
Think holders can apply for extra rights to take up any under subscriptions.
I'll tidy up my finances to make sure I can take up all my rights & maybe pick up some extras.
This has to be one of the better companies I've invested in over the last 35 years.
Started accumulating in August 2004 at $3.70
Good dividend yields based on that purchase price too.
It is one of the few stocks I never found a reason to sell!

percy
31-05-2013, 07:29 AM
$10.60 what a vote of confidence!
Is the 7 for 20 rights issue going to be at $8.50 the same price as the institutional offer?
Think holders can apply for extra rights to take up any under subscriptions.
I'll tidy up my finances to make sure I can take up all my rights & maybe pick up some extras.
This has to be one of the better companies I've invested in over the last 35 years.
Started accumulating in August 2004 at $3.70
Good dividend yields based on that purchase price too.
It is one of the few stocks I never found a reason to sell!

7 for 20 is at $6.50.yes 6.50.
There is also a taxable bonus issue of 2 for 53 to make use of imputation credits that would be lost.record date 6th june.
Rights are tradeable.So I can't see that we can apply for extra.

Huskeez
31-05-2013, 09:29 AM
And it continues :)

macduffy
31-05-2013, 12:20 PM
We can apply for extra - p22 of the Explanatory Memo refers - but I wouldn't expect many to come out of that, considering the attractiveness of the issue and the fact that rights will be tradeable.

Otherwise, still ploughing thru the "book".

percy
31-05-2013, 12:45 PM
We can apply for extra - p22 of the Explanatory Memo refers - but I wouldn't expect many to come out of that, considering the attractiveness of the issue and the fact that rights will be tradeable.

Otherwise, still ploughing thru the "book".

Thanks that's interesting.May be worth a go.!!!

macduffy
31-05-2013, 12:58 PM
Have a look also at p79, EBOS risk profile after the acquisition.

In passing, FN Area had this today re Sigma, one of the major competitors referred to in Northington Partners' report:

SIP - SIGMA PHARMACEUTICALS LTD
Citi rates SIP as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) - Sigma shares have enjoyed a strong rally but Citi analysts believe it's all a bit too much, too soon. Instead, they counter the company is still facing ongoing risks associated with a weak retail environment, competitive industry dynamics and ongoing regulatory scrutiny of PBS funding.
Also, Listed NZ company, EBOS, has acquired 60% of Symbion, but Citi doesn't see a material impact on Sigma for the foreseeable future.
Downgrade to Sell. Rolling forward the valuation methodology has pushed up the price target by 1c to $0.70.
Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: minus $0.115 (current price is over target). If SIP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in January. Citi forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 4.20 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.30."

Joshuatree
03-06-2013, 09:07 AM
Craigs have offered me some so trying for 6000.

Waited with anticipation for some days to be told only investors holding EBOS at the time would get any, so empty handed on this one. how did you go Sparky?

percy
03-06-2013, 09:38 AM
Waited with anticipation for some days to be told only investors holding EBOS at the time would get any, so empty handed on this one. how did you go Sparky?

What??? You mean you don't already own EBO.? Naughty boy.!!!
Seams a bit funny offering you them,then saying you had to be an existing holder.
If it was me I would ring Neil Craig and complain.[loudly] .!!![

Joshuatree
03-06-2013, 09:06 PM
I agree ,bloody ridiculous. Would have had time to buy a few too. Sounded too good to be true and i confess i had succumbed to utilising the paper gains already. Sparky?

Snow Leopard
12-06-2013, 12:33 PM
So with the rights now trading the EBOS share price has settled around $9.42, a little ahead of the $8.57 calculated from the pre-announcement share price.

Wondering whether to sell my rights, expecting to buy shares on market at a later date for a lesser price.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

percy
12-06-2013, 12:35 PM
So with the rights now trading the EBOS share price has settled around $9.42, a little ahead of the $8.57 calculated from the pre-announcement share price.

Wondering whether to sell my rights, expecting to buy shares on market at a later date for a lesser price.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Take up your rights and apply for extra.

bottlerboy
12-06-2013, 06:59 PM
Apologies in advance for a real newbie question!
Say I was of a mind to acquire a holding of X shares in EBO over the next few weeks, and presuming that EBO will pretty much follow EBORC + $6.50, what is the advantage - if any - of buying X no of rights then paying the $6.50 rather than buying X EBO shares directly on the market? Is it just a saving in brokerage or what am I missing?
Thanks
BB

Snow Leopard
12-06-2013, 07:05 PM
Apologies in advance for a real newbie question!
Say I was of a mind to acquire a holding of X shares in EBO over the next few weeks, and presuming that EBO will pretty much follow EBORC + $6.50, what is the advantage - if any - of buying X no of rights then paying the $6.50 rather than buying X EBO shares directly on the market? Is it just a saving in brokerage or what am I missing?
Thanks
BB
Absolutely no difference at all.

If you buy the rights they will probably take the extra $6.5 from you at the same time.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

bottlerboy
12-06-2013, 07:14 PM
Thanks PT
much appreciated
BB

macduffy
14-06-2013, 01:57 PM
It's no surprise that EBO shareholders vote overwhelmingly for the Symbion merger.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8796955/Ebos-shareholders-approve-Symbion-deal

percy
14-06-2013, 02:22 PM
It's no surprise that EBO shareholders vote overwhelmingly for the Symbion merger.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8796955/Ebos-shareholders-approve-Symbion-deal

Thanks for posting the link.I had intended to go to the meeting,but had a bit too much to do today.
A great deal.I found the "explanatory memorandum" a good read.My wife and I will be taking up our rights, and applying for extra.

macduffy
14-06-2013, 03:20 PM
.....but leave a few for the rest of us, percy!

:cool:

percy
14-06-2013, 04:13 PM
.....but leave a few for the rest of us, percy!

:cool:

Yeah right>>>!!!!
Don't think there will be many to spare,but worth a try.Can only tie up our money for a few weeks at worst.
ps.macduffy you did alert me to the fact we could apply for more.I was speaking to my Craigs broker,who couldn't believe that EBO were encouraging shareholders to apply for extra.Laugh,he said sounds like Wellington Drive>>!!!!

Sideshow Bob
14-06-2013, 07:04 PM
Story on the TV News said they would be the 3rd largest company on the NZX by revenue after the takeover - behind Fonterra and Telecom.

Wow!!!

percy
14-06-2013, 07:48 PM
Story on the TV News said they would be the 3rd largest company on the NZX by revenue after the takeover - behind Fonterra and Telecom.

Wow!!!

Yes very much Wow!!!
I think the next two or three years are going to be very exciting and rewarding for EBO shareholders.The combined business will be able to cross sell products.Sales and distribution will result in better use of staff,buildings, stock,systems and management time,and capital.There will be large savings made.They will go on to become even bigger, and as always with EBO, better. The animal health area should be just, or even more exciting,both here and in Australia..
There will only be 146.6mil shares on issue.With Zuelig holding 40% any intos wanting to buy a holding will drive the share price up.As you point out it will be NZ 3rd largest company by revenue, and any index fund will be buying.Being health sector I think we will see overseas funds buy into it.I expect Australian funds to be keen particulary when the list in Australia.Maybe Zuelig will sell down some time,but I expect there will be plenty of buyers.Existing holders will be loath to sell any shares.Very tight share register.

karen1
15-06-2013, 09:36 AM
Of note in today's news, more to acquire yet:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8799175/Ebos-looks-for-more-acquisitions

percy
15-06-2013, 09:49 AM
Of note in today's news, more to acquire yet:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8799175/Ebos-looks-for-more-acquisitions

Karen1,
thanks for posting the link.
Oh my goodness the excitement just continues.!!!

percy
17-06-2013, 01:33 PM
I believe the meeting on Friday was standing room only.
I can't put a value on EBO,but I know the next two or three years were are going to see HUGE eps growth.
I think any one reading the "explanatory memorandum" will see this.The future projections are very modest,[ I think they are understated ].

ratkin
18-06-2013, 03:58 PM
Am filling in application form ,will be taking up my rigghts . Is it worth applying for new shares?
Suppose it cant do any harm, what do you guys think are the chances of getting any ?

percy
18-06-2013, 05:24 PM
Am filling in application form ,will be taking up my rigghts . Is it worth applying for new shares?
Suppose it cant do any harm, what do you guys think are the chances of getting any ?

YES!!!!!!
Slim.!
Well worth trying for though.
Just means we tie up our money for a week or two.

ratkin
18-06-2013, 05:29 PM
YES!!!!!!
Slim.!
Well worth trying for though.
Just means we tie up our money for a week or two.

Went for it all guns blazing , not expecting any extra at all though

percy
18-06-2013, 05:38 PM
Went for it all guns blazing , not expecting any extra at all though

I am sure Macduffy will be too.
I will be.
The big surprise is Ebos telling us to apply for more.Some- one who went to the meeting [standing room only] said they repeated it there.Apply for more.!!
We can only do as they ask !!!

macduffy
19-06-2013, 08:11 AM
Yes, I'll be applying for a few more, too. But EBO is already my biggest NZ holding and I'll need to sell a few rats and mice to take up the issue at $6.50! A nice problem to have - a sort of forced rationalisation of an over-diversified portfolio.

:cool:

percy
21-06-2013, 06:20 PM
Yes, I'll be applying for a few more, too. But EBO is already my biggest NZ holding and I'll need to sell a few rats and mice to take up the issue at $6.50! A nice problem to have - a sort of forced rationalisation of an over-diversified portfolio.

:cool:

Wish EBO was my biggest NZ holding!
High finance here today.Both Peter and Paul got paid.Even paid my GST,and Visa.Cleared the deaks.!
What was left [not as much as I wanted] was spent on applying for additional shares,as well as the new shares accepted.
Surprised I managed to pay both wife's and mine on line.Had to put computershare as someone I regularly pay, as could not pay them as a one off payment.Then dusted off the fax.Now I join others for the wait and see.
A friend rang compuershare and asked them what chances he had of getting extra shares."well a lot of shareholders will be overseas and willn't be able to organise in time,while there are a great number of shareholders who do not open their mail,or update their addresses!"
Were are in with a chance fellas.!!!!! lol.

ratkin
26-06-2013, 11:30 AM
Those of you that applied for shares, has your money been withdrawn yet?

Mine has not

macduffy
26-06-2013, 12:14 PM
I did it the old-fashioned way and sent a cheque - which has been presented.

percy
26-06-2013, 03:33 PM
Those of you that applied for shares, has your money been withdrawn yet?

Mine has not

I paid for both the wife's and mine, last Friday night by internet banking,so our money went straight out of our account.

ratkin
26-06-2013, 04:00 PM
i thought i paid mine lasst week ,but today checked balance and it never went.
Had to resend, i asked if they had recieved my form , she replied that they get 1000s and only look at ones that have the money.
Hard to understand her though, think she was in india somewhere

Snow Leopard
26-06-2013, 04:04 PM
I have just internet banked to direct transfer the monies.

Now I just have to get the form that someone scanned & emailed to me and which I then got printed so we could sign it, scanned again so I can send it to Computershare via an online fax service.

With the ASX if you do an electronic transfer of the funds with the right reference number then it is a done deal, why all the frigging paper New Zealand?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

percy
26-06-2013, 04:16 PM
I have just internet banked to direct transfer the monies.

Now I just have to get the form that someone scanned & emailed to me and which I then got printed so we could sign it, scanned again so I can send it to Computershare via an online fax service.

With the ASX if you do an electronic transfer of the funds with the right reference number then it is a done deal, why all the frigging paper New Zealand?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

You did well not to give up.It will be well worth the trouble.I agree they make it far too hard.

percy
26-06-2013, 04:18 PM
i thought i paid mine lasst week ,but today checked balance and it never went.
Had to resend, i asked if they had recieved my form , she replied that they get 1000s and only look at ones that have the money.
Hard to understand her though, think she was in india somewhere

I am hard of hearing and find it near impossible to understand them.Hopeless.!!

karen1
27-06-2013, 08:18 AM
OneLink preferred:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8846595/OneLink-preferred-supply-company

macduffy
29-06-2013, 01:58 PM
Of note in today's news, more to acquire yet:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8799175/Ebos-looks-for-more-acquisitions

Here's a completely random thought.

Australian pet supplies company City Farmers is said to be for sale. Privately owned, it's apparently the market leader in Aussie.

I wonder?

percy
29-06-2013, 07:41 PM
Here's a completely random thought.

Australian pet supplies company City Farmers is said to be for sale. Privately owned, it's apparently the market leader in Aussie.

I wonder?

Perfect fit!!!

macduffy
02-07-2013, 02:24 PM
EBO issue oversubscribed. No surprise there but I wonder to what extent?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8868280/Ebos-capital-raising-oversubscribed

Snow Leopard
02-07-2013, 02:41 PM
EBO issue oversubscribed. No surprise there but I wonder to what extent?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8868280/Ebos-capital-raising-oversubscribed

"I know, for example, that a couple of shareholders have subscribed for nearly double of what they were entitled to, or three times what they were entitled to," Waller said.

Look Mum, I have made into the newspaper! again!


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

The BOWMAN
02-07-2013, 03:17 PM
Really, I can actually get some additional? Didn't think that would actually happen when I deposited more money to their account. :-)

percy
02-07-2013, 03:37 PM
EBO issue oversubscribed. No surprise there but I wonder to what extent?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8868280/Ebos-capital-raising-oversubscribed

We only did what they asked us to do?!

macduffy
05-07-2013, 07:28 AM
Well, "Thursday's" been and gone and no news on the over-subscription allocation. Perhaps today?

G on
05-07-2013, 08:17 AM
In their offer doc it stated 5th July "offer settlement and allottment of New Shares." So I would expect news today as well.

karen1
05-07-2013, 08:56 AM
Check the registry for your updated holding, mine is showing.

Mista_Trix
05-07-2013, 09:43 AM
I've unfortunately missed all of this and now waiting on the sidelines for a good point to jump in.

Snow Leopard
05-07-2013, 10:24 AM
On top of the entitlement quota I have received about 13% of the additional new shares I applied for :(

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

percy
05-07-2013, 11:47 AM
I've unfortunately missed all of this and now waiting on the sidelines for a good point to jump in.

TODAY.!before we all use our refund money to buy more.

percy
05-07-2013, 11:48 AM
On top of the entitlement quota I have received about 13% of the additional new shares I applied for :(

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

same here too.

macduffy
05-07-2013, 11:57 AM
I appear to have received about 20% of the additional shares I applied for - or put it another way, +6.7% over my entitlement.

Not complaining.

:)

G on
05-07-2013, 12:30 PM
Mine worked out at 7% over the entitlements. A whole 37 shares. Pleased I got that tho!!