RYM - Ryman Healthcare [Archive] - Page 7

Bobcat.

26-11-2013, 03:44 PM

Buyers back in over the past 15 mins. Back to 770.

Not for long...now trading again at 750. Sellers with enough clout to drive down the price of this stock quickly have been around for a few days now. Check the chart. Resistance was 810, then 800 and now 770, and a downward trendline is forming. I wouldn't be buying again this week...actually not until that pattern reverses which by my reckoning will most likely be in 2014.

apac

26-11-2013, 04:49 PM

has anyone ever seen 8.8 million shares matched at closing? it's a first for me

apac

26-11-2013, 04:56 PM

12 million now wonder if it will all disappear at 4:59

777

26-11-2013, 04:56 PM

A big buy on market.Sure is going to soak up a lot of sellers.

apac

26-11-2013, 05:01 PM

turnover of $130 million is impressive

Beagle

26-11-2013, 05:06 PM

Massive match in quite a range of stocks at close of business e.g. I noticed this in SKC, MET, RYM, all had massive depth going on on the buy and sell side, WTF is going on ?

Bobcat.

26-11-2013, 05:08 PM

With 497m on issue, I make that a 2.4% trade. Got to be a SSH reduction. Expecting a notice tomorrow.

MET's cross was smaller, but SKC's bigger at 3.4%. Hedge Funds?

stoploss

26-11-2013, 05:09 PM

Massive match in quite a range of stocks at close of business e.g. I noticed this in SKC, MET, RYM, all had massive depth going on on the buy and sell side, WTF is going on ?

Sparky lightening up a bit .....lol

Intel

26-11-2013, 05:13 PM

today was the MSCI semi annual index reviews last day before implementation tomorroow, Ryman went into the MSCI World Index and Sky TV came out... should explain those two at least.

There most likely wont be an SSH, as it will be hundreds of different buyers...

Intel

26-11-2013, 05:16 PM

Oooops Sky City!

jimmyco

26-11-2013, 07:30 PM

Wow 9% of shares traded today with a 10c gain. Do you guys see this as a positive?

winner69

26-11-2013, 07:43 PM

Wow 9% of shares traded today with a 10c gain. Do you guys see this as a positive?

Funds buying because they need to as RYM now in an international index ....not because they want too.

If you ask Hoop nicely he will do one of his OBV charts .... On Balance Volume .... Will look after today and the interpretation of the chart will be positive.

Bobcat.

02-12-2013, 11:46 AM

troyvdh

03-12-2013, 05:18 PM

Just a wee observation...am I correct in stating that RYM ...on most days ...ends the day on greater volume and higher price ????

cheers

bohemian

03-12-2013, 05:43 PM

I follow RYM closely and I think you are right, it seems to tank through the day and finish on a high.

Vaygor1

03-12-2013, 07:28 PM

Just a wee observation...am I correct in stating that RYM ...on most days ...ends the day on greater volume and higher price ????

cheers

I agree too and independently had the same observation some time back... 4 weeks or so. Came to the conclusion that some overseas entity in a different time zone is probably buying up large.

born2invest

04-12-2013, 09:33 AM

RYM is bouncing off a recently established downward trendline (812 - 799 - 775). It would need to break thru this to re-establish its upward price trend enjoyed by many these past few years.

If it doesn't, the bears are in control.

BC

I'm sorry but what on Earth are you talking about?

Are you saying you would rather buy it at a price above $8 rather that $7.75 because it has broken through?

That would be like not buying tomatoes in summer at $2/kg because you want to wait for the price to break through the $3/kg barrier in Autumn because in Winter the price will be $4/kg!

Bobcat.

04-12-2013, 09:40 AM

Not $8, B2I, but through the downward trendline which has now been tested again at 775/780. Anything above that could be positive but if today it falls away and doesn't breach that line, I for one will not be buying.

Buying at a higher price than yesterday is often a good thing since it means that you are buying on the way up. What's more common and more natural psychologically (which is why it's too easy to lose money on trades) is to buy on the way down (i.e. at a cheaper price than yesterday). Supermarket shopping tactics don't work with Equities.

BTW, its pre-market cross is currently set for an open around 768c.

BC

couta1

04-12-2013, 09:46 AM

Harvey Specter

04-12-2013, 09:51 AM

Hi People,Looking for thoughts on the recapitalization of profit concept I have done this with Rym before and see it as a good strategy to use on shares which are going to continue to rise over time, to clarify what I mean is selling shares for higher than purchase price then buying back at slightly lower price and you end up with more shares for same amount of money and profit is hidden in new additional shares, I see no tax implications here until you finally dispose of shares and take profit out(If you are a trader) Did this with PEB recently also but see risk if share price drops and never comes back up to your purchase price,not likely with retirement stock .1. When you sell at a higher price, how do you know they will be avaliable at a lower price?
2. you are selling so depending on you intention etc, you may be subject to tax (in the IRD's eyes) when you sell at a higher price, even though you intend to buy at a lower price.

If you could pull this off with 100% certainty, you have struck investing nirvana. That's the sort of system you could sell on late night TV for $20k.

born2invest

04-12-2013, 09:55 AM

Not $8, B2I, but through the downward trendline which has now been tested again at 775/780. Anything above that could be positive but if today it falls away and doesn't breach that line, I for one will not be buying.

It is just a squiggly line on a screen. Do you really believe that "resistance" and "breakthrough" levels are a way to rationally value what to pay for a share in a business?

Buying at a higher price than yesterday is often a good thing since it means that you are buying on the way up. What's more common and more natural psychologically (which is why it's too easy to lose money on trades) is to buy on the way down (i.e. at a cheaper price than yesterday). Supermarket shopping tactics don't work with Equities.

I'm sorry, but when has buying at a higher price better? If you want to maximise the return on investment, the lower price you pay, the higher the compounded return will be over time.

Supermarket shopping tactics defintely work with equities. It doesn't matter if you are buying socks or stocks, you should always aim to get the best value possible.

Bobcat.

04-12-2013, 10:02 AM

I'm sorry, but when has buying at a higher price better? If you want to maximise the return on investment, the lower price you pay, the higher the compounded return will be over time.

Because of momentum. If momentum is upward then yes today's price may be more than yesterday's but it's also cheaper than tomorrow's.

Likewise, if the momentum is downward, today's price is cheaper than yesterday's, which looks a good time to buy but isn't since tomorrow's price is cheaper still.

Understanding and trading consistent with momentum is how to best make money in most markets. Trying to pick bottoms during downward price movements is not. Nor is trying to pick tops for selling, regardless of momentum. Momentum matters.

BC

couta1

04-12-2013, 10:05 AM

Harvey Specter

04-12-2013, 10:18 AM

Harvey Specter,Thanks for reply, from what I've obserbed retirement stock has runs and rests and its pretty much guaranteed if you sell near top you will buy back cheaper in a short space of time, I've seen this as a consistent pattern over the last couple of years, I guess if its a long term hold then you are just adding more shares so tax not an issue
I know some have had success with the likes of FBU which follows a very large, long cyclical cycle - up to $9ish, then down to $6ish then up then down etc. I am not sure if there is enough down with the villages, they are just a constant upward line with a few breathers in between.

In4a$

04-12-2013, 10:27 AM

Hi People,Looking for thoughts on the recapitalization of profit concept I have done this with Rym before and see it as a good strategy to use on shares which are going to continue to rise over time, to clarify what I mean is selling shares for higher than purchase price then buying back at slightly lower price and you end up with more shares for same amount of money and profit is hidden in new additional shares, I see no tax implications here until you finally dispose of shares and take profit out(If you are a trader) Did this with PEB recently also but see risk if share price drops and never comes back up to your purchase price,not likely with retirement stock .
I have tried it over the years. Sell a few, 1000 or 2000 shares if price spikes, then buy back if takes a dip, been succefull at times but probably only 60% of the time, I often end up buying back at the same price or higher. The hardest part is picking the sell price, last time I tried with RYM, sold at $7.80 but price went to $8.00 so always feel missed out. Brought back at $7.55. Lowers my average buy which is good.

Vaygor1

04-12-2013, 12:10 PM

The problem is a short term buy-sell strategy in less than a minimum 3 month hold period is effectively gambling. Market sentiment can short-term drive a share in any logical or illogical direction... and on top of that the buy-sell approach just feeds the brokers.

My take on the B2I - Bobcat debate here is you are both right.
If you're in it for the long term and base your buy price on fundamentals then be happy to buy on the way down and then buy more if the price drops further. If short term buy-sell trading is your thing then predicting short-term market sentiment is important and as Bobcat points out "The trend is your friend".

For me, I am a long termer. Pay a lot less brokerage, hands are clean from IRD deeming me a trader, and a less risky strategy... but with longer term results. My approach requires a great deal of patience but the results are more certain imho.

Vaygor1

04-12-2013, 12:31 PM

Yes Couta. I read up large on your CNU dilemma in another thread somewhere... don't think it was the CNU thread though.
I don't hold/follow CNU but I am interested (now, with hindsight) to know if cutting your losses and selling CNU when you did was the right move. I can't remember what price you got out at compared to the price now sorry.

couta1

04-12-2013, 12:35 PM

Vagor 1, I got out at 2.07 so if I was still holding would be sitting on an extra 68k paper loss than when I sold out so I think my decision was the right one with no clear path ahead for the stock,cheers

cyclist

04-12-2013, 09:55 PM

Consumer in Feb 2013 produced a comparison of retirement villages charges which can be found here http://www.consumer.org.nz/reports/retirement-villages/market-growth . In their table it claims that any capital loss on resale is paid by MET residents in addition to the up to 30% amortisation of original purchase price. RYM and SUM residents are not liable for capital loss (according to this table). In the table, the only other provider to charge for capital losses is BUPA.

I still have not seen current licence agreements. I imagine they can change at any time. In a static or declining property market, whether an operator has an additional charge for decline in value could have a material bearing on a prospective resident's choice of operator.

I contacted SUM about this, and they confirmed that the resident is not liable for any capital loss. They pointed out that the average tenure of 6-8 years gives them a level of protection against short-term market fluctuations. i.e. unlikely that an occupation right that was last sold 6-8 years ago, would presently be worth less than the previous price.

(p.s. Wrong thread for SUM, but the principal applies to all).

Vaygor1

05-12-2013, 01:19 PM

....i.e. unlikely that an occupation right that was last sold 6-8 years ago, would presently be worth less than the previous price.

(p.s. Wrong thread for SUM, but the principal applies to all).

Instead of unlikely, I would say almost a dead cert.
Referring to the chart below from http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/key_graphs/house_prices_values/
For RYM or SUM to have made a loss on capital, you would need to find any 8 year period where the area between the blue line and the zero line is greater on the negative side of zero than the positive side.... no need to get the ruler and calculator out.

5151

Bjauck

05-12-2013, 01:52 PM

Instead of unlikely, I would say almost a dead cert.
Referring to the chart below from http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/key_graphs/house_prices_values/
For RYM or SUM to have made a loss on capital, you would need to find any 8 year period where the area between the blue line and the zero line is greater on the negative side of zero than the positive side.... no need to get the ruler and calculator out.

5151
Certainly your stats show for NZ as a whole it would look like almost a dead cert that there would be no capital loss after 7 years...NZ stats are of course heavily influenced by Auckland...so for some other regions it would not have been quite the same dead cert.

Interestingly it was MET in Consumer's table that were shown to charge the outgoing resident for any capital loss (in addition to the amortisation). MET has much of its investment in the Auckland market. As for the future...will the next 7 years see a dead certainty for continuing capital growth in Auckland and the rest of the country? We have had a period of historically low interest rates helping to boost property prices...will that continue for the next 7 years? Whether or not a company charges for capital losses may increasingly become a relevant issue for those contemplating a move into a retirement village.

Vaygor1

05-12-2013, 02:50 PM

Certainly your stats show for NZ as a whole it would look like almost a dead cert that there would be no capital loss after 7 years...NZ stats are of course heavily influenced by Auckland...so for some other regions it would not have been quite the same dead cert.

Interestingly it was MET in Consumer's table that were shown to charge the outgoing resident for any capital loss (in addition to the amortisation). MET has much of its investment in the Auckland market. As for the future...will the next 7 years see a dead certainty for continuing capital growth in Auckland and the rest of the country? We have had a period of historically low interest rates helping to boost property prices...will that continue for the next 7 years? Whether or not a company charges for capital losses may increasingly become a relevant issue for those contemplating a move into a retirement village.

Yes Bjauck, it would be interesting to see the same graph on a region-by-region and/or city-by-city basis.
My view is that even if Auckland had a real down period that was long lasting, capital growth would be unlikely to go negative if measured over 7 years, and if so, not by much. Meanwhile, the rest of the country will likely play catch-up, which it normally seems to do in the years following Auckland bolting ahead. RYM is well diversified in this respect plus they are adding Victoria Australia into the mix.

Looking at the graph, and using the fact that RYM listed in June 1999, it appears the most recent 7-8 years should have been the worst in RYM's history for gains on Capital Growth. Not bad given their results over the same period. My calcs on RYM's EPS growth over 8 year periods, commencing each year since listing, seems to back this up.

Can't figure out why MET don't adopt the same policy as SUM & RYM. An indicator that MET is too risk averse?

Bjauck

05-12-2013, 04:34 PM

Can't figure out why MET don't adopt the same policy as SUM & RYM. An indicator that MET is too risk averse?
Sometime ago (sorry can't provide a ref) I read that Auckland, measured since 1945, historically on average, has an additional 1% pa in house price growth compared with NZ-wide figures.

Perhaps RYM and SUM are so confident of their ability to build good villages in desirable locations that they feel that even in a prolonged downturn, their resale values will hold up better than the surrounding areas especially given the demographic tsunami helping things along! On the other hand MET have had their troubles (in the past hopefully) so that they have decided to doubly cover themselves by including the capital loss clause.

Harvey Specter

05-12-2013, 06:08 PM

I think it is just that MET has been in the game longer than the other two so was able to get away with more, hence had this extremely favourable, but probably unneeded clause. The others entered the market and realised it wasn't really necessary.

Vaygor1

06-12-2013, 12:27 PM

From http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/key_graphs/house_prices_values/ I downloaded the raw data excel file which goes back a further 9 years to 1981 and used it to produce the following chart. Things were even better back then regarding certainty of general NZ housing Capital Growth. Imagine if we had another 1982... wouldn't surprise me in a few years from now when all this money the US is printing distributes itself throughout the globe.

5158

cyclist

06-12-2013, 12:40 PM

Nice stuff thanks Vaygor1. This has answered the remaining question in my mind "what about in the 80's when interest rates went through the roof". But of course interest rates were high in response to rampant inflation, which shows through in the housing statistics too.

I think I am feeling comfortable that this is a low risk for the industry, while noting a small remaining level of discomfort when considering traditional housing (un)affordability measures such as price to household income.

Bobcat.

06-12-2013, 01:43 PM

MAC

06-12-2013, 01:49 PM

RYM has again bounced off its newly established downward trendline. Bears are in control and not just because of a drifting DJIA and S&P500. I don't expect it will recover to trade above $7.75 anytime soon.

Bobcat, traditionally RYM has traded with a beta of 0.5 or thereabouts, but have recently been included in a more exposed MSCI index, thus potentially more liquidity, volitility and also possibly higher forward beta, do you think some of the recent volatility is due in part to this ?

Bobcat.

06-12-2013, 01:54 PM

Bobcat, traditionally RYM has traded with a beta of 0.5 or thereabouts, but have recently been included in a more exposed MSCI index, thus potentially more liquidity, volitility and also possibly higher forward beta, do you think some of the recent volatility is due in part to this ?

You could be right re its increased volitility but the trendline remains - it's just bouncing off it within a broader channel, now tracking downward. Take a look at the chart (sorry - I haven't worked out how to best embed one in a post - please help via a private message).

Harvey Specter

11-12-2013, 09:31 AM

I haven't watched yet but here is a talk with the Managing Director: https://nzx.com/listing-insights

troyvdh

12-12-2013, 05:12 PM

...WOW ..did you guys see this..a few minutes ago.

winner69

12-12-2013, 05:16 PM

...WOW ..did you guys see this..a few minutes ago.

Yes ....he was so out lbw ....and wasted a referral as well

Go blackcaps ....roll them

stoploss

12-12-2013, 05:42 PM

couta1

12-12-2013, 05:48 PM

Not sure what's going on but the Bears might have gone into hibernation ........
Looks likes a run of Bulls went through late p.m but otherwise the bids sit at 7.50, Bobcat do you think it might have another run over $8 ?

winner69

12-12-2013, 06:03 PM

Bobcat obviously a short term trader as his newly formed downtrend is only a week or so old ... and MAC is getting worried about increased beta

I have not had any worries as a 'long term' trader .... my long term upward trend (one of those linear regression things that whipmoney would say just got lucky) is well and truly in place as below

For 18 months the RYM share price has not gone beyond 1/2 standard deviation (that's very good) while it has steadily increased at 0.2% a day

Jay

13-12-2013, 08:39 AM

Thanks w69 for the update
Between RYM and PEB it has financed a new bathroom and I still have in $ terms double what I invested in each

Snow Leopard

20-12-2013, 01:35 PM

Rest home chains face legal battle over pay (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11175718)

Ryman (&Metlifecare) mentioned

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

couta1

20-12-2013, 01:56 PM

Rest home chains face legal battle over pay (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11175718)

Ryman (&Metlifecare) mentioned

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
This could work out very positive for the sector if the Govt ends up having to put in more funding to close the pay gap,already Rym are putting in money from profits to increase staff wages, this battle isnt really about the retirement sector but that woman should be paid the same as a man if they are doing the same job which oddly enough they are in this sector already, i know many male caregivers and they are not getting paid more than the woman for the same job,this whole thing is a test case for all work places

Mista_Trix

20-12-2013, 02:07 PM

This could work out very positive for the sector if the Govt ends up having to put in more funding to close the pay gap,already Rym are putting in money from profits to increase staff wages, this battle isnt really about the retirement sector but that woman should be paid the same as a man if they are doing the same job which oddly enough they are in this sector already, i know many male caregivers and they are not getting paid more than the woman for the same job,this whole thing is a test case for all work places

The argument isn't over men and women in the same roles, its over the nature of 'work' itself. Men centric jobs pay themselves more than woman centric jobs do.

Both jobs need to be done. It is disadvantageous to be in a woman centric role (support, service, nurture, type roles). Both male and female centric professions perform roles in society. Why should pay be different between those in a role that generates profits versus those that support society - its a case that takes a holistic look at the nature of 'work' and 'reward'. This is what the argument is about.

Bobcat.

23-12-2013, 03:22 PM

Not sure what's going on but the Bears might have gone into hibernation ........

Don't be so sure, SL.

The charts are showing me staggered resistance - $8.00 then $7.90 then $7.85. Smarter bears sit down every so often before again rising up on their haunches. The big boost in Equity markets last Thursday has done little to boost RYM's sp. If 770 gets broken then that would confirm a downward trend (for the short-term at least).

...of course, if its sp was to break through $7.90 then Bulls may indeed be making a comeback, but don't be surprised if there is some profit taking already underway with this pup which will drive the price south for a while. My best guess (hang me out to dry on it if you must) is a sp closer to $7 by end of January.

BC

couta1

23-12-2013, 05:50 PM

Interesting prediction. We shall await with interest if the $7 for RYM comes to pass!
Yes STC someone else on here predicted that the price would be back to $7 by now but that hasnt happened,it may actually gather momentum come mid Jan but thern again Bobcat was right when he said Ryman was turning a couple of days before the half year results having hit $8.12 a week or so before that and it ended up going to $7.38 so hard to tell i guess

Snow Leopard

23-12-2013, 10:00 PM

Don't be so sure, SL.

The charts are showing me staggered resistance - $8.00 then $7.90 then $7.85. Smarter bears sit down every so often before again rising up on their haunches. The big boost in Equity markets last Thursday has done little to boost RYM's sp. If 770 gets broken then that would confirm a downward trend (for the short-term at least).

...of course, if its sp was to break through $7.90 then Bulls may indeed be making a comeback, but don't be surprised if there is some profit taking already underway with this pup which will drive the price south for a while. My best guess (hang me out to dry on it if you must) is a sp closer to $7 by end of January.

BC

Looks OK from where I am:
5243

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

percy

24-12-2013, 08:48 AM

Always nice to see a director of Ryman buying on market, and in nice volumes too. $116,000 worth of shares.

George Savvides is the relatively recently appointed Australian director. No doubt he is heartened by what he sees in Melbourne.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/RYM/announcements/245613

Google his name, he's quite a well regarded businessman.

Ryman certainly did well to get him to join the board.A very experienced and very highly regarded businessman.
He would have looked very carefully ay Ryman,before deciding to join the board.
As per everything Ryman do,they do it well.

couta1

24-12-2013, 05:50 PM

From the latest edition of the Ryman Times for those who are interested. "In Melbourne Deb Versey and Dale Singleton are busy selling the village as fast as Martyn Osborn and the team can build it. The welcome has certainly been warm over the Tasman and we are becoming more confident that Melbourne is ready for Ryman"ends

blockhead

30-12-2013, 03:03 PM

What are all the piddly numbers of trades going through today, computer manipulation ???

Whatever, might get it over $7.90 today

Vaygor1

31-12-2013, 12:39 AM

What are all the piddly numbers of trades going through today, computer manipulation ???

Whatever, might get it over $7.90 today

Piddly is because it's Christmas/New Year. Piddly trading.. piddle turnover... basically piddle everywhere... nearly all stocks. If one is not on holiday, or not too busy with relatives & friends, then one might take a look at the Bourse, but mostly buying & selling will resume in earnest around 6th Jan.

macduffy

31-12-2013, 08:16 AM

Piddly is because it's Christmas/New Year. Piddly trading.. piddle turnover... basically piddle everywhere... nearly all stocks. If one is not on holiday, or not too busy with relatives & friends, then one might take a look at the Bourse, but mostly buying & selling will resume in earnest around 6th Jan.

........ and really hit its straps once Auckland and Wellington anniversary holidays are out of the way!

:cool:

Vaygor1

04-01-2014, 05:06 PM

This article confirms a number of things I have previously stated about the aged care sector. Ryman and Summerset are going to do very well from the demographics of aged care.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9575199/Shortage-of-rest-home-beds-looms

Thanks Sparky.

Within the article, I am surprised at Nachi Moghe comments given his dismal track-record of continually undervaluing Ryman over the past many years via Morningstar.... as you and I well know.

Even now he has Ryman at REDUCE with a valuation of $6.00/share and this only recently changed from a SELL with a valuation of $5.00/share.

Could there be a chance that he will review his figures to portray reality? I for one wont be holding my breath.

troyvdh

04-01-2014, 05:26 PM

why don't you ring up and talk to that bloke...

oops forgot to say ...ask him what shares he holds in nz....cheers

troyvdh

04-01-2014, 06:52 PM

Mate your missing the point...Im not saying that you need to convince the guy of anything...just listen to the guy...everyone is entitled to an opinion.

The second point...asking what his investments are...if any can often be quite eluminating...do you agree....big picture here mate

couta1

04-01-2014, 07:06 PM

I don't see Ryman dropping much from its current pricing some are saying its overvalued or fully priced but the fact remains people are happy to pay a good price for these shares due to the companies track record and future growth and I see the price at $8.50 or more by the end of the year.

blockhead

08-01-2014, 04:54 PM

Sudden interest in RYM right at the days end ??

In4a$

10-01-2014, 04:06 PM

RYM is popular again, a run at days end and theres buying at $8.05 gosh I like RYM

troyvdh

10-01-2014, 05:24 PM

I do not believe I have seen depth like this ..ever..only 6000 for sale...

Valuegrowth

10-01-2014, 06:21 PM

I have not done any study on this boring stock yet. Remember boring is beautiful. There could be boring stocks and commodities now. They could become hot stocks and commodities in the future. It is time to identify some boring stocks.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions

Harvey Specter

10-01-2014, 08:48 PM

Rumour is they will be breaking ground in their Birkenhead site mid this year. Its a big site too which is good thought it is more Birkdale so the demographic's aren't quite as good. Better than MET's Glenfeild site and a lot bigger.

Harvey Specter

10-01-2014, 09:07 PM

Neither as good as Summersets Hobsonville site though ayeDont know the exact details of the SUM site but The Birkenhead site should have water and bush views, close access to a good cafe and restaurant for those that are able and a quick bus ride into town using the free gold card. Personally Hobsonville is a bit far out from me but I then I prefer being close to the action - things may change once I get my first hip operation ;)

EDIT: Just looked at the SUM site (I think I found it). Water front is very impressive but separated from the rest of the world by a motorway?

couta1

10-01-2014, 09:39 PM

Dont know the exacgroup ofails of the SUM site but The Birkenhead site should have water and busthews, close access to a good cafe and restaurant for those that are able and a quick bus ride into town using the free gold card. Personally Hobsonville is a bit far out from me but I then I prefer being close to the action - things may change once I get my first hip operation ;)

EDIT: Just looked at the SUM site (I think I found it). Water front is very impressive but separated from the rest of the world by a motorway?
I guess every site has attraction to a certain group of people as birds of a feather flock together and with the tailwind and demand in this sector it would have to be a pretty awful site not to be fully occupied

Valuegrowth

10-01-2014, 10:00 PM

Already a hot stock isn't it?? 4 bagger over the last 3 years, 3 bagger over the last 2 years? How much hotter could it get??

turmeric (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?9482-turmeric)

As I said still I have not done any study on this stock yet though I read some articles about the company when market was depressed prior to 2012.

I agree with you because you have done your home work. I like value stocks with growth potential over others. Other thing is we cannot identify top and bottom of market and stocks exactly.

If anything is boring I would like to study it. Kind regards

Microsloth

13-01-2014, 11:40 AM

wow all time high 8.29 this morning

happy holder

Slam dunk

15-01-2014, 09:21 AM

Ryman advertising for a General Foreman for their Howick village build in today's Herald.

tunsbro

16-01-2014, 09:52 AM

I'm getting a Morningstar sell recommendation, target $6. "Downgrade due to price change" Anyone else?

clip

16-01-2014, 09:55 AM

yep shows up on ASB. Generally I wouldn't listen to much that morningstar says, they appear to be consistently wrong

Harvey Specter

16-01-2014, 10:27 AM

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't Morningstar the broker who has consistently gotten this stock completely wrong??This stock? Most stocks.

gv1

16-01-2014, 10:45 AM

They must have taken into account for Deflation.

Disc: not holding.

Vaygor1

16-01-2014, 11:20 AM

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't Morningstar the broker who has consistently gotten this stock completely wrong??

You do not need correcting Tumeric. Just why ASB Securities utiiise their services is beyond me.

I commenced buying Ryman in September 2007 at $2.11 ... for 6 years and 4 months now, and as far as I can recall, MorningDump have never once had a BUY, ACCUMULATE, or HOLD recommendation for Ryman. Roughly 90% of this 6.3 year period they have recommended SELL (as they do as I type), and the remaining 10% of the time they have advised to REDUCE. Even in November of 2008 when you could pick up RYM for $1.38 I am 90% sure they advised a REDUCE.

Following their advise at any time during the last 6 years would have cost me an enormous sum of money. So much in fact, I daren't put it in print.

The only thing consistent about them is the following formula:

MorningDump's RYM Recommended Price x approx 1.3 = Current Market Price.

Vaygor1

16-01-2014, 11:33 AM

I'm getting a Morningstar sell recommendation, target $6. "Downgrade due to price change" Anyone else?

They have had that recommendation for a few months now. Something wrong with either their system or ASB Sec's system I think. I can't see any change (yet) in their commentary or recommended price from the last quarter/third of 2013.

gv1

16-01-2014, 11:36 AM

I don't follow their recommedation, the ones they recommended 5 yrs ago, some went bust.

clip

16-01-2014, 11:39 AM

Vaygor1

16-01-2014, 11:45 AM

There has been a renewed sell recommendation, as the recommendation flag popped up next to them in ASB today

RYM (https://ost.asbbank.co.nz/A8DF076ABD126B1342D64EB6BCAF3612/quotesummary/index/nzx/rym)
Ryman Healthcare
NZX
https://ost.asbbank.co.nz/Content/Style/Images/arrow-down-red.png Sell (https://ost.asbbank.co.nz/A8DF076ABD126B1342D64EB6BCAF3612/quotesummary/index/nzx/rym?tab=5)
15-01-2014
Downgrade due to price change.

$6.00 and SELL and 'Downgrade due to price change' is exactly what it said yesterday, and all of January, and all of December and November 2013.

clip

16-01-2014, 11:47 AM

I don't argue against that, however the reason people are asking about it today is because ASB has popped up the 'new recommendation' flag next to ryman as of TODAY and highlighted the sell button, which it does when a recommendation is added against the stock. perhaps ASB have mucked up and re-loaded it, or perhaps their morningstar 'expert' has told them to re-inforce the rec or something.
(i don't recall seeing the recommendation flag/highlighted sell button yesterday, nor for all of january)

couta1

16-01-2014, 11:50 AM

$6.00 and SELL and 'Downgrade due to price change' is exactly what it said yesterday, and all of January, and all of December and November 2013.
These guys are cowboys living on another planet although I don't think its worth $8.30ish but $6 yeah right

Vaygor1

16-01-2014, 12:20 PM

Ryman looking rather expensive right now possibly a bit of an over run I won't be buying back unless it drops to $8 or under,Sum looking good value still especially with their end of year financials end of Feb

I would be a little bit surprised if RYM dropped below $8.00 .
RYM have been sitting around the $7.75 mark for 12 weeks now, since late October 2013.
RYM's price through time is too consistent in my view to argue that the $7.75 figure is an anomaly
Ryman's current growth rate is 20% per annum.
$7.75 x 1.2 = $9.30 by around October this year, a gain of $1.55 over the 12 month period in question, or 3 cents a week = 13 cents a month

The price today is around $8.30 with a lot more buyers than sellers so if you think it might drop to $8 one month from now, the price needs to effectively drop 43 cents, in 2 months it needs to drop 56 cents. Every week that passes reduces the odds of it getting below $8 again unless there is a Black Tuesday, 9-11, sudden detrimental NZ government regulation, or some other type of Black Swan Event.

Market sentiment due to fear and greed never ceases to amaze me though. If they do drop below $8 then it would be prudent to scoop them up in my view.

In4a$

16-01-2014, 12:45 PM

I would be a little bit surprised if RYM dropped below $8.00 .
RYM have been sitting around the $7.75 mark for 12 weeks now, since late October 2013.
RYM's price through time is too consistent in my view to argue that the $7.75 figure is an anomaly
Ryman's current growth rate is 20% per annum.
$7.75 x 1.2 = $9.30 by around October this year, a gain of $1.55 over the 12 month period in question, or 3 cents a week = 13 cents a month

The price today is around $8.30 with a lot more buyers than sellers so if you think it might drop to $8 one month from now, the price needs to effectively drop 43 cents, in 2 months it needs to drop 56 cents. Every week that passes reduces the odds of it getting below $8 again unless there is a Black Tuesday, 9-11, sudden detrimental NZ government regulation, or some other type of Black Swan Event.

Market sentiment due to fear and greed never ceases to amaze me though. If they do drop below $8 then it would be prudent to scoop them up in my view.
I'm with you Vaygor1, I took a concervative 0.2c a week and reckon RYM will be at least $8.75 in Dec 14. Factor in the Dividends and itll be a nice return, providing there no unforseen disasters.

goldfish

16-01-2014, 12:48 PM

This stock? Most stocks.

Most stocks? All stocks.:p

Vaygor1

16-01-2014, 02:10 PM

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't Morningstar the broker who has consistently gotten this stock completely wrong??
They have had that recommendation for a few months now. Something wrong with either their system or ASB Sec's system I think. I can't see any change (yet) in their commentary or recommended price from the last quarter/third of 2013.

Actually.... I figured it out. There's something wrong with Nachi Moghe's head.
I checked back. It was late November last year that he had RYM at $5 with a SELL.
Here we are less than two months later and the market price is 60% higher than his recommendation.

Refer http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?626-Ryman-Too-boring-to-talk-about&p=443912&viewfull=1#post443912

It was only March last year... 10 months ago... he had $3.50 with a SELL !!!!!!!!!!!!!! Unbelievable.

Refer http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?626-Ryman-Too-boring-to-talk-about&p=396770&viewfull=1#post396770

My comment at the time... "If the price dropped to $3.50 this year, I would do everything in my power to buy the entire company if that were possible".

Vaygor1

16-01-2014, 02:19 PM

tunsbro

17-01-2014, 12:02 PM

Good to know, haven't been tracking this stock until recently and thought the MStar recommendation smelled a bit whiffy.

blocker3

18-01-2014, 06:31 AM

There has been a renewed sell recommendation, as the recommendation flag popped up next to them in ASB today

RYM (https://ost.asbbank.co.nz/A8DF076ABD126B1342D64EB6BCAF3612/quotesummary/index/nzx/rym)
Ryman Healthcare
NZX
https://ost.asbbank.co.nz/Content/Style/Images/arrow-down-red.png Sell (https://ost.asbbank.co.nz/A8DF076ABD126B1342D64EB6BCAF3612/quotesummary/index/nzx/rym?tab=5)
15-01-2014
Downgrade due to price change.

ASB to show a red SELL via Morningstar for Ryman must know something that we do not. Last time they had a SELL, not many people took any notice (which was towards the end of last year) and the share price increased

I have Ryman shares and for what information I see I am holding .

Cheers

Zaphod

18-01-2014, 05:43 PM

ASB to show a red SELL via Morningstar for Ryman must know something that we do not. Last time they had a SELL, not many people took any notice (which was towards the end of last year) and the share price increased

I have Ryman shares and for what information I see I am holding .

Cheers

Will continue to hold as well. At this time, I see absolutely no reason to be concerned about the long-term growth prospects of the firm or SP.

couta1

21-01-2014, 10:41 AM

Observation International buyers driving price up when they are not around price drops as it has over last couple of days compared to Sum which isn't on that index has been very steady ,either that or people are listening to morningstar

winner69

26-01-2014, 03:36 PM

Good one Sparks

A ratio needs to tell a story. This BEP Ratio says for every $100 of assets Ryman delivers $7.30 of EBIT, compared to $3.40 for SUM and $2.00 for MET. Whose best of class - by a long way. That's while it is an indicator of earnings power.

What's good the RYM figure is no flash in the pan. It has been around this for many years - as total assets have been growing at the 16% pa plus - growing asset base generating growing ebit

SUm assets about 36% of RYMs. At their current BEP if they had the same asset base as RYM their EBIT would be $73m and still half of RYMs. It would be hard for SUM to improve what is needed to get to RYM level of profitability,

All this is why RYM has its valuation 'premium'. They will always have this over SUM et all. In some people's eyes RYM will always appear 'overvalued' relative to an 'undervalued' SUM for instance. They deserve that premium

blocker3

29-01-2014, 08:18 AM

QUOTE=blocker3;455609 ASB to show a red SELL via Morningstar for Ryman must know something that we do not. Last time they had a SELL, not many people took any notice (which was towards the end of last year) and the share price increased

I have Ryman shares and for what information I see I am holding .

This is the first time I have placed a comment on my original comment.

Anyway Morningstar via ASB this morning have now changed a SELL to a REDUCE for Ryman

Well Well Well

Cheers

Cheers[/QUOTE]

Slam dunk

30-01-2014, 01:25 PM

ForBar have increased their target price for Ryman from $8.30 to $8.81

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9667000/Ryman-profits-on-track

Bobcat.

30-01-2014, 02:27 PM

ForBar have increased their target price for Ryman from $8.30 to $8.81

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9667000/Ryman-profits-on-track

...and you believe them? Check out what's happened historically to RYM when the DJIA and S&P500 indices turn bearish. Compare the graphs and allow the pattern to influence your trade. Lots of Ma' and Pa' investors in this stock get out when TV1 or TV3 news scares them away...and the institutions aren't much better.

I'm staying clear until at least March.

BC

Bobcat.

30-01-2014, 02:49 PM

Last year had a benign 5% correction, and that was all.

Low cost of credit had the DJIA and S&P500 pumping all the way to year-end with a lot of buying on any slight dip (i.e. bubbling) to the point where the US Equity market is now 200% higher than less than 5 years ago.

There has not been a major correction since 2011 (when the DJIA fell from 12,800 to 10,500). Given that Equities have been propped up by QE and excessive borrowing (both public and private) and that we are in uncharted territory, the great unknown once it becomes known will shake the markets and scare off investors.

The feeding frenzy on low interest rates and greed for capital gain in a rising market have ignored historically huge debt levels, stagnation (in some cases, deflation), dropping labour participation rates, and other economic factors that should be cause for alarm...not cause for celebrating a 'global recovery'. Greed is about to flip to fear...IMO. Watch out. If you want to stay loaded, invest in precious metals and the companies that dig them out of the ground.

Blue chip stocks and regular equities had their heyday in 2013. 2014 will be a different story as economic realities come home to roost.

Bobcat.

30-01-2014, 03:07 PM

I am planning for a major correction at some point in the not too distant future (whether that is this year, the next or even further away I don't know. To be honest I'm not sure if anyone can predict that....)

I believe that it may have just started, Tumeric. We may get a head and shoulder pattern -- we may not.

Compare today's market reaction to the FOMC meeting (announcing another $10B taper) with that of December's when they tapered the same amount. In December, that spiked a bullish run; today's reaction was lacklustre to say the least. People are wising up to the Fed's tactics, and are getting increasingly concerned about the several trillion dollars of assets on their balance sheet, with no clear strategy for unwinding them, and very little in their tool-kit for dealing with inflation when it arrives.

luigi

10-02-2014, 04:22 PM

Petone village should start being built shortly assuming no environment court appeal in the next two weeks.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/9702419/Green-light-for-Petone-retirement-village

Snow Leopard

10-02-2014, 10:07 PM

With both the closing share price and the E4 (Exponential 4 day average) below the E64 average the RYM share price is not totally green.

So a little weakness, that depending upon your approach, is either time to consider selling out or topping up.

Decisions, decisions. :sleep:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Edit: The title? Aug 2011 was last time the SP was this 'weak'.

samdaman

13-02-2014, 11:16 AM

I'm still new but from what I've been grasping here and there wouldn't getting closer to that MA be giving a buy signal? given its also getting close to or touching the lower trend channel aswell? Correct me if I'm wrong I'm new to TA and investing :)

JayRiggs

13-02-2014, 11:16 AM

I think RYM has reached a consolidation phase, a bit like MFT in August 2011 when it reached $10.50, then went sideways between $9-$10 for about a year, before heading back up again.
For it to keep going up will depend on how well it goes in Aussie. I trust management to pull it off :)

Disc: Hold and accumulated a tiny bit yesterday

Harvey Specter

13-02-2014, 11:18 AM

Joshuatree

13-02-2014, 11:20 AM

I switched some RYM to more AOG (ASX) as AOG has better momentum atm as it emerges as a pure play retirement vehicle.

samdaman

13-02-2014, 11:29 AM

or it could mean the upward trend has ended and is now in a downwards trend.

so then if it turned back up of the trend channel and MA we would assume we've just found a higher low and all is good to go?

winner69

13-02-2014, 11:39 AM

Getting very close to the bottom channel line on me old Linear Regression Channel Chart

Could be close to saying this long term uptrend that started in mid June 2012 is about to end

Methinks it is nothing to do with RYM and its performance. Methinks this a sign that the whole market is in the throes of being slowly downgraded (ie overall lower PE ratios)

Yes couta before you ask methinks that SUM is going through this process as well. That is why SUM hasn't increased as much as you think it should

Snow Leopard

13-02-2014, 12:35 PM

here is a proper chart with a log price axis of the last five years with closing price and a 16% trailing stop (Tiger method)

So are we all worrying needlessly?

5466

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Jasemc

28-02-2014, 04:32 PM

Bit of action today someone must have inside info about australia ?

blocker3

06-03-2014, 08:45 PM

ASB had the big SELL sign out for Ryman today with the share price at $8.31.Not sure to sell down or not.Comments please are welcomed + or -.

Wolf

06-03-2014, 09:34 PM

It's Morning Stars recommendation, they have been pretty much saying sell since it was like $3 so i wouldn't pay much attention to it. They have a pretty bad reputation. I wouldn't suggest selling down or buying based on one of their reports.

Disc: Don't own RYM

Joshuatree

06-03-2014, 10:21 PM

Something beginning with C have had a sell on it for a while with t/p re $6.80!!. Ive been selling down simply because I'm so overweighted here now and need to rebalance and build cash. Also Looking at some MET , maybe SUM too but in no hurry. cheers

Snow Leopard

06-03-2014, 11:09 PM

ASB had the big SELL sign out for Ryman today with the share price at $8.31.Not sure to sell down or not.Comments please are welcomed + or -.

Dreadfully overpriced and yet the share price (on the whole) keeps going up.
You got something better to spend the money on?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

blocker3

07-03-2014, 06:55 AM

Dreadfully overpriced and yet the share price (on the whole) keeps going up.
You got something better to spend the money on?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Paper Tiger

I purchased these shares when they were between the $3.10-$4.13 range and now are showing a healthy gain.If I sold it would be a sell down (say 30%) and not a 100% SELL.

Summerset is undervalued in my eyes and could be a stock to increase in ,that I see.( I started to purchase Summerset shares at $1.61 ) It also has been good to me.

Lastly with the NZ/AUS dollar being so high the ASX looks attractive also and with the NZ elections looming .

Open to further comments being +/- by yourself or other traders.

Cheers

blocker3

07-03-2014, 10:00 AM

This share is going nuts with the bids. Still Holding and watching.WHATS UP!!!

Just beaten the existing $ 8.39 mark a few weeks ago ,with an all time high of $8.40

JayRiggs

07-03-2014, 10:10 AM

This share is going nuts with the bids. Still Holding and watching.WHATS UP!!!
hmmmm, must have been Morningstar's SELL recommendation?

blocker3

07-03-2014, 10:14 AM

hmmmm, must have been Morningstar's SELL recommendation?

What the reverse effect!!! must be.I see Summerset is up also...Cheers

JayRiggs

07-03-2014, 10:48 AM

I am continually surprised by how RYM keeps outperforming SUM, despite RYM having a higher P/E of 28.36 and SUM with 21.93 (though RYM P/E will probably be around 25 after the full year in a couple months).

RYM vs SUM
1yr: 83% - 39%
6 months: 22.6% - 17.85%
1 month: 8.5% - 2.33%

Perhaps investors are thinking the Aussie expansion is going to do extremely well, but for something that is yet to prove itself, I think it's gone up too much relative to SUM.

blocker3

07-03-2014, 10:56 AM

Harvey Specter

07-03-2014, 10:59 AM

While the news was about XRO entering the global index, maybe RYM weighting was also adjusted: http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/xero-hits-new-all-time-high-ck-152875

blocker3

07-03-2014, 11:09 AM

While the news was about XRO entering the global index, maybe RYM weighting was also adjusted: http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/xero-hits-new-all-time-high-ck-152875

Cheers Harvey Specter, a good read.

I enjoyed the best part ,where the comments let loose on NBR at the botton of the article and they replied.

blocker3

11-03-2014, 05:07 PM

In4a$

12-03-2014, 08:49 AM

With ref to my post 1760 above

I have been scratching my head for the last few days over selling . At the end of the day I did sell down 25% at $8.41 and $8.44 for a great profit.
I will invest these in ASX shares now as the dollar is 94c.
Cheers
I have done the same, sold down 30% at 8.43, will wait for the next drop near $8 to buy again, hopefully it will dip again on its run to 8.75 at year end. I like your idea of ASX shares, if RYM stays high might also look at the ASX instead.

blocker3

12-03-2014, 09:38 AM

There is always a lot of forward growth already built into the Rym Share price.

For good reason.

The time to accumulate has been at significant general market depression points.

Rym will always be a probable investment long term in my opinion, boring but a true investment.

not much to see or do here.

Invest...Sleep... make money beyond inflation.

Wake me up in 10 years.

AA

Don't get me wrong I like Ryman and will continue to hold.Just that its a wee bit overpriced at the moment and I was a wee bit over stocked. Cheers

blocker3

12-03-2014, 09:41 AM

I have done the same, sold down 30% at 8.43, will wait for the next drop near $8 to buy again, hopefully it will dip again on its run to 8.75 at year end. I like your idea of ASX shares, if RYM stays high might also look at the ASX instead.

In4a$
If you look at my posting 1720 above do consider those AUS stocks. I am also with the ASB and I have just opened an AUS account. So when I do sell the AUS shares money stays in AUS currency with the ASB bank ,back here in NZ (Called FOREIGN CURRENCY ACCOUNT AUD. So you can spend again in AUS shares when you like with no exchange rate). This saves exchange costs each time. Do consider it with your bank ....

Lastly wasn't it funny that for the second day in a row that the shares spiked in the last 15 minutes of trading. I had a hunch that it would happen again yesterday as it did and I went for it ,like you did...... Cheers

In4a$

12-03-2014, 04:43 PM

In4a$
If you look at my posting 1720 above do consider those AUS stocks. I am also with the ASB and I have just opened an AUS account. So when I do sell the AUS shares money stays in AUS currency with the ASB bank ,back here in NZ (Called FOREIGN CURRENCY ACCOUNT AUD. So you can spend again in AUS shares when you like with no exchange rate). This saves exchange costs each time. Do consider it with your bank ....

Lastly wasn't it funny that for the second day in a row that the shares spiked in the last 15 minutes of trading. I had a hunch that it would happen again yesterday as it did and I went for it ,like you did...... Cheers
Yes I was surprised my sell order went through Blocker. I am also with ASB, have a US$ account, will set up a OZ$ one. Been looking at a few stocks today. Will give it more thought over the weekend, but long term holding some ASX stocks seems a good idea. Cant see our $ staying this high forever.

Joshuatree

12-03-2014, 05:11 PM

Still selling/ reducing RYM myself; feeding in every few days. Instantly snapped up @$8.45 today; tides right , moons right, big fish feeding.

blocker3

12-03-2014, 05:22 PM

Still selling/ reducing RYM myself; feeding in every few days. Instantly snapped up @$8.45 today; tides right , moons right, big fish feeding.

Right on time another end of the day rise in the market for Ryman to an all time high $8.50.

Well Well Well.

Lost in space

12-03-2014, 05:24 PM

Cant see our $ staying this high forever.[/QUOTE]

On what basis do you say this? I suspect that how things have been things won't be. On a 'rear-view mirror' assessment I could not disagree but I think the dollar will strengthen and hold looking at the macro picture.

blocker3

12-03-2014, 05:48 PM

If there is no interest rise tomorrow the NZ dollar will take a hit. However I have heard the comment of
$NZ = $ AUS in the med term future as we are today .944

I am moving Stocks over to OZ stocks because .... With the NZ shares being first out of the blocks with the world economy ( NZ is starting to get fully priced) and NZ elections in the spring.

In4a$

13-03-2014, 07:58 PM

Cant see our $ staying this high forever.

On what basis do you say this? I suspect that how things have been things won't be. On a 'rear-view mirror' assessment I could not disagree but I think the dollar will strengthen and hold looking at the macro picture.[/QUOTE]
Note I said forever, ! Bound to fall some time, but yes we could see $1 for $1 maybe in ths short term but markets always go up and down. A year or two from now the $ is bound to fall if not before IMO

blocker3

14-03-2014, 09:55 AM

Seems to me our dollar vs the US is torn between the effects of US tapering, appetite for risk, our relatively strong NZ economy, and the fact that our interest rates are rising faster/sooner than the rest of the worlds'.

TA people must be having a field day with the charts, but from a non TA perspective I find it interesting that the highs of earlier in the year have been tested to a certain extent in recent times but as of yet not passed.

I shy away from making e-rate predictions as I think it is bloody difficult but if I had to guess I think it may test new highs possible even 0.9+ but over the medium/long term it will fall.

In saying that I have been converting NZD to USD and am in the process of doing that again tonight or tomorrow after today's RBNZ induced spike. The worry I have and the thing that without down would send the NZD down is a equity market correction and that could happen any time.

Just my thoughts, DYOR :)

Hi Turmeric

I have purchased OZ shares over the last week as the NZ-AX is high (.0946 today). It could still climb further.Can I suggest that you could purchase OZ shares with the AUD. as a backup to the $US.

I have found out that with the $US, if you want to purchase US shares its a double transaction fee.

Good Luck

Cheers Blocker3

MAC

17-03-2014, 04:45 PM

Good news for Ryman, lifting the build rate from 700 to 850 in 2017, still three years away but should have analysts revaluing today;

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/191062.pdf

Slam dunk

18-03-2014, 08:57 AM

Good news for Ryman, lifting the build rate from 700 to 850 in 2017, still three years away but should have analysts revaluing today;

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/191062.pdf

This seems overwhelmingly positive

Key points:

Plans for 8 new villages in NZ
5 of the 8 are in AKL (high growth in population and villa/unit valuations)
Increase in build rate to 850 units by 2017
Securing a second site in Melbourne is a high priority. This says to me that 1. sales must have gone well there; And 2. Broader than that, RYM Management must be happy overall with how the Aussie expansion has gone (some on this forum often talk about the extra challenges in Aus but RYM must be comfortable that they're managing these well).

Discl. Sold all my RYM between $8 and $8.40 in the last couple of months to free up money for first home - now wish I still had some!

Harvey Specter

18-03-2014, 10:23 AM

Securing a second site in Melbourne is a high priority. This says to me that 1. sales must have gone well there; And 2. Broader than that, RYM Management must be happy overall with how the Aussie expansion has gone (some on this forum often talk about the extra challenges in Aus but RYM must be comfortable that they're managing these well).

Buying a site may be sensible but I hope they don't get too committed until they work out how it all goes operationally. Sure the building and selling element may be fine but can they operate it on a profitable basis as well?

couta1

18-03-2014, 10:44 AM

Buying a site may be sensible but I hope they don't get too committed until they work out how it all goes operationally. Sure the building and selling element may be fine but can they operate it on a profitable basis as well?
See my earlier post #1678 re Aussie progress of course bottom line profit operational profit won't be known for a couple of years

Harvey Specter

18-03-2014, 11:06 AM

See my earlier post #1678 re Aussie progress of course bottom line profit operational profit won't be known for a couple of yearsThats my point. They maybe ale to build it but can they find cheap staff to run it. Have they priced the units, week fee, etc right.

couta1

18-03-2014, 11:09 AM

Thats my point. They maybe ale to build it but can they find cheap staff to run it. Have they priced the units, week fee, etc right.
Unknown even for them given the power of the unions in that state

Slam dunk

18-03-2014, 12:31 PM

Unknown even for them given the power of the unions in that state

I asked the CFO a few months back if they had given the necessary consideration to the impact Unions would have on costs/margins and he left me a voice mail (I missed his call) saying he was comfortable they had given due consideration to such matters. I was impressed he even called back!

Bjauck

18-03-2014, 06:24 PM

I asked the CFO a few months back if they had given the necessary consideration to the impact Unions would have on costs/margins and he left me a voice mail (I missed his call) saying he was comfortable they had given due consideration to such matters. I was impressed he even called back!
I have sent emails to the Infratil enquiry email address and got an email back from Lloyd Morrison and another director! Respect to Ryman and Infratil, two good Kiwi companies!

percy

18-03-2014, 06:31 PM

I have sent emails to the Infratil enquiry email address and got an email back from Lloyd Morrison and another director! Respect to Ryman and Infratil, two good Kiwi companies!

Really pleased they have email where Lloyd has gone to.!

Bjauck

18-03-2014, 07:51 PM

Ah yes...I should qualify that to remove any doubt. The email to which Lloyd replied was sent when Lloyd was in remission and in vivo.

winner69

18-03-2014, 08:05 PM

Really pleased they have email where Lloyd has gone to.!

That's one of your better posts Percy - good one, classic

percy

18-03-2014, 08:09 PM

That's one of your better posts Percy - good one, classic

As he was a wonderful man and a character I am sure he would have enjoyed it too.

Kagrok

19-03-2014, 08:09 AM

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11222026

In4a$

19-03-2014, 10:30 AM

Gosh, when is RYM price going to stop going up. My prediction of $8.75 by Dec is being blown away, could be $9.oo by month end. !
Disc: Longtime faithfull and happy holder.

couta1

19-03-2014, 10:43 AM

Gosh, when is RYM price going to stop going up. My prediction of $8.75 by Dec is being blown away, could be $9.oo by month end. !
Disc: Longtime faithfull and happy holder.
Seems a lot being priced in considering build rate increase doesn't come into play until 2017? Land bank increase great but nothing actually happening right now,over exuberance probably

stoploss

19-03-2014, 10:49 AM

Seems a lot being priced in considering build rate increase doesn't come into play until 2017? Land bank increase great but nothing actually happening right now,over exuberance probably

Right now they are selling apartments in Melb like they are going out of style.A second site is on the cards.
Why are people keen to bash a proven winner.... get on go for the ride .

DISC: Holding

stoploss

19-03-2014, 11:25 AM

I would suggest that RYM is nearing bubble territory with a PEG ratio of about 1.5 compared to only 0.5 for SUM. However, I agree that any correction is unlikely to occur over the next few months.

Hi newGuy,
Just a quote from someone a lot smarter than any of us ..." markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" So words like Bubble , or Coutas "lot priced in " or " over exuberance" should be used sparingly .
Remember people thought AAPL was expensive @ $ 50.00 and $ 100, $ 200, $ 300, $400, $ 500, ........ ( probably a few share splits on the way as well ) So the lesson is stay with the winners .

Lost in space

19-03-2014, 11:52 AM

Are you suggesting that xro could never pop?

I don't think Tumeric is saying that at all - he's hardly going to offer some underwrite. Point is that if investors had taken flight on first catch-cry they would have missed out on substantial profits. The same will happen to PEB no doubt over the next few years. As previously mentioned on this site, a broken clock will show the correct time twice a day.

stoploss

19-03-2014, 12:34 PM

macduffy

19-03-2014, 12:46 PM

Hi, ratkin.

I'll bet you never thought RYM would generate this level of "debate" when you started - and named - this thread back in 2004!

:)

winner69

19-03-2014, 12:51 PM

what is this feedback/reputation stuff you guys are talking about?

The star thing at the left hand bottom of each post

You can see your score etc in your settings (top of the page by the login bit)

Joshuatree

19-03-2014, 04:18 PM

No detail but a broker has mentioned RYM entering a Global midcap index(or 2) , English he thought, hence the pushup.. Im still feeding my shares in as i rebalance, just loving it:).

Bjauck

19-03-2014, 05:20 PM

blocker3

19-03-2014, 08:01 PM

With ref to my post 1760 above
I have been scratching my head for the last few days over selling . At the end of the day I did sell down 25% at $8.41 and $8.44 for a great profit.
I will invest these in ASX shares now as the dollar is 94c.
Cheers

After purchasing Ryman in the $2 range origionally,last week I sold down on this stock because .

1/ It was overvalued at that time in my eyes (This was before the 8 property announcement)
2/ It was getting far to high in my portfolio percentage.
3/ Elections are coming and a overall NZ correction is possible.
4/ The $NZ= $AUS was at 0.94 and I purchased ASX shares with the money.
5/ Morning star showing SELL.
6/ It took a few sleeps but I decided to sell.

Lastly this "Decision making process" I had to stand by all the facts that I had at that time.

Even though the facts have changed since then (ie 8 properties to be purchased).

Posters above use the word bubble. I never saw it as that ,but I use the word overpriced for where the company was at last week.

I still have a good holding in Ryman and think that it is a long term growth company.
If it dips in the short term, I could buy back in.

Cheers

In4a$

20-03-2014, 09:08 AM

I did the same blocker3, see post 1757. I am now happy to wait, there will be a correction in the RYM price sooner or later as there has been many times over the last few years, analyst will say it's over priced, it'll drop and I'll top up again. Just dont think we will see $8 again. I took some RYM profits last year when it hit a peak, used those to buy SUM, doing okay but look forward to seeing some up in the $5 range.

Joshuatree

20-03-2014, 09:30 AM

Hi guys, boy its a hard act to follow i mean how many stocks are of this quality and are going to give one such a ride. Finding good value stocks to replace RYM ; well are there any in this calibre/zone? Ditto in Aus blocker. Youve had sound reasons for doing what you did when you did. Unknown things like RYM being entered into a global madcap index (haven't confirmed this tap) one can't factor in. Int in what you have found of value over there. RMD is one I'm buying on dips; sorry prob wrong thread for this.

blocker3

20-03-2014, 09:50 AM

I have done the same, sold down 30% at 8.43, will wait for the next drop near $8 to buy again, hopefully it will dip again on its run to 8.75 at year end. I like your idea of ASX shares, if RYM stays high might also look at the ASX instead.

Hi In4a$

You are correct, and I did have your quote originally in my posting above.Thinking that you may not of liked it I with drew it. We are on the same page. Cheers Blocker3

Vaygor1

20-03-2014, 01:09 PM

To be honest, I think you guys are using misleading analogies. While RYM is an exceptional company, its recent growth has been remarkably uniform at around 20% p.a. This is precisely why YOY SP growth of circa 80% actually IS unsustainable. Comparing it to tech stocks with negative PEs is a bit silly IMO. Different kettle of fish, different investment fundamentals etc :)

Hi NewGuy.

I am interested in where you come up with 80% Year-on-year growth figure, in particular your datum point.

If I am measuring year on year growth then I use 7 years as a yard stick.

RYM was over $2.00 in April 2007. I bought many that year for over a little over $2.00 and I can say now that they were a bargain and one of my best purchases. Anyone turning back the clock with hindsight would have jumped at $2.50 (25% up on $2.00).

I bought a lot around the $2.08 to $2.16 mark in 2007… and then, bought a lot lot lot more as the price dropped slowly to the $1.30 mark in Nov-2008 and still more as they slowly recovered back to $2.10 in June 2010. Super bargain.

So using $2.10 in April 2007 as the datum, and using 25% growth increase year-on-year, I get the share price in April 2014 as $10.01
If I use $2.50 in April 2007 as a fair price for RYM as my datum and then use only 20% as my year on year growth, I get $8.95 for April 2014.

I am not saying my numbers are exactly right but I think your 80% growth figure is too high to call it year-on-year.

In my view it pays to 'experiment' with SP growth rates and datum points as it provides a sensitivity analysis when weighing up the validity of the numbers that fall out.

Bjauck

20-03-2014, 02:41 PM

I am not saying my numbers are exactly right but I think your 80% growth figure is too high to call it year-on-year.

In my view it pays to 'experiment' with SP growth rates and datum points as it provides a sensitivity analysis when weighing up the validity of the numbers that fall out.
Good points.
I took a quick look at past prices...

end March 2007 SP 2.10
end March 2010 SP 2.07
end March 2011 SP 2.37 + 14%
end March 2012 SP 3.08 + 30%
end march 2013 SP 5.04 + 63%
now March 2014 SP 8.65 + 71%

Using Vaygor's 2007 sp figure and Using the long term profit increase at 20% pa as the comparison basis, it seems as though the Share price underperformed from 2007 to 2011 (the credit crunch era). The gains in 2012 to the present have been by way of catch up to (perhaps) where the price should have been to reflect the increase on profits. From these figures it would appear that the percentage gains seen recently will be unlikely to repeat, unless the sustainable increase in profits is more than 20%. On the other hand, the big percentage gains recently may not reverse as they may have been the final catch up to make up for the(unjustified?) drops in the credit crunch era. (Of course I am not looking at SP behaviour because of future crises, "market irrationality", fear or euphoria.) This is back-of-the-envelope work, DYOR.

Snow Leopard

20-03-2014, 03:22 PM

5606
YoY for specified time period
(SP accuracy not guaranteed)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Snoopy

20-03-2014, 03:34 PM

I'd add a close friend of mine, XRO, to that example as well. Oh the uproar when XRO hit $5, it was a "bubble", it was way "overvalued", the bubble was about to burst, even the tiniest prick would send the SP crashing, people were fools to invest in such a company ;) +800% later.....

I am one of those people who would have said Xero was in bubble territory at $5. But guess what? Even with the benefit of hindsight, I would not change my view that Xero was in a bubble at $5.

Bubbles are always obvious with hindsight. As an investor though, I have to work in the present. That means not just looking at the share price, for that one measure alone is not sufficient to assess value. Xero has no earnings. It has great potential for future earnings. But the current share price seems to have already assumed the capitulation of the likes of Intuit. Without knowing if Xero will ever generate a profit, the incremental assumption that all competitors globally will capitulate seems to me to be a stretch too far for any positive cashflow type investor such as myself. If the Xero share price collapsed to $5 tomorrow I personally still wouldn't buy it.

RYM is in quite a different position with a solid track record of earnings and business plan execution and real and growing profits already on the table. If the RYM share price collapsed to $5 tomorrow I would buy, almost regardless of whatever piece of news caused such a share price collapse. The track record of RYM just cannot be ignored. That doesn't mean that you can't pay too much for RYM though. If anything, RYM might be in a value bubble today. Even a really excellent company can still become too expensive, relative to other investment opportunities out there. But RYM is not in a bubble in the sense that Xero is. At today's prices, I wouldn't buy either though.

SNOOPY

blocker3

20-03-2014, 04:05 PM

I am one of those people who would have said Xero was in bubble territory at $5. But guess what? Even with the benefit of hindsight, I would not change my view that Xero was in a bubble at $5.

Bubbles are always obvious with hindsight. As an investor though, I have to work in the present. That means not just looking at the share price, for that one measure alone is not sufficient to assess value. Xero has no earnings. It has great potential for future earnings. But the current share price seems to have already assumed the capitulation of the likes of Intuit. Without knowing if Xero will ever generate a profit, the incremental assumption that all competitors globally will capitulate seems to me to be a stretch too far for any positive cashflow type investor such as myself. If the Xero share price collapsed to $5 tomorrow I personally still wouldn't buy it.

RYM is in quite a different position with a solid track record of earnings and business plan execution and real and growing profits already on the table. If the RYM share price collapsed to $5 tomorrow I would buy, almost regardless of whatever piece of news caused such a share price collapse. The track record of RYM just cannot be ignored. That doesn't mean that you can't pay too much for RYM though. If anything, RYM might be in a value bubble today. Even a really excellent company can still become too expensive, relative to other investment opportunities out there. But RYM is not in a bubble in the sense that Xero is. At today's prices, I wouldn't buy either though.

SNOOPY

I totally agree with your summary ,that I placed in bold. Cheers

Jim

20-03-2014, 10:24 PM

yup - me too

Maybe due for a share split

Bjauck

21-03-2014, 09:09 AM

Maybe due for a share split
How would a share split affect whether the current share price is fair value?

macduffy

21-03-2014, 09:15 AM

couta1

21-03-2014, 09:21 AM

It wouldn't!

In practice though, it might attract a bit more interest from those who would perceive it as better value - or at least, more affordable!
Correct Share split has no relationship with fair value valuation,you would possibly see a further increase in share price prior to split and a spike in share price after split as people think they are getting better value which of course is only an illusion

Harvey Specter

21-03-2014, 09:49 AM

How would a share split affect whether the current share price is fair value?Simple - a 4:1 split would make simple people think the share is cheap at $2.

winner69

21-03-2014, 10:39 AM

Simple - a 4:1 split would make simple people think the share is cheap at $2.

And be cheaper than SUM

Good for RYM but punters might think SUM expensive and sell out

couta1

21-03-2014, 10:44 AM

And be cheaper than SUM

Good for RYM but punters might think SUM expensive and sell out
We will always have dummies and blondes among us:cool: Oh and of course Sum could do a 4:1 split at $4 making their shares very cheap at $1 aye

winner69

21-03-2014, 11:44 AM

We will always have dummies and blondes among us:cool: Oh and of course Sum could do a 4:1 split at $4 making their shares very cheap at $1 aye

But if they did that now SUM would be sub $1 ......doggy type share status

couta1

21-03-2014, 11:51 AM

But if they did that now SUM would be sub $1 ......doggy type share status
Yeah that's why it would have to be over $4,IMO Ryman won't do a share split until around $10 maybe an Aussie listing will come first once the first Melbourne village opens?

Vaygor1

21-03-2014, 11:58 AM

How would a share split affect whether the current share price is fair value?
It wouldn't!

In practice though, it might attract a bit more interest from those who would perceive it as better value - or at least, more affordable!Correct Share split has no relationship with fair value valuation,you would possibly see a further increase in share price prior to split and a spike in share price after split as people think they are getting better value which of course is only an illusion

All correct. Perception is reality when it comes to the share market.
Typically a share split in the 3:1 to 10:1 range equates to a gain of 5%-10% in the said share's Market Cap. I have consistently seen this too many times now. Same applies in reverse for a share consolidation.

Dentie

21-03-2014, 12:00 PM

I am one of those people who would have said Xero was in bubble territory at $5. But guess what? Even with the benefit of hindsight, I would not change my view that Xero was in a bubble at $5.

Bubbles are always obvious with hindsight. As an investor though, I have to work in the present. That means not just looking at the share price, for that one measure alone is not sufficient to assess value. Xero has no earnings. It has great potential for future earnings. But the current share price seems to have already assumed the capitulation of the likes of Intuit. Without knowing if Xero will ever generate a profit, the incremental assumption that all competitors globally will capitulate seems to me to be a stretch too far for any positive cashflow type investor such as myself. If the Xero share price collapsed to $5 tomorrow I personally still wouldn't buy it.

RYM is in quite a different position with a solid track record of earnings and business plan execution and real and growing profits already on the table. If the RYM share price collapsed to $5 tomorrow I would buy, almost regardless of whatever piece of news caused such a share price collapse. The track record of RYM just cannot be ignored. That doesn't mean that you can't pay too much for RYM though. If anything, RYM might be in a value bubble today. Even a really excellent company can still become too expensive, relative to other investment opportunities out there. But RYM is not in a bubble in the sense that Xero is. At today's prices, I wouldn't buy either though.

SNOOPY

Don't want to divert away from RYM (and the brilliant company that it is), but ...

Oh, finally someone agrees with me about XRO being in a bubble since $5. Nice one Snoopy .... and I didn't even pay you to state it!! I agree with you 100%.

minimoke

21-03-2014, 12:57 PM

Maybe due for a share split I hope not as I'll just get more confused. Currently sitting on 1,687% increase X 2 due to prior split.

SimonHouse

21-03-2014, 02:59 PM

Share splits are like the old joke - "I don't think I could eat a six slice pizza, so cut it into four slices instead".

That being said, there are behavioural reasons why a split might be favoured.

But also, at the margins, there are some who might be swayed against buying small parcels of Ryman because they can't afford 500 shares at the current price, but could afford 500 shares at a 2-for-1 split price, and there might be minimum buy amounts, or inefficiences in buying small amounts with higher brokerage.

winner69

21-03-2014, 04:21 PM

Here's a report from The Commision for Financial Literacy and Retirement Income on what may happen to incomes as people get older

Jeez never knew such a commission existed ..no doubt justify their existence and gives a few Public Policy and Economics Graduates a job

http://www.cflri.org.nz/sites/default/files/docs/RI-Review-Report-to-Govt-Dec-2013.pdf

Joshuatree

21-03-2014, 04:53 PM

Adviser reckons buyers of RYM for this Global Midcap index fund finishing buying today. Be int to see.

MAC

21-03-2014, 05:07 PM

Adviser reckons buyers of RYM for this Global Midcap index fund finishing buying today. Be int to see.

Cripes, that would have to be the biggest one day drop I've seen for RYM, 5.9%

NZ50 dropped 20 points on the close also, but it is a triple witching day.

troyvdh

21-03-2014, 05:40 PM

Obviously some folk believe they have made enough ...and others believe its time to get in...

Re the discussion of a share split....I believe I posted a while back that a split occurred just above $11 about ..what 6-7 years ago....cheers

Beagle

21-03-2014, 06:12 PM

I must confess I was extremly surprised by the match price of $8.20 at 4.57 p.m. just before close and thought about getting back in and buying some...but decided against it. My perception of relative value is not swayed by a 50 cent price change but my thought was this could be a good trading opportunity for resale in a few days time. Perhaps a missed opportunity on my part but I am loathe to pay what I consider too be over the odds in terms of value for any stock regardless of the time horizon one intends to hold for.

I cannot see value in a stcok that's risen in price by ~ 300% in the last few years when its EPS is growing at only ~20% per annum. Rarely do we see a finer example of substaintial PE expansion than RYM has provided us with over recent years, arguably supported by 50 year historical low interest rates, which of course won't be the situation going forward, (P.E. contraction just around the corner ?). Talk about "THE" market darling. My thoughts on the relative value of RYM v SUM are well articulated in the SUM thread.
All that said I feel a bit sorry for RYM shareholders today. Who needs this sort of wild volatility !!

troyvdh

21-03-2014, 06:29 PM

Roger...the last line of your post....is well....do you understand the term narcissistic....cheers

what 300 + % in what 2-3 years ?????

Bjauck

21-03-2014, 06:31 PM

I cannot see value in a stcok that's risen in price by ~ 300% in the last few years when its EPS is growing at only ~20% per annum. Rarely do we see a finer example of substaintial PE expansion than RYM has provided us with over recent years, arguably supported by 50 year historical low interest rates, which of course won't be the situation going forward, (P.E. contraction just around the corner ?). Talk about "THE" market darling. My thoughts on the relative value of RYM v SUM are well articulated in the SUM thread.
All that said I feel a bit sorry for RYM shareholders today. Who needs this sort of wild volatility !!
RYM may have risen recently in the last few years...but that may have been by way way of catch-up for the preceding few years when it had stagnated*...maybe it was unjustifed or not, that is the question!

*I am specifically referrring to the Share Price

Vaygor1

21-03-2014, 06:57 PM

On the face of it, it may seem like a sorry day for RYM shareholders, but let's be clear, less than one month ago the SP was sub $8 so no big deal in my mind (not good but no big deal). Not to mention the 300%+ gains over the last three years. Point is, unless you are a trader, best to focus on the longer term trends rather than the 1 day price movements.Yes. A month ago they were just above $7.50 and began to climb. Someone just dumped 2million of them on the market right on closing today. I too have not seen a drop like that in RYM in 1 day but I have seen it over a few days more than once in the past. It doesn't phase me (yet)... last buy was years ago, have never sold with no intention (at this stage) to do so before at least 2020.

blocker3

21-03-2014, 07:33 PM

winner69

21-03-2014, 07:53 PM

No worries ....even after todays CRASH/COLLAPSE the 820 is just a tad below the linear regression line that has been in place for over 18 months now ..... and well within the price channels

Probably trigger a buy soon for Misty using his Parabolic SAR ....though today might have caught him by surprise

Beagle

21-03-2014, 08:17 PM

WELL WELL WELL. If anybody has been around and has been reading the post over the last week or so ( read back) the person's/company/or whoever that has been buying up big at the last minutes of each trading day over the last week is the persons that has possibly deciding to cash in today.

Has it been a pump and dump attack exercise,(I don't know).

Thoughts anybody. Cheers.

Disc sold down 25% last week at 8.41 @ 8.44 with In4a$. (30%)

Cheers

Interesting theory, (pump and dump). Price seems to have come in for very strong support right at the very close, (which frankly has looked quite contrived), for some time now. Definitly put me in the conspiracy theory camp. Won't dignify name calling earlier by another poster with a response other than to add that everyone is entitled to express their opinion, good bad, or even ugly, (in other people's eyes).

In my opinion Ryman were a strong buy at ~$2.50 3 years ago and the market is now pricing the stock based on absolute perfection going forward. Any market contraction in price earnings multiples due to higher interest rates or slowdown in growth based on difficulties in Australia and...

Joshuatree

21-03-2014, 09:59 PM

If it was the last day of buying for the Global midcap fund and sophs knew that it may explain things but don't really know. Almost got caught out but managed to flick some more @$8.57. just before the last hurrah today. Hopefully some clarity in the next few days.

Joshuatree

21-03-2014, 11:55 PM

In4a$ and Josuatree do have a look and your feedback is welcome either -/+.
Cheers

Hey thanks Blocker. Know nothing about these other than finding GEM on my oversized watch list; will have a look; see theyhave run up a lot. cheers JT

skid

22-03-2014, 10:37 AM

Looks like they are going to make the ''biggest falls''for the week in the herald.
I guess a few are going to get a bit of a shock checking in on Sat.
I would be worried only if it doesnt bounce next week--Alot will be watching on Monday

In4a$

22-03-2014, 11:16 AM

What a drop ! I will be puttin in a buy at $8.oo Price was due a correction IMO

bull....

22-03-2014, 12:27 PM

It was only a matter of time before a big fall was witnessed, the strenght of the share price had weakened considerably in the last 4 mths and at this point in time anything above 8 seems extended mondays action will be telling

Snow Leopard

22-03-2014, 02:57 PM

So:
5619

Yesterday is nothing much in the great scheme of things is it?

Especially as I am very surprised that no one has commented on the similarities between 2007 and now (2014) in my previous post (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?626-Ryman-Too-boring-to-talk-about&p=468879&viewfull=1#post468879).

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

winner69

22-03-2014, 03:08 PM

5606
YoY for specified time period
(SP accuracy not guaranteed)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Was going to reply at the time. Really good table

Looks like we are due for some red (orange) eh ...and that doesn't look very nice at all does it

Probably says that things can't go up for ever - especially when the up is driven by +ve sentiment

Joshuatree

24-03-2014, 12:01 PM

IMO RYM overran on the upside .

Joshuatree

24-03-2014, 12:25 PM

I really don't know ; but have more to sell so hope you're right.;)

Harvey Specter

24-03-2014, 12:28 PM

So just to expand on this a little post 3 hours of trading.

ATM up 1.1%
ARG up 0.5%
XRO up 1%
RYM up 2.4%For completeness you should include the NZX50 (as a benchmark) and the Friday percentages to see the extent any adjustment has been unwound.

winner69

24-03-2014, 02:01 PM

Tumeric I'm with you on the buying opportunity and if you've got some spare cash at the right time and put in a cheeky bid and let it sit you never know you may get a great buy in,I think we will see continued volatility in the Ryman share price due to the international index inclusion its been happening for a while now I've observed,Sum seems less volatile to me now

What seems is not always the case couta

Since Jan 3rd volatility of RYM and SUM is about the same (20% annualised)......and this includes the 5.9% change on Friday for RYM

That means if you leave Friday out (for both) SUM volatility still about 20% and RYM about 16% - SUM more volatile up to Thursday last week

And surprise surprise both are up 7.3% since Jan 3rd

One could say SUM has given you the same return as RYM since Jan but with more risk (if volatility is a measure of risk)

So seem is just that ....what you think is happening and not what actually is

blocker3

24-03-2014, 05:03 PM

By the way, I acknowledge the index pump and dump theory, but to me that is rubbish. The main reason is that there were a bunch of stocks with significantly increased volume at the end of the day and the common denominator was they are all involved in international indexes. Some of these stock's SP dropped significantly (RYM & XRO spring to mind as 2 examples), others like ATM & ARG didn't drop much but certainly had large end of day volumes. So my question really is, is this something we can expect weekly for these types of stocks? big end of week volumes that may shift the SP significantly? And if so, and assuming these movements are a bit too far away from market value (i.e. looking at depth RYM at this stage will open up 20c from Fridays close) it strikes me that this may present us with fantastic buy and sell opportunities depending on the SP movement at Friday close. Thoughts?

Can anyone offer any insight into how these index boys work?

turmeric

With reference to your highlighted bold comments above,I made the comment as an open thought on Friday night.( If you read back to page 123 & post 1841)

We all have since learnt from the "News" over the weekend what actually occured.

Cheers
Blocker

Beagle

24-03-2014, 05:33 PM

Intersting that the price wasn't jacked up at the end of trade today like it has almost every other day recently (apart from of course last Friday).
Make of that what you will, just an observation.

blocker3

24-03-2014, 07:10 PM

Hi turmeric.

TV3 (last Friday the 21 March ) sum's it up best on the following..

http://www.3news.co.nz/Market-update-March-21-2014/tabid/421/articleID/336901/Default.aspx

Cheers Blocker3

winner69

25-03-2014, 08:06 AM

couta1

25-03-2014, 10:29 AM

The Morningstar guru on the radio this morning saying why he ins RYM overvalued.

Near the end
http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/2590125

No doubt reiterating his SELL reco

But from the tone on this thread the majority might be agreeing with him

All I know is if RYM shareprice has a 6 in front of it SUM will have a 2 in front of it
True but Rym could have a 7 in front of it and Sum could stay the same,looks like some are listening to those morningstar clowns today? Disc-Looking to buy in again at the right price

couta1

26-03-2014, 03:39 PM

RYM bouncing back nicely.
Great traders stock if your so inclined aye:cool:

Beagle

26-03-2014, 04:09 PM

Right that's it. No more sympathy, you guys are on your own now LOL.

couta1

26-03-2014, 05:10 PM

That was a classic example on close how the international index boys drive the price on this share 117k odd shares go through at $8.50 which is why I think your going to see the price move around a lot

winner69

31-03-2014, 06:59 PM

Did I see 875 close

Must be an all time high close .....WOW

look forward to 9 bucks soon

RYM all time high and DLX all time high ....what a good day

troyvdh

31-03-2014, 08:12 PM

Yes winner..you did...and yes an all time high.....as I posted a while back the last share split (1-5) was (anyone can find out) about 6-7 years ago at about $11.50....whatever...given that this occurs eventually that would be about 2.5 BILLION shares....scary stuff eh....mind you though I see RYM is worth over $4.3 Billion dollars...already...good night

couta1

31-03-2014, 08:18 PM

Those wanting to top up get some money ready will be another haircut coming up,so predictable this pattern now:cool:

winner69

31-03-2014, 08:35 PM

troyvdh

31-03-2014, 08:38 PM

Dear turmeric...you are quite correct....given the big picture .....earthquakes...pestilence....rats the size of sheep....foot and mouth....labour winning the election .....et al...it may well have been an golden opportunity to sell...

couta1

31-03-2014, 08:40 PM

Is there another index that RYM is being removed from? I wasn't aware of that.
Very funny tumeric you would make a good comedian,the international index boys are in control of this stock,they drive the price up on high volume when they want to and after they back off then comes the haircut,great for those who have top up money though,expect more of the same to come:cool:

Tevita

31-03-2014, 08:59 PM

Would 31st March be not only the fiscal financial year end but the end of year for Fund managers to tart up the valuation of their existing portfolios?

couta1

31-03-2014, 09:00 PM

Hold on, are you sure you have your facts correct about the reason for the last fall???

I was giving you a bit of a hard time, but I was actually serious too. I was a little slow off the mark in figuring out why the SP sunk from 8.7 to 8.2 the other Friday, but that has since been cleared up right? I.e. it was the result of RYM being removed from a UK mid-cap index (hence the drop on v.big volume). So my point really is, if you archeers ng another similar SP fall is "predictable", then presumably you are saying they are about to get dropped off another index??

I agree the Index boys are having a significant influence on the SP, BUT, that same drop will be unlikely in my opinion unless there is another change in the indexes RYM is a part of.

In the greater scheme of things the fall the other day, other than giving a few people a fright, and others a chance to gloat a little, is now just a mere blip within a very strong long term RYM chart. It has not only recovered that 50c in a little more than a week (in times when the broader markets have generally all slipped) but has now also made new highs.
T I've been studying the movements of stock in this sector intensely for quite a while now and all I'm saying as you have observed yourself that int index boys are the main drivers of the share price of this stock currently and have been for a while now,I'm not saying its going to drop another 50c any time soon although it wouldn't surprise me if it did,but that when your got these guys pushing high volumes you can expect bigger fluctuations than normal,cheers PS-Re my calc between Sum and Rym its on par based on Rym closing price today

winner69

31-03-2014, 09:28 PM

Think last split was a 5 for 1 in Jan 2007 when price was $10.90

Another source like FT.COM has split at 29/1/07 and price was $11.80

So troy was right ....great memory .... sorry mate

Joshuatree

01-04-2014, 02:38 PM

Fluked the top again; Got my price, $8.75 before she dropped away.

minimoke

02-04-2014, 10:08 PM

Think last split was a 5 for 1 in Jan 2007 when price was $10.90
I'm trying to tidy up my records. I have my RYM holdings showing a split on 29/1/2007 with a new price of $0.4809

Snow Leopard

02-04-2014, 10:30 PM

I'm trying to tidy up my records. I have my RYM holdings showing a split on 29/1/2007 with a new price of $0.4809

26-Jan-2007 was the last day that Ryman traded before the split (5 new for 1 old)
Closing price was the equivalent of $2.18 rounded to the nearest cent in new share terms (so $10.88 - $10.92 possible?)

29-Jan-2007 was the first day it traded post split. Closing price was $2.25

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

winner69

04-04-2014, 05:52 PM

T I've been studying the movements of stock in this sector intensely for quite a while now and all I'm saying as you have observed yourself that int index boys are the main drivers of the share price of this stock currently and have been for a while now,I'm not saying its going to drop another 50c any time soon although it wouldn't surprise me if it did,but that when your got these guys pushing high volumes you can expect bigger fluctuations than normal,cheers PS-Re my calc between Sum and Rym its on par based on Rym closing price today

Your nasty 'index boys' playing ages again?

winner69

26-04-2014, 05:05 PM

winner69

26-04-2014, 05:38 PM

But then again this time it is different and RYM will be 10 bucks by Xmas

Snow Leopard

26-04-2014, 06:19 PM

But then again this time it is different and RYM will be 10 bucks by Xmas

I believe that the official ShareTrader line is that it will rise on the Full Year results taking Summerset up with it.

Best Wishes
An UnNamed Source

couta1

28-04-2014, 07:39 AM

winner69

28-04-2014, 07:48 AM

Good news 440 resident Petone village gets go ahead and starts next month but then we get some inaccurate reporting from the Dom Post re incidents at Malvina Major last year where they say the assistant manager was sacked,this is false as there was no assistant manager position at the time,they should get their facts straight

From the article - The village manager, deputy manager and clinical manager were sacked by Ryman, King said.

King is a Ryman man the article says .... he telling porkies then couta? or maybe words put in his mouth by Andrea

That Andrea reporter is a nice person .... i'll just tell her some readers don't read that well

Beagle

28-04-2014, 09:54 AM

Whether its markets as a whole or just individual stocks buying at elevated multiples invariably leads to disappointing returns. Conversely buying at low multiples invariably leads to the good returns. Sort of buy cheap (low) sell expensive (high) approach.

In simple terms - high PE leads to low future returns / low PE leads to superior future returns.

Plenty of academia to show this works in so far as markets go but it seems to work out this way for even the best companies, even ones who have demonstrated decades of continuous growth

RYM has had enough history to do a meaningful analysis

Chart shows the 3 and 5 year annual returns for RYM from different starting PEs

Based on underlying earnings. Currently a PE of over 40 on this basis

History would indicate negative returns over the next 3 and 5 year periods - even though RYM will no doubt continue to grow earnings

That's why I watch the linear regression line on the RYM chart ......the squiggly line will one day head down

Each dot represents a PE and the subsequent 3 (or 5) year annual returns. shareprice only / no dividends

Vertical axis is % return pa and horizontal axis starting PE

+ 1 I agree with your synopsis. Fact is the SP is up circa 300% in recent years and the EPS growth has been nothing like that. PE expansion cannot go on forever, in fact I think in the medium term with interest rates rising all the risk lies with PE contraction meaning we could see years of little, no or negative SP movement. The other point to consider is its not like you're being paid to wait with a decent dividend return is it !
A brilliant company, with fantastic management that's priced for absolute perfection.

couta1

28-04-2014, 11:33 AM

From the article - The village manager, deputy manager and clinical manager were sacked by Ryman, King said.

King is a Ryman man the article says .... he telling porkies then couta? or maybe words put in his mouth by Andrea

That Andrea reporter is a nice person .... i'll just tell her some readers don't read that well
Hey winner go back and read the online article again and you'll find the above has been reworded to A new management team was installed including a new village manager,deputy manager and clinical manager king said, no more mention of sackings, so king gave two different statements wonder who stuffed up here Mr King or your reporter?

winner69

28-04-2014, 11:46 AM

Mr King is an ex journo ...and a Fairfax one as well!!!!

Maybe they check Sharetrader out ......ha ha .....or did you do your good shareholder trick and got it changed

David King
Corporate Affairs Manager

David joined Ryman in 2013 following a 21-year career in journalism in New Zealand and the United Kingdom, which included roles as an editor and a senior manager at Fairfax Media. He holds a Bachelor of Arts with Honours and a Certificate in Journalism.

winner69

28-04-2014, 11:52 AM

Hey winner go back and read the online article again and you'll find the above has been reworded to A new management team was installed including a new village manager,deputy manager and clinical manager king said, no more mention of sackings, so king gave two different statements wonder who stuffed up here Mr King or your reporter?

Yes it has changed

From -

The village manager, deputy manager and clinical manager were sacked by Ryman, King said.

To -

A new management team was installed, including a new village manager, deputy manager and clinical manager, King said.

Installing sounds better then being sacked eh

winner69

28-04-2014, 11:56 AM

At least the comments under that article are realistic

Margo Southgate
I saw the ladies out looking for her, I commented to my hubby who I was cycling with "oh, I bet they have lost someone". Pity we hadn't spotted her while we were riding. It's not easy looking after people who still have in their minds that they are perfectly capable or looking after themselves, even if they aren't.
Reply +2

winner69

28-04-2014, 12:01 PM

I'd say King stuffed up couta, not the reporter

He probably taught Andrea the tricks of the trade anyway

couta1

28-04-2014, 12:16 PM

Hey winner always good to put your mouth where your money is and pick up the phone rather than just talking nonsense on a forum aye;)

winner69

28-04-2014, 03:09 PM

Hey winner always good to put your mouth where your money is and pick up the phone rather than just talking nonsense on a forum aye;)

Well done - you my hero

muss1

30-04-2014, 12:36 PM

Whether its markets as a whole or just individual stocks buying at elevated multiples invariably leads to disappointing returns. Conversely buying at low multiples invariably leads to the good returns. Sort of buy cheap (low) sell expensive (high) approach.

In simple terms - high PE leads to low future returns / low PE leads to superior future returns.

Plenty of academia to show this works in so far as markets go but it seems to work out this way for even the best companies, even ones who have demonstrated decades of continuous growth

RYM has had enough history to do a meaningful analysis

Chart shows the 3 and 5 year annual returns for RYM from different starting PEs

Based on underlying earnings. Currently a PE of over 40 on this basis

History would indicate negative returns over the next 3 and 5 year periods - even though RYM will no doubt continue to grow earnings

That's why I watch the linear regression line on the RYM chart ......the squiggly line will one day head down

Each dot represents a PE and the subsequent 3 (or 5) year annual returns. shareprice only / no dividends

Vertical axis is % return pa and horizontal axis starting PE

Interesting post there winner. I recently decided to pursue other options based on a similar analysis. I also anticipate rymans earnings (all earnings, not just from continuing operations) being less due to the flattening off housing market. This may show the printed PE looking a bit more scary than it currently does including the recent property value gains. Continuing operations obviously going very well and will continue to grow. Still a great company

Jasemc

30-04-2014, 02:11 PM

Someone is accumulating over last 2 days so they must see value.

Jasemc

01-05-2014, 02:27 PM

Here goes the afternoon run up again easy money to make.

Jasemc

01-05-2014, 02:56 PM

Not sure about the sum switch back more like index boys buying reasonably safe company maybe someone has news early about results .

In4a$

01-05-2014, 03:57 PM

With results coming and probably a Div in June, might see it break the $9, will be getting ready to hit the sell button when it does.

couta1

01-05-2014, 06:49 PM

Yep that's why I bought a 7k share package last week at $8.25 as I knew it would be up at $8.75ish this week or next, to sell or not to sell said Shakespeare, one things for sure it will be having a dip in the not too distant future you can count on that,hopefully not the old 50c Int Index boys kinda dip but then again that could be good aye:cool:

In4a$

02-05-2014, 08:17 AM

skid

02-05-2014, 10:01 AM

A brilliant company, with fantastic management that's priced for absolute perfection.

Thats a good line Roger--i like that----It would describe some other ''growth'' companies as well

couta1

02-05-2014, 10:26 AM

A brilliant company, with fantastic management that's priced for absolute perfection.

Thats a good line Roger--i like that----It would describe some other ''growth'' companies as well
And its delivered perfection to date but the big question is. Will its NZ operation end up subsidizing its Aussie operation long term?

winner69

02-05-2014, 10:27 AM

In4a$

02-05-2014, 11:32 AM

Someone likes RYM, bought 250,000 shares at $8.75 at 11.am

777

02-05-2014, 11:42 AM

Someone likes RYM, bought 250,000 shares at $8.75 at 11.am

Someone doesn't like RYM, sold 250,000 shares at $8.75 at 11.am.

777

02-05-2014, 11:44 AM

Just kidding.

winner69

02-05-2014, 11:48 AM

A brilliant company, with fantastic management that's priced for absolute perfection.

Thats a good line Roger--i like that----It would describe some other ''growth'' companies as well

Great company .... delivers year after year .... and no doubt another 20% increase in underlying profit this year to $120m plus

That a multiple of 36 at todays price

History says buying today at that multiple will result in a negative returns over the next 3 and 5 years (even though earnings will go up 20% pa)

Only make serious money (as a medium/long term investment) when you buy in with that multiple at 20 or less.

Already holding .... ride it as long as you can but it be inevitable that the market will take away some of the past few years gains if you hold ..... or just put in the bottom draw and don't look at the RYM shareprice until 2020 when it will be $15 - that way you would have missed the pain of seeing it fall to $5 before it riseing again will not be painful an

Harvey Specter

02-05-2014, 11:56 AM

Just bought some land in devonport:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11248246

muss1

02-05-2014, 12:14 PM

Great company .... delivers year after year .... and no doubt another 20% increase in underlying profit this year to $120m plus

That a multiple of 36 at todays price

History says buying today at that multiple will result in a negative returns over the next 3 and 5 years (even though earnings will go up 20% pa)

Only make serious money (as a medium/long term investment) when you buy in with that multiple at 20 or less.

Already holding .... ride it as long as you can but it be inevitable that the market will take away some of the past few years gains if you hold ..... or just put in the bottom draw and don't look at the RYM shareprice until 2020 when it will be $15 - that way you would have missed the pain of seeing it fall to $5 before it riseing again will not be painful an

Well said winner. The raging property market has sugarcoated the PE to some extent making it look like better value than you have stated. I will be interested to see how this plays out with a flattening of the market in Auckland on the cards. Bearing in mind they have bought land during the hot market phase.

Still a great company and I will definitely be looking for the next opportunity to get back on board when there is some value.