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POSSUM THE CAT
06-06-2008, 09:59 AM
Duncan: can you recomend a tiler to do minor repairs to a concrete tile roof? TIA

duncan macgregor
06-06-2008, 10:48 AM
Duncan: can you recomend a tiler to do minor repairs to a concrete tile roof? TIA Sorry POSSUM i dont want to get into recomending anyone for anything kind of business. Macdunk

patsy
06-06-2008, 01:48 PM
Taito Phillip Fields should be able to. Great rates as well.

huffer
13-11-2008, 02:53 PM
Macdunk - what are your thoughts on building a kitset home (A1, Platinum etc)...

1) in general?
2) in the current financial environment?

Much appreciated.

duncan macgregor
13-11-2008, 03:16 PM
Macdunk - what are your thoughts on building a kitset home (A1, Platinum etc)...

1) in general?
2) in the current financial environment?

Much appreciated. In general nothing wrong with a kitset home if you know the carpenter who makes or breaks the project. I dont have any information {good or otherwise on platinum homes] but will leave you some general advice on what to do.
Arrange your finance and only pay for things as they get done never in advance of being done. Dont get caught out with paying a large deposit then if the building company goes broke { who ever it is] you lose the deposit. Dont move in or pay the final payment until the code of compliance cert is issued. Have a good look at the building companies recently finished houses and ask the people if they are satisfied. Macdunk

Crypto Crude
13-11-2008, 03:27 PM
how does it feel to lose against me in a stock picking competition?
and dont say this and that about im outa the market...
remember--> to me its nothing more than just a bad stock pick... hehehhehe
we all get them
;)
.^sc

duncan macgregor
13-11-2008, 06:47 PM
how does it feel to lose against me in a stock picking competition?
and dont say this and that about im outa the market...
remember--> to me its nothing more than just a bad stock pick... hehehhehe
we all get them
;)
.^scSHREWDY, more to the point how does it feel to lose to me in real life reading the market. Remember who told you to get out the market and when they predicted the crash. Perhaps we should trade names like SHREWD MACDUNK. We could call you the STOP LOSS KID. The competition is over on the 19th so dont count your chickens just yet. Macdunk

STRAT
14-11-2008, 10:55 AM
SHREWDY, more to the point how does it feel to lose to me in real life reading the market. Remember who told you to get out the market and when they predicted the crash. Perhaps we should trade names like SHREWD MACDUNK. We could call you the STOP LOSS KID. The competition is over on the 19th so dont count your chickens just yet. MacdunkCouldnt resist mentioning the bit about being "out of the market" eh?:D:D:D

I have a question Macca if I may.

Is your Investment account cashed up too? :p

corran
14-11-2008, 12:05 PM
I am sick of being right all the time :D Macdunk


Macdunk, firstly I enjoy your posts... they're entertaining and you've made some good points. Also, wrt your posts from earlier this year, you've been spot on with the timing. But lets not get toooo smug eh.... here, for example, is an extract from a post of yours from sharechat dated 9th August 2007:

The next big crash is at least two years away in my opinion. The reason for the next crash is the indebtedness off America to china. Nothing big will happen before the olympic games in china, or the presidential election in America.

The reason I remembered that post is that earlier in the thread you'd smugly told me how you'd doubled your money in shares in the 6 months that I'd been mostly cashed up.

But then on the 16th August you posted this:

The way the market has gone today this is the next big crash. Never mind i decided no point selling what i have left in the market, might as well sit it out now.

Full credit to you, you did get out in time, unlike me who dipped my toe back in the water and got it bitten off my the bear. But lets keep it real eh?? :p:D

shasta
14-11-2008, 05:02 PM
Macdunk, firstly I enjoy your posts... they're entertaining and you've made some good points. Also, wrt your posts from earlier this year, you've been spot on with the timing. But lets not get toooo smug eh.... here, for example, is an extract from a post of yours from sharechat dated 9th August 2007:

The next big crash is at least two years away in my opinion. The reason for the next crash is the indebtedness off America to china. Nothing big will happen before the olympic games in china, or the presidential election in America.

The reason I remembered that post is that earlier in the thread you'd smugly told me how you'd doubled your money in shares in the 6 months that I'd been mostly cashed up.

But then on the 16th August you posted this:

The way the market has gone today this is the next big crash. Never mind i decided no point selling what i have left in the market, might as well sit it out now.

Full credit to you, you did get out in time, unlike me who dipped my toe back in the water and got it bitten off my the bear. But lets keep it real eh?? :p:D

Gotta give Macdunk credit for at least being prepared to come out & make a statement & stick to it (rather than all the fence sitters, & hindsight experts).

Problem is when you stick your neck out, people will always look to pull you apart when your wrong, & Macdunk will always fess up when wrong...

I'd like more people to come off the fence on ST!

Crypto Crude
14-11-2008, 06:17 PM
Macdunk will always fess up when wrong...

really?
He never fessed up when the RBNZ started cutting interest rates big time, he was adament about fixed term mortgages, and still is as far as I know it...
;)
.^sc

shasta
14-11-2008, 06:41 PM
really?
He never fessed up when the RBNZ started cutting interest rates big time, he was adament about fixed term mortgages, and still is as far as I know it...
;)
.^sc

...eventually :D

corran
14-11-2008, 06:46 PM
Gotta give Macdunk credit for at least being prepared to come out & make a statement & stick to it (rather than all the fence sitters, & hindsight experts).

True, Macdunk deserves credit which I said in my earlier post.


Problem is when you stick your neck out, people will always look to pull you apart when your wrong
very true Shasta... a prime example of getting pulled apart (even when right) where the posters who stuck their neck out and dared to critcise Uran prior to a few months ago


Macdunk will always fess up when wrong... from what I recall Macdunk never fessed up for being wrong about NZO which had an absolutely stellar run from $1.00 through to $1.80 or so earlier in the year. From what I remember he dissed it the whole way up...

shasta
14-11-2008, 07:01 PM
True, Macdunk deserves credit which I said in my earlier post.


very true Shasta... a prime example of getting pulled apart (even when right) where the posters who stuck their neck out and dared to critcise Uran prior to a few months ago

from what I recall Macdunk never fessed up for being wrong about NZO which had an absolutely stellar run from $1.00 through to $1.80 or so earlier in the year. From what I remember he dissed it the whole way up...


True, but remember Macdunk has been on here a while now, & i remember some very good advice from him on HQP a few years back...

He's consistent & look at NZO, it's dropped right back!

corran
14-11-2008, 07:19 PM
He's consistent & look at NZO, it's dropped right back!

yes but, I thought Macdunk was fully in the technical analysis camp... now I am by now means a TA expert, but I would have though a TA investor would have been in during the uptrend and out when it went back down $1.60 or so.

shasta
14-11-2008, 07:29 PM
yes but, I thought Macdunk was fully in the technical analysis camp... now I am by now means a TA expert, but I would have though a TA investor would have been in during the uptrend and out when it went back down $1.60 or so.

No he's not in the TA camp, his 30 MA "theory" is just that...

Couple of years ago, TA was like reading the clouds, or tea leaves to him :rolleyes:

The best investors/traders use both FA & TA to some degree

Re NZO, any investor should have known the $1.50 option price was a floor & below that there was "trouble" ahead...

No one knows what oil will do, it could hit $30/bbl or skyrocket to $200/bbl

duncan macgregor
15-11-2008, 06:51 AM
Hey guys this thread started of by me being asked if i could recommend a tiler. Its now turned into a Macdunk hate or love thread. Who cares if i am right or wrong other than myself, as long as i say it as i see it in advance of the event. I wish a few more posters would be a bit more honest with their views and investments as it happens, as i do. I make mistakes along with all of you, but at least my mistakes being in the public arena in advance of the event keep me from making them.
Look at the fun you might have had with me saying 2008 would downtrend leading up to a crash after the olympics if the market had gone the other way. I dont really know how to read todays market, but intend to keep right out of it other than a tiny punt on CUE at an average of 14.5c just to upstage my mate SHREWDY who has 60% of his portfolio on at 21.5c. Macdunk

STRAT
15-11-2008, 11:30 AM
Hey guys this thread started of by me being asked if i could recommend a tiler. Its now turned into a Macdunk hate or love thread. Who cares if i am right or wrong other than myself, as long as i say it as i see it in advance of the event. I wish a few more posters would be a bit more honest with their views and investments as it happens, as i do. I make mistakes along with all of you, but at least my mistakes being in the public arena in advance of the event keep me from making them.
Look at the fun you might have had with me saying 2008 would downtrend leading up to a crash after the olympics if the market had gone the other way. I dont really know how to read todays market, but intend to keep right out of it other than a tiny punt on CUE at an average of 14.5c just to upstage my mate SHREWDY who has 60% of his portfolio on at 21.5c. Macdunk
Take it as a compliment Macca, Corran has appointed himself as the official ST Macdunk Annalist. :D

Crypto Crude
15-11-2008, 01:55 PM
mackdunk,
question time---->

why did you get CUE?
did you get it so you would always have it over me with a lower entry price...?
im only down one third...its just a bad stock pick...
I could not be happier....
but lower prices coming through is a tiny concern...esp if they keep falling...
its gone 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 55... whats next?
TA would not be buying?
so when do you think is a good time to go long on oil mackdunk?
:cool:
.^sc

STRAT
15-11-2008, 02:45 PM
. I wish a few more posters would be a bit more honest with their views. Macdunk Oil
140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 55 60 65

:D

By the way Duncan, hows the far North treating you?

duncan macgregor
15-11-2008, 03:10 PM
SHREWDY, The time to buy oil is when the world economy revs up next time. I would think that will be a major reshuffle of the world leading economies before that happens. I am quite content to sit it out until it all comes right. I hope it taught you to understand that the market is not ruled by common sense, but ruled by greed and fear. The fundamental hold forever and a day types have all taken a huge hiding.
The American credit way of life that we adopt will self destruct, if not this time then next time fear grips the market. The most important rule in investing is [IF IN DOUBT GET OUT]. I would think the worst has still to come, this is only the beginning of of a prolonged depressed period with people that have money to scared to buy shares.
I dont mind having a little dabble in the market just for fun, like buying a lotto ticket or a few shares in thrill and drill, but i wont be in with any intent for at least another year. Macdunk

duncan macgregor
15-11-2008, 06:51 PM
mackdunk,
question time---->

why did you get CUE?
did you get it so you would always have it over me with a lower entry price...?
im only down one third...its just a bad stock pick...
I could not be happier....
but lower prices coming through is a tiny concern...esp if they keep falling...
its gone 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 55... whats next?
TA would not be buying?
so when do you think is a good time to go long on oil mackdunk?
:cool:
.^scSHREWDY, I bought CUE simply because i thought it had a chance of coming good, and secondly so that you couldnt come back later saying i told you so. At the moment i am more interested in catching a bigger fish than the one i got last time. TA would see you right out the market like i have been. I only play the game when the odds are in my favour. The writing is on the wall for large sections in the market to downtrend so who cares about picking the bottom?.
Only fools try that, let the market pick its own bottom, that way you might only miss a few cents with money at 7 or 8% sitting safely in the bank. Oil wont uptrend until the market gets back on track, then we will get peak oilers raving on all over again. Money at the moment Shrewdy is a very risky thing to hold if you consider what it actually is. Its a little bit of paper with a promise to pay stampted on it.
Much better having material assets that are still worth something if the whole lot turns to custard. The idea when investing is to look for and understand the sign posts leading up to tomorrows market and beyond. Macdunk

Nitaa
17-11-2008, 08:34 PM
Macca. Have you held property this year? Last it it showed signs of the downward trend. IMO this was the first time for a long time to exit the property market.

As far as people sticking their neck out or not then surely it is up to the individual. As you have said in the past when i asked you how much money you invested you basically said, "mind your own business". Therefore i am in the view that other posters have no need to disclose who their real identity is or how much they invested into what where when etc. Therefore i think you should respect other posters decision even if you dont agree with them.

On a seperate note i was interested to hear peoples opinions especially stock brokers and the likes to share their views on the current crisis. I had asked the comment about the impact on hedge funds, cfd's etc. The more i see it or understand it the more i think that these tools for investing have led to a greater impact on the financial meltown. Hedge funds and traders have exagerated the the rise in oil and other commodities and is looking to have the same impact dowards. The obvious thing to happen is the longer or more decline in oil prices the bigger the impact in a few years time. The world is running a serious risk of chaos if this isnt addressed asap.

However i am an optimist and since the world is a perfect it has a way of finding itself.

Crypto Crude
17-11-2008, 10:31 PM
nita-
As far as people sticking their neck out or not then surely it is up to the individual. As you have said in the past when i asked you how much money you invested you basically said, "mind your own business". Therefore i am in the view that other posters have no need to disclose who their real identity is or how much they invested into what where when etc. Therefore i think you should respect other posters decision even if you dont agree with them.


nita,
there is a difference between posters saying when and what price they are buying and exiting as so forth compared to how much money they have...
Its rude to ask how rich people are, or how much they get paid... but if they want to disclose that then thats up to them...
Ive openly said what I have and the fact that I came up from nothing 5 years ago means that I dont really mind saying what I have...
mackdunk and I are stubborn individuals...
He thinks that hes out done me but its totally the opposite...
ive outperformed him every year for 5 years I bet...gotta give him one back eah...
If CUE gets back to 18 cents or so then I'll outperform him again this year...
2 bagger rpm...
money made on AKK, WHN, LMPO, MEO...big positions on the last two...
breakeven on LMP...
lost 500 on FAR... a few more bucks on CTP, and CTPOA...
and CUE, and
cant think of any other trades...
its been a magical year even with my bold move on CUE...
In two days mackdunk will lose our stock picking competition after he made a few crucial mistakes which I will explain later (which cost him the competition)......
mackdunk got the most important thing right this year...
he is still trailing me in the overall scheme of things...ie 5yrs...
give it up to me mackdunk... instead of this blah blah market this market that...
you lucky you would have lost 90% of the portfolio had you held your resource stocks...
good to see oilers like NZO outperform...
resource stocks come and go..good oilers stick around...
hehehe... your mate keeping you honest...
:cool:
.^sc

duncan macgregor
18-11-2008, 11:33 AM
SHREWDY, Macdunk might be a silly old bugger but he was never stupid enough to place 60% of his worth on an illiquid share and watch it drop over 30%. I told you before to get out the market, never fall in love with a company, and above all have a stop loss. The fishing up here is great beats playing silly buggers in a downtrending market. You got to concede that i picked the market dead right down to the last few weeks well in advance of the event. I dont expect to be a world champion at anything quite content to beat the average mug at most things.
You will be a much wiser person for doing combat with me this year, hope you learned a few tricks in the process. Remember if the world financial system collapses the only thing worth having is material assets. Have you learned to walk like a champion like i showed you or was i just wasting my time ?. Your old mate Macdunk trying to teach you something as usual.

Crypto Crude
18-11-2008, 01:03 PM
mackdunk...
Im in love with no company... I will sell a stock any day of the week if it changes...
Sold MEO (big time), CUE before, FAR around 12c when it turned, TEX, most importantly sold NWE when I was in love with it at that time with 80% wealth in it.. it had forward projected earnings multiples of its market cap......(always hard to sell those ones)...
Held onto CUE, it had time delays...nothing changed significantly in the company just the timing of its asset deliverly... its the same story as it was last month...I only sell on material changes....
you see the difference
... thought you would have understood that my now...

stop losses are for whimps, and im not selling nothing that I spot and move on when nothing material changes.. oil prices falling is changing this abit..... inground assets worth 20 times the market cap... real value... blah blah blah... just walked into it at the wrong time...
I was a man of stocks, not a man of market risk... this will have to change...
you are part 'man of stocks', mostly a man of market risk...

my move on CUE was rather savvy... had I held pretty much any other oil stock, I would have lost more...

I have nothing to concede to you...
:cool:
.^sc

duncan macgregor
18-11-2008, 01:41 PM
mackdunk...
Im in love with no company... I will sell a stock any day of the week if it changes...
Sold MEO (big time), CUE before, FAR around 12c when it turned, TEX, most importantly sold NWE when I was in love with it at that time with 80% wealth in it.. it had forward projected earnings multiples of its market cap......(always hard to sell those ones)...
Held onto CUE, it had time delays...nothing changed significantly in the company just the timing of its asset deliverly... its the same story as it was last month...I only sell on material changes....
you see the difference
... thought you would have understood that my now...

stop losses are for whimps, and im not selling nothing that I spot and move on when nothing material changes.. oil prices falling is changing this abit..... inground assets worth 20 times the market cap... real value... blah blah blah... just walked into it at the wrong time...
I was a man of stocks, not a man of market risk... this will have to change...
you are part 'man of stocks', mostly a man of market risk...

my move on CUE was rather savvy... had I held pretty much any other oil stock, I would have lost more...

I have nothing to concede to you...
:cool:
.^sc Remind me to throw you another bit of bait some time. Macdunk

Crypto Crude
18-11-2008, 03:21 PM
No bait required mackdunk...
I always throw my fish back out to sea
...
catch and release mate...

had I bought a house when you told me too I would be far worse off now...
I would have been effectly bankrupted by your advice, and Joe kings.....
I would have lost tens of thousands of dollars by being locked into higher Fixed term interest rates......(for the sake of secured manageable payments)... and I would have lost tens of thousands of dollars on falling property prices...
:cool:
.^sc

Nitaa
18-11-2008, 03:57 PM
Speaking of Joe it seems a cash of reality hitting him.. Even Warren Buffet only averaged 25% gain each year. However i am sure Joe will be much wiser and i wont be surprised if he sold all his shares to catch to US wave on the currency

minimoke
19-11-2008, 10:35 AM
had I bought a house when you told me too I would be far worse off now...
I would have been effectly bankrupted by your advice, and Joe kings.....
I would have lost tens of thousands of dollars by being locked into higher Fixed term interest rates......(for the sake of secured manageable payments)... and I would have lost tens of thousands of dollars on falling property prices...

Actually SC fixed interest rates around the beginning of 07 were about 8% with floating around 9.75% They are now around 8.2% fixed and 9.45% floating. So if you buy now you will still be paying more in interest than a couple of years ago. You need to go back to 2003 /04 to get rates closer to the 6% mark.

You also wouldn’t have lost a bean on your property. You only loose if you had to sell. You weren’t in a position back in 07 to be highly gearing or leveraging your capital so it’s unlikely you would have gotten into the rental property market at that time – so you wouldn’t be under pressure now to sell.

If you had bought back in early 07 on a fixed rate you could have sat back unconcerned while interest rates increased another 1.5% before they began dropping. This would have saved you around $4,000 in cash or $6,000 in gross earnings. This is getting close to what your perceived and theoretical loss might have been over that period – remembering of course that property prices continued to grow into late 07, early 08 before values started to drop away.

If you’d taken out a 2 year fixed (as I do) you would be coming off your fixed early in 09 into a dropping interest rate period and you could play the interest game – either re-fixing or staying with the variable rates for a while (at about 1.25% higher than fixed) until they hit a level you were comfortable with.

Crypto Crude
19-11-2008, 11:33 AM
minimoke-Actually SC fixed interest rates around the beginning of 07 were about 8% with floating around 9.75% They are now around 8.2% fixed and 9.45% floating. So if you buy now you will still be paying more in interest than a couple of years ago. You need to go back to 2003 /04 to get rates closer to the 6% mark.

You also wouldn’t have lost a bean on your property. You only loose if you had to sell. You weren’t in a position back in 07 to be highly gearing or leveraging your capital so it’s unlikely you would have gotten into the rental property market at that time – so you wouldn’t be under pressure now to sell.


Last week ise down at kiwi bank and im sure that I saw fixed rates below 8%... there was one other bank below 8%...
Its also not what the rates are now, what they will be next year with continuing cuts throughout the year...
bold and underlined---> great then, I have not lost a cent on CUE huh...
;)
.^sc

minimoke
19-11-2008, 11:55 AM
Last week ise down at kiwi bank and im sure that I saw fixed rates below 8%... there was one other bank below 8%...
Its also not what the rates are now, what they will be next year with continuing cuts throughout the year...
bold and underlined---> great then, I have not lost a cent on CUE huh...
;)
.^sc
Yup – around 7.7% at Jims Bank.

If you follow the Belg Stock Investment technique you sure haven’t lost anything on CUE. Indeed following this technique you should be locking in your profits by buying more. The trick being the greater the fall, the more you buy. Well proven with FTX and Snoopy is doing well on RBD. This investment technique isn’t so great with property though – bits of land just don’t have the liquidity that shares do. Unless you live by the sea and believe in Global Warming

Crypto Crude
19-11-2008, 12:08 PM
minimoke-Yup – around 7.7% at Jims Bank.

If you follow the Belg Stock Investment technique you sure haven’t lost anything on CUE. Indeed following this technique you should be locking in your profits by buying more. The trick being the greater the fall, the more you buy. Well proven with FTX and Snoopy is doing well on RBD. This investment technique isn’t so great with property though – bits of land just don’t have the liquidity that shares do. Unless you live by the sea and believe in Global Warming


minimoke,
I made such a bold move on CUE early on, and that Maari production was suppost to kick in offsetting a falling market... that never happened with delays... CUE has proven inground resource worth about 20 times the market value of the company, So I made a bold move with 60% all in...
Im afraid there is no more buying from me to come..:D...

me old man picked up a swagga of CUE yesterday at 13cents....
hey mackdunk, whats up... you are now being double teamed... hehehehe
;)
.^sc

Serpie
20-11-2008, 09:22 AM
hey mackdunk, whats up... you are now being double teamed... hehehehe
;)
.^sc

Make that tripled teamed MacDunk!

You got the stockmarket 100%. Kudos to you for that. But your (and my own) advice to young Shrewdy on the property side of things was wrong.

I also said, around 12 months ago I think, to get into the property market as soon as you could, but that would've been a mistake in hindsight. I''m trying to sell properties at the moment and my big concern is getting them on the market quickly enough to avoid further falls. It's scary out there.
And locking in interests rates at the moment is also a no-no IMO. Stay liquid and stay flexible.

Speaking with reall estate agents and some friends there's seems to have been a major shift in the banks risk appetite, with the old 20% deposit rule being dusted off and re-applied. It's good to see that the sub-prime lessons have been learnt and applied.

Nitaa
20-11-2008, 02:35 PM
Make that quad teamed mcdunked. Even only for a supporting role

GTM 3442
20-11-2008, 05:34 PM
Just a question - why money in the bank ? Why not bonds ? OK there's brokerage, but as interest rates decline, bonds have to look good - decent interest rate, locked in at some % above bank rates for a decent length of time.

STRAT
20-11-2008, 06:29 PM
Make that quad teamed mcdunked. Even only for a supporting roleHell has frozen over and a 300lb Dermantsi Pied Porker just flew past my window :eek:

Crypto Crude
21-11-2008, 12:16 AM
serpie-
Make that tripled teamed MacDunk!

You got the stockmarket 100%. Kudos to you for that. But your (and my own) advice to young Shrewdy on the property side of things was wrong.

I also said, around 12 months ago I think, to get into the property market as soon as you could, but that would've been a mistake in hindsight. I''m trying to sell properties at the moment and my big concern is getting them on the market quickly enough to avoid further falls. It's scary out there.
And locking in interests rates at the moment is also a no-no IMO. Stay liquid and stay flexible.

Speaking with reall estate agents and some friends there's seems to have been a major shift in the banks risk appetite, with the old 20% deposit rule being dusted off and re-applied. It's good to see that the sub-prime lessons have been learnt and applied.


thanks serpie,
Ive been waiting for mackdunk to say something about his advice he gave me awhile back...Ive hit him up a couple of times and he went around my questions... I will leave it up to him...
I have plenty of time to wait for a response...
I can wait another 1.5% OCR cut, I can wait another year plus of house prices falling, it will only get worse....
We had hundreds of firey debates on that thread with Joeking also... Right now id be negative geared in housing by about 50k I reckon with his path of buying a house, and fixed interest rates... im 20k in shares with my path...
thats a 70k difference...
When I buy my first house in 2009, most likely 2010 id hope mackdunk would repay the favour and fly down to chch, and with his talents help me buy a great house... hehehehe...
He is talented, but as I said many times, blinded by the fact that house prices have only done him well over the long term... This sort of blinding has partially lead to my demise on my portfolio which has halved in value at my peak during 2007 when it hit 42k and now im only 20k ish give or take market worth... but I did spend 5k to go to China...
yeah harrgghhh... Gotta love this mate...

serpie-->what should I do next year,
buy more shares, or start tucking it away for that house?...
remember housing falls, sharemarket falls, I remain indifferent between the two....
:cool:
.^sc

duncan macgregor
21-11-2008, 07:32 AM
SHREWDY, First of all congrats for pipping me at the post in our competition. You attitude is still wrong about future investments, and what you should have learned from this latest on going crash. Remember what i told you Shrewdy down trend leading up to the olympics leading up to a crash. After that prediction coming right you might perhaps take notice of my next one. The crash will get much worse than you might think right now, you cant throw good money after bad to prop up consumption in ailing sectors.
The American car industry has had it leaving three million car industry related workers on the scrap heap. Money my friend might be worth nothing at all, the house that you live in with a fixed mortgage interest rate you might pay off with a weeks wages working at Macdonalds.
In bad times you must have an understandable level of debt insured against payments that you cant afford. Sometimes as is the case at the moment it goes the wrong way which has the dont know people jumping up and down saying i told you so.
You played the game like SNOOPY. You fell in love with an illiquid company hard to get out of without a stop loss. When it downtrended you started bleating about how right you were, and how wrong the market was. The market is irrational, which is good for the people that dont fall in love with companies, and can stand back and look at it in a cold calculating way.
Houses will never be built cheaper than they are today. What happens is the building game stops the demand increases and house values increase at a much faster rate than ever. I have always said buy a house cheaper than construction cost at any stage in the cycle and you are on to a winner. Macdunk

Serpie
21-11-2008, 07:45 AM
serpie-->what should I do next year,
buy more shares, or start tucking it away for that house?... .^sc

I was going to ask you!

As far as I'm concerned it's all about building arks at the moment.

I'm staying away from the sharemarket at the moment (mostly) because I'm putting all of my money into trying to tart up and sell properties. Now that is an expensive exercise! And we're getting rid of everything because I dont want to be carrying a lot of debt through next year. So everything goes, we repay debt, and find a nice house to hide in.
That's Ark No 1.

I gave my guys a "state of the nation" speech last week. We're booked to about 110% capacity from now until April, and we've got a couple of big jobs that we have verbal confirmation for that will take us to about 130% capacity. So I've told them that Christmas is not cancelled, but it's been ringfenced, and they can take their holidays in April if they have any. We're going to go flat out until April and get as much behind us as we can.
That's Ark No 2.

The main reason is that, as contractors, we see projects about 6-12 months after the consultants see them. And speaking with the consultants, they are saying that after April there is nothing. There's plenty of things that people want to do, but the finance isn't there. Most of the stuff that we're looking at now is either central or regional government spending. Not a lot of private stuff.
There are others who say that there is work coming up after that time, but I'm getting mixed messages, so I'm building arks.

I've been in business for 13 years, and Christmas is very expensive for businesses. I expect the failure rate of companies, both in NZ and the rest of the world, to be pretty significant this Christmas. And that's going to impact everything. It will take a long time to wash through the sharemarket and the housing market, and it will create opportunities for those with resources.

So my advice would be to buy nothing, and collect as much loose change as you can, and sit on it. There's a storm coming, and although it may not be of biblical proportions, and it may only clip you on the way past, an ark may be a handy thing to have lying in the back garden.

I suppose I could've summarised all of that by saying "hope for the best but prepare for the worst"

minimoke
21-11-2008, 09:34 AM
... im 20k in shares with my path...
thats a 70k difference...
When I buy my first house in 2009, most likely 2010 ....
Hmm – good luck. When you started your thread back in 07 getting money from the bank was easy. We can even remember when Westpac was offering 110% mortgages. Now where are we? Finance has tightened up, banks are a lot more risk adverse. When you come to buy next year the bank could well be saying “we want a 20% deposit and repayments no more than 40% of income”. Your $20k in next years market will get you a $100k house – and I can’t see the market dropping that much. Oh- and my floating mortgage is working well – I’m getting a 9.5% net return out of my cash which is less than the 10.5% I was recently getting. But that’s a whole lot better than bank deposits, share dividends or what growth I could get in stocks at the moment. And its guaranteed – no risk at all. A property mortgage isn’t a bad place to be at the moment.

Crypto Crude
21-11-2008, 10:40 AM
thanks serpie and minimoke... I guess I have saving to do... oh well, I have some time...more than a year I guess...

in that last post from mackdunk--> I have replied to all mackdunks pointers, statements of that post in other posts very similar to that one and I see little point explaining myself over and over... im sure theres an answer to that exact post from me if you want to find it, just troll through the threads... hehehe... (for-real)....

Im nothing like snoopy, dont even go there...
if you dont watch it I will start comparing you to Nita...:D
:cool:
.^sc

Nitaa
21-11-2008, 11:49 AM
Houses will never be built cheaper than they are today. What happens is the building game stops the demand increases and house values increase at a much faster rate than ever. I have always said buy a house cheaper than construction cost at any stage in the cycle and you are on to a winner. MacdunkI dont agree with you. Falling prices of raw materials, unemployment go to 20% as an example then all of a sudden building a house may become cheaper.

Raw materials and commodity prices are colapsing. look at fontera with a 24% drop in titty prices. Oil dropped 66% in just a few months. WOOD prices are falling as demand drops. Possibly you may end up with unem,ployed workers willing to accept 50% or the normal standard just to get some income. Your Nat party and Hide may want to scrub the minimum wage entitlement althougher.

Now do you think its possible that building costs can come down?

duncan macgregor
21-11-2008, 02:42 PM
NITA, I have been a builder all of my working life seen downturns depressions etc. I have still to see falling construction costs other than mortgagee auctions in timber yards or hardware companies going bust. The cost of compliance has rocketed up so with any luck that might change. Nobody builds a house for no profit in the building game to on sell it at a nil profit. We in NZ are about to witness a great exodis of skilled tradesmen who wont come back.
If you think otherwise then good luck to you you will find out the hard way.
Builders have one of the highest bankrupsy rates in any market, simply because of the tender system forcing the inexperianced ones into uncompromizing positions. If the system falls over then the only thing worth owning is material assets.
The American system is falling over we are in a better position to with stand the storm but not by much. Some people might be left with only a house, and the other material assets that they own. When i was in rhodesia the asking price for a large farm would not buy a hamburger today in Macdonalds. Dont think it cant happen here. Macdunk

Nitaa
21-11-2008, 03:08 PM
NITA, I have been a builder all of my working life seen downturns depressions etc. I have still to see falling construction costs other than mortgagee auctions in timber yards or hardware companies going bust. The cost of compliance has rocketed up so with any luck that might change. Nobody builds a house for no profit in the building game to on sell it at a nil profit. We in NZ are about to witness a great exodis of skilled tradesmen who wont come back.
If you think otherwise then good luck to you you will find out the hard way.
Builders have one of the highest bankrupsy rates in any market, simply because of the tender system forcing the inexperianced ones into uncompromizing positions. If the system falls over then the only thing worth owning is material assets.
The American system is falling over we are in a better position to with stand the storm but not by much. Some people might be left with only a house, and the other material assets that they own. When i was in rhodesia the asking price for a large farm would not buy a hamburger today in Macdonalds. Dont think it cant happen here. MacdunkYou missed my point here Macca.

Ask yourself this question. If there is no demand for raw materials such as wood, steel, concrete, oil etc what happens to these prices? They come down as we are witnessing already. If unemployment was to increase to 25% do you think employers will want to pay top dollar. You will have workers willing to build a house for you just to put food on the table.

You make the comment about Rhodesia. As it is now, that country has fallen apart with over 1,000,000% inflation pa. My comparision i am talking about is inflation adjusted.

Going by your post you must beat least 75 years old as you have expereinced a depression. If i am not wrong the last depression started in 1929 and continued for a few years. The rest have only been recessions.

minimoke
21-11-2008, 03:21 PM
If there is no demand for raw materials such as wood, steel, concrete, oil etc what happens to these prices?
Nita
There will nearly always be demand for building materials. Old houses need repairing, migrants and siblings need somewhere to live. The worlds population is continuing to unrelentingly expand. China, for example has slowed down – but culturally there is a huge shift from rural to city living which won’t be easily slowed. City people need more than country folks – this will create demand – and the same is in NZ.

As for unemployment, the first to go will be the unskilled. They will be replaced by temp workers and contractors. Next to go will be a bloated middle / senior management. I wouldn’t want either of these groups working on my house. Young trades people who loose their jobs will up sticks and head to where there is work – unemployment / redundancy is a great time to reassess life and head to greener pastures. So they will go off shore. Your older trades people will look at this as an opportunity to re-evaluate their life. Builders faced with hours in the baking sun or tillers looking at another 40 hours a week on their knees might decide there are better opportunities elsewhere. The remaining tradespeople will then become a scarce commodity – and their costs will go up.

Prices will go up – because that is what they do. Maybe not tomorrow but they will go up.

Nitaa
21-11-2008, 10:55 PM
Long term yes you are correct. Dont know about NZ at present but where i am living, transportation prices have come down, paper pulp, plastic and other raw materials have come down as well. That is my point. This has been caused by lower oil prices and a slowing demand. Most coutries are now in a recession which is further proof that demand in certain areas are dwindling. Let not forget the strong possibility of actual wages going down short term especially in some sectors. The new goverment may even be as bold to lower the minimum wages should unemployment go through the roof. Skilled tradespeople may not find the work overseas either therefore they may have to lower the cost to attract business.

Some of the above are possibilities only and would require a severe recession or depression.

Just for your information i remember coming back to nz around 1990. It was at a point that some sectors offered such poor wages/salaries that i was better off on the dole and work 1 day a week than a full 40 hours for a company.

duncan macgregor
23-11-2008, 08:47 AM
NITA, In 1966 the building game sunk to an all time low in NZ with no work or very little for carpenters. I and people like me, who were qualifief tradesmen, went over to northwest australia where we worked seven days a week, at three times the rates that we had in NZ.
It takes five years hard slog to become a tradesman, who are educated enough to chase the top dollar.
When i returned to NZ in 1972 i could name my own price, simply because all the qualified builders had left, and were replaced by the cowboys. The price of houses was skyrocketing the leaky home era was about to get underway. History repeats, we will see an exodis of qualified trades people, followed by skyrocketing house prices. I never would take a reduction in my rates, i simply left, and went where they were not that stupid and blind to not know what the end result would be.
Young SHREWDY in his inexperience compares the property market to the share market. He thinks that the price of building a new house has very little to do with the general level of the property market. New houses stop being built, then when the demand increases the tradesmen are gone. The yardstick in buying a property is construction cost with remaining life of material and replacement cost.
Example. A 15 year old iron roof with a replacement cost of $10,000 is half way into its life span, so deduct $5,000 from the new price and so on. Thats how to work out a bargain you must compare the life left, deducted from the new property cost of building. If you buy a property below construction cost, or replacement cost you can do it at any stage in the cycle. Macdunk

Crypto Crude
23-11-2008, 03:02 PM
that is right...
Mackdunk,
at the end of the day House prices are going to keep falling for quite possibly years to come... You must understand that it is all about sentiment, fear, and all that...
You are focused on the fundamentals of housing....
you have not thought about sentiment my friend... I mean who really cares what builders will or wont be doing in years to come...I could not give a cock a hoot about that sort of stuff... Or building costs, blah blah blah, 'yourve got to have a home', hoolie talk...

comparing sharemarket to property
...I do have opportunity cost decisions...
I am trading off between shares and housing... Portfolio theory says that risk adverse investors will hold cash and/or bonds.... Well my investment decisions are between shares and housing...
right now I could lose much more money in housing because of all the leverage that gets built up by taking out a big juicy sized debt facility at interest rates much higher than they will be in 6-12 months time...
Maybe my inexperience of housing has been my greatest asset...
Remember, its all about making money as macdunk would say regardless of what you invest in... Mackdunk has openly said he would invest in unethical companies, if there was money to be made from it....
In reality mackdunk has jumped out of the sharemarket, but it just makes me wonder if he had of held a few oilers then it would not have been as if he had held all his houses through the downturn fixed at higher interest rates...
Mackdunk, I never fall in love with no investment as you say,"I do"....
I just see things alittle differently, and post positive at times because that is what my outlook is... Sometimes im going to make bad stock picks... pity I had to start making them when 1929 came knocking at the door...
Remember, its all about money as mackdunk tells me...
So what ever you do make sure you 1) weigh up your differing investment decisions
and 2) which path will make you the most down the line, Ive asked mackdunk what house prices will be in one year, over the next few years, 5 and ten years away, right now... and he cunningly does not answer the questions... So I give up....I will prove to you this is no fluke...I will change my sentiment and tip housing when I see fit...
NZ housing market is only one year in of slumping prices...
be realistic, here... come on mackdunk, you tell us newbies what we should be doing when it comes to housing...
Should I have bought a house any time this year?
Should I be buying next year?
I dont think so... No... wait for a confirmed uptrend as mackdunk tells me in the stock market... In time we will show who was proved to be the inexperienced one...hehehehe
chao...
:cool:
.^sc

shasta
23-11-2008, 05:05 PM
that is right...
Mackdunk,
at the end of the day House prices are going to keep falling for quite possibly years to come... You must understand that it is all about sentiment, fear, and all that...
You are focused on the fundamentals of housing....
you have not thought about sentiment my friend... I mean who really cares what builders will or wont be doing in years to come...I could not give a cock a hoot about that sort of stuff... Or building costs, blah blah blah, 'yourve got to have a home', hoolie talk...

comparing sharemarket to property
...I do have opportunity cost decisions...
I am trading off between shares and housing... Portfolio theory says that risk adverse investors will hold cash and/or bonds.... Well my investment decisions are between shares and housing...
right now I could lose much more money in housing because of all the leverage that gets built up by taking out a big juicy sized debt facility at interest rates much higher than they will be in 6-12 months time...
Maybe my inexperience of housing has been my greatest asset...
Remember, its all about making money as macdunk would say regardless of what you invest in... Mackdunk has openly said he would invest in unethical companies, if there was money to be made from it....
In reality mackdunk has jumped out of the sharemarket, but it just makes me wonder if he had of held a few oilers then it would not have been as if he had held all his houses through the downturn fixed at higher interest rates...
Mackdunk, I never fall in love with no investment as you say,"I do"....
I just see things alittle differently, and post positive at times because that is what my outlook is... Sometimes im going to make bad stock picks... pity I had to start making them when 1929 came knocking at the door...
Remember, its all about money as mackdunk tells me...
So what ever you do make sure you 1) weigh up your differing investment decisions
and 2) which path will make you the most down the line, Ive asked mackdunk what house prices will be in one year, over the next few years, 5 and ten years away, right now... and he cunningly does not answer the questions... So I give up....I will prove to you this is no fluke...I will change my sentiment and tip housing when I see fit...
NZ housing market is only one year in of slumping prices...
be realistic, here... come on mackdunk, you tell us newbies what we should be doing when it comes to housing...
Should I have bought a house any time this year?
Should I be buying next year?
I dont think so... No... wait for a confirmed uptrend as mackdunk tells me in the stock market... In time we will show who was proved to be the inexperienced one...hehehehe
chao...
:cool:
.^sc

You really are the "shrewd" one, just as people thought property would only go up, & the sharemarket wouldnt fall so low...

Reality is house prices will be cheaper in 12 months time than they are now. I'm thinking in 2 years time there will still be bargins galore.

Some selective areas may do better, but like the stock market the easy pickings aren't as obvious anymore...

Consensus seems that the market will go sideways for a while, & the property sector isn't immune to the economies downturn...

I'll look at buying a house in a couple of years, just don't know if that will be in Wellington or Australia

duncan macgregor
24-11-2008, 07:29 AM
SHREWDY, Let me first start you off on your share investments, which have now lost you nearly half your gains. Learn what you did wrong, and never do it again. Read the commodoty price chart first, and the company second. Never fall in love with a company, or a commodoty, the shares all make money in the good times, to lose it in the bad times.
You missed your big chance to get into property, which is a long term investment through your inexperiance, and always being right attitude.
You now cant afford to buy, with deposits rising from 5%, to at least 20%. If you had bought a house at 10% deposit with a fixed interest rate of 8%, and lived in it with a few like minded people to pay rent this is what would happen.
The price of the house long term would increase in value by at least 10% PA, as they have averaged out over decades. You would have been 2% better off using the banks money.
You now find that you were smart enough to miss the opportunity like so many other people before you that try to bottom pick only to get covered in the crap of their own making.
Always get the figures to a level of affordability for the short term set in concrete, regardless of the market sentiment. Some times you win, some times you lose, but you never risk losing big time by trying to be smarter than the market.
So what if the market goes down it only creates buying opportunities in the short term, long term this market will rise faster than ever with you having missed your best entry point.
The construction cost is the yard stick in this game Shrewdy, get with it mate, dont miss out next time, this time you missed the opportunity. Macdunk

fungus pudding
24-11-2008, 08:07 AM
I dont agree with you. Falling prices of raw materials, unemployment go to 20% as an example then all of a sudden building a house may become cheaper.

Raw materials and commodity prices are colapsing. look at fontera with a 24% drop in titty prices. Oil dropped 66% in just a few months. WOOD prices are falling as demand drops. Possibly you may end up with unem,ployed workers willing to accept 50% or the normal standard just to get some income. Your Nat party and Hide may want to scrub the minimum wage entitlement althougher.

Now do you think its possible that building costs can come down?



You missed the biggie, which is falling undeveloped land prices.

George
24-11-2008, 09:16 AM
MacDunk
How long is longterm? After say, 10 years, a 300,000 house now would be worth about 777,000 with a 10% pa increase in value. Is that feasible? Some may argue that prices were too high and should be say 250k in which case one could expect an increase to 'only' about 610,000.
George

duncan macgregor
24-11-2008, 10:31 AM
MacDunk
How long is longterm? After say, 10 years, a 300,000 house now would be worth about 777,000 with a 10% pa increase in value. Is that feasible? Some may argue that prices were too high and should be say 250k in which case one could expect an increase to 'only' about 610,000.
George GEORGE, We can only go from personal experience. When i first arrived in NZ i could have bought a standard every day 3brm house for 3500 pounds or in todays currency $7000 in 1965. I have always made higher than 10% pa gain, but being a builder have an advantage edge over the average person. I know so many everyday people with not to flash occupations that are now filthy rich, simply because they understood the consept of using the banks money in a safe controled way to forge ahead.
Being in the building game i have met so many losers who never seem to buy their first house, because this or that, and end up paying people like us to place a roof over their head. Property increases in value at 10% plus rent pa less upkeep, rates etc. You can after three years refinance get your origional stake back and buy another self funding property. The secret is when its at the self funding stage lock it in regardless of market sentiment at that point in time.
The losers dont understand the consept, and try to pick the markets next move then miss out all the time. Look at SHREWDY for instance, he could have bought a house on a low deposit, and has now missed out. By the time he saves up the larger deposit the prices will have moved up to a higher level. Buying a property is any time you find one below construction cost that suits your needs, which is anytime in the price cycle. Macdunk

Crypto Crude
24-11-2008, 11:25 AM
mackdunk-
SHREWDY, Let me first start you off on your share investments, which have now lost you nearly half your gains. Learn what you did wrong, and never do it again. Read the commodoty price chart first, and the company second. Never fall in love with a company, or a commodoty, the shares all make money in the good times, to lose it in the bad times


mackdunk,
In a previous post you told me not to compare shares to housing... What are you now doing...?
I will explain all, because mackdunk could not keep his hand out of the cookie jar... Curiosity killed the cat...
his....
Infact as I said... my portfolio is down from an ultimate peak of 42 last year...... to now around 20, but I did spend 5k for china (which lasted 1 month easy living, which included flight ticket;))... and I did start with 3k 5 years back... and I have lived life and all that...
That ultimate peak was a major tip in my portfolio, when my portfolio ran up 10k in one month... and then in a two week dramatic spell, lost that 10k back on the market last year....
... hehehe...does not really count to me.... I had 42k for less than one day...

okok... Had I got into housing, I would be in an ultimate ILLIQUID market... Its the same thing they harp on with me and CUE (opppss?) hehehe....
if you are in housing you are 'locked' and loaded...

Suddenly that house that was 240k when mackdunk told me to buy is worth less than 200k now...
add on higher locked fixed term interest rates, and laggin floating rates (I will explain soon)...

minimoke, many large banks dropped floating rates .75% last week...Next OCR announcement is 10 days away...another cut early next month...

yes, there is still lag in time between real movements, (the OCR)... and between banks adjusting their rates...
this is called creaming,
heheehe... ...
..!
we can hopefully do the creaming when the ball is in our court, when you can fix at a minimum and see what position the bank takes to offset that position......
its very interesting... banks have two stances they can take when they take on extra (public debt)...
Will they open up an offsetting position within the market place , major strategy... or will they gamble that OCR cuts will continue and ride with the position...?
They should be creaming right now I tell you...
This will help offset some of the other worries currently in the banking sector......

Mackdunk, you are paying for this just like I am...
I Dont think yourve missed the market crash like you say you have.. with what you have told us about fixed term interest rates, we have debated the merits of fixed terms over and over.... a peak of what 9-10%... to an expected 5-6% floating within one year, and at ease in 2010 ...what a difference this is even after one or two years... compounding is a mumma... and what about if your fixed for 5 years.? are you mackdunk?

My dad told me there was real panic in Americ when he was there this and last month...
We should mainly be ok here in New Zealand, (apart from falling dairy prices), remember we are in love with housing... and will sometimes go out and panic buy...

Maybe it will now only take a major market meltdown to convince us how wrong we were in our past thoughts, eah......
This will bring us into totally uncharted territory that even it would seem Mackdunk has not experienced before......

if in Housing id be down 50k, on top of the share funds transferred into housing at the time mackdunk fully recommended I buy.... this is very likely to get worse...
so why would I do it mackdunk?

That decision would have effectively bankrupted myself... -50k owed after selling house...

what a start in life that would have been mackdunk?...
I can dodge bullets baby...
give it up to me mackdunk... dont have pity for me...
dont worry about my shares...
I can save 10k in the next year easy to top the current funds up for that house easy...
house dream is still alive...
and I will do it in my time...

as you said, lets not compare shares with housing..
I agree... I dont even know where to begin...
? hehehe.... I got you on that one mackdunk...
:)
.^sc

Crypto Crude
24-11-2008, 11:38 AM
mackdunk-
The losers dont understand the consept, and try to pick the markets next move then miss out all the time. Look at SHREWDY for instance, he could have bought a house on a low deposit, and has now missed out. By the time he saves up the larger deposit the prices will have moved up to a higher level. Buying a property is any time you find one below construction cost that suits your needs, which is anytime in the price cycle. Macdunk

This is where mackdunk usually fails to understand the differrence...
He is a long term buff that has done very well...
He is not the new kid on the block thinking about entry price...
He may think a hardline approach is best for my development...

The truth is... Mackdunk and a few others keep going on about how I now need a 20% deposit to get into housing...which is true...
This is of no concern at all....
House prices are falling also, which makes that deposit smaller, and ultimately the future committments to retire the debt on time...
also, falling interest rates over the next year will make it better again... double whammy people...If you are a first homebuyer, make sure you understand that a bigger deposit is now required...
save... great... you very well could have two years to save for that deposit...
Chance of a life time coming in a few years...
:cool:
.^sc

MrDevine
24-11-2008, 02:15 PM
Shrewd, you can't live in your shares. As you might know, there is never a good time to be in the market, and never a good time to be out of it, it depends on so many things.

Providing I don't lose my job, and interests rates come down to something around 5.5–6% (which is feasible if OCR goes to 4% as some economists predict) I'm going to halve my mortgage from 28 yrs, to 13. Sounds good to me.

I think market has got a bit more to go in some areas. Doomsday scenario if unemployment spikes to 10%+ and banks start calling in mortgages, then yes you'll get your bargain, but will you have a job?

George
24-11-2008, 02:47 PM
You may be right SC about uncharted territory. If so, would not the new govt. take steps to modify any widespread pain. eg. Banks may give unemployed mortgage holders a break for a couple of years. If prices go up in the future they will still come out ahead. We are waiting for a possible reduction in interest rates next month and may be able to fix lower at no cost. I don't think that was possible before, but I could be wrong. A 16 year tailored home loan of 249k which can be paid off in 9-10 yrs by whacking 5% (12,450) each year for no charge, could be reduced further if rates drop. You need that job of course. I consider all this outlay punishment for not buying a house when I sold out at the end of a marriage in 1999 - right at the bottom as it turned out. Good luck with your bottom :o

minimoke
24-11-2008, 03:03 PM
Suddenly that house that was 240k when mackdunk told me to buy is worth less than 200k now...
add on higher locked fixed term interest rates, and laggin floating rates (I will explain soon)...

minimoke, many large banks dropped floating rates .75% last week...Next OCR announcement is 10 days away...another cut early next month...


Still missing the point SC. A home has no value at all – until you either want to sell it or use it as collateral to leverage more money from the bank. The only people loosing at the moment are those that bought high and are having to sell low. We’ve covered this off before – they are selling because they have over extended their credit, borrowed on depreciating capital (the new car / boat), frittered it on overseas holidays (yours being an exception – China ought to have had a significant return on expenditure); bought the holiday home in Queenstown ; that “off-the-plan” Apartment being spruiked off the radio; the rental with a 3% return or they have lost that second income. All risks people could have could have avoided if they hadn’t got caught in the property market hype.

The same kind of idea goes with your shares – you haven’t lost a cent on them until you sell –likewise they aren’t worth anything until you sell. Except try going got the bank today and using a share portfolio as collateral – you’ll have no show now. But with shares you have to decide at what point are you going to quit because shares can end up being absolutely value less – like FTX. Property, no matter had bad a state it is in always has some residual value.
And those damn banks – I’m only going to get a 8 ½ % net return on my cash next week! But my ownership ratio (me:bank) will go up, so that’s not so bad. Can’t do that when you are renting!

duncan macgregor
24-11-2008, 04:02 PM
What has to be considered is your position in the playing field for the individual player, when it comes to property. The long established players who understand the game can afford to sell at the top of the cycle, and bide their time buying at below construction cost.
The new potential players get a limited window of opportunity to even start playing the game. For one of those players to start trying to pick the bottom of the market, then get low interest rates stands the risk of finding higher deposit levels followed by a steep trend in the market. The non players will have so many excuses for not taking the field, that they risk not playing the game at all. The established players understand its a long term industry that you get on board as soon and as safely as you can.
Interest rates can get to 20% if you look back in time thats what you must protect yourself against. Safety is the key word, protect your backside at all costs. So what if the smart people say interest rates will drop you lose out on a few bob but if they go the other way you dont get bankrupted.
Young SHREWDY missed the bus, thinks that there is another one coming with cheaper fares which places him in the high risk category of not playing the game until he wakes up to reality. If anything can be bought at the right price then buy it, the property market has always had real bargains at any stage in the cycle. Macdunk

minimoke
24-11-2008, 04:13 PM
Interest rates can get to 20% if you look back in time thats what you must protect yourself against.
20%!! I remember paying a few pips over 24% - hence I don’t get excited by hanging on for a year to save a percent or two. People worry about losing perceived value in a dropping market – they want to live when you are wondering how you can actually pay for your mortgage!

POSSUM THE CAT
24-11-2008, 05:56 PM
MY First mortgage required over 40% deposit but that demand made sure house prices were reasonable. So as the necessary deposit increases the house price falls or it does not sell

Mick100
24-11-2008, 07:18 PM
shrewd - there's a book (property investments, by Martin Hawes)
You'll learn more from this book (2-3 hrs reading) than reading the property buff rubbish on this thread. There is a right time to buy property and it's not now.
Hawes explains the property cycle which, he says, lasts 6 to 9 yrs from peak to peak so if peak was 2007 then the trough will be in 4 yrs time (in theory) meaning property will likely go sideways or down over the next 4 yrs - pobably go sideways while every thing else goes up in price - that will bring property prices back into line relative to wages and every thing else

Macdunk - you claim success in the markets is all due to timing yet you say it's always the right time to buy property _a contradiction don't you think?

axion
24-11-2008, 07:31 PM
I can't believe what I'm reading on this forum, is someone really saying it's not a loss until the asset is sold?

That is like #1 on the list of newbie sharetrading path to destruction 101.

Duncan: It seems ridiculous to be "protect[ing] your backside at all costs" in regards to interest rates at this point in time, I don't even know why you'd mention them being at 20% at one time.. so what? It's irrelevant. Other than some type of weak fear mongering...

Also how has SC missed the bus? Interest rates are almost definitely going to continue going down, and the economic climate is getting worse and worse (and hence people's ability to afford houses should also decline). I do agree that there are bargains to be had at any point in the cycle and to never write-off buying, but I also think it's just as bad to give the contra-advice the whole time too.

Crypto Crude
25-11-2008, 04:52 AM
many topics...
wow...

mr devine... to your last question... of course....

confusion---> with georges post... dont really know where to start without going overboard with explanation...


next poster minimoke said
Still missing the point SC. A home has no value at all
I read the 2nd line and stopped (seriously)........
every home has value dude......

I then came to the next post... and mackdunks post asked more questions and queries of the newbie than even a buff could answer.......
therefore, I thought bugger that... waste my time....
.......
...
possum the cat touches on a major point....

next---> mick trys to refer me
shrewd - there's a book (property investments, by Martin Hawes)
You'll learn more from this book (2-3 hrs reading) than reading the property buff rubbish on this thread. There is a right time to buy property and it's not now.

thats good quality read for a newbie... but Id say right now that advice is a waste of time mick 100... going off topic and detracting away from everything these newbies threads "first homebuyers" and all that have unravelled,the truth from the big cats.... even though that truth was not mentioned (not even once) by a big cat.... and now we are maybe half way through, and We still wait on the truth.....
We can wait years more for those big cats to fess up...
Who do you want to believe...
I will post the minute I buy, or sentiment changes (and that it will)...

this will take years to unfold (uncharted territory)... I will re-address housing during 2009...
there's no rush unless you are a buff...


axion-I can't believe what I'm reading on this forum, is someone really saying it's not a loss until the asset is sold?

That is like #1 on the list of newbie sharetrading path to destruction 101.

Duncan: It seems ridiculous to be "protect[ing] your backside at all costs" in regards to interest rates at this point in time, I don't even know why you'd mention them being at 20% at one time.. so what? It's irrelevant. Other than some type of weak fear mongering...

Also how has SC missed the bus? Interest rates are almost definitely going to continue going down, and the economic climate is getting worse and worse (and hence people's ability to afford houses should also decline). I do agree that there are bargains to be had at any point in the cycle and to never write-off buying, but I also think it's just as bad to give the contra-advice the whole time too.

huumm... yes..axion sums it all up very very well....(from a near term home entrant is concerned)....
20% Inflation is a time not even worth mentioning...we have explaned it all before.... refer other threads....
there will be no problem for a newbie, or potential newbie to get ready over the next 2 years if they so want a house

... to the buff--> dont even try and make that a barrier for us... 20k, 40k, its all the same in two years if you are serious about this business...

mackdunk is right on so many levels... but mackdunk is wrong on 'new entrant level'... I would have thought the been around the block type would give the best advice... I was wrong...I risked nothingby trusting my own advice regardless of the stock market in this instance...
give it up to me mackdunk...
I risked nothing...
:cool:
.^sc

George
25-11-2008, 05:58 AM
SC
What I meant was that if a homeowner found themselves in trouble
because of the current crisis, that there would be help available so why
wait if you find something you like and the figures stack up.
What interest rate/house price are you waiting for before buying?

BNZ dropped rates below 7% yesterday so we will wait till next week to see what
the reserve bank does and look to fix at a lower rate. Each 1% less means a
saving of $2,500 on our interest each year. If rates go much lower we could be
mortgage free by 2014.
At some point we may also have the opportunity to buy another do-up at a bargain
price with our home as collateral.

minimoke
25-11-2008, 07:47 AM
I can't believe what I'm reading on this forum, is someone really saying it's not a loss until the asset is sold?

That is like #1 on the list of newbie sharetrading path to destruction 101.

Except we aren’t looking at sharetrading. SC originally pondered about buying his first home. This is quite a different proposition from trading shares and buying property investments. Heck property investors struggle with the idea that they are in it for either capital gain or income. So many of them were crowing as their properties went up in value (even though they were making 5% on the deal) yet insisted they were in it for income so as to avoid Capital Gains Tax. Likewise for sharetraders – no doubt there are those out there trading who are in it for the “income” but will have Stop Loss limits that kick in if their investment trips below a certain value which is based on Share Price not yield.

But that is by the: SC and others don’t see the value in Fixed Interest mortgages. They are entitled to their view but the problem with looking at interest rates as they down trend is that the purchaser goes “Great 7% I can afford the interest on that mortgage – and look I’ll save even more when the rates drop more!”. Except at some point the interest rates will reverse – and in the mean time a person’s lifestyle will change to the rate they are paying. Then listen to the moan as their 5% mortgages double to 10%. So paying 20 or 24% interest is not irrelevant – property tends to be a long term investment and high interest rates have happened before and will conceivably happen again.

Some posters have very fixed views on their property purchase – and for as long as they hold such views getting into property is going to be a challenge. I’ve posted an update on where SC is at on the other thread.

Crypto Crude
25-11-2008, 12:12 PM
thanks for clearing that up George...



george-BNZ dropped rates below 7% yesterday so we will wait till next week to see what
the reserve bank does and look to fix at a lower rate

george,
promise me you wont fix at the new lower rate which comes out next thursday... sent me a bottle of wine in 2010 instead...



wait if you find something you like and the figures stack up.
What interest rate/house price are you waiting for before buying?


I will buy at a low, and sell at a high:D.... buy when the buffs are at their lowest sentiment on the threads... just watch mackdunk and minimoke and joe king come around to what ive been saying, and then snap into buying...
(this may take 2 more years for md to admit)... this is the time to buy...

why do I say this---->

the housing market will have to be in pretty bad shape for a buff to admit anything... The buff will gamble with our livelihoods on wild market swings not realising that a swing this way or that would have cost or gained us 50k just like that...bankrupty....
be patient... All will come through...

Of Course 20-24% interest rates are completely irrelevant...
Please ask questions if there is anything you are unsure of....
....
:cool:
.^sc

duncan macgregor
25-11-2008, 02:25 PM
SHREWDY its a pointless debate when someone who has never been in the market thinks they know the lot. You only get a few windows of opportunity in this life, you have just missed one. Your position in life is where we started years ago, learned all the lessons on the road to get here. You start out with the i know best attitude that has now cost you an entry point into the property market when deposit ratioes were at an all time low. You now cant afford the level of deposit required so end of story, your story that is.
When you get to your next window of oppoertunity i hope you have learned enough to take it. Your next window of opportunity will come with a much higher deposit required plus a much higher property price so lets hope you can save enough to have another go at a later date. The very first lesson to take on board is keep your finances at a level of affordability dont gamble on the market doing this or that. That is the one lesson you fail to understand.
The property market has been going for hundreds of years, and will continue on its merry way for hundreds more, study the trends dont talk crap.
When i see a decline in population, or see building and building compliance costs drop then i might agree that the price of property long term will drop. The new homes being built are not keeping pace with the growth. Builders fleeing the country in droves or dont you know that?. It dousnt take half a brain to know what the next trend will be only you will have missed your window of opportunity by being to clever trying to bottom pick the market to be on board. LUV YOU LIKE A BRUDDER MATE. Macdunk

Crypto Crude
25-11-2008, 02:44 PM
mackdunk path to success... bankrupted 50k in debt by now...
shrewd path... 20k and staying afloat...

next year.... mackdunk path to success will be 100k in debt...
shrewd path 40k with house entry....

I dont know it all about housing... I surely know I dont need to panic buy or anything like that... Im not going to bend over backwards to support other views that are wrong....
time will tell who is again right or wrong...
lets see...

Dont make this all about desposits now...
Ive explained that it will be neither here nor there for muy circumstances...


heehehehehe....
have a good day mackdunk...
:cool:
.^sc

minimoke
25-11-2008, 02:53 PM
When i see a decline in population, or see building and building compliance costs drop then i might agree that the price of property long term will drop. The new homes being built are not keeping pace with the growth. Builders fleeing the country in droves or dont you know that?.
And a few other things to look out for: expats returning in greater numbers to NZ need somewhere to live; supply of listings is low; interest rates are dropping, OCR likely to come down, Kiwi saver deposit scheme coming online in the next few years; govt assistance for people into homes which National don’t seem to turn off; NZ$ makes our property look more attractive; lots of cheap apartments for battery hen English Language schools. All add up to more ingredients to a turning and positive property market. Lets see where we are at in another year.

minimoke
25-11-2008, 02:56 PM
bankrupted 50k in debt by now...
shrewd path...
No, we should put this to bed before it becomes the perceived truth. – actually you’d have the same property capital but your flatmates would be now paying more of your mortgage for you. Check out the properties I found you on the other thread!

axion
25-11-2008, 03:12 PM
Except we aren’t looking at sharetrading. SC originally pondered about buying his first home. This is quite a different proposition from trading shares and buying property investments. Heck property investors struggle with the idea that they are in it for either capital gain or income. So many of them were crowing as their properties went up in value (even though they were making 5% on the deal) yet insisted they were in it for income so as to avoid Capital Gains Tax. Likewise for sharetraders – no doubt there are those out there trading who are in it for the “income” but will have Stop Loss limits that kick in if their investment trips below a certain value which is based on Share Price not yield.

But that is by the: SC and others don’t see the value in Fixed Interest mortgages. They are entitled to their view but the problem with looking at interest rates as they down trend is that the purchaser goes “Great 7% I can afford the interest on that mortgage – and look I’ll save even more when the rates drop more!”. Except at some point the interest rates will reverse – and in the mean time a person’s lifestyle will change to the rate they are paying. Then listen to the moan as their 5% mortgages double to 10%. So paying 20 or 24% interest is not irrelevant – property tends to be a long term investment and high interest rates have happened before and will conceivably happen again.

Some posters have very fixed views on their property purchase – and for as long as they hold such views getting into property is going to be a challenge. I’ve posted an update on where SC is at on the other thread.

I can see where you're coming from, and I have been told my view of houses being similar to shares or other assets is quite wrong, I still think they're similar on a fairly crude level--they're both assets, the only difference is one we live in and seem to, imo, have a special type of attachment to it which, for some reason, changes all the rules. I still completely disagree about the it's not a loss until you sell thing. if I pay 300k for a house and now it's worth 200k that's a loss in my book, and I think it's silly to say it's not "until you sell".

I don't think it is that SC, et al don't see the benefit in fixed mortgages, there is most definitely a benefit (and SC isn't foolish so I'm sure he can easily see when there'll be a benefit to it), but at this point in the economic cycle it seems like a poor decision to do it when all indicators are that interest rates are declining.

I was going to say that my post was in context of a new home buyer, I agree with Duncan that fixing now might be a good idea if you're very risk averse to a huge swing (which might occur for some reason), e.g. if you already have a home which is quite highly leveraged and you can afford the interest at the current rate you might try and fix it at a similar rate so that you decrease the risk of default if rates do take a turn around.

Basically it all comes down to risk aversion, and where you are in the market. As I said someone currently in will want to avoid default. SC is more than happy to sit on his hands to try and angle for a better deal, perhaps a newly married couple might want to get a house ASAP and are happy with interest where it is and might purchase and fix their mortgage.

I must say that it is interesting to see the two predominant conflicting view points: new comers who are willing to wait around to get a better deal (lower rates, lower house prices, etc), and the old hands who are saying to get into the property market at any point because, in the long run, it will always go up. I don't think either side is entirely wrong, house prices will eventually go up as Duncan says building costs aren't declining, population is continuing to increase, however conversely incomes are (or most likely will be) decreasing, interest rates are (most likely) declining so basically imo, long term we will see housing go up due to the fundamental costs and population issues which Duncan brings up, however I think short term there is definitely a better spot to enter as time goes on and (short term) conditions are getting worse and worse. And I think it is completely wrong to assume just because SC is putting it off now, that he will continue to put it off for all of infinity, there are clear reasons why he's putting it off now and I assume if those reasons change he'll reevaluate the situation.



NB: I'm not sure what my opinion is worth, I've never owned a home, and I'm at least a couple of years from even thinking about it...


edit - Hmm just reading your post in the other thread, minimoke, very interesting. I'll comment in the thread.

minimoke
25-11-2008, 04:08 PM
I can see where you're coming from, and I have been told my view of houses being similar to shares or other assets is quite wrong, I still think they're similar on a fairly crude level--they're both assets, the only difference is one we live in and seem to, imo, have a special type of attachment to it which, for some reason, changes all the rules.
Shall we agree to disagree, or perhaps come to a compromise. What about “unrealised loss”.

I’m not so sure your view of houses is entirely correct either. Assets are often confused with equity – but we don’t need to get into a discussion on asset classes here. With shares you rely on someone else to create an income for you or to build capital. With a home you don’t get an income (indeed it will cost you) and you have to look after it yourself. The Mrs will buy a house based on the colour of the kitchen and cleanliness of the bathrooms – share buying doesn’t use such arbitrary considerations. A decision to buy a home will be made in 5 minutes – you’ll agonise over your next share purchase (with loads of TA / FA) for ages. If you look like making a loss on shares you can flick off instantly – try to do that with a home. You always need a roof over your head – something a home does but shares can’t do. Set it up right and you can write off some of your expenses against your shares – you can’t do that with a home (unless you have a home based business). You don’t buy shares for the great view, leafy suburb, close to schools or work. And there’s not a heck of a lot you personally do to a share to add value to it. With a home you still get an ownership document – you don’t even get that with shares anymore. You can loose the lot on a share – buts unlikely you’ll loose everything with a home (barring of course poor financial management or poor judgement like being sucked into a 110% mortgage). When you own a home you will be forever motivated to get up and go to work in the morning – I love hiring people with a mortgage (the bigger the better) but with shares you can lie in bed a bit longer. As for the similarities, I’ll leave to you.