Users of the Sharetrader Site

[Kookaburra]

When I first discovered this site some 6 years ago near the bottom of the post dotcom period, I could barely wait to read it every day. Even sneaked a peek several times a day at the height of my addiction. It felt like I was tapping into the pooled wisdom of an investing elite: Those who had or were about to give up their day jobs to work full time on the markets. Or those who had an understanding of tools such as TA that were esoteric mysteries to me. Or those who liked to convey the impression they had inside information.

My own knowledge felt paltry against these players. I hesitated to add any opinion because I knew so little. But eventually I took the bold step of posting some thoughts. Some of those I would now like to delete. They seem so naive.

Of course there were fools and pseudo-fools posting all the time. These provided amusement and the realisation that there will always be a bigger fool whether it be in the market or on a bulletin board. What did it matter what anyone says, let alone little old me. The important thing is to say something. It is putting keys to the screen that matters. The fixing of a thought is the start of understanding. And there is nothing like the clash of opinions to help sort out the truth or sort out one's muddled thinking.

There was/is also the wonderful filter the site provides for all the rubbish that is published on the net. Experienced and knowledgeable players posting the best articles is a darned efficient way to keep abreast of developments and reduce one's exposure to noise.

I still post little because I still have little to say that has not already been canvassed or carcassed. My knowledge is still very limited and my ability to to add new thoughts quite restricted.

I also think the site has lost something, and it is not just my loss of innocence. Is it just that being in a bear market there are no longer the euphoric moments of following a winning idea? Ah the thrill of the 10 baggers in uranium in 2006! The only winning idea now is to short the market and that is such a downer. And it can only be only be said and done once because the bottom is not here yet and few of us know how to play the short side.

Is it more than that though? Who is now posting on this site? The balance seems to have shifted so that most posts are now by the late entrants and the ignorant. Is it that the smart money has left the market and so lost interest in posting?

Is the nature and this feeling about postings a contrarian indicator of the market? Will one of the first signs of a turnaround be the shedding of the high volume, low content postings and a return to the few and thoughtful when "guru" meant someone who posted a lot of knowledge because they worked fulltime on the markets?

[Lizard]

Hi Kookaburra,

I found myself perusing the old ST forum and reminiscing at the weekend...I was looking for one particular topic I remembered, but found many more amusing ones!

Anyway, here's a thread where you, yourself rated a (complimentary) mention in one of the posts:
http://www.snitzforum.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=21229

As for the essence of your topic; for those of us who like to be "long equities", it does not seem like a good time to be making calls in public. Any positions require tight monitoring, so it is difficult to post without the risk of misleading innocent readers. Obviously, those who are long oilers still don't mind talking...:cool:

[Halebop]

A well crafted and thought provoking post Kookaburra.

Personally I think bull markets simply make a lot regular people (and some very stupid ones) look clever for a short while. Eventually mistakes are made and reality sets in when the inevitable correction occurs.

The market is in the dog box and economies are showing signs of fatigue. My pick would be to wait for recessions to be declared and then start looking at those consumer discretionary and financial sector companies currently copping a market backlash. Anyone, even "long term buy-n-hold investors" with a prudent risk management policy and an eye to history would be hoarding cash right now. Suspect we might only have to wait a couple of quarters to take action.

In the meantime, many of the experienced hands and investment stars of old have either gone fishing or gone broke.

[Corporate]

Thoughts from a newbies perspective.

I have only been around the traps for a few months, and I can not put into words the amount I have learned. Especially in relation to company analysis, strategies for investing and the economics that push the financial markets. I previsouly lack confidence to invest, but that has all changed.

I had considered only today posting a message in thanks of everyones contribution. I don't no what the forum was like historically, but I can not fault it!

[shasta]

This year we have lost Gerry Stolwyk, a long time well respected poster, & Dave Robbo has gone AWOL (i think the ramping taunts got to him :()

Not too many here left that have been here beyond 4 or 5 years.

I'm not sure why, but there still seems to be alot of members lurking & viewing the threads, but not posting. :confused:

I'm assuming after a while those who contribute there research get fed up & move on, or stop posting? (I just hope we don't end up like H/C with people looking for the next "hot tip" & that's the extent of there contribution!)

I found it intimidating to post at first, when i would see the likes of Phaedrus posting charts & giving out technical opinions, so i guess it's part of learning & what we are all ultimately here for!

The increase in apparent "novice" posters is perhaps just a market mechanism & reflective of the late stage of a bull market, when the small mum & dad retail investors finally plough in (after the easy money has been made & moved on).

Now the bears have installed fear & doubt into those who haven't experienced this before.

I just wonder how many members we lost when the wesite was upgraded?

Kookaburra - do keep posting, we need more contributors on Sharetrader

[STRAT]

My own knowledge felt paltry against these players. I hesitated to add any opinion because I knew so little. But eventually I took the bold step of posting some thoughts. Some of those I would now like to delete. They seem so naive.

Hi Kookaburra,
Im still there and with little to offer but without regret. I take comfort in the fact that when I make an ass of myself someone will publicly or privately let me know. I in turn learn something.

There are still some very clever people here though they may number only 6 to 10. Its taken me years to figure out who they are. I will not embarrass by naming them but I would like to thank them for their direct but mostly indirect assistance.

[777]

In the old days, actually not really that long ago, we had the trading floor where those that were interested could go and observe and chat with like minded people. We lost that but did have Access Brokerage in both Auckland and Wellington for a year or two where we could chew the fat. Now with trading all done on the net these forums are all we have to share ideas and thoughts. We need everyone no matter what level of knowledge they have. Its great that some can and do help out the newer investors.

I wonder too, at how far NZO would have gone without the contributions made here by some quite informed members.

[duncan macgregor]

I read what i want to read, listen to the people i want to listen to, never take advice from anyone, and expect that even the village idiot knows something that i dont. I like having a broad base to work from, it teaches me things that i would never have thought up myself.
The only posters i object to are the one line idiots who follow other posters about snapping at their heels. Macdunk

[Dr_Who]

I

Is it more than that though? Who is now posting on this site? The balance seems to have shifted so that most posts are now by the late entrants and the ignorant. Is it that the smart money has left the market and so lost interest in posting?



I know for a fact that the so called "smart" money are not looking so smart after all. Did someone mention the "brokers pick"? LOL...The very smart money have been cashed up for 2 years waiting for a day like today and long on oil/gas.

There are good money to be made in this market. Just have to be patience and keep your eyes and ears open. There will be a time to go back into these very cheap blue chips, but not just yet.

Abit like the world we live in. A good forum will have all walks of life contributing. Whats a forum without abit of fun and games at times?

[bob.not.a.builder]

I'm a new investor, started playing around with $10k about a month ago and already up 13% on paper. I was aiming for 10% initially but PRC have gone so well and NZO, I hope are getting better. Is it unreasonable to ask for 50% return after a year of trading?

I have taken advice from my father (AIA good dividends) but taken half the money into PRC and NZO on my own doing (with the help comments made here). I often wonder "is it really this easy?" but I realize that I don't know much yet and have yet to experience any real profits/loss.

So ATM I just guess I lucky. Being a young trader (by no means the youngest) its given me something else to do besides playing video games. I notice though its on my mind alot, tempted to look here and at the SP every hour :( I look forward to the next few months with another $10k tied up in a term deposit :)

[Halebop]

Good luck Bob! For the record it's not that easy. :) Your first losses will be the true test of character and instinct and intellect over emotion :eek:

[Kookaburra]

A well crafted and thought provoking post Kookaburra.

Personally I think bull markets simply make a lot regular people (and some very stupid ones) look clever for a short while. Eventually mistakes are made and reality sets in when the inevitable correction occurs.

In the meantime, many of the experienced hands and investment stars of old have either gone fishing or gone broke.

I fully agree with the first statement and wonder about the second. It is in my view clearly a wise time to be out of the market. I believe almost anything one can buy now one will be able to buy more cheaply by years end. That is the sole reason for me to be out of the market. To me it seems obvious. The warnings that prices would be unsustainable were there for a long time before the rot set in. Being of a conservative and safely pessimistic disposition (and now with quite a bit at stake) I tend to exit a position a little early. I suspect this may be common amongst older players who need to preserve their retirement funds. It is much harder to sustain one's interest in monitoring the market once there is no money at stake. Though it is also a constant struggle not to dabble. My experience with OGC has been a costly lesson in this. I am mindful of the Lawrence Livermore book in which one old player when asked about investing would only ever reply "Its a bear market" or its a bull market. In a sense he was right - you can make and keep money of you keep focussed on this. Some more skilled players can make money through TA and by trading the swings in a falling market but for most of us it is not going to work because on average we lose if the total value of the market is falling. This is all obvious but not always top of mind.

[Kookaburra]

As for the essence of your topic; for those of us who like to be "long equities", it does not seem like a good time to be making calls in public. Any positions require tight monitoring, so it is difficult to post without the risk of misleading innocent readers. Obviously, those who are long oilers still don't mind talking...:cool:

Yes each poster has a bias apparent or hidden depending on the interest s/he wishes to advance or protect and not necessarily revealed by the spurious declaration of stocks held.

I was speaking with an ANZ investment adviser recently and he told me that their rules mean they cannot go below 30% equities in their investment mix presumably because you can never pick the bottom of the market and experience tells them this is a good rule. However I also got the impression that if the rule were not there they would be holding less equities still. I find this quite scary for the near future of the market. I remain surprised by the so-slow implosion.

Oilers/energy are indeed the exception at present. Using energy is not an addiction we can withdraw from in a hurry given our all consuming energy intensive lifestyles. Yes, in the long run oil is going to run out. But we are a long way from that point yet in my view. And viable substitutes are being priced into the market. Oil too is a bubble and within the year my bet is that a lot of money will be burned in NZO and other oilers as the price responds to reduced consumption, and the holding costs of current stockpiles of oil at sea and elsewhere drive more onto the market. It will interesting to see how this all pans out.

[Kookaburra]

777 has an important point. There is now no temple for investors to worship at and commune and make social intercourse. These chat sites have arisen to fill a gaping need we all have to talk and test ideas and check our thinking. Dunk speaks of the gathering of information from big and small and distilling this into a kind of meta-knowledge that informs his investment actions. How much more would we learn if we talked face to face picking up non-verbal cues etc. - or would this complicate things with emotions that are much easier to put aside in this written medium?

Even so we still need community and I remain grateful for the generally constructive nature of this forum community. Thank you for the positive feedback.