View Full Version : Diligent Boardbooks IPO
blakecb
03-09-2013, 06:53 PM
No no no - the linear regression channels were the important factor in ACC buying.
Yes absolutely :t_up:. You cannot beat a good linear regression channel at the best of times.
To clear this up: A linear regression is an approach to model the relationship between a scalar dependent variable y and one or more explanatory variables denoted X.
Thanks Wikipedia for that clarity.
In other words.....an average. The channel simply marks the extremes of either point, normally support and resistance.
Xerof
03-09-2013, 07:11 PM
Naked candle charts tell you all you need to know. All this clutter in the form of indicators can obscure the truth
read Steve Nimon
Looking back at charts with indicators all over them will show perfect timing signals for buying or selling, and people post this crap ad nauseum. What they don't realise is these indicators rewrite themselves as time proceeds. How do you think their inventors manage to sell their books?
blakecb
03-09-2013, 07:37 PM
Naked candle charts tell you all you need to know. All this clutter in the form of indicators can obscure the truth
read Steve Nimon
Looking back at charts with indicators all over them will show perfect timing signals for buying or selling, and people post this crap ad nauseum. What they don't realise is these indicators rewrite themselves as time proceeds. How do you think their inventors manage to sell their books?
Ahhh...the linear regression is a trendline (price/time tumeric as you suggest), so it depends what you mean by 'indicator'.
I would say the most important tools in stock analysis (after careful FA of course) are:
1. Price and volume
2. Trendlines
3. Support and resistance
4. Candlestick chart patterns
5. Various indicators
Certainly the various indicators could drop off the list and I'd be pretty happy with just using candle chart patterns. Indicators like everything else can provide further information to help fill out the picture. A lot of the inventors are dead, by the way, so not trying to sell any books.
winner69
03-09-2013, 07:45 PM
Hard to make out the channel lines on your chart blakecb - I ask whether any software calculated the trend line and the upper and bottom channel lines and what is the number of std devs used.
winner69
03-09-2013, 07:46 PM
Are ecoya candles any good in TA
nextbigthing
03-09-2013, 07:49 PM
Are ecoya candles any good in TA
Only if you've been drinking MOA
Xerof
03-09-2013, 08:14 PM
Blakecb, wasnt having a go at trendlines. I was meaning such indicators that are written these days for MT4 charting platforms and are very popular, especially for FX traders. There are thousands of them.
de mark, bunnygirl, fisher, bollinger, williams are all alive and well as far as I know, to name a few
each to their own, I don't mean to disparage your contributions here, and your perspective is quite correct for conservative investors. My calls are often made from just a casual look at a chart, seeing a pattern or volume oddity that gains my attention, and I'll take a closer look.
paxt
Xerof
03-09-2013, 08:16 PM
Are ecoya candles any good in TA
lol, no bloody good W69, they keep setting the graphpaper alight
winner69
03-09-2013, 09:16 PM
Blakecb - if one does the maths behind linear regression channels some interesting observations
The 567 close on 16/7 determines the bottom channel line to be .87 std dev away from the linear regression line
Todays close of 505 is above the linear regression line - that being 476 for today. For today the bottom channel is 388 and the top channel is 563
On closing prices DIL has been less volatile since that spike down to 569 than it was prior. Currently the downtrend is very strong. Mr Raff would say that over the next few days the price will revert back to the linear regression line - the 476 today declining by 5 cents a day
In theory one needs to see the price above the you channel line before one would say the downtrend is broken ....that seems some time off and the best bet for this happening is for the price to hang around the 500 mark and wait for the channel line to come down that far - maybe next week eh
I don't have any charting software or graph paper or ecoya candles - only old fashioned maths
winner69
03-09-2013, 09:54 PM
lol, no bloody good W69, they keep setting the graphpaper alight
The old graph paper ....I used to some neat looking point and figure charts on graph paper in the good old days
One thing with those it took the time series out of the equation ...as long as things were always heading upwards. They were quite illuminating the old p&l charts
Mista_Trix
04-09-2013, 09:14 AM
My goldfish and car just bought it, I'm super excited, bring on $20.oo!!
Balance
04-09-2013, 09:25 AM
DIL is now a traders' dream.
A stock driven in the short term by pure emotions.
DIL is now a traders' dream.
A stock driven in the short term by pure emotions.
DIL is now a FA's dream.
A stock with strong fundamentals whose price has been driven down by short term emotions on an issue that (hopefully) doesn't effect the underlying business.
Mobius
04-09-2013, 09:46 AM
Turmeric, I'm about to ask ACC to replace my left ankle; perhaps I can suggest they sell some DIL to cover it?
Belgarion, almost 2 million lines of code and a decade of non-stop development says "it ain't easy, or cheap". If you believe otherwise, form a startup to go head to head with DIL! If you are interested, my inside knowledge of the product is extensive. I am happy to consult on your project for just $1K a day. I certainly wouldn't take shares in your company as payment. :P
Just to clarify; DIL doesn't have any genuine competition. Comparing Boardvantage to Boardbooks is like comparing a clapped out Austin Maxi to a Porsche Panamera Turbo; they might look vaguely similar, but only if you view them from a VERY long way away.
No, I don't have a Panamera, I'm still buying early 911s.
------------------
How Many escape pods are there? "NONE, SIR!" You counted them? "TWICE, SIR!"
Balance
04-09-2013, 09:47 AM
DIL is now a FA's dream.
A stock with strong fundamentals whose price has been driven down by short term emotions on an issue that (hopefully) doesn't effect the underlying business.
Dream could become a nightmare?
Just joking!~
Balance
04-09-2013, 09:54 AM
Everyone is jumping back in. Wouldn't be surprised to see Milford buying at these levels.
Looks like they are also bailing out of Moa and Ecoya, and into THL.
Sorry to go back to this CJ because you were clear - but, just to clarrify, as one would expect you should pay tax if you buy then sell shares for a quick profit, but if you sell then buy for a quick profit you dont pay tax (providing the intent upon purchase is for a long term hold)? Just seems a bit wierd that both ways you make a quick profit yet you are only taxed on the former. Cheers in advance.If you sell, then buy, you have not made a profit from those two actions. You may have from the first but only when you link it to the original purchase. You may have from the second but only if you link it with a subsequent sale.
To clarify, there are many different Income Tax Act 2007 sections the IRD could try and ping you on:
CB1 - Amount derived from business
CB2 - trading stock
CB3 - profit making scheme
CB4 - Personal property acquired for the purpose of disposal
CB5 - business of dealing in personal property
While traders could be caught by multiple, a long term holder is only really concerned with section CB4. Therefore, you are only concerned with the time of acquisition.
The 'story' would be you bought as a long term hold. For capital preservation purposes, you sold. At some stage, the same share may or may not become a buy again. If it becomes a buy, you buy as a long term hold but again retain the right at any point to sell for capital preservation purposes. A couple of further points to note:
- ideally it would be a dividend stock or have potential in the future to be a good dividend stock (arguably all NZ co's if successful since we are a high dividend country in general) - otherwise, you are holding long term for a capital gain, which can only be realised by selling, which means you purchased with the purpose of resale - this is the part I have most issues with. The issue applies equally to negatively geared rental properties.
- ideally you dont buy and sell to preserve capital on a high frequency basis. Actions speak louder than words so if you are trading, saying to you are a 'long term investor' will fall on deaf ears.
When I say profit from a sell then buy I mean for example - if I have 1000 shares, I sell those shares for $7 and then buy back 1000 shares for $5 then effectively I would feel like I've profitted by $2000. That's the logic I was using anyway. Many who are long on DIL, from whatever starting price, may have done that I supsect, yet if I understand correctly that $2000 wouldn't be subject to tax right? Cheers again.Correct. Say you bought those first shares at $7 (for simplicity), they went up into the $8's and on the way down you decided to preserve you capital, selling at $7. Your profit is $0
Your view is those shares are worth $8, so using Sparkys 30% margin of safety, you buy back in at $5. You haven't sold yet so there is no profit.
Example 2
Say you bought those first shares at $2 (my entry price ;) ), they went up into the $8's and on the way down you decided to preserve you capital, selling at $7 (sadly I didn't). Your profit is $5 per share. Is this taxable. I would argue no as I bought for a long term hold and old sold as it looked like I was going to start losing capital, even if it was capital gain.
Your view is those shares are worth $8, so using Sparkys 30% margin of safety, you buy back in at $5.50 (I topped up a little the other day ;) ). You haven't sold yet so there is no profit.
You are trying to link two different investments, just because they are in the same company. YOu could argue it is a profit making scheme but I would disagree on that one as well unless your sale was a short sale.
winner69
04-09-2013, 05:10 PM
Wow ...another up day
Still above the linear regression line but not yet up to the top band of the channel (the best fit of 0.5 std dev)....even though Mr Raff would have preferred 1 or 2 std dev
Tomorrow another day ....the day a new channel starts ...one that heading up .....and remember what hoops said about these channels ....they often start with a real step up
Roll on tomorrow
baller18
04-09-2013, 05:27 PM
think baller applied for a few mastercards, visas and amexs to get his fill of DIL pickles today???
lol @ moosie
Has the uptrend started though?
baller18
04-09-2013, 05:39 PM
not quiet matey, just hoping for consolidation right now. need another weeks trading to confirm, so hope for a holding pattern ;)
Thanks moosie, but yeh should never panic. Lesson well learnt.... Amateur..
Never panic, never, ever.
Joshuatree
04-09-2013, 05:49 PM
5 stages in mourning but only 3 for an amateur share trader... Dumb to...... Numb to ...(Beach) Bumb ( i who has nothing).
PlatnuM195
04-09-2013, 06:31 PM
Relieved I didn't end up panic selling some of my holding too.
winner69
04-09-2013, 09:01 PM
I don't think traders are bothering too much with DIL at the mo but tomorrow could be interesting
Blakes linear regression channels shown more clearly below
Only 4 cents away from breaking through the upper band .... resistance broken and its all on they say .... or just a reversion back to the linear regression line
winner69
04-09-2013, 09:21 PM
I've lost count of the times you have used the word irrational moosie (re DIL that is)
I would say that a such a strong down trend over 3 months (shown in my chart) does not represent irrational behaviour ..... sudden sharp drops not lasting too long I might consider irrational, not somethings that has lasted 3 months
Anyway what do I know. Not much but the guy at the London School Of Economics probably has a view in hios thesis
baller18
04-09-2013, 09:23 PM
and I'm sitting here about to kill myself... sighsss
baller18
04-09-2013, 09:25 PM
Oh well, don't let the confidence knock me down, back to the books, back to studying more and more to increase my knowledge about the markets..
Whipmoney
04-09-2013, 09:29 PM
and I'm sitting here about to kill myself... sighsss
I don't get why you just don't buy back in baller? Surely you received something for selling them, can't you use that to get back in?
baller18
04-09-2013, 09:34 PM
I don't get why you just don't buy back in baller? Surely you received something for selling them, can't you use that to get back in?
Hey whipmoney, yup I do, confirmation of an uptrend and i'll be back in, however, right now confirmation is not quite there, and don't want to rush back in, and it forms a downtrend again... I'll have to shoot myself twice lol
Whipmoney
04-09-2013, 09:48 PM
Hey whipmoney, yup I do, confirmation of an uptrend and i'll be back in, however, right now confirmation is not quite there, and don't want to rush back in, and it forms a downtrend again... I'll have to shoot myself twice lol
Just out of curiousity.. why does one need confirmation of an up-trend before buying? By the time this happens (breaking 5.50 according to the linear regression post) you will have missed circa 7% of real upside, assuming you can even get on the boat at 5.50..
Personally, I back the company based on my own perceptions.. not everybody else's, and when the stock absolutely tanked I thought one word.. Brilliant!
baller18
04-09-2013, 10:11 PM
Just out of curiousity.. why does one need confirmation of an up-trend before buying? By the time this happens (breaking 5.50 according to the linear regression post) you will have missed circa 7% of real upside, assuming you can even get on the boat at 5.50..
Personally, I back the company based on my own perceptions.. not everybody else's, and when the stock absolutely tanked I thought one word.. Brilliant!
Yes, but I've learnt, never get into a stock when its in a downtrend, because you can't predict when it is going to end.
I'll rather ride the uptrend train this time, but who knows when the uptrend will stop or fall right? When the report comes out, we will have a much better idea.
Yes, the story of the company has not changed, they have indicated the revenue, cash earned has not been affected, but who really knows till the report comes out? Then the uptrend might keep forming, or not...
So rather be safe than sorry twice :)
Xerof
05-09-2013, 08:54 AM
What Sparky said
winner69
05-09-2013, 09:02 AM
Baller - if I was you I would put in one of those special orders, buying if shareprice hits 520
For all these reasons -
- a break out of that linear regression channel
- the candles are looking really good
- many have said the bottom has been reached
- the market has been irrational for too long
- most say fundamentally nothing has changed and still worth 8 bucks +
- broker reports have valuations way above 7 bucks
- on fundamentals still to price in 40%pa growth and new products
- world markets did ok overnight and sentiment is +ve at the mo
- you really want back in eh
Any reasons not to buy if it gets to 520 today. Besides being in a strong downtrend I couldn't find any
Baller, go on and get back on the train. Just think of the difference between what you sold for and 520 as the insurance premium in case of a total wipeout that was on the cards.
winner69
05-09-2013, 09:10 AM
Speculation, hope or fact?
baller18
05-09-2013, 09:19 AM
Thanks guys!!!
winner69
05-09-2013, 09:27 AM
Fact! Watch this space.
That's great news
Milford are gurus
baller18
05-09-2013, 10:22 AM
up 3.1%...
Just out of curiousity.. why does one need confirmation of an up-trend before buying? By the time this happens (breaking 5.50 according to the linear regression post) you will have missed circa 7% of real upside, assuming you can even get on the boat at 5.50..
Personally, I back the company based on my own perceptions.. not everybody else's, and when the stock absolutely tanked I thought one word.. Brilliant!
Whipmoney...1st thing Perceptions are dangerous...as the mind only allows you to see what you want to see ..
Uptrends breaking resistances and all that stuff
I drew a chart a couple of days ago and decided not to post it was a 15 min period 10 day chart showing the commencement of an uptrend Friday afternoon 30th Aug and confirmed at 475c on Monday Afternoon together with a lot of triggering buy signals. The reason I didn't post it was....
1...By the time I "Photoshopped" the chart and posted it the chart would be out of date and being a very short term chart that interval could have been enough time for major sell signals to appear with a huge drop quickly following. If that happened I would cop the blame and criticism that charts don't work from unexperienced and ill informed people..
2..Most people here haven't access to streaming data and state of the art programs to check what I posted..so blindly buying on short term buy signals runs a huge risk of losing out as most wouldn't be quick enough to exit out again if this quick rally turned sour..yes you get in closer to the bottom and the reward is higher but so is the risk
3..The traders (not day traders!!!!) lucky enough to have live streaming data watching refreshing charts after each trade from many monitors have a lower risk so their buy/sell timing is more efficient. ...but hey,,,what a life ..eh? glued to the monitor screen all day while you're "in" that market.
Sometimes the chronic market watcher who is always thinking about the market gets a sense of "finger on the pulse" feeling and with that a gut feeling that the bottom has been found...Remember it is TA at work here as your brain is just an organic computer tuned into a specific market area analysing market data behaviour to create your own personal buy/sell signals triggers (feeling)...
Your brain has tolerance levels of comfort and ease...each person has differing levels.......Some experienced investors like to live dangerously and invest to gain very high reward at a very high risk..They advertise their successes to everyones envy but we don't about their more than often failures
Here on ST most of the TA and charistist post medium term stuff..something which isn't out of date by the time it is posted...these posts many people believe is all that TA is but it is only a range of things that are suited more to the average person....that of lesser reward and lesser risk...
The more experienced risk adverse e.g the older group preserving their retirement assets go with higher dividend stuff...medium term TA and charts is not their style ...the more experienced conservative people rely on very low risk so therefore their rewards (capital gain) is very low but their income (yield) is a lot higher.
You have seen this word "experienced"
The non-experienced, in denial, stubborn, easily swayed, and the ill-disciplined investors or just idiots, can find other scenarios..one very common scenario practice is the high risk with little to no reward...e.g joining the hyped up party when its time to go home (buying in at the top) using a buy and hold strategy...
These buy signals that everyone seems to be talking about with Linear regression channels are that medium term stuff..the buy signals are later but they offer a less risk of failure.
winner69
05-09-2013, 10:46 AM
up 3.1%...
Hope those 2000 at 520 were yours mate
Pity you have to a bit more for the rest you want
But all the signs are good ...it's all up from here. Remember that hoop said that the uptrend channel starts a step up level ..... This an next week is the step up I reckon
Glad you back on th train baller .....520 was a low risk entry point
baller18
05-09-2013, 10:48 AM
Whipmoney...1st thing Perceptions are dangerous...as the mind only allows you to see what you want to see ..
Uptrends breaking resistances and all that stuff
I drew a chart a couple of days ago and decided not to post it was a 15 min period 10 day chart showing the commencement of an uptrend Friday afternoon 30th Aug and confirmed at 475c on Monday Afternoon together with a lot of triggering buy signals. The reason I didn't post it was....
1...By the time I "Photoshopped" the chart and posted it the chart would be out of date and being a very short term chart that interval could have been enough time for major sell signals to appear with a huge drop quickly following. If that happened I would cop the blame and criticism that charts don't work from unexperienced and ill informed people..
2..Most people here haven't access to streaming data and state of the art programs to check what I posted..so blindly buying on short term buy signals runs a huge risk of losing out as most wouldn't be quick enough to exit out again if this quick rally turned sour..yes you get in closer to the bottom and the reward is higher but so is the risk
3..The traders (not day traders!!!!) lucky enough to have live streaming data watching refreshing charts after each trade from many monitors have a lower risk so their buy/sell timing is more efficient. ...but hey,,,what a life ..eh? glued to the monitor screen all day while you're "in" that market.
Sometimes the chronic market watcher who is always thinking about the market gets a sense of "finger on the pulse" feeling and with that a gut feeling that the bottom has been found...Remember it is TA at work here as your brain is just an organic computer tuned into a specific market area analysing market data behaviour to create your own personal buy/sell signals triggers (feeling)...
Your brain has tolerance levels of comfort and ease...each person has differing levels.......Some experienced investors like to live dangerously and invest to gain very high reward at a very high risk..They advertise their successes to everyones envy but we don't about their more than often failures
Here on ST most of the TA and charistist post medium term stuff..something which isn't out of date by the time it is posted...these posts many people believe is all that TA is but it is only a range of things that are suited more to the average person....that of lesser reward and lesser risk...
The more experienced risk adverse e.g the older group preserving their retirement assets go with higher dividend stuff...medium term TA and charts is not their style ...the more experienced conservative people rely on very low risk so therefore their rewards (capital gain) is very low but their income (yield) is a lot higher.
You have seen this word "experienced"
The non-experienced, in denial, stubborn, easily swayed, and the ill-disciplined investors or just idiots, can find other scenarios..one very common scenario practice is the high risk with little to no reward...e.g joining the hyped up party when its time to go home (buying in at the top) using a buy and hold strategy...
These buy signals that everyone seems to be talking about with Linear regression channels are that medium term stuff..the buy signals are later but they offer a less risk of failure.
Is Dil breaking through the channel hoop?
baller18
05-09-2013, 10:53 AM
Hope those 2000 at 520 were yours mate
Pity you have to a bit more for the rest you want
But all the signs are good ...it's all up from here. Remember that hoop said that the uptrend channel starts a step up level ..... This an next week is the step up I reckon
Glad you back on th train baller .....520 was a low risk entry point
I'm actually not back on the train yet, will be very soon. Was working out my losses, I can offset it with tax losses, and buying back at this price, means I would have made a loss close to something around 8-10%, rather than the 20-30%. Just did a rough calculation, 8-10% doesn't sound so bad, and will gain it back, once it goes uphill...
I'm waiting the SP to settle around $5.20, emotion drove it right up to $5.3 at the start, and I was about to rush in. Patience, patience..
robbo24
05-09-2013, 11:00 AM
I wish someone in the know would tell me that regression channel is ok now???????????????
Mista_Trix
05-09-2013, 11:09 AM
I wish someone in the know would tell me that regression channel is ok now???????????????
DYOR, make an 'informed' decision, or take a gamble :-S
winner69
05-09-2013, 11:10 AM
I wish someone in the know would tell me that regression channel is ok now???????????????
Broken through the top of the linear regression channel {highlighted) ..... resistance broken ..... new uptrend channel is likely to form (so I am told)
Updated chart assuming a close of 530 today
Balance
05-09-2013, 11:19 AM
Doomsday merchants gone back to their dungeons?
winner69
05-09-2013, 11:22 AM
Mind you if we drew the channel lines to allow for the irrational fall to 567 on 16/8 you need to use +/- 0.8 std dev as the channel width. (previous chart ignored this irrationality and used the high point of the channel to assess the width)
On this basis we need to get over 540 of a break out .... if that happened a greater probability of a new uptrending channel
See - even TA can have (emotional) judgement in the thinking ... I didn't really believe that spike down ...it was irrational so didn't really happen
baller18
05-09-2013, 11:26 AM
Mind you if we drew the channel lines to allow for the irrational fall to 567 on 16/8 you need to use +/- 0.8 std dev as the channel width. (previous chart ignored this irrationality and used the high point of the channel to assess the width)
On this basis we need to get over 540 of a break out .... if that happened a greater probability of a new uptrending channel
See - even TA can have (emotional) judgement in the thinking ... I didn't really believe that spike down ...it was irrational so didn't really happen
With you TA skills winner, will it rbeak through the 540 mark?
winner69
05-09-2013, 11:30 AM
With you TA skills winner, will it rbeak through the 540 mark?
will if you and milford keep buying
charts don't make those sort of predictions baller
randoman
05-09-2013, 11:46 AM
Whilst linear regression and the likes are useful tools, they're still based on the assumption that prices will be distributed normally. DIL has a very large amount of tail risk - ie. it could drop or go up significantly beyond the regression channel depending on the outcome of the revenue restatement issue.
The breakout from the channel is encouraging but as everyone has already said, don't rely on that alone to make a decision.
Doomsday merchants gone back to their dungeons?
One swallow does not a summer make.....Yes Balance DIL could recover back to its glory days..but one should remember this "Fantastic No Brainer, $20 at least" stock reversed from $8.20 and technically shat itself:mellow:.
One should always ask the question why would any stock within its bullmarket cycle environment (NZX50 index) reverse nearly 50% in the first place with news that supposedly doesn't effect the day by day operations nor its overall growth.
I'm a realist...DIL dropped so I take the view that until DIL tells me otherwise I remain very cautious and will invest into this stock using the Bear Market Strategy...meaning I would exit if it fails to break through the next resistance level.
Good news technically is the Short term high risk investors should still be "in" as the short term buy signals have'nt been met with any sell signals. If the short term buy signals continue it will eventually trigger the medium term TA buy signals
Medium term indicators are waiting for the risk to lower before fire buy signals probably the busting upwards above that resistance zone which coincides somewhat with Winner's 0.8 SD channel....so I expect that to be around the 5.50 5.60 level.....Any failure at any resistance level should be seen as a must sell while DIL is in that bear market zone..with a buy back in once it breaks above it....This is the best way to minimise the risk during a recovery within bear period....the last thing you want is to be caught AGAIN in another "unexpected" downturn by having bought near the top of a sucker rally.
DISC: have none atm
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DIL05092013.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DIL05092013.gif.html)
blakecb
05-09-2013, 12:20 PM
Oh man, so much excitement and yet I've got such a busy week on. I want to do a more detailed response, and also respond in more detail to your questions winner69 on the channel, but will have to wait for Monday to do that I think. You are doing a good job of it though.
It will be interesting to see where it closes today. Breaking out of that channel indicates a change I think, but what change I haven't quite figured out. Is it an consolidation period (which usually occurs against the trend) within the wider downtrend, or is it the long-awaited tunaround, or will we see a test of the bottom again to make sure it really, really is the turnaround? Too many questions for me I think, so I am sticking to my figure of above $5.50 on good volume, and then a higher high and high low on the subsequent day, as good news and a platform for a move up..... or.... if we see a double bottom form I will be pretty interested as well.
winner69
05-09-2013, 12:26 PM
Hoop said
. One should always ask the question why would any stock within its bullmarket cycle environment (NZX50 index) reverse nearly 50% in the first place with news that supposedly doesn't effect the day by day operations nor its overall growth.
...cause the market is irrational hoop?
randoman
05-09-2013, 12:35 PM
TA metrics/tools are not based on any theory that says they will work IF prices are distributed normally as far as I am aware, so I'm interested in what you base your comment on above?
You set the channels a certain standard deviation away from the linear regression line. Price movements don't need to be normally distributed but if you assume that the price movement will be and should thus remain within the channel 68% of the time and should break 3sd from the line 0.2% of the time and that a break is a rare event, I don't think that happens in reality.
Sorry, I didn't mean to say that prices have to be distributed normally, just that linear regression doesn't handle outliers very well. I'm just raising the point that there is a lot of tail risk with DIL and thus the chance large price movements will happen with more frequency than perhaps assumed by the standard deviation approach.
I agree that the break of the channel is a good signal though :)
zigzag
05-09-2013, 01:03 PM
Milford is back buying!!!
You seem pretty sure of that. Love to know where you got that information from.
Balance
05-09-2013, 04:13 PM
Personally, I use TA to time entries and exits, not to pick stocks. So for me to be interested, I need to be convinced that its a value buy. This requires a robust forecast. Only when we get a handle on the FY14 sales and revenue forecasts can we be confident that its P/E of 52 is justified. Because if the forecasts come out in Oct lower than the current lofty expectations built into the price, then expect that downtrend to resume as the P/E deflates. Once a glamour stock takes a hit, the market becomes much more sceptical and more punishing - it no longer ignores the bad news in favour of the blue sky. That being said, short term bounce trades are great opportunities too - just dont convince yourself later on that your short term trade has suddenly become worthy of a long term hold.
I tend to agree with you but the point I am making is really for the newies here.
When the doomsday merchants come out, read their views but look for the real nuggets of wisdom which can tell you that the market has over-reacted.
As a very successful fund manager I met years ago in Sydney advised me - any mug can tell you when a stock is being sold off why it is being sold off. Do not need those mugs. Instead, look for those who go the opposite direction and tell you why you should be buying then. This fund manager made millions buying News Corp when everyone (including his fund) thought the company was going to be liquidated - by listening to a few contrarian analysts.
winner69
05-09-2013, 07:07 PM
Only up 3% today. Clearly a sell signal....
Now now Sparks .... sarcasm doesn't become you.
With your standing on the forum some might believe you and sell
Joshuatree
05-09-2013, 08:47 PM
Love it :) No FOMO
4. I am not, nor have I ever been Titiwhai Harawira's extra-terrestial love child.[/QUOTE]
baller18
05-09-2013, 08:56 PM
Hey Sparky,
Your the man to ask and who loves these calculations.I was working out the implied growth rate for Dil. I'm not too sure if I am correct or not.
I have worked out Dil's long -term average earnings growth to be 33.25 to justify its current P/E.
33.24 = 50(6/8.8) - 4.25
If its 33.25, is this easily achievable? seems to be..
baller18
05-09-2013, 09:27 PM
Thanks sparks!!!
I was just reading over the book by stock analysit by Harry Domash, and he has the formula,
Implied growth rate - P/E (AAA / 8.8) - 4.25
Thanks for the link, will study it now
winner69
05-09-2013, 09:32 PM
Hi Baller18 - I'm sorry, I'm not sure what your figures are based on?
I believe their earnings growth (note, I am referring to earnings and not revenue) will look more like 50% per annum.
This of course is based on the new product due next year, which I think will be easy to sell for Diligent into their existing customer base. They will also have excellent margins, and I also maintain they are still pumping out $5-6m in new business every quarter. We'll find out soon enough whether this is still the case.
Vitaliy Katselnelson, who I had the privilege of meeting last year has a formula thus:
http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/valuation-methods/value-stocks-like-a-pro-absolute-pe-model/#vitaliy-katsenelsons-absolute-pe-model
Might be useful. Katselnelson is a value investor in the Ben Graham/Warren Buffett style.
What factor would you apply for " earnings visibility" ...... Presume >1 whichbeffectively discounts the PE if I read it right
Just interested
Balance
06-09-2013, 07:46 AM
For those of you who think that it's a simple exercise restating DIL's accounts for revenur recognition, have a read of this :
http://www.proformative.com/questions/saas-revenue-recognition-accounting-treatment
Hi everyone...anyone has any insight on the latest notification? :confused:
06-Sep-2013 09:18:44
>
DISCPLIN: DIL: NZX Settlement and High Court Decision (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/3E5DE61E7582534ADD5D8946C781DBBB/companyannouncements/showannouncement/nzx/dil?issuercode=dil&number=240799&ispdf=false)
06-Sep-2013 09:18:31
>
DISCPLIN: DIL: Public Censure of Diligent Board Member Services, INC (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/3E5DE61E7582534ADD5D8946C781DBBB/companyannouncements/showannouncement/nzx/dil?issuercode=dil&number=240798&ispdf=false)
modandm
06-09-2013, 09:25 AM
there are some serious dope smokers on this thread. Neither Ben Graham nor Warren Buffet would touch this sort of small cap tech growth stock with a 6 foot pole.
Using some valuation metric you read out of a book to support your investment decisions in this stock is completely nonsensical.
You either believe the software is unique enough to capture a dominant market share, and continue to grow at a good rate, or you worry that competitors catch up and pricing power evaporates. The range of outcomes is huge, and valuation using a traditional dcf or iv model is totally arbitrary as the sensitivity to the assumed growth rate and discount rate is tremendous.
Mista_Trix
06-09-2013, 10:05 AM
Very well said and based on the poor internal governance(as indicated by long term breaches in NZX rules as well as accountancy blunders) one might think this stock and all the hype around makes it a risky play.
I remember similar hype around RAK many years ago.
...but this time it's different :-S
Balance
06-09-2013, 10:13 AM
Lucky you bailed, I'm kicking myself.
This company is destroying itself!!
Yes, Mista_Trix, DIL is destroying itself - $15,000 fine. You better get out while there's still some mugs buying at over 20% above the low reached last week of $4.20.
Move!
Balance
06-09-2013, 10:16 AM
there are some serious dope smokers on this thread. Neither Ben Graham nor Warren Buffet would touch this sort of small cap tech growth stock with a 6 foot pole.
Using some valuation metric you read out of a book to support your investment decisions in this stock is completely nonsensical.
You either believe the software is unique enough to capture a dominant market share, and continue to grow at a good rate, or you worry that competitors catch up and pricing power evaporates. The range of outcomes is huge, and valuation using a traditional dcf or iv model is totally arbitrary as the sensitivity to the assumed growth rate and discount rate is tremendous.
Did I read somewhere that Warren Buffett bought Apple stock when it was a penny dreadful?
No? Of course not - it does not fit Warren's investment style but we have posters here using Warren to confuse themselves!
Balance
06-09-2013, 10:17 AM
Very well said and based on the poor internal governance(as indicated by long term breaches in NZX rules as well as accountancy blunders) one might think this stock and all the hype around makes it a risky play.
I remember similar hype around RAK many years ago.
Sounding like Milford who considered DIL 'high risk' but Moa and Ecoya ok.
there are some serious dope smokers on this thread. Neither Ben Graham nor Warren Buffet would touch this sort of small cap tech growth stock with a 6 foot pole.
Using some valuation metric you read out of a book to support your investment decisions in this stock is completely nonsensical.
You either believe the software is unique enough to capture a dominant market share, and continue to grow at a good rate, or you worry that competitors catch up and pricing power evaporates. The range of outcomes is huge, and valuation using a traditional dcf or iv model is totally arbitrary as the sensitivity to the assumed growth rate and discount rate is tremendous.
Modandm, I can assure you that adequate FA modelling is possible even on a volatile technology stock like DIL, you will get adequate results with some effort. Simplified models such as Benjamin Graham’s are crude but will get you in the right ball park and are entirely fine if you are having a go for the first time.
I would rarely invest unless a company offered both numerical value and the less tangible positives you refer to. Without both you become one step closer to gambling.
Balance
06-09-2013, 10:40 AM
actually the more I think about it the more DIL and RAK seem very similar.
High growth potential based on wonderful products to sell.
Lots of hype about possible nasdaq listing.
The market thinks thier product are so good no one could compete.
Leading edge technoligy based products.
Market exspectations are through the roof(were through the roof for RAK)
Looks like DIL has a worse record than RAK when it come's to internal compliance governance.
You should be shorting the hell out of the stock then.
Think of the money you can make when DIL gets down to 23c?
Need a broker who can do it for you?
Maybe, WDT suits you better as a short? Oops - I forgot you are starting to like WDT - a start-up 25 years in the making!
Leftfield
06-09-2013, 11:21 AM
Just to say, I really appreciate all the opinions in this thread. Disc; I'm belatedly a DIL supporter, got in at 510 so happy for the mo'.
Baddarcy
06-09-2013, 11:32 AM
Hi everyone...anyone has any insight on the latest notification? :confused:
06-Sep-2013 09:18:44
>
DISCPLIN: DIL: NZX Settlement and High Court Decision (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/3E5DE61E7582534ADD5D8946C781DBBB/companyannouncements/showannouncement/nzx/dil?issuercode=dil&number=240799&ispdf=false)
06-Sep-2013 09:18:31
>
DISCPLIN: DIL: Public Censure of Diligent Board Member Services, INC (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/3E5DE61E7582534ADD5D8946C781DBBB/companyannouncements/showannouncement/nzx/dil?issuercode=dil&number=240798&ispdf=false)
Should be the last chapter in the options debacle and it means there is one less monkey on DILs back.
So if you can ignore the stinging pain from the wet bus ticket slap, its good news IMHO.
Balance
06-09-2013, 12:03 PM
yep own some WDT and some DIL but I consider both to be part of my highly speculative portfolio.
actually the more I think about it the more DIL and RAK seem very similar.
High growth potential based on wonderful products to sell.
Lots of hype about possible nasdaq listing.
The market thinks thier product are so good no one could compete.
Leading edge technoligy based products.
Market exspectations are through the roof(were through the roof for RAK)
Looks like DIL has a worse record than RAK when it come's to internal compliance governance.
You feel that DIL is like Rakon, and you are happy to hold DIL shares?
Outstanding. The market needs more like you.
:D
Thank you!
Should be the last chapter in the options debacle and it means there is one less monkey on DILs back.
So if you can ignore the stinging pain from the wet bus ticket slap, its good news IMHO.
baller18
06-09-2013, 01:27 PM
Mind you if we drew the channel lines to allow for the irrational fall to 567 on 16/8 you need to use +/- 0.8 std dev as the channel width. (previous chart ignored this irrationality and used the high point of the channel to assess the width)
On this basis we need to get over 540 of a break out .... if that happened a greater probability of a new uptrending channel
See - even TA can have (emotional) judgement in the thinking ... I didn't really believe that spike down ...it was irrational so didn't really happen
Think you might be right about the 540 break winner.
The bulls pushed it above 540, and now its below 540..
Few more interesting hours, to see where it ends today.
ddrone
06-09-2013, 01:31 PM
What is going on with all these tiny trades that keep bumping the price above 5.40?
Baddarcy
06-09-2013, 01:31 PM
Think you might be right about the 540 break winner.
The bulls pushed it above 540, and now its below 540..
Few more interesting hours, to see where it ends today.
Is Sell Botty back?
robbo24
06-09-2013, 01:46 PM
Is Sell Botty back?
Oh no not the botty bandit!!!
winner69
06-09-2013, 03:07 PM
Think you might be right about the 540 break winner.
The bulls pushed it above 540, and now its below 540..
Few more interesting hours, to see where it ends today.
Baller ....just remember the trend lines are going down at 5 cents a day ...so even if DIL hangs in at around this level it 'technically' has broken through resistance ....good sign
winner69
06-09-2013, 04:23 PM
4.20 was a bargin , i hope all you traders made a small fortune here.. we trade dividend paying stock only by deed of trust and company directors policies.. I think all you individual investors dont know how lucky you are!
hope you all make lots from xero and dil..
Only a few thou changed hands at 420 the other day .... A few thou more in the 430s when baller et all bailed
Yep ..only small fortunes made by some
baller18
06-09-2013, 04:27 PM
Only a few thou changed hands at 420 the other day .... A few thou more in the 430s when baller et all bailed
Yep ..only small fortunes made by some
Good hard lesson learnt...
winner69
06-09-2013, 04:35 PM
Only a few thou changed hands at 420 the other day .... A few thou more in the 430s when baller et all bailed
Yep ..only small fortunes made by some
Don't fret baller ...you may still have made the right decision and look back and I say 'jeez I glad I bailed at 435'
winner69
06-09-2013, 08:05 PM
hey baller
see what can happen when a long linear regression channel is smashed .... resistance broken (took a few days before it burst through) and it is all on
Will the DIL chart look like this in a few days / weeks
baller18
06-09-2013, 09:42 PM
hey baller
see what can happen when a long linear regression channel is smashed .... resistance broken (took a few days before it burst through) and it is all on
Will the DIL chart look like this in a few days / weeks
Man, your making me really want to get back in winner!!!!
But, i keep telling myself I have to be,
patient, patient, patience, patience, patient, patient, patience.
Dont panick, never, ever... lol
I think this might be the time to not be patient!!! lol
I would agree Hancock’s that technology stocks often seem to attract exuberant investment with little consideration to risk, perhaps that’s one characteristic that makes them more volatile than most.
All companies and sectors have risks and new investors should be cognisant of what those risks are and importantly also, the likelihood of those risks coming to fruition.
I generally use TA when I decide to enter or exit a stock, sometime just for interest along the way. Many years ago I decided that the relatively unique and sensible tax legislation we have here in NZ made trading less lucrative than analytical value investing.
In the case of DIL, fundamental valuations are well above present SP, there are growth prospects on the horizon, the risks are what they are, and IMO the risk/reward position appears to be entirely satisfactory at this point in time.
Disc: Holding
winner69
07-09-2013, 10:54 AM
Oh shucks ... I think Hancocks just told me off
However I agree with many of his What Ifs ....especially this one . What IF: The margins of safety calculations are all incorrect? And the share is actually over-valued today!
Never mind .... Next week is another week on the market and anything can happen
Te Whetu
07-09-2013, 12:12 PM
My comments below should not be construed as advice. Disc: I hold DIL as ~15% of my portfolio (significantly overweight).
What IF: Boardbooks are actually just a novelty item that can be replaced by an application or program attached to any soon to be marketed or updated device i.e. look at personal GPS mapping systems; mine has mainly been replaced by my iPhone when I visit towns and countries.
Real risk. However, you could say the same about any technology stock which relies on IP... e.g. Apple or Google.
What IF: Any of the 9 Most Dangerous Cloud Security Threats are brought to the fore by a notorious well advertised breech?
Data Breaches
Data Loss
Account Or Service Hijacking
Insecure Interfaces And APIs
Denial Of Service
Malicious Insiders
Abuse Of Cloud Services
Insufficient Due Diligence (users rushing to adopt)
Shared Technology Vulnerabilities
Real risk. Albeit, most of these risks can be mitigated or removed. Also, a risk for any online business which keeps sensitive information, e.g. banks.
What IF: The cloud (which is just a server farm somewhere) is eventually identified as being ideal for personal books, music, movies, and documents etc. but because of security issues not recommended for information of a corporate or sensitive nature.
Server risk is a risk adopted from doing business online. I note, corporates are not going back to pen and paper; also, the cloud is far more secure than physical documents, laptops, memory sticks, CDs etc. Therefore, NOT a material risk to investors.
What IF: The server farm is vulnerable to fire, power failure (supply to servers & essential cooling plant), natural disaster i.e. flood, earthquake or tsunami. Where are the servers located?
I'm assuming that Diligent has the sense to build in redundancy (not an unreasonable assumption). Based on this, NOT a material risk to investors.
What IF: The margins of safety calculations are all incorrect? And the share is actually over-valued today!
Margin of safety cannot be incorrect. The safer you want to be the larger it is. It does not guarantee safety. However, underlying valuation may be incorrect. Therefore, I would say your "what if" is not a material risk. However, there is a real risk that an investor incorrectly values an investment in the first place. This risk is amplified for an amateur investor. A diversified portfolio can significantly reduce this risk.
What IF: Diligent has lost a hell of a lot of credibility, regardless of the size of the issue, bad press sticks and board members are usually well read.
Real risk. But also a real risk to most b2b businesses which deal with confidential information. Once again, a diversified portfolio can reduce this risk. Also, you could try to pick companies which have a high quality board and/or companies for which you consider the quality of the board has been factored into the share price.
What happens to the share price then?
In most of the above examples. The share price will decline. That is the nature off downside risk. There is also upside risk.
Hancock - who do get out of bed in the morning with s much that could possibly go wrong!
What's you favourite stock for us to do what if analysis on. And what makes you think DIL haven't thought about all of those and taken steps to eliminate/mitigate/minimise/monitor/etc
lowrolling
09-09-2013, 09:32 AM
This "margin of safety" is the theory that underpins Ben Graham's book, The Intelligent Investor, which I love to go back and read again several times a year.
What version do you read/would you recommend reading?
I had a look and found multiple versions of "The Intelligent Investor".
Thanks in advance.
Mobius
09-09-2013, 10:33 AM
I want to address Hancocks' issues directly, having some knowledge of these areas.
What IF: Boardbooks are actually just a novelty item that can be replaced by an application or program attached to any soon to be marketed or updated device
As I have pointed out numerous times, this just isn't going to happen. Boardbooks is targeted extremely narrowly at the Board members, the board meetings and the compilation and distribution of the materials. It is not possible for a generalised product to achieve what Boardbooks does. No generalised product would be attractive to Board members either, as far too much training would be required, and far too much "useless stuff(tm)" would be included in the product. Directors have a very specific set of requirements for replacing physical board papers, and Boardbooks addresses all of them very well indeed. Or do you think that working in the space for a decade, and servicing a good proportion of the world's biggest and most famous companies has not allowed Diligent to hone their product to almost perfection?
What IF: Any of the 9 Most Dangerous Cloud Security Threats are brought to the fore by a notorious well publicised breach?
Data Breaches
The company has extremely robust anti-hacking technology, with Whitehat hackers trying to break into the systems every 2 weeks. Even though they have some inside information into the workings of Boardbooks ,they have never succeeded. Not once. Not on any level.
Data Loss
Diligent runs two major data centres, the second as a failover environment, and the data from the first is replicated to the failover site at intervals measured in individual minutes. Additionally, the data is backed up using industry standard methods which prevent data loss. A nuclear attack on the USA, or hurricanes, or earthquakes, or fires etc. won't take down Boardbooks, or result in data loss. Put it this way, if Boardbooks suffers data loss, then you are going to be worried about surviving, not attending meetings.
Account Or Service Hijacking
This is perhaps the only scenario which Diligent could be open to. HOWEVER, the social engineering-style attack which usually involves impersonating a genuine user, to obtain a new password is protected against very well at Diligent. It's very important to note that Diligent offers several security level options for their clients. Due diligence and corporate rules usually dictate which option they adopt when they become a client of Diligent. The personal information recorded about each and every user is not obtainable by social-hack type operations. There has never been an instance where a social hack has obtained a password (in my decade at Diligent, there was never a single attempt using this method, nor any genuine e-attack, either) but there have been many instances where legitimate users have been unable to identify themselves, and they have been politely declined assistance. Given the extremely comprehensive security around Boardbooks, any thief or spy will tell you that trying to obtain data this way is a waste of time. There are much easier ways to obtain board material than to try to get it from Diligent.
Insecure Interfaces And APIs
Once again, very experienced white hat hackers have been entirely unable to attack any device or system run by Diligent. The environments Boardbooks run in are very well understood, and the data is fully encrypted - so even if they could get to the data, it wouldn't mean anything. Trying to decrypt it would require a level of hardware and software expertise that would stymie the NSA for quite some time.
Denial Of Service
Diligent has an extremely robust system. One of the goals of that system is to withstand high volume D-DOS attacks. The system has dynamic IPs, which take only a couple of minutes to take effect once a DOS attack has been identified. No genuine attack has taken place.
Malicious Insiders
This is another scenario which cannot be instantly dismissed. What I can tell you is that ALL Diligent employees must pass a police background check, so it is unlikely a person could be planted within DIL. However, I guess it is possible for a trusted person to be bribed into illegal activities. Even so, that person could not get at any client data without being instantly identified by management. No DIL staff member is allowed access to user data without express written permission of the client. Each and every time a staff member's permissions as they relate to client data access are changed (either up or down) system wide emails are sent to operations management, who must see (before the change is made!) that the access change is legitimate. If you bucked that system somehow, you'd find your login credentials failing to work a few minutes later, and the police visiting you shortly thereafter.
If it's not instantly obvious: staff members cannot change their own permissions to allow access to client data.
Abuse Of Cloud Services
Swearing at the cloud won't get you any DIL data.
Insufficient Due Diligence (users rushing to adopt)
Many clients of Diligent spend many many times the annual fees for the product on Due Diligence. The company is extremely familiar with this process, and it can take many months for large clients to complete this process. The possibility of it failing seems very remote. No issue has ever arisen because of any failure in this area.
Shared Technology Vulnerabilities
I have no knowledge of the risks here, so can't comment, beyond saying that Diligent are not lazy when it comes to security. After all, a lapse or problem with it could have dire consequences for the company.
What IF: The cloud (which is just a server farm somewhere) is eventually identified as being ideal for personal books, music, movies, and documents etc. but because of security issues not recommended for information of a corporate or sensitive nature.
Too late. That genie is out of the bottle, and isn't going back. The cloud is large enough to store everything, and the DIL walled-off section of it can happily sit alongside your pirated torrents, and your ripped CDs. :P
What IF: The server farm is vulnerable to fire, power failure (supply to servers & essential cooling plant), natural disaster i.e. flood, earthquake or tsunami. Where are the servers located?
The server locations are (or were) almost invulnerable to any natural or man-made disasters. The servers are separated by thousands of kilometres, are not susceptible to tsunamis, fires or floods. Individual server farms could potentially be destroyed by a direct nuclear strike, or an asteroid impact but that's probably about it.
Please note that even if one site were nuked, and the other had an asteroid hit it, the data would still not be lost, and the disaster recovery plan would be enabled, getting all user data back up and operating in a very short period of time.
What IF: The margins of safety calculations are all incorrect? And the share is actually over-valued today!
Then the holders are foolish, and we stand to lose a lot of money when we sell. Investing 101?
What IF: Diligent has lost a hell of a lot of credibility, regardless of the size of the issue, bad press sticks and board members are usually well read.
Board members are unlikely to follow the business news in New Zealand. But even if they did, do you remember when Diligent's name was absolute mud after the float, when the price sank to under 20 cents? Did Diligent have trouble getting clients because New Zealand investors were bad-mouthing the company, and the management? No.
Any 30-second Google search would have found this thread, where the most awful things were being said and repeated about the chances of the company even surviving - let alone thriving. This is a total non issue.
I have seen the ‘hype’ about charts and intrinsic values etc. posted on other threads by amateur technicians that have only limited expertise and knowledge in the craft; and, I personally do not think it is fair information to present to novice investors and I hope they do not heed it from those sources! Hence the Devil’s Advocate.
We greatly appreciate you raising these issues so they can be addressed here.
--------
How many escape pods are there? "NONE, SIR!" You counted them? "TWICE, SIR!"
Yes...thanks to you both/all.
Must admit, I have difficulty reconciling the comprehensive safeguards that appear to be in place.....with the financial and other excursions that seem to have taken place. Must be an interesting company culture.
Disc. Have brought a few recently.
bonne vie
09-09-2013, 01:09 PM
What IF: Any of the 9 Most Dangerous Cloud Security Threats are brought to the fore by a notorious well publicised breach? - Hancocks
Data Breaches - Mobius
The company has extremely robust anti-hacking technology, with Whitehat hackers trying to break into the systems every 2 weeks. Even though they have some inside information into the workings of Boardbooks ,they have never succeeded. Not once. Not on any level"
Thanks also to both of you. Mobius - I know you mentioned in an earlier thread how long a go you worked for Diligent. The response you give above is that qualified for the time you were there or do you still have up to date info available to you. If you would rather not answer this a " non comment" is OK.
So it would seem that the largest risk having come to fruition for DIL thus far is:
WHAT IF: Some rather minor revenue accounting issues are uncovered requiring an indeterminate period of time to recalculate resulting in traders and investors going totally nuts and devaluing the SP by 45%.
Technology stocks generally seem to carry naturally volatile sentiment swings and exuberant buying/selling, more so for tech start-ups.
The learning from DIL for new traders & investors may simply be, take some care when jumping in, particularly into tech IPO’s, limit your exposure with diversification, research the risks, focus on fundamentals and fundamental analysis.
I agree, risk/reward positions are important also, generally the reward potential is higher earlier, so are the risks.
Stocks generally de-risk incrementally as they grow from their IPO towards profitability, some go through this process relatively unscathed, others have risks which come to fruition like Rakon and Blis.
4799
4800
nextbigthing
09-09-2013, 06:10 PM
I would be interested to know why you don't believe the Company won't perform well. I am not interested in your "what if" scenarios. In my opinion that was a very poorly thought through post. I am interested in what is likely to happen in reality.
Brighton Early,
Why don't you counter this with your research on DIL showing what is likely happen in the future based on factual info such as potential client numbers etc.
Cheers NBT
Disc not holding. Watching.
blackcap
09-09-2013, 07:35 PM
There is no need to post what has already been posted. In addition there is no real reason to think the Company will not perform well.
The company will perform well. I do not think anyone is disputing that. What is being debated is whether $5 odd is a good price or not. The company can perform well with a declining share price. Conversely the company can perform well with an increasing share price. It is all about future cash flow expectations and whether they are met.
Personally I believe it is too expensive and will not be buying at these levels.
blackcap
09-09-2013, 08:05 PM
Moosie.. good luck, I really do hope it goes well for you. But for me its a no go zone. I don't like the risk/reward parameter. That in itself is different for every investor. For me there is too much uncertainty surrounding this stock. I would rather pay $10 when a lot more is known and some of the risks have been eliminated. For instance we do not know what the re-audit is going to turn out. Who knows it could be (I am not in any way suggesting it will be) a big pile of cards built on hot air. You just do now know. Or the prior CEO or was it CFO (the one that left) may have really stuffed things. Or done some really good things. There is for me just too much uncertainty. I can just as easily double my money by picking All Blacks 12 and under v SA this weekend. To me that is more sure than DIL going from $5 to $10 in the next 3 years. (caveat that if NZ dont get 12 under I lose my money whereas my DIL shares may stay at $5) I guess what I am trying to say is that this (for me) is too much of a gamble at this stage. I prefer a gamble where I know more of the parameters and risks, or where the expected return is well above 1. Ie if DIL was trading at $1-$2 it would be a different story.
Cheers
robbo24
09-09-2013, 09:29 PM
I can just as easily double my money by picking All Blacks 12 and under v SA this weekend.
Time will tell if blackcap has any credibility or not.
Xerof
09-09-2013, 09:55 PM
Does anyone have a chart of NZ v SA? I'd like to see if the AB's are about to break out of the linear regression channel......
Does anyone have a chart of NZ v SA? I'd like to see if the AB's are about to break out of the linear regression channel......
Not sure about the TA, the FA looks great.........
4802
blackcap
09-09-2013, 10:22 PM
if it was all built on hot air don't you think the auditors would have picked it up a long time ago? they sure would be getting hammered if that was true. and I don't think Deloitte takes that too lightly! if you think DIL is hot air you must surely be truly terrified about XRO!
I don't know if this was back at me... but I am terrified about XRO :P
I don't think it is hot air btw but that was not my point.
Balance
10-09-2013, 07:09 AM
Moosie.. good luck, I really do hope it goes well for you. But for me its a no go zone. I don't like the risk/reward parameter. That in itself is different for every investor. For me there is too much uncertainty surrounding this stock. I would rather pay $10 when a lot more is known and some of the risks have been eliminated. For instance we do not know what the re-audit is going to turn out. Who knows it could be (I am not in any way suggesting it will be) a big pile of cards built on hot air. You just do now know. Or the prior CEO or was it CFO (the one that left) may have really stuffed things. Or done some really good things. There is for me just too much uncertainty. I can just as easily double my money by picking All Blacks 12 and under v SA this weekend. To me that is more sure than DIL going from $5 to $10 in the next 3 years. (caveat that if NZ dont get 12 under I lose my money whereas my DIL shares may stay at $5) I guess what I am trying to say is that this (for me) is too much of a gamble at this stage. I prefer a gamble where I know more of the parameters and risks, or where the expected return is well above 1. Ie if DIL was trading at $1-$2 it would be a different story.
Cheers
$1 - $2? That's a 100% range!
When DIL was trading at $1, it was too expensive then for you?
When DIL was trading at $2, it was definitely too expensive for you!
baller18
10-09-2013, 10:20 AM
Is this another breakout winner? Opened at $5.46, could possibly finish at $5.50 today
Balance
10-09-2013, 10:36 AM
Of course we know how the re-audit is going to turn out! To suggest otherwise is just silly! If it was going to be any different than that previously announced it would have to be further announced given it would be price sensitive.
Just wondering... what companies are you currently invested in?
Allowing sentiment to cloud one's judgement is not a good thing.
The dooms merchants on Diligent have gone back to nurse their emotions?
Balance
10-09-2013, 10:45 AM
Is this another breakout winner? Opened at $5.46, could possibly finish at $5.50 today
$5.57 now - sp action says announcement must be imminent - more like $7.00 by end of week if announcement comes out?
Baddarcy
10-09-2013, 11:01 AM
$5.57 now - sp action says announcement must be imminent - more like $7.00 by end of week if announcement comes out?
My thoughts have always been that the restatement of the accounts would lead to a very short term drop off (possible only lasting an hour or two).
While everyone with at least half a brain knows the restatement is going to lead to a reduction in revenue recorded in the accounts and that it has no bearing on the actual cashflow of the company or its future prospects...blah blah blah... the market seems to always be "surprised" when "bad news" everyone is expecting is actually delivered.
baller18
10-09-2013, 11:30 AM
Intraday high couild get to 5.8. RSI above 50 and the upper bollinger band is close to $5.70 at the moment, with every sell order at $5.61 being taken up immediately..
chad321
10-09-2013, 11:53 AM
Vamos! (Yes I'm watching the US Open). But go DIL ;)
comatose73
10-09-2013, 12:01 PM
Certainly appears encouraging, but it's on tiny volume.... how does low volume affect the validity of the TA observations above?
Disc; holding (and holding my breath)
goldfish
10-09-2013, 12:17 PM
Well im back in now today at 561, so expect the trend to turn back down lol, seems to happen a lot, upward trend i buy in it turns down...hope im wrong and right this time though.
Balance
10-09-2013, 12:33 PM
Mac the traders were out a long, long time ago. It is the FAers who have held on for dear life, some on the encouragement/instruction of ST members, that are rightfully exiting stage left now.
Rightfully exiting stage left now? On the day that DIL dropped to $4.20?
How wrong can you be?
iceman
10-09-2013, 12:40 PM
Rightfully exiting stage left now? On the day that DIL dropped to $4.20?
How wrong can you be?
Maybe he just meant Sparky exiting the stage ! Probably to the French Riviera to enjoy the huge profit he will be making from his large amount
of DIL :eek2:
comatose73
10-09-2013, 12:43 PM
Volume has been anything but small???
The TA observations are based on multi-day volume analysis.
Sorry, but how is this not low volume?
4805
Whipmoney
10-09-2013, 12:49 PM
Sorry, but how is this not low volume?
4805
Where do you get that volume chart from?
comatose73
10-09-2013, 12:53 PM
Where do you get that volume chart from?
WhipMoney, that's from BigCharts, here's the URL (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=NZ%3Adil&time=4&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=7%2F22%2F2013&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=50+200&uf=0&lf=4&lf2=2&lf3=1&type=4&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11&x=35&y=10)
Balance
10-09-2013, 12:57 PM
couldn't pry my shares out of my cold dead hands.
take it easy on blake. I believe you shouldn't invest in something you don't understand. unfortunately, (correct me if I'm wrong here blake) he doesn't understand what DIL does, so he, rightfully, doesn't buy it as it does not fit his specs.
however, not knowing a business should also give one pause for a moment before adding to a thread. its very easy to downramp a stock on the way down; I've had to defend myself many times on here over the past week for going against the crowd!
Nope - it's his know-it-all comments which I think is worth observing? Notice his reading of traders exiting, and his opinion that FAers were rightly exiting at the day DIL reached the lowest level on that particular day this year?
baller18
10-09-2013, 02:42 PM
excuse me? $5.76 woohoo go dil!!!
baller18
10-09-2013, 02:47 PM
hope the rest of your DIL is looking better now baller. don't you dare sell anymore now, ya hear! ;)
Yes Sir! I did buy some back today at $5.61, a little late to the party, but the party has just started
nextbigthing
10-09-2013, 02:50 PM
excuse me? $5.76 woohoo go dil!!!
Did you get in again Baller?
baller18
10-09-2013, 02:53 PM
Did you get in again Baller?
Yup I did, looks like it might reach $5.8 today.
Yourself?
baller18
10-09-2013, 02:57 PM
Whoa buyers piling up with one small parcel at $5.75, then $5.74 for a 1966 parcel!!
Go! Go! Go! Lets aim for $6 today! lol
nextbigthing
10-09-2013, 03:05 PM
Yup I did, looks like it might reach $5.8 today.
Yourself?
Good on you. No I haven't. Not because I don't believe in it, just because I haven't had enough time to fully research and understand the company. Therefore it's too risky for me at the moment.
Trading on emotions I would have bought at $8.20, sold at $4.20 and I'd be buying back in again now.....don't know what that means ;)
Good luck! NBT
Monty
10-09-2013, 03:14 PM
yes Baller - I am looking forward to the demand for the DIL shares continuing to firm and people deciding to hold on rather than profit take. Is $5:80 possible today? Does it matter? I am a long term holder regardless and have riden the ride from purchase at $3:40 to the dizzy heights of $8:20 and the slump to $4:20 just a few weeks ago.
I dont want to be a trader. I'll probably hold these shares in ten years time (short of a compulsory takeover) But my view is that if people were prepared to pay $8:20 a couple of months back, then that is a reasonable assumption that the shares should get back up there. sooner rather than later I hope. Hold the faith as Moosie told me.
baller18
10-09-2013, 03:17 PM
yes Baller - I am looking forward to the demand for the DIL shares continuing to firm and people deciding to hold on rather than profit take. Is $5:80 possible today? Does it matter? I am a long term holder regardless and have riden the ride from purchase at $3:40 to the dizzy heights of $8:20 and the slump to $4:20 just a few weeks ago.
I dont want to be a trader. I'll probably hold these shares in ten years time (short of a compulsory takeover) But my view is that if people were prepared to pay $8:20 a couple of months back, then that is a reasonable assumption that the shares should get back up there. sooner rather than later I hope. Hold the faith as Moosie told me.
I agree, but sometimes when it reaches such highs, such as the $8.20 could be on emotions rather than fundamentals (not implying the fundamental side of Dil), so does not necessarily mean all SP's go back to their merry highs.
Xerof
10-09-2013, 03:45 PM
That 'candy' taken on last weeks pinbar has just gone out the door having hit my target of a retest of the 200MA. Still holding a balance from sub $5 for longer term.
comatose73
10-09-2013, 09:31 PM
You missed the point. The TA is derived from many days of volume, not one morning!
Ok, fair point, thank you for that!
Balance
11-09-2013, 10:13 AM
New holder here. Was hoping I'd picked the bottom (or close enough) at $4.81, but looks like at least a couple of months in the red ahead...
You are looking good, Roberto.
Well done.
Sure looks like the doomsday merchants have gone into their dark holes again? When it is sunny, they hide in their holes. When it is dark and raining, they come out to proclaim that it's all gloomy and the sun is just an illusion. Hell of a way to live!
baller18
11-09-2013, 10:22 AM
wow, $5.80 just got crushed by a huge buyer. the market is going bananas over DIL again! glad my hold and pray tactics worked, looks like sanity has returned, although we still have a lot of work to do :)
I know, I thought $5.8 was the new resistance level, and it blew right through it!!!
fiasco
11-09-2013, 10:33 AM
First time poster but avid reader for the last several months. I've been following DIL for quite sometime and also purchased some when it dropped into the $4 range. I find this organisation to have great potential and it's always interesting to read the less supporting comments from those within this thread. While I'm still learning (for the past year), I definitely see DIL as a long term hold and removing the emotion out of my rationale
Roberto
11-09-2013, 10:33 AM
You are looking good, Roberto.
Well done.
Sure looks like the doomsday merchants have gone into their dark holes again? When it is sunny, they hide in their holes. When it is dark and raining, they come out to proclaim that it's all gloomy and the sun is just an illusion. Hell of a way to live!
Thanks Balance. Yeah, looks like I didn't get it too wrong after all! Didn't expect such a recovery before the restatement, so am very happy at the moment.
baller18
11-09-2013, 10:35 AM
$6.00 psychological resistance, followed by $6.20-30 resistance level and $6.60 craigs target after that
Think it will get to $6 today, then break through it again tomorrow :D
Balance
11-09-2013, 10:41 AM
First time poster but avid reader for the last several months. I've been following DIL for quite sometime and also purchased some when it dropped into the $4 range. I find this organisation to have great potential and it's always interesting to read the less supporting comments from those within this thread. While I'm still learning (for the past year), I definitely see DIL as a long term hold and removing the emotion out of my rationale
Congratulations for buying at such a good price and for holding on when the doomsday merchants were in full flight.
Balance
11-09-2013, 10:43 AM
$5.57 now - sp action says announcement must be imminent - more like $7.00 by end of week if announcement comes out?
2 days more to go
:D
baller18
11-09-2013, 10:44 AM
2 days more to go
:D
:D wooooohoooooooooo!!!
baller18
11-09-2013, 10:46 AM
Here comes the $6 mark!!!
iceman
11-09-2013, 10:49 AM
$5.57 now - sp action says announcement must be imminent - more like $7.00 by end of week if announcement comes out?
Watching the SP so far this week one has to wonder whether news have been leaking out about an imminent good announcement ! How else to explain the big rises ?
baller18
11-09-2013, 10:51 AM
Watching the SP so far this week one has to wonder whether news have been leaking out about an imminent good announcement ! How else to explain the big rises ?
I have been pondering the same question over and over.
But, much more experienced members, have taught me repeatedly share prices go up and down for no reason. Sometimes you can not justify it.
If someone has a good explanation for the SP rise would be awesome!
baller18
11-09-2013, 10:53 AM
Where has winner been for the past day?
Watching the SP so far this week one has to wonder whether news have been leaking out about an imminent good announcement ! How else to explain the big rises ?
The traders would say it's a linear aggression channel.
It's simply the beginning of a return to fundamentals, although I would not be surprised to see the SP stabilise about here awaiting the announcement.
I see no reason why Deloitte would not take all the time they have, and DIL will need to schedule a board meeting when they are done.
Monty
11-09-2013, 11:01 AM
another good morning. up $0.25 to $5.89. also watching the capitalisation increase. at $5.96 the capitalisation hits $500,000,000. just a nice round number.
winner69
11-09-2013, 11:01 AM
I have been pondering the same question over and over.
But, much more experienced members, have taught me repeatedly share prices go up and down for no reason. Sometimes you can not justify it.
If someone has a good explanation for the SP rise would be awesome!
Because the linear regression channel has been broken baller
Remember what Hoop said - if a new uptrending channel started it would be a step above where the downtrend channel ended. The step up could possibly be the width of the old down channel which was $1 ,,,, so expect the new channel to start about 640
Its all about sentiment baller ..... no need to throw the toys out of the cot now ..... everybody happy as larry (not that larry with a boat) ..... the world is happy so why not buy DIL
Still overvalued on the last 2 quarters declining cash flows .... but what the heck its all up from here
winner69
11-09-2013, 11:16 AM
fear, panic, greed! all in a lively day on the market. :)
yep .... fundamentals mean squiddly squat eh
blakecb
11-09-2013, 12:30 PM
Sure looks like the doomsday merchants have gone into their dark holes again? When it is sunny, they hide in their holes. When it is dark and raining, they come out to proclaim that it's all gloomy and the sun is just an illusion. Hell of a way to live!
Balance, you can't seem to handle any contrary opinion of your beloved stock can you. A little dose of context might help - I and others came on in the midst of many existing holders encouraging newbies to buy 'cheap' shares as they plummeted in value. There were cries to buy buy buy all the way down, and some of those who took that advice are sitting on a massive loss even now. Why don't you go back and quote some of their posts and call them looney for recommending a stock that subsequently dropped 40% in value...proving to be woeful advice at the time? The reality is for you, isn't it, that as a holder, it doesn't benefit you to do that. It does benefit you to lay into anyone that questions the meteoric rise and fall and rise....and fall?....of DIL so you can protect your holding.
The mistake I made was reading in fundamental concerns when I should have stuck to what I knew - TA. I just couldn't believe anyone holding for fundamental reasons would be happy to continue holding a stock that has offered an 'until further notice' restatement announcement. As I said, traders were out at the trendline break right at the beginning of this mess, so didn't affect me or those who are disciplined TAers. I have also said that from a TA perspective it becomes a buy when leaving the established linear regression and breaks $5.50.
This has to be the most volatile stock on the market at present, so might be worth holding your tongue until it goes back and stays at the lofty heights from whence it originated. I personally wouldn't touch this stock - and am happy to leave you all to make grand profits without me - because the management clearly leaves a whole lot to be desired, marred by a slew of regrettable mistakes that have tarnished this company. Yes fundamental concerns I know, but I have boundaries as a TAer.
I am happy for you to disagree with my arguments, but not to be so personally vilifying in your responses. Play the ball not the man, as they say!
robbo24
11-09-2013, 12:35 PM
There were cries to buy buy buy all the way down, and some of those who took that advice are sitting on a massive loss even now.
They should have DYORed...
Lorne Ranger
11-09-2013, 12:49 PM
Here comes the $6 mark!!!
If I was a trader (which im not, im a holder), and i have been buying shares up through the 4's and low 5's, I'd be cashing in just before it hits 6.00. Quick in and out, so to speak, expecting 6 to be providing some psychological resistance.
So i'm calling a few more days before we actually break 6 properly, expect to see it testing it few times and failing slightly until the traders are shaken out a little after a rocket like week.
No virgin chicken blood required for this prediction, just good ol fashioned guesswork!
Balance
11-09-2013, 01:36 PM
Balance, you can't seem to handle any contrary opinion of your beloved stock can you. A little dose of context might help - I and others came on in the midst of many existing holders encouraging newbies to buy 'cheap' shares as they plummeted in value. There were cries to buy buy buy all the way down, and some of those who took that advice are sitting on a massive loss even now. Why don't you go back and quote some of their posts and call them looney for recommending a stock that subsequently dropped 40% in value...proving to be woeful advice at the time? The reality is for you, isn't it, that as a holder, it doesn't benefit you to do that. It does benefit you to lay into anyone that questions the meteoric rise and fall and rise....and fall?....of DIL so you can protect your holding.
The mistake I made was reading in fundamental concerns when I should have stuck to what I knew - TA. I just couldn't believe anyone holding for fundamental reasons would be happy to continue holding a stock that has offered an 'until further notice' restatement announcement. As I said, traders were out at the trendline break right at the beginning of this mess, so didn't affect me or those who are disciplined TAers. I have also said that from a TA perspective it becomes a buy when leaving the established linear regression and breaks $5.50.
This has to be the most volatile stock on the market at present, so might be worth holding your tongue until it goes back and stays at the lofty heights from whence it originated. I personally wouldn't touch this stock - and am happy to leave you all to make grand profits without me - because the management clearly leaves a whole lot to be desired, marred by a slew of regrettable mistakes that have tarnished this company. Yes fundamental concerns I know, but I have boundaries as a TAer.
I am happy for you to disagree with my arguments, but not to be so personally vilifying in your responses. Play the ball not the man, as they say!
I ain't got no beef with anyone who makes contrary comments - in fact, it is totally necessary.
As for beloved, I learnt a long time ago never to fall in love with a stock. Recipe for disaster!
And where are the 'Buy Buy' comments you refer to? I read plenty of nervous comments from holders, seeking reassurance and nervous as hell.
My beef is with smart arsed comments like :
Quote Originally Posted by blakecb View Post
Mac the traders were out a long, long time ago. It is the FAers who have held on for dear life, some on the encouragement/instruction of ST members, that are rightfully exiting stage left now.
Rightfully exiting stage left now? Right - right at the bottom of price this year.
Rightfully is a congratulatory word - so where is the right now?
baller18
11-09-2013, 04:57 PM
Here's what the Moose sees, and it is looking pretty good! :)
4814
If we go by the TA's saying that the recent huge price fall was due to Mr Market knowing something we didn't, we can also assume the same on the uptrend. (I do not agree with this theory and think it's just stupidity in action on the way down and fear of missing out on the way up for those who exited!)
P.S. Forgot to add $6.60 and $7.20 forecasts from Craigs and Deutsche Bank respectively.
DISC - Holding quite a few DIL, not selling now, nor in the near future. DYOR to concur/disagree with moi!
When do you think it'll break $6? my guess is tomorrow :p, actually tomorrow will end at $5.95 and fri it'll break through $6
Also, can someone explain to me, if these investment bankers are stating their forecasts way above the current SP, are they buying?
Shouldn't they be buying, if the current SP is at a discount?
blakecb
11-09-2013, 06:11 PM
To be true to my word, and even though I won't personally be joining the fold for reasons elsewhere, I said I would post when medium term TA buy triggers were hit.
Before viewing this, to add a caution to moosie's above, tomorrow beware of the traders looking to square off the week. Slow stochastic is showing serious overbought levels, so you might want to wait for a good entry when this upward move takes a breather. Normally a move up is accompanied by good volume, followed by a reprieve (dip downward) on low volume. As always, as others have said, DYOR.
4816
Xerof
11-09-2013, 09:04 PM
Last weeks Pinbar pretty much signalled the final throes of the despondency phase.
Early this week, depression was evident (oh sh1t, I've sold at the bottom), followed by some hope (this thing looks like it's finally seen the bottom), relief (Milfords buying!, rumoured announcement on Friday), and today we have experienced some optimism (woohoo, it's going to close at $6, broker reports out with $7+ targets)
I'll leave it for others to anticipate what might come next, but it's not rocket science...
in TA terms....I am a bit more aggressive than most and accept it's not everyones cup of tea. I also have separate trading and investor accounts (and perspectives)
I think it was Balance who observed DIL has become a traders share....he is right, after years of trending, (one down, one very long up) we have at last experienced corrective moves and some volatility. Expect it to continue
winner69
11-09-2013, 09:12 PM
Good graphic that Xerof ..... is there any irony that Optimism is about where moosies disclosed cost is
winner69
12-09-2013, 08:24 AM
can anyone confirm that Milford is buying again? what was their last sell price as well? be interesting to see if they are paying a premium over that price...
The sale that took them 5% was 730 on the way up
We need to ask them what they sold the 4.9% for but obviously selling before the peak and on the way down, maybe in the 700's
Whatever they timed it well ..... may never see those prices again
Xerof
12-09-2013, 08:33 AM
A lot >$8, $7.30 and the rest at $6.0x average. Published somewhere that I cannot recall
Balance
12-09-2013, 09:17 AM
I have trolled through the announcements from DIL,
This indicates the following
Milford sold down about 1% in April(to lock in profits) but still own over 5%
ACC have been adding to thier stake lately
JP morgon bought 5% and swiftly on sold about half to thier clients(no doubt for a big profit)
This all looks very positive am I missing anything.
If this is the case Milford would have to inform the markets once they have bought more share's.
Milford sold out completely.
Doubt they will buy back until all issues resolved.
Milford buying back in ? Really ? So what has changed other than the SP, from the time they released the concerns voiced in the PDF below.
"Quote Originally Posted by audiav View Post
Milford have sold out
http://www.milfordasset.com/wp-conte...august2013.pdf"
http://www.milfordasset.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files_mf/activegrowthfundupdateaugust2013.pdf
Balance
12-09-2013, 10:50 AM
They have started buying back - fact!
Link?
Infor?
Balance
12-09-2013, 11:08 AM
That is all I am prepared to say for now. Watch this space.
Big loss of credibility for them if they do, I would have thought.
"Too risky for their clients" and "Moa & Ecoya both failing to deliver"
croesus
12-09-2013, 11:12 AM
I see MOA featured in latest TUI advert.....
Whipmoney
12-09-2013, 11:31 AM
lol, good old Milford trying to do a Goldman Sachs for NZ (pump and dump, slam and scram). they have list all credibility in my books now as well. were the only ones that had it to begin with...
I think they did pretty well getting out and given the opportunity (i.e. depressed price despite no significant change to the underlying fundamentals) I commend them for getting back in. Hopefully my Kiwisaver looks all the better for it:)
winner69
12-09-2013, 11:34 AM
I think they did pretty well getting out and given the opportunity (i.e. depressed price despite no significant change to the underlying fundamentals) I commend them for getting back in. Hopefully my Kiwisaver looks all the better for it:)
and the NZ Super Fund for all of us eh
Like Moosie I had / (have ?) some respect for Milford. So I look forward to them outlining their reasons for buying back in in due course...if that is the case. In the same way that they advised us all that they were selling down. Otherwise yes......I find it pretty disappointing as well for them to act in this way.
Fair enough you don't want to reveal your source. Any insight into what has changed for them though? Too risky for their clients not that long ago, and accounts not out yet, so I'm a bit confused as to WHY the change of heart? OR do you believe it is as other suggested and just a blatant pump and dump (or dump and trash) type scenario? Interested in your thoughts...
goldfish
12-09-2013, 12:05 PM
Maybe it was to risky at the price they sold them, and now at this price the risk is different, i dont have a problem with that, dont forget they bought in at 7 cents to begin with. Although i can understand peoples annoyance at them talking down the price a bit, maybe the media approached them and asked them.
zigzag
12-09-2013, 12:11 PM
These figures are incorrect. They sold out completely and then started reaccummulating.
OK. So how do you know this? And why should we believe you?
Snow Leopard
12-09-2013, 12:12 PM
These figures are incorrect. They sold out completely and then started reaccummulating.
Your right I have found the relevant SSH now (https://nzx.com/companies/DIL/announcements/236310)
Pulling earlier post next.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
zigzag
12-09-2013, 12:13 PM
I think you miss the point that Milford lame ducked everyone by spouting BS about DIL and is now buying back in. bad, bad practice if you ask me...
Where did you get that information from? Or are you spouting BS too?
winner69
12-09-2013, 01:21 PM
Incorrect! There is a term called market manipulation. Milford talked the stock down and stated that they would not purchase any shares until after the restatement. Shareholders sold based on the negative comments, only for Milford to then start buying before the restatement. This is market manipulation and very unethical!
C'mon early ...... You weren't one who sold on milfords negative comments were you?
I doubt whether they had any influence at all. When they told the market the weren't a SSH anymore the price went up another 10%....weren't spooked then were the small shareholders.
Somebody said risk is different at 8 bucks than it is at 4 bucks ....if in fact they are buying back
zigzag
12-09-2013, 02:18 PM
It will be interesting to hear what they have to say then won't it Snapiti? They openly communicated their reason to be out...so IF they are back in, I'll be very interested to hear how they reconcile their reasons for being back in with those aleardy stated for being out, particularly given the time frame, which for a start would not be consistent with their reason for being out...
I'm still waiting to hear why you think Milford are back in ???
Balance
12-09-2013, 02:21 PM
It will be interesting to hear what they have to say then won't it Snapiti? They openly communicated their reason to be out...so IF they are back in, I'll be very interested to hear how they reconcile their reasons for being back in with those already stated for being out, particularly given the time frame, which for a start would not be consistent with their reason for being out...
I am highly skeptical that Milford would be buying back in. I talked to an individual who sat in on a presentation by Milford last month. The individual said Milford was scathing of the options and accounting issues bedeviling DIL.
Unless they have information that the accounting issues are not as big a deal as they first thought.
In which case, good on them being man enough to reverse position.
zigzag
12-09-2013, 02:35 PM
I don't think you ever asked me, did you?
No, I haven't specifically asked you. But nobody else is saying, so I thought maybe you could shed some light on the issue. BrightenEarly is keeping quiet, Moose hasn't said where he got the info from, so I am still in the dark.
zigzag
12-09-2013, 02:51 PM
Thanks for your explanation turmeric. What is bothering me is that people on this forum are representing unsubstantiated rumours as facts.
zigzag
12-09-2013, 02:59 PM
I can't disclose how I know as that is very sensitive and I don't want to lose my job! I have put myself out there to tell all of you because I believe you deserve to know. If you are after proof wait until the FMA disclose that they are investigating Milford over potential market manipulation.
OK Brighton Early. I guess that is about as far as we can go on this subject. Will await any further developments. I hope you can see where I am coming from regarding anonymous rumours.
Balance
12-09-2013, 03:03 PM
I can't disclose how I know as that is very sensitive and I don't want to lose my job! I have put myself out there to tell all of you because I believe you deserve to know. If you are after proof wait until the FMA disclose that they are investigating Milford over potential market manipulation.
Thanks, Brighton_Early. You have gone out of your way to alert us all and it is more than appreciated.
You are a champ.
Cheers!
goldfish
12-09-2013, 03:17 PM
If they are buying its only going to help the price so theres a positive
baller18
12-09-2013, 03:54 PM
Dil making a nice little run in the arvo eh
Balance
12-09-2013, 04:03 PM
So This must mean it is milford fault that the sp dropped by 40% not the fact that poor financial governance meant that DIL's financial reports have been done incorrectly for years.
What a load of ****.
Must be ACC fault as well because they off loaded some share's too only to start buying when the sp reduced.
How can Milford have predicted the shares would of tanked by 40%.
If they believe in the company (which they stated they did even after selling out of the shares) and the risk versus return improved by 40%(which they could not have predicted) in such a short time they had to buy back in.
IMHO it looks like the old tall poppy senario at work on this thread
Hang onto your fangs, Tiger!
Milford sold out of DIL which is all fine and good on them.
What is not so good was them then going on the airways, media and now I understand, on presentations, to articulate why they sold out of DIL - 'too risky' for their clients.
There are those who get spooked by such talk, especially from an influential fund manager so there is a price effect.
If Milford has bought back, and prior to the accounting and governance issues being resolved, there is prima facie a case to answer - did they deliberately talk the price down to buy back cheaper?
Balance
12-09-2013, 04:09 PM
You are too much, Moosie!
I have a healthy suspicion that Milford is trying to talk down Diligent's price so they can buy back in at lower levels.
In this forum, some call it down ramping?
My suspicions as expressed on 7 August.
blakecb
12-09-2013, 04:13 PM
I can't disclose how I know as that is very sensitive and I don't want to lose my job! I have put myself out there to tell all of you because I believe you deserve to know. If you are after proof wait until the FMA disclose that they are investigating Milford over potential market manipulation.
We don't have any reason to disbelieve you Brighton, nor any reason to believe you. This is one of those things where you have now 'put yourself out there'. We will wait to see if your claims are substantiated, both on this thread about Milford buying in and on PEB about Stephen Tindall selling. You mentioned on the PEB thread that you couldn't see who was buying, so am curious as to how you can see Milford buying on this one. But it would be great to have an 'insider' on this forum, so I hope your information is verified, so that in future we can further depend upon your claims.
Xerof
12-09-2013, 04:17 PM
Hang onto your fangs, Tiger!
Milford sold out of DIL which is all fine and good on them.
What is not so good was them then going on the airways, media and now I understand, on presentations, to articulate why they sold out of DIL - 'too risky' for their clients.
There are those who get spooked by such talk, especially from an influential fund manager so there is a price effect.
If Milford has bought back, and prior to the accounting and governance issues being resolved, there is prima facie a case to answer - did they deliberately talk the price down to buy back cheaper?
I hear what you are saying Balance, but they are on record as saying they still like the Company. Perhaps, like some of us here, they thought the price had gone too far at <$5. I don't for a minute believe a word of the BS being bandied about on this thread.
Bright n cheerful has painted him/herself into a corner on a couple of occasions now, divulging info that ought to be confidential. No one is entitled to know what anyone does until they are required to announce it. I accept it's 'nice to know', but he risks being investigated. (It does happen)
I have an acquaintance at FMA, perhaps I should ring and find out whats going on. Then I could breach that confidence and blurt it all over ST?
winner69
12-09-2013, 04:28 PM
When Milford disclosed they were SELLING mid May at 730 the share price continued to rise all the way to 820 ......they must have been wetting themselves in those 2 weeks
Didn't seem to cause a rush to the exits then
Balance
12-09-2013, 04:30 PM
I hear what you are saying Balance, but they are on record as saying they still like the Company. Perhaps, like some of us here, they thought the price had gone too far at <$5. I don't for a minute believe a word of the BS being bandied about on this thread.
Bright n cheerful has painted him/herself into a corner on a couple of occasions now, divulging info that ought to be confidential. No one is entitled to know what anyone does until they are required to announce it. I accept it's 'nice to know', but he risks being investigated. (It does happen)
I have an acquaintance at FMA, perhaps I should ring and find out whats going on. Then I could breach that confidence and blurt it all over ST?
Question - is it market sensitive information which will impact on the sp?
That is the gold standard.
Xerof
12-09-2013, 04:35 PM
IMO, no, unless they reach 5%
but, yes, they should (and will) declare a new interest in their client newsletter?
Who else are they responsible to?
Balance
12-09-2013, 04:41 PM
Some very interesting individual's names on the register.
Very very interesting indeed!
Xerof
12-09-2013, 04:55 PM
I have two issues:
Firstly, how does showing K1W1 has sold ~ 500k since the publication of the last annual report, (with the sale you show being less than what I trade in PEB) become a statement that he intends to downsell up to another 10mill,
and secondly, what has that to do with substantiating your statement that Milford is buying DIL, and is being investigated by the FMA?
blackcap
12-09-2013, 04:57 PM
As an aside... I hope people on here do know that what Bright n Early just posted ( the top 100 shareholders and changes) is freely available from your broker and they can mail it to you in Excel format. I get it on many different companies to see who has been buying and selling. It is available on all NZX stocks. From memory, I think it is updated fortnightly but it could be monthly.
Balance
12-09-2013, 04:58 PM
I have two issues:
Firstly, how does showing K1W1 has sold ~ 500k since the publication of the last annual report, (with the sale you show being less than what I trade in PEB) become a statement that he intends to downsell up to another 10mill,
and secondly, what has that to do with substantiating your statement that Milford is buying DIL, and is being investigated by the FMA?
Xerof, information is power and power is information.
Let time now reveal more - up to everyone now whether to believe or not.
Xerof
12-09-2013, 05:14 PM
Ok, well, I have stated my position.
If I was ST, I would be thrilled to know a confidante is publishing my forward intentions on a public forum.
End of debate for me
no, not a journalist
Balance
12-09-2013, 05:18 PM
I never said he was selling 10m, but I did say he will me most probably selling between a third and half of his holding. He is not just going to sell 75k. If the decision has been made, as it has, he will be selling a meaningful amount.
ST selling a few shares and intending to sell 30% or 50% of his total stake does not make sense to me, BE.
He has professional managers and they all know you do a placement (as Masfen did) if you want to sell a lot of shares.
Otherwise, he will be driving down the sp for no real good reason.
I suspect the small selldown is a transfer to some other fund, charity and/or pay a few bills. Just a thought.
blakecb
12-09-2013, 05:30 PM
ST selling a few shares and intending to sell 30% or 50% of his total stake does not make sense to me, BE.
He has professional managers and they all know you do a placement (as Masfen did) if you want to sell a lot of shares.
Otherwise, he will be driving down the sp for no real good reason.
I suspect the small selldown is a transfer to some other fund, charity and/or pay a few bills. Just a thought.
Yeah I agree. I guess we will know on Monday as that is when the new list of shareholders and position changes comes out. That will be interesting.
We better allow this to become the DIL thread again rather than a PEB takeover...
winner69
12-09-2013, 06:00 PM
Milford manages 3 funds, all with different risk profiles. If they held DIL in their conservative or even balanced fund (perhaps having bought in a long time ago) the fact that the shareprice exceeded what they believe it to be worth makes it a share that no longer meets the risk profile for a conservative or balanced fund. Therefore, they have to sell it as they have a mandate for each fund. If then, the Milford Active Growth fund decides that DIL is now a candidate for that particular fund, or that the 40% drop in price puts it back into the risk profile of the Balanced Fund, then of course they are going to buy back in. This is all perfectly normal - different funds, different risk profiles, different investment mandates, different clients, different fund managers, different decisions. It would be ridiculous to suggest that just because one conservative Milford fund sold out, another Milford growth fund could not buy in. That is the ENTIRE point of having different fund types.
The only fund they have said they have sold all their DIL shares is the Active Growth one (newsletter)
The SSH notices said they had gone below 5% .... Brighton will tell us how many .... but I reckon they still hold for the other funds they manage as follows):
Milford Active Growth Wholesale Fund (2.55%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),
Milford NZ Equity Wholesale Fund (0.47%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),
Trust Investments Sustainable NZ Share Fund (0.18%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),
The Waikato Community Trust (0.12%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians)
New Zealand Superannuation Fund (1.99%), (Custodian - New Zealand Superannuation Fund Nominees Limited).
stoploss
12-09-2013, 08:01 PM
The only fund they have said they have sold all their DIL shares is the Active Growth one (newsletter)
The SSH notices said they had gone below 5% .... Brighton will tell us how many .... but I reckon they still hold for the other funds they manage as follows):
Milford Active Growth Wholesale Fund (2.55%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),
Milford NZ Equity Wholesale Fund (0.47%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),
Trust Investments Sustainable NZ Share Fund (0.18%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians),
The Waikato Community Trust (0.12%), (Custodian - TEA Custodians)
New Zealand Superannuation Fund (1.99%), (Custodian - New Zealand Superannuation Fund Nominees Limited).
If you go onto their website and read the August update , it will answer all your questions.All this info is available publicly .....
winner69
13-09-2013, 05:22 AM
So if milford buying wonder what price they prepared to go to?
winner69
13-09-2013, 08:04 AM
Sparky referred us to this site
http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.co.nz/
Latest blog about valuing high growth tech companies. The blogger got lamblasted in this example because he discounted DCF valuations too much for te liking of the mob
Interesting company that Tesla ....chart looks like DILs
Whipmoney
13-09-2013, 09:07 AM
Sparky referred us to this site
http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.co.nz/
Latest blog about valuing high growth tech companies. The blogger got lamblasted in this example because he discounted DCF valuations too much for te liking of the mob
Interesting company that Tesla ....chart looks like DILs
I must admit, Damodoran is an absolute guru when it comes to the mechanics of corporate valuation.
I haven't looked into Tesla so can't comment but Elon Musk (it's founder) is likely to go down as one of the greatest minds and influential people of this century. I would probably pay a premium for any company he is involved with...
baller18
13-09-2013, 10:20 AM
What announcement were we rumoured to be expecting?
robbo24
13-09-2013, 02:39 PM
The uptrend is broken, linear regression channel. SELL SELL SELL.
PS - No idea what this means
baller18
13-09-2013, 02:47 PM
The uptrend is broken, linear regression channel. SELL SELL SELL.
PS - No idea what this means
Huh? sarcasm robbo? If it breaks through $5.8 to $5.7, then could suggest sell
baller18
13-09-2013, 02:51 PM
Looking a bit dangerous if we refer back to Hoop's chart.. went to $5.71 then bounced back to $5.8... hmmm
Snow Leopard
13-09-2013, 02:53 PM
The uptrend is broken, linear regression channel. SELL SELL SELL.
PS - No idea what this means
The dead cat has reached apogee?
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Just end of week profit taking possibly. I'm not to fussed didn't really expect it to break 6 today.
baller18
13-09-2013, 02:55 PM
Through to $5.71..
blakecb
13-09-2013, 03:12 PM
Yeah it looks wobbly doesn't it. The DIL crowd is brave that is for sure.... this stock has extreme volatility.
Hoping for holders that $5.50 will hold up as good support. It may bounce around $5.50-$6 until the restatement.
robbo24
13-09-2013, 03:21 PM
Easy come, easy go.
Small volumes up, even smaller volumes down.
I ain't mad at it.
blakecb
13-09-2013, 03:29 PM
Just looking at Fibonnaci after this huge gain.
38.2% is $5.29
50% is $5.09
61.8% is $4.88
Typically with a strong move on good sentiment, 38.2% is what you are after, but the others are not the end of the world as well. As previously mentioned, $5.50 may be good support and take these out of play.
For those unfamiliar with it, from Wiki: Fibonacci retracement is based on the idea that markets will retrace a predictable portion of a move, after which they will continue to move in the original direction.
Balance
16-09-2013, 08:57 AM
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/181733.pdf
Looks like Fidelity replaced Milford in DIL.
winner69
16-09-2013, 09:08 AM
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/181733.pdf
Looks like Fidelity replaced Milford in DIL.
A lot of buying there over some time .... on the way to the top and all the way to the bottom
ANybody going to add them all up and tell us what the average is
iceman
16-09-2013, 09:18 AM
Are the prices paid really in AUD as stated or is that a mistake ?
Balance
16-09-2013, 09:27 AM
A lot of buying there over some time .... on the way to the top and all the way to the bottom
ANybody going to add them all up and tell us what the average is
Good for DIL shareholders and the company that Fidelity has bought in.
They are big boys and as we saw with them many years ago with BIL, they bought and kept buying from local fund managers who were selling out.
When the local fund managers were exhausted, Fidelity cranked up the action and sent BIL's sp above $1.00, forcing the local fund managers to scramble and buy back the shares they were selling to Fidelity from the market at over $1.25. Indexing, see?
From memory, Fidelity sold their 10%+ stake in BIL to the Singaporeans for a huge profit.
Balance
16-09-2013, 09:30 AM
Watch the local fund managers now take pause - whatever volume they want to sell, there's a huge buyer now in the ready to take the stock.
Can only mean one thing.
Balance
16-09-2013, 09:46 AM
woohoo, go Fidelity!!!
These boys want volume.
Local fund managers will not sell now to them.
In fact, they will be buying, I suspect.
Backs up BE's assertion that Milford is buying back in.
Expect Fidelity now to pull back for a week or so, let the sell volume build up and then, clean the offers up.
Balance
16-09-2013, 09:56 AM
Sellers already pulling out.
Fidelity needs the dooms merchants back!
lastmoa
16-09-2013, 10:47 AM
oh how the times change oh so quickly! I've been reading mr lynch's "one up on wall street". seems fortuitous now as I own plenty of DIL
(thanks again sparky for the light reading if you're still out there!)
Agree. Good book to read.
blackcap
16-09-2013, 10:56 AM
Agree. Good book to read.
'Thanks for reminding me about this book Moosie. Just bought it at bookdepository.co.uk.
Balance
16-09-2013, 11:04 AM
The uptrend is broken, linear regression channel. SELL SELL SELL.
PS - No idea what this means
So much for TA.
Takes a simple announcement of Fidelity buying to send the TAers packing up their charts?
Lorne Ranger
16-09-2013, 11:05 AM
Less attractive reading in the latest Listener...
http://www.listener.co.nz/current-affairs/money/linda-sanders-diligents-board-games/
Basically a school ma'amish telling-of for the issues we already know about, with no mention of any positives, even potential ones. Already dated remedial reading from a fish in a barrel type of journalism. D-
Balance
16-09-2013, 11:08 AM
Less attractive reading in the latest Listener...
http://www.listener.co.nz/current-affairs/money/linda-sanders-diligents-board-games/
Basically a school ma'amish telling-of for the issues we already know about, with no mention of any positives, even potential ones. Already dated remedial reading from a fish in a barrel type of journalism. D-
Planted by Milford?
randoman
16-09-2013, 11:14 AM
Less attractive reading in the latest Listener...
http://www.listener.co.nz/current-affairs/money/linda-sanders-diligents-board-games/
Basically a school ma'amish telling-of for the issues we already know about, with no mention of any positives, even potential ones. Already dated remedial reading from a fish in a barrel type of journalism. D-
Spot on. Read this last night at my parent's (probably the only generation that still reads/buys the Listener?!)
Balance
16-09-2013, 11:33 AM
Huh? sarcasm robbo? If it breaks through $5.8 to $5.7, then could suggest sell
In all seriousness, $5.80 now broken.
What does the chart now says?
Buy Buy Buy?
Mista_Trix
16-09-2013, 11:33 AM
Spot on. Read this last night at my parent's (probably the only generation that still reads/buys the Listener?!)
Hahaha, so true, I only ever see it when I'm visiting my parents - they get it with their weekly magazine subscriptions... print media, gotta love them.
Lorne Ranger
16-09-2013, 01:05 PM
Hahaha, so true, I only ever see it when I'm visiting my parents - they get it with their weekly magazine subscriptions... print media, gotta love them.
Ha. I only get it for Jane Clifton and the movie reviews!
In all seriousness, $5.80 now broken.
What does the chart now says?
Buy Buy Buy?
Balance ...To many so called "chartists on this thread using different time frame charts so one persons buy could be another persons sell ..eh!!.....This posted chart below is a daily chart designed for medium/long term investors ..not applicable for daily or weekly traders e.g I did a day trade on that bottom 420c day made 4% profit by using buy/sell signals from a 15 minute chart those signals did not show up on a daily chart...
.If you keep it simple (instead of consuming the last thousand of posts trying to figure out (without success) what the FA of this company is) then you see how easy a chartists life is ....eh?
OK DIL unexpectedly tanked big time,,triggering a mass of sell signals.. no worries..take that hit on the chin and sell at 7.20 red dotted vertical lines...wait until buy signals... buy back in at 5.50ish with a mass of buy signals, blue dotted vertical lines....easy peasy.....
no agony,
no stupid averaging down buying "cheap shares at 650c (without buy signals) and compounding your losses. ( I made some coin here using the dead cat bounce chart pattern)
no gut wrenching decision making,
no panic selling,
no losing sleep,
no excuses to Mrs Hoop why I toss and turn at night and grumpy as hell during the day
no writing hundreds of posts and waste many valuable hours on DIL thread complaining how stupid Mr Market is and advising everyone to hold on... don't sell and rely on faith that Mr Market will see sense,
This chartist bought in where all the buy signals**** are .... so I'm in the money atm a big blue upward arrow next to DIL on my portfolio
A masss of buy signals suggests DIL is back looking positive again (OBV and MACD leading the charge)...if that 30% chance happens and DIL sours again there's no problem, just push the big red sell button and take a small loss (profit)... and get it back next time (Average 70+% chance of getting it right)
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DIL16092013.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DIL16092013.gif.html)
Balance
16-09-2013, 03:52 PM
Thanks, Hoop.
You are a champ.
Balance
16-09-2013, 04:00 PM
There's a 1 share to sell at $5.95.
Watch out for crossings to happen at $5.95.
Meanwhile, still heaps of those funny little trades - 90 shares x 11 times?
croesus
16-09-2013, 07:39 PM
Moosie.. once you pay your Snakk debt.. Im happy to wager re DIL .. south of $5 in 52 weeks
croesus
16-09-2013, 09:49 PM
Not betting ... till we sort the Snakk debt....let me know when It suits you ... for me to call round and pick up that bottle of Red..
chin chin
Xerof
16-09-2013, 09:49 PM
Todays SSH is interesting in a couple of respects:
they have been largely catching the falling knife from high 7's and low 8's, haven't worked out the average, but it's not good, compared to market
and trading bits and pieces in and out, often same day, same amount, same price....hmmmmm
So they are in for the long haul I guess....maybe....gee, I can't believe two large funds got sucked into the euphoria above $7.00. They clearly don't have a chartist working with the team :p
baller18
16-09-2013, 09:51 PM
Todays SSH is interesting in a couple of respects:
they have been largely catching the falling knife from high 7's and low 8's, haven't worked out the average, but it's not good, compared to market
and trading bits and pieces in and out, often same day, same amount, same price....hmmmmm
So they are in for the long haul I guess....maybe....gee, I can't believe two large funds got sucked into the euphoria above $7.00. They clearly don't have a chartist working with the team :p
Hoop would have saved them a lot of money!!!
croesus
16-09-2013, 10:06 PM
Lorne Ranger.. re your summation of Linda Sanders well written article in the Listener.... I give you 3/10
A/ You may know about those issues... but a lot of investors or possible investors would not have.
B/ " school marmish " your getting carried away with your self... succinct and fair more like
C/ " already dated " rubbish.. this debacle is not over yet... hopefully for you , your not a $7 plus owner.
Not a stock I would touch right now.
Chin Chin
croesus
17-09-2013, 08:19 AM
Cheers Moosie....I hope my post I sent last night, wasn't taken the wrong way.. ( can be a problem with emails, and texts, and posts )
Will look forward to catching up next week, hopefully by then we will have secured the Auld Mug...
Cheers K.
( cant wait to see the look on the face... of Russell Coutts....and the rest of his cheating, foul mouthed, rich boy team )
chin chinj
Whipmoney
17-09-2013, 08:51 AM
They clearly don't have a chartist working with the team :p
I don't think many (if any) funds use/employ chartists. They're generally fundamental investors or quant funds.
Interesting article on it here:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/59187-why-technical-analysis-is-nonsense
DISC: not attacking TA.
Xerof
17-09-2013, 09:16 AM
And I was being facetious. Hard to get context into content....
Xerof
17-09-2013, 12:44 PM
So, the 'facts' as expressed by our insider, are actually fallacy
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/gaynors-milford-quashes-diligent-rumours-db-p-145971
be careful who you listen to, all sorts of agendas in play
Lorne Ranger
17-09-2013, 01:05 PM
Lorne Ranger.. re your summation of Linda Sanders well written article in the Listener.... I give you 3/10
A/ You may know about those issues... but a lot of investors or possible investors would not have.
B/ " school marmish " your getting carried away with your self... succinct and fair more like
C/ " already dated " rubbish.. this debacle is not over yet... hopefully for you , your not a $7 plus owner.
Not a stock I would touch right now.
Chin Chin
Ha! Your marking is about as subjective as her article! ;) Personally I like a more balanced approach to journalism, it's not clear she has a mandate to produce such an opinion piece. It reads more like a letter to the editor. But I respect your view to think otherwise. She could have taken a slightly broader view at the very least and given some context, rather than just a list of apparent transgressions. So i'm not sure it was really as helpful as she was hoping, unless she was hoping just warn people off the stock. But it's fair to say many people think otherwise but she did not even allude to this contrary opinion. That's my take anyway. I'll take your views views on my chin chin.
Roberto
17-09-2013, 01:36 PM
So, the 'facts' as expressed by our insider, are actually fallacy
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/gaynors-milford-quashes-diligent-rumours-db-p-145971
be careful who you listen to, all sorts of agendas in play
And is it just me, or does it seem Brighton Early has gone back and deleted all his/her claims! Nevermind that they were quoted several times by others... Embarrassing.
Mista_Trix
17-09-2013, 01:40 PM
So, the 'facts' as expressed by our insider, are actually fallacy
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/gaynors-milford-quashes-diligent-rumours-db-p-145971
be careful who you listen to, all sorts of agendas in play
Could someone with a login give a summary of the articles main points - thanks a bunch.
iceman
17-09-2013, 01:43 PM
Gaynor says the statements made on this thread last week about them buying DIL again are untrue
Xerof
17-09-2013, 01:52 PM
Gaynor says the statements made on this thread last week about them buying DIL again are untrue
lol, yes, precisely iceman
blackcap
17-09-2013, 02:12 PM
And is it just me, or does it seem Brighton Early has gone back and deleted all his/her claims! Nevermind that they were quoted several times by others... Embarrassing.
Embarrassing, or it is quite possible that lawyers for Milford et al forced Brighton Early to retract his statements :)
iceman
17-09-2013, 02:15 PM
Embarrassing, or it is quite possible that lawyers for Milford et al forced Brighton Early to retract his statements :)
That would be very embarrassing indeed ;)
Balance
17-09-2013, 02:18 PM
Embarrassing, or it is quite possible that lawyers for Milford et al forced Brighton Early to retract his statements :)
Not to worry, BE - just be careful of your sources in future.
We all live and learn.
Roberto
17-09-2013, 02:19 PM
Embarrassing, or it is quite possible that lawyers for Milford et al forced Brighton Early to retract his statements :)
Quite possible. Though that doesn't change the fact he seems to have been barking up the wrong tree. Unless other agendas were at play as Xerof suggested, of course.
blackcap
17-09-2013, 03:59 PM
Haha, that is funny, I guess we wont see Brighton Early again in a hurry! If it was a pump and dump I guess he did pretty well out of it! When did he start spreading the rumours? got a nice 20% gains or so right??
I don't think he will do well out of it if he gets investigated though. Recently they have been sending directors to jail for fraud! If Brighton Early has been ramping for his/her own benefit there are consequences. But really if Gaynor is saying that they have not been buying then our poster has been lying. Simply put but thats what it is. Guess we as sharetrader readers have to be very careful what we believe on here and who we can trust. A lot of underlying manipulation and agendas going on here.
tosspot
17-09-2013, 04:08 PM
I don't think he will do well out of it if he gets investigated though. Recently they have been sending directors to jail for fraud! If Brighton Early has been ramping for his/her own benefit there are consequences. But really if Gaynor is saying that they have not been buying then our poster has been lying. Simply put but thats what it is. Guess we as sharetrader readers have to be very careful what we believe on here and who we can trust. A lot of underlying manipulation and agendas going on here.
surely you cant be liable for anything on a forum on the internet can you? its not professional services or anything remotely close to it.
baller18
17-09-2013, 04:10 PM
surely you cant be liable for anything on a forum on the internet can you? its not professional services or anything remotely close to it.
Unless brighton early is brian gaynor lol!!!
blackcap
17-09-2013, 04:26 PM
surely you cant be liable for anything on a forum on the internet can you? its not professional services or anything remotely close to it.
You can be liable for something on a forum on the internet. Plenty of defamation suits etc on what is said and posted on the net. Plenty of jobs lost as well. You need to be careful what you say on here because if it does cross the line there is a chance proceedings will be brought against you. Something slightly different that sharetrading but still relevant..... remember the english guy who got 4 years jail for posting something racist whilst drunk.
From the hot copper site re defamation:
Real-Life Cases
Please see the following links for examples of legal proceedings relating to defamatory statements made online:
http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/sinodisp/au/cases/nsw/NSWSC/2011/999.html?stem=0&synonyms=0&query=leech%20green%20gold
— posting defamatory comments in online chat forums.
Lorne Ranger
17-09-2013, 06:29 PM
Unless brighton early is brian gaynor lol!!!
They are almost perfect anagrams!
I once received a cease and desist letter from a law firm during the NZ Commonwealth games for a flag my flat put up on our dingy Dominion road dwelling reading "Official Slum of the NZ Commonwealth Games", to satire against the stupidly vast array of "official" CW products. The letter was from a firm I'd never heard of - Bell Gully Buddle Weir. We couldnt decide if it was genuine or a retaliatory wind-up. Until we said the partners names backwards: Weir Buddle Gully Bell - We're Bloody Gullible!! Whereupon we knew it was a hoax for sure. Alas the wind took our flag a couple of nights later. It wasnt til ten years later we happened to pull up in Shortland street outside the monolithic offices of Bell Gully et al.
My obtuse point is (or could be) stranger things have happened than someone instigating a wind up, especially when money is involved.
Blendy
17-09-2013, 06:49 PM
Incredible story!!!
blackcap
17-09-2013, 07:43 PM
You sure it was a hoax?
History[edit source | editbeta]
Bell Gully is the result of a merger between Bell Gully & Co of Wellington, founded in 1860, and Buddle Weir & Co of Auckland, founded in 1840.
Quite possible Bell Gully Buddle Weir did exist.
Lorne Ranger
17-09-2013, 07:53 PM
You sure it was a hoax?
History[edit source | editbeta]
Bell Gully is the result of a merger between Bell Gully & Co of Wellington, founded in 1860, and Buddle Weir & Co of Auckland, founded in 1840.
Quite possible Bell Gully Buddle Weir did exist.
We knew it was a hoax... right up to the point we pulled up outside their offices on Shortland st.
Lucky the wind took the flag. Apparently we were breaching copyright! We thought that was stupid.
Aaahh those were the days huh?
Xerof
17-09-2013, 08:04 PM
Quite possible Bell Gully Buddle Weir did exist.
Yes, 1984 was when the two firms merged
They were well known by the nick of we're bloody gully bell in those days
watch out Lorne, they could still be on your case!!
blackcap
17-09-2013, 08:05 PM
We knew it was a hoax... right up to the point we pulled up outside their offices on Shortland st.
Lucky the wind took the flag. Apparently we were breaching copyright! We thought that was stupid.
Aaahh those were the days huh?
Sorry Lorne Ranger.. I read your initial post incorrectly. But that is one hell of a story! what actually eventuated? Did you ever take up contact with them or just leave it at that?
baller18
17-09-2013, 08:06 PM
Story of the decade for me!!
Wow, can dil get anymore interesting...
zigzag
17-09-2013, 08:09 PM
Sorry Lorne Ranger.. I read your initial post incorrectly. But that is one hell of a story! what actually eventuated? Did you ever take up contact with them or just leave it at that?
D for reading and comprehension. blackcap must try harder.
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