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lewinsky
14-01-2004, 07:27 AM
Last year I did some research into this company. I posted a message saying it was one to watch. Since then the company has gone from 12 cents to 23cents. This has allowed me a few beers over the summer.
Keep a watch on this company. I received a brokers research report on it today from Tolhurst Noall rating it as a buy,with a 12month target of 32cents.
It is a leading mining products and services company,providing drilling fluids,tools and equipment and drilling services and mineral processing.
It is benefiting from the increased activity in the resource sector in Australia.
It has a 49% interest ina jv in Saudi Arabia that supplies drilling fluid and chemicals to the onshore and gas industries. This has been the source of some problems in the past but management are believed to have soughted this out and they have won some significant contracts there.
The broker is expecting a dividend to be paid this year.
Do your own research,but I like it:)

foodee
14-01-2004, 08:20 AM
32 cents fc!! Great if it gets there:)

lewinsky
14-01-2004, 08:55 AM
please define fc?

newz
14-01-2004, 10:37 AM
Lewinsky
Don't know about Tolhurst, but I took a look at it after it was tipped by Dominic Banana on HC.
The Saudi JV looks interesting.
Best wishes.

foodee
14-01-2004, 12:48 PM
lewinsky
apology: fc is to mean forecast

lewinsky
02-02-2004, 12:43 PM
Half yearly result posted today. NPAT up 76% to $1.27million on revenue of $19.37million up 32%.
JV in Saudi a small loss but expected to be profitable by year end.
Cash from operations $1,239 million.
Balance Sheet looks strong.
More upside here I think.

foodee
06-07-2004, 09:30 AM
Increasing volume and sp - what's up

Lizard
14-06-2005, 02:06 PM
Imdex Q3 newsletter shows they are on track to achieve a NPAT of $3 - $3.2m. This equates to P/E of 8.1 at current price (23cps). Minerals exploration continues to remain strong and a continuation of current trends in existing businesses could result in a 2006 profit of around $4.5m. In addition, the company proposes to acquire Samchem (South Africa), which could provide a further $0.5m in profits.

The minerals business is to be sold (effective 1st July) and the money from this sale ($6.3m with a further $1.5m conditional payment at a later date) will be used to acquire Samchem (50% cash purchase = $3.8m). The remainder will be used to retire debt, which should then put the company in a position to be able to pay dividends.

Therefore, my prediction for 2006 is eps=4.0cps, dps=2.0cps, share value = 40cps+

This is a speculative share due to the small size of the company and low liquidity.
PDYOR

Lizard
07-09-2005, 06:37 AM
As per my post on SS yesterday:

Came in spot on at $3.1m NPAT...

...but that included a $1.4m write-down of mineral assets (which MAY be recoverable).

Bullish on dividends for 2006.

s.p. risen a little to 24cps, so P/E now at 8.8.

2006 prospects - full tax paying position? So guessing $4.5 - $5.0m NPAT based on 15% revenue growth and no write-offs. Guessing 1.5cps dividend. So 2006 P/E = 5.0-6.1, with yield at 6.25% net (not sure how much they could frank).

My full year 2006 valuation is 50cps.

Cheers,

lewinsky
07-09-2005, 04:13 PM
Hi Lizard,
Thanks for the post and the accuracy of your forecast. I like the prospects for IMD. Balance Sheet looking good with low gearing and now generating good operating cashflows.
Looking forward to a dividend. But like PCG it looks on a fairly low PE. Hope your yr end share price valuation is as accurate as your profit forecast.
Regards

Lizard
07-09-2005, 06:18 PM
Hi Lewinsky - yep, I do reserve the right to modify my view on the 50cps... :-D

Did you see someone take out around 9m shares on the close this afternoon?!

That will qualify for an SSH notice. Hope it's not a lead into a t/o bid as I don't think I'll get my 50cps that way!

PCG looking nice too, but I still haven't bought any - though I have recommended to a couple of friends.

Cheers,

lewinsky
09-09-2005, 11:56 AM
Hi Lizard,
Still no SSH notice which I find a little odd.
Is there a time limit when these need to be posted?
Cheers

Lizard
04-11-2005, 05:36 PM
Posted this on SS last week, so just updating here:

Looking at the figures in the newsletter - forecast revenue of $55m and forecast EBIT margin in "mid-teens". (For comparison, continuation of first quarter sales and margins would be $62m and EBIT margin 16%),

Have increased my estimated for 2006 FY to $5.2-$5.6m NPAT i.e forward P/E of 5.7-6.1 at current bid of 28cps. Increased odds on a 2cps dividend too, though will stick with 1.5cps forecast for now...

Price now at 31cps with large volumes traded this week. Still planning on getting my 50cps.

lewinsky
01-02-2006, 04:12 PM
Hi there Lizard,
This is building up very nicely prior to what could be a very good half yearly announcement.
Like you I am looking at 50 cents and maybe more on this one.
Any views on what may be the outcome on MET. I think you are a holder there too?

Cheers
Lew

Lizard
01-02-2006, 04:55 PM
Hi Lewinsky. IMD looking good - I'm just out of town and got a nice surprise checking the s.p. today [8D]

I still hold all my MET. Will review after the next set of results. They are a low risk "hold" and c.f. Rymans, looks like room for upside. I think, given time, they will either creep up or get a clean-up takeover offer. But I may consider selling some at some stage for more exciting prospects.

Lizard
06-02-2006, 06:26 PM
42.5cps today. Am tempted to take a few profits at these levels, Lewinsky - just in case they find something to write-down! But probably good manners to wait for the HY result. If we get the top-of-the-range profit forecast, there could still be 60cps in this one.

lewinsky
07-02-2006, 07:35 AM
Hi Lizard,A great finish at 43cents. Roll on the half yearly report. Surely they can't miscount stock and overstate debtors again?
I am in the good manners camp and I am holding but like you I am tempted to sell some.
I bought some more MET the other day,so hope MacBank are like Mr Hart and pay another 25cents to get rid of me. :)
Have a good one.
LEW

Lizard
08-02-2006, 06:18 PM
I put a few on the sell at 42cps yesterday, but someone must have beat me to it, so I didn't get any away.

There's a bit of profit-taking to be done, so not surprising to see it back here at 38.5cps today. Could go lower - back to the being mannerly and waiting for the result I guess...:)

Lizard
21-02-2006, 12:08 PM
Half year result out. Profit up 133% to $3.2m. Dividend 1cps. Price another step closer to that 50cps, with a current high of 47.5cps.

Looking forward, things appear to be running ahead of my conservative forecast. Therefore, looks like profit will come in around the $6.5m mark. Price may fall back a little on no news in the interim. This would put it on a P/E of 10.5 at current price (46.5cps). Dividend will be at least another 1cps, but could easily be 2cps for second half, so yield of 4.3-6.5%. This is still going to look quite cheap, provided there are signs that growth will continue (albeit possibly at a slower rate).

My guess would be for a profit upgrade in May or June, with price moving up to around 55 - 60cps within the next 6 months. However, because of the cyclical nature of the industry, I retain a valuation of 50cps and would like to see signs of a "stronger for longer" cycle or quality growth through acquisition before upgrading.

lewinsky
19-04-2006, 02:11 PM
Acquisition announced today which looks like a really good fit at a really good price.
This should add a lot to a great little company that paid it's first dividend recently. Market seems to like the announcement. I think we may say a rerating here. Good management,little debt,little ripper!!
LEW

Lizard
19-04-2006, 04:18 PM
Put this on SS, but might as well add it here too...

Looks like a tidy acquisition to me at a reasonable price. Have increased my conservative valuation to 64cps, but think we could see 75-80cps in the next 12-18 months.

lewinsky
30-06-2006, 11:59 AM
Looks like another very good purchase by IMD announced yesterday. The price paid to EBIT looks good. Trust you are still in there Lizard?

ps What happened to sharescene?

Lizard
30-06-2006, 12:29 PM
Hi Lewinsky. Am still here. And so is ShareScene...are you having probs with it? You didn't offend the mods did you laddie?? [:p]

I thought yesterdays acquisition announcement was great as looked to be purchased on a P/E of about 8.5 so should add immediate value. My valuation (conservative as ever) now 75cps. But with potential profits of $10 - $12m for 2007, there is plenty of upside to that. Ohmyme has written an excellent post on SS. If you can't get on there, let us know - will get him to copy it here.

Cheers,
Liz

lewinsky
30-06-2006, 08:48 PM
Hi Lizard,
I think the market likes this as much as I do.Up 3cents on good volume. Heading to your 75 cents i hope.
Not too sure why I can't get into sharescene. Did you put the hecks on me?
I'm still holding out on MET.
Bought into BDL and also STS.

Lizard
30-06-2006, 09:16 PM
A better finish today. Was somewhat irritated yesterday at the price rise being all pre-announcement and nothing after... bad form. Grrr.

I also still have most of my MET and hold STS. Value STS at $1.40, but don't feel as comfortable with them as IMD. Haven't checked BDL. Are you still holding PCG? I am amazed how far back it has come - looks tempting at these prices! Also sorry I missed MRM - just started looking at it and then the price took off... such is life.

Can you get the SS site or is it a password issue? Try here. (http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?)

ohmyme
30-06-2006, 09:38 PM
Anyways I have run some numbers on the IMD acquisition. What this all means is that IMD is going to have bank debt of around $10million moving forward plus the convertible note with a face value of around $10million as well. Obviosuly the bank debt will drain cash flow in the order of $3million per year, and the note will dilute shares by around 15% end of 08, but have no drain on cash flow.

The latest acquisition they have not given an indication of revenue, which is strange, only an EBIT figure.

Moving forward I have assumed the following for 06/07:
- Reflex no growth in figures and have used historical estimates provided by company.
- Ditto for Chardec (the latest one).
- Assumed 10% revenue growth in existing businesses and 15% EBIT margin moving forward.
- Assumed bank debt interest of 10% PA and 8% for convertible note.
- Also assumed full 30% tax rate, IMD is starting to mature now, and I think it is better to value it on a normalized basis.

What all this means is the following:
Net profit for 06/07 of $12million
EPS of 8.5c
This is 100% normalized net profit growth from 05/06 figures. Pretty impressive really. Risks are that IMD now has around $10million in debt. Will have to run some ratios on it to see what that is like. But things such as interest cover ratio are still very healthy, and I dont think the balance sheet is stretched. In fact I think it is good because it means that the banks will have done their DD on this company and acquisition, and it may add more coverage for the company. IMD is approaching the magical $100million market cap level.

Risks for forecast earnings moving forward:
- Integration risk.
- Foreign exchange risk, now that they have divisions in UK and Sweeden.
Actually these are pretty big risks in my mind, and probably means that the forecast profit figures have to be discounted. The good thing is I havent factored in any growth for any of the acquisitions or synergy benefits etc, which I think there will be lots of. On top of that my forecast growth figures for existing business is pretty light on. So there is heaps of upside left in the forecasts, however because of the above risks these should be discounted.

Pluses:
- Hot sector, servicing the mining drilling sector.

Price targets:
- I think that based on the above figures IMD is a safe trade up to 85c which would place it on a forward PE of 10. However I think as it gets some runs on the board and delivers on forecast earnings, it could trade up to 15, which is a price target of $1.20.

If they can deliver and integrate these latest acquisitions, then IMD will be popping out some very impressive figures and ratios for 06/07.

Net profit growth > 100%
Return on equity > 30%
If in addition they can grow the dividend then I think IMD will be a market darling in the next 6 months. I recently bought and will add, when the share price can break above 60c.

cheers.

lewinsky
02-07-2006, 09:33 AM
Thanks for the analysis ohmyme. It pretty much confirms my thinking. As you can tell from my the date of my earlier posts,I have been in this for a while and have built on my original holding. I still see quite a bit of upside there.
Thanks also Lizard,I am back in sharescene.
I am not too sure what has happened to PCG. But I'm holding and may look to top up both IMD and PCG.

Cheers

Lizard
01-08-2006, 03:30 PM
Here we go again... off in the direction of a new high? I bought more at 56-58cps recently for the conservative portfolio - moving up from "spec" to "respectable".

Lizard
28-08-2006, 01:53 PM
Result out - a formidable $8m NPAT masks a $4.5m gain on re-valuation of their interest in Sino Gas & Energy, and a $2.3m write-off relating to their disastrous Saudi JV ($650k still to recover from their JV partner and ex-director).

Underlying profit of $5.8m on revenue of $66.8m - revenue came in well ahead of their $55m target, while EBIT margins were a shade under the 15% they had forecast. Final dividend of 1cps. Final profit looks good against my original (November) forecast, but a little weak against the strong first half result. Free cashflows were reduced by big investments in property, plant and equipment - these might be worth examining more closely.

Looking forward, management are predicting 45% growth in revenue and further improvement in EBIT margins. Allowing for EBIT margin growth to 16-17%, this gives a profit indication of $10.9-$11.5m for 2007 - in line with the figures we discussed of $10 - $12m NPAT post Reflex acquisition.

Lizard
28-08-2006, 05:11 PM
Small clarification out - NPAT from ordinary activities actually $7.0m - they didn't adjust for the abnormal tax in the previous announcement... A very respectable result on that front, which brings the current fully diluted P/E back to 13.0 at an sp of 62cps. Forward P/E at approx 8.7.

lewinsky
12-10-2006, 08:48 PM
Hi Lizard,
Are you still holding IMD. The investor presentation today was very positive. Predcting a 25% increase in revenues. With improving margins they could achieve over $12 mill after tax. This would put them on a p/e of around 9 by my calculations.
They are also generating great operating cashflows and say they are looking to reward shareholders. That to me says a good dividend increase.
This has been a stella stock for me and I think there is a way to go. Roll on a $1.

Be interested in your views as always Lizard.
By the way I can't ge back into sharescene again?
You told me a while back what to do but I've forgotten.

STS looking good as well :)

Lizard
12-10-2006, 10:01 PM
Hi Lewinsky. Still holding. And make that a 45% increase in revenues they are forecasting :)

That is not new data though, as was in the annual report, and pretty much in line with our previous estimates of $10-12m NPAT for 2007. I have a conservative valuation of 88cps for now, but I haven't even attempted to price in the Sino Gas & Energy holding - and that could be very positive given the mention of a 2007 AIM listing for SGE.

I think IMD should easily push through my valuation in the next 3-4 months, particularly now they have reached the $100m market cap "visibility" level. $1.00 - $1.20 might be on the cards within 12 months. Should continue to be a good little earner for a while yet. Up 300% for me now and the ones I added at 56-58cps a few months ago are turning in a great performance too now we're at 78cps.

Re Sharescene - there's a link in my post of 30 June I think might have worked for you last time? Not much chat on there about IMD or STS.

STS has turned in one of my best performances for October. But not a big hold for me - don't entirely trust them.

Are you holding KLM? Another one which has been for a little run up of late. They had a presentation today also and I particularly liked their focus on margin improvement - if they can achieve that, shareholders should be well rewarded given the underlying revenue growth.

lewinsky
13-10-2006, 12:04 PM
Hi Liz,
Thanks for the reply. I agree that IMD looks on track for the $1 to $1.20 range.The half yearly report should confirm they are on track and have brought benefit of the recent acquisitions to bear.
I am also in KLM and like this operation and what management are doing.
I trust that you looked at BDL back in June. This has jumped from 15 cents to 25cents. The growth in the second half of the year was stellar. They seem confident in maintaining this,bouyed by the resource sector.
Cheers

LEW

Lizard
13-10-2006, 09:14 PM
Oh dear, missed BDL :( So many great shares, so little time!

At least IMD finished on a new high today at 81cps. :)

lewinsky
16-10-2006, 11:47 AM
Hi Lizard,
The click here you posted on 30/6,doesn't work this time round. Can you please resend this as I am still out of sharescene.

And the 81 cents is looking good. :)

LEW

Lizard
16-10-2006, 11:58 AM
That is odd - still working for me. Try again here (http://www.sharescene.com/index.php?).

I was playing around with an alternative method for valuing shares on the weekend, and IMD came out well. Plenty left in it - looks like it should open at a new high. :)

lewinsky
16-10-2006, 12:51 PM
85 cents. At this rate I will be able to go to Perth for the Annual Meeting!!

Snow Leopard
16-10-2006, 03:42 PM
I am quite pleased with the short-term progress of this one since buying in over the later part of the last week. :)

Disc: My first true Oz share purchase.

Lizard
16-10-2006, 04:16 PM
Aha, so you're the one responsible for this price spike...[:p]

Snow Leopard
16-10-2006, 04:43 PM
Did not a pay a milli-cent over 78 for any of my shares.
See your [:p] and raise you [:p][:p]

lewinsky
16-10-2006, 07:14 PM
Welcome on board Paper Tiger. The IMD train is heading in the right direction,and has been for the last three years :)). All the signs look good for a steady increase especially if they get the benefits from their recent acquisitions.

Lizard
06-11-2006, 12:27 PM
Ouch! Looks like a few stops got triggered in that little plummet to 68cps... Took the shine off your 78cps Tiger.

My reading is just games/accidental damage at this stage...but needs watching.

BSA
06-11-2006, 01:04 PM
Hi Liz,

In Perth Sunday Times, State One Broking have them as a sell,...They expect co will continue to report strong growth, but think 280% increase more than accounts for forecast growth.

Depth was likely a little weak and with some extra sellers it had no where else to go.

Cheers

BSA
06-11-2006, 01:06 PM
I might add to the above, that State One Broking had PDN as a sell around $3 I think it was from memory:D

Lizard
06-11-2006, 01:15 PM
Thanks BSA. I guess they are not into 10-baggers then. [:p]

Thanks for the explanation. I still think they might have more in them. But I've been wrong before!

Flying Goat
06-11-2006, 09:46 PM
Hi lewinsky, Lizard, ohmyme, BSA and KW,

Just read through this thread earlier this evening and wanted to say well done, this company has put in a great performance to date. So, after reading the last two annual reports and latest quarterly report it looks very impressive to me, on the following counts at least:

- consistent strong return on equity

- capital inflows from sale of non core businesses seems to have been put to good use, with some of the recent acquisitions looking to have real potential for earnings growth and helping them access new markets

- no debt, strong cashflows, all characteristics that Buffet loves:D

- Last week Magnus Lemmel (Director) bought 60,000 shares at market, that is for AUD 48,600, (he was buying at .81 cents)

- management seem to have exceeded own targets and forecast 45% growth in revenue with improving margins... based on historical normalised npat of $7 million pe is still below 15, so looks like forward pe heading back down below 10. Though i did note it has tended to trade on rather low pe in the past, like around 9 or 10

So, definitely worth further research for me at least. The problem is that I am new to this industry, it is not really one I have studied too much before... so was wondering if anyone knows much about the competitive environment and what IMD's realistic position in the market is currently. Wondering also what you percieve to be their unique advantage or that what has enabled to achieve the results it has over the last couple of years?? Also, what their major threats are, or potential problems in this industry? Sure, will do own research but just wanting to throw a few questions out there as a starter, as to me from a cold hard numbers perspective I think IMD may have potential regardless of the fact that it has gained nearly 300% over the last couple of years.

Anyway, hope to hear other's views...

Cheers
Flying Goat

PS I am going to agree with Lizard and say that I reckon there is still upward movement yet, medium term, pe is still very low for such an impressive earnings growth trajectory - in my opinion / evaluation.

Flying Goat
07-11-2006, 05:11 PM
Hi There

Oh well, could not resist and climbed aboard with a small parcel of 10k at 75 cents today. What I see I really likem but am testing the water until I can get my head around all the businesses a bit better... maybe there will be a few more buying opportunities disguised as dips in the months to come.. :D

Cheers
Flying Goat

Lizard
07-11-2006, 06:13 PM
Hi FG. Good for you. :)

I can't answer your questions above. I'm more of a numbers and intuition person.

I'm well ahead now and the long-term chart still looks fine to my eyes, so I'm relaxed.

Flying Goat
07-11-2006, 09:56 PM
quote:Originally posted by KW

Mining services seems to be money for jam at the moment - not enough people or equipment to go around, so they are sitting pretty providing they arent locked into too many old contracts at poor prices.
Way I look at it, all the junior mining companies that raise tons of cash on the market, need to spend it somewhere, most notably with mining services companies. Unlike the exploratory miners, the services companies are getting plenty of cold hard cash their way, and they are in good bargaining positions due to the shortage of manpower and equipment.


Thanks Chaps....!

My plan is too celebrate the $1 party with you all at around this time next year ;)

FG

Snow Leopard
09-11-2006, 11:48 AM
Opened around 69c/70c.
Is this still fall-out from the broker sell recommendation?

Beefheart
09-11-2006, 12:50 PM
Possibly selling by Souls Private Equity (SOE). They've been selling off their holding for quite a while now.

Shows the folly of making large placements to short term holders at 'current prices' when your company has such strong growth prospects - in hindsight a big mistake!

Still has good forward prospects by my analysis.

Regards
BH

Lizard
09-11-2006, 06:01 PM
Good buying on the close. Trend line looks safe again for now.

Hope you're enjoying your intro to the schizophrenic world of the ASX, PT!

Mick100
09-11-2006, 06:47 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Good buying on the close. Trend line looks safe again for now.

Hope you're enjoying your intro to the schizophrenic world of the ASX, PT!


Hope your right - got some more at 70c at open today
,

Snow Leopard
09-11-2006, 07:32 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Good buying on the close. Trend line looks safe again for now.

Hope you're enjoying your intro to the schizophrenic world of the ASX, PT!

Yes, it's a funny place alright :D

On the assumption that the company will come close to it's forecasts for the current year and that in the next few years it can achieve at least moderate growth then I am happy to make the most of it.

Flying Goat
09-11-2006, 10:05 PM
quote:Originally posted by Mick100

[quote]Originally posted by Lizard

Good buying on the close. Trend line looks safe again for now.

Hope you're enjoying your intro to the schizophrenic world of the ASX, PT!


Hope your right - got some more at 70c at open today
,


To me it looks like a compelling investment at current prices, and super steep growth trajectory. The only thing that crosses my mind when looking at the 12 month chart is... will gravity apply... or not!? I see $1 on the horizon, about 12 months away.... but assume it will be a rocky ride along the way.....!!

FG

Snow Leopard
24-11-2006, 05:23 PM
I am pleased to see this back up to where it was when I bought it about six weeks ago.
Hopefully the long term trend is up.

Phaedrus
01-12-2006, 07:41 PM
IMD was going absolutely nowhere for years and years and years. It has now been in a spectacular uptrend for 18 months, so far. The attached longterm chart shows On Balance Volume acting as a leading indicator, triggering an early Buy signal well before the uptrend really got underway.
I post this chart by request and because it is such a nice example of an explosive breakout.
I trust that all you fortunate holders have an exit strategy! You could do worse than use the moving average and/or the trailing stop illustrated here.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/IMD121002.gif

Lizard
02-12-2006, 06:31 AM
Thanks Phaedrus. Much appreciated. :)

Flying Goat
02-12-2006, 09:38 AM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Thanks Phaedrus. Much appreciated. :)


Yes, thanks Phaedrus. As always that was very insightful. I will definitely be keeping a much closer eye on significant uptrends in volumes when checking out stock charts and trends in future...!!!

Cheers
FG :)

Kell
08-12-2006, 05:29 PM
So... IMD went up 4.5c today (nothing too abnormal there), but there was $5.1 mil in turn over. That's huge compared to normal. Am I missing anything?

Flying Goat
08-12-2006, 09:55 PM
quote:Originally posted by Kell

So... IMD went up 4.5c today (nothing too abnormal there), but there was $5.1 mil in turn over. That's huge compared to normal. Am I missing anything?


Good spotting Kell. I am the world's most amateur on the subject of TA but have been creating charts at BigCharts which is a free charting tool that shows OBV, an indicator that through Phaedrus's posts has really caught my attention. If you look at the OBV after last day or two... it might be getting ready to run again, becuase there has been a sharp and pronounced upward spike. On the other hand this could just be due to some situational event like a large one off transfer of shares, guess that is to be seen.

FG

cheers
fg

Lizard
09-12-2006, 08:16 AM
Course of sales says it was not a one-off transfer. Wish I'd been watching depth, as it might have given me more clues. But would like to see that OBV chart using VWAP rather than closing price, as most of the volume went through at 75cps - so might not be as positive as Big Charts shows.

BSA
09-12-2006, 01:04 PM
Yes not showing a large crossed trade or anything, but it must have been an orchestrated trade between two brokers/parties, but why it was not done as a crossed trade i dont know?
It all seemed to take place from 1:43 to 3:39 and there are many parcels going through in the same multiples.

Agree Liz re OBV limitations, as big transactions can warp the indicator,...for example a stock may have a very large crossed trade and close down a few cents on the day for no reason other than it was having a breather, yet OBV would be tanking making it look nasty.
So something to take into account with a volume based indicator like OBV,.....that being said i like OBV, but use it more on weekly charts.

Cheers

Lizard
12-12-2006, 10:46 AM
Looks like SOE were selling to PPT.

Flying Goat
12-12-2006, 04:12 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Looks like SOE were selling to PPT.


And PPT's average buying price seems to be around the 75 cents mark.. suggesting that thought it good buying at that level, while SOE had already probably at least tripled their money so were also happy! All in all I guess it's a good thing.

FG

lewinsky
14-12-2006, 12:37 PM
IMD could be on the verge of a push forward to the $1 mark. Up to 82 cents on good volume this morning. Testing new highs.
I am looking forward to their next announcement which should show the benefit of their latest acquisitions.
Agree with you FG. PPT see value and it is good to have them as a ssh.
LEW (a very happyIMD holder!)

Flying Goat
14-12-2006, 04:43 PM
quote:Originally posted by lewinsky

IMD could be on the verge of a push forward to the $1 mark. Up to 82 cents on good volume this morning. Testing new highs.
I am looking forward to their next announcement which should show the benefit of their latest acquisitions.
Agree with you FG. PPT see value and it is good to have them as a ssh.
LEW (a very happyIMD holder!)


Yep, over 500,000 shares gone through so far today, and touched on 84 cents at one point... next break out might be on the horizon [:p]

FG

Flying Goat
15-12-2006, 04:23 PM
Bingo, new territory...! :)

lewinsky
16-01-2007, 02:01 PM
A nice wee rise over the 90 cent mark today on decent volume. I suspect buyers coming in prior to half yearly announcement which should be positive. Trust FG can sleep more easily now on his 75cent purchase!

wns
16-01-2007, 02:52 PM
You beat me to it... yes a nice rise today!

I bought into IMD in December. They had a great 2006 but still seem pretty good value.

Flying Goat
06-02-2007, 05:31 PM
hmmm, interesting breakout today on no news... looking forward to the half year result, although assume we will get it at around 21st Feb. Any thoughts on how they have might have been progessing relative to their upbeat targets or on what might be causing today's price action?

FG

Lizard
06-02-2007, 06:40 PM
Just typical of the way IMD price moves in fits and starts. Probably institutional buying on the close and just getting set for what should be (another) good results season.

96cps close makes it a 4-bagger for me over a little under 2 years. :)

I don't think it will stop here. A quote I believe came from a January report by Ord Minett in regard to IMD:

quote:“While I’m reluctant to recommend a stock without having done all the necessary work and modelling, every now and again by chance or good fortune you stumble across one that is an absolute ‘no brainer."

(Refer here (http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/australian-commodities/2007/01/16/))

Lizard
16-02-2007, 06:17 PM
I'd forgotten that the SMAFI convertible note was to be compulsorily exercised if the shares reached $1. I wonder if SMAFI will be overjoyed to find their Aug 06 convertible note doubled in value so quickly... or concerned that they actually can't realise that value for another 18 months?

While the extra dilution doesn't help the valuation at this point, it does free up the balance sheet for more/larger acquisitions if the opportunities occur.

Lizard
20-02-2007, 11:44 AM
And sure enough, they've gone straight for another acquisition...:)

Flexit looks like a good fit - linked to Chardec and adds to Reflex product range. Assuming they can maintain EBIT over the longer term, this adds 9cps to my valuation, though current share price is sitting pretty close to that valuation at $1.09. However, another good performance at HY could see that change.

(My current valuation is $1.08, as there has also been some dilution from the SMAFI convertible note and various options)

In positive fashion, the purchase carries the issue of 5m shares at $2 per share in 2 years time - although the small print says they'll make up the difference to $10m if the share price hasn't actually got there by then....

lewinsky
21-02-2007, 07:22 AM
This time last year IMD announced their half yearly result,so today could be the day they announce their results to 31December 2006. These will give a real indication of how well they have integrated the acquisitions they have made.
It will also mean a more accurate assessment of value can be made.
Up another 5 cents to $1.15 yesterday.
This has been a great little share,which I have bought at various stages starting when I started this thread and have bottom drawed.
Big question is"can they maintain the momentum".
Looking forward to an increased interim dividend.
LEW

Lizard
23-02-2007, 08:08 AM
According to the Sino Gas & Energy web-site, they plan to raise $50m by listing on AIM in first quarter 2007. So perhaps more news to come on that front as well, with additional information on the value of IMD's investment in SGE.

thereslifeafter87
23-02-2007, 10:04 AM
Solid result in terms of EPS growth.

The balance sheet however is a total abortion. NTA of -$18mill, and $46mill of borrowings.

I'm sure they will be able to service this debt with the strong cashflows they are receiving, but it makes it too risky for me to buy in.

Thoughts?

Lizard
23-02-2007, 11:05 AM
$10.4m of debt relates to the SMAFI convertible note which has since converted to equity. Although they will also pay an additional $12m in cash for the Flex-it acquisition when it settles and this will also probably increase the goodwill and intangible assets to further impact NTA.

Lizard
23-02-2007, 02:56 PM
TLA87,

This is a non-accountants view only, so please treat with caution:

I think they've done an excellent job of extracting maximum growth from their financial capability. I don't think they've necessarily reached their limit, given that they have been able to produce some fairly creative solutions regards to issuing equity for acquisitions while minimising dilution. They may also choose to sell their non-productive asset in SGE post-listing and further reduce debt. The intangibles on their balance sheet are almost certainly salvageable given the revenues/profits those investments represent. Provided the current mining boom doesn't end abruptly, it seems likely they could pay off all debt in around 3-4 years, so it doesn't seem excessive. Perhaps if they raise the final dividend, they will throw in a DRP?

Looking at the result, it is slightly above what I was expecting and puts them on track for a FY NPAT of $12-$13m. Taking into account dilution from recent share issues, this is a forward P/E of around 15 at current price of $1.08. With the Flex-it acquisition, I am estimating 2008 FY at $16-$17m (P/E of 11.2-11.8).

Having said that, for my personal requirements, I now rate them as a "hold" rather than a "buy". But my "sell" price is still well out of reach.

Lizard
23-02-2007, 04:46 PM
There is a wealth of information on the acquisitions in the notes. Some points include:

1. About $12m of the debt is deferred vendor payments (discounted at 8% pa).
2. Nearly $10m of debt is borrowed in Swedish Kronor with the demure interest rate of 3.6%pa at last payment.
3. If Chardec and Reflex had been acquired from 1 July, they would have contributed a further $0.45m in profit for the 6 month period.
4. The result included amortisation of $1.4m of intangible assets.

Lizard
20-03-2007, 09:19 AM
Continuing its strong run with a high of $1.20 yesterday following a couple of broker/tipsheet recommendations. Ten bagger since Lewinsky called it "one to watch" at 12cps in late 2003. Nice one Lewinsky! :)

Mick100
20-03-2007, 10:56 AM
The addition of some mining services companies to my portfolio last yr is working out well with the exception of BNT (DOWN 60%)- I'll wait for the next quarterly report until deciding what to do with this one

Others that I bought were IMD, ESS, PCG and BDL -all doing nicely - all lewinsky/lizard picks
They don't get knocked around as badly during market corrections as my junior miners - that was my main reason for buying them - to reduced the volatility of my portfolio.
.

wns
20-03-2007, 10:32 PM
They've requested a trading halt.

Wonder what's in store?

Lizard
22-03-2007, 09:14 PM
$16.5m capital raising through issue of shares at $1.10 to fund Flexit acquisition and working capital.

At $1.18, P/E for 2007 diluted to approx 18 and for 2008 to about 13.7 based on previous NPAT estimates. (Some savings on interest costs probably boost NPAT and negate some of that dilution).

wns
23-03-2007, 03:28 PM
I sold my IMD shares today for $1.17.
Had bought them for $0.855 back in December.

lewinsky
28-03-2007, 12:26 PM
There is an excellent company presentation given by Imdex to the Citigroup Micro Caps conference today. Well worth a look at. I think this company will quietly chug along gaining a few cents per week.
Great sector,management and performance.
LEW

Lizard
28-03-2007, 01:23 PM
They certainly don't appear to be anywhere near ready to slow down the growth rate with plenty of new initiatives - note the mention of "exciting new sales and distribution alliances expected for 2H07".

Also, repeat of the view that second half will be stronger than first and supported by the statement that unaudited sales for first 2 months of this period are in line with that view. I think NPAT of $13m for the FY is a conservative figure (since cap raising reduced interest costs) and am cautiously optimistic it could be another 10% higher than that.

Serpie
28-03-2007, 02:05 PM
Just checked the buy / sell depth, and I don't think I've ever seen a sell side with so little depth, even at large margin over current SP.
Hardly anyone's selling (including me!)

Serpie
12-04-2007, 06:20 PM
Very accurate post on 28/03/07 Lewinsky, but then you did call it at 12c, so every reason to trust your judgement.
I bought in $1.11 based pretty much on TA. Had never been a fan of TA, but IMD is making a convert of me.

lewinsky
13-04-2007, 11:41 AM
Just like the Chattanooga Choo Choo. It just keeps chuggin along. $1.37 today.
A bottom draw gem.

Lew

Snow Leopard
17-04-2007, 06:22 PM
Glad I bought some of these a few pages back. They do seem to be somewhat in favour at the moment and long may it continue. [:p]

Lizard
04-05-2007, 03:24 PM
Just a heap of good news in the latest shareholder newsletter out today. Unaudited results for the third quarter look very strong. Money back from the Saudi JV (which I think had been written off) and expecting to exit Sino Gas & Energy before end of June (perhaps booking a further profit on exit and/or freeing up cash for further ventures).

Serpie
04-05-2007, 07:07 PM
I cashed out of IMD when the momentum slowed last week. Had a great run.
I think it's just taking a breather while it prepares to carry on it's merry way. Once the upward trend resumes the buyers will come straight back in.

lewinsky
16-05-2007, 01:17 PM
It's hit the $1.50 mark on good turnover. The third quarter newsletter read very positively.
Just a great little share.

Lizard
16-05-2007, 01:50 PM
Citigroup decided to initiate coverage of 11 "micro-cap" stocks in their newsletter this week - and IMD appeared to be their pick of the bunch with a target price of $1.87. So that has been driving this run.

lewinsky
16-05-2007, 02:51 PM
Cheers Liz,
$1.87 looks a bit toppy,but no complaints if it gets there

Lizard
09-08-2007, 06:48 PM
IMD was going absolutely nowhere for years and years and years. It has now been in a spectacular uptrend for 18 months, so far. The attached longterm chart shows On Balance Volume acting as a leading indicator, triggering an early Buy signal well before the uptrend really got underway.
I post this chart by request and because it is such a nice example of an explosive breakout.
I trust that all you fortunate holders have an exit strategy! You could do worse than use the moving average and/or the trailing stop illustrated here.


FWIW, I think we've just dipped through that 80-day EMA that Phaedrus suggested using as a stop back in December last year.

Fundamentally, still a grower, but no longer cheap as it once was and unlikely the growth in NPAT can be maintained at that same rate. So that lovely uptrend was probably doomed to weaken sooner or later.

I've reduced a few recently and may reduce more, but interested to see the FY result. Current price $1.405, following a peak at $1.70.

Mothman
12-08-2007, 08:17 PM
Still in this one and keen to top up if it falls any more. Still on a PE of approx 13-16 based on my forecast for 2007 NPAT.

Good business to be in - drilling services. Those oil and mining companies won't stop drilling just because of a credit crunch. Maybe when the fully blown US recession comes in 2 to 3 years ;)

steve fleming
14-08-2007, 08:21 PM
I see a note in the AFR today that analysts are worrying that IMD is over-extending itself, given IMD's mixed track record at integrating its previous acquisitions.

Bridges Institutional has IMD as a sell, with a valuation of $1.22

Lizard
15-08-2007, 06:29 AM
Their strategy clearly indicated selling the shares in Sino Gas & Energy before end of June. This would have contributed a fair chunk of cash to pay down debt. However, SGE hasn't listed on AIM as planned and no updates on web-site since Dec 06. So there is at least a hiccup there in terms of planned cashflow and asset management.

Lizard
16-08-2007, 02:25 PM
Result came in pretty much exactly on track with my expectations at underlying $12.7m (up 81%). New expansion into Latin America. My current valuation $1.27.

OneUp
16-08-2007, 02:30 PM
Yep.

IMD meets expectations and it's been body slammed. Down 20%!

I'm the only idiot on sharetrader admitting I'm buying today. Picked up some IMD at $1.02.

Mothman
16-08-2007, 04:29 PM
Bought some more at 99c then got really scared when seller appeared at 95c with 50,000! Savaged is the word that came to mind when the All ords were down 5% and IMD was down 20%

macduffy
18-08-2007, 07:49 AM
Only recently looked at this coy and surprised at the hammering it's taken recently. Out of proportion to the Asx downturn and on the heels of a 79% increase in NP, sound balance sheet. Can only assume: NP was over-anticipated: overall concerns re future mining/drilling industry:concerns re recent aquisitions.
What am I missing?
Irrational/inefficient market?
Sheer panic?

lewinsky
06-11-2007, 04:37 PM
This has been a real test of having faith in a company that initially had its issues with a bad stock. However it has had a management with a real focus and they have stuck to that plan.
Those who have stayed with them have been well rewarded. Now well through the $2.00 barrier.
They acknowledge that they are the number four player in the field. That to my mind may make it a takeover play.
Good management,good strategy,good growth and a good dividend.
I can't get a response from my NIP thread.
Maybe there are more IMD followers????

Lizard
07-11-2007, 06:39 AM
Yes, I am still holding. Though not as many as I started with. 10-bagger for me in a little over 2.5 years and am happy that they seem to keep making good decisions. :)

lakeys
07-11-2007, 06:58 AM
Got out 2 months ago and did ok, still folowing and cursing as it goes up everyweek since!

macduffy
07-11-2007, 08:07 AM
Have been watching and not doing since my post of 18 August, and all the poorer for it!
Think I've missed the boat?

Mick100
07-11-2007, 11:06 AM
bought just over a yr ago in the high 50s
still holding
Even the "johnny come lately's", like myself, can do OK on a share like IMD.:) I know some of you paid far less for your shares than I did


PS, nice jump in BDL today - are you still holding lew?

lewinsky
15-11-2007, 01:42 PM
Taken a nice wee spurt today to $2.30.
I am unsure as to why. I can only guess that some instos have finally woken up.
I got out of BDL some time ago but may look to re-enter.
I would recommend gold followers to read the SBM presentation done last month.
From where I am sitting looks very good.

Cheers

LEW

Lizard
15-11-2007, 01:53 PM
Hi Lewinsky,
At current market cap, must be a good chance it ends up in the All Ords at the next S&P quarterly update. Changes should be announced beginning of December. Possible that some of the buying is pre-emptive?

lewinsky
15-11-2007, 02:52 PM
Hi Liz,
You could be right.
Are you still holding STS? They have done really well since you brought that one to my attention. I am still waiting for EMM to do something.
SBM now up to .855.

All good

Lizard
15-11-2007, 04:05 PM
No, silly me got out of STS. Big mistake as still looks good and might even re-visit if I had some spare cash. Glad to hear you are still making something out of it. :)

Have a few EMM, but no longer keen on it and prefer AET. Nice work on SBM - I hadn't checked that one.

lewinsky
16-11-2007, 12:31 PM
Liz,
Slightly off the topic of IMD, but Mick100 raises an interesting company BDL.
Mining support services which is a sector I like.
Their forecast Earnings before tax $16-$17 million and with future tax losses available this looks as though it is on a P/e of around 9.

Could be worth keeping half an eye on??

Lizard
16-11-2007, 01:47 PM
Hi Lew, yes I think you put me onto BDL a long time ago, but I never bought as just didn't seem such a smooth operation and more capital intensive than IMD. As I just posted on the EMM thread, I am trying to reduce the number of companies I hold, since my collection has become eccentrically out-of-hand! Maybe once I've convinced myself to part with a few current laggards I will take a look again.

Lizard
30-11-2007, 06:30 PM
And still IMD rockets... $2.42

I'm down to the last 10% of my original holding now - not sure if that is dumb, but I've had a fantastic ride on IMD. No longer the value play it used to be - though they have kept surprising me on the growth side.

zac
28-05-2008, 12:34 PM
IMD took a king hit yesterday (down 20%) on what seemed to be a relatively innocuous ann. Recovered some today but jeez the market is nervous.

Footsie
28-05-2008, 02:19 PM
dumped my holding

you still in there liz?

i have no interest in following managment that over promise and under-deliver

plenty of other cheap stock i could put the money into.

Long from these levels anyway so didnt take a hit

Funnily enough i nearly sold at 2.30 the other week.

Running the ruler of ANG..... i like the look of them as a replacement for imd

lewinsky
21-07-2009, 02:22 PM
IMD set to merge with CKK. This could be an interesting move for both companies.
Entry through Ckk could be the better option.

LEW

assuming ckk is not the notorious nightclub in auckland (do your own research!)

lewinsky
13-08-2009, 12:25 PM
IMD has risen from 30 cents to over 92 cents this year.
Fortunately they withdrew from the merger with CKK.
They are due to announce next week. I think this will be a positive result with a potential increase in dividend.
At one stage this was trading at a PE of 2!!
Nuts

Lizard
08-03-2010, 08:38 PM
Just went back to this one for a quick re-visit and catch up on progress... well, not much progress really. 2H09 was a shocker. 1H10 a slight improvement, but not enough of a "bounce" off the low - given the cost structure for the fluids side is more variable cost based, might have expected a little more cost control by now. Also disappointing to wear the huge intangible asset write-offs - though more due to the vagaries of IFRS (wasn't amortisation of goodwill preferable in some respects?)

I think IMD has still made huge progress over the past 5 years and cyclical set-backs were always to be expected at some stage. However, their last HY result was disappointing and prospects not well conveyed to the market in advance. Whether or not they are a "buy" a this point depends on whether they can exceed 2009 at EBITA level. Right now, I think the prospect for that looks marginal and downside risk remains. Currency may also provide a headwind, giving an advantage to overseas competitors.

Although I value at about $1.09 (currently 63cps), I'd want to see firm signs of improvement over the next 4 - 6 months before I'd be willing to risk returning to IMD.

Lizard
18-08-2010, 09:18 PM
Only just got back to IMD to look at FY result. As expected, the result was below prior on normalised EBITA. However, also marked the turnaround on a six month period basis, which sets up for decent growth into 2011. Current normalised NPAT was $9.8m, but I figure a continuation of pace into 1H11 and a bit more pick up in the second half would give a good chance at $15-$16m NPAT for 2011. Can be a pretty scalable business, particularly fluids.

Have upped my valuation to $1.15 (currently 87cps) and would consider adding it to the shopping list.

lewinsky
14-10-2010, 02:10 PM
A very good presentation from the Company at the AGM today. The shares have been steadily climbing and have jumped on the level of the 1st quarter results.
I like the company management, conservative balance sheet, and the sector.
At its peak the shares hit the mid $3 and then dropped to under 40cents, so it has been a rocky road. I hope a few followers topped up in the doom period.

lewinsky
17-12-2010, 12:18 PM
The announcement today of the purchase of a german mud-data company has pushed IMD up 12 cents this morning.

This is a well managed company, and I am looking forward to their half yearly report.

Could see this bavk over $2 soon

Fodder7
15-08-2011, 11:01 AM
Thought I would try to resuscitate this thread. IMD just released a pretty good result for 10-11 with NPAT up almost 3x to 29m and record results on most other metrics. The good news is probably priced in already with the stock at a P/E of 13. However, some clever acquisitions and good scaleability could see some further strong growth IMHO.

Anyone still watching/holding this one?

Huang Chung
22-08-2014, 06:14 PM
"IMD - A little gem"

Well, a very tarnished gem, given the rout that mining services companies have suffered of late.

However, the outlook statements in the full year results announcement, and also in today's letter to shareholders, are, quite upbeat.

First green shoots maybe?

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=IMD&E=ASX&N=687980

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=IMD&E=ASX&N=688636



In today at 74.5c. Let's see how it goes.

Huang Chung
26-08-2014, 06:48 PM
Nice to see a Director buying on market as well. From a quick scan of the announcements, it seems to be the first change of Director notice since October 2013 (and that one was a sale of shares).

Seems to back up the positive outlook statement in the previous post.

Huang Chung
01-09-2014, 04:42 PM
Low volume, but seems to slowly be moving in the right direction.