PPP = Cash and they blew it!

[tricha]

WELL, it's ASX listed right and I only hold OZ listed companies, bought in today, too much cash coming in at US $130 + for this quarter, Maitland ready to strike ? = 50 cents, otherwise I guess we will just boggie on the back of Tui.

And there is the added bonus of a takeover on this bargin basement price.
.................................................. ..................................................

Flogged of Sharescene ;)
PPP - Revised Valuation

Sunday June 22, 2008 by X (http://wacq.wordpress.com/author/waterstone/)

Updated for financial position as at 31st December 2007.













http://wacq.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/ppp-220608.pdf (http://wacq.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/ppp-220608.pdf)

TAPIS price assumptions revised upward
0.90 flat USD/AUD cross-rate used
Interest revenue and expense schedules added
Discount rate adjusted to 10% due to de-risking
8.00% cost of debt and 6.50% rate for cash used
Zero value attributed to Maitland and other projects
Cash retention (i.e. 0% dividend payout) policy assumed
Valuation: $0.358

P.S Bermuda likes it, thats a bonus:)

[bermuda]

WELL, it's ASX listed right and I only hold OZ listed companies, bought in today, too much cash coming in at US $130 + for this quarter, Maitland ready to strike ? = 50 cents, otherwise I guess we will just boggie on the back of Tui.

And there is the added bonus of a takeover on this bargin basement price.
.................................................. ..................................................

Flogged of Sharescene ;)
PPP - Revised Valuation

Sunday June 22, 2008 by X (http://wacq.wordpress.com/author/waterstone/)

Updated for financial position as at 31st December 2007.


http://wacq.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/ppp-220608.pdf (http://wacq.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/ppp-220608.pdf)

TAPIS price assumptions revised upward
0.90 flat USD/AUD cross-rate used
Interest revenue and expense schedules added
Discount rate adjusted to 10% due to de-risking
8.00% cost of debt and 6.50% rate for cash used
Zero value attributed to Maitland and other projects
Cash retention (i.e. 0% dividend payout) policy assumed
Valuation: $0.358

P.S Bermuda likes it, thats a bonus:)

Tricha, that was a nice touch. Thanks mate. Hey PPP is set to go. Dont ask me to do a spread sheet. I just know. Been badly treated for a silly multitude of reasons.

Set to go.

[Dr_Who]

What are they gonna to with all that cash?

I have exposure with my holding in NZO, but would like to know what they will do with all that cash before I invest.

[JBmurc]

From Oil&gas weekly

by june next year PPP if it hasn’t done anything reckless in the meantime or been
taken over, could have over $200 million in cash alone.


Got back in at 26.5c

[FrankEd]

What are they gonna to with all that cash?

I have exposure with my holding in NZO, but would like to know what they will do with all that cash before I invest.

Thats a damn good question - the answer at the moment seems like "nothing, we like to just look at the numbers on our monthly account balance"...

This question seems to pop up all the time on HC and the answer normally is nothing because the company has a skeleton management team... But hey DYOR and let us know what you come up with.

I'd like to see them take on some other projects!

[JBmurc]

well a some decent farm-ins wouldn't be silly with the likes of TAP,NZO etc

[tricha]

well a some decent farm-ins wouldn't be silly with the likes of TAP,NZO etc

I'm betting NZO will take them, all that cash from the options rolling in, but they better be quick ;)

As it is the quick or the dead in this game at the moment.

[Dr_Who]

Can someone confirm net cash holding for PPP?

I have $69m at last quarter reporting, but the research report shows $45m with debt of $30m.

[tim23]

Tricha - I'm with you on that people keep saying NOG sold out of PPP a while back (they have x2) but times are different now and they have lots of cash (and even more next week I think after the options are exercised).

[Corporate]

As a shareholder of NZO I wouldn't mined they picked up PPP for anywhere close to there current MC!

[Hoop]

From Oil&gas weekly

by june next year PPP if it hasn’t done anything reckless in the meantime or been
taken over, could have over $200 million in cash alone.


Got back in at 26.5c

Just including tui only and assume (to keep things simple) constant flowrate they receive after all expenses,tax etc about $24M/quarter.
Relates to 4c/share/quarter capital.



.
Financial Highlights as at 31 March 2008 (unaudited)
Assets:
Cash held

A$69.6m
Receivables for oil sales

$12.9m
Tui oil inventory

40,900 barrels
Obligations:
Tui project loan (US14.13m)

A$15.4m
Tui FPSO bank letter of credit(US$10m)

$10.9m
Accrued royalty taxes

$ 9.9m


Probably have $105M cash with $35M debt by 30th June 2008 Full year

4x24M = 96M extra by June 2009 (assuming tui only + interest calculations only)
JBMurc $200M is close.

[tricha]

Just including tui only and assume (to keep things simple) constant flowrate they receive after all expenses,tax etc about $24M/quarter.
Relates to 4c/share/quarter capital.



.
Financial Highlights as at 31 March 2008 (unaudited)
Assets:
Cash held

A$69.6m
Receivables for oil sales

$12.9m
Tui oil inventory

40,900 barrels
Obligations:
Tui project loan (US14.13m)

A$15.4m
Tui FPSO bank letter of credit(US$10m)

$10.9m
Accrued royalty taxes

$ 9.9m


Probably have $105M cash with $35M debt by 30th June 2008 Full year

4x24M = 96M extra by June 2009 (assuming tui only + interest calculations only)
JBMurc $200M is close.

The way I am counting it for today.

4250 barrels a day to PPP

x $136 US a barrel

NZ $ .76

= turnover of NZ $765,000 a day

Lets hope the decline takes the long road home!

[JBmurc]

Can't believe PPP isn't back round the 30c ASX -esp as NZO is going great today

Hold both

[Dr_Who]

r

4x24M = 96M extra by June 2009 (assuming tui only + interest calculations only)
JBMurc $200M is close.

If yours and JBMurc's numbers are correct, then NZO can buy out PPP at AU35 cents = $200m which they can recover by june 2009 and get the other drilling assets and future cashflow for free. What a bargain!

[JBmurc]

If yours and JBMurc's numbers are correct, then NZO can buy out PPP at AU35 cents = $200m which they can recover by june 2009 and get the other drilling assets and future cashflow for free. What a bargain!

yep sure is and if maitland turn out commercial another bonus for NZO
PPP- should put out the for sale sign if not NZO I'm sure someone will pay at least 200m for PPP if I could raise 200m I'd buy it then merge with STX

[neopole]

some how i cant see investors, speculators and punters giving their shares away for 34 cents if a take over offer is put on the table.
there is too much cash rolling in for such a low offer.

[Dr_Who]

Ok, joined the club and bought some PPP today. :)

Market cap of $158m @ 27 cents with potential for $200m cash by june 2009 is a no brainer. Come june next year cash holding will exceed market cap and the other assets and future cashflow is a freebie.

[Sharp737]

Have you noticed whenever there are announcements on Tui etc that the PPP announcement is only a fraction of what NZOG's is?

You have to wonder...and even announcements for Maitland from PPP are very "subdued" when compared to TAP's announcements on Maitland.

My question is: Is PPP a T/O target by NOG or AWE or whoever/merger/whatever and is that the reason why PPP's announcements always seem to be "behind" NOG's or TAP's?
Has anyone else noticed this announcement "phenomenon?"

Just wondering....the cash is mounting and NOG's average price for Tui oil is US98 till now so PPP's would be roughly the same = 10% 14m bbl = 1.4m bbl = approx US$140M before tax, royalties & costs. Leaves a lot of cash!

Sharp

[Dr_Who]

Hmmm... funny how someone is just slamming down the sp of PPP in aussie.

Cant help myself gonna have to pick up more shares today.

[Dr_Who]

If there is a T/O offer for PPP, would it be in $NZ or $AU?

[JBmurc]

-Yet another day of PPP Sholders selling there holding like Oil was dropping ??NZO surges ahead PPP stays put at 26.5 with no buyers willing to pay 27c for an Oil producer worth min 35c currently with alot of talk on CNBC of Oil going past 150 to 170 likely over the next 6months

[JBmurc]

big buyer some 800k very soon 27c-27.5c

[tricha]

big buyer some 800k very soon 27c-27.5c

PPP is on the Opes list , I am wondering if it is ANZ that is slowly putting shares onto the market.???

[JBmurc]

PPP is on the Opes list , I am wondering if it is ANZ that is slowly putting shares onto the market.???

yeah to the disdain of the shareholders having ANZ selling there shares

-even a mate whose planning on buying 800,000 27c today is getting stuffed round by his broker telling him the ask price is 42c Dumbass brokers

[Crypto Crude]

Hey Tricha,
I remember seeing a valuation on Pan At 30cents...
That was before Oil rose 30-40%, and before there were a bunch of upgrades on reserves...
... valuation at 35-36c you reckon...
I was thinking of 40-45cents...
I guess market is putting major Discount on this company as it has no other major direction...
If Pan becomes too expansive it will likely spend all its Tui cashflow and have nothing to show for it...
As an investor, You would want profits after tax to be paid out 100% as dividends, and company to liquidate itself after all Tui revenues are collected...
Pan Pac Pet Got lucky, they have little else...
...
I hope others are right in saying NZO should take this company over...
looks like easy returns to be made...
Personally Im shooting for something alittle higher in performance than Pan... went all in at 11c and sold out at 17c, felt like that happened years ago...
Man-If you stick to the Plan, you cant go wrong with Pan...
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

I totally agree that PPP is massively undervalued...
tricha, You are right this is a cash cow...
Buy this stock, and send 2% of your total returns to him...they dont come much closer to a sure thing than this....
later...
:cool:
.^sc

[upside_umop]

hey guys,

yes ppp is definately a cash cow...my first share i ever bought and still hold after both set options take ups! i bought more about 2 weeks ago @ 0.27 on asx.

i have an interesting valuation, which is food for thought really.

on nzo thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5112&page=271), i posted a valuation by new zealand first capital..they stated nzog share of tui was valued at a dcf of 1.05 per share...this would make ppp share of tui look like this:


Value of Tui - In NZD - At NZFC valuation

Value per share to NZOG 1
Shares on issue 400
Valuation tui 400
PPP equiv = NZOG tui value*(10/12.5) 320

Add Cash bank 130
Less Loans 50
Total worth 400
Shares on issue 588
NZD value per share 0.680272109


Value of Tui - In NZD - Second valuation

Value per share to NZOG 0.8
Shares on issue 400
Valuation tui 320
PPP equiv = NZOG tui value*(10/12.5) 256

Add Cash bank 130
Less Loans 50
Total worth 336
Shares on issue 588
NZD value per share 0.571428571


The first valuation uses NZFC of 1.05 and the second uses 0.80 per share.

I think they may have got it wrong as when you add up their valuations, it equals 2.30, not the $2 they state. however, oil has gone up more (they use $90, some brokers use $100), reserves have gone up (they use 45 millions), you make your decision...they do use EBITDA however..not NPAT. hmmm

So I think around 55-65 cps nzd is about fair or aud at 0.45-0.55...definately a BUY

[tricha]

I totally agree that PPP is massively undervalued...
tricha, You are right this is a cash cow...
Buy this stock, and send 2% of your total returns to him...they dont come much closer to a sure thing than this....
later...
:cool:
.^sc

Thanks guys, a sure thing.:p

I have a question to ask u Shrewd, how come u have not bought back into them ?

It will be good to catch up with you guys at the next share conference. Actually we should call it the oil & gas conference.;)

Lets face it, invest in anything else and u r Screwd ;)

[Dr_Who]

Thanks for the valuation Upside.

FirstNZ has upgraded NZO to $2.40 valuation. I think most analyst value the tui at around $90-100bbl which is very conservative. I think tui could be value higher due to the fact they are pumping out max levels with oil prices north of $130. After 2009 Tui production decreases. Assume oil stays above $130 average for 2008-2009, then PPP should have cash in the bank of around $200m.

Tricha, how much PPP shares do ANZ still hold?

[Crypto Crude]

tricha-
I have a question to ask u Shrewd, how come u have not bought back into them ?


Well Id have to send you the 2% eah...:D...
haha... actually, most of the time when I want to buy something I have to sell somthing else to buy it... I had to sell VPEO around the 6c mark to buy RPM under 7c...at that time I really liked the look of roma, and Vic pet was and still is getting held back from market perception of management...
what I should have done was sold AKK to fund 'growing roma'...
austin have now drilled 20 successful wells but are now having unforseen stimulation problems...Each successfully stimulated well is worth $5 mill resale value.. drilling 200 over the next few years...
All stocks I hold have big leverage, PPP does not...
When Im a grand-dad, then I will settle down and get my first dividend cheque with the likes of NZO...
With PPP, that 40-45c... or as Upside down said 45-55c valuation only comes into play when most of the revenues have been collected... The market is discounting every oiler as those stocks are being torn between falling markets and rising prices... On CNBC they reckon US oilers are currently priced around $70 US per barrel... so very very cheap, pretty much half price oilers...

To be completely honest PPP is completely boring, I dont believe that management could turn these TUI revenues into something better again, and theres no challenge investing into this stock...
I dont have the patience for PPP, I had my time with it....
Theres no leverage for multi baggers here, im chasing bigger dreams, thats always been my goal...

If I wanted sure fire returns I would have put it all in NZO or this one, but the dream is too chase returns that are alittle more than what these sorts of stocks could offer, eg, AZA, AWE, woodside, STO, NZO... Because of that, I could only allow myself to trade nzood... NZO will one day be a $3 plus stock... I have only invested in stocks over $1 three times, (AED, MEO, URA).... you would not think one of them was once a dollar plus share..:D:D...sold that one at 50cents...
...
catch you at the Oil meeting...
:cool:
.^sc

[upside_umop]

hey shrewdy,

agree, a boring(ish) stock..but, easy money over the next year. i wouldnt think 100% isnt out of the question....so far ppp is majorly undervalued on just tui...what about their other leads...

the jv partners have got a few leads. toke, adjacent to maui, kakapo, matuku north and south, hector south which will make for an interesting 2009 jv drilling campaign...

they also got maitland too...dont know too much about it, a few are confident however.

not all doom and gloom for them i dont think, they were good enough to get this far and will go a lot further imo..but like any stock, there will be a time to pull out.

[tricha]

On CNBC they reckon US oilers are currently priced around $70 US per barrel... so very very cheap, pretty much half price oilers...

catch you at the Oil meeting...
:cool:
.^sc

Thanks for your honest reply Shrewdy and yes till the next oil meeting.


Key point Shrewd, The market is discounting every oiler as those stocks are being torn between falling markets and rising prices... On CNBC they reckon US oilers are currently priced around $70 US per barrel... so very very cheap, pretty much half price oilers...

It is exactly like it for ASX oilers, they are still reflecting a $70 oil price and a bear market.
Watch this space in four weeks, all will be revealed.

I guess being a young buck like you, taking risks with high gain\ high risk is the way to go.
I failed recently at it, GOG, DLS and NWE, all the holes were dusters :( so I changed to cash cows mainly, I do not mind 100% in one year.

This book would serve you well.
Lessons from the Greatest Stock Traders of All Time (Paperback)
by John Boik (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url?%5Fencoding=UTF8&search-type=ss&index=books&field-author=John%20Boik) (Author) "Jesse Livermore was born on July 26, 1877 in Massachusetts..."

[LIO]

Thanks tricha, for the reference to John Boik. I notice he has also written some interesting books on the use of natural compounds in cancer therapy.

[FrankEd]

Good to see this is finally making some steady progress after all the tax loss selling (??, not that this would've been a loss for many... and all the NZO conversions...) Hope to see the 0.30's again while awaiting the ann. on TUI upgrade.

[COLIN]

Good to see this is finally making some steady progress after all the tax loss selling (??, not that this would've been a loss for many... and all the NZO conversions...) Hope to see the 0.30's again while awaiting the ann. on TUI upgrade.
?????????????
Doubt if we can expect another reserves announcement for a while yet. There was one just a few days ago.

[Taijon]

Today's edition of Money Morning, a free email sendout that is an offshoot of another Australian publication, Daily Reckoning, has a chartist's interpretation of what is happening with PPP. The article follows below. Unfortunately I can't get the charts to reproduce in this post - someone else may be able to do it. Anyway according to this guy everything points to a strong movement up over the next little while. Hope he is right!!!!!!

An Oil Junior with More Momentum Than Crude…
By Gabriel Andre
The energy sector in the Aussie market continues to outstrip other industries. Crude hit an all time-high of US$143 in New York last night. We see a few oil juniors moving with it. Pan Pacific Petroleum (ASX:PPP) is one stock that can keep this up.
The stock has dug itself a nice little channel, trending upwards. Sellers have tried to push PPP outside this channel a couple of times. They’ve done nothing more than create false break-outs. They couldn’t establish momentum.

That’s really the story of the energy sector at the moment: momentum. Selling in hope of a correction is like stepping in front of a freight train, hoping to find a dollar on the tracks. These false break-outs on PPP’s chart are typical traps for short-term traders. Don’t fall into one of them.

CHART 1

No…instead…look at the company’s upside potential. Between points H and E on the chart, the stock added 49%. That’s a feel-good gain for less than two months work.
Since then it has corrected. We don’t think it’ll go all the way back to the trend’s resistance line though. Take a look at how Fibonacci traders have treated it.

CHART 2

That 61.8% Fibonacci level is now a strong intermediary support. PPP has consolidated from there. With that support underneath it, a few indicators argue for the next leg of profits.
The MACD just crossed its signal line. Take note of that. The MACD has given off good signals like clockwork for PPP. We don’t expect that to change now.
The Stochastic Momentum Index is also bullish. It’s a similar story. The trend is up, and it just crossed the signal line. There’s a good chance selling in this stock has finished.
Keep tabs on where PPP closes today. If it’s up, that’s as good a confirmation as you’re going to get. In that case, it’d probably move on to test resistance at 34 cents.
Good investing,
Gabriel Andre
Money Morning
2 July 2008

[FrankEd]

?????????????
Doubt if we can expect another reserves announcement for a while yet. There was one just a few days ago.

Wishful thinking! ha ha... no but really, i've no idea what i was thinking this morning. Guess all the red stocks that i own was getting to my head and i was hoping at least one of the one's i own was going to be ST positive!

[COLIN]

Today's edition of Money Morning, a free email sendout that is an offshoot of another Australian publication, Daily Reckoning, has a chartist's interpretation of what is happening with PPP. The article follows below. Unfortunately I can't get the charts to reproduce in this post - someone else may be able to do it. Anyway according to this guy everything points to a strong movement up over the next little while. Hope he is right!!!!!!

An Oil Junior with More Momentum Than Crude…
By Gabriel Andre
The energy sector in the Aussie market continues to outstrip other industries. Crude hit an all time-high of US$143 in New York last night. We see a few oil juniors moving with it. Pan Pacific Petroleum (ASX:PPP) is one stock that can keep this up.
The stock has dug itself a nice little channel, trending upwards. Sellers have tried to push PPP outside this channel a couple of times. They’ve done nothing more than create false break-outs. They couldn’t establish momentum.

That’s really the story of the energy sector at the moment: momentum. Selling in hope of a correction is like stepping in front of a freight train, hoping to find a dollar on the tracks. These false break-outs on PPP’s chart are typical traps for short-term traders. Don’t fall into one of them.

CHART 1

No…instead…look at the company’s upside potential. Between points H and E on the chart, the stock added 49%. That’s a feel-good gain for less than two months work.
Since then it has corrected. We don’t think it’ll go all the way back to the trend’s resistance line though. Take a look at how Fibonacci traders have treated it.

CHART 2

That 61.8% Fibonacci level is now a strong intermediary support. PPP has consolidated from there. With that support underneath it, a few indicators argue for the next leg of profits.
The MACD just crossed its signal line. Take note of that. The MACD has given off good signals like clockwork for PPP. We don’t expect that to change now.
The Stochastic Momentum Index is also bullish. It’s a similar story. The trend is up, and it just crossed the signal line. There’s a good chance selling in this stock has finished.
Keep tabs on where PPP closes today. If it’s up, that’s as good a confirmation as you’re going to get. In that case, it’d probably move on to test resistance at 34 cents.
Good investing,
Gabriel Andre
Money Morning
2 July 2008
I must confess that charting is not one of my core competencies - I get my Fibonacci curves confused with my Elliot Waves and my candles blowing in the wind - but it all sounds good, Taijon.
With this stock I think the fundamentals are going to trample over the technicals (I like the analogy of "stepping in front of a train, hoping to find a dollar on the tracks").
It did end up, on the NZ bourse today (haven't checked Oz) so hopefully thats the confirmation we need.
Hope you've got plenty, for the ride.

[FrankEd]

This is a step in the right direction for PPP, assuming he is good at what he does (seems to have a fair bit of experience!) then we can see some more projects...

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080707/pdf/31b19hvm735psm.pdf

[Dr_Who]

Looks like PPP is getting ready for a spending spree.

[the machine]

Looks like PPP is getting ready for a spending spree.

will we see a div?

M

[upside_umop]

2 cents would be sustainable wouldnt it? 588*.02 = 11.8 million aud...
3 cents even..that would give the sp a kick up the pants wouldnt it!
wouldnt be suprised if they want more certainty wrt to investment decisions from maitland though..

[Sharp737]

TR IS a dividend man. One thing I like.

And, of course, having a lot of shares as with Alan Tattersfield & co, they stand to benefit hugely. And we along with them. Go the dividend I reckon!! Even 4c is affordable with money raking in now and I would hope that the 700,000 odd barrels that were alloted for sale at US$50 has all gone so it would be top prices from quite a ways back. Sure Maitland will come up in the future but that is a ways off yet and they have stacks of cash

But will the divi (if given...) be fully imputed to NZ shareholders? All the tax would have been paid...I wonder...

Sharp

[tricha]

TR IS a dividend man. One thing I like.

And, of course, having a lot of shares as with Alan Tattersfield & co, they stand to benefit hugely. And we along with them. Go the dividend I reckon!! Even 4c is affordable with money raking in now and I would hope that the 700,000 odd barrels that were alloted for sale at US$50 has all gone so it would be top prices from quite a ways back. Sure Maitland will come up in the future but that is a ways off yet and they have stacks of cash

But will the divi (if given...) be fully imputed to NZ shareholders? All the tax would have been paid...I wonder...

Sharp

A dividend just like NZO fully imputed, how much.

I'd say they are sitting on 15 cents a share cash, so 5 cents would be reasonably at this stage of the game.

30 million payout, just topped up today to 170,000 shares x 5 cents would make a nice $8500 cheque.

This has got to be better than money in the bank. ;)

[tricha]

This is my favourite cash cow.

10% of Tui

10% of around 50 million barrels.

5 million barrels = $500,000,000

Nah, I'm going to bed.:)

[Sharp737]

And the bank interest on PPP's money sitting in the bank is no joke either!

[jonathan76]

If I buy some tomorrow, will I get the dividends? when is the dividend expected to be pay?

[shasta]

If I buy some tomorrow, will I get the dividends? when is the dividend expected to be pay?

No dividend has been announced.

In fact i doubt they even have a dividend policy!

[macduffy]

I'm hoping that they will surprise us on that score!

But not holding my breath!

:rolleyes:

[tricha]

No dividend has been announced.

In fact i doubt they even have a dividend policy!

They have a great policy Shasta, they have taken the best bet there is in this bear market, money in the bank earning interest.:D

I just hope they have not been silly and put in in high interest accounts like a finance company :(

Sharp737 - "And the bank interest on PPP's money sitting in the bank is no joke either! "

My money is on a good dividend to use up any tax losses, so they should be in a position like NZO and give out a fully franked dividend.
Shasta u being an accountant, does that make sense or do u reckon they would be better of investing in someone like Uran. :confused:

[shasta]

They have a great policy Shasta, they have taken the best bet there is in this bear market, money in the bank earning interest.:D

I just hope they have not been silly and put in in high interest accounts like a finance company :(

Sharp737 - "And the bank interest on PPP's money sitting in the bank is no joke either! "

My money is on a good dividend to use up any tax losses, so they should be in a position like NZO and give out a fully franked dividend.
Shasta u being an accountant, does that make sense or do u reckon they would be better of investing in someone like Uran. :confused:

To be truly tax efficient, PPP need to use up there tax losses & pay tax to be able to apply full franking credits.

Until then, paying a dividend is not a good idea.

A share buyback would be more "tax efficient" until PPP has paid enough tax to apply full franking credits, so all shareholders benefit.

PPP could buy URAN with about 2 weeks revenue :D

[FrankEd]

PPP could buy URAN with about 2 weeks revenue :D

Don't speculate that, i don't want PPP and URA to become one - i'd like to think i can get out of one ahead!
:)

[tricha]

The outstanding result is based around the highly successful Tui Area Oilfields off the Taranaki coast, in which NZOG holds a 12.5% stake.
NZOG’s Tui revenue for the year ended 30 June 2008 was $222.8m‡.

My caculator tells me PPP will earn 194.95 million based on their 10% stake.

Forgot to mention some hedging here, so less than 194 million, but still a fantastic result.

Next year looking Tui’s expected production for the 2008/09 financial year has been upgraded from 6 to 9 million barrels of oil (NZOG’s share 1.125 mmbbls), providing continuing strong revenue and cash flows.

So next year expect another great year for PPP, a true cash cow !

Worth 24 cents, joke right ?

[macduffy]

My calculator tells me $178.24m

Whatever, a lot of dollars!!

;)

[tricha]

My calculator tells me $178.24m

Whatever, a lot of dollars!!

;)


Spot on MacDuffy.
All that cash and it did us no favours, I wonder if another 50 million would have made any difference.

AA is 100% right here .

AA - Sentiment rules above every thing else ..

...Sadly

It rules above logic,

It rules above reason,

It rules above Fundamentals

and if your not clued up....

It will Rule above YOU!


AA

[the machine]

my backofthe envelope calculation is that after repaying tui debt, covering hedging position, putting aside for tax and royalties, ppp have au12c per share = a net price earning ratio after above of about 2/1 based on todays asx close.

imagine how it would look like in the press if infact the official p/e ratio is about 2/1 - that is obscene.

come on mr market - look at ppp and smile!

m

[Dr_Who]

ITs funny how the market is punishing good oilers in Aussie. All the good oilers are getting hammered in this market. I have some PPP and may add even more, but the entire market is just bizzarrrrrr.

[macduffy]

The market seems to have come to the conclusion that although PPP will earn good money from Tui for the next year or two, it's unlikely to make meaningful distributions to shareholders from those earnings. So it's waiting to see what else the company spends its money on and what it can prove up.
I'm holding PPP but don't see any reason to add while market sentiment is so disinterested.

[tricha]

The market seems to have come to the conclusion that although PPP will earn good money from Tui for the next year or two, it's unlikely to make meaningful distributions to shareholders from those earnings. So it's waiting to see what else the company spends its money on and what it can prove up.
I'm holding PPP but don't see any reason to add while market sentiment is so disinterested.

I've just listened to the latest audio from "Stockanalysis", PPP gets a mention as a cash cow.
Peter also high lights that once AWE has swallowed up ARC, PPP would be a juicy supplement.
Peter did not do his homework, as NZO already own 7.5%, so my bet is NZO which already has 1st bite, will move in for the kill. ;)

I'm sure they will pay a fully franked dividend. Same as NZO did, to use up their tax losses.

So this is got to be better than money in the bank, a little patience is required though, to get the full reward. :) Patience is not one of my attributes I'm afraid. :o

[tricha]

I've just listened to the latest audio from "Stockanalysis", PPP gets a mention as a cash cow.
Peter also high lights that once AWE has swallowed up ARC, PPP would be a juicy supplement.
Peter did not do his homework, as NZO already own 7.5%, so my bet is NZO which already has 1st bite, will move in for the kill. ;)

I'm sure they will pay a fully franked dividend. Same as NZO did, to use up their tax losses.

So this is got to be better than money in the bank, a little patience is required though, to get the full reward. :) Patience is not one of my attributes I'm afraid. :o

Out of the AWE quarterly. They are looking at stealing someone elses shares on the cheap, do NZO or PPP fit the bill ?:rolleyes:


The merger with ARQ will be positive for AWE and
with the recent declines in global share markets,
new merger and acquisition opportunities, which
could be of considerable advantage to AWE, are
likely to emerge. We will continue to look closely at
all opportunities for corporate growth.”

[Dr_Who]

Whatever PPP decide to do with the hard earned cash, I hope they do it wisely. I would hate to see the cash go to waste on trash. I still think a merge and/or T/O is the best option for PPP.

With current A$100m cash in the bank, it will only cost NZO less than A$100m to own PPP. The revenue from Tui will pay for the entire company by next year. Or maybe a script + cash T/O offer to reflect the true value of PPP will probably win the hearts of the shareholders.

[macduffy]

Yes. we all hope they spend their cash wisely.
Any suggestions?

:confused:

[FrankEd]

I've said it before, but they could certainly diversify on their project base if they were to lend ADY the cash they need to continue on... At least they can cover their bases with electric cars and petroleum driven cars that way...
Not too likely however!:o

[the machine]

would most welcolme awe making a play for ppp
with a range of optoins;

-1 awe share for 5 ppp shares [approx 100% MARK UP OF PP]
-cash bid au50c per share
-combinatIon of above

bring it on!
M

PS, IT HELPS WHEN YOU OWN A 300TH SHARE OF A VINEYARD IN TIMES LIKE THIS
= NICE WINE TO ENJOY AND DEADEN THE BEARS



M

[boysy]

with all this talk of take over who would be in the position to actually take over ppp and what would a decent offer be for ppp ?

[gazprom1]

Ugly out there today. Buying some more PPP after 3 weeks of sitting on my hands. Will probably get my hands burnt!!! There has been some discussion of a dividend payment on this thread. Any views on whether this may be announced at the AGM?

[gazprom1]

I am back today trying to buy some more despite falling oil prices.


Disc: PPP, NOG, HZN, BPT

[tricha]

with all this talk of take over who would be in the position to actually take over ppp and what would a decent offer be for ppp ?

At a rough guess, 34 cents.

Who AWE or NZO or anyone really.

gazprom1 - with 12 cents a share in the bank, who knows what the management will do.

We will just have to sit back and wait patiently on either event.
But while we wait, cling, cling, cling, more money going into the coffers. Even the interest will be looking good.

[Dr_Who]

What am I missing?

PPP market cap @ 23 cents = $135.4m
Cash = $91m

[Sehnsucht888]

A few other assets, and some debts that knock about 20 mill more off..
And not being on any brokers radar...

[boysy]

it is rather bizzar i mean u wonder why another jv in the tui oilfields doesnt just buy out PPP i mean they would know the margins ?

[tricha]

What am I missing?

PPP market cap @ 23 cents = $135.4m
Cash = $91m

What u r missing is oil is supposed to go back to $60 A BARREL.:rolleyes:

Dam missed 22 cents a share today. :(

At this price in < than a year from now, at $90 + a barrel, we should be cash verus share price = even. :rolleyes:

[boysy]

and since those figure were calculated another 120,000 barrels of oil have been sold which grosses another 16 mill revenue.

120,000 barrels (ppp share) * $120 us / 0.9 us = A$16 mill

what is ppp planning to do with the money they have there was no mention unlike the NZO quarterly ?

[boysy]

does PPP have a valuation by any of the major sharebrokers ? and if not why dont they ?

[Dr_Who]

does PPP have a valuation by any of the major sharebrokers ? and if not why dont they ?

No, not that I am aware of. PPP too small for any broker to care.

[Huang Chung]

Joined you lot on the Good Ship PPP today.

As mentioned previously, cash at bank should exceed current market cap very soon, so unless they do something stupid, you would think that either the shareprice will rise on its own accord, or someone will make a move to take them out.

[boysy]

got some more today at these levels PPP will soon have more cash on hand than their market cap. Are we thinking a dividend could be announced in the full year results ?

[gazprom1]

Boysy,

I am with you and bought some more today and have an order for a few more. I am hoping that there may be a dividend announcement. If so, IMHO would be lift for sp as well as receiving some cash for the dividend.

Does anyone know why small parcels are being traded every 4 to 5 mins?? Is it some automated programme??

[boysy]

i mean even if they distributed $10 to $15 million thats around a 10% yield at current prices. I guess everyone is holding their breath untill a maitland reserve announcement comes out.

[rainey]

Can somebody tell me that should PPP decide to pay a dividend, what is present situation regarding franking credits. As the divi would be in Au$, are they available to NZ holders

[Huang Chung]

I guess everyone is holding their breath untill a maitland reserve announcement comes out.

Correct me if I'm wrong boysy, but Maitland should come in somewhere around 180pj to 260pj. PPP has a 10% stake, so, lets call it 25pj.

25pj would be relatively insignificant for a company capitalised at $120m, surely.

[boysy]

You would think that in the anual report some sort of company direction would have to be stated. Just think a 3 cent dividend would be paid for in around a month at current prices coming out of tui.

[boysy]

PPP do have a lot of permits throughout the carnarvon why is it that all we hear about is maitland they must be concentrating on more than one prospect especially with all this cash sitting in the bank. I hope to learn of PPPs future plans in the anual report what are peoples thoughts ?

[tricha]

Joined you lot on the Good Ship PPP today.

As mentioned previously, cash at bank should exceed current market cap very soon, so unless they do something stupid, you would think that either the shareprice will rise on its own accord, or someone will make a move to take them out.

HEY HUANG U FINALLY PUSHED THE BUTTON, got an oiler, Mincor would have been a good bet yesterday :p I think MCR has bottomed and Nickel as well.

Boysy is Tony Radis... the same that was on the news tonight, a major shareholder of Broadlands finance company ????. A finance company that has actually made a good profit.

If it is, he must be onto it as an astute investor goes.

[Huang Chung]

You guys made some good points about this one being undervalued.

Seems more of a utility than an oiler though, just sit back and count the cash. I'm sure I'll get nervous if they announce an exploration program though :eek:.

[the machine]

not only are ppp racking in the $ through tui sales, but interest must be over aud$1m per month as well [remember when ppp only revenue was trubridgi and aud$1m / would have been huge]

maitland 4/5 are next cabs off the rank and success inturn development will add good revenue in a few years.

meanwhile the $ keep rolling in.

need mr market to see ppp are holding about 70% cash and adding to it all the time

would expect ppp to announce a dividend as there will most likely not be any investments for some time [say 6 months at least] after appointment of the new senior position

M

[Corporate]

not only are ppp racking in the $ through tui sales, but interest must be over aud$1m per month as well [remember when ppp only revenue was trubridgi and aud$1m / would have been huge]

maitland 4/5 are next cabs off the rank and success inturn development will add good revenue in a few years.

meanwhile the $ keep rolling in.

need mr market to see ppp are holding about 70% cash and adding to it all the time

would expect ppp to announce a dividend as there will most likely not be any investments for some time [say 6 months at least] after appointment of the new senior position



M

Do we know when the annual is due out?

[boysy]

around the 22 of september

[boysy]

where can we find out more info about maitland ive looked around but am finding it hard to find info even on the websites of other partners in maitland. Does anybody have a good link ?

[Sharp737]

Here's a few from TAP Oil and they place it highest on there exploration/appraisal chart

http://www.tapoil.com.au/pages/operations_drilling.asp

http://www.tapoil.com.au/pdf/asxdrill.pdf

http://www.tapoil.com.au/admin/Upload/docs/Investor_Presentation_July_2008.pdf Esp. page 11

Sharp

[boysy]

cheers mate that bottem link is realy helpful about maitland they put reserves at between 160 and 280 pj. And helpful about maitland 4 and 5.

[boysy]

Its very interesting to see that tap sees maitland as having the highest possibility of success in its exploration and appraisal portfolio. And that it views maitland as going to add substantial value to TAP. This looks very promising indeed.

[da puntzda]

Boysy

Do you know what these sort of reserves would equate to per share on a back of the envelope type calc?

[boysy]

well it depends over what time period and discount rate ect. The thing with maitland is they are having difficulty getting an accurate reserves assesment and hence why more drilling ( maitland 4 and 5 ) are planned to help increase reserve certainty.

[boysy]

also very interesting to note that TAP state that they are keeping their eye on the horizin for a "gem of a deal " and aquisition of value adding assets.

[boysy]

also very interesting info about TUI in AWE anual report. Talking about timing of drilling of 2 new wells in the next 9 months also mention of gas export to maui on page 20. Also tui still producing over 40,000 + barrels of oil a day

[bermuda]

also very interesting info about TUI in AWE anual report. Talking about timing of drilling of 2 new wells in the next 9 months also mention of gas export to maui on page 20. Also tui still producing over 40,000 + barrels of oil a day

That is interesting Boysy. I thought they couldnt get a rig until early 2010. This is good news for the JV if they can secure early.Just because they missed out on Tieke and Taranui , doesnt mean it's all over. Plenty more there I am sure.

[boysy]

nzos report will be very valid for ppp dont people think that this friday could be an interesting day especially if nzo pay a dividend

[upside_umop]

hi boysy,

the only thing is australia has a few different tax rules and ppp decided to take a different approach in their tax..so they reported only a profit of about 10 million as opposed to nzo's 32 (aud)..(interim)

i havent done too much research, but i believe they have a deferred tax asset..as this was only a temporary difference.

got some more at .27 on nzx today...but someone only willing to give me 11000 :(

[Huang Chung]

If PPP have accumulated losses, any dividend they pay this year would presumably be unfranked in Oz. They may prefer to wait until losses have been utilised and they are paying company tax, in order to make fully or partly franked distributions.

I'm only guessing at their tax status here.

[tricha]

also very interesting info about TUI in AWE anual report. Talking about timing of drilling of 2 new wells in the next 9 months also mention of gas export to maui on page 20. Also tui still producing over 40,000 + barrels of oil a day

Yep two monthes nearly gone in this quarter, for another 30 million dollars turn over to PPP.

Yep whats not to like, better than a bank at the moment :p

Every month the cash is catching up to the share price. :rolleyes:

[boysy]

lets just wait for that anual report and the pe ratio lol i mean come on im sure they must state cash in the bank and they must be starting to sit on a big pile of gold.

[boysy]

also have people noticed the sellers are starting to dry up and more big buy orders are showing. Is this a sign of things to come i hope so

[Taijon]

Boysy, I have just been reading through the PPP thread. I have a few shares in this company. Recently I emailed the company and asked when the annual results would be announced. Got a reply which said 29 August 2008. I suggested this info should be on the PPP website but I haven't followed up to see if it is there yet.

So you should be more wiser tomorrow. Here's hoping for "an exceptional result".

[Sehnsucht888]

Taijon - Thanks for the info. I had a look through their site and couldn’t find anything. NZO has a great calendar of events, where as PPP still seems very blasé.

I hope you are right, as boysy on the last page said it was due around the 22nd September..

[boysy]

perhaps after the market opens in aus ? i mean ppps reports are always later in the day than nzos what sort of figures are people thinking

[Sehnsucht888]

boysy, I changed my post to refer to the 22nd Sep - that was what your previous one had mentioned - where did you get that from?

[boysy]

using asb securities corporate calendar

[Dr_Who]

I am only interested in how much net cash they have in the bank and what they intend to do with all that cash.

[tricha]

I am only interested in how much net cash they have in the bank and what they intend to do with all that cash.

Hmm, hot of the NZO press this morning, I wonder if this will have any effect on PPP, probably not.
But PPP is now my biggest holding and a 4 cent dividend would be a nice bonus. A little bit more patience :p required.

Net sales just under $100 a barrel US, WELL in this quarter it's been over that and the OZ dollar has been smashed, interesting ;)

Tui Oil Fields
A standout achievement during the year was the performance of the Tui Area
Oil Fields, situated off the Taranaki coast, which began production on 30
July 2007. 11 months later, at the end of the financial year,
reserves had been upgraded by 80%, production was 42% ahead of forecast and returns had
been boosted by record international oil prices.

Total oil production from Tui for the financial year was 14.2 million
barrels. NZOG's share was 1.8 million barrels and the average net sales price
was just under US$100 a barrel.

NZOG achieved project 'payback' - recovery of all exploration and development
costs for the Tui Area Oil Project - by December 2007 - just four and a half
months from production start-up.

During the year the initial proven and probable (2P) reserves were upgraded
to 50.1 million barrels. In addition, the lease term for the floating
production storage and offtake vessel (FPSO) Umuroa was extended to the end
of 2015 with rights to extend to 2022. Our current expectation is that Tui
will continue commercial production to around 2020.

Plans are being developed to increase the fluid (water and oil) handling
capacity of the Umuroa to 180,000 barrels per day.
This will allow more oil to be recovered at a faster rate from the current reservoirs and provides the
flexibility to tie-in any future nearby discoveries

[boysy]

so we should get some figures out today what are peoples thoughts

[tricha]

so we should get some figures out today what are peoples thoughts

I would not hold my breath, PR is not one of their strong points Boysy.

A bit quick off the mark and I missed a key point.

Our current expectation is that Tui
will continue commercial production to around 2020.

[Hoop]

Tricia quote.....
"..But PPP is now my biggest holding and a 4 cent dividend would be a nice bonus..."

Maybe a bit high Tricia?? Hope your right though :)
$24 million Dividend is about 3 months of profit at the moment.

I had 2cents with a hopeful 3cents as a figure which PPP could part without too much pain.

Unfortunately your other quote worries me "..I would not hold my breath, PR is not one of their strong points Boysy.." I hope they don't do an AWE trick and tell their shareholders to get stuffed.

I serious doubt that would ever happen with no dividend declared.

My PPP shares are at a Pet Poodle status in my Portfolio. It is my worst performing share and like you Tricia it is my biggest share holding as well....so lets hope for a 4 cent Dividend and get this PPP share price momentum rolling upwards.

With each quarter the Tui income is adding 4 cents to each PPP share.

[boysy]

do people expect an announcement about future direction off ppp in the full year out today ?

[Dr_Who]

do people expect an announcement about future direction off ppp in the full year out today ?

I hope they will announce a clear direction. One of the main reason the sp have not performed is management is not pro active and have no clear direction for the future of PPP. A div will be nice for the long suffering shareholders who have been loyal. I just hope management makes a sensible decision and a clear strategy or I will dump my shares.

[Hoop]

do people expect an announcement about future direction off ppp in the full year out today ?

I can't comment for other people but I do expect some sort of future direction comment.

[boysy]

And we expect it out today some time as was told by a ppp representative ?

[boysy]

report out

REL: 1511 HRS Pan Pacific Petroleum NL

FLLYR: PPP: PPP ANNUAL PROFIT ANNOUNCEMENT

STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT

29 August 2008

ANNUAL PROFIT ANNOUNCEMENT

Pan Pacific Petroleum NL advises a net profit after tax for the year ended 30
June 2008 of A$52.4 million.

EBITDAR (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and
royalties) were A$126 million.

These results are a reflection of the excellent performance of the Tui Area
Oil Project since first oil on 30 July 2007, with PPP's share of production
to 30 June 2008 being approximately 1.4m barrels.

Year end saw the company holding A$81 million in cash after having fully
repaid its Tui project borrowing by 30 June 2008.

As previously reported, proven and probable oil reserves at Tui were upgraded
twice during the year, to 50.1 million barrels (PPP share 10%).

Renegotiation of the operating lease terms over the FPSO have secured use of
this facility until up to 2022, which reflects the fact that Tui reserves and
production rates have proven to be substantially more favourable than
originally forecast.

B Flatters-Wright
Company Secretary

[AMR]

Out 5 mins after your post on the ASX :)

I like the 210,586% growth in revenues :D

[boysy]

A$52.4 million profit not bad for a company with a market cap of A$140 million

[Corporate]

and no dividend!

[Sehnsucht888]

nope- despite "earnings per share of 8.91 cents." and the share price being what it was 1 year ago.

37% of the current share price is profit from last years operations there in cash.

[boysy]

im a bit dissapointed that nothing new was said in the report no directional statements either i guess some hard questions will have to be asked at the agm

[Dr_Who]

The result is pretty much expected with no surprises. Very disappointing that there is no direction and/or plan for the company moving forward. No announcement of div, even with so much cash in the bank. Why?

[macduffy]

The result is pretty much expected with no surprises. Very disappointing that there is no direction and/or plan for the company moving forward. No announcement of div, even with so much cash in the bank. Why?

Annual results announcements are not usually the time for "plan(s) for the company moving ahead". Emphasis is on what has happened in the past year.
But it would be reasonable to expect something in the intervening period before the AGM, particularly as the new Exploration Manager will have had some time to settle in by then.
But let's not see them throw away hard earned cash.

;)

[tricha]

The result is pretty much expected with no surprises. Very disappointing that there is no direction and/or plan for the company moving forward. No announcement of div, even with so much cash in the bank. Why?

Yeah I was hoping for a dividend and booking a trip on Skols airline, but the story is still a great story, Tui is an awesome cow and plans to get milked till 2020. Looks like it stays in the bottom drawer. :p

Tui Oil Fields
A standout achievement during the year was the performance of the Tui Area
Oil Fields, situated off the Taranaki coast, which began production on 30
July 2007. 11 months later, at the end of the financial year,
reserves had been upgraded by 80%, production was 42% ahead of forecast and returns had
been boosted by record international oil prices.

Total oil production from Tui for the financial year was 14.2 million
barrels. NZOG's share was 1.8 million barrels and the average net sales price
was just under US$100 a barrel.

NZOG achieved project 'payback' - recovery of all exploration and development
costs for the Tui Area Oil Project - by December 2007 - just four and a half
months from production start-up.

During the year the initial proven and probable (2P) reserves were upgraded
to 50.1 million barrels. In addition, the lease term for the floating
production storage and offtake vessel (FPSO) Umuroa was extended to the end
of 2015 with rights to extend to 2022. Our current expectation is that Tui will continue commercial production to around 2020.

Plans are being developed to increase the fluid (water and oil) handling
capacity of the Umuroa to 180,000 barrels per day.
This will allow more oil to be recovered at a faster rate from the current reservoirs and provides the

[sideline]

Just out of interest,
since PPP is an Australian company it probably doesn't have any NZ imputation credits.
So would NZ shareholders have to pay tax on a divi if it happened now?
Maybe better to wait, although a law change would hardly be before 2010.

The following is copied from a PWC site:

$Mutual recognition of imputation credits

The Australian and New Zealand Governments have agreed to consider proposals for the mutual recognition of imputation and franking credits between companies that invest in the other country. The decision to investigate mutual recognition acknowledges that current arrangements subject investors to double taxation and distort investment flows between Australia and New Zealand.

Mutual recognition would allow a New Zealand resident to claim a tax credit for franking credits attached to dividends received from Australian companies. Similarly, Australian residents would receive a tax credit in Australia for imputation credits attached to dividends paid by New Zealand companies.

The Australian Treasurer, Wayne Swan, has invited the New Zealand Treasury to make a formal submission on mutual recognition to Australia's Future Tax System review, which was recently established by the Federal Government. The Review Panel is not expected to issue a final report until the end of 2009.

The first formal meeting between Minister of Finance Michael Cullen and Wayne Swan also confirmed that:

* Officials are expected to conclude negotiations for a new tax treaty between Australia and New Zealand by the end of 2008;
* negotiations will continue on an Investment Protocol to encourage investment in both countries; and
* a new arrangement on private retirement savings portability will be finalised by October 2008.

[macduffy]

I wouldn't hold my breath.
Politicians have paid lip service to the need to "harmonise" tax between the two countries for as long as I can remember. Unfortunately for us shareholders, the thought of giving up all that lovely double tax revenue prevents any action in this regard.

:rolleyes:

[Hoop]

I remember seeing in the report just released that PPP only had $2M of Franking credits available.
Might have been a factor not to distribute a Dividend this time around.

[Dr_Who]

Where is the AGM held? I wouldnt mind going to the AGM and asking a few questions.

[boysy]

Can we expect alot more from TUI and from the umuroa ?

on tui - total of five prospects
having been identified close to Tui, which are respectively named Tui SW,
Kahu Crest, Tui NE, Kahu Stratigraphic and Tui SE.

on the Umuroa - increasing processing capacity.

I was just wondering if anyone knows if the proccesing capacity of the umuroa is increased( from 120,000 to 150,000 + ) will this mean that the umuroa will be able to process more oil ?

[Huang Chung]

I was just wondering if anyone knows if the proccesing capacity of the umuroa is increased( from 120,000 to 150,000 + ) will this mean that the umuroa will be able to process more oil ?

I believe this will be the case boysy. I read somewhere that the issue is really having more capacity to deal with the water that is being produced.

On current reserves, increasing the fluids handling capability of the Umuora should substantially reduce the number of years needed to extract the oil, and thus increase the NPV of the project.

Sounds like they are expecting much more from Tui then, as they've negotiated a firm lease on the ship until 2015, with options through to about 2020!

[boysy]

yes currently the issue is with oil but if they do drill some more wells around tui and tie them back to the umuroa you would like to think that more oil can be procesed than the 50k max. But yes currently the water content is the problem so greater liquid processing capacity will impact until more wells are drilled. They say 2009/2010 before they will get a rig back to taranaki but is this problem so bad in the permits in AUS i mean they must be able to test other permits before then ?

[tricha]

I believe this will be the case boysy. I read somewhere that the issue is really having more capacity to deal with the water that is being produced.

On current reserves, increasing the fluids handling capability of the Umuora should substantially reduce the number of years needed to extract the oil, and thus increase the NPV of the project.

Sounds like they are expecting much more from Tui then, as they've negotiated a firm lease on the ship until 2015, with options through to about 2020!
offtake vessel (FPSO)

Slight correction here Huang - Umuroa was extended to the end
of 2015 with rights to extend to 2022. Our current expectation is that Tui will continue commercial production to around 2020.

U look at companies like ROC, 130 million debt, trying to take over AZA who have cash and here is PPP with truckloads of cash accumulating every day, with millions in the bank.

Interesting times ahead.

[boysy]

Future plans for tui look very interesting you would have to assume that a reserve re assesment might be undertaken soon. hope someone on this tread goes to the agm and asks a few questions about the direction of the company.

[Sharp737]

Boysy, these 'new' prospects close by Tui are very interesting. Very VERY interesting!!
Now this is totally unexpected and lends credence to the thought that Tui may indeed hold up to 100 million barrels of recoverable oil (as has been suggested here in "pub talk" in Taranaki). NOW I seem to understand HOW this can possibly be!
Whereas before, looking at the given maps and the data that has been made public, there was no way that you could see that possiblility. NOW one can see that possible scenario!
Speculation...yes...but it sure IS interesting.

Blimmin' heck....what else is going on that we don't know of?

And the new Manager is starting this month (September).

Sharp

[Sharp737]

And by the way, the FPSO processing facilities have been extended to 2022!

Now what does that tell you?

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080829/pdf/31c0g2x1d8xvcb.pdf

Sharp

[boysy]

if it is infact a 100 million barrels of oil one would like to think they get onto it quick smart.

problems being

Rig availability ?

how much more liquids can the urumoa handle ?

how do the rigs get leased i mean surely the jv partners must have some indicative timeframe when these leads can be actively explored ?

[macduffy]

Hi boysy.
I know less than nothing about the technicalities of discovering/producing oil. ( Doesn't stop me having a financial interest now and again, though).
I wouldn't have thought that the capacity of the Umuroa was a major issue. There's no hurry to get the stuff up and sold - in fact, the slower the better percentage recovery, if I've interpreted the experts correctly.

;)

[boysy]

well im talking about the current shareprice the quicker the recovery time the lower the discount rate for its value

[Huang Chung]

Tui certainly seems to be a case of 'stronger for longer'. If Umuroa is modified, any idea how long it will be offline? I suppose they'll have to take it to Singapore or suchlike to do the mods.

[Sharp737]

Huang, I think they would do the modifications "on the job" as they have already done. It would I would say, only be a matter of shipping in extra processing vessels etc. to the ship and connecting it up in a small "shutdown". I would not think of the ship going back to Singapore at all. Keeping the production going is imperitive to the J.V.

Sharp

[Dr_Who]

So, why is PPP sp moving up lately?

[boysy]

well ppp has held up quite good so far compared to other oilers i just hope the poo goes up again quick smart. Even so tui still pumping over 35k a day equating to over A$500k.

[tricha]

well ppp has held up quite good so far compared to other oilers i just hope the poo goes up again quick smart. Even so tui still pumping over 35k a day equating to over A$500k.

Oil in OZ $ running around $130 a barell, has been around there for the last month, income should be maintained shouldn't it or am I missing something :confused:

I was hopeing for a drop in price for PPP due to this misconception Boysy, dissappointed, maybe they are just to cheap.:p

Notice the inverse reaction between the OZ and oil price in US $




Brent Crude Oil $US/barrel
http://nz.f961.mail.yahoo.com/ya/download/nz/ShowLetter?box=Inbox&MsgId=8449_8749736_19515_1829_319275_0_20659_51113 0_1334348848&bodyPart=6&YY=24066&y5beta=yes&y5beta=yes&order=down&sort=date&pos=0&view=a&head=b&Idx=4





A$/US$
http://nz.f961.mail.yahoo.com/ya/download/nz/ShowLetter?box=Inbox&MsgId=8449_8749736_19515_1829_319275_0_20659_51113 0_1334348848&bodyPart=7&YY=24066&y5beta=yes&y5beta=yes&order=down&sort=date&pos=0&view=a&head=b&Idx=4

__________________

[boysy]

im with you tricha if in the short run the price falls im happy to pick up some more ppp on the cheap. The fundementals for ppp are great and the lower sp goes the better they get. people are complaining about the price of oil slipping back but even 1 year ago everyone investing in oilers would be more than happy with oil over $100us. Its an interesting time to be investing in oilers at present who knows what will happen next. All i know is that TUI is profitable at $40us a barrel and its my guess opex wont let it get back to anywhere near that level .

[upside_umop]

Hey Boysy,

Tui is profitable as long as oil price is above its marginal cost of next barrel. Ie For PPP and the JV that is the Operating costs of Tui. ATM that is below $10, and forecast to be around $15-$20 when production curtails off steeply (McDougall stated this somewhere). So, I wouldnt expect them to shut down production at all...I just wonder how much of the reserves increase was set on high oil prices (>$100 oil?)...

The project a whole offered a good return at $40 a barrel, but since the project is now paid off, its only opex that matters...

Right now, imo, PPP is probably valued by the market using around $70 oil. As at 30 June they had around $90million of net assets. That means they only need $50 million more to have more assets than market cap atm. If strong support is shown around $100 for oil, then expect a rally in oilers as a few investors have a bit of fear oil is going to drop right down, thus oilers priced higher risked.

One thing I like, and that no one seems to have posted about is the FPSO handling capacity.

Initial plans were to be upgraded to 150,000 barrels handling capacity, now that looks to be increased again to 180,000 barrels handling capacity. Im guessing this extra capacity is for if they tie in other areas close to Tui, this would be a huge gain with this sort of handling capacity. I just want more details to confirm the drilling...maybe they will get the rig after maari and further evaluation on kupe...

[Oiler]

Hey Boysy,

One thing I like, and that no one seems to have posted about is the FPSO handling capacity.

Initial plans were to be upgraded to 150,000 barrels handling capacity, now that looks to be increased again to 180,000 barrels handling capacity. Im guessing this extra capacity is for if they tie in other areas close to Tui, this would be a huge gain with this sort of handling capacity. I just want more details to confirm the drilling...maybe they will get the rig after maari and further evaluation on kupe...

Upside down

I think you maybe right in suggesting they get the rig after Maari and further evaluation of Kupe...;)

To ugrade Umaroa to handle 150,000/180,000b a day will be no mean feat.:eek::eek::eek: What do they do with the gas produced? Burn it :(:(:( what are the options ?? maybe a pipeline to Maui B?
The area does have big potential and there are lots of "pub talk" stories around New Plymouth about what might happen :)

Time will tell

Oiler

[the machine]

now we know why ppp did not pay a div, as may need lots of $ for possible tui extensuion drilling in 2009.
per crown minerals website they have fast tracked news from awe.

the campaign could top $300m = ppp share $30m

M

[Dr_Who]

I am liking the fact that they are sticking to the areas they know best and have a competitive advantage.

[tricha]

im with you tricha if in the short run the price falls im happy to pick up some more ppp on the cheap. The fundementals for ppp are great and the lower sp goes the better they get. people are complaining about the price of oil slipping back but even 1 year ago everyone investing in oilers would be more than happy with oil over $100us. Its an interesting time to be investing in oilers at present who knows what will happen next. All i know is that TUI is profitable at $40us a barrel and its my guess opex wont let it get back to anywhere near that level .


Down 1 cent or 4.3% today, I'm in now at 22.5 cents for 100k of them.

33,771 left to fill.

2 months of the quarter gone and oil still $130 a barrel oZ, so the average price for their oil so far this quarter will be WELL up on the last one. :p

[boysy]

a good time to top up lets be honest this one is a money making machine and its only so long before the cash held exceeds market cap.

[tricha]

a good time to top up lets be honest this one is a money making machine and its only so long before the cash held exceeds market cap.

I will be Honest Boysy, got my 100,000 xtra PPP shares at a very good price. It might not be the bottom, but in a years time, cash will = 22.5 cents.
I'm picking it is about 14 cents a share now.

Interest in ten months = 1 cent ( for full year )

Another 7.5 cents to go.

So by 1st July it should be around 22.5 cents, production from then till 2020 will be free carried. Upside exploration potential ? unknown.

Maitland = unknown


SELECTDATE SENTBUY/SELLQUANTITYSTOCKEXCHANGEPRICESTATUShttps://ost.asbbank.co.nz/images/spacer.gif05/09/2008Buy 100000 PPP ASX $0.225 Order Traded

[boysy]

money pilling into the bank and the sp drifting soon the earnings in the bank are going to top the market cap. At the present time PPP would have close if not over A$100 mill in the bank and a market cap around A$130 million how long before people see the value of TUI alone to ppp and lets not forget the further potential of TUI and Maitland and other permits that PPP hold.

[tricha]

money pilling into the bank and the sp drifting soon the earnings in the bank are going to top the market cap. At the present time PPP would have close if not over A$100 mill in the bank and a market cap around A$130 million how long before people see the value of TUI alone to ppp and lets not forget the further potential of TUI and Maitland and other permits that PPP hold.

All I can say is this is a sleep at night investment, buy more on weakness and be patient.

Just like IPM, u only stay cheap for so long.:rolleyes:

[Corporate]

All I can say is this is a sleep at night investment, buy more on weakness and be patient.

Just like IPM, u only stay cheap for so long.:rolleyes:


I just don't understand why either NZO or AWE have not just picked PPP up, and put it in the bank. Mmmm 10% of 36,000 barrels per day for maybe $100million net.

[Hoop]

I just don't understand why either NZO or AWE have not just picked PPP up, and put it in the bank. Mmmm 10% of 36,000 barrels per day for maybe $100million net.
A little while ago I used a rule of (FA) thumb 1.35c/month / share added to the share price each month fundamentally speaking. This equates to about $8 million Profit in the bank each month.

That's the good news.... the bad news is we are in a bear market and fundamentals don't mean much because the bear can't count.
Rely on TA for buying opportunities / timing not FA

Disc hold PPP

[h2so4]

I think I'll join the oilers with this one.

[Hoop]

I think I'll join the oilers with this one.

Best of luck.:)

[Phaedrus]

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/PPP0910.gifhttp://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PPP910.gif

[h2so4]

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PPP910.gif

Most charts are in the toilet these days but this is cheap!!!

[dartMonkey]

Phaedrus, I get that it is in a downtrend but there seems to be support anywhere between 20 and 21.5 (or 24 to 25 in NZPPP). One of the most helpful points for a noob like me that I picked up from you was buy on support, sell on resistance. How does that maxim fit into PPP?

[Phaedrus]

DartMonkey, when the chart was posted this afternoon, there appeared to be continued support at 21.5 cents, but that was broken by the Close of 21 cents. So the four month downtrend continues.

The simplest, most conventional technical buy signal would be to buy on a break above the trendline.

It is quite common for downtrending stocks to find short-lived support levels all the way down. The breaking of these continues the downtrend. This SCY (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=221665)chart is a nice example of multiple support levels being broken as the downtrend continued. Anyone buying SCY "on support" would have been buying all the way down with disastrous results.

[macduffy]

Let's hope that PPP has the sort of bounce that SCY has had recently!

;)

[Huang Chung]

I sold my holding earlier in the week for 22.5c simply because the negative sentiment seemed to be winning day. With talk of oil going down to $80 a bbl, there might be an opportunity to buy PPP in the high teens.

Fundamentally, a great story, but you can't stop a mob of rampaging elephants, can you.....

[tricha]

I sold my holding earlier in the week for 22.5c simply because the negative sentiment seemed to be winning day. With talk of oil going down to $80 a bbl, there might be an opportunity to buy PPP in the high teens.

Fundamentally, a great story, but you can't stop a mob of rampaging elephants, can you.....

Great move Huang, but only if u buy back in time and who knows what day that will be.
Yes management here a bit slow, no dividend, opportunity for a buy back while trading at a discount.
And heres a real worry. CUE with heaps of cash buying out IPM, IPM goes up and CUE goes down.:eek:

So if PPP engage in a take over, likely to get canned.
If someone engages a takeover for PPP a quick 20% gain.

On the positive side, the balance between cash and share price is closing fast ;)

[shasta]

Great move Huang, but only if u buy back in time and who knows what day that will be.
Yes management here a bit slow, no dividend, opportunity for a buy back while trading at a discount.
And heres a real worry. CUE with heaps of cash buying out IPM, IPM goes up and CUE goes down.:eek:

So if PPP engage in a take over, likely to get canned.
If someone engages a takeover for PPP a quick 20% gain.

On the positive side, the balance between cash and share price is closing fast ;)

Tricha

You mean COE, not CUE aye?

Also, do you see OPEC letting oil go below $US90/bbl?

I can't see it happening

[Huang Chung]

Tricha

You mean COE, not CUE aye?

Also, do you see OPEC letting oil go below $US90/bbl?

I can't see it happening

Oil at $90 a bbl would probably see PPP back at 18c....crazy stuff for sure, but that's the prevailing mood of the market.

[Corporate]

Looks like we could be about to test the 20c support level!
Funny that we are at the same price before tui started producing!

[upside_umop]

its definitely crazy alright...i'm just worried about a world recession bringing oil prices to their knees temporarily. rogers reckons oil commodities are still best to own in a world recession though...

a share buy-back should be in order for sure...this is hurting me! haha

[h2so4]

If you were to buy PPP at current market levels, aprox. $120m, you would have your money returned in 4.5 years, assuming CAP/EX remain at current levels, aprox$11m. Thats close enough to a no brainer for me. ;)

[h2so4]

I just don't understand why either NZO or AWE have not just picked PPP up, and put it in the bank. Mmmm 10% of 36,000 barrels per day for maybe $100million net.

Maybe its not worth it or they are looking for bigger fish and want to put more money into an aquisition.
Or maybe owning PPP is not market sensitive enough and only want to own companies that are in the news, so they are seen to be doing the "right" thing in the minds of their investors.

[tricha]

If you were to buy PPP at current market levels, aprox. $120m, you would have your money returned in 4.5 years, assuming CAP/EX remain at current levels, aprox$11m. Thats close enough to a no brainer for me. ;)

I just wish I had more cash.

Earnings and Dividends (javascript:glossaryId('101'))Forecast (cents per share) Curr----EPS8.9----PE(x)2.4----DPS0.0----

[Nitaa]

Oil at $90 a bbl would probably see PPP back at 18c....crazy stuff for sure, but that's the prevailing mood of the market.the downside for ppp is very small. plenty of upside. remember this stock hit about 30 cps (aus) when oil prices were a lot lower and proven reserves were lower as well.

if i were a broker awe and ppp are definate "Dont Sell" at these levels.

what this space.

discl: hold

[macduffy]

If you were to buy PPP at current market levels, aprox. $120m, you would have your money returned in 4.5 years, assuming CAP/EX remain at current levels, aprox$11m. Thats close enough to a no brainer for me. ;)

To " have your money returned " involves receiving dividends.

Have I missed something?

;)

Disc: Holding PPP

[h2so4]

To " have your money returned " involves receiving dividends.

Have I missed something?

;)

Disc: Holding PPP

Lets just say you could pay for the business in 4.5 years of earnings. A steal!!!...dont you think?

[macduffy]

Lets just say you could pay for the business in 4.5 years of earnings. A steal!!!...dont you think?

Certainly! I was just trying to be clever!

That's why I'm holding firm.

;)

[boysy]

well everyday the cash in the bank grows just sit back easy knowing that at some stage soon the market cap will be exceeded by the cash held by PPP. Current SP values TUI Maitland and all permits at under 20 million i just hope management can preserve this one from a take over.

[the machine]

see in todays local press the p/e ratio is 2 times

what a joke of a price

as no directors have bought any stock, then interpret that to be something is cooking, otherwise they would be buying.

M

[tricha]

see in todays local press the p/e ratio is 2 times

what a joke of a price

as no directors have bought any stock, then interpret that to be something is cooking, otherwise they would be buying.

M

A bit of a coinincidence Machine. Posted the same thing myself today, the directors nearly own 20% of the company.
Could u do me a favour and post the information of a p/e of 2.

Earnings and Dividends (http://javascript<b></b>:glossaryId('101'))Forecast (cents per share) Curr----EPS8.9----PE(x)2.4----DPS0.0----

[boysy]

how much of ppp cash is held in other currencies ?

[the machine]

A bit of a coinincidence Machine. Posted the same thing myself today, the directors nearly own 20% of the company.
Could u do me a favour and post the information of a p/e of 2.

Earnings and Dividends (http://javascript<b></b>:glossaryId('101'))Forecast (cents per share) Curr----EPS8.9----PE(x)2.4----DPS0.0----


my interpretation is the price is 2 times the earnings over last 12 months [2 x 6 month reporting periods]

M

[the machine]

how much of ppp cash is held in other currencies ?

would only be a guess, but expect quite a lot in usd$ with balance in aud$

reason say quite a lot in usd$ is Tr has same for nzo and nextphase ofdevelopment drilling for tui will mostly be in usd$.

unsure about costs for maitland

M

[bermuda]

I really wonder what is going on here. Sometimes I think it is because everyone seems so negative. This company is coining it . Radford is no fool but I agree he should/could use a marketing consultant. But then, he has probably thought of that. But maybe he thought it was an un neccessary expense. That's an accountant for you.

[macduffy]

would only be a guess, but expect quite a lot in usd$ with balance in aud$

reason say quite a lot in usd$ is Tr has same for nzo and nextphase ofdevelopment drilling for tui will mostly be in usd$.

unsure about costs for maitland

M

Notes to Annual accounts at 30 June 2008 has cash and cash equivalents:

$74.4m in USD
$15.3m in NZD

Must be gross figures as number for Cash and Cash Equivalents in the balance sheet is $81m. Seems that very little, if any, is held in AUD.
Mention is made of policy of natural hedging as far as possible. We assume that most ongoing expense is in USD.
If not complicated by forward exchange contracts, the current strength of USD v AUD is working to PPP's advantage.

;)

[h2so4]

I really wonder what is going on here. Sometimes I think it is because everyone seems so negative. This company is coining it . Radford is no fool but I agree he should/could use a marketing consultant. But then, he has probably thought of that. But maybe he thought it was an un neccessary expense. That's an accountant for you.

I agree everything looks good. No dividend thats good, PPP still in growth phase and making more money for its investors. Directors not buying thats good, they already own 20% and that keeps any prospective buyer in two minds whether or not he can convince another 30% of shareholders to vote in favour of any takeover/merger, assuming he can convince management.

FY08 showed a cash return on invested capital of 23.37%. Last time I looked interest rates weren't 23%.

I'm completely happy and can't see any potential problems.

[Corporate]

I wouldn't be buying until PPP breaks its downtrend.

Buying now would only be in hope of a take over which i thougtht that would have happened by now.

[h2so4]

I wouldn't be buying until PPP breaks its downtrend.When will that happen? I think the market will soon realise its mistake, I dont try and pick up pennies infront of a bulldozer, now theres a quote for phaedrus!!!!

Buying now would only be in hope of a take over which i thougtht that would have happened by now.

I don't want to see this company taken over yet. Still too much potential????

[boysy]

ok so this by now PPP would have around $90 mill US so with the exhange rate fall this would equate till about A$108 million and then the NZ would be around A$9 million so we have around A$115 million cash in different currencies and the market cap is A$126 what gives lol. This is a cash cow which values TUI and Maitland at next to nothing when will the market wake up

[Tok3n]

Gas flaring at Tui is probably worth more then the potential gas at Maitland.

Tui extensions is where growth for this company will come from..if the partners can get a drill rig...

[boysy]

gas at tui was flaring at 17 million cubic feet a day while that at maitlqnd was 6 million though that was constrained and with sand. I think you are right about TUI being the jewel in PPP crown but maitland is still relatively unknown i think the market has written Maitland off so any good news hasnt been factored into the shareprice.

[h2so4]

I have just finished re checking my evaluation of the numbers and OMG!!! Cash return on invested capital should be 51.32%. If you still want to buy the business you can do it with just 2.2 years of current earnings!!! What a steal!!!!!!;)

[tricha]

I have just finished re checking my evaluation of the numbers and OMG!!! Cash return on invested capital should be 51.32%. If you still want to buy the business you can do it with just 2.2 years of current earnings!!! What a steal!!!!!!;)

That would be the 1st 2 years of production h2S04, from Tui, share virtually paid off, and then 11 years of free carry and then upside with exploration.
And then we have this to deal with, peoples perception the oil price has crashed in NZ and OZ. Fools, PPP and NZO are creaming it :p
Petrol prices slow to fall

4:00AM Sunday Sep 14, 2008
Cliff Taylor


http://media.apn.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/fuel19.jpg
New Zealanders have been told that the local fuel market is fundamentally competitive. Photo / AP

Motorists still reeling from the fuel price hikes of June and July are asking why the price they are paying appears to be falling almost three times slower than the world oil price.
The Government has repeatedly told drivers that increases in the price of crude oil caused petrol price increases, which saw regular 91 peak at $2.18 a litre in July.
After howls of protest, the Government commissioned a study that found New Zealand's petrol market was "fundamentally competitive" and that, prices were not fast to rise and slow to fall.
But the Herald on Sunday can reveal that despite crude oil prices slumping more than 33 per cent since their peak in July, petrol prices have dropped by an average of just over 8 per cent.
As the price of crude oil hit US$147 a barrel in the second week of July, petrol reached $2.18.
The oil price has dropped significantly since then, falling to less than US$98 a barrel last week.
But the petrol price has fallen more slowly, settling at an average of less than $2 a litre for the past three weeks. Some companies in Auckland dropped their prices on Friday, with the lowest being Shell on just under $1.94 and Gull on just under $1.92.

Automobile Association spokesman Mark Stockdale said drivers were asking why. "We've had people ringing us up, saying, 'Why isn't the pump price going down?"'

Stockdale said the simple answer was the exchange rate.
"The crude oil price isn't the only factor. The only thing stopping the pump price being lower today is the exchange rate. In April it was 78.5c to the US dollar - now it is 65.25. That's a huge difference."
Stockdale said another factor was the 2c a litre rise in the ACC levy on fuel in July. He agreed with the Government's view on petrol prices. "I think the prices are about right."
Hamish Wilson, testing manager at Consumer NZ, agreed the exchange rate was the key factor and the half a per cent cut in the official cash rate on Thursday would not help because it had caused the New Zealand dollar to fall 2.3 per cent to US65.25c.
"That's not good for the petrol price. The unfortunate fact is we pay for petrol in US dollars. It's a lose/lose situation, there's nothing we can do about it."
However, he believed a drop in the petrol price was justified. "We always think there's room for the oil industry to do better. They seem to have reverted into their old mode where they are slow to drop prices. But I understand some of where they are coming from."
Commerce Minister Lianne Dalziel was unavailable for comment, but a spokesman for the Ministry of Economic Development said any idea that petrol companies were profiteering at the expense of motorists was wrong.
"There is no evidence they are earning more now than what they were three months ago," he said.
"There is the base cost, the exchange rate, oil company margins, taxes. I wouldn't think there was much room for companies to drop prices."
He said the oil price was volatile and all the ministry could do was monitor the situation and publish importer margins on its website.
"New Zealand is a mature market and relatively competitive, despite what people may think," he said.
"On the retail side there is just no money in petrol, in terms of profit it's bugger all."

[h2so4]

I liked the quote from Hamish Wilson, testing manager at Consumer NZ


"That's not good for the petrol price. The unfortunate fact is we pay for petrol in US dollars. It's a lose/lose situation, there's nothing we can do about it."

"there's nothing we can do about it"

[Corporate]

if you take cash and cash equivalents at 30 June 2008 and apply todays exchange rates you get $102m.

Add on revenue since 30 June 2008 of approximately $36M. I think you could safely say that the current cash balance is at least equivalent to the market capitalisation.

Surely there must be some sharks circling? Seeing at the directors own about 20% of the company i wonder if they would accept a reasonable take over offer??

I wonder what PPP are going to do with all of there coin...it'll make or break the company.

[h2so4]

I wonder what PPP are going to do with all of there coin...it'll make or break the company.

...make more money.....they have done a great job so far.

h2

[macduffy]

Yes, I think PPP is a great buy at these prices but before trying to estimate cash balance, what do we know about current exploration expense, eg Maitland, and what about future commitments ?

;)


Disc: Holding tight to PPP.

[Corporate]

...make more money.....they have done a great job so far.

h2

If you're standing still, your going backwards! IMO shareholders have been let down thus far.

Have a look at the latest annual report. Compare the 2007 and 2008 figures.....Awesome result and completely different between the two years. BUT..

SP 30 June 2007 28.5c

SP closed on friday at 21.5c

Thats a 25% decrease!

This is while oil prices have increased
This is while tui reserves have been upgrated
This is while the exchange rate has moved in PPP's favour

What are there future prospects?
What are they doing with all the cash?
How are they going to create/distributed share holder value?
Why aren't directors buying more shares?


Disc. Don't own PPP

[Grand Uber]

Looks like Stephejame beat me to it

Wheres the future for PPP?

[shasta]

Looks like Stephejame beat me to it

Wheres the future for PPP?

PPP either buys/farms into another producing field (for growth), or...

Gets taken out for it's Tui "Royalties" over the next 10 years or so...

Talk about a self funding takeover!

If PPP is to survive it needs IMO to farm into AWE/NZO projects for further Taranaki exploration

[Corporate]

PPP either buys/farms into another producing field (for growth), or...

Gets taken out for it's Tui "Royalties" over the next 10 years or so...

Talk about a self funding takeover!

If PPP is to survive it needs IMO to farm into AWE/NZO projects for further Taranaki exploration

and really will NZO/AWE bother allowing PPP to farm in? It's not as if either of them are short of cash.

One of them should just take out PPP and save $500k a year on directors/sec fees. Plus another $200k on tax and audit fees per annum

[macduffy]

I agree with that, shasta.
PPP 's future seems to be inextricably linked to that of NZO, as has it's past. Unless it gets taken over, it will almost surely follow big brother's path because of the common shareholdings. Hopefully, that will also entail stepping in AWE's footsteps to some extent.
I keep waiting for these major shareholders to decide that it's time to distribute some of the loot via a dividend, but it seems we'll have to wait a bit longer.

;)

[Corporate]

If i had the money i'd take out PPP. It's a no money down deal! Self generated cash would cover most of the takeover price and the rest would easily be paid for by tui going forward.

[h2so4]

If i had the money i'd take out PPP. It's a no money down deal! Self generated cash would cover most of the takeover price and the rest would easily be paid for by tui going forward.
Good news. You dont have to have all the money.
Its on sale everyday. Fridays price 21.5c p/s

[boysy]

to protect the comapny from a take over what are the options the company can do ?

[shasta]

to protect the comapny from a take over what are the options the company can do ?

Use it's money basically, either go into debt & leverage into a bigger slice of a producing field.

Or, pay dividends, share buybacks etc.

A cash box like PPP is a sitting duck, carrying some debt may put some predators off.

If Management own more than 10% they have a blocking stake, & PPP already have that

[boysy]

a share buyback would increse the managements own controling stake wouldnt it ?

[macduffy]

a share buyback would increse the managements own controling stake wouldnt it ?

Yes, unless those shareholders sell proportionately into the buyout. I doubt it, but who knows?

;)

[shasta]

a share buyback would increse the managements own controling stake wouldnt it ?

I guess so, if they didnt participate themselves :confused:

PPP is hamstrung to the extent on what Management want to do.

If they want a return on there investment they will pay dividends.

If they want out, they will put up the "for sale" sign

Or, they may stay as is & draw on there salaries, cheap options etc

They have enough exploration projects to target there funds for, so it seems they want to stick around a bit longer!

[upside_umop]

yes boysy, and mine too! haha

i was having a read of the statements last night, here are some things that will not happen this financial year or be reversed as things stand:

* $4.6 million writedown. This was due to exploration drills...i dont think we will get any of that in this financial year.

* $4.8 million as a liability for derivitives (ie their options). These will have since been reversed, with outstanding liability now circa $1 million (a good thing, but not a good thing..)

* $2 million was wrt to writing off borrowing costs + interest expense. We shouldnt need anymore funding from here.

* $0.5 FX loss. This is now a healthy $15 millon FX gain.

As you can see...as things stand, the half yearly would look quite good if things remain unchanged for 3 more months. It would be possible to have a higher NPAT than this financail year than last...interest revenue will only amount to about 4-5 million for the financial year, if they were to keep all the cash in bank - something i would think would be highly unlikely.

Where is the future for PPP? The same as where it is for NZO. NZO only has 2 other assets over PPP - KUPE and PRC. PPP has basically the same permits in Taranaki and its all important Tui area field stake. As a few have said...there is 'pub stories' going around about the eventual tie-in size of the fields.

As for future commitments? Tui upgrade...easily covered with a bit of lending if need be. Maitland? Not much....should only be a tie-in. Drills...we'll work that out when the time comes.

PPP have a sizeable warchest, and could easily build stakes in other up and coming oilers. Watch out CUE (apart from clogged up register) and TAP...its cash that counts!

[upside_umop]

18 month trendline is still intact...

[Corporate]

yes boysy, and mine too! haha

i was having a read of the statements last night, here are some things that will not happen this financial year or be reversed as things stand:

* $4.6 million writedown. This was due to exploration drills...i dont think we will get any of that in this financial year.

* $4.8 million as a liability for derivitives (ie their options). These will have since been reversed, with outstanding liability now circa $1 million (a good thing, but not a good thing..)

* $2 million was wrt to writing off borrowing costs + interest expense. We shouldnt need anymore funding from here.

* $0.5 FX loss. This is now a healthy $15 millon FX gain.



I'd also ad a reduction in amortisation expense for the 08/09 financial year.

[tricha]

If i had the money i'd take out PPP. It's a no money down deal! Self generated cash would cover most of the takeover price and the rest would easily be paid for by tui going forward.

Thats a very good option Shep, if we had the money.

Maybe it's why it's my biggest holding, hmm, another wait, for the patient that is, I'm sure things will unfold in due course.

Because as we all know the rate of cash and the share price will reach equilibrium.

When that happens the market might wake up ;)

[h2so4]

Thats a very good option Shep, if we had the money.

Maybe it's why it's my biggest holding, hmm, another wait, for the patient that is, I'm sure things will unfold in due course.

Because as we all know the rate of cash and the share price will reach equilibrium.

When that happens the market might wake up ;)

$1.00 for dollar in cash assets + a free profitable oil exploration business???? Ya sort of start questioning yourself.... is this possible?? I think we need to make some sort of a press release.

Geez go the Warriors.

[boysy]

you wonder why they havnt been blowing their own trumpet i mean who does it help out having a deflated shareprice ?

[Phaedrus]

It is interesting to compare the performance of PPP.NZ with PPP.Aus - not much opportunity for arbitrage there!

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PPPanz914.gif

[upside_umop]

Yeah, must have been said before but...

PPP and the law of one price...oh what a pun haha

[Corporate]

jezz closed at 20c today! MC = AUD$117 Million

Nearing 52 week low!

[boysy]

and we have a fairly decent idea of how much cash they have. Around A$100-110 million so this values all the other assets at $7-17million what a joke

[Onthemoney]

Well I might have to have a crack at this and take out the depth.... Watch tomorrow....

[bermuda]

Well I might have to have a crack at this and take out the depth.... Watch tomorrow....

Nice call...and a profitable one....watch out for post Lehmanitis. That Greenspan has a lot to answer for.

[Onthemoney]

Cheers Burmuda - for those that don't know me I don't spare the horses....

[bermuda]

Cheers Burmuda - for those that don't know me I don't spare the horses....

Hi Onethemoney. As you say why muck around when the story is so good. Oil might have another $5-10 down and then things will change. I have actually been thinking about putting some of my best stags into this pasture. The grass is pretty green.

But I am pretty happy where I am. Disc.BOW, RPM, TEX, TEXO, CNX, VPEO, VPE, and today ITC. Plus a bit of NZO and PRC.

But, this downtrend aint over yet. Greenspan totally ruined the USA. Or perhaps the administration put in a dipstick puppet. Reminds me a bit of that Peter Sellars film about Gardener George. Quite a funny movie.

So much like the USA it isnt funny.

[drillfix]

But I am pretty happy where I am. Disc.BOW, RPM, TEX, TEXO, CNX, VPEO, VPE, and today ITC. Plus a bit of NZO and PRC.


Huh? Bermuda, you mean no MOS or MOSO for you at all? :eek:

[the machine]

hey ppp went up today on the asx!

sp value still same as ppp cash position - the pile grows every month


was wondering if the next development drill for tui will include a gas reinjection capacity - if it does [and it should] then all the gas from other wells can be stored in tui until such time as the gas can be sent to market [which could be quite a few years away]

by pumping gas into tui it will displace oil at the top = more oil for production - maybe?



as regards POO,whilst it is dropping remember it is only the after tax part that really concerns us - also it might provide scope to take out some of the hedge positions

M

[bermuda]

hey ppp went up today on the asx!

sp value still same as ppp cash position - the pile grows every month


was wondering if the next development drill for tui will include a gas reinjection capacity - if it does [and it should] then all the gas from other wells can be stored in tui until such time as the gas can be sent to market [which could be quite a few years away]

by pumping gas into tui it will displace oil at the top = more oil for production - maybe?



as regards POO,whilst it is dropping remember it is only the after tax part that really concerns us - also it might provide scope to take out some of the hedge positions

M

Hi Machine,
Studies are underway to pipe it along the ocean floor to Maui. Green pressure but hey its economic.

[boysy]

cash is king in this market i just wonder if cash held has exceeded market cap yet

[the machine]

cash is king in this market i just wonder if cash held has exceeded market cap yet

imo it has
M

[boysy]

The next quarterly will be very interesting indeed. When do we expect a update about maitland in the quarterly ?

[Nitaa]

The next quarterly will be very interesting indeed. When do we expect a update about maitland in the quarterly ?not yet but getting very close. within the next 6 weeks based on current market cap

[KentBrockman]

..... When do we expect a update about maitland in the quarterly ?

I guess the fact that Maitland once prominently featured in TAP's presentations but isn't even mentioned in the latest update isn't looking promising. :(

[boysy]

their is a big question mark hanging over maitland however the numbers speak for themselves the market cap is A$120 they have over $100 million in the bank have TUI still making around $8 million a month profit have permits. Is the saving grace of PPP the fact that they have almost their entire market cap in the bank in a market like now wouldnt you expect ppp to be shouting this fact from the roof tops ?

[macduffy]

The problem with shouting about their cash is that it might raise expectations further that a big div is in the offing.This would leave a lot of disgruntled investors if instead, the company has plans to spend up big on farmins/exploration.
The fact that the SP is holding up in this market when almost everything else is going down indicates that it is not entirely overlooked.

;)

[boysy]

well its hard to overlook the pile of cash they have thank goodness they havnt spent it yet thats surely a good thing in hindsight. PPP investors can sit easy on the fact that the pile of cash they sit on will hold the ship steady through this market volatility.

[upside_umop]

as regards POO,whilst it is dropping remember it is only the after tax part that really concerns us - also it might provide scope to take out some of the hedge positions

M

hey machine, the hedging liability will now cease to exist...a good thing, or not a good thing?

cash cash...you cant discount it. this is one of the safest bets in the market (cash will be recognized eventually), although it has downtrended reasonably consistently. maybe ta's telling us something we dont know...

a share buyback feeding off the bottom would be in the interests of current shareholders...i dont think enough would be picked up to make a difference though.

[Sehnsucht888]

quiet day today. Both sides unsure which way the next correction will be. Although I'm happy to pick up a few around this level. If Oils going to go back up again, then these shares must follow.
And how can they go much less given all the cash they hold..

[boysy]

exactlt there isnt much downside as the cash held on hand must provide some level of resistance the fact is that TUI is profitable right down below us$40 a barrel the question is will what happens with the poo over the short term

[macduffy]

quiet day today. Both sides unsure which way the next correction will be. Although I'm happy to pick up a few around this level. If Oils going to go back up again, then these shares must follow.
And how can they go much less given all the cash they hold..

PPP SP didn't follow the PoO up in the recent past and hasn't tracked down to the same extent. I'm not sure therefore that we can expect them to follow if the PoO spikes again.
The good news is that a director has added 200k shares ( to the 47m odd already held! ). That's good enough for me!

;)

[Sharp737]

Yes, the buying in is a good indication of what the Directors think of PPP. No doubt about it.
Sharp

[Sehnsucht888]

PPP SP didn't follow the PoO up in the recent past and hasn't tracked down to the same extent. I'm not sure therefore that we can expect them to follow if the PoO spikes again.
The good news is that a director has added 200k shares ( to the 47m odd already held! ). That's good enough for me!

;)

PPP has certainly languished, and is lower than before it generated 80Mill in profit.
Hopefully when (assuming it does happen), things settle and logic starts to drice decisions PPP wioll be one to prosper. Given the $ puled out of the market, there must be some looking at where to put it when things start going up, and this must be a prospect

[the machine]

Yes, the buying in is a good indication of what the Directors think of PPP. No doubt about it.
Sharp


one thing though with a director buying, is that it signals nothing new is going to happen that is not already made public

ie

they are not going to invest in another oiler - org / tap / nzo etc.

there is no fantastic new prodect being worked on

what is in the public domain is what you get for next 6 months, thus sp will go sideways for quite a while yet, meanwhile ppp add about aud$5.8m to their coffers every month which equates to 1c per share

very tempted to sell all nzo and prc to top up ppp, but no, one has to diversify the risk and ppp is already 40% of portfolio.

M

[tricha]

one thing though with a director buying, is that it signals nothing new is going to happen that is not already made public

ie

they are not going to invest in another oiler - org / tap / nzo etc.

there is no fantastic new prodect being worked on

what is in the public domain is what you get for next 6 months, thus sp will go sideways for quite a while yet, meanwhile ppp add about aud$5.8m to their coffers every month which equates to 1c per share

very tempted to sell all nzo and prc to top up ppp, but no, one has to diversify the risk and ppp is already 40% of portfolio.

M

Arr, but NZO could take PPP out with one foul swoop. That's if AWE do not do it 1st.:rolleyes:

[tricha]

Arr, but NZO could take PPP out with one foul swoop. That's if AWE do not do it 1st.:rolleyes:

P/E Ratio (http://javascript<b></b>:glossaryId('3')) 2.24 Market Cap (http://javascript<b></b>:glossaryId('4')) $117.7 Million

Lets face it what other companies have a p.e ratio of 2.24 ????????????????????

1 * No debt

2 * Millions in the bank

3 * Cash pouring in every day.

4 * A director buying

5 * Extremely low over heads.

Better than a bank, u bet, banks are on a hiding to none, p.e of 8 -11 and a housing market that is crashing. Hmm plenty to unfold.

As long as PPP do not do something stupid :rolleyes:

.................................................. ..................................................

Disclosure - PPP is by far my biggest holding, so what I just said is ramping ;)

[the machine]

the money ppp must have now should equateto market cap - remember most is held in usd$ so the aud$ equivelent has just had a 25% appreciation in space of a month

hope they keep it in usd$ though

M

[boysy]

crude up over 6% overnight will it take the quarterly result when cash held exceeds market cap to wake up people to this company. The price now puts no value on TUI or other prospects cash is king and ppp has alot of it.

[h2so4]

As long as PPP do not do something stupid :rolleyes:


I dont even think management can screw up on this one.:)

[Dr_Who]

Can someone remind how much cash they have in the bank?

[h2so4]

Can someone remind how much cash they have in the bank?

As at the 30 June 08, $81m. I dont know how to calculate the current bank balance. There are probably a few credit cards floating around that havent been taken into account, but I just like to be on the conservative side.:)

[Dr_Who]

Is that $US?

[h2so4]

Is that $US?

Nope, Ausie Dollars