Dow

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/blog/live/2016/nov/09/stock-markets-on-edge-as-us-presidential-election-heads-for-tense-climax

[Joshuatree]

Dow futures keep going up now re up 150 from a slight negative start.

[blackcap]

At all time highs, Trump and Obama's conciliatory approach may be helping.

[Valuegrowth]

Finally,DOW hit all time high. My previous target was around 19000. As I said before these markets have more legs. But we cannot rule out volatility and sideway market on the way to its next target. More than markets, I am bullish on selected stocks. Global central banks cannot stay away from easy money policy yet. Most probably, it can happen in 2018.

Banks and construction stocks are in limelight now. But there are stocks in following areas as well. They should benefit from less regulation.

Food makers
Agricultural companies
Oil and gas companies

[Hoop]

Hmmm..It now seems the mid-summer rally resuming the Bull rally was no fluke...So much for the overcooked fundamentals and the institutional funds people winding down their exposure...The TA charting I'm using sees another round of good times..the Price target (trading target) signaled back in July2016 shows 20400...This signal was activated in mid July 4 months before the Presidential elections..So it seems it didn't matter who won..

I've added the Copper price as Winner recently bought the subject up in his 8th November 2016 post on the S&P500 thread...We did a lot of discussing about copper's role with the Equity cycles back in 2009..

Hoop - Copper on a roll the last few weeks

Good positive sign

No worries

I posted Russell Napier's copper connection back in 30th October 2008 and watched Copper's activity and then waited for the bull signal..The whole page is an interesting read especially Lizard's scenario table for the future (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets/page10)..remember when these posts were written 90% of the investment world were exclaiming doom & gloom, nearly all were emotionally drained and very pessimistic... On the 19th January 2009 TA signaled a copper breakout (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets/page11), this mean't in theory that within 6 weeks the DOW should bottom out and cycle reverse to Bull.

Back to the "now"..Although we are not experiencing a 3rd stage bear cycle we did have some sort of major bull market correction and perhaps the copper connection can loosely signal these corrections as well...It sort of happened in 2010 and 2011 corrections (see chart)....

Note of Caution referring to this post:..The copper/equity connection has a prediction rate of 100% accuracy when used correctly..The copper/equity connection and 100% correlation result was discovered during the analysis of 3rd stage Equity Bear Market cycles... and at no other stages of cycles.

Russell Napier's book "Anatomy of the Bear" discussed the Copper connection

(https://books.google.co.nz/books?id=DGQ9CwAAQBAJ&pg=PT350&lpg=PT350&dq=Russell+Napier+Copper&source=bl&ots=-EQK-mLJWI&sig=9CEqO9r1wAtcf_v9yyNBKgY6ZUM&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjJ5YX15aHQAhVDHJQKHVM6BLsQ6AEIUzAJ#v=on epage&q=Russell%20Napier%20Copper&f=false)http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/DOW%2011112016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/DOW%2011112016.png.html)

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets/page12

[Valuegrowth]

Thank you Hoop for your detailed analysis. It is very interesting.

Now some analysts and writers think : Is Copper the New Gold?

It is true commodity market is in big bear market but still there could be short term rally. Gold had some support in 2016.In China speculators bet heavily on things like Iron ore and eggs. For me 2017 is a different ball game. New opportunities should emerge in new bull markets.

I still see demand for selected stocks globally. British pound is another surprise winner. I didn’t become bear on pound like others. Similarly, I didn’t become bear on USD yet. On the other hand, I am heavily bearish on NZD and AUD now.

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/14/us-markets.html

Dow posts 6-day winning streak, closes at record high despite tech fall

[Valuegrowth]

Finally, MY initial target (19000) for DOW reached yesterday. Globally, other markets also should follow DOW during next four to six months. However, I expect some volatility as well. Global markets have more legs. Next great bull markets will come from less known and undervalued markets through out Asian pacific region and selected areas in other regions.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-up-as-oil-prices-rise-1479803109

Dow Closes above 19000 for First Time

Index on track to post stronger yearly performance than S&P 500 for first time since 2011

[Baa_Baa]

Three short weeks later, DOW 19,911 looks set for 20,000! Massive.

No worries.

[blackcap]

Three short weeks later, DOW 19,911 looks set for 20,000! Massive.

No worries.

Up 8.6% since the Trump election. Commentators saying the 20,000 is inevitable as there is a lot of momentum.

Those sitting on the sidelines waiting for the drop must be feeling sick. That said, its at the time that they pile in not to miss out, that is when to sell. Even on CNBC they are now saying its maybe time for the average joe punter to get back into stocks. (many left after 2008 and have missed out on a 200% gain)

[Hoop]

Three short weeks later, DOW 19,911 looks set for 20,000! Massive.

No worries.

I'm using S&P500 figures but the DOW correlates with the S&P500

The wow is.... analysts are predicting 2017 earnings to increase by 11.4%....est analysts consensual forward earnings $131.8 (8th Dec)
the massive is... Mr Market is already pricing this in and more...
Forward PE= Latest close 2274/131.8 = 17.25 on an increasing trend.. well above its average of 14.4...
Assumming Mr Market has also priced in the interest rate hike and the predicted rise in inflation (both negative pressures on Mr Market)

Recent history shows forward earnings predictions a year ahead have been far too optimistic ...Are predictions useful ?..see the history below

Some more history
back in 2007 before the big bear the forward PE was 1550/105 = 14.76
back in 2000 before the big bear the forward PE was ~25

No worries ..eh

[Hoop]

Chart of the Day
With the Dow quickly approaching the 20,000 milestone, today's chart provides some long-term perspective by illustrating the inflation-adjusted Dow since 1900 -- there are several points of interest. Take for example an unlucky buy-and-hold investor that invested in the Dow right at the dot-com peak of December 1999. A decade and a half later, the inflation-adjusted Dow is up a mere 20%. That is not altogether an impressive performance considering that 17 years have passed. On the other hand, take the investor who bought right at the end of the financial crisis. The inflation-adjusted Dow is up a significant 146% from its financial crisis lows -- not bad for a for a seven and a half year investment. More recently, the inflation-adjusted Dow has rallied and continues to make new all-time highs as it approaches a major 20,000 milestone.

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20161214.gif
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20161214.htm?H

[winner69]

DOW 25000 middle of next year - no worries

@TheStalwart: Staggering chart. Americans' optimism that stocks will rise just exploded higher in a way not seen since 1998.… https://t.co/NqsnpKV4kL

[winner69]

Jarred says inauguration day will be the market top in this cycle

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man

[Raz]

Jarred says inauguration day will be the market top in this cycle

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man

I go with that plus a couple of elements in the Senate confirmation hearings concerned me, so cashing up a large chunk of my US portfolio..no need to be greedy its been a amazing run.

[arc]

The 3 Month DOW displays a definite resistance to breaking 20K and now the 1 Month displays a slow decline since Jan-11.
Can Trump talk it up ...and will they really believe him. Is Trumps focus just going to be on whats good for his own back-pocket... and not the Nations.

[Hoop]

the 20000 has been cracked

The second longest Bull ever lives on......onwards and upwards.

[Raz]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/88779237/dow-hits-20000-thanks-to-trump-business-initiatives

Ha looks like I sold out too early...:-) Still with Trump it is now more clear who to reinvest with...

[Valuegrowth]

It closed above 20,000 for the first time.

the 20000 has been cracked

The second longest Bull ever lives on......onwards and upwards.

[macduffy]

Don't focus on the Dow. It's the S&P 500 that matters.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/dow-jones-at-20000-it-does-not-matter-fund-managers-say-20170108-gto0fg.html

[Hoop]

Don't focus on the Dow. It's the S&P 500 that matters.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/dow-jones-at-20000-it-does-not-matter-fund-managers-say-20170108-gto0fg.html

It depends on what you are trying to achieve..
...The S&P500 is great for short term costing or fundamental crystal ball gazing doing forward analysis of various kinds..
...The DOW for its longer term cyclical/secular trends and behaviour including its Theories
.
The media pushes it's own barrow in hyped up fashion and unfortunately the readers are guided into narrow thinking and go off half-cocked forming malformed deductions especially when the DOW/S&P500 suddenly do a short term correlated blip and go outside their Correlation coefficient "norm".

For the record..The DOW of 30 stocks performs nearly identically to the S&P of 500 stocks..I googled quickly to find the correlation coefficient between the two ...the daily percent change (deviation) is 0.96163 (http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/blog/sp-500-vs-djia-who-you-got)....1.0 is identical so DOW V S&P500 have very close to identical daily movements..

So why the sudden media drama??...My guess from googling is that the last 30 days the correlation coefficient has trended down to (https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/DIA--compareProfile--%5EGSPC)0.91 (https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/DIA--compareProfile--%5EGSPC) ..If I remember correctly from doing countless statistical analysis back in the days when pterodactyls still flew around in the skies >0.85 was considered highly significant correlation...so 0.91 is by no means a bad news DOW event that the media makes it out to be..

So when it comes to analysis or forming a base for a theory, or to correlate figures into a meaningful objectives, the longer the history/larger amounts of data the better the quality of analysis....With that in mind the DOW needs to keep functioning for as long as it is possible..for Centuries more preferably (data-wise)

The DOW was created back in 1894..the S&P500 was created in it's present form in 1957 (http://etfdb.com/equity-etfs/the-complete-history-of-the-sp-500-index/).. IMHO.. even though S&P500 analysis is being used more frequently than the DOW these days in refining Sharemarket Theory, the S&P500 still needs many more decades of data before it could safely replace the DOW and make the DOW irrelevant....In the meantime the DOW/S&P500 showing near identical movements the hypertheoretical reliability to be able to confirm each other during Wall ST cyclical corrections and reversals is very very important....Decades ago it was the DOW industrials /Dow transport confirmations...With the S&P500 becoming the more superior index it is now DOW/S&P500 confirmation or in some cases the Russell index is included in the confirmations as well..

[macduffy]

Yes, Hoop, it's true that the two indices pretty much track each other and that the Dow has the historical data argument on its side. But the fact remains that one follows 30 stocks and the other 500. For a clearer snapshot of market movements I'll go with the S&P.

I do appreciate your technical analysis - adds an important dimension to our understanding of the market.

:)

[Hoop]

Yes, Hoop, it's true that the two indices pretty much track each other and that the Dow has the historical data argument on its side. But the fact remains that one follows 30 stocks and the other 500. For a clearer snapshot of market movements I'll go with the S&P.

I do appreciate your technical analysis - adds an important dimension to our understanding of the market.

:)

For a clearer snapshot of market movements I'll go with the S&P.....Yeah sure, I do too, most of the "todays" stuff I do and read involves the S&P not the DOW...As most investors "live the moment" I would assume the S&P is their market of choice...and more companies in the index lessen any possible one company temporarily upsetting the indices...Mind you in saying that..Apple commands a large chunk of the S&P500 ...

[blackcap]

Another record high. It just keeps on going. When will this Bull end? Might go for another 4 years if they get their "phenomenal tax plan" in the states.....

[peat]

When will this Bull end?
As stated before I would suspect the SP will reach about 2500 based on the fifth wave approximating the same distance as the first wave.

[blackcap]

20,500 Boom another all time high!! DOW

[winner69]

Love this chart from 'chart of the day'

Inflation adjsuted DOW

Just where it should be and long way to the next resistance level

[Hoop]

Love this chart from 'chart of the day'

Inflation adjsuted DOW

Just where it should be and long way to the next resistance level

Yep...and it hits resistance every 35 years and support every 50 years or so ... by 2035 the DOW should reach it's low of 7000 ;):D.... but hang on it should also be due to hit resistance too at 40,000...WOW that's a giant crash..eh

[Valuegrowth]

At some point DOW should reach top in the current major uptrend.

[blackcap]

At some point DOW should reach top in the current major uptrend.

Wow 9th straight session record high... this just keeps on going.

[winner69]

Wow 9th straight session record high... this just keeps on going.

12 straight up days - from twitter

@TheStalwart: Uh oh. Last time we had a streak this long was 1987. And we all know what happened that year. #KnowYourHistory https://t.co/jmcz5hpeLM

[blackcap]

12 straight up days - from twitter

@TheStalwart: Uh oh. Last time we had a streak this long was 1987. And we all know what happened that year. #KnowYourHistory https://t.co/jmcz5hpeLM

No its different this time winner. you watch and see, it will be up tomorrow as well and that will be 13 straight record highs.
Its just going to keep on going up. ;)

[winner69]

No its different this time winner. you watch and see, it will be up tomorrow as well and that will be 13 straight record highs.
Its just going to keep on going up. ;)

This 'wall of worry' is very high so a lot more climbing to do I reckon

No worries here ......though Aaron's wait for the bargains seems a forlorn wait

[blackcap]

This 'wall of worry' is very high so a lot more climbing to do I reckon

No worries here ......though Aaron's wait for the bargains seems a forlorn wait

I feel sorry for Aaron, he might learn that timing the market is pretty much impossible. But yep the wall of worry... could keep going for a while yet but keeping watch myself as things are looking a bit stretched.

[Aaron]

I feel sorry for Aaron, he might learn that timing the market is pretty much impossible. But yep the wall of worry... could keep going for a while yet but keeping watch myself as things are looking a bit stretched.
I appreciate your pity.
I am supposed to be coming up with an investing plan and starting to spend time looking at annual reports so that I might have an idea when a company is a bargain, when the crash finally happens ((not long to go now) although Warren Buffett doesn't share my pessimism but what does he know)
As of today just procrastinating and falling further behind financially.
Sorry to hear that Winner69 can't afford honey now that it is too expensive my woes pale into insignificance compared to the plight of the baby boomer generation.

[peat]

I appreciate your pity.
I am supposed to be coming up with an investing plan and starting to spend time looking at annual reports so that I might have an idea when a company is a bargain, when the crash finally happens ((not long to go now) although Warren Buffett doesn't share my pessimism but what does he know)
As of today just procrastinating and falling further behind financially.


Aaron - you should at least dip your toes in , though no need to dive headfirst with ALL the swag. Smallish entries over a period of time will allow you to develop your investing skills without losing your shirt even if there is big bang.

I agree that values are stretched in general but there are always some interesting prospects to be found and if not true value then at least good growth possibilities.
Pushpay would be my recommendation. Buy on dips.

(PS I know this comment is not relevant to the DOW)

[winner69]

First paragraph from a The Australian article


Donald Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday tonight (early Wednesday afternoon AEDT) will either put some foundations under the “Trump Bump” that has inflated equity markets and the US dollar since his victory last year or demolish them. There’s trillions of dollars now riding on how the markets receive the address


Didn't bother reading the rest as the writer must be climbing the wall of worry

No worries

But if Trump gets too enthusiastic will Janet 'repond' and have a few rate increases.

[Valuegrowth]

Markets were moving with all of worries. Even overlooked cheap markets such as Russia, Brazil and Hungary also delivered big gains in 2016. There is always something to worry. After DOW and other extended bullish markets, there could be bullish opportunities in overlooked markets next. I strongly believe current overlooked dirt-cheap markets also could deliver big gain in 2017.

[winner69]

No its different this time winner. you watch and see, it will be up tomorrow as well and that will be 13 straight record highs.
Its just going to keep on going up. ;)


It's on fire at the moment

Even Janet wn't be able to stop this

DOW 25,000 soon

No worries

[Baa_Baa]

Twiggs citing Bulkowski's falling widening wedge as 87% probabilty of upside breakout.

Strange he didn't mention TMF falling to almost zero,

[arc]

Approximately 5 days of both DOW and S&P crawling sideways
And nasdaq has been going sideways for a month.
where to from here.

Break-up
Break-out
Break-down

[Baa_Baa]

Twiggs citing Bulkowski's falling widening wedge as 87% probabilty of upside breakout.

Strange he didn't mention TMF falling to almost zero,

8 weeks soon, all down. DOW coming off the boil.

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKBN1AK1A9?il=0

Dow chalks up eighth record close in a row

[Valuegrowth]

My estimated target met. Dow hit 23000 for the first time. Will markets fall going forward? I am bearish on markets now especially on extended stocks but still I have faith on great value stocks and attractive defensive stocks.

[macduffy]

My estimated target met. Dow hit 23000 for the first time. Will markets fall going forward? I am bearish on markets now especially on extended stocks but still I have faith on great value stocks and attractive defensive stocks.

A lot has happened in the last couple of months with the DJIA now looking determined to hit 25000. Don't they know that Santa's been and taken his Rally home for another year!

:scared:

[Baa_Baa]

A lot has happened in the last couple of months with the DJIA now looking determined to hit 25000. Don't they know that Santa's been and taken his Rally home for another year!

:scared:

One could say that was a prescient post macduffy, so soon after it looks like 25,000 is a decent support at the 50MA, another 500 points below here, assuming that holds. Amazing to see the local punters reacting to the downturn like it's a one-day reversal and bargain time, so buy! Probably never seen a decent market correction or rout which unfolds over weeks or months. Not saying this will, but still interesting behaviours.

[kiora]

Yes interesting BB.Sold some today phew,pay back some OD.First time in quite a while.

[Baa_Baa]

Interesting that the Trumpet holds market strength so dear to his success and re-election, then apparently puts that to the sword declaring a ramp from 10% to 25% tariff for $200 billion worth of trade with China, sending the DOW futures into a tailspin currently off 550 points leading into the US open markets.

Just a bluff by Trump and a buying opportunity as local markets react, or is he shafted the market and his re-election hopes? Either way, the market reacts quickly and violently, if futures hold on current sentiment, tomorrow looks grim for world markets and locally that inevitably follow.

[BeeBop]

He has been a trader’s dream this past several months, many have done well out of his tweets. I am not a trader so have had to ride the tweets out. Interesting to watch that as of into the late NYSE morning....the Dow has recovered about half of its initial fall...who knows what the afternoon will hold....last November/December the falls and gains were bigger....maybe this will get bigger if the talks truely stall, or maybe, it will all ping if everything works out.

[blackcap]

Interesting that the Trumpet holds market strength so dear to his success and re-election, then apparently puts that to the sword declaring a ramp from 10% to 25% tariff for $200 billion worth of trade with China, sending the DOW futures into a tailspin currently off 550 points leading into the US open markets.

Just a bluff by Trump and a buying opportunity as local markets react, or is he shafted the market and his re-election hopes? Either way, the market reacts quickly and violently, if futures hold on current sentiment, tomorrow looks grim for world markets and locally that inevitably follow.

I think you will find his re-election chances will be fine either way. Lowest unemployment since 1969 in the US currently, 263k jobs created last quarter (or was it month) and the Dow up 40% odd since his election. He is polling better now than he did on election day 2016 and the markets are pricing in a Trump victory in 2020.
Heaps of other achievements like ISIS defeated (something Obama did not want to do or could not do) seemed so simple in hindsight, many court judges appointed and the Senate keeps confirming them (that is why Trump put emphasis on winning the Senate not the House), Black and Hispanic unemployment at record lows too. The US just keeps on winning.
Gallup - Presidential job approval at this point in the first term:
Carter 37
Reagan 43
HW Bush 76
Clinton 51
W Bush 70
Obama 44
Trump 46

Suddenly Trump is higher than Carter, Reagan, and Obama in approval via Gallup. Pretty stunning considering where Trump's approval has been.

[fungus pudding]

I think you will find his re-election chances will be fine either way. Lowest unemployment since 1969 in the US currently, 263k jobs created last quarter (or was it month) and the Dow up 40% odd since his election. He is polling better now than he did on election day 2016 and the markets are pricing in a Trump victory in 2020.
Heaps of other achievements like ISIS defeated (something Obama did not want to do or could not do) seemed so simple in hindsight, many court judges appointed and the Senate keeps confirming them (that is why Trump put emphasis on winning the Senate not the House), Black and Hispanic unemployment at record lows too. The US just keeps on winning.
Gallup - Presidential job approval at this point in the first term:
Carter 37
Reagan 43
HW Bush 76
Clinton 51
W Bush 70
Obama 44
Trump 46

Suddenly Trump is higher than Carter, Reagan, and Obama in approval via Gallup. Pretty stunning considering where Trump's approval has been.

Indeed. A truly wonderful, model president whom Americans can be extremely proud of. :scared:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/112510887/trump-wouldve-been-charged-with-obstruction-were-he-not-president

[blackcap]

Indeed. A truly wonderful, model president whom Americans can be extremely proud of. :scared:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/112510887/trump-wouldve-been-charged-with-obstruction-were-he-not-president

Ah yes a Stuff story on Trump. Let me guess, um CNN, The Washington Post, NY Times? One of those 3 no doubt. Not worthy of the paper it is printed on. No bias there surely.

[SBQ]

... The US just keeps on winning.
Gallup - Presidential job approval at this point in the first term:
Carter 37
Reagan 43
HW Bush 76
Clinton 51
W Bush 70
Obama 44
Trump 46

Suddenly Trump is higher than Carter, Reagan, and Obama in approval via Gallup. Pretty stunning considering where Trump's approval has been.

and there is no shortage of people (in my circle) that keep calling Trump an "Idiot". I refrain my views and discussions among these people because sometimes it's better to talk to a wall than to step by step, explain things.

[Hoop]

Stock-index futures extend gains after data showing US lost 20.5 million jobs in April (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-index-futures-extend-gains-after-data-showing-us-lost-205-million-jobs-in-april-2020-05-08?mod=mw_latestnews)

Back in my young days if I wrote this sentence in my 101 economics exam I would have got an E..The market and everyone else calls Trump an idiot..From where I view things it's kinda like the pot calling the kettle black..

[Entrep]

Bad news = up
Good news = up

The market is not the economy

[value_investor]

A bit of a head scratcher here. Do they just let companies go out of business that are inevitably going to go out of business anyways? The FED says no. Its a great story of kicking the can further down the road.

The Fed are buying junk bonds, propping up these companies at the moment. A couple examples, Gamestop who reported a drop of 25% during December ended quarter. Same with Ford who are on the verge of going out, reporting a loss during the December quarter which is the strongest quarter for car markers traditionally.

If a company can't make money during the greatest bull market in history then propping them up to survive for a few more years is all the FED is doing. A lot of retail investors who are new in the game are about to get whacked I feel.

[SBQ]

A bit of a head scratcher here. Do they just let companies go out of business that are inevitably going to go out of business anyways? The FED says no. Its a great story of kicking the can further down the road.

The Fed are buying junk bonds, propping up these companies at the moment. A couple examples, Gamestop who reported a drop of 25% during December ended quarter. Same with Ford who are on the verge of going out, reporting a loss during the December quarter which is the strongest quarter for car markers traditionally.

If a company can't make money during the greatest bull market in history then propping them up to survive for a few more years is all the FED is doing. A lot of retail investors who are new in the game are about to get whacked I feel.

The US fed is keep the stock market up "at all costs" and they will keep printing until the virus is over. It's not an issue of valuation but rather, to maintain companies to stay operating and keep jobs going. What keeps the USD currency strong? Well, it's due to other nations are doing the exact same thing; oh not all currencies are the same meaning countries that try to print their way out of this crisis will have a worse effect on their economy than if the US did the same thing.

On the public end, the US is in an entirely different position due to their high disposable income. Meaning if a person were to start a business in the US, they would be more likely to succeed than to do the exact same business in a place say like NZ or in a bigger place like the EU. This is exactly why capital inflows continue to go into the US. If you were a bank, who would you prefer to lend to? A socialist, high taxed nation where the likelihood of the businesses to succeed is less? Or to a highly capitalistic place such as the USA where profits can still be maintained, even at the cost of the people that live there?

[GTM 3442]

I hold some US government debt via some ETFs. The US is dependent on inflows of foreign capital to roll over and refinance it's existing government debt, and so is forced to pay more than others.

But I must admit that the increasing talk of what should happen to the squazzabazillions of US government debt held by China is starting to make me a little apprehensive.

[SCOTTY]

Dow up 246 points overnight. Could suggest a favourable New Year start for the NZX tomorrow :)

[Joshuatree]

https://twitter.com/StreetBomber/status/1479137921001213956?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1479137921001213956%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html1479137921001213956

[Bobdn]

https://twitter.com/StreetBomber/status/1479137921001213956?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1479137921001213956%7Ctwgr% 5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html1479137921001213956

That was an excellent video, very funny. I did sell 25 per cent of my oil holding a while back to take some profit but still hold OIH, IXC and VDE. OIH has been disappointing but the others have been spectacular over the last year. I'm going to have to take more profits at some stage but when?

I think Biden is great for oil prices as well. Hopefully we'll see more restrictions on drilling in the future. And as long as OPEC remains disciplined, who knows, the good times could keep on rolling...BUT oil has not been great to me overall over the last 6 or 7 years...I have to remind myself of that.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/biden-administration-scrap-trump-plan-wider-alaska-oil-drilling-2022-01-11/

[kiora]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/volatility-gauge-flashes-bullish-p-094021053.html
"A VIX curve inversion “more often than not is an indication the selloff is approaching a near-term bottom” as the equity market digests stress, said Susquehanna International Group derivatives strategist Chris Murphy."

[ynot]

Dow is only down 12% on the year, Nasdaq is down 30%. Is the Dow going to hold ?

[BobbyMorocco]

Dow is only down 12% on the year, Nasdaq is down 30%. Is the Dow going to hold ?

Yeah it makes sense. It's usually the case that small caps get hit first and large caps get hit last but in a proper bear pretty much everything gets mauled eventually. Looking at the charts, it would appear, that as of this week, the Dow has also decided to join the other US indices in a stage 4 decline. More pain to come?

[kiora]

Who knows?
"Mr. Big Short: Fed May do a 180 on Interest Rates"
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/michael-burry-fed-reverse-rates?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

[kiora]

Contra deals. A bob each way or not? Not that I invest this way myself, but.....
"S&P 500: The Bottom Is Already In"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521345-s-and-p-500-bottom-is-already-in?mailingid=28247423&messageid=must_reads&serial=28247423.345239&source=email_must_reads&utm_campaign=Must+Read+July+1%2C+2022+noPremium&utm_content=seeking_alpha&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads
" We are now in the unfavorable months for the stock market; June - October. There is a lot of talk about a bear market, recession, etc. Is the bear market over or is it just beginning? I don't know. I just try to follow price and the trend. Right now, the trend for equities and bonds remains down. I will monitor the markets for the month of July and then reallocate, if necessary, at the end of the month."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521335-current-view-s-and-p-500-index-july-2022-edition?mailingid=28247423&messageid=must_reads&serial=28247423.345239&source=email_must_reads&utm_campaign=Must+Read+July+1%2C+2022+noPremium&utm_content=seeking_alpha&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4521428-q3-outlook-for-stocks-bullish-into-peak-inflation-narrative?mailingid=28247423&messageid=must_reads&serial=28247423.345239&source=email_must_reads&utm_campaign=Must+Read+July+1%2C+2022+noPremium&utm_content=seeking_alpha&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads

[Baa_Baa]

DOW appears to have put in a low during October 22, bullish rebound up through the large (E)MA’s and the down trend line from the high, back tested both for a higher low, and off to a solid end of year and start of 2023.

Chart here (https://invst.ly/zzfoq), notably this action is around the 61.8% Fib retrace from the ATH to Low. Up 17% from the lows, to being down only 9% from ATH, previously down 22%.

Too early to call a reversion to Bull market, but looking for support to hold and a new higher high would be encouraging. Markets are forward looking, they say.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZqJZ7UzRiE

[Valuegrowth]

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-live-updates-march-9-2023-135006552.html