DML - Discovery Metals Ltd

[crisstoff]

There doesnt seem to be a thread for this company so I will endeavour to briefly outline DML.

DML - Discovery Metals Limited

SP - 48c
No. of shares - 128m
Market Capitalisation - A$62m
Cash - A$10.5m
Website - www.discoverymetals.com.au

Has 2 projects in Botswanna - Dikoloti Nickel Project and the Maun Copper Project. Maun is the main focus.


Maun Copper Project.

7 licences covering 6,435sq.km within the Kalahari Copper Belt which is an extension to the Zambian Copper Belt, but has not seen the same level of exploration. This area has had exploration in the 80s and 90s, and had some resource estimates which are non-JORC.

Since gaining the licences in October 2005, DML have since got a JORC Resource Estimate of 46.1mt @ 1.4%Cu equivalent. They have an overall target of 100mt @ 1-2% and it looks likely they wll reach this target.

This is made up of various prospects - Zeta, NE Zeta, Plutus, Petra. They are also carrying out soil sampling on possible new targets including Quirinus which recently had 3 holes drilled over 1.5km - they all struck Cu-Ag mineralisation.

Zeta has a high grade zone which is being infill drilled now and is providing better grades than were expected - 8m @ 3.1% Cu, 17m @ 1.6% Cu as some examples.This hi-grade zone which is open pit could at the commencement of mining allow for a rapid payback. Most of the mineraliastion is open at depth, but DML is mostly drilling at this stage to 120m to allow for open pit operations, which the possibilty of underground later, depending on the Copper price.

Metallurgical tests have initially shown an 95% recovery of Copper and 80% for Silver.

A Prefeasibilty Study is due mid 2008 and they plan on a BFS for the end of 2008.


Dikoloti Nickel Project

Inferred JORC Resource - 4.1mt @ 0.7% Ni, 0.5% Cu and 1.2g/t PGE

Have recently found that through using the GEOLEACH process they could get 74% recovery after 160 days. Currently DML are considering the next step.


Recently Taurus Fund Management have been buying and presently hold 7.5%. The Chairman of DML - Gordan Galt is also a Director of Taurus, so this is positive for the future of DML.


- Currently they are infill drilling Zeta with an updated resource estiame due soon.
- Planning on diamond drilling Quirinus prospect first half 2008.
- Infill drilling NE Zeta first half 2008.
- Drilling SW area of Plutus, which is still open along strike.

Hopefully this gives a brief outline, but as usuall DYOR.

[crisstoff]

I forgot to add this link to a Report by Fox Davies who have a target of A$1.45.

http://www.fox-davies.com/Reports/2008/DiscoveryMetalsFlashNote17January2007.pdf

Any comments would be appreciated .

[OldRider]

Cristoff:
I hold a few of these, bought just over a year ago, they have doubled in price over this period.

Round that time I was looking for an alternative to AVM, which I had held for some years, and thought was at a time to reduce. A chunk of the funds realised went into DML.

It would be more than good if DML is able to replicate the growth AVM achieved.

I presume you have bought some as well ?.

[crisstoff]

Sorry Oldrider, not up on the play with AVM, so cant really compare.

Yes I do own some (my largest holding) and have been waiting for further dips to buy more. However there seems to be a good base around 45 - 48c.

After some emails with the MD and going back through all there old announcements regarding the Maun Project, I consider this undervalued and very well managed. There is a steady flow of news and they seem understate future targets - both of these points are hard to find in many companies. At present they are drilling and getting some of the best results yet.

All with a market capitilisation under $70m.

I would like to think they will double again this year and find it hard to see any reasons why it wont. DYOR

[crisstoff]

I posted this on another site. It shows the potential in DML.


I am trying to place some value on DML. This is one easy system I have roughly worked out.

Resource - 46.1Mt @ 1.3%Cu = 600,000t Cu

Using a conservative Copper price of $2.00lb = $4,400t.

600,000t x $4,400 = $2,640,000,000.

Using a value of only 5% = $132,000,000.

At a SP of 48cents the market capitilisation = $62M

Therefore just using this simple and somewhat crude valuing system the SP has plenty of room to move, if fact to get to $132M it needs to go to $1.03.

I have noted on plenty of other threads the most common valuation is to use 10%, but as it is only an inferred resource at this stage I used 5%. However with the infill drilling at Zeta at the moment and further drilling there is plenty to come yet.

Please correct me if I have done anything incorrectly.
DYOR

[crisstoff]

This is the latest Fox Davies report as posted on another forum. Note that it does not take into account the updated Resource that is due this month or Quirinus.


Sector: Mining
Location: Botswana
Date: 4 April 2008
Ticker/ Exch: DML/ASX, DME/AIM
Discovery Metals BUY, A$1.96/£0.92
Maintain Buy target price increased to £0.92
Event
• Fox-Davies has changed its copper price forecasts. These are based on
the 63 month forward copper curve and then the rate of decline is
maintained until the long term copper price is reached.
• The forward curve is currently significantly higher than when we last
reviewed it three months ago, and this is the reason for the significant
increase in the target price.
• We have also delayed the anticipated start-up date until early 2011, a
delay of approximately nine months. We believe this is a much more
realistic scenario.
• No allowance for the latest drilling results at Quirinus has been made in
the model.
• No assay results are available for Quirinus, but the known strike length has
been increased from 1,50m to 3,300m. With the prospect located only
15km from the current mineral resources at Zeta, Plutus and Petra in
north-west Botswana. With a processing plant expected to be build to
treat ore from these three resources, even modest grades or ore at
Quirinus could be economic.
Implication
The excellent news flow for Discovery Metals continues. The latest drill results
where not commented upon, as we are awaiting the new ore reserve and resource
figures which are due out in April 2008.
Comment
We have made no changes to our model on the back of the latest results,
preferring to wait for the forthcoming half yearly financials and also the release of
the pre-feasibility study. An updated Zeta mineral resource incorporating these
latest drill results is scheduled for completion later in 2008.
Recommendation
We maintain our buy recommendation with an unchanged target price of A$1.96,
(£0.92)/share.
Company Statistics
Share Price (A$) 0.40
Shares Outstanding (M) 129.9
Warrants and Options (M) 9.2
Fully Diluted Shares (M) 139.1
Average Daily Turnover (A$ ‘000) 50
Market Capitalisation (A$M) 52.0
Net Debt/(Cash) (A$M) (8.9)
Enterprise Value (A$M) 43.1
52-week High (A$) 0.72
52-week Low (A$) 0.23
Discovery Metals Recommendation Summary
Date Recommendation Target Price
Jun 29, 2007 BUY A$0.64/ £0.27
Nov 13, 2007 Unchanged A$0.64/ £0.27
Dec 10, 2007 BUY A$1.45/ £0.63
Jan 17, 2008 Unchanged A$1.45/ £0.63
Feb 5, 2008 Unchanged A$1.45/ £0.63
Feb 28, 2008 Unchanged A$1.45/ £0.63
Apr 4, 2008 Upgrade target price A$1.96/ £0.92
www.fdcap.com

[Joshuatree]

Absolutely hammered over the stuffed up hostile takeover that didnt come off. Commisioning operation still, producing copper. 56.5c. Mkt cap $316 million

[DJP]

Hammered indeed! Already jumped back up 11%

I topped up yesterday, it may be a slow rise back up to pre takeover high but should be hovering around $1.00 short term.

[Bobcat.]

I've just come in on DML now that their Managing Director / CEO Brad Sampson and Director Niall Lenahan have both resigned (pushed?). That follows Gregory Seeto (Coy Secretary)'s resignation last month. Trading Halt was lifted and trading began at 7.4c. It eased back to 6.5 before holding to now trade at 6.7 (as I write this). Debt situation is not great but looks managable.

It's company recapitalisation included issuing to Bluepont :
- 73m shares at 12c ($8.8m)
- $100m convertabile Bonds paid at 5% p.a. and convertible to shares at 15c

This reduces debt by $50m and provides working capital.

The remaining $100m in debt has had its terms extended (now to be paid from March 2016 through to Dec 2017).

Also, A SPP has been announced whereby shareholders can purchase more shares at 12c per share.

All of the above will IMHO provide upward pressure on the share price...beginning this week.

Cash reserves of $21m with $43m cash outflows expected this quarter (75% for production costs), offset by forecasted quarterly sales of $32m...manageable.

Hedging looks good at $4 per pound.

============================

Closed at 6.4. If it drops to 6c, I'll be buying some more. This stock is now in recovery.

BC

[Bobcat.]

7c and climbing - up about 9% today.

Anybody else come in on this one?

[Bobcat.]

No responses to my two posts above...

Your loss folks - up another 9% today. Ride this one with me - its turnaround has just been confirmed technically by a breakthrough 7cps yesterday and punching through 7.4c today. Doesn't look to be much resistance now until 9c (weak) then 10c, by which time it will have risen 50% from last Friday's sp.

Fundamental improvement is described in my post above, which I'm sorry -- clearly wasn't persuasive enough to get you interested earlier. It traded as low as 6.4c last week and IMHO will rise to test 10c sometime this month, perhaps as early as later this week. Yes, this one's a climber.

BC

[silu]

I'm following and showing interest. However, looking for a Chairperson & CEO and additional non-executive directors seems like a big task. Wondering what moves share price except speculation?

[Bobcat.]

Not speculation but satisfaction...that the leadership that has brought this company to its knees is now gone. Yes, an emotional reaction but valid nonetheless. Also, one or two analyst firms are now more bullish on its debt being manageable and future prospects improving. Psychologically, there's a growing belief that the bad news is behind it...which lifts the sp.

[silu]

I don't like to admit to my own stupidity but I put in a, what I thought, cheeky bid at 6.9 cents and went into a meeting. Came out at 5 and realised that I got some. But hey, maybe the stupid decision will turn out to be very profitable indeed.

I will do closer research on numbers but as I don't know the mining sector at all. So for me the major questions are. Who is driving the search for the new board members? Are they trustworthy, driven characters? If you have any info that would be appreciated. But I should read up on the sector anyway.

[Bobcat.]

I will do closer research on numbers but as I don't know the mining sector at all. ... If you have any info that would be appreciated. But I should read up on the sector anyway.

Silu, to help with your research, here's some recently encouraging news on the demand for copper.
http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-11-12/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets-November-12.html

No guarantees of course, but I do think you'll find your investment in this stock at 6.9c yesterday will be well rewarded, even before they recruit new senior management.

Discl: Holding since last week.

[silu]

Huh? What's happening? Up nearly 20% today?

[Bobcat.]

You and I bought into it, remember?

This one's a turnaround story with a steep hill to climb to get anywhere near it's former glory...but there's definitely money to made as a short term trade.

Sitting on my hands, waiting for at least three days before selling. My target's 10c but let's see what this week brings.

What's your selling strategy, Silu? ...I'm assuming you have one.

BC

[silu]

Sell half when it doubles and let the free shares soar even higher ;)

[Bobcat.]

DML climbing nicely today - has already traded above yesterday's high of 8.4c - not bad for a precious metal producer as the price of copper is currently falling! There's some gusto in this stock at the mo'. I've shifted my target sell to 11c (historical resistance) anticipating a spike to hit as early as sometime next week if this momentum holds.

Edit: ...and as soon as the AGM presentation is published, the share price's upward momentum is cut short! Now trading at last week's prices. Volatile. General trend has reversed however, and I expect it to settle into an upward trend before end of month. Trading to this.

BC

[Bobcat.]

Straight after the AGM, a seller (or two?) dumped a bundle and looks to be going head to head with buyers in the mid-6c range. A good sign that the buyers are prevailing is the higher high and higher low today (7.1.c against 7c yesterday, and 6.7c against 6.2 yesterday.

I read the AGM presentation and saw nothing unfavourable that wasn't released prior to the AGM. Perhaps the interim snr management didn't impress a major shareholder (? - conjecture only). Either way, I can see this one gradually climb back up the slope from here and then spike once new heads are on board and deliver a coherent faith-building message.

That of course will be next year. Meanwhile I'm holding.

[silu]

UBS taking a 5.01% stake.

[silu]

Miners do my head in. I can't really get my head around it. It seems that they have copper, lots of it, but they would lose cash mining it? I have hardly anything invested in DML but thinking of taking it all out at a loss.

[Bobcat.]

Miners do my head in. I can't really get my head around it. It seems that they have copper, lots of it, but they would lose cash mining it? I have hardly anything invested in DML but thinking of taking it all out at a loss.

Think twice about this, Silu. Precious metal diggers (incl copper) are out of favour at the mo' but I am seeing the low 5c range on this stock as an opportunity to buy, not to sell. In hindsight (a wonderful thing), the bullish run ahead of its AGM was always going to peter out -- it's not unusual for stock prices to drop post-AGM. The 20th of Nov would've been a good time to take profit.

Discl: I have a bid in at 5.1c to buy more. The way I read it, the bad news is behind this company. A senior mgmt appointment is all it will take to lift this higher. Market price of copper is forecasted to go higher in 2014.

If the sp gets to 5.1 and you still want to sell then I'd be happy to buy them from you.

BC

[Bobcat.]

Whoops, didn't anticipate that announcement.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131219/pdf/42lqk658zj774r.pdf

I got caught out with a bid at 5.1c. I normally pull them each night but didn't in this case. Also, busted my own rule not to average down unless FULLY persuaded a stock's been oversold and have ascertained cash backing, etc to prove it...and that wasn't the case here.

Hoping negotiations go well with Blumont with its recapitalisation. Without it, the company could struggle, the share price will take a while to recover, and I'll meanwhile be out of pocket - dang it.

Tempted to come back in around 4c... but nah, that could be throwing more good money after bad -- sitting on my hands with this one.

BC

[Daytr]

Yeah these guys could be in trouble I hate to say. I hope for you guys sake I am wrong.

[silu]

I go bush for a bit and all hell breaks lose?

[silu]

6.15 cents at the moment. I'm sure Bobcat knew all along ;)

[Bobcat.]

Yeah these guys could be in trouble I hate to say. I hope for you guys sake I am wrong.

Looks like these drilling results have been well received and Blumont is not reneging - just looking for more favourable terms given the share price at the mo' (well below the 15c mentioned in the agreement). Given the size of its spike today (up 80% since noon Friday), this one HAS to have some legs. The sp may be 15c by year-end at this rate.

I'm leaving some profit for others, with a selling strategy that has me sell half at 8c and waiting until the Blupont agreement is renegotiated before buying any more.

[silu]

Hi Bobcat!

How are you viewing the latest quarterly report and cost cutting announcements? Looks like they are in complete mercy of the lenders. On Hotcopper they are hoping for conservative takeover targets of 12c (with which I would be more than happy with).

TIA.

[Bobcat.]

There is clearly a sellers' overhang until such a time that the arrangement with Blumont is renegotiated and published. Sometime this month I'm expecting.

Technically, support at 4.5c was confirmed last week, and this week at 4.7c. The RSI has touched 30, and we are starting to see again a lift in trading volume (9.4m today).

I'm still holding (albeit at a paper loss). But yes, you're right - it's a key success factor that lenders continue to demonstrate support for this company.

BC

[silu]

Thanks BC.

This may be of interest to both of us or whoever lurks here:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article44062.html

excerpt:
TMR: Which copper companies do you like?

AVD: I like Nevsun Resources Ltd. (NSU:TSX; NSU:NYSE.MKT) quite a lot. It has historically been a gold company in Eritrea and has just gotten into the copper-heavy area of its deposit. Many people aren't fond of Eritrea, but anyone who's gone there knows that it's a much safer jurisdiction—at least where the Nevsun mine is—than is popularly believed. The company is paying a 4% dividend, and it has tons of free cash flow. In this market, that's a really nice thing.

Central Asia Metals Plc (CAML:LSE) is interesting as well. Its Kounrad waste-retrieval facility in Kazakhstan is producing quite profitably. And it has just paid $3.2M to buy half of Copper Bay Ltd. in Chile (with an option to acquire up to 75%). Coppers Bay's Chañaral Bay project has a resource of 288 Mt copper. I think Central Asia Metals could do quite well.

TMR: Any others?

AVD: I generally like Discovery Metals Ltd. (DML:ASX) and its Boseto project in Botswana.

TMR: Botswana is rated quite highly in Africa.

AVD: Deservedly so. It is like the Switzerland of Africa. It has a small, relatively peaceful population that supports development. Anyone I know who's ever worked in Botswana thinks it's heaven compared to most of the rest of Africa.

[Daytr]

I like base metals generally, but copper I'm not sure will perform that well to be honest. It has done very well through the last few years to maintain a very good price. A lot of that has had to do with Chinese consumption which has been underpinned by a massive upgrade of the electricity grid. This program of work I believe is coming to an end. If the world economy continues to improve copper demand will increase for sure, however it is already known that supply is going to increase substantially over the next few years. So perhaps copper goes higher, but I can't see that it will gain that much. I would be more favorable to zinc & lead that are closer to their respective costs of production. Just my 2c.

[Daytr]

Just as follow up, see below. I expect this surplus to grow as new mine production & expansions keep coming on stream.

WBMS: Copper Market Records Surplus In January To November 2013 WBMS
The copper market recorded a surplus of 375 kt in January to November 2013 which follows a surplus of 244 kt in the whole of 2012. Reported stocks fell by 134 kt during November and ended the month 88 kt lower than at the end of 2012. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes, particularly in the Chinese government stockpile
World mine production in January to November 2013 was 16.66 million tonnes which was 7.36 per cent higher than in the same period in 2012. Global refined production rose to 19.66 million tonnes up 6.4 per cent compared with the previous year with a significant increase recorded in China (up 975 kt) more than compensating for the 130 kt fall in Chilean output and a 77 kt drop in Indian production.
Global consumption for January to November 2013 was 19285 kt and the comparable figure for the first eleven months of 2012 was 18489 kt. Chinese apparent consumption in January to November 2013 rose by 845 kt to 8919 kt which represented over 46 per cent of global demand. EU27 demand was, at 2912 kt, 2.5 per cent above the January to November 2012 total.
In November 2013, refined copper production was 1888.1 kt and consumption was 1931.5 kt.

[Bobcat.]

DML lifting to 4.5c today. This is a key resistance level which if broken may indicate a trend reversal. There may of course be something in the wind to do with their renegotiations with Blumont re recapitalisation.

Good news I'm hoping.

Still holding.

[Bobcat.]

I bought DML at its 2.8c closing price yesterday. Felt prompted to do so given a pending announcement and very low price.

Worse case is their financial restructuring falls through and they go belly up. Unlikely IMO. More likely is some long awaited positive news. Trading to it.

[silu]

I bought DML at its 2.8c closing price yesterday. Felt prompted to do so given a pending announcement and very low price.

Worse case is their financial restructuring falls through and they go belly up. Unlikely IMO. More likely is some long awaited positive news. Trading to it.

Forever the optimist Bobcat? I sold most of them at a loss around 4.5c to get some finances in order but still have about 1k invested which I consider now gambling money.

[silu]

But nothing aside from the share price points towards voluntary administration. What do you think Bobcat?

[Bobcat.]

Now under a trading halt until early next week. We'll shall soon see.

[Bobcat.]

But nothing aside from the share price points towards voluntary administration. What do you think Bobcat?

Possibly, but if that was the case, it's unlikely they would announce a joint venture with Japan Oil, Gas and Metals Nat. Corp.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140319/pdf/42ngzgkqvy9j1n.pdf

Awaiting their announcement. I'm figuring we will see interest in this stock spark to life.

[silu]

I think you did very well with your 2.8c purchase. Quick profit ;)

[Bobcat.]

100 million new shares to be issued at 5c
Debt reduced by one third
Lenders get 500m shares plus $65m
$40m now for working capital.

Mostly positive, as far as I can see. Other's thoughts?

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140401/pdf/42nqyzs758m2ys.pdf

[Bobcat.]

Not a bad monthly report.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140508/pdf/42phs3cxzjg0lg.pdf

Time for a top up methinks. A nice rise expected by the weekend.

[silu]

Long slow road to recovery I hope.

[Bobcat.]

Up 13% today on large volume. It's a sure pivot. Trading into it.

[Daytr]

I would be very careful with this stock. I'm not trying to rub salt in any wounds etc & I wouldn't post this sort of thing on HC as it would get too much attention, however there is a reasonable chance the rug gets pulled on this & the shareholders get nothing. So its a very high risk / reward trade, the risk being you could lose all your dough. I'm not saying this will happen & I'm not sure what the odds are, but may be 60:40 or something like that, 60 being the likelihood of it staying afloat.

[Bobcat.]

Yes Daytr, I'm also wary. The due diligence is yet to be completed, and technically every time the sp has spiked over the past year, it's been driven down from next day onward. But the production report does read well -- they now seem to driving some real efficiencies into their operation, which has to be a good thing.

If the sp climbs to a higher high tomorrow I'll stay in, otherwise I'll probably sell out.

It's now up 18%.

[Bobcat.]

DML has closed up 20% on yesterday's close, with a higher high, and so I've hung onto mine - you too Silu?

This week's spike is clearly not the flash in the pan like others earlier. I suspect that with the upbeat April Boseto operations report there's now more confidence in the Montsant's due diligence giving the thumbs up to DML's recapitalisation and financial restructuring. We should know for sure on Monday...then watch this stock come back into favour.

[silu]

Yes I'm still in. The latest production report did instil some confidence in me that they can actually turn it around which should make recapitalisation so much easier. Cooper prices look to raise as well so I'm hopefully riding this all the way into the black.

[Bobcat.]

Copper has lifted over 2% overnight as a result of the Chinese Government reiterating its intended reforms of its financial sector and a strong commitment to growth. Globally, copper stocks are low. Both of these facts are good for DML.

Provided the due diligence gives the thumbs up today, DML should continue to rise nicely over the next couple of months. Bear in mind that management are expecting the rebuild of Boseto to be completed by July, and subsequently when the contracted extra generators will no longer be required. Also, the new crew's planning efforts are expected to show more results, so we can expect some significant savings and improvement in June's quarterly results and hopefully beyond.

Discl: Holding and waiting for the Debt re-profile announcement (promised today).

Update: Trading halt - the announcement is promised to be released to market by this Thursday.

[silu]

I don't know anymore what's good and what's bad news but this strikes me as a sign into the right direction.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20140519/pdf/42pptkdk479jm3.pdf

[Bobcat.]

With 10.5cps worth of debt written off by lenders, I would say so (although they do get a $20m 'incentive' later).

This is a better deal than what Montsant would have given DML and its lenders.

Market is reacting favourably - uncertainty has lifted. Voluntary administration / liquidation no longer a possibility, and given last months operating result, it looks like they will be able to trade their way out of trouble. Now all we need is the spot price of copper to continue to lift.

Holding, with a short-term (sometime in June) target of 6cps.

[silu]

Not quite at 6 cents yet Bobcat but still a nice little jump yesterday. Silver & Copper prices trending up. Management seems to turn it around albeit slowly. Definitely looking forward to the next production update.

[Bobcat.]

Copper is up but the real reason for DML's lift yesterday is IMO:

a) tax loss selling to the end of June is finished
b) resistance at 2.8c finally broke
c) long form documents for the debt re-profiling due (and an announcement imminent) - remember that they are the last condition.

I had a cheeky bid at 2.3c sitting there over the past week to buy some more averaging down (the exception that proves the rule)...but the last of the tax-loss sellers took the price down only as low as 2.4c. Never mind, onward and upward from here, and my existing holdings are now very nearly in the green. Sometime next week, I expect they will be. My strategy (subject to fundamentals or copper spot price changing) is to sell half at around 6c then ride the wave from there.

Our patience is being rewarded, Silu. Are you buying more on the way up?

[silu]

I'm a little tight for funds at the moment but if it pulls back to 3.x cents I might just add some more. Currently avg cost price sits at 5.5c so I'm pretty confident that this will be back in the black really soon. But most likely gonna wait for the details of the recapitalisation though.

[silu]

From 2.4c to 5.3c in less than 2 days. Jeepers.

[Bobcat.]

I've sold half this morning. I was surprised it spiked as high as it did today (to 6.5c!). A placid response to an asx price enquiry usually dampens a bullish run...but not yet for DML.

I may sell the rest on the third climbing day - Monday. Remember that there is a capital raising ahead of us for the underground mine they want to dig.

BC

[silu]

Will take some profit soon as well- currently sitting at 6.2c!! Can always top up if the terms of the capital raising are suitable.

[Daytr]

Its taken a year, but DML is no longer after going into administration, its now being wound up.
I hope not too many were caught up in the demise.

Cheers
Daytr

[silu]

I lost $1,500 which was money I could afford to lose. Never happy about that but portfolio rules save me from bigger losses (things I learnt over many years).