GFF - Goodman Fielder

[AMR]

Anyone holding this?

The charts look like they could be completing a double bottom pattern soon and the OBV has started a short-term uptrend. Fundamentally I don't know how they are coping with cost pressures from those soft commodities. If the pattern doesn't complete it looks like a good scalp on the short side however.
http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/2716/gff3rdapril2008ex3.png

[AMR]

http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/5603/gffobv3rdapril2008zt1.png

[macduffy]

Judging by the lack of activity on this thread there won't be much interest in this post but, being in Auckland yesterday, I took the opportunity to attend the GFF shareholders' information meeting.
Pleasantly surprised by the presentations from Chairman Max Ould and CEO Peter Margin and left with the feeling that GFF is in good hands. Been to a lot of these dog and pony shows over the years and this rated well above the average. Ould is, of course, the successful ex CEO of National Foods and did a good job for shareholders until Nat Foods was taken over. Peter Margin is new to me but he was equally impressive - frank and informative.
Questioning from shareholders wasn't particularly probing but some interesting insights nevertheless. Expect a fairly difficult current year but a few things are starting to run in the company's favour as commodity prices drop and GFF is not locked into longterm hedging or contracts for most of its raw materials and logistics prices.

Disc: Small holding from the IPO.:o

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi McDuffy,

GFF ... according to our astroanalysis, this one should have a big
week, next week ..... may start the week, on the downside as a
difficult time cycle passes through, but we should see a strong
rally from Tuesday, onwards ..... :)

have a great weekend

paul

:)

=====

[macduffy]

Hi Mo

A couple of things.
A fairly bland question/statement about the importance of people and what the company was doing for employees brought forth the frank admission that GFF hadn't been a great employer in the past and that there had been a lot of disgruntled people, poor working conditions and disputes. Margin made a pretty convincing case to the effect that a lot of effort and money had been and is being spent to improve conditions, upgrade plants and facilities and that the company/worker relationship was much improved. I had the impression, rightly or wrongly, that it was a legacy of the Hart years ( and prior ) when GFF had been run for maximum profit in preparation for sale/listing.

GFF are committed to Aust/NZ production and have no intention of moving plants offshore to achieve lower costs. They import a lot of ingredients of course and have stepped up efforts in quality control since the melamine scare. Made all the right reassuring noises there!

Cheers

[AMR]

Yes I agree Mo looks like it may be forming a triple bottom for real this time, lets see how it breaks out above 154.

[_Michael]

Hi,
This is a worthwhile company for discussion, wondering though if there is tax benefit in looking at the NZ listed shares rather than the AU listed shares? One of the key things making some of the local listed companies dividends so attractive is their exemption from further tax....

[macduffy]

Final dividend is due to be paid later this week so it will be interesting to see to what degree it is imputed for NZ tax payers.
Last year there was partial NZ imputation, from memory.
Chairman mentioned that a third of their business is in NZ but that of course doesn't necessarily translate to a third of the profit.
Imputation won't be affected by which exchange or register is involved. It's the domicile of the shareholding taxpayer that counts and whether or not the company is prepared to organise their affairs in a way which allows NZ imputation in respect of the NZ tax paid by the company. ANZ for example, despite their large NZ shareholder base and NZ profits, don't pay any NZ imputation credits.

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi McDuffy,

GFF ... according to our astroanalysis, this one should have a big
week, next week ..... may start the week, on the downside as a
difficult time cycle passes through, but we should see a strong
rally from Tuesday, onwards ..... :)

have a great weekend

paul

:)

=====

Hi folks,

GFF ..... as expected, this one gapped-up and is ticking up nicely ..... :)

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

[Yossarian]

Pleasantly surprised by the presentations from Chairman Max Ould and CEO Peter Margin and left with the feeling that GFF is in good hands. Been to a lot of these dog and pony shows over the years and this rated well above the average. Ould is, of course, the successful ex CEO of National Foods and did a good job for shareholders until Nat Foods was taken over. Peter Margin is new to me but he was equally impressive - frank and informative.


I was about to say you got it round the wrong way - i.e. Margin is the ex-CEO of National Foods. But I just checked GF's website and it turns out they both had the role! (Ould first, followed by Margin).

[macduffy]

Hi Mo.

The employee fence-mending appeared to be something that had to be done if the company is to prosper, ie things were in a pretty bad way there.

I've lost count of the number of times Aust/NZ govts have reviewed or said they will review trans-Tasman tax arrangements. It always seems to founder on the fact that doing away with double tax means a loss of revenue to someone and no-one has yet been prepared to make the sacrifice!

;)

[dragonz]

The chart is looking alright, maybe even a little spesh given where the sector's gone.

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2007-1/1240468/GFF.JPG

I concur ;)

[Yossarian]

I guess it helps them that their NZ dollar earnings are worth more following the strengthening NZD in the last month.

Conversely, NZX performance is not so good, but still solid-ish given the rest of the market!

[macduffy]

Well, dividend received and no Imputation Credit for NZ shareholders.:(

Doesn't seem to worry the market, however. SP up another 10c this morning to $2-00. :cool:

[Yossarian]

Well, dividend received and no Imputation Credit for NZ shareholders.:(

Yeah, I don't understand this... surely they pay plenty of NZ tax so could pass through a partial imputation? The div 2 years ago (just after listing) was fully imputed, I think.

[macduffy]

Yeah, I don't understand this... surely they pay plenty of NZ tax so could pass through a partial imputation? The div 2 years ago (just after listing) was fully imputed, I think.

Yes I don't understand it either but it seems to " cost" a company to elect to pass on NZ imputation credits, which is why we don't get a lot.
Perhaps a tax expert would care to explain?

[winner69]

Are the denials strong enough to make the rumours about 'banking convenats being breached' go away

Held at 140 odd so maybe but these days what starts as a piece in the AFR is just the start of a steady decline

Maybe GFF being picked on by the hedge funds (bad) .... maybe just loose reporting (bad) ..... maybe reporting was right (bad) .... maybe GFF denials are correct (good)

Seems more bad than good and it is market setiment that rules ... not fundamentals ... and market sentiment just seemed to turn

Interesting couple of weeks coming up

[lou]

GFF is looking mighty cheap

3585

Any reasons why its down so much?
When will we see a turn around?
What came out in the latest financial results?

http://www.goodmanfielder.co.nz/sites/default/files/PDFs/MediaCentre/110829 ASX_NZX Ann_Results Announcement.pdf FY11 results

[Huang Chung]

Apparently Coles and Woolies are screwing Goodman real hard....

http://www.google.com.au/url?q=http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/201108/s3306147.htm&sa=U&ei=lCJeToWQAaOJmQWO9qAw&ved=0CBoQqQIwAA&usg=AFQjCNGHUxrv7WMr2JlPGFwCAsQO8HUNhA

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bread-maker-blames-loss-on-supermarket-bunfight-20110829-1jid4.html

[macduffy]

Yes, there's nothing new in that, of course, as the pressure from the trend to home brands intensifies.

Hard to see how GFF can counter the dual squeeze from commodity prices and the supermarkets' buying power.

[J_Gold]

Anyone reckon they can turn this company around into a winner over the next two years like they say they can? She's looking awfully awfully cheap atm. At this price I just had to take a quick bite.

[lou]

Anyone reckon they can turn this company around into a winner over the next two years like they say they can? She's looking awfully awfully cheap atm. At this price I just had to take a quick bite.

Yes I can do that. Now I just need the 6 figure salary.

[winner69]

Yes I can do that. Now I just need the 6 figure salary.

new head honcho says he knows what is required .... now the time to buy lou?

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/delaneys-big-vision-for-goodman/story-fn91v9q3-1226139321848

[janner]

Not buying .. But not taking my eyes off..

[Xerof]

Wait for the buy signal - its in a downtrend.....

You say its cheap - it can get cheaper

[lou]

I agree with Xerof.

[winner69]

Capital raising .... so expected cash flows obviously not big enough to give them extra 'head room' they want .... so they have to go to shareholders at a miserly 45 cents ... what an embarrasment ..... not a good sign methinks .... probably more screwed than it looks on paper

[drillfix]

Agree there winner.

The stock touched the 13ema and now ready to breath downward to the placement price potentially.

Or as both Xerof and Lou also say, why buy now when you can get it cheaper.

[winner69]

Agree there winner.

The stock touched the 13ema and now ready to breath downward to the placement price potentially.

Or as both Xerof and Lou also say, why buy now when you can get it cheaper.

Right on the button there

Massive number of new shares .... 575 million new ones .... 42% of issued capital ... so existing punters almost compelled tp front up eh

[winner69]

One thing you don't do is piss the market off ... esp big time as GFF seem to have done..

Off course they are 'panicking' as they see paying the bank this $500m in a few months a big problem.

Stuffed they look .... watch this space for more carnage ... and then maybe, just maybe, good money to be made

From Business Spectator today

Goodman Fielder

Goodman Fielder boss Chris Delaney has a lot on his plate and the food manufacturer’s decision to pursue a capital raising has reportedly led to rancour from shareholders and analysts alike. Goodman plans to raise $259 million, through a fully underwritten five for 12 pro-rata entitlement offer, at a price of 45 cents per share. That issue price is at a 24 per cent discount to Goodman’s last trading price of 59 cents and a whopping 78 per cent lower than Goodman’s 2005 float price of $2, so it’s easy to see why shareholders are upset and The Australian reports that some are now agitating for a change at the board level. As for the analysts, Fairfax papers report that the Goodman conference call yesterday was a heated affair with a number of analysts questioning the timing of the equity issue, given that Delaney is set to update the market about the strategic review, announced in August, in another six weeks. The suggestion here seems to be that Goodman’s management might be in panic mode as it renegotiates its $500 million three-year loan facility expiring in October 2012. The company has denied that raising has been instigated by pressure from its lenders, instead saying it was designed to provide extra ''headroom'' under its loan facilities. However, the specifics of that will have to wait until mid-November and many aren’t buying the argument that Goodman’s bankers aren’t behind the move. The fear is that the $259 million may actually not be enough for Goodman given that restructure costs could potentially add up to around $100 million. Just what the restructure fully entails is still being devised, although it’s highly likely that Delaney may take up the advice of analysts who have plenty of ideas. Credit Suisse analysts reckon Goodman should spin its Home Ingredients and Integro Foods divisions and float the combined entity through an IPO priced at around $680 million and at this point Goodman’s shareholders will be hoping that the management is willing to pursue any and all possible options. The $259 million raising is following the lead of Origin’s $2.3 billion capital raising in March by utilising the Prorata Accelerated Institutional, Tradeable Retail Offer model that allows retail shareholders to participate in the retail entitlement offer at the same offer price and offer ratio as the institutional entitlement offer, providing them with upfront liquidity and ensuring that they are not left playing second fiddle to institutional investors. The raising is underwritten by Citi and Credit Suisse, with Greenhill Caliburn acting as advisor

[janner]

Thank you winner69.

One has to decide whether this move is a Kamikazi effort.. Or a studied and planned Stuka attack on the problem..

The kamikazi may end up in Victory.. It may also end up in a pile of scrap metal being pushed over the side..

The Stuka was used to good effect for precision bombing.. Taking out the problem.. And had a very swift climb ..


Is Chris Delany A " CEO " .. Or a " GENERAL " manager ??..

[macduffy]

Right on the button there

Massive number of new shares .... 575 million new ones .... 42% of issued capital ... so existing punters almost compelled tp front up eh

A sort of compulsory averaging down in a stock that I wouldn't be looking to buy!

The writing's been on the wall for some time now that GFF is losing the war against the supermarkets' home brands. I think I'll take my loss here.

[moimoi]

Wait for the buy signal - its in a downtrend.....

You say its cheap - it can get cheaper

Quite possibly the call of the month !!!

So much for "consumer staple" stocks being a defensive place to hide in terms of turmoil hey...