Linc Energy (LNC): emerging UCG company

[tommy]

By nature I am a tech-oriented fundamentalist investor, but couldn't find any companies that tickle my fancy for a while, so I have been primarily momentum-trading risky options of speccy stocks in fertilizer sector. Not my style really... but hey, better than earning 7% interest in an online bank account.

But hey, I have finally found one that deserves some attention, so let me start babbling about Linc Energy (LNC).

"Linc Energy Ltd is an Australia-based energy company engaged in the development and commercialization of underground coal gasification (UCG) technology, and the further exploration of the opportunity to combine UCG and gas to liquid (GTL) technologies. As of June 30, 2006, Linc Energy holds 14 coal lease tenements in Queensland under exploration permits for coal (EPC) and a mineral development license (MDL). The Company's properties have combined inferred and indicated resources of 581 million tons of coal. Linc Energy produces syngas (manufactured gas) at its Chinchilla site (MDL 309) to produce liquid fuels, such as diesel and jet fuels, and generate electricity. The Chinchilla project has an estimated indicated coal resource of 16 million tons in the area immediately surrounding the UCG gasification field. In May 2006, Newtron Pty Ltd held 62.79% of the Company's share capital. In October 2007, the Company acquired a 60% controlling interest in Yerostigaz in Uzbekistan. "

Number of shares: 389.6 million
Current price: $2.12
Market cap: About 825 million (I think, not aware of options???)

Company website:
http://www.lincenergy.com.au/

So, WTF is UCG?? Check this out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underground_Coal_Gasification

In particular:
Economics:
"Underground coal gasification allow access to more coal resources than economically recoverable by traditional technologies. By some estimates it will increase economically recoverable reserves by 600 million tonnes.[5] According to Linc Energy, the capital and operating costs of the underground coal gasification are lower than in traditional mining.[1]
A number of new projects are currently in planning and development stages across the globe.
Underground coal gasification product gas can also be used for:
* Synthesis of liquid fuels at a predicted cost equivalent to US$17/bbl
* Manufacture of chemicals such as ammonia and fertilizers
* In these roles it replaces the use of natural gas and can provide substantial cost savings"

Now, you know why I am excited about this technology! Gee, I am a sucker for fertilizers these days :-P

Particularly significant announcement was
Emerald Coal Drilling to Commence and Chinchilla Demo Plant Update
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=199383

Linc Energy to commence drilling for coking coal at Emerald.

Linc Energy update on GTL demonstration plant.

Linc Energy announced today that it is to commence drilling on its Emerald Coal Tenement EPC 980 known as “Teresa” within the next 7 days. Linc Energy has also applied for EPC1226 which is adjacent to its tenement and is an important part of its expanded drilling program.

German Creek Formation

Current data suggests the “Teresa” block holds significant coking coal potential. Over half of the EPC covers the German Creek Formation and also the Corvus Coal Seam. The aim of the drilling program is to establish a measured reserve for both seams in accordance with the JORC code. Subsequently, Linc Energy is commencing an extensive 40 to 50 hole drilling program to define the size of the potential coal resource. As part of the program a definitive Mincom model of the coal seams will be completed.

This significant coal property(EPC980) which lies just 15kms NW of the town of Emerald is particularly well placed from an infrastructure point of view, as it has major highway access, has ready access to power, and has an established rail line through the coal tenement.
Linc Energy’s CEO, Peter Bond said “This is a significant coal asset for the company. This next stage of drilling will determine just how significant it is. A coal property of this size with coking coal potential and in this location means

that anything’s possible. Linc Energy’s aim is to continue drilling the “Teresa" coal to establish a measured resource, at which point Linc Energy will seek “expressions of interest” to subsequently sell this well placed coal property, with expectations at this stage to have a sale agreement in place by the end of this year. Linc Energy is very much focussed on becoming Australia’s and indeed a world leader in coal to liquids production of high quality diesel and jet fuels utilising Linc Energy’s Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) and Gas to Liquids (GTL) process. Subsequently a potential coking coal deposit like “Teresa” falls outside of Linc Energy’s business plan, but is still valuable to the overall business outcome.

The “Teresa” coal tenement if proven as a coking coal asset as the data suggests, will bean extremely valuable coal property which once sold will have the potential to effectively underwrite the financing of Linc Energy’s commercial UCG/GTL facility proposed for the Chinchilla site.”

As an update to Linc Energy’s previous announcement regarding the GTL demonstration plant currently being commissioned at Chinchilla, Linc Energy can confirm that all the main utilities are commissioned and a great deal of progress has been made at the site. At this point of time there have been no significant issues with the GTL plant other than some delays with the piping work schedules.

Linc Energy’s CEO, Peter Bond said, “Linc Energy spends time on one section before moving to the next, with the aim that the final piping of each module is completed ahead of the commissioning of the previous module. The only challenge our schedule is facing is the time it takes to complete each module’s piping. This is taking longer than we would like, and has consequently caused a delay in our overall schedule by approximately 4 to 5 weeks. This has been frustrating because the easiest mechanical issue of welding pipes, is the one taking the most time. Other than the delay caused by the piping, everything else is going extremely well. The GTL demonstration plant at the Chinchilla site is an amazingly large and complex development that has come together very successfully.

It is one that we are all very proud of, and is a wonderful testament to the whole Linc team. Linc Energy, and its shareholders, are on the verge of becoming the worlds first UCG to GTL operational company by gaining access to stranded coal and unlocking vast amounts of energy and subsequently turning that cheap energy into high quality Diesel and Jet Fuel.” (see recent photos of the GTL facility that are attached)

If you require any more information on the “Teresa” coking coal drilling program at Emerald or the GTL demonstration plant please contact Mr Peter Bond on (07) 3229 0800.

_______________

Recent presentation:
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=199018

_______________

Activities report:
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=199108

_______________

BUY recommendation in BBY's analyst report as of April 28:
http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-11.pdf

_______________

Chart:
http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=lnc&x=0&y=0

_______________

IMHO, it is worth keeping an eye on LNC as well as MEE (which has just hit the magic 100 million market cap mark, enough to spark some insto interest!)

[tommy]

I hope some of you have got on board, LNC up a lazy 15% today (easy peasy, hehehe) on the back of today's market release titled

"PricewaterhouseCoopers Release a Comprehensive Report on the potential of Underground Coal Gasification(UCG)"
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=199407

[shasta]

I hope some of you have got on board, LNC up a lazy 15% today (easy peasy, hehehe) on the back of today's market release titled

"PricewaterhouseCoopers Release a Comprehensive Report on the potential of Underground Coal Gasification(UCG)"
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=199407

Tommy

Been tracking LNC since around 80c, & am flithy i never got onboard...

Too many gains already made on this & its my policy to not chase stocks that have run...

SXP/SXPO provides a cheaper leveraged opportunity to benefit from LNC.

[tommy]

Tommy

Been tracking LNC since around 80c, & am flithy i never got onboard...

Too many gains already made on this & its my policy to not chase stocks that have run...

SXP/SXPO provides a cheaper leveraged opportunity to benefit from LNC.

Thanx for your tips Shasta mate, will research SXP and SXPO!!

I know LNC had its run but when tech firms run, they run hard so I'm just exploiting the current sentiment :-P

UCG is the leader of UCG in Australia, and has practical knowhow derived from experienced staff in Russia, which is its edge over its competitors... hence the premium.

[tommy]

Ladies and Gents,

I hope I am not the only one enjoying another big fat 15% gain today :-)

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=AU%3Amak&draw.x=54&draw.y=17

UCG sector is on fire!!!

[bear]

Ladies and Gents,

I hope I am not the only one enjoying another big fat 15% gain today :-)

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=AU%3Amak&draw.x=54&draw.y=17

UCG sector is on fire!!!

tommy - well done for getting on this one

there is plenty more milage in this one yet so don't worry if you haven't got on yet.

For me there are five areas where this buisiness model is hard to beat

1. The technology - they have the best people in this industry who have plenty of experience.
2. Replicatable - it is proposed to roll out Linc Energy’s UCG /CTL operations across sites around the world (with approximately 10 sites identified and/or being evaluated in Australia and the U.S.A. alone) – with the aim of making Linc Energy capable of producing approximately 1 million barrels of Clean Fuel (diesel and jet fuels) per day.
3. The profit margin - the estimated cost of producing a barrel of diesel/ jet fuel is around $26 - current price per barrel is at least $US100 - margin say around $US75 - very profitable :D - million barrels per day!!
4. the available CSG resource is massive with huge amounts in Aust, USA etc
5. MOUs with significant or soon to be significant players in CSG area

multi-billion dollar company in the making :D

bear

discl. hold - not nearly enough though - unfortunately :(

[tommy]

Yo bear,

Glad I am not the only one bullish on LNC!

In addition to the points you raised, another strongpoint is that LNC now have EXPERIENCED personnel who have actually done UCG in Russia. Basically, they have minimized risk by snapping up staff of a company that has been engaged in UCG for doing it for 44 years!!!!! Very smart move (short cut) IMHO.

Excerpt from latest presentation:

"Linc now owns Yerostigaz

• In October 2007 Linc Energy acquired a 60% interest in Yerostigaz, which was a vital part
of the former Soviet Union’s (UCG) program and has been operating continuously since
1964.

• The Yerostigaz acquisition added 230 UCG experienced employees to the Linc Energy team.
[b]
• Yerostigaz is the only company in the world that has been commercially producing
Underground Coal Gas (UCG) for use as feedstock for the generation of power.
[b]
• Yerostigaz has an impressive commercial and environmental record that simply cannot be
matched after 44 years of operation.

• Linc now owns all the relevant intellectual property and Licensing of UCG associated with
the Russian intellectual property. "

[COLIN]

Pardon my ignorance but I presume that UCG (Underground Coal Gasification) is a totally different process from tapping into CSG (Coal Seam Gas).
I have also just seen a brief summary of tonight's Aust. Budget Address and saw some reference to do with clean coal being fast-tracked ahead of renewable energy. Is the Treasurer talking about UCG, CSG, or both, or whatever? I also notice that the share price of CXY (also into UCG) shot up today - has there been a Budget Leak that some have been able to capitalise on?
And, final question, addressed to our good friend Bermuda: Is the pursuit of UCG companies likely to be a more rewarding experience than concentrating on CSG prospects?

[tommy]

Hi COLIN,

Yeah, notice Cougar skyrocket today too... damn, I missed the rise :-P

Anyway, the following old article may be useful for you to understand why UCG may be preferred.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21346898-15023,00.html

Coal seam gas - one company steers clear

March 08, 2007

COUGAR Energy (CXY) believes it has enough coal gas to support a 40 megawatt power plant near Kingaroy, Queensland. But the company said it was looking at underground coal gasification (UCG) which involves converting the coal to gas before the latter is bought to the surface.

It said proponents of UCG say this is cheaper than using above ground gasification because there is no mining operation needed. But it adds that UCG is argued to be more efficient in utilising the entire energy in the coal than coal seam gas (CSG) extraction.

Cougar managing director Len Walker says that CSG recovers about 5 per cent of the energy in a coal seam, but his company's technology could retrieve between 70 per cent and 80 per cent of that energy. The former just taps the gas attached to the coal seams, while UCG actually converts the hard coal to gas.

This comes at a time when CSG is the energy flavour of the moment. It had its doubters in the past, but now the number of companies involved in CSG projects is well in double figures. And Queensland is becoming increasingly dependent on it.

Queensland is leading the way in this country, putting the CSG effort on its energy priority list. Last year state energy minister John Mickel said gas from coal seams would continue to dominate the state's energy initiatives and he was expecting hefty production increases.

The Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Water has estimated Queensland's total gas resources at 180 billion cubic metres - or 6.3 trillion cubic feet. Of that, 150 billion cubic metres are in the form of CSG. Only one sixth of the resource is in the form of conventional natural gas.

But Cougar's technology - which was developed in the old Soviet Union - involves producing a chemical change in the coal rather than just pumping the gas attached to the coal seams. In a nutshell, UCG is a process similar to the old fashioned method of city gas production which involved retorts in which burning coal and air combined to produce the gas.

Mr Walker said the drilling confirmed an area covering 2.5sq km containing a coal seam between 11.8m and 14.7m thick. "This area far exceeds the half a square kilometre required to develop a UCG plant feeding gas to a 40MW plant for a life of 30 years," he said.

[tommy]

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,23689805-14327,00.html


Federal Government Budget promises so far:
"$500 m for a National Clean Coal Fund including: $50 m in a Queensland pilot coal gasification plant, $50 m to demonstrate carbon capture in NSW and $ 5 m for mapping and testing carbon storage in Western Australia."

Will this "trickle down" to LNC???? Easy peasy...

[The Big Ease]

i must say im intrigued.
something different to a straight out miner and has some technology that adds to the economics of a project.

will have to look into it.

[bear]

Another analysts report - probably as a result of the current American roadshow

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-14.pdf

Ord value between $US3.70 - $US4.70 (ADR 10:1) $US37-$US47

bear

[tommy]

Thanks bear, you are a legend!

What da, $US3.70 - $US4.70??? mmm, I am sure I can live with that hehehe, not bad from $2.12 which was the price when I first opened the thread 4 days ago.

LNC retrace has not been acute, still hovering around $3 mark:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=AU%3Alnc&draw.x=0&draw.y=0

[pago]

Hi COLIN,

Yeah, notice Cougar skyrocket today too... damn, I missed the rise :-P

Anyway, the following old article may be useful for you to understand why UCG may be preferred.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21346898-15023,00.html

Coal seam gas - one company steers clear

March 08, 2007

COUGAR Energy (CXY) believes it has enough coal gas to support a 40 megawatt power plant near Kingaroy, Queensland. But the company said it was looking at underground coal gasification (UCG) which involves converting the coal to gas before the latter is bought to the surface.

It said proponents of UCG say this is cheaper than using above ground gasification because there is no mining operation needed. But it adds that UCG is argued to be more efficient in utilising the entire energy in the coal than coal seam gas (CSG) extraction.

Cougar managing director Len Walker says that CSG recovers about 5 per cent of the energy in a coal seam, but his company's technology could retrieve between 70 per cent and 80 per cent of that energy. The former just taps the gas attached to the coal seams, while UCG actually converts the hard coal to gas.

This comes at a time when CSG is the energy flavour of the moment. It had its doubters in the past, but now the number of companies involved in CSG projects is well in double figures. And Queensland is becoming increasingly dependent on it.

Queensland is leading the way in this country, putting the CSG effort on its energy priority list. Last year state energy minister John Mickel said gas from coal seams would continue to dominate the state's energy initiatives and he was expecting hefty production increases.

The Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Water has estimated Queensland's total gas resources at 180 billion cubic metres - or 6.3 trillion cubic feet. Of that, 150 billion cubic metres are in the form of CSG. Only one sixth of the resource is in the form of conventional natural gas.

But Cougar's technology - which was developed in the old Soviet Union - involves producing a chemical change in the coal rather than just pumping the gas attached to the coal seams. In a nutshell, UCG is a process similar to the old fashioned method of city gas production which involved retorts in which burning coal and air combined to produce the gas.

Mr Walker said the drilling confirmed an area covering 2.5sq km containing a coal seam between 11.8m and 14.7m thick. "This area far exceeds the half a square kilometre required to develop a UCG plant feeding gas to a 40MW plant for a life of 30 years," he said.

hi tommy,cougar is worth alook.cxy at 12c, cxyo at 6c ex 31/12/08 at 5c.obviously its all spec but cxy may run yet further like the others.cheers pago

[tommy]

Thanx pago for da thumbs up, but CXY needs to fill that gap... then I will buy in!!

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=AU%3Acxy&draw.x=54&draw.y=17

[bermuda]

Thanks guys for all this info which is simply fascinating. I remember reading about it a while ago but it drifted off the scale.

It needs more research and that I will do.Questions that need answering are

1. How come not many people know about it?
2. Why havent more coal fields been exploited?
3. Does this revalue ( upwards ) those companies with CSG permits that can now have their resource produce substantially more end product. No wonder Sapex has been firing. Others with underground Coal deposits could benefit enormously.
4.What are the major gas and coal companies views on all this.

It all 'seams' to good to be be true but it is worth further discussion because the potential is simply amazing.

My initial thoughts are that it will be good for CSG players.

[tommy]

1. How come not many people know about it?

Because it is still in the very early stages, commercial implementation is yet to begin so its economic feasibility has not been tested/proven in the western world.

2. Why havent more coal fields been exploited?

Because the technology isn't widespread... yet. You just can't dig a hole and expect the coal to magically turn into gas and extract the thing efficiently without the right knowhow.

3. Does this revalue ( upwards ) those companies with CSG permits that can now have their resource produce substantially more end product. No wonder Sapex has been firing. Others with underground Coal deposits could benefit enormously.

Yes, revaluation is certainly occuring... juniors are attracting more attention following increased awareness of what LNC, MEE and CXY are doing.

4.What are the major gas and coal companies views on all this.
Google it you will find plenty :-)
_________________

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=EB8E8357-1871-E587-E1DF240F73076A8E

There's No Missing Linc
FN Arena News - May 15 2008

By Greg Peel

FNArena first brought Linc Energy (LNC) to readers' attention in August 2006. The Queensland-based company planned to become a world leader in the combined processes of underground coal gasification (UCL) and gas to liquid (GTL) conversion by turning coal into gas and gas into diesel on-site at its Chinchilla coal mine. Linc is presently close to completion of its 10 barrel per day demonstration plant.

To learn all about the process and the history of Linc see "Coal-To-Oil: Linc Aspires To World Leadership" (Australia: 05/08/06).

This week Linc has achieved a major milestone in lodging a mining lease application (MLA) with the Queensland government for a commercial scale UCG/GTL plant in Chinchilla. Linc is no stranger to the state government, having been awarded Significant Project status in May last year. On the assumption the demonstration plant proves the process is commercially viable, Linc's medium term plan is to build a 20,000 barrel per day plant at Chinchilla, which at this stage is targeted for completion around end-2010. But Linc also plans to begin taking its technology global in 2008.

The MLA is the first step required before obtaining an Environmental Licence and finally a Mining Lease, allowing Linc to fulfil its dream of "producing huge mounts of energy" in a relatively small area, as Linc's laconic CEO Peter Bond put it in this week's announcement. The beauty of the process is the gasification occurs underground, and only the liquification plant sits on the surface. Carbon dioxide released in the process is captured and converted, and the diesel product at the end of the chain is much cleaner and produces much fewer of its own nasties when burnt than conventional diesel. Gasification can also be implemented in coal reserves that are not suitable for commercial coal mining, or in existing mines that have reached the end of their commercial viability.

The MLA in question covers three mining leases within a 10,000ha area. 27% of the area has been test-drilled and JORC reserves of coal total 401 million tonnes. Active exploration is underway in the other 73%. When Linc listed in May 2006 the oil price was around US$70/bbl. The annual contract price of coal has tripled in 2008.

Late last year Linc acquired a 60% stake in Russian company Yerostigaz, a company operating since 1964 and a vital part of the former Soviet Union's UCG program. The process was invented by Russian scientists who were captured by Hitler and put to work in WWII. Apart from further development in apartheid South Africa - when the country was under sanction and couldn't buy oil - the process saw little further development given the abundance and low price of crude. Clearly the story is different in the 21st century, and Linc is at the global forefront of coal-to-oil technology.

With its 60% stake in Yerostigaz, Linc has added 230 employees experienced in UCG/GTL to its team.

Linc is not covered for analysis by any of the major stock broking houses in Australia which form the FNArena database. It has, however, recently been covered by US firm Merriman Curhan Ford, who has a Buy rating on the stock. FNArena noted in "Quotes & Shorts" on April 24 that Linc - which was listed in May 2006 at 25c - received a speeding ticket when the stock jumped 26% in one day to $1.62. The only explanation the company could give is that CEO Peter Bond and team had just begun a roadshow to potential investors in the US, where the stock is listed in ADR (American Depository Receipts) form.

Well this week the stock hit $3.00. While clearly a lot of upside has now been missed by those not already in the shares, Merriman stated on Monday "Despite the recent run in the stock, we believe there is still much room for upside given strong oil pricing trends and the potential for reducing dilution through coal sales". If Linc needs funds, it can just sell some coal.

At $3.00 on the ASX the equivalent US-listed ADR price is about US$28 (shares are bundled). Merriman revised its target range on Monday to US$37-47. The stock has run very hard very fast, and may be due for a pullback once the initial US interest is saturated. However, as a longer term investment Linc has not yet reached its potential, in the broker's view.

[tommy]

LNC makes another achievement:
_____________

LINC ENERGY MAKES ITS FIRST MOVE INTO CHINA ENERGY MARKET

Linc Energy announces MOU with the Huadian Coal Industry Group from China.
Linc Energy Ltd (ASX LNC) is pleased to advise that a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has been executed with the Huadian Coal Industry Group (Huadian Coal) from China.

The Huadian Coal is owned by both the China Huadian Corporation and the Huadian Power International Corporation. The China Huadian Corporation is one of only five companies within China that is permitted to generate power.

The Huadian Coal is one of China’s largest coal mining companies. They produce over 30 Million tonnes of coal a year and own in excess of 23 Billion Tonnes of coal in over 21 provinces throughout China. Huadian Coal see Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) as an important source of clean energy for both power and liquid fuels production.

Linc Energy and Huadian Coal intend to jointly pursue opportunities to utilise Linc Energy’s UCG technology and expertise in Gas-to-Liquids within China. In addition the two groups will investigate investment opportunities whereby Huadian Coal may invest in Linc Energy and possibly some of Linc Energy’s Australian projects.

Justyn Peters, Linc Energy’s General Manager of Business Development, stated: “Linc Energy has been approached by numerous international companies with proposals to enter into commercial agreements. We choose our partners carefully and we are pleased to join with the Huadian Coal Industry Group. They are an extremely large and ambitious company, with a growth philosophy similar to ours at Linc Energy. The potential for UCG to become a major supplier of clean fuels to China is enormous, and the MOU is a first step towards unlocking some of this potential growth.”

CEO of Linc Energy, Peter Bond, stated: “Huadian Coal Industry Group and their parent company, China Huadian Corporation, are one of the largest producers of coal and power in China. As we are all aware, China has a huge and growing demand for energy in both power and liquid fuels. This growing demand for clean energy and liquid fuels presents Linc Energy with not only a great commercial opportunity, but it will also allow Linc Energy, as an Australian clean coal company, to make an important contribution to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in China. We very much look forward to working closely with the Huadian Coal Industry Group.”


Linc Energy and Huadian Coal will commence detailed negotiations during 2008 to establish their first joint venture UCG project in China.
It should also be noted that this is a non-exclusive MOU, subsequently allowing Linc Energy to pursue other prospective partnerships in China as they appropriately arise.

For further information about this announcement please contact Mr Justyn Peters, General Manager, Business Development (07) 3229 0800.

Craig Ricato Company Secretary & General Counsel
26 May 2008

[Huang Chung]

There is a 2 page spread on Linc in the June issue of Wheels magazine...in case anyone is interested.

[bear]

Results of trial plant are only a matter of a few weeks away or earlier

should on the back of favourable testing reach the next level.

Have $A21m in cash but will need more to get through the next phase

will buy more if it heads below $2.70

bear

[JBmurc]

worth a look if you like the LNC story
-has not been listed yet as 100% owned by STX but will do soon (stx holders should get first dibs on cheap shares)In talking with STX's MD the total resource sounds likely to be alot bigger than current 578mt -STX Mrkcap 100mill will have cashflows over 4mill per month soon

-http://www.hybridenergyaustralia.com.au/index.htm

[tommy]

LNC up 13%!

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=AU%3Alnc&draw.x=54&draw.y=17

"Linc Energy MOU for entry into China Energy Market" announcement finally being absorbed or what?

[bear]

LNC up 13%!

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=AU%3Alnc&draw.x=54&draw.y=17

"Linc Energy MOU for entry into China Energy Market" announcement finally being absorbed or what?

Nice gain today - a little annoyed i sold a few at $3 but plenty of potential bargins out there

You still holding Tommy??

Todays action more to do with anticipation of the pilot results than the Chinese link imho

Market cap pretty big now at $A1.458b but huge demand and higher highs. Due for a breather but will be close to $4.50 on successful results

Bear

[tommy]

LNC up another 10%, smashing 4 bucks and into the blue sky now... this is an amazing stock. True winner!

[LittleMak]

Latest BBY Research 19 may 2008

Recommendation: BUY
DCF Valuation - $6.44/sh
12 month share price target - $5.50/sh


In line with the revised oil price assumptions released today, we will be updating our financial model for Linc Energy (LNC). Our long term oil price assumption is now US$75/bbl
(prev US$65/bbl).

Not changing any other assumptions as per our previous note on LNC (12 June 2008), our DCF valuation for Chinchilla only increases to A$6.40/sh. We leave our price target at
A$5.50/sh until successful commissioning of the pilot plant in Chinchilla is announced.

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-15.pdf


Enjoy the coming good times Shareholders!!!

LM

[bear]

$100m placement at $3.70 (circa 27m shares) and good progress being made on the demo plant

All good for the next phase (securing Sapex and diesel liquids) in the near future

A little retracement lately but we've come a long way in a very short period

Bear

ps folks should look to buy on dips as this will be a leader within 3-5 years

[macduffy]

Not content with a small interest in Coal Seam Methane (AOE,BOW ), I'd like to have a piece of the action in Underground Coal Gas.
Has anyone a view on the respective merits of LNC, CNX,CXY and GLX?
Researching these companies will be next month's project!

:)

[bear]

Not content with a small interest in Coal Seam Methane (AOE,BOW ), I'd like to have a piece of the action in Underground Coal Gas.
Has anyone a view on the respective merits of LNC, CNX,CXY and GLX?
Researching these companies will be next month's project!

:)
Hi Macduffy

I'm biased but my preference is LNC and CNX (hold both):)

LNC by far the most advanced focusing (demostration trial almost complete) more on clean diesel but also power generation
CNX backed by IPL focusing primarily on power generation and use with respect to IPLs activities and projects.

However the syngas product produced is flexible (plant obviously less so)

Am bullish on this area of energy production

check out their respective websites and don't take too long researching. This sector will move when LNC trial is announced as being succesful

good luck Bear

[macduffy]

Thanks, bear.
I like what I've found so far, possibly leaning towards CNX - I like the fact that CSIRO as well as IPL is there in a meaningful way. Will keep looking into LNC.
I take your point about speed of action. We could see some important announcements from both companies before long.
As an aside, the CNX thread relates to a company called Connectionz, not that its been active recently. We may have to resurrect it for Carbon Energy!

;)

[shasta]

Thanks, bear.
I like what I've found so far, possibly leaning towards CNX - I like the fact that CSIRO as well as IPL is there in a meaningful way. Will keep looking into LNC.
I take your point about speed of action. We could see some important announcements from both companies before long.
As an aside, the CNX thread relates to a company called Connectionz, not that its been active recently. We may have to resurrect it for Carbon Energy!

;)

Interesting article concerning UCG, re Linc Energy (wonder what this does for CSG as well?)

Linc Energy shares rally after early plunge


Andrew Fraser | August 08, 2008

THE Queensland Government last night backed away from a statement claiming that it would not issue any new licences for underground coal gasification technology for three years -- but not before the share prices of the two main companies operating in the area dropped dramatically.

A statement to The Australian on Wednesday from Queensland Mines and Energy Minister Geoff Wilson said the department "has no intention of granting production tenures for underground coal gasification for at least three years".

After this statement appeared in yesterday's edition of The Australian, the share price of Linc Energy, the main company in the field, dropped immediately from an opening of $3.38 to $2.82.

But when Linc Energy issued a statement to the market at 10.20am in which it denied that the Queensland Government had made such an announcement, its price rallied slightly to close at $2.93.

This respresented a drop of just under 13 per cent during the day, or a loss of about $150 million of value in the company.

Perth-based Carbon Energy, which also has interests in underground coal gasification, had an even more dramatic drop, closing at 37c, a drop of 35 per cent during the day.

Mr Wilson issued a statement late yesterday in which there was no mention of a three-year moratorium, and he would only say that the Queensland Government "would only do what was best for Queensland in relation to underground coal gasification technology on trial in the state".

He said the Queensland Government would not grant production tenures for any technology that was untried and untested in Australian conditions.
"These projects are in a pilot phase which is why they have a conditional tenure and that gives no automatic right to a production tenure at a later point," he said.

"We're not about to give the green light to underground coal gasification projects, especially where any of them may affect the Great Artesian Basin, unless we're convinced it's in the best interests of Queensland."

The Queensland Government made its statement as a court battle continued between Linc Energy and coal seam methane gas producers Queensland Gas concerning access to coal-rich fields in the Surat Basin west of Brisbane.

Linc Energy has tenements over land near Chinchilla, where it has a pilot plant burning coal underground using technology that originally came out of the Soviet Union.

But while it has these tenements under the Minerals and Resources Act, Queensland Gas has tenements over the same land under the Petroleum and Natural Gas act.

This case, in the Queensland Supreme Court, has been continuing this week.

While multiple tenements have existed before, the main issue in this instance is that production of coal seam methane and underground coal gasification technology are broadly incompatible, because the latter involves burning the former.

[Trent]

http://fossil.energy.gov/international/Publications/ucg_1106_llnl_burton.pdf

I have been following UCG for a while. This article contains useful information about the potential for groundwater contamination due to the operation of UCG plants. Geology and operating conditions appear crucial if groundwater effects are to be avoided.
T

[shasta]

http://fossil.energy.gov/international/Publications/ucg_1106_llnl_burton.pdf

I have been following UCG for a while. This article contains useful information about the potential for groundwater contamination due to the operation of UCG plants. Geology and operating conditions appear crucial if groundwater effects are to be avoided.
T

Wow talk about a large cash injection & the SP flying...:eek:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=202900

[shasta]

Wow talk about a large cash injection & the SP flying...:eek:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=202900

Increase in JORC resource at Chinchilla :eek:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=203002

[bear]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080911/pdf/31c7kk4r2dnqp9.pdf

further fantastic news which will increase my largest holding even more :D

unfortunately was looking to top up ..... as this will take off even more when liquids arrive... very good value below $4.30

bear

[bear]

Linc Energy produces first GTL Liquids at Chinchilla Site (https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=2068318)

abosolutely fantastic news and great timing with huge day likely

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20081014/pdf/31cw0zsn0cgptn.pdf

could also be good for others in the sector

Bear

[bermuda]

Linc Energy produces first GTL Liquids at Chinchilla Site (https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=2068318)

abosolutely fantastic news and great timing with huge day likely

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20081014/pdf/31cw0zsn0cgptn.pdf

could also be good for others in the sector

Bear

Thanks Bear.Have got some CNX as do not want to be left out of this story. Could go exponential.

[shasta]

Thanks Bear.Have got some CNX as do not want to be left out of this story. Could go exponential.

LNC - Commits UCG project to South Australia

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=205749

I'm having another look at LNC after it's selling a coal asset for $A1.5b

[temptation]

I don't understand what is happening with this share.....
They've got a deal to sell the Emerald coal tenements for 1.5 billion, which is 25% more than the market cap.
Their UCG/GTL technology looks more exciting than CSG/LNG.
Yesterdays announcement claims that they have the coal reserves and the technology to produce the equivalent of 1 million barrels of diesel/A1 per day for 60 years, and the SP went down!

[shasta]

I don't understand what is happening with this share.....
They've got a deal to sell the Emerald coal tenements for 1.5 billion, which is 25% more than the market cap.
Their UCG/GTL technology looks more exciting than CSG/LNG.
Yesterdays announcement claims that they have the coal reserves and the technology to produce the equivalent of 1 million barrels of diesel/A1 per day for 60 years, and the SP went down!

The market is rightly skeptical of such deals until the money is in the bank, as the ASX is littered with companies that have had deals go sour.

UCG is more efficient than CSG & has far better recovery %ages...

and then you get all of SXP's assets too...

Remember of course there will be tax to pay on the Emerald sale

[temptation]

What I don't understand is that when all the other stocks were getting sold off from June to September, LNC held up and achieved new highs in advance of the SAPEX takeover. The LNC shares were valued at $4.88 for the purposes of the Sapex transaction. Since the Sapex deal was confirmed the news continues to be very encouraging, but the SP has now fallen nearly 60%.

[Crypto Crude]

Shasta,
you are right about this UCG...
Ive been doing some research and this could very much so be the real deal...
some risks still involved... heaps happening at the moment with BG playing dominant role and pushing UCG out of Queensland...
this has caused LNC to move to South Australia where im reading of some phenominal reserves down there...
8 Billion tonnes of Coal, and LNC can turn 1 tonne of coal into 1.5 barrels of Diesel...
identified 8-10 target capable of producing 100,000 barrel of diesel per day for 60 years... I mean, this is so big I cant imagine the upside scope
without butterflies...

this stock could be a few hundred dollars per share down the line...
A contact of mine told me management are crooks? anyone heard anything?

I accepted what my source told me at first, but the potential keeps coming back...
If market starts to factor in the realisation on UCG, then this will grow very very big...
Thanks shasta...
unless material change occurs I will likely make a big play on UCG late next year once CUE performs...

ive only just begun my journey with UCG, I am awear of the risks, but this dominates CSG 8 times more efficient, and Ive read up to 15 times more efficient...
surely you must be thinking of buyin shasta in the new year? wow...
this is too big too imagine... bigger blue sky potential than anything Ive ever seen before, and thats still with a billion dollar plus company...
for real...
:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

Shasta,
you are right about this UCG...
Ive been doing some research and this could very much so be the real deal...
some risks still involved... heaps happening at the moment with BG playing dominant role and pushing UCG out of Queensland...
this has caused LNC to move to South Australia where im reading of some phenominal reserves down there...
8 Billion tonnes of Coal, and LNC can turn 1 tonne of coal into 1.5 barrels of Diesel...
identified 8-10 target capable of producing 100,000 barrel of diesel per day for 60 years... I mean, this is so big I cant imagine the upside scope
without butterflies...

this stock could be a few hundred dollars per share down the line...
A contact of mine told me management are crooks? anyone heard anything?

I accepted what my source told me at first, but the potential keeps coming back...
If market starts to factor in the realisation on UCG, then this will grow very very big...
Thanks shasta...
unless material change occurs I will likely make a big play on UCG late next year once CUE performs...

ive only just begun my journey with UCG, I am awear of the risks, but this dominates CSG 8 times more efficient, and Ive read up to 15 times more efficient...
surely you must be thinking of buyin shasta in the new year? wow...
this is too big too imagine... bigger blue sky potential than anything Ive ever seen before, and thats still with a billion dollar plus company...
for real...
:cool:
.^sc

I really like New Hope Corp (NHC) they own just over 17% of AOE, & also have a "coal to liquids project" that they are playing down

They have a ton of coal & there own infrastructure, & i like them alot...

But LNC can potentially produce alot of diesel/jet fuel very cheap...

LNC would actually want higher oil prices, to gain more customers

What i really like about LNC, & it's advantage over others...

In October 2007, Linc Energy acquired a 60% controlling interest in Yerostigaz in Uzbekistan. This acquisition not only gave Linc Energy control of the then 48-year old company, but it also cemented Linc Energy's place firmly as the largest UCG company in the world. Yerostigaz, which was a vital part of the former Soviet Union's Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) program, has been operating continuously since 1964 and is the only commercial UCG operation in the world.

UCG is a key element in Linc Energy's quest to become a leading producer of ultra-clean diesel, jet fuels and power generation.

The Yerostigaz acquisition added 230-plus experienced employees to the Linc Energy team and allowed it to have effective ownership of a significant piece of the intellectual property and know-how of UCG. The additional employees and expertise to handle an increase in commercial operations,paves the way for Linc Energy to move forward on expanding UCG operations in several other locations around the world including China, India, USA and Australia.


I had an order in for LNC at 5,000 @ 78c when the SP was 80c, it gapped up that day to 85.5c & took off, hitting $4 at one point not long after!

I've had my eye on LNC for a while, but i don't chase stocks!

It's retrace has me interested, so i may well jump in next year

[shasta]

I really like New Hope Corp (NHC) they own just over 17% of AOE, & also have a "coal to liquids project" that they are playing down

They have a ton of coal & there own infrastructure, & i like them alot...

But LNC can potentially produce alot of diesel/jet fuel very cheap...

LNC would actually want higher oil prices, to gain more customers

What i really like about LNC, & it's advantage over others...

In October 2007, Linc Energy acquired a 60% controlling interest in Yerostigaz in Uzbekistan. This acquisition not only gave Linc Energy control of the then 48-year old company, but it also cemented Linc Energy's place firmly as the largest UCG company in the world. Yerostigaz, which was a vital part of the former Soviet Union's Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) program, has been operating continuously since 1964 and is the only commercial UCG operation in the world.

UCG is a key element in Linc Energy's quest to become a leading producer of ultra-clean diesel, jet fuels and power generation.

The Yerostigaz acquisition added 230-plus experienced employees to the Linc Energy team and allowed it to have effective ownership of a significant piece of the intellectual property and know-how of UCG. The additional employees and expertise to handle an increase in commercial operations,paves the way for Linc Energy to move forward on expanding UCG operations in several other locations around the world including China, India, USA and Australia.


I had an order in for LNC at 5,000 @ 78c when the SP was 80c, it gapped up that day to 85.5c & took off, hitting $4 at one point not long after!

I've had my eye on LNC for a while, but i don't chase stocks!

It's retrace has me interested, so i may well jump in next year

LNC making all the right moves...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=206303

[Crypto Crude]

Thanks for replying Shasta,
I am looking to join you in 2009...
:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

Thanks for replying Shasta,
I am looking to join you in 2009...
:cool:
.^sc

LNC - The story just keeps getting better ;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=206447

[Crypto Crude]

shasta,
why the sudden need to tip osh and lnc on your watchlist?
:cool:
.^sc

[AMR]

shasta,
why the sudden need to tip osh and lnc on your watchlist?
:cool:
.^sc

USD going down hard => Oil up!

[shasta]

shasta,
why the sudden need to tip osh and lnc on your watchlist?
:cool:
.^sc

I wouldn't use the term "tip", i'm not advising anyone to follow what i do!

They meets "my" criteria & thought i'd share what im looking at (doubt anyone would bother though :D)

NHC & OSH have plenty of cash already with great projects, LNC & AOE are getting funds from sales/farm ins very soon...

Basically i'm looking at larger cashed up companies with decent projects.

AOE, NHC, LNC & OSH meet this criteria.

If you view the relevant threads you'll see i've had my eye on them for a while

[shasta]

I wouldn't use the term "tip", i'm not advising anyone to follow what i do!

They meets "my" criteria & thought i'd share what im looking at (doubt anyone would bother though :D)

NHC & OSH have plenty of cash already with great projects, LNC & AOE are getting funds from sales/farm ins very soon...

Basically i'm looking at larger cashed up companies with decent projects.

AOE, NHC, LNC & OSH meet this criteria.

If you view the relevant threads you'll see i've had my eye on them for a while

LNC - Response to ASX SP query

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=206637

I wana see LNC come out & confirm the $1.5b coal deal is a goer before i part with any cash :rolleyes:

[temptation]

I know these are volatile times, but there is something strange about the volatility of this share. I'm glad that I sold my SXPO for cash rather than take the LNC offer with their share valued at $4.88. It closed today at $2.05. Why would the share drop 55% since September when they keep releasing good news, and assurances about the Emerald deal?

[Crypto Crude]

Hey,
I see LNC fallen quite a bit shasta...
enough time to pull it from your tip list...
hehehehe...

templeton, just remember that this is a specy investment...
Its proven and all that but the market is very fearful, and particulary on exploration and startup type investments...
Looking good here... that does not mean it will perform in the short to medium term...
shasta is onto a winner here...
:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

Hey,
I see LNC fallen quite a bit shasta...
enough time to pull it from your tip list...
hehehehe...

templeton, just remember that this is a specy investment...
Its proven and all that but the market is very fearful, and particulary on exploration and startup type investments...
Looking good here... that does not mean it will perform in the short to medium term...
shasta is onto a winner here...
:cool:
.^sc

I'm unsure about LNC, until such time as the $1.5b deal goes thru & it's sitting in the LNC bank a/c.

The price offered was quite rich, & coal prices have cooled off since...

The offtake agreement for 14000 bpd (70% of capacity) looks great, but they will need the cash from the deal to fund them into production.

The market doesn't like uncertainty & nor do i

[shasta]

I'm unsure about LNC, until such time as the $1.5b deal goes thru & it's sitting in the LNC bank a/c.

The price offered was quite rich, & coal prices have cooled off since...

The offtake agreement for 14000 bpd (70% of capacity) looks great, but they will need the cash from the deal to fund them into production.

The market doesn't like uncertainty & nor do i

Never hurts to wait for "full confirmation" of deals before buying :eek:

Linc's coalfield sale to Chinese buyer veers off the rails

AUSTRALIAN energy company Linc Energy said the $1.5 billion sale of its Teresa coal tenements to Xinwen Mining Group has been delayed and it is now talking to other potential buyers.

"In the light of a number of issues, including complications associated with the global financial crisis and the upcoming Christmas and New Year break, it appears unlikely Linc Energy will be able to complete the exchange of documents and receive payment of the $150 million deposit by the end of December 2008," the Brisbane-based company said yesterday.

The sale may take as long as another eight weeks to complete, Linc said in a statement to the Australian stock exchange. The energy company is in talks with "non-Chinese groups" about selling the tenements.

"This is a very high-quality asset with numerous parties wishing to purchase it," Linc's chief executive Peter Bond said. "Following discussions with various parties over the last month, I am more confident now of a successful sale than I have ever been."

In August, Linc said Shandong-based Xinwen had agreed to buy two coal exploration permits in Queensland.

[shasta]

Market seems to be factoring back in the coal permit sale (for $A1.5b).

Over the last trading week LNC hit a low of $1.50, & is now trading around $2.12

Am expecting LNC to sail thru $3 when the confirmation of the sale hits the ASX.

Not buying yet...

[The Big Ease]

still getting hammered.
potential multi-bagger if you want to back the chinese saving face.
it would be unlike them to agree to a deal and then back out, but you never know.

[shasta]

still getting hammered.
potential multi-bagger if you want to back the chinese saving face.
it would be unlike them to agree to a deal and then back out, but you never know.

That's what worries me, the chinese are usually very reliable, & tend not to renege on deals.

If LNC doesn't have other parties willing to pay the $1.5b, i wonder if the Chinese will try & renegotiate the price down a bit, say to $1.0-1.2b?

Anything over $1b & LNC is well placed, i'm watching & waiting until the money is in the bank before acting.

In this market it's too risky to assume :confused:

[shasta]

Wow cash getting low, where's the Chinese coal sale?

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=207369

Could see some SP weakness come Monday?

[shasta]

Wow cash getting low, where's the Chinese coal sale?

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=207369

Could see some SP weakness come Monday?

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=207563

Anyone seen the story being referred to?

[The Big Ease]

yeah, doubts about the sale.
hints about a lower price from another party.

even if they get half the price, the sp would at a discount to cash backing.
and you get the business for nothing.
linc would appear to be value at these rates.

[marknz88]

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25009191-5005200,00.html

Not looking to good.

This will drop like a fly i presume once announced that the Chinese deal is off. Could be good to pick up a few once the falling knife has found support for future sale of their coal tenement

[shasta]

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25009191-5005200,00.html

Not looking to good.

This will drop like a fly i presume once announced that the Chinese deal is off. Could be good to pick up a few once the falling knife has found support for future sale of their coal tenement

Cheers for that.

Yup i'm expecting a knee jerk reaction by the market which could drop LNC below $1, on confirmation the Chinese deal is off.

As i've said earlier in the thread, anything over $A1.0b is a bloody good deal & will fully fund Linc into production.

Just makes me thing how lucky NHC were to sell there coal deposits for $2.45b, & they now have that amount earning interest in the bank!

Anything under a $1 will be worth a punt, as they will eventually sell the coal tenement, it's just at what price :confused:

[shasta]

Cheers for that.

Yup i'm expecting a knee jerk reaction by the market which could drop LNC below $1, on confirmation the Chinese deal is off.

As i've said earlier in the thread, anything over $A1.0b is a bloody good deal & will fully fund Linc into production.

Just makes me thing how lucky NHC were to sell there coal deposits for $2.45b, & they now have that amount earning interest in the bank!

Anything under a $1 will be worth a punt, as they will eventually sell the coal tenement, it's just at what price :confused:

LNC - Responds to media article

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=207582

Also looking to sell off other non core coal assets.

Hopefully this will all be sorted out during February :confused:

[The Big Ease]

what is the worst that could happen with this stock?

there are reportedly numerous parties they are negotiating with and since the original chinese HOA for 1.5billion, they have gone onto prove up further coal in the permit. so even if they sold it for 1billion or 750million, that is still more than the current market cap.

[shasta]

what is the worst that could happen with this stock?

there are reportedly numerous parties they are negotiating with and since the original chinese HOA for 1.5billion, they have gone onto prove up further coal in the permit. so even if they sold it for 1billion or 750million, that is still more than the current market cap.

The SP would suggest the market think's the Chinese will renege!

I would like to see LNC management clarify exactly where things are at, & if possible openly discuss there "Plan B", with regards to any renegotiations, or other likely buyers.

The coal permit must be worth a minimum of $A500m, surely?

[shasta]

The SP would suggest the market think's the Chinese will renege!

I would like to see LNC management clarify exactly where things are at, & if possible openly discuss there "Plan B", with regards to any renegotiations, or other likely buyers.

The coal permit must be worth a minimum of $A500m, surely?

Seems LNC folk are reading my posts :eek::D

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=208408

[The Big Ease]

thanks for all your good work in here shasta.

in the latest announcement, this caught my attention:


Mr Justyn Peters, General Manager of Business Development, said, “I remain extremely confident of reaching a positive outcome in these negotiations. Both parties have been working tirelessly to complete the sale, but unfortunately the complexities of the transaction, the Chinese approval process and the current global financial crisis have delayed the completion more than we could have anticipated. That said, we have now reached a stage where neither party can foresee any further lengthy delays.”

i can see a big bounce in the market tomorrow.
but the possibility of a continuing downtrend will keep me away.
he sure sounds bullish. waiting for confirmation will mean missing out on a 2-4 bagger from here. fortune favours the brave.

its an awfully exciting company, for sure.

[shasta]

thanks for all your good work in here shasta.

in the latest announcement, this caught my attention:



i can see a big bounce in the market tomorrow.
but the possibility of a continuing downtrend will keep me away.
he sure sounds bullish. waiting for confirmation will mean missing out on a 2-4 bagger from here. fortune favours the brave.

its an awfully exciting company, for sure.

LNC - Resource upgrade at Chinchilla

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=208495

A bit like Arrow, Linc seems to be doing all the right things...

Just need that coal sale funds to hit the bank & off she goes...

[Crypto Crude]

hey shasta,
For a moment lets forget about the sale of Coal Assets...

On The UCG process that LNC has, do you think way down the line Linc could be trading at $50, $100 per share?

do you have any concerns over management, (can they be trusted)...
or have you heard anything....?

boy,its some mighty large coal resource they got there eah...
thanks...
:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

hey shasta,
For a moment lets forget about the sale of Coal Assets...

On The UCG process that LNC has, do you think way down the line Linc could be trading at $50, $100 per share?

do you have any concerns over management, (can they be trusted)...
or have you heard anything....?

boy,its some mighty large coal resource they got there eah...
thanks...
:cool:
.^sc

No i don't think Linc will be trading at those share prices unless they do a share consolidation, it may well double or better during 2009 though :confused:

At $1.22 LNC has a market cap of ~$A500m, i'd wanna see some "firmer" figures about forecast revenues, & margins, but the costs of production seem low, here's a good reminder of them...

BTW $50 per share = `~$A20b Market Cap :eek:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=198958

As the UCG technology becomes more widespread (& needs oil at much higher prices to become a viable mainstream alternative), others will enter the UCG market, Linc has the 1st mover advantage however.

New Hope (NHC) are already talking about a CTL/UCG viability study (& they have over $A1b cash to make it happen if they want to).

As for Management seem alright, i'd wait & see if they can bring LNC into production on time & within budget before passing judgement, but so far so good.

LNC are aiming for a long life 20,000 bbls per day project, & have an offtake agreement for 70% (14,000 bbls) already with BP, & you would have seen/heard the AIR NZ bio fuel trials recently that were successful, so i'm sure the remaining 30% of production will be snapped up by an airline at some stage?

With the drop off in SP i'm more interested in LNC, as i believe they will get a good price for the coal sale.

It's a very important milestone as they will require the funds to get Chinchilla up & running to capacity...

Watch the volume, ahead of any announcements ;)

[The Big Ease]

this stock has really got me thinking.

before the sale came on the agenda, it was floating around 2-3 dollars.
the market had already deteriorated by that stage, so what is so dramatically different for it to be worth half that price now, though with a sale clearly on the horizon.

imo it is a given that the price of the theresa coal sale will be less than 1.5bill though they will probably make up the shortfall with the sale of the other two tenements they have put up for sale.

so what is the problem? hmmmmm it looks very interesting.
the market seems to have discounted a sale altogether.

[Crypto Crude]

shasta-
No i don't think Linc will be trading at those share prices unless they do a share consolidation, it may well double or better during 2009 though :confused:

At $1.22 LNC has a market cap of ~$A500m, i'd wanna see some "firmer" figures about forecast revenues, & margins, but the costs of production seem low, here's a good reminder of them...

BTW $50 per share = `~$A20b Market Cap :eek:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=198958 (http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=198958)

As the UCG technology becomes more widespread (& needs oil at much higher prices to become a viable mainstream alternative), others will enter the UCG market, Linc has the 1st mover advantage however.

New Hope (NHC) are already talking about a CTL/UCG viability study (& they have over $A1b cash to make it happen if they want to).

As for Management seem alright, i'd wait & see if they can bring LNC into production on time & within budget before passing judgement, but so far so good.

LNC are aiming for a long life 20,000 bbls per day project, & have an offtake agreement for 70% (14,000 bbls) already with BP, & you would have seen/heard the AIR NZ bio fuel trials recently that were successful, so i'm sure the remaining 30% of production will be snapped up by an airline at some stage?

With the drop off in SP i'm more interested in LNC, as i believe they will get a good price for the coal sale.

It's a very important milestone as they will require the funds to get Chinchilla up & running to capacity...

Watch the volume, ahead of any announcements ;)


ok shasta,
thank you for your reply...
I certainly believe LNC has a path to one dollar per share...
this is a major call...
Ive never seen this sort of leverage for a company valued at roughly 500 million dollars...
yup one dollar sounds outrageous...
Im talking very long term... say 20 years...

LNC can convert 1 tonne of coal into 1.5 barrels of Diesel (oil)....
The diesel is pure white.... probably the best quality diesel on the entire markete... LNC have gigantic Coal assets in SA with the merger of SPX....
I read 8 billion tonnes... so what 12 billion barrels of diesel....
what about Queensland...
LNC have announced it in their market statements that they have found 8-10 key areas capable of producing 100,000 barrels of pure diesel per day....
and there are others...

....
Im no way talking this up to Exxon level, but you can quickly see how big this could be....

Exxon had a market cap of 314 billion on the last trading day.... daily production of almost 4million barrels of oil (BOE)...

well if LNC got 1million barrels (say BOE), then that would be say an 80Billion market cap, and say 200 bucks per LNC share...
now sure this is very very long term....
The World only consumes 82 million barrels of oil per day (give or take)...
to have say one of those million is so big its unbelieve...
Its as if we must be into pie in the sky stuff here eah....

I strongly recommend anyone holding LNC or thinking about this investment, to watch these video links....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtiztKeZgPg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gHvIAPUIjI

ok, so in the second link Peter Bond talks of targeting 1/4 to 1/2 a million barrel production per day...
conservative enough given the depth of coal assets....
even if you say punch those numbers into the Exxon example you come up with a market cap of 40 billion, or one hundred dollars per share...

I want to think about this seriously....
....
if CUE could get to 25cents this year...
and I could get into LNC around one dollar, and this tracks across 20 years in the direction I think it could, then I could be a millionaire 10 times over...

any other views on management...
its probably about time I did some serious research....

My statement in this post requires some serious foresight, that might not even come true...
there is a path to one dollar...
wheather Linc are up to it or not will be found out in time...
certainly it has the making of something we have not seen on this side of the World,
hence the run from 50c to 5 bucks...
now one dollar twenty something...
lets hope the coal sale deal fails and this falls big eah... in the scheme of things this sale is really only kiddy change right?
important cash though....
50c entry wouldnt that be a dream
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

another idea...
The other really really great thing we have going for us here is....this has so much leverage,
We have plenty of time to watch LNC, and see it run.... we can watch it for a few baggers... ie get in around 3 bucks knowing that it can track much much higher, miss the boat, but not miss big returns....
and buy in derisked, in a time of more certain outcome on assets...

if the Coal sale comes through id tip to buy this at any price with the sale price factored into the SP...
:cool:
.^sc

[The Big Ease]

thanks for that shrewdy/shasta.

the only "risk" in the interim is a disappointing theresa sale value.
those funds alone should underpin the share price.

So they have plenty of coal
They will get 500-1billion from theresa coal sale
Additional 2 coal tenements to be sold

so funding looks like being ok for a while.

I cant see what the panic is all about. 1.5bill was an amazing price. If they merely got fair value, these guys are still sitting pretty.

[OutToLunch]

Sh!t -- up 54c as I type. Who bought at sub $1 last week, anyone here?

(Holding from 1.39 a few weeks ago on the way down)

[Crypto Crude]

oh jeeze....
I hope it wasnt something I said....
what a day for Linc,
could it be that deal coming through....
;)
.^sc

[shasta]

No i don't think Linc will be trading at those share prices unless they do a share consolidation, it may well double or better during 2009 though :confused:

At $1.22 LNC has a market cap of ~$A500m, i'd wanna see some "firmer" figures about forecast revenues, & margins, but the costs of production seem low, here's a good reminder of them...

BTW $50 per share = `~$A20b Market Cap :eek:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=198958

As the UCG technology becomes more widespread (& needs oil at much higher prices to become a viable mainstream alternative), others will enter the UCG market, Linc has the 1st mover advantage however.

New Hope (NHC) are already talking about a CTL/UCG viability study (& they have over $A1b cash to make it happen if they want to).

As for Management seem alright, i'd wait & see if they can bring LNC into production on time & within budget before passing judgement, but so far so good.

LNC are aiming for a long life 20,000 bbls per day project, & have an offtake agreement for 70% (14,000 bbls) already with BP, & you would have seen/heard the AIR NZ bio fuel trials recently that were successful, so i'm sure the remaining 30% of production will be snapped up by an airline at some stage?

With the drop off in SP i'm more interested in LNC, as i believe they will get a good price for the coal sale.

It's a very important milestone as they will require the funds to get Chinchilla up & running to capacity...

Watch the volume, ahead of any announcements ;)

Volume up & so is the SP, what a surprise :rolleyes:

The market is pricing back the coal sale, ann out tonight, or tomorrow to justify the 34% increase today...

[shasta]

Volume up & so is the SP, what a surprise :rolleyes:

The market is pricing back the coal sale, ann out tonight, or tomorrow to justify the 34% increase today...

LNC - UCG Update :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=208534

Things tickly along just nicely...

[The Big Ease]

the more i look into this stock, the more i like it.

just going off raw numbers:


1 Production Plant
BPD 20,000
Profit Per Barrel 40
Daily Profit 800,000
Weekly Profit 5,600,000
Annual Profit 291,200,000
PE 8
Market Cap 2.329Billion


which equates to about 4 dollars per share.

[bear]

the more i look into this stock, the more i like it.

just going off raw numbers:


1 Production Plant
BPD 20,000
Profit Per Barrel 40
Daily Profit 800,000
Weekly Profit 5,600,000
Annual Profit 291,200,000
PE 8
Market Cap 2.329Billion


which equates to about 4 dollars per share.

Don't forget TBE they were looking at 10 or more plants in Aust, USA and Asia

Bear

[shasta]

the more i look into this stock, the more i like it.

just going off raw numbers:


1 Production Plant
BPD 20,000
Profit Per Barrel 40
Daily Profit 800,000
Weekly Profit 5,600,000
Annual Profit 291,200,000
PE 8
Market Cap 2.329Billion


which equates to about 4 dollars per share.

Profit per barrel only reflects "direct" costs, at what price level does it give a $40 per barrel profit?

Linc needs oil over $US70/bbl to really become a viable option

[The Big Ease]

Profit per barrel only reflects "direct" costs, at what price level does it give a $40 per barrel profit?

Linc needs oil over $US70/bbl to really become a viable option
going by one of the brr presentations, diesel gets 20 bucks above the price of oil. so if it floats around 50 bucks, that gives you 70 dollars for the 20K diesel.

its just rough number shasta.
give or take 20 bucks and they still make a lot of money.

[shasta]

going by one of the brr presentations, diesel gets 20 bucks above the price of oil. so if it floats around 50 bucks, that gives you 70 dollars for the 20K diesel.

its just rough number shasta.
give or take 20 bucks and they still make a lot of money.

Thats cool, it just sounds so damn good, almost too good...

Linc has a big resource, soon to be well funded, & has first mover advantage in this sector.

All signs of a winner in my book ;)

[The Big Ease]

Thats cool, it just sounds so damn good, almost too good...

Linc has a big resource, soon to be well funded, & has first mover advantage in this sector.

All signs of a winner in my book ;)

i hear ya. youve gotta check yourself when everything seems so good.
this could be a climber like FMG was before the descent.

but looking at those numbers i pluggedin, it coudl also oscillate between 2-5 dollars too, since the commercials on their first plant wont stack up beyond that kind of valuation. it would have to push up on potential rather than commercials.

[upside_umop]

Hey Phaedrus,

Is it possible if you have time that you can post a chart for LNC with your TA thoughts?

Thanks again.

[Phaedrus]

Short-term traders of LNC would probably have taken their profits and sold out a couple of days ago (on the 17th) on the basis of the 2 bearish divergences shown here in magenta. (The price was making higher highs, while the OBV and RSI were making lower highs.

Those more interested in the "medium" term would still be in because :-
(1) LNC is still in an uptrend
(2) The ema25 has not been crossed
(3) The Trailing Stop has not been hit.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/LNC319.gif

[The Big Ease]

nice announcement today.
"sounds" like the deal is in the bag with the MD saying its only a matter of 3 or so meetings away from signing contracts and should be sealed in 4 weeks at the latest.

very encouraging.

[shasta]

nice announcement today.
"sounds" like the deal is in the bag with the MD saying its only a matter of 3 or so meetings away from signing contracts and should be sealed in 4 weeks at the latest.

very encouraging.

TBE

Call me a nervous nelly, but didn't ADY operate like this, with all the nearly/just-about anns? :confused:

[The Big Ease]

TBE

Call me a nervous nelly, but didn't ADY operate like this, with all the nearly/just-about anns? :confused:

they did nelly, but not quite in the same boat ;)
well, i hope not. i dont get the same vibe from these guys.
of course you never know as an outsider.

[The Big Ease]

Don't forget TBE they were looking at 10 or more plants in Aust, USA and Asia

Bear
theyd need approx 10billion for that at 900mill per plant.
lots of cash and would need a BIG partner. Its possible.

[OutToLunch]

Wow did you see that. Low 190s to 209 in a flash. Someone's keen. News leaking out perhaps.... oh nah, that never happens, does it. :rolleyes:

Edit: replace 'Wow' with 'PHWOOOOAAAAR, BABY!'

[kiwiwim]

Watching the share price and volume during the last week makes you think that we must have good news.
Announcement today about exploration in SA is a disappointment. I expected it to be the sales confirmation.
But we still do not know what is holding up the coal tenement sale. Yes it is subject to local govt. approvals. What are these and is there a chance that there could be a NO answer?
Also now that all the Chinese end hurdles have been settled, what is the contract value?
Furthermore what has happened to the CTL testing process since the last announcement in October last?
The company quoted the following:
"Over coming months Linc Energy will continue to operate its GTL demonstration facility and use the experience gained to assist with finalising the engineering scope for the Company’s proposed 20,000 barrels per day commercial facility that is planned for commencement of construction in the next 12 months." (P.S. how do you change font?)
Keep on watching great potential, but could take many years.
.

[shasta]

Watching the share price and volume during the last week makes you think that we must have good news.
Announcement today about exploration in SA is a disappointment. I expected it to be the sales confirmation.
But we still do not know what is holding up the coal tenement sale. Yes it is subject to local govt. approvals. What are these and is there a chance that there could be a NO answer?
Also now that all the Chinese end hurdles have been settled, what is the contract value?
Furthermore what has happened to the CTL testing process since the last announcement in October last?
The company quoted the following:
"Over coming months Linc Energy will continue to operate its GTL demonstration facility and use the experience gained to assist with finalising the engineering scope for the Company’s proposed 20,000 barrels per day commercial facility that is planned for commencement of construction in the next 12 months." (P.S. how do you change font?)
Keep on watching great potential, but could take many years.
.

LNC - Update

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=209611

Seems the deal has been renogitiated to include extra tenements...

What the price received will be, is as yet unknown!

[Coruba]

Hi

Noticed this is in a trading halt re further updates made in response to comments in today's Australian Business Review.

Can anyone shed any light to what these were as it appears after a "boys" look on the website they are pointing readers to the printed copy of the article?

Cheers

Coruba

[OutToLunch]

http://www.australia.to/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=11393:business-monday&catid=74:business-news&Itemid=198 (https://webmail.landcareresearch.co.nz/owa/redir.aspx?C=a5ce437a74254b88898351fd5f363037&URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.australia.to%2findex.php%3fop tion%3dcom_content%26view%3darticle%26id%3d11393%3 abusiness-monday%26catid%3d74%3abusiness-news%26Itemid%3d198)

….Coal-to-liquids group Linc Energy is in talks with investments banks regarding the sale of two assets, the Galilee Basin and Emerald coal tenements in Queensland. Linc is considering putting up the assets for a formal sale process after exclusive talks with China’s Yanzhou Coal on the sale of the Emerald tenements failed to reach a conclusion after more than two months. Investment banks UBS and Goldman Sachs JBWere are believed to be possible advisers to the sale, which could generate more than $2 billion for Linc.
---


I got some more at 1.68 on Friday. Possibly just in time but there's still a lot of uncertainty yet. Still, the assets are there and aren't going anywhere in a hurry, including the former SAPEX tenements.



It sounds to me that maybe Bond has had enough of the Chinese dragging their heels on the deal and has other buyers interested?

[Coruba]

Thanks OTL......appreciated

[shasta]

Thanks OTL......appreciated

LNC - Quarterly Report

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=212194

Great read on all there activites & they have UBS looking inot the sale of 3 non core coal permits.

Good to see they aren't mucking around after the chinese deal went sour

[bear]

LNC - Quarterly Report

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=212194

Great read on all there activites & they have UBS looking inot the sale of 3 non core coal permits.

Good to see they aren't mucking around after the chinese deal went sour

while i agree with your sentiment there Shasta ....what concerns me is their cash position - insufficient to last the next quarter without drawing more credit. They have spare credit capacity which i assume will be used. Not keen on a capital raising at these prices.

I trust UBS will be quicker than negs to date. We need a bit of cash fast.

Bear

Discl. hold

[OutToLunch]

If there's a competitive tender with a fixed deadline it should work out ok, especially given the hints of a turnaround in the global economy (whether shortlived or not) which should stimulate a bit more interest from buyers at the present time. I think things will be fine, albeit running a bit close to the wire for our liking.

[OutToLunch]

Mmmm, that wire is closer than we thought. Capital raising announced. Obviously there is no prospect of an asset sale in the short term otherwise you'd think they wouldn't be doing this. Hopefully it's only a relatively small raising to bridge the gap....

[upside_umop]

After watching this break its trendline earlier this month, I held back waiting for further volume. The volume came, but so did the continuation of uptrends of my other holdings! Today I sold down CSV at $1.43 for an entry into LNC at $1.97. CSV is by no means a sell, just a short term sell and is likely to stagnate and consolidate like it has done on its road upto its price today.

Heres a chart for few to view.

Short term trend broken @ $1.42
Medium term trend broken @ $1.50
Resistance broken @ $1.75
Resistance @ $1.90 looks to be broken well and truely today if the morning is anything to go by.

OBV has had its trendline break also, confirming above signals.

Interesting to note is the 'linear trendline regression' which is calculated from December 06 till yesterday. Notice how the price flirts with this trendline on multiple occasions. A reversion to the mean perhaps?

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2557/3946131480_9041b4053d_b.jpg

[drillfix]

Hi Upside,

Is that a charting package for Mac as seen in your pic?


http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2557/...41b4053d_b.jpg

If so, what exactly is it called and is it realtime or EOD from where?

Any link or info would be appreciated.

[upside_umop]

Hi Drillfix,

Yeah, its charting software for Mac OSX. Its called ProTA and a trial is available for download via www.beesoft.net

The trial is relatively rubbish though, as it only allows you to have a go with old data of US stocks.

I have upgraded from the standard to the 'gold' version which allow you to customize indicators and create trading systems. Its quite easy to use too (as anything on a Mac should be!).

It currently only supports EOD data, and you have manually import it from the likes of www.cooltrader.com.au (what I use). It only takes a minute as you drag the csv file onto the icon in your dock and with the right default settings it updates your prices in seconds.

The alternative is using stockXloader, which is a program that sources its data from yahoo, and is therefore free to use after a one time purchase price of around 60 euro. The only trouble I had with this is that ASX quotes are only 2 d.p. on historical prices and therefore you get big problems with penny dreadfuls returns.

[marknz88]

Hi Upside,

Is that a charting package for Mac as seen in your pic?



If so, what exactly is it called and is it realtime or EOD from where?

Any link or info would be appreciated.

I purchased ProTa for my laptop and got a refund a week later (I was lucky on this fron as they dont usually do refunds). Didnt like that fact of having to import the data like so and plus it had no real time capability.

Im now running Amibroker + ninja trader via a virtual machine and it works reasonably well (just puts quite a strain on my air since its not as beefy as the macbook pro's. If you have a desktop there should be no heat issues.)

So you could look into using virtual machine software such as VMWare and run any windows based software you like drillfix :)

[drillfix]

Thanks both Mark and Upside.

I myself dont use a Mac however a nice chick I know that uses a Mac had asked me about Mac charting etc etc, so I will pass on the info accordingly.


Cheers again~!

[upside_umop]

No problem. What Mark says is true, it does seem a little bit of a hassle to have to download the file each night. But in saying that, I have come used to it and it means you at least review your stocks for the day. If you miss a few days, the data providers (cooltrader does anyway) usually put the files into monthly folders. You can also audit your data to see if any prices are missing by the click of the mouse.

If the 'nice chicky' is going to be trading overseas, then Dial Data would automatically do your prices as it is built into ProTA.

I believe its only a matter of time before they incorporate live data and good feeds.

Another option is www.bigcharts.com which is online charting, but has some pretty decent resources. Does live charting too (albeit 20 minutes delayed). But its completely free!

[drillfix]

Nah, she doesnt trade overseas so thats not a prob.

I too like BigCharts, but wish there was some account type preferences or favourites available but havent seen any there.

Cheers again.

[whirly]

Are you folks still following LNC.

I'm tempted by the prospect of these coal tenement sales. What are the chances of one or more going ahead this year?

[drillfix]

Sorry to change the topic here folks.



Thanks both Mark and Upside.

however a nice chick I know that uses a Mac had asked me about Mac charting etc etc, so I will pass on the info accordingly.



As it turns out, that so called Chic was not so NICE after all.

See thats what guys get when they do things for Chic's who seem to be nice.

We get SQUASHED.

[drillfix]

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/ One particular scan/screener option has been on my wish list for some time and has been put in place today, so well done to the IC team. Its great to see the progress in the area of screening with automatic data inclusive.

AA

Hi AA, glad to hear that the IC team are continuing with updating their developments.

Although I get confused, is the updates hourly or every 20 mins?

[OutToLunch]

LNC are on the move today, currently up 14c to 170.5. Is it leaked news of a coal sale, or just traders trying to suck punters into thinking just that? End of day trading will probably answer that...

[shasta]

LNC are on the move today, currently up 14c to 170.5. Is it leaked news of a coal sale, or just traders trying to suck punters into thinking just that? End of day trading will probably answer that...

Anyone still watching LNC?

Share price @ $1.06 (it hit $5+ back in Oct 08!) one to watch when the chart improves, maybe this ann will give it a boost?

World first for Linc Energy with Hydrogen Fuel Cell Trial (@ its Chinchilla facility in Qld)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=221648

As a side note, Eden Energy (ASX:EDE) have a joint venture with the University of Queensland (page 4)

http://www.edenenergy.com.au/pdfs/20100323%20Cleantech%20Conference%20Presentation.p df

Given EDE's weak share price & low market cap, Linc may well be interested in acquiring there technology?

Food for thought down the line...

[The Big Ease]

it has taken them nearly two years to sell an asset they had already announced as sold.
That has been very disappointing. Big potential if they can do what they aim to.

[upside_umop]

Anyone still watching LNC?

Share price @ $1.06 (it hit $5+ back in Oct 08!) one to watch when the chart improves, maybe this ann will give it a boost?

World first for Linc Energy with Hydrogen Fuel Cell Trial (@ its Chinchilla facility in Qld)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=221648

As a side note, Eden Energy (ASX:EDE) have a joint venture with the University of Queensland (page 4)

http://www.edenenergy.com.au/pdfs/20100323%20Cleantech%20Conference%20Presentation.p df

Given EDE's weak share price & low market cap, Linc may well be interested in acquiring there technology?

Food for thought down the line...

Hi Shasta,

I have been watching but sold out my small position a month or two back as the carnage started. Took a loss!

I've realized that UCG does have pretty big potential, but seems to be a little hesitancy about it. The QLD govts decision to allow CSG over UCG didn't help!

THe other thing is controlling the burn. I don't anyone has successfully controlled the burn-rate well enough, and thus they get problems.

I'm thinking Cougar Energy is on the right track anyway. They seem to be doing the simple, achievable things first and then the liquids later. Ie they're planning to build 400MW power plant at Kingaroy and replicate this in similar scale, at multiple locations (Victoria, Western Australia, Mongolia and China (this one looks a goodie as its for a gas offtake only - no big CAPEX)). Once they master that, then they've said they will go to higher value products. I dont hold any (did, but think I will wait till i see how they for raising cash).

I agree with TBE...LNC just seem to be holding out for this coal sale, and the uncertainty surrounding the coal sale combined with the Rudd tax demolished the stock. Will we see the SPRT? I'm not sure, but I think most buyers have been put off from the sovereign risk, even if it does (even if only put off for a while....could have devastating effects for LNC).

I havent looked at the last quarterly, but they're burning cash so damn fast its not funny.

[Shaneoz]

Well that will be quadruple bottom as of today. Pretty wide time.... started march 09.
Days between high and march low x3 from low is tommorrow. March 09 low to tommorrow in days= resistance level of 97c x 5. Tommorrow may bring a change possibly.

[Crypto Crude]

well,
I whittled it down to 3 stocks... im either going to purchase BUY, BAS or LNC...
IM actually leaning towards LNC, for a trade on coal sale...
investment term 3-6 months... expected return 100% min...

1) LNC has the biggest resource of energy in the World...probably...
2) No doubt in my mind the Coal sale is absolutely coming through...
This sale will unlesh value and other values constrained by the non sale...
3) LNC has the biggest technical team of UCG in the world
4) all the UCG companies in the World learnt UCG processes from Yerostigaz (the only commercial UCG operation in the World)... The LNC acquisiton of this company protects significant Intellectual property, and adds 200 experienced employees...
5) LNC are world leaders of UCG and put cougar and carbon to sleep...
LNC coals are more suited to UCG, are at the right depths, and higher ticknesses...
and LNC has the biggest resource/reserve of coals across many countries...

Its not if, its when UCG gets off the ground this will be a $20 stocks...
I once said the stock has $100 potential...theory based it does...

Boy, This company is complicated to understand... Its not the sort of stock you can sit down over the weekend and nut out...
Maybe this is one reason why analysts have so overlooked the stock...
The future value is incredible...
the delay of coal sale has really pissed the market off...
These quality coal reserves are of significant value that could have easily been sold but the company is still negotiating reasonable fair pricing... the only reason why the company has not Joint ventured with companies/interested countries with UCG/GTL is because LNC do not want to dilute shareholders future values...

The 90 minute boardroom radio interview with Justyn Peters is very compelling...
highly recommended listening...

http://www.brr.com.au/asx/LNC/linc-energy-ltd/

any thoughts...

:cool:
.^sc

[shasta]

well,
I whittled it down to 3 stocks... im either going to purchase BUY, BAS or LNC...
IM actually leaning towards LNC, for a trade on coal sale...
investment term 3-6 months... expected return 100% min...

1) LNC has the biggest resource of energy in the World...probably...
2) No doubt in my mind the Coal sale is absolutely coming through...
This sale will unlesh value and other values constrained by the non sale...
3) LNC has the biggest technical team of UCG in the world
4) all the UCG companies in the World learnt UCG processes from Yerostigaz (the only commercial UCG operation in the World)... The LNC acquisiton of this company protects significant Intellectual property, and adds 200 experienced employees...
5) LNC are world leaders of UCG and put cougar and carbon to sleep...
LNC coals are more suited to UCG, are at the right depths, and higher ticknesses...
and LNC has the biggest resource/reserve of coals across many countries...

Its not if, its when UCG gets off the ground this will be a $20 stocks...
I once said the stock has $100 potential...theory based it does...

Boy, This company is complicated to understand... Its not the sort of stock you can sit down over the weekend and nut out...
Maybe this is one reason why analysts have so overlooked the stock...
The future value is incredible...
the delay of coal sale has really pissed the market off...
These quality coal reserves are of significant value that could have easily been sold but the company is still negotiating reasonable fair pricing... the only reason why the company has not Joint ventured with companies/interested countries with UCG/GTL is because LNC do not want to dilute shareholders future values...

The 90 minute boardroom radio interview with Justyn Peters is very compelling...
highly recommended listening...

http://www.brr.com.au/asx/LNC/linc-energy-ltd/

any thoughts...

:cool:
.^sc

On a fundamental basis, LNC looks a better purchase than BAS or BUY, i had a quick look at those oilers recent presentations, & very small revenue, & have all the hype of there "next drill will be the big one", that most O&G companies come with.

Unless you know something that i've missed, LNC really just needs to sort out the coal transaction for the share price take off

Keep an eye on the volume, any wiff of the deal back on & the stampede will start, & it will happen quickly

[Crypto Crude]

oh yes shasta,
BUY is an exceptional besbs play leading into sydney basin well...
BAS is another Besbs play more infant and requires more time but there will be a great trade in it...
:cool:
.^sc

[upside_umop]

well,
I whittled it down to 3 stocks... im either going to purchase BUY, BAS or LNC...
IM actually leaning towards LNC, for a trade on coal sale...
investment term 3-6 months... expected return 100% min...

1) LNC has the biggest resource of energy in the World...probably...
2) No doubt in my mind the Coal sale is absolutely coming through...
This sale will unlesh value and other values constrained by the non sale...
3) LNC has the biggest technical team of UCG in the world
4) all the UCG companies in the World learnt UCG processes from Yerostigaz (the only commercial UCG operation in the World)... The LNC acquisiton of this company protects significant Intellectual property, and adds 200 experienced employees...
5) LNC are world leaders of UCG and put cougar and carbon to sleep...
LNC coals are more suited to UCG, are at the right depths, and higher ticknesses...
and LNC has the biggest resource/reserve of coals across many countries...

Its not if, its when UCG gets off the ground this will be a $20 stocks...
I once said the stock has $100 potential...theory based it does...

Boy, This company is complicated to understand... Its not the sort of stock you can sit down over the weekend and nut out...
Maybe this is one reason why analysts have so overlooked the stock...
The future value is incredible...
the delay of coal sale has really pissed the market off...
These quality coal reserves are of significant value that could have easily been sold but the company is still negotiating reasonable fair pricing... the only reason why the company has not Joint ventured with companies/interested countries with UCG/GTL is because LNC do not want to dilute shareholders future values...

The 90 minute boardroom radio interview with Justyn Peters is very compelling...
highly recommended listening...

http://www.brr.com.au/asx/LNC/linc-energy-ltd/

any thoughts...

:cool:
.^sc

Good luck with that one then.

1) The coal sale has been pending for almost 2 years now. The rudd tax hits directly at the heart of any sale.
2) I agree. Still problems based in the company though. Ie, they can't control the burn rate. Also, the liquids side of the business is very complicated...around $30 opex (no capex included). Risky.
3) True. Also the highest burn rate of cash. It was one of your comments at a sharetrader meeting that put me right off them - they were offering graduates credit cards with virtually no bounds (your sister wasn't it?). This is shown in their net operating cashflows of last quarter for ~$16 million. Ouch.
4) There is little intellectual property to protect IMO. Ergo Energy and Cougar Energy have all the technology + more than in Yerostigaz (Blinderman and Walker were behind the ignition of Chinchilla).
5) Hard to justify. LNC, CNX and CXY all claim to be the world leaders. LNC are going about it the wrong way...KIS mate. Keep it simple. Then get complicated.

Its make or break for LNC. They need to sell that asset otherwise they're gonna's (or a pretty simple company with very few employees by then!)

The coal asset could come through, its just been a long time in the making with Bond getting too greedy. He's not going to want to reduce his price too much, is he?

I'd rather stick with Cougar for a more conventional fundamental play. But again, even they are too risky for me atm.

[shasta]

LNC - Yet "Another" - Coal Sale Update!

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=222034

With LNC needing the funds, you'd have thought they would have renegotiated the sale price to conclude the deal.

Not that i want to compare LNC to URA, but the constant "reassurance" that things are still being negotiated, sounds awfully familiar

That "mistake in judgement" with URA cost me $A17k

LNC currently up 26c to $1.31 (+24.8%)

Another ann just thru - "LNC completes acquisition of Alaskan Oil and Gas Leases"

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LNC&E=ASX&N=222059

[OutToLunch]

Touching 1.50 now. Rumour mill in overdrive regarding Adani and LNC's coal leases. High volume suggests the deal is close to being done?

[upside_umop]

Will be interesting to see - will it crash and burn like the other previous rumours? If not, SC you may be spot on timing. 2 years in the waiting and to strike it lucky would be quite good.

$1 billion would be enough for get 20,000 bbls up and running....apparently.

[shasta]

Will be interesting to see - will it crash and burn like the other previous rumours? If not, SC you may be spot on timing. 2 years in the waiting and to strike it lucky would be quite good.

$1 billion would be enough for get 20,000 bbls up and running....apparently.

LNC up 29.5c (+18.5%) to $1.89 - on more speculation the coal sale is nearly conclusion...

Market seems convinved this time it's going to happen!

Anything over $A1b will really excite the market

[The Big Ease]

lots of reports from Indian sources seem to suggest the value is around 1bill for 1 tenement.
I'm pretty happy to have taken a punt that this time it was the real deal.

Third party speculation tipped me in. Apparently written offers for each of the 3 tenements.

[bermuda]

lots of reports from Indian sources seem to suggest the value is around 1bill for 1 tenement.
I'm pretty happy to have taken a punt that this time it was the real deal.

Third party speculation tipped me in. Apparently written offers for each of the 3 tenements.

TBE,
Always was suspicious about Bond. Thought he might be another. He might deliver this time.

[The Big Ease]

i'm by no means a long term holder.

just looking to ride the transactions.

[upside_umop]

This may be it!

Imagine if he can finally get it away...Bond has been a good talker, eh bermuda. Finally, he may be pulling through.

[OutToLunch]

Sounds good to me. Less up front than expected but a nice income stream. All approvals (FIRB etc) have been given. Further tenement sales to come will put more $ in the bank....


By Ross Kelly
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Linc Energy Ltd. (LNC.AU) said Tuesday that it has sold its Galilee thermal coal property in Queensland state to India's Adani Enterprises Ltd. (512599.BY) for A$500 million plus royalties, in the biggest corporate investment by India in Australia, as the fast-growing nation tries to plug gaps in its energy supply.

Attempts to sell another of Linc's non-core properties, Emerald, can intensify now that Galilee is sold, and Linc Chief Executive Peter Bond said he's confident a sale of Emerald is "not too far off." Emerald contains a mix of coking coal and thermal coal.

The royalty rate is A$2 a metric ton, indexed to Australia's consumer price index, for the first 20 years of production from any mine built on the property, creating "a total cash stream of approximately A$3.0 billion," Linc said.

The breakthrough ends years of frustration for Brisbane-based Linc, after two previous attempts to sell coal properties in Queensland to Chinese entities, including Galilee, collapsed at an advanced stage of negotiations.

The sale gives Linc funding to develop its budding coal gasification and gas-to-liquid fuels businesses.

As one of the world's fastest growing economies, India currently has to import coal because it doesn't produce enough to meet increasing demand.

According to government data, India is estimated to face a coal shortage of 52 million tons this fiscal year and power utilities have been asked to import 35 million tons of the fuel.

Linc said the Galilee property could support a development producing 60 million tons of coal each year.

India aims to nearly quadruple the annual addition to power generation capacity over the next few years, to 13,000 megawatts each year from around 3,500 MW now, to power rural households and prevent blackouts.

According to data provided to Dow Jones Newswires by Dealogic, the next biggest Indian corporate investment in Australia is Tata Steel Ltd.'s A$96 million purchase of a stake in Mozambique-focused Australian coal miner Riversdale Mining Ltd.

The biggest single Indian investment in Australia, however, remains PetroNet LNG Ltd.'s agreement last year to buy liquefied natural gas from Exxon Mobil Corp. for 20 years from the massive Chevron Corp.-operated Gorgon project in Western Australia.

Adani said it has obtained approval for the Linc deal from Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board, and has also been awarded "preferred proponent status" by relevant authorities to develop a 30 million-60 million-ton-a-year coal terminal near the existing Hay Point and Dalrymple Bay terminals at the port town of Mackay.

Speculation that Linc would seal a deal with Adani firmed in recent weeks after Bond confirmed Linc was talking to the Indian group, which raised US$850 million through a late July share issue.

The deal is the latest in a flurry of corporate activity in Australia's coal sector, following last year's Chinese takeover of Felix Resources Ltd. and this month's offer by Thai miner Banpu PCL (BANPU.TH) for Centennial Coal Co. (CEY.AU).

-By Ross Kelly, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-2-8272-4692; Ross.Kelly@dowjones.com

[airedale]

Talking about selling coal to India........have a look at REY, Rey Resources. They are digging it up in WA and selling to India. Shipped out from the north west of WA. Much shorter distance than Queensland. One for the watchlist.

[trackers]

Coal sale is now a done deal - $500mil now in the bank, worth up to $3billion over time with royalties.

Share price down 3%

[soulman]

Coal sale is now a done deal - $500mil now in the bank, worth up to $3billion over time with royalties.

Share price down 3%

Make that 6%. I am not sure about this one. First trade last week was an instant hit in 24 hours. Second one is under water at the minute. This coy looks good FA ad TA ATM. I really thought LNC might crashed through the $2 barrier this week. Looks like I might be wrong.

[OutToLunch]

LNC creeping up, now 2.10. Must say I did like their Hong Kong presentation on Oct 21. Big potential from a diverse range of energy projects (GTL, UCG, conventional gas, industrial fuel cells (via AFC), CCS and enhanced oil recovery... coal to liquids if they can pull that one off... part of my 'insurance' against the inevitable energy crunch to come.

[OutToLunch]

...LNC now 2.50 and still being aggressively bought up. Either the market is simply waking up to their potential (aiming to have $1b cash in the bank by early next year, etc etc), or has some news leaked out? No idea -- anyone else watching here?

[OutToLunch]

LNC are flying again today. Apart from the usual rumours though I can't see anything to substantiate this latest rise, apart from an increasing awareness of what LNC are all about. Anyone else watching here apart from me, myself and I?

[airedale]

Talking about selling coal to India........have a look at REY, Rey Resources. They are digging it up in WA and selling to India. Shipped out from the north west of WA. Much shorter distance than Queensland. One for the watchlist.

REY up 11% to 30 cents today on decent volume. I should have started a separate REY thread.

[bear]

LNC are flying again today. Apart from the usual rumours though I can't see anything to substantiate this latest rise, apart from an increasing awareness of what LNC are all about. Anyone else watching here apart from me, myself and I?

watching, holding, and bullish - can't wait for an exciting next 12 months - more coal sales, oil and gas play, Oil increases lead to more margin and dollars

bear

[OutToLunch]

Looks like Linc is about to have another go at the $3 mark. I find it hard to believe someone sold to me at 2.38 just a couple of weeks ago on the back of the CXY/DERM debacle. I really didn't think Linc would have been sold that low, especially since DERM specifically endorsed Linc's own operations, but it plumbed the 220s briefly so I just had to grab a few more before the panic selling dried up.

The news out of Alaska with their first gas well is excellent, pending news on flow rates. I'm hesitant to get too excited about a share after my experience with ADY, but Linc really does look the goods at this point in time. The potential for enhanced oil recovery, a relatively new thing for Linc, could be a serious revenue generator within the next few years.

[drillfix]

Anybody in for a bounce trade today?

Missed the open today which is fine, though took a small position at $1.47 with a tight stop.

OS futures look good, indicators for entry on the 5, 15 minute charts look good as too is the 60 min chart shaping up.

The daily is showing oversold Williams $R and some slight divergence on the OBV and RSI which also added to my entry on the daily for a potential swing trade. (if not then scalp only)

ps: BOT buying movement is upward~!

[drillfix]

Well, souly, as you mentioned on the cvr thread that you were now in, I thought you would appreciate an intraday chart.


LNC Intraday >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/l3vjlpsubci0t50xqlcy_Intraday.png



I got a target of $1.56 which if it doesn't break, then I will dump (should it get there).

The 15 min and 60 min charts on the left currently are respecting the 13ema so the 5 minute is looking choppy.

I entered based on the 15 min so I will trade to that. Should a break past 1.56 I may add to the position but better to cross that bridge should or if it comes to that.

In the meantime, will remain governed by the 15 min and the 13ema for short term actions.

[drillfix]

Looks like there are BOTs trading both ways now.

Some funny time and sales showing from commsec also as shown here:

Zero Trades going through and counted as trades >> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/uoysl9hb9fj9x0fxi1_Sales.png


Bit of a battle at 1.50 at present, so finger on the pulse for any breakage as my target of 1.56 may have been a bit high for today.


Now out, after some series sellers triggered the break for my exit.

Ah well a little something is better than alot of nothing.

[soulman]

Just did a quick scan on LNC. They have pissed away nearly $300 mil in cash in one year. WTF? Buying crappy assets...maybe.

I was trading LNC back then when they announce the Indian deal and the 10 cents FF div. All positives but when you burn that much cash.....WTF? There in an on-market buyback and most are bought at $2 and above.

Back to the situation, yes bounce trade. Let me keep this in perspectives before I say WTF again. Nice exit Drill. Seems there is some serious selling going on.

[OutToLunch]

Well so much for that. Linc seem to have developed a serious credibility problem in the market. I really liked their story and thought it had great potential (it probably still does) but their recent performance has been very disappointing -- and there are a lot of question marks over several things such as the latest touted coal sale (what's happening with it??), the reasoning for the share buyback (which has recently stopped despite a lower share price -- why??) and corporate governance (I gather that most of the board members have no previous board experience -- that's a bit of a worry as it reinforces the notion that Linc is a one man band led by PB). With these unanswered questions and the developing storm in Europe/China/US I gradually sold out at 2.84, 2.24, 2.08, 2.01 and finally 1.975 on the way down and ploughed the lot into the mortgage.

In the 1.40s however I believe that Linc may be starting to look attractive again, but in the present market we could see lower levels in the short-medium term.... certainly one to watch at these levels...

[drillfix]

Good move OutToLunch.

Yeah. the double top back at 2.23c then seemed to put the stock into a death spiral, but as you say at these levels may provide good value.

Technically very cautious of these stocks as they have BOT's and all sorts of folks entering and exiting for different reasons that there is no direction except down and more down and when there is a reason for it to go up, it then still may just go up slightly because the stock inherits a reputation or whatever.

Sitting on the sideline today with LNC soulman, but thought that a gap up 5c today would have continued.

The daily indicators are still good although the 5, 15 and 60 min charts are showing Chop, which means I will either buy in above 1.525 or at the previous low around 1.42'ish for any bounce, other than that, I will stay out of the Chop.

Divergence continues on the daily RSI and OBV, MACD histogrram with an upward move and Williams % R about to trigger a buy potentially so will need to keep an eye on this one for re-entry.

[drillfix]

LNC Secures 1.2 Billion Tonne Coal Concession in Poland

News out, now lets see what this does for price action, finger on the pulse there soulman~!


Add / Edit

Nope, still looks like chop with very little spread.

[soulman]

Talk about some serious selling. Someone would not let this stock bounce Drill.

Peter Bond must have got the "greed become stupid syndrome" when LNC got all those cash from Adani. SP halves in 5 months.

OTL, your post is very excellent. I wonder maybe because of PB massive stock options at low prices and bonuses, he might have made his massive $$$ and now just pissed the coy away as he has cashed out. Big conflict of interest as even if the coy failed now, he has money in the bank. What a world.

[drillfix]

Sounds like the typical life or position of most of these CEO's in ASX Listed companies soulman.

What somebody needs to do is find the loops in corporate law they have breached and then Jail the Mongrels I reckon.


Seems that price is range bound again and it appears to want to retest the 52 week low at some stage.

[Financially dependant]

Seems that price is range bound again and it appears to want to retest the 52 week low at some stage.

This could set up nicely if the volume (supply) starts to dry up but the price remains range bound for a few days, this could be a good entry point.

[drillfix]

I reckon it could FD.

Once many see the double bottom and the move upward, it can become a thrust and the sellers then retreat.

I would consider an entry after the bounce and then add to the position as it moves up.

[Financially dependant]

I reckon it could FD.

Once many see the double bottom and the move upward, it can become a thrust and the sellers then retreat.

I would consider an entry after the bounce and then add to the position as it moves up.

Spot on Drilly...I have done the same thing with LYC but I have just been a little impatient but it looks like it might work out..

[soulman]

Nice high opening from LNC allow me to exit at a profit instead of a loss. The luck factor in the stockmarket.

[drillfix]

Well done souly,

Was going to ask if you were still holding these today, but nice gap up today so the luck is with you :)

[soulman]

Certainly the luck Drill. I was pulling the plug on LNC yesterday at $1.47 late in the trading hours for a loss. It wasn't filled and I left it there overnight, not aware of the massive rise in EU and US stockmarket.

This morning LNC open up 11.5 cents straight away. What a world. I see LNC back in the $1.40's soon though. You have any other fruits in this rise Drill? It seems only LNC for me.

[drillfix]

Not holding any LNC, although was waiting for a bounce near 1.42 approx and any bounce would be a buy for me though I am concerned about the decline that gives us previous warning yet finger on the pulse all the way.

Still holding CVR and PXG for longer holds in my day account and it feels funny not trading it. I should have but didn't as I find that with some of these type of stocks, when the fundamentals pop out, then if all is good the sp will re rate totally and then perhaps I may try to go free carried.

Missed the boat today due to my IB platform and zero or horrific communication from IB which saddens me on a day like today whereby many opportunities have been missed.

May take a couple of trades a few others yet not sure which one, at which moment, plus I dont know how long this happy happy market feel will last for, IMO it is a sign or signal that the next eventual large step will be one large step spiraling down IMO.

As always, finger on the pulse each step of the way :)

[soulman]

Yeah, you nailed the 2 stocks I missed opps.

Where were my orders for CVR at 3.3 when it got there the other day. And sold my PXG on that same day for 23.

Back to LNC, it's actually looking quite strong with 2 more hours to go. I might have a punt.......again.

[drillfix]

Dont know if I worry too much about LNC for the moment there soulman.

As LNC is only in another upper range of Chop at present.

Key is to look for a break upwards of 1.625c with hopefully the 13ema crossing the 60ema on the 60min chart to the bottom left as follows:

LNC Intraday >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ztxb8kjsdaei60viazg_LNC-Intraday.png


On the negative side view the upper charts being the 15 and 5 min and beware of a break downwards of 1.52c

Both will be keys to the eventual direction along with what side of the EMA the stock trades on short term.

On the daily to the right, notice that price went right up there to touch the 13ema

Meanwhile, the daily indicators shows some potential for a future run at some stage, yet until the correct setup presents itself I would still be very cautious of such moves in these markets as you can imagine due to the previous new downtrend, which should also be traded with extreme prejudice towards taking profits continually until the setup states otherwise.

Good Luck anybody else also trading or holding LNC.

[soulman]

Yeah Drill, I punt again and sold for a half a buck profits.

Something doesn't smell right with LNC. First the cash burn of more than $250 mil is a bit rough for 1 year. The on-market BB has stop when the share price is cheaper. Something is not adding up. I think I'll leave this one alone unless it gets back to $1.43.

[drillfix]

Something is not adding up. I think I'll leave this one alone unless it gets back to $1.43.


I tend to agree, and that sounds about right on a re entry, unless of course it continues further below that.

Not really worried about the politics or rights or wrong with the co, just the short term moves but not much fun when stuck in a range as you know.

Made a trade on BSL today after viewing the daily and got an entry at 38.5c to soon see it hit 38c and then bounced back to 38.5c

Decided not long after watching the game of ping pong between 38 & 38.5c to make an exit back out for - brokerage @ 38.5c to wait for further signs of upward pressure which still may take a few more days or week.

Ahh well, the things we do and stocks we find ourselves in at times hey :)

[soulman]

BSL is a tough one Drill. One of my earlier days, I used to trade BSL from $7 to $10 range. They were kind to me. I was an amateur back then and still am probably. Looking at them now, with ND of $1.5 bil, BSL could be RIP in about 6 months time. Not the kind of stock I like to trade where they can be suspended at anytime.

Good to see you exit when you see no upwards buying.

Just imagine I sold MTS at $4.09 today after getting them for $4.05 the day before. And they closed at $4.24. Geeez, that can make anyone MAD.

Back to LNC and a little off topics, I am with the same strategy as you Drill. When we take a position, we really want that position to move favourably within a day or 2.

[soulman]

LNC back ito the $1.40's. I think I will leave this one alone for now. 2 profitable trades are better than none. Still no BB, probably they are preserving cash for another bad investment.

[drillfix]

The intraday charts show a good breakdown soulman, so if inclined to re enter then watch for the bounce @ 1.42 'ish BUT, failing that or should it break down from there, then forget it for a while as the 60 min chart clearly shows the negative recent sell off and potential further fall, or bounce with global markets and news pending.

The daily started to show promise prior to the last couple of days and ended up touching the declining 13ema so bit of a sucker rally really. Many stocks have also done this so LNC is not alone here.


Here is a chart of LNC as follows, though take note of the 60 min chart to the bottom left with the price trading towards the lower part of the 60 min consolidation range, which a glimpse can also be marked on the right daily chart as well. Fortunately with IB if you draw on one chart it carries through on to other linked charts.


LNC intraday & daily >> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/g0u5lhs1jgxz2m0oyuk_LNCintraday.png


There you have it, however a time for caution all round IMO.

[soulman]

Drill, looks like maybe LNC might be due for a bounce after plunging 40 odd percent in less than 3 weeks. Might have a dip tomorrow. Also BB back on line.

[drillfix]

Well, no worries souly, I will also keep an eye on this for tomorrow too~!

BB? Either I have forgotten or just simply know what this means...lol

[soulman]

Buyback Drill.

[drillfix]

Buyback Drill.

Ahh, of course, sorry mate, too many acronym's in this world. On top of all the computer ones I know I cant even speak english anymore...lol


With regards to a trade today, I dont think so, not really enough spread or momentum and the 15 min is now driving the 60 min to negative.

Saying that, the daily chart has a couple of indicators prepping for a move which we can all see.

Good luck souly~!

[soulman]

Thanks Drill. I am in at 1.055.

[drillfix]

Thanks Drill. I am in at 1.055.

Well played souly, keep with it mate~!

[soulman]

Not yet Drill. Still got them. Bought more at 1.08 so very committed now.

[drillfix]

I take it this is a swing trade for you then yeah?

[soulman]

Sure is Drill. Tomorrow will be a nice day to exit at a higher price hopefully.

[soulman]

Got out late at $1.105. Looks strong at the close so definitely looking to re-enter next week.

[drillfix]

I actually had an buy order ready enter earlier today, and viewing the chart had a target of 1.17 approx on the daily chart, but as the price never kept the up momentum, it surely means that it will gradually fall instead, as it had done, so I can understand your exit there souly.

Will also revisit this next week for a fresh look.

Again, well done for upping your batting average :)

[Financially dependant]

It looks like 1.055 has a good level of support, plenty of buying at these levels....If the price is retested at 1.055 on lower volume I would punt it is a good re-entry price..

3745

[drillfix]

Not a bad idea there FD,

Although I think this buy back at present is keeping the price maintained just above that, so no doubt will also look for any weakness to set in.

[soulman]

WTF?? I missed this ride Drill and FD. Did you both get a slice?

Closed at $1.33 (+17.7%) and as high as $1.43. No news.

[Financially dependant]

WTF?? I missed this ride Drill and FD. Did you both get a slice?

Closed at $1.33 (+17.7%) and as high as $1.43. No news.

Not me missed this one...there will be other opportunities tho..

[drillfix]

WTF?? I missed this ride Drill and FD. Did you both get a slice?

Closed at $1.33 (+17.7%) and as high as $1.43. No news.

Unfortunately, missed the move today souly.

Had a few other things to take care of, but as always, take your finger off the pulse, and the horse bots out of the gate.

A few stocks have done this today and as frustrating as it is, that's life in the fast lane.

[drillfix]

Souly, you out there mate?

Thought you would have been on to this one and seems like we both missed the boat on the news which to me, unexpectedly has shown up.

Thinking about a position at some stage!

Anybody else on LNC atm?

[OutToLunch]

Not in, but still watching closely. I was looking at my options for getting back in below 1.10 but left it alone in the end... too many unanswered questions... especially regarding cash burn and current cash/debt levels. Nice rise today though, will it be sustained?

[drillfix]

Not in, but still watching closely. I was looking at my options for getting back in below 1.10 but left it alone in the end... too many unanswered questions... especially regarding cash burn and current cash/debt levels. Nice rise today though, will it be sustained?


OTL, No crystal ball stuff from me however, I feel if it were going to continue a leg up, it would have done so by now.

Whilst looking at the 60 min chart, the 13ema resides currently @ $1.21 which could be a pivot point for tomorrow if the stock closes below $1.275

Like you, just watching in the meantime!

[OutToLunch]

Holy moly. LNC dived under 60c today, very ugly. The contrarian in me sees this selloff as a high risk-high return buying opportunity for those with a medium term outlook, but I don't have the cash (or the cajones) to get back in myself. Good luck to anyone game enough to give it a go though.

[Crypto Crude]

I have no idea why LNC's SP is languishing...
"One tonne of coal gasified and converted into oil results in 1-1.5 barrels of oil... in short, the Powder river basin has more oil in coal reserves than saudia arabia's oil reserves..."

LNC have billions of tonnes of coal...
they have a proven technology... World first in jet fuel from there ucg to fly a jet...

whats happening?

:cool:
.^sc

[upside_umop]

They're a fraud?

Peter Bond talks the talk but doesn't actually get anywhere.

They sold off that coal asset for millions (billions in PV) pay out a massive dividend (so Peter Bond can be cash rich) and buy some oil fields in the states for cash flow. To be honest, I think you went to them with a semi good idea, they'd pay you a lot of money for it!

I just don't think they're commercially viable? Would love to be proven wrong!

[soulman]

They're a fraud?

Peter Bond talks the talk but doesn't actually get anywhere.

They sold off that coal asset for millions (billions in PV) pay out a massive dividend (so Peter Bond can be cash rich) and buy some oil fields in the states for cash flow. To be honest, I think you went to them with a semi good idea, they'd pay you a lot of money for it!

I just don't think they're commercially viable? Would love to be proven wrong!

Their cash burn is massive the last few quarters. MC still large at 330 mil and cash dwindling into negative soon I reckon.

The old saying UU, they got the Indians to pay massive premium for their coal asset and then they pay more massive premium for their other asset. I guess the execs has cashed out on their lucrative options and that 10 cents dividends.

[Fred114]

Big announcement of large oil discovery today.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/massive-oil-find-puts-linc-in-orbit/story-e6frg9df-1226561270645

Up 10% so far today......

Disc: don't hold

[Crypto Crude]

wow fred,
LNC is really moving now...
gutted...
too late for me to consider investment...
this company has something real sizable in it...
:cool:
.^sc