RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[Bikeguy]

Don’t sell on this uplift guys, the fundamentals line up now the debt is reduced and on Friday you will see how well the financials stack up without that mountain of debt and having paused the pace of development a little, it’s going to be a pleasant read,
Not that I think the SP will move much on the result initially,

Their underlying profit ( which is what this business should always be measured on) will only continue to grow as their investments come online,
Can you imagine in 4 years time when their assets revaluations increase inline with property market movements how the SP will react?

[mshierlaw]

Good move today

Up 8.2% on volume 1.39M shares. Who selling ..... instos who were part of the float?

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132086719/ryman-profit-drops-but-result-reveals-aussies-paying-less-to-live-in-retirement-villages-than-new-zealanders

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/490219/ryman-healthcare-reports-63-percent-drop-in-net-profit

[Lease]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132086719/ryman-profit-drops-but-result-reveals-aussies-paying-less-to-live-in-retirement-villages-than-new-zealanders

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/490219/ryman-healthcare-reports-63-percent-drop-in-net-profit

Media can only mislead readers. We all know the most important figure is underlying profit.

[Valuegrowth]

I agree. Our own research is the best.
Media can only mislead readers. We all know the most important figure is underlying profit.

[winner69]

lol those squiggly lines on pg 18 cant keep going up forever ... resale margins were good old sales booked at low original sale prices eh

Hey bull, we could be at or approaching ‘peak margins’ eh

[BlackPeter]

Media can only mislead readers. We all know the most important figure is underlying profit.

Actually - media don't mislead readers more often than random posters do. Your post above is quite misleading if I may say so.

Underlying profit can be an interesting number (if you know how the company decided to generate it) in order to compare a number of companies on one particular performance parameter, but whether it is more important than other numbers depends very much on which information you want to get from it.

Underlying profit is one way to assess the profitability of an organisation without being distracted by revaluation gains (or losses) or one-offs (no matter how frequent they happen), but - if you want e.g. to sell the share then underlying profit is quite irrelevant and IFRS profit trumps ... unless you don't care about all the money you might have gained or lost through revaluations; Thing however is - the buyer will :) ;

As well - many situations where e.g. cashflow is much more important than an easy to manipulate underlying profit of even IFRS profit. Talk with the accountants at SML to find out what I mean;

[Bikeguy]

Actually - media don't mislead readers more often than random posters do. Your post above is quite misleading if I may say so.

Underlying profit can be an interesting number (if you know how the company decided to generate it) in order to compare a number of companies on one particular performance parameter, but whether it is more important than other numbers depends very much on which information you want to get from it.

Underlying profit is one way to assess the profitability of an organisation without being distracted by revaluation gains (or losses) or one-offs (no matter how frequent they happen), but - if you want e.g. to sell the share then underlying profit is quite irrelevant and IFRS profit trumps ... unless you don't care about all the money you might have gained or lost through revaluations; Thing however is - the buyer will :) ;

As well - many situations where e.g. cashflow is much more important than an easy to manipulate underlying profit of even IFRS profit. Talk with the accountants at SML to find out what I mean;

I agree with you, Underlying profit is one way to assess the profitability of an organisation without distraction by revaluation,
a very good way, as is cashflow, which are both pretty healthy in this last set of financials, can you please explain further what you mean by “ easy to manipulate underlying profit”? Do you feel Ryman is cooking the books in some way? Cheers👍

[BlackPeter]

I agree with you, Underlying profit is one way to assess the profitability of an organisation without distraction by revaluation,
a very good way, as is cashflow, which are both pretty healthy in this last set of financials, can you please explain further what you mean by “ easy to manipulate underlying profit”? Do you feel Ryman is cooking the books in some way? Cheers��

This comment was not specifically coined against Ryman (though yes, you might call it cooking their books) ... just my view that underlying profits made up by others are always useless (unless you know exactly how they have been calculated and you use them only to compare with other companies using exactly the same criteria).

Easy to manipulate? Well, there is no definition of what is a "one-off" gain or loss (which normally is not included into the underlying profit.
Examples:

If your CFO makes a gigantic miscalculation and wastes $150m in agreeing to ridiculous penalty clauses for USD credits - is this a one off (and therefore not reducing the underlying profit) - or is this just the normal penalty for picking the wrong people to do the job (and therefore normal ongoing costs for a less than perfect board ...)?

If you have in average a 6% property appreciation per year - when does this turn from IFRS profit to underlying profit?

If you have four 100 year storm events in the last decade - when does this damage turn from one off (i.e. just IFRS losses to underlying losses)?

So - Covid was a one-off - cost - but, was it? What if we have next year the next pandemic sweeping through?

If farmers have twice in a decade a devastating draught - are these really one offs, not impacting the underlying profitability of the farm?

What I am saying is - while anybody is allowed to cook their own set of parameters (and they do) - never trust any non IFRS standardized financial parameters you did not make up yourself ... everything else is just plainly misleading.

I like IFRS profits which include the whole story, and if I am worried about "one offs" distorting the picture of the companies performance, than I just look at larger time windows. Much more realistic that taking somebody else's view of what belongs in and what belongs out. If you get it, it belongs in, and if you have to pay for it, it belongs in as well.

Easy as that. Makes sense?

[winner69]

I agree with you, Underlying profit is one way to assess the profitability of an organisation without distraction by revaluation,
a very good way, as is cashflow, which are both pretty healthy in this last set of financials, can you please explain further what you mean by “ easy to manipulate underlying profit”? Do you feel Ryman is cooking the books in some way? Cheers👍

Cashflow pretty healthy ,,, but still cash burn of close on $400m

But the red dotted line looks like things getting better …..and heading to zero in 2025

[Lease]

Actually - media don't mislead readers more often than random posters do. Your post above is quite misleading if I may say so.

Underlying profit can be an interesting number (if you know how the company decided to generate it) in order to compare a number of companies on one particular performance parameter, but whether it is more important than other numbers depends very much on which information you want to get from it.

Underlying profit is one way to assess the profitability of an organisation without being distracted by revaluation gains (or losses) or one-offs (no matter how frequent they happen), but - if you want e.g. to sell the share then underlying profit is quite irrelevant and IFRS profit trumps ... unless you don't care about all the money you might have gained or lost through revaluations; Thing however is - the buyer will :) ;

As well - many situations where e.g. cashflow is much more important than an easy to manipulate underlying profit of even IFRS profit. Talk with the accountants at SML to find out what I mean;

Well, this is only your opinion. Why a stock buyer cares about revaluations? The buyer is quite possibly a value investor who focus on the company underlying performance rather than asset revaluation.

[Bikeguy]

This comment was not specifically coined against Ryman (though yes, you might call it cooking their books) ... just my view that underlying profits made up by others are always useless (unless you know exactly how they have been calculated and you use them only to compare with other companies using exactly the same criteria).

Easy to manipulate? Well, there is no definition of what is a "one-off" gain or loss (which normally is not included into the underlying profit.
Examples:

If your CFO makes a gigantic miscalculation and wastes $150m in agreeing to ridiculous penalty clauses for USD credits - is this a one off (and therefore not reducing the underlying profit) - or is this just the normal penalty for picking the wrong people to do the job (and therefore normal ongoing costs for a less than perfect board ...)?

If you have in average a 6% property appreciation per year - when does this turn from IFRS profit to underlying profit?

If you have four 100 year storm events in the last decade - when does this damage turn from one off (i.e. just IFRS losses to underlying losses)?

So - Covid was a one-off - cost - but, was it? What if we have next year the next pandemic sweeping through?

If farmers have twice in a decade a devastating draught - are these really one offs, not impacting the underlying profitability of the farm?

What I am saying is - while anybody is allowed to cook their own set of parameters (and they do) - never trust any non IFRS standardized financial parameters you did not make up yourself ... everything else is just plainly misleading.

I like IFRS profits which include the whole story, and if I am worried about "one offs" distorting the picture of the companies performance, than I just look at larger time windows. Much more realistic that taking somebody else's view of what belongs in and what belongs out. If you get it, it belongs in, and if you have to pay for it, it belongs in as well.

Easy as that. Makes sense?

I appreciate your thoughts above, and yes I agree with you there are always unexpected impacts to any business, especially one that has been around as long as Ryman…

[Bikeguy]

Mag I ask, do you see any particular one offs within the Ryman financials that you feel (believe) create a false reading on their underlying profit figures?
Many thanks for your thoughts ��

[Bikeguy]

Meant “May I ask,

[BlackPeter]

Mag I ask, do you see any particular one offs within the Ryman financials that you feel (believe) create a false reading on their underlying profit figures?
Many thanks for your thoughts ��

Look - the say themselves:

"Reported IFRS profit down due to lower revaluation gains and early USPP repayment costs"

That's where I would start.

Excluding Revaluation gains and losses to calculate the underlying profit make sense, and it is up to every single investor to decide whether they want to book the revaluation gains (and losses) per year or just at the end when they sell their investment. There is no right or wrong, though personally I feel it non sensical not to book what your investment has gained (or lost).

But what about the early USPP repayment costs? Sure - maybe they avoid over the years to come signing foreign currency loans with conditions they don't understand ... but, isn't this just a symptom for their board processes lacking rigor?

It appears they don't even worry about that they just burned through $150m of shareholder funds. Maybe they don't want to know? But I guess, whatever it was - having a faulty (or bad - advised) board and board processes is not a one-off, isn't it? And even a faulty board renewing itself does not guarantee a flawless board emerging, doesn't it?

Which means, maybe they make next time a different mistake, but we just need to accept that these guys and gals with these processes are going to make every so many years (and hopefully not more often) a capital mistake - and we need to include the cost for that in the calculation of the profit. Otherwise we just fool ourselves. Well, they certainly try to - have not even heard a "mea culpa" from them.

And, even if it really would be only a one off - why do we exclude it from calculating the underlying profit? No matter how you call it - shareholder do have to pay for it, it is real money they destroyed.

Why not admit to investors, that they like to make costly mistakes instead of trying to pull the fleece over their investors eyes?

[Habits]

"It appears they don't even worry about that they just burned through $150m of shareholder funds"

Oh well its just 20 cents per share, not to worry :t_down:

[Bikeguy]

I really appreciate your thoughts on this, very insightful,
So are these two points "Reported IFRS profit down due to lower revaluation gains and early USPP repayment costs" the only impacts you see effecting the financial reporting around Underlying Profit? Or do you feel there are more?
Thank you,

[winner69]

So Underlying Profit of $302m excludes unrealised revaluation gains as well cost exiting that US debt problem

Realised gains were $358m ……does that mean Ryman “lost” $56m on day to day operations ($358m - $302m)

Looking after people and running villages not very profitable is it ….or is $56m what some punters call what property subsidises day to day stuff.

[Bikeguy]

So Underlying Profit of $302m excludes unrealised revaluation gains as well cost exiting that US debt problem

Realised gains were $358m ……does that mean Ryman “lost” $56m on day to day operations ($358m - $302m)

Looking after people and running villages not very profitable is it ….or is $56m what some punters call what property subsidises day to day stuff.

Something I am not quite understanding here so will ask a dumb question,
Has Ryman ever included unrealised valuation gains in its Underlying Profit figures at any time in its operating history, either up or downwards movements?

Do unrealised valuation gains actually put any cash into the business? (my limited understanding of this area is that these gains only materialise if an asset is actually sold?

[winner69]

Something I am not quite understanding here so will ask a dumb question,
Has Ryman ever included unrealised valuation gains in its Underlying Profit figures at any time in its operating history, either up or downwards movements?

Do unrealised valuation gains actually put any cash into the business? (my limited understanding of this area is that these gains only materialise if an asset is actually sold?

Unrealised valuation +/- never been included in Underlying Profit …..only realised gains on resales and realised gains (development margin) on new sales

Unrealised gains don’t ‘put any cash into the business’ ……..cash only games from sales when gains are ‘realised’

Think of this Underlying Profit as a measure of how they’ve done in an accounting period …….like how much profit from selling things (ORAs) and running villages and looking after people

[Bikeguy]

Thank you, what you have written makes good sense to me, so the Underlying Profit metric is a reasonable one (combined with other metrics) to use to measure this business’s financial performance as its a year on year reasonably apple apple comparison?
My thanks for your thoughts 😊

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bar Review.

Reported a strong FY23 result, ahead of our and consensus expectations with annuity EBITDA up +27% versus FY22, driven by good cost control and continued high resale gains. For the first time since the onset of COVID-19, RYM surprised to the downside with regards to both costs and debt. It was also the first time since 2H20 that RYM has experienced six months of clear air; free from lockdowns and major COVID outbreaks. We think the two are related. It has been a difficult three operational years for aged care as well as property development; we believe we are seeing the first signs of normalisation. The result was far from perfect. New sales were even weaker than we had anticipated and deliveries were hampered by the poor weather in the North Island of NZ. Looking ahead, we are encouraged by; (1) RYM's strong progress in Australia, (2) its focus on becoming free cash flow positive by FY25, and (3) the continued land bank mix shift towards lower density villages. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating with a 12 month target price of NZ$8.20.

What's changed?




Earnings: We increase our FY24/FY25/FY26 annuity EBITDA by +8%/+7%/+7%, primarily driven by lower opex, partly offset by slightly lower DMF. Our underlying earnings increase less, by +3%/+5%/+7%, due to reduced new sales gains.
Target price: We increase our target price by +4% to NZ$8.20 (from NZ$7.85) driven by higher annuity earnings, slightly higher dividends and slightly lower net debt forecasts.


Operating expenses normalising as COVID disruptions fade into the background


RYM has grown opex by an average of +17% per annum over the last three years. A substantial portion of this relates to scope growth and the well established aged care wage inflation. A portion will also be excess costs related to COVID; unlimited sick leave, PP&E, security, rostering challenges and more. Some of these excess costs are now reversing and RYM grew underlying opex by only +7% in 2H23. We expect this lower pace of opex to continue in FY24.

Positive free cash flow by FY25? Success is not a destination, it's a journey


RYM reiterated its ambition to deliver its first year of positive free cash flow since FY14 in FY25. We think it will be close. Small margins around the number of settlements in 2H25 and build decisions will decide whether RYM falls just short or achieves its target. The important part is; (1) RYM has acknowledged that free cash flow is an important metric; (2) leverage stays comfortably below 35%; and (3) RYM continues to transform its business for sustainable growth from FY25 onwards. 2H23 was a clear step in the right direction. If RYM continues on this path and the NZ housing market does not substantially deteriorate from here, both of which we expect, we believe RYM will be one of the best mid/large cap equity stories in NZ over the coming 12 to 18 months.

[snigmac]

Time to put up our feet and let the good times roll on in :)

[Bikeguy]

I hold this share in a small quantity, and while I understand anything can happen in a business environment it’s starting to feel like maybe this business has weathered the storm so to speak?

[snigmac]

In my opinion, Ryman has weathered the storm so far. The company is in a better position to deal with any further marginal increases to interest rate given it is quite easy for them to pass on increases costs to clients. Being cashflow positive by March 2024 would be a game changer.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412154

Ryman Healthcare is pleased to announce two new appointments to its board of directors.

Dean Hamilton will join the board commencing 1 June 2023 and will subsequently take over as Board Chair on 31 July 2023, following the AGM. Mr Hamilton brings an extensive background in governance, large company leadership and financial markets, across both New Zealand and Australia. He is currently Chair of trans-Tasman civil contractor Fulton Hogan and holds director roles at Auckland International Airport and The Warehouse Group.

James Miller will also join the board commencing 1 June 2023, and will transition to the Audit, Finance and Risk Committee Chair role. Mr Miller is the current Chair of Channel Infrastructure and a director of Mercury NZ and Vista Group. He was previously Chair of NZX and brings extensive knowledge in both Audit and Risk and financial markets.

Interim Chair Claire Higgins, said: “With a focus on refreshing board leadership and bringing new capability to the company, we are delighted to announce the appointments of both Dean and James to the board. They bring a wealth of relevant experience and expertise to Ryman, which will ensure long-term and forward-thinking leadership and governance.”

“Their deep collective knowledge and specialist governance expertise will stand the company in good stead for the future, and we look forward to welcoming them,” continued Mrs Higgins.

Mr Hamilton said: “I am delighted to be joining the board of Ryman. With a deeply-rooted culture of care, a renewed focus on financial performance and expansion opportunities particularly in Australia, the future for the company is exciting. I look forward to contributing and helping lead the company and the committed Ryman team.”

Board member changes

George Savvides has already announced his intention to retire from the board. This will take effect from 1 June, to coincide with the appointment of Dean and James.
Longstanding directors Warren Bell and Jo Appleyard have also announced that they will retire at the AGM this year. Geoff Cumming has announced that he will not seek reappointment when his current term expires in 2024.

“I’d like to express my gratitude to the outgoing directors for their dedication and commitment as members of our board over many years and we wish them all the best,” added Mrs Higgins.

Both Claire Higgins and fellow director Paula Jeffs intend to stand for re-election at the forthcoming AGM.

The board will also look to appoint two further directors in the course of the coming year.

About Dean Hamilton

Dean is currently the Chair of Fulton Hogan and a director of Auckland International Airport and The Warehouse Group. Prior to moving into governance in 2018, Dean was the Chief Executive of Silver Ferns Farms and prior to that, was a Managing Director in Investment Banking at Deutsche Bank in New Zealand and Australia.

At Silver Fern Farms, Dean led a team that successfully delivered a substantial turnaround in the organisation’s performance. Silver Fern Farms is New Zealand’s largest red meat processing and marketing organisation that at the time had over 7,000 employees, $2 billion in revenue and 15,000 shareholders. Under Dean’s leadership the business achieved a significant improvement in financial performance and discipline, staff and supplier engagement, sustainability and consumer trust in brand.

Dean was at Deutsche Bank for over 12 years, firstly in New Zealand and then as Managing Director and co-head of the Melbourne investment banking team. Dean was involved with a large variety of clients and transactions, advising on M&A, IPOs, equity and debt raisings and leveraged buy-outs. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce and Administration from Victoria University and is a CMInstD of the NZ Institute of Directors.

About James Miller

James Miller is currently Chair of Channel Infrastructure, and a Director of Mercury NZ and Vista Group. He has recently retired as Chair of NZX, and previously held board positions with Accident Compensation Corporation (deputy Chair), Auckland International Airport, the Financial Markets Authority and Vector. He is currently Chair of the Audit and Risk Committees for Mercury NZ and Vista Group. He has been Chair of the Audit and Risk Committee for Auckland International Airport and Channel Infrastructure and Chair of ACC Investment Committee, overseeing a $50 billion fund.

James has 14 years capital markets experience with Craigs Investment Partners as Head of NZ Wholesale Equities. Prior to that he was Head of Equities and Head of Research at ABN AMRO and Barclays de Zoete Wedd.

James is a qualified Chartered Accountant and is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of New Zealand, a Certified Securities Analyst Professional, and an accredited Director of the Institute of Directors in NZ Inc. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Otago University and is a graduate of The Advanced Management Program, Harvard Business School (USA).

[BlackPeter]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412154

Ryman Healthcare is pleased to announce two new appointments to its board of directors.

Dean Hamilton will join the board commencing 1 June 2023 and will subsequently take over as Board Chair on 31 July 2023, following the AGM. Mr Hamilton brings an extensive background in governance, large company leadership and financial markets, across both New Zealand and Australia. He is currently Chair of trans-Tasman civil contractor Fulton Hogan and holds director roles at Auckland International Airport and The Warehouse Group.

James Miller will also join the board commencing 1 June 2023, and will transition to the Audit, Finance and Risk Committee Chair role. Mr Miller is the current Chair of Channel Infrastructure and a director of Mercury NZ and Vista Group. He was previously Chair of NZX and brings extensive knowledge in both Audit and Risk and financial markets.

Interim Chair Claire Higgins, said: “With a focus on refreshing board leadership and bringing new capability to the company, we are delighted to announce the appointments of both Dean and James to the board. They bring a wealth of relevant experience and expertise to Ryman, which will ensure long-term and forward-thinking leadership and governance.”

“Their deep collective knowledge and specialist governance expertise will stand the company in good stead for the future, and we look forward to welcoming them,” continued Mrs Higgins.

Mr Hamilton said: “I am delighted to be joining the board of Ryman. With a deeply-rooted culture of care, a renewed focus on financial performance and expansion opportunities particularly in Australia, the future for the company is exciting. I look forward to contributing and helping lead the company and the committed Ryman team.”

Board member changes

George Savvides has already announced his intention to retire from the board. This will take effect from 1 June, to coincide with the appointment of Dean and James.
Longstanding directors Warren Bell and Jo Appleyard have also announced that they will retire at the AGM this year. Geoff Cumming has announced that he will not seek reappointment when his current term expires in 2024.

“I’d like to express my gratitude to the outgoing directors for their dedication and commitment as members of our board over many years and we wish them all the best,” added Mrs Higgins.

Both Claire Higgins and fellow director Paula Jeffs intend to stand for re-election at the forthcoming AGM.

The board will also look to appoint two further directors in the course of the coming year.

About Dean Hamilton

Dean is currently the Chair of Fulton Hogan and a director of Auckland International Airport and The Warehouse Group. Prior to moving into governance in 2018, Dean was the Chief Executive of Silver Ferns Farms and prior to that, was a Managing Director in Investment Banking at Deutsche Bank in New Zealand and Australia.

At Silver Fern Farms, Dean led a team that successfully delivered a substantial turnaround in the organisation’s performance. Silver Fern Farms is New Zealand’s largest red meat processing and marketing organisation that at the time had over 7,000 employees, $2 billion in revenue and 15,000 shareholders. Under Dean’s leadership the business achieved a significant improvement in financial performance and discipline, staff and supplier engagement, sustainability and consumer trust in brand.

Dean was at Deutsche Bank for over 12 years, firstly in New Zealand and then as Managing Director and co-head of the Melbourne investment banking team. Dean was involved with a large variety of clients and transactions, advising on M&A, IPOs, equity and debt raisings and leveraged buy-outs. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce and Administration from Victoria University and is a CMInstD of the NZ Institute of Directors.

About James Miller

James Miller is currently Chair of Channel Infrastructure, and a Director of Mercury NZ and Vista Group. He has recently retired as Chair of NZX, and previously held board positions with Accident Compensation Corporation (deputy Chair), Auckland International Airport, the Financial Markets Authority and Vector. He is currently Chair of the Audit and Risk Committees for Mercury NZ and Vista Group. He has been Chair of the Audit and Risk Committee for Auckland International Airport and Channel Infrastructure and Chair of ACC Investment Committee, overseeing a $50 billion fund.

James has 14 years capital markets experience with Craigs Investment Partners as Head of NZ Wholesale Equities. Prior to that he was Head of Equities and Head of Research at ABN AMRO and Barclays de Zoete Wedd.

James is a qualified Chartered Accountant and is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of New Zealand, a Certified Securities Analyst Professional, and an accredited Director of the Institute of Directors in NZ Inc. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Otago University and is a graduate of The Advanced Management Program, Harvard Business School (USA).

Hmm - both "newbies seem to have a somewhat patchy past.

Not sure I would want to put The Warehouse Group, NZX or e.g. Deutsche Bank as a director on my CV ... but hey, lets hope they learned from their previous mistakes.

Ah well - looks like both are buddies governing AIA. At least they seem to know how to keep punters hope up for future real estate plays - and they might know about the right time to do Cap rises ;) ;

And governing the ACC investment committee? Is ACC known to be a particularly good investor? I thought they invest into anything which still moves?

So hard these days to find good directors ...

[Sideshow Bob]

Annual report released

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/413209/396651.pdf

[snigmac]

A fair $19 million worth of shares traded today :o

[Filthy]

A fair $19 million worth of shares traded today :o

pretty quiet on this thread recently?

might break through $7 bucks shortly.

doing pretty well; up almost 30% last couple of months.

SUM also up 3/4% today.

is the worst behind this sector now?

[Mr Slothbear]

pretty quiet on this thread recently?

might break through $7 bucks shortly.

doing pretty well; up almost 30% last couple of months.

SUM also up 3/4% today.

is the worst behind this sector now?


yes soon be up 50% on the cap raise shares I fully subscribed for only a few shorts months ago.

[Bikeguy]

It will flatten and slip back as investors/traders take some of the profit

[snigmac]

AGM is next week. I wonder if a confirmation of dividend will be provided for early 2024 :D.

[Sideshow Bob]

AGM Presos https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415365

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/415365/399226.pdf

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/415365/399227.pdf

[winner69]

How cute is ‘Welcome Rymanians’

[percy]

How cute is ‘Welcome Rymanians’

Just wait until you go to 2CC's agm.

"Hi 2Cheapers."

[winner69]

Just wait until you go to 2CC's agm.

"Hi 2Cheapers."


Very good percy …like it

[winner69]

No comment on how sales have gone since March

Only reconfirmed F24 guidance Underlying Earnings of $310m to $330m…. V FY23 of $302m so things must only be steadily chugging along and nothing dramatic one way or the other

[snigmac]

Looks like we need to wait for longer for a dividend and more sound 2024 information to come through.

[Snow Leopard]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/415365/399226.pdf

Heavy lifting ;)


....We are looking closely at how we measure our success. Underlying profit has been too prominent in driving some of our decisions.

It needs to sit alongside other metrics which more closely align with cashflow. We have commenced and will be relentless in lifting every rock to improve performance and transparency, and deliver the returns you are entitled to expect from the company....

[snigmac]

Financial info from the meet up was pretty weak, lower than anticipated numbers within the guidance provided.

[nztx]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/415365/399226.pdf

Heavy lifting ;)


Crashflow look like it don't include lifting valuations up or down the other way or any other things that
suddenly appear then go crashing through the floorboards :)

[winner69]

Financial info from the meet up was pretty weak, lower than anticipated numbers within the guidance provided.


They did F24 Underlying Profit goingbto be a bit more than F23

[snigmac]

They did F24 Underlying Profit goingbto be a bit more than F23

I think most people will still see Ryman as a safe buy atm but I don't see it taking off until a dividend has been confirmed in November this year. The sp is likely to float around the current price until closer to November.

I think it's wise for leadership to be safe with lower forecasts within guidance, rather then promise too much, better safe than sorry.

[winner69]

The video of last years ASM was edited before it was posted online …..they edited out John Boscawens questions about how they fiddle the sales numbers

Transparency at its best eh

Seems he reckons F23 sales numbers are quite kosha as well ..NBR reports -

Long-standing Ryman critic John Boscawen, however, still had concerns with the company’s reporting of completed units in its annual report, saying that according to his calculations, 700 of the 13,600 claimed to be completed were in fact still in progress.

“Do you think hiding the fact that there are 700 units and beds that are not actually completed, in a footnote… do you think that’s adequate disclosure?” he quizzed both Hamilton and Higgins.

Higgins acknowledged Boscawen’s “passion” for the business and said while it committed last year to improving disclosure, it had not yet gone far enough.

“I’m disappointed I hadn’t picked that one up, actually… we will continue to work on that and improve it.”

Hamilton reiterated the commitment but stresses there was no “culture of hiding” at the business.

“Can we improve? My initial observation and the feedback is definitely, we can.”

[winner69]

Jeez 18% vote against Claire Higgins Re-election

Pretty damning I reckon

[bull....]

pretty bad update at annual meeting ... all about cashflow

[Toranaman]

Are we heading down into $5 territory? When is the turnaround?

[snigmac]

Anyone heard anything about whether Ryman will provide a dividend? It was hinted that there would be news on this around November 2023 :x

[BlackPeter]

Anyone heard anything about whether Ryman will provide a dividend? It was hinted that there would be news on this around November 2023 :x

So - you probably need to wait another 7 weeks or so :) - what's the rush? I hope they only pay a dividend if they can afford to out of cash flow. Anything else would be just stupid.

[troyvdh]

Please guys have some respect ..and keep your bickering private,
BTW how old are you guys.

[ValueNZ]

It's not "bickering" - he's sending people CONSTANT negative reputation comments. And the site needs to know what's going on.
I don't care that you're getting negative rep, it's a feature of the site so go cry about it to the site administrator not the members. These posts of yours are getting very tiring to read and it's in nearly every active thread at the moment.

[Baa_Baa]

... deleted ...

[ralph]

What's next? A negative reputation war? Members of the site attacking each other with these messages, back and forth? I'm not responding in kind; this behaviour by BlackPeter disgusts me.
Yes you have made you point don't ruin it for Others now .
End of

[Rawz]

I see Azz is banned. Tf for that

[snigmac]

Do Ryman usually have a primer or early release of information before the November result information release?

[Toranaman]

Background reading
https://www.afr.com/rear-window/richard-no-numbers-umbers-greatest-hits-atop-myer-20180214-h0w2yi

[Grasshopper]

Ryman $5.40 WTF? What is going on? Any comments. Sold most at 6.50 but still a holder.

[Bjauck]

Quite a drop today. I wonder if it will reach the March share purchase plan price of $5 by the end of the month. I had regretted not applying for more then, but…Has someone got a whiff of something bad?

[troyvdh]

Dear Bj.Indeed .BTW how do you think those instos who bought in at over 10 dollars are feeling.I understand that RYM had acknowledged the debt issue and had addressed it...I often drive past there huge development in Northwood..CHCH...Looks very impressive.Does/will it make sufficient dosh.I suppose as usual keeping and eye on major SH is wise.cheers

[Bjauck]

Dear Bj.Indeed .BTW how do you think those instos who bought in at over 10 dollars are feeling.I understand that RYM had acknowledged the debt issue and had addressed it...I often drive past there huge development in Northwood..CHCH...Looks very impressive.Does/will it make sufficient dosh.I suppose as usual keeping and eye on major SH is wise.cheersThree directors did dispose of shares in August.

[troyvdh]

Not many holders of RYM obviously.

[nztx]

Not many holders of RYM obviously.


the $12 ones might be becoming rare too ..

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422575

Key financials

>Unaudited reported (IFRS) profit of $186.7 million, down 3.8% on the same period last year
>Negative free cash flow of $158.4 million, an improvement of $138.5 million on the same period last year
>Unaudited underlying profit of $139.2 million, up 0.3% on the same period last year
>Operating EBITDA of $146.3 million, up 7.8% on the same period last year
>Total assets up 4.6% to $13.09 billion
>Net interest-bearing debt of $2.47 billion - gearing of 33.6% within medium-term target of 30-35%
>Earnings per share of 27.1 cps, down 30.2% on the same period last year
>No interim dividend declared

Ryman Healthcare (Ryman) has reported IFRS profit of $186.7 million, which includes fair value movements of investment properties, down 3.8% on the same period last year. Underlying profit of $139.2 million was up 0.3%, driven by solid growth in operating EBITDA, offset by lower new sales at sites under development.
The real estate market has been through a challenging period and the retirement sector has not been immune from this. This was relative to a buoyant first half last year and has resulted in booked sales of occupational rights agreements (ORAs) of 699, down 9.5% on the prior corresponding period.

Ryman continues to make progress on the strategy reset outlined at the equity raise. Reflecting an increased focus on cash flow and capital management, free cash flow improved by $138.5 million from -$296.9 million in 1H23 to -$158.4 million in 1H24. This was driven by improved cash flows from existing operations and a reduction in the net spend on development activity.

Cash receipts from residents were up a pleasing 21.6% to $868.9 million driven by strong settled sales of ORAs off the back of move-in activity during the half. This was a key driver of the improvement in free cash flow from existing operations and a reduction in receivables.

Ryman Group Chief Executive Officer, Richard Umbers said, “This result has been delivered during a period of challenging market conditions including a subdued housing market for the majority of the period. While our financial results are steady on the prior year, we continue to make progress on resetting the business and executing the strategy which was communicated at the time of the equity raise.”

Development update

“Following the raise, Ryman is in a reset phase with our near-term focus on matching our build programme to sales activity and reprioritising this programme to improve cash flow from development activity,” said Mr Umbers.

A significant level of development is underway with 14 sites in the construction phase, including Mulgrave which recently commenced. Ryman opened three new villages in 1H24, welcoming its first residents into Northwood (Christchurch), and Patrick Hogan (Cambridge) in New Zealand and Bert Newton (Highett) in Australia.
He added: “As part of the reprioritisation, Ringwood East, Takapuna and future stages at Murray Halberg have been put on hold. In addition, Kohimarama and Newtown are being held for sale as they no longer meet our investment criteria.”

Ryman will continue to review its land bank in light of predicted market conditions and with a focus on capital management. A portfolio increase of 650-750 units and beds is anticipated for FY24, down on previous guidance. The medium-term outlook for the build programme will be reviewed at the full-year result.

Village operations

Occupancy within care centres has improved to 96%, up 2 percentage points on the same period last year, and back to pre-COVID levels.
Ryman continues to lead the sector in care quality with 85% of its New Zealand care centres receiving the 4-year Ministry of Health certification (highest certification), the highest amongst all of the large providers. Ryman recently received first-time 3-year certification (highest certification) for all of its Australian care centres audited by the Australian Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission.

Ryman continues to innovate and improve its care services, with significant growth across its homecare offering in Australia. Residents receiving funded home care packages increased by 45% to 192 in the period.

Capital management

Net interest-bearing debt at September 2023 was $2.47 billion, up from $2.30 billion at March 2023. Gearing of 33.6% sits within the company’s medium-term target of 30-35%.

The refinance of Ryman’s banking facilities in September increased the average tenor across all debt facilities from 2.6 to 3.6 years and amended the ICR covenant. Ryman was compliant with all debt covenants at 30 September. Facility headroom, including cash, stood at $533.9 million at September 2023.
No interim dividend has been declared for 1H24.

Chair Dean Hamilton commented, “The board has determined that it is in the best interests of the company to suspend dividends as the business goes through a reset; working to improve operating cash flows, completing delayed capital-intensive main buildings, maintaining prudent financial headroom and determining a cadence and financial envelope for future build rates. The current intention is to undertake a review of the dividend policy at FY26. Any future dividend policy is expected to be based on cash flow.”

“The financial focus of the board is to strengthen cash flow outcomes from existing operations and deliver value-accretive new developments. We remain positive about the longer-term demographic trends supporting the sector and believe Ryman is in a strong position to capitalise on the opportunity that this presents.”

Board and management changes

Ryman continues to refresh leadership in both board and key management roles. Rob Woodgate has now commenced in his role as Group CFO.
"As previously announced, we are delighted that Kate Munnings has joined the board. Kate brings extensive commercial healthcare experience from her senior roles at Virtus and Ramsay as well as construction and property management experience from prior roles. With two directors retiring in calendar year 2024, we are underway with determining the right mix of skills and experiences that will contribute to the future of Ryman. Including the recent addition of James Miller and myself, there will have been significant board renewal over a 2-year period," Mr Hamilton said.

Outlook

FY24 underlying profit is expected to be in the range of $300-$330 million (previously $310-$330 million). This wider range reflects the ongoing levels of market uncertainty and dependency on sales in the new year.

Fourteen villages in the construction phase
New Zealand (9)
Lynfield, Auckland (Murray Halberg) * [future stages paused]
Devonport, Auckland (William Sanders) *
Henderson, Auckland (Miriam Corban) *
Havelock North, Hawkes Bay (James Wattie) *
Hobsonville, Auckland (Keith Park) *
Riccarton Park, Christchurch (Kevin Hickman) *
Cambridge, Waikato (Patrick Hogan) *
Northwood, Christchurch *
Takapuna, Auckland [paused]
Australia (5)
Brandon Park, Melbourne (Nellie Melba) *
Ocean Grove, Victoria (Deborah Cheetham) *
Highett, Melbourne (Bert Newton) *
Ringwood East, Melbourne [paused]
Mulgrave, Melbourne
*Village open and under construction

Nine sites in the land bank
New Zealand (5)
Park Terrace, Christchurch
Karori, Wellington
Karaka, Auckland
Rolleston, Canterbury
Taupō, Waikato
Australia (4)
Mt Eliza, Victoria
Essendon, Melbourne
Coburg North, Melbourne
Kealba, Melbourne

[Balance]

And yet more property revaluations to bolster Ryman’s results with negative cashflow.

No wonder the market has no faith in the RVs NTA and valuations!

[Lego_Man]

Interesting that they've thrown the towel in on Kohimarama.

[snigmac]

Dividend suspended until 2026 and with a review scheduled then. Kick in the guts for investors that purchased shared in the last 3 years.

[Balance]

Interesting that they've thrown the towel in on Kohimarama.

Yes, I was wondering why the site has sat undeveloped (save for the roads etc) and silent in the last year.

[snigmac]

Yes, I was wondering why the site has sat undeveloped (save for the roads etc) and silent in the last year.

It looks to be leasehold land and funds have been invested for consent already. Another loss by the Ryman leadership team.

[ronaldson]

It looks to be leasehold land and funds have been invested for consent already. Another loss by the Ryman leadership team.

Correct.

Consented in 2021 under the fast track Covid-19 legislation for 124 units, 98 bed hospital, 74 assisted living units, 192 car parks and the associated facilities. 137 year lease (perpetually renewable) may have been one downside. Had been available for some time for people to register interest in future occupancy, so that may also have disappointed.

Presumably the site is now being marketed. I don't know the original outlay, nor the quantum of costs subsequently incurred, so it would be interesting to learn the actual loss/gain in due course but as with most of these ventures holders never find out and a veil will be drawn.

Ryman Newton, also now apparently held for sale, seems to have been a small former factory site close to Wellington hospital acquired in 2014. Did any development actually occur there?

[winner69]

Bought that Newtown site for $7m off Countdown who had brought a few years earlier.to stop opposition buying it and setting up in competition. Was the old Tip Top bread factory.

Rymans demolished the derelict building last year after it had sat there slowing rotting away and told Council at time no plans to build a multi story building.

Locals always thought a great spot for oldies to live …next door to a supermarket and the hospital and with a funeral place 100 yards up the road waiting for them

[bull....]

Ryman Healthcare is selling or pausing work on five sites
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/ryman-healthcare-cites-challenging-housing-market-in-4pc-net-profit-drop/HZTBLTWJHNAT3GMW4JQIE4CLPU/

[Greekwatchdog]

For bars Review..

OUTPERFORM


Ryman Healthcare (RYM) reported a strong 1H24 result and delivered on all key markers on its path to re-establishing itself as a cash generative, sustainably growing business after three difficult years. Specifically: (1) cash generation from existing operations swung from a negative in 1H23 to +NZ$50m in 1H24; (2) care EBITDA margins are on track to double from ~6% in FY23 to ~12% in FY24, re-tracing almost half of the drop since pre-COVID (~19% in FY20); and (3) RYM reiterated its target to be free cash flow positive in FY25 and onward. It gave substantial additional disclosure to support the credibility of that target. None of the four major listed aged care operators have delivered a single year of positive free cash flow over the last decade. We increase our target price and earnings estimates, and reduce our net debt estimates. Retain OUTPERFORM with an increased target price of NZ$8.60.

What's changed?
Earnings: Annuity EBITDA increased +3%/+6%/+13% due to increased care fees offsetting higher costs
Target price: Increased to NZ$8.60 (from NZ$8.00) due to increased annuity EBITDA and lower net debt estimates.
Focus on cash finally arrives to the aged care sector — new disclosure points to a meaningfully more favourable cash recovery
It took a pandemic, a meaningful housing market downturn, and interest rates rising faster than ever before for the aged care sector in general (and RYM in particular) to switch focus to cash flow. RYM now acknowledges the importance and separately discloses: (1) cash flow from existing operations, with a focus on growing this; (2) cash flow from development, with a focus on fully recovering development capex (including capitalised interest and land acquisitions) from new sales.


RYM currently has 14 villages under construction, the vast majority (likely all) commenced before the current enhanced cash focus came into play. RYM provided new disclosure implying that these 14 villages will recover a cumulative ~90% of development capex, this is above our estimates of ~75%. RYM also stated that these 14 villages will provide a net positive development cash flow of >+NZ$1bn from September 2023 onwards, indicating ~NZ$1.5bn of WIP in these villages, NZ$300m above our estimates. In combination, the new disclosure suggests a more favourable medium-term outlook for cash flow from developments than we had forecast, some of which we have incorporated in our revised forecasts.


What a difference a year makes
A lot has changed for RYM over the past 12 months: (1) due to its capital raise its gearing has fallen from the highest gearing in the sector to the sector's lowest at ~33.5%; (2) it had the worst cash collection of new sales (~66% versus ~90% for its peers) a year ago, it now has the highest; (3) cash conversions of annuity earnings has increased to a clear sector leading position; and (4) after four year years of flat annuity EBITDA, RYM has delivered its second year of solid growth, +14% ​​​​​​​YoY on a 12 month rolling basis.

Forecast changes
We increase our annuity EBITDA estimates over the forecast horizon due to higher care fees more than offsetting increased costs, our DMF and resale estimates are little changed. We reduce our new sales estimates, reflecting both a reduced build rate over the medium term and the cautious tone of management on the current property market. We reduce our interest costs in the income statement materially; however, total interest costs (including capitalised interest) are down only -0%/-6%/-11% over FY24/FY25/FY26 as RYM continues to capitalise >70% of its interest, above prior expectations. RYM indicated it will suspend dividend payments for FY24/FY25 and review its policy again in FY26. We reduce our net debt estimates over the medium term and now forecast a slight falling of net debt from FY24, with the lack of dividends no longer offsetting improved positive free cash flow.

[Jenny Ruth]

Hi. My latest column published this morning on my Substack, Just the Business, looks at how Jarden's Arie Dekker is at last seeing fruits of his campaign to persuade the listed retirement village operators to improve their disclosure. Under the headline: Aiming for transparency from listed retirement village operators, it concludes with a piece of Charlie Munger's wisdom. You can read it here: https://justthebusinessjennyruth.substack.com/p/aiming-for-transparency-from-listed

[snigmac]

Hi. My latest column published this morning on my Substack, Just the Business, looks at how Jarden's Arie Dekker is at last seeing fruits of his campaign to persuade the listed retirement village operators to improve their disclosure. Under the headline: Aiming for transparency from listed retirement village operators, it concludes with a piece of Charlie Munger's wisdom. You can read it here: https://justthebusinessjennyruth.substack.com/p/aiming-for-transparency-from-listed

Thanks for sharing Jenny. That was a good read. Love the quote on EBITA from Charlie Munger.

[winner69]

Jeez, Ryman profit going to be lower than guidance

Sales not as strong as expected and margins down


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/426366/412766.pdf

[Bjauck]

Just a temporary slow down? House sales volumes have been lower than the previous year for some time I think. That must have an effect on the number of ORAs purchased. The housing ponzi scheme is too important to fail. Luxon will defend it I am sure.

[Snoopy]

Jeez, Ryman profit going to be lower than guidance

Sales not as strong as expected and margins down


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RYM/426366/412766.pdf


Yep, the NZME media triumvirate have been doing a good job for their shareholders. People like reading about their house values recovering (Herald). People like hearing about their house values recovering (Hosking). People like repeatedly looking up the internet waiting for confirmation that their house prices have gone up (Oneroof). But in the end it all became exposed as a co-ordinated media beat up. All those oldies looking for that 'pristine price' on their private house market before they move to their premium Ryman accommodation now find they have a hole in their pockets they did not know was there. No surprise.

SNOOPY

[bull....]

wow big shock :scared: not. sales and margins being compressed which is normal for property development company this part of the cycle

conserve the cash

[Rawz]

Shesh. Not good. Bad news. Dont buy.

Buy tower.

[winner69]

CEO Umbers always been a man with I’ll fortune

His run of bad luck continues

[LaserEyeKiwi]

wow big shock :scared: not. sales and margins being compressed which is normal for property development company this part of the cycle

conserve the cash

Don’t hold or follow the retirement sector closely, but I thought the demand / supply of demographic trends would be the core fundamental driver of sector performance, rather than the traditional housing developer cycle.

Think Bjauck & Snoopy have the reasoning down though, wealthy retiring boomers stuck in their homes at present, unwilling to take a price far below there previous peak values, therefore delaying their move into retirement villages.

I would wonder if there maybe is a big catchup event at some point as they eventually get tired of waiting and accept lower prices.

[Toranaman]

CEO Umbers always been a man with I’ll fortune

His run of bad luck continues

Midas touch!
https://www.afr.com/rear-window/rich...0180214-h0w2yi (https://www.afr.com/rear-window/richard-no-numbers-umbers-greatest-hits-atop-myer-20180214-h0w2yi)

[bull....]

Don’t hold or follow the retirement sector closely, but I thought the demand / supply of demographic trends would be the core fundamental driver of sector performance, rather than the traditional housing developer cycle.

Think Bjauck & Snoopy have the reasoning down though, wealthy retiring boomers stuck in their homes at present, unwilling to take a price far below there previous peak values, therefore delaying their move into retirement villages.

I would wonder if there maybe is a big catchup event at some point as they eventually get tired of waiting and accept lower prices.

thats the fundamental problem with some of these people on this forum , they dont get these RV'S make a large chunk of money from property development. demograPHICS is overrated in my opinion on demand perspective

[winner69]

Midas touch!
https://www.afr.com/rear-window/rich...0180214-h0w2yi (https://www.afr.com/rear-window/richard-no-numbers-umbers-greatest-hits-atop-myer-20180214-h0w2yi)

Got the sack shortly after that

[DavidB]

Ouch, I've checked the share price performance of Ryman over the last three years. What an extraordinary destroyer of wealth this stock has been in that time if you have held it. From $15.70 a share on 12 March 2021 to $5.11 a share today at lunchtime. That's down 67.5%. That's got to hurt.

I have always viewed all of the retirement villages as first and foremost a play on property development and the real estate market. When house prices are rising the profits via revaluations will roll on in, because the villas, units, apartments, etc they get revalued upwards as well. But when the market turns or stalls they don't.

The fundamentals of the underlying business as a retirement village, rest home, hospital-level care provider, etc., are much less attractive and this has been evident in the financial returns that are published every year. This sector, particularly the rest homes and the hospitals is notoriously difficult to run at a profit, being as it is, largely dependent on Government subsidies. The government is never generous in this regard, more so in the coming years because basically, the Government is broke (thanks Labour).

As for the baby boom being the demographic to drive profits going forward. It's too early for that. About 1/4 to 1/3 of the baby boomers have yet to reach the age of 65, they are still working, well most of them are. None have yet turned 80. So it will be some years yet before that cohort of the population will be ready for retirement village living which in the main attractes those over the age of 75, and particularly 80.

[Toranaman]

Ouch, I've checked the share price performance of Ryman over the last three years. What an extraordinary destroyer of wealth this stock has been in that time if you have held it. From $15.70 a share on 12 March 2021 to $5.11 a share today at lunchtime. That's down 67.5%. That's got to hurt.

I have always viewed all of the retirement villages as first and foremost a play on property development and the real estate market. When house prices are rising the profits via revaluations will roll on in, because the villas, units, apartments, etc they get revalued upwards as well. But when the market turns or stalls they don't.

The fundamentals of the underlying business as a retirement village, rest home, hospital-level care provider, etc., are much less attractive and this has been evident in the financial returns that are published every year. This sector, particularly the rest homes and the hospitals is notoriously difficult to run at a profit, being as it is, largely dependent on Government subsidies. The government is never generous in this regard, more so in the coming years because basically, the Government is broke (thanks Labour).

As for the baby boom being the demographic to drive profits going forward. It's too early for that. About 1/4 to 1/3 of the baby boomers have yet to reach the age of 65, they are still working, well most of them are. None have yet turned 80. So it will be some years yet before that cohort of the population will be ready for retirement village living which in the main attractes those over the age of 75, and particularly 80.


But how come Summerset can perform so well in the same market?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/496404/summerset-pleased-with-half-year-results-on-track-to-deliver-more-than-600-units-this-year

[ronaldson]

Shesh. Not good. Bad news. Dont buy.

Buy tower.

Correct Rawz. And don't forget to at least be a fly on the wall at the AGM on Wednesday morning!

[Mr Slothbear]

Got the sack shortly after that


he should get the sack from ryman in my view.

he is not the right fit and his experience isn’t relevant.

that and i have not seen any positive results from him in anything hes done

[Bjauck]

But how come Summerset can perform so well in the same market?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/496404/summerset-pleased-with-half-year-results-on-track-to-deliver-more-than-600-units-this-year That was a story from August last year. It will be interesting to see if Summerset actually delivers on its forecast from back then.

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars take on it

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) downgraded its expectations for FY24 underlying earnings by -13% at the midpoint due to weak new sales volumes and weak resales margins. A silver lining is that net debt is expected to remain stable, likely due to lower capex. The relative weakness in new sales (still expected to be up ~+50% from the very weak first half, but down ~-10% versus 2H23) is not that surprising, in particular as it appears to be concentrated in a few villages where the main building is yet to be completed. It is, however, disappointing that it appears to have caught RYM off guard. The housing market has not deteriorated further since RYM communicated its 2H24 expectations in November 2023, and neither does RYM indicate any further delays to its main buildings. Over the last 18 to 24 months RYM's income statement new sales have disappointed, whilst its cash collection of new sales has improved from substantially below 100% to substantially above. This change has coincided with a shift in focus from underlying earnings to cash generation. We believe this change in focus is the right one but the transition is painful. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating with a reduced target price of NZ$8.25.
link


NZX Code
RYM


Share price
NZ$4.88


Target price
NZ$8.25 (from 8.80)


Risk rating
Medium


C&ESG rating
C+


Market cap
NZ$3,356m


Avg daily turnover
659.4k (NZ$3,808k)






link


Financials: Mar/
23A
24E
25E
26E


Rev (NZ$b)
0.927
0.954
1.059
1.159


NPAT* (NZ$m)
301.9
273.4
324.3
376.6


EPS* (NZc)
58.5
39.8
47.2
54.8


DPS (NZc)
8.8
0.0
0.0
16.4


Imputation (%)
0
0
0
0




*Based on normalised profits







link


Valuation (x)
23A
24E
25E
26E


PE
8.3
12.3
10.3
8.9


EV/EBIT
16.7
18.7
15.9
14.0


EV/EBITDA
14.7
15.9
13.8
12.2


Price / NTA
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5


Cash div yld (%)
1.8
0.0
0.0
3.4


Gross div yld (%)
1.8
0.0
0.0
3.4











What's changed?


Earnings: FY24/FY25/FY26 underlying earnings reduced by -15%/-11%/-8% driven by lower new sales and resale gains
Target price: Reduced to NZ$8.25 from NZ$8.80 due to lower annuity EBITDA estimates.


Midpoint of underlying earnings downgraded by -13%; net debt a positive, in particular relative to consensus
The two cited drivers of RYM's downgrade were: (1) slower-than-expected new sales, and (2) lower resale margins. New sales in 2H24 are still expected to be up ~+50% versus its very weak 1H24, but down ~-10% versus 2H23. New sales below prior expectations appears to be driven primarily by slow sales in a few villages where the main building is yet to be completed. Weaker resale margins is attributed to mix, but we suspect general market weakness has also played a part. RYM also stated FY24 net debt should be flat on 1H24, this was in-line with our prior expectations despite substantially lower new sales, likely driven by lower-than-expected capex. Cash flow breakeven over 2H24 bodes well for RYM's medium-term target of being free cash flow positive in FY25.

Accounting new sales below expectations but cash generation ahead — paying for old sins of early revenue recognition
RYM has a history of (very) early revenue recognition, at times recognising sales of units up to a year before cash settlement. After resetting the strategy, switching focus from underlying earnings to actual cash generation, the tables have completely turned. During FY21 and FY22 RYM collected ~85% of new sales in cash, but the last 18 months (reported) have seen RYM collect ~115% of recognised new sales revenue. While RYM's profit downgrade was disappointing, we suspect similar dynamics are at play during the current period. With a sales force now more focused on selling units out of inventory and settling for cash, and less focused on collecting fully refundable deposits, reported new sales could suffer while cash collections fare better.

[bull....]

Ouch, I've checked the share price performance of Ryman over the last three years. What an extraordinary destroyer of wealth this stock has been in that time if you have held it. From $15.70 a share on 12 March 2021 to $5.11 a share today at lunchtime. That's down 67.5%. That's got to hurt.

I have always viewed all of the retirement villages as first and foremost a play on property development and the real estate market. When house prices are rising the profits via revaluations will roll on in, because the villas, units, apartments, etc they get revalued upwards as well. But when the market turns or stalls they don't.

The fundamentals of the underlying business as a retirement village, rest home, hospital-level care provider, etc., are much less attractive and this has been evident in the financial returns that are published every year. This sector, particularly the rest homes and the hospitals is notoriously difficult to run at a profit, being as it is, largely dependent on Government subsidies. The government is never generous in this regard, more so in the coming years because basically, the Government is broke (thanks Labour).

As for the baby boom being the demographic to drive profits going forward. It's too early for that. About 1/4 to 1/3 of the baby boomers have yet to reach the age of 65, they are still working, well most of them are. None have yet turned 80. So it will be some years yet before that cohort of the population will be ready for retirement village living which in the main attractes those over the age of 75, and particularly 80.

yep agree totally.
I see the baby boomer demographic as a bell curve ie peak demand at some point followed by a big slump which translates to RV's Future value following the same bell curve.

[Toddy]

I'm not invested in RYM. But have exposure to the sector through Ift.

It's a pretty complex model and predicting demand is a mine field.

For instance, how many followers on here would cough up the cash to live in a retirement village ( for self or parents) and destroy the wealth from your hard work investing.

Me, never. My parents, no, in laws no.

[alokdhir]

I'm not invested in RYM. But have exposure to the sector through Ift.

It's a pretty complex model and predicting demand is a mine field.

For instance, how many followers on here would cough up the cash to live in a retirement village ( for self or parents) and destroy the wealth from your hard work investing.

Me, never. My parents, no, in laws no.

Many will ...as there comes a time when convenience and safety and quality of life etc takes precedence over accumulating more wealth

[Bjauck]

I'm not invested in RYM. But have exposure to the sector through Ift.

It's a pretty complex model and predicting demand is a mine field.

For instance, how many followers on here would cough up the cash to live in a retirement village ( for self or parents) and destroy the wealth from your hard work investing.

Me, never. My parents, no, in laws no. I am definitely thinking of it for ourselves when I am eligible. A lock up and leave so that we can travel health permitting.

A lot of the value of my house has come from artificially restricted land supply, government policy, and reserve bank guaranteed inflation and realistically not from my hard work. So I think I would be happy to let the village take over some of the hassles of home ownership and maintenance in exchange for a management fee. How realistic is to expect the super-inflationary (in excess of wage increases) of house price increases of the past decades to continue for the next decades? Even for NZ prices, there will be a limit.

[Rawz]

I'm not invested in RYM. But have exposure to the sector through Ift.

It's a pretty complex model and predicting demand is a mine field.

For instance, how many followers on here would cough up the cash to live in a retirement village ( for self or parents) and destroy the wealth from your hard work investing.

Me, never. My parents, no, in laws no.

I agree. Although i might send the in laws to one looool

[Bjauck]

I agree. Although i might send the in laws to one looool Be careful for what you want. Once they move in, They may have more time to come and visit more frequently!

[Leemsip]

yep agree totally.
I see the baby boomer demographic as a bell curve ie peak demand at some point followed by a big slump which translates to RV's Future value following the same bell curve.

This isnt the case bull. Whole population is older for longer, even when the boomers die out. Population is permanently older as the 80-100 cohort gets huge.

[Toddy]

I recall one of the stats from a documentary I watched on Netflix about the lingtivity of life.

Once you move into a retirement village then you statistically you don'tive as long. It was all based around keeping active if you stay in your own place.

I had never really thought about it before.

[winner69]

I recall one of the stats from a documentary I watched on Netflix about the lingtivity of life.

Once you move into a retirement village then you statistically you don'tive as long. It was all based around keeping active if you stay in your own place.

I had never really thought about it before.

Villages need to keep turnover up eh ….recycle cash faster

[bull....]

This isnt the case bull. Whole population is older for longer, even when the boomers die out. Population is permanently older as the 80-100 cohort gets huge.

average age of life in a RV is 8yrs approx .... says it all

stay in your own property as long as possible i reckon , not an institution

[Greekwatchdog]

average age of life in a RV is 8yrs approx .... says it all

stay in your own property as long as possible i reckon , not an institution

Institution??? Its a life style choice Bull thats why the residents take it up.

[Sideshow Bob]

average age of life in a RV is 8yrs approx .... says it all

stay in your own property as long as possible i reckon , not an institution

Don't let the old man in.

[percy]

My 83 year old brother and his wife are looking to move into a retirement village.
Reasons.
He has had a health scare requiring a pace maker to be fitted.
Wife had a bad fall last year.
A lot of their friends have died and few people now visit them.
A friend lives in a retirement village.Always a lot of organised activities,such as trips,outings,card schools,bowls and walks etc.
So livestyle ,safety and companionship are the driving forces.
The unit they are looking at in Hobart is approx $200,000 less they what their house will sell for.
DMF is 8% a year to max of 40% after 5 years.

[alokdhir]

average age of life in a RV is 8yrs approx .... says it all

stay in your own property as long as possible i reckon , not an institution

Average life is 8 years shows people moving in too late ...check SUM's average life ...I am sure it will be much more then 8

[Muse]

I can't wait to move into a village when the time comes.

I really enjoyed living in the halls of residence during university.....so hoping it will be back to the future. No more cooking care of the cafeteria, cleaners, parties, drinking, girls. Just need to find the village with the best 'vibe'

Jest aside I think some people are more naturally inclined to having that social aspect as they age. I think I will be suited to it, even if is a far cry from the halcyon days.

[LAC]

Wow SP taking a hammering this morning

[Bjauck]

I recall one of the stats from a documentary I watched on Netflix about the lingtivity of life.

Once you move into a retirement village then you statistically you don'tive as long. It was all based around keeping active if you stay in your own place.

I had never really thought about it before. I would like to know the research behind that doc. How would they know how long those people would have lived had they not moved into a RV. They would have to be assiduous in eliminating as factors the difference in morbidities of new residents compared with the test group from the general population.

[Blue Skies]

I can't wait to move into a village when the time comes.

I really enjoyed living in the halls of residence during university.....so hoping it will be back to the future. No more cooking care of the cafeteria, cleaners, parties, drinking, girls. Just need to find the village with the best 'vibe'

Jest aside I think some people are more naturally inclined to having that social aspect as they age. I think I will be suited to it, even if is a far cry from the halcyon days.



This is true, there's an epidemic of loneliness & a driver of people moving to RV's. Loneliness is a killer too.
Ive heard numerous cases from friends who's widowed parent or even couples have found a new lease of life with new friends since they moved into an RV.
That's why I lot of the marketing of RV's revolves around the social aspect.

[ronaldson]

My 83 year old brother and his wife are looking to move into a retirement village.
Reasons.
He has had a health scare requiring a pace maker to be fitted.
Wife had a bad fall last year.
A lot of their friends have died and few people now visit them.
A friend lives in a retirement village.Always a lot of organised activities,such as trips,outings,card schools,bowls and walks etc.
So livestyle ,safety and companionship are the driving forces.
The unit they are looking at in Hobart is approx $200,000 less they what their house will sell for.
DMF is 8% a year to max of 40% after 5 years.

40% is far too high for a DMF even if it accrues over 5 years. Surely that is an example of an Australian operator - the NZ model will kill them in direct competition!

But I will be 77 in May and have looked at many villages in Auckland and elsewhere just in case circumstances change. The facilities do vary, but I would be prepared to commit to a preferred choice if needs be, partnered or not at the time. An Apartment or Villa will not be for everyone but you can't ignore the sheer number of residents who have voted "Yes". Of course a care suite is another option altogether, based upon health needs.

[Toranaman]

That was a story from August last year. It will be interesting to see if Summerset actually delivers on its forecast from back then.

Looks like they did

https://www.thepress.co.nz/business/350192048/summerset-overcomes-challenges-post-record-profit

[nztx]

Meanwhile in Ryman Land:


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/ryman-healthcare-pausing-120-million-plans-for-takapuna-construction-site/WJCJTJ22RFEU5KMQVHKAWJOZP4/

Ryman Healthcare pausing $120 million plans for Takapuna construction site


[NZH Article Paywalllled for those who need to get a licence to view]

[Mr Slothbear]

Meanwhile in Ryman Land:


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/ryman-healthcare-pausing-120-million-plans-for-takapuna-construction-site/WJCJTJ22RFEU5KMQVHKAWJOZP4/

Ryman Healthcare pausing $120 million plans for Takapuna construction site


[NZH Article Paywalllled for those who need to get a licence to view]


would appreciate if anyone is able to give cliffnotes

[Newman]

NZ Herald: "Ryman would be selling two sites and deferring work on another three" : Land at Kohimarama and in Newtown (Wellington) for sale, and pausing work at Takapuna, Ringwood East village (Melbourne), and Murray Halberg Village in Lynfield.

[Newman]

NZ Herald: Summerset Group boss Scott Scoullar explains why profit rose https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/summerset-group-boss-scott-scoullar-explains-why-profit-rose/QTDVOQMICVCEXD34VY4R27W2V4/

Q: Your revaluations went up, why when other listed are down?

A: Obviously, part of that is driven by us and our investment in building new products. We’ve added so much to the stock in the 2023 year (a $160m valuation uplift).

[whatsup]

Sale today circa $4-55 C R a year ago $5-00 not the greatest investment for S Hers !!

[Toranaman]

Sale today circa $4-55 C R a year ago $5-00 not the greatest investment for S Hers !!

Since CEO change in late 2021 Ryman has lost roughly 70% of its value ($3b+ off market cap) and turnaround plan launched early 2023 has not done anything for SP. Now trading 20% below NTA consistently. Value erosion has been extraordinary in this once stellar company.

[winner69]

Since CEO change in late 2021 Ryman has lost roughly 70% of its value ($3b+ off market cap) and turnaround plan launched early 2023 has not done anything for SP. Now trading 20% below NTA consistently. Value erosion has been extraordinary in this once stellar company.

Poor Mr Umbers …..bad luck / ill fortune seems to follow him around …or he never seems to get lucky

But he’s well paid so he’s probably not worried

[Sideshow Bob]

Poor Mr Umbers …..bad luck / ill fortune seems to follow him around …or he never seems to get lucky

But he’s well paid so he’s probably not worried

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/429876

Ryman Healthcare has announced that Richard Umbers has resigned his position as Group CEO and will be leaving the company. Chair Dean Hamilton will act as Executive Chair and a search for the next Group CEO will commence.

Mr Hamilton said “Richard has led the company through an unprecedented time during the COVID pandemic, maintaining Ryman’s commitment to outstanding care, at the same time as progressing a number of significant changes. On behalf of the Board, I would like to thank Richard for his contribution and commitment to the company and wish him well for the future.”

Ryman is reaffirming its earnings guidance issued on 19 February 2024.

Mr Hamilton said, “Ryman is a proud company with a strong purpose. Kevin Hickman co-founded the company on two fundamental and important objectives that remain relevant to this day – to deliver great care for our residents, and to provide great returns for our shareholders.

“Ryman continues to set the benchmark for retirement living and quality of care for our residents. However, in terms of returns to shareholders we have fallen considerably short in recent years. I look forward to working with the team, and eventually the new Group CEO, as we focus intently on restoring our financial performance and with that our returns to shareholders.”

“We will be providing an update on progress with the full year results announcement on 27 May 2024” Mr Hamilton said.

The Board of Ryman has determined that Mr Hamilton will be a non-independent director whilst he is the Executive Chair. A sub-committee of the Board will oversee the performance of the Executive Chair function during the period, and that committee will comprise independent directors Paula Jeffs (chair and lead independent director), Anthony Leighs and James Miller. Mr Hamilton will be paid a salary to be determined by the Board in coming weeks. He will not participate in any incentive schemes. To create capacity to take up this interim role, Mr Hamilton will temporarily reduce his duties as a director of Auckland International Airport.

Mr Umbers is leaving Ryman in accordance with his contractual terms.

[winner69]

Funny if Brent from Oceania ended up there eh

[Toranaman]

Funny if Brent from Oceania ended up there eh Hopefully they learn from that mistake and appoint a superstar with some industry experience this time.

[kiwikeith]

A common problem with the abrupt departure of a CEO, is that the financial results that follow are often a disaster (possibly priced into the market already in the case of Ryman).

[Balance]

Funny if Brent from Oceania ended up there eh

He will have to pay them to make him CEO!

[Mr Slothbear]

Umbers fired.

don’t often wish for this sort of thing but have wanted him to move on for a while. Great to see strong board leadership here

[winner69]

Market close report

Ryman Healthcare was down 2c to an 11-year low of $4.32 following the sudden departure of chief executive Richard Umbers. Dean Hamilton will become the executive chair while a new chief executive is appointed. Ryman reaffirmed its full-year underlying profit guidance of $265m-$285m.

Sullivan said it’s never comforting “when you see a chief executive leave so quickly, and there must have been some unsettled conversations at the board level about Ryman’s performance.”

He suggested that a further capital raise may be in the offing as Ryman is building faster than it is generating cash at present. Ryman raised $902m on the market in February last year.

[Bikeguy]

Market close report

Ryman Healthcare was down 2c to an 11-year low of $4.32 following the sudden departure of chief executive Richard Umbers. Dean Hamilton will become the executive chair while a new chief executive is appointed. Ryman reaffirmed its full-year underlying profit guidance of $265m-$285m.

Sullivan said it’s never comforting “when you see a chief executive leave so quickly, and there must have been some unsettled conversations at the board level about Ryman’s performance.”

He suggested that a further capital raise may be in the offing as Ryman is building faster than it is generating cash at present. Ryman raised $902m on the market in February last year.

How does one get visibility on those financials to determine it has a cashflow issue ?

[kiwikeith]

Market close report

Ryman Healthcare was down 2c to an 11-year low of $4.32 following the sudden departure of chief executive Richard Umbers. Dean Hamilton will become the executive chair while a new chief executive is appointed. Ryman reaffirmed its full-year underlying profit guidance of $265m-$285m.

Sullivan said it’s never comforting “when you see a chief executive leave so quickly, and there must have been some unsettled conversations at the board level about Ryman’s performance.”

He suggested that a further capital raise may be in the offing as Ryman is building faster than it is generating cash at present. Ryman raised $902m on the market in February last year.

That left me gobsmacked. I was under the impression that the last capital raise would be enough to see them through.

[Ferg]

That left me gobsmacked. I was under the impression that the last capital raise would be enough to see them through.
Weren't most of those funds used to pay for the USPP fiasco?

[kiora]

"Lessons from Ryman Healthcare"
https://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/scrip-article/lessons-from-ryman-healthcare/

[winner69]

Ryman moving on from having a retailer as an CEO to having an agriculture man as CEO

Hamilton last exec role was with Silver Fern Farms ..turned that around

But apparently a good guy and well respected só Ryman in good hands . even though he doesnt seem to have had much impact have at Warehouse Group

Get behind Dean I say

[Daytr]

So they have a market cap of $3Bln and raised $900M only a bit of a year ago.

[Jenny Ruth]

Hi all. My latest column published on my Substack, Just the Business, looks at the man who has just become executive chair after the abrupt departure of former chief executive Richard Umbers.
The headline is: Who is Dean Hamilton and is he up to the Ryman challenge?

You can find it here: https://substack.com/@justthebusinessjennyruth

[Toranaman]

Hi all. My latest column published on my Substack, Just the Business, looks at the man who has just become executive chair after the abrupt departure of former chief executive Richard Umbers.
The headline is: Who is Dean Hamilton and is he up to the Ryman challenge?

You can find it here: https://substack.com/@justthebusinessjennyruth

Welcome back Jenny you have been MIA. Where was your analysis of the Umbers appointment and performance over the past 2 years?

[Lego_Man]

This price action is looking pretty dire - full fledged breakdown now. What is going on?

[Leemsip]

higher for longer... Oz real estate stonks not looking good either..

[Baa_Baa]

This price action is looking pretty dire - full fledged breakdown now. What is going on?

Very ugly, 75% down from ATH and plumbing SP not seen since 2012. RYM maybe in more trouble than thought, the cap raise was mostly used to pay that stupid USA debt. Maybe market thinking another cap raise coming?

[Perky]

It probably didn’t help some analyst suggested the other day they might need to cap raise again

[Bjauck]

Welcome back Jenny you have been MIA. Where was your analysis of the Umbers appointment and performance over the past 2 years?
Her posts are self-adverts as you need to pay for her analysis these days.

[Bjauck]

Ryman was all about growth ambition until the Covid era.

70% growth target by 2020 in 2015. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/ryman-sets-70-growth-target/RHQGES6P22LTEEF22BMITFHPHY/

The sky was never going to be the limit for house price inflation. Indigestion was going to set in. Although hindsight is great!

[ronaldson]

Close at $4.15 - this is a new 10+ year low point! No one predicted this during the stock's halcyon days. Perhaps growth should no longer be the ambition after a certain point - look for the sweet spot, scale back the overhead/development and treat shareholders with the respect they deserve.

Board members in this sector are captured by a vision of the social good to be achieved, which leads to excessive exposure to various risks inherent. And there are an escalating number of unlisted operators intent on eating their lunch in the more upmarket segment - think Hoppers, Generus Group and a number of others with scale who leave the care component alone. And quite a few now advertise that they share profits on exit as well, which has the capability to impact the conventional RV model.

[Lego_Man]

Her posts are self-adverts as you need to pay for her analysis these days.

Yes, but her articles are among the best in the industry so i don't begrudge her that.

[Ggcc]

Close at $4.15 - this is a new 10+ year low point! No one predicted this during the stock's halcyon days. Perhaps growth should no longer be the ambition after a certain point - look for the sweet spot, scale back the overhead/development and treat shareholders with the respect they deserve.

Board members in this sector are captured by a vision of the social good to be achieved, which leads to excessive exposure to various risks inherent. And there are an escalating number of unlisted operators intent on eating their lunch in the more upmarket segment - think Hoppers, Generus Group and a number of others with scale who leave the care component alone. And quite a few now advertise that they share profits on exit as well, which has the capability to impact the conventional RV model.
At this rate Ryman and SUM will be of equal value shortly...... Something someone mentioned would never happen.

[troyvdh]

Im thinking of all those funds ...ironically retirement funds who viewed RYM as "blue stock"...
Again I can fully understand why many people avoid the SM.

In NZ.

[kiwikeith]

Im thinking of all those funds ...ironically retirement funds who viewed RYM as "blue stock"...
Again I can fully understand why many people avoid the SM.

In NZ.

I remember visiting one of the investor presentations run by a sharebroking company. Ryman was one of the presenters and the shares were trading around $15. I said to one of the analysts with the sharebrokers, as I was munching on a free sausage roll, that I could not see how one could justify the share price of Rym based on their financials. The analyst, who was probably about half my age, told me that history indicated that no one regretted buying Rym shares.

[troyvdh]

How was the sausage roll.Remember that about 2011 they had had 1/5 split.
TBH...lets be fair....There are are a huge number of us (born 1956) ...world wide that will probably end up in one of these entites.
Perhaps it has been another case of "irrational exurberance".....as once a wise man said.
BTW Kiwi did you ask that analyst how many shares he had.

[Bjauck]

Close at $4.15 - this is a new 10+ year low point! No one predicted this during the stock's halcyon days. Perhaps growth should no longer be the ambition after a certain point - look for the sweet spot, scale back the overhead/development and treat shareholders with the respect they deserve.

Board members in this sector are captured by a vision of the social good to be achieved, which leads to excessive exposure to various risks inherent. And there are an escalating number of unlisted operators intent on eating their lunch in the more upmarket segment - think Hoppers, Generus Group and a number of others with scale who leave the care component alone. And quite a few now advertise that they share profits on exit as well, which has the capability to impact the conventional RV model.
If there is a growing shortage of beds, perhaps any government reform of the sector’s tax and regulatory framework may investigate mandating a certain minimum ratio of (barely profitable) standard rest home beds per number of ORAs supplied, in exchange for minimal reforms of the ORA system. Otherwise more operators would desert rest homes in favour of profitable ORAs. It would perhaps appeal to the Coalition government if it would mean taxpayers would not be required to further subsidise rest home care to make it appeal to investors.

[Balance]

Sobering to see that Ryman has been the worse performing RV stock since 2022 although all three non-performers, RYM, OCA & ARV, have cost shareholders very very dearly to be in them in the last 2 years+. Have left out SUM as it broke the down trend line in the last year.

Interesting to note that all three follow the overall same trend line (down, up and down) so the sp performance malaise appears to be an industry wide issue rather than just a specific stock.

Market waking up to just how cashflow hungry the three RV operators are and how they have been piling on debt to pay dividends as well as pay for ever more expensive land and developments.

[https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/chart/RYM.NZ#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI 6MSwidGltZVVuaXQiOm51bGwsImNhbmRsZVdpZHRoIjoxNC4zO DAxNjUyODkyNTYxOTgsImZsaXBwZWQiOmZhbHNlLCJ2b2x1bWV VbmRlcmxheSI6ZmFsc2UsImFkaiI6dHJ1ZSwiY3Jvc3NoYWlyI jp0cnVlLCJjaGFydFR5cGUiOiJsaW5lIiwiZXh0ZW5kZWQiOmZ hbHNlLCJtYXJrZXRTZXNzaW9ucyI6e30sImFnZ3JlZ2F0aW9uV HlwZSI6Im9obGMiLCJjaGFydFNjYWxlIjoicGVyY2VudCIsInB hbmVscyI6eyJjaGFydCI6eyJwZXJjZW50IjoxLCJkaXNwbGF5I joiUllNLk5aIiwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJpbmRleCI 6MCwieUF4aXMiOnsibmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicG9zaXRpb24iO m51bGx9LCJ5YXhpc0xIUyI6W10sInlheGlzUkhTIjpbImNoYXJ 0Il19fSwibGluZVdpZHRoIjoyLCJzdHJpcGVkQmFja2dyb3VuZ CI6dHJ1ZSwiZXZlbnRzIjp0cnVlLCJjb2xvciI6IiMwMDgxZjI iLCJzdHJpcGVkQmFja2dyb3VkIjp0cnVlLCJzeW1ib2xzIjpbe yJzeW1ib2wiOiJSWU0uTloiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3l tYm9sIjoiUllNLk5aIiwicXVvdGVUeXBlIjoiRVFVSVRZIiwiZ XhjaGFuZ2VUaW1lWm9uZSI6IlBhY2lmaWMvQXVja2xhbmQifSw icGVyaW9kaWNpdHkiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoid2VlayIsInRpb WVVbml0IjpudWxsfSx7InN5bWJvbCI6Ik9DQS5OWiIsInN5bWJ vbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1ib2wiOiJPQ0EuTloifSwicGVyaW9ka WNpdHkiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoid2VlayIsInRpbWVVbml0Ijp udWxsLCJpZCI6Ik9DQS5OWiIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY29sb 3IiOiIjNzJkM2ZmIiwid2lkdGgiOjIsImlzQ29tcGFyaXNvbiI 6dHJ1ZSwic2hhcmVZQXhpcyI6dHJ1ZSwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY 2hhcnQiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiT0NBLk5 aIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJmaWxsR2FwcyI6ZmFsc2UsI mFjdGlvbiI6ImFkZC1zZXJpZXMiLCJzeW1ib2wiOiJPQ0EuTlo iLCJnYXBEaXNwbGF5U3R5bGUiOiJ0cmFuc3BhcmVudCIsIm5hb WUiOiJPQ0EuTloiLCJvdmVyQ2hhcnQiOnRydWUsInVzZUNoYXJ 0TGVnZW5kIjp0cnVlLCJoZWlnaHRQZXJjZW50YWdlIjowLjcsI m9wYWNpdHkiOjEsImhpZ2hsaWdodGFibGUiOnRydWUsInR5cGU iOiJsaW5lIiwic3R5bGUiOiJzdHhfbGluZV9jaGFydCIsImhpZ 2hsaWdodCI6ZmFsc2V9fSx7InN5bWJvbCI6IkFSVi5OWiIsInN 5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1ib2wiOiJBUlYuTloifSwicGVya W9kaWNpdHkiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoid2VlayIsInRpbWVVbml 0IjpudWxsLCJpZCI6IkFSVi5OWiIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY 29sb3IiOiIjYWQ2ZWZmIiwid2lkdGgiOjIsImlzQ29tcGFyaXN vbiI6dHJ1ZSwic2hhcmVZQXhpcyI6dHJ1ZSwiY2hhcnROYW1lI joiY2hhcnQiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiQVJ WLk5aIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJmaWxsR2FwcyI6ZmFsc 2UsImFjdGlvbiI6ImFkZC1zZXJpZXMiLCJzeW1ib2wiOiJBUlY uTloiLCJnYXBEaXNwbGF5U3R5bGUiOiJ0cmFuc3BhcmVudCIsI m5hbWUiOiJBUlYuTloiLCJvdmVyQ2hhcnQiOnRydWUsInVzZUN oYXJ0TGVnZW5kIjp0cnVlLCJoZWlnaHRQZXJjZW50YWdlIjowL jcsIm9wYWNpdHkiOjEsImhpZ2hsaWdodGFibGUiOnRydWUsInR 5cGUiOiJsaW5lIiwic3R5bGUiOiJzdHhfbGluZV9jaGFydCIsI mhpZ2hsaWdodCI6ZmFsc2V9fV0sImV2ZW50TWFwIjp7ImNvcnB vcmF0ZSI6eyJkaXZzIjp0cnVlLCJzcGxpdHMiOnRydWV9LCJza WdEZXYiOnt9fSwiY3VzdG9tUmFuZ2UiOnsic3RhcnQiOjE2NDE wMzQ4MDAwMDAsImVuZCI6MTcxMzAwOTYwMDAwMH0sInJhbmdlI jp7ImR0TGVmdCI6IjIwMjEtMTItMzFUMTE6MDA6MDAuNzIzWiI sImR0UmlnaHQiOiIyMDI0LTA0LTI2VDExOjU5OjAwLjcyM1oiL CJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJwZXJ pb2QiOjF9LCJwYWRkaW5nIjowfX0-

[kiwikeith]

How was the sausage roll.Remember that about 2011 they had had 1/5 split.
TBH...lets be fair....There are are a huge number of us (born 1956) ...world wide that will probably end up in one of these entites.
Perhaps it has been another case of "irrational exurberance".....as once a wise man said.
BTW Kiwi did you ask that analyst how many shares he had.

Yeah the free sausage roll was great. The stock brokers know how to put on a good feed. I did not ask the analyst, who looked to be still in his 20s, if he actually owned any shares in Rym. Gordon MacCleod presented for Ryman and he was an impressive speaker. The guys from Freightways and one of the power companies (cant remember which one) were pretty good as well - but not as polished as Gordy. I just had the feeling that the analyst thought I was a silly old fool for even questioning the value of the bluest of blue chips- Ryman.