Marlin

[Biscuit]

When money is cheap assets are not.

When money is cheap, assets are not (eventually). In the meantime, make hay while the sun shines.

[SPC]

If you sold the head shares and bought the underlying component stocks (with 30,%gain as calculated) the question of dividends then applies. Do the divs of the components add up to the 8,% pa NTA-referenced head share div or less (try your own calcs) and of course the PIE tax benefit disappears as for non pie divs and tax compliance admin surfaces as well...20-30 non pie stocks versus one single pie stock....no thanks

[mfd]

If you sold the head shares and bought the underlying component stocks (with 30,%gain as calculated) the question of dividends then applies. Do the divs of the components add up to the 8,% pa NTA-referenced head share div or less (try your own calcs) and of course the PIE tax benefit disappears as for non pie divs and tax compliance admin surfaces as well...20-30 non pie stocks versus one single pie stock....no thanks

No, the dividends certainly wouldn't be 8%, just as the income marlin make doesn't give you 8% dividends. You can do the same as they do and sell holdings to make up the difference if you want (and maybe pay zero tax on that income)

[SPC]

Which of course would be totally unrealistic given the complexity cost and time required. So why would you bother.
Actually 'distribution' is the terminology used on the pie tax statements and most other corporate comms I think you'll find.

[mfd]

Which of course would be totally unrealistic given the complexity cost and time required. So why would you bother.
Actually 'distribution' is the terminology used on the pie tax statements and most other corporate comms I think you'll find.

Sure, much easier to leave it to the managers if you need the high regular income, and to pay for the privilege.

From my readings around the area of financial independence, there is a rule of thumb (generally considered quite optimistic these days) that you can draw down approx 4% from your lump sum of invested capital each year and reasonably hope that it will survive your 30-40 years of retirement. I would be interested to see the Monte Carlo simulations of the survivability of a fund forced to pay out 8% of funds each year over a few market cycles.

[SPC]

Have we not had a few market cycles since each of these funds listed?
The dip last year was huge. As the was the recovery.
Still 'distributing after all this time.

[mfd]

Have we not had a few market cycles since each of these funds listed?
The dip last year was huge. As the was the recovery.
Still 'distributing after all this time.

No, the funds haven't experienced a sustained down market that lasts years yet. I believe they were formed after the GFC. A down quarter isn't so bad, but spitting out dividends for a couple of years while the market is down, funded by selling shares at rock bottom prices, will be interesting.

[SPC]

Wrong. KFL listed late 90s from memory.
BRM 2006 MLN a year or so later.
Plenty of ups and downs over that time
Still around and doing well.
But I get back to my original point. Don't get hung up about what's under the hood. Just drive the car. Like any other share. Buy it when you like it. Sell it when you don't.

[mfd]

Wrong. KFL listed late 90s from memory.
BRM 2006 MLN a year or so later.
Plenty of ups and downs over that time
Still around and doing well.
But I get back to my original point. Don't get hung up about what's under the hood. Just drive the car. Like any other share. Buy it when you like it. Sell it when you don't.

You're quite right about BRM and MLN, my mistake. I only see history for KFL to 2004 but it may predate that. So yes, all went through the GFC and survived, although MLN and BRM only started to thrive a couple of years ago

[alokdhir]

You're quite right about BRM and MLN, my mistake. I only see history for KFL to 2004 but it may predate that. So yes, all went through the GFC and survived, although MLN and BRM only started to thrive a couple of years ago

KFL listed in March 2004 only and its quarterly 2% of NAV dividend policy started from 2010 only . It had seen some rough times but not sustained bear markets as now that are not allowed to happen by Govts and Central banks ...that has brought us to negative rates etc . But I do understand your point that in sustained downtrend it will be cannibalising its portfolio only for dividends if that situation ever arises .

April 19th Marlin warrant announcement with record date of 14th May ...SP from 1.34 on 14th April to 1.61 on 4th May while NAV from 1.24 to 1.25 only . Means new warrant issue added about 27 cents to SP while NAV increased only 1 cent

These are the facts as per NZX website ...One can draw his/ her conclusions . Expected exercise price is 1.28 minus 10 cents dividend = 1.18 ..next May

This boost in SP to get 1/4 FOC warrant becomes self fulfilling to increase the difference between SP and expected exercise price thus boost to expected warrant price on listing ...so more like dog chasing its own tail ...lol

Warrant should list around 20 cents IMHO ...

[exwesty]

bump bump bump

[exwesty]

bump bump bump

[exwesty]

bump bump bump

[exwesty]

bump bump bump

[younga]

bump bump bumpthanks for the link. Sorry for the multiple posts but I'm stuck in quarantine and the internet is slow....
Anyway, small arbitrage opportunity with the warrants .. exercise price $1.28 heads are $1.60 warrants 29.5 and with a dividend of 2.3 cents, they should be around 33 cents plus any time value U put on them.

[Onion]

From Bloomberg:


Few people could have predicted the downward spiral for Alibaba Group when founder Jack Ma delivered his now-famously blunt criticism of China’s financial system. Yet one year on, the technology titan has lost a whopping $344 billion in market capitalization, the biggest wipe-out (https://link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/25463327.891271/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxvb21iZXJnLmNvbS9uZXdzL2FydGljbG VzLzIwMjEtMTAtMjUvYWxpYmFiYS1zLXZhbHVlLWRyb3AtdG9w cy10aGUtd29ybGQtb25lLXllYXItYWZ0ZXItbWEtcy1zcGVlY2 g_Y21waWQ9QkJEMTAyNTIxX0JJWiZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWls JnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fdGVybT0yMTEwMj UmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPWJsb29tYmVyZ2RhaWx5/60d2e31dc7c84811e7679105B8d5c0986) of shareholder value globally.

Alibaba is 7% of the Marlin Portfolio.

Marlin says of Alibaba:


Alibaba is expected to grow in excess of 25% per annum over the next few years.

And in their September newsletter are still positive about the prospects.

[Not too Flash]

Recent NAV's

11/11 1.2686
18/11 1.3158
25/11 1.2663

Seems very strange ....

[Beagle]

WOW this whole Kingfish group is losing its halo.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MLN/384549/361494.pdf
Adjusted NAV down 3.6% for the last 3 months v market index down just 1%
Underperforming for the year too but trading at a whopping 27.7% premium to NTA :eek2:
Reality check on that premium to NTA coming ?

[winner69]

Meta down 22% in after hours


That will a few percent of MLN NTA if stays down

And PayPal collapsing as well

[Beagle]

They've also had a really shocking time recently with Ali Baba and Tencent holdings too.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/what-really-went-wrong-at-facebooks-meta-after-mark-zuckerbergs-share-price-bloodbath/3N2QHEHGE6YN5V3DJNTJWG3UXE/ Marlin's single biggest holding making up a whopping 10% of their portfolio.

Is Fakebook still a growth stock ? Have people had enough of the fakeness on that platform ?

Marlin now well and truly broken down through the 200 day MA....more pain to come as well as the loss of any premium to NTA ?

[Rawz]

Looking at MLN's top holdings:

Meta Platforms 10%
Tencent 7%
Alphabet 7%
PayPal 6%
Alibaba Group 6%

Very techy and expensive. These type of stocks are not really in favour these days huh.

Guess it is a growth fund and not a value fund.

Could see book value per share drop this year

[Beagle]

Meta down 22% in after hours


That will a few percent of MLN NTA if stays down

And PayPal collapsing as well

US markets have had a pretty good start to February recovering quite a bit of January's huge losses but MLN NTA down a whopping 6.43 cents in the last week :eek2: People paying $1.35 for $1.15 of US assets much of which is in the tech sector...good luck with that.

[winner69]

seems Marlin can't get the month right in their latest update .... need to take more care

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MLN/388542/366324.pdf

MLN had another shocker in February with NTA down a whopping 9.6% in one month compared to the benchmark of just a 2.8% decline.
Barramundi and Kingfish also underperforming the market.
Tech sector and high PE sector is likely to continue to get hit the hardest in my opinion. Not sure why anyone would stay in and completely perplexed why anyone would pay a premium to NTA.
Disc: No holdings in the Fisher funds group either the shares or the warrants.

[Rawz]

The premium is outrageous

[alokdhir]

Its become even more outrageous ...28% ...wow ...

People and hype can do wonders in stock markets ...

It will be very interesting to see how the warrant issue gets subscribed ...its exercise price is $ 1.18 ...current SP is $ 1.21 and falling with latest NAV NOT EX DIV is
$ 0.9902 ...

If the markets dont improve fast ...its a FAIL .

KFL warrant holders will be looking at what can happen in Nov

[777]

Interesting that the NAV for BRM and KFL are stated with the dividend taken into account.

[alokdhir]

Interesting that the NAV for BRM and KFL are stated with the dividend taken into account.

As MLN NAV is dated 8th March ..when it was still cum div.

[777]

I should have figured that out.

[SPC]

KFL exercise is still some time away but MLN coming down to the wire. In the past there have been holders who exercise over the market price as well as those who don't even when the exercise price is considerably under market pricing.
Assuming no change in metrics between now and May any exercise at 118c will actually raise NTA as they'll get bonus cash in.
Insufficient diversification with the high conviction 'love-em to death' holdings strikes again.
Time will tell. The COVID drop was short-lived...

[Gerald]

Interesting to look back to 2010, was run abit differently.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MLN/202716/130477.pdf

Top holding Wirecard :t_up: That aged well.

[Beagle]

US markets have had a pretty good start to February recovering quite a bit of January's huge losses but MLN NTA down a whopping 6.43 cents in the last week :eek2: People paying $1.35 for $1.15 of US assets much of which is in the tech sector...good luck with that. Posted 10 February 2022
NTA now just 99 cents, down 16 cents (14% !) in just the last month :eek2:

[alokdhir]

MLN well below exercise price now ....still have 2 months or so to recover ...Maybe a truce and rolling back of sanctions will do ...but tough ask

[Beagle]

Very difficult to see any value whatsoever in Marlin or Kingfish warrants.

[Sideshow Bob]

MLN - Announcement of Warrant Exercise Price (MLNWE) - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/389986)

Marlin Global Limited (Marlin) wishes to advise all Marlin Warrant Holders (MLNWE) that the final exercise price of the warrants is $1.18.
Further details regarding the Marlin warrants, which have an exercise date of 20 May 2022, will be emailed/mailed to all warrant holders during April 2022.

[Sideshow Bob]

MLN - Announcement of Warrant Exercise Price (MLNWE) - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/389986)

Marlin Global Limited (Marlin) wishes to advise all Marlin Warrant Holders (MLNWE) that the final exercise price of the warrants is $1.18.
Further details regarding the Marlin warrants, which have an exercise date of 20 May 2022, will be emailed/mailed to all warrant holders during April 2022.

Currently trading at $1.25, but paying $1.18 for $1.0919 worth of assets, as of Friday......:confused:

[SPC]

Yes I'm not sure I want to pay Marlin Ltd $1.18 for assets worth $1.09 assuming no material change in NTA between now and then. In theory the post exercise nta should actually rise as Marlin has issued new shares at a profit rather than a loss.

[Beagle]

https://fisherfunds.co.nz/investment/managed-funds/international-growth-fund

Unlisted fund as I understand it mirrors the listed fund. If you like the assets they hold you can get in here with zero premium to NTA.

Fisher Funds have not acquitted themselves well in recent months in my opinion.

[Waltzing]

Mr B has fighter pilot sight... reads at high speed...

[hamish]

I try to keep in mind the type of asset that they, they exposure they give me are and how they fit into overall portfolio at risk.

The NTA and SP is reflective of the core holdings (and sentiment for the stock and markets overall)

So, I ask myself are they investing wisely in underpinning Companies that have a long term future? What's their rationale, does it stack up? There is always going to up and downs as equity shifts between sectors and growth and value...so how are the managing this? What's the largest holdings? why?

In the latest March update they've strengthened holding in Microsoft, PayPal, Salesforce on the SP dips. So, do I agree...is this a wise use of my money? Meta/Paypal have been smashed with market aversion to growth and regulatory risks, is this fair or an over-reaction? Will they bounce?

On par, will continue to hold and add on weakness - provided the answers above meet my personal investment mid-long term thesis on Orgs and sectors.

[SPC]

But would you pay $1.18 for assets valued at around $1.05 ? (assuming no material change in NTA between now and May).
I'm not sure If want to give Marlin extra cash of approximately 13c with each exercised warrant merely to be banked (I suspect) and given back to me in annual distributions.

[alokdhir]

First time in history of warrants exercise at Fisher funds they are asking holders to pay more then NAV of the head shares which will actually lead to NAV going up at the cost of new holders ...normally it happens other way round thus encouraging existing holders to exercise warrants or their holdings get diluted with NAV going down ...But this time round existing holders are better off not converting at premium and selling warrants in market and let someone else buy at premium thus increasing NAV of their existing holdings

Very interesting times we live in . But this will help existing holders get some benefit of the premium of SP

[Not too Flash]

The share price is what you can sell the shares at
The NAV although of interest is irrelevant
For a long time the NAV exceeded the share price and the market didn't seem to care

The sharemarket is a peculair beast and doesn't always follow convention

[alokdhir]

Nav exceeding SP is more understandable in a closed fund as thats the discount for cashing out ...SP at premium to NAV is more difficult to digest or justify

[bull....]

they just added a big stake in netflix last quarter according to there update ... :scared: the big fall in netflix wont help this quarters returns?

[Muse]

they just added a big stake in netflix last quarter according to there update ... :scared: the big fall in netflix wont help this quarters returns?

i know I just read their release - gulp!! only 2.5% of the marlin portfolio but doesn't do much by way of giving confidence to their investment strategy

[Beagle]

i know I just read their release - gulp!! only 2.5% of the marlin portfolio but doesn't do much by way of giving confidence to their investment strategy

I really wonder if their portfolio is fit for purpose at this point ? Certainly not at a premium to NTA ! I choose not to put significant funds in January with their private wealth division which was going to be invested half and half into their Australasian growth (basically, BRM shares) and International growth funds (MLN shares), albeit on their unlisted fund platform at NTA, not at a 20% premium to NTA in their listed platforms. I am exceptionally pleased I didn't proceed and see no rush to do this going forward.

Marlin and to a significant extent Barramundi are loaded towards tech and the NASDAQ is now down more than 20% and in a bear market. Both have very badly underperformed the market in the last quarter and I expect that will continue in 2022 as the reckoning process with the huge valuations many of these tech companies trade on, plays itself out.

To your point. Netflix down 38% just in the last week ! I don't think they are seeing the wood for the trees at present.

[Muse]

I really wonder if their portfolio is fit for purpose at this point ? Certainly not at a premium to NTA ! I choose not to put significant funds in January with their private wealth division which was going to be invested half and half into their Australasian growth (basically, BRM shares) and International growth funds (MLN shares), albeit on their unlisted fund platform at NTA, not at a 20% premium to NTA in their listed platforms. I am exceptionally pleased I didn't proceed and see no rush to do this going forward.

Marlin and to a significant extent Barramundi are loaded towards tech and the NASDAQ is now down more than 20% and in a bear market. Both have very badly underperformed the market in the last quarter and I expect that will continue in 2022 as the reckoning process with the huge valuations many of these tech companies trade on, plays itself out.

To your point. Netflix down 38% just in the last week ! I don't think they are seeing the wood for the trees at present.

agreed
would be easy to replicate their strategy directly, if one wanted to. half of sharsies users are already doing that without paying their historical premium to nta.

[Rawz]

Agree and Meta is another large holding down 44% YTD and likely to go down more

>10% of portfolio is invested in China tech co's Alibaba Group and Tencent Holdings which have huge geopolitical risks.

The premium to NTA is unwarranted. I guess the premium will naturally diminish as yields increase anyway

[Beagle]

Latest NTA is just out and down nearly 9% in just the last week and that's when the NZ dollar fell sharply as well which should have helped reduce the loss :eek2: :eek2: (MLN undiluted NAV $0.9544 this week $1.0456 last week) Oh my goodness, what an absolute disaster !

[bull....]

whats it going to look like if the us markets fall another 20% ?

[Beagle]

whats it going to look like if the us markets fall another 20% ?

They'll probably lose another 40% but no worries Ashley Gardyne their chief investment officer will be along soon with yet another article in the Herald telling everyone to hang in there and that will fix the problem when he says it for the third time for sure ;)

Marlin is almost the N.Z. version of Kathy Woods ARK investment fund :eek2:

[SPC]

Very poor outcome from recent warrant round, 10% exercised, not unexpected given pricing set at $1.18 vs underlying value of less than $1.00. At least upcoming div should be fundable from new cash 😉.
Didn't participate.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MLN/392654/371426.pdf

Yeah, huge vote of no confidence in their investment strategy targeting tech. Nasdaq now down 30% from its ridiculously overpriced level's at the peak and could easily fall another 30% :scared: The tech bubble has popped and this Bear is ferocious and takes no prisoners !

[Biscuit]

Very poor outcome from recent warrant round, 10% exercised, not unexpected given pricing set at $1.18 vs underlying value of less than $1.00. At least upcoming div should be fundable from new cash .
Didn't participate.

Hard to see why anyone exercised to be honest.

[777]

Hard to see why anyone exercised to be honest.

Agree but plenty wanted at 123 and 125 today.

[alokdhir]

Agree but plenty wanted at 123 and 125 today.

Maybe they think now Nav got a boost after 10% exercised at 25 cents premium ...lol

This is actually good now for old holders ...let new comers pay a premium to boost nav of the old holders ...seems more fair then previous exercises when they used to get discount at the expense of old holders ...:D

[SPC]

Can't understand the thinking behind this buyer behaviour. Updated NTA out today.
Maybe todays buyers like prefunding their future dividends ? ;).... headline yield..?
Who knows...

[Beagle]

36% premium to NTA just announced and they're heavily exposed to the tech sector which is vulnerable to further substantial declines and in a well established Bear market. I believe that's an all time high premium to NTA....The mind boggles...Personally I wouldn't pay face value NTA for their current portfolio.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/392792

[alokdhir]

All the fisher funds started looking like a Ponzi scheme ...36% , 29% and 19% of our own KFL, premium to NAV

One day original holders will think its better to sell and invest at face value in some other scheme like FNZ etc

[SPC]

Yes a 'whopping' 36% 🦮 .. you'd have to be barking mad 😉. Use of the dreaded P word is really not appropriate tho, nothing to do with Marlin per se. Buyer beware...

[Rawz]

The funds investors must be ultra 'never sell' investors?

Do they even know the SP or the premium? They probably just collect the quarterly dividend and don't care about the rest

[alokdhir]

Yes a 'whopping' 36% 瑩 .. you'd have to be barking mad . Use of the dreaded P word is really not appropriate tho, nothing to do with Marlin per se. Buyer beware...

When they sell new units in Marlin at 30% premium to their intrinsic worth ...then was Marlin involved or not mate ?

[SPC]

That price was set a year ago.
Buying at a 30% premium is a buyer decision. Even you know that simple fact, mate.

[Snoopy]

They'll probably lose another 40% but no worries Ashley Gardyne their chief investment officer will be along soon with yet another article in the Herald telling everyone to hang in there and that will fix the problem when he says it for the third time for sure ;)

Marlin is almost the N.Z. version of Kathy Woods ARK investment fund :eek2:

I think anyone who is with a Fisher managed fund, and takes time out to read their investment philosophy will understand why the Marlin fund has performed as it has. Funds have a mandate to invest Beagle, so they don't have the option of flipping in and out of the market like you can. Lead investment manager, Ashley Gardyne, likes to find good companies and stay invested in them. So if he is a fan of tech, which you can see he is from the table below, then any tech rout will cut into his chosen portfolio deeply.

Last time I looked at the FANG companies, their PE ratios resembled the room numbers you might get allocated when checking into a high rise hotel. This seems to have changed though. Look at the table I have compiled of the top 5 Marlin holdings today.



SharePE ratio 26-05-2022


Meta Platforms (was Facebook)13.1


Alphabet (was Google)19.1


Amazon51.6


Paypal26.5


Tencent (China)13.2




You will probably have heard of the top four on that list. Number 5. 'Tencent' is a Chinese technology and entertaining conglomerate, its subsidiaries globally marketing various Internet-related services and products, including in entertainment, artificial intelligence, and other technology. But looking at those PEs today, you would have to say there are plenty of NZ based tech companies that are on higher PE ratios than those on the top 5 Marlin list (with the exception of Amazon). I haven't researched any of these companies, I just pulled the numbers straight off yahoo. So I am making my statement on the presumption that there are no unusual one offs affecting those figures.

Incidentally, despite Amazon being down 37% year to date (verses -27% for the NASDAQ), I believe most of this Fisher Amazon holding is a recent (post 31st December 2021) purchase (IOW Ashley believes he sees value in the reduced price). I also note that Fisher have stayed out of Tesla (down 45% for the year) in any significant way. So you can't really say that Fishers are just 'following the herd' with their investment choices.

Some of these quoted PEs may be rearward looking in a non-current way. But while a further fall of 30-40% of the underlying fund constituents is possible - as you speculate Beagle-, I think some of these 'battered down' holdings may be showing signs of value right now. So I am of the opinion that if you want a fund manager to manage your overseas holdings, now might be a good time to buy in. Not sell out.

SNOOPY

PS I should note I am not a fan of buying Marlin at so great a premium to the underlying asset backing. I would instead be looking at the 'Fisher International Growth Fund', which is the unlisted version of Marlin run by the same managers. You can buy into that at asset backing value. While the underlying performance of the Fisher International Growth Fund has been poor over the past year, just like Marlin, (and particularly so since the beginning of this year), the five year performance is still very respectable - despite the 2022 hiccup.

PSS Not invested myself in any Fisher managed funds.

[Beagle]

Thanks for your thoughts Snoopy. I came very close to investing 50/50 into Fishers International and Australian Growth, (very similar to Barramundi's portfolio) funds in December last year and as you quite rightly state, this can be done at NTA, and while they don't pay dividends people can easily make their own quarterly withdrawals mimicking the listed funds if they wish.

Certainly in the last month since I posted that remark you quoted we've seen further substantial falls in the Nasdaq which at first glance gives the impression of more reasonable metrics but we've also seen a continuation of the deterioration in geopolitical relations between the superpowers and with high level's of ongoing uncertainty over the extent to which the CCP want to exert control over Chinese based tech companies and complex issues around demands for greater veracity around audit standards American authorities are demanding for Chinese companies listed in the US potentially the resulting negotiations if unsuccessful will lead to widespread delisting's of Chinese companies on the US markets in 2023 the situation at present is perhaps best described as very fragile from a stability point of view.

Speaking of stability I really need to see some more around how the Nasdaq is performing and on the geopolitical front before committing meaningful capital to Fisher's international growth funds. Biden explicit statement around defending Taiwan this week was probably unhelpful (broke a multi decade implicit undertaking and may have been unnecessarily provocative) is sending geopolitical tensions between the superpowers in a direction that makes me even more cautious in regard to the future regulatory framework around these dual listed companies.

The other risk is the massive number of companies in the Nasdaq with no earnings and those still on triple digit multiples causing such an ongoing downdraft in the tech sector as they continue their "reckoning process" (there's a real "show me the money demand" from investors in the US at present), people will keep throwing the baby out with the bathwater and the bear market will become more entrenched including dragging the S&P 500 and Dow into it. "Don't fight the Fed" and "Sell in May and go away" are the well known cliché's that very readily spring to mind !

We live in very interesting times my friend. Did you see the latest that Russian and Chinese fighter bomber aircraft ran a combined mission to send a statement to Biden as her departed the region ? An ominous indicator of future enhanced military collaboration between China and Russia ?

I suspect global growth is going to be much more difficult to procure for the Marlin fund in the next five years than it has been in the last five.
Might be better to invest in an ETF in the American defense sector ?

[SPC]

I can't agree with the notion that Marlin has to stay fully invested regardless of market conditions. They do scale up and down holdings depending on news and the sentiment on how a holding is traveling.
To suggest they must stay invested in a stock(s) despite bad news ahead is like driving down the highway and ignoring the bridge washout ahead. I've been an FF listed fund investor a very long time and I repeat my view that they fall hopelessly in love with their 'favs' and just can't seem to face the fact that things change and sometimes they have to move on, timing being very much of the essence. I don't pay fees so they can sit around, I want them thinking fast and staying on their feet.

[Beagle]

I can't agree with the notion that Marlin has to stay fully invested regardless of market conditions. They do scale up and down holdings depending on news and the sentiment on how a holding is traveling.
To suggest they must stay invested in a stock(s) despite bad news ahead is like driving down the highway and ignoring the bridge washout ahead. I've been an FF listed fund investor a very long time and I repeat my view that they fall hopelessly in love with their 'favs' and just can't seem to face the fact that things change and sometimes they have to move on, timing being very much of the essence. I don't pay fees so they can sit around, I want them thinking fast and staying on their feet.

Wish I had a job at FF. I can imagine they spend a huge amount of time schmoozing with wealthy and influential people. All those long lunches must be incredibly hard work ;) Anyway I see some of their favorites had a very good day today, Dollar Tree and Dollar General prove there's money in consumer staples and basics. Even some tech names bounced strongly overnight. Maybe the bottom is in or maybe its just a head fake Bear market rally that will fizzle out next week. Who knows for sure but I suspect the latter.

[Snoopy]

I can't agree with the notion that Marlin has to stay fully invested regardless of market conditions. They do scale up and down holdings depending on news and the sentiment on how a holding is travelling.
To suggest they must stay invested in a stock(s) despite bad news ahead is like driving down the highway and ignoring the bridge washout ahead. I've been an FF listed fund investor a very long time and I repeat my view that they fall hopelessly in love with their 'favs' and just can't seem to face the fact that things change and sometimes they have to move on, timing being very much of the essence. I don't pay fees so they can sit around, I want them thinking fast and staying on their feet.


SPC, different fund mangers have different styles. The 'move fast' 'quick on their feet' style is NOT how Fishers operates. After reading their end of March year presentations, it is quite clear they are in the 'research first' 'buy on fundamentals' operational game plan. They have little interest in market sentiment, except when negative sentiment creates a more attractive price range in which to buy an already researched potential holding. News is considered, but only in perspective. One bad news day does not make a company bad.

The other problem Fishers face is that they have reached a size, in the NZ market at least, where they can't just 'move on', because the liquidity on the NZX is such that selling out means 'collapsing the investment share price'. Getting out 'at any cost' is not a viable long term investment strategy. My 'beef' with Fishers, from my limited snapshot reading of their investment positions and thoughts is that they may have paid too much to establish some of their favoured investment positions. But I don't see any dud positions in the Marlin investment portfolio per se,

If there is a concern it would be their holding in Meta (Facebook). But Ashley is quite convinced that as that platform moves more towards short video clips and away from static presentations, that advertising will pick up. I can't comment on Ashley's judgement here because I haven''t studied the business of Meta and don't even have a facebook account myself. But a sudden drop in the Meta share price does not invalidate Ashley's investment case.

I can assure you investments teams at Fishers are not just 'sitting around'. They will be digesting market news in context, and figuring out how their investment themes are being affected (the usual answer being 'not much'). Just because they aren't buying and selling all the time doesn't mean they aren't doing anything. The decision to 'hold' is also an active investment decision to make. These guys are not just 'index tracking' chair warmers.

Having said all that, Fishers way of investing is in accord with a certain style. And if that style does not suit your own investment psychology, maybe you should find an alternative investment manager that operates more along the lines you describe?

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

I can't agree with the notion that Marlin has to stay fully invested regardless of market conditions.


On your fully invested remark. I did notice that Milford did have a 4.03% cash holding in their international growth fund at their 31-03-2022 balance date. I am in favour of keeping cash on hand myself for the opportunity to move on unexpected market events it provides. I haven't seen a fund declare a cash position this high before (not that I have looked at oodles of them). And good on Milford if they can find that opportunity that allows that cash to work in their favour.

This 'discovery' by me obviously means that a fund is 'allowed' to maintain a cash balance of significance. But personally, as a rule, I prefer a fund to remain fully invested. That's because if I thought cashing up was a good idea I could do it easily myself by selling down my position in the fund concerned.

SNOOPY

[SPC]

Yep fair observations Snoopy. No disagreement from me.
Because I'm invested I do retain the perogative of opining at times.
In the end I am placing my trust in them to deliver. If they screw up it won't break me as I could easily survive a 'closed market' for a very long time on cash. I'd prefer neither of these to occur.
I have pondered Milford at times and they seem to do well. I suspect an element of agility is at play here ?

[Snoopy]

Yep fair observations Snoopy. No disagreement from me.
Because I'm invested I do retain the prerogative of opining at times.
In the end I am placing my trust in them to deliver. If they screw up it won't break me as I could easily survive a 'closed market' for a very long time on cash. I'd prefer neither of these to occur.
I have pondered Milford at times and they seem to do well. I suspect an element of agility is at play here ?


SPC, I did run my ruler over a select group of NZ based fund managers, when I 'took over' the NZ Fund managers thread recently.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10315-NZ-Fund-Managers/page1

That 'select group' included Milford and Fisher. Yet, in the International investment space, neither of those two did I choose as the winner in what is 'a contest of strategies' and 'costs'. I think you will find it interesting, and maybe even surprising, if you haven't seen it.

Meanwhile Fisher funds have recently issued a 'video apology' for their recent dismal performance -just for you- that you might want to check out.

https://fisherfunds.co.nz/newsroom/video-library/the-smart-investor-series-looking-past-volatility/

SNOOPY

[SPC]

A very deep dive indeed Snoopy, thankyou.
I prefer the nxz listed equivalents as opportunities do arise from time to time to enter at sub NTA prices and the opportunity to destock on the NTA overshoots.
I'm not a trader and for me the above isn't trading, it's just portfolio management. I don't do it often. I did destock Marlin ahead of the warrant exercise intending to build up again but I stayed on the sidelines due to the price/NTA gap (chasm).
I did note and agree on your comment re FPH reaching stratospheric levels and the opportunity that presented to sell down for the inevitable fall. I agree it was a lost opportunity for FF and that was the basis for my previous comments. Perhaps MFT was in that camp too. That's where I'd appreciate a bit of pragmatic agility.
Thanks for your insights.

[Sideshow Bob]

Marlin Monthly Update - June 2022 (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com) (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MLN/393674/372727.pdf)

It gets worse - 33% premium to NTA.

Just getting silly......

[Beagle]

Marlin Monthly Update - June 2022 (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com) (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MLN/393674/372727.pdf)

It gets worse - 33% premium to NTA.

Just getting silly......

Agree its comical for a fund that's adjusted NAV has underperformed the index by a whopping 14% in the last year and many of their tech stock selections look extremely vulnerable going forward.

[tim23]

Still trading a fat premium to asset backing, quite amazing in this market when historically traded at about 10% discount.

[Beagle]

Hey tim23, its nice to see you back on here posting. Its really quite bizarre in the circumstances of the entrenched bear market and woeful market underperformance. 33% premium to NTA beggars belief.

[Charlie38]

On the other hand some of us have been on board for many years when they were trading at a significant discount to NTA. I believe my best purchase was when NTA was <20% discount to NTA. The holding CP for each of the 3 of them for me, BRM,KFl and MLN are still showing double digit returns. And I do like the PIE cash dividends coming in every quarter which I can exclude from taxable income under the current taxation rules. Boils down to time in the market doesn't it?

[SPC]

Agreed. All three of this trio would have to absolutely plummet for me to be even back at par. I'm not worried at all. Always loaded up in the darkest hours.
As I've said previously on any of these related threads you have to be active when managing these stocks. I don't do shares in lieu of div's, I'll buy more at my price when the price is right. A reset back to nta or less is great if you're a long term holder.
There's frequent barking about the the market price being well above nta but this has nothing to do with the companies. It's the buyers and sellers that drive this phenomenon. I haven't bought for a long time, certainly not recent warrant issue. DYOR and understand your timeframe.

[tim23]

I think with the premium so large could be significant downside, I mean imagine if they went back to a discount situation- sub 80c

[alokdhir]

Retail capitulation if happens then going back to discount is a distinct possibility

[777]

Just for accuracy, the NTA announced on Thursday last was 87.49c as at 14/6/22. So at 1.03 the premium is 17.73%.

The markets did move of course. Up on Wednesday and down again on Thursday and down again on Friday.

Not a holder at present.

[teabag]

I must confess I have never understood how the three fishes could trade at such a high premium to market. If they keep up their 8% "dividend", this must surely eat further into their NTA over time

[alokdhir]

I must confess I have never understood how the three fishes could trade at such a high premium to market. If they keep up their 8% "dividend", this must surely eat further into their NTA over time

Only if market keeps going down or remains subdued for 2-4 quarters more ....

[Sideshow Bob]

Will be interesting to see how this works out.....


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/400773

he directors of Marlin Global Limited (Marlin) are pleased to announce that the company will undertake a pro rata offer of warrants to shareholders.

The purpose of the offer is to raise capital as part of Marlin’s ongoing capital management programme and provide investors the ability to purchase additional shares in Marlin at a pre-determined Exercise Price. The offer also aims to increase the size of the portfolio and improve operational efficiency. The net proceeds of the offer are expected to be used for further investment in the Marlin portfolio.

On the record date, Marlin shareholders will be issued one warrant for every four shares held. The record date for the issue is 2 November 2022 and the warrants are expected to be allotted on 3 November 2022.

Each warrant gives shareholders the right, but not the obligation, to subscribe for one additional ordinary share in Marlin on the exercise date. The exercise date is 10 November 2023.

The exercise price will be $0.99 less any dividends declared with a record date during the period commencing on the date of allotment of the warrants and up to the announcement of the final exercise price. The final exercise price will be calculated and advised to warrant holders at least six weeks before the exercise date.
The warrants are expected to be quoted on the NZX Main Board from 4 November 2022 under the issuer code MLNWF.

[Rawz]

META is down 20% in aftermarket trading after missing earnings estimates.

META is in the top 5 holdings for MLN at 7%

[SPC]

20% off the value of 7% of the portfolio isn't going to do much harm.

[Rawz]

20% off the value of 7% of the portfolio isn't going to do much harm.

Yeah i guess.

META is down 80% from its peak. Wow. Something like $300b in value gone.

MLN true believers. Held all the way down. Respect

[SPC]

Yes, brave to say the least.
I've said before that at times they remain totally in love with self proclaimed high conviction stocks long after the divorce papers should have been filled.
I would expect bottoms to be smacked at the appropriate times by the board, if they're doing their job of course..

[SPC]

We'll be needing an update from Fisherfunds re Marlin's exposure to signature bank...guess they're trying to figure it out as I write....Wayne ?

[Rawz]

We'll be needing an update from Fisherfunds re Marlin's exposure to signature bank...guess they're trying to figure it out as I write....Wayne ?

Looks like 3.3% of NAV wiped out...

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/408253

....Signature Bank is one of the 22 portfolio investments held by Marlin Global Limited. The equity investment in Signature Bank, as at the most recent net asset value (NAV) (released to the NZX 8th March 2023) equated to 3.3% of Marlin’s investment portfolio.....

'If I knew how to post the south park 'annnnd its gone' meme i would. seems appropriate

[Snoopy]

Looks like 3.3% of NAV wiped out...

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/408253

....Signature Bank is one of the 22 portfolio investments held by Marlin Global Limited. The equity investment in Signature Bank, as at the most recent net asset value (NAV) (released to the NZX 8th March 2023) equated to 3.3% of Marlin’s investment portfolio.....

'If I knew how to post the south park 'annnnd its gone' meme i would. seems appropriate

Lesson for Rawz


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nVk25ZvTkU

SNOOPY

[Rawz]

Looooool :lol::lol::lol:

[ronaldson]

MLNWF looking like spec value only at this point, with the latest MLN NAV under 82c.

[Not too Flash]

Marlin Warrents interestingly priced with the head shares trading @ 99c......

[Nigelk]

The head shares are currently above the NTA, which is the opposite of what they've been.
Unless you're a Sharsie person, trading a few dollars, you'll never pick up a meaningful parcel of the warrants at a good price. They're just so illiquid.

[Hawkeye]

I purchased a few of these on a whim(looking back now I must have had a few to think that was a good idea), I was going to sell at a loss but they seem to be moving up in price recently, given the market conditions I would expect them to be trending down or neutral, any idea what's going on?

[Not too Flash]

With the exercise price estimated at 92c there is a reasonable discount on the current share price although not the NAV

[Hawkeye]

Thanks for that

[Sideshow Bob]

With the exercise price estimated at 92c there is a reasonable discount on the current share price although not the NAV

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/418753

Exercise price of the warrants is $0.92, which is also the current share price.....

[Not too Flash]

Small rise in the NAV today ....

[Not too Flash]

And 2 days before warrent conversion the share price goes to 94c ....

[SPC]

Yes I would be happy to put this in the 'very curious' basket. Let's watch over the next two days. I mean another warrant failure would not look good... would it..

[Not too Flash]

I see NAV is up 3 cents today

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421668

MARLIN GLOBAL SHARE ISSUE (WARRANT CONVERSION MLNWF)

On 10 November 2023, Marlin Global warrant holders had the option to convert their warrants into ordinary Marlin Global shares at an exercise price of $0.92 per warrant.

On the exercise date 3,802,140 warrants out of a possible 50,502,702 warrants (8%) were converted into Marlin Global ordinary shares.

The new shares were allotted to warrant holders on 15 November 2023. All new shares have the same rights as current Marlin Global shares, including participating in the company’s quarterly dividend policy.

The remaining 46,700,562 warrants which were not exercised have now lapsed, and all rights in regard to them have now expired.
The additional funds will be invested in Marlin Global’s current investment portfolio of stocks.

[Sideshow Bob]

Marlin warrants a bit of a failure, only 8%.

Still trading above last-announced NTA, and the warrant exercise price also above NTA.

[winner69]

Marlin warrants a bit of a failure, only 8%.

Still trading above last-announced NTA, and the warrant exercise price also above NTA.

Saved on brokerage

[Sideshow Bob]

Saved on brokerage

Indeed, but clutching at straws there.....

[SPC]

And they sold a few million new shares to punters at a small profit for the company to issue value which should cover off the upcoming div for those new shares. Probably covers the admin costs too, by and large a failure tho.