Dow Jones Ind Av

[dumbass]

just doing a bit of work on dow

the preferred count is bearish with a c wave possibly completing around 12900

the dow should then take a serious beating as its a third of a third wave

which is the start of a large abc correction running multi year

usual implications for carry trades

sorry about line chart for some reason i only get eod closing for dow , which does have impact on fib lines
are you the same arco?

[arco]

DB

I get them OK

Right click on the line plot, select 'price style' and change
to candlesticks.

arco

[dumbass]

what i meant was that the data file from infoscan open high low close all come through as closing prices , so it isnt much of a candlestick chart
i probably have a problem with that particular file

[arco]

DB

Sounds like a file problem.

I've e-mailed the DJI file to you

arco

[dumbass]

thanks arco i will give it a go

[Steve]

thanks arco i will give it a go

Looking forward to seeing what you post from it...

[dumbass]

still very much in the bear camp when it comes to the US markets

still counting a wave II in a 3

this wave II appears corrective with many overlaps rather than the clean 5 wave impulses

down , im kind of surprised though its rallied as high as it has , but thats what happens in bear markets

it seems a large degree of optimism is returning to the markets so im gearing up for a steep fall soon .

this is just an overview chart as i only get end of day data on djia , i find it difficult to post good charts from my trading platform

[Bilo]

still very much in the bear camp when it comes to the US markets

still counting a wave II in a 3

this wave II appears corrective with many overlaps rather than the clean 5 wave impulses

down , im kind of surprised though its rallied as high as it has , but thats what happens in bear markets

it seems a large degree of optimism is returning to the markets so im gearing up for a steep fall soon .

this is just an overview chart as i only get end of day data on djia , i find it difficult to post good charts from my trading platform

db it looks more to me like a butterfly soaring to over 1400!

[arco]

Hi All

Green and Blue Harmonics are reaching into their PTZ
areas and that plot could potentially form a new Gartley,
Bat or BF. (Provisionally plotted red)

QStick is coiling for a break, and the old broken TL is now
being tested, so we still need a few more days candles to
get a better directional picture.

rgds -arco

[peat]

the gartley is playing out....

[dumbass]

this is my longer time frame analysis

2008 low somewhere around 10000 mark

sharp rally in 2009 retracing a fair chunk of this decline

2009 - 2012 will challenge 10000 again

pretty grim stuff but thats how its looking

however short term its maybe time for a rally back to 12000

[dumbass]

market at a key level

time to position for another short in my opinion

if 1261 pivot doesnt hold then were back down to new lows, if holds rally may limp higher

short if we get a close below 1261

financials are breaking down if techs dont save the day then were back down .

[dumbass]

sp 500 breaking down

lower border of bearish wedge under pressure , a close below pivot 1261 will

confirm next wave lower

[dumbass]

i think the next significant event may be breakdown in equities

check out the h1 1260 pivot on the sp 500 arco , it must give way soon

and then were off to test new lows with what looks like maybe a stronger yen

of course just an opinion

[arco]

Hi DB

Nice BF on SP....target boxed below.

Possibly need to close that window - which also appears on the 4h
Whereas a great deal of emphasis in candlesticks is given to reversal patterns, a window is considered a continuation pattern. In other words, trading is highly probable to continue in the same direction after the window as it did before it.

[arco]

Gaps act as resistance or support.

Heres a gap diagram showing the window being closed and acting as support. If comparing the SP chart - turn this diagram upside down and the gap will act as resistance.

http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechAnalPics/GapsEBAY.gif

[dumbass]

that would make a great short entry, if that gap is closed would take you up to test

polarity on lower wedge boudary.

heres hoping

[arco]

.

Perhaps circa 1290 where 2 TLs meet, and also closing the gap.

Nothing better than if a plan comes together......:)

Plan the trade - trade the plan

arco

[dumbass]

wanted to share this one with you

not too excited until takes out 1260 but nice entry

[arco]

HI Db

I'm not trading that currently although it is available on the ODL
platform, but I don't have an account with them at the moment.

Looks like the plan came together......:)

rgds - arco

[dumbass]

more shorts in at 1250

1260 pivot smashed , i reckon its down to test lows from here

[Dr_Who]

Whats the best site to get a graph for the dow jones?

[dumbass]

there should be plenty of free sites yahoo finance , big charts etc

i can post one , just let me know what you would like on the chart.

[arco]

Dr Who

As a freebie Stockcharts might suit your requirements

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$INDU (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DJIA)

Go to the bottom left of the page and click 'Gallery View'


rgds - arco

[Dr_Who]

Many thanks DA and Arco. :)

Is the Dow a long or short? I cant tell... LOL

[Hoop]

Whats the best site to get a graph for the dow jones?

I use Incredible Charts (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/online_charts/free_download.php) or this one shown below from Digitallook (http://www.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/dlmedia/security.cgi)

I have tarted this one up (from Digitallook) using the paint program and have saved it for my personal use later.
Digitallook is free but have register (no big deal)

From my chart the DOW looks ugly.... bear rally now over and next downtrend in progress....do you Guys agree??

[dumbass]

non farm payrolls tonight may be a market mover

im still completely bearish on dow

bear flag broke as expected and seems inevitable that lows will be tested

i do feel though that the dow will be a buy when what im expecting to be

the final downleg of this wave completes, but expecting a nasty c wave completion to

? 9500 - 10000

[Hoop]

non farm payrolls tonight may be a market mover

im still completely bearish on dow

bear flag broke as expected and seems inevitable that lows will be tested

i do feel though that the dow will be a buy when what im expecting to be

the final downleg of this wave completes, but expecting a nasty c wave completion to

? 9500 - 10000

9500 -10000 ...yep... I'm expecting that ball park figure as well
A very rough and unscientific guide is... "the next downward leg is equal to the previous one"
the previous drop was from 13000 to 11000 (round figures) = 2000

last rally peak was 11500 - 2000 = 9500

[Lizard]

I'm looking at 8500 for the ultimate Dow low, but I guess about the 9900 might yet hold.

[dumbass]

9500 -10000 ...yep... I'm expecting that ball park figure as well
A very rough and unscientific guide is... "the next downward leg is equal to the previous one"
the previous drop was from 13000 to 11000 (round figures) = 2000

last rally peak was 11500 - 2000 = 9500

not at all unscientific l

common elliotwave count A = C of a three wave correction

[Dr_Who]

If it bounces tonight, I may consider shorting the Dow.

[arco]

.

DBs the EW king, but to my thinking this looks like an ABC 3/3/5 with another big fall looming ahead.

[dumbass]

thanks for posting the chart arco, i have not really looked at the dollar index.

nice elliot count , slightly bigger picture suggests may be a 4 th wave correction

and best count c wave of 4th wave.

if this count is correct would allow for current weakness against euro , gbp aud etc

being a correction rather than a new trend.

i kind of buy into this as dollar bullish view getting to extreme levels .

[dumbass]

count on the sp 500 which is similar to dow

entering wave 3 of c lower

the most violent part of the downtrend so buckle up

[arco]

.
Spotted this on Larry Edelsons site.

.

[dumbass]

i think this is one of the clearest counts going.

weekly sp 500 , note on the way up when the 5th is the longest the complete wave is normally retraced.

[dumbass]

very profitable fall on sp 500 for me but can't help feeling a little sad.
im a little speechless!

[dumbass]

right enough of that emotional rubbish and back to business.

i am going to start reviewing US stocks and draw up a portfolio to buy into the market.

This is what i believe to be the final leg lower and should now at last provide some buying opportunities in the next few months.

no hurry as i think were going lower, possibly a lot lower, but the us market was first in and
therefore will be first out.

anyone interested in contributing.

[Dr_Who]

Should we go long or short on the Dow?

[dumbass]

easy dr. , still big short but you need to be thinking next step.

i reckon this will be the final leg lower so need to be thinking what the plan is when it finally bottoms.
how you going to play it , what sectors to look at etc

[Hoop]

right enough of that emotional rubbish and back to business.

i am going to start reviewing US stocks and draw up a portfolio to buy into the market.

This is what i believe to be the final leg lower and should now at last provide some buying opportunities in the next few months.

no hurry as i think were going lower, possibly a lot lower, but the us market was first in and
therefore will be first out.

anyone interested in contributing.

I'll have a crack at contributing D

Looking a very long trends gives a clearer version still.
Why I do this is that very short thinking is interupted by market noise, so the longer you track the clearer the picture however at a disadvantage to the "now" investing. Mind you it does indicate future direction ..well sort of..:).
Below is my updated crappy:( chart of the 36 year DOW. Note the Dow went from secular Bull to Secular bear phase with the 6year trend break back in 2001(indicated on the chart with black vertical lines).
Usually what happens long term in a secular Bear cycle phase is that higher highs are rare and not by much. Lower Lows are likely but normally it will trade between the two.Also a secular bear cycle averages 13 years so roughly once can expect the bear to die after 2014. Therefore during this Secular Bear Cycle expect a trading zone between 12000 and 8000 with rare small break outs on the topside (14000ish in 2007).
At the moment the TA short term using my chart looks to be a leveling out at 9500 TA Target for now (end of wave A?).

It is interesting to point out that historically if you invest at the very beginning of a Secular Bear Market and withdraw at the very end your capital gain is near 0%. Invest the same way during a secular Bull cycle and your capital gains are huge. Therefore the argument for long term investing depends on the secular periods of time. Superannuation a good bet???

So... the argument is... don't expect much in very long term investing strategy except disappointment. It is best to establish shorter term investment strategies until the secular bear cycle runs out of steam...hopefully earlier than later say 2014.

Also interesting is the 12 year trend line is at 10000 not far away and this is above the TA Target of 9500 so the near future looks grim as it is now expected that the 12 year trendline will be broken at some point of time.

D...you should be able to apply the EW waves to this..If I'm right this long term chart shows we are still experiencing the super cycle A wave :( The B wave (when it happens) will be the next bull market phase I guess....I don't want to think about the C wave.



Note...reference for the DOW S&P

NZX is in secular Bull cycle or was until recently ...(Having trouble collecting long term data for determination)

[dumbass]

nice summation hoop,

very much in agreement on your target and what your saying.

A FLAT CORRECTION

one note from elliot wave theory and i believe this will be a likely outcome.
currently in big wave A down , this has an three wave structure.(c wave under way at moment of an abc )
obviously been a deep swift movement but price can not just keeping on moving down exponentially.
the market needs to correct a time component as well , i reckon 3-4 years
so after this leg completes market will rally back up to the high 14000
the b wave could even set a new high.
then back down in a c wave to complete correction to bottom of A

i think this is more than likely , i dont buy into all this end of the world rubbish .

for the first time in a long time im feeling a tad bullish and will now start looking for the capitulation phase over the next few months.

i traded through the nasdaq tech bubble and learnt that the tech stocks did not lead the recoverey so will look not at the financials for any clues but the better performing sectors and i ironically feel its going to be a tech led rallywhich may finish this major wave A

so what are we going to look at ? that is the question and very much aware this is a trade up and jump out at the top of major wave B and then look to short again for the major C.
time wise this B wave could allow a time window of a year to 18 months which is plenty of time to make some coin.

[arco]

.

Just as a matter of interest I see Martin Weiss and Mike Larson are predicting Dow @ 7200

Quote today..........................

"The Dow is still not far from its all-time peaks, with a lot further to fall. Our forecast is unchanged: 7,200 on the Dow".

I'll have a look at chart and see what I throws up

arco

[dumbass]

the rally that occurred in the dollar index ( 70 - 80 ) looks corrective , 3 waves up.

im counting it as a fourth wave and so a fifth wave should be underway for a retest of 70

and probably lower.

nice candlestick reversal on weekly pattern (evening star) should be used as risk limit 80.40

38.2 fib level was tested and strongly rejected.

a word of caution though as price has bounced off 23.6 % level , this may suggest a short term rally to ? 77.25 resistance, before down leg continues.

so in summary , short term could see a strengthening dollar but long term picture suggests new lows.

hope this helps got shorter term charts if your interested.

[dumbass]

i concede everyone thinks i've been smoking crack, but it looks to me more and more like the dow has bottomed.

this is not a bottom that signifies a new bull market but a tradeable B wave which should be multi month rally.

[Hoop]

i concede everyone thinks i've been smoking crack, but it looks to me more and more like the dow has bottomed.

this is not a bottom that signifies a new bull market but a tradeable B wave which should be multi month rally.

Dumbass on your original post #36 you have the C wave bottom on your chart (S&P500) 1060 is that correct (a bit hard to see the chart).

It seems logical that this could be a grounding point to look at for the time being or a very important index number for us to look at, ..especially if these points breaks.

Interesting to note that the S&P 500 closed today at 1106 the present TA target is 1100.

There maybe a pause or up bounce at a watershed DOW's 10000 as it is not only a psychological number and an old TA target point, but MORE importantly to the trendies it is the 12 yrs uptrendline intersect so one would assume if SP500 target of Dumbass's1060 holds so will the DOW's 10000. If it doesn't hold..and it has a good chance it won't** ..The next selling wave maybe initiated by the trendies rather from the Fibs, and EWists.
Using the trendline theory the DOW10000 has to hold and be the bottom now at this point of time if investors want this bear market to end.
As investors have observed when uptrend lines are broken there is more pain and for a longer period. How this will affect the NZX ASX (if it happens) is unsure.

**now that it has broken the support level of 10600 if the index keeps downtrending the new TA target would be 10600 -(11800-10600) = 9400.

Thoughts anyone..

[dumbass]

hey hoop ,

i think when the momentum builds as it is , technical levels become a little academic.

it reminds me of the nasdaq melt down where technical level after level just got blown away.

sentiment is the overiding factor at the moment and today was the first real panic day.

One day the market will wake up and say enough is enough and leave a few technical clues to a reversal but where that is i dont think anyone can predict.

im just enjoying the ride and licking my lips as to the bargains to be had , but no hurry.
i suspect your the same.

[Hoop]

hey hoop ,

i think when the momentum builds as it is , technical levels become a little academic.

it reminds me of the nasdaq melt down where technical level after level just got blown away.

sentiment is the overiding factor at the moment and today was the first real panic day.

One day the market will wake up and say enough is enough and leave a few technical clues to a reversal but where that is i dont think anyone can predict.

im just enjoying the ride and licking my lips as to the bargains to be had , but no hurry.
i suspect your the same.

Technical levels are very important chart points.. you surprise me Dumbass after reading your postings...Emotion creeping in is it? ;)

i suspect your the same.
Actually no I'm not:):o
I've dipped my toes in the marketplace bought up some of my old shares I sold out of last November, for about half the price. These shares triggered buy signals at that time a few weeks ago. Sold one last week again for a loss as it turned sour on me.
I take the view that we are in Bear market (3) so the end is closer plus equities have a habit of turning upwards half way through a recession phase and I take the view that I will never pick the bottom..so settle for small entries from here on in when buy signals are triggered. Still got lots in cash though :D

[Hoop]

Dumbass on your original post #36 you have the C wave bottom on your chart (S&P500) 1060 is that correct (a bit hard to see the chart).

It seems logical that this could be a grounding point to look at for the time being or a very important index number for us to look at, ..especially if these points breaks.

Interesting to note that the S&P 500 closed today at 1106 the present TA target is 1100.

There maybe a pause or up bounce at a watershed DOW's 10000 as it is not only a psychological number and an old TA target point, but MORE importantly to the trendies it is the 12 yrs uptrendline intersect so one would assume if SP500 target of Dumbass's1060 holds so will the DOW's 10000. If it doesn't hold..and it has a good chance it won't** ..The next selling wave maybe initiated by the trendies rather from the Fibs, and EWists.
Using the trendline theory the DOW10000 has to hold and be the bottom now at this point of time if investors want this bear market to end.
As investors have observed when uptrend lines are broken there is more pain and for a longer period. How this will affect the NZX ASX (if it happens) is unsure.

**now that it has broken the support level of 10600 if the index keeps downtrending the new TA target would be 10600 -(11800-10600) = 9400.

Thoughts anyone..

Broke through 10000 support intra day to bounce off 9500:) (old TA target**) and closed at 9995 sitting on its 12 yr trendline support

Will that trend line hold for now?
Is that 9500 intra day the point where the start of the next rally commences?
Or is this selling pressure too strong and blows away the TA targets and old resistence points, A=C and Fibs adding further capitulation...Nah!!
Hoop being an optimist/realist? (a rare breed at the moment) thinks the bottom (for now?) is close...there are too many impediments in the way of the fall through the 9000 zone at this point of time...maybe a slight chance in the future perhaps? better chance it is the bottom?


**I revaluated from 9500 to 9400 when the DOW broke the 10600

[dumbass]

Hi Hoop,
Still no real clear sign market has in anyway bottomed out.
sp500 1061 was a significant pivot point and just got blown through and more importantly closed below this level.
Market will need to close above 1061 and hold before any upside action.
Not even oversold on daily.
No candlestick suggestive of a bottom.
Id say with this kind of downward momentum it seems prudent to expect follow through action.

as i said prior, technical levels not too relevant , the big power players can move huge funds around at speed so this is a market that will not respect technicals per se.

on the positive VIX has just posted a record close.

so yes closer to the bottom than the top but if your a few days out with your bottom you may be on the wrong side of another thousand points.

why not wait for a nice big hammer, a cofirmed uptrend and a nice retracement repecting a low point?

dont catch the knife !

[Hoop]

Hi Hoop,
Still no real clear sign market has in anyway bottomed out.
sp500 1061 was a significant pivot point and just got blown through and more importantly closed below this level.
Market will need to close above 1061 and hold before any upside action.
Not even oversold on daily.
No candlestick suggestive of a bottom.
Id say with this kind of downward momentum it seems prudent to expect follow through action.

as i said prior, technical levels not too relevant , the big power players can move huge funds around at speed so this is a market that will not respect technicals per se.

on the positive VIX has just posted a record close.

so yes closer to the bottom than the top but if your a few days out with your bottom you may be on the wrong side of another thousand points.

why not wait for a nice big hammer, a cofirmed uptrend and a nice retracement repecting a low point?

dont catch the knife !

Dumbass I think I found a big red hammer:) at the bottom of this page (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6382&page=3)
the DOW last close

Nah ..stopped catching falling knives many years ago (when I ran out of fingers:()

Didn't buy anything today just observed ..pity;)

DOW S&P bounce tomorrow methinks :)

[Hoop]

oh forgot to mention

why not wait for a nice big hammer, a cofirmed uptrend and a nice retracement repecting a low point?

Dumbass..The same reason why you don't totally rely on technicals or anything else at the moment
At the end of Bear market (3) nothing works very well, just too volatile... its been that case through out history.

edit......oh I'm wrong ....One thing still works.. the Dow Theory

[dumbass]

hey hoop,
im picking more downside pressure , not really seen a european banking crisis yet , which in my opinion seems inevitable.
yes it was a nice hammer but still big drop and will be followed through with more selling.

[AMR]

I've been seeing all these bullish engulfing candlesticks followed by a bearish engulfing candlestick. Pretty confusing at the moment, there's too much volatility to read.

[AMR]

Wow DA, it looks like your caution was warranted.

[Hoop]

Wow DA, it looks like your caution was warranted.
Yep Dumbass good call
so much for that hammer

[dumbass]

a level which holds some significance is the 68% retracement not to be confused with the fib 61.8 level.
its significant from the view if retracements occuring in thirds.

dow 68 % retracement of recent bull market at 9438

i looked on this as the last big reversal zone if we get a close below that then the earth will tilt of its axis and we will all be doomed.

[dumbass]

close below 9438 now brings the likelyhood of full retracement of this total bull market.
which would take dow to 6300 region.

[Hoop]

a level which holds some significance is the 68% retracement not to be confused with the fib 61.8 level.
its significant from the view if retracements occuring in thirds.

dow 68 % retracement of recent bull market at 9438

i looked on this as the last big reversal zone if we get a close below that then the earth will tilt of its axis and we will all be doomed.

DOW closed at 9258
Dumbass...tickets on sale to leave earth (http://www.space.com/news/060828_spaceshiptwo_next.html) $200,000 :) ...unfortunately it's only for a short duration:(.

Seriously..I think the broken supports and crashing through retracement levels and TA targets is having a effect on lessening the downward momentum..there are positive signs on Wall St of some upward buying pressure emerging. Haven't updated my charts yet.
Also the multitude of Financial patches being applied to the wounds in global unison also has large upward pressure potential

Hoop gut feeling is that there is a unusual lead lag effect happening at present.

Lead - lag theory is a black box to me not much comprehensional data around. Is there any TA indicators that touch on this subject?

[dumbass]

Seriously..I think the broken supports and crashing through retracement levels and TA targets is having a effect on lessening the downward momentum..there are positive signs on Wall St of some upward buying pressure emerging. Haven't updated my charts yet.
?

hey hoop , a couple of failed rally attempts , market selling off end of day
coordinated central bank intervention have stuff all effect.
still looks pretty grim to me

[dumbass]

Full bull market retracements have happened twice before on the Dow
The 1921-1929 bull market during 1929-1932, and the 1970-1973 bull market during 1973-1974. In both cases there was some overshoot on the downside.

[Xerof]

Just sit back, relax and wait for the key-day-reversal to tell you when a bottom is found. Might be as soon as next week, but catching the falling knife is the death of a thousand cuts

[dumbass]

exactly!!!!!

[Hoop]

Dow as at today
The red dot is the close this morning. close to another small support level

Interesting to note that bottom back in 2002 crash created major support levels that coincides within the region of the 15years Fibonacci 61.8% retracement (as far back as I can go)...fascinating

Below that 61.8% there is very little resistance until Dumbass' 6300 region

[dumbass]

Dow down 22% in last six days , thats a bear market in its self.

ugly ugly with very little chance of a bounce.
futures up significantly in pre trade then failed rally after failed rally then massive , and i mean massive stealth selling waves to close at lows of the day.
How can you be anything but short.

[dumbass]

classic hammer on daily about to print , even looking at a positive close but order imbalances may take it to negative close but who cares.
seems to be some optimism that G7 may bank roll interbank trades.
lets see how it pans out , at least a positive candle.

[Craig3215]

Love that hammer dumbass i'm looking for a run up next week lets hope we open up a bit on monday... i thought this was kinda funny
http://www.morganstanley.com/about/awards/articles/3260.html

[dumbass]

hi craig , heres a weekly chart of dow.

100 % retracement of bull market from 2002 is getting close at 7200

full bull market retracements have happened twice before with the biggest overshoot being 13 %.

so 6300 in the frame.

looking at it from a technical perspective seems highly likely to test 2002 level at 7200.
78.6 has provided no support and has closed below for the week.

However it aint a technical market so with a sentiment change a reversal could happen anyday and it should be a douzey of a rally.

[Hoop]

hi craig , heres a weekly chart of dow.

100 % retracement of bull market from 2002 is getting close at 7200

full bull market retracements have happened twice before with the biggest overshoot being 13 %.

so 6300 in the frame.

looking at it from a technical perspective seems highly likely to test 2002 level at 7200.
78.6 has provided no support and has closed below for the week.

However it aint a technical market so with a sentiment change a reversal could happen anyday and it should be a douzey of a rally.

Yep... the rally could be a big one when it happens, shaping up to be V- shaped as there is no resistance at the moment back up until you hit those old support levels, which are now resistance levels around the mid-9500 to 10000 range.
...the rubber band theory in the making or its modern day equivalent of the bungy cord rebound:)..could be a AJ Hackett dream coming true as that cord is stretched to hell and back:D

As mentioned from an earlier post Xerof Quote Just sit back, relax and wait for the key-day-reversal to tell you when a bottom is found. Might be as soon as next week, but catching the falling knife is the death of a thousand cuts ... it was nearly a key reversal day on the DOW S&P Friday ..I think you could class NASDAQ as one but it is clouded by the fact that the DOW and S&P fell back into negative territory just at the close of session Friday.
We seem to have those hammers back again ;)

[arco]

I placed this on the ASX thread with an explanation

Post 85
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=6382

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/09/21/weekinreview/20080921_LEONHARDT_GRFK_A.html


.

[Lizard]

Hi Arco,

Well, that looks like about a 30% decline in prices still required if I read that right? (Making the radical assumption that earnings aren't going to increase by 40%...)

But then, after that, P/E's might not go up on the back of rising prices, but rather could simply rise due to a decline in earnings? Bullish in terms of P/E but not necessarily in terms of equities. Though I guess at least it would improve the odds of making money on stocks if the prices simply held steady!

(Need to put it next to a similar scale chart of the Dow maybe to see how strong the link has been in the past?)

[dumbass]

lizard, chart is dated 21 september so we would now be in value territory,as p/e will have dropped significantly.

[Lizard]

lizard, chart is dated 21 september so we would now be in value territory,as p/e will have dropped significantly.

Thanks dumbass, good point! :)

Just had a look to see if there is up to date data and I'm wondering if that chart is correct or whether it was calculated post Mar08 based on index levels and assuming constant earnings? The S&P web-site (http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_500/2,3,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,1,11,0,0,0,0,0.html) says the P/E ratio at 30 September 2008 was 22.50.

[Lizard]

Could also be the difference between operating earnings and reported earnings P/E. Dow web-site had average trailing P/E (including negatives) of 15.68 and P/E (excluding negatives) of 12.73 as at 30 September.

Also has lower forecast P/E's indicating earnings growth is still being forecast.

[Hoop]

Interesting chart Arco

Noting the P/E Ratio if this shake out continues and P/E falls below 10, once the market turns up (P/E Ratio wise) It will signal the end (premature) of the secular Bear Market and a commencement of the new secular Bull market.

Previously on the other thread investing strategies and secular bear markets the duration of the secular bear averages about 11 -13 years but it depends on the P/E Ratio not time. The Wall St crash in 1929-1932 those 4 years drop killed the secular bear in 4 years. On the other thread we estimated under "normal" situations that the secular bear would survive until about 2014 it seems it could be now 2008/ 2009 ?? if this bear market lives in into 2009.
It seems even black clouds have silver linings

(near duplicate of this post written on IVASBM thread)

[arco]

.

I notice current PE ratios are available off the DJ website.

http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showAvgStats

arco

[arco]

.
The devastation is quite apparent when you see it in a weekly chart.

................. 5 years of growth wiped out in a year.

.

[Packersoldkidney]

I would be very hesitant about assessing stocks on the basis of P/E's - but I don't need to tell Arco that is he is the best TA person I've ever come across.

The issue with P/E's is obviously that they are lagging indicators - current P/E's were established in the previous bull market and booming world economy, both of which are now gone. Stocks on the Dow may well be still hideously overvalued, even taking into account recent falls - but we won't know that in a fundamental sense until company profits evaporate in the face of a global recession.

[dumbass]

What a day , what a day !

looks like end of wave A and into B wave rally

heres a history lesson on previous bear markets to remind everyone this is a tradeable BEAR MARKET rally.

1929: started with a 50% crash drop, retraced 50%, and then eroded for months on end to much lower levels, took 34 months.
1937: started with a 50% drop over 12 months, with a 40% crash in the middle, retraced 62%, and then eroded for months on end to a double bottom, took 61 months.
1973: started quitely, had a 62% retracement after the first drop, then crashed 33% near the end, and the market lost a total of 47%, took 23 months.
2007: started quietly, is near a 50% drop, with a 34% crash near the end, and this has taken 12 months SO FAR

[dumbass]

should find out in the next few days if this rally is the real deal

retracement in progress already bounced off 38.2 fib level

61.8 level 919 with pivot point just below at 912.

if this level is tested would make a good long entry with risk 830, if this level fails then most likely down to new lows.

[dumbass]

what a day,what a day, what a dawg gone day.
key pivot and 61.8 retracement smashed.
this market is going lower, faded the decline, kitchen sink on at break off pivot.
hopefully full retracement of bull market on the cards.

[Corporate]

what a day,what a day, what a dawg gone day.
key pivot and 61.8 retracement smashed.
this market is going lower, faded the decline, kitchen sink on at break off pivot.
hopefully full retracement of bull market on the cards.

Hopefully?

[dumbass]

thats the idea when your short , you hope the market goes down ?

[Packersoldkidney]

thats the idea when your short , you hope the market goes down ?

Maybe he wants to lose money? I can suggest a drug habit or gambling, addiction to prostitutes or maybe even run for President of the USA? They seem to be the best situations to be in if you want to squander the hard-earned, or others hard-earned, in the latter case.

[peat]

Thought I'd have a say seeing as this is where all the action is. NB Only demo for me.

Its found support around the 8300 level (the 78% retracement of the big bounce) - if I traded this I would be considering that right now. Of course below 7900 blows it away again. Initial target would be 9100

Just as a bit of light entertainment on Sept 23rd I put a short in here on the demo and forgot about it. I came back into the demo system for the first time on fri last week and closed it out for a massive 2500 points. lol.

[dumbass]

hey peat , id say that was a pretty positive day for the markets , i saw the 78.6 bounce which could be interpreted as a retest of those panic lows.
my feeling is we may see a bit of a range for now between the low and the rally high,9900 - 7900 maybe a triangle flag set up before next move lower.
i reckon even the bears have got to be feeling a bit exhausted.
i got stopped on a trailing for a result but just missed my target.

[AMR]

Yes I think all the sellers have sold and theere's no one left to sell. Agree regarding the base building comment, we are currently well below any trendlines.

I took a long last night but pulled it after feeling uncomfortable about pursuing something on a mere gut feel.

[Hoop]

As you guys said the Dow respected the 78% retracement early intraday trading today, adds a little more reinforcement to that very weak support line at 8200 or thereabouts:)

Nice blue hammer :cool: a promising sign. A key reversal event?

DA, I agree this present down wave may be running out of steam, the bear should be getting tired mauling all the markets at once. This series of deleveraging within all markets is nearly over methinks. Most hedge funds and margin calls have been actioned (exhausted) so should see a reduction in seller numbers for the time being, unless another economic bomb unexpectly explodes.

IF the 7800 bottom holds there looks to be two trading ranges the DOW could settle into...the 8200-10000 or the 10000-11800 for the time being.

[dumbass]

i think there aren't many bulls out there , after a 1000 point rally it was clear there was no follow through buying and if ever there was a reason for money to move in , a 1000 point rally would normally do it.
today was missing the normally large wave bear selling in the final hour as i thought the market was there for the taking,
so stale mate in a range i guess but things can change so quickly.

[dumbass]

Most of the focus at the moment has been on the various bail out plans being touted around the globe which are capturing the headlines.
Reviewing the economic data out of the States this week makes truly ugly reading.

Friday :
UOM reported a sharp fall in consumer sentiment 57.5 vs 70.3.

Housing starts were reported -6.3% to their worse level in 17 years.

Thursday :
the CPI and core CPI were reported flat, Industrial production continues to contract -2.8% vs. -1.0%,

unemployment claims contracted 16K to 461K.

Philly FED reported a sharp fall off in regional manufacturing -37.5 vs. +3.8.

Wednesday :
Retail sales dropped 1.2%, and the Empire index dropped a contracting -24.6. The PPI reported a decline, but the core PPI rose 0.4%.

[arco]

May be of interest......................

Free streaming quotes.............e-mini dow options and others

http://datasuiterdc.cme.com/eeio/options_YM.html

[Footsie]

by my calcs the p/e at 11.7x at S& P of around 900.

So what does that mean?
well we still aint at 7x, but probably if you averaged in over the next 6-9 months you'd probably do very well.

[dumbass]

hey peat , id say that was a pretty positive day for the markets , i saw the 78.6 bounce which could be interpreted as a retest of those panic lows.
my feeling is we may see a bit of a range for now between the low and the rally high,9900 - 7900 maybe a triangle flag set up before next move lower.
i reckon even the bears have got to be feeling a bit exhausted.
i got stopped on a trailing for a result but just missed my target.

looking like a triangle is indeed playing out which should keep it bouncing around before the fifth wave to new lows i think

[peat]

yeh a few fake rallies as the fear subsides and enough time for some snippets of confidence to return and then bammo!

[arco]

Hi DB

Interesting chart...............................could try to test the DT line

[dumbass]

preferred count looks like in a triangle set up, which in elliot wave theory is most likely a fourth wave before a fifth wave takes us lower , magnitude of wave structure may take us to around 6500.

no divergence on indicators and triangle is relieving oversold levels.

nothing at all to suggest anything other than down.

[dumbass]

We now have double positive divergences on the hourly charts, and divergences on every time frame in the major indices. The pivot at SPX 789 should provide some significant support and a positive reversal at this level may be the spring board for a bear market rally.
A butterfly is also backing things up.

finger on the buy button should know in a couple of days

[AMR]

dumbass, can you access up-to-date market breadth data such as the New High New Low index? Or the number of stocks making fresh 20 day lows?

[dumbass]

sorry Amr i dont use or have access to that info.

Despite the US market rallying over 6% on friday it was still a nasty week. The SPX broke through its 2002 low on thursday, wiping out the 2002-2007 bull market in only 13 months.
Some technical damage done which points to more juice in this downtrend, looks like its heading to the 600,s for SP

[AMR]

True that. I see a downwards breakout from a descending triangle, this recent rally has just hit the resistance from that.

[Hoop]

DOW closed at 8934 (up 298)
DOW broke upwards today out of its medium term (3month) downtrend channel....this is positive upward move.

Where to from here?

TA wise... huge band of resistance levels around the 9500-10500 range The DOW going to have to work hard to break through this band...maybe a to harder nut to crack under this present climate. (it broke through 8950 resistance level intra-day today but fell back)

So with this v shape type of activity happening maybe at 8934 it is too late to enter long this time round. Thoughts.

If the DOW reaches and respects the 9500 band that is a good rally of 9500-7500 = 2000 . This would equate to a 37% Rally... have to be extremely nimble (or lucky) to catch that type of gain in this tough V shaped market.

Looking at the first chart it looks easy in hindsight...jump in long at the bottom channel line there were 3 opportunities in the last 3 months (2 realistically) to make a huge gain.....however now the index has broken out of that channel the rules have changed.

[arco]

Hello Hoop

Don't trade DJIA myself, but the 4H YMZ8 chart has just printed 2 Shooting Stars, so that may be mildly bearish at least in the short term.

The real body of the perfect Shooting Star and a prior candle's real body ideally should have a gap between them and no lower wick but this is not the case here although it is not a absolute necessity. Ahead Kumo on the IKH has presently turned thinly bearish.

On completion of the next 2 x 4H candle at 4/8PM a more clearer picture may emerge.

rgds -arco

[arco]

Hello Hoop

Don't trade DJIA myself, but the 4H YMZ8 chart has just printed 2 Shooting Stars, so that may be mildly bearish at least in the short term.

The real body of the perfect Shooting Star and a prior candle's real body ideally should have a gap between them and no lower wick but this is not the case here although it is not a absolute necessity. Ahead Kumo on the IKH has presently turned thinly bearish.

On completion of the next 2 x 4H candle at 4/8PM a more clearer picture may emerge.

rgds -arco

Depending on your entry point and appetite for risk there has been up to +280 points in move down so far.

arco

[dumbass]

Well it looked like this baby was rallying but now the rally has been fully retraced and appears a downtrend is underway again .

SP 500 took out critical support last night and i would suspect dow is going to confirm by taking out 8000 pretty soon.

This looks like the final wave down but the bad news is its only the major A wave of this bear market.

B wave will bring a rally probably around 50 % of wave A and then back down for the C wave.

[dumbass]

Today the DOW reached a level not seen since Oct 1997, An entire decade wiped out in 16 months,
however for the first time in a very long time there are some signs that this A wave may be coming to a conclusion.
probably a small rally from here and then a new terminal low could signal the start of a rally higher (B wave )
i would expect to see some divergence in indicators across all time frames and it looks like this is shaping up.
shopping list ready and waiting for confirmation sub 7000

[peat]

At the end of trading on Monday, Feb. 23, 2009, Robert Prechter closed the most successful trading recommendation of his 30-year career. His advice to "cover" the position came near the end of the trading day, when subscribers received the February 2009 issue of his Elliott Wave Theorist. This closed a “fully leveraged short position” he recommended to Theorist subscribers on July 17, 2007, when the S&P was at 1550. At the time of publication on Monday, Feb. 23, the S&P was trading below 750

[airedale]

Hi Peat, that is impressive. At the time it was contrary to most pundits' opinions.

[peat]

its their promo needless to say I didnt get the newsletter at the time.
I dont doubt it tho. He is a strong contrarian, and it would also seem a permabear.

[arco]

I wonder what his % of right/wrong is.

I believe Crest of the Tidal Wave was way out on timing

[peat]

exactly arco... i've re-examined those analyses they gave some time ago during their free week (I posted a few) and it wasnt awe-spiring

its easy to make lots of calls and then promote the ones that worked

what will be interesing now to is to see whether we do have any sort of rally over the next few days/weeks/months.

[Hoop]

I'm trying to gauge the strength of this last rally DOW closed up 500 at 7776 this morning breaking through the 7450 (7500) resistance. The next barrier for the upward DOW is that massive resistance band 7900-8500 that the DOW had trouble breaking down through it in Jan -Feb this year.

Is the DOW strong enough to break through this 7900-8500...My initial thoughts is "no way" this time may be later but how much later? With this massive 500 leap through the 7500 resistance area I'm now in doubt.


Cut and paste from my other post...

Can the DOW get to 8600 soon? I think Ichimoku charts may help to analyse how strong the DOW is, in relation to the strength of that 7900-8500 resistance band, by seeing where the Kumo is and whether the DOW has passed above it or not. I suspect the Kumo maybe situated around the 7900 -8500 ...are my suspicions correct? Can any Ichimoku followers help with this?

I have looked at setting up an Excel program as mentioned in the link posted by Arco (post #5 on the Forex/Ichimoku magic thread) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=4326)

Is there an easier way?:( ...a website (preferably free;)) allowing us to use TA charts analysis with an Ichimoku indicator option built in?

[Lotto]

Hoop, this maybe what you are looking for. I have attached a link.
You have to sign in then go to the chart section, basic charts, live chart, then select a study. Hope this helps
[IMG]http://www.advfn.com/

[Lotto]

Hoop I meant to add that you can drag the chart out to see out to May..not that I understand it though
I'm a newee here Do enjoy reading the posts and am trying to learn as I go

[peat]

The crossover of the tenken sen (blue) with the kijun sen (red) would be the first signal of bullishness and now that the chikou span (cyan) has crossed the 27 day old price that is further confirmation but the cloud offers resistance and is falling .

[dumbass]

quite a case for a correction unfolding.

channel line hit , and uptrend line broken , divergence on rsi and A=C wave count a common reversal relationship.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/omxrg2ub.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

http://iforce.co.nz/i/xrxl0cgn.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)
HOWEVER
After the SPX bottomed at 667 it started to impulse higher for the first time since 2007. These impulsing waves then began morphing into rising diagonal triangles. The first one topped in late March at SPX 833, and then pulled back 53 points to 780. The next one topped in mid-April at SPX 876, and then pulled back 49 points to SPX 827. From that low the market impulsed to SPX 930 a week ago, and has now pulled back 51 points to 879 on friday. Notice the symmetry in the pullbacks.
there is an alternatine bullish count which suggests this pullback is already complete.the key level is 875

http://iforce.co.nz/i/jlox5ryn.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

[dumbass]

hi peat , got this from max this morning.

thinking along same lines A WAVE COMPLETE NOW IN B WAVE , long from here target into 1000 + sp.

I still reckon hes promoting a count which will ultimately take us back down to 400.
i do sort of agree.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/4dv12wz3.gif (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

[peat]

nice timing DA

I drew this but never managed to pull the trigger

[dumbass]

hey peat , this was a mouth watering risk reward trade.

risked 10 points for a 100 point target ( 1000 sp 500 )

[peat]

:cool:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/This-rally-is-all-bull-pd20090521-S8SGD?OpenDocument&src=kgb

[Hoop]

Alan Kohler....You don't scare me.:p

AK Opening Quote: ..."The stockmarket rally is now being driven by the same force that set up the excesses that led to the bust in the first place – an abundance of liquidity....."

so very very true....it is called an economic cycle:rolleyes:. This event happens every time there is a recovery in sight......yawn..

[peat]

so whats everyone here thinking about the US equity market? Dow or SP500
I'm reading the freebie stuff from gann global - his latest comment is :


Today’s trade in the S&P 500 and Soybean complex have not
compromised the integrity of our forecasts or our trading patterns
for potentially entering short positions.
Rather, they have increased oth the probability for dramatic declines
if the reversals take place and the likelihood the overall declines
will be more extensive.

From what I've been reading his take is that a break thru 922 will demonstrate a decline is underway and to short at 916 (presumably that will be confirmation)

Seems to be a pretty common viewpoint in that I read it somewhere else as well.

the butterfly pattern I posted ages ago has potentially played out now. but from a pattern view there always remains the possibility of a lot more and which one should position oneself for , on the other hand theres a lot of indecision showing in the candles on the daily, and divergence on the rsi. also looking a bit triple toppish.

so i guess we let it tell us.

[peat]

colin twiggs thinks 'the trend is about to bend

The S&P 500 displays a similar pattern to the Dow, consolidating between 930 and 950. Weak bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow (21-Day) would be strengthened if the indicator retreats to zero. Breakout above 950 would indicate a rally to test 1000, while reversal below 930 would signal the end of the bear market rally


down to 922 now on the S+P.

[dumbass]

i reckon he's a little early in calling a top but it looks highly probable its in or at worst very close.

912 is a key pivot , ascending wedge has broken to the downside.




http://iforce.co.nz/i/x41lp15v.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

[arco]

HI All

Using your chart DB.
Pivot 4,5 (6 and 7 not shown) creates a Bullish BF for the short term - maybe a test towards the underside lower red TL. Once tested - bang goes yer mangoes!

Using your green line doest it also look like the start of a H&S top. Already you can see the potential first shoulder (3) and head

arco

[Hoop]

Yes Peat...is the trend going to bend??

What nobody seems to focus on is the fact that most of the Global Stock Exchange indexes are in primary uptrends except for the big three DOW S&P500 and FTSE.

The million dollar questions are ..it looks a better than 50/50 chance that the big 3's bear market rally is nearing an end...therefore, is their bear market downtrend resumption going to be big enough to end the primary uptrends of the other indices ...or will the big 3 recover quickly to join the rest of the world. (breaking up through 9000, 1000, 4650 respectively)

Of interest: - The 2 countries involved with the big 3 indexes (DOW S&P500 and FTSE) are/were the biggest contributors to the Iraq War effort.
Don't know how much it has cost the British economy, but some very low profile figures from the USA suggest that over 30% of the USA debt is Iraq related.

[dumbass]

hi hoop , seems incongruous to me that other markets could maintain an uptrend as the US markets are taken down.

[Mick100]

hi hoop , seems incongruous to me that other markets could maintain an uptrend as the US markets are taken down.

It's going to happen one day DA - I don't know when

china is rapidly evolving from an export to a consumption economy

[dumbass]

sure will Mick but not in the context of this bear market.

[Hoop]

sure will Mick but not in the context of this bear market.

Yeah ..I sadly agree that a big US equity decline would still have a big influence on the rest of the worlds equity markets......but is a diminishing influence as China grows at a faster rate.

...but who says there is going to be a steep decline of the DOW S&P???

there is a strong band of supports between 7900 -8200 a very strong support level 8250 and another lesser support created recently at 8600.


On the top side..the 9000 resistance line is the biggee (primary resistance level) it is very strong and also adding to this resistance is the bottom end of the kumo cloud is also hanging at 9000 and lasting in this position until mid August. Also the Bollinger bands are still wide signaling no change of the trend.

So a good bet would be a continuation of the right hand shoulder creation with the index range bound between 8250 and 9000 for next month or two.


This shoulder creation scenario for the big 3 DOW S&P500 and FTSE would not jeopardise the other world equity markets upward recovery trend. It's hard to imagine that all these other markets (not only equity market) would have all given a false bull market uptrend signals.

[peat]

912 is a key pivot

interesting. gann global have released their update this morning at 6:39am (tho its delayed as its only subscriber calibre not actual subscriber) and it says to sell at 912 with a stop at 956.23 (on the cash index)
Price right now = 911.9 so they are IN with a short.

Heres a screen shot you see he bases his trade on soy beans on the S+P as well.

[dumbass]

morning peat,i reckon you could probably get a better entry than 912 as there should be a bounce from this level as market is getting quite oversold short term.
alternatively i would wait for a break of 912 , i allow a 5 point margin of error on the key pivot points so looking at 907.

[Dr_Who]

Just out of interest, why do you guys prefer to trade the S&P instead of the dow?

I ve never traded any of these index and was just curious. Thanks.

[peat]

yes I tend to agree DA

Dr - for me its because its a smaller contract. Its also very liquid tho whether more so than the DOW or not I wouldnt be sure.

As an index based on a larger range of companies it probably reflects the market as a whole better but practically its a pretty perfect correlation with the DOW

[peat]

bang goes yer mangoes!



http://www.biggie.co.nz/interaction/forum/images/smiles/bluelaugh.gif

[arco]

http://www.biggie.co.nz/interaction/forum/images/smiles/bluelaugh.gif

http://cooktobang.com/2009/05/18/bango-your-mango-chicken-curry/

:D

[Xerof]

I'll have a Panty Dropping Shandy to go with that :D:D

[Dr_Who]

http://cooktobang.com/2009/05/18/bango-your-mango-chicken-curry/

:D

Cooking curry requires so much ingredients and time that it is much easier to eat out.... YUMMY!

http://www.biggie.co.nz/interaction/forum/images/smiles/bluelaugh.gif

[arco]

Glenn Neely (EW) on the S&P - below 500 prediction

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009/06/prweb2537224.htm

[Jess9]

Thanks Arco. flicked L/T superfunds into cash funds tonight. Hopefully the wave goes at least another week. Swap over is slow.

[Hoop]

Glenn Neely (EW) on the S&P - below 500 prediction

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009/06/prweb2537224.htm

Interesting article Arco:

Dumbass ..you using Elliott Waves analysis also predicts a big downwave ..correct?

If this scenario happens what are the leading indicator signs ....

...End of price rising trend in commodities and primary downtrend resumes.
...US$ index breaks up through 83 rises above the 2008-2009 double top.
...VIX rises suddenly (volatility)breaking its primary downtrend.
...Sudden fall in interest rates (e.g 5yr swaps).
...Loss of appetite for investing..e.g Capital raising failures.
...Unusual large Movements of money towards Super power currencies and their Govt guaranteed financial institutions.
... Sudden interest in short selling of equities.
...Unexpected deflation data. move from slow increasing inflation to sudden deflation.
...many others but all I can think of "off the top of my head".

Affects of a S&P500 index 500 figure towards the World's economic system

Another financial melt down...more money evaporation...possible global financial collapse this time.
More money needed to be injected into the system that is already stretched.
Extended recession and more severe (remember equity markets recover 58% through a recession rule). Probably recession word replaced by Depression word.
Depression equals 20%+ unemployed.
Behavioural scientists theorise that anarchy trigger occurs at about the 23% unemployment point
No-where for people with money to hide...outside the super powers the rest of the currencies devalue and superpowers throw up their financial borders barriers.
Interest rates going negative
Trade slows and protectionism reigns supreme.
Company collapses
Social misery, crime, social system breakdown..etc
System collapse possible. Sudden changing of laws and regulations.
Etc Etc

For the investor
Misery

except long term ..is excellent
Sudden end to secular bear cycles allowing no limit to old equity boom peaks.. so sudden and rapid recovery.
Stupid and costly laws have vanished giving people and companies room to move and extra profits. (breath of fresh air)


Sounds very similar to the 1929-1933 Depression era...huh?


The question has to be raised can this happen again ..now??

I personally still rate this as a low chance unless a black swan event occurs.
...I can sadly visualise one happening..mutation of the Swine flu virus to a more deadly form and creating a second wave of infection and less responsive to the new vaccine being created at the moment. The last H1N1 virus pandemic was in 1918 .. which did exactly that..mutated.

On a happier note for investors
We have had 3 flu pandemics in the last 100 years and it has not affected the Equity markets over that medium term.
Strange as it may seem it was after the 1916-1917 bear when the deadly flu pandemic occurred in 1918-1919 the DOW actually grew +10% and +30% respectively. The DOW was in a secular bear market cycle at that time.

During the 1957-58 flu pandemic (asian flu) the DOW was -17% and +34% respectively. DOW was in the middle a secular bull market cycle

During the 1968-1969 Hong Kong flu pandemic the DOW was +4% and -15% repectively. DOW was in a secular bear market cycle.

[arco]

Guys

Here is my S&P prediction.

Down to the 500 area, and eventually a move up to circa 1200-1300

Not sure how long all that will take

arco

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/90a843febe.gif (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)

.

[dumbass]

right guys thoughts appreciated
looking for a short entry , 5 waves down and 3 wave correction in progress.
the way i see it 935 is the critical level and must hold, if thats taken out we are going higher.
923 looks interesting.
im going full in and some especially if it gets close to 935.



http://iforce.co.nz/i/dnjbolpc.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

[ananda77]

Guys

Here is my S&P prediction.

Down to the 500 area, and eventually a move up to circa 1200-1300

Not sure how long all that will take

arco

...totally agree on a long term basis;

...there is a possibility that SPX 500 *956 was a temporary top, motivating the market to test the March low, but it is too early to make this call right now; however:

...*956 did not coincide with extreme readings usually connected with important changes in market trends; consequently, at present it seems likely, that the current leg up is not finished yet and will make a new high after the current correction has run it's course and that the March low will hold...


right guys thoughts appreciated
looking for a short entry , 5 waves down and 3 wave correction in progress.
the way i see it 935 is the critical level and must hold, if thats taken out we are going higher.
923 looks interesting.
im going full in and some especially if it gets close to 935.

...it's option expiry trading tonight and yes, there is outside potential for the SPX 500 to test *956; would not like to be short above *935 however;

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

...totally agree on a long term basis;
Guys

Here is my S&P prediction.

Down to the 500 area, and eventually a move up to circa 1200-1300

Not sure how long all that will take

arco
...there is a possibility that SPX 500 *956 was a temporary top, motivating the market to test the March low, but it is too early to make this call right now; however:.......................................... ..

Kind Regards

Disagree Guys... My post possibly should'nt be on the Forex site but...

Your figures don't make long term sense.

Using short to medium indicators relating to short to medium time periods charts, you are at risk of GIGO (garbage in garbage out).
A bit llike watching TV with the sides of the screen reduced...you can miss so much and not know about it.

This simple chart below shows you where Hoop's thinking comes from and this may help understand what happens when the sides of the screen is reduced and the bigger picture is missing.

Misreading a chart is a common error especially when all the facts aren't on the chart Example...Below is a 30 year chart (long enough you think??;))

What do you see???

Chart isshowing an uptrend ending with a double top...without much thinking you can say.. OK!.. long time period chart...big long bull market that ended with the 810 (not drawn in) breached ..looks all downhill from here bring out the megaphone and yell... "the end of the world is near!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"


Looking at that 30year S&P500 chart again...and apply a different thinking strategy..This time think much more long term more than 30 years and say is there a bigger picture????
The answer is "yes"

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/spx_in02jan80_to_26jun10.png

A...Chart doesn't show the complete picture.. There isn't a long Bull market cycle that has just been broken (810) ...its a chart illusion That long bull market cycle actually ended in year 2000. See Secular cycles (80 year)chart
B...Apply common sense..Indexes reflect market growth rates (associated (correlated) with global population increases) so sudden drops to the depths of 200 150 etc can only happen under a Global Disaster scenario such as killing about 50% of the worlds population or huge sudden destruction of the business market trade systems..(asteroid hitting earth?).
Index of 500 would equal the great depression of 1933 (see coppock chart)
C...The ultra long and very reliable (for long term investors) Coppock indicator shows up GIGO charting fallacies (see the above Chart) and tells a truer picture of what is really happening (because the Coppock indicator is using information from an earlier period of the chart you can't see.
Note: Good News!!!The Coppock indicator has just recently begun to rise from an abnormally low level even by Bear market cycle period standards. The last time the Coppock was this low was in 1933.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/coppock-dec-1921-to-may-2009.png

See article (charts included) (http://www.highgrowthstock.com/IanBlog/?p=910)

One has to ask themselves could this indicator turn around and go down too even deeper lows Note: it would take may months to turn a coppock trend around again and head lower and in that period of time the trend of the index analysed would have to be in continuous decline. So your answer would be that is only remotely possible




OK ...I have mentioned that the long term (secular) bull market cycle (1985-2000) finished in 2000...so we are now in the middle of a long term (secular) bear cycle...OK.. so what would you normally expect to happen in this long (secular)bear market period???

See the 80 year DOW chart below

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/dji80yearchart10032009.png

The secular bear market cycles (red) characteristically are long term of more than 10 years they have flat bottoms and flat tops....ahh haaa you say referring to that 1929-33 Bear... yes it was an unusual cycle and if the index was another more historical base (remember reduce screen!!!) going back to the 1600's even that 1929-42 era would be seen as uncharacteristic ...so a more than a 1 in a 100 year happening....(maybe 1 in 400 year is closer to reality)


What I am trying to point out is the fact that while 500 on the S&P500 is possible there is a much greater chance that it won't happen

[dumbass]

one has to ask themselves could this indicator turn around and go down too even deeper lows Note: it would take may months to turn a coppock trend around again and head lower and in that period of time the trend of the index analysed would have to be in continuous decline. So your answer would be that is only remotely possible


hi hoop im not really sure what your saying but a big hole in your logic is that an indicator will diverge from price. djia may fallen massively from here without a new low reading on indicator.
As you can see in your own example the djia posted new high after new high and right up to all time high yet the indicator was not printing new highs.in fact the high indicator reading was posted late 1970 so seems like coppick reading and price reading are some what a poor correlation.

In fact id go as far as to say GIGO.

[winner69]

hi hoop im not really sure what your saying but a big hole in your logic is that an indicator will diverge from price. djia may fallen massively from here without a new low reading on indicator.
As you can see in your own example the djia posted new high after new high and right up to all time high yet the indicator was not printing new highs.in fact the high indicator reading was posted late 1970 so seems like coppick reading and price reading are some what a poor correlation.

In fact id go as far as to say GIGO.

Coppock is only intended to signal when a rally has been established (or times to buy for long term investors) and doesb't mean very much in rising markets. Also it is calculated on monthly timeframes so not entirely designed to tell you what mught happen tomorrow.

Hoops pictures are not that clear ... the Coppock has actually turned upwards .... ever so slightly

Learnt something today .... why si 11 and 14 month changes the basis of Coppocks Indicator ..... because thats how long people mourn for ..... seems as good as reason for any.

From wikipedia

Coppock, the founder of Trendex Research in San Antonio, Texas[2], was an economist. He had been asked by the Episcopal Church to identify buying opportunities for long-term investors. He thought market downturns were like bereavements and required a period of mourning. He asked the church bishops how long that normally took for people, their answer was 11 to 14 months and so he used those periods in his calculation.[3]

[dumbass]

so its really a very low sensitivity momentum indicator that has taken a rally of 45 % to give a slight uptick.
hhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmm!

[arco]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/spx_in02jan80_to_26jun10.png


What I am trying to point out is the fact that while 500 on the S&P500 is possible there is a much greater chance that it won't happen

The whole move from low to high is 1-16 roughly.

So take Fib 61.8 of 15 and that = target 573.

The pattern is slightly similar to a Gartley, so maybe its a possibility.

arco

[dumbass]

Market corrections are obviously a normal response to a bull market wave,the depth of the bear market correction depends upon the degree of the bull market it is correcting.
In our present situation this bear market is correcting the Supercycle bull market from 1932-2007.
At best a retest of the Mar 09 low (SPX 667) in the months ahead, at worse SPX 400.
Historically, US bear markets of this degree have taken between 23 months and 60 months to unfold. It took only 17 months for the bear market to hit the Mar 09 low.

[fungus pudding]

"A good day is one where you learn something that you'll use for the rest of your life. That's why bright kids are always so happy - every day is a good day.",


Big big big mistake to assume that bright kids are always happy. Just like bright adults, they are just as susceptible to serious depression etc.

[ananda77]

The Outlook is Not Up, But Very Widely Sideways
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

"Valuation Update: We estimate that the S&P 500 is currently priced to deliver total returns over the next decade in the range of 6.5-9.0%, centered at an expected total return of about 7.8% annually. Stocks are modestly overvalued here, except on metrics that assume a permanent recovery to 2007's record profit margins (which were about 50% above the historical norm)."

"unfortunately, even at current prices, the S&P 500 is near 16 times normalized earnings."

"S&P 500 would have to drop by about 60% to match the best valuations that we've seen during the past 40 years. Investors shouldn't kid themselves that stocks are cheap – in the sense of being priced to deliver outstanding long-term returns – just because we've observed a wicked decline. We're not even close."

"It is a very hard sell to expect a sustained recovery in debt-financed gross investment in an economy under strong deleveraging pressure. That's particularly true since the U.S. itself has not financed a penny of the growth in U.S. gross domestic investment in more than a decade – all of the growth has been financed by foreign capital inflows via a massive current account deficit."
http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc090615.htm

Kind Regards

[peat]

freebie from EWI is giving some info about their count... this is on the Euro Stock indices but remains relevant

[dumbass]

So they reckon a three of a three which should mean a pretty violent down leg.
i think at the present time it does look like the market is going to go lower but it will be the nature of the move that will determine the correct count.

If its an agressive motive move lower then C wave is underway.(GREEN)

If its a messy overlapping move then it could mean the market will go higher as B wave moves up.(RED)

still reckon its a short at present moment and will make money finding out either way.

judgement day next month or so!


http://iforce.co.nz/i/c0m4oub3.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

[Mick100]

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2009/0619.html

[Dr_Who]

I am actually bullish on the market in the med to long term.

The market over sold the market and was factoring a depression, the worst case scenario and the bounce was just a response to the data coming out stating that we are in fact bottoming out and not anywhere near a depression.

[peat]

30 minute candles , using Heiken-Ashi. with two competing patterns.

[Dr_Who]

A sea of red in Europe market.

The Dow may be down overnight.

[dragonz]

A sea of red in Europe market.

The Dow may be down overnight.

Your right Dr. Shares, commodity prices and oil plunged overnight after a very grim World Bank forecast .

Im a bit annoyed that I hadnt set up a margin account I can short yet. Will be caos in the 1st hour of trading but a great day for trading.

Im going fishing until 4 oclock and will look at the market then.

[peat]

Gann Global update - issued on Saturday , and hence has activated

[dumbass]

thanks peat for the info coming through on email , love it!

sp500 has completed a 5 wave move and a correction is unfolding which could well be the start of major C wave.
still bearish big picture with bullish sentiment reaching levels where we could be close to a big move lower.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/kakfqf3i.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=kakfqf3i.jpg)

[dumbass]

I still think this is a bear market rally which has just completed or is close to doing so.
currently short on sp 500 from 1030 , with stop moved to 1027.
here is a volume analysis which confirms my thinking that this is a bear market rally.
every leg down of this bear market has been on increasing volume and every rally has been on diminishing volume and the latest rally is no different.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/cpiqqgl0.png (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=cpiqqgl0.png)

[peat]

i agree with Ananda77 in the other thread on Dow/SP500 that 1070 is now the critical area.

[Dr_Who]

Peat, are you saying the market is due for a correction?

Seriously, I cant read charts very well, they all look like Japanese to me. :eek:

[peat]

probably one soon ??
but a breakthrough 1070 on th SP500 puts it on hold as that is a resistance area imo

[dumbass]

nice elliot count evolving on hourlies.

There is by the looks of things a completed third wave down which may correct from here in a fourth wave before moving lower to complete first intermediate wave of this major C wave.
42 + points from double position.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/ijggmgzl.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=ijggmgzl.jpg)

[peat]

there was indeed a bit of “fright” in traders, as we approach the spooky
weekend :eek:

nice quote

[dumbass]

this is the example i was talking about peat compared to my chart.
sloppy technical work from the so called experts.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/ex2shi1g.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=ex2shi1g.jpg)


http://iforce.co.nz/i/izu2gdk1.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=izu2gdk1.jpg)



anyway sell your house and short the sp 500

[arco]

Also put this on the S&P thread

Looks like 3 drives to a top, or H&S pattern forming

http://i35.tinypic.com/281r18x.gif

[dumbass]

arco , there is a h1 open market gap at 1084, if it gets that far.

[dumbass]

patiently waited for this pattern to unfold and if that was indeed the end of wave B then its down hill all the way to retest the bear market lows. GULP !

ridiculous as it may seem, on no particular news in a very bullish enviroment but thats what bear markets feed on .

and the USD will continue to rally , ? its a strange world

http://iforce.co.nz/i/bpc5x1w4.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=bpc5x1w4.jpg)

[dumbass]

Hi peat , you got any targets for what looks like the third wave kicking off.

That second wave was a shallow retracement which seems very bearish as you can see

from the chart very short.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/5zd5ikfc.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=5zd5ikfc.jpg)

[peat]

happening a bit quicker than I expected eh DA!

EWI say
A break of 10,172.20, the top of wave i of (c) of ii (circle), would confirm that wave ii (circle) was already over and the next leg down was starting (1086.75 in the S&P).

so that's already happened.....

1020 looks pretty likely based on either

1/ if wave 1 was (back to S+P numbers) 1150 - 1070 = 80 and wave 3 started at 1103 , it is likely to be larger than wave 1 , so it should extend to at least 1023, or

2/ 161 fib extension of 1150 > 1070 = 1019.8

But we shouldnt forget that being a 3rd its quite likely to go to the 261% extension which is 938.
930-950 area is an obvious place for some potential support as well being where there was congestion and resistance in May/June 2009.




.

[dumbass]

my only concern is that wave 2 was so short that it wasn't a wave 2, and therefore there is a significant retracement to still happen.
stops at 1105 (top of wave 2 ?) which hopefully wont get hit as im uber short.

[peat]

yes thats why I reduced to %100 short as it means I can handle any bounce even up to previous highs. if it gets back up to anywhere near mid 1100's I will go %200 short again.

[dumbass]

what you doing up so late , you going to have a go at NFP's.
don't tell arco but i love trading the big news days.

[peat]

heheh , I generally crash before they happen (as I did last night) but if I can keep my eyes open sometimes I watch the bouncing...., I rarely trade them specifically as such tho.

so it doesnt look like too much happened on this occasion

[dumbass]

well............., closed all shorts between 1050 - 1060

looks like maybe a reversal on the go , twezzer bottom on 4h and should be a big hammer on dailys as has bounced off lower channel line.

7 short positions 360 POINTS TOTAL

i think i might be jumping early but the stress levels were getting too high and heck this could only be intermediate wave 1.

needed to lock in and hopefully will get a good retracement for another go.

totally had enough and want to throw the computer in the swimming pool.

good luck with your shorts and thanks for the help , really appreciate it.

[Dr_Who]

I like reading you guys posts, but most times I dont understand what you are on about LOL

[peat]

overdoing the leverage weakens your position in the face of adversity , like I say I think one has to be able to stand up to a significant retracement at some stage

I got another trade in and out for 10 this morning so happy with that

the daily close looks like a hammer so it found some support and there is rsi divergence on that new low now too

and yeh appreciate your comments Doctor , even though traders have to accept getting it wrong sometimes its easy not to post for fear of shame .

[dumbass]

the markets maybe at a critical juncture, tonight could be the night to decide direction for a while,well not neccessarily tonight but you get my drift.

forex markets locked down awaiting next move.

a sniff of bearish sentiment on sp 500

bearish wedge and evening star on 4h but still not completely conclusive. http://iforce.co.nz/i/bor0b2ev.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=bor0b2ev.jpg)

[dumbass]

hi peat , im with you looks like it wants to go higher.

i was watching a potential 'shampoo' on h4 but that was blown out the water, 1061 pivot looks strong.so i am taking the failed head and shoulders as a continuation pattern with a channel line break to boot.

difficult counting corrections but the main thing is it looks like a correction, happy to be out at the moment.

1090 next pivot with a gartley maybe aroung 78.6 , pretty boring stuff at present.
states closed on monday as well.
http://iforce.co.nz/i/jwzlsdx3.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=jwzlsdx3.jpg)

[dumbass]

just rereading this thread to get bear market conditioning , shame the charts have gone.
i reckon we did ok hoop in navigating the last bear market .

[Hoop]

just rereading this thread to get bear market conditioning , shame the charts have gone.
i reckon we did ok hoop in navigating the last bear market .

Dumbass I guess we may have to start it up again..we had good technical debates last time which were very informative..yes pity about the missing charts.

Yep I did OK...I feel very chuffed about getting through the last Bear market with a +3% capital gain in my portfolio thanks alot to Pike River Coal..Using the Bear Market strategies of safe havens and buy and selling in the sucker rallies "sort of" worked but I must admit it was a little nerve racking.
However there were two downsides
1 If I stayed cashed up I would probably gained more than +3% probably 8% but at the time banks.. trading accounts... and other financial institutions looked an unsafe place to keep large amounts of cash.
2 I had to pay IRD in capital gains.

such is life..eh?

[dumbass]

I am going to post my results on a trial trading sysytem for the dow. The sysytem will generate buy and sell signals that will be placed very near the end of day close

on the dow ( 10 am nzt ). This is the most manageable way to trade the dow without having to stay up late to place trades. i will not play the futures market but the cash market

i anticipate a stop loss of about 100 dow points.

To add a bit of spice to leverage profit and loss, i will trade puts and calls or UDOW pro shares.

UDOW are index tracking shares with a 300 % gearing, therefore dow goes up 4 % udow up 12 %

im expecting trades to run from a day to a few days . i will post all trades in real time before the event to make sure there is no funny business.

i will trade it rather than demo it as i always need a bit of skin in the game to keep it real.

i would not recommend anyone following it in any way shape or form but look on it as pure entertainment value and you may subjct me to public riducule if it tanks.

[dumbass]

i have a got a buy signal at close today , i will enter long just as market closes and will detail entry and stop loss.

[roddy]

Sounds like Fun DA,will look forward to your posts, is your trading system based around Elliot wave?
is it called ProShares UltraPro Dow30 (UDOW)

[Hoop]

i have a got a buy signal at close today , i will enter long just as market closes and will detail entry and stop loss.

Hi Dumbass...i'm with Roddy here in looking forward to your posts.

There's been a strong inflow of money into the DOW these last 6 weeks and a good rise on the index, however the momentum seems to be weakening these last couple of days so that buy signal you got Dumbass will be interesting and a good test of that trading system ..eh.

[Entrep]

looking forward to it dumbass

[dumbass]

yes its purely a mathematical based model , no charts. its very contrarian philosphy requiring ballsy trades off large moves.

the key is to be in early , so looking to enter on a market close to get either a gap open or possibly a big intra day reversal .

im expecting the market to close higher than today and will ride the long trade until a minor sell is generated to close position or a major sell will generate a reverse position. its really for trading against time zones where trades will tend to be end of day.

long from 116.71 and gains\losses will be three times the dow move.

yes roddy thats udow but if it works i will trade puts and calls as the margin requirements are high for this etf.

[drillfix]

Hi DA,

What actual instrument are you trading here? the Mini SP500 as in ES ???

I used to trade ES and CL, but since then resorted back to Aus stocks, although may look at dong some more US based trading though the hours screwed me up previously so I guess it depends.

Can you share with us, are you doing well from those markets?

[dumbass]

I am going to post my results on a trial trading sysytem for the dow. The sysytem will generate buy and sell signals that will be placed very near the end of day close

on the dow ( 10 am nzt ). This is the most manageable way to trade the dow without having to stay up late to place trades. i will not play the futures market but the cash market

i anticipate a stop loss of about 100 dow points.

To add a bit of spice to leverage profit and loss, i will trade puts and calls or UDOW pro shares.

UDOW are index tracking shares with a 300 % gearing, therefore dow goes up 4 % udow up 12 %

im expecting trades to run from a day to a few days . i will post all trades in real time before the event to make sure there is no funny business.

i will trade it rather than demo it as i always need a bit of skin in the game to keep it real.

i would not recommend anyone following it in any way shape or form but look on it as pure entertainment value and you may subjct me to public riducule if it tanks.

hi drilly ,the above post may help, its a geared CFD. i normal trade sp 500 cfd but i wanted to bring some big leverage into this black box system , really should be playing options.

im not sure how its going as its my first trade,i have been following it for a while and results have been good but now i have some money riding on it,things changefrom demo trading.

[drillfix]

Ahh forgot about CFD's.

I look forward to seeing what the results are as I used to read many trader diaries over on another forum called Big Mikes Traders forum. Joined that site a while back and there are huge resources and a good introduction for those for Futures, Commondities etc etc for both Automated and Discretionary trading.

A few other programs I would recommend for that sort of environment would be Ninja Trader, MultiCharts and X Trader by TT.

There is also great support for automated trading in both NT and MC which if you use custom made (or paid) scripts, then y9u may want to view those platforms also.

Sorry for going off track but always interested in seeing others do different things.

Again, I look forward to the results of your efforts and wish to say thanks for sharing :)

[dumbass]

no new signal generated therefore i will stay long.

trade 1 : entry 1.1671 open status long + 1.8 %

[roddy]

Hi DA, Well done on your first trade being profitable so far ! Also like to say
that your trading as a whole is very transparent by that i mean you post beforehand or as you are trading which takes a lot of courage being open to public scrutiny and putting it out there
cheers
roddy

[dumbass]

thanks rod , very generous of you to say that.

i rather selfishly use the forum as a trading journal and it allows me to have a quick peep at my charts if im following on iphone / ipad.

thanks

[Hoop]

Dumbass ????
Did that system throw you out of the DOW in time??

[dumbass]

new signal generated
trade 1 : entry 1.1671 closed stop out 1.1680 breakeven 0 %

TRADE 2 : ENTRY TODAY 1.0970 OPEN STATUS LONG

[dumbass]

trade 1 : entry 1.1671 closed stop out 1.1680 breakeven 0 %
trade 2 : entry 1.0960 closed stop out 1.0670 loss -2.64 %