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View Full Version : PEM - Perilya set to expand?



qinshu
01-11-2007, 12:17 PM
Perilya is set to expand in a big way from 2 operational mines to 5 according to this article, and is cashed up enough to be looking to take over a mining interest in another country.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/Business/Perilya-aims-for-five-mines/2007/10/31/1193618965123.html

Seems to me though that with its relatively small cap and its great resource base it could be in danger of being taken over itself by one of our own bigger companies or an international group.

whiteheron
01-11-2007, 12:24 PM
ginshu

Yes, Perilya is a very good company with a bright future
Lots going on and all that money, over $1 per share in cash so the price is actually more than $1 less than the market price

A very much underrated company by the market

fihr
01-11-2007, 12:28 PM
I can't remember seeing another company where so many people see such a bright future, and where the share price just sits in the doldrums for so long. Seems many people believe in PEM, but not so many want to jump on board until they see it taking off.

Am holding mine at a loss at the moment. Based on its good prospects over the next year, I'm not worried.

Bobbyvee
01-11-2007, 12:44 PM
Whiteheron how do you think PEM compares with TZN?

whiteheron
01-11-2007, 10:42 PM
Bobbyvee

Comparing shares is fraught with many problems and difficulties, but here goes with a few comments that come to mind

Both PEM and TZN are excellent shares in my opinion ( I hold both and expect that I will continue to hold for the long term)

PEM is up and running profitably and pays dividends
It also has many projects at various stages of development and will no doubt be a mid tier company in 2 or 3 years
It is presently actively pursuing acquisitions and has the funds to do this

Although the zinc price is struggling a bit at present I see this as a short term thing, the medium/long term price outlook seems good
The lead price, however, has shown incredible strength this year but will probably settle back to some degree
Some of PEMs zinc grades are quite exceptional

PEMs share price has really struggled since the tragic death early this year and in my opinion is presently one of the most unloved shares on the ASX
At its current price I consider that PEM is an excellent buy --- I purchased an additional parcel last week at $3.81

TZN is not yet a producer, Angas being due to commission around mid 2008

I believe that Tala Hamza will be the real company maker for TZN but is likely to be 4 to 5 years away from production
It may have some country risk (low in my opinion)

In summary both PEM and TZN are well worth holding in my opinion
Which will be the best only time will tell

steve fleming
01-11-2007, 10:59 PM
Given the number of quality profitable mid-tier miners (of which PEM is one) reducing by the day, and with all the talk/rumours of industry consolidation in the base metals/mining sector, I would be very surprised if within the next 3 months PEM is not part of some major M&A activity.

Unfortunately for PEM it has a wide open register, making it ripe for a takeover. Fortutnately given its quality assets, any takeover for PEM is likely to be competitive.

Bobbyvee
01-11-2007, 11:30 PM
Thanks for your balanced comments Whiteheron. I have a significant holding in TZN (and Zinifex) but need to consider carefully the potential of PEM

OneUp
02-11-2007, 03:36 AM
"The lower cash operating margin of US$0.44/lb zinc resulted from the 12% decrease in average zinc price on the prior quarter and a 13% increase in direct cash costs to US$1.03/lb due to general cost pressures. Unit costs are expected to improve as production levels increase over the remainder of the year."

PEM's margins seem to be getting squeezed, with Zinc (especially in AUD) trending lower and lower and costs rising.

steve fleming
02-11-2007, 09:41 AM
"The lower cash operating margin of US$0.44/lb zinc resulted from the 12% decrease in average zinc price on the prior quarter and a 13% increase in direct cash costs to US$1.03/lb due to general cost pressures. Unit costs are expected to improve as production levels increase over the remainder of the year."

PEM's margins seem to be getting squeezed, with Zinc (especially in AUD) trending lower and lower and costs rising.

Part of the problem is PEM's BH concentrator operating at excess capacity. Potosi and NorthMine Deeps will be online shortly to reduce direct costs, but this highlights another reason for a takeover - to source ore externally.

Also remember that they are incurring costs to mine Flinders, yet have not sold this ore, and thus have not booked the sale, let alone recieved the cash.

The major issue for me with PEM is the massive decrease in cash over the last quarter - ie from $173m to $113m.

PEM have not given a reason for this. To me, a possible explanation is that they have used the funds to make an equity investment in some company, prior to a takeover.

qinshu
02-11-2007, 09:48 AM
Financially, looking at cash flows and cash reserves and also management wise with regard to having hedged lead prices and dollar PEM would I should think have to be seen as a safer share to invest in than TZN. It is also a fully operational mining company with producing mines and the capacity to expand and good expansion sites.


Revenue Protection
Currency Protection
Revenues in the September quarter were protected through call options that were exercised at US$0.8325 compared to
the average spot rate of US$0.8474.
As at 30 September 2007, the company had further call options over A$371 million of projected receipts for the 2008 to
2010 financial year at a strike price of US$0.8263 (refer Table 4 on page 10). It is important to note that whilst the use of
options protects the company against an increase in the AUD relative to the USD, it still maintains exposure to the
benefits of a decrease in the AUD/USD exchange rate.
At the current spot exchange rate of US$0.90 this equates to an unrealised gain of A$25.8 million in pre tax earnings and
cash flow. Importantly, A$17.5 million of this benefit relates to the balance of the 2008 financial year.



Metal Put Options
The company has acquired put options over approximately 50% of forecast lead sales to June 2009. These put options
provide the right, but not the obligation, to sell lead at an agreed strike price at a future date (refer to Table 4 on page 10).
The overall effect of these USD lead put options and the AUD call options is a minimum gross achievable price of A$3,316 per tonne on the 30,221 tonnes hedged for the balance of FY08


Flinders Zinc Project
Beltana Mine
The mining operations at the Beltana open pit continued ahead of schedule and under budget. A total of 32,700 tonnes of
high grade DSO was mined during the quarter at an average grade of 38.9% zinc. The project has to date produced
43,200 tonnes of high grade DSO at 37.7% zinc (16,300 tonnes of contained zinc)….
The first shipment is
expected during the December quarter with sales continuing over a two to three year period. Contained zinc sales for the
2008 financial year are forecast at 15,000 tonnes increasing to 20,000 – 25,000 tonnes in the subsequent two to three
years.


On 28 September 2007, the company paid a final dividend of 1 cent, bringing the full year’s dividend to 11 cents per share
or 25% of earnings. The total dividend for FY07 was up 120% on the maiden dividend paid in the previous financial year.


At 30 September 2007, cash and deposits totalled $111.7 million


From the quarterly activities report released 24/10.07.

qinshu
02-11-2007, 10:13 AM
PEM have not given a reason for this. To me, a possible explanation is that they have used the funds to make an equity investment in some company, prior to a takeover.


The article I opened the thread with says:
The company is in discussions with unnamed parties regarding a joint venture in the Broken Hill district, Mr Jubber said.

Not quite the same, but ...

whiteheron
02-11-2007, 04:47 PM
I have tried to find a Cash Flow Statement for PEM for the Sept 07 Quarter but without success
This would have disclosed the reasons for the cash movement

I have noticed that some companies include a Cash Flow Statement in their Quarterly Reports whereas others dont, I am not sure what the reporting rules say about this
Is anybody able to elaborate ???

The share price was savaged earlier today but has made a recovery --- it is still pretty low though (my opinion)

qinshu
02-11-2007, 06:01 PM
Cash Flows
At 30 September 2007, cash and deposits totalled $111.7 million, which was in line with the company’s operating plan
(June quarter $173.0 million).
Significant cash flow items include:
· Broken Hill inventory of 24,400 tonnes of zinc and lead concentrate, which will be drawn down in the December
quarter.
· Tax payment of $8.0 million.
· Purchase of lead options for $12.0 million.
· Development expenditure at Potosi and Beltana of $14.0 million.
· Exploration expenditure of $7.8 million.

from the quarterly report

qinshu
07-11-2007, 04:10 PM
Up 4 and a half percent at this stage today.

qinshu
12-11-2007, 03:30 PM
Part of the problem is PEM's BH concentrator operating at excess capacity. Potosi and NorthMine Deeps will be online shortly to reduce direct costs, but this highlights another reason for a takeover - to source ore externally.

Also remember that they are incurring costs to mine Flinders, yet have not sold this ore, and thus have not booked the sale, let alone recieved the cash.

The major issue for me with PEM is the massive decrease in cash over the last quarter - ie from $173m to $113m.

PEM have not given a reason for this. To me, a possible explanation is that they have used the funds to make an equity investment in some company, prior to a takeover.




PEM has taken a significant 8 percent holding in HERALD, an Australian company intending to develop high quality zinc/lead/silver mines in Indonesia which has some minor gold exploration exposure too. Evidently some basic infrastructure etc is being built while awaiting final approval.

qinshu
12-11-2007, 03:33 PM
Occurs to me that production costs and labour costs will likely be lower in Indonesia.

steve fleming
12-11-2007, 03:57 PM
The major issue for me with PEM is the massive decrease in cash over the last quarter - ie from $173m to $113m.

PEM have not given a reason for this. To me, a possible explanation is that they have used the funds to make an equity investment in some company, prior to a takeover.

Yep....PEM have being buying up large since mid July....that explains where the cash has gone....just as i thought.

Anyway, the adddition of the Dair project will double PEM's annual lead and zinc output...catapulting PEM even further into the big league.

PEM is likely to make a takeover, once the Indonesians have given development approval.

Good news indeed.

soulman
12-11-2007, 08:34 PM
Again, this is the low PEM got to last time in Sept 18th. 2 months later, it's there again. Tempted, but out of cash. For those who sold at $4.30 a month ago, it was a perfect get out of jail exit. Interesting time for all concerned.

Interesting, PEM and HER has almost the same shares on issue (196 mil).

qinshu
13-11-2007, 12:34 PM
Even better buying today in my opinion. Its taken a hammering because of the zfx announcement.

Heavy Metal
14-11-2007, 12:52 AM
Even better buying today in my opinion. Its taken a hammering because of the zfx announcement.

What zfx announcement?

qinshu
14-11-2007, 08:48 AM
Zinifex announced a profit downgrade yesterday. (As I heard it on TV.) These articles are relevant:


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&refer=&sid=acjA126i0qRI
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aLmmqc4bcYlo&refer=australia
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22754583-5005200,00.html
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22754890-664,00.html

qinshu
14-11-2007, 12:28 PM
Someone has lowered their forecast for zinc in the future from 1.75 to 1.25 a pound.
“Analyst Craig Sainsbury said he was overwhelmed by the rising tide of bearish sentiment in the zinc market and had lowered his 2008 zinc price forecast by 30 per cent to $1.25 a pound.”

http://au.us.biz.yahoo.com/ft/071112/fto111220071530383103.html?.v=1

Zinifex seems to think the falling price of zinc and rising price of the dollar will combine to lower its revenue.

However, why Perilya remains a good buy despite being exposed to the same market is it has hedged against the higher dollar (over 83 cents) (last quarter report) and has considered lower zinc prices in its operational planning:
(http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache:VtbA1GvOrSoJ:www.perilya.com.au/articles/board-approval-for-flinders-high-grade-zinc-oxide-project-in-south-australia/061219_Flinders_Board_Approval.pdf+forecast+Perily a+%22price+of+zinc+%22&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=au&ie=UTF-8)
It has also put prices for lead to protect its lead prices.

Also, Patersons have based their future profit forecasts for PEM on a zinc price of 1.14 per pound and recommend it strongly.

“Perilya forecasts current-year output of 120,000-140,000 tonnes of zinc and 70,000-80,000 tonnes of lead. There's also 28,000 tonnes of 35 per cent grade ore stockpiled at the Flinders Zinc (Beltana) project in South Australia, expected to be sold in the December quarter.
Broker Patersons notes that Broken Hill grades should improve as Perilya moves to higher-grade stopes.
An unabashed fan of the stock, Patersons forecasts a current-year net result of $119 million and earnings per share of 67.1c, which puts the stock on a miserly PE ratio of 5.6 times. This assumes an average zinc price of $US1.14 a pound, compared with the current $US1.28/lb.”

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22396337-23634,00.html
Tim Boreham | September 11, 2007

Also, the zinc price is already at $1.20 per pound anyway and PEM’s recent report said profits were on track.

Heavy Metal
14-11-2007, 09:44 PM
Zinifex announced a profit downgrade yesterday. (As I heard it on TV.)

It was not a profit downgrade. For there to be a profit downgrade there has to be an initial guidance. As is standard practice for miners, Zinifex does not give profit guidance.

Analysts have forecasted FY08 Zinifex profits to be lower than FY07 for months so yesterday's news is no surprise.

The reason for yesterday's fall in zinc miners was due to the 3% fall in the LME zinc price.

steve fleming
14-11-2007, 09:59 PM
UBS downgraded PEM earlier this week, from strong buy to neutral.

Price target of $4.25.

qinshu
15-11-2007, 10:11 AM
Yeah, saw that Steve. Thought it was one or two weeks ago actually. The vast majority of the advisers I see have PEM as a buy. The one who is predicting the 4.25 has it as a hold. The highest price forecast is 5.10 and the average is 4.75.

Heavy Metal, I apologise. As you probably saw when you quoted me, I used the terminology I heard on TV. (CNBC probably). The drop may have been caused by the lower zince prices. They certainly would have contributed. Did you see this Bloomberg article? This maybe what the TV was talking about.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aLmmqc4bcYlo&refer=australia

Nice that zinc went up what 2.6 % overnight hey? Should be good for both PEM and ZFX.

whiteheron
15-11-2007, 10:33 AM
I am convinced that PEM is a very good stock, but a little patience will be required to reap its full potential

The market is unlikely to accord this stock its full value until it puts in one or two top quarters (which I have no doubt it will in the near future)

I hold several parcels of PEM and have no intention of selling at anything like its present share price

A top class medium term stock

qinshu
15-11-2007, 01:49 PM
Nice announcement today of drilling results that looks like it more than doubles the copper resource held by PEM. And the indication that this is suitable for initial development as an open cut mine is also of interest.

whiteheron
15-11-2007, 02:04 PM
Maybe I spoke a little too early

A great announcement today and PEM up by over 20c
Good stuff

steve fleming
15-11-2007, 11:56 PM
Maybe I spoke a little too early

A great announcement today and PEM up by over 20c
Good stuff

"Len Jubber, chief executive officer, said that this was an
exciting result that has highlighted the potential of the current
drilling program to increase the inferred resource to 250,000 -
300,000 tonnes of copper."

We are talking a very very sizeable potential resource here....if you look at Australia's most recent large copper producer - CopperCo Ltd ("Cuo") - they developed their Lady Annie open cut mine based on a resource of 200,000 Cu....so PEM's project will potentially be 50% greater than Lady Annie.

Cuo is now valued at $425m....which gives some indication of the value add to PEM.

I can't agree more with WH - PEM is such a top class stock.

steve fleming
16-11-2007, 05:35 PM
Rumour in the AFR today that PEM may make a bid for in-play CBH.

qinshu
19-11-2007, 02:15 PM
Interesting Steve. I wonder how they get hold of rumours like this one? I wonder if there is any substance to the rumour.

Tye
19-11-2007, 09:21 PM
hi guys. has anyone got any ideas on how perilya may go in 09. I purchased the share at $5.40 and the share has done nothing but fall in a strong market. Just concerned as almost 50% of my initially capital is gone and all i hear is that "perilya is a strong share with great potential" But it obviously has very little potential as no one is buying it. I bought it for the long term but any more falling will wipe me out.

soulman
20-11-2007, 02:10 AM
Sad to hear Tye. PEM hopes back to the $5 mark all rely on T/O activity now. But with dwindling share price and cash holdings, low mine life, it's hard to see anyone acquiring PEM. Any T/O for CBH or any other coy won't be that positive for PEM as the acquirer always falls (in share price) to the target. Just like what happen to BHP recently.

Although PEM is currently at it's support price right now, I am not sure if I will enter PEM, just due to the uncertainty of the zinc and lead prices. I am sure PEM management are under pressure to see their peers growing in market value while they are going nowhere in the last 6 months. I see CBA has been buyin lately so that's a positive.

qinshu
20-11-2007, 08:12 AM
Hi Tye.

I think it looks pretty good for getting back more than what the share is at now but probably not to the level you bought it at. I think the broker average expectation for the share over twelve months is $4.75 and it is rated buy by 80% and hold the other 20% on the site my partner uses to help evaluate shares. (Although this does not factor in the most recent panic sell off in base metals - we are yet to see how that plays out. ) PEM is somewhat protected by its hedged lead price and hedged dollar compared to other miners.

Good luck. We're on the ride with you, but bought at lower prices.

Soulman where did you see CBA are buying in? We noticed AMP was a little while back.

whiteheron
20-11-2007, 11:02 AM
Hi folks

With the price of zinc and lead down overnight I strongly suspect that PEM will take something of a hammering today

How low will it go ? Well frankly I dont know but I do not propose selling as I still believe that within the next twelve months or so it is likely to recover to around $4 to $4.50
(but I am no expert so make your own assessment on that)

My average cost for PEM is just over $3.60 so I am not in such a difficult position as some others

Heres hoping all will pan out for the better

qinshu
20-11-2007, 11:33 AM
My partner found an article attributing the zinc drop off to Chinese zinc flooding the market because of a rumour of the Chinese government cutting a rebate to their zinc exporters. If so I guess it means prices will go up again or at least stabilise once the market stops being flooded.

steve fleming
20-11-2007, 10:25 PM
I bought it for the long term but any more falling will wipe me out.

Hi Tye, how does the PEM today compare to the PEM which you decided to buy as a long term hold?

What are your thoughts on Mount Oxide?

Tye
21-11-2007, 09:14 PM
I purchased perilya due to my stockroker talking it up so much. Fom what i gather perilya has grown since i purchased it in Jan, but the share price has done the exact opposite. I've come to relize that stockbrokers only want your money, because i really dont think they know anymore than you and I.
The funny thing is that every stockbroker recomendation i have purchased have gone the other direction and every share i have purchased my self has gone up. "never trust i guy with a business degree!"

steve fleming
21-11-2007, 09:17 PM
The selling in PEM over the last couple of months has been absolutely relentless.

It reminds me of an almost identical situation last year with a similar midcap miner - CSM, which got punished by the market on the back of a falling Mn price.

Day after day after day, CSM got hammered until its shareprice reached levels that defied any rational valuation measures.

Eventually sanity prevailed, and on the back of some takeover activity CSM rose by almost 200% pretty quickly.

Quality comes through in the end.

shasta
21-11-2007, 09:33 PM
The selling in PEM over the last couple of months has been absolutely relentless.

It reminds me of an almost identical situation last year with a similar midcap miner - CSM, which got punished by the market on the back of a falling Mn price.

Day after day after day, CSM got hammered until its shareprice reached levels that defied any rational valuation measures.

Eventually sanity prevailed, and on the back of some takeover activity CSM rose by almost 200% pretty quickly.

Quality comes through in the end.

You can pretty much add CMR to what happened to CSM & PEM.

Watching CMR & PEM (though glad im out of PEM at present)

scorp57
21-11-2007, 10:56 PM
haha shasta was a good call jumpin out of pem. like i said, i was bearish on zinc and had watched this stock for close to 2 years, and bought in at $2.70 so selling at $4.30 wasn't terrible. just annoying coz i watched the day the hit $5.80.

takeover spec is the only thing that will drive companies like pem and zfx back up to record highs, as the zinc price will almost never get back to where it was...

qinshu
22-11-2007, 09:09 AM
PEM has some forward contracts for zinc and lead and some hedged lead and the hedged dollar. The hedge prices are out to 2010. PEM has a quarterly report due in January and dividend due February. It has diverse interests and strong management.

I agree with Steve that the current sell off is illogical.

I also agree with you that zinc prices going down have pushed PEM and ZFX down. I have read that over the last ten months chinese zinc exporters have put an extra 20 percent of zinc on world markets and that has helped push zinc prices down so far. If the rebate to Chinese zinc exporters is cut we should see abruptly less Chinese zinc on the world market, and the rebate to Chinese exporters is due to be cut in January.

Over the last few days zinc stockpiles have lessened slightly. That tends to be a sign that these lower prices are now starting to advance zinc sales. I think that with the Chinese move to allow zinc to fall further before cutting out market activity more buyers should move into the market for zinc again and the price start to come up.

I personally think zinc will find a bottom in the next couple of weeks - month, if not sooner.

And i also think PEM remains a good investment. Why take losses you don't have to if a little patience will see you rewarded?

whiteheron
22-11-2007, 10:50 AM
ginshu

I pretty much agree with all of your comments

PEM seems so much out of favour at present that it may even settle a little further yet
What a bargain

I am seriously considering selling some other not so good performers to pick up a few more PEM
Maybe 6 months or so will be required but I am sure that the patient will be handsomely rewarded with PEM as it is a very robust company that is well managed

Time will tell

soulman
22-11-2007, 06:36 PM
Tough call. The support price for PEM was about $3.50 and it has fallen way below. Watch it settle into the $2.75's. I am glad I stayed out of PEM. Good luck to all you PEM holder but it's hard to be positive when Zinc and Lead prices have fallen day after day as well as the stock market itself.

Tye
22-11-2007, 06:56 PM
yep perilya is a piece of @#$%. It will probably be one of those shares that just keep falling into the 1cent area. Im in for the long trip now anyway considering i bought in the mid $5

steve fleming
22-11-2007, 07:11 PM
Well my 15-bagger today on FDLOA helps ease the PEM pain somewhat, I think it is pretty obvious now that overseas institutions are behind the massive PEM sell off, disregarding all fundamentals.

Meanwhile, in Australia, brokers continue to come out in support of PEM:

21/11/07 ABN AMRO -BUY - Target Px $4.64
19/11/07 Macquarie - OUTPERFORM - Target Px $4.90
12/11/07 UBS - NEUTRAL - Target Px $4.25
26/10/07 Creidt Suisse - OUTPERFORM - Target Px $5.00

qinshu
23-11-2007, 11:27 AM
Zinc stockpile down a little, zinc price up.

qinshu
23-11-2007, 04:22 PM
Zinc spot prices up .9 at the moment.

newbe
25-11-2009, 06:19 PM
Received my letter for the SPP yesturday. Offer price is 42cents which is currently 10c below current price. Anyone else considering this offer?

macduffy
25-11-2009, 06:33 PM
I don't hold PEM but if I did I'd be taking up the offer - and selling an equivalent number of shares for 10c more!

;)

corporateraider
25-11-2009, 09:15 PM
I am holding what I have and taking up the offer. As distinct from past years mgt has done everything right this year. They have taken considerable costs out of the business and the selling of the silver hedge has returned a book profit of 50 odd million so far.

They have increased the Broken Hill resource and the mine life to 10 years,

Now there is the potential that they can use the cash issue to increase production further.
And they have 200 thousand tonnes of copper in the ground.

Just a rough synopsis but I think a 6 month price target of 70c is likely. Apparently there is a broker report that supports that view. (see Hot Copper)

newbe
02-12-2009, 04:24 PM
Any one know what may have caused this surge? Stong support and 60c looking probable.

shasta
02-12-2009, 04:26 PM
Any one know what may have caused this surge? Stong support and 60c looking probable.

OZL are reportedly looking around for a copper project.

PEM may entertain a JV with them, just speculation at this stage :rolleyes:

shasta
05-07-2010, 04:07 PM
OZL are reportedly looking around for a copper project.

PEM may entertain a JV with them, just speculation at this stage :rolleyes:

PEM - Additional Silver Hedging

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PEM&E=ASX&N=496424

1.17m/oz @ $US18.33/oz (for 50 - 70% of production July 2010 to Dec 2011)

Also have some Lead hedged as well

macduffy
05-07-2010, 05:35 PM
PEM did a canny deal a few months ago in buying back their hedged silver position from Coeur. Latest deal seems to have replaced that at a much more favourable price.

If I was happier about the current market I'd be tempted to buy a few. As it is, PEM remains on my watchlist.

newbe
11-10-2010, 07:48 PM
Plenty of action here of late. The market has reacted positively to the anouncment of the pending agreement with Globestar.

chad321
17-05-2013, 03:11 PM
Hey guys, what are your thoughts on PEM at the moment? Very low price. Where to from here?

macduffy
17-05-2013, 05:22 PM
Hey guys, what are your thoughts on PEM at the moment? Very low price. Where to from here?

If you take the view that metals prices will improve in a "reasonable" time frame then PEM would be an interesting punt. They are cashed up - moderately so - and the Broken Hill deposits were recently assessed to have a 10 year life. The Americas projects add a bit of further potential upside.
Personally, I'd wait to see some movement in those prices, if only because every time I've considered buying, the SP has gone down!

soulman
18-05-2013, 11:12 PM
If you take the view that metals prices will improve in a "reasonable" time frame then PEM would be an interesting punt. They are cashed up - moderately so - and the Broken Hill deposits were recently assessed to have a 10 year life. The Americas projects add a bit of further potential upside.
Personally, I'd wait to see some movement in those prices, if only because every time I've considered buying, the SP has gone down!

'Cashed up' is not the 2 word I would use to described PEM. Debt of $140 odd million could sinked any coy.

macduffy
22-05-2013, 07:34 PM
Agreed, soulman. My choice of words was rather "loose". Perhaps "have cash in the bank" would be more accurate. Around $40m at 31 March, from memory.

Meanwhile, an interesting snippet this week from FN Arena:

- the impact of a weaker AUDUSD on profits of certain smaller mining companies can be nothing short of spectacular, in particular smaller miners that are only marginally profitable in the present context. UBS last week calculated it only takes US5c to boost profits for Western Areas ((WSA)) by 159%, for Alumina Ltd ((AWC)) by 138% and for Perilya ((PEM)) by 125% - all else being equal. Other mining companies that should see a spectacular boost to their earnings per share include Grange Resources ((GRR)) at 76% impact, Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) at 64%, Ivanhoe ((IVA)) at 44%, Mincor Resources ((MCR)) at 43%, Atlas Iron ((AGO)) and Mount Gibson ((MGX)) at 42% and PanAust ((PNA)) at 41%. Imagine what a further US5c fall could mean for those companies in the year ahead!

The AFR carried a similar story - including the 125% number for PEM. Made the point though that with marginal profitability, 100% increases may still not amount to many $$$$'s!

macduffy
18-06-2013, 01:46 PM
With base metals prices depressed and markets nervous, what chance, I wonder, of the majority Chinese shareholder mounting a takeover for the other 43% of the company? At a current SP of 13c, a 30% premium would cost a fraction over a modest $55m for full ownership of a company mining zinc, lead, silver, copper and gold in Australia and America. The biggest hurdle might be political - I seem to remember that the earlier deal was fraught with "problems". But times have changed.......

Any thoughts?