Oil

[dumbass]

correcting in a 4 th wave before a run to higher levels

im picking a run higher very soon from current level then back down to complete correction

may get some assistance from 200 day ma

then a sustained move higher to complete 5 th wave

if price gets to 111 then this count is wrong

[dumbass]

thanks AA

can you tell me how to post it from a saved html file on desktop

ive been messing around and it still looks small

[dumbass]

thanks AA i will give it a bash

if your interested heres a little more substance

elliot wave 4 will typically complete around wave 4 of one lesser degree

ie black 4 will retrace to blue 4

there is a 38 .2 fib level of complete wave 1 - 3 (black) at this level

there is a 50 fib level at internal 1-5 (blue) the third wave at this level

rsi is heading to over sold levels and has rallied from around this level in prior rallies

so im watching closely

[dumbass]

correcting in a 4 th wave before a run to higher levels

im picking a run higher very soon from current level then back down to complete correction

may get some assistance from 200 day ma

then a sustained move higher to complete 5 th wave

if price gets to 111 then this count is wrong

sitting right on 200 day ma so lets see if anything happens , getting close to make or break

on a correction, possibly a new down trend ? still feel we are going higher though and soon

[arco]

Pure conjecture.........but just wonder if this might be Oils path.

..............only time will tell

[arco]

Iraq's oil is flowing a bit more freely


IRAQ'S oil production averaged over 2.4m barrels a day in the second quarter, the highest level since America invaded in 2003. This should boost the country's oil revenues to around $80 billion this year and production should keep on rising as security improves. Iraqi oil is cheap to extract and there are probably new fields to be found. But political uncertainty is hampering the investment needed to overhaul existing infrastructure and oilfields that might dramatically boost output in near future.



http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgallery/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11950396&fsrc=RSS

[arco]

........................

The crude oil story is now changing, and changing fast. Demand for gasoline is falling. Motorists in the U.S. drove 12 billion fewer miles in June from the same month a year ago. This is the eighth straight month of declines and the worst drop since the oil shock of the 1970's.


Likewise, demand for crude oil is falling. On top of that, supplies of crude coming out of key OPEC countries are growing. And the downshift in oil prices is happening so quickly because few people expected this shift was even possible.

[arco]

.

Gulf storm shuts US oil and gas production

Published: August 28 2008 23:22


The US oil and gas industry began to shut down production in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday after forecasters predicted that tropical storm Gustav would be a hurricane when it hit the region. The Gulf produces 20 per cent of US oil and gas supplies. Prices in New York topped $120 a barrel but fell after the International Energy Agency said strategic stocks would be released if disruptions were serious.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f55dab8e-754b-11dd-ab30-0000779fd18c.html

[Bilo]

.

Gulf storm shuts US oil and gas production

Published: August 28 2008 23:22


The US oil and gas industry began to shut down production in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday after forecasters predicted that tropical storm Gustav would be a hurricane when it hit the region. The Gulf produces 20 per cent of US oil and gas supplies. Prices in New York topped $120 a barrel but fell after the International Energy Agency said strategic stocks would be released if disruptions were serious.


If Gustav does hit it is still going to take many millions of barrels per day out of circulation - not to be caught up quickly - and if rigs/refineries/coastline gets damaged then this can last for many weeks/months as per Katrina. The mere fact that the emergency stocks get tapped is only a short term measure - expect the POO to march upowards (but with continued interventions to dampen speculators ardour....

[arco]

Mexico Is the World's #6 Oil Producing Nation;
Cantarell Provides Nearly 60% of Mexican Crude Oil Output

In July, output at Mexico's largest oil field, Cantarell, was off 37% from the year earlier period, dropping to 974,000 barrels per day (bpd). What's more, Cantarell's production has already been cut by more than half from its 2004 peak of 2.113 million barrels per day


Full article



http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle+articleid_2574857.html

[arco]

WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - Hurricane Ike appears to have damaged about 10 oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. officials said on Sunday, raising concerns the storm could hurt oil production and lead to a spike in prices at U.S. gas stations.
Eileen Angelico, a spokeswoman with the U.S. Mineral Management Service (MMS), told Agence France-Presse that officials were only able to make a rough estimate of the number of damaged platforms based on 'flyovers' of the area, which has some 3,800 oil platforms. 'We expect (the number of) damaged platforms to be around 10,' she said, adding the reports of damage at this point are 'preliminary'. 'We don't know yet the extent of this damage,' she said. The MMS said Hurricane Katrina in 2005 ravaged 44 platforms, while Hurricane Rita, which struck the Gulf Coast oil installations later that year, damaged 64 platforms. Ike hammered the oil hub early Saturday, apparently impairing U.S. oil production as it stranded thousands of people and caused billions of dollars in damage.

[arco]

http://houston.bizjournals.com/houston/stories/2008/09/15/daily56.html

[peat]

yeh i think a recent email from EWI commented that from an oil perspective what had just happened was much worse than Katrina....
and with US$ set for a fall again as indicated by gold and silver then oil could be setting up for a long I spose......

[dumbass]

following NZO with a nice elliot count.

5 waves up then looks like a zig zag 5-3-5 correction which looks like its pretty close to completing.

135 looks about the level to look for confirmation but possibilty 5th wave will extend to 120 area printing a gartley.

so a possible long shaping up.

[Mick100]

What are your thoughts on the USD (index) and crude oil dumbass?

TIA
,

[dumbass]

mick, not a clear picture at the moment as some serious event risk in play.

have looked at dollar index big picture and posted chart on dow thread then i'll

post a chart on oil

[dumbass]

still counting as a fourth wave correction but admittedly running pretty deep.

if correct will see a new high in oil .

some signs to suggest oil may have bottomed

hammer on the weekly.

4h channel line broken.

price has bounced off 61.8 retracement

200 ema providing resistance, if broken another bullish sign .

[Hoop]

following NZO with a nice elliot count.

5 waves up then looks like a zig zag 5-3-5 correction which looks like its pretty close to completing.

135 looks about the level to look for confirmation but possibilty 5th wave will extend to 120 area printing a gartley.

so a possible long shaping up.

Dumbass have a look at my post #5543 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5112&page=370) written 22 July 2008 Its rather long but everything in it is still relevant. At that time NZO posters were optimistic and looking at $2.00, so obviously my post got no mention apart from Oiler #5547

MY QUOTE IN THAT #5543 POST ..
"...If it breaks 153 support it has a more than 50% chance of testing the next 132/5 support and some chance again reaching the 120c TA target..."

It seems we have a couple of ducks lining up in a row...interesting:)

[Mick100]

awesome charts dumbass

thanks

[dumbass]

hi hoop , nice work , different technique same conclusions.
good confirmation.

hey mick , no problem.

do you or anyone else have any thoughts on what aus oilers to look at.

its not yet confirmed but i have a hunch the equity markets and oil are about to run higher.

[AMR]

hi hoop , nice work , different technique same conclusions.
good confirmation.

hey mick , no problem.

do you or anyone else have any thoughts on what aus oilers to look at.

its not yet confirmed but i have a hunch the equity markets and oil are about to run higher.

Me too here. It's as if the support at 11,000 is absolutely unbreakable. Maybe when the European giants declare subprime losses we will see some pain, but that could be many months away.

[Mick100]

I'm quietly optimistic dumbass but
I'll feel better about the markets once we are through october
Second half of october is usually positive for the markets

As far as oilers are concerned I'v held smallcaps , midcaps and a large cap over the years. The one that performed best is the large cap (STO) to date. I'v given up on investing in small caps, although if your lucky you can make a killing on these. Where I see really good value at the moment is in the producing midcaps. They have been absolutely smashed along with the smallcaps. I think the midcaps will recover quickly if oil runs again. One of my favourites at the moment is our own NZO.
Others that have been undeservidly beaten up are TAP, PSA. (they will look ugly on the charts)

disc. holding - NZO,STO, AED, TAP, PSA, AWE

[dumbass]

heres what im seeing in the dow.

the correction has unfolded in a 3 major waves labelled A B C

a common corrective relationship is where A = C in points

A = 2563 POINTS with C = 2673 POINTS , so quite feasable bottom in at 10462

multiple time frame indicator divergence, from weekly to daily to hourly charts at the bottom.

on the hourly a big bullish engulfing pattern which could be a wave 1 up

wave 2 down tested and rejected 61.8 retracement of wave 1

which is a classic elliot wave relationship.

elliot wave confirmation would come in 5 waves up and a 3 wave correction not taking out
10 462 bottom.

i would feel confident if 10 753 remains intact and the market rallys past 11 477 in the next week.

probably the biggest factor in favouring a bullish stance is the extreme bearish sentiment which should propel this rally upwards pretty violently.

at the moment caution and good money manangement is the most essential part of trading and a clearly defined risk is critical. there is still a chance this market may drive lower.
Also this is not a new bull market bottom but a MAJOR B WAVE 3 wave rally which should terminate in about 6 - 8 months before the MAJOR C WAVE comes back down to new lows

[dumbass]

i just took one of your oilers mick at random ,

there are some possible signs that TAP is bottoming.

massively oversold on rsi , couple of spinning tops on the weekly chart.

nice downtrend channel that may be the place to watch for a breakout.

the downtrend has stopped at the 161 extension of the jan -may 08 rally printing at 83.97.

which is pretty much the low so far.

i will work through the rest of your list and post some charts.

[bermuda]

heres what im seeing in the dow.

the correction has unfolded in a 3 major waves labelled A B C

a common corrective relationship is where A = C in points

A = 2563 POINTS with C = 2673 POINTS , so quite feasable bottom in at 10462

multiple time frame indicator divergence, from weekly to daily to hourly charts at the bottom.

on the hourly a big bullish engulfing pattern which could be a wave 1 up

wave 2 down tested and rejected 61.8 retracement of wave 1

which is a classic elliot wave relationship.

elliot wave confirmation would come in 5 waves up and a 3 wave correction not taking out
10 462 bottom.

i would feel confident if 10 753 remains intact and the market rallys past 11 477 in the next week.

probably the biggest factor in favouring a bullish stance is the extreme bearish sentiment which should propel this rally upwards pretty violently.

at the moment caution and good money manangement is the most essential part of trading and a clearly defined risk is critical. there is still a chance this market may drive lower.
Also this is not a new bull market bottom but a MAJOR B WAVE 3 wave rally which should terminate in about 6 - 8 months before the MAJOR C WAVE comes back down to new lows

So what you are saying.... is the market going up or down????

I dont understand this Elliot Wave theory. Either it is going up or down. I mean you have to make your mind up eh?

[Mick100]

So what you are saying.... is the market going up or down????

I dont understand this Elliot Wave theory. Either it is going up or down. I mean you have to make your mind up eh?

I'll try and explain bermuda. DA can correct me if I'm wrong
Bear markets go down with three waves
A - first down leg
B - upleg
C - 2nd downleg

The two down legs (a&c) are usually close to the same magnitude
Taking the bear market as a whole what we have seen so far is the first A downleg. Next 6-8 months we see the B upleg , then the C downleg which should be another 4500 points down

looks like a reasonable, logical forcast to me
,

[arco]

Bermuda

This may help.......

http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets.htm



http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics_images/fig_2.gif

Oil is possibly in the ABC phase now, and this could then be followed by a further 5 waves up. Each of the down-legs in the 1-5 are also ABC's


rgds - arco

[dumbass]

So what you are saying.... is the market going up or down????

I dont understand this Elliot Wave theory. Either it is going up or down. I mean you have to make your mind up eh?

i've made up my mind, here it is in a simple version.

UP

target 12700

completely wrong below 10 462

worried about being wrong below 10 753

[Financially dependant]

Are we seeing a double bottom forming for oil?

I was thinking any fed support would see oil bounce of previous low?

[dumbass]

hi mick, i was lucky enough to spend some time with an oil trader and he gave me a chart with a count on it you may find usefull.
the chart is similar to what i posted but it has this big spike to 130 a couple of weeks ago which they have included in their count , so must be the real deal.
im guessing it must be a forward futures contract chart .
if you can tell me the ticker code i can post it.

[Mick100]

im guessing it must be a forward futures contract chart .
if you can tell me the ticker code i can post it.

yeah DA - that chart was for the oct contract . I can't pull that chart up anymore - it disappeared when the oct contract stops trading - the spike was on the last day of trading for oct contract

I'v been looking at the monthly oil chart (from 1999) - that last wave up to $147 could have been a wave 5 - what do you think?

[arco]

Heres the spike, but you will need to get a follow on chart

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/crude-oil-22-9-08.png




http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6405.html

[arco]

This may be more helpful..................

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/daily-crude-oil-1-10-08.gif

[Packersoldkidney]

This may be more helpful..................

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/daily-crude-oil-1-10-08.gif

Indeed it is, thanks Arco. :)

[dumbass]

i have doctored metastock to show spike.

the accepted bullish count doing the rounds is the chart i posted previously with correction complete and 5th wave in progress.
the guys i spoke to earlier in the week showed me why that count is likely to be wrong and this is there preferred count

A complete
B wave spike

A=C 80 minumum target and maybe lower.

[arco]

Packers

Good to see you back on the forum :)

rgds - arco

[AMR]

Head and shoulders setup on the 4 hrs. My target based on overhead resistance and trendlines is the $90 dollar mark.

[peat]

oil has actually done a bullish gartley on the daily

[AMR]

Well that H&S bottom fizzled completely. Guess that shows that every counter-trend sucker rally begins with a bullish chart pattern. Trend > Patterns.

[peat]

a week later and a trendline could be drawn on the hourly as the stop loss (which would now intersect break even point ) to prevent the trade going bad.

[peat]

another gann global picture showing how they use a number of historic moves of various commodities to project the current ones. you see how the laying of numerous historic waves up from major lows cluster around where we are currently and how then how the projections for the following down leg fan out into the future .
they suggest the turning point of oil around 80.
green projections are bull markets - red are bear mkts

he says the best buy point for investors and speculators is at the end of the (coming) leg down

[peat]

the butterfly theory says oil is now at critical support level of 69
if it breaks it might go to 59.