View Full Version : China (SSEC)

23-08-2008, 10:24 AM
I have been tracking the SSEC to keep an eye out for an entry signal into AGF, the AMP China fund. It looks like MacDunk's "crash after the Olympics" theory might be having some credulance if the SSEC keeps falling like this.

What are the implications for oil and commodities?

Crypto Crude
24-08-2008, 12:46 PM
I look at it from completely a different view...
in many ways it can be argued that the market has already crashed...
in saying that, Downtrending and not crashing (which is what is happening) is great news for the spec market...
and the Shanghai Composite index falling as it has reduces risk of a crash...my fear is markets rising, as we will then truely have a crash... I will probably have to sell the whole portfolio if the DOW reaches 13200, as the downside pressure will then open up....

Markets falling (downtrending) will pressure oil and commodity prices to fall, but I guess the markets pulling prices down is weighed up against specific issues on that commodity/resource which could in turn pull them up...
I guess nobody really knows when Oil and Commodity prices will be above the recent high levels... all we can be sure of, is that it will eventually happen...

28-08-2008, 11:52 AM
I am waiting for a signal to buy the Shanghai Index. This is an opportunity.

28-08-2008, 12:39 PM
China now on a PE of 18. Much better than the 50 early last year.

Falls in Shanghai put valuations in focus

By Andrew Wood in Hong Kong
Published: August 25 2008 03:00 | Last updated: August 25 2008 03:00

The fall of 54 per cent in Shanghai share prices this year has taken valuations to much more attractive levels that compare with companies in the US, according to Jing Ulrich, head of China equities at JPMorgan in Hong Kong.
The Shanghai market was Asia's best performer last year, with the Composite index rising 141 per cent in an eight-month rally that peaked in October. The stock market became home to world's first company with a trillion-dollar value, the oil refiner PetroChina.
The optimism about the prospects for China's economy meant that Shanghai shares were last year trading at more than 50 times predicted annual profits on average. But speaking in a video interview for FT.com, Ms Ulrich said the plunge in mainland Chinese shares this year meant price-earnings ratios are now looking more realistic.
"If you look at the Shanghai traded shares, the p/e multiples are now on 18 times, similar to that in the US for the very first time," she said. "So some rational investors are beginning to see value emerging, but it will take a while for the market's confidence to be rebuilt."
In spite of the fall in the market, it is still common for the Shanghai share prices to trade much higher than the Hong Kong shares of the same companies as China's economy is not open enough to the outside world to allow arbitrage between the two markets. For example, China South Locomotive & Rolling Stock, the country's largest train maker, rose as much as 17 per cent as they made their debut in Hong Kong on Thursday.
The shares had begun trading in Shanghai last Monday and the dual-listing raised a total of $1.5bn.
But the Hong Kong debut was muted compared to China South Loco's 83 per cent jump during its first day of trading in Shanghai. The company closed its first day in Hong Kong at HK$2.63, a premium of just 1.2 per cent on the offer price. In Shanghai, it had closed 58.3 per cent higher at Rmb3.45 on its first day and are trading at about 50 per cent higher in value than the Hong Kong-listed shares.
But Ms Ulrich notes that the gap between the Shanghai "A" shares and Hong Kong "H" shares of dual-listed companies has narrowed considerably.
According to JPMorgan research, the weighted-average premium peaked at more than 200 per cent in January, and has since dropped to 18 per cent by mid-month.
The A-shares for several major listed companies, she says, such as Anhui Conch Cement, Bank of Communications, and China Life Insurance have even been trading recently at significant discounts to their H-share counterparts.