Airlines r a great public service, endorsed by Skol.

[tricha]

Well Skol ,u had your opportunity.

I will give #1 of a lot of reasons why not to invest in airlines.


#1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNjZnRA2m68&feature=related

[tricha]

Oh boy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QovBLFZhQME&NR=1

[STRAT]

Oh boy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QovBLFZhQME&NR=1
Are you digging yourself a bunker and stockin up down there on the west coast too Tricha? :D

Doesnt that fella in Texas realize where he lives. Nobody else will prepare and when the **** does hit the fan and the last can of beans runs out they will come with guns and take it all off him.:D

[AMR]

Hi tricha,

Take a look at American airlines (AMR) on the NYSE. Doubled in two days!
US Airways (LCC) a two and a half bagger in 5 days!

The point is that airlines are crap investments but great pump and dump candidates when oil corrects. Someone has made serious money in the last week...

[Crypto Crude]

AMR,
ticker code is same as your user name...
I had alook at the chart on AMR (american Airlines) and the SP was higher in May than it is now... 25bucks in Sept 07, now $8.53...
gaining back some major losses perhaps...
As for LLC, the SP was two times higher in May than now... $30 in Sept 07, now 4.54...
Agreed, Airlines are poor investing stocks... anyone who suggests otherwise should be ripped apart by a mob of angry beasts in the Pit of Doom...
Yes perhaps someone has made some serious money over the last week, what about the other 99.9% of investors...
Skol, Sell your positions mate...
stick to toy planes....
errrrooooommmmnnnnnn....
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

Are you digging yourself a bunker and stockin up down there on the west coast too Tricha? :D

Doesnt that fella in Texas realize where he lives. Nobody else will prepare and when the **** does hit the fan and the last can of beans runs out they will come with guns and take it all off him.:D

Well he's got plenty of guns Strat :D I thought he would have a horse, but I guess with all that alchohol he will still be able to drive. Nah I have not got the bunker, but hey, 30 grape vines so that could be fun.:p

[Skol]

Well Skol ,u had your opportunity.

I will give #1 of a lot of reasons why not to invest in airlines.


#1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNjZnRA2m68&feature=related

I'm very busy for the next 36hrs Tricha,(airline business booming) but when I get a moment we will examine the relative performance of oil vs. airline shares since the date Bermuda challenged me to a contest of his worst oiler vs. QAN. Not looking good for Bermuda at the moment. Cheers

[STRAT]

Well he's got plenty of guns Strat :D I thought he would have a horse, but I guess with all that alchohol he will still be able to drive. Nah I have not got the bunker, but hey, 30 grape vines so that could be fun.:pId choose a good southern wine over Texas moonshine any day of the week ;):D

[tricha]

Id choose a good southern wine over Texas moonshine any day of the week ;):D

Yeah but the beauty of moonshine is u can run your car on it Strat :p

Sorry Skol, I would have prefered that u started this thread. Start another one if u would like, they r not my cup of tea.


11:27 AM, 28 Jul 2008 [/URL]
(javascript:favoris())

[URL="javascript:showEmail()"] (javascript: window.print();)


Stephen Bartholomeusz

Qantas' rising star





(http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Bill-Express-fallout-grows-GY9K6?OpenDocument&src=spb)



Given the context in which it is now operating, the Qantas board’s decision to appoint Jetstar’s chief executive, Alan Joyce, to succeed Geoff Dixon, is perhaps something of a surprise.

The personable Irishman was one of three very strong internal contenders for the job. The others were John Borghetti, who has very successfully managed the Qantas business, and chief financial officer Peter Gregg.

Either Borghetti or Gregg would have been seen as a safe pair of hands during a very turbulent and threatening period in the history of the Qantas group, with record oil prices threatening the viability of the entire industry and forcing Qantas and its global peers to take dramatic steps to enhance their ability to survive.

Only this month Dixon announced another severe reduction in capacity and 1500 job losses as Qantas seeks to mitigate the impact of the oil price and a slowing global and domestic economy.

The choice of Dixon’s successor was always going to be a delicate one given that, despite Dixon’s success in positioning Qantas as one of the most profitable and dynamic of the international carriers during his seven years at the helm, the environment in which the airline is operating remains in a challenging state of flux.

Joyce, 42, is an ebullient and entrepreneurial character who has done a terrific job of launching Jetstar, positioning it as the lowest-cost domestic carrier and building the fledgling outlines of an international network. He joined Qantas from Aer Lingus in 2003.

Jetstar has been the beneficiary of Dixon’s strategy of shifting lower-margin routes from the Qantas brands to the lower-cost carrier, but Joyce has managed that shift in capacity and volume seamlessly and the brand has won accolades within the international aviation community.

The additional challenge confronting him when he takes over from Dixon in November after the Qantas annual general meeting will be not only retaining Borghetti and Gregg but maintaining what has been a very stable and respected senior executive team, at a point where stability and experience is valuable.

The decision to appoint Joyce underscores what was already evident. The Qantas board sees Jetstar and its low-cost platform as the future of the Qantas group. The Qantas brand will remain, but it appears it will increasingly be targeted to higher-margin routes that attract business customers.

Given the increasing emphasis on Jetstar, it makes sense to appoint a CEO with Joyce’s background and experience in, not just the Jetstar brand and strategies, but low-cost carriers more generally.

The Qantas board may also feel that Joyce, who conveys an impression of, if not hyperactivity, then considerable energy, might be best suited to oversee a period of significant and rapid structural change in the group.

Qantas is preparing for the float of its frequent flyer program, it has plans for the future spin-outs of its freight interests and, if market conditions do improve, a vehicle that would own its fleet and leases.

When Dixon announced the capacity cuts earlier this month, Qantas’ international network was cut while Jetstar’s is likely to grow by 15 per cent-plus – the conditions are accelerating and amplifying the strategy of displacing Qantas with the Jetstar brand on the more marginal routes, both the domestic and, increasingly, the international routes.

The Qantas board and its relatively new chairman Leigh Clifford (he became chairman last November) have handled a difficult and potentially destabilising process well. It was good governance that the succession process was left to Clifford, the incoming chairman, rather than Margaret Jackson, the outgoing chairman.

Jackson and Dixon, in particular, deserve credit for ensuring there were a number of high-calibre internal candidates to choose from. There was never any real likelihood that Qantas would bring someone in from outside the group.

Dixon, of course, will go down in Qantas’ history as a pivotal figure. He has led the airline through a succession of threats and challenges, reinventing it continuously to maintain its reputation as one of the world’s best and most profitable carriers.

The launch of Jetstar and the continuing and substantial shift of Qantas volume onto a separately-branded lower-cost platform was, given the failure of similar attempts offshore, a remarkable achievement.

Dixon might be handing Qantas over to Joyce at one of the most difficult moments in the industry’s history – which is saying something, given the roller-coaster nature of the industry’s fortunes – but he will hand it over in pretty good shape, relative to its competitors.
http://bspecc.iguana2.com/bspectator/stock/QAN (http://marketdata.businessspectator.com.au/?M=stock-quote&Code=QAN)


Share This Story
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/digg.gif (http://digg.com/submit?phase=2&url=http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Qantas-rising-star-GY2Z6?OpenDocument&title=Qantas' rising star) http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/propeller.gif (http://www.propeller.com/submit/?U=http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Qantas-rising-star-GY2Z6?OpenDocument&T=Qantas'%20rising%20star&C=Alan%20Joyce%20has%20emerged%20from%20a%20strong %20field%20to%20be%20named%20Geoff%20Dixon's%20suc cessor.%20The%20appointment%20says%20a%20great%20d eal%20about%20the%20role%20of%20Jetstar%20and%20th e%20importance%20of%20its%20low-cost%20platform%20in%20the%20future.) http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/facebook.gif (http://www.facebook.com/share.php?u=http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Qantas-rising-star-GY2Z6?OpenDocument&t=Qantas' rising star) http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/reddit.gif (http://reddit.com/submit?url=http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Qantas-rising-star-GY2Z6?OpenDocument&title=Qantas' rising star) http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/delicious.gif (http://del.icio.us/post?url=http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Qantas-rising-star-GY2Z6?OpenDocument&title=Qantas' rising star)

[tricha]

Skol here is another bargain for u, u believe oil is going to crash. put your money where your mouth is :rolleyes:



Ryanair warns of loss next year


http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44550000/jpg/_44550658_ryanair226b_getty.jpg Ryanair will maintain "aggressive pricing" to lure passengers.


Ryanair has warned it could make an annual loss of up to 60 million euros (£47.4m) if oil prices stayed high and it continued cutting fares.
The budget carrier said net profits in the three months to the end of June had fallen by 85% to 21m euros - below analysts expectations.
And it added that it was yet to fully hedge the price it paid for oil.
Ryanair's downbeat predictions saw its shares fall 15% while British Airways slipped back 4.7% and Easyjet lost 10%.
Oil issues
The soaring price of jet fuel, combined with customers cutting back on flying, has seen many airlines struggle.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif The outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year, which is entirely dependent on fares and fuel prices, remains poor http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif


Michael O'Leary
Chief executive, Ryanair

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/inline_dashed_line.gif

Check Ryanair shares (http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/shares/3/24740/intraday.stm)


Chief executive Michael O'Leary said that Ryanair expected to break even at best in the year to March 2009, although he warned the company could lose up to 60m euros.
This compares with a profit of 480.9m euros in the previous year.
Ryanair's fuel bill now represents almost 50% of its operating costs, compared with 36% last year.
Oil hit $147 a barrel earlier this month - though recently it has fallen back to close to $130.
The airline said that the recent fall in prices had been used to hedge 90% of its fuel needs for September at $129 per barrel and 80% for the third quarter at $124 per barrel.
However it was still liable for the full cost of oil in the fourth quarter.
'Poor outlook'
Full fares were likely to fall by 5% as it battled for customers amid plunging confidence, it added.
"The outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year, which is entirely dependent on fares and fuel prices, remains poor," Mr O'Leary said.
He said it would look to maintain "aggressive pricing" in order to maintain high plane usage and would avoid fuel surcharges. Earlier this month, Ryanair said it would cut about 250 flights from Stansted this winter as it tries to offset the increased oil prices. And its rival Easyjet has said that it will cut flights over the winter to offset a challenging economic climate and the high fuel prices that have dented profit growth.

[AMR]

AMR,
ticker code is same as your user name...
I had alook at the chart on AMR (american Airlines) and the SP was higher in May than it is now... 25bucks in Sept 07, now $8.53...
gaining back some major losses perhaps...
As for LLC, the SP was two times higher in May than now... $30 in Sept 07, now 4.54...
Agreed, Airlines are poor investing stocks... anyone who suggests otherwise should be ripped apart by a mob of angry beasts in the Pit of Doom...
Yes perhaps someone has made some serious money over the last week, what about the other 99.9% of investors...
Skol, Sell your positions mate...
stick to toy planes....
errrrooooommmmnnnnnn....
:cool:
.^sc

Hi Shrewd,
Yes I deliberately chose AMR's ticker name as my username, I picked up the name while playing a stockmarket game (Wall$treet raider). I made a Buffett-like fortune by acquiring AMR after the US declared war on Iran and detonated a warhead in Tehran, and then selling out after the US flooded the world with cheap oil in the aftermath.

But yes, airlines are a **** investment in RL. As an industry they lose money half the time. It doesn't mean you can't take advantage of uptrends in the share price though and then dump them quickly.

[Skol]

Dear Readers,

Tricha an oil bull, with 100% invested in oil and no cash described me as having 'serious rocks in my head' (on or about 16 July) on this forum for suggesting airlines as an investment. Consequently he decided to start this thread to humiliate me for making such an idiotic suggestion .I never said you had to own them forever.

Here are the relative performance of Trichas liquid gold oil shares he says he owns vs. 3 airline shares from 16/7 to 28/7.

Trichas oil shares:

AZA -13%

COE -4.5%

NZO -12.6%

OEL -10.6%

3 Airline Shares

QAN +8.2%

AIR +13.6%

VBA +15%

Readers can decide for themselves which has been the better investment and with the oil price imploding my guess is Tricha's fortunes won't be turning around any time soon.

Might be time for a mayday call to Matt (Nostradamus) Simmons to re-schedule armageddon

[STRAT]

Yeah but the beauty of moonshine is u can run your car on it Strat :p

Yeah but who needs a car when you have a dirty big bunker, oops strike that, I mean a dirty big wine cellar :D

[tricha]

Yeah but who needs a car when you have a dirty big bunker, oops strike that, I mean a dirty big wine cellar :D

Well, why not have both,

Get pissed on the wine and then go driving in your alchohol induced vehicle. :p

The beauty of it the cops will be driving around on horses.:eek:

Oh and Strat, I've just taken a leaf out of your book.

[STRAT]

Oh and Strat, I've just taken a leaf out of your book.Really Tricha?:eek:

Which page?
for that matter which book?

[tricha]

Hmm, fuel = a bad day out for Skols airlines, the penny has dropped.

Soaring fuel bill hits BA profits


http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44872000/jpg/_44872328_ba226bbc.jpg BA's fuel bill is about £8m per day


British Airways has blamed a doubling of fuel costs for a sharp profits fall, saying the airline industry faced the "worst trading environment ever".
The carrier made pre-tax profit of £37m ($73.3m) in the three months to the end of June compared with £298m a year earlier - an 88% drop.
It also said it would cut 3% of flights this winter to reduce overheads.
Earlier this week BA announced that it was in merger talks with Spanish airline Iberia.
'Unprecedented' prices
BA said its fuel bill was expected to be £3bn in the year to the end of March - the equivalent of £8m per day.
However, it insisted it was "well prepared" with a focus on controlling costs.
"We are in the worst trading environment the industry has ever faced," said BA chief executive Willie Walsh.
"The combination of unprecedented oil prices, economic slowdown and weaker consumer confidence has led to substantially lower first quarter profits."
He added that the airline had managed to hedge some of its fuel costs in the quarter which "mitigated the impact" of rising bills, although they still rose by 49%.
The reduction in flights over winter would not "compromise its network", BA said.
The airline added that the proposed merger with Iberia would take months to finalise.
The deal is being seen as an attractive proposition for BA as it would allow it to reduce costs.
Terminal Five
The results are the first full quarter to include operations at Heathrow Airport's Terminal Five - used exclusively by BA.
BA said that more than six million passengers had gone through the terminal since 27 March and that it was going "from strength to strength". When Terminal Five opened, problems with its operations led to hundreds of flights being cancelled and the loss of thousands of bags. The embarrassment resulted in some executives leaving both BA and the Heathrow operator, BAA.

[Skol]

Might be bad in Europe tricha but OK here. Some of these aircraft are struggling to get off the ground they're so full. I know, I've seen it. Kiwis and Ockers are not keen to give up the travel despite the financial sky falling in.

[STRAT]

Dear Readers,

Tricha an oil bull, with 100% invested in oil and no cash described me as having 'serious rocks in my head' (on or about 16 July) on this forum for suggesting airlines as an investment. Consequently he decided to start this thread to humiliate me for making such an idiotic suggestion .I never said you had to own them forever.

Here are the relative performance of Trichas liquid gold oil shares he says he owns vs. 3 airline shares from 16/7 to 28/7.

Trichas oil shares:

AZA -13%

COE -4.5%

NZO -12.6%

OEL -10.6%

3 Airline Shares

QAN +8.2%

AIR +13.6%

VBA +15%

Readers can decide for themselves which has been the better investment and with the oil price imploding my guess is Tricha's fortunes won't be turning around any time soon.

Might be time for a mayday call to Matt (Nostradamus) Simmons to re-schedule armageddonGold for Skol in the 100m sprint.

I wont be counting Bermuda out in the marathon though ;)

or the 800m for that matter :D

[Skol]

Gold for Skol in the 100m sprint.

I wont be counting Bermuda out in the marathon though ;)

or the 800m for that matter :D

Here are Bermuda's picks, from 16/7

VPE -16%
NZO -7.5%
PRC -5%
BOW -5%
TEX -24%

Airlines

AIR +14%
QAN +7%
VBA +16%

[Crypto Crude]

Virgin Blue share price graph-
(still a virgin performance wise)...
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/VBA/1y/line/30/0/

AIR--->
performance----> "Fresh Air" New Zealand
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/NZSE/AIR/1y/line/30/0/

Quantas QAN- Share price graphhttp://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/QAN/1y/line/30/0/

Skol, yourve gone and bumped your head... check these charts out... QAN is not far off 10 year lows... Virgin 'performance' only just recently bounced off all time lows... Hey Skol, add my two picks to your list...
EPR at 5.3cents... and CUE at 21cents...
If I was locked in and had to buy a bunch of airlines, I chop my arm off to break a contract...
You see buddy... In ten years I'd buy a robotic arm... compare that to having airlines and no flash arm just the one ive already got....
Id go out in a blaze of glory with a chainsaw.... hahaha....
:cool:
.^sc

[trackers]

If I was locked in and had to buy a bunch of airlines, I chop my arm off to break a contract...
You see buddy... In ten years I'd buy a robotic arm... compare that to having airlines and no flash arm just the one ive already got....
Id go out in a blaze of glory with a chainsaw.... hahaha....
:cool:
.^sc

Wow...You have one hell of an imagination shrewdy

:p

[Crypto Crude]

trackers,
thats how against Airlines I am...
There aint no better way to lose money as an investor....
NZ finance companies are 'King Kong' compared to airlines...
For real....
:cool:
.^sc

[AMR]

Airlines are for TRADERS, not INVESTORS. They are good stocks for TAs to take money off Mary-Holm "Buy and Hold" types. MoSteph over on the NZX forum grabbed a quick 20% off AIR recently, and AIR was a 2 bagger over the last 3 years (1.3->3.3). Not quite up there with NZO but it still beats the others.

[Skol]

trackers,
thats how against Airlines I am...
There aint no better way to lose money as an investor....
NZ finance companies are 'King Kong' compared to airlines...
For real....
:cool:
.^sc

Let's check your picks since 16/7

AKK -20%

LMP -4%

CTPOA -30%

CTP -25%

CUE -2%

LMPO - So illiquid who knows.

Mmmmm-airlines not so bad after all.

[Crypto Crude]

skol,
over the last five years my stocks have gone up every year including this year..
over the last five years those airline stocks and most others have trended down... your small window of performance over the last two weeks is laughable....
The biggest weightings on my portfolio are CUE and LMP/LMPO...
only holding around 10% on CTP/CTPOA...
I just sold AKK before at 21cents...
I could not be happier this year apart from Central, and selling a few more LMPO's at the top...
thanks for clearing that up skol...
Id rather stroll with one arm at my side than holding airline stocks... I make no bones about that....
catch you round....
later..
:cool:
.^sc

[Skol]

skol,
over the last five years my stocks have gone up every year including this year..

So have everyone's stocks. A monkey throwing darts could've outperformed the index.

Airline stocks have declined because of the POO. Let's see how it goes from now on.

"BERMUDA,BERMUDA, this is SKOL, do you read?"

[Oiler]

Airlines are for TRADERS, not INVESTORS. They are good stocks for TAs to take money off Mary-Holm "Buy and Hold" types. MoSteph over on the NZX forum grabbed a quick 20% off AIR recently, and AIR was a 2 bagger over the last 3 years (1.3->3.3). Not quite up there with NZO but it still beats the others.

AMR you are so right. Airlines are for traders :D...... I wouldnt touch them with a forty foot pole but hey MoSteph (and others) are very technical traders and know what they are doing.:cool:

I was going to say "shrewd" traders but thought I would cop the wrath of the Crude Shrewd. ;);)

[tricha]

AMR you are so right. Airlines are for traders :D...... I wouldnt touch them with a forty foot pole but hey MoSteph (and others) are very technical traders and know what they are doing.:cool:

I was going to say "shrewd" traders but thought I would cop the wrath of the Crude Shrewd. ;);)

U R on to it Skol, get that oil price down :) The above from Oiler, does this mean u r a trader ? Skol, as from memory u have implied u do not hold airline shares at the moment.



Fuel costs hit Air France profits


http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44804000/jpg/_44804694_airfranceplane_af.jpg Air France-KLM has increased fares to counter rising costs


Rising fuel prices and slowing economic growth have hit quarterly profits at airline Air France-KLM.
Net profits for the April to June period were down nearly 60% from a year ago to 168m euros ($261m; £133m).
Passenger numbers rose 3.7% in the quarter compared with a year earlier, even though the airline raised fares to counter higher costs.
Many airlines are cutting routes and increasing fares, and predict tougher times ahead for the industry.
Last week, British Airways said the airline faced the "worst trading environment ever," as it reported a 88% fall in pre-tax quarterly profit for the three months to June. And budget carrier Ryanair recently warned it could see an annual loss of up to 60m euros. Last month, Air France said it was in talks about a possible joint-venture with French utility firm Veolia to operate several rail services, a move that analysts say could help the airline reduce costs.

[Skol]

Yep, aviation stocks are a bummer all right, only up 169% in a week.


http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/07/post-7.html

[h2so4]

Here's one for you skol.

May 16 - Ethiopian Scores High in its Nine Months Performance

Ethiopian Airlines recorded strong results in many of its performance parameters during the nine months of the fiscal year 2007/08. Based on the preliminary reports, Ethiopian generated 6.6 billion birr operating revenue during the nine months which is 29% up from last year. A net profit of 484 million birr is recorded for this period which is appreciably higher than the same period last year. Ethiopian transported 1.9 million passengers, a 19% increase as compared to the previous year. “This performance was achieved as a result of the hard work and dedication of Ethiopian employees, astute leadership of the management team, the strong support from the Airline’s customers and other stakeholders,” said Ato Girma Wake, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Ethiopian.

The substantial improvements in revenue and traffic growth were attributed mainly due to the apparent capacity growth in terms of increased frequency, introduction of new flights on the international sector, from cargo revenue as well as other service categories.

The total operating expenses during the nine months increased by 21%. Fuel cost representing the lion’s share was followed by aircraft/engine lease and payroll expenses. The CEO, Ato Girma Wake noted, "Fuel price remains of concern to the industry as a whole and Ethiopian believes that costs will continue to escalate into the next quarter given the present trend in price of fuel."

The major activities during the nine months of the budget year included:

Leasing one B757-200 passenger aircraft
Launching service to Abu Dhabi and Zanzibar
Implementation of Codeshare agreement with Gulf Air and Air One
Signing an agreement with Boeing to acquire two MD-11 Freighter aircraft
Leasing two B747-200 freighters pending the delivery of the MD-11s
Entering into partnership with Lufthansa on Frequent Flyer Programme
Installing B737-NG Simulator
Despite the escalating fuel price and stiff competition, Ethiopian scored the highest revenue and profit ever. All stakeholders of the airline contributed to this success and its employees were at the frontline. Ethiopian management takes this opportunity to express its appreciation to all the stakeholders.

About Ethiopian

Ethiopian Airlines, www.ethiopianairlines.com, one of the largest and fastest growing airlines in Africa made its maiden flight to Cairo in 1946. The airline currently serves 50 destinations around the globe, 30 of which are in Africa. The addition of services to Kuwait effective June 02, 2008 will bring the total number of the Airline’s international destinations to 51.

Ethiopian will be the first carrier to operate the Dreamliner-B787 in Africa, the Middle East and Europe.

In 2006 and 2007 Ethiopian has earned three different awards respectively from the African Aviation Journal, the African Times/USA, and the Government of Ghana for its best performance in the commercial air transport industry.

PR & Publication
May 16, 2008



Search :





ShebaMiles LOGIN
Member Number:

Password:


* Get password [members]
* New registration
* Forgot password?
* Branch office login






MORE @ ETHIOPIAN
* Surplus Sales
* FAQ
* ETHIOPIAN Destinations
* Send Your Comments
* Contact Information

[tricha]

Yep, aviation stocks are a bummer all right, only up 169% in a week.


http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/07/post-7.html



Cathay goes from profit to loss


http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44797000/jpg/_44797478_cathay_afp_226b.jpg Cathay is not alone in having to deal with the impact of surging fuel prices


Hong Kong-based airline Cathay Pacific has reported a half-year loss as a result of higher fuel costs.
The carrier reported a net loss of 663m Hong Kong dollars ($84.95m; £43.4m) in the six months to June, compared with a profit of $HK2.58bn a year earlier.
"Global aviation is making a painful adjustment to the new reality of $100+ oil" said chairman Christopher Pratt.
Many carriers have been hit by rising fuel prices and have reacted by cutting routes and raising fares.
On Tuesday, Spanish airline Iberia reported a half-year loss and Air France-KLM said that second-quarter profits had fallen by 60%. Cathay Pacific said it was cutting costs where it could but that there was a limit to how much could be saved before quality and its brand were compromised. A report by the International Air Travel Association (IATA) issued on Monday said that the situation for the airline industry would get "a lot worse", and that the sector could see losses of $6.1bn (£3bn) this year.

[Skol]

Update on trichas get-poor-quick Texas Tea shares. Since 16/7.


AZA -18.4%

COE -7%

NZO -9%

OEL -12%

Airline shares.

AIR +15.5%

QAN +7%

VBA +26%

Oil fell overnight to $117.11

[tricha]

Update on trichas get-poor-quick Texas Tea shares. Since 16/7.


AZA -18.4%

COE -7%

NZO -9%

OEL -12%

Airline shares.

AIR +15.5%

QAN +7%

VBA +26%

Oil fell overnight to $117.11

Hey Skol have u got any shares or r u just a blow a... :confused:

[tricha]

Hey Skol have u got any shares or r u just a blow a... :confused:

A bit like Phaedrus (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?u=4593) likes to bag, but does not disclose, gutless really.

[Skol]

A bit like Phaedrus (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?u=4593) likes to bag, but does not disclose, gutless really.

Yes I do.
ALL, PDN, CRJ, PPX, CFU, NAM

I'm just bagging you because you started the thread and said I had seriously large rocks in my head for making the suggestion that in the case of a reversal in the oil price airlines might be a way of making a dollar.

Here's a contrarian bet-Japan. Will recover before DJIA does. I have some dosh in the BT Japan fund.

[tricha]

Yes I do.
ALL, PDN, CRJ, PPX, CFU, NAM

I'm just bagging you because you started the thread and said I had seriously large rocks in my head for making the suggestion that in the case of a reversal in the oil price airlines might be a way of making a dollar.

Here's a contrarian bet-Japan. Will recover before DJIA does. I have some dosh in the BT Japan fund.

Come on Skol, I asked u to start this thread, u r welcome to it.

Unless oil goes down to $90 a barrell, my way of thinking is they are both basket cases.
If history has anything to do with things, China owe Japan a punch or two ;), so expect no favours. Its great to see u have come out of the closet Skol :)

Japan Economy Probably Shrank as Recession Looms (Update1)

By Jason Clenfield
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&iid=ivbNvi2u.GRM
http://images.bloomberg.com/r06/news/enlarge_details.gif (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=photos&sid=aq1d.GZ0LA7s)

Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economy probably contracted last quarter, bringing the country to the brink of its first recession in six years, as exports fell and consumers spent less.
Gross domestic product (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=JGDPAGDP%3AIND) shrank an annualized 2.3 percent in the three months ended June 30, according to the median estimate of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Cabinet Office will release the report on Aug. 13 at 8:50 a.m. in Tokyo.
Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Yasuo+Fukuda&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), who last week replaced his economic ministers in a bid to boost his popularity, is planning relief measures to help companies and consumers cope with record energy costs. Toyota Motor Corp. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=7203%3AJP) yesterday reported the biggest drop in earnings in five years as U.S. sales slumped.
``What you're going to see is a long, slow, modestly painful recession,'' said Robert Feldman (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Robert+Feldman&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), head of economic research at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo. ``It's going to fall heavily on both workers and stock holders who are suffering lower returns as profits come down.''
Exports probably fell 2.4 percent last quarter, robbing Japan of the engine that drove growth over the past six years, according to economists surveyed. Shipments abroad increased every quarter except one since the most recent recession in 2001.
The economy probably shrank (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=JGDPQGDP%3AIND) 0.6 percent from the first quarter, when it grew 1 percent, about twice the average pace of the expansion that began in 2002. Net exports -- the difference between exports and imports -- subtracted 0.1 percentage point from growth, economists said.
Toyota Cuts Forecast
Toyota, Japan's biggest company, yesterday cut its sales forecast for the year ending March 2009 by 3.5 percent to 8.7 million vehicles. Since June, Toyota has fired 800 workers at a Kyushu-based subsidiary, where the company is cutting production of sport-utility vehicles and Lexus sedans bound for the U.S.
``The Toyota story is totally consistent with the macro data,'' said Kiichi Murashima (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kiichi+Murashima&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), chief economist at Nikko Citigroup Ltd. in Tokyo. ``Companies have been quick to get rid of workers in response to slowdowns in some sectors.''
The unemployment rate (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=JNUE%3AIND) jumped to 4.1 percent in June from 3.8 percent three months earlier. Wage growth (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=JNLSUCTL%3AIND) is also slowing.
Summer bonuses at the country's biggest companies, which tend to pay more than their smaller counterparts, dropped this year for the first time since 2002, according to a survey by the Keidanren business lobby.
Bank of Japan
Domestic demand, which includes company and consumer spending, probably accounted for 0.5 percentage point of the economy's quarter-on-quarter contraction. The figures for household spending (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=JHHSLERY%3AIND) will probably exaggerate the decline from the first quarter, when the leap year gave consumers an extra shopping day in February, economists said.
The government yesterday said the economy is ``weakening'' for the first time since 2001. The worsening economy and the fastest inflation in a decade will compel the Bank of Japan to keep its benchmark interest rate (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BOJDTR%3AIND) at 0.5 percent for the rest of the year at least, according to economists surveyed last month.
Still, analysts say the current slowdown is unlikely to be as severe as past recessions because the corporate sector is better able to handle higher costs and weakening U.S. demand. Businesses have trimmed excess debt, workers and capacity, Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kaoru+Yosano&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) said yesterday.
``Most of the measures suggest that things aren't as good as they were 12 months ago, but it's nothing like 2001, 1998, or 1993,'' said Richard Jerram (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Richard+Jerram&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), chief Japan economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Tokyo.
Capital Investment
Companies plan to increase capital investment by 4.1 percent in the year ending March, according to a survey released this week by the Tokyo-based Development Bank of Japan. While that's slower than last fiscal year's 7.7 percent, it's better than the 10 percent decline recorded during the 2001 recession.
The Bank of Japan's most recent business survey showed that labor demand is close to a 16-year high (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=JTEMELM%3AIND). The jobs-to-applicants ratio (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=JBTARATE%3AIND) was at 0.91 in June, meaning almost every person who wants a job can get one. During the previous recession seven years ago, there were two applicants competing for every position.
``When you say recession, it triggers images of 1998 or 1993,'' Jerram said. ``You're having a period of sub-par growth, but it's not the sort of downturn we saw three times during the previous 15 years.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Clenfield (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Jason+Clenfield&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) in Tokyo at jclenfield@bloomberg.net (jclenfield@bloomberg.net)
Last Updated: August 8, 2008 00:03 EDT

[Skol]

tricha, let me quote you.

"Unless oil goes down to $90 a barrel they're both basket cases".

I think you're onto it, and here's me thinking you're a bit dim for hanging on to those death defying oil shares.

Japan's been in the doldrums for years and hasn't got anywhere near the problem the rest of the world's facing with massive personal debt, property slumps, bankruptcies, mortgage defaults, etc. It's not the beginning of the end of the recession in the West, its not even the end of the beginning.

Oil will continue it's nosedive because the demand destruction will be more or less permanent. Yen and Japanese market will recover first.
Japan still the world's second biggest economy.

[shasta]

tricha, let me quote you.

"Unless oil goes down to $90 a barrel they're both basket cases".

I think you're onto it, and here's me thinking you're a bit dim for hanging on to those death defying oil shares.

Japan's been in the doldrums for years and hasn't got anywhere near the problem the rest of the world's facing with massive personal debt, property slumps, bankruptcies, mortgage defaults, etc. It's not the beginning of the end of the recession in the West, its not even the end of the beginning.

Oil will continue it's nosedive because the demand destruction will be more or less permanent. Yen and Japanese market will recover first.
Japan still the world's second biggest economy.

I tend to agree Skol, Japan will recover before the US etc...

So are you after Japanese airlines? :D

[Skol]

I tend to agree Skol, Japan will recover before the US etc...

So are you after Japanese airlines? :D

Actually I don't own any airlines, probably should do with POO the way it is.

I remember very vividly watching the TV in LA during the Congressional hearings into the Enron collapse. Jeffery Skilling and Ken Lay implored the staff to load up on shares even as those scumbags unloaded millions of dollars of theirs. ($60m in the case of Skilling I believe). So when Enron collapsed employees not only lost their jobs they lost their savings as well.

Since I work in the airline industry I don't own shares in the airlines. (Unless I come across some real good inside info)

www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOdWxf1tRmI

[shasta]

Actually I don't own any airlines, probably should do with POO the way it is.

I remember very vividly watching the TV in LA during the Congressional hearings into the Enron collapse. Jeffery Skilling and Ken Lay implored the staff to load up on shares even as those scumbags unloaded millions of dollars of theirs. ($60m in the case of Skilling I believe). So when Enron collapsed employees not only lost their jobs they lost their savings as well.

Since I work in the airline industry I don't own shares in the airlines. (Unless I come across some real good inside info)

www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOdWxf1tRmI (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOdWxf1tRmI)

I was being a tad cheeky to be fair, am watching your airline competition v oilers with interest.

I picked $105/bbl in the POO comp ;)

[shasta]

with the current exchange rate, this could be a great site;)

http://www.foreclosedjapan.com/


some 4bed homes in Chiba (NE of Tokyo) for $20k AUD:D

lol, Qantas officials admitted the delay was to refuel with the POO a $1 cheaper !

QANTAS grounds jet

More trouble for QANTAS: the airline has grounded a jet in Sydney because of technical problems

9 August 2008
http://home.nzcity.co.nz/photos/business-travel-qantas-plane2.jpg
More trouble for QANTAS today: the airline has grounded a jet in Sydney because of technical problems.

The San Francisco-bound flight was due to leave just before 2pm but now passengers have to wait until 9 o'clock tonight to fly out.

[Skol]

lol, Qantas officials admitted the delay was to refuel with the POO a $1 cheaper !

QANTAS grounds jet

More trouble for QANTAS: the airline has grounded a jet in Sydney because of technical problems

9 August 2008
http://home.nzcity.co.nz/photos/business-travel-qantas-plane2.jpg
More trouble for QANTAS today: the airline has grounded a jet in Sydney because of technical problems.

The San Francisco-bound flight was due to leave just before 2pm but now passengers have to wait until 9 o'clock tonight to fly out.

All this won't do much for QF's share price but you could've bought AIR (up 12.7% since 16/7) or VBA (up 37.6% since 16/7).

See what happens to Shrewd Crude's and tricha's oil shares tomorrow following the plunge in the POO after our markets closed.

[Crypto Crude]

me old mate skol...
I will explain this further on the peak oil thread...
as it is predominately an oil issue...
Ive said my piece on airlines...
trading stocks---> not investing stocks...
In terms of finding value in airlines---> there is none...
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

Yes I do.
ALL, PDN, CRJ, PPX, CFU, NAM

I'm just bagging you because you started the thread and said I had seriously large rocks in my head for making the suggestion that in the case of a reversal in the oil price airlines might be a way of making a dollar.

Here's a contrarian bet-Japan. Will recover before DJIA does. I have some dosh in the BT Japan fund.

Hmm when did u buy these, end of June 2008 ? or 2007


NAMNAMOI COTTON CO-OPERATIVE LIMITED CCU
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/NAM/1y/line/30/0/

[tricha]

Yes I do.
ALL, PDN, CRJ, PPX, CFU, NAM

I'm just bagging you because you started the thread and said I had seriously large rocks in my head for making the suggestion that in the case of a reversal in the oil price airlines might be a way of making a dollar.

Here's a contrarian bet-Japan. Will recover before DJIA does. I have some dosh in the BT Japan fund.

we'll try this one. Would it rely on high oil prices, hmm :rolleyes:


CFUCERAMIC FUEL CELLS LIMITED FPOhttp://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/australia.gif http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/CFU/1y/line/30/0/ Line Type LineCandlestickOHLCPercent Period 1 Month2 Months3 Months6 Months1 Year2 Years5 Years10 Years

[tricha]

Yes I do.
ALL, PDN, CRJ, PPX, CFU, NAM

I'm just bagging you because you started the thread and said I had seriously large rocks in my head for making the suggestion that in the case of a reversal in the oil price airlines might be a way of making a dollar.

Here's a contrarian bet-Japan. Will recover before DJIA does. I have some dosh in the BT Japan fund.

tell me bought 1st week July 2008 :confused:


PPXPaperlinx Limited FPOhttp://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/australia.gif http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/PPX/2y/line/30/0/ Line Type LineCandlestickOHLCPercent Period 1 Month2 Months3 Months6 Months1 Year2 Years5 Years10 Years
Moving Average 1 5 day10 day30 day60 day90 day120 dayNone
Moving Average 2 10 day30 day60 day90 day120 day180 dayNone

[tricha]

Yes I do.
ALL, PDN, CRJ, PPX, CFU, NAM

I'm just bagging you because you started the thread and said I had seriously large rocks in my head for making the suggestion that in the case of a reversal in the oil price airlines might be a way of making a dollar.

Here's a contrarian bet-Japan. Will recover before DJIA does. I have some dosh in the BT Japan fund.

Hmm I hope u did not buy them to long ago :eek:

CRJCOPPER RANGE LIMITED FPOhttp://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/australia.gif http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/CRJ/2y/line/30/0/

[tricha]

Yes I do.
ALL, PDN, CRJ, PPX, CFU, NAM

I'm just bagging you because you started the thread and said I had seriously large rocks in my head for making the suggestion that in the case of a reversal in the oil price airlines might be a way of making a dollar.

Here's a contrarian bet-Japan. Will recover before DJIA does. I have some dosh in the BT Japan fund.

If u bought this ones 2004 -2005 , well done :)

Hmm, Uranium needs expensive oil and gas to be a roaring success :rolleyes:

PDNPaladin Resources Limited FPOhttp://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/australia.gif http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/PDN/5y/line/30/0/ Line Type LineCandlestickOHLCPercent Period 1 Month2 Months3 Months6 Months1 Year2 Years5 Years10 Years
Moving Average 1 5 day10 day30 day60 day90 day120 dayNone

[tricha]

Yes I do.
ALL, PDN, CRJ, PPX, CFU, NAM

I'm just bagging you because you started the thread and said I had seriously large rocks in my head for making the suggestion that in the case of a reversal in the oil price airlines might be a way of making a dollar.

Here's a contrarian bet-Japan. Will recover before DJIA does. I have some dosh in the BT Japan fund.

Arr, the gambler in u, a contrarian bet, getting a beating at the moment though. :rolleyes:

ALLAristocrat Leisure Limited FPOhttp://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/australia.gif http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/ALL/5y/line/30/0/ Line Type LineCandlestickOHLCPercent Period 1 Month2 Months3 Months6 Months1 Year2 Years5 Years10 Years
Moving Average 1 5 day10 day30 day60 day90 day120 dayNone

[Skol]

No it hasn't been all plain sailing, but PDN an oil play. Sold most but still have a few.
PPX recovering, so far so good.
NAM used be about 10% commodity stock that missed out.
Bought ALL recently.
CFU-hoping to cash in on the 'green' craze but hasn't worked out-yet.
CRJ-speculation-has acreage adjacent to Olympic Dam.

[tricha]

No it hasn't been all plain sailing, but PDN an oil play. Sold most but still have a few.
PPX recovering, so far so good.
NAM used be about 10% commodity stock that missed out.
Bought ALL recently.
CFU-hoping to cash in on the 'green' craze but hasn't worked out-yet.
CRJ-speculation-has acreage adjacent to Olympic Dam.

At least u have a very diversified portfilo Slol. :) and no airline shares, thats a plus.

PDN an energy play, we eat it, energy = food.

It's interesting times and very unpredictable. ;)

[Skol]

From 16/7.

QAN + 10.4%
AIR + 14.5%
VBA + 46%

I don't like to rub it in but if you check the oil stocks I think you'll find there's been a bit of "acceptance", if I can use that word setting in today.

[BRICKS]

From 16/7.

QAN + 10.4%
AIR + 14.5%
VBA + 46%

I don't like to rub it in but if you check the oil stocks I think you'll find there's been a bit of "acceptance", if I can use that word setting in today.


AT 96 cents its not to late to grab the shirt tail up to $1.25.. that`s VBA..

[Skol]

QAN down .12 today, maybe to do with continuing maintenance problems. A lot of chat on the internet about QF outsourcing maintenance offshore and the quality of the work. Who knows, but you often get what you pay for.
This is what happened in Kuala Lumpur when maintenance guys (not pilots) taxiied the aircraft without hydraulics.

www.1001crash.com/latest/2001/SAA_B747_im1.jpg

This was a worse one though. Brand new too.

http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/03Cb0N244Ncwx/610x.jpg

[Skol]

Achtung tricha,

I've got a confession to make. I broke my golden rule and bought a few VBA the other day. I couldn't resist the temptation, I just cracked under the pressure of watching it go up every day.

Since 16/7 up 67%.

[BRICKS]

UP 26% in one day could go to to $1.25 / 30 with out much trouble don't listen to WINGERS..

[Skol]

UP 26% in one day could go to to $1.25 / 30 with out much trouble don't listen to WINGERS..

Could do even better-article in the Waikato Times yesterday singing the praises of Pacific Blue, all part of the same organisation.

[AMR]

Wow. Airline shares especially looking pretty similar to those CFD mini-HSI fututres which I play with on odd occasions. I will definitely be adding them onto my watchlist, they're like miners but with an inverse correlation to oil prices and better suited for TAs. The charts support your buying position Skol, gave a pretty decent buy signal back at 55c.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture.php?albumid=5&pictureid=40
Of special bullishness is the OBV plot, which is now signalling incredibly strong buying pressure. As for myself I will be buying on the next dip, or maybe air new zealand.

[BRICKS]

BRICKS be nimble, BRICKS be quick and read of the annual and dumped half of the holding

Will see how it will pan out but you had to be , QUICK..

[Skol]

I'm still hanging in there,
POO now $110.
Seems like nothing will stop the downtrend, war, hurricane, and dollar rising.

[tricha]

Achtung tricha,

I've got a confession to make. I broke my golden rule and bought a few VBA the other day. I couldn't resist the temptation, I just cracked under the pressure of watching it go up every day.

Since 16/7 up 67%.


Virgin Blue struggling to stay in the black






Steve Creedy | August 20, 2008

VIRGIN Blue's share price collapsed yesterday after the airline reported a 55 per cent fall in annual profit and could not guarantee investors that it would remain profitable this year.
The company revealed a thin $5 million second-half profit, warned the year ahead would be the most challenging in the airline's history and held out little hope for any growth in yield.
It added to the uncertain outlook by failing to declare a dividend, a move that helped drive the share price down 28 per cent, or 32c, to 84c.
The stock might take another hit on Friday when Toll Holdings shareholders take ownership of their shares in the airline.
Virgin's 2007-08 net profit fell to $97.2 million from $216 million in 2006-07, as the airline grappled with high fuel prices and a surge in capacity that outstripped demand.
The result included one-off after-tax charges of $42.8 million for new projects such as the launch of its VAustralia international service and domestic flights in New Zealand, as well as the introduction of new Embraer aircraft and new product.
The profit was at the high end of Virgin's guidance, and better than analysts' expectations, but not enough to prompt the airline to pay a dividend.
Underlying net profit fell 36.5 per cent to $140.5 million and revenue per available seat kilometre was almost flat.
JPMorgan analyst Matt Crowe said the airline's outlook was grimmer than anticipated.
"Their statement that it would be a challenge to be profitable and they don't expect yields to increase at all is pretty grim," he said.
Mr Crowe said the airline's share price had taken off in the lead-up to the result without any obvious reason but it was now back to a "reasonable spot", given current fuel prices.
But he noted the illiquid nature of the stock made it hard to make sense of day-to-day trades.
That would change on Friday when ownership of most of Toll's 62.7 per cent stake in the company transferred to shareholders as part of an in specie dividend.
Mr Crowe predicted many Toll shareholders would probably want to sell the stock, although others were likely to pick it up if prices tanked.
"You've just got a lot people who probably don't want to hold that sort of company," he said.
"They've bought Toll for a growth company, not an airline, and when they get the airline they'll probably part with it."
Shaw Stockbroking analyst Brent Mitchell was also unsurprised by the result.

"With the outlook, really it's self-evident that fuel prices, capacity and yield are going to be key factors going forward and they're difficult to predict in current circumstances," he said.

Mr Mitchell said takeover speculation could have been behind the ramp-up in Virgin's share price.

"Whether there was speculation on a takeover or not, I'm not too sure, but I wouldn't expect anything corporate to happen in the current environment ... for at least another one or two years," he said.

"You've got the Virgin Group sitting there and I don't think they've got the wherewithal to do anything at the moment."

Earlier, Virgin chief executive Brett Godfrey told reporters that the airline's domestic market had been particularly challenging in the second half and "fuel inputs played havoc with the cost base".

"During the second half to June, fuel, and jet fuel in particular, broke more records than the Australian swimming team," he said.

Mr Godfrey said Virgin Blue and Pacific Blue were expected to remain profitable this financial year if current market conditions and fuel prices held, but VAustralia would lose $55-$65 million.

Most of this would be pre-operational costs, but the airline would lose about $18 million because the aircraft would be under-utilised for the first year.

He warned that the airline expected tough conditions for up to three years but noted that Virgin had implemented a range of measures in recent months to mitigate the impact of increase fuel costs.

These included a $5 increase in average ticket prices across more than half its domestic routes, a 12 per cent cut in capacity growth, the redeployment of aircraft to international operations and a $50 million cost-cutting program.

[Skol]

tricha,
Yes, that was bit unexpected.
However since 16/7

AIR +13.6%

QAN +7.9%

VBA -3%

Still much better than AZA COE NZO OEL.

[BRICKS]

BRICKS is back in with an increased holding this morning to big a drop the curve will rise again and the planes will be doing there best don't forget the large increase in REVENUE
of cash MONEY..

[h2so4]

CapEx for airlines are enormous and must be maintained during tough economic times.Competition? It doesnt get any tougher in any industry.Forget price, where is your reasoning?

[Crypto Crude]

tricha,
Yes, that was bit unexpected.
However since 16/7

AIR +13.6%

QAN +7.9%

VBA -3%

Still much better than AZA COE NZO OEL.

hahahaaha... unexpected... VBA down 29%... then down 29% again the very next day... now down 10% today...its about to hit fresh lows...
As I said Skol, add My CUE and EPR To that list Skol....
this is a no contest over the medium/longer term...
:cool:
.^sc

[Skol]

hahahaaha... unexpected... VBA down 29%... then down 29% again the very next day... now down 10% today...its about to hit fresh lows...
As I said Skol, add My CUE and EPR To that list Skol....
this is a no contest over the medium/longer term...
:cool:
.^sc

As I've previously mentioned, the average bear market plunge for oil is 33%. That means there's a 50% chance that oil will drop below $97 so good luck with the oilers, you're going to need it.

[tricha]

As I've previously mentioned, the average bear market plunge for oil is 33%. That means there's a 50% chance that oil will drop below $97 so good luck with the oilers, you're going to need it.

Skol u do not get it do u, oil at $100 a barrel is stll a great price.

And then the peak, oh yeah the peak ( 2005) and then " The Decline " soon :confused:

U R one sick puppy, holding magic beds.:D Air beds :(

[drillfix]

As I've previously mentioned, the average bear market plunge for oil is 33%. That means there's a 50% chance that oil will drop below $97 so good luck with the oilers, you're going to need it.

Skol,

Who honestly knows or can tell with these markets and global conditions.

War starts, War finishing or pausing, Russia and Georgia, who knows where everything is going, the world is basically and unpredictable place, or for those who keep trying to predict it keeps getting proved alternatively, or so it seems~!

ps: this is not a ramp, or down ramp of oil~!

[tricha]

Hi Skol

Hmm what can I say, at least u had the guts to disclose and made a mistake or 10, like most of us , except for the Mighty One who has never lost a trade ;)
I wonder what the T\A experts would say about this one, but then again they will only be telling history.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/australia.gif http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/VBA/1y/line/30/0/ Line Type LineCandlestickOHLCPercent Period 1 Month2 Months3 Months6 Months1 Year2 Years5 Years10 Years
Moving Average 1 5 day10 day30 day60 day90 day120 dayNone
Moving Average 2 10 day30 day60 day90 day120 day180 dayNone

[Robomo]

I hear from a couple of reasonably reputable sources that Air New Zealand is doing due diligence on Virgin Blue. At it's current share price it might be a cheap way of AIR (AIZ-ASX) buying into the Aus domestic market, which is NZ's biggest tourist market.

However, given the Ansett debacle I'm sure Air NZ would be treading very cautiously!

[Phaedrus]

I wonder what the T\A experts would say about this one?
You don't tell us what stock this is Tricha, which makes things a little difficult, but my guess is that it is VBA. Am I right?

All this year, VBA was in a steep (and accelerating) downtrend. There was a confirmed trendline in place, and all price action was below a 30 day Moving average. On 9/7/08, VBA gapped up (this is Bullish) breaking the confirmed trendline and giving a Buy signal. It is considered a little risky to act on the basis of a single signal in isolation, but this "Buy" signal was confirmed the very same day when VBA broke above the 30 day moving average that had held good all this year. These signals gave an entry into VBA at 55 cents.

VBA went into a strong, steep uptrend until it gapped down (this is Bearish) on 19/8/08 breaking below both the established trendline and the 30 day moving average. This well confirmed "Sell" signal gave an exit at 84 cents.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/VBA824.gif

Of course not all trades are so spectacularly successful, but this is a nice illustration of how the application of even the most basic TA can assist in the timing of buying and selling stocks.

[soulman]

Not sure about this, and this may be factored in already to the large fall in VBA over the past few days, over 600 million of VBA shares are about to hit the market starting tomorrow from the TOL distribution.

With oil falling $6 on the weekend, I suspect VBA will bounce a little on Monday.

[tricha]

Not sure about this, and this may be factored in already to the large fall in VBA over the past few days, over 600 million of VBA shares are about to hit the market starting tomorrow from the TOL distribution.

With oil falling $6 on the weekend, I suspect VBA will bounce a little on Monday.

WELL Skol, looks like u failed to do your homework, I know the feeling, I did that with Perilya :(, Soulmans on to it though.

More blues in store for Virgin Blue
http://images.theage.com.au/2008/08/24/188338/svVIRGIN-470x0.jpg Virgin Blue's share price faces reverse thrust. Photo: Jim Rice



Matt O'Sullivan
August 25, 2008


VIRGIN BLUE faces downward pressure on its share price for weeks as institutional investors who gained a slice of the airline courtesy of Toll Holdings wait for the chance to sell.
The airline's stock tumbled almost 19% to close near an all- time low on Friday, the first day in which Toll Holdings' shareholders could trade the Virgin stock they received after the transport company last month decided to offload most of its 62.7% stake in the carrier.
"Our preference would be not to hold them, but I'm not sure we are going to sell them at 49¢," Argo Investment managing director Rob Patterson said of Virgin shares his company gained via its stake in Toll. "We just have to wait and see."
Macquarie Equities has warned that many Toll shareholders are unlikely to be long-term holders in airlines, suggesting some will dump their Virgin shares.
Mr Patterson agreed that institutional shareholders were unlikely to be "enthusiastic" about holding Virgin shares because the airline sector was highly volatile.
He said there just "so many variables", such as volatile oil prices and slowing passenger growth.
"I just don't think it's what you would call a core holding in an institutional portfolio," he said.
But he doubted fund managers would be selling Virgin — in which billionaire Richard Branson has a 25.5% stake — while it was trading at near all-time lows.
Virgin last week announced a 55% fall in full-year profit to $98 million, due mainly to fuel prices more than doubling over the past year.
Merrill Lynch has forecast Virgin to post a $57 million bottom-line loss this financial year, due in part to the airline spending as much as $65 million on its long-haul carrier, V Australia. Goldman Sachs JBWere has estimated a loss of almost $39 million.
Meanwhile, Deustche Bank analyst Cameron McDonald said he believed it would take at least two weeks for Virgin's share register to stabilise.
Virgin shares lost 58% last week, closing down 11¢ at 48¢ on Friday.
http://www.virginblue.com.au (http://www.virginblue.com.au/)

[BRICKS]

VBA new shares or old TOLL shares are now on the market some 650 approx million of them
which makes VBA a free standing company with all its washing hagging out with NO new surprises,, As stated above there is going to be a lot of adjustments for the next two weeks
so when it calms down VBA will be in a better state but you mite miss a bargain @ these
prices so dive in..

As to the comments about AIR buying VBA cant see it happening as where would the money come from cant say the GOV because they have just been stretched buying the KIWI RAILWAYS so if you can answer that question it would solve the PUZZEL..

[h2so4]

VBA is not cheap. Its business is fundamentally down. With 1b CapEx spent this year and average capital costs of 540m its return on invested capital was -9.18%. Its owner earnings this year came in at -200m. By all means Bricks "dive in" but there are no gold medals here.

[BRICKS]

VBA is not cheap. Its business is fundamentally down. With 1b CapEx spent this year and average capital costs of 540m its return on invested capital was -9.18%. Its owner earnings this year came in at -200m. By all means Bricks "dive in" but there are no gold medals here.

Rather a dull statement as VBA is in a massive change in life and new capital construction
and we don't really know who owns what or the top twenty shareholders as stated it will take a couple of weeks for this to settle, but looking at the turnover which is very large
some one is buying up big to get a toe in who it is so that's the big question..

VBA is not BROKE and is bigger than AIR but its not a mature airline only been around a few
years but growing but at these current prices it is a good time to "dive in" but you have to have money not excuses like h2so4 not to got NO MONEY,, have a go sometimes it pays OFF..

[Dr_Who]

As to the comments about AIR buying VBA cant see it happening as where would the money come from cant say the GOV because they have just been stretched buying the KIWI RAILWAYS so if you can answer that question it would solve the PUZZEL..

I too cant see AIR buying anything in Aussie after the Ansett disaster. What a mess that was, with special thanks to the previous AIR chairman.

AIR and SIA would have been a perfect marriage.

[AMR]

At the time of Ansett's collapse, weren't there rumours floating around that AirNZ had approached VBA but got rebuffed?

[trackers]

Air New Zealand profit falls by a quarter (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10529053)




Air New Zealand has no further plans to cut capacity on long haul flights despite crippling fuel prices which imposed an extra $300 million cosdt over the past year.
The airline posted a 24 per cent drop in profit for the year to June 30, with normalised earnings dropping to $197 million.
This was despite a 9.1 per cent boost in operating revenue, up $388m to $4.667 billion for the year.
Air New Zealand has already replaced Boeing 747s with smaller Boeing 777s on some services to London.
Air New Zealand chief executive Rob Fyfe said the network was still under review but no further capacity cuts were planned "at this stage."
By the end of the year one, possibly two fuel hungry 747s could be parked up on the tarmac.
Fyfe warned of a tough year ahead.



http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10529053

[BRICKS]

At the time of Ansett's collapse, weren't there rumours floating around that AirNZ had approached VBA but got rebuffed?

AT the time of the A/ collapse VBA was not even BORN..

[AMR]

AT the time of the A/ collapse VBA was not even BORN..

Not as VBA, just as Branson's private airline.

http://parlinfoweb.aph.gov.au/piweb/repository1/media/npaper_3/ioc760.pdf

[h2so4]

Rather a dull statement as VBA is in a massive change in life and new capital construction
and we don't really know who owns what or the top twenty shareholders as stated it will take a couple of weeks for this to settle, but looking at the turnover which is very large
some one is buying up big to get a toe in who it is so that's the big question..

VBA is not BROKE and is bigger than AIR but its not a mature airline only been around a few
years but growing but at these current prices it is a good time to "dive in" but you have to have money not excuses like h2so4 not to got NO MONEY,, have a go sometimes it pays OFF..

No not excuses just facts. VBA is burning cash like it burns fuel. If as you say VBA is in turn around mode then I would wait until it has turned around and not taxied off the runway.

[BRICKS]

No not excuses just facts. VBA is burning cash like it burns fuel. If as you say VBA is in turn around mode then I would wait until it has turned around and not taxied off the runway.


BRICKS did not say VBA was doing anything and its not burning cash as you state [what ever that means] ,, What was said its a new ball game about its capital construction now that TOLL walked away and it has not disclosed the top twenty shareholders which when known will have a large factor in its new DIRECTION>>

[BRICKS]

Not as VBA, just as Branson's private airline.

http://parlinfoweb.aph.gov.au/piweb/repository1/media/npaper_3/ioc760.pdf


NO such thing..

[h2so4]

BRICKS did not say VBA was doing anything and its not burning cash as you state [what ever that means] ,, What was said its a new ball game about its capital construction now that TOLL walked away and it has not disclosed the top twenty shareholders which when known will have a large factor in its new DIRECTION>>

And I did not say VBA was "BROKE". Burning cash simply means spending more than you earn."Turn around","new direction" whatever wait till it happens. But if you are all excited by all means jump in just make sure you are wearing goggles because the water aint that clear.

[BRICKS]

And I did not say VBA was "BROKE". Burning cash simply means spending more than you earn."Turn around","new direction" whatever wait till it happens. But if you are all excited by all means jump in just make sure you are wearing goggles because the water aint that clear.

VBA is not spending more than it earns made 90 million profit and all your silly statements
rather than what really is happening you not a buyer bad LUCK..

[h2so4]

VBA is not spending more than it earns made 90 million profit and all your silly statements
rather than what really is happening you not a buyer bad LUCK..

"Whats really happening"?????????
Rather than my "silly statements" why dont you check out VBA's 08 cashflow statements money in, money out, simple stuff. Net cash flow in $293m. Net cash flow out $995m. Big problem here.
I'm not Einstein but I do know enough to spot weak earnings and problems from a mile away.

Correct I am not a buyer.
Airlines are OUT

cheers

[BRICKS]

"Whats really happening"?????????
Rather than my "silly statements" why dont you check out VBA's 08 cashflow statements money in, money out, simple stuff. Net cash flow in $293m. Net cash flow out $995m. Big problem here.
I'm not Einstein but I do no enough to spot weak earnings and problems from a mile away.

Correct I am not a buyer.
Airlines are OUT

cheers

ENOUGH crap GOOD BYE..

[Grand Uber]

hes' got you there H2so4

[h2so4]

hes' got you there H2so4

I guess.R well win some lose some.

[Skol]

Most airlines with a bit of capital are quick off the mark when it comes to cost cutting when it becomes necessary, but the most crucial problem is the POO and IMHO that will be solved shortly.
There was a mention in a UK paper the other day that some hedge funds have sustained some huge losses trading the POO and the EUR/USD.

Since 16/7 QAN up 17%.

[h2so4]

Most airlines with a bit of capital are quick off the mark when it comes to cost cutting when it becomes necessary, but the most crucial problem is the POO and IMHO that will be solved shortly.
There was a mention in a UK paper the other day that some hedge funds have sustained some huge losses trading the POO and the EUR/USD.

If I owned a small business that required oil to provide a service or manufacture a product I would pass those increasing costs on to the consumer,but if I owned a business that required capital to cut costs, like you say, I would sell it. I think the problems are deeper than POO. But time will tell.

I still HOPE you make lots of money with your investment in airlines.
cheers

[Skol]

On CNBC, Chief Investment Officer of a broking firm says oil will fall, dollar will rise and they are buying companies sensitive to that like Boeing and Federal Express.
And right now oil down $1.60.

[Huang Chung]

On CNBC, Chief Investment Officer of a broking firm says oil will fall, dollar will rise and they are buying companies sensitive to that like Boeing and Federal Express.
And right now oil down $1.60.

But to be fair Skol, there have also been plenty of talking heads on CNBC calling a bottom at around $110 before going back up. One I saw the other day was predicting $160 a bbl.

[tricha]

But to be fair Skol, there have also been plenty of talking heads on CNBC calling a bottom at around $110 before going back up. One I saw the other day was predicting $160 a bbl.


Zoom Airlines suspend all flights


http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44966000/jpg/_44966677_groundedplane226.jpg One of the grounded planes was due to leave Glasgow on Thursday.


Transatlantic budget carrier Zoom Airlines has suspended all flights and is applying to go into administration.
Thousands of passengers due to fly with Zoom have been told to rebook with other carriers, and to contact credit or debit card issuers about refunds.
Earlier, two of the airline's jets were held at Glasgow and Cardiff airports.
UK-Canadian Zoom blamed its problems on the "horrendous" price of jet fuel - which had added $50m (£27.3m) to annual fuel bills - and the economic slowdown.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif This was supposed to be a holiday of a lifetime for my wife and I http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif


William Moonie
Would-be Zoom passenger

Passengers hit by Glasgow grounding (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/glasgow_and_west/7586718.stm)



Zoom, which has flown since 2001, employs 450 staff in Canada and 260 staff in the UK.
It operated flights from London Gatwick, Glasgow, Manchester, Cardiff, Belfast, Cardiff as well as Paris and Rome.
And it flew to eight destinations in Canada, New York, San Diego, Fort Lauderdale and Bermuda.
'Desperately sorry'
"We are very, very sad and disappointed that we thought we could pull through this very difficult situation," Zoom's co-founder Hugh Boyle told BBC News.
"We had some financing in place, but sadly it didn't come quick enough to avert some of the creditors who came in today to seize one of the planes which resulted in a domino effect of the situation that we're faced with".
In a statement, Mr Boyle and his brother, John added they "deeply regretted" having to suspend all Zoom operations.
"It is a tragic day for our passengers and staff," they said.
"We are desperately sorry for the inconvenience and disappointment that this will cause passengers and those who have booked flights.
"We have done everything we can to support the airline and left no stone unturned to secure a re-financing package that would have kept our aircraft flying."
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifWHAT SHOULD ZOOM AIRLINES' PASSENGERS DO?


Any Zoom flight you have booked will not be departing. If you still wish to travel, Zoom recommends contacting other carriers and lists several on its website



If your flight is part of a package holiday originating from the UK, you may be able to CAA's Air Travel Organiser's Licence scheme.



If you have paid for Zoom flight, contact your credit card or debit card issuer to see if they can refund some or all of your money

Source: Zoom Airlines

They added that hopes of securing a new investment package to ensure future operations had failed, meaning administration procedures had to begin.
Zoom said BA and Virgin Atlantic were offering "special" fares for passengers whose flights had been cancelled.
Trip jeopardy
The announcement came after one of its planes was detained at Glasgow Airport for non-payment of air traffic control charges.
Meanwhile passengers on a flight from Cardiff were told to get off their Zoom plane, which was then impounded.
One of the passengers due to fly from Glasgow to Vancouver said he had been told on Thursday morning that there was a "technical difficulty" with the aircraft, and that the plane would not leave until 11pm.
"Then at 7 o'clock the British airport authorities started telling us that Zoom Airlines had entered into administration and basically that we could go home," William Moonie told BBC News.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif They had based their business model on oil prices of about $70 or $80. When it topped $140, Zoom simply could not cope http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif


Simon Calder
Travel editor, The Independent


"This was supposed to be a holiday of a lifetime for my wife and I. I've just retired from the fire service after 30 odd years and my wife is 50 this year.
"We were going to have a celebration holiday. We were supposed to go on a cruise to Alaska and supposed to go to the Rocky Mountains by train."
He added he was hopeful that, because his flight was part of a package holiday, he may be covered by the CAA's Air Travel Organiser's Licence (ATOL) scheme.
Cutting back
A number of other budget long-haul carriers have gone into administration in recent months including Hong Kong to London carrier Oasis and business class transatlantic firms Eos, Maxijet and Silverjet.
The rising cost of oil - which topped $147 a barrel in July - has led to aviation fuel bills soaring.
"They had based their business model on oil prices of about $70 or $80," said Simon Calder, travel editor of The Independent.
"Once it topped $140 they simply could not cope."
He added that "tens of thousands" of passengers were likely to suffer.
Airline analysts say that with consumers being more cost-conscious, many were cutting back on luxury spending such as travel. Are you due to travel on Zoom? Have you been affected by any issues raised in this story?

[BRICKS]

THE big question in Sydney is who is buying VBA at 30+ million a day turnover who are the
buyers of coarse every one saying MR B..

[Skol]

THE big question in Sydney is who is buying VBA at 30+ million a day turnover who are the
buyers of coarse every one saying MR B..

I've been pretty busy the last few days (airline business humming) and I see what you mean, average 40.6m shares/day.

[biker]

Ive bought into VBA over the last few days, averaging (50.5 cps), but don't think I've caused the major effect on turnover! :-)

[Skol]

Ive bought into VBA over the last few days, averaging (50.5 cps), but don't think I've caused the major effect on turnover! :-)

Nice work, you're already 15% ahead. If the POO drops this should do well, summer coming on, holidays looming. The peak oilers you'll have noticed have subtley switched from "we're running out of oil" to the "wars and storms" script.

[h2so4]

Nice work guys, keep it up, refresh,refresh,refresh.:)

[biker]

It would seem the Toll holdings distribution is gradually being mopped up. Lots of digruntled shareholders willing to give their shares away but that supply will eventually dry up. Will be interesting to see if there is in fact a buyer of significance building a stake. Some big players obviously see some future value.

[tricha]

Alitalia seeks bankruptcy measure


http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44970000/jpg/_44970634_781741c6-0709-4006-9509-966ed4df102f.jpg Negotiations with unions will be critical to saving the airline


Troubled Italian airline Alitalia has applied for bankruptcy protection as it tries to agree a deal to ensure its long-term survival.
The carrier has sought court protection from its creditors, effectively declaring itself insolvent.
An administrator will be appointed to handle the process, with flights continuing while the firm plans a radical overhaul of its operations.
Losing 2m euros (£1.6m) a day, Alitalia has survived on a 300m-euro state loan.
Plans are being drawn up to split the carrier into two and to sell a stake in a new entity to a foreign airline.
Split in two
Guaranteeing the airline's future will depend on securing fresh investment and persuading its unions to accept large job cuts.
Both Air France KLM and Lufthansa have expressed interest in investing in any new entity which emerges from the current business.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif No one can buy Alitalia in the state it's in... the business is toast http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif


Roberto Colaninno


Earlier on Friday, Corrado Passera, head of the airline's financial advisers Intesa Sanpaolo, confirmed that Alitalia's board was drawing up a request to seek bankruptcy protection.
The move will give the firm breathing space to reach agreement on how the business can proceed.
The government adopted new measures on Thursday aimed at speeding up bankruptcy proceedings, widely interpreted as a signal that Alitalia was set for such a course of action.
Future plans for the carrier would see it divided in half, with its loss-making operations remaining under bankruptcy protection and potentially being liquidated.
Profitable short-haul routes would be separated into a new business, controlled by a consortium of Italian investors including budget airline Air One which would effectively be merged with Alitalia.
Italian media have speculated that the new firm will employ 7,000 fewer staff than Alitalia's current 19,000 strong workforce and operate flights to about 50 fewer destinations.
Italian ownership
Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has made Alitalia's continued ownership by Italian interests a precondition of any rescue deal.
However, experts have said the airline - of which the government owns 49% - can only survive in the future as part of some European alliance.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44971000/jpg/_44971379_9b7ed71f-d3a0-4b55-835a-f52863096111.jpg Silvio Berlusconi wants to keep the airline in Italian hands


Previous attempts to sell the business to a foreign airline have foundered over union concerns about job losses and unease over the severity of the airline's financial problems.
The airline's perilous position was put into perspective by Roberto Colaninno, appointed to take charge of the new entity that emerges from the restructuring.
"No one can buy Alitalia in the state it's in," he told La Repubblica newspaper.
"With all respect, I am not Merlin the magician. The business is toast. It doesn't exist any more. There's nothing left."
Alitalia has been crippled in recent years by strategic indecision, poor industrial relations and soaring fuel costs. Its shares were suspended earlier this summer while the firm has delayed the release of its 2007 accounts.

[h2so4]

Tricha I see you still have your ear to the ground. Is this one a Mazda????

[Skol]

Airlines do make a profit even in difficult times. QAN records $970m profit.

www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/21/2342294.htm

[h2so4]

Airlines do make a profit even in difficult times. QAN records $970m profit.

www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/21/2342294.htm

Yes they did, overstated by a $100m in my books. Still, about a 7% cash return on invested capital (not a particularly attractive return). Huge long term debt though $4b. The liabilities look good, they exceed assets by about $2b.The numbers are looking fragile, but a good year for the kangaroo.

[BRICKS]

THE big investment house UBS has come out with a statement that next price rise for VBA will be 80 cents from the current price is a 33% possible RISE..

[h2so4]

THE big investment house UBS has come out with a statement that next price rise for VBA will be 80 cents from the current price is a 33% possible RISE..
Its now become a break up value play????
I wonder if UBS is connected to the big buyer of all those VBA shares?

[BRICKS]

TWO notices out today one from Virgin [UK] they state there holdings have not changed but who knows for how long and two from the COMMONWEALTH BANK with a holding of 5.44%
that's a total of 57,179,077 million share so they have been in the market another
12 million today so there are big BUYERS..

[BRICKS]

HAVE not seen this type of turnover for VBA ever now running into Million & millions the
brokers must be loving it but they never say THANKS..

[tricha]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNjZnRA2m68&NR=1

[tricha]

WELL, oil has only just taken a step down in OZ $, Americian airlines are the only ones getting the benifit of the oil price drop, why the Americian dollar has gone up so much has got me beat, record debts .........

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40426000/jpg/_40426839_usflags.jpg (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7610498.stm) http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif Oil prices swell US trade deficit (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7610498.stm)

Surging oil prices help push the US trade gap to $62.2bn in July, its widest deficit since March 2007.


Crunch talks for ailing Alitalia


http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44970000/jpg/_44970634_781741c6-0709-4006-9509-966ed4df102f.jpg Alitalia's future depends on crucial rescue talks in Rome


Talks are under way in Rome to try to save the bankrupt Italian airline Alitalia from collapse.
Unions are meeting the Italian government-backed investor group CAI that is leading the rescue bid for the stricken airline.
Alitalia, which is losing more than 2m euros ($2.8m;£1.6m) a day, is surviving on a state loan of 300m euros.
But the company's nine unions are divided over whether or not to back CAI's plan.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif Everyone is well aware that the only alternative is the failure of the company http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif


Maurizio Sacconi, Italian Welfare Minister


The CAI's aim is to takeover Alitalia's best assets and relaunch the airline as a smaller carrier with fewer staff.
Job cuts
Some union leaders have warned they would reject deep job cuts among the group's 20,000-strong workforce. Analysts said between 5,000 and 7,000 jobs could be lost.
Welfare Minister Maurizio Sacconi warned that there were few options left for the cash-strapped carrier.
"I am hopeful because everyone is well aware that the only alternative is the failure of the company with all the consequences for the workers and the country in general."
The head of the CISL union Raffaele Bonanni said his union was prepared to sign the deal if certain conditions were met.
The CISL wants new investors to commit to staying with Alitalia for at least five years.
Under the state-backed rescue plan, profitable short-haul routes would be separated into a new business. The unprofitable ground services and cargo businesses would be sold off or wound down.
Alitalia's fate has proved a headache for previous and current governments.
Italy's former leader Romano Prodi tried and failed to auction the government's controlling stake in the airline. A later attempt to sell the stake to Air France-KLM collapsed after unions blocked the deal.
Italian ownership
Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has said he wants Alitalia to remain in Italian hands.
Two weeks ago, the government declared the airline bankrupt to give the firm breathing space to agree a fresh rescue plan. Alitalia's problems have been compounded by poor industrial relations and soaring fuel costs. The minister charged with overseeing the firm's bankruptcy said the two sides must reach a deal by Friday.

[h2so4]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNjZnRA2m68&NR=1

When are airlines going to stop flying? Care for a lunch bet?

[tricha]

When are airlines going to stop flying? Care for a lunch bet?

Oh no airlines will never stop flying, just the amount will change as the short video suggests.

30 airlines expected to fail

4:00AM Monday Sep 15, 2008


Up to 30 more airlines will go bankrupt before Christmas, the chief executive of British Airways warned yesterday, as the biggest rescue of stranded passengers in industry history began.
Willie Walsh said the scenes of chaos in which 85,000 passengers have been stranded around the world after the collapse of XL, Britain's third largest holiday company, would become a familiar sight as the travel industry struggled with soaring fuel costs and the global economic downturn.
"We are in the worst trading environment the industry has ever seen", said Walsh. "We have already seen 30 or so airlines go bust this year and it would be fair to expect a similar number of casualties worldwide over the next three to four months."
Walsh also announced up to 1400 redundancies at his own airline yesterday. Italian airline Alitalia was also on the brink of collapse yesterday.
Travel industry experts said smaller airlines and tour operators were most at risk and warned passengers to book in a way that ensured they got their money back if an airline went bankrupt.
British Airways said its programme of redundancies, which are for now voluntary rather than compulsory, was the final stage of a restructuring plan launched in 2005. The airline has unveiled a series of measures designed to counter a crippling rise in its jet fuel bills, expected to total £3 billion ($8.097 billion) this year, 50 per cent more than in 2007.
- INDEPENDEN

[Skol]

There will be a few airlines go broke, probably the ones with no cash to weather the present storm, but the POO is crashing and the established airlines will be the winners because people know they're going to get where they want to go. Less competition too.
If you think about it there's not too many businesses where you pay for everything in advance, sometimes months and occasionally years in advance.

[h2so4]

There will be a few airlines go broke, probably the ones with no cash to weather the present storm, but the POO is crashing and the established airlines will be the winners because people know they're going to get where they want to go. Less competition too.
If you think about it there's not too many businesses where you pay for everything in advance, sometimes months and occasionally years in advance.

"probably the ones with no cash"... or..... can't generate enough cash for its operations?? Because every day it cant do that is another day it will need to dip further into, savings, assets, or debt.

[h2so4]

Hey BRICKS and skol, bought myself a ticket today.:) At 44cents it is priced at 50% less than its book value. That has to be cheap....right? Mind you that price is at the top of my range so I only bought a few.

I think Phaedrus will be the next poster? I know your lurking somewhere come out you P.

[BRICKS]

Living in a Motel at the end of the runway at AIX. Gold Coast Airport and the first thing at
6.00am. each day in comes VIRGIN and arrivals all day are common so VBA is alive and well,
Well the turnover continues to be in the millions and now short selling is band some sort of picture mite form but until the annual meet and report..

By the way the temp is 27 c..

[Crypto Crude]

skol,
your airlines are coming down... and that's not just the planes getting ready to land...
:cool:
.^sc

[BRICKS]

BRICKS reported on the 1/9/2008 that the COM BANK had 5.44% of VBA well yesterday they dropped below 5% so they are trading in millions that's why the price is so unstable
but if it falls more they could return with a rush so members you too can join in the
" BIG PLAY "..

[BRICKS]

WELL OIL is below $100 @ $96 what can you say they will be giving it away soon so cheaper air fuel but the Airlines a still chugging along at the same rate so why are prices so cheap, the mob is SCARED..

[Skol]

My experience recently is that people have not stopped flying, some aircraft are chokka.

[lakedaemonian]

My experience recently is that people have not stopped flying, some aircraft are chokka.

If I wanted to make a million dollars investing in airlines I'd probably need to start with 5 million. :)

I've been traveling heaps this past year........I've also noticed airlines far more full or likely to be at capacity than at any time in recent memory.

SO I can see better capacity utilization from my anecdotal experience........but I've also seen flights cancelled due to insufficient passengers booked.....

Lots of planes being removed from fleets......older, less efficient aircraft...as well as reduction in models flown to reduce logistics/support costs........

But I still wouldn't invest a penny in any airline......

Too vulnerable to direct/indirect cost volatility in energy and security/biosecurity to name but two.......and incredibly capital intensive.

The final nail in the coffin is that due to airline deregulation and pretty much every major route has multiple carriers, that makes the airlines pricetakers, rather than pricemakers.

[Skol]

If I wanted to make a million dollars investing in airlines I'd probably need to start with 5 million. :)

I've been traveling heaps this past year........I've also noticed airlines far more full or likely to be at capacity than at any time in recent memory.

SO I can see better capacity utilization from my anecdotal experience........but I've also seen flights cancelled due to insufficient passengers booked.....

Lots of planes being removed from fleets......older, less efficient aircraft...as well as reduction in models flown to reduce logistics/support costs........

But I still wouldn't invest a penny in any airline......

Too vulnerable to direct/indirect cost volatility in energy and security/biosecurity to name but two.......and incredibly capital intensive.

The final nail in the coffin is that due to airline deregulation and pretty much every major route has multiple carriers, that makes the airlines pricetakers, rather than pricemakers.

You must have heard that joke about how to make a small fortune in aviation-start with a big one.

[BRICKS]

SKOL you have to have FAITH in your convictions and still go with your airlines they are getting cheaper every day this is the GLOOM your been waiting for and it has ARRIVED
go out and BUY remember all the stories about how people got rich they bought when no body would BUY, be a leader SKOL and tell us your there to the END.!!

[Dr_Who]

My experience recently is that people have not stopped flying, some aircraft are chokka.

You still have your airline stocks? Which stock are you still holding?

[Skol]

SKOL you have to have FAITH in your convictions and still go with your airlines they are getting cheaper every day this is the GLOOM your been waiting for and it has ARRIVED
go out and BUY remember all the stories about how people got rich they bought when no body would BUY, be a leader SKOL and tell us your there to the END.!!


I'm overseas at the moment enjoying cheap airfares. Are any of you lot contrarians? I told you all to to buy a car when the oil price was $147. I did, it was a good deal.
Anyway BRICKS, what have you been buying lately that's been outperforming the market?

[BRICKS]

WHILE the sky has been falling in for most stocks VIRGIN AIRLINES with a t/o 10 million a
day has held its own and not budge from 35 CENTS

[upside_umop]

Sorry, its a reasonably old article, but i particulary like the bit 'Aviation is a tough business. From 1947 to 2000, the world's airline industry profit averaged less than a 1% return to investors.' Given that in 2001 a lot of airlines went bust, and since then even more have gone under....you would have to say that they are now in a loss position? Airlines are more of a public service and airlines dont gain themselves from the positive externalties associated with flying on their bottom line...


Critics of Air New Zealand need to remember the recent history of aviation in this country more clearly, writes BRUCE TULLOCH.


The Press's editorial of August 24, Air NZ blue, is remarkable in its echoes of similar pronouncements 20 years ago, extolling the wondrous prospects of more airline competition while ignoring the lessons of real experience.

It welcomes the entry of Australia's Pacific Blue to New Zealand's internal routes, stating "competition will be hugely beneficial", declaring this move is more likely to succeed than previous efforts, coming from a competitor with deep pockets not an "underfunded start-up, driven by a starry-eyed dreamer".

Amazingly, this ignores the 13 years when Air New Zealand withstood intense and predatory competition from Ansett, a large and experienced Australian carrier owned 50/50 by Rupert Murdoch's massive News Corporation and Thomas Nationwide Transport, the huge freight conglomerate – tough competitors, the complete antithesis of impoverished and starry-eyed dreamers.

In 1986, Labour was remodelling New Zealand. Ansett was keen to expand into this country. Newmans Air, competing with Mount Cook Airline, was making big losses.

"More competition" being the mantra, the Government decided to open domestic aviation to overseas investors. Richard Prebble said the national interest would be protected by certain safeguards, one being a maximum of 50 per cent foreign ownership.

Newmans Air was reformed as Ansett NZ, Newmans holding 22.5%, Ansett 50% and Brierley Investments 27.5%.

Airlines are a glamour industry and there was much interest. Anticipated benefits were tirelessly proclaimed by Labour and supporters of the Rogernomics bandwagon. There was also considerable misinformation and denigration of Air New Zealand.

That all the significant New Zealand newspapers were owned either by Murdoch's News Corporation or Brierley was, no doubt, coincidental.

The Government, however, had done no research. It soon appeared it was not alone. Reality hit Newmans and Brierley rapidly. By 1988, Ansett was making losses it could not sustain and it bailed out.

Faced with the unpalatable failure of its predictions, Labour abandoned its supposed "safeguards of the national interest" and, to avoid serious embarrassment, let the Australians take over completely.

Freed from any constraints from New Zealand shareholders wanting profits, Ansett stepped up predatory competition, selling fares below cost.

By 2000, after 13 years with Air New Zealand still surviving, the Australians gave up and sold out to a group of New Zealand businessmen.

Ansett admitted to accumulated losses of some $300 million but this is likely to have been a major understatement as the new owners took only a year to lose another $100 million and collapse the airline. Unsecured creditors finally got back 15 cents in the dollar.

Aviation is a tough business. From 1947 to 2000, the world's airline industry profit averaged less than a 1% return to investors.

In this environment, Air New Zealand held out against artificially subsidised internal competition but at a great cost. Staff numbers and wages were slashed, full-time employees replaced by part-timers.

Accounting staff were sacked in Auckland and the work sent to Mexico. More recently, there was a serious proposal to close heavy-engineering facilities in New Zealand and send maintenance to China.

Adding to the woes, in 1988 Labour sold Air New Zealand. A 34.9% share went to foreign airlines. Brierley took the bulk of the rest as controlling shareholder. Brierley, in turn, was taken over by Singapore's Camerlin Investments. Air New Zealand was now effectively foreign owned.

By 2001, it had been so run down that the Government was forced to belatedly remember the national interest and find $550 million to regain ownership. That competent and dedicated New Zealanders kept the airline functioning through these years should be a source of pride.

Now The Press extols Pacific Blue, whose majority shareholder is Toll, the giant Australian company which already runs our railways (and wanted to cancel the Auckland- Wellington passenger services), operates the Cook Strait ferries and dominates road freighting. Is this reassuring?

The Press declares that Air New Zealand must compete – and then complains because it does so successfully. It bemoans fares on secondary routes, simultaneously complaining that provincial charges are too high while Air New Zealand has ruthlessly crushed competition, presumably by keeping fares too low.

Smaller aircraft with shorter hops are inherently more expensive to operate.

This is why Ansett didn't, Qantas doesn't and Pacific Blue won't fly to Westport, Wanganui, Whakatane or Whangarei.

Air New Zealand is a New Zealand company successful in a demanding global market. It has demonstrated efficiency against extreme domestic and international competition. Staff productivity is high, engineering standards draw business from overseas.

Profitable again after the Brierley debacle, its returns are certainly not excessive. A major employer in Christchurch, it makes a great contribution to our nation.

Why then, do we once again see such emotive negative comment, totally bereft of factual analysis or verification?

* Bruce Tulloch retired in 2003 after 44 years in aviation, with NAC and then Air New Zealand.

[tricha]

WHILE the sky has been falling in for most stocks VIRGIN AIRLINES with a t/o 10 million a
day has held its own and not budge from 35 CENTS

Tis a weird world

[Skol]

The airline industry is boom or bust. Big profits or big losses, I've been in it 40 years. It's subject to all kind of weird occurrences whether it's Osama Bin Laden, war, security checks, an accident, it's a business that's always in the papers.

It also attract larger than life people and unfortunately many of them are morons.

Airlines are much bigger than just NZ.

It's much more diverse than someone as naive as UMOP who is allegedly 22, would have you believe. Some airlines make fortunes out of war, technology cargo from China to the US and Europe, famine, the Haj, racehorses, political change and ad hoc charters.

If it's such a lousy business why is there probably 10 times the number of airlines now than 40 years ago?

One of the reasons is that there's lots of people with plenty of guts and the tenacity to stick with a venture that's a heap of fun and if UMOP has half the thrills, enjoyment and buzz I've had out of my life then he should consider himself an extremely lucky man indeed.

[tricha]

The airline industry is boom or bust. Big profits or big losses, I've been in it 40 years. It's subject to all kind of weird occurrences whether it's Osama Bin Laden, war, security checks, an accident, it's a business that's always in the papers.

It also attract larger than life people and unfortunately many of them are morons.

Airlines are much bigger than just NZ.

It's much more diverse than someone as naive as UMOP who is allegedly 22, would have you believe. Some airlines make fortunes out of war, technology cargo from China to the US and Europe, famine, the Haj, racehorses, political change and ad hoc charters.

If it's such a lousy business why is there probably 10 times the number of airlines now than 40 years ago?

One of the reasons is that there's lots of people with plenty of guts and the tenacity to stick with a venture that's a heap of fun and if UMOP has half the thrills, enjoyment and buzz I've had out of my life then he should consider himself an extremely lucky man indeed.

Naive, have a look in the mirror and see who's naive.

Theres this gem of a book " Who Moved my Cheese " by Dr Spencer and it would be worth your while to get hold of a copy, it deals with something most humans dread, CHANGE.

World oil production peaked in 2005 and a man of your traveling, must realise that 1,300,000,000 Chinese want their share of oil, whats left of it anyway. 1,000,000,000 Indians want your share as WELL.
65,000,000, Saudis want a piece of it as WELL, and then theres another 2,000,000,000 people in the world as WELL that would like to have a piece of our OIL.

It's called "Change"

P.S Upside Umop, that was a great article u presented, keep up the good work.

[upside_umop]

The airline industry is boom or bust. Big profits or big losses, I've been in it 40 years. It's subject to all kind of weird occurrences whether it's Osama Bin Laden, war, security checks, an accident, it's a business that's always in the papers.

Your right. Still doesnt hide the fact that airline are unprofitable long term....or short term if you look at today. Still, I agree, you could make big money. I was merely pointing out the facts that they wont make you a dime if your a passive investor.


It also attract larger than life people and unfortunately many of them are morons.

Like Warren Buffet?


Airlines are much bigger than just NZ.

Hmmm


It's much more diverse than someone as naive as UMOP who is allegedly 22, would have you believe. Some airlines make fortunes out of war, technology cargo from China to the US and Europe, famine, the Haj, racehorses, political change and ad hoc charters.

Show me which one of these to invest in for sustainable long term shareholder returns. Did you say some? Ok, ok...I am buying a powerball ticket for this Saturday...you have to be in to win, right? Oh yes, I am 22.


If it's such a lousy business why is there probably 10 times the number of airlines now than 40 years ago?

Its called de-regulation.


One of the reasons is that there's lots of people with plenty of guts and the tenacity to stick with a venture that's a heap of fun and if UMOP has half the thrills, enjoyment and buzz I've had out of my life then he should consider himself an extremely lucky man indeed.

I'm glad you have had fun working in airlines, unfortunately I wont be in one myself. I'm sure I'll have fun working in those horrid investment banking structures they run in London. Airlines are good, but only to the fact that they provide a public service. I remain convince they yield low returns.

[upside_umop]

I've flown with them. Got food poisoning on their fish :(

Their shareprice has doubled in 20 years. I guess that reasonable if they have maintained their dividends.

They are the worlds best airline, so I guess its got to be expected.

[Skol]

I'm glad you have had fun working in airlines, unfortunately I wont be in one myself. I'm sure I'll have fun working in those horrid investment banking structures they run in London. Airlines are good, but only to the fact that they provide a public service. I remain convince they yield low returns.

As I said in a previous post I was at Canary Wharf the other day watching the bankers get their marching orders. Have fun, you'll probably be working for nothing.

www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=acCv7J8ELRuk&refer=europe

You'll make more money in airlines, they've got a better future than the banking in the City.

I'm still employed in the airline business and they're unemployed, isn't that ironic?
According to Bloomberg right now, bankers are finding a new calling as 'civil servants'.

[Skol]

Naive, have a look in the mirror and see who's naive.

Theres this gem of a book " Who Moved my Cheese " by Dr Spencer and it would be worth your while to get hold of a copy, it deals with something most humans dread, CHANGE.

World oil production peaked in 2005 and a man of your traveling, must realise that 1,300,000,000 Chinese want their share of oil, whats left of it anyway. 1,000,000,000 Indians want your share as WELL.
65,000,000, Saudis want a piece of it as WELL, and then theres another 2,000,000,000 people in the world as WELL that would like to have a piece of our OIL.

It's called "Change"

P.S Upside Umop, that was a great article u presented, keep up the good work.

To see who's naive,I checked your bet in the POO competition. $170? What a dreamer. Why don't you admit you just got caught up in a bubble.

Maybe you're right, it wasn't a bubble, it was 'peak oil delayed'. Ha ha ha ha ha ad infinitum

Check the newspapers, the words 'peak oil' don't even get a mention these days because even the stupid journalists realise it was a bubble.

I doubt any industry changes more than the airline business.

[tricha]

To see who's naive,I checked your bet in the POO competition. $170? What a dreamer. Why don't you admit you just got caught up in a bubble.

Maybe you're right, it wasn't a bubble, it was 'peak oil delayed'. Ha ha ha ha ha ad infinitum

Check the newspapers, the words 'peak oil' don't even get a mention these days because even the stupid journalists realise it was a bubble.

I doubt any industry changes more than the airline business.

"Hey Huang, - I do not see u posting here on the Good News Week - post here if you've heard some :-)

Unfortunately as it is, I can not post anything on it, the only good news and it is personally selfish, is oil is out there.

Anyway back to the oil price, anywhere between $100 - $200 a barrel.

So do me a favour Huang and pick a # out for me randomly between 100 and 200 ;)"

This was my pick Skol, no one can predict the oil price, the number I put up was some analysist :D

Its amazing how many people like u can not see the wood from the trees, my big mistake was with oil peaking = demand destruction accelarating a full blown depression in the USA :eek:

Which means airlines are screwed :(

[Skol]

"Hey Huang, - I do not see u posting here on the Good News Week - post here if you've heard some :-)

Unfortunately as it is, I can not post anything on it, the only good news and it is personally selfish, is oil is out there.

Anyway back to the oil price, anywhere between $100 - $200 a barrel.

So do me a favour Huang and pick a # out for me randomly between 100 and 200 ;)"

This was my pick Skol, no one can predict the oil price, the number I put up was some analysist :D

Its amazing how many people like u can not see the wood from the trees, my big mistake was with oil peaking = demand destruction accelarating a full blown depression in the USA :eek:

Which means airlines are screwed :(

Are you sure about that?

www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/4728538a34.html

[Tok3n]

Isn't Emirates subsided by their Govt?

e.g. cheap fuel :)

[lakedaemonian]

Isn't Emirates subsided by their Govt?

e.g. cheap fuel :)

I don't consider Emirates as much an airline as the world's largest, most expensive, and most comprehensive marketing and advertising service existing solely to turn Dubai into the next Hong Kong/Shanghai.

If in 20 years Emirates is in the hole 25 billion, but Dubai solidifies as the Hong Kong/Shanghai of the petrodollar world it will have been worth every cent.

[tricha]

I don't consider Emirates as much an airline as the world's largest, most expensive, and most comprehensive marketing and advertising service existing solely to turn Dubai into the next Hong Kong/Shanghai.

If in 20 years Emirates is in the hole 25 billion, but Dubai solidifies as the Hong Kong/Shanghai of the petrodollar world it will have been worth every cent.

Upside Umop "Sorry, its a reasonably old article, but i particulary like the bit 'Aviation is a tough business. From 1947 to 2000, the world's airline industry profit averaged less than a 1% return to investors.' Given that in 2001 a lot of airlines went bust, and since then even more have gone under....you would have to say that they are now in a loss position? Airlines are more of a public service and airlines dont gain themselves from the positive externalties associated with flying on their bottom line..."

Tok3n - "Isn't Emirates subsided by their Govt?

e.g. cheap fuel :) "

WELL that's it in a nut shell isn't it, airlines are public services, it's as simple as that :p

[Skol]

Upside Umop "Sorry, its a reasonably old article, but i particulary like the bit 'Aviation is a tough business. From 1947 to 2000, the world's airline industry profit averaged less than a 1% return to investors.' Given that in 2001 a lot of airlines went bust, and since then even more have gone under....you would have to say that they are now in a loss position? Airlines are more of a public service and airlines dont gain themselves from the positive externalties associated with flying on their bottom line..."

Tok3n - "Isn't Emirates subsided by their Govt?

e.g. cheap fuel :) "

WELL that's it in a nut shell isn't it, airlines are public services, it's as simple as that :p


You're making assumptions, most airlines are publicly listed and report to shareholders.
Emirates vehemently denies that it has access to cheap fuel, if you have any evidence I'd sure like to see it.

[BRICKS]

TO be in the swing of things and to help NZ BRICKS bought some AIR in the low 80`s
where they at there all time low you cant do better that THAT..

[Skol]

TO be in the swing of things and to help NZ BRICKS bought some AIR in the low 80`s
where they at there all time low you cant do better that THAT..

Well done BRICKS, and you can bet your ass that Air NZ (which is a canny operator) shares will do better than a bet on 'peak oil'.

[Skol]

Plunging oil prices; bad news for oil shares but good news for airlines.

www.forbes.com/markets/equities/2008/10/16/delta-air-closer-markets-equity-cx_mp_1015markets40.html

[Zephyrus]

Any views on Virgin Blue?

[tricha]

Any views on Virgin Blue?

Very good point Zephyrus, not my cup of tea by jove, u will have to ask Skol, from memory he bought them recently.


Spanish airline suspends flights


http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44536000/gif/_44536479_breaking_226x170.gif

Spanish-based airline LTE International has suspended operations after telling Spanish authorities that it was in serious financial difficulty.
LTE's website stopped taking bookings late on Thursday after it said it could not cover costs for the next few days.
LTE flies from Norwich airport to Spanish holiday resorts including Malaga and Tenerife.
Some British tourists who booked their holidays are complaining they have been left stranded.
The company issued a statement saying that it was doing everything to minimise the impact of suspension.
Airline employees were told of the company's difficulties via text messages on their mobile phones. The Spanish Civil Aviation Authority is due to decide whether to suspend LTE's operating licence. Are you on holiday with LTE International? Have you been able to get home? Do you work for the airline? Send us your stories and experiences using the form below: In most cases a selection of your comments will be published, displaying your name and location unless you state otherwise in the box below.

[Skol]

Any views on Virgin Blue?

Yeah, I wish I'd sold them at $1.25-such is life. Should've listened to the late Joe Kennedy, he reckoned "only a fool hangs out for top dollar".

I'd be more inclined to buy AIR or QAN, AIR reckon they have a billion in cash and can weather a downturn, also seem to be much more entrepreneurial than the AIR of old.

[tricha]

Yeah, I wish I'd sold them at $1.25-such is life. Should've listened to the late Joe Kennedy, he reckoned "only a fool hangs out for top dollar".

I'd be more inclined to buy AIR or QAN, AIR reckon they have a billion in cash and can weather a downturn, also seem to be much more entrepreneurial than the AIR of old.

Good as gold Skol, another bargain for u to chew on, with oil being so low, must be an absolute steal :rolleyes:


Lufthansa Reduces 2008 Forecast on Slowing Economy (Update1)

By Chris Reiter
Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Lufthansa AG (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LHA%3AGY), Europe's second-biggest airline, lowered its earnings forecast for 2008 because of ``uncertainties'' stemming from slowing worldwide economic growth and credit-market turmoil.
Lufthansa is now forecasting that operating profit will fall to 1.1 billion euros ($1.37 billion), rather than ``follow up on'' last year's figure of 1.38 billion euros, Cologne, Germany- based carrier said today in a statement. Nine-month profit dropped 66 percent to 551 million euros because of record fuel costs and a year-earlier gain. Sales rose 14 percent to 18.6 billion euros.
Airline shares (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BEUAIRL%3AIND) have plummeted as the economic slowdown deters tourists and business people from flying. Global airline- passenger traffic fell for the first time in five years in September, the International Air Transport Association (http://www.iata.org/) said Oct. 24, adding that industry losses may exceed its earlier $5.2 billion forecast. Lufthansa said Oct. 10 that its planes flew with more empty seats last month.
``The third-quarter figures are bad. The outlook is bad,'' Nils Machemehl (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Nils+Machemehl&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), a Frankfurt-based analyst with BHF Bank, said in a telephone interview. ``With the oil price dropping and the economy slowing, the question is which fall faster: costs or demand?''
Lufthansa declined (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LHA%3AGY) 90 cents, or 8.7 percent, to 9.43 euros in Frankfurt trading. The stock has dropped 48 percent in 2008 to a four-year low, valuing the airline at 4.32 billion euros.
Operating profit, which Lufthansa defines as sales minus operating expenses and excluding gains or costs from asset disposals, fell 9.3 percent to 984 million euros because the airline couldn't compensate for higher spending on fuel, Lufthansa said.
Third-quarter net income fell to 149 million euros from 586 million euros, according to figures derived by subtracting first- half from nine-month results. Claudia Lange (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Claudia+Lange&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), a Lufthansa spokeswoman in Frankfurt, declined to comment on the number, which missed the median estimate of 350 million euros, based on a Bloomberg News survey of six analysts.
To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Reiter (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Chris+Reiter&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) in Berlin at creiter2@bloomberg.net (creiter2@bloomberg.net)
Last Updated: October 28, 2008 12:52 EDT

[Skol]

www.cnbc.com/id/27451201

Make more out of airlines than you will out of oil shares anytime soon.

Haven't seen any recommendations to buy them.

[tricha]

www.cnbc.com/id/27451201 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/27451201)

Make more out of airlines than you will out of oil shares anytime soon.

Haven't seen any recommendations to buy them.


In your dreams :eek: Skol.

Icelandic airline to file for bankruptcy



29th October 2008, 13:15 WST

Icelandic-owned budget carrier Sterling Airways will file for bankruptcy.
The airline said it was unable to raise financial support for a restructuring program due to the collapse of the Icelandic financial system and would file for bankruptcy today.
The airline is based in Denmark but has Icelandic owners.
Sterling said it would not be able to refund passengers who had bought tickets from the company's website.
AP

[trackers]

Was having a laugh the other day, apparently a few airlines are becoming a bit unstuck due to taking part in good amounts of jet fuel hedging, whoops.


www.cnbc.com/id/27451201 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/27451201)

Make more out of airlines than you will out of oil shares anytime soon.

Haven't seen any recommendations to buy them.

Yeah, you're right Skol its been a tough old few months for oilers... Exxon just posted the biggest quarterly profit for a company in the history of the U.S:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/30/news/companies/exxon_earnings/index.htm

Tough times indeed

[Skol]

In your dreams :eek: Skol.

Icelandic airline to file for bankruptcy



29th October 2008, 13:15 WST

Icelandic-owned budget carrier Sterling Airways will file for bankruptcy.
The airline said it was unable to raise financial support for a restructuring program due to the collapse of the Icelandic financial system and would file for bankruptcy today.
The airline is based in Denmark but has Icelandic owners.
Sterling said it would not be able to refund passengers who had bought tickets from the company's website.
AP

You didn't need to be Einsten to work that out-the whole Country's in receivership.
Southwest lost $200M on their hedge contracts but I think you'll find most came out of it OK-I hear AIR did.

[Skol]

Was having a laugh the other day, apparently a few airlines are becoming a bit unstuck due to taking part in good amounts of jet fuel hedging, whoops.



Yeah, you're right Skol its been a tough old few months for oilers... Exxon just posted the biggest quarterly profit for a company in the history of the U.S:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/30/news/companies/exxon_earnings/index.htm

Tough times indeed

Well I was more thinking of the local oilers, ones tricha used to call his "cash cows", but
these ones are ready for the abattoir.
AZA BOW COE NZO ODN OEL PPP TTY

With the AUD/NZ folding against the $US there is some evidence that Americans are booking more overseas flights.

[Huang Chung]

Not sure if the low $A against the $US will be much help to Qantas on the routes to the USA (their most profitable) as a lot of Aussies won't be travelling there with the current exchange rates, and you'd imagine most Americans travelling to OZ will not be travelling Qantas.

[Skol]

Was having a laugh the other day, apparently a few airlines are becoming a bit unstuck due to taking part in good amounts of jet fuel hedging, whoops.



Yeah, you're right Skol its been a tough old few months for oilers... Exxon just posted the biggest quarterly profit for a company in the history of the U.S:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/30/news/companies/exxon_earnings/index.htm

Tough times indeed

These are the profits from a few months back when the peak oilers thought they were right (and still do) and everone else is wrong. See my latest post on the peak oil thread about oil company profits.

Airlines take off as oil pulls back.

www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/10/31/ap5634287.html

[Crypto Crude]

One Way
For
Bird Flu
to Enter the country
is on
international flights.
don't get on an
airplane
that looks like this
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>

[Skol]

Very good.
No problem though, airlines are used to coping with dramas, bird flu, SARs, scumbag Osama Bin Laden, security, loonies, economic meltdowns.
Lots of other businesses could take a leaf out of how airlines run their business.

[Crypto Crude]

skol-Very good.
No problem though, airlines are used to coping with dramas, bird flu, SARs, scumbag Osama Bin Laden, security, loonies, economic meltdowns.
Lots of other businesses could take a leaf out of how airlines run their business.

Why cope with it?... why put up with it? why invest in something that clearly does not out perform...
Theres no need to invest in anything that has to deal with all these adverse situations... When changing circumstances come up that effect the returns (or risk return) on the types of investments you hold, or portfolio---> then you get out of them and find something better... find something that does not have to deal with these situations... Its bad practice mate...
end of story...
:cool:
.^sc

[Skol]

Why cope with it?... why put up with it? why invest in something that clearly does not out perform...
Theres no need to invest in anything that has to deal with all these adverse situations... When changing circumstances come up that effect the returns (or risk return) on the types of investments you hold, or portfolio---> then you get out of them and find something better... find something that does not have to deal with these situations... Its bad practice mate...
end of story...
:cool:
.^sc


So's oil, CUE, 21.6 average, and that's if you're telling the truth.

Now .14.
I'm going to try and find an oil index and an airline index and we'll compare it over the next few months.

[Crypto Crude]

skol-So's oil, CUE, 21.6 average, and that's if you're telling the truth.


I know skol... it sounds unbelieveable considering whats happened...:)....
Oil has fallen 60 bucks a barrel US since I bought.. and 3-4k off on the DOW...
yeahhh hahaeerrrghghhhh....
I disclosed my prices on the thread the very same day I bought the shares...
CTP and now CUE are my first real losses in Oil ever...
period...oh and 500 bucks on FAR... cant think of any others...
I wont be selling CUE so there wont be losses there...
good day
:cool:
.^sc

[BRICKS]

REX airlines a small AU company has accumulated 3% of VBA and is headed for 5%
has connections with the Singapore Gov, so there is some action at last.. VBA has $604
million in cash and the company is worth $360 so money could be up for GRABS..

[Skol]

Why cope with it?... why put up with it? why invest in something that clearly does not out perform...
Theres no need to invest in anything that has to deal with all these adverse situations... When changing circumstances come up that effect the returns (or risk return) on the types of investments you hold, or portfolio---> then you get out of them and find something better... find something that does not have to deal with these situations... Its bad practice mate...
end of story...
:cool:
.^sc

XAL AMEX Airline Index now 24.42

XOI AMEX Oil Index now 956.71

Difference in numbers but all that matters is the percentage.

Remember this post and we'll refer to it from time to time.

[Crypto Crude]

Skol,
Indexes start with a base number... I am assuming in this case 100 points would be the starting base number.... going on that Oil has risen 900% since the start of the index, and air lines have fallen some 75 odd %...
anyway dude... Most posters on this site do not invest in indexes (ie a portfolio made up of all stocks in that sector, eg for an oil index)... so indexes are a waste of time mate....

You can track any thing in the airline industry you like against CUE...
A particular share...or the index as a whole..
It dont matter...
you either perform or you dont.. and if you invest in air lines, id say you dont...
hehehe...
your mate shrewd keeping you honest...
:cool:
.^sc

[Skol]

Skol,
Indexes start with a base number... I am assuming in this case 100 points would be the starting base number.... going on that Oil has risen 900% since the start of the index, and air lines have fallen some 75 odd %...
anyway dude... Most posters on this site do not invest in indexes (ie a portfolio made up of all stocks in that sector, eg for an oil index)... so indexes are a waste of time mate....

You can track any thing in the airline industry you like against CUE...
A particular share...or the index as a whole..
It dont matter...
you either perform or you dont.. and if you invest in air lines, id say you dont...
hehehe...
your mate shrewd keeping you honest...
:cool:
.^sc
Will also depend on how old the index is but never mind-CUE .145 we'll add that in too. Also VBA for a bit of fun now.40

[BRICKS]

REX airlines a small AU company has accumulated 3% of VBA and is headed for 5%
has connections with the Singapore Gov, so there is some action at last.. VBA has $604
million in cash and the company is worth $360 so money could be up for GRABS..

THANKS to my small headline yesterday VBA rose 13% in price and all i hear is RUBBISH..

[Skol]

THANKS to my small headline yesterday VBA rose 13% in price and all i hear is RUBBISH..

Just noticed that-well done.

Actually Shrewd and some of these other 'peak oilers' are probably accumulating a few airline shares if the truth's known.

[Crypto Crude]

Hey skol,
I hope you added CUE at 14.5c...anyway,
ise talking to upside umop today and we both want to compete with you by starting up an oil index, and you starting up an airline index...
The competition will end when listed airline's cease to exist, ie (nationalisation)... for real...;)....
We are thinking of starting the index on the 1st of Janurary....
so we can organise how we are going to select stocks, rules etc and all that....

So its not two vs one, you can have bricks...hehehe...

upside umop and shrewd crude vs skol and bricks...

each Index will start at 100 basis points... interesting to see if your index remains above 100 for long... (refer to previous example of 25 index points vs 900 on the oil index) airlines down 75%....

Skol me old mate...
what do you reckon....? 10 stocks each...? can you find 10 great stocks?...

we have thought about something to sweaten the deal...
what do you think the prize should be...?
:cool:
.^sc

[Skol]

XAL Amex airline index up 56% since October 10th.
Hows the 'oilers' going?

[tricha]

XAL Amex airline index up 56% since October 10th.
Hows the 'oilers' going?

In your dreams Skol, in your dreams.


Is the worst over for the airlines?



By Tom Symonds
Transport correspondent, BBC News
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/999999.gif


The risk of failure is huge and the list of failures is growing in the airline sector.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45177000/jpg/_45177288_-58.jpg The list of airlines in trouble represents a lot of pain


First to succumb were the airlines with innovative new business models, such as Silverjet with its mission to undercut the major airlines in the battle for business passengers.
Small operators like Futura, Sterling, Maxjet, Oasis and EOS have also gone.
The collapse of XL was a huge shock to the UK charter airline market.
Even a flag-carrier, Alitalia, is in administration
Times are even harder in the massive US aviation market.
Southwest, the innovative low-cost airline that spawned imitators such as Ryanair, has announced its first financial loss in 17 years.
Of the other Big Six, American, Continental, Delta and NorthWest were all in the red for the last three months' reported figures.
Below them a host of smaller operators have disappeared.
But the US has a system for propping up ailing companies and airlines have made full use of the Chapter 11 protection from bankruptcy to enable them to restructure or merge, and secure their futures.
This week aviation industry representatives were saying they thought the worst was over.
All this is happening, partly because of the "credit crunch".
But the spike in oil prices has been the biggest problem.
The rise started in December 2006 and only stopped in June this year when a barrel of oil had topped $140.
It has now dropped like a stone to just above $60 a barrel.
That won't help many airlines just yet.
They are still paying more for their fuel under 'hedging' deals, in which they set a fixed price months into the future. United Airlines, for example, has said it is around $230m out of pocket as a result of its hedging deals.
Just this week Cathay Pacific has admitted its hedging will result in poor results by the end of this financial year.
Waiting in the wings
Because of the drop in oil prices answering the question "who's next" to go under, is not easy.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45177000/jpg/_45177290_50213272-3622-4b0c-b289-d9559b7900eb.jpg The rush to the gates may not last through a recession


But despite the optimism in the US, many believe it is not over yet.
Take aviation's loudest voice, Ryanair's Michael O'Leary.
On Monday he told the BBC: "What we're seeing is the market being cleaned out. I think its going to get a lot worse this winter. I expect to see another five or six airline bankruptcies in Europe before Christmas".
Which might he have meant?
Mr O'Leary was quoted in newspapers naming Germany's second biggest carrier, Air Berlin as one possible airline at risk.
"Nonsense," said Air Berlin.
What about the UK operators?
The regional operator FlyBe was still in profit last time it reported and its now taken over the British Airways BA Connect service.
But FlyBe has less cash in the bank than its rivals Easyjet and Ryanair.
Its survival plan falls into the "batton down the hatches" camp, with planes being taken out of service.
Cash reserves seem to be an important factor.
Ryanair, for example, has more than £1bn in the bank, a healthy safety net by any standard.
Which means that the airline can afford not to hedge its fuel purchases.
Ryanair is also sticking to its mantra, when the going gets tough, sell more seats for almost nothing.
BMI has surrendered to a take-over from Lufthansa, which should secure its future.
British Airways is concentrating on business travel, and hoping the white-collar economic downturn does not mean trouble round the corner.
BA is also trying join with its friends to weather the story.
The "almost-a-merger" deal with American Airlines and Iberia, which should help in the transatlantic market, will be one of the transport-related decisions of President Obama.
Taught nerves
It may be that the worst is over.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45177000/jpg/_45177289_f2c0d3d6-970e-4103-b963-e2f260333ad0.jpg Expect queues if another airline collapses


That most of the airlines that were going to collapse, have collapsed.
Some industry-watchers say it is the companies with an over-reliance on keeping costs down that will face the greatest risk.
Theoretically, if the oil price stays low, they should become more secure.
Others suggest that it will be smaller, privately-owned airlines that run into trouble, because they don't have cash reserves, or the sturdy framework of shareholders and investors to keep them out of trouble.
Certainly the biggest risks face the newest entrants to the market.
Perhaps some of the Ryanair-wannabes that have sprung up around Europe.
But if the recession really starts to bite, people will stop booking expensive holidays, and businesses will cut trips abroad for meetings.
This could replace oil prices as the big headache and damage airlines further.
Though it could also help budget operators as travellers look for cheaper deals.
But naming the names of Europe's shakiest airlines is not legally advisable.
Recently, when rumours surrounded the financial health of one smaller UK airline, my inquiries to industry sources resulted within hours in a call from the airline in question. "We've heard you're calling around. It's going to damage us. What do we have to say to convince you we're not in trouble". A poignant illustration of the taut nerves in the aviation world, as this global slump lingers on.

[Skol]

In your dreams Skol, in your dreams.

Go to any website like http://finance.yahoo.com, type in XAL, bring up the chart and eat your words.

[tricha]

Go to any website like http://finance.yahoo.com, type in XAL, bring up the chart and eat your words.

And u have shares in this company i take it Skol :rolleyes:

[Skol]

And u have shares in this company i take it Skol :rolleyes:

No I don't it's an index, check it out. AMEX airline index - you don't need to be Einstein or don't you want to be proved wrong-again.
Airlines are recommended in this weeks Barrons.

You like to rubbish the airlines, here's proof they're better than your 'oilers' and will be for the forseeable future.

[tricha]

No I don't it's an index, check it out. AMEX airline index - you don't need to be Einstein or don't you want to be proved wrong-again.
Airlines are recommended in this weeks Barrons.

You like to rubbish the airlines, here's proof they're better than your 'oilers' and will be for the forseeable future.

You have some weird dreams Skol and a vivid imagination. :)

[Skol]

You have some weird dreams Skol and a vivid imagination. :)

Don't believe me, here it is.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EXAL#chart1:symbol=^xal;range=3m;indic ator=sma+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcva lues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Can't come to grips with the the truth, no worries lots of people can't face the real world. It is possible to treat this condition.

[Crypto Crude]

hahahaha...
I checked out the 52 week range for xal...
the one skol goes on and on about
that puppy is down 50% for the year...
Skol said it was up 50% recently...
That means, at one point within the last year you had lost 75% of your portfolio (if you held the XAL) index....
a very risky business to be in...
high risk takers only play this sector...
gambling... casino...


heres the chart on the index skol goes on about...
the big return he mentions is when the index hit an absolute bottom...
what about the 90% lost from the top of the index when it hit 200...
what about that skol?

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/_/_xal
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

He is in DreamWorld.:) Skol what on earth are u on man :confused:


hahahaha...
I checked out the 52 week range for xal...
the one skol goes on and on about
that puppy is down 50% for the year...
Skol said it was up 50% recently...
That means, at one point within the last year you had lost 75% of your portfolio (if you held the XAL) index....
a very risky business to be in...
high risk takers only play this sector...
gambling... casino...


heres the chart on the index skol goes on about...
the big return he mentions is when the index hit an absolute bottom...
what about the 90% lost from the top of the index when it hit 200...
what about that skol?

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/_/_xal
:cool:
.^sc

[Skol]

hahahaha...
I checked out the 52 week range for xal...
the one skol goes on and on about
that puppy is down 50% for the year...
Skol said it was up 50% recently...
That means, at one point within the last year you had lost 75% of your portfolio (if you held the XAL) index....
a very risky business to be in...
high risk takers only play this sector...
gambling... casino...


heres the chart on the index skol goes on about...
the big return he mentions is when the index hit an absolute bottom...
what about the 90% lost from the top of the index when it hit 200...
what about that skol?

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/_/_xal
:cool:
.^sc

XOI the AMEX oil index has dived by 52% has recovered by 16%, XAL has recovered by 56%.
I've give you credit, you're obviously a lot more switched on than tricha who's in denial mode.

XAL down 42% for last year
XOI down 34% for last year

But airlines recovering, oil heading for the skids, good luck.

[Crypto Crude]

skol.
and yes... have a look at the fundamental difference between the two charts...

on the first chart we have a nice steady uptrend over 25 years...
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/_/_xoi


And then we follow it up with the master of disaster...

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/_/_xal
:cool:
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

The amex airline index is at all time lows, when oil is very very favourable...
The Amex Oil index is at 3 year lows...

1.10^25= 10.835

10.835*94= 1018 points...
Boy thats a nice 10% compounding on the Oil index over 25 years huh...

:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

The amex airline index is at all time lows, when oil is very very favourable...
The Amex Oil index is at 3 year lows...

1.10^25= 10.835

10.835*94= 1018 points...
Boy thats a nice 10% compounding on the Oil index over 25 years huh...

:cool:
.^sc

Just as well u r only dreaming Skol, owning shares in the index, hmm


British Airways profits plummet


http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44872000/jpg/_44872328_ba226bbc.jpg BA says it should make a small profit for the full financial year


Half-year profits at British Airways have fallen 91.6%, with the airline blaming "incredibly difficult trading conditions" for the plunge.
BA said pre-tax profit totalled £52m ($81.6m) between April and September, down from £616m a year earlier.
Willie Walsh, BA's chief executive, said the period would "be remembered as one of the bleakest on record".
Airlines have been hurt by record fuel prices and the economic downturn is hitting passenger numbers.
"The industry continues to face very difficult trading conditions on the back of a weak economic environment," Mr Walsh said.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifFROM THE TODAY PROGRAMME



http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/inline_dashed_line.gif

More from Today programme (http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/default.stm)
Analysis: is the worst over? (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7711353.stm)


However, he was confident that the airline would be able to make a "small profit" for the financial year.
The profit forecast encouraged investors and BA's share price was up 15.6%, or 20.30p, at 150.8p in morning trade.
The airline said it would reduce its number of flights by about 1% in 2009 in anticipation of less demand from travellers.
The reduction includes the suspension of services from Heathrow to Dhaka and Kolkata, and Gatwick to Dublin and Zurich.
BA said that its fuel costs were 52% higher than a year ago, although it said it was well placed to benefit from the current fall in fuel prices.
Aviation fuel prices move in tandem with crude oil prices, which have more than halved since hitting a record $147 a barrel in July.
However, BA added that hedging and a weaker pound would offset lower prices to some extent.
Low-cost rival Ryanair also reported a sharp fall in profit earlier this week. Mr Walsh said that Heathrow Terminal 5 was now running smoothly after a disastrous opening earlier this year. He also said a third runway for Heathrow was "critical" for the future of the UK economy.

[Crypto Crude]

hey tricha...
someone's got to buy airline investments eah...
in 5 years with all our oil profits we will need a jet to fly us to an Island so we can divvy it up.....
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

hey tricha...
someone's got to buy airline investments eah...
in 5 years with all our oil profits we will need a jet to fly us to an Island so we can divvy it up.....
:cool:
.^sc

Yeah but Shrewd, SKOL ( still working) is likely to be the captain flying us to our island.
Can u imagine where that leaves us :confused:

[Crypto Crude]

hehehehe...
by then we will have robot pilots...might help a few struggling stay afloat (oh---> thats the boat business)... hehehe... I'll shout my mate skol a drink at the back of the plane...
I am definately not stubborn enough to realise or say that Ive made a mistake if Ive made one... right now, I just cant see airlines any other way... and I cant see the medium term view on oil to be any other way...
...
I guess its just a go away and come back in one year...

Skol did not reply to my oil index vs airline index offer...
:cool:
.^sc

[Skol]

hehehehe...
by then we will have robot pilots...might help a few struggling stay afloat (oh---> thats the boat business)... hehehe... I'll shout my mate skol a drink at the back of the plane...
I am definately not stubborn enough to realise or say that Ive made a mistake if Ive made one... right now, I just cant see airlines any other way... and I cant see the medium term view on oil to be any other way...
...
I guess its just a go away and come back in one year...

Skol did not reply to my oil index vs airline index offer...
:cool:
.^sc

I'll get on to it tomorrow, I've been celebrating Aunty Helen's demise.

[Skol]

Biritish Airways shares soar 15% despite tricha's bad news. Any of your 'oilers' or maybe I should call them your 'boilers' done that lately?

www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10542053

[Crypto Crude]

last week CUE ran from 13c to 19c--->about a 50% run...
but then we had our worst two market days since 1987 and that all got taken away...
:cool:
.^sc

[Skol]

Hey skol,
I hope you added CUE at 14.5c...anyway,
ise talking to upside umop today and we both want to compete with you by starting up an oil index, and you starting up an airline index...
The competition will end when listed airline's cease to exist, ie (nationalisation)... for real...;)....
We are thinking of starting the index on the 1st of Janurary....
so we can organise how we are going to select stocks, rules etc and all that....

So its not two vs one, you can have bricks...hehehe...

upside umop and shrewd crude vs skol and bricks...

each Index will start at 100 basis points... interesting to see if your index remains above 100 for long... (refer to previous example of 25 index points vs 900 on the oil index) airlines down 75%....

Skol me old mate...
what do you reckon....? 10 stocks each...? can you find 10 great stocks?...

we have thought about something to sweaten the deal...
what do you think the prize should be...?
:cool:
.^sc
I don't see anything wrong starting on my previous post XAL vs XOI.
Not enough airlines in this part of the world but XOI covers major world airlines.
VBA vs CUE for a bit of fun.

[Crypto Crude]

ok skol,
no problem... upside down and I are going to put together an ASX oiler index, (with the help of other posters) that we can track for many many years to come...
We will give you a few weeks if you want to change your mind...
you are right though... there are not many great airline companies on this side of the World...
hehehehehehe...
:cool:
.^sc

[Corporate]

ok skol,
no problem... upside down and I are going to put together an ASX oiler index, (with the help of other posters) that we can track for many many years to come...
We will give you a few weeks if you want to change your mind...
you are right though... there are not many great airline companies on this side of the World...
hehehehehehe...
:cool:
.^sc

SC keen to get involved with this oiler index for long term tracking. Oil is finite, it's cheaper than milk, doesn't make sense.

[Crypto Crude]

hey shephejame,
we decided to go with it...
just started a new thread...
all the info is there...
:cool:
.^sc

[tricha]

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/arrow_down.gifLast

31
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/red_round_small.gif 4 11.4%
6:59 pm



234
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/red_round_small.gif 27 10.3%
6:59 pm

WELL, WELL. WELL oil is dropping, but no one can afford to fly ;)

[BRICKS]

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/arrow_down.gifLast

31
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/red_round_small.gif 4 11.4%
6:59 pm



234
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/red_round_small.gif 27 10.3%
6:59 pm

WELL, WELL. WELL oil is dropping, but no one can afford to fly ;)


CERTAIN plane fares are now cheaper than ever and AIR travel beats WALKING..

[tricha]

CERTAIN plane fares are now cheaper than ever and AIR travel beats WALKING..

Sounds like a lot of walking happening.:( But hey I'm sure this is only temperory due to oil falling ;)

Qantas facing Moody's review of credit rating






Steve Creedy | November 27, 2008

Article from: The Australian (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/)
QANTAS shares fell again yesterday on news that Moody's Investors Service was reviewing the airline's credit rating.
Moody's rethink comes in the wake of the airline's 64 per cent pre-tax profit downgrade.
Qantas's shares closed down 7c at $2.17 after climbing slightly during the day.
Moody's said it was conducting the review after the airline announced capacity cuts and said pre-tax profit would fall from $1.4billion in 2007-08 to about $500million this financial year.
The move came as investors were advised by analysts to hang on to their shares but to be prepared for more bad news.
The analysts cut their price targets for Qantas but maintained their ratings, with most sitting on neutral or hold.
But several warned that the airline had yet to face the worst of downturn.
ABN AMRO, which cut its target price from $2.75 to $2.45 and retained its "hold" rating, said the time to buy airlines was when conditions were toughest but the worst of the news had passed.
"We don't think we're there yet with Qantas, although today's capacity cuts and admission that the international business is doing it tough gets us closer to that point, in our view," analysts Mark Williams and Michael Newbold said.
Macquarie Research analysts Russell Shaw and Riaz Hyder reduced their price target by 10 per cent to $2.66 and retained their neutral rating, noting that Qantas remained at the low end of its historical price over book value range.
But they did not think the corner had yet been turned.
"Ongoing negative operating data is likely to prevent a short-term re-rating in the stock prior to 2009, when the market will potentially have a firmer expectation of the duration and extent of the global recession," they said.
JB Were analyst Matthew McNee calculated that the stock's price to book value ratio was at its lowest since Qantas shares first traded in 1995.
"While we believe the stock is cheap at a current levels, the sharp decline in demand seen across the industry over the last two months causes us to remain cautious on the airline industry," said Mr McNee, who maintained a "hold" rating but reduced his price target from $4 to $3.24.
Deutsche Bank said the negative sentiment in Qantas forward bookings had become a key point of concern.
Analyst Cameron McDonald, who maintained a hold rating but revised valuation from $3 to $2.10, warned that Qantas could not continue to reduce capacity without risking significant loss of high-value market share to competitors.
"We urge investors to be aware of this trend, and highlight industry consolidation as possibly the only longer-term fix to this fundamental issue for the Qantas Group."
JP Morgan, which has a neutral recommendation on the stock, cut its price target from $3.40 to $3.10 as a result of the earnings downgrade, but said it came as no surprise.
"As stated in our previous note, demand is falling faster than supply," analysts Matt Crowe and Russell Crichton-Browne said.

[BRICKS]

Sounds like a lot of walking happening.:( But hey I'm sure this is only temperory due to oil falling ;)

Qantas facing Moody's review of credit rating






Steve Creedy | November 27, 2008

Article from: The Australian (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/)
QANTAS shares fell again yesterday on news that Moody's Investors Service was reviewing the airline's credit rating.
Moody's rethink comes in the wake of the airline's 64 per cent pre-tax profit downgrade.
Qantas's shares closed down 7c at $2.17 after climbing slightly during the day.
Moody's said it was conducting the review after the airline announced capacity cuts and said pre-tax profit would fall from $1.4billion in 2007-08 to about $500million this financial year.
The move came as investors were advised by analysts to hang on to their shares but to be prepared for more bad news.
The analysts cut their price targets for Qantas but maintained their ratings, with most sitting on neutral or hold.
But several warned that the airline had yet to face the worst of downturn.
ABN AMRO, which cut its target price from $2.75 to $2.45 and retained its "hold" rating, said the time to buy airlines was when conditions were toughest but the worst of the news had passed.
"We don't think we're there yet with Qantas, although today's capacity cuts and admission that the international business is doing it tough gets us closer to that point, in our view," analysts Mark Williams and Michael Newbold said.
Macquarie Research analysts Russell Shaw and Riaz Hyder reduced their price target by 10 per cent to $2.66 and retained their neutral rating, noting that Qantas remained at the low end of its historical price over book value range.
But they did not think the corner had yet been turned.
"Ongoing negative operating data is likely to prevent a short-term re-rating in the stock prior to 2009, when the market will potentially have a firmer expectation of the duration and extent of the global recession," they said.
JB Were analyst Matthew McNee calculated that the stock's price to book value ratio was at its lowest since Qantas shares first traded in 1995.
"While we believe the stock is cheap at a current levels, the sharp decline in demand seen across the industry over the last two months causes us to remain cautious on the airline industry," said Mr McNee, who maintained a "hold" rating but reduced his price target from $4 to $3.24.
Deutsche Bank said the negative sentiment in Qantas forward bookings had become a key point of concern.
Analyst Cameron McDonald, who maintained a hold rating but revised valuation from $3 to $2.10, warned that Qantas could not continue to reduce capacity without risking significant loss of high-value market share to competitors.
"We urge investors to be aware of this trend, and highlight industry consolidation as possibly the only longer-term fix to this fundamental issue for the Qantas Group."
JP Morgan, which has a neutral recommendation on the stock, cut its price target from $3.40 to $3.10 as a result of the earnings downgrade, but said it came as no surprise.
"As stated in our previous note, demand is falling faster than supply," analysts Matt Crowe and Russell Crichton-Browne said.

IT appears that none of the above can make up there mind on price or passengers
it is what you would call 'Paper talk only"

[BRICKS]

Meanwhile back in NEW ZEALAND try leaving the country unless you FLY..

[Dr_Who]

Meanwhile back in NEW ZEALAND try leaving the country unless you FLY..

Why would you want to leave NZ? This is a land of cream, honey and zero crime rate according to the TV advertising we beem across the world. Foreigners who believe in the BS and end up living in NZ soon found out the realty of NZ is not all it seems.

[tricha]

Meanwhile back in NEW ZEALAND try leaving the country unless you FLY..

Yeah but it's usually a one way trip Bricks and this looks like my PEM shares.
R U still holding Skol :confused:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/VBA/1y/line/30/0/ Line Type LineCandlestickOHLCPercent Period 1 Month2 Months3 Months6 Months1 Year2 Years5 Years10 Years

[BRICKS]

Yeah but it's usually a one way trip Bricks and this looks like my PEM shares.
R U still holding Skol :confused:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/VBA/1y/line/30/0/ Line Type LineCandlestickOHLCPercent Period 1 Month2 Months3 Months6 Months1 Year2 Years5 Years10 Years

IT looks like a PAN cake this PEM refers to Perilya Limited ?? if it does it dose not own
AIROPLANES and wont fly too and fro to NZ...

[Skol]

Yep, still holding, in fact the only things I own that I can genuinely say have held their value is cash and an investment in yen. Underlying asset in japanese shares is RS but saved by japanese currency. (So far)

[Skol]

Hey skol,
I hope you added CUE at 14.5c...anyway,
ise talking to upside umop today and we both want to compete with you by starting up an oil index, and you starting up an airline index...
The competition will end when listed airline's cease to exist, ie (nationalisation)... for real...;)....
We are thinking of starting the index on the 1st of Janurary....
so we can organise how we are going to select stocks, rules etc and all that....

So its not two vs one, you can have bricks...hehehe...

upside umop and shrewd crude vs skol and bricks...

each Index will start at 100 basis points... interesting to see if your index remains above 100 for long... (refer to previous example of 25 index points vs 900 on the oil index) airlines down 75%....

Skol me old mate...
what do you reckon....? 10 stocks each...? can you find 10 great stocks?...

we have thought about something to sweaten the deal...
what do you think the prize should be...?
:cool:
.^sc

Haven't heard much from you lately SC and I've just discovered why-your pet share CUE is now 10.5c down 28%.
Even the worst airline share hasn't done that bad in the last couple of weeks.

Interest in airline shares picking up QAN/BA merger talks but oil shares in their death throes and no end in site.

VBA up .02, QAN up .19

[The Big Ease]

this is quite funny now.
oil stocks arent doing so well, but in the medium term they will bounce back strongly.

over the long run, the track records of the oil and airline industries is quite clear.
though there will always be companies in both that will go against their industry trend and short-term performance divergence, you should note which companies are the most profitable in the world.

they arent airlines!
skol, i assume you have some great industry knowledge going by your time spent in that industry. as such, you would be at a distinct advantage over the average punter. for most investors airlines will prove to be a dud investment.

good luck utilising your industry knowledge though.
you will need it when oil bounces back hard....its the long term trend you know ;)

[Skol]

QAN might be worth a punt, heard that the A380 is doing well with airlines that own it.

[AMR]

I hope you don't mind me asking you Skol, but were you with Air NZ back when they had to fold Ansett? Were there any changes to the company noticeable by the staff before Ansett went under?

[tricha]

this is quite funny now.
oil stocks arent doing so well, but in the medium term they will bounce back strongly.

over the long run, the track records of the oil and airline industries is quite clear.
though there will always be companies in both that will go against their industry trend and short-term performance divergence, you should note which companies are the most profitable in the world.

they arent airlines!
skol, i assume you have some great industry knowledge going by your time spent in that industry. as such, you would be at a distinct advantage over the average punter. for most investors airlines will prove to be a dud investment.

good luck utilising your industry knowledge though.
you will need it when oil bounces back hard....its the long term trend you know ;)

Hmm doggy,

ComCom acts over alleged air cargo cartel

Monday December 15, 11:48 AM
Print This Story (http://au.rd.yahoo.com/nz/headlines/print/*http://nz.biz.yahoo.com/081214/3/p/9sqm.html) http://l.yimg.com/au.yimg.com/i/life/portal/btn_rss_2_1.gif (http://nz.rss.biz.yahoo.com/)
a.y7sc {border-bottom: 1px dashed rgb(151,151,204);text-decoration:none;color:black;background: transparent none repeat scroll 0%; cursor: pointer; color:#333;}a.y7sc:hover {cursor: pointer; text-decoration:none;color:#00F;border-bottom: 1px solid #00F;}a.y7sc:visited {border-bottom: 1px dashed #639;text-decoration:none;color:#333;}http://news.aunz.yimg.com/xp/nzpa/20081215/11/3857960555.jpg
Click to enlarge photo (http://news.aunz.yimg.com/xp/nzpa/20081215/11/1250940666.jpg)

The Commerce Commission is taking legal action against 13 airlines, including Air New Zealand, and seven airline staff for "extensive and long-term cartel activity in the air cargo market (http://nz.search.yahoo.com/search?p=air%20cargo%20market&fr=sfy_cl_nz)".
Among the other airlines involved are British Airways, Cathay Pacific Airways (http://nz.search.yahoo.com/search?p=cathay%20pacific%20airways&fr=sfy_cl_nz), Qantas Airways and United Airlines.
Today commission chairwoman Paula Rebstock said that the alleged collusion to impose additional charges would have caused extensive harm to the New Zealand economy (http://nz.search.yahoo.com/search?p=new%20zealand%20economy&fr=sfy_cl_nz).
The commission alleges that airlines throughout the world colluded to raise the price of freighting cargo by imposing fuel surcharges for more than seven years.
That affected the price of cargo both into and out of New Zealand, the commission said.
It was today initiating legal proceedings in the High Court at Auckland.
It is alleged that airlines first entered into an illegal global agreement in 1999/2000 under the auspices of the trade organisation International Air Transport Association (Iata). The airlines imposed the fuel surcharges between 2000 and 2006.
The allegations also involve a series of regional price fixing agreements. In addition, the commission alleges that a number of airlines conspired to price fix through imposition of a security surcharge immediately following the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
The commission said that although the case potentially involved 60 airlines and a great number of individuals throughout the world, it had focused on those airlines which had the greatest impact on New Zealand as well as the most culpable individuals.
All the individuals named in the proceedings were managers holding positions of responsibility and were allegedly actively involved in promoting the conspiracy and/or they were allegedly in a position to stop the conduct and deliberately refrained from doing so.
Some airlines were cooperating with the commission and an early resolution may be possible in some cases, the commission said.
Airlines earned more than an estimated $400 million each year transporting air cargo to and from New Zealand, and during the more than seven years the agreement was in place the total revenue was about $2.9 billion.
Ms Rebstock said the airlines were under similar scrutiny by other competition authorities around the world including the US Department of Justice, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission and the European Commission.
"The commission will continue to work with its international counterparts in the drive to stamp out this conduct," she said.
New Zealand was a long way from its overseas markets and so the harm to this country's economy and its ability to compete internationally would have been disproportionately greater than in other jurisdictions in which the conduct took place.
Many New Zealand businesses and every consumer would have been directly affected by the increased air freight costs over many years. It would have resulted in increased costs for exporters and importers and higher overall prices for many consumer goods, Ms Rebstock said.
Participation in cartel activity was internationally regarded as one of the most egregious forms of anti-competitive behaviour.
"Cartels have grown on a worldwide basis and often operate at a global level," she said.
"Cartels are insidious. They are difficult to detect and extremely difficult to investigate because of their secretive and international nature."
The other airlines the commission is filing proceedings against are Cargolux International Airlines, Emirates, PT Garuda Indonesia, Japan Airlines International Co, Korean Airlines Co, Malaysian Airline System Berhad, Singapore Airlines Cargo Pte and Singapore Airlines, and Thai Airways International Public Company.

[BRICKS]

QAN might be worth a punt, heard that the A380 is doing well with airlines that own it.

QAN has two A380 now and a third on the 27th DEC so 2 go to USA 1 to GB just means they have more seats with less customers lucky the price of Fuel has come DOWN..

[upside_umop]

I think you'll find qantas is in an unlucky fuel hedging arrangement....

[BRICKS]

I think you'll find qantas is in an unlucky fuel hedging arrangement....

Hedging don't last forever and oil is FALLING..

[Skol]

I think you'll find qantas is in an unlucky fuel hedging arrangement....

Lots of airlines are Southwest particularly. Many of them made money on the way up, lose it on the way down.

[BRICKS]

QAN has two A380 now and a third on the 27th DEC so 2 go to USA 1 to GB just means they have more seats with less customers lucky the price of Fuel has come DOWN..

QANTAS will soon have 3 jumbos that they never had before that's what i was saying
don't want to hear about fuel this is a new time for the Q wonder how they will react
to new METHODS..

[tricha]

Hedging don't last forever and oil is FALLING..

Great time to buy airline stocks, when everyone is tal king them down ;)


Aviation markets hit hard as financial crisis spreads






Steve Creedy, Aviation writer | December 24, 2008

Article from: The Australian (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/)
THE financial meltdown is expected to batter aviation markets for as long as three years, with global air travel projections for 2010 now 10 per cent below pre-crisis forecasts.
With recession now forecast for North America, Japan and Europe, the International Air Transport Association is predicting global passenger traffic will fall by 3 per cent next year.
But it expects the fallout from the global financial crisis to last much longer.
"Weakness in travel markets has lasted three years in previous recessions," IATA says in its latest economic briefing. "We do not expect a return to traffic growth above 4 per cent until 2011.
"Economic forecasts imply that airline traffic will remain below the previous trend over the medium term, with passenger travel forecast to be 9 per cent lower by 2016 than pre-crisis industry forecasts." IATA also predicts that cargo freight will shrink next year, but anticipates a more rapid recovery in this area and a return to 6 per cent growth by 2010.
But freight tonnages that year are still expected to be 13 per cent lower than pre-crisis forecasts.
IATA expects load factors -- the percentage of seats filled by paying passengers -- to hold up much better than in the past because airlines have already started to cut capacity.
But it says there is little to suggest the rising load factors will lead to better yields.
"Yields have typically fallen during recessions, but this seems to have been driven more by falling costs than falling load factors. Competition keeps fares and freight rates close to costs at all times during the cycle," it says.
The IATA prediction comes as preliminary 2008 traffic figures released on Friday by another international aviation organisation, the UN-based International Civil Aviation Organisation, showed a significant drop in growth.
The ICAO figures showed traffic rose by just 1.8 per cent over 2007 and the number of passengers carried on airlines increased by just 0.8 per cent to 2.29 billion.
Cargo statistics also indicated a marginal growth in 2008 of around 1.1 per cent over 2007. This marked a sharp decrease compared with the 3.9 per cent growth in 2007.
The figures are also being reflected in some local statistics.
Sydney Airport's November traffic figures -- the latest available to date -- showed a 5.5 per cent fall in international traffic and a 1 per cent decrease in domestic figures.
While airlines are saying domestic passenger numbers are holding up over Christmas, Qantas has reported that its international traffic is suffering.
The airline's October figures showed international passenger numbers were down by 7 per cent on the previous year and the percentage of seats filled on overseas flights fell 2.4 per cent.

[Dr_Who]

Airlines are completely ****ed with higher oil price and global recession. :eek:

[Skol]

Airlines are completely ****ed with higher oil price and global recession. :eek:

Higher oil price? Have you been celebrating too much?

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rjetsin5m.htm

[shasta]

Higher oil price? Have you been celebrating too much?

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rjetsin5m.htm

Air NZ's green flight makes history

It was a history-making flight but it looked all very ordinary - and that's just how Air New Zealand wanted it.

The airline yesterday completed the world's first commercial aviation test flight using biofuel to power one of its Boeing 747-400's Rolls-Royce engines.

The biofuel is a 50:50 blend of jatropha and Jet A1 fuel
The jatropha plant - which Air New Zealand sourced from Africa and India - produces seeds that contain inedible lipid oil, which is used to produce fuel.

Air New Zealand chief pilot Captain Dave Morgan told reporters and Air New Zealand staff by satellite phone that the flight was uneventful - and he couldn't have been more pleased.

"The performance of the aircraft is very good. Nothing has occurred that we didn't anticipate ... It's notable for the lack of nothing - and that's the way we like it."

When he emerged from the plane he said it had performed "beautifully".
"We couldn't be more pleased with this significant and major milestone for the aviation industry," he said.

There's still a lot of analysis to be done but we achieved a lot with the test flight and the manoeuvres we've done. The aircraft performed flawlessly."

Captain Morgan said the performance on the biofuel blend was indistinguishable from that on normal Jet A1 fuel. Engineers would spend the next few days assessing the engine and fuel system to see if any changes had resulted from the use of biofuel.

"Overall it's been a successful day for Air New Zealand. We're very pleased with the data we've recorded."

Air New Zealand chief executive Rob Fyfe said the test flight showed the airline was at the forefront of making biofuel commercially viable. It was another step in the long-term goal to become the world's most environmentally sustainable airline.

The two-hour flight over Auckland's Hauraki Gulf put the jet through a punishing series of tests at various altitudes.

It took off at full thrust and performed acceleration tests as well as simulated a missed approach at 8000ft.

Prime Minister John Key congratulated Air New Zealand on the successful test flight.

"The fortunes of Air New Zealand and New Zealand's tourism industry are closely tied," he said.

"As we promote ourselves to the world as 100 per cent Pure, it's great to see Air New Zealand showing environmental leadership."

Mr Key said it was a historic day and he was proud the airline was working with world leaders in their fields to develop more sustainable fuels.

The test flight was a joint initiative by Air New Zealand, Boeing, Rolls-Royce and Honeywell's UOP.

It was planned for early this month but was postponed after an Air New Zealand Airbus A320 crashed off Perpignan, France, on November 27.

* Jatropha
The Jatropha plant grows to about 3m high and produces seeds containing oil that can be used to produce fuel.
Each seed produces between 30 and 40 per cent of its mass in oil.
It can be grown in a range of difficult conditions.
It is refined in the United States to produce jet fuel that can serve as a replacement to traditional petroleum-based fuel.

[tricha]

Higher oil price? Have you been celebrating too much?

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rjetsin5m.htm

Hey Skol, have you bought any oilers yet or r u still sitting on the tarmac. ;)

[Skol]

Hey Skol, have you bought any oilers yet or r u still sitting on the tarmac. ;)

Brakes are parked at the moment, certainly won't be buying oilers if I do buy.
I watch every day though to try and get a handle on what's happenening but there's a lot of confusing signals out there.

NB Noticed VBA? Up 7c in the last few days. 25%

[Financially dependant]

I watch every day though to try and get a handle on what's happenening but there's a lot of confusing signals out there.

I would agree, but Vladimir Putin seems to be making the most noise and pushing hard to get the price of oil up! He loves putting the boot in (hold by the nuts and the hearts and minds will follow kind of guy).

[Skol]

Air NZ online sales a record $34.3m last week.

www.stuff.co.nz/4825818a13.html

[The Big Ease]

Air NZ online sales a record $34.3m last week.

www.stuff.co.nz/4825818a13.htmlwhat about total sales?

[upside_umop]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4825818a13.html

Your title wasnt very representative SKOL. Good numbers online though...

[tricha]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4825818a13.html

Your title wasnt very representative SKOL. Good numbers online though...

Rule # 5 Skol, never fall in love with a company or sector ;)

Analysts concerned over Qantas traffic figures






Steve Creedy, Aviation writer | January 23, 2009

Article from: The Australian (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/)
ANALYSTS have expressed concern about growing weakness in Qantas traffic figures as some of the world's biggest airlines this week announced heavy losses.
The analysts expect yields at the Australian airline to come under increasing pressure as economic conditions deteriorate and it is forced to discount more tickets as demand softens.
JPMorgan analyst Matt Crowe said November traffic figures released this week suggested domestic yield had suffered its biggest monthly decline, 4.8 per cent since June last year.
Noting this had come before the domestic fuel surcharge was abolished in December, he said: "We expect an accelerating decline in domestic yields in the second half."
Mr Crowe, who is predicting a 2008-09 net profit of $348 million and has a neutral rating on the stock, said international yields had grown by 4.9 per cent for the year to date, suggesting a 1.1 per cent increase in November compared with a year ago.
This was reasonable in an environment of falling fuel prices, he said, but it was the weakest growth since November 2004.
Group load factors continued to fall, with the differences between this year's and last year's loads growing and looking set to widen in December.
Mr Crowe was also not upbeat on any advantages to Qantas resulting from lower fuel prices.
The airline is 40 per cent fuel-hedged in the 2010 financial year at $US98 a barrel and has option-based contracts that allow it to participate in 82 per cent of the benefit of falling fuel prices.
"But it is incorrect to see the weak oil price as positive for Qantas," he said.
"The slowing global economy is depressing demand for air travel just as much as it is depressing demand for oil."
ABN AMRO analysts, who are predicting a $305 million 2008-09 net profit and rate Qantas a hold, also highlighted the particularly weak domestic result and growing pressures on yields.
"The rate of decline continues to increase in international operations, with a 6 per cent fall in total passenger numbers," analysts Mark Williams and Michael Newbold said.
"Weak US and British economies are affecting demand for Qantas's premium product, although Jetstar International is also showing some weakness on its leisure routes. As expected, international yields are coming under increasing pressure."
Deutsche Bank's Cameron McDonald, who has a sell recommendation on Qantas and is tipping a 2008-09 net profit of $334 million, warned that the unprecedented reduction in the Australian domestic market was a lead indicator of troubles ahead for Qantas.
"With DB economists forecasting a deep global recession in 2009, we anticipate further price-stimulated demand management will further dilute Qantas's 2009 financial year profitability," Mr McDonald said.
The Qantas concerns came as Air New Zealand was tipped to join the growing list of airlines battered by hedging losses, with one analyst predicting it would cost the Kiwi carrier about $NZ333 million ($268 million) this financial year.
Heavy losses for the parent companies of American Airlines and United Airlines -- including a $US936 million ($1.43 billion) fuel hedging blunder by United -- also highlighted the depth of the downturn in global aviation.

The December quarter losses came as Air France-KLM, Europe's biggest airline, said it was likely to post an operating loss of about E200 million ($397 million) for the same period.

AMR, parent of American, the second-biggest US airline, and UAL, parent of third-placed United, yesterday signalled further reductions to their schedules and job cuts after unveiling losses bigger than market expectations.

AMR lost $US340 million in the period. Excluding costs of $US23 million for grounding planes, employee severance and facility write-offs related to capacity cuts and $US103 million for a pension settlement because of pilot early retirements, the loss was $US214 million. Sales fell 3.8 per cent to $US5.47 billion, the first decline in six quarters.

UAL lost $US1.3 billion, or $US555 million, excluding items related to fuel hedge contracts and other one-time costs. Sales fell 9.6 per cent to $US4.55 billion.

United's attempt to protect itself against soaring jet fuel costs early last year backfired when rates collapsed and left it paying more than spot market prices. So-called hedging contracts have kept United and other carriers from fully benefiting from a 67 per cent drop in the price of jet fuel since a July 3 record.

UAL's fourth-quarter results include $US370 million in cash losses on fuel contracts that settled in the quarter and $US566 million in non-cash losses to adjust contracts to current market values.

United has already cut 1500 management positions and said yesterday it was close to finishing 6500 unionised cuts, more than its initial forecast last year of 5500.

"These are difficult actions, as they affect our people, but they are responsible steps in an environment of reduced capacity and demand," chief executive Glenn Tilton said in an email to employees.

United chief operating officer John Tague said the airline would cut capacity by 9.5 per cent this year, but was "in a better position to deal with this recession than ever before". American said eight Boeing 737 jet deliveries were being delayed by a few months because of a strike at the planemaker last year. That will reduce its capacity by 6.5 per cent, one percentage point more than previously planned.

American and United are the first major US carriers to report their fourth-quarter results. Delta Air Lines, the largest, is scheduled to release results next Tuesday.

Additional reporting: Bloomberg

[Skol]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4825818a13.html

Your title wasnt very representative SKOL. Good numbers online though...

True, I was doing a bit of damage control there, but so far all looking good for airlines in this part of the world-at the moment.

[BRICKS]

NEXT week return AIR fares to AULCKLAND $300 with tax paid and in the new jumbo
now that is CHEEP..

[tricha]

NEXT week return AIR fares to AULCKLAND $300 with tax paid and in the new jumbo
now that is CHEEP..

Heres the green light for u Skol, put your money where your mouth is and with cheap oil u can not surely lose.;)

Qantas on runway for investor cash
Scott Rochfort

February 4, 2009
QANTAS is planning to raise up to $750 million in equity to buffer itself from the worst aviation downturn in 20 years. It will join a long list of blue-chip companies to seek a handout from shareholders recently.
Following a price query from the stock exchange yesterday, Qantas placed its shares in a trading halt, "pending a material announcement in relation to capital management initiatives".
The airline and its advisers, UBS and Macquarie, were tight-lipped before the Qantas board meeting last night, which was to consider the placement.
Qantas rejected a Herald report four months ago that suggested the airline was considering such a move, and said the airline "had no plans or need for a capital raising".
But after being caught off-guard by the price query yesterday, management alerted its staff that its half-year results slated for February 19 would be brought forward by two weeks. The share price query was prompted by an unexplained slump of 16 per cent, to $2.29, on Monday.
When Qantas comes out of its trading halt, as soon as today, the market is expected to focus on its outlook for the second half and the following financial year because there are signs that the slowdown began to bite hard on its domestic and international bookings only last month.
Qantas said in response to the price query that it did not expect its full-year profits to vary by more than 15 per cent from the guidance it gave in November.
The raising would be the first big test of the airline's new chief executive, Alan Joyce. Investors have already seen Qantas shares more than halve in the past year.
But Qantas could face a backlash from some. "I'm struggling to see why they need to do it," one fund manager said.
A rival banker said the sudden trading halt may mean the price underwritten by Macquarie and UBS is at a steep discount to the last trading price, and that if the shares resumed trading without an underwritten placement ready to go to shareholders, they could be savaged.
Some have speculated the capital raising - the airline's first since 2002 - could be accompanied by a restructure of its management and operations, involving the replacement of some Qantas services with Jetstar flights. Qantas is rumoured to be about to replace its domestic operations in New Zealand with its low-cost subsidiary.
A raising could intensify pressure on its loss-making rival Virgin Blue to outline capital management plans. The upcoming launch of its long-haul carrier V Australia is expected to place further pressure on its already strained balance sheet.
In June a UBS research note warned Virgin would have to raise more equity for the 30-odd jets on order. The slump in the dollar would have blown out the costs.

[Skol]

I'm watching.
You forgot to mention that Qantas is expecting a full year profit of about $500 million, a lot better than many 'oilers' will be at the moment.

[tricha]

I'm watching.
You forgot to mention that Qantas is expecting a full year profit of about $500 million, a lot better than many 'oilers' will be at the moment.


Then if they are so sound, why this ? QANTAS is planning to raise up to $750 million in equity to buffer itself from the worst aviation downturn in 20 years
And oil's so cheap to boot :confused:

I think I will keep out of oilers for a while, till the price goes up and if this is D day, it could be years.
But theres no way in the world I will be sponsoring, goverment backed transportation companies.:rolleyes:

[Huang Chung]

I think I will keep out of oilers for a while

Tricha...I can't believe what I'm reading.....what ever happened to 'You got your oiler yet?'

[shasta]

Tricha...I can't believe what I'm reading.....what ever happened to 'You got your oiler yet?'

Gotta agree there HC, with the Northern Hemisphere winter, it's only a matter of time IMHO that Oil & Gas prices will start to rise.

Probably a good time to buy into a cashed up/low debt oil & gas producer?

[The Big Ease]

Gotta agree there HC, with the Northern Hemisphere winter, it's only a matter of time IMHO that Oil & Gas prices will start to rise.

Probably a good time to buy into a cashed up/low debt oil & gas producer?

mate, winter is nearly over...its february!

btw, ryanair announces 100m euro loss for the quarter.

[shasta]

mate, winter is nearly over...its february!

btw, ryanair announces 100m euro loss for the quarter.

Isn't London almost completely snowed over!

The US is also largely frozen too!

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/stormcenter/default.htm?loc=interstitialskip

[The Big Ease]

Isn't London almost completely snowed over!

The US is also largely frozen too!

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/stormcenter/default.htm?loc=interstitialskip
yeah it snowed for about 12 hours.
but my point is that waiting for this to take effect on the oil price is wishful thinking imo. winter is nearly over. the snow has melted in london...if the price of oil was going to go up, it would have done so by now....not much left of winter. unless the cold weather lingers well into autumn, then its not going to matter.

[Skol]

Then if they are so sound, why this ?QANTAS is planning to raise up to $750 million in equity to buffer itself from the worst aviation downturn in 20 years

Probably they've got a few A380's on order they need to pay for.

[tricha]

[quote=Huang Chung;242504]Tricha...I can't believe what I'm reading.....what ever happened to 'You got your oiler yet?'[/quote

This is worse than we have seen before, when millions lose their job, they are not driving anywhere soon.:(

[BRICKS]

[quote=Huang Chung;242504]Tricha...I can't believe what I'm reading.....what ever happened to 'You got your oiler yet?'[/quote

This is worse than we have seen before, when millions lose their job, they are not driving anywhere soon.:(

THATS really over the top the world is not stopping its just all the crooks are now paying the penalty`s for there PAST..

[tricha]

[quote=tricha;242697]

THATS really over the top the world is not stopping its just all the crooks are now paying the penalty`s for there PAST..

Hmm, do u see all these "pigs in the trough" going to jail, Hmm, only a few and the once mighty USA, wants to top them up. :D instead of letting them crash and burn.


Huang "Tricha...I can't believe what I'm reading.....what ever happened to 'You got your oiler yet?' "

Yeah, u heard right Huang, with the USA entering the big D, demand destruction is one way traffic.
I'm over it, even Peter Strahaun admitted last week, oilers are history unless they hit an elephant.

What the answer, watch more cricket.

Aussie cricketing misery deepens

AAP - February 7, 2009, 1:04 am
http://l.yimg.com/fv/xp/aap/20090206/18/596092799.jpg?x=250&sig=9yTFAOgLdnqJ_7dYtb.8BQ-- AAP © (http://nz.sports.yahoo.com/photos/zoom/-/5305034)

Australia's season of cricketing misery plumbed new depths as New Zealand handed the home side a six-wicket thrashing at the MCG on Friday night.
Chasing Australia's 5-225, the Kiwis romped home, reaching 4-226 with seven balls to spare.
After dangerous opener Brendon McCullum (43 from 75 balls) gave the visitors a solid platform, Ross Taylor (47 from 74 balls) and Grant Elliott (61 not out from 75 balls) rammed home the advantage.
The loss put Australia 2-0 down in the five-match one-day series against New Zealand and on a five-match losing streak overall, after three preceding losses to South Africa.
It means Australia will have to go unbeaten through the final three games against NZ, starting in Sydney on Sunday, to avoid their third series defeat of the summer, having already lost a Test and one-day series to the Proteas.
While NZ always looked comfortable in their run-chase, it was a calamitous 37th over for Australia, bowled by part-time off-spinner David Hussey, which signalled the beginning of the end.
The Kiwis started the over at 3-143, needing 83 off the remaining 14 overs at virtually a run a ball.
Taylor, on 37, gave Australia a chance to get back into the game when he lofted a shot deep into the leg-side, with Mike Hussey having to make plenty of ground but comfortably able to get both hands to the ball.
But he spilled the chance and the ball trickled over the boundary.
The following delivery David Hussey speared down leg-side, with neither batsman nor `keeper getting near it as it sped to the fine leg rope for five wides.
It helped the tally to 10 runs for that over and seemed to free the spirits of the NZ batsmen, who then plundered 17 off the next three to seize complete command.
Left-arm paceman Mitchell Johnson gave Australia some hope when he dismissed Taylor in the 42nd over, but Elliott and Neil Broom (25 from 21 balls) cruised home with an unbeaten half-century stand.
All-rounder James Hopes was the best of the Australian bowlers, picking up 2-30 from 10 overs during the middle of the NZ innings to peg them back temporarily, but paceman Ben Hilfenhaus yielded an expensive 0-57.
Adding to Australia's pain, stand-in captain Michael Clarke earlier copped a nasty blow on the toe from NZ paceman Iain O'Brien, shortly before being bowled for 98.
Clarke and Mike Hussey (75) had staged a rescue effort to at least turn an Australian innings which started poorly into a target worth defending.
Clarke took to the field with a hole cut in his left shoe to avoid further pain, but did not seem restricted, moving freely and bowling tidily.
The match was watched by a small MCG crowd of 28,251, suggesting Australia's dwindling form might have affected attendance, with the volume of support for the visitors indicating NZ fans made up a decent proportion.
Despite top-scoring and earning man of the match honours, Clarke said he felt a large share of the blame for Australia not getting a big enough total.
"I guess in the batting we were probably 20 or 30 short and I take responsibility for that," he said.
"If I turn my innings into 130, it's a different game, especially on that wicket.
"I think both Huss and myself found it pretty difficult against their spinners, the wicket was quite slow and we found it pretty hard to score so I think we were 30 runs short."
Clarke was confident the toe injury would not stop him playing in Sydney.
"I'll ice it tonight and see how it pulls up in the morning but I'm very confident it will be fine," he said.
Blacks Caps captain Daniel Vettori was confident his side could clinch the series on Sunday.
"People perceive the SCG to be the wicket that New Zealanders should most enjoy, so we're hoping it's similar to the last two decks," he said.
"They have suited us, those style of wickets.
"If we turn up there and produce what we did with the ball and in the field then I think we've got a chance of winning the series."

[BRICKS]

[QUOTE=tricha;242697]

THATS really over the top the world is not stopping its just all the crooks are now paying the penalty`s for there PAST..

Not all crooks go to jail and some live happily ever after called RETIRMENT,

BUT tricha to become a ball watcher its not YOU..

[Skol]

XAL, the Amex airline index up 5% for the week.
Delta up 12%, decline in passenger numbers less than expected.

[tricha]

XAL, the Amex airline index up 5% for the week.
Delta up 12%, decline in passenger numbers less than expected.

Hey Skol, wake up its in freefall.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/VBA/1y/line/30/0/

[tricha]

XAL, the Amex airline index up 5% for the week.
Delta up 12%, decline in passenger numbers less than expected.

Hey Skol r u awake yet :confused: Last

176.5
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/red_round_small.gif 9.5 5.1%
5:31 pm

QANQantas Airways Limited FPOhttp://www.stocknessmonster.com/images/australia.gif http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/QAN/1y/line/30/0/

[tricha]

SKOL -"tricha,
What recession, aircraft are still full, while oil's at multi year lows."


Hey Skol VBA and QAN are dirt cheap, time to buy more. ;) Do u still hold VBA :confused:
They might be a bit cheaper tomorrow.


ASX RELEASE
Virgin Blue Holdings Limited
AUSTRALIAN DOMESTIC CAPACITY TO BE REDUCED
BY UP TO 5 AIRCRAFT
In response to continued forecast deterioration in domestic demand, Virgin Blue today
announced a decision to remove a further 8% annualised of capacity or up to 5 aircraft, from
Australian domestic flying for 2009/10.
The company said the reductions were a prudent interim capacity management plan. The
aircraft will be managed as operational spares but will not be redeployed until next year.
The capacity reduction impacts up to 400 full-time equivalent positions in Virgin Blue.
The company is exploring a range of initiatives to minimise the headcount reduction including
transferring staff from Virgin Blue to the new international long haul airline V Australia, part-time
work, job sharing, and leave without pay, amongst other contingencies under consideration.
Further information:
Heather Jeffery
General Manager Public Affairs
Virgin Blue
0412 922 122
heather.jeffery@virginblue.com.au

P.S u certainly got the second part right Skol.

[Skol]

In case you didn't notice, Virgin Australia AND Delta are starting on the Australia-USA route in 2009.
There might be a recession but not where I work, it's all hunky dory.

[upside_umop]

Thought I'd post this....quite interesting, from wikipedia.

Just as I said earlier, airlines are public service...fits the title of this thread relatively well.


Wikipedida - Historically, air travel has survived largely through state support, whether in the form of equity or subsidies. The airline industry as a whole has made a cumulative loss during its 120-year history, once the costs include subsidies for aircraft development and airport construction

[Skol]

Thought I'd post this....quite interesting, from wikipedia.

Just as I said earlier, airlines are public service...fits the title of this thread relatively well.
Well if you're going into the finance business you might be a civil servant yourself because Obama has floated nationalising all the major banks.
It's already happened in the UK with the Masters of the Universe over there, who in many cases leveraged themselves 35 times now on the unemployment benefit.
Airlines are used to bad times and bad news and can adapt, the finance industry, bloated and greedy, pigging out on bonuses can't.

Since you're a financial expert maybe you can tell us how airlines that are not publicly owned are still actually flying, because if they're permanently losing money, then isn't it time to call in the financial whizz kids like yourself to wind them up?

And it's going to get a lot worse, the recession is going to uncover heaps of scumbags and lowlifes who were former bankers, hedge fund managers, and private equity hotshots who were running nothing but pyramid schemes.

I intimated quite some time back on this site that bad things would happen.

PS. You might want to look for a job in the airlines, besides they'll probably be paying a lot more than the banks for the foreseeable future.

And while we're on the subject of money, read about Dubai, another house of cards built on debt.

www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10558287

A great example of 'The Intelligentsia'. The intellectual elite of NZ.
No need to worry, the future of NZ's in their capable hands.

www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10558500

[upside_umop]

Going cheap, one Boeing 747-400, 20 years old, offers over $10 million, seats not included.

Air New Zealand grounded the jumbo jet in November as the airline slashed capacity on its long-haul international network by 15 per cent to cope with falling demand.
Capacity would also be 14 per cent down during the April to June low season compared with the same time last year to maintain economic load levels.
This would be done through a mix of replacing Boeing 747-400 services with smaller 777-200ERs and cutting back the schedule.
But chief financial officer Rob McDonald said the prospects for selling the 747 sitting at Auckland airport "aren't huge" in a market where it joined 1000 other aircraft, expected by some to reach 3000 by the end of the year, already parked around the world.
Air New Zealand has also ordered a fifth new 777-300ER, with the first of these to arrive late next year, to replace the ageing fleet of eight 747s.
Lengthy production delays for the next generation long-haul 787-9 means these aircraft would not start arriving until early 2013, more than two years late.
Air New Zealand also received a $76 million insurance payout for the loss of its Airbus A320 which crashed off the French Mediterranean coast in November last year, with the loss of all seven crew, including five New Zealanders. Chief executive Rob Fyfe said the airline did not expect any claims for liability relating to the accident. The two-year old aircraft was on a pre-delivery test flight and operated by German charter airline XL Airways at the time of the crash.
Globally international passenger numbers slumped by 5.6 per cent in January compared with the same time in 2008.
Demand has now fallen for five consecutive months, latest figures from the International Air Transport Association show.
IATA director general Giovanni Bisignani said although fuel prices had remained well below last year's record levels, the drop in demand was much more damaging for the airline industry.
"The industry is shrinking with revenues expected to fall by US$35 billion (NZ$69b) to US$500b, delivering a loss of US$2.5b this year," Mr Bisignani said.

[Skol]

Still making money though, and in the Herald today Air NZ has the lowest gearing ratio of all the major companies at 6.2% and $1.4b in the bank.

Clutching at straws there Upside.

I just saw on TV an hour ago, Jim Rogers, saying that in Western Europe, the Governments, with the exception of Germany, don't have the money to bail the banks out.

Aren't these banks your future employers?

[upside_umop]

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25162464-643,00.html

VIRGIN Blue shares reached a low of 18c yesterday after the airline sector was hit by signs of weakening demand in key overseas markets, including the US.

Shares in Australia's No.2 carrier showed no sign of pushing back above the 20c level and closed unchanged at 18.5c. Qantas shares fell 5.5c to $1.42.

The poor showings came after statistics on Friday revealed that 2 per cent fewer Australians travelled overseas in January.

Overall arrivals rose 6.4 per cent but key markets continued to weaken, with arrivals from Japan down 33.4 per cent and the US falling 9.3 per cent.

Outbound business travel also fell by 24.3 per cent in January, the lowest level since April 2003, although leisure travel rose 4 per cent.

There were also some signs that growth in short-haul overseas travel, while still up 4 per cent in January, was slowing.

At least one analyst believes these conditions will favour Virgin over Qantas.

Credit Suisse notes the smaller airline has relatively low exposure to long-haul travel and should continue to benefit from the relative strength of short-haul business travel.

But Virgin shares, which traded for $2.80 as recently as 2007, have continued to slip since the airline last month reported an interim net loss after tax of $101.4 million and a 65 per cent fall in underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) to $39.9 million,

While the current share price is below analysts' targets of 27c to $1.20, there are mixed views on what to do with the stock.

A Bloomberg survey shows recommendations include two buys, a sell, an underperform, an outperform and a hold.

The Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation yesterday said Virgin's shares had fallen by more than a third since the beginning of the year because of "relentless pressures" at home and internationally.

It cited last month's comments by chief executive Brett Godfrey that Virgin was facing an exceptionally challenging and unprecedented operating environment.

"The entry of V Australia on the Pacific route is confronting severe headwinds as demand slips and competitor Qantas cuts its lowest fares to about a third of the pre-V Australia announcement levels," the Sydney-based aviation think-tank said.

"The situation is not helped by a need for the restructuring of the carrier's current shareholding, where Virgin Group holds a veto-controlling 25.5 per cent and is unlikely to withdraw at current price levels."


Seems like your clutching at straws dude....if you have noticed, I'm not replying back to your pitiful questions as they are totally unrelated and trying to be a direct 'stab.' Facts are facts, theres plenty of jobs going about out there in all industries. Why do you always say you make more money in airlines, when you clearly dont? I really dont understand.....

Answering your question on countries not having money? Where are you on this world? I guess that shows your lack of understanding of the central banks/governments doesnt it.

Air NZ certainly do have a lot of cash in the bank, but made an operating loss last year, and were only profitable from FX gains right? They also see the threat of declining passengers as greater than the recent high oil prices.

Cheers, hope your still not holding, for your sake.

[Skol]

Don't like your chances of joining the Masters of the Universe in the finance world, I think you might be out there with them on that other planet wherever that is. Where are the jobs, Lehmanns, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, they're all bust?
Dubai's tits up, London finance experts and 'hedgies' as they call them calling in the receivers.
I can tell you for sure the airline industry is going well and load factors are as good as I've ever seen them.

Jim Rogers says the real people who make real things are the ones who are going to be driving the Lambos. Like farmers, maybe even airlines, not brokers or bean counters.

[upside_umop]

Don't like your chances of joining the Masters of the Universe in the finance world, I think you might be out there with them on that other planet wherever that is. Where are the jobs, Lehmanns, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, they're all bust?
Dubai's tits up, London finance experts and 'hedgies' as they call them calling in the receivers.
I can tell you for sure the airline industry is going well and load factors are as good as I've ever seen them.

Jim Rogers says the real people who make real things are the ones who are going to be driving the Lambos. Like farmers, maybe even airlines, not brokers or bean counters.

Like i said, I'm not going into investment banking - just yet. It will recover fine...maybe there wont be as high wages from the effects of regulation, but those in governments should have a closer look at themselves...its a failure of legislation that has got us into this position. Not a failure of banks. If the states had adequate rules surrounding home ownership, we wouldnt be facing such a catastrophe.

Ie.

(1)Limited liability - sending keys to bank.
(2)Prudent lending - lending 100-110% is not prudent and was certain to increase volatility, which would then lead to an increase of (2).

Ill say it again:


Globally international passenger numbers slumped by 5.6 per cent in January compared with the same time in 2008.
Demand has now fallen for five consecutive months, latest figures from the International Air Transport Association show.
IATA director general Giovanni Bisignani said although fuel prices had remained well below last year's record levels, the drop in demand was much more damaging for the airline industry.
"The industry is shrinking with revenues expected to fall by US$35 billion (NZ$69b) to US$500b, delivering a loss of US$2.5b this year," Mr Bisignani said.

I like Jim Rogers, but he becomes a little simplistic on certain things. Financiers create efficent markets, which are vital as you can now see what the damage the effects of distortions in the market place can be. Heard of 'credit crunch?' As long as these guys who are on extrodinary wages are contributing to an increase in the overall standard of living, the salary/bonuses they earn are valid in economic sense. Dont get all tall poppy on me now will you?

Farmers will do ok, as the world is entering a population age (already has)...but is expected to peak at 10 billion people in the not so distant future (2050?). So any limited resource will do well....including oil. They can always build more planes, sadly enough.

[Skol]

Air NZ passenger numbers up.
www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/2249775/Tourist-bookings-on-the-increase

The days of big bonuses are well and truly over, the credibility of hedge fund managers and big time financiers is in tatters, so I wouldn't be counting on that one. Obama's going to stick it to them as well.
It's highly likely that most major banks in the US & Europe will be government owned after this debacle, so you'll be a civil servant.
Just goes to show how dumb these people were and these were Oxbridge and Yale graduates, cracks me up just thinking about it.

Even I knew there was going to be trouble, 2 years ago I moved my super scheme to 50% cash, 50% balanced.

According to Bloomberg, hedge funds are going to sack 20,000 workers after client assets dived by 37%.

[srowe]

O K guys we get the Picture Niether Airlines or finance is a great investment ATM

Mayby we should be looking at whoever makes Prozac

[Snapper]

Family of 4 to the Gold Coast in September return

Air NZ > $2000
Pacific Blue approx $1800
Jetstar.... $1096!!

The competition's hotting up!