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View Full Version : NZD v Aussie over next 3-9 months



David Hardman
09-11-2007, 11:14 PM
I've got to move a reasonable sum of NZD to AUD within the next 3-9 months.

What's peoples view on the rate over this period?

Cross currently at .84

Is NZ at the top of their interest rate cycle?

Aussie may have a couple of .25 hikes within the next 6 months.. Should see AUD strengthen..

???

the machine
09-11-2007, 11:36 PM
I've got to move a reasonable sum of NZD to AUD within the next 3-9 months.

What's peoples view on the rate over this period?

Cross currently at .84

Is NZ at the top of their interest rate cycle?

Aussie may have a couple of .25 hikes within the next 6 months.. Should see AUD strengthen..

???

buy euro instead

M

peat
10-11-2007, 01:57 AM
i believe that the AUD should stay relatively more strong than the Kiwi.
Esp as and when the aversion to risk rises in the general climate, and its pretty obvious there is a bit of a flight to safety happening currently.

This cross has already moved a chunk tho. eg AUD/NZD gone from low of 1.10 to 1.20 and so there remains a chance it could correct back to 1.14 or 1.12 even. IF and its a big if that happens it may well be your best opportunity in this 9mth timeframe. If however 1.21 gets taken out convincingly then we're going higher.
The best approach with these situations is to move it in a few bites. bit by bit - you have time so you can show some patience and if there are any favourable movements you can take advantage of those in the next tranche.

arco
10-11-2007, 09:18 AM
David

There are potential signs of a developing top in AUD/NZD IMO,
therefore scaling in could be the way to go.

Potential targets once we see the confirmed turnaround could be
1.1690/1740, then 1450/1500, and possibly even 1260.

If for some reason the action heads higher in the short term these
targets are subjest to change.

rgds -arco

dumbass
10-11-2007, 11:59 AM
have studied chart and came up with the following any comments on top would be appreciated arco

alternate bat with reversal in prz

top printed a dark cloud cover

bearish divergence on q stick with zero line repelling retracement

todays print would loosely be a beaish engulfing if you viewed prior candle as doji .
(normally a white candle and then an engulfing black but two black are ok if its a doji)

targets as you mentioned

dumbass
06-12-2007, 07:09 PM
David

There are potential signs of a developing top in AUD/NZD IMO,
therefore scaling in could be the way to go.

Potential targets once we see the confirmed turnaround could be
1.1690/1740, then 1450/1500, and possibly even 1260.

If for some reason the action heads higher in the short term these
targets are subjest to change.

rgds -arco

800pips

come on 26 pips shy of low , defintley the crown is slipping

hail to the king

arco
06-12-2007, 08:46 PM
.......actually it went down as low as 1245 at 11am today (15 pips out..........thats inflation for you).


...............occasionally the crystal ball actually works :)

dumbass
08-12-2007, 06:50 AM
possible c wave completion

bit of fib action around these levels

looking like hammer on dailys after spinning top

if this abc correction is over should get up to test b wave high at 121

Bilo
08-12-2007, 11:51 AM
Why wouldn't you expect it to continue down to 1.09 - sometime in January?

Bilo
08-12-2007, 11:58 AM
Arco your call above was impressive. You are deserving of your LEGEND title! Fantastic! Congratulations!
Just sorry I don't understand this stuff well enough/follow it closely enough/to modify my behaviour on your call.
I didn't act on it. I hope David Hardman did...

dumbass
08-12-2007, 01:01 PM
Why wouldn't you expect it to continue down to 1.09 - sometime in January?

well you could be right all i really do is try and identify is high probability turning points and trade them , some you win on some you dont

this is a correction on the main 12345 wave up

the correction is an expanded flat

wave c is normally 1.61 wave a and will finish roughly around wave 4

some of the candle stick patterns (spinning top and hammer) are suggesting down move slowing and a few other things

but not a certainty at all , which means you must trade with a stop which i would say would be the bottom of the hammer 112 40

hope this answers your question

dumbass
15-12-2007, 02:25 PM
still reckon this one worth a look

hammer and doji , divergence on q stick 78.6 fib levels

gentle long , easy does it tiger

anyway new passport issued , so we are having another go at leaving

David Hardman
17-12-2007, 12:56 PM
Arco your call above was impressive. You are deserving of your LEGEND title! Fantastic! Congratulations!
Just sorry I don't understand this stuff well enough/follow it closely enough/to modify my behaviour on your call.
I didn't act on it. I hope David Hardman did...

Nope.. not yet. My NZD's will become available in March/April 08. I'll need to move the money soon after. Hopefully the kiwi will stay strong till then.

dumbass
28-01-2008, 03:32 PM
slightly surprised to see this one moving slowly up

from an elliot wave perspective in a three of a larger three in even a larger three
this should mean some speed in up move

solid support 11330 and 61.8 level of 116 move just below

rising trendline may provide an entry if tested around 113 70

stop loss 113

dumbass
01-02-2008, 11:08 AM
taken in on this one as previous post

moving very lethargically but support looking solid around 113 40

dumbass
21-04-2008, 09:34 PM
i hope mr hardman has moved his kiwi dollars over to aus

chart entering an accelerated phase of kiwi weakness against aussie

minimum target 121 but most likely going higher and probably quite quickly

750 pips if anybody had the patience

had a few nibbles on the way up

David Hardman
21-04-2008, 09:37 PM
i hope mr hardman has moved his kiwi dollars over to aus

chart entering an accelerated phase of kiwi weakness against aussie

minimum target 121 but most likely going higher and probably quite quickly

750 pips if anybody had the patience

had a few nibbles on the way up

Nope.. Still trying to offload my Auckland based rental.. Very few buyers out there it would seem!

FX downside just makes the pain worse

peat
22-04-2008, 11:05 AM
i tried DA but I had stops set at 1380 and need less to say it went that far (and not much more)

dumbass
22-04-2008, 12:31 PM
hi peat

still reckon there should be more opportunities to jump on

watching for another entry

i left a message for you on general chit chat

peat
22-04-2008, 01:31 PM
i have sent you a PM DA.

dumbass
13-05-2008, 05:38 PM
i hope mr hardman has moved his kiwi dollars over to aus

chart entering an accelerated phase of kiwi weakness against aussie

minimum target 121 but most likely going higher and probably quite quickly

750 pips if anybody had the patience

had a few nibbles on the way up


one of the best trending crosses

seems by the nature of the carry trades when one of these currencies is in vogue the other ones heading for the dog box

1200 pips in a couple of months with no sign of abating

dumbass
13-08-2008, 07:41 PM
maybe top in on aussie against kiwi , text book butterfly

5 waves down on shorter time frame

looking for a correction to enter short

dumbass
20-08-2008, 05:28 PM
looking like retracement may be close to starting

if this count is correct 5 th wave has extended which is often fully retraced

might have a nibble on way up

dumbass
26-08-2008, 06:41 PM
a chart for the good Dr

entered on trend line break at 12260 sl 12140 +80 pips

5 waves down is an indication trend for aud nzd is down but have taken opportunity

to trade retracement ,target set at 4th wave area and 61.8 retracement.

you have missed entry to go long now, however price may return and test upper channel

boundary which may provide good entry.

Dr_Who
02-09-2008, 02:41 PM
I am thinking of shorting NZD against the AUD at around 81.5. Whats your view DA?

dumbass
02-09-2008, 06:47 PM
its been in a consolidation phase for a couple of weeks now between 81 and 82

why not wait for a breakout , my feeling is it will break to downside.

or if you are sure you want to enter short, try to position a short at top of channel eg 82

and stop loss just above channel


good luck

Dr_Who
03-09-2008, 06:37 AM
NZD have recently rallied against the AUD. I am thinking that NZD may weaken coming towards and into the sept 11 rates cut announcement.

Footsie
03-09-2008, 08:41 AM
logically one would expect a pull back. after such a sharp move up to 82c

AUD/USD fall has been too hard...

I'd expect the RBNZ to be pretty bearish on the NZ economy and signal more rate cuts on the way.

RBA GDP data today will be key for setting the move in the next week , follow that up with another rate cut on the kiwi and we may be heading back to retest 77.50

break above 82.40 would veto all of the above.

dumbass
03-09-2008, 08:43 AM
My feeling is a few more storm clouds on the nzd outlook than aud,

both economies weakening but nz probably a little softer which should mean aus will

strengthen.

if you time it well should be a profitable trade.

Dr_Who
03-09-2008, 08:54 AM
Thanks for the advice guys.

This is my first venture into FX. :)

Dr_Who
05-09-2008, 12:17 PM
The graph is looking good in a short position for NZD AUD. :)

arco
05-09-2008, 12:49 PM
Dr Who

You are in a unique position. You can teleport ahead and check where the price will be in the future.

We, on the other hand can only look where the price has been in the past.

http://i15.photobucket.com/albums/a373/benweldon/tardisavatar1.gif

Dr_Who
05-09-2008, 01:23 PM
Dr Who

You are in a unique position. You can teleport ahead and check where the price will be in the future.

We, on the other hand can only look where the price has been in the past.

http://i15.photobucket.com/albums/a373/benweldon/tardisavatar1.gif


I WISH!

I just have a wave of good luck follow by extreme bad luck. So, I make use of the good before it runs out... :D

The NZD seems to be sliding fast against the Aussie. There is a RBNZ next week tues. Prediction is for 25/50 point cut. NZ economy is in a very bad shape. This is confirmed by BGR latest profit announcement.

Dr_Who
16-09-2008, 07:21 PM
Why is the NZD so strong against the AUD? A sudden movement upwards against the AUD.

arco
16-09-2008, 07:50 PM
Why is the NZD so strong against the AUD? A sudden movement upwards against the AUD.

Weakness in Aussie due to commodities woes probably.....

Aussie tumbles to 1-yr lows on commodities sell-off

* Aussie falls as commodities slide on global growth outlook
* Aussie also at 5-month lows vs yen on risk aversion
* Second-quarter GDP adds to Aussie's woes

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=625167

Dr_Who
16-09-2008, 07:56 PM
Weak commodities should also affect the NZ economy. Also we have the RB with a possible 50 point cut in Oct.

arco
16-09-2008, 08:17 PM
Dr Who

Ask me a charty question, I can probably help......other than that I'm

probably guessing :)

Gold?

Dr_Who
18-09-2008, 01:45 PM
Why is the NZD so strong against the AUD?

AMR
18-09-2008, 01:55 PM
Darnn....it seems my decision to short the aussie was a correct direction play, just horribly wrong on the timeframe.

maknz
18-09-2008, 02:07 PM
Why is the NZD so strong against the AUD?

I think it was heading that way already and got slightly blown off course after our rate cut last week, now it's just getting back the business it was already upto before the RBNZ rate decision.

Dr_Who
18-09-2008, 02:23 PM
I think it was heading that way already and got slightly blown off course after our rate cut last week, now it's just getting back the business it was already upto before the RBNZ rate decision.

That doesnt answer the question, why is the NZD so strong against the AUD. One would thought that with the NZ RB cutting rates in Oct and NZ economy weaker than the Aussie, that our dollar would also be weaker.

arco
18-09-2008, 02:27 PM
.
Interesting if you look over the last 20 yrs the average (red line) has been falling, and swings have been getting smaller.

.

Dr_Who
18-09-2008, 02:52 PM
Arco, where did you get the graph from?

maknz
18-09-2008, 02:56 PM
That doesnt answer the question, why is the NZD so strong against the AUD..

I don't think it is that strong, it's just strengthening.

Why? I think it's because the Aussie is probably sicker than the NZD at the moment due to the recent economic indicators coming out & AUD/USD has fallen sharper in the last two months than NZD/USD.

And as we can see from arco's graph, NZD gaining on AUD has been the long term trend.

arco
18-09-2008, 02:58 PM
Dr Who

Its the charting package I use for my trading.

(The lines are drawn by me, and red mid line calc using Fibo).

rgds - arco

Joshuatree
16-05-2011, 08:51 PM
Hi folks . The chart im looking at (National Bank) goes back to 93.The NZ dollar is re at its lowest since then. Ive been taking profits in Aus stocks and a few losses and bringing back $A to $Nz re @ $A 74c, i think this correction has a way to go..Hoping to buy back in to aus stocks cheaper post June QE2 and clean up on a rising kiwi against the $Aus. Is anyone else is doing this too and what your thoughts are and if not be int to read your views too,cheers.

Pumice
17-05-2011, 05:17 PM
RBA is a lot more hawkish than RBNZ.
NZ interest rates are effectively negative. I think we have a while to go before we are fundamentally in a strong position for there to be any currency and interest rate gains.

Joshuatree
17-05-2011, 07:45 PM
Hi Pumice great to get some sharing,thanks.One of the reasons in doing this is im thinking as QE2 ends there may be mayhem in the markets and in 2008 when the last crises hit there was a massive spike in the $A/$NZ ,i hope to take advantage of this. Meanwhile im protecting all those gains ive made up since the last crises. cheers

Zorrro
18-05-2011, 05:57 AM
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Joshuatree
26-05-2011, 05:42 PM
Acting like a masked man Zorro trying to steal away posters from sharetrader practically none here to poach:). There has been a strong trend reversal in the $a -$nz . Im making good gains after bringing my $a back recently. Was hoping to share these and discuss this but its pretty dead here.Sitting on cash and Aus gold shares mainly. Adios

Zorrro
27-05-2011, 12:30 AM
Joshu sorry you feel bitter - but I doint need poach anyone or anything - free country and I though I was doingh asamaritan thing that is all - but still do respect your view

rgds
zarif

Pumice
27-05-2011, 10:43 AM
NZD has been particularly strong of late. Seems well overdone to me though,
Must be the high Fonterra payouts (Can’t imagine they will get any higher) and solid Chinese interest in NZ (I think I read they were looking at a $6bil investment?)

Anyone out there doing much trading?

ynot
28-05-2011, 06:58 AM
what about incoming eartquake insurance, what effect will that have on the $NZ?

RRR
28-05-2011, 08:23 PM
NZD spike over the last few days was quite unusual. Is Fonterra payout the only reason? Telecom share price has appreciated 20% and the majority of the investors are from overseas - does it influence the exchange rates?

peat
03-06-2011, 08:33 PM
if the bullish gartley I see fires it could go to AUD/NZD 1.41
so thats bearish NZD vs Aussie

Pumice
09-06-2011, 09:28 PM
Go kiwi go!!! massive gains, even against the Aus.
I'm definately moving a chunk of my cash out of NZ.

Joshuatree
13-06-2011, 06:40 PM
Whoops Black swan ,Ch Ch Earth Quake(not again,terrible).has dropped a cent off. My plan was/ still is wait til re 80c before taking funds back to Aus

Joshuatree
25-07-2011, 02:58 PM
Close to breaking through A80c ,its been a great ride .Anyone else on board?

Joshuatree
03-08-2011, 12:51 PM
Yeehaa cracked A80c easily says he tohimself without a chart. Now if id enetered the exchange rate as one of pics in the share comp id be past seagull Im not lonely here but alone and richer:)

Toulouse - Luzern
30-09-2011, 01:06 PM
One positive outcome of today's news and the Kiwi down against the Aussie etc is that your mutual funds, ASX shares, AUD accounts etc get a boost ...

Pumice
30-09-2011, 04:08 PM
Also helps with the SL payments. would be handy if the NZD really colapsed.