RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[ajs]

2013 to 2016 was a dud wasn't it mate, like a couple of blokes on here predicted :cool: I gave a nice big clear Beagle bark or two when it was $14 too but most chose to ignore that and thought I was a dumb dog.


Interestingly, no way would Winner have seen my post directly above his due to the time stamp and time taken to type up his post above and I can confirm to others we have not been comparing notes in recent weeks on this. We both felt three years or so ago that RYM would go nowhere for three years and both feel there's at least one more year of that to come. We've been right so far, lets see how we go for this coming year. Disc Hold SUM other much faster growing company of a current year underlying PE of only 14.2.

Same couple of guys that predicted this back in 2017
Ryman share price at the time $8.82 13 mths later $14.09

Just trying to bring some balance to the tea leaf reading :)

[Beagle]

You will always get periods of over exuberance. Fundamentally I have been saying for years now that there are better opportunities in this sector and over that period of time that I have made that call, RYM has underperformed. I still see it as very fully priced but who knows they might pull a rabbit out of the hat with their interim result...but I don't think so...real estate in Melbourne is not pretty. #3498 says it all as to how I see it, happy to leave it there and leave holders in peace.

[Arbroath]

Repost of previous table

There have been times when buying RYM has resulted in below average terms - each time is when RYMs PE multiple was very high. Expected because generally fpr stocks and markets buy when valuations are stretched (above average) expectured future returns will be below average

There have been periods of poor returns from RYM over periods up to 5 years ...but as Vaygor will attest to to long term (>5 years) have been very good - but note sometimes trhat can be 15% pa nd sometimes 30% pa depending on the starting point and whether RYM's starting PE is low or high.

RYM's PE (underlying profit trailing) has averaged about 20 this century ranging from below 10 to the high 30s. Its that change in PE that drives the change in returns rather than that consistent earnings growth

Alot of wisdom there winner. I'm up 35% in 15 months in RYM ignoring the small dividends. It's all about entry points for future returns and the fact is RYM is the sector leader and it has a long history of consistent performance so derseves a premium to the others in the sector. How much of a premium is the question to be debated imho. Happy holding as in 10 years this will be a bigger company paying bigger dividends with a bigger share price (barring a Depression). I also own the mutt Arvida which has far better yield and one day might show some growth!

[Vaygor1]

... OCA for its higher ..... yield.....


.... I also own the mutt Arvida which has far better yield and one day might show some growth!

The thing is with OCA and ARV (amongst others) is by very virtue of the fact they pay a higher yield relative to RYM in the present, they then have less capital to recycle into growth. I know OCA and ARV can get capital using other methods than a reduced dividend, but these methods come with their additional carrying costs.

Because of the above, OCA's and ARV's growth will be more suppressed than would otherwise be the case. As the year's tick by, OCA and ARV's percent yield will in relative terms to a present-day purchase be surpassed by RYM.

RYM's growth will in addition provide a far superior Capital Gain in the medium to long term as a result.

It's a classic case, from a shareholder's perspective, of "Do I want a good return now?..... or a great return later?"

Using one of my better real-life examples:

Purchased a parcel of RYM in Nov-2008 at $1.38/share
Pre-tax dividend payments by Jun-2019 for this parcel since buying it will total $1.40/share
ie. Time for the share to completely pay for itself by way of pre-tax dividends is 11.5 years
Average dividend yield over this timeframe is 100/11.5 = 8.7% per annum.
.... and the average yield for this parcel from here-on-in will only increase.

The PE equals the theoretical number of years for a share to pay for itself via its own earnings with the assumption of no growth or shrink.

As the above example's actual and real average yield (expressed like a PE... i.e. a PD Ratio - Price Dividend Ratio is 11.5, then what does that make the actual and real PE (ie the number of years for the share to pay for itself by way of its own earnings) for this parcel?

I'll let the reader do the maths. Hint the answer will be significantly less than 11.5

I am under no illusion my method of analysing the above will spark some debate.... and that is fine. :)

[percy]

A great pity more people on this site do not look past the next 6 days/ months or so.
Great post yet again Vaygor1.

[forest]

Thats also the way I look at it Vaygor. And Percy is right, going by writings on this forum one would think we in the minority. Maybe we just do not post as often as others.

[Joshuatree]

The difference is that some are trading and some are investing. Traders pay more tax and promote the stocks they've just bought and promote the stocks they are selling, they have shorterm timeframes and often similar integrity.
Investors buy /hold/add, if the stock maintains its premium quality status and performance. Its the sitting that grows ones wealth in stocks like this.

[Arbroath]

Percy / Forest

With all due respect you have no idea what my timeframe is. I own Ryman and agree with Vaygor's analysis and logic.
Arvida is an entirely different stock - more focussed on care than developement and pays a higher yield.
People often have different objectives with different investments like Argosy for relatively safe high yield versus Tourism Holdings for growth.
Just because someone owns something different to you or has a different time frame doesn't mean you need to be so judgy...

[Patient Panda]

The thing is with OCA and ARV (amongst others) is by very virtue of the fact they pay a higher yield relative to RYM in the present, they then have less capital to recycle into growth. I know OCA and ARV can get capital using other methods than a reduced dividend, but these methods come with their additional carrying costs.

Because of the above, OCA's and ARV's growth will be more suppressed than would otherwise be the case. As the year's tick by, OCA and ARV's percent yield will in relative terms to a present-day purchase be surpassed by RYM.

RYM's growth will in addition provide a far superior Capital Gain in the medium to long term as a result.

It's a classic case, from a shareholder's perspective, of "Do I want a good return now?..... or a great return later?"

Using one of my better real-life examples:

Purchased a parcel of RYM in Nov-2008 at $1.38/share
Pre-tax dividend payments by Jun-2019 for this parcel since buying it will total $1.40/share
ie. Time for the share to completely pay for itself by way of pre-tax dividends is 11.5 years
Average dividend yield over this timeframe is 100/11.5 = 8.7% per annum.
.... and the average yield for this parcel from here-on-in will only increase.

The PE equals the theoretical number of years for a share to pay for itself via its own earnings with the assumption of no growth or shrink.

As the above example's actual and real average yield (expressed like a PE... i.e. a PD Ratio - Price Dividend Ratio is 11.5, then what does that make the actual and real PE (ie the number of years for the share to pay for itself by way of its own earnings) for this parcel?

I'll let the reader do the maths. Hint the answer will be significantly less than 11.5

I am under no illusion my method of analysing the above will spark some debate.... and that is fine. :)

i do love your posts Vaygor.

Theres a reason RYM is more than 60% of my listed holdings :)

[Maverick]

Great write up Vaygor and well done you, I hope you held loads and now have a new boat. An excellent demonstration that hanging in with a good company is a winning strategy. Think RBD once $.59 cents, THL once $0.42 cents , Trademe, AIA and of course your RYM and SUM.

You clearly articulate how RYM have held back cash profits for growth and that has fueled compounding returns for you. The logic I see for OCA and ARV giving out half of their profits is to satisfy dividend investors (for old guys) while retaining some cash for their companies growth ambitions(for young guys).

As a huge fan of dividend stocks myself (it makes them easy to hold while the share price drops) I reckon I get the same compound effect buy simply reinvesting the dividends back into the same stock.

I`m not interested in doing any spreadsheets on it but my gut tells me the 2 methods to achieve the compounding growth from both styles are going to be reasonably similar. Particularly in the retirement sector with the "right to occupy" system creating loads of cash flow for growth.

And to restate, having a 4-5 % return allows me a solid sleep when there is plenty talk of bear markets et al.

[Beagle]

Your post is entirely historically focused Vaygor1 and while it might provide a good history lesson for SUM I have held RYM at times and done quite well out of it and left it alone at other times and done better SUM where else. Any quality growth stock bought about the time the GFC ended will have been a multi bagger, RYM better than most by a comfortable margin.

In recent years however as I have correctly called it for several years now it has underperformed as its relative value to the sector got stretched far too far and its relative value to the market was too stretched as well. It has underperformed the market as a whole and the sector over the last 4 years since Winner and I called it miles overvalued at ~ $8 4 years ago. This relative underperformance has come notwithstanding that real estate has been in a very strong uptrend so it will be very interesting to see how they go over the next 4-5 years with Melbourne in a strong downtrend and the Auckland market flatter than the Canterbury plains for the last 18 months and perhaps on the precipice of following Sydney and Melbourne down. Your $30 in five years look like a very fanciful price target to me, have you considered a career writing fantasy novels :p

I'm holding a really good sized stake in OCA (indefinitely just to annoy JT :p) but actually the real reason is to enjoy really hedonistic long term returns far superior to what I expect to see out of RYM in the next 5-10 years. As Maverick has commented, there is nothing stopping him, I or any other shareholder reinvesting those dividends if we choose to so your dividend argument doesn't hold water.

[Beagle]

Repost of previous table

There have been times when buying RYM has resulted in below average terms - each time is when RYMs PE multiple was very high. Expected because generally fpr stocks and markets buy when valuations are stretched (above average) expectured future returns will be below average

There have been periods of poor returns from RYM over periods up to 5 years ...but as Vaygor will attest to to long term (>5 years) have been very good - but note sometimes trhat can be 15% pa nd sometimes 30% pa depending on the starting point and whether RYM's starting PE is low or high.

RYM's PE (underlying profit trailing) has averaged about 20 this century ranging from below 10 to the high 30s. Its that change in PE that drives the change in returns rather than that consistent earnings growth

Great re-post mate and well worth noting that RYM's forward PE is currently well above its long term average of 20.

[Joshuatree]

Im holding OCA @ 79c average:) and our trust has held RYM average $2.30 and OCA av 79c. Wouldnt do it any other way . Nothing against trading as long as its disclosed .

[Patient Panda]

As a huge fan of dividend stocks myself (it makes them easy to hold while the share price drops) I reckon I get the same compound effect buy simply reinvesting the dividends back into the same stock.

I`m not interested in doing any spreadsheets on it but my gut tells me the 2 methods to achieve the compounding growth from both styles are going to be reasonably similar. Particularly in the retirement sector with the "right to occupy" system creating loads of cash flow for growth.

And to restate, having a 4-5 % return allows me a solid sleep when there is plenty talk of bear markets et al.


In an efficient world I think you’d be spot on but once you introduce the distortionary effects of taxation I think you will easily find non dividend paying companies with high rates of return such as RYM to be the most efficient creaters of wealth.

consider paying up to 33% tax on all dividends received before being able to reinvest them VS a company buying large amounts of property, paying no tax on the capital gain due to holding indefinitely while realising these gains through the sale of occupation rights. Furthermore enjoy the absence of CGT if you choose to sell ;)

[winner69]

Another solid result ...they just keep chugging on

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/327262/291091.pdf

And tj be careful with your comments as I’ll cut and paste them and use them when ARV report.

[trader_jackson]

Solid result... But still, NPAT (the most important indicator?) down - no worries NPAT probably waay down for ARV.

Underlying profit for sure will be at least 2x higher than that dog ARV (it needs to be)

[winner69]

Did you see the cute picture of Jacinda in the presentation ...well done Ryman

[Beagle]

My updated fair value is $9.91. DYOR...that's where I'm calling it and wouldn't pay a cent more.

[winner69]

My updated fair value is $9.91. DYOR...that's where I'm calling it and wouldn't pay a cent more.

Jeez that’s higher than $9.13 one broker has

Market liking the result ...share price up today ..and going back over 12 bucks

I reckon you will never ever hold RYM again

[couta1]

Jeez that’s higher than $9.13 one broker has

Market liking the result ...share price up today ..and going back over 12 bucks

I reckon you will never ever hold RYM again Overseas punters love the Quality of RYM, they will drive the SP.

[Patient Panda]

Solid result... But still, NPAT (the most important indicator?) down - no worries NPAT probably waay down for ARV.

Underlying profit for sure will be at least 2x higher than that dog ARV (it needs to be)

TJ IFRS NPAT only down because accounting standards dictate the melb villages will have had to have had their valuations updated and due to change in valuations over there it skews that figure. Cashflows are all up and RYM profits are always bigger in the 2nd half.

take a look at the other numbers 97% occupancy


Beagle I think your previous buy price you gave of $11.50 was much more astute

[Beagle]

TJ IFRS NPAT only down because accounting standards dictate the melb villages will have had to have had their valuations updated and due to change in valuations over there it skews that figure. Cashflows are all up and RYM profits are always bigger in the 2nd half.

take a look at the other numbers 97% occupancy


Beagle I think your previous buy price you gave of $11.50 was much more astute

Growth has slowed which has had a significant effect on my valuation as has my assumptions about future years growth expectations. Some people had been talking up FY19 as a huge year of growth but alas what we see with the mid point of the forecast is yet another sub 15% year of growth. (approx. 13%). Going forward in the medium term I expect that growth rate to tick down even lower as we wind down off the back of a decade plus of unusually high house price increases. I expect RYM to continue to materially underperform its peer group.

Yes Winner I think its unlikely I will be a shareholder again in the foreseeable future because if it does get down to my buy price it would be because of further deterioration in the fundamental's in which case I would have revised my fair value again. I have a strong preference for OCA's more needs based and defensive business model and their compelling metrics.

[winner69]

I see $21m of the $97m underlying profit came out of Australia

Truly amazing considering the relative sizes of the two businesses

[winner69]

Roger said
Going forward in the medium term I expect that growth rate to tick down even lower as we wind down off the back of a decade plus of unusually high house price increases.

Yep revaluation impacts are diminishing quite fast ....no longer double digit % gains every year

Have you sussed whether there’s a way of assessing how underlying profits might be impacted in 3 to 4 years ...it applies to all in the sector.

[winner69]

Looks like myRyman Care is going great guns

Ryman might become a tech company as well as a property developer.

Good stuff

[Beagle]

Yep revaluation impacts are diminishing quite fast ....no longer double digit % gains every year

Have you sussed whether there’s a way of assessing how underlying profits might be impacted in 3 to 4 years ...it applies to all in the sector.

A lot depends on their business model and churn rate.

[dabsman]

The property market is a cycle. If they add hundreds of units a year there will increased sales and care revenues. Then in time there will be increased resales and revaluations. Imagine they double their units in the next 10 years and then the property market doubles as it does every 10 years... not sure why all the property market talk is even given any airing - zero impact to my long term plans

[Beagle]

Just about down to $11 now, a whopping $3 below where I emphatically called it a SELL recently at $14. Don't forget those on here that were still calling it a strong buy at that level. Another $1 or $2 down from here and it might be worth another sniff.

[Joshuatree]

Good call for your personal strategy but many of us are not trading this top stock but investing longterm ($2.30 entry). The ups and downs are pretty irrelevant unless something really serious undermines the integrity and long term performance.

[Beagle]

Good call for your personal strategy but many of us are not trading this top stock but investing longterm ($2.30 entry). The ups and downs are pretty irrelevant unless something really serious undermines the integrity and long term performance.

A very long term sideways move in real estate, (it has happened before) would see real estate in real terms decline at the inflation rate. RYM's model of 20% DMF and approx. 7 year cycle in this environment would see them earning about 3% per annum on existing assets, less inflation, call it 1% net.

OCA on the other hand by way of comparison charge 10% DMF on their care suites per annum. Such a market would still see OCA doing well. We have the second most expensive real estate in the world on a per capita basis. Most people are interested in looking ahead 10 years and not really interested in the SP ten years ago.
How many times have you read the old investment company disclaimer that seems apt to repeat at this point "Past performance is no guarantee of future performance"
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/ea81ff05/nz-house-prices-could-follow-australia-s-down-asb.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20house%20prices%20could%20follow% 20Australias%20down%20ASB&utm_content=NZ%20house%20prices%20could%20follow%2 0Australias%20down%20ASB+CID_ba7ca47b396ebfaa8a662 eacfcc2e957&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticleea81ff05nz-house-prices-could-follow-australia-s-down-asbhtml Take care out there folks. A great business may not generate great returns if its already overpriced and future performance is already more than fully baked in.
Take a look at this national house price index contained in the latest REINZ report, see page 4 https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2018/Residential/October/REINZ%20Monthly%20HPI%20Report%20-%20October%202018.pdf
Notice how nationally house prices ostensibly moved sideways, (declined in real inflation adjusted terms), between 1996 - 2002 and 2008-2014 ?
Are we due for another 6 year period of declining house prices in real inflation adjusted terms ?

[Patient Panda]

I don’t recall anyone on here calling it a strong buy at $14. Fair distance between strong buy and happy to hold

[couta1]

RYM down 3.9% A2 down 3.1% who would have thought RYM would outdo A2 for volatility.Lol

[Vaygor1]

...I have held RYM at times and done quite well out of it and left it alone at other times and done better SUM where else....I hold SUM too (bought and never sold any), and they have not performed as all well for me compared to RYM... nowhere near it. But as you state, it all depends on when you bought.

In the OCA thread on 17-Nov-2018 you state "I also only own OCA in this sector..." This implies you have sold all your SUM. Is this the case?


…In recent years however as I have correctly called it for several years now it has underperformed as its relative value to the sector…You have called it incorrectly more times than correctly I believe. We have had 4 friendly wagers involving RYM to-date. I recall I am up 4-0 no? :)


…. Your $30 in five years look like a very fanciful price target to me, have you considered a career writing fantasy novelsI stated 5.5 years Beagle. That means June 2024, when RYM’s annual underlying profit will exceed $0.90/share. Using 16 years of historical data, a fair share price for RYM with this underlying profit is $32 … but I’ll stick with my $30.


... As Maverick has commented, there is nothing stopping him, I or any other shareholder reinvesting those dividends if we choose to so your dividend argument doesn't hold water.I applaud Maverick's comment. It is well considered and likely suits his style of investing than would my method. For me though, I get a greater amount of dividends to reinvest over the long term than the alternatives out there to-date, and my example to which you refer has me spending all mine on wine, women, and song. :eek2: ... I just have to wait longer for the rewards.


My updated fair value is $9.91. DYOR...that's where I'm calling it and wouldn't pay a cent more.
RYM's share price closed the other day at $11.03 This represents the best RYM buying opportunity in 9 years, and the 2nd best opportunity this century (refer graph below). If they drop further to $9.91 (which remains a possibility), I trust you will buy up large, because I will be. :D

When was the last time you held RYM Beagle.... 2010? I agree with Winner, and doubt you will ever hold them again.

10183

[Beagle]

I hold SUM too (bought and never sold any), and they have not performed as all well for me compared to RYM... nowhere near it. But as you state, it all depends on when you bought.

In the OCA thread on 17-Nov-2018 you state "I also only own OCA in this sector..." This implies you have sold all your SUM. Is this the case?

You have called it incorrectly more times than correctly I believe. We have had 4 friendly wagers involving RYM to-date. I recall I am up 4-0 no? :)

I stated 5.5 years Beagle. That means June 2024, when RYM’s annual underlying profit will exceed $0.90/share. Using 16 years of historical data, a fair share price for RYM with this underlying profit is $32 … but I’ll stick with my $30.

I applaud Maverick's comment. It is well considered and likely suits his style of investing than would my method. For me though, I get a greater amount of dividends to reinvest over the long term than the alternatives out there to-date, and my example to which you refer has me spending all mine on wine, women, and song. :eek2: ... I just have to wait longer for the rewards.


RYM's share price closed the other day at $11.03 This represents the best RYM buying opportunity in 9 years, and the 2nd best opportunity this century (refer graph below). If they drop further to $9.91 (which remains a possibility), I trust you will buy up large, because I will be. :D

When was the last time you held RYM Beagle.... 2010? I agree with Winner, and doubt you will ever hold them again.

10183
Not much time today mate but in brief

Sold all my SUM recently at just under $8.

Wagers...the past is exactly that.

5.5 years to $30, time will tell. PM I sent you explains my position in regard to market conditions.

I think you and Mav like your wine women and song :D

Sold out of RYM at just over $8 about 4 years or so ago. I don't feel like I've missed much since then, its underperformed the NZX50 since then, an inconvenient truth for you mate :p

Might own it again on my terms at my price. Always enjoy a good debate with you :)

[winner69]

Nice chart Vaygor.

[Joshuatree]

"Wagers...the past is exactly that." this one will keep me in mirth for a while.:t_up:

[stoploss]

Hi Team , would like to call upon the collective wisdom here .
I have 2 friends that are wanting to do the best by their mother .
Situation is she owns a unit currently but for various reasons this will be sold early next year . Likely to realise $ 300,000.
She feels she is not ready for a "retirement home independent unit " they feel she could be 5- 10 years away from that ( you never can tell )
Options she rents ?
They purchase an investment prop fit for purpose prob $ 500 K ish ?
This is where they need to know where to send her to get the right independent advice around this .They want to help but don't want her to feel she was pushed in any particular direction/ structure.
Lots of scenarios , she gifts them 250 K they cover the mortgage .
She keeps the money and she has 50 % equity in the house and the 2 have 25 % each .
Going to be lots of ways to do this ,so anyone who has done the same thing with any ideas I'd love to hear what worked .

[Beagle]

"Wagers...the past is exactly that." this one will keep me in mirth for a while.:t_up:

Whatever floats your boat lol

[Joshuatree]

Yeah like when one makes a wager its based on a future event .;)
Kudos to you Vaygor.

[Blue Skies]

Hi Team , would like to call upon the collective wisdom here .
I have 2 friends that are wanting to do the best by their mother .
Situation is she owns a unit currently but for various reasons this will be sold early next year . Likely to realise $ 300,000.
She feels she is not ready for a "retirement home independent unit " they feel she could be 5- 10 years away from that ( you never can tell )
Options she rents ?
They purchase an investment prop fit for purpose prob $ 500 K ish ?
This is where they need to know where to send her to get the right independent advice around this .They want to help but don't want her to feel she was pushed in any particular direction/ structure.
Lots of scenarios , she gifts them 250 K they cover the mortgage .
She keeps the money and she has 50 % equity in the house and the 2 have 25 % each .
Going to be lots of ways to do this ,so anyone who has done the same thing with any ideas I'd love to hear what worked .

Without knowing all the facts, a lot can happen in relationships in a period of 5-10 years. Best way of avoiding complications is for mum to buy another suitable unit (no stairs etc) for herself, & if she's on her own get her a St John's Life link alarm. i.e. an intermediate step.
It's her money, sounds like she is going to need it all, & getting her finances tangled up with children & their partners could leave her vulnerable at the most vulnerable time of her life.
Elderly people need to keep all their options open as things/health can change quickly & dramatically & therefore their needs.
Just mho.

[Jim]

I strongly agree

[Scrunch]

Hi Team , would like to call upon the collective wisdom here .
I have 2 friends that are wanting to do the best by their mother .
Situation is she owns a unit currently but for various reasons this will be sold early next year . Likely to realise $ 300,000.
She feels she is not ready for a "retirement home independent unit " they feel she could be 5- 10 years away from that ( you never can tell )
Options she rents ?
They purchase an investment prop fit for purpose prob $ 500 K ish ?
This is where they need to know where to send her to get the right independent advice around this .They want to help but don't want her to feel she was pushed in any particular direction/ structure.
Lots of scenarios , she gifts them 250 K they cover the mortgage .
She keeps the money and she has 50 % equity in the house and the 2 have 25 % ieach .
Going to be lots of ways to do this ,so anyone who has done the same thing with any ideas I'd love to hear what worked .

While it may get through the banks more easily, consider carefully other risks before going down the route of the kids buying a unit with a big deposit/mother loan. Its going to tie up part of their borrowing capacity in bank lending calculations and may be the difference between them being approved / rejected in other bank borrowing transactions they want to do in the future. A lot will however depend on their unstated financial situation.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/206303fc/ryman-healthcare-service-provider-or-property-play.html

[bull....]

nice to see most analysts have similar thinking to me in that retirement village operators are over valued

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/206303fc/ryman-healthcare-service-provider-or-property-play.html

[percy]

nice to see most analysts have similar thinking to me in that retirement village operators are over valued

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/206303fc/ryman-healthcare-service-provider-or-property-play.html

I have never known Craigs to be right on Ryman,ever.!'FNZC and Craig's preferred stock is MET,as it was 2 years ago..
.......................two years ago..........Yesterday..............Increase
MET .....................$5.25....................$5.3 3..................1.5%
RYM......................$8.30.................... ..$11.15...............34.33%
SUM.......................$4.60................... ..$6.18.................34.34%
OCA........................75cents................ .$1,12.................49.33%

[Joshuatree]

Craigs are underweight MET now ,RYM and OCA its picks. MET had been favoured on valuation appeal but hasn't performed for some time(think s/p did rise higher than the others in 2017 though) .Value trap it seems.

[BlackPeter]

Ryman just passed the Cross of Death.

Fun fact: During the GFC the Ryman share price dropped by 53% from its pre GFC heights ($2.61 in May 2007) down to its post GFC bottom ($1.22 in March 2009). If we get the same pattern again we might look at a $6 handle in early 2020.

Something to look forward to?

[winner69]

Ryman just passed the Cross of Death.

Fun fact: During the GFC the Ryman share price dropped by 53% from its pre GFC heights ($2.61 in May 2007) down to its post GFC bottom ($1.22 in March 2009). If we get the same pattern again we might look at a $6 handle in early 2020.

Something to look forward to?

If that happens wonder what OCA will be at ...70 cents something

[oldtech]

The RYM chart has been mimicking SUM very closely for the past three months ... or is it the other way around?

SUM crossed over a month ago.

[BlackPeter]

If that happens wonder what OCA will be at ...70 cents something

Anything is possible. But might still be a safer option for many punters to temporarily lose 50% on a good stock (and I refer here to RYM as well as to OCA) than to realise a 100% loss on cash during the next banking crisis. Just saying before everybody runs ...

And while we are in the spirit, this is probably an as good opportunity as any to wish everybody here a joyful Christmas and a Happy New Year. Just remember - money does not make happy, so who cares, what the markets will do ;);

I do enjoy (most of) the banter and looking forward to all your contributions in the New Year!

[winner69]

BP ..you seem pretty certain those with money in the bank are going to lose all their money

[BlackPeter]

BP ..you seem pretty certain those with money in the bank are going to lose all their money

That's not what I said.

However - losing your cash in a recession is clearly as well a risk which investors need to consider and manage (similar to the risks of a company rolling up their toenails), particualrly if we assume that the times get a bit rougher ...

Of interest: Most OECD countries offer government guarantees for bank savings. NZ does not - i.e. we will be each on our own if a bank crashes.

[BlackPeter]

If that happens wonder what OCA will be at ...70 cents something

Actually, on reflection I think that a direct comparison of OCA with RYM shares during the GFC is not quite appropriate.

The difference is - RYM pays a significantly lower dividend (and certainly did in 2007 to 2009) than OCA, which makes it more likely to tank during times when the markets re-rate growth.

OCA shares should behave more like a bond with tagged on growth potential ...

[Beagle]

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/35810 Melbourne real estate tanking...can't be easy for elderly folks to sell their homes for what they need to buy RYM's expensive units.

[percy]

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/35810 Melbourne real estate tanking...can't be easy for elderly folks to sell their homes for what they need to buy RYM's expensive units.

Not so as RYM Melbourne units are less than Melborne's average sale price,and most probably half in areas RYM have their villages.

[RupertBear]

Have to say I have been tempted to buy a few at this price....but I am trying to be patient :eek2: and not impulsive as I suspect it has further to fall...:confused:

In fact after reading other posts I dont think I should be buying anything....probably should be selling some..

[forest]

Not so as RYM Melbourne units are less than Melborne's average sale price,and most probably half in areas RYM have their villages.

I think so too, a bit of variation in realestate prices does not effect the profits of RYM. One has to have a good understanding of their business model to see that.

[percy]

I think so too, a bit of variation in realestate prices does not effect the profits of RYM. One has to have a good understanding of their business model to see that.

Agreed............................................ ...........

[couta1]

Have to say I have been tempted to buy a few at this price....but I am trying to be patient :eek2: and not impulsive as I suspect it has further to fall...:confused:

In fact after reading other posts I dont think I should be buying anything....probably should be selling some.. Go on be bold, I bought some at $10.72 , you know you can always average down. PS-Impulsive has its place young bear.

[forest]

Have to say I have been tempted to buy a few at this price....but I am trying to be patient :eek2: and not impulsive as I suspect it has further to fall...:confused:

In fact after reading other posts I dont think I should be buying anything....probably should be selling some..

RubertBear at todays closing price of $10.71 you are not likely go wrong. David Kerr, RYM Chair topped up his RYM share portfolio 2 months ago for $11.18
If he sees value over 11 dollars and you are not buying, I like to know why you think David Kerr made a mistake with his latest purchase?

[RupertBear]

Hmm ok thanks guys, might go shopping tomorrow then ;)

[RupertBear]

Go on be bold, I bought some at $10.72 , you know you can always average down. PS-Impulsive has its place young bear.

I think impulsive is part of my DNA couta, just need to dial it back occasionally! :cool:

[RupertBear]

RubertBear at todays closing price of $10.71 you are not likely go wrong. David Kerr, RYM Chair topped up his RYM share portfolio 2 months ago for $11.18
If he sees value over 11 dollars and you are not buying, I like to know why you think David Kerr made a mistake with his latest purchase?

Thanks for that forest, I did not know David Kerr had topped up at @ $11.18. I was just concerned about buying into a Bear market, but as couta pointed out I can always average down if it keeps going lower ;)

[iceman]

RubertBear at todays closing price of $10.71 you are not likely go wrong. David Kerr, RYM Chair topped up his RYM share portfolio 2 months ago for $11.18
If he sees value over 11 dollars and you are not buying, I like to know why you think David Kerr made a mistake with his latest purchase?

Agree forest that the Chairman knows the fundamentals of the business well and has given it a vote of confidence with his top up. However, I doubt he has any more understanding of where the market is heading right now than the rest of the investing community. While the market direction may not adversely affect Ryman's fundamental business to any large degree, it may affect the short term SP.
Personally I am not buying anything right at the moment.

[percy]

Agree forest that the Chairman knows the fundamentals of the business well and has given it a vote of confidence with his top up. However, I doubt he has any more understanding of where the market is heading right now than the rest of the investing community. While the market direction may not adversely affect Ryman's fundamental business to any large degree, it may affect the short term SP.
Personally I am not buying anything right at the moment.
Wise words...

[RupertBear]

Agree forest that the Chairman knows the fundamentals of the business well and has given it a vote of confidence with his top up. However, I doubt he has any more understanding of where the market is heading right now than the rest of the investing community. While the market direction may not adversely affect Ryman's fundamental business to any large degree, it may affect the short term SP.
Personally I am not buying anything right at the moment.

I have reverted back to thinking the same at the moment as well. Wait and watch ;)

[777]

And if nobody buys then the market has to go down until they all change their mind.

[BlackPeter]

And if nobody buys then the market has to go down until they all change their mind.

If (really) nobody buys than the market stays. SP can only drop if there are buyers on the way down.

It is bascially a game of chicken. Who chickens out (buys) early gets burned. Who chickens out (buys) late makes only a small gain. Only the ones who buy at the bottom make the mega bugs.

Trick is to recognise the bottom before everybody else does.

Would be interesting to simulate this using game theory.

[couta1]

[/B]
I have reverted back to thinking the same at the moment as well. Wait and watch ;) Waiting and watching is a useful stategy but can also be tedious and dead boring if carried on for too long. PS-I like to keep my snout moving around in the trough.

[RupertBear]

Waiting and watching is a useful stategy but can also be tedious and dead boring if carried on for too long. PS-I like to keep my snout moving around in the trough.

I waited and watched for 17 minutes before I bought some :D

[Leftfield]

If (really) nobody buys than the market stays. SP can only drop if there are buyers on the way down.
It is bascially a game of chicken. Who chickens out (buys) early gets burned. Who chickens out (buys) late makes only a small gain. Only the ones who buy at the bottom make the mega bugs.
Trick is to recognise the bottom before everybody else does.
Would be interesting to simulate this using game theory.

Added to that, IMHO Jan is the prone to low volumes, little news and bouts of possible SP manipulation. I tend to sit tight at this time of the year.

[forest]

Good move, in 5 years time share price is likely close to 20 dollars, even if it might dip below your buy price for some time.

[winner69]

Good move, in 5 years time share price is likely close to 20 dollars, even if it might dip below your buy price for some time.

Like it ...and SUM will be 10 bucks plus on that basis

[couta1]

I waited and watched for 17 minutes before I bought some :D Lol, that's more like it, sometimes your weakness can be your strength.

[Beagle]

Not so as RYM Melbourne units are less than Melborne's average sale price,and most probably half in areas RYM have their villages.

I doubt its half but if it is say 75% that's fine...provided of course the elderly incoming resident can sell and provided Melbourne real estate doesn't tank 20-25% over the next two years or so.
From a TA perspective this looks absolutely dreadful and this right here is reason enough to stay well away, (licence to lose lots of money), but for the heck of it lets have another look at the fundamental's.

RYM's forward PE is currently about 24...Is that cheap ?, absolutely NOT !...well above its very long term average of about 20. RYM is not priced for a bear market, not anywhere even remotely close. People with a long memory will recall RYM shares got absolutely pummelled in the GFC despite underlying profits growing every year. From memory it got down to a forward PE of 12 in the GFC so the downside risk appears to be about 50% even from here and even after dropping over $3 in recent months, (readers may recall that only one person adamantly called this a sell at $14 and you guessed it, it was me). If you want exposure to this growth sector I believe OCA is the place to be trading on a forward PE of well under half RYM with a more defensive late stage needs based business model and about three times the dividend yield.

RYM looks like a very, very bad place to be in a bear market in my opinion. Newbies looking to flock to a big name apparent safe haven place in turbulent times look set to get an expensive lesson in what is defensive sector investing and what isn't.

Take care folks. Just because something has come down about 25% from a grossly overpriced situation does not mean it is a good buy !

P.S. Did some historical price research. Between the end of May 2007 and the end of February 2009 in less than 2 years RYM more than halved going from $2.55 down to $1.24. Couldn't happen again....or could it ?

[forest]

I understand you Beagle that halving is possible, but the point I like to make that anybody who would have been unlucky enough in 2007 to have purchased at the top and hold on to their shares still would have quadrupled the value and gained dividends along the way.

[Joshuatree]

Yep imo this is a stock for the long term set and forget, unless you are a trader. This has been a long term foundation stock for our estate and we have done exceptionally well with the set and forget deck chair application/analogy Now wheres my sunblock 1000?:cool:.

[Beagle]

Well yes, I understand its been a great long term performer...actually not all that much better than the S&P 500 which has quadrupled since the GFC low but that background is against arguably the greatest and longest bull market in shares and houses in our lifetimes so there is no guarantee whatsoever that this will repeat again over the next 12 years. NZ real estate is second only as most expensive in the world on a per capita basis to Hong King and Australia isn't far behind. Its most likely to only go one way from here.

No reason for RYM's PE to be trading above its long term historical average of about 20...in fact I would argue it should presently be trading at no more than 75% of its historical average, (about 15 x forward earnings in the current market looks about right to me) which suggests fair - good value is about $7.

TA really sucks on this and fundamentally it still looks very, very expensive relative to the market and the sector and uniquely in this sector in N.Z. has significant exposure to the rapidly tanking Melbourne market. Only reason I post this is so that newbies like little bear understand the risks. Old timers like you and Vaygor1 among others are big enough and...to cop some losses on the chin and not be hurt.

[RupertBear]

Well yes, I understand its been a great long term performer...actually not all that much better than the S&P 500 which has quadrupled since the GFC low but that background is against arguably the greatest and longest bull market in shares and houses in our lifetimes so there is no guarantee whatsoever that this will repeat again over the next 12 years. NZ real estate is second only as most expensive in the world on a per capita basis to Hong King and Australia isn't far behind. Its most likely to only go one way from here.

No reason for RYM's PE to be trading above its long term historical average of about 20...in fact I would argue it should presently be trading at no more than 75% of its historical average, (about 15 x forward earnings in the current market looks about right to me) which suggests fair - good value is about $7.

TA really sucks on this and fundamentally it still looks very, very expensive relative to the market and the sector and uniquely in this sector in N.Z. has significant exposure to the rapidly tanking Melbourne market. Only reason I post this is so that newbies like little bear understand the risks. Old timers like you and Vaygor1 among others are big enough and...to cop some losses on the chin and not be hurt.

Thanks Mr Beagle.

This little Bear knew the TA really sucked and should have known better than to buy on a downtrend! :mellow: Luckily only bought a wee few ;)

[couta1]

Thanks Mr Beagle.

This little Bear knew the TA really sucked and should have known better than to buy on a downtrend! :mellow: Luckily only bought a wee few ;) Dont worry little bear, I'm sure I bought a couple more than you yesterday and I'm not in the least bit concerned.PS-This stock is loved by overseas investors and they can push the price up in short order so you will have no probs getting out with a wee profit should you so wish.

[couta1]

Did you sell for a wee profit on close at $10.89 little bear? you seemed awfully unsettled about your purchase.

[RupertBear]

Did you sell for a wee profit on close at $10.89 little bear? you seemed awfully unsettled about your purchase.

No I am much happier now Couta and plan on holding what I have long term :) I only got myself unsettled by changing my mind so many times :scared: Silly Bear. I will probably end up buying more if they keep going down but only if I think they are nearing the bottom and it looks like the trend is turning...well thats the plan...:D

[McGinty]

No I am much happier now Couta and plan on holding what I have long term :) I only got myself unsettled by changing my mind so many times :scared: Silly Bear. I will probably end up buying more if they keep going down but only if I think they are nearing the bottom and it looks like the trend is turning...well thats the plan...:D

I'll sum your plan up with this emoji :scared: (I've been reading this thread the last 2 days and can't hold it in anymore).

If you're unsure, either sell or do nothing. Never is averaging down in a bear market a "plan"!

[Joshuatree]

And never blindly follow anyone on here or anywhere else. Think about whose selling and who are you buying from, it could be a wolf zigging while you are zagging and vice versa , remember its your money they are after and retail investors are at the bottom of the heap, easy meat and most targeted. When it comes to the smell of filthy lucre any action gets justified.

[RupertBear]

I'll sum your plan up with this emoji :scared: (I've been reading this thread the last 2 days and can't hold it in anymore).

If you're unsure, either sell or do nothing. Never is averaging down in a bear market a "plan"!
Ok thank you McGinty, Another lesson learned for me, geepers I have been making a hash of things this year and its only 4 days old! Time for me to do nothing for a while as what I have been doing clearly isnt a good strategy in a bear market. I appreciate everyones patience and constructive comments ;)

[Lewylewylewy]

Averaging down isn't bad if you haven't got a large amount of funds

[BlackPeter]

Averaging down isn't bad if you haven't got a large amount of funds

You lost me. Care to explain what the amount of funds have to do with the benefits (or lack thereof) of averaging down?

[RupertBear]

You lost me. Care to explain what the amount of funds have to do with the benefits (or lack thereof) of averaging down?

Yes that confused me as well, but I confess that isnt that hard at the moment! :D

[macduffy]

It's easily explained. With a large amount of funds one can chase a down-trending stock until ………………….?

;)

[Beagle]

Could this sort of development be the start of a new trend ? https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2018/09/new-200k-leasehold-homes-in-tauranga-could-help-with-auckland-s-housing-crisis.html

[dobby41]

Could this sort of development be the start of a new trend ? https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2018/09/new-200k-leasehold-homes-in-tauranga-could-help-with-auckland-s-housing-crisis.html

Leasehold (with only 30 yr lease) - scary.

[peat]

Kiwis are very reluctant to own leasehold properties , there are a lot of horror stories out there and I saw my sister lose a chunk of money owning a dwelling on leasehold property , however with suitable lease agreements it is definitely one way of reducing housing costs and should be explored esp by the govt.
There's is no chance of a reverse mortgage I would think and some people live past 85 and will increasingly do so.
Cant take it with you though so reducing capital requirements to have a roof over your head is an option for those forced to make hard choices.

[Beagle]

Leasehold (with only 30 yr lease) - scary.

Why is it scary ? Suppose Joe Bloggs is 65 and fit and healthy and owns a $1m house in Auckland and nothing else.
Option 1. Buy a fancy Auckland RYM unit and be broke for the rest of his days. (Actually he can't do that for quite some time due to minimum age restrictions)
Option 2. Buy said leasehold unit and free-up $800K invested at say a 5% return in a balanced portfolio of shares and bonds and enjoy a comfortable retirement. Odds are he won't live past 95 anyway. Suppose he gets to 85 and needs better care. Sell Leasehold unit for somewhere about what he paid for it, and buy a care suite at OCA which on average on a national basis are just $227K.

Option 2 looks considerably better than option 1 to me as for one thing he can get on with enjoying his retirement now, not at some predetermined future date RYM decide to accept him, assuming they don't move the entry age goalposts again..

[dobby41]

Why is it scary ? Suppose Joe Bloggs is 65 and fit and healthy and owns a $1m house in Auckland and nothing else.
Option 1. Buy a fancy Auckland RYM unit and be broke for the rest of his days. (Actually he can't do that for quite some time due to minimum age restrictions)
Option 2. Buy said leasehold unit and free-up $800K invested at say a 5% return in a balanced portfolio of shares and bonds and enjoy a comfortable retirement. Odds are he won't live past 95 anyway. Suppose he gets to 85 and needs better care. Sell Leasehold unit for somewhere about what he paid for it, and buy a care suite at OCA which on average on a national basis are just $227K.

Option 2 looks considerably better than option 1 to me as for one thing he can get on with enjoying his retirement now, not at some predetermined future date RYM decide to accept him, assuming they don't move the entry age goalposts again..
For a start the model they used was for 55+ with the idea that at 85 they'd be gone.
If they aren't gone they have no lease.
I have no idea about the terms of the lease but the idea that they'd 'just take their house away' is fanciful at best.

[Beagle]

For a start the model they used was for 55+ with the idea that at 85 they'd be gone.
If they aren't gone they have no lease.
I have no idea about the terms of the lease but the idea that they'd 'just take their house away' is fanciful at best.

Their target demographic is 55 years and older
I'm not suggesting they take their house away, where did I say that ? I am suggesting they could probably sell their well maintained house on leasehold land and transfer their existing land lease to someone else, you know, like what happens with every other leasehold sale.

I am seeing a big increase in the number of people selling up Auckland properties to trade down to something far cheaper in the provinces as the only way for people who have nothing saved to enjoy a comfortable retirement. I expect this emerging trend to gather serious pace in the years ahead.

Fact is freeing up $800K in this example gives Joe Bloggs a comfortable retirement if he has no other means whereas moving into a typical fairly expensive Auckland RYM unit does not. There are significantly more people without a decent retirement nest egg than with one, in my professional opinion.

[dobby41]

I'm not suggesting they take their house away, where did I say that ? I am suggesting they could probably sell their well maintained house on leasehold land and transfer their existing land lease to someone else, you know, like what happens with every other leasehold sale.

The woman in the article suggested she'd just take the house away (I presume you looked at the whole item?).
Every other leasehold (or most commonly) have very long leases - much longer than 30 years.

I predict a lot of angst in the media in years to come.

[Beagle]

Yes I read it all a while ago, not recently. Depends how its constructed as to how easy it is to take away. More likely people will sell them and transfer the lease if their needs change I would have thought. Small homes can be transported right across Auckland for less than $10K.

[dobby41]

Yes I read it all a while ago, not recently. Depends how its constructed as to how easy it is to take away. More likely people will sell them and transfer the lease if their needs change I would have thought. Small homes can be transported right across Auckland for less than $10K.

I haven't seen the lease but it is for 30 years.
Maybe you can sign up for another lease after that but who knows - certainly the lessor would be in a very strong bargaining position at the end of the lease wouldn't they (get your house off my land or it's mine).

The places in the picture didn't look very small.

[Beagle]

We're off topic but I can tell you from first hand experience that these guys are very very good. https://www.fbr.co.nz/
My point is simply this. If RYM and others are limiting intake until both husband and wife are over 70 (keep in mind there's often a big difference in partners ages), they are leaving a gap in the market a mile wide for others to start offering other alternatives for anyone over 50 and I expect these alternatives that solve people's problems (lack of capital for investment in retirement years leading to radical downsizing of housing), to become extremely popular in the future as the vast majority of baby boomers retire with very limited funds and look to substantially downsize to free-up significant capital. An example of a company starting to meet this vast need is in this link https://papamoasands.co.nz/

Remember the vast majority of Auckland baby boomers have a $900K house and virtually nothing set aside for retirement. You think freeing up $700K might help make for a comfortable retirement ?

[dobby41]

We're off topic but I can tell you from first hand experience that these guys are very very good. https://www.fbr.co.nz/
My point is simply this. If RYM and others are limiting intake until both husband and wife are over 70 (keep in mind there's often a big difference in partners ages), they are leaving a gap in the market a mile wide for others to start offering other alternatives for anyone over 50 and I expect these alternatives that solve people's problems (lack of capital for investment in retirement years leading to radical downsizing of housing), to become extremely popular in the future as the vast majority of baby boomers retire with very limited funds and look to substantially downsize to free-up significant capital. An example of a company starting to meet this vast need is in this link https://papamoasands.co.nz/

Remember the vast majority of Auckland baby boomers have a $900K house and virtually nothing set aside for retirement. You think freeing up $700K might help make for a comfortable retirement ?
Oh there is a gap but it may not be one that RYM wants to fill.
If they accepted 55yr olds then it could be a long time before they can turn over the unit - better to leave something for other players with other models.
Like Freedom Lifestyle Villages that you show. They have a village being built in Cambridge. It works for them.

Sometimes, for a company, it is worthwhile leaving room for others (this is on-topic now).

I think other options will arise as this matures. Players will come in with profit share etc.
Again, may be better for RYM to leave that to others - the continuum of care model works well and is what has made them popular in Aus.

[macduffy]

I agree, dobby. Can't see RYM doing other than sticking to their knitting.

:)

[Zaphod]

RYM have accepted a friend of our family who is 56 into a unit due to the frail health condition of his wife. So it does happen.

[RupertBear]

Dont worry little bear, I'm sure I bought a couple more than you yesterday and I'm not in the least bit concerned.PS-This stock is loved by overseas investors and they can push the price up in short order so you will have no probs getting out with a wee profit should you so wish.

Nice little rise in price since then Couta :cool:

[RupertBear]

Geepers I spoke too soon! More volatile than ATM!

[Beagle]

Didn't you know little bear that RYM is an acronym for Rollercoaster your money. :D

[couta1]

Geepers I spoke too soon! More volatile than ATM! RYM has outdone A2 in terms of volatility for a while now, today 55c price spread for RYM and 19c for A2, traders stock aye.

[Vaygor1]

Actual pictures (not artistic representation) below.
Nice to see some progress here.
Would appear the major underground works including the car parking must be near completion.

10284


10285


10286

[Sideshow Bob]

They look like they've caught a few punters already!

[troyvdh]

I have to admit...I like many others viewed RYM like a train...many of us thought that in general residential house prices "should" have minimal influence on RYM and other retirement entites because folk still/will make the move when the time is ready...essentially because if your house drops in value from say 900k...to 800k...you can still afford a RYM place for say 300K to 500K...anyways that my thoughts...

Can one imagine what most NZ based kiwi funds are thinking

[Beagle]

One person on here had the courage to put their neck on the line and barked very clearly that $14 recently was silly stuff. I think its headed back under $8. Momentum a powerful thing and as we start to see house prices falling in Auckland the negative sentiment could very easily snowball.

[troyvdh]

Well done sir...was it an easy decision....

[couta1]

One person on here had the courage to put their neck on the line and barked very clearly that $14 recently was silly stuff. I think its headed back under $8. Momentum a powerful thing and as we start to see house prices falling in Auckland the negative sentiment could very easily snowball. Certainly is and those overseas RYM lovers can quickly turn the price around if they so wish(I reckon it's NZ based sellers driving it down at the moment) I reckon your barking up the wrong tree if your saying under $8 but if it did OCA would only be worth 80c and we wouldn't like that now would we.

[Beagle]

Certainly is and those overseas RYM lovers can quickly turn the price around if they so wish(I reckon it's NZ based sellers driving it down at the moment) I reckon your barking up the wrong tree if your saying under $8 but if it did OCA would only be worth 80c and we wouldn't like that now would we.

Might have to do a Couta then and bet the ranch :)

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12200033

Hang on to your hats folks, this looks like its getting ugly. The speed of the decline in Sydney and Melbourne is accelerating.
The medium price of a Melbourne house suggests people will struggle to sell them and afford a decent sized RYM unit and the top end of the market if falling the most.
Interesting times. Hope SUM other company is still not thinking of expanding over there.

[Patient Panda]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12200033

Hang on to your hats folks, this looks like its getting ugly. The speed of the decline in Sydney and Melbourne is accelerating.
The medium price of a Melbourne house suggests people will struggle to sell them and afford a decent sized RYM unit and the top end of the market if falling the most.
Interesting times. Hope SUM other company is still not thinking of expanding over there.

Great, looks like RYM will be able to pick up some more land at a discount for future developments :)

[troyvdh]

Patient Panda...thankyou...outstanding wisdom indeed.

[bull....]

property prices dropped again in jan in syd , mel looked forward to see how the aus village operators are handling this

[macduffy]

property prices dropped again in jan in syd , mel looked forward to see how the aus village operators are handling this

Yes, it's a good thing that RYM don't have any Sydney villages.

[Beagle]

Great, looks like RYM will be able to pick up some more land at a discount for future developments :)

Yeah, lets not worry that they overpaid for all their existing Melbourne land and have locked themselves into some very expensive developments...no worries.

[silu]

fwiw Aveo Group (AOG.ASX) has just announced their HY result and it's not pretty https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/aog.asx-2A1132236/
I think the headwind in the OZ property market is way stronger than over here so I have sold all my remaining RYM shares at $11 last week.

[bull....]

fwiw Aveo Group (AOG.ASX) has just announced their HY result and it's not pretty https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/aog.asx-2A1132236/
I think the headwind in the OZ property market is way stronger than over here so I have sold all my remaining RYM shares at $11 last week.

not pretty , key takeaway was this settlements are taking longer as people are having trouble selling there homes. just goes to show what would happen here if property fell over

[BlackPeter]

Absolutely. Better to invest in retirement places where people need to pay less to buy in and have less discretion over their decision (needs based vs nice to have).

People buy into a Ryman unit with the view "why not afford this luxury if they can"? However - if they can't (e.g. due to a drop in property prices, they can wait.

People who become dependant on care can't wait ... they would buy into an OCA care suite because they need the care - they don't have the luxury to wait.

[Beagle]

Absolutely. Better to invest in retirement places where people need to pay less to buy in and have less discretion over their decision (needs based vs nice to have).

People buy into a Ryman unit with the view "why not afford this luxury if they can"? However - if they can't (e.g. due to a drop in property prices, they can wait.

People who become dependant on care can't wait ... they would buy into an OCA care suite because they need the care - they don't have the luxury to wait.

^^^^ This.
Things are really ugly in Australia. The pace of declines in Melbourne and Sydney is accelerating as we headed into early 2019 with prices down 1.3% (annual rate 15.6%) in January 2019 much faster than monthly declines in late 2018. RYM a SELL in my view.

[Gerard]

At the half year result (to Sept 30) Ryman said house prices in Melbourne would have to fall 38% in the respective areas that Ryman is selling a 2 bedroom independant unit in, before a purchaser would not realize and surplus cash in the transaction. For a serviced unit (needs based) the drop would to be greater than 50%. (see Ryman presentation slide 38). In addition, RYM are sitting on a total $215m of unconditional pre sales but not yet booked to P & L. At this stage units built and for sale in Melbourne is a very small proportion of total stock. Auckland house prices are steady, and provincial NZ prices have gone up in the last year (Hawkes Bay for instance - see stuff article this morning). Ryman have experienced house price deflation (GFC) before and the net result was a slow down in the rate of their underlying profit increase to 5% (2009), but still a record result. At $14 Ryman's share price was I think well ahead of results. At <$11 share price, moderate house price deflation v increasing demand from a growing demographic, share price value is more debatable.

[Beagle]

Underlying PE at $11 is still in the early 20's which in my opinion is too high for their slowing underlying growth rate for this part of the housing cycle.
Forward PE of ~ 23 for RYM, ~ 15 for SUM ~14 for ARV or ~ 11 for OCA...you pays your money and takes your chances.
I've always been a value guy so will stick with what I know works for me.

[BlackPeter]

NZSA retail shareholders presentation at "the Papanui" in Christchurch: Ryman Healthcare is one of the presenters:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10332-NZSA-South-Island-Branch-meetings-amp-seminars&p=749287&viewfull=1#post749287

As per link - if you want to join the dinner after the presentations, please RSVP by March 8th.

[macduffy]

Ryman scaling back its proposed Mt Eliza village in Victoria.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12209893

It's a great location and will be a shame if it can't be properly utilised.

[dabsman]

Might be a stupid question but if Ryman see a significant amount of growth in Australia in the years ahead, why not dual list here and the ASX? Wouldnt that get more eyes on the company? I really don't know if the compliance cost is exorbitant and therefore prohibitive? I'd say making an NZ company more Australian would only help in the West island?

[macduffy]

Might be a stupid question but if Ryman see a significant amount of growth in Australia in the years ahead, why not dual list here and the ASX? Wouldnt that get more eyes on the company? I really don't know if the compliance cost is exorbitant and therefore prohibitive? I'd say making an NZ company more Australian would only help in the West island?

Retirement operators are a bit on the nose as investments in Oz these days. Best to stay off their boards for the present, I would think.

[whatsup]

Down 3.8% today, retirement sector unloved atm with more to come with this winters "winter of discontent " !!

[couta1]

Down 3.8% today, retirement sector unloved atm with more to come with this winters "winter of discontent " !! RYM should be below $11 which is where it is heading I reckon.

[bull....]

looks like the smart money was buying ryman before the CGT announcement

[BlackPeter]

Looks like the green line (MA 50) happened to move for a week in perfect harmony with the red line (MA200) but is now rising above it.

Golden cross time - must be all nice and fluffy from here - we are in a well confirmed uptrend ... :)

[winner69]

FI think last guidance they gave was — Full year underlying profit expected to be between $223 million and $238 million (between +10% and +17%)

If all the chat on other threads is true they’ll just sneak in with a $224m number ....just over 10% up on last year.

But that chat might just be chat and they do $240m

Pretty good

[Beagle]

I think last guidance they gave was — Full year underlying profit expected to be between $223 million and $238 million (between +10% and +17%)

If all the chat on other threads is true they’ll just sneak in with a $224m number ....just over 10% up on last year.

Pretty good

If so that would put them on a FY19 PE of 26.8...Hmmm.

[winner69]

If so that would put them on a FY19 PE of 26.8...Hmmm.

Seems about right for a globally recognised stock in this sector

[Patient Panda]

I think last guidance they gave was — Full year underlying profit expected to be between $223 million and $238 million (between +10% and +17%)

If all the chat on other threads is true they’ll just sneak in with a $224m number ....just over 10% up on last year.

Pretty good

10% underlying growth wouldn’t be a great look for Gordy especially after the phenomenal performance from Simon. Having met Gordy I thought he was very open and capable. Obviously they’re dealing with a larger capital base etc.. which adds a challenge but if it does come in at bottom end of guidance it’ll raise a few questions.

[Beagle]

Seems about right for a globally recognised stock in this sector

SUM day sum other stock might be more widely recognised. I have no appetite for stocks already priced for absolute perfection...what if the results aren't perfect ?

[Leftfield]

Looks like the green line (MA 50) happened to move for a week in perfect harmony with the red line (MA200) but is now rising above it. Golden cross time - must be all nice and fluffy from here - we are in a well confirmed uptrend ... :)

RYM and OCA in synch according to this...

10520

[winner69]

RYM and OCA in synch according to this...

10520

Spooky eh ......l

[winner69]

10% underlying growth wouldn’t be a great look for Gordy especially after the phenomenal performance from Simon. Having met Gordy I thought he was very open and capable. Obviously they’re dealing with a larger capital base etc.. which adds a challenge but if it does come in at bottom end of guidance it’ll raise a few questions.

Yes Gordy needs to keep going with what Simon left him ...might be a big challenge though.

[Scrunch]

Spooky eh ......l

Not really - just another variant of SUM other 50%ish rule but for OCA its a 9-10% rule (and not quite as much history)

[Beagle]

RYM and OCA in synch according to this...

10520

That's quite remarkable.


Yes Gordy needs to keep going with what Simon left him ...might be a big challenge though.

Simon...a true legend...I wouldn't want to try and fill his shoes...Gordy has it all ahead of him...on the other hand I think its fair to say Julian didn't have much trouble taking up where Norah left off :)

SUM / RYM pretty closely correlated too until just recently which kind of makes me wonder, (speaking of shoes), if the slow sales thing means RYM is the next shoe to drop ?

10521 RYM in yellow.

[couta1]

Looking at the price action leading up to the result on the 24th I'd say the market is expecting a very average one, mind you SUM other companies have also been very average for a while now haven't they.

[winner69]

Share price back to 12 bucks

That’s good

Gives sum hope that SUM might get up 6 bucks ....

.......or if RYM result not that good it’s share price will revert to $11.20 ...or even lower if SUM goes down as a result of a por RYM result

That’s not too good

[winner69]

Very solid set of numbers

Jeez they should like Hallensteins with their ‘very challenging market conditions’ statement but heck they don’t seem to be having trouble selling units unlike sum others

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/334964/300403.pdf

[trader_jackson]

Very solid set of numbers

Jeez they should like Hallensteins with their ‘very challenging market conditions’ statement but heck they don’t seem to be having trouble selling units unlike sum others

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/334964/300403.pdf

Yea but NPAT down winner, didn't you say this is the number that counts?
That number that counts down 16% or something...
But yes, I agree it is pretty good

[winner69]

Yea but NPAT down winner, didn't you say this is the number that counts?
That number that counts down 16% or something...
But yes, I agree it is pretty good

NPAT being down happening to all sector participants as revaluation gains aren’t what they used to be.

That $326m a big number though t_j

Ps ..if I remember rightly OCA NPAT for H1 was down 97%. Wonder what Arvida result will look like?

[trader_jackson]

NPAT being down happening to all sector participants as revaluation gains aren’t what they used to be.

That $326m a big number though t_j

Gearing creeping up, but margin is great... amazing how sum companies say they are struggling with margins, while others are excelling
That dog (you know the one) is reporting Tuesday next week... they must be doing worse than RYM so I'll be expecting a -20% or more drop in NPAT

[Biscuit]

NPAT being down happening to all sector participants as revaluation gains aren’t what they used to be.




They say it is due to changes in the revaluation assumptions made in 2018.

[winner69]

Gearing creeping up, but margin is great... amazing how sum companies say they are struggling with margins, while others are excelling
That dog (you know the one) is reporting Tuesday next week... they must be doing worse than RYM so I'll be expecting a -20% or more drop in NPAT

The mystery shoppers will get SUM back on track methinks

[couta1]

Still the big dog on the porch by a country mile and to think SUM others reckon SUM should or will have the same share price. The Couta theorum says it will never happen and I believe him. Lol

[winner69]

Still the big dog on the porch by a country mile and to think SUM others reckon SUM should or will have the same share price. The Couta theorum says it will never happen and I believe him. Lol

It’s more than a rule of thumb eh Couts ....it’s set in concrete ...no matter what spreadsheets say or what some think is rationale.

[couta1]

It’s more than a rule of thumb eh Couts ....it’s set in concrete ...no matter what spreadsheets say or what some think is rationale. Yep a monster freight train carries huge momentum and takes a lot more to stop than a commuter train.

[winner69]

One thing apparent from rym and other's reports it seems to be getting harder and harder to make a buck out of actrually looking after people .... as opposed to buidlding things

[BlackPeter]

One thing apparent from rym and other's reports it seems to be getting harder and harder to make a buck out of actrually looking after people .... as opposed to buidlding things

Wonder whether this has anything to do with huge pay rises in teh care sector? But than - if care homes can't afford anymore to pay their staff, than I am sure the gummit will chip in. Maybe Winston being the first to volunteer in a nursing home - he loves to be the first!

On the other hand - profits for the big retirement villages still look quite healthy. Rymans made nearly $20k pa underlying profit for each resident (i.e. excluding revaluation gains). I suppose we don't need to send the hat around - yet ;);

[couta1]

One thing apparent from rym and other's reports it seems to be getting harder and harder to make a buck out of actrually looking after people .... as opposed to buidlding things Yep since the pay equity settlement things have got much tougher and the likes of OCA need to sharpen their pencil in terms of wages to revenue ratios otherwise profits will be further eroded. PS-If homes cant afford to pay their staff they go under as many have over the last couple of years.

[winner69]

Wonder whether this has anything to do with huge pay rises in teh care sector? But than - if care homes can't afford anymore to pay their staff, than I am sure the gummit will chip in. Maybe Winston being the first to volunteer in a nursing home - he loves to be the first!

On the other hand - profits for the big retirement villages still look quite healthy. Rymans made nearly $20k pa underlying profit for each resident (i.e. excluding revaluation gains). I suppose we don't need to send the hat around - yet ;);

That $20k underlying profit for each resident ...have you done the same sum for SUM and the others?

PS — underlying profit $227m less realised gains $190m is $37m ...divided by 11,300 residents is $3,275 per resident in my books ...or is it a RYM produced metric

[BlackPeter]

That $20k underlying profit for each resident ...have you done the same sum for SUM and the others?

PS — underlying profit $227m less realised gains $190m is $37m ...divided by 11,300 residents is $3,275 per resident in my books ...or is it a RYM produced metric

Why would you deduct the realised gains from the underlying profit to calculate the underlying profit (as stated by Ryman) per resident? The "realised gain" (cash in the pocket) is clearly different from the "revaluation gain" which is (at this stage) just paper profit.

$227m divided by 11500 residents equals $19.7 k p.a.; Cool;

And no - no point in comparing underlying profits for various companies ... I do this however from time to time with GAAP profit.

SUM made last year a cool $42k per resident and year, while RYM would have made $28k (now including the unrealised revaluation gains) per resident in the last FY.

Ah yes - and OCA (oldest numbers, though) made last financial year $22k NPAT per resident. Makes sense, given that their property growth engine is still in development.

Obviously - they all use different reporting periods, i.e. never completely comparable.

[winner69]

Why would you deduct the realised gains from the underlying profit to calculate the underlying profit (as stated by Ryman) per resident? The "realised gain" (cash in the pocket) is clearly different from the "revaluation gain" which is (at this stage) just paper profit.

$227m divided by 11500 residents equals $19.7 k p.a.; Cool;

And no - no point in comparing underlying profits for various companies ... I do this however from time to time with GAAP profit.

SUM made last year a cool $42k per resident and year, while RYM would have made $28k (now including the unrealised revaluation gains) per resident in the last FY.

Ah yes - and OCA (oldest numbers, though) made last financial year $22k NPAT per resident. Makes sense, given that their property growth engine is still in development.

Obviously - they all use different reporting periods, i.e. never completely comparable.

Sorry mate — I misunderstood your original post which said ‘underlying profit (exc revaluation gains)’

I thought that might be a proxy for how much they make for caring and looking after people....ie take off the property gains and you sort of left with a form of operating profit.

I must learn to read more carefully

[winner69]

Ryman sold 45 less occupation rights than pcp but still made heaps more underlying profit ...that’s good

Question - OCA had heaps more sales in H119 than pcp but hardly increased underlying profit ...hmmmm

[BlackPeter]

Ryman sold 45 less occupation rights but still made heaps more underlying profit ...that’s good

Question - OCA had heaps more sales in H119 but hardly increased bderlying profit ...hmmmm

Might make more sense to compare full years with each other ...

[hereweare]

Relatively new to this share trading game... but looking at RYM lately, is there anything I’m missing out on ? They put out good news last week, yet their share price is still dropping, again... is there something I’ve missed ?

[couta1]

Relatively new to this share trading game... but looking at RYM lately, is there anything I’m missing out on ? They put out good news last week, yet their share price is still dropping, again... is there something I’ve missed ? Welcome to the " Conglomeration of Chaos" (Borrowed from Baa Baa)

[trader_jackson]

Relatively new to this share trading game... but looking at RYM lately, is there anything I’m missing out on ? They put out good news last week, yet their share price is still dropping, again... is there something I’ve missed ?

Mr Market clearly expecting more than Mr RYM produced, must be the case as sum other share prices haven't moved much down (or up) since Friday morning...
I am worried for ARV now as they have to do worse than RYM, and if RYM weren't good enough, then that ol' dog surely can't be

[winner69]

Welcome to the " Conglomeration of Chaos" (Borrowed from Baa Baa)

And even in this “Conglomeration of Chaos” the Couta Theorem holds firm

Almost as strong as Einstein’s “Law of Relativity”




RYM might drift down to $11.20 something based on that

[Beagle]

Mr Market clearly expecting more than Mr RYM produced, must be the case as sum other share prices haven't moved much down (or up) since Friday morning...
I am worried for ARV now as they have to do worse than RYM, and if RYM weren't good enough, then that ol' dog surely can't be
You can only get away with sub-par growth for so long...no matter who you are.

[trader_jackson]

You can only get away with sub-par growth for so long...no matter who you are.

True true, equally, you can only get away with producing above par growth, but still labeled a dog for so long...
I find it funny some thought sum listed operators were cheap, but really they were fair value (at best) and RYM was the expensive one...

[winner69]

I find it funny some thought sum listed operators were cheap, but really they were fair value (at best) and RYM was the expensive one...

Nice to see you are finally catching on ....no dogs, all mostly fairly valued .....but Ryman is the expensive one (outlier) for a lot of good reasons.

[Beagle]

True true, equally, you can only get away with producing above par growth, but still labeled a dog for so long...
I find it funny some thought sum listed operators were cheap, but really they were fair value (at best) and RYM was the expensive one...

SUM are very "cheep"... like a Budgie :p

[couta1]

And even in this “Conglomeration of Chaos” the Couta Theorem holds firm

Almost as strong as Einstein’s “Law of Relativity”




RYM might drift down to $11.20 something based on that Einstein so far ahead of his time ,a few years ago a group of new whizz physicists thought they had proven Einstein wrong on his speed of light calculations and that it wasn't constant, well they were wrong and Einstein is still right. PS-A bit like SUM others trying to prove the Couta Theorum wrong aye winner, they are still wrong.

[macduffy]

And even in this “Conglomeration of Chaos” the Couta Theorem holds firm

Almost as strong as Einstein’s “Law of Relativity”




RYM might drift down to $11.20 something based on that

Not an example of a "stopped clock" situation, is it?

;)

[Beagle]

Einstein so far ahead of his time ,a few years ago a group of new whizz physicists thought they had proven Einstein wrong on his speed of light calculations and that it wasn't constant, well they were wrong and Einstein is still right. PS-A bit like SUM others trying to prove the Couta Theorum wrong aye winner, they are still wrong.
Its been done to death already mate...not nearly enough said about the Couta1 theorem stating Turners should be $3.80...strange how for some funny reason you're really quiet on that one :p

[winner69]

Its been done to death already mate...not nearly enough said about the Couta1 theorem stating Turners should be $3.80...strange how for some funny reason you're really quiet on that one :p

Big difference between a theorem (SUM) and a ‘hope’ that Turners will be $3.80 one day (that’s all he said)

The day SUM IPO’d its price was about 50% of RYM ....now a bit less ......spooky eh

[winner69]

Einstein so far ahead of his time ,a few years ago a group of new whizz physicists thought they had proven Einstein wrong on his speed of light calculations and that it wasn't constant, well they were wrong and Einstein is still right. PS-A bit like SUM others trying to prove the Couta Theorum wrong aye winner, they are still wrong.

If Einstein was alive today he possibly would be saying I told you so.

Einstein later came up with a law of general relativity, in ithe determined that massive objects (RYM for example) cause a distortion in space-time, which is felt as gravity.

Newton would have described this ‘gravity’ as a force tugging between two bodies and depends on how massive each one is and how far apart the two lie. Just like how your feet remain on earth the more massive body (RYM) the much smaller mass (SUM) will find itself firmly rooted thanks. Whether it’s special relativity or general relativity or Couta’s relativity it’s all explained in physics ( and nature)

[couta1]

Its been done to death already mate...not nearly enough said about the Couta1 theorem stating Turners should be $3.80...strange how for some funny reason you're really quiet on that one :p Lol that one was just a bit of fun no serious mathematics involved but I'm sure Percy would argue with you on that one.

[Beagle]

Lol that one was just a bit of fun no serious mathematics involved but I'm sure Percy would argue with you on that one.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[Scrunch]

Still the big dog on the porch by a country mile and to think SUM others reckon SUM should or will have the same share price. The Couta theorum says it will never happen and I believe him. Lol

At 40-60% the Couta theorum allows around +/-20% movement from the 50% mid-point.

To see how long a variant of the Couta theorum can hold you need to look no further than ANZ vs Westpac. Over the last 10 years Westpac has remained an average of about 6% above ANZ. A few times ANZ has managed to exceed Westpac but never by much or for long. Westpac has also rarely managed to get beyond 110% of ANZ's price. WBC did get above 110% during the GFC and late 2015/2016 but both times it was back under 110% within about a year. A revised version of the Couta theorum has held strong as ANZ has gone as low as NZ$15 and WBC has gone over NZ$40.

[dabsman]

At 40-60% the Couta theorum allows around +/-20% movement from the 50% mid-point.

To see how long a variant of the Couta theorum can hold you need to look no further than ANZ vs Westpac. Over the last 10 years Westpac has remained an average of about 6% above ANZ. A few times ANZ has managed to exceed Westpac but never by much or for long. Westpac has also rarely managed to get beyond 110% of ANZ's price. WBC did get above 110% during the GFC and late 2015/2016 but both times it was back under 110% within about a year. A revised version of the Couta theorum has held strong as ANZ has gone as low as NZ$15 and WBC has gone over NZ$40.

And all the difference is between them is the dividend. If you removed the extra 14c per dividend off WBC they would be like peas in a pod - a big ugly Australian pod of lies and deceit but a pod none the less...

[Baa_Baa]

I thought I better check the data for myself. Unless I've screwed up, this Couta theorem does fluctuate within a fairly generous range, basically a 33% swing range, if you take SUM from listing it's 33% low (% of RYM SP) upto 66% high (weekly closing price - [Yahoo data which may be dubious]). These are adjusted SP, but basically same as measuring straight SP as all pay nice dividends.

That's a lot of wiggle room for SUM, 33% swing range. Interesting though, current trend for SUM is definitely down from the peak 66% to now (last week) 47% and looking bleak with RYM's SP divergence upwards presently. Look at MET, like a downhill ski slope with a death jump! and OCA fairly constant around 10% since listing. OCA looks like the sleeper as it's fluctuations are benign.

The other chart shows RYM vs SUM, vs MET, vs OCA closing weekly price. Clearly RYM is smashing the others lately, diverging upwards as the others' sails deflate, except maybe OCA flatlining.

So is the theorem worth it's cudos bestowed here? I dunno, just a curious exercise maybe. With so much wiggle room, and a solid sector where all companies are successful, SUM's SP seems unlikely to plunge below 33% of RYM or soar above 66% of RYM, so it seems the theorem may be a self fulfilling prophecy conjured by myth into some semblance of normality or reality by virtue of perpetual repetition, hence making it so.

[couta1]

The crux of my original theorum was that SUM is only basically worth half of the RYM share price and that it would seek to revert to around that value which removing the upper and lower limits that is indeed where it is and has been most of the time over the last few years. PS-The biggest myth of all is that SUM should/will equal the RYM share price.

[Lewylewylewy]

I found some interesting information today. I was taking to a tradie that works a lot on rym developments. He was telling me how poorly they make the plumbing, so it's cheap and only designed to last a short while, by the time it fails it's the punters responsibility to fix.

[couta1]

I found some interesting information today. I was taking to a tradie that works a lot on rym developments. He was telling me how poorly they make the plumbing, so it's cheap and only designed to last a short while, by the time it fails it's the punters responsibility to fix. Lol what about all the plumbing in the care centre sections, always Rymans responsibility.

[Lewylewylewy]

Idk, i didn't ask for too many specifics. I don't know how much he knows about the pay structure and whos responsibility things are. Also, I don't know how bad the plumbing actually is; he may just be a perfectionist? It did sound dodgy plumbing though, even to this layman.

[Baa_Baa]

The crux of my original theorum was that SUM is only basically worth half of the RYM share price and that it would seek to revert to around that value which removing the upper and lower limits that is indeed where it is and has been most of the time over the last few years. PS-The biggest myth of all is that SUM should/will equal the RYM share price.

Interesting, attention to detail. If we plot SUM's average price since listing over all weekly closing price data points against RYM's SP at the weekly close, the spread is identical, at 33% (top 66%, bottom 33%) currently at 47% but the trendline is steadily increasing suggesting SUM's SP performance over time vs RYM has improved and the theorem should be updated to a reversion to about 56% of RYM?

Still, it's a lot of wiggle room at 33% swing range, one could almost bet the bank on SUM not exceeding or going lower that that price range. The recent % plunge of SUM vs RYM average is quite dramatic but still only 47% of RYM, maybe quality is shining through sentiment and we're seeing where the money currently prefers to place its bets (on RYM), even though SUM is below the Couts theorem and the revised theorem (postulated) at 56%?

10563

[Beagle]

Interesting, attention to detail. If we plot SUM's average price since listing over all weekly closing price data points against RYM's SP at the weekly close, the spread is identical, at 33% (top 66%, bottom 33%) currently at 47% but the trendline is steadily increasing suggesting SUM's SP performance over time vs RYM has improved and the theorem should be updated to a reversion to about 56% of RYM?

Still, it's a lot of wiggle room at 33% swing range, one could almost bet the bank on SUM not exceeding or going lower that that price range. The recent % plunge of SUM vs RYM average is quite dramatic but still only 47% of RYM, maybe quality is shining through sentiment and we're seeing where the money currently prefers to place its bets (on RYM), even though SUM is below the Couts theorem and the revised theorem (postulated) at 56%?

10563

Good work. 56% of $11.46 = $6.42 but I am sure Coutts will see it differently lol.

[couta1]

SUM closed at 48.69% so pretty close to half value aye but your proposed revised 56% theorum will have Beagle barking with joy and on that note it's good night from me.

[winner69]

Good work. 56% of $11.46 = $6.42 but I am sure Coutts will see it differently lol.

Living in hope again are we beagle

Baabaa for some reason best known to himself used dividend adjusted prices to get his 56%

On monthly actual closing prices the average is just over 50%

So when RYM drops to 11.20 this week it will be. All in equilibrium again.

[couta1]

Living in hope again are we beagle

Baabaa for some reason best known to himself used dividend adjusted prices to get his 56%

On monthly actual closing prices the average is just over 50%

So when RYM drops to 11.20 this week it will be. All in equilibrium again. Nice spotting winner, I was too tired last night to pick that up so the original Couta Theorum remains true as it has forever and a day, Beagle will have to head back into the kennel for another long while.

[winner69]

As Couta’s Chief Science Advisor time to clarify what the Couta Theorem is. Actually it has now evolved into a LAW — Couta’s Law of Relativity

Couta’s Law of Relativity states that the SUM share price will always revert to 50% of the RYM share price

The 50% being the long term average since the SUM IPO

Note it doesn’t say it will be 50% all the time but during the ups and downs of the market the forces of nature will ensure it always will revert to 50%

As it did when RYM was trading at what seemed ridiculous multiples in 2014 and 2017 - Nature said things have got out of kilter so the forces of Nature ensured the relativity reverted back to 50%

And then SUM was hyped and ramped up to that ridiculously $8 level - Nature said things have got out kilter so the forces of Nature ensured the relativity reverted back to 50%

It’s all about that time reversion to the mean

Ignore the forces of Nature at your peril

Updated chart ...on monthly closing prices

[BlackPeter]

I found some interesting information today. I was taking to a tradie that works a lot on rym developments. He was telling me how poorly they make the plumbing, so it's cheap and only designed to last a short while, by the time it fails it's the punters responsibility to fix.

I would take that statement with a grain of salt. In any retirement village (not just Rymans) it is the responsibility of the village provider to fix any building maintenance issues - no matter whether we talk about the independent living "villas" or the care units. Would not make any sense for them to get low quality plumbing - they would need to pay for all follow up cost (which could be substantial). No cost to the occupier (this is all covered by the DMF).

Been last week through a Rymans village - and while I obviously didn't open the walls to check the plumbing ... what one can see looks clearly upmarket.

[winner69]

Baabaa has clarified with me why he got 56% average and I got 50% - baabaa has used a trend line number v my simple long term average.

Yes, on baabaa’s basis the % is increasing over time (that is the sum as % of RYM)

Extrapolating the trend line and assuming that the trend remains in place the %age will be 100% (ie sum share price equals RYM shareprice) around 2050

As BP says value investing is a game for the patient - the very patient.

[couta1]

Baabaa has clarified with me why he got 56% average and I got 50% - baabaa has used a trend line number v my simple long term average.

Yes, on baabaa’s basis the % is increasing over time (that is the sum as % of RYM)

Extrapolating the trend line and assuming that the trend remains in place the %age will be 100% (ie sum share price equals RYM shareprice) around 2050

As BP says value investing is a game for the patient - the very patient. Beagle might be in SUM retirement village by then presuming he isn't in the dog cemetery.

[BlackPeter]

Baabaa has clarified with me why he got 56% average and I got 50% - baabaa has used a trend line number v my simple long term average.

Yes, on baabaa’s basis the % is increasing over time (that is the sum as % of RYM)

Extrapolating the trend line and assuming that the trend remains in place the %age will be 100% (ie sum share price equals RYM shareprice) around 2050

As BP says value investing is a game for the patient - the very patient.

The problem with linear extrapolations is - they are intuitive and easy to do, but in the long term always wrong :);

Nature is not linear ... and complex systems (like stock markets) still less so.

[winner69]

The problem with linear extrapolations is - they are intuitive and easy to do, but in the long term always wrong :);

Nature is not linear ... and complex systems (like stock markets) still less so.

But Mother Nature does keep many things orderly .....like she keeps us attached to earth and makes sure the sun rises every day (even if you can’t always see it)

[BlackPeter]

But Mother Nature does keep many things orderly .....like she keeps us attached to earth and makes sure the sun rises every day (even if you can’t always see it)

I guess it all depends on your point of view ;);

[winner69]

The problem with linear extrapolations is - they are intuitive and easy to do, but in the long term always wrong :);

Nature is not linear ... and complex systems (like stock markets) still less so.

Some say Nature’s Way is God’s Way

Suppose we better not go down that path.

[Brain]

Some say Nature’s Way is God’s Way

Suppose we better not go down that path.

Best not because then you will all have to put up with me talking about the flying Spaghetti monster

[Beagle]

Baabaa has clarified with me why he got 56% average and I got 50% - baabaa has used a trend line number v my simple long term average.

Yes, on baabaa’s basis the % is increasing over time (that is the sum as % of RYM)

Extrapolating the trend line and assuming that the trend remains in place the %age will be 100% (ie sum share price equals RYM shareprice) around 2050

As BP says value investing is a game for the patient - the very patient.


SUM closed at 48.69% so pretty close to half value aye but your proposed revised 56% theorum will have Beagle barking with joy and on that note it's good night from me.


As Couta’s Chief Science Advisor time to clarify what the Couta Theorem is. Actually it has now evolved into a LAW — Couta’s Law of Relativity

Couta’s Law of Relativity states that the SUM share price will always revert to 50% of the RYM share price

The 50% being the long term average since the SUM IPO

Note it doesn’t say it will be 50% all the time but during the ups and downs of the market the forces of nature will ensure it always will revert to 50%

As it did when RYM was trading at what seemed ridiculous multiples in 2014 and 2017 - Nature said things have got out of kilter so the forces of Nature ensured the relativity reverted back to 50%

And then SUM was hyped and ramped up to that ridiculously $8 level - Nature said things have got out kilter so the forces of Nature ensured the relativity reverted back to 50%

It’s all about that time reversion to the mean

Ignore the forces of Nature at your peril

Updated chart ...on monthly closing prices

SUM good Beagle bait there... but I am so sure this completely irrational quantum relative theorem debate has been done to absolute death that I am happy knowing I will be right eventually as share prices always follow earnings I will happily sleep my way to riches https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtBEmtj4FaM

[couta1]

SUM good Beagle bait there... but I am so sure this completely irrational quantum relative theorem debate has been done to absolute death that I am happy knowing I will be right eventually as share prices always follow earnings I will happily sleep my way to riches https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtBEmtj4FaM Haha but Xro's share price followed a lack of earnings up to dizzy levels, markets dont always follow rational thinking that's why it's best to be guided by Gold standard Theorums that have stood the test of time. PS - I'll leave you to SUM share whilst I myself are completely all out on a milky journey.

[Beagle]

Missing the XRO train...um...all I have to say is this lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esjec0JWEXU

[winner69]

Jeez ...this in the NBR sounds ominous ....using the word questionable ...ouch

Must try to get a copy


Ryman’s middle age spread

The retirement village company’s underlying earnings and growth assumptions look increasingly questionable.

[Beagle]

Jeez ...this in the NBR sounds ominous ....using the word questionable ...ouch

Must try to get a copy


Ryman’s middle age spread

The retirement village company’s underlying earnings and growth assumptions look increasingly questionable.

Good click bait headline that one. Thing is they keep saying their target is 15% underlying earnings growth which ostensibly almost exactly doubles underlying earnings every 5 years but they keep undershooting that 15% now more than once. They are starting to really underperform this sector but are priced at roughly double the underlying PE of SUM companies which have a well proven track record over many many years of growing MUCH faster.

No wonder they use the word "questionable"...I've been saying the same thing and questioning their valuation for a very, very long time.
Short Ryman / Long SUM a really great strategy to eliminate sector risk.

[winner69]

Good click bait headline that one. Thing is they keep saying their target is 15% underlying earnings growth which ostensibly almost exactly doubles underlying earnings every 5 years but they keep undershooting that 15% now more than once. They are starting to really underperform this sector but are priced at roughly double the underlying PE of SUM companies which have a well proven track record over many many years of growing MUCH faster.

No wonder they use the word "questionable"...I've been saying the same thing and questioning their valuation for a very, very long time.
Short Ryman / Long SUM a really great strategy to eliminate sector risk.

You got a sly job on the side doing commentary for the NBR!

[Beagle]

You got a sly job on the side doing commentary for the NBR!

Ssssshhhhh...keep it quiet :)

[winner69]

Does this disclosure mean that Andrew Mitchell no longer works at a Ryman and has cashed in $2.6m of his bonuses

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/335718/301292.pdf

[trader_jackson]

Does this disclosure mean that Andrew Mitchell no longer works at a Ryman and has cashed in $2.6m of his bonuses

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/335718/301292.pdf

You reckon he is jumping ship to Arvida like sum other executive did?

[winner69]

You reckon he is jumping ship to Arvida like sum other executive did?

No, sussed it out - Ryman announced changes to its development team, with Chief Development Officer Andrew Mitchell moving into a consulting role to assist with special projects.




.

[Baa_Baa]

consulting role to assist with special projects.

That’s usually the desk closest to the exit door.

[winner69]

Craig’s did a little piece on Ryman

https://craigsip.com/insights/overview/stock%20comment%202019/06/ryman%20healthcare

In our view RYM is the best fit in the sector, with a high quality portfolio, a proven track record and more defensive continuum of care model.

[waikare]

Craig’s did a little piece on Ryman

https://craigsip.com/insights/overview/stock%20comment%202019/06/ryman%20healthcare

In our view RYM is the best fit in the sector, with a high quality portfolio, a proven track record and more defensive continuum of care model.

Not too well received down 36 cents to $11.51 today

[MauroNZ]

Craig’s did a little piece on Ryman

https://craigsip.com/insights/overview/stock%20comment%202019/06/ryman%20healthcare

In our view RYM is the best fit in the sector, with a high quality portfolio, a proven track record and more defensive continuum of care model.

And I think last winter it was SUM their top pick. Which makes me think if these kind of companies can radically change in about one year.

[BlackPeter]

And I think last winter it was SUM their top pick. Which makes me think if these kind of companies can radically change in about one year.

They have to change their minds. Remember - they make (lots of) money by selling and buying shares for their investors. Not good if these investors would stop changing their portfolios.

[macduffy]

They have to change their minds. Remember - they make (lots of) money by selling and buying shares for their investors. Not good if these investors would stop changing their portfolios.

And of course, individual investors change their minds and sell non-performers from time to time, don't we?

:cool:

[BlackPeter]

And of course, individual investors change their minds and sell non-performers from time to time, don't we?

:cool:

Absolutely. The difference is - brokers are paid per transaction, no matter whether it adds value to the investors portfolio, while investors are only "paid" if they get it right ;);

[MauroNZ]

They have to change their minds. Remember - they make (lots of) money by selling and buying shares for their investors. Not good if these investors would stop changing their portfolios.

True, however I think what then happens to those who can't get that well informed and have no other option to rely on what the broker recommends. I'm not sure they are a lot though still people who their work and family doesn't give much time to read makes me think about.

[Food4Thought]

Not too well received down 36 cents to $11.51 today

Nearly a month on. $12.65 close today.

A good 9% increase in share price within a month...
Current SUM $5.55 vs RYM $12.65. That theory should swing into effect soon.

Disc. Not holding RYM, holding SUM & OCA (wish I didn't fold in 2009 with my RYM, Lessons learned)

[Leftfield]

NZSA on RYM....."cashflow negative."

"If the property market stays flat or declines this will impact reported profit in future years. Investors need to look past these headline numbers and consider the underlying operating profit and cash generation of the business as these determine its viability. The accounts show revenue excluding revaluations less total expenses was a much more modest $33m. With its intensive growth, RYM is overall cashflow negative meaning that additional debt is required each year. However, the growing asset base is very large and easily supports this at present."

NZSA here (https://www.nzshareholders.co.nz) to read the full article (you need to be a member)
(Disc - don't hold)

[Vaygor1]

NZSA on RYM....."cashflow negative."
.....

Hi Left field and thanks for your post. I am skeptical of the NZSA statement... it's a bit simplistic and uses a snapshot approach I believe, which doesn't take the passage of time into account. They do qualify it a bit referring to growth, however I attempt to add some context below:

RYM raised NZ$25 million at their IPO in 1999
Since that float, there has been zero fresh capital injected and they have paid out over NZ$800 million in dividends
Their cash receipts for the Financial Year Ending 31Mar2019 total over NZ$1 billion
Ryman's model of recycling capital hasn't changed.

Given the above, the NZSA's statement doesn't really stack up.

However, if the NZSA is accurate that "RYM is overall cashflow negative...", I am not the slightest bit worried as it is an essential ingredient to achieve growth.

i.e. If RYM stopped growing, you can be rest assured overall cashflow will not be negative.

There is an enormous undersupply of independent, assisted, and close-care retirement facilities in New Zealand and Victoria as we move into the next decade and beyond.

If all the retirement players (including the NZ and Victorian government) build as many as they can as fast as they can in these two localities, they still have no chance of keeping up with the aging demographics. No chance.

Ryman (and their competitors) continued growth will help me achieve:
1. As a New Zealand citizen, finding a retirement unit or care bed when the time comes.
2. As a current shareholder, affording it.


10673

10675

10674

10672

[Vaygor1]

Marked up pie chart from below. Time for the naughty corner Ryman. :D


10676

[winner69]

Vaygor - I love it when you get grumpy

That was a very good post

No doubt you are not worried about the ballooning debt that’s taken leverage to over 66%

[dreamcatcher]

Parcel of almost 3-million moved this morning @ $12.73

[Joshuatree]

In Aussie things getting tough for this sector, note the last two sentences.

"The sad facts are that the retirement industry is presently facing a perfect storm where public opinion is at an all time low (the Earl Haven Retirement Village fiasco on the Gold Coast hasn't helped) at a time when Federal and State Governments are under the pump to protect the elderly with legislation. Witness the new legislation where operators are required to compulsorily reacquire ILU's even if a re-sale has not been enacted. The additional capital required to run the DMF model is growing hugely." H/C

[Gecko]

Anyone else having an issue loading the Ryman AGM stream? Can see slide but black space from venue and no sound. No connectivity issues this end. Not a great look!

[Gecko]

Oh there we go...10 mins in.

[limmy]

Thanks Gecko,
I'm enjoying the live streaming now...

Cheers,
limmy

[Joshuatree]

Apologies if already posted but found this just now whilst browsing around.What a great App.
Ryman Healthcare technology wins top international award (https://www.theweeklysource.com.au/ryman-healthcare-technology-wins-top-international-award/)

[pierre]

An excellent presentation by Ryman CE, Gordon MacLeod, at today's NZ Shareholders Assn conference in Christchurch.
One of the charts he displayed on the screen showed the astronomical forecast growth in the over 80's population over the coming years. I can't recall the actual numbers but I doubt that RYM, SUM, OCA, ARV MET combined will have a hope in hell of dealing with the opportunity.

Interestingly, Gordon referred to the title of this thread, and said boring is good. They spend every day focused on doing the best for their residents and staff and basically, everything else falls into place.

PS. The NZSA is doing sterling work to support and protect the interests of retail investors. It costs $145 pa to belong - and Past president John Hawkins said, provided you have some income from share dividends you can probably claim the fee in your tax return. (This is not tax advice.) If you're not a member, please give consideration to joining. https://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/

[Vaygor1]

This from 2 days ago. The Ausralian Financial Review.

For Melbourne and Sydney, House price growth 'close to boom times'.

Link...

https://www.afr.com/property/residential/rapid-bounce-back-house-prices-gain-momentum-20190930-p52wda

[Beagle]

This from 2 days ago. The Ausralian Financial Review.

For Melbourne and Sydney, House price growth 'close to boom times'.

Link...

https://www.afr.com/property/residential/rapid-bounce-back-house-prices-gain-momentum-20190930-p52wda

Looks like SUM other company entered the market at the "purrfect" time :)

[winner69]

C’mon folks - have to move with the times and if old nice buildings have to be knocked down sobeit

Like this bit from Ryman -

The village operator also thought it was a nice quirk of history that the site built for the education of baby boomers in the 1960s was now being converted into a different use for them in the next phase of this site’s history.





http://wellington.scoop.co.nz/?p=123373

[winner69]

On other threads posted by Beagle. Applies to RYM as well



Real estate going gangbusters in the regions and doing okay in Auckland too https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Defaul...ber%202019.pdf
SUM very well positioned with the widespread geographical locations of their villages. Hawkes Bay for instance up nearly 17% and Nelson up 11%.
National Medium up a whopping 8.2%.
No wonder RBNZ stayed on hold yesterday...(probably had early access to these very strong statistics)

[BlackPeter]

Quite devastating report on Radio NZ about Ryman throwing out a resident in need due to lack of space in their care department:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018722653

Evicting a resident of six years on Christmas eve and dumping her into the public hospital. Apparently they just discovered that day that the lady needs now hospital level care and that their own care facility is full and that they can't accomodate for her. How convenient - for the rest home.

Nice Christmas prezzy as well. I am wondering whether they just forgot to put something else into her stockings?

And Ryman is supposed to be the gold standard of retirement care? Really?

[dabsman]

Not much you can do if she needs medical attention and they are full. Cant build more beds overnight - if anything it shows how good an investment this sector is becoming

[Beagle]

Quite devastating report on Radio NZ about Ryman throwing out a resident in need due to lack of space in their care department:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018722653

Evicting a resident of six years on Christmas eve and dumping her into the public hospital. Apparently they just discovered that day that the lady needs now hospital level care and that their own care facility is full and that they can't accomodate for her. How convenient - for the rest home.

Nice Christmas prezzy as well. I am wondering whether they just forgot to put something else into her stockings?

And Ryman is supposed to be the gold standard of retirement care? Really?

I was most underwhelmed with the standard of care my father received in a Ryman dementia unit. A heck of a lot depends upon the staff at each care facility.

[couta1]

I was most underwhelmed with the standard of care my father received in a Ryman dementia unit. A heck of a lot depends upon the staff at each care facility. All these companies have stories like this(Yes SUM is very much included) most unknown to the public or shareholders. On the whole RYM is top notch but of course as you grow bigger theres more scope for things to go wrong and as you have said its predominantly about the staff and it only takes one rogue element to do damage.

[Beagle]

All these companies have stories like this(Yes SUM is very much included) most unknown to the public or shareholders. On the whole RYM is top notch but of course as you grow bigger theres more scope for things to go wrong and as you have said its predominantly about the staff and it only takes one rogue element to do damage.

Very true mate. When Dad was first admitted the dementia centre manager was very good as she knew my father from his days in his working career and he was well looked after. Later after that care centre manager was headhunted by a competitor things went downhill very quickly.

[winner69]

All these companies have stories like this(Yes SUM is very much included) most unknown to the public or shareholders. On the whole RYM is top notch but of course as you grow bigger theres more scope for things to go wrong and as you have said its predominantly about the staff and it only takes one rogue element to do damage.

I’m sure they do all have had similar ‘experiences’

[BlackPeter]

Not much you can do if she needs medical attention and they are full. Cant build more beds overnight - if anything it shows how good an investment this sector is becoming

Sure - but it didn't sounded like it was an emergency.

It was not like she had a heart attack and had to temporarily go to the hospital - everybody would understand that. They decided on Christmas eve to evict her and render her homeless. Quite different story.

[winner69]

Do people still find somewhere to ‘put’ Gran like a hospital at Xmas so they can go on holiday?

[BlackPeter]

All these companies have stories like this(Yes SUM is very much included) most unknown to the public or shareholders. On the whole RYM is top notch but of course as you grow bigger theres more scope for things to go wrong and as you have said its predominantly about the staff and it only takes one rogue element to do damage.

I am sure you are right - but it is the way the company deals with these unfortunate events afterwards. Sounds like the relatives of the lady who was the victím of Ryman's poor care had to go through the full complaints process to get sort of an apology from Ryman. Ryman clearly was not interested to put it right. No attempt to find somewhere else a spot - and no explanation why the need for the eviction was discovered so suddenly and unexpected the day before Christmas. I would think that an experienced operator can prepare and manage worsening conditions and talk in time with everybody involved and offer them alternative solutions. Quite poor form I would think.

And yes, everybody can make mistakes, but if they don't even bother to put it right afterwards (or only if forced by the tribunal) than I wonder what Ryman's promise is worth ....

[justakiwi]

I work as a caregiver in a rest home and would say this is not common at all. Sometimes things are also not what they first seem. We had a lovely man come in for respite on Christmas Day a few years ago. We very wrongly jumped to the conclusion that his family had “sent” him. We felt really sorry for him but did our best to make his stay, and Christmas Day a really happy one. He told us some time later (before he died) that his family didn’t want him to come - he made the decision, and organised it, himself, against their wishes, because he wanted them to be able to enjoy their Christmas with their families without the worry of having to care for him. He was absolutely OK with the decision he made for himself. His family were gutted and sad.

We don’t always know the full story - I learned an important lesson.


Do people still find somewhere to ‘put’ Gran like a hospital at Xmas so they can go on holiday?

[macduffy]

Thanks for bringing a bit of perspective to this discussion, justakiwi.

:)

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344626

biggest thing for me is how underlying EPS up only a third of what ARV produced...

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344626

biggest thing for me is how underlying EPS up only a third of what ARV produced...

Operating Cash Flow up a staggering 18% though

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344626

biggest thing for me is how underlying EPS up only a third of what ARV produced...

Stop it t_j

Bad enough you comparing this to ARV ....it’ll just start pages of comparatives with others in the sector (note I left a word out)

Just talk about how wonderful Ryman are

[winner69]

This is all you need to know

Even more impressive when considering the law of big numbers

[Beagle]

Yes, Ryman is boring. Some people like super boring though and I would too if it was on an attractive PE.
At mid point of forecast $257.5m on 500 million shares = forecast underling eps of 51.5 cps. $14.20 places them on a forward PE of 27.6.
This compares to a forward PE of just 10.7 for MET which has been growing underlying earnings on average faster over the last 5 years and it trades on a PEG ratio of just 0.7.
No wonder someone is trying to take over MET and leaving RYM and others in the sector alone.

[Snow Leopard]

Yes, Ryman is boring. Some people like super boring though and I would too if it was on an attractive PE.
At mid point of forecast $257.5m on 500 million shares = forecast underling eps of 51.5 cps. $14.20 places them on a forward PE of 27.6.
This compares to a forward PE of just 10.7 for MET which has been growing underlying earnings on average faster over the last 5 years and it trades on a PEG ratio of just 0.7.
No wonder someone is trying to take over MET and leaving RYM and others in the sector alone.

Did you sign up for one of those make $1,000's per month from the comfort of your own home schemes?

'Simply troll, sorry post, this text into every thread on every discussion board, news item comment and message your soon to be ex-friends.

'B, an accountant from West Auckland, eats a better brand of dog-food copy and pasting this one sentence 10,000 times per day'.

[LAC]

Nice reading but this giant is slowing down compared to the others. I am not totally convinced the Theory of Couta will go on much longer:)