BULLISH ON SILVER ? Consider CXC

[whiteheron]

Coeur D Alene is the worlds largest publicly traded primary silver producer
It trades on the ASX under Ticker code CXC

I have been reviewing it recently and it seems to have a lot going for it, especially looking foward over the next couple of years
It is a low cost producer, its revenue coming from silver 67 % and gold 33 %

I wont go into a whole lot of detail as there is a mountain of information on Coeurs webpage
http://www.coeur.com/

At this stage I have dipped my toe in the water with an initial small purchase and will see how it goes

Although Coeur is trading at what seems to be a pretty reasonable price at present silver has been on quite a roll and is trading at recent highs (in my opinion with heaps of upside to come)

[Mick100]

holding CXC from conversion of BSG
CXC has more country risk than BSG - thats my only concern with CXC

I expect silver to go into the high 20s, maybe 30, over the next 2-3 months. Silver is usually slow to get moving during these runs in the PM's, but when it moves it goes up quickly - looks like thats beginning to happen now. Palladium has made a good move in the past couple of weeks due to the electricity shortages in south africa.

PM's is the only sector I'm bullish on over the short term.
.

[macduffy]

I'm bullish on silver too and have been watching CXC since it listed a few months ago and trying to decide what a reasonable entry price might be.
The recent market gyrations appear to have provided a suitable level so this may be the week that I take a first, small position.

[Tech Step]

Scottgold is another silver/gold exploration comapny and is based in scotland.

SGZ.

I got in on the float but exited as I wanted to be in cash as the markets have been very nasty lately.

Tech.

[Huang Chung]

Definitely going to be a minor string to their bow, but Prairie Downs seem to be deliniating a small but useful amount of silver...... the silver grade seems to be getting better with their latest drilling as well.

Small beer compared to some operations, but PDZ has a small market cap and tiny number of shares on issue as well.....

[scorp57]

This one actually really interested me. especially since there arent many things to be bullish on at the moment, and platinum gold and especially silver are about it.

will also watch closely

cheers

[whiteheron]

Huang Chung

I have had a quick look at PDZ but what I have been trying to locate is an ASX listed company with a main focus on silver that is producing at a low cost and CXC looking foward seems to meet my requirements

I have held MMN and/or MMNO up until recently but have given this company up as it is never ever able to come anywhere meeting its targets

[Huang Chung]

Sorry for butting in Whiteheron.....

[whiteheron]

Huang Chung

You were not butting in, all suggestions are welcome and yours are always worth following up on
A limited supply of money and the necessity to get a balanced portfolio often narrows down the field available for consideration at any point in time

[macduffy]

Calling whiteheron ( and anyone else! )

Do you have a current view on silver and CXC in particular?
I took a small position a few months ago but am becoming increasingly disillusioned about the silver market.
Perhaps Butler is right and the whole thing is manipulated?

:confused:

[whiteheron]

macduffy

Apologies for being so long winded in replying

I have had a long hard look at CXC over the weekend and have convinced myself that it is a very good long term hold --- it has much going for it and I am bullish silver and gold medium to long term

As for me I am continuing to hold
My cost was north of $4 and I consider that CXC is a great buy at its present cost of around $3.30

Just my opinion, I was wrong with PEM ---There are no certainties on the sharemarket that dont come with the value of hindsight

[macduffy]

Here's a bullish view on silver!

http://compareshares.com.au/zeal47.php

:)

[whiteheron]

CXC went up 11 % on the NYSE on Friday but I can find no announcement or other info to indicate why
NYSE ticker code for CXC.AX is CDE

Maybe this will become clear on Monday or Tuesday ????

Whatever it is I am not complaining, being a holder of several parcels

[shasta]

CXC went up 11 % on the NYSE on Friday but I can find no announcement or other info to indicate why
NYSE ticker code for CXC.AX is CDE

Maybe this will become clear on Monday or Tuesday ????

Whatever it is I am not complaining, being a holder of several parcels

Whiteheron

I'm interested in your views on silver, is CXC your only exposure to silver?

I have CXC & MMN on watch, & see the likes of JBMurc buying physical silver.

Just wondering whats the best leverage to silver?

Am fully expecting Gold & Silver to rally when the US reporting season "highlights" more sub prime/debt related problems...

[JBmurc]

Yeah I'm a big silver fan and as of recently have been buying- silver bullion with a target of holding 50+ kg in mind in the short term
silver is really out of wack with the rest of the PGM IMHO I can see silver again increasing more than gold % wise long term
-Also like to take a holding in CXC current prob through my CFD account once i sell my LGL position


The ratio of Gold to Oil from 2006 to present (sitting at 6 currently). The chart is showing an extreme bargain of gold relative to oil. If the ratio were to restore to the peak in 1999 of 26, today’s $130 oil price will equate to a gold price of $3380/oz




Is it becoming apparent that gold may rise to $5000 over the next several years?
*Bloomberg, by Bei Hu, June 19, 2008:
"Gold prices may rise to $5,000 an ounce as investors seek to protect themselves against accelerating inflation, said Schroder Investment Management Ltd., which oversees $277 billion of assets globally.

`You could easily see for the next several years that prices rise not to $1,000 an ounce, but prices rise to $5,000 an ounce or beyond as inflation psychology becomes more and more embedded and people become desperate to have a source of value,' said Christopher Wyke, London-based emerging market debt and commodities product manager at Schroder, which oversees about $10 billion of commodity assets.

Investors are turning to gold for protection as two-thirds of the world's population cope with inflation rates that are climbing to more than 10 percent, Wyke said. Cash and inflation- linked bonds are poor substitutes as low interest rates, coupled with surging inflation, erode the real value of assets, he said.

Bullion for immediate delivery was down 0.2 percent at $892.48 an ounce at 9:57 a.m. in Singapore, after gaining 3 percent in the past four days. Wyke didn't give a time frame for his gold prediction.

Demand for gold will also rise as central banks become net buyers for the first time in 20 years, driven by developing countries, he added. Last year, world production of gold sank to the lowest since 1937 as reserves are depleted and few new sources of gold have been found."

[shasta]

Yeah I'm a big silver fan and as of recently have been buying- silver bullion with a target of holding 50+ kg in mind in the short term
silver is really out of wack with the rest of the PGM IMHO I can see silver again increasing more than gold % wise long term
-Also like to take a holding in CXC current prob through my CFD account once i sell my LGL position


The ratio of Gold to Oil from 2006 to present (sitting at 6 currently). The chart is showing an extreme bargain of gold relative to oil. If the ratio were to restore to the peak in 1999 of 26, today’s $130 oil price will equate to a gold price of $3380/oz




Is it becoming apparent that gold may rise to $5000 over the next several years?
*Bloomberg, by Bei Hu, June 19, 2008:
"Gold prices may rise to $5,000 an ounce as investors seek to protect themselves against accelerating inflation, said Schroder Investment Management Ltd., which oversees $277 billion of assets globally.

`You could easily see for the next several years that prices rise not to $1,000 an ounce, but prices rise to $5,000 an ounce or beyond as inflation psychology becomes more and more embedded and people become desperate to have a source of value,' said Christopher Wyke, London-based emerging market debt and commodities product manager at Schroder, which oversees about $10 billion of commodity assets.

Investors are turning to gold for protection as two-thirds of the world's population cope with inflation rates that are climbing to more than 10 percent, Wyke said. Cash and inflation- linked bonds are poor substitutes as low interest rates, coupled with surging inflation, erode the real value of assets, he said.

Bullion for immediate delivery was down 0.2 percent at $892.48 an ounce at 9:57 a.m. in Singapore, after gaining 3 percent in the past four days. Wyke didn't give a time frame for his gold prediction.

Demand for gold will also rise as central banks become net buyers for the first time in 20 years, driven by developing countries, he added. Last year, world production of gold sank to the lowest since 1937 as reserves are depleted and few new sources of gold have been found."

Thanks for that JBMurc

Am seeing Silver & Gold (in that order) as safe havens when the US reporting season highlights just how bad the credit situation really is.

What domination are the silver bullion sold at?

Cheers

[JBmurc]

Thanks for that JBMurc

Am seeing Silver & Gold (in that order) as safe havens when the US reporting season highlights just how bad the credit situation really is.

What domination are the silver bullion sold at?

Cheers

I've been buying 1kg reg bullion bars .999 silver
also buying sterling silver if price is right (sterling 92% silver)

http://bullionrecovery.co.nz/industry.html ---paid $807 for 1kg

http://www.newzealandmint.com/dsales/dshop.mv?screen=cat&cat=19 --$890 kg perth mint bars


-just been looking at CXC very cheap at $3 looks like a bottom atm

[shasta]

I've been buying 1kg reg bullion bars .999 silver
also buying sterling silver if price is right (sterling 92% silver)

http://bullionrecovery.co.nz/industry.html ---paid $807 for 1kg

http://www.newzealandmint.com/dsales/dshop.mv?screen=cat&cat=19 --$890 kg perth mint bars


-just been looking at CXC very cheap at $3 looks like a bottom atm

Cheers for the links

Was researching CXC just last night & what caught my attention was the very high profit margins when silver is > $A15/oz.

Agree CXC is about to turn...

[whiteheron]

Shasta

My view on silver is that it has a very bright future, but I am not sure when the market will recognise this ---maybe some time in the next year or two?

CXC is my only current exposure to silver, except for where it is a by product of other mining
I had MMN but quit them as they were big on promises but small on results with continual delays

After much research I concluded that CXC was the best silver bet with approx 67 % silver and 33 % gold, a pretty good mix I think
--- a very big company with several mines and low cash costs

My opinion only

[shasta]

Shasta

My view on silver is that it has a very bright future, but I am not sure when the market will recognise this ---maybe some time in the next year or two?

CXC is my only current exposure to silver, except for where it is a by product of other mining
I had MMN but quit them as they were big on promises but small on results with continual delays

After much research I concluded that CXC was the best silver bet with approx 67 % silver and 33 % gold, a pretty good mix I think
--- a very big company with several mines and low cash costs

My opinion only

Seems the market has picked up on the Friday's jump on the NYSE, CXC up 28c on open to 330c :D

Thanks Whiteheron

[JBmurc]

CXC may come under some tax-loss selling this week with the gold price down maybe a chance for me to pick-up some at $3-3.10

-More reasons to be bullish for silver-------

Combining this number with the CRA Report's estimated total above-ground supply of 19.06 billion ounces, we arrive at 26.07 billion ounces of silver remaining above ground.

Here then is our new gold to silver rarity ratio based solely upon relative rarity. 4.25 billion ounces Au /26.07 billion ounces Ag (see Part 1) = 1 to 6.13 (Gold vs. Silver)

This means that based on relative abundance, silver should be trading at around $91.10/ounce (using a gold price of $558.5)

[JBmurc]

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1214312789.php

[macduffy]

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1214312789.php

Yes, another good article offering good info on the complex and rather opaque silver scene.

:)

[JBmurc]

well just brought my first parcel of CXC today 2.90av can see Silver really running soon I see -in Jim Sinclair's lastest e-mail he believed Gold's is set for another record breaking surge before years end-over the last yr silver outperformed Gold

Posted On: Tuesday, July 01, 2008, 11:43:00 AM EST

It Is Now!

Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear Friends,

There are two subjects of extreme importance today.

I sent you an email months ago saying, “This Is It.”

1. I am now telling you, “It Is Now.”

Gold is preparing for an assault not on $1000, but for a brief penetration of $1200.
Violent chopping will occur, then off it goes to $1650.

This violent chop we have been living in here and now will resolve itself very soon and the take will be seen by history as having occurred in this last formation HERE AND NOW.

2. Where your juniors are concerned please give equal attention to the fundamentals before you make any decision. When beaten down, as they have been, think about gold at $1200 and $1650 coming sooner than anyone expected.

Call the company and respectfully demand to speak to management, not an IR officer. If management is in the country but will not speak to you, put that in the debit column. Allow time for a call back as many other investor may be doing the same thing.

The questions are simple. Property, finances and costs are the subjects you approach.

As an example, a high cost mining company in Ghana just experienced an increased production cost per ounce of gold as a byproduct of increased electrical costs in the country. Before you push the panic button the question to the company is “What are your total costs per ounce, not cash cost?” Once you have that answer think about gold at $1650.

I will discuss the “why” of all this on www.JSMineset.com this evening.

Respectfully yours,
Jim

[shasta]

well just brought my first parcel of CXC today 2.90av can see Silver really running soon I see -in Jim Sinclair's lastest e-mail he believed Gold's is set for another record breaking surge before years end-over the last yr silver outperformed Gold

Posted On: Tuesday, July 01, 2008, 11:43:00 AM EST

It Is Now!

Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear Friends,

There are two subjects of extreme importance today.

I sent you an email months ago saying, “This Is It.”

1. I am now telling you, “It Is Now.”

Gold is preparing for an assault not on $1000, but for a brief penetration of $1200.
Violent chopping will occur, then off it goes to $1650.

This violent chop we have been living in here and now will resolve itself very soon and the take will be seen by history as having occurred in this last formation HERE AND NOW.

2. Where your juniors are concerned please give equal attention to the fundamentals before you make any decision. When beaten down, as they have been, think about gold at $1200 and $1650 coming sooner than anyone expected.

Call the company and respectfully demand to speak to management, not an IR officer. If management is in the country but will not speak to you, put that in the debit column. Allow time for a call back as many other investor may be doing the same thing.

The questions are simple. Property, finances and costs are the subjects you approach.

As an example, a high cost mining company in Ghana just experienced an increased production cost per ounce of gold as a byproduct of increased electrical costs in the country. Before you push the panic button the question to the company is “What are your total costs per ounce, not cash cost?” Once you have that answer think about gold at $1650.

I will discuss the “why” of all this on www.JSMineset.com (http://www.JSMineset.com) this evening.

Respectfully yours,
Jim

Thanks for posting that JBMurc

I'm convinced Gold will see $US1200/oz late 2008, & $US1500/oz during 2009.

I'm even more convinced Silver will outperform Gold over the next 12 - 18 months

Am researching the best options in both Gold & Silver.

For Gold i have OGC & NGF (i like CGT for the 2H 2009)

For Silver i have found CXC, MMN & SVL is there any more i've missed?

[JBmurc]

Thanks for posting that JBMurc

I'm convinced Gold will see $US1200/oz late 2008, & $US1500/oz during 2009.

I'm even more convinced Silver will outperform Gold over the next 12 - 18 months

Am researching the best options in both Gold & Silver.

For Gold i have OGC & NGF (i like CGT for the 2H 2009)

For Silver i have found CXC, MMN & SVL is there any more i've missed?

No sounds great to me hold both -OGC CXC will be increasing stakes in both as funds become av. believe they'll both very undervalued IMHO also if MMN get there act together 8.5c is going be great buyer have heard there worth alot more just on current resources in ground value.
Also buying more silver bullion atm upto 7kg should pass 10kg next week -target 50kg

[macduffy]

Hi Silver Bulls!

I hold a few CXC, having got excited about silver a few months ago. Since then, I've struggled to understand both the company and the metal.

CXC. Despite high prices for silver, opening a big new mine in Sth America and ok results, the SP has taken a beating. I read recently that CXC, or rather its US listing, is one of the most heavily shorted stocks in the USA. Coeur is of course basically a US stock with an Aust listing.

Silver. Falling demand for film processing, increasing demand for electronics etc and many potential new uses. Produced largely as a by-product of other metals therefore production is largely governed by demand for those other metals. World stock position uncertain. Rumours of deficit in physical stocks and manipulation of price denied from time to time. Price moves in loose tandem with gold. Increasingly held by investors as phyical silver or " silver certificates" as a hedge against inflation.

I could go on but in short its a complex business, both silver and CXC. I'd like to understand it a bit better. Any takers?

:)

[rowanf]

I am also confused to why CXC price is falling MADLY , even if silver price is climbing . The only reason I can think of is that it new Bolivia Silver mine, thought it is producing silver . It is extremely political unstable with :
1. It spat with the Peru goverment.
2. It other 3 main province voting for autonomy.

If it bolivia mine is sieze or stop , CXC is DEAD , since if you read in its reserve report , it bolivia mine account for nearly 80% of all CXC reserve.
Other than that reason I cant account why CXC is so dead.

[JBmurc]

I am also confused to why CXC price is falling MADLY , even if silver price is climbing . The only reason I can think of is that it new Bolivia Silver mine, thought it is producing silver . It is extremely political unstable with :
1. It spat with the Peru goverment.
2. It other 3 main province voting for autonomy.

If it bolivia mine is sieze or stop , CXC is DEAD , since if you read in its reserve report , it bolivia mine account for nearly 80% of all CXC reserve.
Other than that reason I cant account why CXC is so dead.

Theres certainly something up one of the worlds largest silver producers with operation all over the world down 7.8% atm with silver up 44% for the year crazy hopefully no prob at the bolivia mine

[macduffy]

Hi shasta

There's also MAR. They have plans to resurrect an old silver mine - in NSW I think. Having been burnt by companies trying to revive old gold mines I'm not really interested but it may be worth a look.

:)

[shasta]

Hi shasta

There's also MAR. They have plans to resurrect an old silver mine - in NSW I think. Having been burnt by companies trying to revive old gold mines I'm not really interested but it may be worth a look.

:)

Thanks Macduffy

MMN owns a chunk of MAR, & has some JV's with them, so im watching there progress with interest. ;)

[JBmurc]

With other major miners surging ahead of late CXC goes nowhere???????? current SP -2.61
NCM -is looking at opening at- 32.40 LGL-3.34 NEM -5.27


About Coeur
Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation is one of the world’s leading silver companies and also a significant
gold producer, with anticipated 2008 production of approximately 16 million ounces of silver, a 40%
increase over 2007 levels. Coeur, which has no silver or gold production hedged, is now producing
silver at the world’s largest pure silver mine - San Bartolomé in Bolivia – and is currently constructing
another world-leading silver mine – Palmarejo in Mexico. The Company also operates two
underground mines in southern Chile and Argentina and one surface mine in Nevada; and owns nonoperating
interests in two low-cost mines in Australia. The Company also owns a major gold project in
Alaska and conducts exploration activities in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Mexico and Tanzania. Coeur
common shares are traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol CDE, the Toronto Stock
Exchange under the symbol CDM, and its CHESS Depositary Interests are traded on the Australian
Securities Exchange under the symbol CXC.

[JBmurc]

There must be something going on that only the insiders are aware of for this stock. The constant plunge in price is just unexplainable. This company on 2010 figures should be producing 40M oz silver equivelent and currently has a market capitalisation of only $1.3B. On the figures above noting that CDE have just recently advised that their production cost per ounce is around $3.50 this company stands to make around $550M profit. On a P/E 10 that gives it a market cap of $5.5B or around $9 share price. CDE at $2.34 is trading at August 2003 prices. What's going on?


-now if your a major silver bull like myself that USD $550m profit should at least double on the back of a $36oz min silver prices IMHO we could well see over $100oz in 2010 putting CXC profit well over 2 billion----- crazy but so will be the future silver Bull run

[macduffy]

It seems that CXC ( or rather the US listed version) has a bit of a history of inexplicable trading/pricing. Whether its all part of the strange silver scene ( remember the Hunt brothers' episode? ) or not I wouldn't know. I took a small position a few months ago but thinking now I would have been better off buying some physical metal!

:(

[JBmurc]

It seems that CXC ( or rather the US listed version) has a bit of a history of inexplicable trading/pricing. Whether its all part of the strange silver scene ( remember the Hunt brothers' episode? ) or not I wouldn't know. I took a small position a few months ago but thinking now I would have been better off buying some physical metal!

:(

Yeah I know what you mean over the last year if I had just brought physical silver gold oil futures I'd have been well over $200k better off than investing in the companies producing the stuff
pretty gutting when I've been bullish for yrs on the above and now because of the last 12months of trading to be looking forward to my tax-loss payment from the IRD

As for the hunt brothers now they have sold out of there petroluem interests for 2billion I hope they invest alot of those funds into CDE & silver

[shasta]

Yeah I know what you mean over the last year if I had just brought physical silver gold oil futures I'd have been well over $200k better off than investing in the companies producing the stuff
pretty gutting when I've been bullish for yrs on the above and now because of the last 12months of trading to be looking forward to my tax-loss payment from the IRD

As for the hunt brothers now they have sold out of there petroluem interests for 2billion I hope they invest alot of those funds into CDE & silver

Cheers for the posts JBMurc, like yourself i'm more & more becoming a gold/silver bug, & CXC looks good on so many levels, yet the SP is a joke!

There margins are fantastic, so any ramp up of production & increasing silver prices will surely attract a re-rating?

CXC, like OGC seem to have all the boxes ticked, but just arent performing, very strange indeed!

[Huang Chung]

Chart looks dreadful.

You might find this link of interest.

http://www.compareshares.com.au/wise60.php

[JBmurc]

Chart looks dreadful.

You might find this link of interest.

http://www.compareshares.com.au/wise60.php

Yeah thanks HC -Glad I only started buying of late 2.62av

the CXC negs from - Wise owl

While the company’s longer term silver ambitions remain firm, the punishment dished out to the share price over recent months has been due to a combination of factors – namely, an unexpected capital raising, downward revisions to near term production, and a pull back in the silver price from record highs.

-Well I'm postive the last point being the major re-rater,turn rounder for CXC


-a piece from Jason hommel 12th july newsletter

Like gold, silver has all the properties of money, it is easily tradeable, transportable, divisible, interchangeable, genuinely recognizable, verifiable, lasting, rare, and a luxury item. Silver also has many properties that make it much more desirable than gold, such as, it is much more electrically conductive & reflective.

Why will silver go up in price?

The two main reasons silver will go up in price are:

1. There has been way too much paper money created in the last 30 years, and the rate of paper money creation is increasing at increasing rates, up to 20% per year.

2. Silver is more rare than ever due to the irretrievable consumption of silver by industry. It is probable that refined .999 pure silver is more rare than gold.

Where can I buy silver?????? CXC will soon be the world's biggest low-cost producer

[shasta]

Chart looks dreadful.

You might find this link of interest.

http://www.compareshares.com.au/wise60.php

I should have added, like many other stocks im watching (incl OGC), i will await until the charts indicate a "buy".

Fundamentally CXC stacks up, & i'm bias towards silver :p

[JBmurc]

silver through $19us
CDE up another 3c to 2.61 TSX

hope this is silver next strong upleg to new $22+ base
surely in this bear market/Bull commondites CXC should gain some traction soon back over $3 which to many will be a buy signal ,I;m sure alot of CXC CDE shorters must be looking at the exit door with further gold/silver gains looking likely

[macduffy]

I've discovered the secret to CXC's SP movements!
It moves in inverse relationship to the price of silver.
Silver up last night to over USD19
CXC down again today!

Disc: Holding, but unhappy.

:(

[shasta]

I've discovered the secret to CXC's SP movements!
It moves in inverse relationship to the price of silver.
Silver up last night to over USD19
CXC down again today!

Disc: Holding, but unhappy.

:(

CXC down to $2.44 (-15c)

Very weird logic, when they are meant to produce alot more this year!

How much further could it go :confused:

[Kookaburra]

Jarred Diamond in his book Collapse talked about the huge clean ups needed after gold leaching and I think this included Rochester - I wonder if CXC has liabilities in this area hanging over it. It might be worth checking the fine print for as an explanation of its soft price despite strong fundamentals.

[shasta]

Jarred Diamond in his book Collapse talked about the huge clean ups needed after gold leaching and I think this included Rochester - I wonder if CXC has liabilities in this area hanging over it. It might be worth checking the fine print for as an explanation of its soft price despite strong fundamentals.

Found this article that relates to CXC...

http://www.miningmx.com/gold_silver/664235.htm

[whiteheron]

CXC has proven to be one of those problem companies
There are obviously factors holding the shareprice back and all that I can come up with is country/political risk and maybe undisclosed potential liabilities

One must always look for possibilities of negatives which companies seem reluctant to disclose ----- they are always quick to disclose positives but not the negatives

Just my thoughts, but I am sure that I am right!!!!!!

[shasta]

CXC has proven to be one of those problem companies
There are obviously factors holding the shareprice back and all that I can come up with is country/political risk and maybe undisclosed potential liabilities

One must always look for possibilities of negatives which companies seem reluctant to disclose ----- they are always quick to disclose positives but not the negatives

Just my thoughts, but I am sure that I am right!!!!!!

WH

Hope to see you at the next Wellington meeting.

CXC fundamentally looks better & better, yet the chart is a dog :(

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/Superchart?session=0&instrument=CXC&exchange=ASX&period=1Y&ps=&vs=LINE&ct=LINE&comps=&compi=&ma1=30&ma2=90&bb=Y&ind=RSI&template=dblsuperchart&adj=yes&ra=2

[macduffy]

It seems I'll have to develop a new CXC/silver pricing theory.
Both CXC and the PoS down yesterday!

:confused:

[shasta]

It seems I'll have to develop a new CXC/silver pricing theory.
Both CXC and the PoS down yesterday!

:confused:

CXC have cash costs around $US3/oz, so with the POS around $US18/oz there is still a very good margin ;)

[Huang Chung]

More info on CXC.

http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2008/06/30/5-mid-cap-miners-the-all-stars-adore.aspx

Also check out the imbedded link 'highlighted the company'.

[Kookaburra]

This company is looking a bit like OGC which is also descending rapidly despite good fundamentals. There is a long lead time to production from OGC though whereas this company must surely have good current cash flows. One factor for all gold and silver stocks is that it is probably a myth that the Fed is fueling liquidity. Although it is furiously supporting failing banks, GaveKal reports show that it is sterilising this as much as possible by mopping up liquidity and the velocity of money is diminishing rapidly. Disinflation will reduce future precious metal prices. Many players must be factoring this into their stock pricing now.

[shasta]

This company is looking a bit like OGC which is also descending rapidly despite good fundamentals. There is a long lead time to production from OGC though whereas this company must surely have good current cash flows. One factor for all gold and silver stocks is that it is probably a myth that the Fed is fueling liquidity. Although it is furiously supporting failing banks, GaveKal reports show that it is sterilising this as much as possible by mopping up liquidity and the velocity of money is diminishing rapidly. Disinflation will reduce future precious metal prices. Many players must be factoring this into their stock pricing now.

Article on Gold & Silver well worth a read & applies to CXC...

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=57610&sn=Detail

[shasta]

Article on Gold & Silver well worth a read & applies to CXC...

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=57610&sn=Detail

CXC on a bit of a roll of late & back to $3...

One of my top 3 stocks for 2009 ;)

[AMR]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture.php?albumid=5&pictureid=33

Trend change in the works by the looks of it. I've missed the initial signal but will probably enter on a pullback.

[shasta]

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture.php?albumid=5&pictureid=33

Trend change in the works by the looks of it. I've missed the initial signal but will probably enter on a pullback.

Big drop on the back of a disappointing HY result (though NTA = $US3.13)

However if you add back the $US16.4m "pre development expenses" the profit is closer to $US15m, so its not all bad...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=515491

2nd Quarter Results
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=515490

I expect the POS to double over the next 12 - 18 months, when the US economy finally has it's life support switched off.

They can't keep printing money unless they want to join Zimbabwe!

[shasta]

Big drop on the back of a disappointing HY result (though NTA = $US3.13)

However if you add back the $US16.4m "pre development expenses" the profit is closer to $US15m, so its not all bad...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=515491

2nd Quarter Results
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=515490

I expect the POS to double over the next 12 - 18 months, when the US economy finally has it's life support switched off.

They can't keep printing money unless they want to join Zimbabwe!

CXC drops 41c to $2 today, i must say this appears to be a knee jerk reaction to yesterdays results, which were a bit misleading.

By expensing development costs that will from now on be capitalised, has turned a decent profit into a loss.

When Silver takes off so will CXC, & they have plenty of gold to boot...

To cheap to ignore...;)

[JBmurc]

CXC drops 41c to $2 today, i must say this appears to be a knee jerk reaction to yesterdays results, which were a bit misleading.

By expensing development costs that will from now on be capitalised, has turned a decent profit into a loss.

When Silver takes off so will CXC, & they have plenty of gold to boot...

To cheap to ignore...;)

Very much so shasta CXC forecast P/E of 5 for 2009E current NTA-$3.21
current SP 2.08c personal increasing my CFD in CXC atm

Silver - 5 times as present in the earth's crust as gold we're told. Above ground, in processed form, it's rarer than gold. And it's going to stay that way! It's being consumed or hoarded at a faster rate than industrial production. And that aint gonna change except at vastly higher prices.


---78 reasons for silver to trade alot higher even higher than gold------$1000oz here we come :)
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2003/0718.html

[shasta]

Very much so shasta CXC forecast P/E of 5 for 2009E current NTA-$3.21
current SP 2.08c personal increasing my CFD in CXC atm

Silver - 5 times as present in the earth's crust as gold we're told. Above ground, in processed form, it's rarer than gold. And it's going to stay that way! It's being consumed or hoarded at a faster rate than industrial production. And that aint gonna change except at vastly higher prices.


---78 reasons for silver to trade alot higher even higher than gold------$1000oz here we come :)
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2003/0718.html

Thanks for the link, some thought provoking stuff there...

I too believe Silver & Gold are due for a run either late 2008, or early 2009.

Whether Silver hits, $20, $25 or even $30 an ounce who knows...

Prediction for 2009:

Gold will hit $US1350/oz, & Silver will hit $US25/oz, whether it is maintained or for how long, will depend on the US economy.

Oil will go back up, but this time Gold & Silver will decouple from Oil

[JBmurc]

Thanks for the link, some thought provoking stuff there...

I too believe Silver & Gold are due for a run either late 2008, or early 2009.

Whether Silver hits, $20, $25 or even $30 an ounce who knows...

Prediction for 2009:

Gold will hit $US1350/oz, & Silver will hit $US25/oz, whether it is maintained or for how long, will depend on the US economy.

Oil will go back up, but this time Gold & Silver will decouple from Oil

I think you underestimate how much silver is undervalued for 1 the gold to silver ratio is a joke with there being alot more gold round than silver at the very minuimim silver should get back to a 10:1 ratio which would mean gold 1350oz -silver 135oz and this being only the start for both metals -time will tell in the mean time I'm buying up silver bullion while its cheap:)

[Mick100]

JBmurc - where are you buying bullion in NZ ?

[shasta]

JBmurc - where are you buying bullion in NZ ?

Mick

Some of the links i have that may be of use...

http://www.nzsilver.com/

http://www.silverinstitute.org/uses.php#brazing

http://bullionrecovery.co.nz/index.html

[shasta]

Mick

Some of the links i have that may be of use...

http://www.nzsilver.com/

http://www.silverinstitute.org/uses.php#brazing

http://bullionrecovery.co.nz/index.html

CXC update on San Bartolome'...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=519564

[JBmurc]

CXC update on San Bartolome'...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=519564

Yep you got it shasta buying more silver with every paycheck check out the demand V's production CXC is an aboslute steal at $2

http://seekingalpha.com/article/93355-coeur-d-alene-mines-compelling-silver-

just checkout the silver scrap making up 180 tons in 07 can't see this lasting should fall as there's less silver above ground than gold

[shasta]

Yep you got it shasta buying more silver with every paycheck check out the demand V's production CXC is an aboslute steal at $2

http://seekingalpha.com/article/93355-coeur-d-alene-mines-compelling-silver-

just checkout the silver scrap making up 180 tons in 07 can't see this lasting should fall as there's less silver above ground than gold

CXC ann - to present at the Denver Gold Forum :confused:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=519776

[macduffy]

CXC ann - to present at the Denver Gold Forum :confused:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=519776

I seem to remember seeing a similar announcement a month or two ago re Mr Krebs presenting at another conference.
A Clayton's type announcement.

:rolleyes:

[JBmurc]

India's silver imports seen surging on lower prices
Mon Sep 15, 2008

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India will import around 300 tonnes of silver in September to meet heavy demand triggered by falling prices, after buying just 56 tonnes in the seven months to July-end, a trade body said on Monday.

"By the month-end we are getting some 15 containers of silver, which is equal to 300 tonnes. After that, demand will probably slow down a bit," Suresh Hundia, president of the Bombay Bullion Association, told Reuters.

Silver demand has surged on lower prices and as Indians prepare to mark a series of religious festivals.

International silver prices were at $10.93 an ounce on Monday, down from about $19.45 on July 13, due to a fall in crude prices and dollar volatility.

India's annual silver imports are estimated at more than 3,000 tonnes.

Dealers said local demand for silver was so high ahead of Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights next month, they were only able to meet a fraction of it.

It is considered auspicious to buy or gift silver coins and utensils ahead of the festival.

"I am able to sell only about 500 kg of silver daily, though the demand is for about five tonnes daily. The supply of metal is extremely thin," said Rajesh Jalan, a Kolkata-based bullion dealer.

[shasta]

India's silver imports seen surging on lower prices
Mon Sep 15, 2008

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India will import around 300 tonnes of silver in September to meet heavy demand triggered by falling prices, after buying just 56 tonnes in the seven months to July-end, a trade body said on Monday.

"By the month-end we are getting some 15 containers of silver, which is equal to 300 tonnes. After that, demand will probably slow down a bit," Suresh Hundia, president of the Bombay Bullion Association, told Reuters.

Silver demand has surged on lower prices and as Indians prepare to mark a series of religious festivals.

International silver prices were at $10.93 an ounce on Monday, down from about $19.45 on July 13, due to a fall in crude prices and dollar volatility.

India's annual silver imports are estimated at more than 3,000 tonnes.

Dealers said local demand for silver was so high ahead of Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights next month, they were only able to meet a fraction of it.

It is considered auspicious to buy or gift silver coins and utensils ahead of the festival.

"I am able to sell only about 500 kg of silver daily, though the demand is for about five tonnes daily. The supply of metal is extremely thin," said Rajesh Jalan, a Kolkata-based bullion dealer.

JBMurc

I like CXC, especially the vast amount of Silver it produces, not too mention it's very useful Gold (& we know Silver & Gold are due for a run), but CXC at $1.78 puzzles me.

Technically it's very weak, & still in free fall...

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=CXC&exchange=ASX&period=1Y&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=LINE&compi=&ma1=30&ma2=90&bb=Y&ind=RSI&ra=2

[shasta]

JBMurc

I like CXC, especially the vast amount of Silver it produces, not too mention it's very useful Gold (& we know Silver & Gold are due for a run), but CXC at $1.78 puzzles me.

Technically it's very weak, & still in free fall...

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=CXC&exchange=ASX&period=1Y&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=LINE&compi=&ma1=30&ma2=90&bb=Y&ind=RSI&ra=2

CXC up 21c to $1.96 - any ideas why people?

CXC kept falling when the price of silver was increasing, & with no ann it seems a little strange.

I see CXC on the NYSE & TSX jumped up too, is this the first shift into Gold & Silver producers as a safe haven during this financial crisis :confused:

[Huang Chung]

I think silver was up even more than gold last night. If that wasn't a catalyst to get a bounce in CXC, nothing is.

[shasta]

I think silver was up even more than gold last night. If that wasn't a catalyst to get a bounce in CXC, nothing is.

Of course thanks HC, was viewing Kitco Silver showing the live prices for today!

PNA & CXC looking good ;)

http://www.kitcosilver.com/charts/24hoursspot.html

[shasta]

Of course thanks HC, was viewing Kitco Silver showing the live prices for today!

PNA & CXC looking good ;)

http://www.kitcosilver.com/charts/24hoursspot.html

Time to crunch some numbers on my 2nd favourite ASX stock :D

Shares on Issue: approx 550m

Current Share Price: $A2.08 (Market Cap ~$A1.1b)

Approx cash on hand* @ 30 June = $US187m (from recent presentation)

*Including cash equivalents

My FY09 Assumptions:

Gross Profit Margin for Silver of $US7.5/oz (incl royalties & taxes)

Gross Profit Margin for Gold of $US300/oz

$US0.90 = $A1

From the recent presentation, suggests FY 09 production (all mines) of 22m/oz of Silver, & 140k/oz Gold.

Total overall expenses (netting off interest rec'd), say $A80m**

** Note, Exploration costs are no longer being expensed, & after review of FY07 costs plus nominal increase of approx $A20m

Silver Revenue:

22m ounces @ $US7.5/oz margin = $US165m ($A183m)

Gold Revenue:

140k ounces @ $US300/oz margin = $US42m ($A47m)

Gross Profit ($183m + $47m) = $A230m - $A80m total costs

Net profit before tax of $A150m (lets ignore tax, assuming c/f losses)

EPS 150m/550m = 0.27 or 27cps

P/E Ratio 2.08/.27 = 7.70

As you can see CXC is directly exposed to the POS & POG, plus the $US.

I believe my figures are conservative, but as always DYOR! :rolleyes:

[macduffy]

Hi shasta.

No argument with your assumptions, they look reasonable to me.
My big concern is with the manipulation in the PoS which seems to be endemic. Perhaps I've read too much Ted Butler! For some reason the silver market is easier to control than the gold market, probably because there are fewer players in the former?
I'm holding CXC but not inclined to buy more at this point.

:)

[shasta]

Hi shasta.

No argument with your assumptions, they look reasonable to me.
My big concern is with the manipulation in the PoS which seems to be endemic. Perhaps I've read too much Ted Butler! For some reason the silver market is easier to control than the gold market, probably because there are fewer players in the former?
I'm holding CXC but not inclined to buy more at this point.

:)

Source used....

http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/86/864/86472/items/296751/Coeur%20Dalene%20Mines-NYSSA%20June%202008.pdf

I see actual cash costs have reduced to just $US2.52/oz (+ i read somewhere royalties & taxes amounting to $US2.03/oz?).

So direct cash costs of $US4.55/oz, (lets say $US5/oz)

The presentation refers to Silver going to $US20/oz late 2008. :)

That would double the silver gross profit margin (to $US15/oz) & therefore double the gross profit to $US330m ($A366m, with $US0.90 = $A1), & thats just the Silver!

BTW, JBMurc & I are far more bullish than CXC re the POS! :eek:

I think this makes CXC a compelling buy, given the POS is likely to go up, along with Gold, & this financial crisis is surely the catalyst for it!

[shasta]

Source used....

http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/86/864/86472/items/296751/Coeur%20Dalene%20Mines-NYSSA%20June%202008.pdf

I see actual cash costs have reduced to just $US2.52/oz (+ i read somewhere royalties & taxes amounting to $US2.03/oz?).

So direct cash costs of $US4.55/oz, (lets say $US5/oz)

The presentation refers to Silver going to $US20/oz late 2008. :)

That would double the silver gross profit margin (to $US15/oz) & therefore double the gross profit to $US330m ($A366m, with $US0.90 = $A1), & thats just the Silver!

BTW, JBMurc & I are far more bullish than CXC re the POS! :eek:

I think this makes CXC a compelling buy, given the POS is likely to go up, along with Gold, & this financial crisis is surely the catalyst for it!

CXC - Update re Supreme Court case-Kensington Alternative Tailings Plan

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=521960

Updated chart, for the CXC turnaround

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/Charts.aspx?asxCode=cxc&compare=comp_index&indicies=XJO&chartType=3&pma1=10&pma2=30&volumeInd=10&vma=20&TimeFrame=D6

[shasta]

CXC - Update re Supreme Court case-Kensington Alternative Tailings Plan

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=521960

Updated chart, for the CXC turnaround

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/Charts.aspx?asxCode=cxc&compare=comp_index&indicies=XJO&chartType=3&pma1=10&pma2=30&volumeInd=10&vma=20&TimeFrame=D6

In this market there are always "quality" stocks that get oversold by being caught up with the general market sentiment, but CXC belies belief...

CXC currently down 20c to $1.85 despite Gold being up >$US900/oz & Silver up > $US13/oz.

Crazy stuff :eek:

[JBmurc]

In this market there are always "quality" stocks that get oversold by being caught up with the general market sentiment, but CXC belies belief...

CXC currently down 20c to $1.85 despite Gold being up >$US900/oz & Silver up > $US13/oz.

Crazy stuff :eek:

Think there was a downgrade put on CXC -SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) -- A JPMorgan analyst on Wednesday downgraded silver and gold miner Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. after it abandoned its pursuit of permits for an alternative waste disposal plan for the proposed Kensington Mine in Alaska.

-with silver falling heavy overnight we may see CXC at never to be repeated prices today on the ASX

[JBmurc]

Mick

Some of the links i have that may be of use...

http://www.nzsilver.com/

http://www.silverinstitute.org/uses.php#brazing

http://bullionrecovery.co.nz/index.html

Talking about bullion I rang NZ mint to see their current 1kg silver bullion price -which today is a very cheap $645 in talking with the bullion dealer it sounds like the phone hasn't stopped ringing over the last couple weeks
Now if you put this in a world perspective and the fact that only 10% of silver production goes towards the investor market with the rest taking care of by industrial uses.surely the only thing keeping silver prices down are Large Silver Shorts which must be brought out at some time I wondar how much of the 700bill US bail out will go toward covering stupid short orders on precious metals
A silver fact investors should know is the fact at current silver demand production of current 2p reserves will ranout within 15yrs now as silver scrap makes up a sizable part of the supply this could happen alot earlier
Also put in the fact of an increasing demand of silver in electric cars, plasma ,water filters etc & investor demand silver production V's demand may hit the wall much sooner

[JBmurc]

Ted Butler.


That’s why I’ve made such a big deal about the uniqueness of a silver short position that’s larger than existing world inventories.

It eliminates one of the only two legitimate ways in which a short sale can be closed out.

That’s why we’ve never seen any other commodity with a short position greater than what actually exists.

How can you have a short position in anything greater than what actually exists?

The only remaining legitimate way a silver short position can be closed out is if it were bought back by the short sellers.



-------------------------------June 8, 2008
U.S. Mint says its silver supply will be cut in half!

That the large and conservative Swiss bank is seeking to reduce or eliminate its short exposure to silver at this time makes sense. The bank has seen that silver prices can move sharply higher and that counterparty guarantees can vanish in an instant. It is sensible and practical that it would take such actions now, after silver prices moved sharply lower.

The resultant move by former paper owners of silver into real metal is destined to put additional pressure on the existing supplies of metal. It is hard to imagine a more critical time for this to occur than now. Every indication is one of tightness in the physical silver supply. The potential creation of a brand new source of silver physical demand could be profound.

The short seller is a buyer albeit at a lower price.

Take him away and in a market panic and add him to the panic buyers there could be a explosion in the silver market and amazing price ranges. Silver Alert!



From whom are these short sellers going to buy hundreds of millions and billions of silver ounces from?

Not me!!!

[shasta]

Ted Butler.


That’s why I’ve made such a big deal about the uniqueness of a silver short position that’s larger than existing world inventories.

It eliminates one of the only two legitimate ways in which a short sale can be closed out.

That’s why we’ve never seen any other commodity with a short position greater than what actually exists.

How can you have a short position in anything greater than what actually exists?

The only remaining legitimate way a silver short position can be closed out is if it were bought back by the short sellers.



-------------------------------June 8, 2008
U.S. Mint says its silver supply will be cut in half!

That the large and conservative Swiss bank is seeking to reduce or eliminate its short exposure to silver at this time makes sense. The bank has seen that silver prices can move sharply higher and that counterparty guarantees can vanish in an instant. It is sensible and practical that it would take such actions now, after silver prices moved sharply lower.

The resultant move by former paper owners of silver into real metal is destined to put additional pressure on the existing supplies of metal. It is hard to imagine a more critical time for this to occur than now. Every indication is one of tightness in the physical silver supply. The potential creation of a brand new source of silver physical demand could be profound.

The short seller is a buyer albeit at a lower price.

Take him away and in a market panic and add him to the panic buyers there could be a explosion in the silver market and amazing price ranges. Silver Alert!



From whom are these short sellers going to buy hundreds of millions and billions of silver ounces from?

Not me!!!

It's only when sometime next year CXC is trading back over $4 that people will finally realise that the Silver market has been so manipulated that it can't be held back forever!

When silver moves, it will do so alot quicker than people think!

[macduffy]

It's only when sometime next year CXC is trading back over $4 that people will finally realise that the Silver market has been so manipulated that it can't be held back forever!

When silver moves, it will do so alot quicker than people think!

I keep hearing this and I keep hoping that it will be so!

;)

Disc: Holding CXC.

[macduffy]

CXC up today - in this market!

Looks like some notice is finally being taken!

;)

[JBmurc]

looks like physical silver here in NZ is only becoming harder to buy rang NZ mint as I look to increase my holding 1kg silver bullion 5-6 weeks and as for 1oz silver ferns FEB09 at the earliest

[shasta]

looks like physical silver here in NZ is only becoming harder to buy rang NZ mint as I look to increase my holding 1kg silver bullion 5-6 weeks and as for 1oz silver ferns FEB09 at the earliest

That tightly wound spring keeps coiling, for how much longer?

[JBmurc]

Great rise for CXC today closing up 15% 184c 195c the high for the day

[shasta]

Great rise for CXC today closing up 15% 184c 195c the high for the day

Well CXC has both SIlver & Gold (& plenty of it!)

Only a matter of time :rolleyes:

Gold, silver in short supply for those getting out of stocks

DAYTON — If you are thinking of diversifying your portfolio to include gold and silver, you may have to stand in line.

Richard Hana of Belmont Coin said his shop ran out of pure gold and silver coins two weeks ago.

"We people come looking for gold or silver, we take their name and when something comes in, we call them," Hana said Wednesday, Oct. 8. "In a sense, it is already sold before it comes in the door."

Hana said business is up 300 percent to 400 percent, particularly in the past weeks.

"People are scrambling to buy gold and silver," said Ed Fritz of Centerville Coin & Jewelry Connection.

"There is huge shortage worldwide. People are pulling money out of economy, which has created a huge demand," said Fritz, who has been in the business for 40 years.

Gold was selling around $910 a troy ounce by midday and silver at $11.70.
There was plenty of gold in March when the metal was selling for over $1,000 an ounce. Then customers were coming in to sell. Now they want to buy, but few wish to sell.

"Everybody wants a different hedge with all the problems going on," said John Eckman of Dixie Coins & Stamp. "They want to buy something that will be worth something in the future. But there are no guarantees."

Fritz called gold "liquid cash". Following last month's windstorm, a customer came in to sell a 1-ounce gold coin so he could fix his roof.

"People see it as something tangible that won't disappear on you like the numbers on Wall Street," Hana said.

Eckman has a customer who took a General Motors buyout and is now investing in precious metals. Another, an older woman, bought 20 ounces of gold last week.

"When she has some extra money, she buys," Eckman said.
"There is plenty of gold out there, but nobody wants to sell right now," he said.

[lakedaemonian]

looks like physical silver here in NZ is only becoming harder to buy rang NZ mint as I look to increase my holding 1kg silver bullion 5-6 weeks and as for 1oz silver ferns FEB09 at the earliest

The $$ spread between paper and physical seems to be growing in $ and % terms as well.

Paper silver prices have dropped.....physical not so much.

[macduffy]

Ted Butler's latest commentary makes the point that industrial demand for silver is likely to exceed supply in the near future, despite the prospect of world-wide recession. He reasons that production of silver, largely a by product of mining other metals, will drop as more zinc, lead and copper mines close or curtail production.

http://www.investmentrarities.com/

;)

[JBmurc]

Ted Butler's latest commentary makes the point that industrial demand for silver is likely to exceed supply in the near future, despite the prospect of world-wide recession. He reasons that production of silver, largely a by product of mining other metals, will drop as more zinc, lead and copper mines close or curtail production.

http://www.investmentrarities.com/

;)

Thats why I'm so very bullish on silver it's a no-brainer if there's a major world recession & production drops investors buy as a safe haven store of wealth etc. if the world comes out of the recession quicky and world growth takes off silver demand will also grow massively eitherway low teen silver prices will be a thing of the past soon

[JBmurc]

Gold, silver in short supply for those getting out of stocks

By Doug Page

Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 08, 2008

DAYTON — If you are thinking of diversifying your portfolio to include gold and silver, you may have to stand in line.

Richard Hana of Belmont Coin said his shop ran out of pure gold and silver coins two weeks ago.

"We people come looking for gold or silver, we take their name and when something comes in, we call them," Hana said Wednesday, Oct. 8. "In a sense, it is already sold before it comes in the door."

Hana said business is up 300 percent to 400 percent, particularly in the past weeks.
"People are scrambling to buy gold and silver," said Ed Fritz of Centerville Coin & Jewelry Connection.

"There is huge shortage worldwide. People are pulling money out of economy, which has created a huge demand," said Fritz, who has been in the business for 40 years.

Gold was selling around $910 a troy ounce by midday and silver at $11.70.

There was plenty of gold in March when the metal was selling for over $1,000 an ounce. Then customers were coming in to sell. Now they want to buy, but few wish to sell.

"Everybody wants a different hedge with all the problems going on," said John Eckman of Dixie Coins & Stamp. "They want to buy something that will be worth something in the future. But there are no guarantees."

Fritz called gold "liquid cash". Following last month's windstorm, a customer came in to sell a 1-ounce gold coin so he could fix his roof.

"People see it as something tangible that won't disappear on you like the numbers on Wall Street," Hana said.

Eckman has a customer who took a General Motors buyout and is now investing in precious metals. Another, an older woman, bought 20 ounces of gold last week.

"When she has some extra money, she buys," Eckman said.

"There is plenty of gold out there, but nobody wants to sell right now," he said.

Contact this reporter at (937) 225-2290 or dpage@DaytonDailyNews.com.

[shasta]

Gold, silver in short supply for those getting out of stocks

By Doug Page

Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 08, 2008

DAYTON — If you are thinking of diversifying your portfolio to include gold and silver, you may have to stand in line.

Richard Hana of Belmont Coin said his shop ran out of pure gold and silver coins two weeks ago.

"We people come looking for gold or silver, we take their name and when something comes in, we call them," Hana said Wednesday, Oct. 8. "In a sense, it is already sold before it comes in the door."

Hana said business is up 300 percent to 400 percent, particularly in the past weeks.
"People are scrambling to buy gold and silver," said Ed Fritz of Centerville Coin & Jewelry Connection.

"There is huge shortage worldwide. People are pulling money out of economy, which has created a huge demand," said Fritz, who has been in the business for 40 years.

Gold was selling around $910 a troy ounce by midday and silver at $11.70.

There was plenty of gold in March when the metal was selling for over $1,000 an ounce. Then customers were coming in to sell. Now they want to buy, but few wish to sell.

"Everybody wants a different hedge with all the problems going on," said John Eckman of Dixie Coins & Stamp. "They want to buy something that will be worth something in the future. But there are no guarantees."

Fritz called gold "liquid cash". Following last month's windstorm, a customer came in to sell a 1-ounce gold coin so he could fix his roof.

"People see it as something tangible that won't disappear on you like the numbers on Wall Street," Hana said.

Eckman has a customer who took a General Motors buyout and is now investing in precious metals. Another, an older woman, bought 20 ounces of gold last week.

"When she has some extra money, she buys," Eckman said.

"There is plenty of gold out there, but nobody wants to sell right now," he said.

Contact this reporter at (937) 225-2290 or dpage@DaytonDailyNews.com.

CXC - Production Guidance & Update...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=524663

When Silver starts it's run CXC will skyrocket, just wait ;)

[shasta]

CXC - Production Guidance & Update...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=524663

When Silver starts it's run CXC will skyrocket, just wait ;)

Gold and silver prices reach a major tipping point

In an unprecedented move last week, central banks practically stopped lending gold to banks and other participants in the precious metals market.


http://www.ameinfo.com/images/news/5/45405-GoldBar.jpgGold looks set to have reached its tipping point

Last week the one-month gold lease rate rocketed to 2.6%, the highest since May 2001 and way above its five-year average of 0.12%, according to the London Bullion Market Association.

A major turning point for gold and silver prices is at hand.
Gold and silver went through a severe correction this summer just like the correction in 1975.

Then gold prices dipped by almost 50% from peak to trough.

Since its March all-time high of $1,030 an ounce, gold has completed a perfect 38.3% Fibonacci retracement, bouncing back to current price levels.

Silver also followed the Fibonacci sequence, albeit with a deeper 50% fall from March peak to the trough.

It is important therefore to note that price corrections are behind us in precious metals.

These were fairly brutal commodity price corrections. But the rebound has been quick in the case of gold and can only be around the corner for silver - the two seldom move out of synch for long.

Tipping point
Now we have to look at the supply and demand position to determine whether this could in fact be a tipping point. The downside after a big correction like we have just seen is clearly small or entirely gone.

Gold first: Last week investors queued in the streets of London to buy gold. We have a similar rush in the souks of Dubai. Gold coins are selling at the highest premiums to spot gold price in 30 years, and stocks are running out.

Gold has risen sharply in price this week despite a very sharp rally in the US dollar, lower oil prices and collapsing stock markets. Usually the dollar and gold do not move in the same direction, so this is highly significant. Gold also usually falls with oil.

Bullion premium
In silver the premium paid for bullion bars is up to 50% above the spot price as dealers are running low and demand remains very strong. Why are silver premiums higher than gold: simply because silver stocks are tighter.
This is the classic case of tugging on a piece of elastic fixed to a brick. The pull of the retail price is suddenly going to increase the silver spot price. It just has to as bullion dealers replace their stocks.

We now also have an official enquiry into the shorting of the silver market by two US banks over the summer that crashed the price. No matter that the banks will probably be exonerated. They have removed their short positions - so there is nothing there to prevent silver prices surging ahead.

Supply shrinking
Meanwhile on the supply side things could hardly be better for price rises in precious metals. Central banks are withdrawing planned gold sales while output is falling at the major producers.

Silver stocks have always been tight as unlike gold the metal is consumed by industrial processes; but silver is also a precious metal which tracks gold as 'the poor man's' alternative. Silver production is increasing but only at a snail's pace.

Will silver prices again outperform gold by a factor of two as they have in the 2000s so far? It is not guaranteed but looks a fair assumption. And once stock markets have ceased to fall silver producers look an excellent buy, as will the junior gold exploration companies.

However, if this is not a tipping point for gold and silver prices then it can only be a matter of weeks or a couple of months until we reach one. Mostly likely this is it!

[shasta]

Gold and silver prices reach a major tipping point

In an unprecedented move last week, central banks practically stopped lending gold to banks and other participants in the precious metals market.


http://www.ameinfo.com/images/news/5/45405-GoldBar.jpgGold looks set to have reached its tipping point

Last week the one-month gold lease rate rocketed to 2.6%, the highest since May 2001 and way above its five-year average of 0.12%, according to the London Bullion Market Association.

A major turning point for gold and silver prices is at hand.
Gold and silver went through a severe correction this summer just like the correction in 1975.

Then gold prices dipped by almost 50% from peak to trough.

Since its March all-time high of $1,030 an ounce, gold has completed a perfect 38.3% Fibonacci retracement, bouncing back to current price levels.

Silver also followed the Fibonacci sequence, albeit with a deeper 50% fall from March peak to the trough.

It is important therefore to note that price corrections are behind us in precious metals.

These were fairly brutal commodity price corrections. But the rebound has been quick in the case of gold and can only be around the corner for silver - the two seldom move out of synch for long.

Tipping point
Now we have to look at the supply and demand position to determine whether this could in fact be a tipping point. The downside after a big correction like we have just seen is clearly small or entirely gone.

Gold first: Last week investors queued in the streets of London to buy gold. We have a similar rush in the souks of Dubai. Gold coins are selling at the highest premiums to spot gold price in 30 years, and stocks are running out.

Gold has risen sharply in price this week despite a very sharp rally in the US dollar, lower oil prices and collapsing stock markets. Usually the dollar and gold do not move in the same direction, so this is highly significant. Gold also usually falls with oil.

Bullion premium
In silver the premium paid for bullion bars is up to 50% above the spot price as dealers are running low and demand remains very strong. Why are silver premiums higher than gold: simply because silver stocks are tighter.
This is the classic case of tugging on a piece of elastic fixed to a brick. The pull of the retail price is suddenly going to increase the silver spot price. It just has to as bullion dealers replace their stocks.

We now also have an official enquiry into the shorting of the silver market by two US banks over the summer that crashed the price. No matter that the banks will probably be exonerated. They have removed their short positions - so there is nothing there to prevent silver prices surging ahead.

Supply shrinking
Meanwhile on the supply side things could hardly be better for price rises in precious metals. Central banks are withdrawing planned gold sales while output is falling at the major producers.

Silver stocks have always been tight as unlike gold the metal is consumed by industrial processes; but silver is also a precious metal which tracks gold as 'the poor man's' alternative. Silver production is increasing but only at a snail's pace.

Will silver prices again outperform gold by a factor of two as they have in the 2000s so far? It is not guaranteed but looks a fair assumption. And once stock markets have ceased to fall silver producers look an excellent buy, as will the junior gold exploration companies.

However, if this is not a tipping point for gold and silver prices then it can only be a matter of weeks or a couple of months until we reach one. Mostly likely this is it!

CXC - Issues Convertible Notes (raises $50m, net $40.8m after costs)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=525592

CXC managment have really dropped the ball IMO, a very high cost convertible notes cash raising, at 18.4% of costs are unusually high!

The low convertible price of $1.15, doesn't show much faith in CXC moving forward. (Interest rate at 9 - 12% highlights the risk)

Either more dillution coming up, or the interest costs will ensure dividends aren't paid in a long time.

Also the issuee has a warrant to purchase up to another $25m notes.

I like Gold & Silver going forward, but i'm cooling my interest in CXC.

Bit like OGC, too many issues

[JBmurc]

While many people are coming to see that Mr. Butler’s claims of manipulation are true, one important group still has their heads stuck in the sand. The silver miners are helping the COMEX manipulators by meekly going along with the scam and selling real silver at whatever price the big shorts dictate. Because the price of silver is so far below the cost of production, shareholders of silver mining companies are being hurt very badly.

What can the silver miners do? They should refuse to sell their silver at such low, dumping prices. The cost of production for some miners is $16 an ounce. These miners should not sell below $20 an ounce. Let the silver users go to the COMEX and see how quickly the COMEX is cleaned out. If the miners have contractual agreements to sell silver, they should replace silver production they have to sell with contracts at the phony COMEX price.

Maybe there are miners who are so weak that they can’t hold back from selling silver at a big loss. These miners will go out of business if current low prices continue. But I say they can speak up to the regulators who are currently investigating a silver manipulation.

As a shareholder in Coeur d Alene Corp (CDE), I call on the CEO, Mr. Dennis Wheeler, to set an example for the other silver producers to stand up to those manipulating the price of silver. We should withhold selling the company’s silver production, for one quarter, or buy silver on the COMEX to replace production that must be sold. Let’s see how long the COMEX can sell silver at $10 an ounce.

[macduffy]

Hi JB.
I take it that your last post is mostly a quote from Ted Butler's latest article? Or rather, comment by his colleague.

Must say, as a CXC shareholder, that I agree with both of you!

[JBmurc]

yeah it was thought it was something CXC investors should know if they don't already that Silver has got to go alot higher or the CXC's of the world will stop supply as costs V's profits will demand it.
esp. as the base metal miners that also supply silver are having to close mines on low prices

[shasta]

yeah it was thought it was something CXC investors should know if they don't already that Silver has got to go alot higher or the CXC's of the world will stop supply as costs V's profits will demand it.
esp. as the base metal miners that also supply silver are having to close mines on low prices

JBMurc/Macduffy

A few pages back when i did a mini profit calc, when i found the the actual costs, direct cash costs were reducing to a mere $US2.52/oz (+ $US2.03 royalties & taxes).

A total of $US4.55/oz (allow 10% contingency for costs escalation), & we can assume cash costs around $US5/oz, so even with silver prices between $US9 - $10/oz there's still a reasonable margin.

However there are salaries/admin costs & interest to be accounted for as well.

Still think CXC will do well with $US15/oz Silver & over $US20/oz be earning super profits.

Problem is just like OGC though, when the SP keeps falling what else is going on that we don't know?

[shasta]

JBMurc/Macduffy

A few pages back when i did a mini profit calc, when i found the the actual costs, direct cash costs were reducing to a mere $US2.52/oz (+ $US2.03 royalties & taxes).

A total of $US4.55/oz (allow 10% contingency for costs escalation), & we can assume cash costs around $US5/oz, so even with silver prices between $US9 - $10/oz there's still a reasonable margin.

However there are salaries/admin costs & interest to be accounted for as well.

Still think CXC will do well with $US15/oz Silver & over $US20/oz be earning super profits.

Problem is just like OGC though, when the SP keeps falling what else is going on that we don't know?

With Silver prices around $US9/oz, CXC really is the ugly chick no one wants to dance with :rolleyes:

CXC hit a low today of 70c (now trading around 74.5c), ouch :(

One to watch closely when Silver prices climb back up, but until then :confused:

[JBmurc]

With Silver prices around $US9/oz, CXC really is the ugly chick no one wants to dance with :rolleyes:

CXC hit a low today of 70c (now trading around 74.5c), ouch :(

One to watch closely when Silver prices climb back up, but until then :confused:

Got me 40,000 CXC at 80c av over the last couple days for the long term hold hoping its near its low point(till later today 71.5????) to many bullish factors going forward for silver(checkout link below & CXC once they get full production & costs under control

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1225121146.php

[macduffy]

Interesting article.

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverInvestor/1225460356.php

Makes the point that 70% of silver is mined as a by-product of mining other metals, a lot of which is being curtailed.

;)

[macduffy]

Nice bounce in the CXC SP so far today.

;)

[JBmurc]

Nice bounce in the CXC SP so far today.

;)

Very nice allright about time CXC turned the corner glad to have taken another long at 87.5c got to a 120.5c high today

[JBmurc]

CXC the world's largest primary silver producer.......................................... ....

SILVER PRODUCTION FALLS BY 70%?
by David Morgan
Precious Metals Analyst, www.silver-investor.com
October 31, 2008

This headline should grab anyone’s attention, especially those interested in the silver market. Before going forward, let me explain that fully 70% of silver is produced as a result of mining other metals, mostly base metals. Copper mining, for example, is responsible for 28% of the silver mined in 2007. Lead/Zinc mining yielded 32% of the silver mined in 2007. Finally, gold mining brought about 10% of the silver mined, again in 2007. All data is from GFMS World Silver Survey 2008, page 31.

The point is, with the current low prices for all of the base metals, many companies that produce them are slowing, closing, or stopping projects. The result is obvious: the overall production of silver from base metal and even gold mining is going to be reduced because of current economic conditions. Will this bring down silver production by the 70% mentioned in my “yellow journalism” headline? Of course not, but my headline builds awareness that a slowdown in global mining activity is not necessarily going to flood the market with silver; quite the contrary, slowing mining activity slows the amount of silver produced.

As far as primary silver producers are concerned, some will be unprofitable at these levels, and all will be looking to find as much high-grade ore as possible, to stay as close to profitable as can be expected. Some marginal projects will be shelved and some projects may be forced to close if prices remain in the doldrums.

The overall mining equities have been completely devastated, as all of us in this sector know, and the prices of these stocks have dropped to levels that few can believe. The earnings of these companies will of course be falling as well, due to the fall in their respective products.

As of the week ending October 24, 2008, the year-to-date results are as follows:

Copper -44%
Zinc -54%
Lead -55%
Silver -37%
Gold -12%
XAU -59%
HUI -59%

Across the board, both the metals and mining shares have been blasted. The base metals fare worse than both silver and gold, and the basket of precious metals stocks (as per the XAU and HUI) are doing worse than any metal cited. Again, we find silver at this point in time being not as precious as gold, but more precious than its base metal cousins.

There is some encouragement, as the past few days in the metals markets have shown some strength as interest rates were cut on the U.S. dollar. The gold/silver ratio has backed off from being over 85 recently to 77. Perhaps the worst is over, perhaps not.

I could not help looking further into the GFMS Survey since pulling it off the shelf for this week’s article, and found the following.

For those who are historically inclined, the GFMS World Silver Survey 2008, page 58, discusses the main uses of silver. Under the classification of coins we find,

“Historically, silver was more widely used in coinage than gold, being in greater supply and of less value, thus being practical for everyday payments. Most nations were on a silver standard until the late 19th century with silver coin forming the main circulating currency. But after the gold rushes, the silver standard increasingly gave way to gold. Silver was gradually phased out of regular coinage . . . .”

Yes, silver coinage stopped in 1965, the U.S. closed the gold window in 1971, and here we are today looking at a financial system that has certainly lost its way.

Note: This weekly missive will not be available for the next two weeks, as this writer will be in Europe speaking about precious metals under the current economic conditions.

[shasta]

Time to review & revise some of the calculations & assumptions...:D

Shares on Issue: approx 550m

Current Share Price: $A1.06 (Market Cap ~$A0.6b)

Approx cash on hand* @ 30 Sept = $US120m (from quarterly figures)

*Including cash equivalents

My FY09 Assumptions:

Gross Profit Margin for Silver of $US5.0/oz (incl royalties & taxes)

Gross Profit Margin for Gold of $US200/oz

$US0.75 = $A1

From the recent presentation, suggests FY 09 production (all mines) of 22m/oz of Silver, & 140k/oz Gold.

Total overall expenses (netting off interest rec'd), say $A100m**

** Note, Exploration costs are no longer being expensed, & after review of FY07 costs plus nominal increase of approx $A40m

Silver Revenue:

22m ounces @ $US5.0/oz margin = $US110m ($A146m)

Gold Revenue:

140k ounces @ $US200/oz margin = $US28m ($A37m)

Gross Profit ($146m + $37m) = $A183m - $A100m total costs

Net profit before tax of $A83m (lets ignore tax, assuming c/f losses)

EPS 83m/550m = 0.15 or 15cps

P/E Ratio 1.06/15 = 7.07

As you can see CXC is directly exposed to the POS & POG, plus the $US.

I believe my figures are conservative, but as always DYOR!

Assumptions changed:

USD/AUD from 90c to 75c

Silver gross margin from $US7.5/oz to $US5.0/oz

Gold gross margin from $US300/oz to $US200/oz

Indirect costs raised from $A80m to $A100m

The drop in the $USD has effectively offset the reduced margins!

CXC still looks "cheap", but some hedge exposure & has written off development costs that will be capitalised in future...

If Silver takes off, i'll be all over CXC :D

[shasta]

Time to review & revise some of the calculations & assumptions...:D

Shares on Issue: approx 550m

Current Share Price: $A1.06 (Market Cap ~$A0.6b)

Approx cash on hand* @ 30 Sept = $US120m (from quarterly figures)

*Including cash equivalents

My FY09 Assumptions:

Gross Profit Margin for Silver of $US5.0/oz (incl royalties & taxes)

Gross Profit Margin for Gold of $US200/oz

$US0.75 = $A1

From the recent presentation, suggests FY 09 production (all mines) of 22m/oz of Silver, & 140k/oz Gold.

Total overall expenses (netting off interest rec'd), say $A100m**

** Note, Exploration costs are no longer being expensed, & after review of FY07 costs plus nominal increase of approx $A40m

Silver Revenue:

22m ounces @ $US5.0/oz margin = $US110m ($A146m)

Gold Revenue:

140k ounces @ $US200/oz margin = $US28m ($A37m)

Gross Profit ($146m + $37m) = $A183m - $A100m total costs

Net profit before tax of $A83m (lets ignore tax, assuming c/f losses)

EPS 83m/550m = 0.15 or 15cps

P/E Ratio 1.06/15 = 7.07

As you can see CXC is directly exposed to the POS & POG, plus the $US.

I believe my figures are conservative, but as always DYOR!

Assumptions changed:

USD/AUD from 90c to 75c

Silver gross margin from $US7.5/oz to $US5.0/oz

Gold gross margin from $US300/oz to $US200/oz

Indirect costs raised from $A80m to $A100m

The drop in the $USD has effectively offset the reduced margins!

CXC still looks "cheap", but some hedge exposure & has written off development costs that will be capitalised in future...

If Silver takes off, i'll be all over CXC :D

CXC - Sept Quarterly

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=528091

[Archer]

hi shasta - have taken a small position this am - silver supplies will run low in 2009 .Good work on the nos. A

[shasta]

hi shasta - have taken a small position this am - silver supplies will run low in 2009 .Good work on the nos. A

Thanks, just have to work out exactly where the $US700b will be spent...

You gotta think it's commodities that will do alright, & so i expect oil to go higher, as will gold & silver (hopefully Uranium too!).

When it will run, thats the question!

[macduffy]

Interesting article here.

http://www.compareshares.com.au/zeal64.php

Bottom line message is that silver follows and magnifies movements in the price of gold. At least, that's how I read it!

;)

Re-reading the article, it sounds a bit like the author trying to justify his past recommendations to buy silver stocks?

[peat]

While analysis confirms what he says , fundamentally , he misses the industrial component completely. To me silver is even more of a commodity than gold because like oil corn and coffee, people actually want it to use it and it gets consumed. Gold is just something to hoard with no actual use - every oz ever mined is still in existence.

[JBmurc]

While analysis confirms what he says , fundamentally , he misses the industrial component completely. To me silver is even more of a commodity than gold because like oil corn and coffee, people actually want it to use it and it gets consumed. Gold is just something to hoard with no actual use - every oz ever mined is still in existence.

-And thats why there is less Silver above ground than Gold and in time we prob will see producers struggle to find more silver below ground ,just see how many Gold companies V's Silver producers & explorers are round these days 100:1
CXC being the #1 primary silver producer you can buy on the ASX
the other only one MMN now in admin
many Base metal miners which produced alot of the world's silver now also slowing & closing operations till prices rise alot.

Now with the Gold Vs Silver ratio at 78:1 even if Gold doesn't go much higher Silver should make up alot of ground on gold my pick is closer to the old time ratio of 10:1
there is also good reason why Silver could well be worth more than gold one day hard to believe but just read the link below
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2003/0718.html

[shasta]

-And thats why there is less Silver above ground than Gold and in time we prob will see producers struggle to find more silver below ground ,just see how many Gold companies V's Silver producers & explorers are round these days 100:1
CXC being the #1 primary silver producer you can buy on the ASX
the other only one MMN now in admin
many Base metal miners which produced alot of the world's silver now also slowing & closing operations till prices rise alot.

Now with the Gold Vs Silver ratio at 78:1 even if Gold doesn't go much higher Silver should make up alot of ground on gold my pick is closer to the old time ratio of 10:1
there is also good reason why Silver could well be worth more than gold one day hard to believe but just read the link below
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2003/0718.html

JBMurc

SVL is a Silver explorer, & i think MAR has some Silver exposure?

[JBmurc]

JBMurc

SVL is a Silver explorer, & i think MAR has some Silver exposure?

they producing or have large cash balance ?

[shasta]

they producing or have large cash balance ?

No & No.

They have a tight share register, not many shares...

Options expire at the end of November (well out of the money)

Recently withdrew a SPP, & refunded all monies...

It's a micro company, with an estimated (non jorc) 4.5m/oz resource...

One to watch later next year, especially if Silver goes ballistic

[shasta]

No & No.

They have a tight share register, not many shares...

Options expire at the end of November (well out of the money)

Recently withdrew a SPP, & refunded all monies...

It's a micro company, with an estimated (non jorc) 4.5m/oz resource...

One to watch later next year, especially if Silver goes ballistic

CXC - For all you silver nuts :D

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=533259

[shasta]

CXC - For all you silver nuts :D

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=533259

CXC - San Bartolome Update

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=533428

[shasta]

CXC - San Bartolome Update

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=533428


Silver at $11.31/oz & CXC looking a bit healthier too...

Finished up 31c (+25%) to close at $1.55

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/imageChart.axd?s=CXC&pi=Stock&ct=3&tf=D6&ovs=XJO&si=Index&tima1=20&tima2=20&bi=9&bima=0&comt=index&ds=CXC&dovs=XJO&val=1&stmp=20081218172035853

[macduffy]

Hi shasta.

Yes, CXC looking a bit healthier but a long way to go to get back to my average entry price.
By the way, what charting software are you using here? I may have to invest in something myself - and learn how to use it!

;)

[shasta]

Hi shasta.

Yes, CXC looking a bit healthier but a long way to go to get back to my average entry price.
By the way, what charting software are you using here? I may have to invest in something myself - and learn how to use it!

;)

I pinched it off the asx site, in the company research area. :D

Normally i use Direct Broking (nice of them to allow non clients to use it for free), or else stockness (not as good.)

ASB Sec who i do use have simple charts as well.

[macduffy]

Right. Got it now!
Looks like ASX have upgraded their charting since I last looked!

:D

[shasta]

Right. Got it now!
Looks like ASX have upgraded their charting since I last looked!

:D

CXC up nearly 19% (+24.5c) to close at $1.545 today :confused:

Now CXC were up 3% on the NYSE & the PoS was up a mere 3c overnight

Anyone able to update me as to why?

Technically looking good, so are traders all over it again?

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/imageChart.axd?BI=2&COMT=index&OVS=XJO&TF=D6&TIMA1=20&TIMA2=20&s=CXC

[AMR]

Seems like something is in the winds...volume still looking rather uninspiring though.

[shasta]

Seems like something is in the winds...volume still looking rather uninspiring though.

Thanks AMR

As you will know, i'm more a fundamental investor than trader, so haven't had the need to buy proper software.

I'm learning about candles though (cheers drillfix for the pdf's ;))

[macduffy]

For some time now I've been looking for a gold stock to buy and for various reasons havn't got too enthusiastic about any of them. So I decided to have another look at CXC as a silver stock with a sideline in gold.
The presentation of 4 December 2008 provides food for thought.

- 37.5% of CXC reserves are gold. Presumably based on value.

- company expects 63% increase in Ag production growth in 2009 - to 20m oz.

- and expects 100% increase in Au production growth to 90,000 oz.

- New San Bartolome mine is operational.

- New Palmarejo mine, the largest primary silver mine in the world is on budget and on schedule to commence production in March, 2009 with fully capacity expected in Q2 '09.

- Production at Cerro Bayo to recommence in 2010.

Now I expect there will be a bit of slippage in these volumes and dates - isn't there always ? - but I reckon I'll add a few more CXC to my holding while I ponder which gold stock to buy.

http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/86...%204%202008.pdf


;)

[Archer]

am quietly confident re CXC as well - but re gold any thought of buying the actual physical stuff? A :)

[macduffy]

am quietly confident re CXC as well - but re gold any thought of buying the actual physical stuff? A :)

Thought of it often but after a lifetime of investing in equities and fixed interest I find the prospect of purchase, custody, insurance etc a bit daunting.
So the physical stuff is not for me but I can see the attraction for others.

[Archer]

Thought of it often but after a lifetime of investing in equities and fixed interest I find the prospect of purchase, custody, insurance etc a bit daunting.
So the physical stuff is not for me but I can see the attraction for others.

accepted - but the certificates from the Perth mint mean you don't have to actually handle it. A

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Archer there was a company that said that in the 1980's and when people wanted to collect the cupboard was bare

[airedale]

The name...Ray Smith...comes to mind.
What is the markup or margin on buying and selling of physical gold?

[macduffy]

The name...Ray Smith...comes to mind.
What is the markup or margin on buying and selling of physical gold?

One would hardly lump said gentleman in the same category as the Perth Mint. Owned by the WA Govt ? Or has someone cornered the name?

[shasta]

One would hardly lump said gentleman in the same category as the Perth Mint. Owned by the WA Govt ? Or has someone cornered the name?

CXC - receives $20.4m exercise of warrants :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=537136

CXC - Receives $80m royalty :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CXC&E=ASX&N=537137

[Archer]

Archer there was a company that said that in the 1980's and when people wanted to collect the cupboard was bare

so many cupboards are going to be bare soon - I'm sticking with CXC though and no, not the Perth Mint right now - too expensive for a worthwhile punt now - a few years ago was good though. A

[Ish]

Thinking of getting in on this one, but waiting for the price to dip a bit as it has surged in recent days. I suppose when there is a bad market day it will fall a bit.

[AMR]

How are issues with the sovereign risk going? I spent an hour trawling through the older posts here and someone mentioned a spat with the Bolivian government?

I will keep charting CXC but I believe it is still in a long term downtrend.

[shasta]

How are issues with the sovereign risk going? I spent an hour trawling through the older posts here and someone mentioned a spat with the Bolivian government?

I will keep charting CXC but I believe it is still in a long term downtrend.

Silver is very much on the up, & that will govern where CXC goes...

You tried to buy physical silver in NZ?

Not easy unless you wanna pay up & wait :confused:

[macduffy]

Not everything is rosy as far as CXC is concerned.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=77500&sn=Detail

But I'm holding fast!

:cool:

[macduffy]

Spot silver looking good at USD12-50.

http://www.infomine.com/investment/metalschart.asp?c=silver&u=oz&submit1=Display+Chart&x=usd&r=3m

[Ish]

Has anyone here looked into CXC lately? I'm very tempted with the rising silver prices.

[Mick100]

Has anyone here looked into CXC lately? I'm very tempted with the rising silver prices.


Looking very undervalued at the moment
-Paljamaro coming on stream this quarter
-Low cost producer
-will be making good momey at current silver price
-positive benifits of weak currecies (relative to USD) of countries in which CXC has operations

Definately a bargain - should be around $4.00 - 5.00 this time next yr

[shasta]

Has anyone here looked into CXC lately? I'm very tempted with the rising silver prices.

Ish

Have a look at the numbers i ran back on page 5.

When you consider the $USD/AUD is now well below the 0.90 i used, there's plenty more upside...

Silver just has to behave!

[AMR]

Chart wise it is still in a downtrend but approaching the buy area.

The price needs to break the blue trendline. So far we have not had much volume movement.

[Ish]

Ish

Have a look at the numbers i ran back on page 5.

When you consider the $USD/AUD is now well below the 0.90 i used, there's plenty more upside...

Silver just has to behave!

Very true re behaving! the first few months of the year are usually the best for silver and gold so I think with the current price of silver at $14.50ish and constantly rising i feel its a good bet.. not a sure thing but a good bet.

[macduffy]

Solid fourth quarter result from CXC but the most encouraging aspect is their expectation of a 66% increase in silver production in 2009 and an 85% increase in gold production as the new mines come on stream.

;)

[Ish]

Well I'm on board.

Quite comforted that they seem to think they have enough cash to carry out all the development and operating costs in 09.

[Ish]

Just checked Kitcosilver.com and CDE is up 33.5% today! (Coeur traded on NYSE)

I guess a lot of the shorts must have got worried and closed their positions off pushing the price that much higher.

Look for CXC to explode once the ASX opens

[macduffy]

Just checked Kitcosilver.com and CDE is up 33.5% today! (Coeur traded on NYSE)

I guess a lot of the shorts must have got worried and closed their positions off pushing the price that much higher.

Look for CXC to explode once the ASX opens

Some commentary here.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/markets/gold-silver-leap-on-fed-move-20090320-93lf.html

[Ish]

I read about that yesterday, and it does explain the large jump in the price of gold and silver, however the next best performing silver company has only appreciated 20%

This makes me think some of CDE's rediculously large short position has decided to abandon their quest.

[trackers]

Does indeed look like its going to explode today, looking at an entry (but not too hopeful that I'll get it). Last trade at 96c, will open around 1.05?

[JBmurc]

Does indeed look like its going to explode today, looking at an entry (but not too hopeful that I'll get it). Last trade at 96c, will open around 1.05?

I'd say it open alot higher CDE:NYSE was up 33.85% overnight CXC will follow this strength 20% min IMHO

[Ish]

Does indeed look like its going to explode today, looking at an entry (but not too hopeful that I'll get it). Last trade at 96c, will open around 1.05?

I'd say your best bet to get in cheaply will be to 'buy at market' right at open as I expect it will take a while to reflect the full change in price.

However, given it's such a large increase this will undoubtedly attract a lot of interest and its hard to say what will happen.

[kanejones]

Will we see a rally at the close??

[Ish]

Will we see a rally at the close??

Holding HGD VPE CXC

^ I hope your shares go up ;)

[kanejones]

Holding HGD VPE CXC

^ I hope your shares go up ;)

I noticed that as I posted. Likewise to you :D

[kanejones]

Nice move on opening :)

[AMR]

Trendline broken? Initial target would be the 200ema, at around 1.80.

[Ish]

Expect huge movement today.

up 25% on NYSE to follow yesterdays gains

[macduffy]

And we're not disappointed.

Up almost 15% at the moment. Even went a bit higher.

:cool:

[macduffy]

CXC SP is up 24.5c (16%) this morning!

The PoS has been firm for a few days but this seems a bit extreme.

Any ideas out there?

[Mick100]

CXC SP is up 24.5c (16%) this morning!

The PoS has been firm for a few days but this seems a bit extreme.

Any ideas out there?

up 23% in the US last friday

[macduffy]

up 23% in the US last friday

So I guess the real question is " Why was it up 23% in the US last Friday? "

Some speculation on another forum that it's short covering.

[macduffy]

CXC up another healthy 18% so far today after a 14% rise overnight in the US.

Great excitement! I'm almost back to evens with this one!

;)

[AMR]

Trendline broken? Initial target would be the 200ema, at around 1.80.

For the want of a limit order, the entry was lost.

For the want of an entry, the retest was lost.

For the want of a retest, the trend was lost.

FFF***CCCKKK!

[JBmurc]

:( and to think I had a large shareholding in the 70c level

[macduffy]

CXC report the expected big jump in quarterly production.

Market duly impressed and SP up 6.9% today to $2-16.

;)

[macduffy]

I note that Coeur have announced what the Yanks call a "reverse 1 for 10 share split" but what the rest of us - speaking in conventional English - would call a " 10 for 1 share consolidation". I believe that there is some rule that doesn't allow a security on the (US) Exchange to trade below $1 for more than a limited period, hence the need to consolidate the shares.
It will be interesting to see if a SP for CXC of around $18-60, rather than $1-86 has any impact on trading, for good or otherwise.


;)

[Archer]

Well the company are saying it would be more attractive to institutional investors reducing costs etc-leading to increased liquidity -but will also have the opposite effect on speculators - but then I guess that's a good thing if you're loking at it as an investmentas opposed to quick buck. A

[macduffy]

CXC executive is bullish on PoS.

http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=84191&sn=Detail

;)

[Lego_Man]

I hold a package of this as my silver exposure after i sold out of CCU (couldnt be arsed with the capital raising).

I follow the US-listed stock (CDE) on yahoo finance sometimes and some interesting comments emerge on the message board. After the share consolidation the returns showed as some ridiculously large amount, leading some to think their investment had jumped 1000% overnight. Apparently a couple of them quit their jobs thinking they'd won huge...

Despite the fact that the forum seems to be full of morons, there's quite a lot of antipathy towards CXC management, particularly CEO Wheeler who seems to be to CXC shareholders what that Kate Hobbs is to Drillfix. I've ignored the comments of disgruntled longtermers and downrampers but remain ready to pull the exit trigger at the first sign of trouble.

One of the question marks remains the Kensington project lawsuit which is currently in front of the US Supreme Court. Decision will be huge for the share price, one way or the other. Off the top of my head Coeur were granted a consent of some sort for their tailings setup by the US Army Corp of Engineers, but some greenies have taken them to court on the basis that the permit conflicts with some environmental act and should be overturned. Coeur won originally, greenies one on appeal, now its gone to the final showdown. Decision due quite soon i think...

[macduffy]

If I seem unduly bullish on CXC and silver generally, it's because I hold a few CXC!

http://www.sharecafe.com.au/dreck.asp?a=AV&ai=13096

[Lego_Man]

*Insert ramp here*

I'm giving this baby a month to step up, if it cant shine with silver exploding...time to look at other options.

[Lego_Man]

What in god's name went wrong today?

CXC plummeted almost 20%, crashing right through my stop which was tight at 1730.

That was a burn, i got traded out at 1603...

[macduffy]

What in god's name went wrong today?

CXC plummeted almost 20%, crashing right through my stop which was tight at 1730.

That was a burn, i got traded out at 1603...

I was under the impression that trading in CXC was suspended these last few days and didn't resume on a post consolidation basis until 10 June.
Presumably its been trading on a "deferred settlement" basis. But what code?

:confused:

I see it dropped nearly 6% in the States overnight.

[Lego_Man]

CXCDA

:confused:

[AMR]

Looks like you got stop-fished.

[Lego_Man]

So essentially what you're saying happened is that someone kited the price down with a bunch of low-volume trades, thus triggering a whole bunch of stops, which drove the price down crazily until sanity was restored later in the day?

[hal]

From what I can tell the price relates directly to the U.S. price of their american share.

The code is CDE and this has reacted to the silver drop over the previous few days. I think it was down over 5% 2 days in a row. Silver was up overnight but CDE was still down a little bit.

We might have to wait a little while for the market to wake up to how their projects are going.

[macduffy]

Yes, CXC obviously follows movements in CDE in the States but that doesn't account for the huge 20% drop that Lego Man was unlucky enough to be on the wrong end of.
Dual listed stocks are always subject to arbitrage of course, particularly relatively thinly traded ones, but I think AMR's explanation is pretty close to the mark on this occasion.


;)

[Lego_Man]

Yeah you have to cop it on the chin - TBH i'm not too unhappy about being out as it's looking shaky technically now. The extra 10% haircut doesnt feel too good though, but **** happens.

[macduffy]

There was some good news from Coeur yesterday with the US Supreme Court affirming its previously issued permit for the tailings facility for the Kensington gold mine in Alaska.
This is very significant for Coeur who reckon the potential 125,000 oz annual production represents a 135% increase over current gold production levels.

CXC SP has responded today with a 47c increase, up 3.3% to $14.67.

:)

[macduffy]

Coeur have announced that they have reduced debt by $150m (37%) since January.
It looks like the combination of higher production and the PoS is starting to bear fruit. Hasn't stopped CXC SP participating fully in today's downer on the ASX, however. :(

[Lego_Man]

And if Silver tests 12 bucks we might see it continue to get pounded?

However, when this does rebound, all hell will break loose. Fundamentals bar POS are looking better than at any stage in the last 18 months. Just a matter of getting in close to the bottom...

[macduffy]

The way the CXC SP gyrates they're just as likely to go up as down, if the PoS tests $12!

:D

[macduffy]

Coeur has sold back the silver interests in Perilya's Broken Hill mine for USD55m, originally bought for USD36.9m in September, 2005.

While Coeur has put a positive spin on this - "the proceeds will be used to reduce debt and progress the Kensington gold mine" - my guess is that the original sale agreement included an option which Perilya is now exercising and which Coeur would probably have preferred that they didn't.

;)

[macduffy]

Coeur has sold back the silver interests in Perilya's Broken Hill mine for USD55m, originally bought for USD36.9m in September, 2005.

While Coeur has put a positive spin on this - "the proceeds will be used to reduce debt and progress the Kensington gold mine" - my guess is that the original sale agreement included an option which Perilya is now exercising and which Coeur would probably have preferred that they didn't.

;)

As I suspected, the original hedge agreement was very favourable to Coeur.

USD2 per oz!

Oh, well.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25792677-5005200,00.html

[macduffy]

Good to see CXC participating in the market's general uptrend recently.

A firm PoS is the reason of course but perhaps the market is also starting to take notice of the significantly higher production of silver, and gold, forecast for the current year.

;)

[Lego_Man]

Good to see CXC participating in the market's general uptrend recently.

A firm PoS is the reason of course but perhaps the market is also starting to take notice of the significantly higher production of silver, and gold, forecast for the current year.

;)

Earnings to come out overnight should be interesting.

[macduffy]

Earnings to come out overnight should be interesting.

Yes, an impressive second quarter result:

- 74% increase in silver production to 2nd quarter record 4.3moz.

- 46% increase in revenue to all-time high of $73m.

- debt down 37%

The big new mines San Bartolome in Bolivia and Palmarejo, Mexico contributed 58% of production.

:cool:

[macduffy]

..........and the PoS keeps firming!

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25900106-36418,00.html

:cool:

[macduffy]

... and Coeur up 10.4% in the States last night as the PoS sits at a twelve month high!

;)

[macduffy]

Coeur to expand operations at their Rochester, Nevada, gold and silver mine.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20091006/pdf/31l5155bg392g3.pdf

US market liked the news. CDE (CXC) SP up 8.8% on the day.


:)

[macduffy]

Production from the new mines is starting to make an impact!

86% increase in silver production over 3Q09 to 5.2m oz.

Record revenue of $89.3m, a 146% increase but this includes asset sales. More to the point, operating cash flow of $23m increased 35% over 2Q10.

http://money.aol.com/rtn/pr/coeurand-x2019-s-new-mines-lead-to-record-production-and-revenue-aided-by-continued-strong-silver-and-gold-prices/rfid267823545?channel=pf

:cool:

[COLIN]

Production from the new mines is starting to make an impact!

86% increase in silver production over 3Q09 to 5.2m oz.

Record revenue of $89.3m, a 146% increase but this includes asset sales. More to the point, operating cash flow of $23m increased 35% over 2Q10.

http://money.aol.com/rtn/pr/coeurand-x2019-s-new-mines-lead-to-record-production-and-revenue-aided-by-continued-strong-silver-and-gold-prices/rfid267823545?channel=pf

:cool:
Announcement didn't seem to do much for the share price, though. Perhaps effect is being blunted by the strong Aus. dollar, do you think?
(Haven't checked yesterday's movement in the States).

[macduffy]

Announcement didn't seem to do much for the share price, though. Perhaps effect is being blunted by the strong Aus. dollar, do you think?
(Haven't checked yesterday's movement in the States).

CDE finished 1.5% down in NY last night so clearly the market wasn't overly impressed!

I guess it's a case of good results being fully (overly?) anticipated.

[COLIN]

CDE finished 1.5% down in NY last night so clearly the market wasn't overly impressed!

I guess it's a case of good results being fully (overly?) anticipated.

Monday should be a better day. Gold has broken thru 1100 and silver should shine!

[macduffy]

Here's a bullish view on the short term outlook for silver.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=0EA49569-EE2A-E394-33845B17FA607ADA

:cool:

[COLIN]

Dragonz: This is the thread to which I referred (under "GIR").

[macduffy]

CXC getting some traction at last as silver looks increasingly attractive.

CXC SP up 8% today.

[macduffy]

Discussion here from The Motley Fool on CDE - CXC's US listing.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/05/12/3-stocks-springing-back.aspx

I hold.

[macduffy]

An article on Coeur's deal to sell gold concentrates from its new Kensington mine to Chinese interests.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/8209/china-to-purchase-gold-concentrates-from-coeur-dalene-mines--8209.html

[macduffy]

Encouraging report from Coeur.

"Coeur Posts Record Quarterly Sales and Operating Cash Flow as Its New Kensington Gold Mine Joins Company's Two Other New, Long-Life Mines in Production</H1>
Highlights:


•Record metal sales of $101.0 million, 49% higher than last year's second quarter and 15% higher than first quarter
•Record operating cash flow of $32.5 million, 116% higher than last year's second quarter and up from ($9.2) million in first quarter
•Gold production up 68% to 23,124 ounces compared to last year's second quarter
•Silver production up 7% to 4.2 million ounces compared to last year's second quarter
•Kensington ramp-up exceeding plan; plant reaching design capacity; on-target for 2010
•Palmarejo silver and gold production up significantly from last year's second quarter
•San Bartolomé silver production increased 79% while cash operating costs dropped 22% compared to the previous quarter; operations continue to perform according to plan1
•Maintaining overall 2010 production outlook of 17.3 million ounces of silver and approximately 170,000 ounces of gold"

[macduffy]

An encouraging report but a disappointing profit result - again.

This from The Motley Fool:

"Anyone with an eye on precious metal miners knows the saga by now: 82-year-old senior silver producer Coeur d'Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE) was nearly crushed by the combined weight of the 2008 metals correction and a series of setbacks in its aggressive multimine build-out phase.

Since the company moved from the bottom of the heap to near the top of the silver sector virtually overnight, a battalion of battle-weary investors has awaited an overdue reward for their enduring patience, preferably on the company's bottom line. Given the sector's impressive record of recent margin expansion, the second quarter seemed an appropriate time for Coeur d'Alene Mines to deliver significant profitability.

Unfortunately, despite very impressive operational achievements, Coeur posted a second-quarter net loss of $50.7 million, following a painful $42.5 million fair-value adjustment relating to the company's gold royalty obligation (at least 400,000 ounces of the Palmarejo Mine's future production) with royalty specialist Franco-Nevada.

Essentially, the cost of the company's $75 million capital injection, which helped bring Palmarejo into production and ease a major crisis of confidence in the shares, continues to rise alongside the price of gold. Royalty payments in the second quarter raised total cash costs of production by 4% over the cash operating cost of $8.06 per ounce.

As disappointing as that fair-value adjustment is to shareholders waiting for a lift from Coeur d'Alene, this Fool intends to stick around for the long haul. Near-term escalation of production costs causes me little concern, since it's not uncommon among miners executing simultaneous ramp-ups on multiple mines. For the full year 2010, Coeur intends to deliver 17.3 million ounces of silver (with 170,000 ounces of gold).

Coeur is guiding for significant operational improvement over the balance of the year. Part of that improvement will stem from higher-grade ores and improved ore blending procedures at Palmarejo, while the ramp-up underway at the new Kensington gold mine in Alaska will chip in some seriously cost-cutting gold production through the balance of the year.

Production from Palmarejo rose sharply for the month of July, and cash costs plummeted, from the $10.78 recorded in the second quarter to a negative cost (after gold credits) of ($0.97) per ounce. Despite a rough start, Coeur expects the mine's full-year cost to reach just $3 per ounce."

[macduffy]

Coeur is to delist from the ASX before the end of the year but the more I think about it the less I am inclined to quit this stock just now.

The alternative is to apply for conversion back to US listed Coeur stock.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=111388&sn=Detail&pid=34

[COLIN]

Coeur is to delist from the ASX before the end of the year but the more I think about it the less I am inclined to quit this stock just now.

The alternative is to apply for conversion back to US listed Coeur stock.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=111388&sn=Detail&pid=34

I'm in no hurry to sell, either. They have given us plenty of time to consider our options.