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arco
31-05-2004, 10:06 PM
There may be some good short term trading to be had within what appears to be a developing Symmetrical Triangle. I have plotted a possible scenario.


http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/052804_213.gif

arco
24-06-2004, 05:47 PM
Updated chart.

There has been the opportunity of at least 216 pips on this one, with a maximum of 579 so far.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/06232004_789.gif

arco
18-05-2005, 01:57 PM
Brought this thread back into circulation as
EUR.JPY has been mentioned by Xerof on the Chit Chat thread.

I gave this pair as a longer term short on Forextrader.com Forum
14th March after finding a Bearish Bat......(in my charts,
of all places!)

"Top pickers might like to look at this for a possible short.
Bearish Bat parameters have been met, and this is usually a reliable pattern provided we see a reversal signal confirmed at this point.
Knife catchers could try scaling in at circa 140.63".

For some reason I can't get the chart to show, but it can
be accessed on the E/J thread.

http://www.fxtradercenter.com/modules.php?name=Forums&file=download&id=262

Currently there is some support being given by
a Gann level at 134.38

Long Term holders +515 pips at close.

arco

Xerof
18-05-2005, 04:09 PM
I've always marvelled at this pair, but never traded it myself.

But always willing to go into BAT if you post lovely charts like that occasionally Arco

Xerof

peat
18-05-2005, 10:25 PM
so its not all about the dollar after all
i'm now short one on this pair as well.

peat
20-05-2005, 08:01 AM
this never workd so had to bite a bullet on it. :(

arco
01-06-2005, 09:14 AM
Bearish Bat still delivering the goods.

Longer term holders +711 at close.

ATR Trailing stop 135.00

arco
02-06-2005, 09:00 AM
http://htomc.dns2go.com/anim/anim/bat.gif

Bearish Bat still exercising its wings.

Longer term holders +821 at close.

ATR Trailing stop 134.35

peat
02-06-2005, 09:04 AM
[}:)][}:)][}:)]

arco
03-06-2005, 09:48 AM
ATR Trailing stop moved to 134.18

arco
04-06-2005, 09:12 AM
Moving ATR Trailing stop to 133.62

(Max avaiable so far - +902)

arco
07-06-2005, 09:54 AM
Moving ATR Trailing stop down to 132.95

(Max avaiable pips so far - +973)

arco
08-06-2005, 09:17 AM
Moving ATR Trailing stop down to 132.67

(Max avaiable pips so far - +996)

arco
20-06-2005, 03:08 PM
The ATR2 traling stop was hit on the 13th
giving circa 796 pips.

miner
07-07-2005, 08:57 AM
Ok north run last few days,might test 4.29ish?.

arco
07-07-2005, 09:57 AM
Morning Miner

Secondary Gann level at 134.37

If that breaks there is a Butterfly projection
slightly above that circa 135.60 - 135.93

arco

miner
07-07-2005, 10:09 AM
Morning Arco,thanks for that,see how we go today,nice last daily candle.

Cheers
Miner

miner
08-07-2005, 08:01 AM
Well Arco it did test it,out of the pairs I was watching this one looked to be the least affected by last nights goings on.

arco
08-07-2005, 08:44 AM
Good Morning All

I apologise for being 2 pips adrift....it was
all Mr Ganns fault....honest it was guv :D

Xerof
08-07-2005, 09:54 AM
Release the Hounds......

miner
08-07-2005, 01:24 PM
See it turned on the daily trend line,same as eur/usd and usd/chf.

miner
11-07-2005, 08:52 AM
And now testing 4.35 area again,could be worth watching to see if it gets through it today,or gets shorted on it either way could give an ok trade.

miner
11-07-2005, 08:18 PM
And now a double top at .64?

peat
11-07-2005, 09:34 PM
GFT news
[EUR/YEN]'s topside remains capped by the combination of both exporter offers, seen through 134.70-00, and also the expectation of some Japanese bond repatriation flows. These are linked to this week's European Government bond redemptions and coupon payments, in excess of Eur 50bln (France to pay Eur 23.4bln Tuesday, Italy Eur 11.4bln on Friday, along with Holland's Eur 16.9bln), although investor demand for the cross in Tokyo hours contradicts initial market chatter. The technical bias is also positive currently with the break above 134.40 implying a further extension towards 135.50-136.00 is possible before exhaustion within the overall downtrend. Look for this to provide support to Eur/Yen whilst we hold above the 50 day m.a at 133.73.

miner
11-07-2005, 09:41 PM
Thanks for that Peat,like said on other thread nice daily's(trending).

peat
11-07-2005, 09:47 PM
Harry Hindsight says MACD crossed over +ve on Jun 15th at 132.46 (days high)

miner
12-07-2005, 10:26 AM
Long on the trendline again today?.

miner
12-07-2005, 12:35 PM
Might have been that U turn,eur/usd and usd/chf doing the same.

miner
13-07-2005, 11:54 AM
Trendline was on the daily:D;),now if it can get through yesterdays high??,trying it's best;).

miner
13-07-2005, 12:07 PM
Head on zee block if this gets through yesterdays high then long eur/usd and short usd/chf and usd/jpy,last 3 are doing a bit of a U turn now and eur/jpy still testing the high.

They are trendline swapping now on hourly(last 3)

miner
13-07-2005, 06:47 PM
Xerof since you pointed out this pair to me(thanks) I have given it a screen and it is a good one to trade as well as an indicator as to what my other 3 are going to do.

But some days eur/usd goes with it (yesterday) and other days usd/jpy goes with it,so the trick is picking who is following it at any given point in time.

If when you have time any thoughts on this would be good,ta.

Save loosing my head[:0]

Cheers
Miner

miner
19-07-2005, 06:32 PM
A few if's but if usd/jpy keeps going and this one follows it's got some catching up to do.

Example of first thought trading,it did follow and I was long at 5.15 but had a stop 2 lousy pips too tight(was not my usual stop),so due to rule breaking got stopped then didn't go long again duah[B)][B)][B)].

Xerof
19-07-2005, 07:15 PM
Well, for what its worth, I wonder if we have a nice reversal pattern forming here. H&S pattern has traced out, plus a return to the neckline being seen right now on the 1hr chart and (less obvious, but there all the same) on the 4 hr chart.

Haven't looked at this pair for a while but on first glance/first impression, that was what jumped out at me Miner.

Would fit a grind higher in USD/JPY, collapse in EUR/USD scenario

Xerof

peat
19-07-2005, 07:26 PM
xerof i see the pattern but I'll have to play the idiot here and ask reversal from which direction the short term one going down or the medium term one going up.

Xerof
19-07-2005, 07:37 PM
I was only looking at the short term charts. Assuming this neckline resistance holds around 135.10 or so, it should target 132/133 minimum

Maybe a sell here, with a 30 pips s/l?? It could break the neckline resistance, in which case 136.10, then 137 ish come back into play.

Don't send me an invoice for any losses incurred though, I don't profess to be an expert on charts!! but H&S formations are fairly reliable

Xerof

miner
19-07-2005, 07:50 PM
First thoughts I like hence my first thought trading comment the other day,this pair works well with my others,but is doing it's own thing today so to me worth a watch.

As for me I'm doing the 2 minds trader- medium thing again,stops on tho,thanks for your thoughts.

Thought you watched this one more.I like it,usd/jpy needs to hold 60 today tho?..

Cheers
Miner

miner
19-07-2005, 07:54 PM
Put a trendline on from last daily high,action at the mo is on it(well there abouts hehe),so watching which side it goes.

Xerof
19-07-2005, 08:08 PM
Did I say that first thoughts are sometimes followed by second thoughts, hehe

miner
19-07-2005, 08:15 PM
WHAT I put the house on your post[:0][B)]:D;),first thoughts work for me,over think it toast,trick is going with them.

Xerof
19-07-2005, 08:52 PM
:D:D

Germany's ZEW fundamental might have changed the dynamics a bit....but trendline still holding.....on the other hand....but then again.....hehe

Xerof
20-07-2005, 10:52 AM
That worked a treat..not...H&S formations are now officially the most unreliable formations.....esp on 1 hour charts.....

But then, a tight stop and reverse would have you quids in this morning. The old resistance at 136.10 back in focus

Clear from all the EUR crosses that there was demand for EUR agst CHF, JPY and GBP, and this fed into EUR/USD, which saw the swing trade play back to where I indicated on the EUR.USD thread - 1.2020.

Hope the bank doesn't have your house up for mortgagee auction Miner[xx(][xx(]

Xerof

miner
20-07-2005, 01:52 PM
Not me mate,all I managed to do yesterday was yet again break one of my rules and the price was missing some great trades[B)],but didn't get nailed on any,one day I'll play by "all" of my rules and make a few more $$$:D;).

Cheers
Miner

miner
20-07-2005, 02:17 PM
quote:Originally posted by miner

A few if's but if usd/jpy keeps going and this one follows it's got some catching up to do.

Example of first thought trading,it did follow and I was long at 5.15 but had a stop 2 lousy pips too tight(was not my usual stop),so due to rule breaking got stopped then didn't go long again duah[B)][B)][B)].


Oop's hit edit rather than quote last time.

miner
22-07-2005, 07:59 AM
Well last night was the wrong night to get on the booze with me mate[B)],hope someone got the move on this and usd/jpy[?].

slam
22-07-2005, 08:32 AM
morning miner
got most but this one, the biggest mover.
still not complaining;)

miner
22-07-2005, 08:41 AM
Good stuff slam I did my usual first thought set short at 17 when it was bouncing around in the arvo testing it(so short usd/jpy also as go same way) then mate rang to say hole dug come down and shoot the pig(then had to have a drink in the shed in memory of old grunter),so didn't set short:([B)],but never mind as with FX there will always be another trade;).

Now it's pick the next move time,maybe test last nights lows.

slam
22-07-2005, 08:45 AM
PS: miner, rule # 3;)hehe

miner
22-07-2005, 08:51 AM
:DUmm yep ta,next week I promise;).

miner
22-07-2005, 09:01 AM
As it's not next week yet:D,this is a good pair to watch guys,it usually has quiet tidy moves when others can be all over the place,ie look at the tails on say eur/usd and usd/chf daily's lately.

miner
22-07-2005, 02:14 PM
Just encase someone reads my tea leaf FX thoughts hehe,this one yet again has had a tidy day(next is usd/jpy out of the 4 I watch,as it often is),ok so daily and hourly much the same,so put a trendline on both hourlys this morning then look at the 10am hourly,this is when eur/jpy got going but usd/jpy moved on the 9am hourly,so it gave you an hours jump on the eur/jpy move north as they go the same way,so usd/jpy said what eur/jpy was going to do.

The other 2 I watch are messy today but both added to the above a bit also.

Cheers
Miner

miner
01-08-2005, 10:55 PM
quote:Originally posted by miner

As it's not next week yet:D,this is a good pair to watch guys,it usually has quiet tidy moves when others can be all over the place,ie look at the tails on say eur/usd and usd/chf daily's lately.


Put a trend line on the daily for the last 5 days or so,quiet tidy;).

slam
02-08-2005, 04:36 AM
quote:Originally posted by miner


quote:Originally posted by miner

As it's not next week yet:D,this is a good pair to watch guys,it usually has quiet tidy moves when others can be all over the place,ie look at the tails on say eur/usd and usd/chf daily's lately.


Put a trend line on the daily for the last 5 days or so,quiet tidy;).


Or the hourly;)

arco
01-09-2005, 11:54 AM
136.71 is a Gann resistance level to watch
for a possible shorting opportunity.

arco
01-09-2005, 07:34 PM
Just in case anyone is checking this
one out, the intermediate Gann level
may have been broken and no reversal
signal has come yet. Next major Gann
is at 137.50

Watching for now.

miner
01-09-2005, 07:39 PM
Bounced north off daily trendline again today,nice pair this one as often quiet tidy.trend line from 2 previous days that is

Cheers
Miner

Xerof
02-09-2005, 09:49 AM
Anybody else seen the very symmetrical H&S formation on the daily?

Might tie in nicely with what the Major is looking to defend Arco?

Any signs of his men shouldering arms?

Neckline at 133.50 might make it a good r/r trade if one has confidence in either the pattern or Colonel Gann

Xerof

arco
02-09-2005, 10:15 AM
Hello Xerof

Could happen......but you have to be brave.......

Just preparing to SAR around +/-137.45
(Long currently +151) [8D]
I feel a cruise coming on.........

arco

arco
02-09-2005, 09:00 PM
SAR 137.48 with tight stop

arco
05-09-2005, 12:27 PM
Boy, that was a scary stop - coming within 2 pips
of catastrophy at I slumbered blissfully unaware.

But looking OK at the moment + 18 pips , but don't
think we should be too greedy with this retrace.

arco, - refreshed and ready to tackle a
Butterfly Cake ;)

slam
05-09-2005, 02:30 PM
Wouldn't be a reverse eur/jpy butterfly cake would it arco[?]
just looking at the daily, or have I got the wrong end of the wing:)

arco
05-09-2005, 03:40 PM
Hi Slam

Correct,
and as mentioned Friday night "SAR 137.48 with tight stop"

.....meaning sell the long and reverse trade to a short with
a tight stop to protect. In other words - if you are long
1 mill go short 2 mill which reverses the trade.

(SAR = Stop and reverse).

arco

slam
05-09-2005, 03:54 PM
Hi arco
got ya:)
I went short fri at 137.55
Just wait now to see if the gartley turns to a butterfly hey

Thanks for the explain

Cheers
slam

arco
05-09-2005, 08:47 PM
For anyone following the EUR.JPY short trade
I have taken 70 pips.

arco

peat
05-09-2005, 08:57 PM
i was following your journey in spirit arco
well done again!

arco
05-09-2005, 09:05 PM
Whisky?

slam
07-09-2005, 03:09 PM
may have started it's asent to 1.3900ish

slam

arco
07-09-2005, 03:49 PM
Slam

Yes I have gone back in long at 136.90

+ 37 currently

arco

arco
09-09-2005, 09:22 AM
I closed this one off last night at 137.18
for a measly 28 pips. Generally things were
looking a bit messy and with the weekend
ahead I prefer to minimise positions.

slam
14-09-2005, 02:13 PM
To quote arco from GBP Thread "Could be forming a Pennant on the 15m presently"

Dito for this one imo

Xerof
15-09-2005, 12:18 PM
Head and Shoulder formations seem to be the flavour of the day today, so take a look at the EUR/JPY daily chart.

This pair played out a nice H&S during April/May and looks like it might be history repeating. Perhaps a little early to do anything, but would be interested in other thoughts on it.

An early signal to enter from a level which is not too far away might be a breach of the rising trendline, currently sitting around 134.80 level, being part of a larger triangle

It is certainly visually appealing [^][^]

Xerof

arco
15-09-2005, 12:23 PM
I think I have discovered a new patttern....

....its called the Parachute Drop....you can
see one now on EUR.JPY 15m. :D

Bangoes my Mangoes

Xerof
15-09-2005, 12:31 PM
you mean a jump with the parachute still in the plane don't you Arco?

miner
16-09-2005, 12:28 PM
Tidy again today,hourly's.

miner
16-09-2005, 03:44 PM
Peat this one moved first and the tidiest out of my 4 today,so it gave you the jump on the other 3,more so on eur/usd and usd/chf than usd/jpy,might be something that could help in the future?.

Cheers
Miner

miner
22-09-2005, 10:53 AM
Long on trendline from last 2 days this morning,lucky I was at the dentist:(,eur/usd and usd/chf playing follow the leader as they did yesterday,test yesterdays high time now.

arco
28-09-2005, 09:59 AM
Action is playing within a confluence of potential Gartley/Butterfly zones and looks like a reasonable entry point for a possible move north.

1st entry taken @ 135.86 + 22............we'll see how it goes

arco

arco
29-09-2005, 09:36 AM
Patience, patience...........

however, making some minor progress + 32

Possible Gann support 135.94 with Gann resistance above @ 137.50

arco

arco
29-09-2005, 09:23 PM
I closed this position +7 after the Gann was broken in what appeared to be a fast positive move, - although its seems to be creeping back up again now [V]

peat
30-09-2005, 06:29 AM
from my platform news an hour ago

[EUR/JPY] is holding below the now pivotal 200 day m.a. at 136.15, buyers of the earlier break to the 136.42 day's high having been frustrated by Japanese exporters" keenness to sell ahead of Friday's end to the fiscal half-year. As noted earlier speculative Jpy longs could be in for a test if Japanese CPI at 23.30GMT comes in significantly negative. The focus amongst traders has been comments from a range of BOJ speakers recently who have said that Japanese prices are set to begin rising. Initial bids are noted in the 135.50/75 region.

peat
30-09-2005, 07:34 AM
quote:Lars Skriver - Jyskebank
Can the Tankan report on Monday do what a higher Nikkei,
higher bond yields and better economic fundamentals cannot
do? Namely taking the JPY higher across the board and
especially against the EUR. This would be a bit surprising as the
Japanese currency tends to be immune against any fundamental
figures. Could this report for once be the excpetion that
confirms the rule? I doubt it. Though it would suit me fine, as I
keep my entrance level for a new funding position in the JPY
against the EUR around the 133.50 level. A strategy which so far
has failed to pay out. With the risk of repeating myself the key
word for approaching the JPY regarding any funding is
patience. This is especially worth to remember as the EUR/JPY
is tumbling around without having any kind of trend at all.
With the latest positive development on the domestic side in
Japan I guess there must be a few disappointed JPY bulls out
there. This does not include myself. The latest comments of
Suda from BoJ might have given them more appetite as they,
once more, were rather hawkish regarding a change of the
monetary policy in Japan. Too early I would say. Any change of
the current policy takes time in Japan and before this could
happen we need to see the CPI continously spiking higher
taking the economy out it's current deflation. We are not there
yet.
Hence I still see the whereabouts of the EUR/JPY between the
131 and 141, and if The Tankan can boost the JPY, I would use
this as an opportunity to put on a new funding position against
the EUR at the 133.50 level.

arco
30-09-2005, 09:10 AM
Thanks Peat that is very interesting reading.

As mentioned, I got out last night as the action was confused. Best to be out with a small profit and wait for a clear signal. I have placed a limit long at 136.60 because the harmonic patterns are still valid.

arco

arco
18-10-2005, 12:09 PM
Wentlong on the DT line break

Currently +112

Could be some resistance ahead circa 138.84

arco

Xerof
18-10-2005, 12:52 PM
I've been monitoring this one from the other perspective Arco - I'm waiting for a reversal.

Indeed, 138.85 is a resistance level, followed by 139.48, but hoping for higher goals above 140 before the turn

altiora peto ;);)

http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/8503/eurjpy3ig.png

Xerof

Xerof
26-10-2005, 09:55 PM
Arco, are you still long this pair?

Its knock knock knockin' on heavens door at 139.48 trendline, but I don't see any particularly compelling reasons for a turn just yet - maybe we can see it grind on up into the 140 to 142 zone?

Xerof

Xerof
27-10-2005, 07:41 AM
chart update - broke through resistance overnight - 140/141 achievable now

http://img436.imageshack.us/img436/2892/eurjpy2qs.png

Xerof

arco
27-10-2005, 08:28 AM
Morning Xerof

Yes still hanging in.....more to come yet I believe.

arco

Xerof
03-11-2005, 05:10 PM
141.00 achieved, but still no obvious signs of turning. (Hanging in there still Arco?)

142.13 looks like a juicy turn level, but may look to put a trailing stop entry in somewhere this week.

Xerof

Xerof
04-11-2005, 08:53 AM
under 140 this morning - damn - the 1.382ish fib area foiled higher attempts - apologies.

Its only come back to rising T/L so far, so maybe all is not lost

Xerof

Xerof
04-11-2005, 11:08 AM
Well, after NYK close, there's obviously a bearish engulfing candle...

slam
13-01-2006, 04:38 PM
Hi All

H&S on the daily, see if the neck breaks hey;)

Cheers
Slam

Edit: On second look neck has been broken

arco
01-05-2006, 05:24 PM
Waiting in the wings to see what happens at 'b'...
a reversal pattern would be nice.


http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/042906_eur.jpy.gif

arco

peat
01-05-2006, 05:52 PM
i already jumped in short at 143.25 (2PM) and have followed up with USD and GBP shorts against the Yen as well.
Go teh Nippon money!

peat
02-05-2006, 10:50 AM
not really working out well.... , bailing before it goes negative.

arco
03-05-2006, 09:24 AM
Morning All

Short entered last night at 143.63 based
on the previous daily candle - currently +53
.....SL now moved to b/e.

Regards - arco

http://img487.imageshack.us/img487/3884/eurjpy3zm.gif

arco
03-05-2006, 01:29 PM
Tight stop hit @ + 50.

pringy
30-05-2006, 08:14 PM
Does anyone see a nice bearish Gartley as I see on the hourly? :D

Reversal at 143.95?

peat
31-05-2006, 09:37 AM
went too high last nite to conform to the pattern I think but yeh see what you mean - it had the making. where are our experts?

Xerof
31-05-2006, 11:00 PM
Pringy and Peat,

I couldn't resist Peat's taunt (sorry, I have been extraordinarily busy away from the forum community lately)

Your gartley has morphed into a butterfly, with a popular target of 1.272% extension, being around 144.60, but could extend to 161.8%, which I haven't shown. Not entirely convinced but watch action around that level if it gets there


http://img469.imageshack.us/img469/619/eurjpy4tc.png


Xerof (MIA - lol)

miner
27-07-2006, 06:34 PM
This is one I watch,was saying to a mate last night who was around,should be a buy on a dip looking at the daily and the way it is trending,nice dip entry last night.

Cheers
Miner

miner
07-08-2006, 07:36 PM
Nice run on the hourly's today,as with usd/jpy(as they go the same way in general),eur/jpy often is a good one through the day for a nice trend,often from around the change of the daily which is a good time to watch for an entry.

Cheers
Miner

arco
25-10-2006, 05:11 PM
When the Symm Triangle breaks we could see a nice run

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/eur.yen_102506.gif

GTA - arco

miner
03-11-2006, 09:07 AM
Worth watching for a long after the run back up from last nights dip?.

Cheers
Miner

miner
08-11-2006, 12:21 PM
Well was a nice long,anyway arco any update on your Symm Triangle ?.

Cheers
Miner

arco
08-11-2006, 01:46 PM
Hi Miner

Re the Sym Tri.

The upper line was broken by Mondays white candle, and now yesterdays small black is testing the line for change of polarity.

If that holds it indicates EYen could continue north bound in the near future.

regards - arco

miner
08-11-2006, 02:36 PM
Ta for that arco,thought it must be testing the upper line,it's one I watch every day so see how we go,messy today like my other three but they usually warm up at night.

Cheers
Miner

miner
09-11-2006, 09:49 PM
Testing your line tonight arco.

Cheers
Miner

miner
09-11-2006, 11:04 PM
Long at 150.68,see how we go.

Cheers
Miner

peat
10-11-2006, 05:06 AM
yeh i got in at 150.56 once I saw it break, with a tp of 150.99 so 45 pips banked overnite , cheers guys.

miner
10-11-2006, 08:53 AM
Just about woken up,was a late one,to see I am still in,it has topped for the day at 151.48,so arco where would you put a in the money stop?,good you made some pips peat.

Cheers
Miner

miner
10-11-2006, 01:03 PM
Just taken out at 151.19 after moving stop up from 151.15,O well made a few pips.

Cheers
Miner

arco
10-11-2006, 02:30 PM
:D

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/eur.yen_111006.gif

peat
10-11-2006, 03:13 PM
shouldnt the target for this breakthrough be quite large given the length of the compression phase. I can see its pulled back now, but just wondering if this gives us a new chance to reenter....

arco
10-11-2006, 04:39 PM
Hi Peat

Yes, it certainly looks that way.

As a matter of interest. Ichimoku Monthly gave a buy signal 4472 pips ago, and neither the daily, weekly or monthly Ichi charts show signs of a reversal signal as yet. Therefore a scaling in off the fib retracements might work.

regards - arco


A little light weekend reading..................

A farewell to zero by Hisane Masaki

TOKYO - The countdown has begun to the Japanese central bank's exit from years of ultra-loose, near-zero-interest-rate monetary policy, amid growing signs of a recovery taking root and chronic deflation finally releasing its grip on the world's second-largest economy.

The Bank of Japan's departure from its so-called "quantitative easing" policy, possibly as early as next week and probably by the end of April at the latest, is widely seen as a foregone conclusion. So the biggest questions now are: Exactly when will the BOJ make the move? And what will come next?

BOJ governor Toshihiko Fukui has suggested for a while that the end to the quantitative easing policy is coming soon. In his strongest signal to that effect, Fukui told an upper house committee of the diet, Japan's parliament, on last Thursday that he hopes "immediately" to end quantitative easing once the conditions for doing so are met.

Under the present policy, which was introduced in March 2001, the BOJ flooded Japanese financial markets with excess cash in the hope of encouraging lending, while anchoring short-term interest rates near zero. The BOJ has vowed that it will stick to the policy until deflation (a continuous decline in prices), which has long plagued the Japanese economy, is beaten. Deflation has acted as a drag on the economy by eroding corporate earnings and paychecks. Fukui, who took the BOJ helm in March 2003, has won the confidence of the markets largely by being seen as more firmly committed than his predecessor, Masaru Hayami, to quelling deflation.

The BOJ has set three conditions for ending the quantitative easing policy:
Year-on-year changes in the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile prices of fresh foods, must remain stable above zero.
BOJ board members must be convinced that deflation will not return.
There should be no other factors that warrant keeping the loose monetary settings in place.

The BOJ has not always done a stand-up job in fulfilling its mission. In August 2000, it announced an end to its zero-interest-rate policy, which had been in place since February 1999, and raised interest rates too early. This, coupled with the bursting of the information-technology bubble in the United States, plunged the Japanese economy back into recession. In the face of a barrage of criticism, the BOJ restored the zero-interest-rate policy and introduced the quantitative easing as a main tool to steer its monetary policy.

This time around, however, the BOJ is more confident of its policy shift. Concerns over Japanese financial institutions have eased significantly as the once-huge mountains of bad bank loans returned to normal levels. Major companies have cleared away the excess debts, equipment and labor that had weighed on their fortunes, and are expected to log record profits for the current fiscal year ending this month. The BOJ has been increasingly encouraged by recent upbeat economic data showing that Japan has finally emerged from the decade of stagnation that ensued after the "bubble economy" burst in the early 1990s.

Industrial output in 2005 posted its highest level since 2000. In a preliminary report on Tuesday, the government said industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in January from the previous month, the sixth straight monthly increase. The January output index stood at its highest level since 2000.

Unemployment declined for the third year in a row in 2005, to 4.4% from 4.7% in 2004, with the December figure down 0.2 percentage point from November's 4.6%. In December, the number of job offers and job seekers matched for the first time in more than 13 years. Amid the impr

peat
10-11-2006, 05:31 PM
I'm not sure that article helps me go long Eur vs Yen , but at this stage thats what the graph looks like, so I'm in again at 151.22. Tight stop tho.
When JPY appreciation does come, after the fear of further deflation is defused it could be massive turnaround. Jyske bank have been talking about this for ages (and getting it wrong as they short these JPY crosses) but one day I suspect they will be right.

arco
10-11-2006, 06:37 PM
Evening Peat

I try not to let outside influences affect my charting logic, otherwise I will be lost.

I always remember that old quote.

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

- Keynes

e.g. Whats to stop EuroYen going to 155?

Anyway, the answer for me is always the chart. If I base my decisions off that one thing I can work on a logical trading system with set rules.

The chart rules - long live the chart.

Have a great weekend

arco

arco
11-11-2006, 07:57 AM
Spotted this...not that it makes any difference in a charting sense, but its interesting none the less.

Asked about carry trades, in which investors borrow cheaply in yen and use the funds to invest in higher-yielding currencies, Fukui said the BOJ was cautious about the risk of a sharp unwinding of the trades when the market's expectations of interest rates change.
He said the yen's low interest rates are helping to swell the carry trade and his staff is still trying to determine how big the phenomenon has grown.
"If the size is very big and expectations for (global) interest rate movements change suddenly, there are substantial risks of a sharp unwinding that could cause various distortions, so we are watching this with vigilance," Fukui said. "We need to communicate with markets to make sure they don't find our monetary policy a surprise."
The yen carry trade has been cited as a factor behind the yen's recent weakness, as players sell their borrowed yen to buy other currencies.
The yen edged slightly higher against the dollar and the euro after Fukui's comments on the carry trade, which came as the Japanese currency was trading near a record low against the euro.

miner
13-11-2006, 09:04 AM
Hi Peat

As Arco says often best just to do your own thing,as for me if I read what other people think it just puts there thoughts numbers in my head,I could be reading FXCM's charting picks but don't as my system works well so just stick to it and do what my system tells me.

Like eur/jpy will probably be a long again but on Friday my system said sit on your hands if looking for a long as it was way to messy,so wait for it to get it's act together then it "may" look like a nice tidy "easy" long.

What I have changed lately though is I am now more patient,as in I just wait for the right entry,if I try and push a trade it goes to custard,so just wait for the right trade for my system,a + with this is I can run very small stops,but when I get it wrong I and know it I just jump,NO emotion is a big part of getting it right.



Just some thoughts that I thought might help,good luck with your trading.

Cheers
Miner

peat
13-11-2006, 01:09 PM
Yes theres good and bad with other peoples opinions whether it be macro economic perspectives or specific trades. I'm staying away from global-view forum at the moment as it mucks with my head all those viewpoints. After all the ultimate goal is to be able to read the charts independently.

I just thought I would comment too, that I was watching Eur/Jpy towards the close on Sat morning (our time) and the volatility was amazing!! Jumping around by 10 pips or more at a time over the course of seconds , up and down again and again. Kinda wondered whether it would be possible to trade that.

I'm holding my long on this pair.... so I'm quite long on the Euro overall as am holding long Eur/Gbp as well. We've had a correction on that one and now the flag is forming, which way will it break?

miner
13-11-2006, 01:57 PM
Hi Peat for me when it is jumping around it is too dodgy,why play when you can wait and do a safer trade,as when it is messy you just get taken out,I look for turn signals and for them to test previous high lows(look at usd/jpy,usd/chf and eur/usd today).

Am watching for eur/jpy to turn north on 150.74(look at daily) but in saying that don't get it stuck in my head.

Allot of my system is picking the turns,so start of runs big or small and often trade one pair by watching another,eg usd/jpy led usd/chf and eur/usd today,2 south one north.

I use the KISS method.

Cheers
Miner

peat
14-11-2006, 06:40 AM
The Reserve Bank has joined other central banks in buying Japanese yen...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10410565

(another article not supporting my current positions haha)

peat
14-11-2006, 12:10 PM
??? guess my stop at 150.89 got taken then.... [:I]
looks like some Jpy GDP figures came out....
GDP QoQ 0.5 v 0.2
Annualized 2.0 v 1.0
Deflator -0.8 v - 0.7

miner
14-11-2006, 12:17 PM
Bummer peat,I was long eur/usd but the b*gger didn't run the same so B/E stop got hit,and now it's going back up[B)].

Cheers
Miner

peat
14-11-2006, 12:22 PM
stealing this comment from another forum ...

" 150.75 previous double top, 150.80 yesterday low, 150.69 today's low (so far)...it seems this area become strong support now? "

miner
14-11-2006, 12:26 PM
Maybe remember I mentioned 150.73 yesterday,maybe let it settle first?,but best to do your own thing.

Cheers
Miner

miner
14-11-2006, 01:17 PM
Peat if your looking for a long it looks like it may be doing the back to test thing,15min,5min charts for 150.69,so might be a long off that.

Cheers
Miner

peat
14-11-2006, 01:38 PM
too distracted at work to decide.... will review this evening.

miner
14-11-2006, 01:53 PM
Good decision as unless your mind is 100% on the job don't play.

Cheers
Miner

peat
16-11-2006, 07:44 AM
was braver last night and got in at 150.91 (my previous stop out) and closed just now for +50 ...
todays green candle really adds a lot more weight to the breakout
and it completes the rising three methods candle pattern formed over the previous 4 days. altho the first dark candle of the pattern looked suspiciously like a bearish harami cross.

miner
16-11-2006, 09:32 AM
[8D]

peat
16-11-2006, 02:48 PM
a lot talk around today about PBOC buying Yen.

Yen Rises After China Central Bank Says It Bought the Currency
By Ron Harui and Chris Young

Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The yen gained after China's central bank said it had bought Japan's currency with its foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest at $1 trillion.

Asked whether the central bank had been buying yen, People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Wu Xiaoling said: ``We have.'' She declined to say if the pace of buying had increased. Central banks in Russia, Switzerland and New Zealand are building holdings of yen, anticipating Japan's currency will rebound from a 20-year low on rising interest rates and the longest economic expansion since World War II.

miner
30-11-2006, 09:50 PM
Worth a watch to see if it gets through 153.42,going to give it a go by the look of it.

Cheers
Miner

miner
01-12-2006, 11:39 AM
Blind faith in the US is only going to get you slaughtered in this game,unless you know if and when Nth Korea will fall and how many thousands of pips and which way(long or short?) until then.

Cheers
Miner

miner
01-12-2006, 08:36 PM
Well tested and through 153.42 for now chaps.

Cheers
Miner

miner
07-12-2006, 10:26 AM
This one and usd/jpy both worth a watch for a long today.

Cheers
Miner

miner
25-01-2007, 03:07 PM
There have been some good pips in this one the last few days(same with it's mate usd/jpy),still worth watching for more north or south as they have been big moves.

Miles better than my other 2 pairs,as have said before eur/jpy is a good(usually tidy) pair to watch.

Cheers
Miner

miner
05-02-2007, 01:32 PM
Short looking for 155.75 on the daily,but 156.46 to get through first,see how we go.

Cheers
Miner

miner
05-02-2007, 01:46 PM
http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/9866/fxfxrx3.png

My usual rough lines but you get the idea I hope?,very tight stop though.

Cheers
Miner

peat
05-02-2007, 01:55 PM
yeh bit of a fear holding short yen positions with G7 comin up

"EUR/JPY falls sharply as U.S. hedge funds, European securities firms unwind long positions due to G7 concerns, say senior customer dealers at major Japan banks. One tips first support 156.25, then 156.00 in Asia vs last 156.50 on EBS. USD/JPY also falls, may target 120.25 in Asia vs last 120.77 on EBS. "Some players who bought the dollar after the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls last week are probably unwinding positions, trying to hit stop-loss sell orders," one says."

miner
05-02-2007, 02:09 PM
Ta peat,I just trade off my screens and never read anything,BUT please don't take that the wrong way as I read what you post,I just don't go looking for it,so keep posting the info.

Going to get stopped in a tick I think as usd/jpy has turned back up,still was an ok trade pattern.

Cheers
Miner

peat
05-02-2007, 02:43 PM
thats cool miner , I just thought you might like a fundamental perspective alongside your technicals (as indeed you did).
I reckon you should stay short if you can.... direction seems to be down and retracement is bouncing back of 31% fib - (120.90) of todays drop. (USD/JPY)

And Eur/JPY is weaker , but hey.... you know what you're doing.

1 minute graph of USD/JPY today with fib lines.

http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/3522/usdjpy1min05022007vh4.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

miner
06-02-2007, 08:36 AM
quote:Originally posted by miner

Short looking for 155.75 on the daily,but 156.46 to get through first,see how we go.

Cheers
Miner


Well Peat it went through my 155.75,could have stayed in with a break even stop too,you where right about holding for a south move,should have gone with my first thought as that is often the right thought[B)];).

Cheers
Miner

miner
01-03-2007, 11:38 AM
Well long at 156.75,if you look at the 15min chart you will see the "U" pattern that I entered on,same with usd/jpy,eur/jpy through but now need usd/jpy to do the same on 15min.
Also thinking it got over sold on china news,so sanity comes back and may be an ok ride north,see if it does and if I can stay in.

Cheers
Miner

peat
10-05-2007, 10:41 PM
well its decision time for the Eur Jpy
we have (coinciding) a 61.8% retracement of the fall from 163.59 to 161.90
and a 161% extension of the first rise from 161.90 to 162.57.

http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/8290/eurjpy10052007hrlymediujy5.jpg

peat
11-05-2007, 07:22 AM
so seems my level of pivot was right... i only managed to short it at 162.38 currently +70

peat
12-05-2007, 01:35 AM
stopped for only 20.

arco
15-06-2007, 09:59 PM
Yen slides to 4-1/2 year low vs dollar
Fri Jun 15, 2007 11:04 AM BST

By Toni Vorobyova

LONDON (Reuters) - The yen hit a 4-1/2 year low versus the dollar and a 15-year trough against sterling on Friday after the Bank of Japan left interest rates on hold and gave limited guidance on future tightening.

The dollar was broadly firmer as investors expected U.S. inflation data could boost the view the next move from the Federal Reserve on rates would be up rather than down.

The BOJ left rates at 0.5 percent and Governor Toshihiko Fukui said he had no preconceived idea about a future rate rise, adding that he wanted to be more convinced on the sustainability of domestic capital spending and consumption.

"Fukui was pretty neutral... The market wants to sell the yen and so the news seems to be interpreted in that direction... I think the bias in the yen is still towards weakness," said Steve Barrow, currency strategist at Bear Stearns.

He added that risks to his six-month dollar/yen forecast of 129 were to the upside, and forecast euro at 180 yen.

By 0935 GMT, the dollar was up 0.4 percent at 123.45 yen, its highest since December 2002. Technical strategists say from here, the path is fairly clear up to 125.70 yen.

The euro was up 0.5 percent at 164.33 yen, closing in on the record high above 164.60 set earlier in June.

The single currency was steady at $1.3312, having hit an 11-week low this week.

Both sterling and the Australian dollar hit 15-year highs versus the low-yielding yen.

Rising equity markets contributed to a risk-loving environment, encouraging carry trade investments funded by cheap borrowing in the yen. Continued low FX volatility also helped.

INFLATION, TICS

Rallying U.S. Treasury yields and recent hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve have wiped out expectations for a Fed interest rate cut this year. These expectations had weighed on the dollar for several months.

"As activity data seems to be reasonably constructive and inflationary pressures still the issue for the Fed, it doesn't seem there's any obvious reason for the Fed to (cut)," said Jeremy Stretch, market strategist at Rabobank.

"Certainly for this year ... the Fed is happy just to be able to maintain a steady policy stance."

The U.S. inflation data due at 1230 GMT is expected to show that the core consumer price index rose by a moderate 0.2 percent in May from April.

Also due are speeches by Fed officials including chairman Ben Bernanke, U.S. May industrial production figures, June consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan, first quarter current account data and April capital flows numbers.

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?
rpc=401&type=hotStocksNewsUS&storyID=2007-06-15T100439Z_01_
T360067_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-FOREX.xml

bogus1
25-07-2007, 06:05 PM
hi arco going back to failed patterns, this is a good example of a failed bearish crab, the harmonic numbers tested and bounced.do you ever use this failure as a bullish confirmation, which would have worked nicely.
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/ScreenHunter_01Jul2518.49.gif

arco
25-07-2007, 08:08 PM
Hello b

I had that harmonic on my chart but I classed it
as a completed shape on 16th April-3rd May, (it failed
to follow through twice).Based on a pivot break there was no
entry taken.

IMO extending the legs further than that would create a
distortion which I would not normally trade off.

rgds - arco

peat
03-10-2007, 01:19 PM
I guess this perspective is repeating itself on a few pairs but this one has turned back from the 78.6 level

http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/9590/eurjpydaily03102007oe9.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

prpbably would need a stop above 166 so from current levels thats 120 pips. as the 161% ext of AB is at that level and and so is the AB=CD level.

dumbass
04-10-2007, 06:29 PM
just scanning through the charts , this is in prz , divergence on q stick , bearish engulfing and peat confirmation

peat
04-10-2007, 06:53 PM
lol at the peat confirmation
I am a contrarian indicator!

this came from Jyske Bank just now

Good Morning,



We expect ECB will leave rates unchanged at today’s meeting-
We expect BoE will leave rates unchanged.
EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, EURJPY, and EURCHF have formed tops and we expect that USD will strengthen over the coming days.

miner
11-10-2007, 09:49 PM
Evening chaps thought was about time I posted a KISS U trade,a bit late as been watching for a while but still going ok and setting up for new target tonight.

Anyway blow the daily out to 07/20 and the high of 168.85,then the low turn of 149.21 at 08/17,so it has turned,the entry I looked at after this was on 09/09 at 155.15,first target 165.39 from 08/08.

So today-tonight we look like we may be through this so next target (on daily) of our first number 168.85,through that and uptrend back in place.

See also tonight it's confirmation mates are playing the game,eur/usd nice north and usd/chf south,it's usual partner in crime usd/jpy doesn't know what it is doing,but should follow.if so you get the jump on the move.

No doubt there are charty patterns for what I am looking at but you know me just simple U trades,hope was of some help or at least a laugh hehe.

Been busy so only been nibbling at this move but up 70 pips on one and 130 on the other long at the mo.

Cheers
Miner

miner
11-10-2007, 10:11 PM
Hmm just had a look to see what else was posted on this pair and see you guys where looking short,and here I was looking long hehe,anyway past my bed time so catch you later.

Cheers
Miner

arco
11-10-2007, 10:31 PM
Hi Miner

Major Gann is waiting above circa 167.00 so we shall soon see if he can repel the advance.

rgds - arco

miner
12-10-2007, 07:50 AM
Morning Arco that he did but still made a few pips,and usd/jpy did follow north for a bit later in the night,so there was a jump on that move.

Nice big red hourlys so using the reaction for every action theory (the bigger the better) should be an ok day to watch.

165.37ish is what I am looking at,if it holds then will be looking north,testing 117.10 on it's mate usd/jpy now.

Jyske Bank from peat's post was only a couple of hundred pips out Hmm.

Cheers
Miner

miner
12-10-2007, 12:05 PM
Got on this one late as at 166.51 , but if this hour closes out ok then will be looking for a nice U back to last nights high (on the hourly)same thing with usd/jpy,tight stop behind it though,last hour ok close,see how we go.

Cheers
Miner

arco
16-10-2007, 10:04 AM
Heres the potential BF I mentioned on the ALERT thread

Formed by a triangle breakout, when the action reverted to
the UT line and apex.

peat
03-12-2007, 02:52 PM
head and shoulders on the 15 min??
eg neckline about 162.50 - starting from 1400 Nov 30
wondering if its about to break through on the downside any time. ?

peat
03-12-2007, 09:16 PM
closed that for +62 but that line is truly broken now... could be a chunk more.

peat
04-12-2007, 02:05 PM
another short 20 pips up from the previous buy back so thats at 1.6172

arco
04-12-2007, 09:08 PM
You're on a roll Peat....

....nice trading.

peat
04-12-2007, 09:48 PM
I had a sell limit at 162 and it was registered but didnt trigger my order.

arco
04-12-2007, 10:10 PM
Peat

FYI Metatrader platform shows a high of 161.99

I went in a bit earlier at 161.84 and 161.67

+57 & 40 presently.....

rgds - arco

peat
05-12-2007, 05:10 PM
in the end all to no avail. kinda knew that 60 or 70 would have beena good take but set stop to break even and went to bed so... nil zip zero nothing :+|

arco
05-12-2007, 05:46 PM
Evening Peat

I guess that high 'C' leg Gartley on the 1 hr chart which gave a Morning Star pattern at midnight (on the 618), would have warned us of a potential reversal in the wings.....well if we were not in the land of nod that is.....

On to the next one:)

arco
11-12-2007, 12:29 PM
Potential low risk short for 800-1000 pips perhaps.
I've added a possible EW count, which appears to
show an ABC underway. The chart should be fairly
explanitory

peat
12-12-2007, 07:32 AM
bit of a wake up call here this morning!!!!
tide definitely started to turn about 10 PM last night.

arco
12-12-2007, 09:01 AM
Nice to wake up to a surprise................

Eur.Jpy - off to a good start.......193 pips at the moment.
(Another short order @ 165.00 just missed entry by a few pips).

Also Cable order @ 2.0440 also got triggered - currently + 102.

arco
22-01-2008, 01:09 PM
11/12 .
Potential low risk short for 800-1000 pips perhaps. I've added a possible EW count, which appears to show an ABC underway. The chart should be fairly explanitory

EY hit the up TL last night (see previous chart)................

Nice trade for anyone that stuck with it - giving a max of over 1400 pips.

arco

dumbass
08-02-2008, 08:40 PM
eur jpy a buy

impulsive wave up , hammer

divergence on hourlies

may be a triangle forming good for a run into the 160s

600 pips +

peat
16-02-2008, 08:59 AM
the girl spotted a W so we;ve put in a trade on it for her. she can pay up if it loses ;)
sell @ 158.56 stop 159 take 157.5

dumbass
22-04-2008, 06:48 PM
looking like a short in play on this one which may back up short on eurusd

trendlines converging

butterfly and a gartley prz around 165

shooting star candlestick

divergence on hourlies

apologies i have chucked up prettier stuff than this chart

short from 164 sl 165

arco
22-04-2008, 10:29 PM
Hi All

Yes looking quite interesting now for a potential reversal
pattern in the green box, and off the upper channel line

rgds - arco

dumbass
29-04-2008, 07:01 PM
looking like a move is on

200 + but still eur weakness rather than yen strength

so should accelerate lower when yen comes in

dumbass
01-05-2008, 10:52 AM
the dilema of risking big counter rallys but hanging on for the big move lower

my target on this one 155 , lower TL now established looks like you could still short with a risk limit 16320

personally i try and jump on probably too early at the turn to be able to ride the big moves

but i do get stopped a fair bit because of that .

Bilo
04-05-2008, 09:29 AM
Hi All

Yes looking quite interesting now for a potential reversal
pattern in the green box, and off the upper channel line

rgds - arco

It started down, got a bit of a kick back up on friday stretching my expectations of its rate of descent when upset with the US employment data. Will EUR/JPY continue on its steady down this week? How far? How fast?

arco
05-05-2008, 02:08 PM
It started down, got a bit of a kick back up on friday stretching my expectations of its rate of descent when upset with the US employment data. Will EUR/JPY continue on its steady down this week? How far? How fast?

Bilo

IMO its always wise to expect large wave gyrations in crosses like Eur.Jpy.
What we are seeing here now is a retracement of the previous move. Check out my recent post on Gbp.Nzd thread and you will see one of the many ways of dealing with this potential move/setup.

rgds - arco

Bilo
05-05-2008, 02:46 PM
Bilo

IMO its always wise to expect large wave gyrations in crosses like Eur.Jpy.
What we are seeing here now is a retracement of the previous move. Check out my recent post on Gbp.Nzd thread and you will see one of the many ways of dealing with this potential move/setup.

rgds - arco

Thanks for the reply Arco. i had a bit of trouble finding a thread and then uncertain of what I found. NZD.GBP. A Xerof post. Does this suggest that you either let it run or sell at the new established point? it raised the question of how high is it likely to retrace to?

arco
05-05-2008, 03:12 PM
Hi Bilo

No you want to be here - post #2 (Sperandeo)

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5947

rgds arco

Bilo
05-05-2008, 05:27 PM
Hi Bilo

No you want to be here - post #2 (Sperandeo)

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5947

rgds arco

Thanks Arco - but i answered on the wrong thread. Could be retracing now...

dumbass
06-05-2008, 06:57 AM
hi bilo

Sperandeo entry in action

even got a change in support line turn to resistance

Bilo
06-05-2008, 08:12 AM
hi bilo

Sperandeo entry in action

even got a change in support line turn to resistance

Thankyou all, simply amazing!

dumbass
08-05-2008, 06:53 PM
this entry would have given 350 pips

i was short from 164 for 500 pips but i believe has many more to go

much lower target

miner
08-05-2008, 07:28 PM
USD/JPY doing the same since the turn last night.

Cheers
Miner

Bilo
08-05-2008, 07:55 PM
this entry would have given 350 pips

i was short from 164 for 500 pips but i believe has many more to go

much lower target

It has been a rough ride DA but I owe Arco a beer or drink of choice
500+ points, and (touch wood) still counting...:D

arco
09-05-2008, 11:24 AM
Should we make that a 12 pack of Stella Bilo :) ....then I'll be really refreshed and ready to search for more butterflies. Its hot work.

Of course you could always join my butterfly tipping service for $500 PM :D

rgds - arco

Bilo
09-05-2008, 01:08 PM
Should we make that a 12 pack of Stella Bilo :) ....then I'll be really refreshed and ready to search for more butterflies. Its hot work.

Of course you could always join my butterfly tipping service for $500 PM :D

rgds - arco

Cheap at the price Arco.
Stellas no problem just delivery - don't let me forget.:)

dumbass
13-05-2008, 05:31 PM
good risk reward on short eur jpy

if this count is correct short 161 35 sl 162 for minimum target 158 50

completley overweight on short already but have had a go at picking top on retracement

peat
13-05-2008, 08:04 PM
very nice call already! well done paul that overweight must feel a bit lighter now at 160.40

dumbass
13-05-2008, 10:06 PM
thanks peat

usd cad long looks good as well

i will post on correct thread

dumbass
14-05-2008, 06:26 AM
one nights sleep is a long time in the markets , yet i will have nothing bad said about the yen crosses . i love em theres always something happening
stopped out for a big fat zero , yes i could set tight stops but on the yen crosses you will more or less certainly get stopped and miss the big move

main position stop sitting at 163 from 164 entry

have entered again just now on bearish gartley on hourly and trendline resistance at 162 30 sl 163

fingers crossed

peat
14-05-2008, 07:00 AM
yeh that was a nasty move back DA - think I jinxed it for ya , it turned straight after my post :o

good to hear you had it covered to prevent actual pain tho and that your enthusiasm is undaunted. thats one thing about forex - no shortage of opportunity

and yeh you're right thats a perfect .618/.786 gartley

dumbass
15-05-2008, 04:30 PM
certainly got the reciprocal midas touch this week

hanging on with this trade close to getting stopped out for a pathetically small amount

have promised to have a tighter stop if the patron saint of forex lets me have another chance

161 will get me to fiji but looks like i need a dow jones melt down to get me on the plane

dumbass
21-05-2008, 05:54 PM
technical question

eur jpy has tested 163 on multiple occasions and been repelled

is this resistance viewed as getting more formidable or is viewed as getting weaker with

each attack

my personal view is weaker but interesting to here views

ps no scary images just a chart honest

peat
21-05-2008, 08:50 PM
i remember reading somewhere recently that the longer a chart takes to break through resistance then the more explosive the movement will be. but that isnt exactly what you're asking right now.
I guess what I am saying tho is that if it does break (either way) it will be well worth following

arco
22-05-2008, 12:25 PM
Quite an interesting pattern on the longer time frames.....

Anyway, I'll be away for a few weeks....so the action will play out
without me.....

regards - arco

roddy
26-06-2008, 09:36 AM
Hi Peat,
watching this one for possible reversal,it touched 169 this morning after FOMC,

dumbass
12-08-2008, 05:30 PM
bullish count seems to point to a multi month triangle with 5 waves labelled a - e

there was an impulsive 5 wave break out labelled 1

and now waiting to see where abc wave 2 correction will complete

only a possibilty but price now hitting triangle boudary with some fib cluster

no real confidence but just maybe a rally from 163 ? what do you think guys

dumbass
14-08-2008, 03:35 PM
do you favour eir jpy over eur usd miner ?

im having a look at a long eur jpy

miner
14-08-2008, 03:45 PM
Hi Dumbass yep most of the time as eur/jpy has more movement therefore giving trading opps,eur/usd can like usd/chf go sideways allot,so harder to pick which way they will break(but in saying that they both have been good lately).

So eur/jpy easier to pick and usually with bigger pip moves,watching both at the mo as they are moving in tandem,been long a few times today but break even stop keeps getting hit,long again at the moment,162.50 may have been an ok long number today,see how we go.

Cheers
Miner

miner
14-08-2008, 03:54 PM
If gets thru 163.00 looking for it to test yesterdays high 163.84 ish,cunning plan see how we go.

Cheers
miner

arco
14-08-2008, 04:15 PM
Hi Miner

I wouldn't be surprised to see 164.40-165.00 in the short term.

arco

miner
14-08-2008, 04:25 PM
Ta for that Arco,those 3 big north hourly's last night point the way,as usual picking a turn entry is the fun part,may have to wait for tonight for it to sort it's act out.

Cheers
miner

dumbass
14-08-2008, 04:41 PM
thanks miner , the yen crosses are amazingly volatile at the moment , scored some good

pips

im picking some good moves higher , i reckon gbp jpy when it bottoms will probably

be the best and im picking up at 220 +

for the mo looking at eur as the most settled for a run higher against yen

miner
14-08-2008, 04:55 PM
Allways good when you get it right,eur/usd just went south and just after eur/jpy followed,but then eur/usd has been moving first all day,so time for a drink,volatile is a nice way to put it,usd/jpy is a slower mover so less risk and often moves in a tidy fashion.

Cheers
Miner

miner
14-08-2008, 05:16 PM
Bugger got stopped by 3 pips before that move while getting a drink,lucky it was a rum and coke.

Cheers
miner

dumbass
14-08-2008, 05:16 PM
hey miner , there,s a lot of euro land data out tonight 6 -9 am gmt

market moving stuff

arco
14-08-2008, 05:19 PM
German Prelim GDP q/q about now.....

miner
14-08-2008, 05:27 PM
Ok ta guys may pay to poor another drink and sit on my hands.

Cheers
Miner

miner
22-08-2008, 04:50 PM
Worth a watch as the worm may have turned.

Cheers
Miner

dumbass
22-08-2008, 05:22 PM
hi miner are you talking short

there's a gartley on 10 min which might help

miner
22-08-2008, 08:34 PM
Hi Dumbass,ta for the chart,I posted turned off and have been busy with other stuff,was long today but stop was to tight and got hit when I went out,I was thinking we may get a bit more of a move north,will have a look monday night as busy until then.

Cheers
Miner

arco
26-08-2008, 07:34 AM
.

Placed a short just before shutting up shop.....based on a Fib setup - almost a BF. The pattern is similar to what Hobbs calls Shark Attack.


Result 61 pips.

.

arco
28-08-2008, 11:28 AM
http://www.trading-naked.com/images/DragonPattern/Dragon.gif.
Way back in the dim and distant past there was a trader called Jerry War who discovered a pattern call the Dragon.

Its not something I particularly look for....., but today I think the dragon jumped out at me.

Heres Jerrys spiel

Here is a pattern that I recognized some time ago. The thing about it that makes it so interesting to me is that it clearly identifies elements of support and resistance. I call it the "Dragon", it could be horse, could be a dog, Dragon sounded better to me. This pattern identifies short term reversals in the trend which are very tradable. If you look at the first gif which labels the key elements. The Back will always rise to test the Bottom of the tail-hook (support/resistance). After the second leg is in place you can buy the breakout of the Back price. Now here is an interesting point That breakout will rise to the level of the top of the tail (support/resistance). If the bottom of the head does not come down and violate the top of the back we have a high probability of continuation. Check this out for yourself before trading this setup. Attached along with the diagram are several examples from yesterday.

.....and the following chart bears a slight resemblance, or have I been drinking too much.

cheers - arco

Bilo
28-08-2008, 11:45 AM
[quote=
cheers - arco[/quote]

I can seethe dog but I think it starts from the 26th of August
Nice one arco!

arco
28-08-2008, 12:49 PM
G'day Bilo

You have to squint more carefully, ............and don't let my green BF distract you. :)

Bilo
28-08-2008, 02:30 PM
G'day Bilo

You have to squint more carefully, ............and don't let my green BF distract you. :)

Hi arco you seem to see butterflies in technicolour where I only see lines on the page. Must be the beer...

arco
05-09-2008, 07:22 AM
.

Well that was a nice breakfast surprise.......woke up to find
+286 pips on my account. Order got triggered @ 3.45 am as I
snoozed blissfully unaware.

.

peat
05-09-2008, 06:23 PM
that was a sell limit well below market arco! what was your reasoning on that level and direction?

arco
05-09-2008, 07:54 PM
Evening Peat

I was checking the hourly chart last night and the action appeared to be forming a bear flag so I placed an order below the previous pivot low and shut up shop.

Didn't expect such a major fall...........currently +492.
(Already taken half off at 300 pips)

Theres a Gartley on the 2 hr, so could be a good time to grab the balance.

rgds - arco

arco
05-09-2008, 08:08 PM
I decided to take 500 pips, - the action just hit my TP, so a happy
result.......

________________________________


For anyone unfamiliar with the Bear Flag.................

The technical target is derived by subtracting the height of the flag pole from the eventual breakout level at point.

http://chart-patterns.netfirms.com/pic/cont/bear_flag2.png

arco
06-09-2008, 08:45 AM
Quote Post #220

"There's a Gartley on the 1 hr, so could be a good time to grab the balance"

The Gartley I mentioned gave circa 250 pips. I didn't trade this one myself, as I was in the land of nod, but it was a good move for anyone that took the opportunity.

Good weekend all - arco

AMR
13-09-2008, 12:30 AM
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture.php?albumid=5&pictureid=53

Seems like a false break below the long term support (thick black line), followed by a bounce and pullback which respected support. Long 150.90 SL 150.45.

arco
31-10-2008, 05:12 PM
Wow.....nearly 200 pip drop in EY in seconds.


Fortunate I was short with target +52.5 pips :D

When you see moves like this it confirms the point about having a stop in place - ALWAYS - just in case of a major move against you.

Could be something to do with some JAP announcements between 5.30- 8.00 NZT

peat
14-11-2008, 04:31 PM
Hey arco it came through before lunchtime!! Stop was at 200 pip , take at 600. Very small trade but hey 600...

arco
14-11-2008, 06:28 PM
.

Pretty exciting Peat.....the big runs are amazing if you can catch them.

AMR
14-11-2008, 08:28 PM
Hi peat, on what basis did you decide to go long?

peat
15-11-2008, 05:36 AM
yeh thats the good question AMR
and tbh I'm always a bit suss of post event justifications but heres two pics that supported the stance. first the 3 hour had found support at the 78% retracement and at the 15minute time frame i saw it had done the same tho I'd missed the boat to some extent hence the large stop.

arco
07-09-2009, 08:29 PM
Battling against the Kumo.

KS @ 134.86

http://i25.tinypic.com/2qk2ons.gif

arco
10-09-2009, 10:46 AM
Potentially a small H&S forming on the H1.

Targets below.

http://i27.tinypic.com/ws5r93.gif

arco
10-09-2009, 10:55 AM
Battling against the Kumo.

KS @ 134.86



This trade gave a reasonable move of circa 70 pips. (Grey box area)

http://i30.tinypic.com/16lh6c6.gif

arco
11-09-2009, 08:42 PM
Potentially a small H&S forming on the H1.

Targets below.

http://i27.tinypic.com/ws5r93.gif


BINGO - 100 pips

:)

peat
09-10-2009, 11:34 AM
picked up a couple last night , bit of a butterfly and then a 1-2

going well so far... current price 130.94 +45

target 1.32

peat
09-10-2009, 08:49 PM
a quick climb to 131.5 so I'll take half off already +95

peat
10-10-2009, 05:36 AM
thankfully added 2 more again at 131
original take now hit at 132 and I've left one going for the king hit.

peat
15-10-2009, 09:45 PM
closed remainder of this at 1.34 +300

arco
15-10-2009, 09:56 PM
Nice trade Peat. :)

Great when you can hang on for the long haul

arco
31-10-2009, 02:03 PM
Occasionally I get lucky :D

http://i33.tinypic.com/25gv605.jpg