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dumbass
28-02-2008, 08:35 PM
this is a sentiment guage i use to help position longer time frame trades

the idea is that when a market tops or bottoms there is an extreme reading between

commercial hedgers (usually on the right side of the market )

and speculators like myself (usually on the wrong side of the market , of course excluding peat , arco and roddy )

so as an example as euro usd tops out for a major trend change

the sentiment guage will pick up the commercials being extremely short against speculators being extremely long

at the present juncture , it feels like there is no one left to go long in euro however sentiment guage disagrees and it appears there is plenty more upside in this up move .

it seems on the cards there may be a correction due but in no way does the sentiment guage indicate a top

Steve
28-02-2008, 09:22 PM
Where do you find/calculate this sentiment guage?

arco
28-02-2008, 10:05 PM
Steve

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission publishes the Commitment of Traders report (COT) every week, and it measures the net long and short positions taken by traders in the futures market. It is a great resource to gauge market sentiment from the “big players” because of their large positions they are required to report to the government. Of course, it is very important to see what the “smart money” is up to because they move the markets and it may have an impact on your positions.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/COTreport.asp

rgds - arco

dumbass
28-02-2008, 10:10 PM
comes out once a week , i think a friday

its posted on dailyfx site

here,s a sample

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/futures_positioning_cot_report/US_Dollar_Bearish_Potential_Remains_1201537409076. html

sorry i dont know how to make a link , but wack that in your browser

GeorgeW
29-02-2008, 01:55 AM
Many thanks, Arco,

That is quite a treasure. I didn't know such report is freely displayed.
Nice, very nice :D

http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm

George

peat
29-02-2008, 07:41 AM
Oanda offers these insights into it customers positions thus allowing you to gauge their overall sentiment

Open Positions Ratio
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/trastats/ratio_positions.shtml

Open Positions summary
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/trastats/positionsummary.shtml

Open Orders Summary
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/trastats/ordersummary.shtml

Also a historical long short ratio
http://fxlabs.oanda.com/cgi/fxlabs.pl?id=8
Note that Eur$ longs over the last week have moved from %60 to %38


PS you dont need to be an Oanda customer to view them.

So there plenty of information out there on sentiment.

In the last two days %60 of Oanda customers have been short Eur$. So if you were using it as a contrarian indicator it would have worked. A week ago they were long tho, and hence correct. It seems they're selling into this surge now. Are they right or wrong this time?

Even tho I'm not a paying customer, Max sent me an email on Monday morning (price 1.4820) saying 155. Getting there.
Long term he says 1.7.

Steve
29-02-2008, 07:37 PM
Thanks for starting this thread DA, and thanks for sharing your links Arco, GW and Peat.

It's amzing what information is available when you take the time to look...

dumbass
04-03-2008, 09:42 PM
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/futures_positioning_cot_report/COT__Euro_and_Pound_Still_1204573386481.html

dumbass
04-03-2008, 09:45 PM
signs are slowly emerging

US Dollar Index: The 52 week COT index is at 71, indicating that plenty more selling is possible. However, the 13 week index is at 0, which warns of a bearish sentiment extreme and potential turn. Conditions remain bearish but the USD is probably very close to a significant bottom. Watch for signs of strength.



Signal: Bearish but forming a bottom

dumbass
05-08-2008, 09:17 AM
last weeks COT data indicated a bullish extreme in USD

this should provide the fuel for a move higher in euro against usd

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/Dollar_Long_Positions_Increase_Significantly_12178 73299491.html

dumbass
26-08-2008, 08:20 AM
stop what youre doing boys and read this !

cot data indicating some major extremes across majors

some big trend changes coming up , looks like may be the end of dollar run

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/futures_positioning_cot_report/British_Pound_Speculative_Shorts__COT__12196812270 93.html

Dr_Who
26-08-2008, 10:46 AM
Hey Dumbass, do you recommend short in $NZ against Aussie and US?

dumbass
26-08-2008, 11:47 AM
hi dr who , if its ok ill have a look when i get home tonight and post some charts

dumbass
26-08-2008, 06:54 PM
i would be looking at long audnzd re chart posted on david hardman thread


the problem with shorting anything against the usd at the moment is the massively

overbought level of the usd

i believe the nzdusd is a short but you have to watch against a sharp snap back in the

usd which will be pretty vicious so i would wait untill that is out the way

peat
27-08-2008, 06:50 PM
stop what youre doing boys and read this !

cot data indicating some major extremes across majors

some big trend changes coming up , looks like may be the end of dollar run

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/futures_positioning_cot_report/British_Pound_Speculative_Shorts__COT__12196812270 93.html

a relevant comment from global-view

Adam Boyton, a strategist with Deutsche Bank in New York, also suggests that there is still plenty of room for more investors to go long of the dollar. He said that although data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Friday showed speculative interest at its highest since November 2005, positioning is still not that extreme given the overall growth in the market itself. "There still appears scope for the market to get 'longer' on the dollar," Boyton said