Wake Up! Resources are sooo Last Season...

[Lizard]

Can we start posting on something other than oil/gas/minerals now?

Consumer staples and industrials are the new black! :cool:

[Mick100]

Can we start posting on something other than oil/gas/minerals now?

Consumer staples and industrials are the new black! :cool:

You should enter the above post in the jokes competition lizard

[Footsie]

Totally agree LIZ

Talk about companies that make money .... not those who have a pipe dream about extracting Iron Ore from the tenement they hold in the Pilbara in 5 years time and selling to the Chinese and 10x the current price.

Healthcare, IT, Media,

[shane_m]

MMS MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE LIMITED

No. Ordinary Shares 67.5
Market Price at 07/08/2008 $2.20
Equity per Ordinary Share $0.71
Year High $6.11
Year Low $2.06
NTA $0.21
Intangibles $0.50
Liabilities $0.21
Borrowings $0.00
Net Debt Per Equity Ratio 0.0%
Normalised Earnings $0.32
Normalised ROFE 53.0%
Dividend $0.16
Dividend Yield 7.1%
Grossed Up Dividend Yield 10.1%
Equity Ratio 77.1%

[shasta]

Can we start posting on something other than oil/gas/minerals now?

Consumer staples and industrials are the new black! :cool:

I'm keen to look again into Viticulture, although not just yet...

[STRAT]

This thread doesnt seem like a wind up Liz :p

[arco]

Quite an interesting article on The Market Oracle
Commodities Super Cycle Heading for Demand Destruction?


http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5791.html

[Jess9]

What ever your outlook, commodity shares must take a further pummeling next week post Friday's price action (Gold, oil, Dow and USD). Boy, that Dow and USD are just doing crazy things ATM. What to be in and when is getting quite difficult! Bit of heavy TA reading coming-up : )

[shasta]

What ever your outlook, commodity shares must take a further pummeling next week post Friday's price action (Gold, oil, Dow and USD). Boy, that Dow and USD are just doing crazy things ATM. What to be in and when is getting quite difficult! Bit of heavy TA reading coming-up : )

How about drug companies, in this environment im sure "depression" is on the rise...:confused:

Or the new NZ term "SAD" Seasonal Affective Disorder, especially in Wellington with a serious lack of Vitamin D this cold, wet winter...:(

[shasta]

I'm keen to look again into Viticulture, although not just yet...

As a side interest (that may or may not lead to an investment) i'm watching two "non resource" companies, that are worth a mention.

LWB - Little World Beverages - a boutique brewery of premium beers
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080822/pdf/31bvfs8m5xz5by.pdf
AVG - Australian Vintage (formerly MGW) A Winemaker, Wine Marketing & Vineyard Management.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080827/pdf/31by4gqbs0dm63.pdf

Both are profitable companies (LWB pays 4.6cps divvie 30% franked) & AVG has had a masive turnaround over the last 12 months.

AVG has sold off $80m worth of unutilised assets/wineries to refocus.

I've always believed the Australian drought would eventually "weed out the financially weak" & bring the wine supply v demand back to normal, leading to better prices & margins.

I had thought this would occur mid-late 2009, but perhaps this may turn sooner than i realised?

Anyway, thought i'd share my thoughts :p

[winner69]

Lizard .... so it was you started the decline in commodity stocks with this thread ..... pretty quiet on that front at the moment eh

[Lizard]

Hi Winner. Haha, you know it was well underway when I started this thread - I was just a bit startled that, if anything, resource stocks were making up a higher proportion of posts than ever before. Still, most of the posts on this forum are still on resource stocks it appears.

Actually, there seemed so little interest in anything else that I thought it would be rude to spam the forum with the usual sort of results season rabbiting-on I'm prone to doing with non-resource stocks. There were some good results in there though, which have made for good trades - particularly on the NZX. But back to sitting on my hands again for now.

[h2so4]

I agree Liz but can anything stop the oil bulls stampeding on ST?

[Lizard]

The decline in resource and energy stocks has accelerated recently and the materials, mining and energy sector indices have underperformed pretty much every other sector since July/August. Best of the picks seems to be the healthcare sector as suggested by Footsie.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture.php?albumid=2&pictureid=62

[AMR]

Yes great call on that. A very poor performance by the oilers and miners lately, seems they've been going down with the index and down with the commodity.

Can anyone here plot "Large caps vs small caps vs microcaps"? I have a feeling that the microcap miners are pretty screwed, especially the ones without cash.

[winner69]

With that controversial call of yours ..... and a direct challenge to the resource junkies (many of who are unfortunately true believers) ...... you deserve to join the ranks of the great analysts who have moved markets .... the Cramer, Blodget and Meeker (even though were into tech stocks).

And didn't martha Stewart make a good call once?

Whatever it was a great call .... resource stocks down heaps since that post .... and still going down

Next challenge Lizard ...... whats the big thing for 2009 .... either things to stay out of or to get into

Cheers

[Lizard]

Hi Winner,
What will the weather be on 1st September? Too hard to pick! Calling resources down was like calling for a fine day in February. And calling it one week into a February drought. :o

I've lost my share of money and pride this downturn. So no gold stars for me. Best call I've made all year was to go back out to work where I had more chance of making money! :p

Where we go from here - the long term it's still not clear whether we're investing for a season of deflation or a season of inflation, so pretty hard to call anything for more than a few weeks out.

(The contrarian call might be Telco's and local manufacturers?)

The conundrum - your comment somewhere "bubbles don't usually follow bubbles" rings very true. But (scary thought) what does it really say about the state of the world if resources stay down here for long? Prices weren't entirely speculation, were they? More likely, resource prices stabilise and the less indebted companies get to clean up on good assets - perhaps using equity dilution in the process and trading sideways for a few years, while setting a base for the next cycle.

If a downturn bites hard enough, it is often the new blood companies bearing fresh capital that become the new darlings in an upturn. Beyond that, I'm trying to remember at some point that gearing will be good again and "highly geared" companies (though perhaps not by recent standards) will one day add some fizz to the portfolio.

[Aussie]

This may shock you . . . what asset class has closed higher every year since 2000?

2000 -- $273.60

2001 -- $279.00

2002 -- $348.20

2003 -- $416.10

2004 -- $438.40

2005 -- $518.90

2006 -- $638.00

2007 -- $838.00

2008 -- Currently over US$870 or just shy of a 325% gain since 2000


GOLD

[shasta]

This may shock you . . . year after year, what item has closed higher every year since 2000?

2000 -- $273.60

2001 -- $279.00

2002 -- $348.20

2003 -- $416.10

2004 -- $438.40

2005 -- $518.90

2006 -- $638.00

2007 -- $838.00

2008 -- ?


GOLD

It'll be north of $1000 when 2009 finishes too ;)

[Aussie]

It'll be north of $1000 when 2009 finishes too ;)

It's quite possible, I love your optimism shasta :D

[shasta]

It's quite possible, I love your optimism shasta :D

Hmm, i think Silver will outperfom Gold over the next 12 months too :D

[JBmurc]

Hmm, i think Silver will outperfom Gold over the next 12 months too :D

Yep for sure shasta my pick is Silver will overperform gold by quite a margin with gold making like AuSSie has shown futher highs

My future predictions :)

09-GOLD high 1400-1500 end 09 1200-1300
09-SILVER high 32-34 end 09 28-30

Longer term Silver should get back to at least a 20:1 ratio

so 2012 say GOLD -2000 Silver 100oz

[Aussie]

Gold up $25 this morning to $870 . . .

1110

[shasta]

Yep for sure shasta my pick is Silver will overperform gold by quite a margin with gold making like AuSSie has shown futher highs

My future predictions :)

09-GOLD high 1400-1500 end 09 1200-1300
09-SILVER high 32-34 end 09 28-30

Longer term Silver should get back to at least a 20:1 ratio

so 2012 say GOLD -2000 Silver 100oz

I hope your right, i'm not quite so bullish though.

I'm thinking Silver $20 - 25 & Gold $1000 - 1250 (A ratio of 50:1) at the end of 2009 with plenty of volatility in Silver, & less so in Gold which will have a slow & steady increase as the US Fed stops printing money!

[JBmurc]

I see they believe no theirs some 7 times more Gold above ground than silver atm
also the fact with alot of the base metal miners slowing down and shutting up shop 09 will yet again be a year where silver scrap makes up alot of the supply (how much longer will scrap make up the ton's of demand ??)

What if They Returned to the Gold Standard?
(They can't, but we can.)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, December 10th, 2008

What if the Government went back on a Gold Standard?

Do do that, they would need to use their gold to pay off all their debt.

That would give a price of gold if the U.S. Government backed the dollar with gold.

We only need to know two numbers, and do a simple problem of division.

First number: The national debt.
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

The government tells us this is:
$10,656,119,227,403

That's 10.6 trillion dollars.

Second number: The U.S. Gold stock.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/current.html

The government tells us this is:
261,498,899 ounces of gold

That's 261 million ounces of gold.

So $10,656,119,227,403 divided by 261,498,899 = $40,750/oz. of gold.

In theory, if the U.S. government had the restraint to stop issuing any kind of new debt, and if there was a runaway hyperinflation, the government could credibly stop any sort of runaway gold price by offering gold at a price of $40,750/oz.

That's the price that could cap the gold market if the U.S. government sold all their gold to all their bond holders. At that point, all new taxes would have to be levied in gold, not dollars.

It's important to realize that any effort by the government to sell gold below that price will ultimately fail, and will eventually cause the gold price to go even higher than that price, as that would only deplete their limited stock of gold at inappropriate price levels.

The main point is that T-Bills, which are perceived as the safest haven around, are not safe. They are only backed up by gold at a rate of $40,750 per oz. With gold trading today at around $800/oz., the U.S. gold backs less than 2% of the value of the issued bonds, or stated another way, $800 is 2% of the price of $40,750. Gold, at today's prices, is clearly a far superior safe haven.

And silver, which is in short supply, due to relentless industrial demand that has consumed nearly all world silver supplies, is even safer.

Clearly, the government cannot offer gold at $40,750 per oz. today. There would be no buyers. But, over time, the gold price may rise to such levels, and beyond, as a generation of people slowly wake up to the monetary fraud of the last 29 to 95 years, depending on whether you count from 1980 or 1913.

I am not an advocate of a return to a gold standard, where gold backs up paper money. I'm in favor of a return to using silver and gold coins and bars as money, as measured by weight, and traded at their intrinsic value according to the price in an open and free market place.



Sincerely,


Jason Hommel

[Hoop]

Hmm, i think Silver will outperfom Gold over the next 12 months too :D

Platinum !

[JBmurc]

Platinum !

Yeah platinum has also been well oversold I think holding any PGM's will pay off in the new year -
I do remember watching a guy on CNBC taking down Platinum on the back of the US auto-industry pain also not too sure if there's to much if any short-selling on Platinum unlike Silver which has a very large short-sold postion by only a couple US Gov backed interests

[Aussie]

2000 -- $273.60

2001 -- $279.00

2002 -- $348.20

2003 -- $416.10

2004 -- $438.40

2005 -- $518.90

2006 -- $638.00

2007 -- $838.00

2008 -- $882.80

GOLD

[Dr_Who]

Commodities had a short brief rally. Will it last?

Commodities dropped back down over night in new york.

[STRAT]

Might be time to re name this thread Liz :p


They seem to be back in with the in crowd

[Joshuatree]

UPDATE 1-BHP, world's largest miner, says 2017 is 'tipping point' for electric cars (https://hotcopper.com.au/resources/update-1-bhp-worlds-largest-miner-says-2017-is-tipping-point-for-electric-cars.86262/)

Copper especially and steel for the belt road.