RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[Beagle]

Comparisons within a sector are inevitable, some animals need to wake up, smell the coffee, get over themselves and realise that.

[Snow Leopard]

Ryman should really start using log scale charts to show their unrenlenting progress to world domination.

Things look pretty good to those of us who read all the details.

Disc: do not hold

[dabsman]

This is the exciting stuff for me:

“The team exchanged a record 260 new sales, resales and care contracts in the first half in Victoria. We are interacting with more people than ever and there is no doubt our brand awareness is growing."
We have recently submitted our tenth development application in Victoria. Five development approvals have been granted already, and Ryman continues to target having five villages open by the end of 2020 calendar year.

[winner69]

Aussie property prices rebounding strongly.

Westpac say - Melbourne recorded a 2.2% rise following a 2.3% gain in Oct that was the strongest since 2009. Having come through a milder price correction, the gains mean Melbourne prices are now only 3.7% below their late 2017 peak.

[winner69]

RYM share price nearly hit $16 today

Pretty amazing eh

But then Ryman is the gold standard of the sector and globally well respected

[Beagle]

VWAP is $15.63 and half of that is $7.82...SUM currently a bit cheap eh :)

[Beagle]

RYM closed at $16.14 therefore "The Gold Standard" says SUM is worth $8.07. SUM is cheap !!

[winner69]

RYM closed at $16.14 therefore "The Gold Standard" says SUM is worth $8.07. SUM is cheap !!

That’s awesome for RYM ...others (except Oceania of course) will follow

And don’t forget this implies MET should be over $8 as well .....even more with corporate activity

[Beagle]

That’s awesome for RYM ...others (except Oceania of course) will follow

And don’t forget this implies MET should be over $8 as well .....even more with corporate activity

Thanks, I had forgotten that.

[winner69]

Thanks, I had forgotten that.

If somebody got MET for your $7 odd it’s a steal and Directors / shareholders will have to hold their heads in shame.

[Beagle]

Whatever happens there will be something to bark about :lol:

[macduffy]

Let's not assume that RYM will automatically lift all the also-rans.

Disc: I hold em all now!

:)

[dabsman]

Such a stellar run the last few months - odds on a share split in the new year? >50% surely?

[macduffy]

Such a stellar run the last few months - odds on a share split in the new year? >50% surely?

Why? The NZX needs a few big-value champions. Look at the ASX and the likes of CSL, RIO, COH, MQG, REA and plenty of others.

[dabsman]

Why? The NZX needs a few big-value champions. Look at the ASX and the likes of CSL, RIO, COH, MQG, REA and plenty of others.

Just going on past behaviour really

[dreamcatcher]

Wow RYM took a big 87c dump yesterday matched most of Aus I suppose ..........

[winner69]

Staff appointment reinforces something macduffy said on another thread

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/347209/315359.pdf

Seems to have earned 70,000 shares over the years for his good work and loyalty

Ryman looking after all stakeholders good to see

[macduffy]

Very odd. RYM shareprice gained 4.1% today while SUM other lost a cent. Must be that mysterious ratio doing its thing again.

;)

[couta1]

Punters love this stock, take a look at the daily quote chart, just shoots up all of a sudden and at random.

[Scrunch]

Punters love this stock, take a look at the daily quote chart, just shoots up all of a sudden and at random.

The price has collapsed recently. There was even trades under $10 today. Last time it was under 10 looks to be 2017.

[winner69]

Lady in a Ryman village says her village in lockdown with security on gate.

She’s going to ‘escape’ next weekend to go granddaughters wedding,

She was radio just now

[Beagle]

That's a worry and could signal another major leg down tomorrow.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12316900

3 Craigs analysts issued a concerning report today highlighting how demand in the entire sector could be seriously affected if even one village was infected. Effectivly the reputation of the entire sector is on the line.
They noted concerns for the debt levels and growth in development plans of all operators but noted RYM's debt level was the highest at 39.6% !

Pretty gloomy reading. As we've discussed many times on the SUM thread, an excess of supply over demand is already a major factor for the entire industry. Most concerning is that ALL sector participants are further ramping up their level of unit development, some to quite a considerable degree.

We could be on the cusp of a major leg downwards in demand right at a time when all in the sector are dramatically ramping up supply.

I think its a good sector to avoid in the short term.

[ratkin]

That's a worry and could signal another major leg down tomorrow.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12316900

3 Craigs analysts issued a concerning report today highlighting how demand in the entire sector could be seriously affected if even one village was infected. Effectivly the reputation of the entire sector is on the line.
They noted concerns for the debt levels and growth in development plans of all operators but noted RYM's debt level was the highest at 39.6% !

Pretty gloomy reading. As we've discussed many times on the SUM thread, an excess of supply over demand is already a major factor for the entire industry. Most concerning is that ALL sector participants are further ramping up their level of unit development, some to quite a considerable degree.

We could be on the cusp of a major leg downwards in demand right at a time when all in the sector are dramatically ramping up supply.

I think its a good sector to avoid in the short term.

Elderly planning to move to villages could also decline rapidly, on account of them being dead. Hopefully will not happen but if we see Italy type numbers we would lose enough to make a big dent in future demand. Sounds awful, but it is quite possible the way things are going

[Beagle]

Elderly planning to move to villages could also decline rapidly, on account of them being dead. Hopefully will not happen but if we see Italy type numbers we would lose enough to make a big dent in future demand. Sounds awful, but it is quite possible the way things are going

More concerning is the perception that the elderly are safer staying in their own homes now. Its all about perception. It doesn't matter whether they are in fact, safer or not. Demand will fall off the face of a cliff if even just a small handful of villages get the virus in them.

[Scrunch]

The UK is planning to self-isolate its elderly (70+) for an extended period of potentially 4 months (and that the timeframe being mentioned now in a quickly evolving situation).

What are overseas plans like this going to do to peoples thinking and potential unit purchases? It would be difficult to self-isolate these people them when they are still in their own home. It would be quite easy if they are in a village - be that a RYM, SUM, MET, ADV or OCA village?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51895873

[King1212]

That's a worry and could signal another major leg down tomorrow.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12316900

3 Craigs analysts issued a concerning report today highlighting how demand in the entire sector could be seriously affected if even one village was infected. Effectivly the reputation of the entire sector is on the line.
They noted concerns for the debt levels and growth in development plans of all operators but noted RYM's debt level was the highest at 39.6% !

Pretty gloomy reading. As we've discussed many times on the SUM thread, an excess of supply over demand is already a major factor for the entire industry. Most concerning is that ALL sector participants are further ramping up their level of unit development, some to quite a considerable degree.

We could be on the cusp of a major leg downwards in demand right at a time when all in the sector are dramatically ramping up supply.

I think its a good sector to avoid in the short term.

No wonder ...big sell off ...with fear..I could smell it.people were pissing on their pants. .. especially on OCA.....good gold article....pretty a good tree shaking. ...would we see big fundies...topping up soon?

[macduffy]

Settle down, King! It's not the end of the world, yet.

;)

[tomm]

Settle down, King! It's not the end of the world, yet.

;)
Picked up some chips cheaps chips chaps stocks.

[value_investor]

This is a stock I've admired for so long but haven't been able to get into due to valuation..

Finally its come down to where I would like to see it, so I'm chuffed to pick some up. As Warren Buffet said, when its raining gold outside reach for a bucket and not a thimble.

[Jaa]

This is a stock I've admired for so long but haven't been able to get into due to valuation..

Finally its come down to where I would like to see it, so I'm chuffed to pick some up. As Warren Buffet said, when its raining gold outside reach for a bucket and not a thimble.

Where's the value though? Dividend yield still only 2.6% and the share price is double NTA.

It was valued for growth but will there be any growth for a few years?

How will revenue go if property prices fall which now seems likely? No more juicy property re-valuations.

[trackers]

^ Yeah there probably is a reasonable impact to the business with potential losses in property value and reduced demand of people wanting to live in close quarters with others (and obv this would drastically worsen were there to be an outbreak in a retirement home).

I'll prob pick some up in next 6 months but I will be watching TA very closely before doing so

[ananda77]

The more people die earlier in those villages, the more profit the operators make

[Zaphod]

The more people die earlier in those villages, the more profit the operators make

Villages with significant outbreaks leading to death wouldn't necessarily be viewed favourably by future customers, so the statement above might not hold true. Let's hope this doesn't happen.

[BlackPeter]

The more people die earlier in those villages, the more profit the operators make

Not quite true and as well a pretty nasty thing to say.

While it is true that shorter stay times would short term increase the income though earlier DMF payments, it is as well crucial that future clients feel safe and protected in these villages, otherwise the units won't re-sell. A high rate of infected and dying people in these villages would be quite counterproductive in that regard.

Retirement villages must do all it takes to make sure that their residents are better protected than the general population - and I am sure they do.

[King1212]

The more people die earlier in those villages, the more profit the operators make

That nasty to say at the current time.....hope u delete it

[tomm]

This is excellence and quick response from RYM.

Covid 19 coronavirus: Ryman Healthcare shutting its doors to visitors to help stop spread of virus.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12318779

[tomm]

Unbelieveable , RYM moved up 30%+ in 1 single day .

[Bjauck]

Unbelieveable , RYM moved up 30%+ in 1 single day . The sharemarket is behaving like a punch-drunk boxer.

[macduffy]

Unbelieveable , RYM moved up 30%+ in 1 single day .

Yes, but from a sadly shrunken shareprice!

[Cadalac123]

Probably an institution dipping their toes. No fundamental change, if anything negative sentiment over the next month.

DCA is the safest way to play this imo wouldn't buy on days like this

[tomm]

Yes, but from a sadly shrunken shareprice!
Seems Lockdown helped it settling for now.

[tomm]

Probably an institution dipping their toes. No fundamental change, if anything negative sentiment over the next month.

DCA is the safest way to play this imo wouldn't buy on days like this
Well, there were 2,095,958 shares volume today.

[longy]

May be it has something to do with Morning Stars has a recommendation of a "buy" and valuation at $13?

[tomm]

May be it has something to do with Morning Stars has a recommendation of a "buy" and valuation at $13?
Article please ?

[44wishlists]

Article please ?

Go to MorningStar and look it up yourself bro. No one is going to spoon feed you here.

[tomm]

Go to MorningStar and look it up yourself bro. No one is going to spoon feed you here.
Thanks for that , but probably needs a solid backup for what you said, anyway, It is a solid buy for me.

[Jaa]

Unbelieveable , RYM moved up 30%+ in 1 single day .

Not a boring stock anymore is it?! :eek2:

[trackers]

Crazy gains. very impressive. I was tempted yest but alas, still on the sidelines

[tomm]

Not a boring stock anymore is it?! :eek2:
They are also listed as essential business. It seems to me all the essential businesses have a lift since yesterday.

[Sideshow Bob]

Crazy gains. very impressive. I was tempted yest but alas, still on the sidelines

Up over $3 (nearly 50%) since the lows on Monday arvo. WTF.....

[Cadalac123]

If you just dollar cost averaged (after a drop percent appropriate/relevant to a valuation made by you via DCF or other means)rather than worried about the share price and listen to people on this forum you would have benefitted from this gain even if it’s short term

[tomm]

If you just dollar cost averaged (after a drop percent appropriate/relevant to a valuation made by you via DCF or other means)rather than worried about the share price and listen to people on this forum you would have benefitted from this gain even if it’s short term
Well said, as I recently sold all my ATm holding to buy in for this stock and I think it is a solid buy at the moment ,even at $11. Regarding this stock was holding above ATM for months.

[Beagle]

Thought I might just chip in with my 2 cents worth in these very "interesting" times.
No question RYM is the market leader in this sector or that they have their systems, procedures and capabilities well honed and practiced.
Its currently trading at over 2x its asset backing and is ostensibly a property company.

Is this logical given:-
1. There is vastly more competition in this sector these days both listed and unlisted
2. Their growth rate has slowed considerably in recent years and they have been growing underlying profit over the last 5 years slower than SUM, ARV and even MET
3. It appears the whole market is significantly oversupplied with retirement units
4. There are many other property companies and other retirement companies trading at a discount to NTA and in some cases a deep discount.
5. RYM recently withdrew guidance for the year.

They are good operators, no question. They are not wizards and not immune to the same factors affecting other property companies and sector participants. Sorry, that's probably 3 cents worth :)

[Mr Slothbear]

Its currently trading at over 2x its asset backing and is ostensibly a property company.



I strongly disagree.

Ryman is not summerset.

their care business is very profitable and as directors have said over and over its needs based. Take a look at the reports during the GFC or even the last few years where sydney and melbourne prices dropped.

[tomm]

I strongly disagree.

Ryman is not summerset.

their care business is very profitable and as directors have said over and over its needs based. Take a look at the reports during the GFC or even the last few years where sydney and melbourne prices dropped.
They're also managing and expanding the business to it's great potentials, that is what I like about it.

[Beagle]

I strongly disagree.

Ryman is not summerset.

their care business is very profitable and as directors have said over and over its needs based. Take a look at the reports during the GFC or even the last few years where sydney and melbourne prices dropped.

I have already very carefully reviewed their 5 year summary of financial performance. SUM, in the present circumstances are probably not worth their current price either in my opinion.

Taking a medium term view how I would rank the companies as proving the best chance for outperformance against the sector based on today's share price is
1 OCA
2. ARV
3. SUM
4. RYM

MET is going to be a trainwreck if as I expect, (the takeover is withdrawn) but may be good value at about $3.50 once the dust settles.

[tomm]

After the Lockdown and things are safes, this stock will fly.

[Bjauck]

They are also listed as essential business. It seems to me all the essential businesses have a lift since yesterday. Surely it was never a possibility it would not be an essential business. If it were not an essential business, would they need to evict all the residents?

[tomm]

Surely it was never a possibility it would not be an essential business. If it were not an essential business, would they need to evict all the residents?
Well, I am just saying .

[Cadalac123]

I have already very carefully reviewed their 5 year summary of financial performance. SUM, in the present circumstances are probably not worth their current price either in my opinion.

Taking a medium term view how I would rank the companies as proving the best chance for outperformance against the sector based on today's share price is
1 OCA
2. ARV
3. SUM
4. RYM

MET is going to be a trainwreck if as I expect, (the takeover is withdrawn) but may be good value at about $3.50 once the dust settles.

Can't believe i'm saying this, but actually fully agree with this post.

[Yoda]

Thanks Beagle et al. Good reading .
keep safe

[tomm]

The smallers are just designed to feed the bigs.

[longy]

Article please ?

No article just an upgrade from accumulate to buy due to price changed.

[justakiwi]

Apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere - I did search in case it had, but didn’t find anything.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/120646094/coronavirus-ryman-healthcare-gives-essential-workers-pay-boost?fbclid=IwAR2X5pvQ3eUvZgJMVI9Wlvdkw5T6KzkEEV_ c8Z-0Ij72e3Jg9SGj9hiolLQ

This is what a good employer looks like. An employer who genuinely understands that without their staff they would have no business. An employer who recognises the physical and emotional impact the current situation has on staff. An employer who appreciates their staff’s commitment to continue providing quality care and support to their residents, in a time of major risk and uncertainty. I do not hold RYM but they deserve a major thumbs up for this. I would happily work for them if the opportunity ever arose.

[Balance]

Apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere - I did search in case it had, but didn’t find anything.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/120646094/coronavirus-ryman-healthcare-gives-essential-workers-pay-boost?fbclid=IwAR2X5pvQ3eUvZgJMVI9Wlvdkw5T6KzkEEV_ c8Z-0Ij72e3Jg9SGj9hiolLQ

This is what a good employer looks like. An employer who genuinely understands that without their staff they would have no business. An employer who recognises the physical and emotional impact the current situation has on staff. An employer who appreciates their staff’s commitment to continue providing quality care and support to their residents, in a time of major risk and uncertainty. I do not hold RYM but they deserve a major thumbs up for this. I would happily work for them if the opportunity ever arose.

Hear! Hear!

Properly recognizing the risk that their staff is taking each and every day.

In contrast, devastatingly sad to read about how staff at some rest & retirement homes just abandoned those in their care in Spain - leaving them to die of the virus or die from neglect and starvation.

[justakiwi]

OMG. That is heartbreaking :(



In contrast, devastatingly sad to read about how staff at some rest & retirement homes just abandoned those in their care in Spain - leaving them to die of the virus or die from neglect and starvation.

[Balance]

OMG. That is heartbreaking :(

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/world/europe/Spain-coronavirus-nursing-homes.html

"Soldiers who were sent to disinfect nursing homes had found people “completely abandoned, or even dead, in their beds,” the defense secretary, Margarita Robles, revealed on Monday. More gruesome discoveries followed, including the revelation of two dozen deaths in a single nursing home in Madrid." "Another source of pride for the Spanish has been the country’s robust public health care system; last year, a study ranked Spain as the world’s healthiest country."

Let's be grateful that our aged care industry in NZ maintains a good standard.

[tomm]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/world/europe/Spain-coronavirus-nursing-homes.html

"Soldiers who were sent to disinfect nursing homes had found people “completely abandoned, or even dead, in their beds,” the defense secretary, Margarita Robles, revealed on Monday. More gruesome discoveries followed, including the revelation of two dozen deaths in a single nursing home in Madrid." "Another source of pride for the Spanish has been the country’s robust public health care system; last year, a study ranked Spain as the world’s healthiest country."

Let's be grateful that our aged care industry in NZ maintains a good standard.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/120646094/coronavirus-ryman-healthcare-gives-essential-workers-pay-boost?fbclid=IwAR2X5pvQ3eUvZgJMVI9Wlvdkw5T6KzkEEV_ c8Z-0Ij72e3Jg9SGj9hiolLQ
This is what the managements of a big company is about. RYM knows how to manage the business up to the best level as possible. As they put their business onto lock down to protect their residents even before the government's announcement for lock down while the others were still scratching their heads. If some one keep telling me to compare RYM with others, I shall just laugh.
Very proud being one of RYM's share holders.

[tomm]

Watch this stock as investors sold A2M and Fisher Paykel Health to look for bargain stocks.

[Ggcc]

Watch this stock as investors sold A2M and Fisher Paykel Health to look for bargain stocks.
Do you think Ryman is a bargain at these levels??? Take off the rose tinted glasses if you think Ryman is cheap. There are plenty of other stock well below their NTA.......

[44wishlists]

Ryman has the biggest size land bank among the listed operators. It could well be a disadvantage to them for the years to come, both in Australia and New Zealand. If you think RYM is a bargain, then I would think A2 is a bargain too.

[longy]

Do you think Ryman is a bargain at these levels??? Take off the rose tinted glasses if you think Ryman is cheap. There are plenty of other stock well below their NTA.......

Care to list a few of those stocks Ggcc? Love to know what they are. Thanks in advance.

[Ggcc]

Care to list a few of those stocks Ggcc? Love to know what they are. Thanks in advance.
Look it up as I am sure in lockdown you will have plenty of time. OCA is one

[Beagle]

Care to list a few of those stocks Ggcc? Love to know what they are. Thanks in advance.

Start by looking at MET and OCA. Then look at the average underlying growth for the last five years in MET, ARV and SUM and compare them to RYM.

The facts do not support anything like the current share price of RYM relative to the rest of the sector. I care nothing for their historical reputation...I care for companies who are trading on facts and numbers that support the share price. RYM also has the highest debt in the sector....its actually their external debt that's one of their fastest growing metrics :eek2: I'll let you think about whether that's a good thing in a new "normal" in which we now exist.

[tomm]

Start by looking at MET and OCA. Then look at the average underlying growth for the last five years in MET, ARV and SUM and compare them to RYM.

The facts do not support anything like the current share price of RYM relative to the rest of the sector. I care nothing for their historical reputation...I care for companies who are trading on facts and numbers that support the share price. RYM also has the highest debt in the sector....its actually their external debt that's one of their fastest growing metrics :eek2: I'll let you think about whether that's a good thing in a new "normal" in which we now exist.
Everyone thinks as such and still have no ideas why RYM is still the best choice .
Whatever OCA growths in a year is just the same as RYM jumps in a day. :)

[Ggcc]

Everyone thinks as such and still have no ideas why RYM is still the best choice .
Whatever OCA growths in a year is just the same as RYM jumps in a day. :)

At this point OCA is up 8.8% today. RYM (which is a great company) is up 0.5% up today. I’m am so happy I loaded up on OCA two weeks ago and still under NTA. Longterm RYM will always do well and I don’t want to flog a great company. My short term thoughts were great companies for their fair value. I guess others agreed as well.

[tomm]

At this point OCA is up 8.8% today. RYM (which is a great company) is up 0.5% up today. I’m am so happy I loaded up on OCA two weeks ago and still under NTA. Longterm RYM will always do well and I don’t want to flog a great company. My short term thoughts were great companies for their fair value. I guess others agreed as well.
Due to the pandemic anything can happen at the moment, good on you for taking the advantage of it, I also loaded myself with RYM at $7.20 two week ago. :)
8.8% jump of OCA is just almost equal to 1% jump of RYM.

[longy]

I must admit I did not read too much into the financial stuff but I have owned OCA, Sum before, and have sold out RYM a long time ago. When I saw retirement sector has dropped so much a few weeks ago and thought if I to buy some share in this sector and in this condition... What would that be? So I went for the biggest guy. Time will tell if RYM would be a good buy but so far mine has gone up 69%. Really all of these gain is on paper anyway and for now it is just pixel on the screen really right.

[tomm]

I must admit I did not read too much into the financial stuff but I have owned OCA, Sum before, and have sold out RYM a long time ago. When I saw retirement sector has dropped so much a few weeks ago and thought if I to buy some share in this sector and in this condition... What would that be? So I went for the biggest guy. Time will tell if RYM would be a good buy but so far mine has gone up 69%. Really all of these gain is on paper anyway and for now it is just pixel on the screen really right.
Great to know. As for the record RYM was even higher than A2 a month ago.

[tomm]

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-price-negative-first-time-ever-211858601--spt.html
Oil price into negative .

The reasons for down this morning to all.
To catch some bargains before it goes into Level 3 , stronger.

[macduffy]

Yes, the May futures price dropped into negative territory yesterday and sharemarkets reacted accordingly, including the NZX today. RYM price, however is down almost 4%, rather more than the NZX50, which seems a bit excessive, given that the company isn't directly affected by the oil price.

[tomm]

Yes, the May futures price dropped into negative territory yesterday and sharemarkets reacted accordingly, including the NZX today. RYM price, however is down almost 4%, rather more than the NZX50, which seems a bit excessive, given that the company isn't directly affected by the oil price.
Yes, you are right , thinking it will recover at the end of today.

[longy]

Yes, you are right , thinking it will recover at the end of today.

Hopefully this oil episode is a short spell. I would imagine countries around the world slowly lifting the lock-down, so does the demand for oil. Anyhow, Dow's future has been Green for most part of today.

[InvestingTesting]

Looking on Yahoo Finance I can see that Ryman has higher earnings than revenues. Would anyone be able to explain how this has happened, I know it is because they have other incomes but what would this other income be? I tried to look at the annual report but the financials there don't show a lot more either.

[Gerald]

Looking on Yahoo Finance I can see that Ryman has higher earnings than revenues. Would anyone be able to explain how this has happened, I know it is because they have other incomes but what would this other income be? I tried to look at the annual report but the financials there don't show a lot more either.

Not possible, as earnings = profit. Don't trust 3rd party sites, always look directly at the annual reports.

[InvestingTesting]

Not possible, as earnings = profit. Don't trust 3rd party sites, always look directly at the annual reports.

Cheers, it was because they have a lot of other non-revenue income in the form of unrealised gains on investment property.

[winner69]

Ryman MOST TRUSTED in sector again

Summerset and Bupa highly commended

https://www.trustedbrands.co.nz/results.asp

[tomm]

Ryman MOST TRUSTED in sector again

Summerset and Bupa highly commended

https://www.trustedbrands.co.nz/results.asp

AWARD: WINNER
CATEGORY: AGED CARE & RETIREMENT VILLAGES

NEW ZEALANDERS ARE NOT RETIRING FROM LIFE, they're living with passion and purpose, striving to push the boundaries to create better outcomes. They're looking for a new way to live. That’s why Ryman is pioneering retirement living to better serve current, and future, generations of Kiwis. "We always have, and always will, challenge the status quo and adapt to better serve our residents," says Gordon MacLeod, Chief Executive, Ryman Healthcare.
Since starting out in 1984, Ryman has cared for more than 30,000 people in its beautiful purpose-built villages. It has been a trailblazer in retirement living and care options, and to cement this fact has named its retirement villages after Kiwi trailblazers, including Sir Edmund Hillary, Rita Angus and Logan Campbell.
The company applies the same trailblazing spirit to every Ryman experience, whether that be through its award-winning myRyman care app, its Delicious menu, or its industry-leading deferred management fee and dial-up care options. "Our pioneering reputation is built upon providing comfort, security and the best possible care," says MacLeod.
As its culture is based on caring, kindness and pioneering a better way for residents, Ryman looks for these qualities in its team of 5,700 people, with an emphasis on placing residents' welfare first, and adapting to each new retirement generation.

https://www.trustedbrands.co.nz/brand-showcase/Ryman-Healthcare.asp

[BlackPeter]

Looking on Yahoo Finance I can see that Ryman has higher earnings than revenues. Would anyone be able to explain how this has happened, I know it is because they have other incomes but what would this other income be? I tried to look at the annual report but the financials there don't show a lot more either.

Easy. Most retirement villages do have higher earnings than revenues.

Revenues are essentially the money stream paid to them by customers over the year.

Earnings are Revenues minus Operating costs plus (or minus) any revaluation gains (losses) and other depreciation

If property prices go up than property owners enjoy revaluation gains. These do go on the balance sheet and turn into earnings. However - if property prices go down (might be this year), then obviously this mechanism works against them.

[Biscuit]

However - if property prices go down (might be this year), then obviously this mechanism works against them.

From memory, Ryman use some sort of long-term average to calculate values so not dependent on single year changes in value.

[BlackPeter]

From memory, Ryman use some sort of long-term average to calculate values so not dependent on single year changes in value.

Would not make any change to my statement ... it just would mean that any drop would take longer to get into the books but as well longer to get out again.

[Balance]

Just finished reading a recently issued report by one of the major broking houses in Australasia on NZ's Retirement Village sector.

Nothing really new which have not been discussed and debated ad nauseam here in the Meet, Sum & Oca threads.

Nevertheless, a few key points to note from the report (report goes to their institutional & international client base so bound to have some influence) :

1. Demographics trend continue to provide strong tailwind for long term performance of the sector, population of 75+ to double over next 10 years (250,000 more), and

2. Short term headwinds of increased costs and lower unit resales to adversely impact on profits in 2020/21.

Sensitivities:

1. Increased costs in order of biggest impact - OCA, ARV, RYM, SUM & MET

2. Devaluation of asset values when gearing hits 50% (trigger point for debt concerns) - RYM (14%), SUM (15%), OCA (25%), ARV (26%) & MET (38%).

3. Most highly geared so likely to require capital raising - RYM (40%), SUM (33%), OCA (31%), ARV (27%) & MET (16%).

[tomm]

Just finished reading a recently issued report by one of the major broking houses in Australasia on NZ's Retirement Village sector.

Nothing really new which have not been discussed and debated ad nauseam here in the Meet, Sum & Oca threads.

Nevertheless, a few key points to note from the report (report goes to their institutional & international client base so bound to have some influence) :

1. Demographics trend continue to provide strong tailwind for long term performance of the sector, population of 75+ to double over next 10 years (250,000 more), and

2. Short term headwinds of increased costs and lower unit resales to adversely impact on profits in 2020/21.

Sensitivities:

1. Increased costs in order of biggest impact - OCA, ARV, RYM, SUM & MET

2. Devaluation of asset values when gearing hits 50% (trigger point for debt concerns) - RYM (14%), SUM (15%), OCA (25%), ARV (26%) & MET (38%).

3. Most highly geared so likely to require capital raising - RYM (40%), SUM (33%), OCA (31%), ARV (27%) & MET (16%).

Thanks for the info's mate :) Look like we will hold at the moment :).

[Beagle]

Just finished reading a recently issued report by one of the major broking houses in Australasia on NZ's Retirement Village sector.

Nothing really new which have not been discussed and debated ad nauseam here in the Meet, Sum & Oca threads.

Nevertheless, a few key points to note from the report (report goes to their institutional & international client base so bound to have some influence) :

1. Demographics trend continue to provide strong tailwind for long term performance of the sector, population of 75+ to double over next 10 years (250,000 more), and

2. Short term headwinds of increased costs and lower unit resales to adversely impact on profits in 2020/21.

Sensitivities:

1. Increased costs in order of biggest impact - OCA, ARV, RYM, SUM & MET

2. Devaluation of asset values when gearing hits 50% (trigger point for debt concerns) - RYM (14%), SUM (15%), OCA (25%), ARV (26%) & MET (38%).

3. Most highly geared so likely to require capital raising - RYM (40%), SUM (33%), OCA (31%), ARV (27%) & MET (16%).

So often referred to as the reference standard in this sector but its well worth noting that despite the massive reputation and gold standard pricing on the NZX RYM have the slowest average underlying growth rate in the last 5 years. RYM 14%, MET 15%, ARV 16% and SUM 34%. (OCA haven't been around 5 years).

[winner69]

Koalas must be saved

Might impressive village when they open though

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12329843

[Beagle]

Koalas must be saved

Might impressive village when they open though

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12329843

What about the local lizards and skinks ? Seriously, I think Koala's are very special and its devastating that so many were lost in the massive recent bush fires so if there's any risk to the Koala population RYM should maybe build a Koala sanctuary within their village ?

[winner69]

What about the local lizards and skinks ? Seriously, I think Koala's are very special and its devastating that so many were lost in the massive recent bush fires so if there's any risk to the Koala population RYM should maybe build a Koala sanctuary within their village ?

That would be an attraction in itself

Might add a few thousand to the price of the units .....and off course running the sanctuary covered in the fees eh.

[Beagle]

That would be an attraction in itself

Might add a few thousand to the price of the units .....and off course running the sanctuary covered in the fees eh.

Could even have sessions where dementia patients and other residents get to cuddle a Koala...for a fee of course :)
Some coffee shop here in Auckland has an attached cuddle a cat operation where people pay $10 to stroke and cuddle cats.

I have been thinking for quite a while there's money in a Fat Beagle Café where I could own a few Beagle's and charge a $10 entry fee and people could enjoy unlimited patting and petting. Maybe Ryman could open such cafés at their villages and make a fortune ? They need some new interesting innovation that they haven't thought of before.

[Cyclical]

Could even have sessions where dementia patients and other residents get to cuddle a Koala...for a fee of course :)
Some coffee shop here in Auckland has an attached cuddle a cat operation where people pay $10 to stroke and cuddle cats.

I have been thinking for quite a while there's money in a Fat Beagle Café where I could own a few Beagle's and charge a $10 entry fee and people could enjoy unlimited patting and petting. Maybe Ryman could open such cafés at their villages and make a fortune ? They need some new interesting innovation that they haven't thought of before.

Yeah, well it's well know that touch and cuddle is good for the oldies (in fact probably for all of us after the last few weeks). I wonder if Jacinda has some spare time to do a round... Another benefit of your koala sanctuary is that it would be a good driver to get the grand kids to the homes more regularly.

[Gerard]

For those of you that would like more detail, the link below takes you to all the planning application documents for Ryman's Mount Eliza village. On the architectural plans folio are some great artist impressions of what the village will look like in completed form. Certainly an "up market" look and interestingly, there are several "premium" apartments included; floor area up to 250sq/m + balconies + best views. These will no doubt be aimed at the high end potential resident. At least one of the more recent Ryman NZ villages have included premium offerings rather than just the normal "cookie cutter" approach.

P192453-60-70-Kunyung-Road-MOUNT-ELIZA (https://www.mornpen.vic.gov.au/Building-Planning/Planning/Advertised-Planning-Applications/P192453-60-70-Kunyung-Road-MOUNT-ELIZA?BestBetMatch=submissions%20mount%20eliza%7Cd 13b95b2-5146-4b00-9e3e-a80c73739a64%7C4f05f368-ecaa-4a93-b749-7ad6c4867c1f%7Cen-AU)

Resource consent documents and plans of the Karori village can also be found on the Wgtn CC website.

It is anyones guess how retirement village operators will be affected by the economic effects of covid 19. On the one hand, house sales may slow right down (and prices drop) thus making sales of retirement village units also slow down. Any price drop in a surrounding area will be reflected on the unit price (Ryman usually set prices having regard to the house prices in the area around the village). On the other hand, potential residents (often having to make a needs based decision to move to a village) may "meet the market" and buy a retirement unit anyway. As units are often about 2/3's - 3/4 of median house prices, the seller will still free up significant cash. If they have taken a hit on dividend income recently, this may also prove to be an added incentive to downsize and free up cash for replacing "lost" income.

[tomm]

Ryman full year underlying profit of $242 million, up 6.6%

Ryman reports audited full year underlying profit of $242 million, up 6.6%

[Beagle]

Solid result that can easily be understood in normal sized font.

[tomm]

Solid result that can easily be understood in normal sized font.
Just no one has posted here for a while , needed the attention . :))
At the moment , the market is panic and following the trend , when they realized and buffff... off RYM goes..

[macduffy]

Solid result that can easily be understood in normal sized font.

Agreed, Beagle. Companies posting an underlying profit of better than 6.6% in the next year or so will be doing very nicely.

[tomm]

Agreed, Beagle. Companies posting an underlying profit of better than 6.6% in the next year or so will be doing very nicely.
They also noted that despite covid19 effected ,total assets are at $7.6B , you can sum up the math for the share price .

[tomm]

Ryman's revenue rose nearly 11 percent to more than $422m, with growth in new unit sales at a margin of 27 percent.
This contributed to a near 7 percent increase in its underlying profit which was driven by strong performances in Ryman's Melbourne and Auckland villages.
The company will pay a full year dividend of 24.2 cents a share, which is in line with growth in the underlying profit.

[Mr Slothbear]

Cashflows up 12 percent which suggests the difference of around 5% between cashflow increase and underlying profit is the higher costs they faced due to Covid.

Takapuna site they've purchased looks excellent.

Increase in dividend very welcome.

Last few years they've had record occupancy but have not been hitting their own set 15% p/a growth target so I'm not sure why they are not increasing DMF fees or ORA costs slightly to reflect the premium product they provide. They did a phenomal job at protecting residents during this year and every year so I don't see why a small increase to residents isn't warrented.

They have a very very strong pipeline in the works so next couple of years will be good.

[jg8512]

Cashflows up 12 percent which suggests the difference of around 5% between cashflow increase and underlying profit is the higher costs they faced due to Covid.

Takapuna site they've purchased looks excellent.

Increase in dividend very welcome.

Last few years they've had record occupancy but have not been hitting their own set 15% p/a growth target so I'm not sure why they are not increasing DMF fees or ORA costs slightly to reflect the premium product they provide. They did a phenomal job at protecting residents during this year and every year so I don't see why a small increase to residents isn't warrented.

They have a very very strong pipeline in the works so next couple of years will be good.

development margin was high too, and probably will be lower (and within their target range) in future; so would have been even further from the 15% target without that.

On the analysts call : 1. the CFO (I think it was he) said they incurred $26m in COVID related costs which they had not expected to incur. 2. Gordy said that in January, before COVID, they were expecting to achieve the 15% target in FY20

[tomm]

development margin was high too, and probably will be lower (and within their target range) in future; so would have been even further from the 15% target without that.

On the analysts call : 1. the CFO (I think it was he) said they incurred $26m in COVID related costs which they had not expected to incur. 2. Gordy said that in January, before COVID, they were expecting to achieve the 15% target in FY20
Exellence investment in my opinion at the current shares price.

[Gerard]

I think the care side of the business has (increasingly) has seen squeezed margins, and this is affecting their 15% profit increase target. Cost inflation has well outstripped DHB funding increases in recent years, and covid has (and will) added to that in the immediate past. Yesterday, Gordy said that the industry had incurred about $80m in covid related costs but only been reimbursed by $26m. He said that equated to 2 cups of coffee per resident per day!

i am surprised Ryman haven't moved to a ORA arrangement for the care side of the business (in addition to serviced apartments) similar to Arvida & Oceania. Increasing the DMF on the lifestyle side of the villages to further cross subsidise the care division would, I believe, lose one of their key points of difference, marketing wise.

I suspect covid related costs will accelerate the further demise of many stand alone care facilities that don't have lifestyle units as part of their operations.

[tomm]

The full-year dividend was lifted to 24.2 cents per share, inline with growth in underlying profit and our long-standing policyof paying out 50 percent of underlying profits to shareholders.

[macduffy]

RYM's Victorian villages don't appear to be impacted by the "selected suburbs" being locked down in Melbourne.

[tomm]

Ryman Healthcare Limited Share Scheme Information 2020

All-employee share schemeTo participate in the all-employee scheme, each staff member will contribute a minimum of$500 (and up to a maximum amount of $10,000) towards the on-market purchase of Rymanshares. To assist the staff member to purchase more shares, the Company will advance aninterest-free loan equal to the employee’s contribution towards the share purchase (the‘financial assistance’).For example, if a staff member contributes $1,000 to purchase shares, then the Company willlend a further $1,000. This means the staff member is able to purchase $2,000 of shares inRyman. The loan is repayable when the staff member leaves the Company. Shares purchasedunder the scheme are held in the employee’s name and are not subject to any restrictions.The total financial assistance provided by the Company for staff share purchases under thescheme will be up to $1.5 million over the next year. The all-employee scheme has been offeredsince 2012.This financial assistance will be provided to the following staff members to enable them toacquire the Company’s shares on-market:

[macduffy]

Seems a pretty standard Employee Share Scheme, tomm. Designed, of course, to encourage a climate of participation and ownership. There's plenty of them around!

[tomm]

Seems a pretty standard Employee Share Scheme, tomm. Designed, of course, to encourage a climate of participation and ownership. There's plenty of them around!
I was curious to look at the share trading, look like it has been blocked by both end for this reason for a week now. I think they are probably try to hold the price down and will have a big jump very soon.

[winner69]

I was curious to look at the share trading, look like it has been blocked by both end for this reason for a week now. I think they are probably try to hold the price down and will have a big jump very soon.

I very much doubt whether that staff scheme had any bearing at all on recent trading ...if that’s what you were saying.

[tomm]

I very much doubt whether that staff scheme had any bearing at all on recent trading ...if that’s what you were saying.
Not bearing and bulls either, that's what I mean.
Put a big block BUY @12.70 and a few big block Sales up to @13.50.

[Mr Slothbear]

Nice dividend paid out yesterday. One of the few that hasn’t been cut and actually still growing.

have always thought employee share scheme a good idea.

[tomm]

Nice dividend paid out yesterday. One of the few that hasn’t been cut and actually still growing.

have always thought employee share scheme a good idea.
RYM delivered a better outcome from what they said. Great company to hold and invest.

[winner69]

At least they’ve kept the virus out

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/357372

[BlackPeter]

At least they’ve kept the virus out

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/357372

They did, so far. However - never praise the day before night falls ...

[winner69]

They did, so far. However - never praise the day before night falls ...

Yep should have added 'yet'

If it does get in they might learn something they can put into practice over here when the virus returns here

[tomm]

Yep should have added 'yet'

If it does get in they might learn something they can put into practice over here when the virus returns here
Ryman is a very strong business to date despite the hit of covid-19 ,it sailed throught the worst, the Sp today is a bargain for investors.

[BlackPeter]

Ryman is a very strong business to date despite the hit of covid-19 ,it sailed throught the worst, the Sp today is a bargain for investors.

Just ramping - or otherwise how do you measure that?

[tomm]

Just ramping - or otherwise how do you measure that?
Please check their financial:
The full-year dividend was lifted to 24.2 cents per share, inline with growth in underlying profit and our long-standing policy of paying out 50 percent of underlying profits to shareholders.

[Dlownz]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122365663/ryman-told-to-fix-building-faults-in-new-havelock-north-100m-retirement-village?cid=app-android
Not good news and that's only half of it.

[winner69]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122365663/ryman-told-to-fix-building-faults-in-new-havelock-north-100m-retirement-village?cid=app-android
Not good news and that's only half of it.

Typical NZ building site ...no worries

[Dlownz]

There's alot more going on there than meets the eye.

[BlackPeter]

Please check their financial:
The full-year dividend was lifted to 24.2 cents per share, inline with growth in underlying profit and our long-standing policy of paying out 50 percent of underlying profits to shareholders.

Amazing. Dividend 24.2 cents on a $12.71 share ... this is a dividend yield of 1.9%. Hardly stellar. If that's a bargain for you, than I don't want to know what you call overpriced :):

Sure - you can always hope for further SP rises to compensate for the meagre dividend, but the dearer the share the unlikelier is further rising potential and the harder any fall due to e.g. dropping property prices or Covid-19 escaping or both.

It is all about risks and rewards ... I see with Ryman in the current situation the likelihood for risks materialising higher than the likelihood of further rewards. Obviously - they are a great company, but as many other great companies they look these days a bit dear to me ...

On the other hand .... given that every Tom, Dick and Harry together with the taxi drivers and the shoeshine boy collective seem to drive the game these days ... what possibly could go wrong? I guess given that the market values even bankrupt companies like Hertz at several hundred million (USD that is) market cap - than a solid company like Ryman clearly must be worth much more than the 6.3 billion (NZD) market cap punters are happy to pay today..

So - a bargain it is ... I am just too scared to buy :scared:;

[tomm]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122365663/ryman-told-to-fix-building-faults-in-new-havelock-north-100m-retirement-village?cid=app-android
Not good news and that's only half of it.
Not a big deal of 100mil for Ryman , you sell and I will buy. :)
Ryman’s corporate affairs manager David King told Stuff work had stopped in affected areas but the company was “working through the issues with the council collaboratively, and we will resolve any issues”.
“We are still targeting to be able to move our first residents in around September 21. The council is aware of these dates, and we are working with them,” he said.
“The village represents a $100 million investment in Hawke’s Bay and will provide critical healthcare infrastructure for the area, as well as an economic boost at a difficult time. We turned our villages into safe havens during Covid-19 emergency, and they are built to provide safety and security for residents which we think will be even more important in the years ahead,” King said.

[macduffy]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122365663/ryman-told-to-fix-building-faults-in-new-havelock-north-100m-retirement-village?cid=app-android
Not good news and that's only half of it.

So, what's the other half, Diownz?

[BlackPeter]

Not a big deal of 100mil for Ryman , you sell and I will buy. :)
Ryman’s corporate affairs manager David King told Stuff work had stopped in affected areas but the company was “working through the issues with the council collaboratively, and we will resolve any issues”.
“We are still targeting to be able to move our first residents in around September 21. The council is aware of these dates, and we are working with them,” he said.
“The village represents a $100 million investment in Hawke’s Bay and will provide critical healthcare infrastructure for the area, as well as an economic boost at a difficult time. We turned our villages into safe havens during Covid-19 emergency, and they are built to provide safety and security for residents which we think will be even more important in the years ahead,” King said.


The notice listed 12 matters that did not meet Building Act requirements, including bricks in the walls not sitting correctly on foundations, and the cavity between the framing and the exterior walls being too small.

It also mentioned flashings that had not been fitted, vent covers being installed upside down and trenches dug that undermined foundations.

On June 26 the council told Ryman to cease work on exterior cladding and groundwork and to have the faults fixed by July 24 or it may face legal action.

Another visit by building control officers on July 8 revealed that timber wall framing in 42 units had not been erected straight enough. The council told Ryman to have this fixed by August 10.

I see what you mean - all peanuts for Ryman, though wondering whether they hired Metlifecares building contractors? I heard they are a great team to screw buildings up ....

But hey - how hard can it be to e.g. rectify the too small distance between bricks and framing or to straighten the framing? Just push the stuff away and start new. At the end it is just money - right? Does not stop a serious investor to back up the truck ... can't have too many :t_up:.

[tomm]

I see what you mean - all peanuts for Ryman, though wondering whether they hired Metlifecares building contractors? I heard they are a great team to screw buildings up ....

But hey - how hard can it be to e.g. rectify the too small distance between bricks and framing or to straighten the framing? Just push the stuff away and start new. At the end it is just money - right? Does not stop a serious investor to back up the truck ... can't have too many :t_up:.
There will be always some one stuff it up on the way of a business or any businesses whether it's a big pie or small potato. It doesn't nessesary to be accounted for the sp ( it is just temporarily once happened) and how they correcting and keeping the business moving forward to achieve for the greater will reflecting the sp. I am sure the one whom in charged will face serious misconduct behind close door.

[winner69]

The one built in Kilbirnie years ago was like that ....scaffold goes up regularly so the tradies with their buckets of sealant and stuff can do some ‘redecorating’

Doesn’t seem to have them back

[Dlownz]

I've known about this for weeks. It's a shambles out at Havelock.

[winner69]

See they want to increase the pool for Directors fees by 26% but not saying very much why and not releasing the report.

Greedy people ...esp seeingbthevworld is in turmoil

[limmy]

RYM virtual AGM is currently on line.

[tango]

Bring on the dancing girls. The presentation is slow and boring and the jokes are badly delivered

[limmy]

Yes, it's slow
Bring on the dancing girls. The presentation is slow and boring and the jokes are badly delivered

[macduffy]

Yes, it's slow

Never mind. Shareprice is up.

:)

[tango]

Never mind. Shareprice is up.

:)

Yes. That’s what’s important

I have been spoilt by some really good annual meetings

[Jaa]

Very poor governance and leadership from Ryman in trying to increase director's fees by 26% to $1.4 million after the company pocketed $14m from the government's wage subsidy scheme. They have shelved the plan for now after the Shareholder's Association voiced disapproval. Good on them.

They should return the wage subsidy money too. Ryman paid an increased final dividend in July and cash flows were up 12% to March 31.

Not good from one our largest companies.

[Mr Slothbear]

Very poor governance and leadership from Ryman in trying to increase director's fees by 26% to $1.4 million after the company pocketed $14m from the government's wage subsidy scheme. They have shelved the plan for now after the Shareholder's Association voiced disapproval. Good on them.

They should return the wage subsidy money too. Ryman paid an increased final dividend in July and cash flows were up 12% to March 31.

Not good from one our largest companies.


whilst I 100% agree about the directors fees and the directors really are both overly opportunistic and have bad timing I strongly disagree regarding wage subsidy. Ryman have incurred significantly higher costs due to covid and have been exemplery in terms of how they’ve managed things with lockdown etc.. you’ll note they’re the countries largest retirement village provider but have had no infections thus far. Mostly luck probably but a decent amount probably from good management.

I fail to see how an increased dividend should deprive them of something everyone has been entitled to. Hypothetically if they had a terrible business dur to poor decisions should they then be deserving of the wage subsidy because they couldn’t increase their dividend or had declining cash flows?

[macduffy]

Headline in BusinessDesk suggests that RYM will ask shareholders to reinvest dividends. "Paywalled" article.

[Mr Slothbear]

Thanks Macduffy thats some food for thought. Next divvy isn't till december. If that rumor came to fruition i'd have no problem reinvesting my dividend if it was at todays price.


https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/122430601/ryman-healthcare-shareholders-question-the-scale-of-village-development---plans

Another artcle from the herald

[Brain]

Ryman Healthcare withdrew its motion to ask shareholders for an increase in director fees after opposition from the New Zealand Shareholders’ Association.
It is not appropriate at this time,” NZSA chief executive Michael Midgley told NBR.
“Come back next year and ask, and then we can see how the world looks – how the bottom line of the enterprise looks. Pure pragmatism is what’s called for. We’re not hearing this from other companies – everyone’s tightening their belts.”

[Jaa]

whilst I 100% agree about the directors fees and the directors really are both overly opportunistic and have bad timing I strongly disagree regarding wage subsidy. Ryman have incurred significantly higher costs due to covid and have been exemplery in terms of how they’ve managed things with lockdown etc.. you’ll note they’re the countries largest retirement village provider but have had no infections thus far. Mostly luck probably but a decent amount probably from good management.

I fail to see how an increased dividend should deprive them of something everyone has been entitled to. Hypothetically if they had a terrible business dur to poor decisions should they then be deserving of the wage subsidy because they couldn’t increase their dividend or had declining cash flows?

Costs are irrelevant to the wage subsidy scheme. I am sure their customers would expect nothing less considering the premium fees charged.

The criteria was simple, 30% loss or expected loss of revenue over a 30 day period with the stated purpose of protecting jobs. It was a high trust scheme to get money into the economy fast and to save jobs. Reliant on people doing the right thing.

If you need to call in an accountancy firm to go village by village to see how much corporate welfare you can grab and in the process deprive other far worthier businesses and causes you have lost the plot. To do so while increasing revenue, cash flows, profits and payments to directors and shareholders is morally bankrupt.

Here are just 5 of their 43 subsidiaries that I bothered to check.


BOB OWENS RETIREMENT VILLAGE LIMITED Wage Subsidy 151 $852,079.20
CHARLES UPHAM RETIREMENT VILLAGE LIMITED Wage Subsidy 151 $897,352.80
DIANA ISAAC RETIREMENT VILLAGE LIMITED Wage Subsidy 151 $874,716.00
EDMUND HILLARY RETIREMENT VILLAGE LIMITED Wage Subsidy 225 $1,343,973.60
RYMAN NAPIER LIMITED Wage Subsidy 136 $780,590.40

Legally it may be ok but it is clearly against the spirit of the scheme and a big black mark against their leadership team.

[Mr Slothbear]

Surprised no one has commented on this already. Tom brownrig moving into construction innovation role and looking externally for a new construction manager looks like its fairly strongly related to the recent building and consent issues they’ve been having.

shoring things up a bit with this move?

[kiora]

These Mr SB
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122365663/ryman-told-to-fix-building-faults-in-new-havelock-north-100m-retirement-village
Not easily fixed ?

[Dlownz]

These Mr SB
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122365663/ryman-told-to-fix-building-faults-in-new-havelock-north-100m-retirement-village
Not easily fixed ?

I'm not quite sure how you fixed walls bowing under the weight of the roof which are too heavy for the walls they designed.
Bricks have been put on wrong and overhangs are incorrect, foundations compromised it's truly a mess out there.
I have been involved with a few villages been built and this site is the worst one I have seen by far. Changed my mind about investing in ryman just due to the fact these house could be like matchsticks if a earthquake hit. I'd love to get there buildings earthquake rated.

[Mr Slothbear]

yes Kiora,

Dlownz, No i’m saying it looks like either hes messed up and getting moved closer to the exit (unlikely) or there has been and under staffing or not appropriate consideration / planning / oversight which looks like they are acknowledging with this promotion and new key hire to make sure that situation doesn’t happen again.

[Dlownz]

yes Kiora,

Dlownz, No i’m saying it looks like either hes messed up and getting moved closer to the exit (unlikely) or there has been and under staffing or not appropriate consideration / planning / oversight which looks like they are acknowledging with this promotion and new key hire to make sure that situation doesn’t happen again.
A few things going on at this site.
Unrealistic time frames.
Not thinking about the next person coming in. I could go on.
I have heard that they are 25 to 30 percent over budget for each build.
They are trying to cut cost on everything and it's now costing them big time.
There own construction company has not proven to do a very good job.

[Dlownz]

And the layout is the worst I have seen EVER it's like coronation Street. Overpriced and a very substandard build.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/kohimarama-residents-warn-ryman-village-smashes-auckland-councils-unitary-plan/AEZQAGJU4WGQV5E6MDYX4KZD2E/

Paywalled. Neighbors getting very hot under the collar about Ryman's proposed Kohimarama development.

[Zaphod]

Reading the article, the crux of their argument is that Ryman's design pushes (they use the emote term, smashes) through the 11m height restriction for the zone, and that this will provide the precedent required to enable all residential zones of the same type to have taller limits.

From the supplied quotes, I do not think these residents understand how a unitary or district plan works. The 11m stipulation for that zone does not represent that maximum height limit, instead it represents a height under which a building would be automatically permissible (assuming it meets the other criteria). Anything exceeding this will require further analysis and a resource consent. If Ryman are successful, this does not necessarily create a precedent for other areas of Auckland with the same zoning as applications for development will be evaluated (amongst other things) on the basis of the surrounding area.

Building recession planes etc. will still be in place to protect the surrounding residents from overshadowing etc.

[winner69]

Reading the article, the crux of their argument is that Ryman's design pushes (they use the emote term, smashes) through the 11m height restriction for the zone, and that this will provide the precedent required to enable all residential zones of the same type to have taller limits.

From the supplied quotes, I do not think these residents understand how a unitary or district plan works. The 11m stipulation for that zone does not represent that maximum height limit, instead it represents a height under which a building would be automatically permissible (assuming it meets the other criteria). Anything exceeding this will require further analysis and a resource consent. If Ryman are successful, this does not necessarily create a precedent for other areas of Auckland with the same zoning as applications for development will be evaluated (amongst other things) on the basis of the surrounding area.

Building recession planes etc. will still be in place to protect the surrounding residents from overshadowing etc.

Of course NIMBYs don’t understand unitary plans / zoning and all that

Hope they lose the sun and their views ...Kohi NIMBYs are the worst

[couta1]

Ryman are the masters of working their way through the issues and coming out with a bunch of roses on the other side, SUM others are stuck forever up Boulcott St.

[Bjauck]

And the layout is the worst I have seen EVER it's like coronation Street. Overpriced and a very substandard build.

Coronation Street style terraces would surpass the standards of many NZ residential developments and houses. They are solid and well constructed with access to both the front and back for refuse collection and servicing etc. Terraced houses of Coronation Street standard today are usually insulated, double glazed and centrally heated. The party walls let through less sound than the thinner walls found in many NZ home units or apartments. Fibre and broadband service many UK suburbs and "coronation street" suburbs have good access to public transport, shopping and parks. In addition the affordability of housing to income level of housing of that size and quality would make many an aspiring Auckland home-owner weep.

There is worse housing in both NZ and the UK than "Coronation Street" style terraced houses.

[Bjauck]

Of course NIMBYs don’t understand unitary plans / zoning and all that

Hope they lose the sun and their views ...Kohi NIMBYs are the worst I guess Kohi Nimbys are more likely to be professionals who know how to try to fight when their amenities, rights and right to peaceful enjoyment of their purchased property - as it was zoned when they purchased their properties - are taken away without adequate compensation.

[Soolaimon]

Share price has been knocked around a bit the last 2 days..Time to accumulate a few??
disc holding for a loooong time.

[macduffy]

Share price has been knocked around a bit the last 2 days..Time to accumulate a few??
disc holding for a loooong time.

Yes, I salted a few more away today.

:cool:

[Mr Slothbear]

Nice one macduffy.

guess you could say I’m well salted as even after selling half my rym holding back in Jan in the high 16’s it remains 50% of my listed equities

[winner69]

Jeez - Ryman spent $50 million on pandemic response to protect residents and staff since January 2020 ...no covid amongst 12,000 residents and 6,100 staff

Great response and profits don't really matter in times of disasters

And still made heaps

Well done Ryman

[winner69]

Suppose after burning through $300m cash in the last 6 months it's a good time to have a bond issue

At least have enough cash to keep paying those divies

[winner69]

Ryman half year npat up 13% to $212m on pcp

Pretty impressive in light of covid impacts.

[Biscuit]

Ryman half year npat up 14% to $212m on pcp

.....

reported profit up 12.8%. Underlying profit down 14.2%.

[winner69]

reported profit up 12.8%. Underlying profit down 14.2%.

Yes, my roundings a bit off

Still impressive result seeing there were 100 plus less new sales than last year

[Biscuit]

Yes, my roundings a bit off

Still impressive result seeing there were 100 plus less new sales than last year

Yes, minor details, Ryman is a quality company. I am amazed how much they spent on covid protection but money well spent.

[Beagle]

Ryman are an excellent company with an outstanding track record and very promising growth in the years ahead. From an ESG perspective they really look after their residents well and their occupation right agreement percentages are the fairest in the industry. They have a great name and reputation and have done well to match the NZX50 index for the last 5 years. The report covers a very difficult period for the company and they have done well to cope with the challenges presented. Historical underlying eps for FY20 was 48.4 cps. I think the underlying profit down 14% (~ $15m) is a good result against a backdrop of ~$50m of covid direct costs (most of which would have been in this reporting period) and the indirect flow on effects of interruptions to their development, sales, refurbishment and resales programs.

Its really hard to try and get a handle on the forecast (management are not giving any guidance) so one by default is probably best to try and get a quick handle on value based on historical underlying eps. 31 times last year's underlying eps looks fully priced to me but all the best to shareholders and I am sure in the long run this will continue to be a rewarding investment.

[winner69]

in Stuff

Chairman David Kerr said the board had “quite a lengthy discussion” about whether to pay a dividend after taking the wage subsidy.

The wage subsidy scheme was “a great initiative” by the Government, that meant Ryman could continue to employ all its staff, and take on new staff, he said.

Ryman’s board believed that because the company had spent about three times the wage subsidy on Covid-19 measures, it “balanced out” and was appropriate to pay a dividend, he said.

“The board decided that was the right call to make,” Kerr said.

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123447122/booming-housing-market-lifts-ryman-healthcare-firsthalf-profit-13

They definitely did the right thing and put the money to use benefiting staff, (not shareholders) as did many other companies.

[winner69]

What do people think about this RAD stuff

Refundable Accomodation Deposits

[Beagle]

I haven't had the time to look into it mate.

Maybe one of the newcomers to this forum could start to make a name for themselves as a worthwhile contributor and do some research / digging with Ryman and share their findings while I am busy digging out information on another company in this sector tomorrow.

[Snow Leopard]

What do people think about this RAD stuff

Refundable Accomodation Deposits

Been part of the Ryman landscape for years, no big deal.

[Greekwatchdog]

Ryman paying it back now. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/ryman-healthcare-to-repay-142m-covid-wage-subsidy-move-follows-three-others/HXQLV6F5AVFAPCGW55AMWMJHYM/

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars latest sector views.


Oceania Healthcare OCA 1.32 1.80 13.4 20.0 OUTPERFORM
Arvida ARV 1.70 2.15 13.9 21.4 OUTPERFORM
Ryman Healthcare RYM 15.00 14.10 24.6 44.7 NEUTRAL
Summerset SUM 12.05 13.25 18.5 35.2 NEUTRAL

[Carpenterjoe]

Is anyone else keeping an eye on the rym chart? seems some lines are being tested/broken!

[winner69]

Most trusted brands

[Joshuatree]

Ryman Healthcare buys new Essendon site

(https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372541)Ryman reports audited full year underlying profit of $224.4 (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372539)

[Joshuatree]

Ryman Healthcare plans new NZ retirement villages (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372543)





Ryman Group CEO announces plans to stand down (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372540)

S/P down a tad. Sharetrader very slow for me today ,anyone else? .Addon sharetrader fast and snappy now but investors asleep at the wheel:sleep:

[Mr Slothbear]

So just read through the results, overall fine considering Covid.

I wonder if Gordon stepping down is in small part related to not achieving the 15% underlying growth for several years in a row.

also confused on the coburg site sale due to changed market conditions?

[dobby41]

S/P down a tad. Sharetrader very slow for me today ,anyone else? .Addon sharetrader fast and snappy now but investors asleep at the wheel:sleep:

A 'tad - down 3.6% at the moment

[Habits]

For Bars latest sector views.


Oceania Healthcare OCA 1.32 1.80 13.4 20.0 OUTPERFORM
Arvida ARV 1.70 2.15 13.9 21.4 OUTPERFORM
Ryman Healthcare RYM 15.00 14.10 24.6 44.7 NEUTRAL
Summerset SUM 12.05 13.25 18.5 35.2 NEUTRAL

They are wrong IMO all will underperform. The sector is not the goldmine and staple of all investor portfolios any longer.

[Panda-NZ-]

The income is mostly untaxed, and it will depend on the property market.

[Baa_Baa]

They are wrong IMO all will underperform. The sector is not the goldmine and staple of all investor portfolios any longer.

Do go on, don't hold back on us.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/gordon-macleod-to-quit-ryman-healthcare-record-sales-yield-60-profit-rise/FPW5HV2V4P75F7EGYV7OCAUBQY/

Paywalled. I understand Jarden have it rated as SELL with a price target in the low 12's, sorry can't remember where exactly.

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars update this morning.
UNDERPERFORM
Ryman Healthcare's (RYM) FY21 result came in below expectations with annuity EBITDA of NZ$168m, down -9% on FY20.
Net debt again increased by more than we had anticipated, up NZ$546m versus FY20 driven by negative cash flow from
ongoing operations, a first as far as we are aware, and higher capex. We continue to view RYM as well positioned to grow
annuity EBITDA quickly from here, and believe that cash generation will increase materially in FY22 as its heavy investment
in Australia over recent years begins to pay off. However, at ~55x trailing EV/annuity EBITDA and ~47x forward EV/annuity
EBITDA we believe that many years of strong growth is already discounted and currently see the risk reward as
unattractive. RYM is now valued at a meaningful premium to both its historical average and peers despite having the lowest
annuity EBITDA growth in the sector and the highest leverage, on our estimates. We downgrade to UNDERPERFORM.
What's changed?
Debt rising faster than expected; FY22 likely substantially better but from a lower base
RYM reported FY21 net debt of NZ$2,254m, up from NZ$1,707m at FY20 and NZ$2,109m in 1H21. When looking at cash
generation we separate between cash flow from ongoing operations and cash recovery of capex through new sales. On a three year
trailing basis RYM's cash recovery of capex declined to 44% (48% in FY20) against our expectations of a small improvement.
Additionally, according to our estimates FY21 was the first time RYM had negative cash flow from ongoing operations. This is likely to
be to a large extent driven by COVID-19 related excess inventory and other costs, and we expect a reversal in FY22. However, we
expect net debt to continue to increase in FY22 and beyond despite reduced build rate assumptions.
Downgrade to UNDERPERFORM
We downgrade RYM to UNDERPERFORM reflecting; (1) demanding valuation versus peers and historical averages, (2) our decreased
confidence in a sharp annuity earnings rebound, and (3) rising debt levels (that will likely continue) which we believe will reduces
RYM's flexibility to meaningfully lift its build rate in the medium term.

[winner69]

Salt Funds have Ryman as their largest short in their Long Short Fund

[Ggcc]

When will SUM and RYM have the same SP. not too long to go now

[Beagle]

When will SUM and RYM have the same SP. not too long to go now

Not long to go as predicted by some old mutt on here a few years ago, (met with widespread disbelief at the time). Some other posters old wives tale about ~ 50% price relativity has been well and truly debunked. "In the long run the market is a weighing machine, not a voting machine".

[winner69]

Not long to go as predicted by some old mutt on here a few years ago, (met with widespread disbelief at the time).

Maybe OCA might catch up as well

[Ggcc]

Not long to go as predicted by some old mutt on here a few years ago, (met with widespread disbelief at the time).
Hey I agreed, but backed out of a bet that had 12 months to go for me to prove my theory. It was mentioned it would not happen ever………..

[JohnnyTheHorse]

The key question is has sentiment in the sector turned? SUM is the last one holding up strong, but will it last?

[bull....]

ryman leading the way of the retirement stocks ? it used to be the leader in price

[Beagle]

In answer to your questions I opine as follows. For many, many years I have been calling RYM hugely overpriced, eg just one of many posts in 2013 and 2014 #1836 from May 2014, just one example
Ryman have had a great run, their SP is up circa 500% in the last 5 years and at $8.30, even after the recent SP correction they trade on 35.17 times last years underlying earnings of 23.6 cps. As Craig's top analyst correctly pointed out, growth slowed in the second half and their projected growth in build rates are not what they once were. A further slowing of EPS growth or an increase in interest rates could see that "market darling" PE come under considerable pressure. On a balanced perspective I see considerably more downside potential than anything else as its already priced for absolute perfection in my opinion. Share split would make no difference as a 35 PE in a stock whose prospects for growth appear to be slowing is a 35 PE no matter which way you slice and dice it. Better prospects for yeild and capital growth elsewhere.

For many years more recently it has been woefully underperforming the NZX50, up just 45% in the last 5 years against NZX50 up 80%. We are now starting to see the serious process, (the last 5 years has just been a warm-up) of more reality be applied to the metrics of this former market darling which long ago lost the services of arguably one of the greatest CEO's of this generation in Simon Challies. Gordon was never going to be able to fill Simon's shoes and the gloss starting coming off this story many years ago.

By contrast OCA has performed in line with the NZX50 overall since it listed (which is a pretty good result considering they are in the early to mid stages of a transformation program for their business model) SUM have hugely outperformed the NZX50 index and ARV have performed in line with the NZX50 so in summary I would say that the decline in RYM is a RYM specific issue and I think it still has a fairly long way to go. I think within a month or two or perhaps as little as a week or two SUM's share price will overtake RYM and it deserves too.

P.S. Jarden lowers its price target even further to $11.60 and retains SELL rating.

The S&P/NZX 50 Index fell 10.61 points, or 0.1%, to 12,449.00. Within the index, 14 stocks fell, 26 rose and five were unchanged. The retirement village operator fell another 5.3% to $13.15 today, bringing its decline since Friday’s weak result to 8.5%. Investors are worried about Ryman’s mounting debt which rose by $540m to $2.25 billion in the year ended March, taking gearing to 44.3%. Forsyth Barr analysts downgraded the stock, giving it an ‘underperform’ rating and slashing 11% off their target price. “Ryman is now valued at a meaningful premium to both its historical average and peers despite having the lowest annuity ebitda growth in the sector and the highest leverage,” they said. The analysts said rising debt levels will likely continue and will reduce Ryman’s ability to lift its build rate in the medium term. Jarden’s equity research team had already given the stock a ‘sell’ rating, but also trimmed their target price to $11.60 today. The stock was overvalued due to its “stretched balance sheet that acts as a natural constraint on debt funded growth” and “unappealing absolute value with 16% downside potential”.

[Gerard]

Whilst RYM has "under performed" the NZX50 in recent years, that needs to be put in context. The performance spreadsheet that another member posted on here some years ago (thank you), shows (updated), that over 20 years RYM has had a compounded share price increase of 20.25% p.a. Sure, the last 5 years of price performance are soft (12.8% p.a.) but that could be because the previous 5 years price increase was spectacular, and ran well ahead of company performance.

The current dividend yield to market price is very low, but anyone that has been in for some years will probably be enjoying accumulated dividends that far exceed their initial capital cost of the shares. RYM pointed out that a $1billion in dividends has been paid out since 1999 but only $25m was raised upon listing.

I think the Challies positive v Macleod negative impact is overstated. Gordon has been in the role just on 4 years, and yes, during that time profit performance has lagged the magic 15% p.a. profit increase that is a stated goal of RYM. Profits made now actually have their genesis some years back when Simon was calling the shots and certainly, from my perspective, too many complicated and difficult sites with large apartment buildings have been built in succession. This has meant a much slower cash conversion at these sites v town house type developments which tie up far less capital as the build on the site progresses.

Theres no doubt that in comparison to SUM & OCA the RYM price/NTA is much higher and therefore the potential for price downside exists. As Beagle points out Jarden have a price target of $11.60. Craigs have a target of $15.52 based on $297m uNPAT FE22. (less care beds, more units sold). Certainly, the year has started well, with all-time record sales in April, and a 5% lift in pricing for units. Further covid disruption (such as in Melbourne today) cannot be ruled out which will affect RYM in particular. This year's RYM result was the first time in 19 years, they have not delivered a record profit. Neither did SUM or OCA.

I note 5 RYM directors have bought shares in the past few days. If they were selling, or indeed, not even buying, then I would be far more nervous about long-term prospects.

Disc: Holding RYM, SUM, OCA

[Beagle]

Broken down through the 200 day MA too. From a fundamental perspective they continue to look super expensive relative to their peers and technically the chart looks quite dreadful.
I find it much easier to make money on shares in an uptrend....(as in swimming with the incoming tide rather than swimming against an outgoing tide). I think any of the listed alternatives offer alternatives that are far more compelling. Disc: Hold OCA and ARV.

[Lease]

One of the directors spent over $3M buying his own company shares!

$3M!!!! I think even as a RYM director, it's not a small amount of money and this guy must be extremely bullish on RYM.

Disc: Hold RYM, SUM, OCA

[Ggcc]

14 cents between SUM share price and RYM. Inevitable that SUM will overtake RYM this year in SP. 2 cents in it now. We may see it happen today…..

[jg8512]

14 cents between SUM share price and RYM. Inevitable that SUM will overtake RYM this year in SP. 2 cents in it now. We may see it happen today…..

yes this year; in fact, today.

[Onion]

yes this year; in fact, today.

Goodbye to the old Couta ratio -- wasn't that 2:1, RYM:OCA?

[Ggcc]

Well done holders. I sold out of SUM some time back just before covid crisis. Used those funds to top up OCA for about 65 cent average

[winner69]

Goodbye to the old Couta ratio -- wasn't that 2:1, RYM:OCA?

Maybe not goodbye yet ..... the Couta theorem has not been disproved yet - you may recall it was a 'revert to the mean' theory - in this case the SUM share price REVERTS to 50% of the RYM share price (50% being the long term average pre 2020). It was never that on a particular day SUM would be 50% of RYM but would revert to 50% as time moved on.

So give it time - the theory could still be relevant

Interesting the rise to 100% has happened since arly last year and mainly because of a rerating up of SUM and rerating down of RYM

Financially both RYM and SUM have performed about the same - Underlying EPS for both down about 7% and Book Value for both UP about 20% (RYM sightly better than SUM)

But SUM's PE ratio has gone from 19 to 30 while RYM's PE has fallen slightly from 34 to 28

SUM's P/B Ratio has increased from 1.8 to 2.2 but RYM's P?B has fallen from 3.6 to 2,2

Spooky that RYM and SUM value about the same by the market

So its all about perception - both performing financially about the same but SUM perceived to be better (sentiment)



And we all know what can happen to sentiment - so don't discard Couta's theorem just yet

[winner69]

You can see the $ effect of re-rating below (in particular of RYM)

The impact of RYM's P/B ratio falling from 3.6 to 2.2 has impacted share price by $7.28 since Dec 2019 ...OUCH. If the re-rating hadn't occurred the RYM share price would be over $20 now (and bear in mind financially they have been performing in line with sector peers)

SUM's slight re-rating up from 1.8 to 2.2 added $2.25 to share price

[Beagle]

I have stated all along that what matters is earnings and a number of times over the years I have predicted that one day SUM will overtake RYM's share price and so it has come to pass.
The theorem espoused by a former poster never had any basis in investment metrics and was predicated upon nothing more than RYM's reputation relative to SUM's, (popularity).
Forbar have SUM on a forward underlying PE in the low 20's.

In the long run the market is a weighing machine, not a voting machine, (Ben Graham), and you will seldom see a better example of that coming to pass with the way these two's price relativity has changed in recent years.

[Lescy]

Local Chch news about their Park Tce development which is still in consenting stage. Adjustments needed to plans to receive resource consent. This development sits on sites which have been cleared post-quake.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/125373616/ryman-agrees-to-rework-large-retirement-village-design-after-neighbour-backlash

[silu]

Retirement giant Ryman Healthcare smacked down in Australia, state rejects $200m project
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/retirement-giant-ryman-healthcare-smacked-down-in-australia-state-rejects-200m-project/R56KVXTZLXQTSAHUYMOJGQMVP4/

article of interest. I only hold SUM in that sector nowadays

[winner69]

Sales are booming at Ryman


“We’ve had a record start to the year, with cash receipts of $403 million in the first quarter, up 82% on the COVID-impacted first quarter of last year,’’ Mr MacLeod said

Last two quarters best Gordon has seen in his 15 years there

[Beagle]

Gordy hasn't been the boss for 15 years. CFO for much of that time, not CEO. The magic left this company when Simon Challis left. They've failed to meet their 15% annual growth rate almost every year since he left.

Good market information though. SUM also seeing record new and resales, bodes well for other companies in this sector (OCA and ARV).

[winner69]

Apparently shareholders expressed frustration at languishing share price at the ASM

Chairman Kerr et al sort of said the market just doesn’t get it.

One even suggested Kerr should step down …I like that shareholder

[winner69]

I see Director Bell was re-re-elected …but only got 77% of votes cast

Appleby got even less

[Mr Slothbear]

Apparently shareholders expressed frustration at languishing share price at the ASM

Chairman Kerr et al sort of said the market just doesn’t get it.

One even suggested Kerr should step down …I like that shareholder


i watched the entire meeting.

my thoughts

i think part of the reason Gordy is stepping down is not hitting the 15% growth target.

the board and Kerr and very clearly very intent on meeting this 15% growth target.

i think the candor they showed alluding to the fact there was not enough work put into the pipeline in 2016/17 was good to acknowledge causing the lower growth of the last couple of years.

i think Kerr is one of the best chairman i know and many of his responses were justified given a couple of the questions were pretty stupid imo. Especially the one asking for share dilution for a capitl rise. He did very well to politely brush that one off

Many not impressed at one of the directors very low shareholding which I agree with, think that was Bell.

also not much appreciation for jo appleyards lack of commercial acumen, also something I would concur with as she seemed like she was just there for ESG..

overall a very good meeting and very refreshing to hear the 15% target reaffirmed with such vigor.

also interesting to note theres still plenty of further price adjustments yet to flow through after the last year of huge property price increases

[silu]

fwiw a friend of mine just came back from Melbourne and visited her grandmother at one of their facilities in Palmerston North. Her experience shared with her consent:

When I arrived, there was a comprehensive check-in process that asked me whether I had been feeling unwell, in any COVID hotspots, in Australia or had a COVID test in last month. In ticking a few of these, I was then required to be assessed by the clinical site manager. She spent 15 mins asking me questions, had to show my test results & called a supervisor for a second opinion. It was decided I could visit provided I wear a KN95 mask, like all visitors. Again, this is in a country with no COVID & a city that hasn’t had a case in 18 months. After watching rest homes and the aged care sector be ravaged by COVID in Australia, I’m so very grateful that such efforts are being made to keep older people safe in NZ while still ensuring they can have visitors and connections to the outside world.

And today she got a text following up with her that if she feels unwell to get tested and to let them know immediately.

I don't have shares in RYM anymore (only SUM) but I'm impressed by their vigorous process. I thought shareholders might want to know that residents are well looked after.

[Beau]

My wife and I arrived back from Sunshine Coast on Friday after visiting family had pre COVID test before coming back. Phoned Rymans yesterday to find out what procedure was to visit my Mum in special care were told to head in to Rymans where a nurse would give us a COVID test which we had today. Results should be back in about a day, then we can visit with mask over 14 days after leaving Australia. Very pleased with there vigorous process as well.

[winner69]

MacLeod wanting immigration rules to change

https://twitter.com/bernardchickey/status/1424118970479611907?s=20

Need to watch a video

[macduffy]

I see that RYM has asserted its SP dominance over SUM once more. Only temporarily, perhaps? Not to worry, I hold them both!

:cool:

[limmy]

Same here.

I see that RYM has asserted its SP dominance over SUM once more. Only temporarily, perhaps? Not to worry, I hold them both!

:cool:

[Beagle]

Ryman reports record full year profit
Stage set for a better, bigger and brighter Ryman
Ryman Healthcare’s underlying full year profit has grown 16% to a record $158 million, as the company enters a new era of growth. Reported May 2016.
Bold words so how did they do in the following 5 years ?
2017 up 13%
2018 up 14.2%
2019 up 11.5%
2020 up 6.6%
2021 down 7.3%.

Gordy's no Simon Challis that's for sure.
If they finally get back to their 15% increase in underlying profit again then FY22 would see them make ~ $258m = 51.6 cps which at $13.90 puts them on a forward PE of 27.

Do they deserve their premium metrics any more ?

Disc Own OCA, ARV and now have some SUM back in the fold too, YEAH !

[winner69]

Reported May 2016.
Bold words so how did they do in the following 5 years ?
2017 up 13%
2018 up 14.2%
2019 up 11.5%
2020 up 6.6%
2021 down 7.3%.

Gordy's no Simon Challis that's for sure.
If they finally get back to their 15% increase in underlying profit again then FY22 would see them make ~ $258m = 51.6 cps which at $13.90 puts them on a forward PE of 27.

Do they deserve their premium metrics any more ?

Disc Own OCA, ARV and now have some SUM back in the fold too, YEAH !

Interesting

But as we find with others in the sector underlying earnings can be a bit 'misleading' - movement in book value (net assets) can be a better measure as to value

Movement in Ryman book value in those 5 years

2017 24%
2018 17%
2019 12%
2020 6%
2021 23%

CAGR 16% pa - not too bad

[BlackPeter]

Interesting

But as we find with others in the sector underlying earnings can be a bit 'misleading' - movement in book value (net assets) can be a better measure as to value

Movement in Ryman book value in those 5 years

2017 24%
2018 17%
2019 12%
2020 6%
2021 23%

CAGR 16% pa - not too bad

Good point, though book value can be a bit misleading as well - particular if we try to extrapolate it into the future.

The past book value growth rates come on the back of an extraordinary real estate price inflation. Are we sure house prices will keep rising in the future with two digit increases per year?

[winner69]

Good point, though book value can be a bit misleading as well - particular if we try to extrapolate it into the future.

The past book value growth rates come on the back of an extraordinary real estate price inflation. Are we sure house prices will keep rising in the future with two digit increases per year?

Over the time Ryman Book Value incraesed at 16% pa house prices rose at about 9% pa

So there's more than just property price inflation driving this

[BlackPeter]

Over the time Ryman Book Value incraesed at 16% pa house prices rose at about 9% pa

So there's more than just property price inflation driving this

Absolutely. If I just use your data - 9% pa property price inflation, leaves 7% pa for other stuff.

Maybe these 7% are even correlated with the underlying earnings? Who knows ...

Whatever it is, as soon as property price inflation goes down, so will Rymans (and other retirement village providers) amazing growth rates - but I guess we knew that, didn't we?

[Sideshow Bob]

From Business Desk Daily email:

Craigs raises Ryman recommendation to outperform (https://businessdesk.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=786ac0b2dc4f2240875208882&id=389a8a6ec3&e=3b6f9185d3)Craigs Investment Partners analyst Stephen Ridgewell has raised his recommendation on Ryman Healthcare shares to outperform, saying the industry heavyweight "appears to have learned some hard lessons".
"We believe Ryman shares at present offer investors an attractive opportunity to buy a quality, growing business at a reasonable price," Ridgewell said in a report.

Read on » (https://businessdesk.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=786ac0b2dc4f2240875208882&id=e1d74aef69&e=3b6f9185d3)

[BlackPeter]

From Business Desk Daily email:

Craigs raises Ryman recommendation to outperform (https://businessdesk.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=786ac0b2dc4f2240875208882&id=389a8a6ec3&e=3b6f9185d3)Craigs Investment Partners analyst Stephen Ridgewell has raised his recommendation on Ryman Healthcare shares to outperform, saying the industry heavyweight "appears to have learned some hard lessons".
"We believe Ryman shares at present offer investors an attractive opportunity to buy a quality, growing business at a reasonable price," Ridgewell said in a report.

Read on » (https://businessdesk.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=786ac0b2dc4f2240875208882&id=e1d74aef69&e=3b6f9185d3)

And who knows how this lockdown goes - Rym and other retirement villages might be soon on special ;):

[macduffy]

And who knows how this lockdown goes - Rym and other retirement villages might be soon on special ;):

I hope so. RYM and others have demonstrated their ability to handle previous lockdowns satisfactorily.

[Dotbond]

Any reason for this stock to increase so much over past week?

[winner69]

Any reason for this stock to increase so much over past week?


Possibly astute investors (fundies maybe) have realised it became very undervalued and cashing in.

[macduffy]

Any reason for this stock to increase so much over past week?

As winner suggests, investors have woken up to the quality of this company. SUM's result has helped, of course.

Disc: Holding both.

[winner69]

Seems to be a pretty appointment - new CEO Richard Umbers

Mr Umbers is an internationally experienced CEO with a background in leading large
businesses

His retail experience includes most recently Divisional Director of buying at supermarket
retailer Kaufland in Germany, and CEO and managing director at retailer Myer in Australia.
He also held senior roles at Woolworths in Australia and was managing director of
Progressive Enterprises Ltd in New Zealand, now trading as Countdown supermarkets.
Earlier in his career he held senior leadership roles with Australia Post and Aldi in Europe.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/378654/354115.pdf

[Rep]

Seems to be a pretty appointment - new CEO Richard Umbers

Mr Umbers is an internationally experienced CEO with a background in leading large
businesses

His retail experience includes most recently Divisional Director of buying at supermarket retailer Kaufland in Germany, and CEO and managing director at retailer Myer in Australia.
He also held senior roles at Woolworths in Australia and was managing director of Progressive Enterprises Ltd in New Zealand, now trading as Countdown supermarkets.
Earlier in his career he held senior leadership roles with Australia Post and Aldi in Europe.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/378654/354115.pdf

Hmmm slightly curious... it doesn't mention that his three year tenure as Myer's CEO ended where he stepped down with immediate effect in Feb 2018 after their third profit warning in nine months after this turnaround strategy failed to gain any traction.

Nor that his next role was at Kaufland for 18 months and then returned in March 2020 on 'gardening leave' after Kaufland spent as much as $500 million in Australia including $250 million on a Melbourne DC that it was halfway through building and had finished a $20 million store in SA before suddenly and unexpectedly curtailing the whole 'Aldi Killer' rollout quite suddenly. Apparently hypermarket stores had been finished and were being fitted out when the call came from Germany to cease the whole project... Then again Kaufland were in a bit of strife at home at the time as well...

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/experts-reveal-why-kaufland-sensationally-pulled-the-pin-on-australia/news-story/502dda31f183743fd3e289a05dddddef

He's a non exec director at Stone & Chalk - who announced upon appointment that he had "...demonstrable skills in digital, innovation and transitioning bricks and mortar businesses into online marketplaces..."
It will be interesting to see how that will be applied in RYM's business.

Hey but everyone should have a few failures on their ledger when they are retail turnaround specialists, right? Just hope his management team have the depth to help him out getting up to speed in RYM's core business.

Disc: Not holding

[Baa_Baa]

Hmmm slightly curious...

Very curious indeed, with no prior experience in the aged care sector. Hmmm.

[winner69]

Hmmm slightly curious... it doesn't mention that his three year tenure as Myer's CEO ended where he stepped down with immediate effect in Feb 2018 after their third profit warning in nine months after this turnaround strategy failed to gain any traction.

Nor that his next role was at Kaufland for 18 months and then returned in March 2020 on 'gardening leave' after Kaufland spent as much as $500 million in Australia including $250 million on a Melbourne DC that it was halfway through building and had finished a $20 million store in SA before suddenly and unexpectedly curtailing the whole 'Aldi Killer' rollout quite suddenly. Apparently hypermarket stores had been finished and were being fitted out when the call came from Germany to cease the whole project... Then again Kaufland were in a bit of strife at home at the time as well...

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/experts-reveal-why-kaufland-sensationally-pulled-the-pin-on-australia/news-story/502dda31f183743fd3e289a05dddddef

He's a non exec director at Stone & Chalk - who announced upon appointment that he had "...demonstrable skills in digital, innovation and transitioning bricks and mortar businesses into online marketplaces..."
It will be interesting to see how that will be applied in RYM's business.

Hey but everyone should have a few failures on their ledger when they are retail turnaround specialists, right? Just hope his management team have the depth to help him out getting up to speed in RYM's core business.

Disc: Not holding

Good research there rep

Seems the new guy isn’t bestowed with good luck / good fortune …or doesn’t create his own luck

Not good having an ‘unlucky’ CEO ….usually doesn’t turn out good. Great example was that Leon guy at Synlait, went from shareholders giving a rousing round of applause at an ASM to being dumped.

Glad I don’t have any Ryman shares

[macduffy]

Does the appointment of a recently Melbourne resident signal even greater emphasis on expansion in Victoria?

[BlackPeter]

Well done Ryman - they make sure all of their staff are vaccinated!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-nzs-biggest-retirement-village-operator-wants-all-staff-to-be-vaccinated/ZLGK2QOKRPTDYDC2DXLAXOVLHU/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=nzh_email&utm_campaign=Premium_Business_Briefing_Newsletter&uuid=07a57e44f5f54fc98c5c276a09e442f5

Ryman going ahead - I hope all other healthcare providers will be that responsible and follow ...

[dobby41]

A worker on the Lincoln Rd, Henderson site has tested positive and the site is closed
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/10/coronavirus-latest-on-covid-19-community-outbreak-friday-october-1.html

[Bjauck]

A worker on the Lincoln Rd, Henderson site has tested positive and the site is closed
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/10/coronavirus-latest-on-covid-19-community-outbreak-friday-october-1.html


One tentacle of this outbreak is cut off only for another to grow back. The site was closed “out of an abundance of caution”. This hyperbole is used so often now.

[Mr Slothbear]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/381669

looks like a very smart move

that’ll mean they can have even more apartments and villas share the same amenities, bowling greens etc. very profitable to add the extra scale and as they say they have a waiting list before they’ve even developed.

[Sideshow Bob]

Ryman unaudited first half underlying profit of $95.9m - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/383138)

Ryman reports unaudited first half underlying profit of $95.9 million, up 8.5%

Highlights:

• Unaudited underlying profit $95.9 million, an increase of 8.5%
• Reported (IFRS) profit increased 32.5% to $281.5 million, due to investment property revaluations
• Interim dividend of 8.8 cents per share, unchanged from prior year
• Total assets $9.85 billion, up 18.1% on September last year
• Net assets of $3.03 billion, up $579.6 million or 23.6% from a year ago
• Total cash receipts of $680.5 million in the half, up 40.9% from $483.1 million last year
• Dividend payment range reset to between 30% and 50% of underlying profit

Ryman Healthcare’s unaudited first half underlying profit rose 8.5% to $95.9 million, with demand for retirement living and aged care remaining strong despite the challenges of COVID-19.

Unaudited reported (IFRS) profit, which includes unrealised fair value gains on investment property, increased 32.5% to $281.5 million in the six months to September 30.
Shareholders will receive an interim dividend of 8.8 cents per share. The record date for entitlements is December 10, and the dividend will be paid on December 17, 2021.

Group Chief Executive Richard Umbers said the Delta strain of COVID-19 had resulted in lengthy lockdowns in Melbourne and Auckland during the first half, but Ryman villages remained in strong demand.

Total transacted sales rose 48% to $510 million in the first half. Only 1.2% of the retirement village portfolio was available for resale at September 30.
“When you consider the extent of the lockdowns in Auckland and Melbourne, which are our biggest markets, sales have been remarkably resilient," Mr Umbers said.
The gradual easing of COVID-19 restrictions in Victoria, changes to migration settings in New Zealand and high vaccination rates in both countries were welcome news.
Ryman started work on three new sites during the half at Takapuna in Auckland and Highett and Ringwood East in Melbourne, bringing total villages in construction to 15.

“After 20 months of living in a pandemic we’re used to adapting and doing things differently to keep everyone safe and maintain momentum at the same time. There’s pressure on all our resources but we have strong supply lines and relationships with contractors.

“We expect to see pent-up demand come through in the market as restrictions lift in the next few months and we are cautiously optimistic about the months ahead.
“Since joining Ryman I have been impressed by the commitment of the team to keeping everyone safe, and the extraordinary care they take. I’ve had a warm welcome and I’m looking forward to building on Ryman’s success on both sides of the Tasman."

Chair Dr David Kerr said the board has adjusted the dividend policy from 50% of underlying profit to a 30%-50% range.

“We have strong long-term growth plans and this change will enhance our ability to continue to deliver the Ryman experience to more communities."
15 villages currently in construction as at November 19, 2021:

New Zealand
Lynfield, Auckland (Murray Halberg)
Devonport, Auckland (William Sanders)
River Rd, Hamilton (Linda Jones)
Lincoln Rd, Auckland (Miriam Corban)
Havelock North, Hawkes Bay (James Wattie)
Hobsonville, Auckland (Keith Park)
Riccarton Park, Christchurch (Kevin Hickman)
Takapuna, Auckland
Australia
Brandon Park, Melbourne (Nellie Melba)
Burwood East, Melbourne (John Flynn)
Highton, Geelong, Victoria (Charles Brownlow)
Ocean Grove, Victoria (Deborah Cheetham)
Aberfeldie, Melbourne (Raelene Boyle)
Highett, Melbourne
Ringwood East, Melbourne
Sites in the land bank:
New Zealand
Kohimarama, Auckland
Bishopspark/Park Terrace, Christchurch
Northwood, Christchurch
Karori, Wellington
Newtown, Wellington
Karaka, Auckland
Cambridge, Waikato
Australia
Essendon, Melbourne
Mt Eliza, Victoria
Mt Martha, Victoria
Mulgrave, Melbourne

[Sideshow Bob]

Greg Campbell to succeed Dr David Kerr as chair of Ryman - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/383135)

[bull....]

as we thought development margins are getting crushed , a lot is riding on resale margins to save the day

[winner69]

Lot of numbers but main one is Net assets of $3.03 billion, up $579.6 million or 23.6% from a year ago

The 23.6% up from a year ago is huge

[Mr Slothbear]

Greg Campbell to succeed Dr David Kerr as chair of Ryman - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/383135)


very sad to see David step down he has done wonders.

good to see change to payout ratio as the cash will be put to good use with so many villages coming in the pipeline

[couta1]

very sad to see David step down he has done wonders.

good to see change to payout ratio as the cash will be put to good use with so many villages coming in the pipeline Yeah he's a great human being for sure, had the privilege of getting to know him whilst my wife was a Ryman village manager quite a few yrs ago.

[peat]

dividend lowered... hopefully increased NTA makes you happy.

[bull....]

dividend lowered... hopefully increased NTA makes you happy.

and they mentioned uncertainty going forward .... probably to do with the margins i guess

[Beagle]

Lot of numbers but main one is Net assets of $3.03 billion, up $579.6 million or 23.6% from a year ago

The 23.6% up from a year ago is huge

Yet despite them having the very highest gearing in the sector this trails the (unleveraged) increase in the house price index in the last year. I'm really underwhelmed. The whole sector feels like an abandoned baby.

[Lease]

and they mentioned uncertainty going forward .... probably to do with the margins i guess

Well, property price may be peaked. Their margin will be affected.

[bull....]

Well, property price may be peaked. Their margin will be affected.

yep same for all of them. wont be as easy to raise prices to offset the cost of development going up big next yr

[Beagle]

Market seems unimpressed with the result and outlook. I have thought for many years now and often posted the same that RYM's premium to the rest of the sector wasn't warranted.

I think in terms of this sector going forward you might as well buy at a discount to NAV with OCA, a modest premium to NTA with ARV or not bother.
If you want growth its clear SUM is growing the strongest but whether its worth the premium to NTA it trades on is very debatable.

[Maxtrade]

as we thought development margins are getting crushed , a lot is riding on resale margins to save the day

Ouch SP taking a beating today after that update. Might find a bottom end of next week around $12.50? End of month portfolio rebalancing, might be quite a few after this update and recent news in the sector/ property outlooks etc who might move funds elsewhere. Possible see lows of June/August retested?