Trade Of The Week

[dumbass]

i thought if anyone is interested may take a more detailed look at a possible trade coming up

for the week. maybe a bit more detailed than normal with some sl, profit considerations as

well as short and long term perspective charts.

so ill have first go then maybe take it in turns to post something

may keep a running total of pips won lost as a team

just a bit of fun really

[dumbass]

long term andrews pitchfork

cable in well defined up trend from early 2006

[dumbass]

long term elliot wave

[dumbass]

long gbp usd

from elliot count probably in 5th wave of a larger 3

also butterfly in flight

[dumbass]

on shorter time frame

entry at 2.0320 and 2.0300

sl 20236

target 2.0510

[miner]

Eur/jpy to test 168.84ish (daily) if so then usd/jpy north also.

Cheers
Miner

[arco]

Some pairs that have potential for this week IMO...

Eur.Chf - Tweezer Top / BF PRZ

Chf.Jpy - Action in Gartley PRZ

Euro - Butterfly PRZ

[dumbass]

morning , im in agreement miner , i ve been trying out my elliot wave counts which

suggest gbp usd in a corrective wave 2 on smaller time frame 15 min i think

so if im right that wave 2 can not exceed the wave 1 low 20236

those entrys are just a bit of a standard fib level retacement so could wait and see for reversal would make a lot more sense ,

all bets off 20236 breached

[miner]

If you look at usd/jpy(daily) there are some nice potential U's that would tie in with the eur/jpy U which has done what I thought for the last few weeks,as in hitting U targets,so the U is getting bigger.

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

If we close ok above 117.80 then on the daily 119.82ish is a good U target for usd/jpy.

Keep in mind someone with a brick between there ears would be more onto it than me at the moment,so head on the block calls.

Cheers
Miner

[arco]

Hi Miner

I think there is quite alot of interest in your currency 'U' trades.
Certainly enough to warrant its own thread where you can
explain the technique in depth with charts, and post trade ideas.

Other posters can add comments, maybe even improve the idea.

The Miner 'U' thread.........commeth - we hope.

rgds - arco

[miner]

Hi Miner

I think there is quite alot of interest in your currency 'U' trades.
Certainly enough to warrant its own thread where you can
explain the technique in depth with charts, and post trade ideas.

Other posters can add comments, maybe even improve the idea.

The Miner 'U' thread.........commeth - we hope.

rgds - arco

No Problem Arco was thinking the same when I was filling this thread up with my tea leaf trading tips ,see my eur/jpy going ok tonight.

Cheers
Miner

[dumbass]

on shorter time frame

entry at 2.0320 and 2.0300

sl 20236

target 2.0510

up 110 pips so far for the sharetrader forex fund of funds

still more to come i feel , there was a potential print of a gartley on hourlies but i think now

in 5 th wave of third so should be more to come.

maintaining existing target

[arco]

Nice start DB

Did you get in with a real trade?
Punters may just have got in on Oanda @ 13.50 with a limit long, but it was very tight.

I took a wee scalp on Cable last night for 30 pips. Quick and easy.

rgds - arco

[dumbass]

morning arco , i got half a trade on , alas didnt drop to get full trade on

it was a real classic elliot wave count and still is , gives you a bit of confidence

[dumbass]

wild evening , it does feel like risk may be back on the menu

just reviewing those bullish usd patterns

stop out on gbpusd for +88 pips on the fund of funds balance

[arco]

Quote from last Monday morning..............

Some pairs that have potential for this week IMO...

Eur.Chf - Tweezer Top / BF PRZ

Chf.Jpy - Action in Gartley PRZ

Euro - Butterfly PRZ

Interestingly if we had placed orders on these 3 pairs at Mondays open price with an 80 pip stop loss, switchhed off the computer for the rest of the week, at Fridays close we would have.....................

Eur.Chf + 106

Chf.Jpy + 116

Euro - 80

Total available at EOW close + 142 pips.

Must check this idea every week. Could be a winner.

rgds - arco

[peat]

I'm not even sure what a BUND is but here was my trade of the week in the abnamro (demo) platform

http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/520/bund3hr06122007jm0.th.jpg


so I found out what a bund is...

"The Bund future is seen by many traders as the benchmark contract for all euro-denominated government debt. The Euro Bund has one of the highest liquidity rates in the European market."

...and my corn limit sell was triggered.

[peat]

The second short BUND position hit take last night
It really was quite a perfect trade except for one of them getting stopped out by a whisker.
http://img127.imageshack.us/img127/4246/bund1hour11122007kn6.th.jpg (http://img127.imageshack.us/my.php?image=bund1hour11122007kn6.jpg)

[arco]

Peat

Looks interesting.....................

What does the Bund pay per pip ?

[peat]

I set my demo a/c up in pounds

I made 52 pounds profit (not incl funding) on 100 BUND at +72 pips
so I guess its a bit less than a pound per pip per 100 bund

the BUND would only seem to move 100 pips per day occasionally - mostly less.

[dumbass]

watching at the moment but starting to look like there may possibly be a usd rally setting up for next week

i will post dailys on majors and see if anyones in agreement

[peat]

i was thinking this with USD/CHF and I had a small long from 1.0909 on the 29th which was up 50 ish at one stage but I stopped it out at break even.
To me the break through 1.0835 y'day signalled that there is more to come on the downside. or at least that its not the time to long yet.
I will want to see a rally that retraces between 78 and 99% without going to 101% if you get what I mean kinda like what it did from the Nov 22 low to Jan 04th but then on Jan 14th it hit a new low so , in my terms , failed , as it did again y'day when it broke the Jan16th low. all imo of course.

[dumbass]

eur dailies

uptrend stalling

looks like d wave may be done at triangle boundary

3 wave decline in e wave which typically will under or overshoot lower boundary

divergence on hourlies

retracement would be a good opp to buy in for run to 150++

[dumbass]

in agreement with you peat on usdchf only slight hint of divergence makes me think it could rally

have to show mrs dumbass a good time tonight so will post others tommorrow for your input

also big big night ,non farm payrolls which will set direction for next week

[dumbass]

suggested usd rally may be underway

i would use this retracement to enter long positions for what could be a good run north

d wave looks to be complete at 14950

loose evening star pattern and divergence on rsi

so looking for entry reversal pattern on d wave highest probability area around 14580

this is 23.6 of aug nov wave 3 and 61.8 wave d

[dumbass]

similar trade on cable

looking to buy into this retracement , highest probabilty 19575 for run to at least 2 ++

[Steve]

suggested usd rally may be underway

i would use this retracement to enter long positions for what could be a good run north

d wave looks to be complete at 14950

loose evening star pattern and divergence on rsi

so looking for entry reversal pattern on d wave highest probability area around 14580

this is 23.6 of aug nov wave 3 and 61.8 wave d

DA, thanks for pointing me here from the EURUSD thread.

Do you always determine your start point historically? I guess you must, or how else do you know it is a major point?

I am guessing that once you have the first 2 points, that provides a platform for the future estimated points?

Also, what RSI are you using and why did you pick specific variable?

Thanks
Steve

[dumbass]

hi steve

rsi is just the default setting in metastock ,14 period
i like divergences but other that not much for indicators

starting points for elliot wave counts will be from signifiacant turning points
but its not that simple as the price extreme may not be the orthodox top

just an example to clarify

a 5 wave advance will be corrected by three waves down but part of the three wave correction could have a new high in there, so the price high is not the orthodox top
this is an expanded flat or combination of corrective waves

currently eur usd in a corrective wave 4 which started in november
it looks corrective because the waves overlap and its a triangle shape
it didnt look like a top has formed so i believe there will be a fifth wave up to take out 150 ++ in a fifth wave and then a big correction should occur
this is only a prefered count and there will be other counts which will satisfy all the elliot wave rules so you must continually review your count as it unfolds.

hope this helps a bit steve happy to answer any other questions

[dumbass]

action heading towards lower triangle border

this wave down is a 3 wave which will likely reverse around 144 for long entry

waiting for confirmation before entering long