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ratkin
14-06-2004, 05:15 AM
Have quietly been building a holding over the last few years and am suprised doing an archive search that this one hardly recieves any mentions.
Seems one of the best and safest long term holds on the NZSE cant think of any better really.

Seems to me that the more risky and hopeless it is the more people here want to talk about it, one only has to think back to aquaria 21 and ITC to see that to be the case.

I have been avoiding these forums over the past year or so because i found they were leading me to make more purchases / sales than was often prudent.
In the age of the internet patience and quietly building a big innings (like thorpe !! ) seems to be out of fashion now, instead has been replaced by a slogging mentality where the object is to hit a six into blue sky (like mcmillan), And we all know hes often out for a duck.

KJ
14-06-2004, 09:27 AM
Ratkin-if you are going to talk about shares then don't expect much response on this forum-I have almost given up on it.Posters generally prefer nonsense topics and this site has gone downhill rapidly over the last 6 mths.

I recently started a thread on Turners & Growers-a coy that will list shortly with $1b revenue,controlled by GPG who are restructuring the group-and did not get one response.

IMO RYM should be a good long term hold in a growth sector-lots of "old folks"coming on stream over the next 20 yrs.Like you I have held over the last yr or so.I think it will do well.

Gryffyn
14-06-2004, 09:58 AM
Good points skinny. Wondering what exposure they have if property prices were to dive, i.e. what is their debt secured against and could they be asked for more money?

Census figures may give a good indication of 'clients' likely to come on stream on a year by year basis.

Tend to agree with Skinny and think that you've done well to get in early. If market tanks here and interest rates drop then it might be good bolt hole.

donnie
14-06-2004, 11:17 AM
Maybe the admin should include a non share folder in the off topic section for people that dont want to talk about shares.

KJ
14-06-2004, 11:25 AM
Good points skinny-I guess the main risk is with the new projects.However,currently around 450,000 people are over 65-this is expected to grow to 924,000 by 2026.

Oracle
14-06-2004, 11:34 AM
The aged care sector has a problem with the new Holidays Act. Increased costs of sick & holiday leave, are significant, & the Govt, care subsidy, has not increased for many years. It probably affects RYM & MET less than others, because of their "retirement," rather than "aged care" emphasis.

foodee
14-06-2004, 12:34 PM
Well said Oracle.
'Aged care' is a real mine field. Funding is more & more reliant on Govt, especially when the qualifying for subsidy is exempt from asset testing kicks in - already signalled by Govt. Thus unless co-payment from the client is possible (Govt may bar or limit this), the 'aged care' provider is in dire strait.
I.E. increasing costs, 'capped' funding = diminishing profits and/or dimishing services/standards.

KJ
14-06-2004, 01:30 PM
Foodee-could you explain in more detail please as I don'tfollow.

Oracle
14-06-2004, 01:58 PM
KJ

Go to the Abano website, & read their May newsletter, the last page!

Placebo
14-06-2004, 03:09 PM
Think there was a mention on here about a company going round buying up private rest homes with a view to listing. Indicates that a third listed rest home provider may be on the horizon. A crowded marketplace?

Definitely a growth area, but between MET and Ryman, who's going to pick a winner/dominant player? Upsides for both of them.

foodee
14-06-2004, 03:28 PM
KJ
Basically let us say there are 3 stages in aging:-
[1] Retirement
[2] 'Aged care' - used to be nursing care and leading to [3]
[3] Long term hospital care

[1] Retirment - retirement villages privately funded - a niche property play.

[2] 'Aged care' - with the signalled abolition of asset testing Govt will be the main funder - trusts will be less relevant for those who have use them to ring fence their estate. The aged care provider will feel the full force of the Govt 'capped budget' concept. To minimise 'profitering' the Govt will probably bar the provider from charging the client over and above the Govt 'subsidy', that is to say the funding is deemed to be full payment for the care. This capped budget takes no notice of any increase in costs (most of them are because of Govt's policies in other areas, like holiday pay!). All these will lead to erosion of profits, services and standards.

[3] Just a progression from [2] except more costly to run.

OK this is a growth sector requiring many thousands of beds in the not too distant future, but who wants to provide the beds if there is no meaningful margins.
Be that as it may 'aged care' is an essential part of the health system. Just maybe it is 'too hard' for the private sector.
Lots to think about and one day I may be a client!

disc: not a holder

Lawso
14-06-2004, 08:12 PM
Great post, foodee. Many thanks. And to ratkin for kicking it off.

The sector has obvious growth capability and would seem to have investment potential but you've given us plenty to think about. As I've had occasion to say elsewhere - but all too rarely, I fear - this is what ST is/should be all about

Harrys
15-06-2004, 09:24 PM
I have had some experience as secretary for a charitable village and rest home operator. Small operators cannot make a go of it. A rest home with less than 40 beds is not viable. Elderly folks like the best of both worlds - independence while they are able then with progressivly more support as they become more vulnerable. Rymans are doing this and they can make quite a good profit out of the cottages side because residents have an average time of about 5 years then rymans can resell the right to occupy to someone else. The profits made here make the higher-cost parts of the operation worth while.
Iam a new boy in the shares game but RYM was first on my list about 8 mths ago and I am pleased with them.:)

ratkin
16-06-2004, 06:15 AM
I will not be buying more at the present price, however sometime in the next four months there will probably be another good topping up opportunity.
Ryman can go months between announcements and the price often shows some weakness simply due to lack of interest.
The company quietly grows at a steady pace without attracting hype, thats why i like it.
Might not be so many opportunities to pick it up at a bargain now though as its come onto the radar of the brokerage houses and funds

ratkin
30-07-2004, 06:22 AM
Anyonw going to the AGM in the crowne plaza ?

k1w1
30-07-2004, 08:57 AM
Do they just read out the speeches that get posted on the web-site?
Is it a boring afternoon tea spread?

If so you can have my proxy.:)

James K
30-07-2004, 01:17 PM
I looked at both MET and RYM smoe years ago. What I never liked (esp. MET) was the reliance on re-sales of occupancy licences - they were a big proportion of profits and volatile.

Also, from memory these two coys have big differences in how they account for revenues/profits etc. MET had some dodgy accounting that led to a securities Cmomission enquiry (about the time Cliff Cook moved to desputy from the big cheese). I never really got my head around it, but figured there had to be easier (and less volatile) things I could invest in.

Not trying to downplay RYM, the two founders have done a good job. Building their own villages (rather than outsourcng) has also seemed like a good call, (so long as they keep the developments going and the punters keep rolling (being wheeled?) on up).

ratkin
02-09-2004, 06:19 AM
When will the stock stop going up!!!
Knew it was a goodie and good to see market finally agrees, took a few years to catch on though.
Downside is am no longer able to accumulate at bargain prices

Oracle
02-09-2004, 07:37 AM
Ratkin

You may not have seen my posts on MET thread. RYM now probably overpriced, not MET. I would like to see merger. Very complementary locations. Need size, & why compete against another major?

Cook & Todd of MET have just ended 5 year standstill agreement. How will they use tax losses?

Noddy
02-09-2004, 04:39 PM
This stock I bought last year at 1.70 due to both strong fundamentals and a nice looking chart (TA). So far it has surpassed my expectations. Tried to break through $3 several times and strong breakout of recent days suggests we have not seen the top just yet.

The other stock I bought at around the same time and for similar reasons was EBO. also at a new high today.

Bobby
24-09-2004, 09:48 AM
Now that there is no news on RYM the ususal buying lull has set in. I for one have taken the opportunity to top up and will do so again should it get anywhere near, or south of, $3.00. With a significant land bank, developments funded out of capital not debt and a modest 14 - 15 PE, this has a lot of growth left in it, especially when one considers the Remuera and Napier homes from which fees should soon come on stream. Any other takers to top up?

rmbbrave
24-09-2004, 11:39 AM
I am keen to buy a few more too but I have been waitng for the shares to stop going up!

I bought at 1.68 and 1.83 so $3 looks expensive. However teh shares have fallen for 5 straight days - it might be time to buy soon.

StainlessSteelRat
24-09-2004, 04:49 PM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

I am keen to buy a few more too but I have been waitng for the shares to stop going up!

I bought at 1.68 and 1.83 so $3 looks expensive. However teh shares have fallen for 5 straight days - it might be time to buy soon.


Interesting to note that MET has been dropping during the same period. I find it hard to decide between the two.

rmbbrave
27-09-2004, 02:22 PM
In the end I bought a few more at $3.12.

It took a while for the trade to got through though. Maybe there aren't that many willing sellers.

bermuda
27-09-2004, 03:57 PM
Ryman are a continuing growth story and are looking to increase their wealth by 15% per annum.Given the increasing older age profile and the fact that Ryman has its own construction company Ryman will continue to outperform....with no surprises.

Kookaburra
27-09-2004, 09:21 PM
I wonder if they might be tempted across the ditch. They seem to ahve a good formula and only lack liquidity which could be easily addressed with a major exansion this way. Plenty of oldies here too!

ratkin
28-09-2004, 04:44 AM
Since i started this topic the stock seems to have been well and truly discovered and the value has rapidly dissapeared.
Still remains a very good long term prospect, i want more shares but am hoping for a typical october share price slump. Sooner or later something will happen that will hitr the market hard then i will top up.

The 15% EPS growth should be sustainable for some time. Once they have all the old crunchies in their homes and have reached critical mass they will then be able to move more into the healthcare side.


Tip of the day ............. The south island run companys are the ones to be on. Sensible leadership and not as flash as the jaffa operations

rmbbrave
01-10-2004, 12:53 AM
quote:Originally posted by ratkin

Still remains a very good long term prospect, i want more shares but am hoping for a typical october share price slump.

Is there really a slump in October? Across the whole market? Or just Ryman? If so, why?


If there is a "slump" I will join you in buying more of these shares?

rmbbrave
07-10-2004, 12:46 PM
Ryman up another 10cents today. I am glad I bought more at $3.12. Even that price is starting to look cheap now.

Bobby
07-10-2004, 01:56 PM
yes yes yes. I topped up at 2.27, 2.78 and 3.13 and am a happy chappy indeed. I love the elderly.

Bobby
11-11-2004, 12:57 PM
Someone is putting some serious selling pressure on - no news ie SSH that I can see. Anyone know anything about this - is it something to do with index fre-adjustments and instos rebalancing their portfolios????

rmbbrave
19-11-2004, 11:45 AM
Ryman posts record $11.1m profit

Profits up 32%!

Dividend up 25%

Ryman really is a success story.

But is it fully priced?

19.11.2004
1.00pm
Ryman Healthcare today posted a record $11.1 million net profit after tax for the six months to September, up from $8.4 million for the same period last year.

The listed resthome operator said the result was achieved on total operating revenue of $57.43m against $50.72m for the previous corresponding period.

The company said it will pay an unimputed interim dividend of 5c per share compared with 4c last year. The dividend increase was a reflection of the increase in the company's earnings it said in a statement to the NZX.

Ryman managing director Kevin Hickman said the solid result was driven by growth in the group's retirement village assets and a buoyant property market.

"We plan to continue rapid growth, in line with our target of increasing our profits at the rate of 15 per cent per annum," Mr Hickman said.

The company has construction projects underway in Auckland, Hamilton, Napier, Wellington and Invercargill, with more developments planned for next year in Wanganui, Lower Hutt and Christchurch.

Ryman has villages, resthomes and hospitals in Invercargill, Dunedin, Christchurch, Wellington, Lower Hutt, Napier, Hamilton and Auckland, providing homes and care services to more than 2300 people.

Ryman shares popped 7c higher on opening this morning to $3.30.

- NZPA

ratkin
19-11-2004, 02:07 PM
Most so called growth stocks would kill for the type of EPS performance ryman has been churning out in the last few years.
Can see them creeping over the 4 dollar mark in the next year , maybe much sooner.
Still look well worth holding onto, any downturn in the property market could have some effect, however would probably be a good time to top up.

All looking good

rmbbrave
19-11-2004, 10:12 PM
Ratkin,

I know you are a keen on Ryman and I too have been a big fan of Ryman for the past 18 months. I bought at 1.68, 1.83, 3.12 and 3.26.

But lately I have started thinking that Ryman has peaked. Certainly if you look at the graph below it does show that Ryman is starting to track sideways.

http://stockwatch.nzherald.co.nz/quote.asp?GMC=100&Symbol=RYM

I am well aware that Ryman keeps showing good profits and dividends but I am thinking about moving on. I suppose I need some reassurance to stay with Ryman. Can you give me any?

ratkin
20-11-2004, 08:25 AM
Depends on your perspective, if you are a chart watcher then i guess you will go.

Personally i have put these in the bottom draw and will not sell unless the fundamentals start to decline. At the moment they are forecasting growth annually of 15%, if this turns to reality then this stock will continue its upward trend.

Can they do it? Well they have so far, they are one of the best growth stories in NZ in the last few years, furthermore it is not even in a particularly risky sector. Their asset base continues to grow along with profits so unless there is a massive property slump then there seems little that can go wrong.

The retirement villages themselves appear very well run and it looks like the elderly find them very appealing.
Furthermore, there will be opportunities to move more into the h\ealthcare side of matters once they reach full capscity on the number of villages they own.

The number of vilages could continue to grow for quite sometime as the number of elderly increase, all in all i am still very excited about the long term prospects for ryman, and being in the fortunate position of purchacing for an average price of 1.72 am laughing all the way to the bank on this one.

Dividends should continue to rise steadily over the next five years making these a very good investment indeed.

Bobby
22-11-2004, 07:48 AM
They are currently working on the Remuera home with 500 bed occupancy! - this is a major asset to their portfolio and will add major revenue streams. Why on earth would you consideer selling just because of a little sideways movement - NOG went nowhere fast in the 30 - 40 cent bracket for ages (yes I know thats a different story but you lot seem to like anything related to NOG) - just hold your horses.

Apologies for FA rant.

Phaedrus
23-11-2004, 08:25 AM
While RYM has been in a downtrend since mid October, this should be viewed within the context of its 18 month uptrend.
There is a confirmed trendline in place and current price action is above this. A trendline break would give a good Sell signal here. Using trendline breaks with RYM would have resulted in 2 trades since April 2003 and not everyone wants to trade that frequently. More conservative, less active investors could perhaps look to sell on the break of a 150 day exponential moving average, or a break below a Trailing Stop such as the 12x ATR trailing stop plotted here.
Without an exit strategy, you are simply holding and hoping.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/RYM001.gif

KJ
23-11-2004, 09:46 AM
Phaedrus-I would value your comments.

I have recently been trying to get a better understanding of some aspects of TA to assist with buy and sell strategies.

With regard to Bollinger bands and RSI I have noted that they appear to be very accurate with the buy side.

In particular,if the share price breaks the lower B band and the share price starts to rise,in conjunction with RSI having a value between 0 and 10,then this appears to be a very strong buy indicator.

I have tested it with shares that I hold and appears to be correct about 90% of the time.
I would be interested in your comments.
RYM, back in July is a prime example.

rmbbrave
23-11-2004, 10:53 AM
Phaedrus,

Would it not be equally valid to draw your 2nd green line through dips starting at 2.3, 2.7, the first 3.1 and lastly at 3.25?

If you did that wouldn't the lastest price dip be below that line and therefore constitute a sell signal?

Phaedrus
23-11-2004, 11:12 AM
rmbbrave,
Sure, that would be quite valid - such a trendline would have given a good exit, and more active traders using this trendline would have sold already and be waiting for a break of the current (shorter term) downward trendline before buying again. You have moved into a shorter timeframe though, and I have the impression that the majority of ShareTrader contributors do not want to trade that actively, so the chart did not highlight the secondary trends that together constitute the overall uptrend. The posted chart was primarily aimed at long-term holders of RYM that have no exit strategy.

rmbbrave
25-11-2004, 03:04 PM
This was in the Herald today...

"Shares in Ryman Healthcare were unchanged on 321c after it today confirmed it was opening a new retirement village in Napier."

Does anyone have the full announcement?

KJ
25-11-2004, 03:16 PM
Rmbbrave-saw details when they announced annual results in May-cost $20m and was due to have opened in Sept.
Also in their annual report.

rmbbrave
25-11-2004, 03:22 PM
Thanks very much for clarifying that KJ.

It thought that the Herald was saying something new but it appears this news is six months old.

rmbbrave
03-12-2004, 10:44 AM
Ryman is up to new highs.

$3.50 today.

I was tempted to sell up a few weeks back but after listening to everyone's advive decided to buy more. I am glad I did. I first bought at 1.68 in June 03.

Thanks very much guys. This is what Sharetrader should be about - not childish bickering.

Lawso
03-12-2004, 03:31 PM
As I've just posted on another thread. Brian Gaynor picks RYM as not only the best prospect in this very competitive sector, but one of his top picks across the board for 2005.

Bobby
03-12-2004, 07:19 PM
Am glad I am overweighted to the hilt.

Snow Leopard
03-12-2004, 08:28 PM
Freed up some funds from HQP to put into RYM today, and then the RYM SP does better out of a MET takeover rumour than MET :(. (Well not quite but it makes a better movie script).
Can you guys talk it down over the weekend please? [:I]

Oracle
03-12-2004, 08:49 PM
PT

How can you talk down the MET takeover? Surely it has to happen.


The 5 year stand still agreement ended. Now as I understand it, if Cook or Todd want out, the other has to buy it, or a 3rd party buys both. Then has to be offered to all shareholders.

How friendly are Cook & Todd? Apparently different philosophies.

Todd must have agreed to Alexcich being poached, surely.

Cook is duplicating MET in UK, by my research. He is a significant partner to a real estate company.

Is there an expert who can advise on what happens to the massive tax losses sitting in MET? If the buyer buys Todd Lifecare & Private Healthcare, does it preserve the required continuity? If it does the shares must be worth more than $3.50. All IMHO.

I believed someone was holding the shareprice last week, bought another 30,000, at $2.60.

rmbbrave
03-12-2004, 11:22 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lawso

As I've just posted on another thread. Brian Gaynor picks RYM as not only the best prospect in this very competitive sector, but one of his top picks across the board for 2005.


I have a lot of time for Brian Gaynor so I would like to read his article. Could you please tell me where I can see it.

Lawso
04-12-2004, 07:44 PM
rmbbrave: I was simply reporting some points from BG's talk this week to the Auck branch of the NZ Shareholders Assn. I posted more on the Market Driven? thread. There is no "article". BG's article in today's NZ Herald discusses mainly KIP and other listed property businesses and the "obscene" profits made by their management companies. This he also discussed at some length in his talk on Wednesday evening.

rmbbrave
05-12-2004, 12:32 PM
Thanks very much Lawso.

ratkin
07-12-2004, 03:33 PM
I was expecting the price to fall back after the div date.
355 today, is something about to happen?

Oracle
07-12-2004, 05:32 PM
ratkin

Dividend irrelevant. All related To MET takeover, by Aussies?

MET & RYM still make a good fit, even though emphasis is slightly different. Very complimentary, location wise!

I still think MET a good take-over opportunity for Todd.

Ratkin, Hows the Betfair..are UK horses still doing ok?

ratkin
08-12-2004, 07:54 PM
Nothing changed on the betfair front, still making good trading profits, the prospect of an australian ban also seems to be receding.

Where is all this talk of merger with metlife coming from?
Always makes me nervous that type of thing. Some good companies often come a cropper once they start merging/ aquiring ie Baycorp, warehouse etc

Snow Leopard
09-12-2004, 12:49 PM
Some just sold for 334.
It would seem that we are moving back to the real world here.

rmbbrave
09-12-2004, 01:21 PM
PT,

Wasn't 398 shares was it?

I just had that many bought for me. Part of an unfilled order I placed on Dec 2. I was a bit suprised too, I thought that order was filled and my brokers computer had started a shopping spree with my money!

Snow Leopard
09-12-2004, 01:23 PM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

PT,

Wasn't 398 shares was it?

I just had that many bought for me. Part of an unfilled order I placed on Dec 2. I was a bit suprised too, I thought that order was filled and my brokers computer had started a shopping spree with my money!


Yes it was.

Runswifscissors
09-12-2004, 06:08 PM
<pre id="code">Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

PT,

Wasn't 398 shares was it?

I just had that many bought for me. Part of an unfilled order I placed on Dec 2. I was a bit suprised too, I thought that order was filled and my brokers computer had started a shopping spree with my money!
</pre id="code">

Yes it was.

If you two had just got together you could have saved yourselves brokers fees.

Snow Leopard
09-12-2004, 06:21 PM
I was just making a general comment that the price had dropped from the troposphere and I did not in fact buy any at said price. :)
I am of the opinion that the SP is still on the high side and I am hoping that it will fall further.
If it gets down to a number I am happy with then Ryman will be added to my long term portfolio, otherwise I will spend elsewhere.

I did have a rather cheeky bid in at one point today just in case someone wanted to sell out at any price, but no one took the offering. [V]

Harrys
09-12-2004, 08:13 PM
Paper Tiger. And what number will you be happy with? At todays price of 3.44 its on a PE of 15.6
Its been on that for 3 mnths. Ive chose Rym as the
first stock I ever bought in Aug 03 because I knew a bit about the retirement village business and how they make their money. They have been steadily on the rise and their business will continue to grow. Even if you pay nex years price now, you will be laughing in 2 yrs time.

Snow Leopard
09-12-2004, 08:27 PM
quote:Originally posted by Harrys

Paper Tiger. And what number will you be happy with? At todays price of 3.44 its on a PE of 15.6
Its been on that for 3 mnths. Ive chose Rym as the
first stock I ever bought in Aug 03 because I knew a bit about the retirement village business and how they make their money. They have been steadily on the rise and their business will continue to grow. Even if you pay nex years price now, you will be laughing in 2 yrs time.

Hi Harrys
15.6 based on what numbers? You doubling up the half year profit I presume and quoting a forward P/E?
Short term prices go up and prices go down.
Despite all the talk of not being able to time purchases it is something I try and do. Sometimes it works beautifully and sometimes it don't but it makes the buying more fun.

regards

Paper Tiger

Harrys
10-12-2004, 09:56 PM
Paper Tiger

The pe is based on a forecast profit of 22m FY05 and there is no reason to doubt that they will make it. A reccession proof industry.

rmbbrave
16-12-2004, 02:17 AM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Some just sold for 334.
It would seem that we are moving back to the real world here.



Thanks very much for the shares Paper Tiger. RYM has just closed at a new high $3.65. I bought my first lot at 1.68 and my second at 1.83 a year about and a half ago. If they had closed 1 cent higher today I would have doubled my money on the second lot too. Oh well - maybe tomorrow.

Thanks also for running the share picking comp. I still haven't decided whether to chose RYM as one of my 5.

Snow Leopard
16-12-2004, 06:36 AM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Some just sold for 334.
It would seem that we are moving back to the real world here.



Thanks very much for the shares Paper Tiger. RYM has just closed at a new high $3.65. I bought my first lot at 1.68 and my second at 1.83 a year about and a half ago. If they had closed 1 cent higher today I would have doubled my money on the second lot too. Oh well - maybe tomorrow.

Thanks also for running the share picking comp. I still haven't decided whether to chose RYM as one of my 5.


Can I just try and clarify again that my 334 comment was a general comment I did not buy or sell any shares at that price. I was keeping a close watch on the RYM price at the time, looking to try and pick some up at a lowish price.

rmbbrave
16-12-2004, 10:55 AM
Sorry PT,

I thought you bought 398 shares at the same time I sold them.

rmbbrave
18-04-2005, 01:35 PM
Ryman still expanding and the price down to 3.31 so far today.

I sold up a while back but I'm looking to get back in.


08 Apr 2005 03:53
ASSET: RYM: Ryman buys Salvation Army resthome in Napier

Media Release - April 8, 2005

Ryman buys Salvation Army resthome in Napier

Retirement village operator Ryman Healthcare has purchased a 52-bed
Salvation Army resthome on a 1.1 hectare site so it can expand its new
Princess Alexandra retirement village in Napier.

The resthome is strategically located next door to Ryman''s existing
Princess Alexandra village.

Ryman Development Manager Ray Versey said the resthome would be rebuilt
and merged into a fully integrated retirement village. Mr Versey said they
are currently scaling up the rate of construction at the site.

``Once completed, the village will be able to provide 120 independent and
serviced apartments, a resthome, special care and hospital beds.''''

The public company''s growth strategy continues nationwide, he said.

Planning approval has also been issued for a new village on the
magnificent St John''s Hill site in Wanganui. Construction will commence in
the next few weeks.

Resource consent has also been granted for an additional 62 townhouses at
the very successful Shona McFarlane retirement village in Lower Hutt.
Construction will start shortly.

Ryman''s annual result will be released next month. Last year they posted a
record annual net profit of $18.4 million up 20 percent on the previous year.

The company has villages, resthomes and hospitals in Invercargill,
Dunedin, Christchurch, Wellington, Lower Hutt, Napier, Hamilton and Auckland.
They employ 1300 staff and provide homes for more than 2500 New Zealanders.

Ends

Media advisory: For further information contact Kevin Hickman on 03
3664069 or 027 4321227 or Kip Brook at Word of Mouth Media NZ 03 374 5426 or
0275 033855
End CA:00113849 For:RYM Type:ASSET Time:2005-04-08:15:53:18

Dazza
18-04-2005, 07:52 PM
was going to buy into this rest home business.

but narr... what both rym and met only have around 3k oldies?! out of how many oldies are there in nzl... couped with the government wanting ppl to die in their homes instead of rest home...

at the moment narrr no old folks homes for me.

im thinking of a keen scheme when im older, gonna buy outright rest homes sup them up with blister packs :D, imagine the cost savings im gonna get with my drugs :D

truedragon
18-04-2005, 07:53 PM
Anybody know what EPS they will have for the coming annoucement?

Oracle
18-04-2005, 09:42 PM
Truedragon

I would guess about 23cents.

Of real interest was todays MET announcement. If Todd buy it, Aussie interest may turn to RYM. Price action of RYM lately has been related to MET action, and Fisher buying. All imho.

rmbbrave
20-04-2005, 11:22 AM
For anyone who is interested, I reckon the RYM graph is showing a potential triple bottom.

http://portfolio.findata.co.nz/Quote.aspx?e=NZX&s=RYM

Am I correct that this will be confirmed if the SP exceeds 3.90?

If it does, according to TA theory this constitutes a strong buy signal.

http://www.streetauthority.com/terms/triplebottomformation.asp

rmbbrave
16-05-2005, 08:05 AM
His colleague John Cairns has cast his eye over Ryman Healthcare - which reports on Friday, May 20 - and forecasts a profit of $22.5 million.

Bobby
21-09-2005, 06:51 PM
Geez RYMAN is boring, all it does is go up and up and up. I'm sick of it. Granted, I own quite a few and am making some nice coin, but I have to grumble about something[:p]

Seriously though, is pushing fully valued territory, am I expect to see some good numbers in November or we may yet see some retraction and a more realistic top up opportunity.:)

Snow Leopard
07-10-2005, 06:45 PM
Ryman seems to have shed some excess fat:
$4.95 to $4.51 in one week.
This still leaves it fully priced in my very humble opinion.

Would be interested to hear Bobby's thoughts now.

Edit: whoops [:I]

Snow Leopard
17-11-2005, 12:46 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Ryman seems to have shed some excess fat:
$4.95 to $4.51 in one week.
This still leaves it fully priced in my very humble opinion.

Would be interested to hear Bobby's thoughts now.

Edit: whoops [:I]


perhaps I need to retract this statement:

Half Year profit up 54% (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=RYM&E=NZSE&N=123824)

rmbbrave
17-11-2005, 03:33 PM
I'm still in.

RYM
17/11/2005
HALFYR

REL: 1253 HRS Ryman Healthcare Limited

HALFYR: RYM: Ryman rises to new level - profit up 54 percent

Listed retirement village operator Ryman Healthcare's earnings have risen to
a new level following today's record half yearly announcement of a $17.1
million net surplus, up 54 percent on the same period last year.

Chairman Dr David Kerr said the record profit reflected a substantial lift
in the sustainable earning capacity of the company.

He said the company expected to match this performance in the second half
of the financial year.

``The current half year result is an excellent achievement and reflects
the company lifting to a higher level of profitability.''

Revenues rose 18 percent in the half year to September 30 with
particularly strong growth in the sale of occupation rights to retirement
village units.

Directors declared an interim dividend of 8 cents up from 5 cents last
year, which will be paid on December 9.

Managing director Kevin Hickman said Ryman was on target to build more
than 250 retirement village units a year and the current landbank is
sufficient to build 1200 new beds or retirement village units.

``We are also looking at new sites to drive the expansion of our village
portfolio.

``This has gained considerable momentum over the past six months with new
land acquired in Napier and Dunedin, two new construction sites established
and the development team being expanded to handle the increased rate of
development.''

Ryman is currently building in Auckland, Hamilton, Napier, Wanganui, Lower
Hutt and Invercargill. Resource consent applications are being processed for
the new Halswell retirement village in Christchurch and for a new apartment
block at the Malvina Major retirement village in Wellington.

Another Wellington village, Shona McFarlane in Lower Hutt, was recently
named the best retirement village in New Zealand at the Australasian Aged
Care Housing awards. This is the fifth time the company has won the award of
excellence.

Ryman's new and 14th retirement village in Wanganui will open in the new
year. The village on the historic Sacred Heart College site was named after
pioneering New Zealand woman pilot Jane Winstone, who was killed flying a
Spitfire during World War 2.

The company provides homes and care services to more than 2600 New
Zealanders, employing more than 1400 staff.

Ends

Media advisory: For further information, photos, interviews or comment
please contact Dr David Kerr on 021 362 403 or Kevin Hickman on 03 3664069 or
0274 321 227 or Kip Brook at Word of Mouth Media NZ on 0275 033855

CONSOLIDATED OPERATING STATEMENT FOR THE HALF YEAR ENDED 30/09/2005

Unaudited

Current Period : Previous Corresponding Period

OPERATING REVENUE
Trading Revenue 67,333,000 : 56,938,000
Other Revenue 262,000 : 491,000
Total Operating Revenue 67,595,000 : 57,429,000

OPERATING SURPLUS (DEFICIT) BEFORE TAXATION
17,061,000 : 11,099,000

Less taxation on operating profit NIL : NIL
OPERATING SURPLUS (DEFICIT) AFTER TAX
17,061,000 : 11,099,000

Extraordinary items after tax NIL : NIL

Unrealised net change in value of investment properties NIL: NIL

NET SURPLUS (DEFICIT) FOR THE PERIOD
17,061,000 : 11,099,000

Net Surplus (Deficit) attributable to minority interests NIL: NIL

NET SURPLUS (DEFICIT) ATTRIBUTABLE TO MEMBERS OF THE LISTED ISSUER
17,061,000 : 11,099,000

EPS 17.06cps : 11.10cps

Interim Dividend: 8cps
Record Date: 02/12/2005
Payment Date: 9/12/2005
Imputation tax credit: No Imputation Credit
End CA:00123824 For:RYM Type:HALFYR Time:2005-11-17:12:53:22

k1w1
17-11-2005, 05:25 PM
Me too.

k1w1
18-11-2005, 10:28 AM
In fact you should all brace yourself as I just bought some more and that generally causes a SP to fall.

rmbbrave
19-11-2005, 05:17 PM
Ryman shares ride a profit high
18 November 2005
By PAUL GORMAN

Ryman Healthcare shares have climbed to a new high on yet another stellar financial performance.


The listed retirement village operator is predicting a record-breaking full-year net profit after releasing its latest six-month net profit.

Ryman yesterday posted an after-tax surplus of $17.1 million in the half year to September 30. That was up 54 per cent on the previous six-month profit of $11.09 million, which was itself 31.6 per cent higher than the September 2003 half-year profit.

The latest six-monthly profit was made on revenue of $67.6 million, an 18 per cent increase on last year's interim $57.43 million.

Ryman shares rose sharply yesterday, trading as high as $5.20 before closing at $5.05, up 10c on the day.

Managing director Kevin Hickman said the company was confident the performance would continue for the rest of the financial year.

In the year to March 31, Ryman made a then record $23.52 million after-tax surplus.

"I can't see any reason why we'd do less (business) in the second half."

Directors declared an interim dividend of 8c a share, up from 5c last year, to be paid on December 9.

Chairman Dr David Kerr said the latest profit reflected a "substantial lift" in the sustainable earning capacity of the company, with especially strong growth in the sale of retirement units.

Mr Hickman said Ryman had made "great progress" since it floated in 1999.

"The people who put their faith in us at the start, paying $1.35 for their shares, it's a pretty good return from there."

Hamilton Hindin Greene client adviser James Smalley said it was "just another great result in a line of great results".

"The company had forecast they would be ahead of their projections of 15 per cent (annual growth). This is another example of them under-promising and over-performing .

"It's almost a snowball effect. The bigger they get, the more effective they become."

Mr Hickman said Ryman was actively seeking sites around New Zealand. It was building in Invercargill, Auckland, Hamilton, Napier, Wanganui and Lower Hutt, and had secured sites in Dunedin and Napier. It was hoping to get a resource consent application hearing for its new Christchurch retirement village before Christmas.

Lizard
19-11-2005, 05:33 PM
Does anyone here get the pay data from the NZX? I think that shows cashflows and, more importantly, what was added to shareholders equity over the period. I would really like to see that number if anyone has it...

Snow Leopard
19-11-2005, 06:02 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Does anyone here get the pay data from the NZX? I think that shows cashflows and, more importantly, what was added to shareholders equity over the period. I would really like to see that number if anyone has it...

I think that your thinking is wrong. NZX has a number of data products that you can pay for, none of which are value for money for an individual investor, unless you have mega-bucks to spend. Additionally none of which contain the information you are hoping for...
As far as I am aware at half year you get what the company publicly reveals full stop.

http://www.nzx.com/products/data_products

Lizard
19-11-2005, 06:36 PM
Thanks PT.

I thought I had seen this info somewhere though. Journalists and analysts often seem to have access to it...as does the ASX for stocks that are dual listed (and often don't post the equivalent info to the NZX).

BTW, that always seems slightly unfair - I can't see announcements to the NZX until a 20 min delay has passed, but if the share is ASX listed, I can look it up straight away....

And again, some presentations have to be requested from LCR@nzx, yet you can download the whole deal from the ASX...

Lizard
19-11-2005, 08:14 PM
Paper Tiger, I just downloaded the sample weekly report from that NZX link. In all cases, where it reports a result, there is a statement of shareholders equity. Unfortunately, the example is from June 2003 - so either they used to always provide that data in general announcements (and now don't) or they used to provide it in the NZX weekly report (and now don't) or thirdly, you can get it if you pay $500 pa+ to the NZX...

Personally, I think the level of info general investors are provided on the NZX announcements is inferior...but maybe wrong.

Snow Leopard
19-11-2005, 09:10 PM
You will find that in the dim and distant past (June 2003) announcements contained hard figures and commentary instead of, as is permitted now, a profit number and plenty of fertilizer about how well the company is doing.

Go trawl through http://stocknessmonster.com who have 5 years of announcements archived and you wil be able to match up your weekly diary download with the actual announcements.

I totally agree with on the level of info provided. Announcements come out as badly formatted text and presentations you have to ask for individually. [I am sure they must spend more than $500+GST on staff costs just answering my requests for presentations].

The IT department at NZX sucks big time.

Lizard
20-11-2005, 07:02 AM
Last presentation I asked for just bounced off the mailbox, as it was too big. Helpful-not! But yes, I suspect I get my $500 worth too...

Anyway, thanks PT - best I let this thread get back to discussing Ryman! (Great company - I just don't happen to own any).

rmbbrave
22-11-2005, 08:20 PM
NZ stocks: Fletcher Building drags NZ market down

22.11.05 5.30pm
By Simon Louisson


The sharemarket softened slightly today with No 3 stock Fletcher Building dragging the market down.

The benchmark NZSX-50 index closed down 6.63 points to 3327.35, and the NZSX-All capital index fell 1.33 points to 1018.79.

Brokers said trading was dull with turnover worth around $120m, according to early estimates.

Fletcher Building dropped 14c to 741 on news that chief executive Ralph Waters had sold a quarter of his shares. The stock had also run up on rugby World Cup euphoria on the basis it would win infrastrucuture contracts but that dissipated today.

Hamilton Hindin Greene broker Grant Williamson said it should not be a major negative as the sale was due to a prior commitment and Mr Waters had committed not to sell more shares while he remained chief executive.

Market leader Telecom rose to 613 but couldn't sustain the rise, closing down 1c on 605. It announced an on-market share buyback of 5m shares to counteract the effects of the dividend reinvestment scheme.

Mainfreight was one of the session's stars, rising 9c to 349 on its result. Mr Williamson said the company seemed to have put problems with Owens and its Australian operations behind it.

"It continues to improve quarter after quarter. It's now firing on all cylinders."

Ryman Healthcare, which also had a good result last week, rose 16c to a record 548. It was boosted by news AMP Capital intended to take over the country's largest unlisted retirement village operator, Summerset Holdings. That would leave Ryman as the only listed player in the field and virtually the only major New Zealand-owned operator.

rmbbrave
23-11-2005, 12:09 PM
01:03PM - Ryman announces new village site acquistion in Palmerston Nth

Placebo
24-11-2005, 08:43 AM
....well, time to climb aboard this train! :D

rmbbrave
24-11-2005, 12:41 PM
23 Nov 2005 01:03
ASSET: RYM: Ryman announces new village site acquistion in Palmerston Nth

Listed retirement village operator Ryman Healthcare today announced they had
bought land in Palmerston North for their 15th retirement village.

Ryman have bought a 3.2 hectare block of land next to the prestigious
Clearview Park subdivision and reserve by the Milson shopping centre on
Milson Line.

The site is flat, north facing, with views across to the airport runway.
It is close to the central city and public hospital facilities.

Ryman plan to develop a comprehensive retirement village, including 80
independent villas, 50 serviced apartments, with a village centre, indoor
swimming pool, all weather outdoor bowling green and numerous other
facilities.

Development manager Ray Versey said the site was an ideal location for a
village.

``We are thrilled to be able to secure it for the elderly people of
Palmerston North,'''' he said today.

``We also plan to build a 40 bed care centre. Ryman will apply to the
Palmerston North City Council for resource consent early next year.

Ryman, one of New Zealand''s most experienced retirement village
providers, recently reported a half yearly $17.1 million net surplus, up 54
percent on the same period last year.

Ryman is currently building in Auckland, Hamilton, Napier, Wanganui, Lower
Hutt and Invercargill. Resource consent applications are being processed for
the new Halswell retirement village in Christchurch and for a new apartment
block at the Malvina Major retirement village in Wellington.
The company provides homes and care services to more than 2600 New
Zealanders, employing more than 1400 staff.
Ends

Media advisory: For further information, photos, interviews or comment
please contact Ray Versey on 03 3664069 or Kip Brook at Word of Mouth Media
NZ on 0275 033855
End CA:00124161 For:RYM Type:ASSET Time:2005-11-23:13:03:04

TheBossMan
09-12-2005, 06:52 AM
I've started accumulating RYM shares for long-term. Given their increasing market share, number of units to be built in the next 5 years (around 900), existing land bank, pent-up demand, asset turn-over, my valuation of this firm is $9, with an investment horizon of 5 years. Even assuming zero growth after 2020, the share price is still worth $8.75.

Their RNOA is 26% and set to increase to 32%. Residual operating income of $36million to reach $55 million or so. At a share price of $5.50 last week, the market was assuming NO growth in residual earnings!! The current SP is $5.10. If you buy at these levels and put them away, you could almost double your money. I also expect the firm to buyback shares at some stage. Consider the directors' confidence in announcing 54% operating profit and increasing the dividend payout ratio.

Happy to discuss numbers if anyone is interested.

rmbbrave
09-12-2005, 10:53 PM
I'm intersested - Ryman has been a great share.

Give us all the numbers you've got!

rmbbrave
09-12-2005, 11:11 PM
Ryman buys Nelson land
09 December 2005

Listed retirement village operator Ryman Healthcare said today it has purchased land in Nelson for its 18th village.


"We see Nelson as a very important New Zealand retirement centre and we have been looking for some time for a first class site in the city," development manager Ray Versey said.

The 4.4ha site in Stoke, Nelson, has space for up to 120 independent townhouses , 50 serviced apartments and a resthome.

The company posted a $17.1 million profit in the six months to September 30 a new record.

Ryman shares last traded steady at $5.10.

TheBossMan
10-12-2005, 06:49 AM
will do over the weekend. This additional 120 houses were not even factored in my valuation. I'll call the company on monday to see when the development would commence in Nelson.

One of the core competencies of Ryman is a quick turnaround time in construction-&gt;sales. They use in-house architects/builders, mostly from Christchurch. My understanding is, Metlife outsources most work.

Nelson unit prices will sell higher increasing the RNOA. It'd also contribute more in the 20% management fees built in to the occupancy advance.

People sitting on the fringes or thinking that this is a boring/saturated market, please re-consider. There is hardly any risk (even an isolated earthquake would not have a huge impact, considering the diverse locations), but much upside from here.

TheBossMan
16-12-2005, 10:22 PM
Initiating coverage on Ryman: my investment horizon is 5 years. Valuation indicates a share price of $8.30.:)

Ryman has had a spectacular growth in the past five years. It is the #2 player in the fragmented retirement village industry. Around 2600 residents live in 1400 apartments. There's also 1200 rest home and hospital care beds.

Ryman's revenue streams are: sales of new units, re-sales when residents move on, management fees (4% deducted annually from the initial occupancy loan, for 5 years). Ryman does not include their income from property revaluation in their income statement. It is tucked in the shareholder equity statement.

Industry consolidation is happening. Regulatory environment is not so much a concern, on the contrary, increase in asset testing threshold will only benefit Ryman.

Rymans business model is sound (Read Harrys post on 15/06/2004); very concise, but it sums up everything. Ryman is good at acquiring run-down sites or land in good residential area. It then builds integrated facilities and promotes its units to people living within 10-15km radius. Elderly people (around 70 years) sell their home (at-market value), buys a unit (gives Ryman an interest-free occupancy loan) and still has some $$ to spare. There is no maintenance hassles from then on. Ryman sells a lifestyle and not an investment.

The apartments/units turnover is 6-7 years. Then, the residents move on to aged care or move on (upto 20% is then deducted from the initial loan and Ryman refunds the remaining $$). Ryman then re-sells the occupancy right (at-market again).;)

Rymans core competencies include: in-house construction team, capable of building modular units, reduced cost structures. Their MD is an ex-detective and is quite adept in getting good sites. They have a very good board that backs the senior management. Read James Ks post (30/07/2004) not sure what Metlife did, but Ryman has a director who is an accounting professor & was also an NZX director. So it helps with auditing, transparency, and clean accounting practice.[^]

Ryman wants to grow 15% per annum; they have achieved more than that the past five years, and also demonstrated by the latest half-year report. 250 units a year is their target and they have a land bank to cater to that. Without any new land acquisitions, thats 1250 more units in 5 years.

For the financial year 2005, Rymans total revenues were $121 million, including care fees (29%), sales of new units (25%), re-sales of units (22%), and deferred management fees (5%). Sales were generated from NOA of $235 million, with an operating profit margin of 45.2% and asset turnover of 0.57. Comprehensive income (operating income + property re-valuation income) reached $52 million. Residual operating income (income less the required rate of return for its net assets) amounted to $36 million in 2005, shareholders equity of $185 million and total assets $243 million.

The last five years:
CSE has increased 20% per annum and has doubled $79 million to $186 million. Net financial obligations remained around $50 million for the five years. Average ROCE is 23%. RNOA has been 18%. Revenues increased on average by 22% annually from $60 million in 2001 to $121 million in 2005. Operating profit margins typically ranged between 35% and 45%. Asset turnover ranged from 0.37 to 0.58 with an average of 0.48.

Future prospects:
Demand is huge for retirement village units. Most apartments are pre-sold pretty much throughout the country. Yes, the 65+ demographics will increase 3% per year till 2025 (baby boomers, more life expectancy etc.), but only 5% of the existing elderly people are in retirement villages. Thats where I see the growth coming from.[:p]

Strong growth prospects, coupled with management focus on expansion plans, augur well for the firm.

Valuation:
At $5.40 (CMP), the market is assuming pretty much no growth in residual operating income. Given that the firm has consistently delivered, my view is that the market somehow thinks Ryman is only a property play. P/E is 17x,

rmbbrave
17-12-2005, 01:03 PM
That's a nice piece TB.

I bought my first parcel for 1.68 in June 2003.

TheBossMan
17-12-2005, 04:07 PM
I hope you're still holding them. Wait till 2007 or so and top up more. There may even be a share buy-back at some stage.

Placebo
19-12-2005, 02:35 PM
Nice work, Boss :D

Just wonder if you could elaborate on this:

quote:P/E is 17x, I think..but I look at comprehensive income and the P/E is 10x What is "comprehensive income"?

Also, do you know what their debt/gearing level is (if any)?

Thanks in advance

TheBossMan
19-12-2005, 03:54 PM
Comprehensive income = operating income + income obtained from any dirty surplus. In Ryman's case, they do not report their gains from property revaluations in the income statement. If you look at their shareholder equity statement, you'd notice a gain of $20-odd million by way of annual revaluation. This income should also be taken into consideration for valuation purposes. Other companies use the equity statements to hide losses or reduction in shareholder value(e.g., through share/options issues for employees).

Soon, Ryman and other firms would be required to disclose such income streams in the regular p/l statements. That'd only boost the share price!

Debt/Equity ratio is a modest .21, Debt/Total assets is .24, EPS 23.5. They have only $50 million in long-term debt as compared to net operating assets of $235 million. This is pittance compared to the amount they spend every year in development. As I stated, it is only possible because of their operating liability leverage (interest-free occupancy loans from residents).

See how the SP is resilient. Though it tested $5 recently, it has come back to $5.40 levels. Continue accumulating and dont forget to send me a christmas card next year.

Placebo
19-12-2005, 03:56 PM
Cheers Boss. Thought that was the case re property valuations. Have to say, that was a nice surprise to spot in their Annual Report.

"Dirty Surplus", I like that :D:D

KJ
21-12-2005, 10:41 AM
Some good info here-I note that the coy does not pay tax which must have implications down the track a bit.
Is this due to timing issues with say depn as they develop villages or are there other reasons? Are profits on the resale of occupation licences taxable?

TheBossMan
21-12-2005, 10:59 AM
Taxation is not an issue now. Income from new sales and re-sales are deemed as loans/re-payment of loans, less deductions. The current government has not signalled any intent to review this policy. So, I expect that the industry is protected in this area for sometime.
With the continuing demand for retirement villages, I can also see Ryman and other industry participants pass on any such costs to its residents (or change its revenue model to get around the taxation).

COLIN
21-12-2005, 11:53 AM
Any comments on the action of the founders in dumping 5 million shares at $5? Presumably they see this as a good time to do a bit of profit taking - which I recently did at $5.40. However, I have no doubt as to the longer-term merits of this share and I will be looking to buy in again, sometime, at somewhere nearer $4.50. It has had a good run for the time being.

Snow Leopard
21-12-2005, 12:37 PM
Each to his own and all that but I would be surprised if it goes much below $5.00 again

KJ
21-12-2005, 01:09 PM
I bought a few today and would be surprised if it falls below $5-I hope it does as I would like to buy a lot more.

Placebo
21-12-2005, 02:19 PM
Colin I think you may be waiting a while at that $4.50 figure. Did you mean $5.50? ;)

dirty
21-12-2005, 04:20 PM
hope they go under $5 my self will be in boots and all trying to pick a good time to buy still wonder why the founders sold down what long term does this mean? happy xmas will be watching these in 06

TheBossMan
21-12-2005, 11:14 PM
Kevin Hickman still has 10m shares, so if he doesnt have the confidence in the firm, why would he leave $50 million of his money?

My guess is, he wants to fund some of his new investments that Ryman as a firm cannot get into.

rmbbrave
22-12-2005, 11:53 AM
Ryman CEO Hickman sells down
22 December 2005

Chief executive of pensioner home operator Ryman Healthcare Kevin Hickman sold his stake in the company down from 15 per cent to 10 per cent yesterday.


The 5 million shares were sold to institutions at $5.00, a 20c discount to yesterday and today's closing price.

UBS broker Richard Leggat said it was usually a bad sign when management sold shares. "But he still has a lot of skin in the game which is a comfort," he added.

Chairman David Kerr said that if the company was going backward it might be seen as a negative, "but that's not a description you could apply to Ryman".

He said Mr Hickman's family was heavily exposed to one company and it was sensible to spread his investments.

Ryman has been one of the best stocks in the top 50 index this year, rising from $3.65 at the start of the year. At the start of 2004 it was priced at $2.23.

TheBossMan
09-03-2006, 09:19 AM
$5.68 and not a single seller!! My target of $8.50 in 2 years is looking increasingly achievable. Please see previous page for complete analysis.

Snow Leopard
09-03-2006, 09:36 AM
MET appears to be fresh out of sellers also.

Placebo
09-03-2006, 10:25 AM
Mrrrmble! Urrmmmblll! Rrrmmmmmphhh!!

k1w1
09-03-2006, 10:30 AM
Placebo, once again I am impressed with the quality of the analysis presented on our site.

Brrmmmmmmmmm !

Snow Leopard
09-03-2006, 10:32 AM
quote:Originally posted by k1w1

Placebo, once again I am impressed with the quality of the analysis presented on our site.

Brrmmmmmmmmm !

see WAM thread for details ;)

TheBossMan
24-03-2006, 11:50 AM
went past $6 today. 20% gain in 3 months or so. If you have some, hold on as I can see my valuation of $8.50 to be met earlier than i thought.

TheBossMan
27-03-2006, 03:08 PM
$6.25 and still looking strong....

Placebo
27-03-2006, 03:11 PM
Grrrmphff! Rrrtfh ampffff hurrfffff!!

TheBossMan
27-03-2006, 04:00 PM
??

Halebop
27-03-2006, 04:01 PM
quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Grrrmphff! Rrrtfh ampffff hurrfffff!!

TheBossMan
27-03-2006, 04:14 PM
Placebo,
How can it be a ramp when I've already disclosed that I own shares in Ryman and provided a comprehensive analysis to support a $8.50 valuation in 2 years' time? When the SP trends up, my postings here are merely reinforcing the attractiveness of the stock. So anyone looking for a "boring" stock with 20% upside from hereon can read my analysis and if it is sound, go ahead and make some money yourself. The SP has been going up from $5 since X-mas and my ramping has nothing to do with it.

Are you capable of proving my analysis is wrong? Otherwise, I think it is a case of sour grapes.

k1w1
27-03-2006, 05:00 PM
TB,
He's not accusing you of ramping as I understand it from another thread, but Placebo is not allowed to say anything about a SP or it goes down...so when he sees one going up he just makes grunting noises so as not to send it spiralling back down

Snow Leopard
28-03-2006, 06:42 AM
Fascinating last few posts, from which we can learn that.

Careful technical analysis can extract meaning from data where none (probably) exists. ;)
Some people can be a bit touchy, especially when they are r***ing. ;);)
But other people are paying attention. [^]

regards
Paper Tiger :D

TheBossMan
28-03-2006, 07:41 AM
technical analysis?!! lol. That suggests you don't understand the meaning of valuation based on a residual earnings model, which is intrinsic to fundamental analysis.

Snow Leopard
28-03-2006, 08:18 AM
Told you he was touchy :)

r
PT :D

Placebo
28-03-2006, 08:56 AM
[:0]

:D

[xx(]

TheBossMan
28-03-2006, 08:56 AM
Seems like you have nothing to add to a healthy discussion on a company's prospects and the underlying security valuation. You'd rather keep focussing on people and their intentions (as perceived by you). I stand by my valuation and when it touches $8 soon, I'm sure you'd remember all the "ramping".

And where is your disclosure in all these? Are you someone who was sitting on the fence thinking Ryman's SP would go down so that you can buy? Or did you sell too early and regretting it now? Maybe you never understood Ryman's business model and growth drivers and instead chose to waste time picking on other posters who dared to contribute.

I challenge you to prove my analysis is wrong. Are you good enough to do it?

TheBossMan
28-03-2006, 09:03 AM
$6.40 now...not bad for a stock on NZX which was only $5 pre-Xmas.

Snow Leopard
28-03-2006, 09:53 AM
TheBoss, I have overcome a Tigers natural instinct of continuing to play with his prey.
Thank you for your analysis of this company over the last few pages, it is appreciated and I have little quarrel with it.
I regard Ryman as an excellent company with good forward prospects and it is the second biggest holding in my long-term portfolio, Mainfreight being the largest.

Now please relax and enjoy the forum

regards
Paper Tiger

Disc: I am being incredibly nice here.

Placebo
28-03-2006, 10:06 AM
Boss: Please take a chill pill. As PT has explained my position on RYM and the effect my comments have on the share price preclude me commenting. However, I have read your analysis and though a little optimistic I too see this as a long-term growth stock.

Nobody is attacking you, it is all a bit of fun. Try to relax. Go home and kick the cat.

Note to the gods of share price movement: O wise ones please accept that this comment, though on the RYM thread, is not a comment on RYM and is merely to smooth the ruffled feathers of the Boss, who is clearly not a ramper ;). And anyway, as we all know, the reasons prices go up and down have nothing to do with what we think or fundamentals of a company. They are a product of complex factors best explained via Chaos Theory.

Snow Leopard
28-03-2006, 10:19 AM
quote:originally posted by Placebo
Go home and kick the cat

If he does, no more Mr Nice Guy :(

Placebo
29-03-2006, 01:56 PM
At the risk of driving down the share price ;) I make the following observation.

Forsyth Barr has revised its valuation upward, after reviewing its assumption on average unit sales per annum. As attached:


quote:Key Points

We have increased our long-term assumption of annual New Sales from 200 units to 250 units.

This change in assumption has a significant impact upon our RYM valuation as New Sales are a key driver of management fees and resales.

Our revised valuation is $6.60 and in view of the valuation gap and robust nature of the RYM business model, we have maintained our BUY recommendation


So not quite as bullish as The Boss, but bullish nonetheless

:):)

TheBossMan
29-03-2006, 02:28 PM
quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Forsyth Barr has revised its valuation upward, after reviewing its assumption on average unit sales per annum. As attached:


quote:Key Points

We have increased our long-term assumption of annual New Sales from 200 units to 250 units.

This change in assumption has a significant impact upon our RYM valuation as New Sales are a key driver of management fees and resales.

Our revised valuation is $6.60 and in view of the valuation gap and robust nature of the RYM business model, we have maintained our BUY recommendation


So not quite as bullish as The Boss, but bullish nonetheless

:):)

My valuation also assumed new sales of 250 units, which is not overly optimistic, considering Ryman's record, market demands, land bank, pace of development, availability of funds, and most importantly in-house architects and construction engineers.

Forsyth Barr is projecting $6.60 over what horizon? My valuation of $8.30 was for a five-year projection, and on very realistic figures. My gut feel is it is a $10 company, but I dont have any numbers to back it up. Assuming a negative growth in NZ property sector, I expect a dip in the share price next year, when the properties are re-valued.

Placebo
29-03-2006, 02:34 PM
Up 5c today... is the jinx broken [^]

Boss: Forbarr's valuations apply to the here-and-now, I don't know of brokerages that say "we believe in 5 years time this stock will cost X dollars". Would be a brave call IMO.

The market seems to agree with the 660 figure

Lizard
30-03-2006, 08:11 AM
Hi Boss. I like your analysis, which is similar to what I did on MET when I bought in from $1.40 - $2.20. The reason I chose MET over RYM is that they provided more detailed historical information, which enabled me to model the likely amounts of amenities contribution and resales gains to be booked to profit each year. In addition, I thought their capital gains would be better, being centred more around the North Island and especially Auckland - historically better performers for capital gain. Of course, although a good performer, it hasn't actually performed as well as RYM. I think this has largely been the better pace of development at RYM, and, possibly better margins on development.

Like you, I have made my valuation based on the increase in shareholders equity rather than the reported profit, benefiting from the fact that analysts have been slow to make the switch from valuing based on bottom-line profit - a figure which really represents ancient history for these companies.

TheBossMan
30-03-2006, 09:17 AM
Very nice Lizard, you're spot on. I liked MET too and if I recall their RNOA was better than Ryman for most of 2003-5.

One of the less known secrets about Ryman is to choose undervalued sites and in some cases poorly managed sections, although situated strategically close to the city centres. They have stayed away from developing in remote areas, as the residents' children may not like to travel far to visit them with the grandkids.

As a matter of disclosure, I've now sold all of my Ryman's shares. This has been purely because of my cashflow problems and that I need the money to buy a property and also to invest in Indian firms, where I'm likely to get better returns in the medium-term. I realise I've sold too early when there is still a couple of bucks left, but a variety of circumstances forced me to sell them.

However, I'll follow this stock closely and contribute to this thread, as this is the first company for which I've done a comprehensive valuation and even if the SP reaches $8, I'd be happy with my efforts. Best of luck for those fortunate to be still holding and remember to send me the christmas card.

Disc: None held

Placebo
30-03-2006, 09:21 AM
Very nice Boss, and you'll be pleased to know that, once WAM winds up as it looks it will do, I will be happy to park at least part of my windfall in RYM.

TheBossMan
30-03-2006, 09:57 AM
good idea Placebo. $6.60 as a result of F.Barr's recommendation.

minimoke
06-04-2006, 02:34 PM
Looks like the competition could be heating up: "... Giant Australian-owned retirement village specialists have bought $256.1 million of assets in New Zealand, taking control of two of the largest privately owned aged-care chains...."

Article link is http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10376239

TheBossMan
06-04-2006, 03:33 PM
yep, it is a good industry to be in and hence the interest. Ryman and METlife are way ahead in the game.

TheBossMan
07-04-2006, 10:24 AM
Ryman to build a $50m retirement village in New Plymouth.

Very likely they would have paid a huge price to acquire the land, but it should not affect the valuation in the long run.
-------------------------------
Listed retirement village operator, Ryman Healthcare, today announced they
have purchased a 7.89 hectare site in New Plymouth for their 19th retirement
village.

The sunny, North facing site on Barrett Road will, once fully developed,
provide homes for more than 220 residents and employ at least 50 staff.

"We are delighted to secure such an outstanding site, which offers views to
the sea on one side, and a magnificent framing of Mt Taranaki on the other"
Ryman Development Manager, Ray Versey, said today.

The land is sufficient to develop a fully integrated retirement village of up
to 72 townhouses, 50 serviced apartments, a village centre and up to an 80
bed care centre.

The village centre will feature full dining facilities, an indoor heated
swimming pool, library, internet cafe, gymnasium, beauty salon and an all
weather bowling green.

"The development is still in the concept stages but we hope to lodge for
resource consent in the next few months," Mr Versey said.

Ryman, one of New Zealand's most experienced retirement village providers, is
a five time winner of the Australasian Aged Care Housing Award for the Best
Retirement Village in New Zealand.

Ryman Healthcare this week opened the Jane Winstone Retirement Village on the
famous old Sacred Heart College site in St John's Hill, Wanganui. The
company recently acquired land for new villages in Palmerston North and
Nelson.

Ryman is currently building in Auckland, Napier, Wanganui, Lower Hutt,
Wellington and Invercargill.

The company provides homes and care services to more than 2700 New
Zealanders, employing more than 1400 staff.
----------------------------

Snow Leopard
10-04-2006, 02:00 PM
At the risk of having TheBoss telling us how he told us so or, even worse, Placebo mumbling:

Up 40c to $7.00.

I dare say the reason will become apparent in due course ;)

TheBossMan
10-04-2006, 03:11 PM
Well, it is partly due to the good press in the weekend Dominion. Also, people could be trying to put their money in "defensive" stocks.

Lifestyle villages are trending up, especially when retired people from US/UK see NZ as an attractive location to spend the rest of their lives. Demand for units in places like Nelson and warmer regions is set to continue.

good on you for those holding on...

disc: hold none

Placebo
10-04-2006, 04:10 PM
No worries PT, I think it is safe to return to my former ways (whatever those were :)).

Just come back from a day trip to Hawke's Bay, lovely big Sommerfields rest home going up with its own hospital to boot. Yes resthomes are the way of the future and RYM is poised to continue as a market leader

Not mumbling but shouting
Placebo :D

TheBossMan
23-05-2006, 06:17 PM
NPAT of $35million and 49% increase from last year!!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10383134

Snow Leopard
24-05-2006, 05:32 PM
and don't the crowd just love it? up 4% to $7.65.
After the half year surely this result is not a surprise?

Anyway what is now important is what does the next few years hold?

Placebo
25-05-2006, 08:54 AM
Well, in short; more buildings, more oldies, more earnings. Predictions of a slowdown in profit growth in 07 then a return to higher growth in 08. This is a company with a history of overperforming its forecasts, so you could regard these as conservative.

Happy to disclose that I am in love with Ryman. Imagine this scenario: You own a slice of land, and build a house on it. A person comes along and offers to buy the house off you, but agrees that you keep ownership of the land (and bank any capital gain on it). They also agree to pay you a fee for living on the land in the house they own. AND they sign up to an agreement to sell the house back to you at an agreed rate, which will probably be considerably below the capital gain (and the price at which you will onsell it to a new owner).

That is Ryman's business model. This company is going gangbusters, no debt, a busy building programme, organic growth and constant revenue streams from existing assets. 49% growth in profit -- go you good thing :D:D:D

One cloud on the horizon; there are a number of large scale retirement village and resthome operators, all building away like mad. There must come a point when the market reaches saturation. Then you have to think beyond organic growth to maintain your growth trajectory.

Come year-end I'd like to see the figures for unit turnover; this is crucial to their revenue stream long-term.

TheBossMan
25-05-2006, 09:52 AM
sure, there'll be further consolidation in the industry in the next few years. (currently seen in australia). But, growth? years 2010-2015 would see thousands of kiwis going out of their family homes, and not to mention the professionals returning from overseas.

I wont be surprised if Ryman gets taken over for $11 per share or so within the next year or so. In the interim, I'm happy to see the SP inching towards my valuation of $8.

Placebo
30-05-2006, 08:17 AM
The Boss may not agree but with a strong run up since its result RYM must now be getting to the point where it's fully valued.

Glad I got on board this one already :D

TheBossMan
30-05-2006, 10:05 AM
well, well..there's always a start and I agree that it is close to being fully valued. However, my estimates were very conservative and I suggested $8.25, from memory. I havent analysed the latest results to see their profitability levels, but this one has still some way to go, methinks. See the continued optimism of 15% annual growth.

Snow Leopard
30-05-2006, 11:08 AM
I think it is overvalued. $7.24 would be the right value at the moment heading towards $8.00 at the end of the year.
But I have no intention of selling a single share. Long term the trend is UP.

Placebo
30-05-2006, 11:18 AM
Forsooth Bore says:


quote:Ryman Healthcare ACCUMULATE
Report: FY06 Result Review John Cairns
#56256;#56510; RYM reported an impressive FY06 operating profit (EBITDA) of
$38.2m, a 39.9% increase on FY05 and broadly in line with our
expectations.
#56256;#56510; We have upgraded our FY07 and FY08 operating profit forecasts by
5.5% and 5.9% to $47.2m and $53.3m respectively due largely to
increases in our underlying average Resales assumptions.
#56256;#56510; We have adopted RYM's longer-term New Sales target of 300 units
pa increasing our valuation to $7.56. Due to the small valuation
gap, we have reduced our recommendation from BUY to
ACCUMULATE.

So good news all round, and the recommendation is downgraded (because of the closing of the valuation gap). Make sense?

Snow Leopard
06-06-2006, 01:39 PM
RYM needs sellers now:
Price stuck at a mere $8.05, how high can it go?

Disc: Still not selling [8D]

Flying Goat
06-06-2006, 05:30 PM
quote:Originally posted by KW

$10.05 according to the keen seller :-)


My guess is that its popular now due to defensive qualities, as the markets appear to be getting nervous the last day or two... + the div

Disc: i ain't selling either, longterm you won't lose on RYM

Placebo
07-06-2006, 03:44 PM
I refrain from commenting :D. Although I am probably part of the problem, as I ain't sellin either...

Snow Leopard
07-06-2006, 04:07 PM
quote:Originally posted by Placebo

I refrain from commenting :D. Although I am probably part of the problem, as I ain't sellin either...

PLACEBO!!!!

How about refrain from posting? [V]

Snow Leopard
14-06-2006, 09:01 PM
So we get to be part of the top 15 now.
That should be the kiss of death for it's meteoric rise. :(

Flying Goat
14-06-2006, 09:04 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

So we get to be part of the top 15 now.
That should be the kiss of death for it's meteoric rise. :(


Why?

Snow Leopard
15-06-2006, 08:42 AM
quote:Originally posted by Flying Goat


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

So we get to be part of the top 15 now.
That should be the kiss of death for it's meteoric rise. :(


Why?

at $8.20 it is trading at nearly 20 times next years forecast earnings and the current rate of increase would continue to stretch that, so I see a pause as inevitable. Tying it to the NZX15 announcement is merely fortune-telling.

Of course moving to the NZX15 is actually likely to provide a temporary boost.

regards

Paper Tiger

PS I might give yogi-in-oz's <s>astroturfing</s> astro-trading a go next. ;)

Flying Goat
15-06-2006, 11:40 AM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by Flying Goat


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

So we get to be part of the top 15 now.
That should be the kiss of death for it's meteoric rise. :(


Why?

at $8.20 it is trading at nearly 20 times next years forecast earnings and the current rate of increase would continue to stretch that, so I see a pause as inevitable. Tying it to the NZX15 announcement is merely fortune-telling.

Of course moving to the NZX15 is actually likely to provide a temporary boost.

regards

Paper Tiger

PS I might give yogi-in-oz's <s>astroturfing</s> astro-trading a go next. ;)


Hmmm. I see your point, but on the upside one might expect buy pressure from institution types making sure their portfolios are balanced to the index... e.g. large transaction went through today valued at around 3.7 million, seller must have negotiated $8.30 as I think that's what it went through at...

Cheers

FG

Placebo
15-06-2006, 12:54 PM
Institutions do indeed align portfolios with indexes, so expect to see this occur.

Oops!;)

zac
15-06-2006, 01:08 PM
450,000 went thru at $8.30 (mine included) at 12.05pm. Now up to $8.35 (few sellers).

Snow Leopard
15-06-2006, 01:31 PM
Actually, is anyone aware of any funds that track the 15? I presume there are some.
I know of funds that track the 10, which is unaffected. Funds that track the 50 who will be EBO buyers.
But MidCap funds will need to sell their RYM holdings.

Flying Goat
16-06-2006, 08:10 PM
quote:Originally posted by ratkin

Have quietly been building a holding over the last few years and am suprised doing an archive search that this one hardly recieves any mentions.
Seems one of the best and safest long term holds on the NZSE cant think of any better really.

Seems to me that the more risky and hopeless it is the more people here want to talk about it, one only has to think back to aquaria 21 and ITC to see that to be the case.

I have been avoiding these forums over the past year or so because i found they were leading me to make more purchases / sales than was often prudent.
In the age of the internet patience and quietly building a big innings (like thorpe !! ) seems to be out of fashion now, instead has been replaced by a slogging mentality where the object is to hit a six into blue sky (like mcmillan), And we all know hes often out for a duck.


Well said Ratkin, and considering that you made this post (above) over two years ago is seems the approach of quietly building a big innings has paid handsomely... probably around 250% at recent prices...!

cookiemannz
10-07-2006, 02:14 PM
Ryman at $9.05. Up $0.25 today

I bought at $7.80. Stoked.

Any reason for the big surge up to $9.05 all of a sudden?

Placebo
10-07-2006, 02:30 PM
Share split coming at AGM.

You read it here first :D

Where is TheBoss?;)

TheBossMan
10-07-2006, 02:59 PM
very much here and delighted for you shareholders. It is a $10 stock after all...

Snow Leopard
13-07-2006, 07:39 PM
I am amazed at the price this is currently trading for, and am only mildly annoyed that it is defying my prediction of ending it's uptrend.

Disc: :)

rmbbrave
17-07-2006, 10:25 AM
Cashed-up investors buy into healthcare
17 July 2006

By TERRY HALL
Widely disparaged for years, there has been a dramatic turnaround in the fortunes of many companies in the healthcare sector as cashed-up investors look for stocks that have the potential to grow and perform strongly in the years ahead.


Shares in three of these companies rest home proprietors Ryman and Metlifecare and private hospital group Wakefield were trading at all-time highs last week. They are among stocks that are direct beneficiaries of investors looking to reinvest cash after the takeover of Waste Management and the $500 million early redemption of Fonterra capital notes.

Interest in the sector has been heightened by forecasts that show the number of people over 85 will double by 2021. Many will be wealthy enough to pay for quality rest home care; the Government will have to pay for the others. There is also increasing demand for private hospital services, with many people having medical insurance and others not prepared to wait for public hospital care.

The rising number of baby boomers and others with health problems are also drawing attention to companies such as Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, which produces innovative products that are in demand worldwide.

The interest in retirement homes and hospitals has been spurred by takeover activity and ongoing rationalisation, much of it originating from Australian groups who have been buying privately owned chains.

Sydney-based Macquarie remains locked in a protracted takeover battle for Metlifecare, which owns 10 per cent of New Zealand's retirement homes. While most shareholders accepted its $3.90 offer, Fisher Funds (with 11.69 per cent) and the New Zealand Super Fund (5 per cent) refused, saying it undervalued the group. Macquarie is stuck on 81.96 per cent. With Metlifecare trading at $6.05 on Wednesday, many who accepted the Macquarie offer will be wishing they hadn't.

With Metlifecare effectively off the radar, rival Ryman Healthcare is going from strength to strength. Its shares reached $9.15 on Thursday, a 76 per cent rise this year, though they were down at $8.95 on Friday.

Ryman is expanding rapidly. It has 2488 units with a further 674 units and 244 beds under construction. A further 544 units and 302 beds are in the planning stage, and it has land for more than 1600 units. This growth is being funded out of cashflow.

Wellington brokers Waddell Johnston McCarthy forecast revenue will rise from the $142.3 million in the year to March, to $324.9 million by March 2012, with the dividend per share rising from 17 cents to 43.9c.

Wakefield Health has put its shaky start in 2001 behind it. Many shareholders protested loudly when its share price fell from the issue price of $2.50 to as low as $1.15 after Wakefield unexpectedly lost a state contract. Hopefully many of the shareholders decided to hold on, or cleverly bought more at low prices, with the shares trading at $7.15 on Friday.

Further takeovers are expected, possibly due to Sir Selwyn Cushing, who has built an influential 7.2 per cent stake, becoming the third biggest shareholder. It is suspected he was influential in the decision for Wakefield to link with Royston Hospital in Hawke's Bay, now its second biggest shareholder with 19.7 per cent. As a result, Hawke's Bay interests dominate the register with a combined 26.9 per cent.

Waddell Johnston McCarthy forecast group revenues would rise from $51.3 million this year to $96.4 million in 2012, and that dividends would double from 14c to 28c a share during those years. They value its shares at $7.60.

AdvertisementAdvertisementThe zing has totally gone for shareholders in Calan Healthcare Property Trust, which was set up to own hospitals and related facilities and lease them to medical people. Calan's share price has gone nowhere after hopes of a takeover at up to $1.55 according to an independent valuation were dashed by some slick footwork. To almost universal surprise, property group ING, which had offered $1.21 a share,

trendman
03-08-2006, 10:14 AM
whats happening with this stock? drop $0.75 in 4 weeks. Has anyone got any ideas :(

KJ
03-08-2006, 11:07 AM
Weak market-like many other good stocks that have had a big run.Heaps have come back 10% or so.

bushbasher
03-08-2006, 11:12 AM
Frankly I've been waiting for a decent bit of profit taking on this stock. As a holder I've been suffering a bit of altitude sickness recently and am glad they have pulled back from the summit for more oxygen.

KJ
03-08-2006, 12:08 PM
It's their AGM tomorrow-could fire thinks up again if they have a good outlook.

wsheridan
03-08-2006, 12:54 PM
quote:Originally posted by trendman

whats happening with this stock? drop $0.75 in 4 weeks. Has anyone got any ideas :(


Could also be due to a few hiccups with some planning permissions.

rmbbrave
05-08-2006, 10:44 AM
Kevin Hickman's retirement might be to blame - or perhaps RYM is just overpriced.

New Ryman boss makes step up
05 August 2006
By ALAN WOOD

Ryman Healthcare co-founder Kevin Hickman has anointed Simon Challies Ea youthful but principal member of the health provider's management team Eas his successor.


The leadership change comes with Ryman "trading in line with (its) target of 15 per cent growth for the current year", chairman David Kerr told yesterday's annual meeting in Christchurch.

With Ryman in the NZX top 15 of listed companies the stage was set for the management revitalisation, Mr Hickman said.

"The young guys are doing a great job. They've built up ready to take over and if you hang around, you go past the point."

Mr Hickman has been with the company 24 years. "My belief (is) that Ryman has arrived at a new level of maturity whereby it has a life of its own. . . and heading towards a market capitalisation of $1 billion," he said.

". . .The senior management and tactics team Eyou can believe me when I say I wouldn't be going if I didn't trust them totally to run the company. They've earned their stripes, it's time for me to go and I'm going to play a bit of golf and do a few other things for a while."

No dissent was uttered over the company's direction during a presentation focused on updating the management and keeping Ryman sticking to its "knitting".

The Christchurch retirement village specialist has increased its capitalisation to $856 million.

Shares have climbed from their 1999 issue price of $1.35 to close yesterday at $8.56, down 5 cents on the day and also down from a 12-month high of $9.21.

Mr Challies has held the position of general manager for a couple of years, and has been chief financial officer since 1999.

"The healthy share price experienced by the company is in no small way a tribute to the relationships Simon has forged with the financial establishment," Mr Hickman said.

The high-level handover also means the end of an era.

Mr Hickman's one-time business partner, John Ryder, stood down from his role as joint managing director in 2002.

The pair began in 1984 by converting 14 ownership flats in Richmond into a rest home.

Ryman now employs 1400 staff and provides services to more than 2800 residents in retirement homes.

Mr Hickman said the fiscal year to March 31, 2007, would be one of consolidation as Ryman's village construction work "battles to get ahead of sales".

Resort consents were being processed for Palmerston North, New Plymouth and Dunedin, with Nelson to follow.

"(But) Ryman is well positioned to continue to achieve its target of 15 per cent compounded growth in the coming year, with the possibility of exceeding this target again in the future."

Mr Challies said no change in direction would occur under him from the successful strategy of the past six or seven years. "The plan has always been for the last couple of years to increase the rate of growth."

The search would be on now for a replacement chief financial officer

Placebo
07-08-2006, 08:57 AM
Even though it's a new man in the top seat it seems it will be business as usual.

Wonder what Hickman will do with all his dosh...? Buy a MET retirement unit and disappear into obscurity? :D:D

Mothman
05-10-2006, 07:43 PM
RYM overvalued at 8.85?

Maybe its just my sour grapes for selling out at $2.45[:0]

Great growth story, but can they find enough land to develop and build more villages to house the grey wave?

Resource consenting costs must be adding to the cost line...

But then I know a guy who says $10 a share by early next year, I wonder if the private equity sharks are circling yet;)

Bobby
05-10-2006, 11:14 PM
They have quite a substanmtial land bank and low gearing so I have no concerns as to future projects - they have run themselves very conservatively in this respect.
I have often wondered whether they would do a share split when they got close to the $10 mark

Snow Leopard
16-11-2006, 04:39 PM
15% rise in half year profit :)
9c dividend, up 1c on last year :)
5:1 share split early next year :)
and the SP up 80c to $9.80c :)

Disc: :):):):)

Rif-Raf
16-11-2006, 05:04 PM
15% is what we have come to expect, however the comments about the large volume of projects coming onstream was the best news. The good story is going to continue for a long time methinks

Flying Goat
16-11-2006, 06:15 PM
quote:Originally posted by Rif-Raf

15% is what we have come to expect, however the comments about the large volume of projects coming onstream was the best news. The good story is going to continue for a long time methinks


Indeed Rif, a pleasant result and what we have come to expect from them, underlying cashflow also impressive. Testament to a great business model, this is one of those shares you buy and hold, and don't ever think about selling, well for me that is anyway... :D infact my "exit strategy" for Ryman is to sell my holding in thirty years & use the proceeds to buy a unit in one of their villages :) at this rate that might become a reality!

FG

COLIN
16-11-2006, 09:30 PM
Good for KFL too - RYM constitutes about 20% of their portfolio.

rmbbrave
16-11-2006, 10:03 PM
I'm a happy holder too.

rmbbrave
16-11-2006, 10:06 PM
quote:Originally posted by COLIN

Good for KFL too - RYM constitutes about 20% of their portfolio.


That's why I bought KFL.

And because MFT which hit $7 today is 17%.

TheBossMan
17-11-2006, 06:11 AM
Ryman is now worth approx. 9.50.

A stock split would take it to $2 post-split. Enjoy the ride for the next 2 years or so. Only when the land bank dwindles, shareholders have some concern. See how the management is still focussed on organic growth and not worrying about venturing into Australia or do anything else silly.

Who is behind Emerald and why have they started selling down slowly?

Rif-Raf
17-11-2006, 09:02 AM
quote:Originally posted by TheBoss


Who is behind Emerald and why have they started selling down slowly?

When Emerald sold some a while back they said it was because RYM had been such a good investment it now accounted for too big a weighting in their portfolio. Success can be a headache I guess.

Lawso
17-11-2006, 10:01 AM
In late 2004, Brian Gaynor, speaking to a meeting of the Shareholders Ass'n in Auckland, put RYM at the head of his list of five top stock tips for the coming year. The price then was probably around $3.

I for one didn't take his advice, mainly because
the div yield was so low. And when I've occasionally considered RYM since then they've seemed to be fully priced.[B)]

WSLS L&L
(win some, lose some) (live & learn)

Placebo
17-11-2006, 10:49 AM
Ryman is also debt-free, its expansion funded from cashflow with most developments self-funding.

If they wanted to raise debt to fund expansion they could, but not on their radar as yet -- a weapon they have up their sleeve.

The thing about `land banks' is you can make deposits as well as withdrawals :)

Flying Goat
18-11-2006, 08:24 AM
quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Ryman is also debt-free, its expansion funded from cashflow with most developments self-funding.

If they wanted to raise debt to fund expansion they could, but not on their radar as yet -- a weapon they have up their sleeve.

The thing about `land banks' is you can make deposits as well as withdrawals :)


Yeah, exactly. Also, based on the headline figures released this weak my interpretation is that actual cash flow was significantly higher than NPAT, due probably to booking depreciations on chattels etc of most of the units, this is a very tax efficient business model. Don't see any reason their success should be limited to the next two years, this is still a long term hold in my opinion especially if you look at the demographic projections for this country, and the structure of the business and its income streams. As it grows it throws off more cash from which it can keep growing... also benefits of scale are already showing improved margins... then there is the fact that property cycles and values will continue to boost part of their earnings, and there are yet to realise mcu of the gains from units that were built before the property latest boom... go Ryman i say...!

FG

KJ
18-11-2006, 09:01 AM
Not paying tax helps-anyone with a full understanding of the tax issues in the years ahead?

COLIN
18-11-2006, 09:33 AM
Is Govt likely to come in with heavy-handed regulations, e.g. the "windfall" gains these companies make when residents pass away?

StainlessSteelRat
29-12-2006, 10:17 AM
quote:Originally posted by Lawso

In late 2004, Brian Gaynor, speaking to a meeting of the Shareholders Ass'n in Auckland, put RYM at the head of his list of five top stock tips for the coming year. The price then was probably around $3.

I for one didn't take his advice, mainly because
the div yield was so low.

I had a buy order in when Access went belly-up. Unfortunately by the time i got my money back, i didn't have another account to buy them with so i missed out. The missus is still kicking me for it. ;)

rmbbrave
29-01-2007, 07:03 PM
I didn't even know a share split was happening!

I still can't find any announcements about it either.

Only this...

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=24211&SearchTerms=ryman

Can anyone tell me how to recalculate my holding?

TheBossMan
29-01-2007, 07:15 PM
It is a 5:1 share split, so divide your existing holding by 5

Footsie
29-01-2007, 07:49 PM
This stock is overvalued and will likely face a big correction if we have a bear market

TheBossMan
29-01-2007, 07:56 PM
Hi Footsie

Could you please expand on this statement? what do you feel is the correct value?

cheers

Beatnik
29-01-2007, 10:09 PM
quote:Originally posted by TheBoss

It is a 5:1 share split, so divide your existing holding by 5



Dont you actually mean multiply your holding by 5.

The split was anounced in RYM's 1/2 yr report in November, however you had to look hard, and it wasnt too obvious.

I too agree that this one will be one to hold because they are in a good growth industry at the moment, and it has a focus on growth which people like. As our population ages, then these companies will prosper

TheBossMan
30-01-2007, 07:13 AM
oop.s yes, multiply by 5

Placebo
30-01-2007, 07:37 AM
Maths not your strong suit, eh Boss? ;)

yes I too would like to know more about what Footsie has said. So easy to post a contrarian statement. RYM's value has held up consistently in the past year, on good fundamentals too.

And let's face it, in a bear market, everyone's value will be "corrected" [V]

Steve
30-01-2007, 03:27 PM
I'm still kicking myself for not getting in at opening monday week ago :(

Footsie
30-01-2007, 09:41 PM
I just think its run too hard too fast

and is due a reasonable pull back , which will occur when the NZ market corrects in the not too distant future....

potentially it could fall to say an FY08 p/e of 15x........ on EPS of 10.8c ( ABN's forecast )
implying a price of 162 !!! ouch
based on pure fundamentals alone......

but in the short term id expect it to hold $2

Look in 2006 this stock rose over 100%........ for a big cap......thats almost unheard of....
some price correction is healthy

In a bear market i'd buy RYM....
but there is no way id pay these prices........ same applies to PPL
great coy's but too pricey

in 2007 there are better opportunities to park your $$

i'm following a stock in Aussie RLA...... its price has been hammered and i'm backing up the truck to load up like CHA at 10c
its 25c now... sure it might go lower, but it will have explosive earnings growth in 12 months and thats what im waiting for
Just like...................... PPL 3 years ago................. RYM 2 years ago............... ABA currently

Placebo
31-01-2007, 08:46 AM
Cheers Footsie, some good observations. You may well be proved right. There is a difficulty for the market in pricing growth companies like RYM and PPL. Sometimes what looks expensive can be borne out by their growth in earnings (though as they get bigger, such rapid growth becomes more difficult to sustain). If there is to be any downward movement on fundies, it will probably occur around the next reporting round (should it disappoint the market in any way).

Rif-Raf
31-01-2007, 11:57 AM
Interesting points.

One of my worst decisions in recent times was acting on a brokers sell report that suggested the price of PPL had got ahead of the fundamentals - I sold PPL for around $2.[xx(]

The point is that good growth stocks always look expensive on fundamentals but where do you draw the line? I don't see any reason why the market would rerate RYM to only 15 unless there was some company specific bad news that emerged.

Placebo
31-01-2007, 03:23 PM
Actually the company has had some bad news recently; they got knocked back for planning consent for a rest home in Dunedin (though why anyone would retire to Dunners is beyond me ;)). It's not all beer and skittles for Ryman. Even so, the price is continuing northwards.

Its share price performance over the past 12 months has been stellar -- it will be a challenge for it to maintain that sort of momentum.

About time someone posted an updated chart... anyone??

waikare
31-01-2007, 06:50 PM
quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Actually the company has had some bad news recently; they got knocked back for planning consent for a rest home in Dunedin (though why anyone would retire to Dunners is beyond me ;)).

Excuse Me............

Placebo
01-02-2007, 03:49 PM
Careful KW. You are talking about the "Monaco of the South Seas" :D

It has a casino, you know!!

Footsie
01-02-2007, 08:28 PM
I had a look at my old 2001/2002 NZx yearbook.....

interesting to see RYM was on a p/e of about 12x

even SKC was on a p/e 16x..... now its on 22x with no growth !


RYm is running cos it looks cheap all of a sudden, they should have done a 10 for 1 split.!!

Dont forget RYM is heavily exposed to an over extended property market

Just a word of warning, again.... i think the price has gone too far
but i wont open my short until the overall market starts to fall

Phaedrus
01-02-2007, 09:47 PM
Placebo, here is a chart just for you :-

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/RYM21001.gif

I would agree with Footsie, except that technically RYM is not showing any sign of weakness at all. The chart above features 7 separate trend indicators and you can easily see that none of these are anywhere near triggering a Sell signal. See how the slow Stochastic oscillator is still high. This indicator looks at where the Close lies in relation to the days high and low and thus gives good insight into market sentiment. (Values over 50 are bullish). The OBV (not shown) continues to rise. The Trailing Stop shown here is based on 17x the Average True Range, but a simple 19% trailing stop gives much the same picture for those that do not have access to ATR based stops.
The 7 indicators shown here are quite conservative and all are well below the current price action. Nervous (or greedy) investors might want to use more sensitive indicators, but of course this exposes them to the risk of being flicked out prematurely by a little bit of market "noise". It would not be unreasonable, though, to draw a new steeper tentative trendline using the Feb and October lows of 2006.

Footsie
02-02-2007, 09:16 AM
Thats a scary chart friends

agree, dont sell yet

but get ready !!

Placebo
02-02-2007, 01:45 PM
Thanks Phaedrus, it is truly beautiful. Just one question -- what is the right hand scale (0.5 to 2)? An eejit question, sorry... [B)]

Can you also confirm that palm trees have been sighted in or near Dunedin?

Phaedrus
02-02-2007, 08:04 PM
Placebo, the scale on the right is the shareprice. The chart has been corrected for the recent share split by dividing all pre-split prices by 5.

I'm told that yes, there indeed are palm trees in Dunedin. They are rather stunted though, and difficult to recognise as such. My understanding is that Dunedin is positioning itself to take advantage of global warming.

Incidentally, inside info has it that the proposed RYM resthome there was knocked back on the basis that Dunedin already is a resthome and there was no point in further overburdening the local undertakers.

Footsie
02-02-2007, 09:43 PM
FYI

AVE.asx....... similar to Ryman .... p/e 13x ........ Ryman p.e 29x
similar growth paths

One is cheap the other is expensive,

I own neither
but if i did, i'd make the switch

Flying Goat
03-02-2007, 10:51 AM
quote:Originally posted by Footsie

FYI

AVE.asx....... similar to Ryman .... p/e 13x ........ Ryman p.e 29x
similar growth paths

One is cheap the other is expensive,

I own neither
but if i did, i'd make the switch


Actually, in opinion what Footsie is saying is dead right. Although you can find plenty of posts from me a while ago (in PPL thread) about RYM being one of the few greats on the NZX, and that cashflows were much higher than the earnings and that they have a fantastic business model for organic growth, the share price has just kept marching on.

Sure when it marched throught $7, $8, and even $9 I was happy to remain a long term holder knowing they will keep delivering due to their great track record, but when the $10, and $11 threshholds were broken and all the brokers picked the stock as best performer for 2007, that become a definite sell sign for me.

Think about what Footsie is saying, in order to be holding the same value company for your dollar as ASX.AVE, RYM would need to grow their earnings 15% year on year for five years, just to reach the same value proposition, meanwhile AVE have a similar if not steeper growth trajectory tha RYM.

Actually, think I made the mistake of "falling in love with a company" with regards to RYM, and fortunately have come to senses and sold out to take excellent profits off the table that I am currently reinvesting in growth companies trading on WAY LOWER MULTIPLES... on the ASX, as "value" and "nzx" are no longer two words I could put together in the same sentence!

Guess my point here is, and to offer something to think about: do you have a plan b when the market hits the wall? Footsie is dead right when he says that if the market hits the wall, would you want to be holding a solid growing business on ten times earnings or a solid growing business on 30 times earnings?

By the way, Footsie, thanks for the tip on AVE, been looking into it and looks very interesting.... also much more attractive from a market cap to nta perspective.

Cheers, FG

Placebo
05-02-2007, 08:51 AM
FG: Well all I can say is you must have some SERIOUS growth propositions in mind if you think they can outperform Ryman on current trajectory. Yes -- it will be hard to sustain. But at the moment it is still walking the talk -- why opt out now?

Thank you Phaedrus. It is taking me a while to get my head around Ryman not having lovely big numbers beside its charts. Have to get myself in that $2-ish head space.

Gosh that is interesting about Dunedin positioning itself for global warming. Expect they are forecasting bumper crops of papayas and breadfruit, which will be going in just as soon as that permafrost layer defrosts. ;)

Come on Dunedinites....! What do you expect when the biggest tourist boost this summer came from floating icebergs off your coast?

Cooper
05-02-2007, 09:03 AM
Mosgiel (inland from Dunedin) is becoming a retiree's paradise... slightly more moderate climate. Although for you more delicate ladies up north, even slightly more moderate would still have you reaching for ugg boots and wheat packs.

Anyway, if refrigeration keeps things fresh, surely the frigid cold here in the riviera of the south would be best for preserving the condition of our elderly? It's just that they won't actually want to be preserved if they had to live in this weather... catch-22.

Cooper
05-02-2007, 09:08 AM
You'll note that I spelt Dunedin and Mosgiel with a capital, but riviera without one. Deliberate. Deserved. How it should be.

Footsie
05-02-2007, 10:08 PM
my advice........ If you like RYM wait......... guarantee that within the next 12 months you will be able to buy it 20-30% cheaper that where it is now...

If you own RYM.......... take your profits, move on

nothing goes up forever

Do you know that Apple computer is now trading"cheaper" than RYM,,.....on a p/e growth basis...

With regard to AVE, i really like but havent bought yet as its trading above its DCF, personally with AVE i will wait for another EPS accretive acquistion or time my entry so i at least have some "val gap"
part of my success has been to limit the downside, works the same with cfds

disc: i own some apple

Placebo
07-02-2007, 09:41 AM
Article in the Dominion the other day with Ryman claiming they are on the verge of being a NZX top 10 company on market capitalisation. Still some way off making the NZX10 index (because of various criteria), but an interesting observation nonetheless.

Suggestion in the article that once it hits top-10 status then fund managers climb in to match indexes, this can lead to more buyers than sellers and rise in the price. Ah the beauty of economics 101.

I recall the company "officially" making the NZX15 a wee while back, this did lead to some strengthening in the price but from memory it was nothing particularly dramatic (the price was going northwards anyway).

Footsie
08-02-2007, 08:55 PM
Phaedrus

Please let me know when the trend breaks down in this stock

Thanks
Footsie

Bobby
09-02-2007, 12:52 AM
Dudes - I just sold out my holding at 2.45 - have held since 2004 and was in danger of falling in love with the share and ignoring the perilously climbing PE (with corresponding low div). Was happy to forfeit div for good acquisitions and growth but have been nervous about over-valuation for a while. I have no doubt this will have some upside left but with the size of my stake I wanted to be able to get it way withhout too many issues - picking the top and actually being able to take advantage of it are very different things! Will re-enter when things have cooled down a bit - still a good story with growth left there. I suspect this sentiment is shared by a few of the Sharechatters

TheBossMan
09-02-2007, 06:14 AM
every market has its darlings - I think Ryman has become one for various reasons: a) continued growth b) good management and governance c) pretty good shareholder returns. Much similar to Warehouse during its journey to $7+ few years back.

Pumpkin Patch is another market darling.

A premium must always be paid to hold such stocks.

Footsie
09-02-2007, 09:19 PM
but everything peaks.......

once the stock goes "ex " growth
or at least when growth moderates to 10%...... yawn

SKC, WHS, BCA, BRY, FLT.asx too name a few off the top of my head

TheBossMan
10-02-2007, 01:12 AM
sure...Ryman hasnt reached that state yet. It has several years to go (still a lot of ageing population. Significant demand and a long waiting list too)

KJ
10-02-2007, 08:21 AM
Agree...everything does peak but if RYM continues to grow profits by 15 to 25% pa for some years yet then the market might be saying that it deserves a higher PE.

At present it may have got a bit overheated.

Footsie
14-02-2007, 08:44 PM
anyone go and buy ave?

was 2.66 when i posted...... now 3.10 !!

cjh
14-02-2007, 09:02 PM
Yes, holder of a few AVE and a nice hike over the last 2 days.
Will not sell of remaining RYM, yet.

cjh
16-02-2007, 05:40 PM
AVE up to 3.30 today.
Looking to continue rise next week.

Flying Goat
18-02-2007, 05:18 PM
quote:Originally posted by Footsie

anyone go and buy ave?

was 2.66 when i posted...... now 3.10 !!


Yes Footsie, I went and bought AVE after it was brought to my attention by your goodself, and subsequently doing my own analysis, fortunately ignoring your comment that it was not yet a buy due to trading at a premium to discount cash flow. Transferred some of my RYM profits into AVE at 2.69 and actually Friday's closing price was $3.30 with no signs of letting up, so far already making a decent paper profit but at this price still ticks all the boxes for a long term hold imo. It would appear that there is quite a bit of fund money entering the stock at the moment, its classic case of being just the right size to have attracted big money, now the big volumes are going through and driving it higher and higher. Guess it has multiple appeal being quality, conservative and affordable exposure to healthcare, the aging demographic and the Australian property market...

FG

Footsie
19-02-2007, 08:00 PM
RYM.... back to reality...... Woah there goes gravity

I must confess AVE caught me by suprise and i wasnt able to get in before it took off.....
and i wasnt in a hurry due to its price relative to dcf

It's still on my radar tho....... and now everyone elses !

scamper
20-02-2007, 06:36 PM
And another 2% down today to 217, with the uptrend broken at about 227 -- i think Phaedrus would agree Footsie.

scamper is currently out of rym, but is interested in buying when the dust settles. And, of course, am hoping that the price settles downward a bit more as well. PE of 28 seems pretty high.

Has anyone picked a good entry/re-entry price? :)

cjh
21-02-2007, 05:33 PM
Large late trade today $2.10.
Anyone know who dumped?
-Hit my stop now.

Footsie
21-02-2007, 08:40 PM
Well done to all those who sold at 2.40

Bobby
21-02-2007, 10:23 PM
Or in my case 2.45. Feeling very smug indeed

cjh
22-02-2007, 09:02 AM
The purchaser of 25 mil shares yesterday + many more up to yesterday = Bad****+ Brown.
Building for takeover????? - any thoughts?

cjh
22-02-2007, 09:06 AM
+ Research shows they now hold 62.5 mil.

COLIN
22-02-2007, 12:43 PM
The market certainly seems to like the look of B & B's interest in RYM.

Flying Goat
22-02-2007, 09:23 PM
Must say today's developments came out of left field!?

Who would of thought this great yet expensive company might have a suitor...!?

Hmmmmm....

minimoke
23-02-2007, 08:22 AM
quote:Originally posted by Footsie

Well done to all those who sold at 2.40

With a "buy" sitting at $255 this morning I'm hanging in for the ride

KJ
23-02-2007, 08:40 AM
Just read an article with B & B suggesting that RYM properties are undervalued-should be treated like commercial properties.

Hope they are right.

TheBossMan
23-02-2007, 09:30 AM
quote:Originally posted by Flying Goat

Who would of thought this great yet expensive company might have a suitor...!?


Blowing my own trumpet......

I did think it'd happen....see
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=22697&whichpage=2

Placebo
23-02-2007, 10:29 AM
so, who is going to be the first to accuse Boss of insider knowledge [}:)][}:)]:D

Just kidding Boss; your calls on this have been remarkably accurate in hindsight!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/3970989a13.html

Steve
23-02-2007, 11:42 AM
Still kicking myself for not buying on the monday before the split...

TheBossMan
23-02-2007, 12:49 PM
quote:Originally posted by Placebo

so, who is going to be the first to accuse Boss of insider knowledge [}:)][}:)]:D

Just kidding Boss; your calls on this have been remarkably accurate in hindsight!


I'm probably the most far removed "insider" you'd ever see...as I've never been to a retirement village, do not know anyone who lives there, do not know anyone working for Ryman in any capacity. The only contact I've made is an interview with one of the directors before posting my valuation in 2005.

OZ retirement villages were overpriced/fully valued by 2005 itself. Just a matter of time before pvt. equities came knocking on NZ doors.

I think these villages have a potential to provide more integrated services, not just health/dwelling. That is the "extra" value B&B is probably seeking. Any guesses on other non-core, yet value-added services? How about financial/insurance products to residents?

steve fleming
29-03-2007, 08:26 PM
As i mentioned on the EBO thread, Huntleys have today just commenced coverage on a large number of NZSE stocks.

Ryman is another one that they have as a sell:

------------------------------------------

We initiate coverage on RYM with a Sell rating. Valuation appears rich at 23x P/E FY08E EPS

Investment Risks

RYM could potentially face occupation risk if it is unable to find buyers of its retirement homes. This could occur on account of higher competition or a deterioration in the level of service rendered. RYM incurs the cost of maintenance, refurbishment and marketing of a vacated unit until such time a new resident is found. Hence higher vacancies can squeeze margins.

House price inflation has a significant bearing on the companys profits. Since RYM sells occupation rights based on the current market value of the property a rising housing market will considerably increase resale value of existing properties. It is estimated that RYM is sitting on NZ$84 m of unrealized gains spawned by a three year property market boom. These will be realized as and when units are vacated and are re-priced to new occupants. However a falling market will have an adverse impact on resale gains and therefore profits. It will also impact sale of new units because potential residents will hesitate to sell their own properties in a weak market and move into a retirement home.

RYMs care fees are quite dependent on DHBs ability to fund subsidised patients. DHB also control licences for retirement hospitals and beds. Any change in the amount of subsidy or legislation will negatively impact RYMs lucrative care fee revenues.

RYM lacks management bandwidth. Managing Director Kevin Hickmans involvement in the business remains critical.

Construction delays and cost over runs could undermine profitability and returns. Fortunately RYM has a very good track record of project execution and management.

Ryman does not pay any income tax. Gain on sale of occupation rights forms the biggest component of profit. This is presently treated as capital gains for tax purposes. For instance as per the company tax rate of 33% RYM should have paid NZ$11.5m in taxes during FY06. However this was completely offset by gain on sale of occupation rights of NZ$7.54m and depreciation and interest shelter of NZ$3.2m. There remains a risk that profit from occupation rights could be taxed in future.



Valuation
At the current valuation of 23x P/E FY08E earnings RYM is trading well ahead of historic valuations of between 13x and 16x forward P/E. We reckon that the market is banking on the company besting its 15% long term EPS growth target. Notwithstanding RYMs strong reputation and attractive sector opportunities we find the valuations demanding. Our fair value of $NZ1.61 is based on 16x P/E FY08E EPS

rmbbrave
03-04-2007, 11:40 AM
NZ's Ryman sees 15 pc/year earnings grow

New Zealand's biggest listed aged-care provider Ryman Healthcare Ltd expects earnings will expand by 15 per cent in each of the next five years as an ageing population and booming property market underpin its growth.

The company develops, owns and operates retirement villages, rest homes and hospitals, with 17 existing sites around New Zealand and two under development.

Overall it caters to more than 2500 people in its facilities and expects steady growth as New Zealand's baby boomer generation retires.

"We've managed it for four or five years now, and we envisage continuing to do it for at least that period in the future," chairman David Kerr said in an interview.

He said the company faces few headwinds.

"People to tend to come to us because something happens, they need a bit more assistance, and that's not going to change with external factors such as the economy or the New Zealand dollar."

In 2004, New Zealand had 54,000 people aged 85 and over, a number forecast to increase to 320,000 by 2051.

Exposure to New Zealand's ageing population is cited by analysts as Ryman's main strength, with brokerage ABN AMRO Craig describing it in a research note as "a quality growth story with a defensive business model and a strong earnings outlook".

Ryman, with a current market value of $1.2 billion, joined the list of top 15 companies in June last year. It caps off a swift rise for the Christchurch, South Island-based company, which listed in 1999 with a capitalisation of $135 million.

Its success has caught the eye of Australian investment firm Bab****& Brown, who took a 6 per cent stake on February 22. Mr Kerr said Bab****& Brown have said they will be a passive investor.

Bab****and Brown's stake raised the possibility of a full takeover move being made on Ryman. The company has an open register with the largest shareholder, private investor Emerald Capital, holding 16 per cent.

"I'm sure the entry of Bab****and Brown introduces that thought, but. . .as a board we don't spend a lot of time agonising over what ifs, and I'd put a takeover in that category," Mr Kerr said.

Ryman's shares closed up 5c at $2.31. The company had a five for one share split in January to increase the stock's affordability, Mr Kerr said.

One of the key drivers for Ryman's growth has been the hot New Zealand housing market, where the median house value has more than doubled since 2001.

Ryman benefits because it sells new units at a market rate, and also pockets the difference in market value when a vacated unit is sold to new occupants.

Its other main revenue stream is occupation fees from residents at its hospitals and rest homes.

Mr Kerr said average turnover in retirement village units is normally several years, which flattens out short-term fluctuations in the property market.

Even if the growth in the housing market should fall sharply from its current level of about 10 per cent, Ryman would continue to see the gains on future sales, he said.

"A steady increase in the cost of domestic housing is all we need to factor in to achieve our 15 per cent."

Ryman keeps a "landbank" of sites for at least three years ahead, although Mr Kerr said sites are getting harder to find as the value of urban land across New Zealand increases.

"At any moment in time we're looking at three to five sites."

The company's policy is to develop 300 retirement units and 100 hospital beds a year.

Mr Kerr said the target was one it could easily accommodate within its existing capital structure, and did not anticipate borrowing or capital raising to fund growth.

KJ
03-04-2007, 02:48 PM
With March balance date I guess this is confirmation that things are on track.Strongest day for a while.

Footsie
03-04-2007, 09:05 PM
take profits

Snow Leopard
17-04-2007, 09:45 PM
Ryman buy some land (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=RYM&E=NZSE&N=146359) for number 21

Placebo
23-05-2007, 08:02 AM
One thing I love about being a Ryman holder is reporting season: :D


Wednesday, 23 May 2007

Ryman on a roll with retirement building boom

Ryman Healthcare is on a roll, promising 20 per cent profit growth this year, after 18 per cent growth last year.

The listed Christchurch retirement village firm's shares yesterday rose 5c to a record 258c, valuing the company at $1.29 billion, after announcing an 18 per cent increase in annual net earnings to $41.6 million, from the previous March year.

A final 2.2c dividend, payable on June 22, increases the annual rate from 2.3c to a non-imputed 4c a share, after allowing the the five-for-one share split earlier this year.

Chief executive Simon Challies said the 33 per cent jump in revenue to $190.25m for the year to March 2007 was the result of a bigger than usual building programme of 300 units (apartments and townhouses) with more than half sold.

In the past, the company, with 19 retirement villages had built about 150 units a year and it has been targeting profit growth of 15 per cent.

Australia's aggressive investment bank Bab****and Brown (B&B) took a 6 per cent stake in Ryman early this year after buying the shares from Ngai Tahu which retains 6.5 per cent.

The pair have an agreement on voting and have first dibs on each other's stake. That brought speculation B&B want to eventually make a takeover bid but other shareholders with bigger stakes said in February they were not sellers.

Challies said at the end of March Ryman had opened three new villages and that was giving it momentum. There would be no let up, with the increased pace of the building programme to continue. "That's the plan going forward to do at least 300 units per annum."

Demand for the units was strong "and we have good pre-sales at most of our new villages" he said. The building blocks were in place for even better results.

"We believe we are on target to achieve earnings growth of 20 per cent in the year ahead," he said.

"If anything has been holding us back it has been stock really, units to sell," Challies said.

Three villages were under construction, including The Anthony Wilding retirement village at Aidanfield in Christchurch, and four more villages were in the planning.

Ryman has more than 3000 rest home and retirement village beds and employs more than 1500 staff.

Challies said it was extending The Rowena Jackson Retirement Village in Invercargill, the Julia Wallace Retirement Village in Palmerston North and the Malvina Major retirement village in Khandallah, Wellington.

In Auckland it was building the Edmund Hillary Retirement Village in Remuera where the first residents had moved in. That would be a "landmark" village and eventually be home to 500 residents.

Ryman had enough land to build another 1700 units.

In Christchurch, the rest home at the Aidanfield retirement village opened in December and the first townhouses opened to residents in the last few months.


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Snow Leopard
05-07-2007, 11:47 PM
The SP has been coming back to more realistic levels over the last few weeks to a point where it is starting to be worth keeping an one eye or the other on it.

KJ
06-07-2007, 10:04 AM
Agree-around $2.00 seems a possibility now.

ratkin
16-04-2010, 08:20 PM
ENP might like a good read of this thread , will give him a good history of ryman, sentiment wise

scamper
16-04-2010, 09:18 PM
hi ratty,
i notice there's a choice of seven rym threads, but very few have been active in the last three years -- just like the post before yours.
seems like you were spot on with your choice of this title -- way back then, and now too.
noticed another thread called "why i sold my rym shares"... by guess who?
have you bought back in, or just a wide-ranging researcher? cheers, scamper