Dow

[Valuegrowth]

Marketwinner, that's pretty dire warning about a bear market

Do you believe that?

Bear markets inevitably follow bull markets. Similarly bull markets follow bear markets. Now we have to study are we in a secular bull market or bull market in a secular bear market. I don’t think anybody can predict markets. Still I believe over valued markets are due for bigger correction. It can happen any time and we cannot predict it. .Just like they forget Indian market some market players will avoid both Ukraine and Russia now. I believe some markets players will find opportunity even in risky markets. We need to have global approach when we invest in the future. Modern Intelligent investors like to invest in developed, emerging and frontier markers to minimize their risks. They know when they don’t have bull market in their own country there will be bull market in somewhere in this planet. I also expect at least 10% market correction in both New Zealand and Australian markets. In addition their currencies could go down as result of foreign outflow and due to emerging bull currencies such as USD and Pound.

http://www.rttnews.com/2323756/miners-drag-australian-market-lower.aspx
Miners Drag Australian Market LowerCheers

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.

[Valuegrowth]

I found very interesting following link. Do you think some markets are overvalued now?

http://www.investing.com/analysis/stock-market-overvalued-by-55-213630

Stock Market Overvalued by 55%?

[Valuegrowth]

(http://triblive.com/neighborhoods/yourmonvalley/yourmonvalleymore/6297998-74/stock-interest-market#axzz34yYhvsI1) I found another link

http://triblive.com/neighborhoods/yourmonvalley/yourmonvalleymore/6297998-74/stock-interest-market#axzz34yYhvsI1

Don't take more risk than necessary

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-31/u-s-index-futures-slide-as-whole-foods-kraft-decline.html

Dow Erases 2014 Gain Amid Global Selloff as Exxon Tumbles

[Hoop]

Hmmm...Some TA warning bells going off around the DOW's record top...

Indicators have a habit of crying wolf during the last stage of a bull market cycles thereby making investors believe the indicators are useless and proceed to start ignoring them and the whole discipline in general....It teaches investors bad habits together with complacency of piling $$$ in at the top with a sense that the market will never fall for any length of time..how many times now have we heard lately.. "I don't care if the price is dropping I'm buying now for the long term"

....anyway..... when a true correction (or worse) begins to happen the indicators will always fire warning signals..so as tedious as it is we should always be careful and alert..cry wolf or not.

On the chart is Martin Prings Special K indicator...this indicator helps detect (primary) trend changes..and can sometimes fire early (predictor)....as with the rest of the indicators it too can cry wolf...

The busted Head and Shoulder pattern creates some uncertainty..it can bust back and keep rising to its TA target (17950) or it can fall...If it breaks the short term support and MA50 area (16950) then expect the DOW to fall to the head price 16350 area (Bull Bear line) and yes perhaps breaking the MA200 too

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW23092014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW23092014.png.html)

[Hoop]

Hmmm...Some TA warning bells going off around the DOW's record top...

Indicators have a habit of crying wolf during the last stage of a bull market cycles thereby making investors believe the indicators are useless and proceed to start ignoring them and the whole discipline in general....It teaches investors bad habits together with complacency of piling $$$ in at the top with a sense that the market will never fall for any length of time..how many times now have we heard lately.. "I don't care if the price is dropping I'm buying now for the long term"

....anyway..... when a true correction (or worse) begins to happen the indicators will always fire warning signals..so as tedious as it is we should always be careful and alert..cry wolf or not.

On the chart is Martin Prings Special K indicator...this indicator helps detect (primary) trend changes..and can sometimes fire early (predictor)....as with the rest of the indicators it too can cry wolf...

The busted Head and Shoulder pattern creates some uncertainty..it can bust back and keep rising to its TA target (17950) or it can fall...If it breaks the short term support and MA50 area (16950) then expect the DOW to fall to the head price 16350 area (Bull Bear line) and yes perhaps breaking the MA200 too..............

Update as of the 10th October..
It didn't bust back, instead it failed to regain that short term support and on Thursday the DOW capitulated and Friday it broke the MA200 and on its way as expected to reach the 16350 head price support area

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW10102014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW10102014.png.html)

[baller18]

Man, it's not looking too good is it hoop? sighsss

[Hoop]

Man, it's not looking too good is it hoop? sighsss

In the short and possibly the short/medium term its ugly...and for those who haven't yet suffered a bull market correction of over 10%, I can tell you they do hurt and make you all paranoid...The is why I give out correction warnings on the S&P 500 thread..

Is it the end of theWall St Bull Market Cycle?...No not yet.... it is to early to tell where the market is headed...Looking at the long term chart this recent correcting fall is only a microscopic blip in the grand scheme of things...so to the "buyers and holders" there's no worries yet.

Going on history there has to be a decent Standard Deviation Line break..something less than 15300 within the next week or two..If the correction dropped below 14200 that would be a real worry..

On the positive side Karlos said I mentioned 20000 was possible a couple of years ago...It doesn't look very far away now does it....Xmas 2015 if the DOW stays in its SD channel ( assumes the continuation of the present Bull market cycle )

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOWlongterm10102014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOWlongterm10102014.png.html)

[Valuegrowth]

There are two schools of thoughts on DOW and other indexes. Eg:

http://www1.realclearmarkets.com/2014/12/09/prof_siegel_expect_a_big_stock_market_correction_i n_2015_160941.html

Prof. Siegel: Expect a Big Stock Market Correction in 2015

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102306448# (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102306448).

Dow could hit 21,500 in 2015, strategist says

Most probably we may see strong correction or beginning of bear market in 2015.

DYOR.

[golden city]

hi anyone can tell me..if we can open broker trading account in nz

[stoploss]

hi anyone can tell me..if we can open broker trading account in nz

You might have to be more specific , where exactly are you trying to open one from ? It is possible to open sharebroker accounts in New Zealand.

[Baa_Baa]

The DOW constantly confounds even the most observant. And the NZX closely follows the DOW.

There will be a bust, we all know that is how the markets (economies) work. However when it will happen continues to confound over and over again. When it does happen, it happens way faster than most can or will be able to respond. There is something we can do about it other than watching and trying to time an exit.

Just do a simple thing ... put some stop-losses on your shares and maintain them frequently. One day you'll be in cash watching the capitulation and patting yourself on the back for such foresight, and be well positioned for when the time comes to re-invest.

BAA

[kiora]

The DOW constantly confounds even the most observant. And the NZX closely follows the DOW.

There will be a bust, we all know that is how the markets (economies) work. However when it will happen continues to confound over and over again. When it does happen, it happens way faster than most can or will be able to respond. There is something we can do about it other than watching and trying to time an exit.

Just do a simple thing ... put some stop-losses on your shares and maintain them frequently. One day you'll be in cash watching the capitulation and patting yourself on the back for such foresight, and be well positioned for when the time comes to re-invest.

BAA

Goldman Sachs where right on the button in 2013.Will they be right in 2015 ?
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/goldman-sachs-2015-sp-500-target-2100-2014-11
No reason to think they won't be

[Daytr]

I think very DOW specific we will see corporate earnings hurt in this quarter due to the high dollar & a dump in energy.
Lower energy prices are likely to have a positive impact on retail such as Home Depot & Walmart although consumer confidence has been on the wane.
Obviously the likes Exxon & Chevron will drag down the index considerably.

Most of the DOW companies earn quite a bit offshore & this is where a high dollar hurts.

By the way I have just shorted. ;-)

[kiora]

Maybe interest rates will go up sooner than later with US unemployment dropping ?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11413967

[Daytr]

DOW bounces becoming shorter & shorter, forming lower highs.
I have been batting the DOW back & forth quite successfully for most of the year, picking it up around 17.5k and selling 18.1-2k area & shorting.
Looks like we may see a test of the lows. Apple now being part of the index has been hurting it in recent days as expectations of expanding growth are being reigned in. In percentage terms their growth is likely to come back but in dollar terms its still expanding quickly. Higher USD weighing on multi nationals, soon to be higher interest rates (not such a problem imo).
So I'm a little torn as I back the likes of Apple to come good, however the index itself looks vulnerable.
Perhaps lower first & that creates an opportunity?
Others thoughts?

[Hoop]

DOW bounces becoming shorter & shorter, forming lower highs............. however the index itself looks vulnerable.
Perhaps lower first & that creates an opportunity?
Others thoughts?

I'm going to make an opinionated guess (risk of egg on face) and say .....The 6 year old DOW Bull is dead... it died 5 months ago
Note: ..Not yet confirmed by DOW Theory(Confirmed by DOW transport (considered unreliable these days) but not yet by the S&P500)

I personally think the DOW has been in Stage 1 of a Cyclic Bear Market Cycle for 5 months in the shape of a longer term trading range pattern... Many of my personal Cycle Reversal Indicating "Ducks" have been waddling around in an increasingly lengthening row with other ducks joining the line every now and again since early 2014... Usually Stage 1 of the Bear Cycle is very hard to determine and leading indicators can get slowed down or arrested once formed (e.g FED manipulation) ...that's my excuse if I'm wrong..:)

Something else to remember with Cycle Theory ...Cycles always go forward, never backwards..they are distance traveled events and not time dependent...therefore a cycle can be slowed or stopped but can not go in reverse..Like death and taxes a bear cycle after a bull cycle is inevitable.

In DOW Theory Stage 1 is the Distribution Phase
This phase can be variable in time...and can take various pattern shapes..Since 1999 the DOW has seen two different types of Stage One Bear Cycles
1... a trading range pattern with one or 2 warning dips that quickly recover due to dip buying. This pattern lasted for many months (8 months in 2000) with only a hint from the straddled MA200 of a slightly bent downward trend.
2...The 2007 stage 1 lasted for only 9 weeks with a double top bearish pattern and consisted of a sharper peak type formation with larger volatility. The Media and the Public think of a bear market cycle as dramatic so they assume every bear cycle will have this type of Stage 1. In practice it is the rarer of the two types mentioned.

Usually a stage 1 bear is the 1 type mentioned above and therefore goes unnoticed by most investors as they are still optimistic about the future outlook of their country's economy..and the fundamentally rosy looking forward earning projections (http://www.investopedia.com/university/dowtheory/dowtheory3.asp)

Stage 1 becomes noticeable after it ends and the more destructive Stage 2 (10-20+%) dips with sucker rally recoveries become the "norm"...even then there will be investors + Gurus still in denial..This is the stage that TAers see their sell signals appear and sell long and start buying short or play the sucker rally game.

The last stage (3) is the characteristic doom and gloom capitulation phase that most people think of when talking Bear Market Cycles..

[Joshuatree]

Thanks for taking the egg risk there Hoop, appreciate it. What have you done to prepare for it and if stage 2 is say 10-20% drop , how big is stage 3 roughly?

[Daytr]

You maybe right Hoop, I said something similar quite a while ago with the strong USD going to hurt earnings & that's what we are now starting to see.
I don't see a massive collapse though, but maybe a revisit of 17,000 where its bounced of a few times a while back.

[Hoop]

Thanks for taking the egg risk there Hoop, appreciate it. What have you done to prepare for it and if stage 2 is say 10-20% drop , how big is stage 3 roughly?

The ol saying.. when America catches a cold we all suffer. New York Stock Exchange is the biggest money machine (Mkt Cap) in the world (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_exchanges)..Three times bigger than the NASDAQ in second place ..followed closely by the London Stock Market in 3rd place..China's Shanghai is 20% the size of NYSE in 5th place...Japan is just in front of China in 4th place ...so its common sense really to expect a global ripple effect when American exchanges "tank". As a mostly NZ and sometime OZ investor I like to know the mental state of the Elephant I'm in the room with..
That's why I keep a close eye on the NYSE.. also its fun and very educational to boot...as there is a wealth of historic data most of it freely available, not like the NZX which operates as a secret society then bitches and groans that the NZ public don't invest enough into NZ's economy via NZX.

What have you done to prepare for it.. Note: Investors use their own tailor-made methodologies that best suit their mental dispositions. This is my investment methodology modeled somewhat on Phaedrus (old ST member) TA methodology... During times of caution I tighten somewhat on my TA discipline. During my get out warnings my TA discipline says "Strict abidance" all TA sell signals must be actioned upon no matter how good the shares may seem to be....This is good practice as TA takes away bad behavioural habits such as emotion (falling in love with a stock), the destructive "state of denial", procrastination and misaligned optimism...
TA Cry wolf stuff is easy fixed..you just buy back in when TA emits buy signals once again for your stock.
...if stage 2 is say 10-20% drop , how big is stage 3 roughly? Depends...Elliott wave theorists say the c wave(stage 3) is the biggest down wave..
Bear cycles are always >-20% otherwise they are called bull market corrections. There have been mild bear markets which some have called severe bull market corrections...On the other side of the coin there were differing opinions whether the 2011 NYSE severe bull market correction should've been called a short sharp but mild bear market cycle. That correction or cycle didn't have a big c wave it was arrested...just goes to show there ain't no such thing as a perfect world

[Hoop]

You maybe right Hoop, I said something similar quite a while ago with the strong USD going to hurt earnings & that's what we are now starting to see.
I don't see a massive collapse though, but maybe a revisit of 17,000 where its bounced of a few times a while back.
Yeah...who knows ..we are all conditioned by the media to expect big collapses when the bear roams around Wall St...We all conditioned to think up or down but it could be the 3rd scenario.. a few years of the market going nowhere or crabbing sideways or slightly downward and boring the hell out of everybody in the process...

[blackcap]

Yeah...who knows ..we are all conditioned by the media to expect big collapses when the bear roams around Wall St...We all conditioned to think up or down but it could be the 3rd scenario.. a few years of the market going nowhere or crabbing sideways or slightly downward and boring the hell out of everybody in the process...

That is exactly what I see happening too. The market crabbing sideways for a few years to come ranging between 16k and 19k and generally not doing a hell of a lot. But in essence that is a bear market as you are still losing money (opportunity cost and all).

[Joshuatree]

Thanks Hoop. Im feeling/thinking the same crabwse dance but i am fatigued a little after years of correction talk noise and prob blasé as well right now.Time to straighten up and "fly right' cheers JT

[Hoop]

Thanks Hoop. Im feeling/thinking the same crabwse dance but i am fatigued a little after years of correction talk noise and prob blasé as well right now.Time to straighten up and "fly right' cheers JT

I know the feeling...It's been a very unusual feeling for this bull market cycle... I've never ever been totally confident..always had a feeling at the back of my mind that the next day I could awake to see a -5% daily dip....I think we all know that this Wall St Bull has been drip FED .. (pun :p sorry)

I've heard many say it has been a hated bull...Sort of makes you wonder what we all going to feel with the next bear

[Daytr]

Now that's a pretty good bounce. Commodities bounced strongly as well, China stocks soared.
Interesting. Shorting opportunities?

[Hoop]

Now that's a pretty good bounce. Commodities bounced strongly as well, China stocks soared.
Interesting. Shorting opportunities?

Hmmmm...maybe...a nice bounce up off the hammer today...shorting opportunities?.. there's resistance at 17600 but it looks weak as it been broken twice in the last 5 weeks.... 17800 catches my eye ..lots of resistance noise here with the MA's adding to the mix.

My suspicions are that the DOW could be a Bear...so the bear confirmation would be for it to fail to go higher than ~18100 in this phase

[Daytr]

Yeah I was looking for 17,750ish, but she dropped pretty much from the close last night b& now back below 17,500.
Patience I think.
Apple is such a big player in this.
If they produce a better than expected result then its probably game on.

[stoploss]

Yeah I was looking for 17,750ish, but she dropped pretty much from the close last night b& now back below 17,500.
Patience I think.
Apple is such a big player in this.
If they produce a better than expected result then its probably game on.

Didn't they report 21 July ?

[Hoop]

Didn't they report 21 July ?
Yep ..Market wasn't overly impressed either...fell down about 15% before recovering...still about 11% down...Part of the reason why the DOW looks less healthy than S&P500


Yeah I was looking for 17,750ish, but she dropped pretty much from the close last night b& now back below 17,500.
Patience I think.
Apple is such a big player in this.
If they produce a better than expected result then its probably game on.
Pre market looking sad...perhaps you might be right about that 17600 mark

Interesting article from Brett Arends from MarketWatch where he states...What if the bull market in stocks just ended — and nobody noticed? (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/has-the-bear-market-in-stocks-already-begun-2015-08-11?dist=beforebell)
I noticed :D

[Daytr]

Sorry I meant through the year. Their dollar revenue growth I thought was impressive, but in percentage terms it didn't meet market expectations.
I am always amased that the market doesn't factor in basic math, as numbers get bigger its likely percentage growth will fall.
I used to argue that with China's growth. The fact is the numbers are still much, much bigger, but in percentage terms it looks worse.
Speaking of China, the wobbles they have recently had I think played more into the pull back in Apple than anything else.

[noodles]

Yep ..Market wasn't overly impressed either...fell down about 15% before recovering...still about 11% down...Part of the reason why the DOW looks less healthy than S&P500


Pre market looking sad...perhaps you might be right about that 17600 mark

Interesting article from Brett Arends from MarketWatch where he states...What if the bull market in stocks just ended — and nobody noticed? (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/has-the-bear-market-in-stocks-already-begun-2015-08-11?dist=beforebell)
I noticed :D
Hoop, you are not the only one. My twitter feed is all about "death cross" on the DOW. Can I short yet?

[Hoop]

Hoop, you are not the only one. My twitter feed is all about "death cross" on the DOW. Can I short yet?

Beware of the death cross..really!!:)...It happened to the DOW this morning NZtime...Personally, I think the media hypes this thing up.... the name is more terrifying than it's action..good for selling business newspapers..eh..

I personally don't get too excited over a Death Cross..Its just 2 MA's crossing over on a chart and using the MA200 as one MA line crossover is a lagging indicator line so laggy its close to being useless..The death cross tells us 2 scenarios ..1.. that the downtrend has been operating for a good length of time...or 2... a plateaued market which is going nowhere has been operating for even a longer period of time. Honestly we can see these scenarios by just looking at the chart..the death cross just tells us what we already know...Don't get me wrong, MA crossovers can be reasonably useful indicators when set at lower more sensitive levels such as MA20/MA50 or better still EMA20/EMA50..Set at these levels a crossover can get you "out" reasonably earlier on without too much capital loss..although the whipsaw risk is higher....A few investors have dabbled with MA crossovers..I think Trackers was one who had a good indicator can't remember his MA period crossovers.

As with all indicators best use more than 1.. say 5 so they can confirm one another..

Problems with Death Crosses...
1..The lagging effect being rather long, a DC could occur at the bottom of a severe Bull market Correction...so instead of buying in you are selling out realising an unnecessary loss..This happened on the DOW in August 2011 when the DC occurred right at at the bottom of a severe ~18% bull market correction
2..In corrective markets (volatile) DC can be associated with GC (golden crosses) when the MA50/MA200 swing and cross the other way..
3..DC and GC operate in tops and bottoms of cycles but can also been seen during major corrections or lengthy trading patterns during mid-cycle.
4..DC can indicate a cyclic reversal but it should not be your indicator of choice. use it with others as a late confirmation indicator.

The reversion to a Bear cycle will ALWAYS at some later stage be meet with a DC occurrence..therefore my possible "egg on face" Bear Market cycle opinion is still on course and evolving (confirming).

Shorting?? ..its up to you mate...brush up on your S&R lines, stols etc and go for it..they say it can be fun...especially during bear markets

[Hoop]

Written 7th August 2015 Post #769
I'm going to make an opinionated guess (risk of egg on face) and say .....The 6 year old DOW Bull is dead... it died 5 months ago
Note: ..Not yet confirmed by DOW Theory(Confirmed by DOW transport (considered unreliable these days) but not yet by the S&P500)......

Mark Hulbert reckons under old Dow theory it fired a sell signal on 20st August (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6114-Dow/page52).....(that's one more confirmation for me:))...........Jack Schannep says the updated Version didn't fire on Thursday (http://thedowtheory.com/) ......... Schanneps updated Dow Theory specifics (http://thedowtheory.com/indicators/dow-theory-for-the-21st-century/)

[Bobcat.]

I've noticed that whereas normally with a plunge in Equity markets the USD rises as money rushes to hard currency, that isn't happening this time. The USD has fallen against most other currencies (the AUD is one of the few exceptions dur to its exposure to commodities that are of course also falling). That tells me that the USD is losing its reserve currency status and is not longer seen to be the safe haven it once was. The EUR and CHF are more so at the moment. Even the NZD is doing comparatively well.

Trading accordingly.

[Baa_Baa]

The DOW did breakdown, big time, below its 200EMA (Monthly log scale) and the rising support trend line, and the linear regression channel (and the month isn't over). Uncannily again like the SP5, the DOW's 38.2% fib retrace falls perfectly on the Sep/Oct 2007 Highs around 14000. That's still a 2500 drop from here. You can ignore this if you want to, but why would you? Have a contingency plan in place, at least!

7545

[skid]

Of course its a bit early(over 24hrs till market opens but US futures are looking scary atm.

[noodles]

Us futures have not opened yet.

[noodles]

While US futures have not opened, IG Markets provides Sunday trading on the DOW.

Currently DOW is UP 60. So there has been no panic over the weekend.
http://www.ig.com/au/ig-indices/sunday-wall-street (http://www.ig.com/au/welcome-page)

[noodles]

Dow futures have now opened. 100 points lower
http://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/

[Daytr]

Getting whomped (technical term) right now down over 300 points.
Chinese market was down over 10% at one stage, currently down around 8%.
Things are looking pretty ugly all of a sudden.
Gone long gold, hopefully my timing is ok, but volatility is key. I almost bought the VIX early last week ! DOH!

[Hoop]

All this drama will test the theories (including Mine)
Another Bear market cycle confirmation for me comes from the candle stick discipline...
Strictly speaking the last candlestick which has a long tail (panic selling at opening) may disallow the sequence to be called 3 black crows..

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f1/Three_Black_Crows.svg/250px-Three_Black_Crows.svg.png (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Three_Black_Crows.svg)






Three black crows is a term used by stock market analysts to describe a market downturn. It appears on a candlestick chart (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candlestick_chart) in the financial markets (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_market). It unfolds across three trading sessions, and consists of three long candlesticks that trend downward like a staircase. Each candle should open below the previous day's open, ideally in the middle price range of that previous day. Each candlestick should also close progressively downward to establish a new near-term low. The pattern indicates a strong price reversal from a bull market (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bull_market) to a bear market (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bear_market).[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Black_Crows#cite_note-1)
The three black crows help to confirm that a bull market has ended and market sentiment (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_sentiment) has turned negative. In Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, technical analyst Steve Nison says "The three black crows would likely be useful for longer-term traders."[2]

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Black_Crows#cite_note-Nison-2)

Bulkowski says 3 identical crows..the longer the tail on the third crow the more reliable the reversal

A dead cat bounce waiting to happen??????

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW%2025082015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW%2025082015.png.html)

[BIRMANBOY]

Anecdotally, I have it on dubious authority that the "Three Black Crows" when followed by the "dead cat bounce" is renamed to "Three Blind Mice". Such a cool looking chart however and I'm feeling that the cat may be faking it..looking for a reversal. The crows, cat and mice will all be looking for fresh bargain priced meat.:p

[Valuegrowth]

DOW should rebound strongly sooner than later.Current situation has created another great opportunity. NASDAQ will be another place to watch.

[Hoop]

DOW should rebound strongly sooner than later.Current situation has created another great opportunity. NASDAQ will be another place to watch.

Anecdotally, I have it on dubious authority that the "Three Black Crows" when followed by the "dead cat bounce" is renamed to "Three Blind Mice". Such a cool looking chart however and I'm feeling that the cat may be faking it..looking for a reversal. The crows, cat and mice will all be looking for fresh bargain priced meat.:p

Yep..reversal..Looks like bargain meat has been sold or bought....Tomorrows meat maybe 4% dearer...Mr Market has gone totally mental

[stoploss]

Yep..reversal..Looks like bargain meat has been sold or bought....Tomorrows meat maybe 4% dearer...Mr Market has gone totally mental

China Cut interest rates again ...market rallying ...mmmm think the rate cut probably points to bigger problems , time will tell .

[Joshuatree]

Instincts told me to sell more stocks into the rally yest (especially in aus). Dow falls away 200 points on the close just now.

[Hoop]

Yep..reversal..Looks like bargain meat has been sold or bought....Tomorrows meat maybe 4% dearer...Mr Market has gone totally mental

Instincts told me to sell more stocks into the rally yest (especially in aus). Dow falls away 200 points on the close just now.
The market is speeding fast ...eh ..dead cat bounce followed by another smaller black crow with a long tail flying in to join his mates on the perch...I guess when the VIX touches 53 as it did two days ago you would have to assume huge volatility will occur in days to come...so I suppose we have to expect Mr Market to have more mental moments...

VIX closed at 38 ...

[Absolute144]

If you were watching the US indices at close, on Monday they fell 1% in the last 2 trading minutes. This time it fell in the last hour. Selling into close is usually the professionals getting out (well, whatever they hadnt already managed to offload at higher prices). Buying on open is the retail muppets.

One of the reasons all the Wall St banks have put out client notices telling everyone to buy the dip, is so they can offload their prop trading positions to the muppets. They desperately need retail to stand in the market on the buy side. Ditto the hedge funds. Just wait until they have finished selling, and the retail investors wake up to what they have done, panic, and then offload their holdings. That my friends, is when the bottom will be in :D


Then America creates more debt currency to prop up the banks and other institutions which did get caught out, lots of cheap credit goes floating around, golden handshakes, performance bonuses paid out, used to snap up cheap overseas interests , oh I dont, know, like New Zealand dairy farms, orchards or other strategic listed assests while New Zealand's dollar trades somewhere between 68 - 50 to the USD. And that is how we all get played.

[Joshuatree]

20 min to go and DOW holding 500 points up at pit.

Later .Now 620 points and no sign of mass sells building

[winner69]

Janet was never going tallow a disaster to happen this year. They told her to make sure of hat.

So today she got Mr Dudley to signal no cuts ....well played Janet, you doing well

[Daytr]

Forever amen! Has this trouncing really had anything to do with the possibility of perhaps a 0.25% rise in rates?
Sure the USD strength has played quite a major role, but that was probably more triggered by events in Europe such as their massive QE program than the US maybe, one day in the never never raising rates.

Looks to me like a good sell zone on the DOW here. Just back to where the last major correction was in October.
Unless I see oil particularly WTI have a sustainable bounce then the worst is still yet to come in my view.
I fully expect to see a debt crisis triggered by the loans & exposure to the North American shale oil production.
The WTI forward curve is still giving them about $7 i.e. $45 on the 12 month, but do you lock that in?
Probably still not high enough to make money.

[Hoop]

OK...two things first
1.....TA (charts) can not predict the future!!!!.....Charts can observe historic trading Group behaviour (patterns /events), analyze various past outcomes to determine a probability of a future outcome.
2.....Below I write and show a chart outlining a dead cat event..This dead cat event has not happened yet and may not.

We have witnessed the sudden drop....so what now??

There are various outcomes which us as investors of any discipline should do now...one is to take a day to day approach, using what knowledge/experience we have to make a decision.
Me being bias towards one form of TA (charting discipline)..this is my personal view below..

Once the buy signals returned at opening on the 25th.. an opposite to panic set in, the frenzy buying is an animal herd behaviour ...its irrational behaviour so the tool I use for that is Fibonacci retracement ..the first major behavioural resistance (excluding the 16%) is the 38.2% mark...so 16270 area is the first target (hurdle) ..surprisingly from the 25th August opening it rallied quickly to reach this 16270 area, as the day went on and nothing more happened the herd got anxious and stampeded again to a new closing day low...What was witnessed was a dead cat event that lasted less than a day..unusual..
The next day (26th today) we witnessed a more traditional reversal (bounce?)..This reversal is still in play.....

so what happens tomorrow and onwards?

We Chartists can look back to see what has happened in past similar scenarios and form some sort of probability of how this present scenario will be played out...
As we can see several patterns and events evolving from now..it is best to take a day by day view and from the results of each day we can start ticking off what patterns and events that won't happen.
Events are short term behavioural structures ...Patterns are longer term behavioural structures...So the first focus is on event and if that possible forming event fails then we look towards the next more complex possible event and if there isn't one then we start to look at various pattern formations that are forming and so on...

Even though there can be smaller patterns and events occurring within a larger pattern, it is some times wrong to assume that a spectacular happening is the beginning of a pattern/event... The event commencement could an ongoing outcome of a bigger pattern still forming..could be that very long term doming head pattern has just formed on an ongoing H&S pattern formation???..if it is then a quick rise back to the 17100 area and more meandering around this area for a few months before it tails of down again...but forming patterns often don't reach total formation so we can only observe its formation as we can't be sure of the outcome.....anyway...I'm digressing

Back to the "now" and focus on the first possible formation which is the dead cat bounce event (DCB)....When to buy when to sell?...If there is a possiblility that a DCB can be formed then we (chartists) should take the bearish view of this rally as a precaution...If we got caught holding shares from the recent fall then we should watch for signposts whether to hold or sell...The chart below shows the signposts by the road ..each one could be a confirmation or a failure for the forming DCB... a failure to rise above any on of the points marked on the chart adds confirmation that a DCB is still forming at it is a "Sell Get Out at once" warning

DCB Failure: ..All of us see a diagram of a DCB rallying up a third (38.2% Fib) after the drop then reverts and falls below the previous low.....but DCB event formations can vary from the more common textbook "bungee jump rebound" type..Market physics can show a bounce reaching near its 100% (86% Fib) so a DCB bounce can not be ruled straight away when it jumps the first hurdle.

More info on a DCB here (http://thepatternsite.com/dcb.html#DCB1)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW%2026082015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW%2026082015.png.html)

[amalgam]

Hey thanks Hoop for spending the time writing such a superb explanation..much appreciate your posts

[Baa_Baa]

Hey thanks Hoop for spending the time writing such a superb explanation..much appreciate your posts

Ditto Hoop, educational and informative.

DOW / SP futures slightly up at time of posting, not looking too confident at this stage. Shanghai opens up and currently drifting lower through the day.

[kiora]

Thanks Hoop.Food for thought

[Valuegrowth]

Janet was never going tallow a disaster to happen this year. They told her to make sure of hat.

So today she got Mr Dudley to signal no cuts ....well played Janet, you doing well

Yes Janet is very smart lady. She does her job calmly without getting stress. I am confident she will do a better job. Media has given too much attention to Chinese stock market. It created panic situation globally. It is time to separate China from other markets and identity attractive markets including attractive frontier markets globally. Despite market carnage there, China has some growth sectors such as food and beverages, automotive sector,consumer and retail sector, culture and sport sector and healthcare sector etc.

Current situation has created opportunities in the USA as well. Falling commodity prices are positive news for both American industries and consumers. Falling Chinese currency is also positive news for American retailers and other companies which source their requirement from China. They will save more money and will spend more. Bull markets will not end easily. In every situation there are opportunities for intelligent investors. Certain industries will benefit more from the current carnage in markets.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8938c628-2b10-11e5-8613-e7aedbb7bdb7.html#axzz3k03ystwn

Upbeat Yellen puts faith in strong US recovery

[Hoop]

Fibonacci Retracement at its spooky textbook best....
A hanging man on Friday....a bearish candlestick giving a warning...
The dead cat bounce event is still in play..

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW%2029082015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW%2029082015.png.html)

[macduffy]

Morgan Stanley call "the Bottom" on international equities.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11837853/morgan-stanley-capitulation-MSCI-Europe-equities-China-bank-stocks-1998-bonds.html

[macduffy]

Duplicate post.

:(

[Hoop]

Morgan Stanley call "the Bottom" on international equities.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11837853/morgan-stanley-capitulation-MSCI-Europe-equities-China-bank-stocks-1998-bonds.html

I'll join a couple of others on ST that view these headline stuff about Investment house newsletters with some cynicism...
Love the quote..."Graham Secker, the bank’s chief European equity strategist, said the sell-off over recent weeks is largely driven by emotion and has little to do with the underlying outlook for the world economy."
Really Graham?...Looking at the top economies in the world (re GDP PPP) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29) 6th Russia and 7th Brazil are both in recession...15th Canada has just recently entered officially into recession..
1st China is a big question mark and 3rd India all eyes here too.

All the media hype on Greece counts to nought as it is 51st on the economy list and an insignificant minnow really in the grand global scheme of things...It's questionable what influence it has on the biggest non country economy area of the world..the EU which is only just bigger than China and USA

As a comparison NZ is 69th ... China and USA are both individually x120 larger than NZ

[Hoop]

Fibonacci Retracement at its spooky textbook best....
A hanging man on Friday....a bearish candlestick giving a warning...
The dead cat bounce event is still in play..

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW%2029082015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW%2029082015.png.html)

Today the DOW rose to 16493 +391 +2.43% its second best day for 2015
The dead cat event is still in play...
The DCB hesitated at the 61.8% Fib hurdle which could mean there is a good chance that is the DCB top area...
The possible DCB event pattern being formed says the Investors who are buying in now (influenced by rosy media reports) are playing against the odds.
The average period for a DCB event to play out ranges from 5 to 25 days..
The updated chart below has today's candle manually drawn in
More info on a DCB here

(http://thepatternsite.com/dcb.html#DCB1)http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW%2008092015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW%2008092015.png.html)

[Daytr]

I shorted this morning around the 16,485 area.
Looks like a pretty good level.
Chinese market will be interesting to watch today after a spectacular rally yesterday.

[Hoop]

Hi Hoop,

Just a quick question on your DOW chart ... why have you used the dates that you have for the Fibs ... I have the start 18 Aug - end 24 August

Thanks
BAA

Hmmm..how on earth did that happen?...You are so right Baa..thanks for that
Updated with the correct FIB settings but without todays candlestick
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW%2008092015%20a.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW%2008092015%20a.png.html)

[Bobcat.]

S&P500 is also showing resistance at 1974 which will need to be broken before the Bears amongst us get nervous. Too much has been made of China's improved Trade Balance IMO. If you break it down, both Exports and Imports have dropped - hardly the sign of a rebounding economy:

Exports down 5.5%
Imports down 13.8%

http://www.gcitrading.com/forex-economic-calendar

Accordingly, I think we're seeing too much optimism. The AUD and NZD are up more than a cent over the past 24hrs (and that's with an expected drop in our OCR tomorrow!). I've just now gone long on BBOZ.asx expecting a correction to this correction later tonight.

[Valuegrowth]

We should see year end rally for DOW.

[Baa_Baa]

We should see year end rally for DOW.

Good timing for a bear trap, with the likes of GS ramping into year end. And then the capitulation. I still don't share the optimism, preferring caution to see key resistances broken before calling the end to the current downturn.

[Bobcat.]

Nikkei is up a whopping 7.7%. Largest daily gain for many years.

[Daytr]

Resistance well & truly tested, but the run ultimately failed & markets thumped from their intra day highs.
See US job vacancies jumped half a million! Seems an incredible number.

[Bjauck]

... And now that its been safely chained back up to the Eurozone, we can forget about it (at least until it, or another country, decide to try to escape again) Weren't the Greeks keen to stay within the Euro? I thought they wanted a currency propped up by German rectitude so that little Greece could continue on their profligate ways. It was the Germans and some others who were on the point of jettisoning Greece from the Euro.

[Hoop]

The DOW going up again today are making investors more optimistic...however the chart is showing a waiting game with high risk

As the chart can have patterns within patterns so too can events having events within them
The updated chart below shows a nearly played out pennant event which could be (may not) be within a dead cat bounce event.
In other words the dead cat bounce formation is still in play...

Time heals and as time goes on the chances of recovery for the technically broken DOW improve....Chances of a dead cat bounce failure at return to a new high 25%...chances of a pennant breakout upwards is 40%...Note :...The pennant breakout upwards does not indicate the failure of the DCB event formation..The DCB formation will still be in play.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW%2015092015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW%2015092015.png.html)

[kiora]

The DOW going up again today are making investors more optimistic...however the chart is showing a waiting game with high risk

As the chart can have patterns within patterns so too can events having events within them
The updated chart below shows a nearly played out pennant event which could be (may not) be within a dead cat bounce event.
In other words the dead cat bounce formation is still in play...

Time heals and as time goes on the chances of recovery for the technically broken DOW improve....Chances of a dead cat bounce failure at return to a new high 25%...chances of a pennant breakout upwards is 40%...Note :...The pennant breakout upwards does not indicate the failure of the DCB event formation..The DCB formation will still be in play.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW%2015092015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW%2015092015.png.html)

Thanks Hoop
So is it more likely to break upwards from the triangle given the higher lows ?

[Hoop]

Thanks Hoop
So is it more likely to break upwards from the triangle given the higher lows ?

I think shape (investor behaviour) does factor in..With the ascending triangle shaped pennant it would mean the investors are more bullish than say a descending triangle shape where the investors would be cautious and less optimistic...But remember these are Pennants and are seen as a pause event in a continuing trend (downwards)....so chances of break down is higher

There's been media articles saying there was symmetrical triangle formed....which would indicate a upward breakout occurred this morning (NZtime)...strictly speaking though it is a still a pennant event with a symmetrical shape

[frostyboy]

I think shape (investor behaviour) does factor in..With the ascending triangle shaped pennant it would mean the investors are more bullish than say a descending triangle shape where the investors would be cautious and less optimistic...But remember these are Pennants and are seen as a pause event in a continuing trend (downwards)....so chances of break down is higher

There's been media articles saying there was symmetrical triangle formed....which would indicate a upward breakout occurred this morning (NZtime)...strictly speaking though it is a still a pennant event with a symmetrical shape


Some info about hoops shape
The resistance at the top of the pennant has been hit many times - bullish
The preceding trend of the pennant was down - bearish (some info about this part is below)

http://www.chartpatterns.com/images/hgbear~1.gif
"Bear" pennant in the beginning of a downtrend. After a dramatic two day plunge, the market has a short lived consolidation. The rout continues and the market collapses. You can see activity dry up in the pennant. The breakout though, was made on extremely heavy volume.


http://www.tothetick.com/bear-ascending-triangle
http://www.chartpatterns.com/flagandpennantcharts.htm

[kiora]

Thanks Hoop & Frostboy

[Hoop]

Thanks Frostyboy..nice example..

Just an addition to this DCB pennant scenario....We are working with historic data to gain probabilties of a happening...When we observe an event within an event we have to be careful, as it is wrong to assume that an against the odds break upwards of the secondary all ready formed event (pennant) would indicate that the primary event still forming (DCB) has failed...
Most investor's perception of a DCB is a long drop small bounce (physically..dead cats don't bounce well) and then a lower steep drop...In reality but rarely a DCB can spring back to 100% (start of the Steep drop event) before declining again and still be called a DCB event.. This is where it's important to define whether the DOW has done a cyclic reversal into a bear market cycle or not...Picking when a cyclic Bull dies is near impossible at the time and it is only with hindsight that a cyclic reversal has occurred and even then it's still a guess..It's not until the first capitulation wave occurs followed by a failure to form a new record high do some investors start to realise....40 days ago ..well before this recent drop I made a guess that the DOW bull died back in March 2015. (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6114-Dow/page52)Now I'm still open minded about this cyclic reversal thing as we have seen the wave down but we have to wait for bear cycle confirmation ..that of a lower high before the next wave down.....Seeing a DCB event in play at the moment is an important piece of the Bear Cycle puzzle but it's not confirmational until it's form is completed or (if months pass) we see the DCB event formation fail but morphed into another confirmational longer term bearish pattern.. This is what makes charting so exciting to me as with each twist and turn a new scenario can develop .....perhaps a white swan event may occur and push the DOW back into forming new record highs... who knows for certain... eh?.......but playing the odds at the moment the money has to be on the DOW revisiting the 15650 area


(http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6114-Dow/page52)

[frostyboy]

Thanks for your thoughts hoop

If this pennant broke upwards I Would only be bullish to the S&P500 2030-2060 level as there is three quarters of a year of resistance. There is also money to be made trading within the trend lines of the pennant.

http://i.ytimg.com/vi/K13WIXJK9tc/0.jpg

Yep who knows for certain, the goal is making money

[Hoop]

Thanks for your thoughts hoop

If this pennant broke upwards I Would only be bullish to the S&P500 2030-2060 level as there is three quarters of a year of resistance. There is also money to be made trading within the trend lines of the pennant. ......

......Yep who knows for certain, the goal is making money

Exactly:D.......

[peat]

Posting Nasdaq in the Dow thread tsk tsk.

7610

[kiora]

Posting Nasdaq in the Dow thread tsk tsk.

7610

Is that a pennant breaking upwards?

[Baa_Baa]

DOW closes below the short term rising support trend line of the pennant formation, a break down.

[Valuegrowth]

Still we can expect some volatility in markets. However we should see strong year end rally in most markets including DOW.

[peat]

Is that a pennant breaking upwards?
sorry I didn't explain what I was thinking ...I thought was breaking downwards as reinforced by the long spike up on that single candle and then a turn down
7614

[kiora]

sorry I didn't explain what I was thinking ...I thought was breaking downwards as reinforced by the long spike up on that single candle and then a turn down
7614

Thanks Peat .That's clearer

[Hoop]

Hmmm..that pennant shape has gone more bearish as the days pass...was an ascending triangle but morphing into a rising wedge type shape..and its hard to tell as its in the margin of error but even with the rise today I think its broken out downwards........If it has broken, things could get ugly very soon

The DCB event pattern is still playing out

[Hoop]

Hmmm..that pennant shape has gone more bearish as the days pass...was an ascending triangle but morphing into a rising wedge type shape..and its hard to tell as its in the margin of error but even with the rise today I think its broken out downwards........If it has broken, things could get ugly very soon

The DCB event pattern is still playing out

Hmmm...very soon...may be when Wall st opens today.....DOW futures -1.4% atm

[Baa_Baa]

The break-down from the pennant formation has produced a Flag formation from which on current futures sentiment represents buying opportunity. I'm not so sure about that except for the very short term, one has to consider the medium to longer term, which is clearly down. Expect the lows to be tested in the not too distant future.

7626

jmo dyodd as always
BAA

[Hoop]

The dead cat bounce event pattern is progressing now on the NASDQ and S&P500. The DOW is lagging somewhat but the rising wedge within the DCB event has been broken on all 3 indexes indicating another wave downwards towards a target of 15000 for the DOW and another confirmation that a phase 1 Bear market cycle could be operating..More evidence adds to the chances of seeing an official bear market cycle status being called ~14600 ...and become a member or of the Bear Club

Singapore is the newest member to join the Bear Club..A Club with a increasing membership

[Baa_Baa]

Update 11.10 Strong performance continued up to the 100EMA, could push up to the convergence of overhead resistance around 17300 where the overhead trend lines and the 200EMA are lurking. A back test didn't happen but remains likely as indicators are topping/crossing down, and bearish divergence on volume now showing on my chart. Decision time postponed whether long, or short but shouldn't be too far away.

7660

[Baa_Baa]

The topping process seems to have taken hold, much smaller daily price swings, momentum edging down and all indicators turned over downwards, volume still reducing. What global recession? Watching the NZX you'd think we were immune to the big markets, but we'll see about that soon enough. As the confidence seems to be petering out of the biggest world equities market along with a fair amount of red ink around other globals, it'd be fair to say I think that the ST bull move (sucker rally?) is rapidly running out of puff. Maybe a last gasp is around the corner but doesn't seem anywhere near enough buyer enthusiasm to break up through the massive overhead resistance. Perhaps the GS rampers et al are happy enough here to take profits, go short and enjoy the next leg down. It will unfold very soon I feel.

[Baa_Baa]

Update 21/10 (20/10 USA pre market open)
Never mind that Shanghai is off 3%, maybe it'll bounce back. DOW futures still ahead a smidgeon up at time of posting but not above the massive technical resistance. You'd think world peace had broken out, sovereign debt and deflation had been fixed, US corporate earnings were in aggregate boosting and US employment on the up tick? All the while NZX seems immune or blind to the current topping process in the US. We'll see about that soon enough, after all there's plenty of US big money in our equities market.

Update 20/10 (19/10 USA): DOW was down a bit for the whole session until the very last when it popped up above the open, forming a 'hanging man' candle for the day, a bearish reversal signal, though requiring confirmation. DOW futures are down again slightly as at time of posting this.

---
DOW gets anti-gravity. The news is full of 'no US interest rate rises' this year and on balance, corporate results are looking OK, so here we are, DOW puts on the booster. Now above the 100EMA and right on massive overhead resistance including trend lines and the 200EMA, all indicators perked up. The stage is set for an epic battle between bulls and bears.

7674

[Baa_Baa]

DOW .. wow! Chart shows an impressive comeback, sliced up through the overhead resistance (now support), over the 200EMA, even a small gap-up day from Thursday to Friday. Smashed the technical breakdown point and the 100% retrace. At this stage the bulls are firmly in control.

7682

[Baa_Baa]

Update 2/11: The declining trend line from the May high came into play perfectly, with the DOW halting its stellar rise on Wed, Thurs indecision doji, then Friday retreating to close down 92 at 17,663. DOW futures currently down a further 90 at time of posting.

29/10: DOW continues to impress, risen right up to test the declining trend line from May. What could possibly go wrong when everything appears to be going so right.

[Hoop]

Update 2/11: The declining trend line from the May high came into play perfectly, with the DOW halting its stellar rise on Wed, Thurs indecision doji, then Friday retreating to close down 92 at 17,663. DOW futures currently down a further 90 at time of posting.

29/10: DOW continues to impress, risen right up to test the declining trend line from May. What could possibly go wrong when everything appears to be going so right.
What could go wrong?...Depends on your point of view BaaBaa:)..The rise to test the declining trend line did just that and it was a victory for TA charting... but...it showed another confirmation that the DOW bull is dead..

I produced a chart below with emphasis on large bull market corrections..TA charting often highlights correctional throwbacks to test breakout points...If...(a big if).. If the DOW is currently in another Bull market Correction then a continued higher highs rises in 2016 will occur but first in early 2016 we could see falling 17500 ish levels occurring due to the DOW's Bull Cycle throwback behaviour..

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW%2018122015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW%2018122015.png.html)

[Baa_Baa]

Nice long term chart Hoop, looks vulnerable having this year consistently made lower highs and now looking at testing ST supports. This talks about the "on average" stocks testing the 2009 uptrend - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-19/average-stocks-are-testing-post-2009-uptrend and this view on the Fed raising - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-19/market-has-spoken-fed-made-policy-mistake-and-quantitative-failure-looms-what-comes-

Short term, DOW does look vulnerable though as you say there seems strong support at or around the 'bull/bear' 1700 level. Intriguing that the two Fib retraces drawn line up the 38.2% and 50% at that 1700 support level, and then again the 50% and 61.8% around 16700. Note the larger than usual volume on Friday's sell down. Futures are sideways down a bit at this early stage http://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

7765

[winner69]

Hoop - what you make of these charts?

DOW at 6.000 seems incredible.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article53314.html

Merry Xmas and Happy New Year me old mate

[peat]

Hoop - what you make of these charts?

DOW at 6.000 seems incredible.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article53314.html



We're doomed I tell ya.

[Hoop]

Hoop - what you make of these charts?

DOW at 6.000 seems incredible.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article53314.html

Merry Xmas and Happy New Year me old mate

I learn't a new word for a chart pattern :) Bullhorn...I had to Google it...I guess Bullhorn sounds better than broadening top or Megaphone pattern...
Yeah the article is rather bleak......Hmmm charts ..yes ..mind you charts only portray investor behaviour and this Bull Market has been hated by many investors...Most think this Bull exists due to Central Banks spreading their QE pixie dust over the Global sharemarkets and for years these investors have been rather nervous that one day they will wake up to find that the Equity Market doesn't believe in Fairies anymore...
So the charts have been showing this nervousness too with a lot of against the "norm" type stuff these last couple of years..such as sky high PE's yet no noticeable cyclic reversal.
Speaking of which Winner,,,the chart of the day is interesting..eh

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20151223.gif
DOW at 6000 ...sounds unreal but can't scoff at that prediction, as it is possible looking at the Chart of the Day....The DOW's PE Ratio is around 16.5 (I think) at the moment.. a bit less than the S&P 500... The green line at PE 7 with 2015 earnings would make the DOW be near 7400....

Anyway... Christmas always makes everything rosy....

You have good one Winner...

We will probably chat on the threads before the New Year..

[winner69]

Thanks for your thoughts Hoop

Did you see this ? Just as well NZX has a mind of its own and 2016 will bea Omer.


http://www.businessinsider.com/dow-negative-in-pre-election-years-since-1933-2015-12

What was once viewed earlier in the year as a positive year for the Dow is currently negative to date. I am reminded lately by traders and a myriad of articles that typically the year before an election year is the strongest of a 4-year presidential term.On average (based on data going back to 1933), the Dow Jones Industrial Average gains 10.40% during pre-election years. So far, we are facing negative growth during a pre-election year which would mark the first time this has happened since 1939, according to the traders almanac. However, the year is not over until, as they say, the "fat lady sings." It is the general sentiment amongst the trading community that we will rally into the close of the year. We shall see if it is enough to reverse the fortunes of the Dow.

[winner69]

Thanks for your thoughts Hoop

Did you see this ? Just as well NZX has a mind of its own and 2016 will bea Omer.


http://www.businessinsider.com/dow-negative-in-pre-election-years-since-1933-2015-12

What was once viewed earlier in the year as a positive year for the Dow is currently negative to date. I am reminded lately by traders and a myriad of articles that typically the year before an election year is the strongest of a 4-year presidential term.On average (based on data going back to 1933), the Dow Jones Industrial Average gains 10.40% during pre-election years. So far, we are facing negative growth during a pre-election year which would mark the first time this has happened since 1939, according to the traders almanac. However, the year is not over until, as they say, the "fat lady sings." It is the general sentiment amongst the trading community that we will rally into the close of the year. We shall see if it is enough to reverse the fortunes of the Dow.

[Hoop]

Thanks for your thoughts Hoop

Did you see this ? Just as well NZX has a mind of its own and 2016 will bea Omer.


http://www.businessinsider.com/dow-negative-in-pre-election-years-since-1933-2015-12

What was once viewed earlier in the year as a positive year for the Dow is currently negative to date. I am reminded lately by traders and a myriad of articles that typically the year before an election year is the strongest of a 4-year presidential term.On average (based on data going back to 1933), the Dow Jones Industrial Average gains 10.40% during pre-election years. So far, we are facing negative growth during a pre-election year which would mark the first time this has happened since 1939, according to the traders almanac. However, the year is not over until, as they say, the "fat lady sings." It is the general sentiment amongst the trading community that we will rally into the close of the year. We shall see if it is enough to reverse the fortunes of the Dow.

Did you get the latest chart of the day (http://www.chartoftheday.com/20151230.htm?H) in your email? Winner
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20151230.gif

[Daytr]

World markets are suffering from inertia imo as the system we have lived by for thousands of years has been corrupted and the value of money is now questionable. When debt (government) levels get to unmanageable levels, when money is created by the trillion each year & zero interest rates can't inspire growth I would suggest there are some fundamental flaws in the economic system and global economy. One of the issues is poor use of capital. Normally capital is used to create, however now days there is too much of it controlled by few hands & that capital becomes lazy. We are also seeing corporates use capital to buy their own stock, another very poor use. The Fed. is now trying to normalize interest rates & I can't see US markets doing particularly well while this is going on. Never in modern times has there been so much wealth & so much of it sitting idle. Higher interest rates isn't going to assist in that regard, although I think the Fed has no choice but to normalize. Dare I say it, if the Republicans get in office, their economic driver of choice is likely to be war.

Just a few lazy holiday thoughts, after all sharing is caring. ;-)

[winner69]

Not a good start to the year with DOW down 2% odd

Even though the headline is A stock-market crash of 50%+ would not be a surprise — or the worst-case scenario the article does mention that this time is different - so no worries really

http://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-crash-2016-8

[winner69]

"The old adage is 'if January goes, so goes the year and if the first week goes, so goes the whole month and so on', so it's not a good start," said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James in Florida.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/wall-street-plunge-worst-since-great-depression-after-china-market-dives-20160104-glzae2.html#ixzz3wJ5WBjB2
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

[Aaron]

Here is hoping I have been waiting a long time for this crash. Hopefully a crash in the financial markets doesn't hurt the real economy too badly though.

Hey W69
I thought retired people were supposed to be in cash and bonds once they retire.

Mind you the efforts to destroy currency put in by world central banks lately would make anyone nervous.

[winner69]

Aaron .....don't rush in

Plenty more carnage to come

You looking for another 50% 'crash' I take it ....might get your way

[Daytr]

Listening to CNBC a bit today & I don't think I've heard so much negative rhetoric in regards global markets outlook since probably 2008/9.
I'm hoping for a bounce & then I think I'll set a short position.

[Valuegrowth]

Yes. I agree with you. We can expect strong bounce. It is time to target wining individual stocks separated from the market. By April/May we could see strong market again.

[Joshuatree]

Volatility plus,Dow up hundred ,and then down a hundred and then finished up a 50 points.Chartwise it looks like Zorro was on the tequila and licking the salt:p

[Baa_Baa]

DOW fall from last week stopped at the 61.8% fib retrace (on my chart) and has bounced back a tad from there. Those fibs aren't lies ... just don't know how they do it. ;)

[Daytr]

DOW almost back to August lows. Unless we see oil bounce & hold I can't see this previous low holding. We may see a bounce here, but imo it will be a selling opportunity

[Hoop]

DOW almost back to August lows. Unless we see oil bounce & hold I can't see this previous low holding. We may see a bounce here, but imo it will be a selling opportunity

I agree Daytr
Rotten day but a nice eventful end..The crucial must hold support 15400/15500 did hold and buyers came back in and late in the day the DOW rallied to be "only":t_up:;) 15767 -249 -1.55%

This may signal a bottom and a rally to commence ...but as I'm in the Bear market cycle camp I personally expect the next rally to be the sucker type...It could be a rally event such as a dead cat bounce but looking back to previous bear market cycle charts it wouldn't surprise me if the next rally was a couple of months long which could extend the life of the bear somewhat...If the extended rally does occur it would be destructive as the feel good factor returns, the "told you so" bull brigade will be trumpeting their expertise swaying the inexperienced herd to re-enter...
Things to watch with the next rally...Sucker rallies always fail at a resistance level..so never buy close to a resistance level not matter how rosy things look...

The chart below is very messy but I've tried to cram in a lot of information...I hope it is helpful...

Also I couldn't resist having a dig at the FA discipline...TAers are out of the market as TA has confirmed a Primary Bear tide (signaling a big chance that a Bear market cycle is operating)...They are waiting re-entry using "rowing" strategies thereby have perserved their capital...FAer (longer term) still in "sailing away" awaiting Bear Market confirmation (+20% drop) to occur (14680)....If it occurs there will be another breed of investors hitting the exits and this will cause a loss of buyer momentum hence another down wave, perhaps a stampede.. a +20% loss realised guaranteed..

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW%2020012016_4.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW%2020012016_4.png.html)

[BIRMANBOY]

Probably because there's far too much bouncing around happening....doesn't know whether its coming or going, rising or falling or the trampoline has just blown over the fence.:p



I can't upload the chart :(...will try later

[frostyboy]

Thanks hoop for disclosing your experience. You must be close to clocking the markets now lol. The time to go long stocks or property with leverage is when commodities put in a bottom and commentators say they want to wait to see more data to confirm the trend has turned.

[Hoop]

Thanks hoop for disclosing your experience. You must be close to clocking the markets now lol. The time to go long stocks or property with leverage is when commodities put in a bottom and commentators say they want to wait to see more data to confirm the trend has turned.

A bit early to be thinking of a new bull market cycle Frostyboy....but commodities do hold a key..especially Copper but there are a large number of other leading indicators..I call them Ducks...and most have to line up in a row for confirmation..
Have a look at my 10th February 2009 post using a list of ducks to predict the end of that Bear market Cycle. (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets/page12)..The comments I got are also enlightening especially now with the knowledge of Hindsight..

[Hoop]

Probably because there's far too much bouncing around happening....doesn't know whether its coming or going, rising or falling or the trampoline has just blown over the fence.:p

:D.....I'll opt for the trampoline had just blown over the fence... ;)..The VIX is around 28 so I guess Wall St going to be bouncy for the next few weeks...

[Daytr]

The Saudis are looking to bankrupt the shale oil producers. We will see an energy related debt crisis before we see a turn round.
I shifted all my Super into cash and property recently and will sit tight.
Trying to get long gold as I would suggest this is about the only asset that will perform in such an environment.

[Daytr]

Actually shorted DOW & Brent on this short covering bounce. Hopefully I haven't been premature.

[Hoop]

Actually shorted DOW & Brent on this short covering bounce. Hopefully I haven't been premature.
Hmmm rather bold move there Daytr..It could just as easily turn around and rally up to 17000 (bull bear line & 61.8% fib retrace) after this latest wave down...VIX (26.7) does say expect volatility.... as Birmanboy says the market is bouncing all over the place.

.....but there is short term good news for ya..Today's DOW tested (16039) it's old 16000 support break (now Resistance) and failed ...was this your entry point???

Hmmm..another scenario which is also likely...maybe the down wave still has legs and this is the second breather pause in this downwave (C wave?)..I guess this is your favourite scenario..:D

[Baa_Baa]

@Hoop, would you be able to post your DJIA chart with the Fibs?
TIA

p.s. Twiggs analysis today is "has now broken primary support at 16000, signaling a primary down-trend. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, indicating selling pressure, strengthens the warning. Target for the decline is 14000*."


Target calculation: 16000 - ( 18000 - 16000 ) = 14000

[Daytr]

It's paid off so far. The negative sentiment in this market is palpable & I think any bounce will be sold.
My main concern is the conference in Davos & if world leaders came out in unison to tackle the situation then we could see a swift rally.
However without the Saudis on board in regards oil production I can't see this happening.


Hmmm rather bold move there Daytr..It could just as easily turn around and rally up to 17000 (bull bear line & 61.8% fib retrace) after this latest wave down...VIX (26.7) does say expect volatility.... as Birmanboy says the market is bouncing all over the place.

.....but there is short term good news for ya..Today's DOW tested (16039) it's old 16000 support break (now Resistance) and failed ...was this your entry point???

Hmmm..another scenario which is also likely...maybe the down wave still has legs and this is the second breather pause in this downwave (C wave?)..I guess this is your favourite scenario..:D

[Daytr]

Was a little premature by looks, lucky I had a trailing stop.
Stopped out for a profit and now back short at original re-entry point.

[Hoop]

@Hoop, would you be able to post your DJIA chart with the Fibs?
TIA

p.s. Twiggs analysis today is "has now broken primary support at 16000, signaling a primary down-trend. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, indicating selling pressure, strengthens the warning. Target for the decline is 14000*."


Target calculation: 16000 - ( 18000 - 16000 ) = 14000

Looking at Colin Twiggs weekly chart with his Primary Support at the 16000 area it is a fuzzy area as the candlestick tails pass below it ..I think I prefer my version 15500 (biased:)))..With hindsight I prefer it even more now:) as it does not show that 16000 as a primary "false" break...

The DOW does show major respect for my Primary Support version (15500)...and failing to go lower then breaking back through 16000 again smells like a start to the next rally to me

After a panic drop... trading behaviour is reduced to basic animal instincts and a mad scramble from scavengers to pick up the pieces and look for a quick buck ...that's where Fibonacci analysis becomes a good tool to show resistance areas..(see chart below)

The main objective during a rally within a bearish tide is to be very alert around resistance areas, especially conjunction areas...so not to be caught as a sucker.....Its irrespective if you think its just a severe Bull market correction or not...just treat this rally play as cautious management...

Spooky!!!.....there are close conjunctions (S&R Lines) around both 38.2% and 61.8% Fibs..

Edit:.....I've added Copper price as this is an important duck....It's not revelvant at the moment and may not be for a while ......but in the future if Copper ends its Bear cycle it is an leading indicator that Equity Market will end it's Bear cycle about 6 weeks later

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW%2022012016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW%2022012016.png.html)

[Daytr]

I don't think the Central banks are going to get the same bang for their stimulus buck as previously & although the ECB talk has created this bounce there are now other issues in play, particularly oil and the impact not only in regards that sector, ie a looming debt crisis but also the economies that rely heavily on oil to fund their budgets.

[Daytr]

Oil getting smashed again, Dow trading in sympathy. Bounce may be done.

[Hoop]

Oil getting smashed again, Dow trading in sympathy. Bounce may be done.

You could be right Daytr...an ugly finish today at 15885 slipping back under the 16000 support again kinda kills my sucker rally scenario.... a dead cat bounce it seems...that's not a good sign for the remaining bulls..

[Hoop]

You could be right Daytr...an ugly finish today at 15885 slipping back under the 16000 support again kinda kills my sucker rally scenario.... a dead cat bounce it seems...that's not a good sign for the remaining bulls..

Maybe not right Daytr.....Hmmm...DOW currently 16150 ..It seems the 16000 S&R level doesn't exist atm...with multiple breaking there's now doubt in the argument the 16000 is a primary line

I'll will continue to assume the 15500 (intraday lows) as the primary line I may change my mind to using the DOW Method has a good argument.. the rally yesterday's throwback tested 15800ish region is proving valid.


I'll keep the Fibs analysis off the intraday lows...The DOW theorists use 15700/15800 (closing day lows)...In either case today's move up is a confirmation that the correction (rally) is still in play and likely to test the 38.2% Fib at 16400.

The previous chart I showed the DUCK (copper)...An expansion of this duck is charted below...
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Copper%2026012016_1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/Copper%2026012016_1.png.html)

[frostyboy]

The 2009 bottom in the SPX was lead by commodities
http://iforce.co.nz/i/lljduum2.gma.png (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=lljduum2.gma.png)

Commodities haven't put in a similar bottom
http://iforce.co.nz/i/yhi5pgml.nco.png (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=yhi5pgml.nco.png)

[Daytr]

The market has been talking up the Fed doing a back flip tonight. I think there is a reasonable chance the market is disappointed. I'm not suggesting they will raise rates tonight, but I think they will maintain their policy statement. Yellen wound back QE and has signaled she wants to normalize rates & despite some pain in the long term I think she is right to do so. The market had a free put under Bernanke that created bubbles in equities & bonds,a dangerous combination & risk has been mispriced. Unless we see oil turn, then I think we carry on down.
Even Apple is starting to lose its glamour status.

[Hoop]

The market has been talking up the Fed doing a back flip tonight. I think there is a reasonable chance the market is disappointed. I'm not suggesting they will raise rates tonight, but I think they will maintain their policy statement. Yellen wound back QE and has signaled she wants to normalize rates & despite some pain in the long term I think she is right to do so. The market had a free put under Bernanke that created bubbles in equities & bonds,a dangerous combination & risk has been mispriced. Unless we see oil turn, then I think we carry on down.
Even Apple is starting to lose its glamour status.

Lets see how this 16000 area pans out today..

EDIT:...DOW closed at 15944 -223 -1.38% Nah!! ...16000 failed to show any real resistance with the late in the day fall..I'm going to dismiss the 16000 as being a primary S&R area so no Bear market confirmation at this 16000 level..a bounce off 15878 is one tiny victory for the DOW Theorists.

[Hoop]

The 2009 bottom in the SPX was lead by commodities
http://iforce.co.nz/i/lljduum2.gma.png (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=lljduum2.gma.png)

Commodities haven't put in a similar bottom
http://iforce.co.nz/i/yhi5pgml.nco.png (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=yhi5pgml.nco.png)

Yes agree..there's no copper bottoming out yet...My point of the post was that Copper may have further to fall as the DOW bear market is not yet official... As copper which is already abnormally weak with its prolonged down trend for this stage of events (usually peaking and falling) it opens up a predicting scenario that if an Equity Bear market cycle is established it has to be sooner rather than later (time restriction due to the severity and prolonged Coppers current downtrend)...... Copper trend often reverses outside an Equity Bear market without correlation..but a reversal inside an Equity Bear Market cycle is highly correlated...so...if this scenario pans out, early to mid 2016 will be bad news for Copper..

With a possible Bear Market cycle operating it is time to do some revelant reading... Russell Napier's Anatomy of the Bear is a must read
See my post #133 on Winner69's Investing Strategies and Secular Bear Market thread
(http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets/page9)

Your chart shows JJC which is a copper thingy...notice the signal some 6 weeks before the Equity upturn...(has happened every time)
USO is an Oil thingy Oil It does not correlate well on it's own but grouped within a basket of other commodities it correlates much better...Unfortunately many commentators use only one event data set (as above) as a logical (false) argument which shows correlation but a quick google (my personal lack of time and any chart will do) brings up this not so good example but will do for now chart.. notice the more confusing signaling correlation during the 2001-2003 recession and Equity Bear...
http://cdn.oilprice.com/uploads/AE166.png

[Daytr]

Hoop, I wouldn't worry about copper so much. It has had a supply glut similar to oil, but unlike oil there has already been reasonable cuts in production volume. Oil is driving markets, other things to, like the stronger USD, slow growth, China etc. But oil is the one thing you can point your finger at & see there is a major debt problem if oil doesn't recover. A mini debt crisis, perhaps bigger as the contagion could be bigger than people expect if there are some big oil names going belly up.

[frostyboy]

Its clear hoop is very wise - he also knows his philosophy - critical thinking. I was thinking the oil price bottom would be an indicator this time round too, maybe just a sucker rally if everyone is looking at that for clues?

[Daytr]

I agree not being critical at all, just adding my 2c being an ex metals and energy trader.
I find Hoop's analysis insightful & valuable.

[Daytr]

BOJ comes to the equity markets rescue with negative rates. Who is the government really looking after? Poor policy. Japan continues on the road to no where. Markets will settle & then resume down trend in my view, unless oil continues its bounce, then all bets are off.

[Valuegrowth]

DOW roared back to above 16,000 on Friday.

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/01/31/berkshire-resumes-buying-phillips-66-stock/

Billionaire Warren Buffett's Berkshire resumes buying Phillips 66 stockhttp://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/jeremy-siegels-bullish-case-stocks?nopaging=1Jeremy Siegel’s Bullish Case For Stocks

[Daytr]

Hoop, where do you see next major resistance for the DOW?

[Hoop]

Hoop, where do you see next major resistance for the DOW?

Major resistance around the 17000 - 17200 zone
Daytr..I will post an update later when I get time..
cheers:)

[Hoop]

Major resistance around the 17000 - 17200 zone
Daytr..I will post an update later when I get time..
cheers:)

Time adds information data to the Chart



Maybe not right Daytr.....Hmmm...DOW currently 16150 ..It seems the 16000 S&R level doesn't exist atm...with multiple breaking there's now doubt in the argument the 16000 is a primary line

I'll will continue to assume the 15500 (intraday lows) as the primary line I may change my mind to using the DOW Method has a good argument.. the rally yesterday's throwback tested 15800ish region is proving valid.


I'll keep the Fibs analysis off the intraday lows...The DOW theorists use 15700/15800 (closing day lows)...In either case today's move up is a confirmation that the correction (rally) is still in play and likely to test the 38.2% Fib at 16400..........

Hmmm ...Although the DOW correction (rally) pattern is still operating, a dead cat bounce event can not be ruled out yet especially when the DOW failed around the 38.2% Fib resistance 16400 area today. The DOW did get to 16510 yesterday but failed at that minor resistance area...See my Post #872 chart
(http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6114-Dow/page59)
Currently 16142 down 278

[Hoop]

27th Jan 2016

Maybe not right Daytr.....Hmmm...DOW currently 16150 ..It seems the 16000 S&R level doesn't exist atm...with multiple breaking there's now doubt in the argument the 16000 is a primary line

I'll will continue to assume the 15500 (intraday lows) as the primary line I may change my mind to using the DOW Method has a good argument.. the rally yesterday's throwback tested 15800ish region is proving valid.


I'll keep the Fibs analysis off the intraday lows...The DOW theorists use 15700/15800 (closing day lows)...In either case today's move up is a confirmation that the correction (rally) is still in play and likely to test the 38.2% Fib at 16400...................


DOW fell through the 16000 without hesitation...so this S&R line isn't working anymore...The intra-day bottom has once again bounced off the 15800 support ...The 38.2% Fib + 16500 resistance line seemed to be the extent of the last short rally ...this failure at key resistance levels is typical behaviour of a bear market cycle correction (sucker rally) therefore this behaviour adds confirmation that a bear market cycle is operating even though it is not yet official..

[Valuegrowth]

DOW is hovering around 16,000. Tomorrow is the day to watch!

[Daytr]

The mood has changed for the worse. Before it was higher interest rates, stronger dollar, weaker earnings. Then came oil and the debt related, now its European banks. DB is the 4th largest bank in Europe. Rally tonight is on the assumption that Yellen will be more dovish. Yellen imo knows rates have to be normalized. I'm not sure we will see her back away from 4 forecast hikes.

[Daytr]

Dow in breakdown territory again. Opportunity or break lower?

[Valuegrowth]

So far, two of the winners in DOW are:

CSCO:US

DIS:US

Despite selloff we find great individual wining stocks globally. It is time to find those types of stocks. Current sell off should ease by next week.

[Daytr]

Not part of the DOW, but my Tesla shares did ok. Up around 10%! ;-) Not bad on a down day.

[Entrep]

DIS 52wk Range: 86.25 - 122.08. Current $89.55
CSCO 52wk Range: 22.46 - 30.31. Current $24.70

For something to be considered a winner it just need to not be on 52 week lows?

[Hoop]

Looking at Colin Twiggs weekly chart with his Primary Support at the 16000 area it is a fuzzy area as the candlestick tails pass below it ..I think I prefer my version 15500 (biased:)))..With hindsight I prefer it even more now:) as it does not show that 16000 as a primary "false" break...........................


.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ......
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Hoop http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=604881#post604881)
Maybe not right Daytr.....Hmmm...DOW currently 16150 ..It seems the 16000 S&R level doesn't exist atm...with multiple breaking there's now doubt in the argument the 16000 is a primary line

I'll will continue to assume the 15500 (intraday lows) as the primary line I may change my mind to using the DOW Method has a good argument.. the rally yesterday's throwback tested 15800ish region is proving valid.


I'll keep the Fibs analysis off the intraday lows...The DOW theorists use 15700/15800 (closing day lows)...In either case today's move up is a confirmation that the correction (rally) is still in play and likely to test the 38.2% Fib at 16400..........
.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ..

Bang on 15500 support today before bouncing...broken below 15700/15800 ish so expect the rally to run out of steam here today.

For me the 15500 was the major support (primary) not 16000...so imo 15500 is the last line of defense for the remaining bulls.

However the DOW Theorists will be running for the hills if today's close is below 15700/15800 support... It could be their official entry into bear country.

Todays day chart..(interactive..self updating)

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=DJIA&uf=8&type=4&size=4&sid=1643&style=320&freq=8&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=3&rand=1006352565&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=4&maval=50%20100%20200&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=635&width=1045&mocktick=1

[Valuegrowth]

Yes.15,500 should consider as major support for DOW. Next support is 15,000. However, we can ignore global indexes and still can find some great winners in global markets.

Food and utilities are outperforming the broader market. Some food stocks specially some poultry stocks are breaking their 52 weeks high and all time high due to earnings outlook in the coming financial year. Have they become safe heavens? Following types of stocks have more demand and they have more legs.

Kellogg Company (K)

ConAgra Foods, Inc. (CAG)

McDonald's Corp. (MCD)

Sanderson Farms, Inc. (SAFM)

Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN)

PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLK)

Farm Pride Foods Ltd (FRM.AX)

[Daytr]

Definitely safe havens as so many market commentators are recommending them. My issue is that they become an over crowded trade & over valued and then there goes the safe haven tag. If you were in early great. But they might be fairly risky at this point.

[Valuegrowth]

Definitely safe havens as so many market commentators are recommending them. My issue is that they become an over crowded trade & over valued and then there goes the safe haven tag. If you were in early great. But they might be fairly risky at this point.


Yes. I agree with you. Although some analysts have come up with very optimistic target on some of the above stocks and have upgraded them, still we have to do our home work. I find more upside potential for some of the above stocks.

It is time to stay with very attractive stocks having strong earnings outlook. Value stocks are the best. We find great value stocks in almost all types of markets such as developed, emerging and frontier markets. After this brutal sell off, there could be some winners in DOW as well. It is time to identify them.

[Daytr]

Maybe time to identify them, just not sure its time to buy them yet. I fully expect another major leg down equities or a capitulation & that's when it may be a good time to step in. Oil related debt & European banks are still issues to unfold. You can add some emerging economies to that list as well.

[Valuegrowth]

I prefer to stay with attractive consumer related stocks having their major uptrend intact. Commodity stocks also can give some moderate return when they have some technical rebound.

[Baa_Baa]

Percentage Gain / Loss












SP High




SP Now




$ + / -




% + / -




DOW


$18351.000




$15973.000




-$2378.000




-13%




S&P500 13 Feb


$2134.000




$1864.000




-$270.000




-13%




NASDAQ 13 Feb


$5231.000




$4337.000




-$894.000




-17%




NYSE 13 Feb


$11254.000




$9029.000




-$2225.000




-20%




Russell 2000 13 Feb


$12.960




$9.537




-$3.423




-26%




Shanghai 13 Feb


$5176.000




$2763.000




-$2413.000




-47%




Gold 13 Feb


$1920.180




$1246.510




-$673.670




-35%




NZX50 13 Feb


$6324.000




$5933.000




-$391.000




-6%

[Valuegrowth]

Percentage Gain / Loss












SP High




SP Now




$ + / -




% + / -




DOW


$18351.000




$15973.000




-$2378.000




-13%




S&P500 13 Feb


$2134.000




$1864.000




-$270.000




-13%




NASDAQ 13 Feb


$5231.000




$4337.000




-$894.000




-17%




NYSE 13 Feb


$11254.000




$9029.000




-$2225.000




-20%




Russell 2000 13 Feb


$12.960




$9.537




-$3.423




-26%




Shanghai 13 Feb


$5176.000




$2763.000




-$2413.000




-47%




Gold 13 Feb


$1920.180




$1246.510




-$673.670




-35%




NZX50 13 Feb


$6324.000




$5933.000




-$391.000




-6%






Nice comparison on markets and gold. Actually, NZ market has done well.

I believe end of 2016 or beginning of next year, we can get some clue for bear market in some markets. There are some short term weak supports for GOLD. Still gold prices should go down in 2016/17. Oil should average around $35 in 2016/17. Oil cannot stay below $30 for a long period.

DOW also can rebound to certain level. If it can pass 19,000 it might ended up breaking 20,000 and 21000 as well.

[Valuegrowth]

Can strength of the Dow Jones Transportation Average send DOW much higher? Divergences indicate a possible change in trend. It is time to pay close attention to DOW transports as well.

[Daytr]

I don't think anything has changed MW. The only thing I would say is that the bear market or recession perhaps has been so well telegraphed that it then may not be as bad as it might have been. I've shorted the DOW & Brent again, been a good trade to date, but I'm aware the DOW hasn't broken down either.

[Valuegrowth]

I don't think anything has changed MW. The only thing I would say is that the bear market or recession perhaps has been so well telegraphed that it then may not be as bad as it might have been. I've shorted the DOW & Brent again, been a good trade to date, but I'm aware the DOW hasn't broken down either.

Thank so much Daytr for your ideas. Some are bullish and some are bearish. But I am very bullish on some stocks globally specially on stocks which can break their 52 weeks high or all time high.

[Hoop]

Looking at Colin Twiggs weekly chart with his Primary Support at the 16000 area it is a fuzzy area as the candlestick tails pass below it ..I think I prefer my version 15500 (biased:)))..With hindsight I prefer it even more now:) as it does not show that 16000 as a primary "false" break...

The DOW does show major respect for my Primary Support version (15500)...and failing to go lower then breaking back through 16000 again smells like a start to the next rally to me

After a panic drop... trading behaviour is reduced to basic animal instincts and a mad scramble from scavengers to pick up the pieces and look for a quick buck ...that's where Fibonacci analysis becomes a good tool to show resistance areas..(see chart below)

The main objective during a rally within a bearish tide is to be very alert around resistance areas, especially conjunction areas...so not to be caught as a sucker.....Its irrespective if you think its just a severe Bull market correction or not...just treat this rally play as cautious management...

Spooky!!!.....there are close conjunctions (S&R Lines) around both 38.2% and 61.8% Fibs..

Edit:.....I've added Copper price as this is an important duck....It's not revelvant at the moment and may not be for a while ......but in the future if Copper ends its Bear cycle it is an leading indicator that Equity Market will end it's Bear cycle about 6 weeks later

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW%2022012016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW%2022012016.png.html)

.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................

Update of my 25 Jan 2016 post:

My above commentary says it all...

Note:..16500 resistance line becoming a strong area + Fib 38.2% (support?/resistance? ..within the margin of error) + EMA50 (resistance) = conjunction area...

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW%2018022016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW%2018022016.png.html)

[macduffy]

Will the Fed move or won't it? Will it tighten or loosen? The mystery deepens!

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-weekahead-idUSKCN0VS2OQ

[Valuegrowth]

I believe the market has already factored in fed rate hike. Am I right?

Billionaires are starting to bottom fish in some stocks. Seth Klarman, gorge Soros, David Tepper, Carl Icahn and Warren Buffett all either added more or initiated new stakes in stocks. Situations where good funds are doubling on stocks are bullish. Gathering in stocks and sectors by good hedge funds is bullish.

We will wait and see.

[Daytr]

This potential Honeywell merger isn't helping my DOW short!

[Hoop]

This potential Honeywell merger isn't helping my DOW short!
You should be happier today Daytr....
DOW squeezed passed the strengthening 16500 resistance yesterday (giving the investor bulls some hope) only to fail at the next resistance today, the MA50 line at 16600...

Failing at significant resistances is a typical bear market rally signature therefore adding another confirmation that the DOW is operating in a bear tide.

DOW currently at 16420 -199 -1.21%

[Daytr]

Yeah I did pretty well, shorted DOW, Oil & long gold a few days back. Got out a little early but still did very well.
I was/am very wary being short growth with the G20 looming.
Expecting to see a rally prior G20 that gets disappointed post.

[Daytr]

Well we have seen the G20 rally and it looks like its already starting to fade.
Used the outside break to re-short Brent & the DOW.

[Valuegrowth]

Suddenly, DOW 17,000 is in sight. It is going to be very interesting month next month. Oil should average around $35/38 in 2016/17. Oil cannot stay below $28 for a long period.

[Daytr]

I think we now see the DOW pushed back down post G20. No real traction from the meeting and more talk around risk of a Brexit.

[Valuegrowth]

It is going to take 10 years to extricate itself from the EU. Brexit has both positive and negative implications. Overall, it won’t make big difference. UK might build new economic alliances with other regions as well which include the USA, New Zealand, South Korea and Australia.

[Daytr]

It doesn't really matter what you or I think, its the market perception that counts & the perception is a Brexit would have massive implications for the UK, Europe and global growth .

[Daytr]

Wow big risk on night! Funny gold was surging prior, and then growth assets took off. I had some small shorts in place that got knocked out, only to be reset closer to the highs. I'm not a believer in this rally, but I respect it. If oil is allowed to go higher still then we will see a continuation of the rally.
I suggest this is a sucker rally and things will turn rather quickly to the negative again. But perhaps I'm the sucker.

[Hoop]

Wow big risk on night! Funny gold was surging prior, and then growth assets took off. I had some small shorts in place that got knocked out, only to be reset closer to the highs. I'm not a believer in this rally, but I respect it. If oil is allowed to go higher still then we will see a continuation of the rally.
I suggest this is a sucker rally and things will turn rather quickly to the negative again. But perhaps I'm the sucker.

No No you are not the sucker..
You use the strategy given to you by the market (you play the cards that Mr Market deals to you)...When in a bear market cycle, you use bear market strategies when in bull market cycle you use Bull Market strategies..

The most common and very efficient Bull Market Strategy is the simple Buy and Hold method..Because a Bull market lasts a long time (av4years) most use Long Term Buy and Hold Strategy.

Bear Market Strategies are not simple some are complex and require Education and skills..

The DOW is not yet officially in a Bear Market Cycle..Some of Us ( I included) think this bear tide is stage 1 Bear Market Cycle Phase which has been abnormally long..that length of time is disconcerting..which makes some wonder if the market weakness is due to a sleeping bull...Alternating strategies on the emotional highs and lows of the Market tends an investor to create mistiming problems, causes doubt, a loss of confidence, self blame..

[Valuegrowth]

Bulls are back. If everything goes well Dow could pass 18,000 and 19,000 and could expect some of the active months in April and May in stock markets globally. Coming months are very crucial.

http://fortune.com/2016/03/04/dow-jones-17000-2/ (http://fortune.com/2016/03/04/dow-jones-17000-2/)

Dow Climbs Back Above 17,000

[Hoop]

Bulls are back. If everything goes well Dow could pass 18,000 and 19,000 and could expect some of the active months in April and May in stock markets globally. Coming months are very crucial.

http://fortune.com/2016/03/04/dow-jones-17000-2/ (http://fortune.com/2016/03/04/dow-jones-17000-2/)

Dow Climbs Back Above 17,000

Yes the bulls are doing well.... gone past the 17000/17200 road block zone after a little pause to recognize the resistances..and today it tested the breakout (17200) before the FED news. That bounce off the 17200 strengthens that new support.
The next test is the 4.5 month Primary down trend line currently at 17470.....This downtrend line (17470) is one of the big milestones, above it is the first confirmation (1st of 2) that this 2 month weakness is a bull market correction and not a bear down wave..

Before one puts their party hat back on... 2 things
1....Even though this milestone is close (<1%) The Dow still has to get above this confirmation point
2....The Bollinger Bands are tightening suggesting a near future change of trend (end of the rally) and/or change of acceleration.

Dow closed at 17325 +74 +0.43% with the news that the FED is softening its rate increase stance by holding rates steady and only seeing 2 rate hikes this year now (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2016/03/16/live-blog-and-video-of-fed-decision-and-janet-yellen-press-conference-3/)

[Valuegrowth]

Yes the bulls are doing well.... gone past the 17000/17200 road block zone after a little pause to recognize the resistances..and today it tested the breakout (17200) before the FED news. That bounce off the 17200 strengthens that new support.
The next test is the 4.5 month Primary down trend line currently at 17470.....This downtrend line (17470) is one of the big milestones, above it is the first confirmation (1st of 2) that this 2 month weakness is a bull market correction and not a bear down wave..

Before one puts their party hat back on... 2 things
1....Even though this milestone is close (<1%) The Dow still has to get above this confirmation point
2....The Bollinger Bands are tightening suggesting a near future change of trend (end of the rally) and/or change of acceleration.

Dow closed at 17325 +74 +0.43% with the news that the FED is softening its rate increase stance by holding rates steady and only seeing 2 rate hikes this year now (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2016/03/16/live-blog-and-video-of-fed-decision-and-janet-yellen-press-conference-3/)

Yes Hoop you are right.

Madam Chair Yellen is very intelligent. She knows how to act and take decisions (with her team) according to the situation after taking consideration of the most important economic factors in the world. Fed’s decision will bring some stability not only to the USA but also to other countries including emerging and frontier countries. As I said before some stocks should break their 52 weeks high and their life time high again globally specially undervalued stocks having strong earning outlook.I think fed might raise rate most probably in 2017 than in 2016.

[Daytr]

US indices are well over valued considering the economic backdrop. The fact that the Fed is being so careful on rates says not all is ok.
Bubbles on bubbles caused by free money.
Sorry I'm a fundamentalist at heart and there is something very, very wrong with the global economic picture in my view.
Not saying you can trade to it, but I do like how gold has been behaving.

[Valuegrowth]

Dow smashed 17500 and it turned positive for 2016 as well. Whatever the reason, global markets are bouncing back after yearly low in February 2016. It is true stocks can go higher and higher in bull markets still it is better not to become too greedy or too optimistic. Globally, money is simply flowing from one bearish sector into the bullish ones. We could see some sort of rotation as well. In short, it is wise to stay with stocks which can beat both bull and bear. Currently, USA stocks are leading. We should see bullish trend while having some volatility in global stocks markets which include emerging and frontier markets. As I said before year of 2016 is going to be another year of opportunity for disciplined and patient investors. They already got some great opportunity during last two months.

[Baa_Baa]

Certainly is an impressive run-up, plowing through resistance at every point for the past 5 weeks. Will be interesting to see if that shallow down trend resistance line holds next week. Everything looking toppy right here.
7941

[Hoop]

Hmmm... BaaBaa nice rising wedge... too steep to be sustainable and the VIX at 14 infers not much trend volatility for a little while (30 days)..an interesting mix..eh ?...either a continuing straight line up or flat-lining?

Rising wedge reversal breakouts can be lousy shorting opportunities (Bulkowski (http://thepatternsite.com/risewedge.html)). This sort of says any break out may be more of a side way movement with pullback or two stopping any major downward trend volatility.....a plateauing out?..pause?... Therefore the low VIX makes a sudden downward crash type movement in the next month a lower (32%) probability happening..

Although VIX is an S&P500 instrument it works OK for the DOW as the S&P500 and DOW correlate very well..

VIX at 14(%) = 68% probability the S&P500 volatility will range between +3.46% and -3.46% ** for the next month period

** 14% / √12 = 3.46%

[macduffy]

Time for a reality check?

http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/OTB_Mar_18_2016.pdf

[Baa_Baa]

Hmmm... BaaBaa nice rising wedge... too steep to be sustainable and the VIX at 14 infers not much trend volatility for a little while (30 days)..an interesting mix..eh ?...either a continuing straight line up or flat-lining?

Rising wedge reversal breakouts can be lousy shorting opportunities (Bulkowski (http://thepatternsite.com/risewedge.html)). This sort of says any break out may be more of a side way movement with pullback or two stopping any major downward trend volatility.....a plateauing out?..pause?... Therefore the low VIX makes a sudden downward crash type movement in the next month a lower (32%) probability happening..

Although VIX is an S&P500 instrument it works OK for the DOW as the S&P500 and DOW correlate very well..

VIX at 14(%) = 68% probability the S&P500 volatility will range between +3.46% and -3.46% ** for the next month period

** 14% / √12 = 3.46%

Seems we're of the few who take notice at the moment, while the majority are relishing in the invincible NZX (good on them, make hay while it shines), but DOW has made a remarkable run, previous few days topping patterns, today slamming into resistance at the 176XX trend line. Currently futures are off the pace pointing to a breather. I have ST support at 17400-17300, or if the formation breaks 17000, 16750. A break above 176XX and 17970 (100%retrace) is in play with the all time high above that. MA's seem to have no bearing on price performance at the moment.

[Baa_Baa]

7952

Could be the end, of the up trend? Whole up-move is on declining volume, RSI over bought turnover, STO turnover, money flow looking OK. Respect of the descending trend line looks like a top is in however falling through the steep rising pennant and back test to previous support suggests some life in this yet, as of Friday. I reckon it'll have another go at the descending trend line from the high before anything significant happens. Either way, it's close now.

[winner69]

Hoop said - VIX at 14(%) = 68% probability the S&P500 volatility will range between +3.46% and -3.46% ** for the next month period

Bugger - unlikely to see a new all time high then in next month ....but could get pretty close

[Baa_Baa]

Hoop said - VIX at 14(%) = 68% probability the S&P500 volatility will range between +3.46% and -3.46% ** for the next month period

Bugger - unlikely to see a new all time high then in next month ....but could get pretty close

VIX bolted 2 pips last week, esp Friday then settled back to 14.7% so you're (and Hoop) are probably right, the indices look to thrash around here or thereabouts trying to find direction.

[Baa_Baa]

DOW made a clean breakout and close above the descending trend line resistance, now support. Refer previous chart. Target 17977 being 100% retrace of the Nov 3 2015 high. Impressive, especially if it continues up to test the all time high 18351 19 May 2015. Other big US indices are a bit behind DOW's recovery but trending in the same direction.

[Valuegrowth]

Yes. DOW has taken the lead in the USA. Markets from the USA to Asia pacific region have become somewhat active now.

[Baa_Baa]

Should be an interesting week coming up, after 5 days of price weakness but the Golden Cross (50EMA crossed up through the 200MA) suggests otherwise. Indicators have all turned over, could be a top is in with the DOW after the past few weeks of stellar performance.

7967

[Valuegrowth]

DOW is getting closer to 18,000.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/marketnewsvideo/2016/04/13/dow-movers-vz-jpm-2/#4bce88057243 (http://www.forbes.com/sites/marketnewsvideo/2016/04/13/dow-movers-vz-jpm-2/#4bce88057243)

Dow Movers: VZ, JPM

[Valuegrowth]

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/18/investing/dow-jones-tops-18000/index.html

Wild ride: Dow tops 18,000 for first time since last July

[Baa_Baa]

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/18/investing/dow-jones-tops-18000/index.html

Wild ride: Dow tops 18,000 for first time since last July

Stunning performance. That's above the 100% Fib retrace starting Nov'15 and only 340 clicks away from an all time high! Unbelievable, if it wasn't actually happening. Wow.
:eek2:

[Hoop]

Stunning performance. That's above the 100% Fib retrace starting Nov'15 and only 340 clicks away from an all time high! Unbelievable, if it wasn't actually happening. Wow.
:eek2:
Yes..it's truly amazing...but from a TA perspective, low volume rallies are scary... and adding that the media is leading us to believe these volume totals and rising share prices are partially due to companies buy backs..Hmmmm

[peat]

from a TA perspective, low volume rallies are scary...

Technicians seem to be doubting their tea leaves

Twiggs also : On the fourteenth he said "I remain wary of this rally but will heed Jesse Livermore's advice: never argue with the tape", but more recently said "I remain wary of the current state of the global economy and will continue on the defensive. This is not a classic bull market.


Me too!
I see an enormous W
7991

[Baa_Baa]

Technicians seem to be doubting their tea leaves [snip] Me too! I see an enormous W


Believe the chart eh?

A classic looking W double bottom pattern (bullish), nice down-trend line breakout-up and currently testing the Neckline resistance, with a weekly close just above at 18003 (significant?). Pattern probability suggests a breakout-up of the neckline here would go easily to the all time high.

On the doubt side, all indicators diverging, not a good sign. Outside the chart, reflecting on the US economy, and who is actually buying (and selling) this rally, it's no wonder the doubt creeps in. It looks so toppy (price) and unstable (indicators).

7992

dyodd

[peat]

A classic looking W double bottom pattern (bullish),

Trouble is I see W's as bearish.
Sure the hammer in August and the respect of that in January could be considered a double bottom and hence bullish, but to me M's are bullish and W's are bearish

[Baa_Baa]

@peat in as much as the double bottom reversal shows, the pattern has been bullish forming a W, rising to the neckline. Whether that can breakout-up is another matter, you may be right that it goes bear here.

Here's an update on the table I posted 22 Feb, now including 23 Apr and the Change. Sure has been bullish for the US and NZ equities indexes, though not so for Gold.

7993

[Valuegrowth]

It is interesting to see DOW is holding 18,000 despite Microsoft’s fall.

[Hoop]

Don't let the W shape alter your perceptions it is this shape at the moment..charts are full of w actions both during uptrends and downtrends but most go unnoticed as they are insignificant.. many are just continuation events which really sums up the prediction outcomes of W movements..
When an "can't miss seeing" pronounced W happens all shorts of predictions pop up in the media, many look to the revision mirror and see sharp W corrections and an optimist sees a sharp rally extending through to new highs or a pessimist sees an impending crash when the W shape is played out..
There isn't much info on W but there is some recognition that the big w is a chart pattern, strangely the big w has a much lower middle rally point so really it should be called small w as people refer to a big w as a capital W which in the alphabet has a high middle rally point...
Why isn't a W recognised widely as a chart pattern is strange..one answer from me could be that the W are really other patterns such as a formed double bottom (bullish pattern) or a triple tops (bearish pattern) still in progress..so you can see how different investors can take different predictive views...
While the right hand side W was still forming ...this last DOW rally had a doubtful rising wedge pattern (S&P500 pronounced pattern) ..This sharp uptrend ended about a month ago (downward breakout of the rising wedge, but..against many TAers it has kept going up abeit in a much slowing upward rounding type trend to this present day full W shape...

Although I'm in the long term bear camp (still am)..Arfter the rising wedge break I actually thought this slowing trend to flat line or possible slow declining trend may play out over the following month (19th March to 19th April) and did not think a crash would happen for the following month up to 19th April 2016

Hmmm... BaaBaa nice rising wedge... too steep to be sustainable and the VIX at 14 infers not much trend volatility for a little while (30 days)..an interesting mix..eh ?...either a continuing straight line up or flat-lining?

Rising wedge reversal breakouts can be lousy shorting opportunities (Bulkowski (http://thepatternsite.com/risewedge.html)). This sort of says any break out may be more of a side way movement with pullback or two stopping any major downward trend volatility.....a plateauing out?..pause?... Therefore the low VIX makes a sudden downward crash type movement in the next month a lower (32%) probability happening..

Although VIX is an S&P500 instrument it works OK for the DOW as the S&P500 and DOW correlate very well..

VIX at 14(%) = 68% probability the S&P500 volatility will range between +3.46% and -3.46% ** for the next month period

** 14% / √12 = 3.46%

This little prediction turned out nicely for me as most still favoured either a another sharp fall/crash or a continuation of a rapid uptrend to smash through resistances to new record highs and even higher within a couples of weeks...

My belief is still the same.. I'm been very amazed and impressed by Wall St resilience against most odds..but..Until I see a record high (above the margin of error) I will still view the DOW as being in a Bear Market Cycle (stage 1) not a sleeping bull,,therefore view any rally as a sucker rally and therefore I will always be cautious...Remember sucker rallies are notorious as they can suck in the best of us into thinking the worst is over..that's why they call it sucker rally..They are rare but I have seen a full retracement including a small record high sucker rally..

[Hoop]

It is interesting to see DOW is holding 18,000 despite Microsoft’s fall.

Yes..I thought the amount of money tied up in these supersized stocks any significant fall would see investors in other stocks cashing up in fear of the overall market losing momentum....it seems I was wrong..again:p

[Baa_Baa]

It is interesting to see DOW is holding 18,000 despite Microsoft’s fall.

Equally as interesting is the massive upside gains in some of the DOW30 stocks, for example Caterpillar gained over twice as much % as MSFT lost. Have a look ... http://money.cnn.com/data/dow30/ Makes you wonder who's selling and who's buying. Plenty of speculation lately about that.

[Valuegrowth]

Equally as interesting is the massive upside gains in some of the DOW30 stocks, for example Caterpillar gained over twice as much % as MSFT lost. Have a look ... http://money.cnn.com/data/dow30/ Makes you wonder who's selling and who's buying. Plenty of speculation lately about that.

Yes. It is also very interesting.

Next week will be the busiest week for earnings. Some of the stocks to watch are DuPont, GE, CAT, IBM, MCD, JPM, VX, WMT and UTX.

It is kind of rotational bull market that we are going to see in global stocks markets in 2016. It should be value stocks over growth stocks.

My next target for DOW is 18500 after this earnings season. Hope that earnings will not disappoint us.

[Baa_Baa]

Yes. It is also very interesting.

Next week will be the busiest week for earnings. Some of the stocks to watch are DuPont, GE, CAT, IBM, MCD, JPM, VX, WMT and UTX.

It is kind of rotational bull market that we are going to see in global stocks markets in 2016. It should be value stocks over growth stocks.

My next target for DOW is 18500 after this earnings season. Hope that earnings will not disappoint us.

Which of those companies is not buying back their own shares? And of those who are, which are using debt to buy back? This I think is at the nub of the capital appreciation and needs to be understood as to whether the US equities rise in recent times is sustainable. Conversely, who is selling to the buyers? Are they China, Canada, Europe .. unloading their vast holdings of US equities, into the last desperate phase of a market appreciation? Intriguing times these are, and those immediately ahead of us. It all looks very fragile to me.

[Valuegrowth]

Good observation Baa Baa. Stock prices can go up or down due to more than one reasons. Some want to support their own shares. Not only some of the most sophisticated investors but also private equity firms were buying back their own shares.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/303762/have-central-banks-restarted-bull-market

Have central banks restarted bull market?

[Baa_Baa]

Good observation Baa Baa. Stock prices can go up or down due to more than one reasons. Some want to support their own shares. Not only some of the most sophisticated investors but also private equity firms were buying back their own shares.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/303762/have-central-banks-restarted-bull-market

Have central banks restarted bull market?

Thanks, good article. Great line about the head wanting to buy but the discipline preventing it.

These two I found interesting as well:

Who the Heck Is Buying the US Stocks that Chinese and other Foreign Investors Are Massively Dumping? http://wolfstreet.com/2016/04/19/who-the-heck-is-buying-the-us-stocks-that-chinese-and-other-foreign-investors-are-massively-dumping/

This Also Happened the Last 2 Times before Stocks Crashed http://wolfstreet.com/2016/04/18/financial-engineering-share-buybacks-backfire-like-before-last-2-stock-market-crashes/

[Valuegrowth]

Thanks, good article. Great line about the head wanting to buy but the discipline preventing it.

These two I found interesting as well:

Who the Heck Is Buying the US Stocks that Chinese and other Foreign Investors Are Massively Dumping? http://wolfstreet.com/2016/04/19/who-the-heck-is-buying-the-us-stocks-that-chinese-and-other-foreign-investors-are-massively-dumping/

This Also Happened the Last 2 Times before Stocks Crashed http://wolfstreet.com/2016/04/18/financial-engineering-share-buybacks-backfire-like-before-last-2-stock-market-crashes/


Thank you for some valuable links. We can clearly see notable rising trend for USD despite selling US bonds and stocks.

How about high frequency trading,formula trading, algorithmic trading and fund trading? They also can move stock indexes and futures market at least for the short run. Fundamentals are very weak for grain. However we saw sudden spike in commodity futures recently and now they are tumbling again. What cash markets are doing is the opposite of futures.

Who were the big soybean and grain buyers? Funds have been participating with derivative trading, plus futures trades along with Over the Counter trading. Large fund traders have become smarter.

Over the past seven years China has become a centre of economic attention. When China buys or sells, their large transactions also affect markets. There is a talk, at some point they will sell 15 percent of their stockpiled corn.

AT some point we should see bear market. In other words over valued Assets should readjust at some point. Value stocks should outperform growth stocks in 2016.

[Hoop]

Batten down the hatches me hearties, there's a storm brewing

[Aaron]

Batten down the hatches me hearties, there's a storm brewing
Central banks still have plenty of oil to pour on troubled waters. If successful they should destroy cashed up investors like myself before risk takers and borrowers are affected. I keep getting my hopes up that there will be an investment opportunity like 2009 again only to have them dashed time after time.

[Hoop]

Central banks still have plenty of oil to pour on troubled waters. If successful they should destroy cashed up investors like myself before risk takers and borrowers are affected. I keep getting my hopes up that there will be an investment opportunity like 2009 again only to have them dashed time after time.
Central banks still have plenty of oil to pour on troubled waters...for an increasing number of commentators the central banks continued meddling is their fear...
Having a Low interest rates and easy monetary policy period for too long breeds lazy inefficient investing..This school of thought which was pooh poohed years ago is gaining some renewed popularity.

..getting my hopes up that there will be an investment opportunity like 2009 again...Aaron are you implying now is a good investment opportunity time?
In early 2007 the DOW was around 14000 and the Earnings/share peaked at about $85 (S&P500 value) which is about the same as now (($90ish/S&P500 share), except the DOW is now at 18000.. Hmmm.. If I can remember correctly, after the crash in 2008, everyone agreed how overvalued the DOW was in 2007...It's wonderful with hindsight...ehh

[Aaron]

..getting my hopes up that there will be an investment opportunity like 2009 again...Aaron are you implying now is a good investment opportunity time?
In early 2007 the DOW was around 14000 and the Earnings/share peaked at about $85 (S&P500 value) which is about the same as now (($90ish/S&P500 share), except the DOW is now at 18000.. Hmmm.. If I can remember correctly, after the crash in 2008, everyone agreed how overvalued the DOW was in 2007...It's wonderful with hindsight...ehh

In 2007 it was 14,000 by March 2009 it was 7,000-8,000.

[Hoop]

Apologies Aaron..it seems I got lost in translation :p:confused:

Sorry..I thought you mean't today prices had opportunities similar to those opportunities back in 2009...

[Aaron]

All good Hoop.
I like Stanley Drickenmiller here is his current advice.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/druckenmiller-get-out-of-the-stock-market-own-gold.html

I also like how he points out that current seniors are ripping off the young and yet to be born generations in the US. I imagine we have parallels in NZ. (see his youtube clips)
Also he points out easy money and low interest rates are designed to boost the stockmarket to create the "wealth effect" but in reality it is mostly helping the wealthy. A bit like "trickle down" and other dumb theories that have proven to be bull****.

[winner69]

@RBAdvisors: .@ICI: $8B outflow from equity funds last week.$8B into bond funds. Rates must be going up soon.

[Valuegrowth]

What do you think about following?

According to Bond-fund manager Bill Gross“Interest rates will stay low for longer, asset prices will continue to be artificially high.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-04/gross-sees-qe4-ahead-as-citi-says-investors-revive-easing-views

Gross Sees QE4 Ahead as Citi Says Investors Revive Easing Views

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-04/gross-sees-helicopter-cash-for-economies-after-bashing-bankers

Gross Sees Helicopter Cash for Economies From Central Banks

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/28/bill-gross-makes-stock-picks.html

Bill Gross picks... stocks!

[Hoop]

Hmmm... BaaBaa nice rising wedge... too steep to be sustainable and the VIX at 14 infers not much trend volatility for a little while (30 days)..an interesting mix..eh ?...either a continuing straight line up or flat-lining?

Rising wedge reversal breakouts can be lousy shorting opportunities (Bulkowski (http://thepatternsite.com/risewedge.html)). This sort of says any break out may be more of a side way movement with pullback or two stopping any major downward trend volatility.....a plateauing out?..pause?... Therefore the low VIX makes a sudden downward crash type movement in the next month a lower (32%) probability happening..

Although VIX is an S&P500 instrument it works OK for the DOW as the S&P500 and DOW correlate very well..

VIX at 14(%) = 68% probability the S&P500 volatility will range between +3.46% and -3.46% ** for the next month period

** 14% / √12 = 3.46%

Wrote this in the 19th March and since then the DOW has ranged traded around 17450 - 18100 .... ~3.5%...nice:)...except 14% ÷ √12 = 4.04% not 3.46% Ha!!! :D..no one pick it up as wrong ..but it was close enough.

Recently the VIX has broken out of its 13-16 range and now around 21..
This indicates the DOW and S&P500 are going to be more volatile (21 ÷ √12 = 6.06%) within the next 21 days. (VIX broke out 10 days ago)

A 6% swing would present a breakout of the DOWs present trading range (17450 - 18100) ...a breakout would cause other market physics variables to come into play so the % rise or fall could end up being a lot more than ±6%..

On the DOW chart the Bollinger Bands are presently squeezed so a change of trend direction in the near future is indicated....For the last 3 months the DOW has been trendless, so the Million Dollar question.."Is the DOW going to go up and create another record high or down?"..

Trendless price lines on charts make TA indicators unreliable so Charting giving 50/50 odds isn't really much help ....In the media (as usual) we have the optimist chartists producing the indicators that only show upwards and the pessimistic chartists producing the indicators that show the downwards..

Brexit results tomorrow..so.. will the market rally or has it already bought the rumour and ready to sell the fact..

[Hoop]

Bollinger bands snapped...its down folks.. big time..

The DOW futures fell over 700 and has since recovered about 300 of that 700 and stablising...the recovery is back above the broken bull/bear support line at around the 19th May intraday low of 17331 and close of 17435...so if the DOW can hold above that bull/bear line (17435) then the bulls are still in control and the DOW not totally TA broken

[Valuegrowth]

I totally agree with you. In the short run, there could be more demand for defensive types of stocks particularly food and restaurants related stocks. Brexit is creating some great opportunity globally. It is time to go behind Brexit winners.

Bollinger bands snapped...its down folks.. big time..

The DOW futures fell over 700 and has since recovered about 300 of that 700 and stablising...the recovery is back above the broken bull/bear support line at around the 19th May intraday low of 17331 and close of 17435...so if the DOW can hold above that bull/bear line (17435) then the bulls are still in control and the DOW not totally TA broken

[Daytr]

Opportunity I would suggest. I bought the FTSE when was down 9%, got a 5% bounce & closed out. Got long the DOW after a pull back. Think the doom and gloom over Brexit is completely overstated. Obviously interest rates now stay low for longer and perhaps even lower than now. Equities more attractive. Mainland European indices I think are far more vulnerable than the UK or US.

[Valuegrowth]

Still bulls are alive and well. Next target is 19,000.

[macduffy]

This is the top!

https://image-store.slidesharecdn.com/2265812d-2c55-4050-9918-9f889433cfd4-original.jpeg

:cool:

[Daytr]

Well one thing that does normally foretell a top is thin trading & that's certainly what we are seeing. The Microsoft result was pretty stellar so probably extended the run a little.

[winner69]

Sell in May and go away ......so thy say

Thats why volumes are light?

But going to cost heaps more to buy back in October

[Baa_Baa]

Sell in May and go away ......so thy say

Thats why volumes are light?

But going to cost heaps more to buy back in October

Volumes are light because few companies posted stellar results, those that did were (just) enough to continue the index. Nothing about old wives tales or sayings, this is a toppy market with very few standout performers holding it up. VIX should tell the story soon enough, imo. Ripe for a plucking, have you checked the balance of shorts?

[Baa_Baa]

A weekly Bollinger would be nice, sipping on a glass of fine bubbly, but from a chart perspective the Bollinger bands are a key indicator. Any time the price moves towards and then away from the 2.5 standard deviations which are the upper and lower Bollinger bands, is time to take notice. DOW weekly takes a lot of the daily noise out, though this week it decided to pull away from the upper Bollinger band. This portends a topping with sideways and possibly downside to follow, perhaps a back test of the all time high breakouts. It is a caution signal. Don't ignore the Bollinger bands, they are very helpful indicators of highs and lows.

8182

[macduffy]

Sell in May and go away ......so thy say

Thats why volumes are light?

But going to cost heaps more to buy back in October

A case of lacklustre earnings still trumping negative interest rates.( Plse excuse the use of that word.)

[winner69]

A case of lacklustre earnings still trumping negative interest rates.( Plse excuse the use of that word.)

When it looks as if trumping is actually going to happen what you reckon will happen then?

[easy money]

A weekly Bollinger would be nice, sipping on a glass of fine bubbly, but from a chart perspective the Bollinger bands are a key indicator. Any time the price moves towards and then away from the 2.5 standard deviations which are the upper and lower Bollinger bands, is time to take notice. DOW weekly takes a lot of the daily noise out, though this week it decided to pull away from the upper Bollinger band. This portends a topping with sideways and possibly downside to follow, perhaps a back test of the all time high breakouts. It is a caution signal. Don't ignore the Bollinger bands, they are very helpful indicators of highs and lows.

8182
Dow 20000 by the end of the year....

[Hoop]

Dow 20000 by the end of the year....

and your reasonings are..?

[easy money]

and your reasonings are..?
massive money printing = low interest rates = rising sharemarkets = Dow 18000 and beyond...Gold will continue advance also.

[Hoop]

massive money printing = low interest rates = rising sharemarkets = Dow 18000 and beyond...Gold will continue advance also.

Easy Money... Gurufocus post arrived in my email this morning...here is the website address. http://www.gurufocus.com/news/429977/how-much-do-interest-rates-affect-the-markets-pe-ratio (http://www.gurufocus.com/news/429977/how-much-do-interest-rates-affect-the-markets-pe-ratio).

Ben Reynolds seems knowledgeable as he mentions (since 1971)...because before that, interest rates did not correlate with the Equity Market.

..therefore theoretically, interest rates is not a primary driver of the sharemarket....inflation is..It is important for sharemarket investors to remember their Theory as some time in the future when the FED (for reasons not yet known) may have to look towards other methods to smooth out (manipulate) market/economy volatility (gravitate away from Monetary Policy), when that happens the interest rate factor driving todays sharemarket may become less significant.

Haven't read his other work yet but it is here (http://www.gurufocus.com/ic/space.php?do=article&uid=217283&author=Ben+Reynolds)

[Biscuit]

massive money printing = low interest rates = ...

I'm not an economist so know nothing, but I would have guessed that massive money printing = high inflation = high interest rates ?

[bear]

Every chance of the Dow hitting some crazy numbers this year. Large tech stocks are powering ahead Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet & Facebook - some impressive results over the past few days. New highs for Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook. Was sweating a little on Amazon's numbers (you never know how spectacular the result will be) ... but very happy with the end result and nice gain after some shorters bailed in extended trading.

Even non tech stocks like J & J, Honeywell etc doing well and other super powered conglomerates

Financials and retailers (in general other than online like Amazon) will be the biggest drag on the DOW and this really because the margins are so low

and Im not a bear on the Dow

Bear

[Baa_Baa]

Who would know from a fundamental perspective? That has been screwed for many years, decades even, with economic theories all going to hell and monetary policy makers desperately trying to find ways to prop up economies and at the same time hide the incomprehensible sovereign debt overhang as a consequence. Better minds than mine can grapple with that.

In the meantime, TA shows that last weeks breakout from all time highs stumbled at weeks end, then followed through this week including yesterday a back test of the breakout. Fortunately for the bulls that test was positive and current price is still hovering above the previous all time high. Tonight (NZ time) will be interesting though as it does look like there's a slow leak in the DOW which is testing the bulls confidence.

Might be worthwhile looking into the the DOW shorts, from a historical perspective, where are they now and what is the shorts consensus position? This helps to to identify the short sell overhang who are anticipating (hoping) for a breakdown in the DOW because they make their money when it all turns to custard.

[Hoop]

BaaBaa quote..."Who would know from a fundamental perspective? That has been screwed for many years, decades even, with economic theories all going to hell...."

To bring the DOW into total perspective forget the economy and all the BS, smoke screens, and mirrors.... Investors have been discussing/arguing that for decades if not for centuries.......Think simple, think secular.

Back in 2006 the question was asked "Where do you think we're headed? The author had a good idea the DOW was entering two decades of slow share price growth...At the time the US economy was entering a boom..With that hindsight 10 years later we know the author was right..

OK..next question...Lets ask the same one now.."Where do you think we're headed? :D

http://www.ifa.bz/wp-content/uploads/100_year_dow_jones_chart.jpg

[Baa_Baa]

Nice chart, it says invest in the DOW anytime you like and in less than 25 years you'll be doing fine (on a historical basis) but in 100 years from now you'll be in clover. But I'll be pushing up daisies well before the 100 year windfall, maybe even before the 25 year. Sigh.

Interesting interpretation though that a bull market only begins when the highs of the previous bull market are exceeded. Basically it just says buy and wait. And hope you live long enough.

[kiora]

BaaBaa quote..."Who would know from a fundamental perspective? That has been screwed for many years, decades even, with economic theories all going to hell...."

To bring the DOW into total perspective forget the economy and all the BS, smoke screens, and mirrors.... Investors have been discussing/arguing that for decades if not for centuries.......Think simple, think secular.

Back in 2006 the question was asked "Where do you think we're headed? The author had a good idea the DOW was entering two decades of slow share price growth...At the time the US economy was entering a boom..With that hindsight 10 years later we know the author was right..

OK..next question...Lets ask the same one now.."Where do you think we're headed? :D

http://www.ifa.bz/wp-content/uploads/100_year_dow_jones_chart.jpg

So only 10 yrs before the next boom Hoop.Time to accumulate :sleep:

[Hoop]

So only 10 yrs before the next boom Hoop.Time to accumulate :sleep:
I'll wait until after the dip....patience ;)..(thats if I live long enough)...but if you look at our children/Grandchildren's future...their future may lie on stocks as ours were in property..eh?

[winner69]

Nice chart, it says invest in the DOW anytime you like and in less than 25 years you'll be doing fine (on a historical basis) but in 100 years from now you'll be in clover. But I'll be pushing up daisies well before the 100 year windfall, maybe even before the 25 year. Sigh.

Interesting interpretation though that a bull market only begins when the highs of the previous bull market are exceeded. Basically it just says buy and wait. And hope you live long enough.



It says be a stock picker during secular bear periods and hold while rising and sell when they start trending down. Capital preservation is key during periods when overall medium/long term market returns are expected to be low.

[Valuegrowth]

I can’t agree more. Dow and global stocks should stay in the bullish territory in the second half of this year as well. As I said before, still I didn't become a bear.

Every chance of the Dow hitting some crazy numbers this year. Large tech stocks are powering ahead Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet & Facebook - some impressive results over the past few days. New highs for Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook. Was sweating a little on Amazon's numbers (you never know how spectacular the result will be) ... but very happy with the end result and nice gain after some shorters bailed in extended trading.

Even non tech stocks like J & J, Honeywell etc doing well and other super powered conglomerates

Financials and retailers (in general other than online like Amazon) will be the biggest drag on the DOW and this really because the margins are so low

and Im not a bear on the Dow

Bear

[kiora]

I'll wait until after the dip....patience ;)..(thats if I live long enough)...but if you look at our children/Grandchildren's future...their future may lie on stocks as ours were in property..eh?

I haven't really focused on property. I'm more focused on stocks and have been for 30+ yrs.Far easier on time requirements,valuations and liquidity.
Dabbled in property but its just a PIB :)

[Hoop]

Every chance of the Dow hitting some crazy numbers this year..........
Bear
After the Brexit dip a rosy record breaking rally occurred..Reported earnings has dampened the euphoria a bit.

Some media are starting to bang the bear drums again....then along comes this interesting chart pattern..a possible continuation pattern...if the breakout is upward then we may see 20,000 in quick time...

Who cares what the fundamentals says when you have Janet and maybe Mr Trump at the helm..eh?...

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW%2004082016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW%2004082016.png.html)

[Hoop]

Update...Today saw all 3 Wall St indices breakout to another record high
DOW chart below

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW%2011082016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW%2011082016.png.html)

[Baa_Baa]

Update...Today saw all 3 Wall St indices breakout to another record high
DOW chart below

Astounding, but the TA did suggest it. Colin Twiggs noted the breakout potential a few days ago as well, and look where it is now. Clearly peace and prosperity have broken out in the world, all is good. Ride the wave.

[Valuegrowth]

Still DOW is unstoppable. My only worrying part is we don’t see rich valuation in some stocks. It is going to be one of the longest rally. It is possible to touch 19,000. However, it can touch even 20,000 according to the following link. Only time will tell us the true story.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-at-20000-in-a-year-is-now-the-consensus-forecast-2016-08-10

[winner69]

Astounding, but the TA did suggest it. Colin Twiggs noted the breakout potential a few days ago as well, and look where it is now. Clearly peace and prosperity have broken out in the world, all is good. Ride the wave.

They will ensure the 'wave' keeps going at least until Hilary is elected - she is the symbolic face of a 'recovering economy' (measured by dodgy job numbers and never-ending adjustments to quarterly GDP numbers) which ensure the money go round keeps going round

But one day .......

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stock-markets-apple-1.3763837

Apple shares hit 2016 high, bolstering Dow

[Baa_Baa]

Following the recent new highs, impressive, but then breakdown below the old high, DOW finds support on the steep high/low trend line. Will it hold? 17,100 says no. 18,350 retest old high says yes. 18,000 is the now battle line.

Weekly chart
8309

Zooming in to the Daily chart
8308

[Valuegrowth]

Yes Baa Baa 18000 is going to be battle line. I completely agree with you.

Support levels loom 18,000 for bullish traders to buy the dip. I believe bullish traders or investors will get some position near 18,000. My medium term target remains to the upside towards 19000 and it can stretch close to 20000.

Analysts have raised their price targets for Dow stocks in recent months because they expect earnings growth in the first six months of 2017.Dow could climb on the strength of a few key stocks and sectors.


http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/08/10/wall-streets-new-target-dow-20000/

Following the recent new highs, impressive, but then breakdown below the old high, DOW finds support on the steep high/low trend line. Will it hold? 17,100 says no. 18,350 retest old high says yes. 18,000 is the now battle line.

Weekly chart
8309

Zooming in to the Daily chart
8308

[Baa_Baa]

DOW pulled back perfectly Sept 22 from a test of the falling ST resistance down-trend line. Now it's either on the Feb-Jun rising support trend line (arithmetic scale), or broke down through that same support trend line (log scale). 18,000 support in play again.

[Valuegrowth]

You are absolutely right.

DOW pulled back perfectly Sept 22 from a test of the falling ST resistance down-trend line. Now it's either on the Feb-Jun rising support trend line (arithmetic scale), or broke down through that same support trend line (log scale). 18,000 support in play again.

[Valuegrowth]

Everybody has their own forecasts. We have to stay with our own estimation.

According to following link DOW should touch around 19000 by February or March 2017.

http://longforecast.com/stock/dow-jones-forecast.html

DOW JONES FORECAST FOR 2016 AND 2017

http://www.fxempire.com/indices/dj-30/forecast

Dow Jones Industrial Average 30 Forecast

[Valuegrowth]

There is a possibility that DOW can break 18,000. At least it should reach closer to it.

[Baa_Baa]

There is a possibility that DOW can break 18,000. At least it should reach closer to it.

Yes DOW30 has held gains on Futures today, currently 18025. Who knows what will happen tomorrow though.

[fungus pudding]

Yes DOW30 has held gains on Futures today, currently 18025. Who knows what will happen tomorrow though.

Clinton cleared from charges over emails, so Dow will lift.
Even bigger boost on Wednesday - NZ time - when Trump gets hammered.

[Daytr]

Had a dream run with all this pre-election volatility. Tripled my investment in the last month mostly trading the DOW, Gold, GPB & AUD/NZD cross.
Went big on the DOW twice around the lows in the last few weeks only to see big rallies including last night.
I'm now out except for a small posi in AUD/NZD & WTI.
Clinton wins we see another rally to sell into.
Trump wins, will stay clear until the dust settles.
Either way I don't see too much upside in these markets.