CAV - Cavalier Corp (Carpets)

[winner69]

PSE - all on track mate

So $3m-$5m which is much better than last years $1.1m profit

Wonder where all of PSE posts have gone. Somebody deleted themselves from ST?

[bull....]

recently joined cav register looking at a higher bottom forming combined with improving fundamentals

[golden city]

just got in on time today

[silverblizzard888]

And boom they are now the blue sky that we chase.
3 - 5million at PE of 10 = 30-50m mcap
3 - 5 million at PE of 15 = 45- 75m mcap
3 - 5 million at PE of 20 = 60 - 100m mcap

The average and sweet spot is likely to be around 60 million Market Cap

[bull....]

And boom they are now the blue sky that we chase.
3 - 5million at PE of 10 = 30-50m mcap
3 - 5 million at PE of 15 = 45- 75m mcap
3 - 5 million at PE of 20 = 60 - 100m mcap

The average and sweet spot is likely to be around 60 million Market Cap

im looking at 5m npat that they will achieve eps.07 pe 11-12 80c target close to your value

[golden city]

it is truely getting life back ..cav....share price looks to get back to their feet

[golden city]

next year should over 1 dollar

[blackcap]

I attended the AGM on Tuesday morning, and although thought Grant Biels speech was pathetic, was heartened to see the other directors with fresh ideas and a lot of enthusiasm. I hope they have got the right mix on board and that the appointment of the interim CEO confirmed as CEO is the correct decision. Interesting times ahead, and if momentum on the synthetics and abnormals become just that (abnormals) then there is potential for this company to initally trade on a PE of 10 again maybe which may indicate a share price of 60-70 cents if the profit targets are met. Quite a few ifs but I believe the current board are on the right track.

[Beagle]

And boom they are now the blue sky that we chase.
3 - 5million at PE of 10 = 30-50m mcap
3 - 5 million at PE of 15 = 45- 75m mcap
3 - 5 million at PE of 20 = 60 - 100m mcap

The average and sweet spot is likely to be around 60 million Market Cap

Mid point is $4m and you have to take that with a grain of salt given recent performance, gives 5.8 cps. PE... well three things spring to mind.
1. This is a cyclical stock, when the building boom is going off like it has been for some time, they should be doing well if they can get their act together and in other times they won't even when they have their management governance and stock control sorted. Cyclical stocks generally trade on a PE of 10 in my view unless there are special factors.
2. Their extremely chequered track record. Put simply, this company surely deserves to be at a discount to any PE that would otherwise apply given recent year's performance.
Even being kind and applying a PE of 9 to 5.8 cps = 52 cps.
3. Are they paying the normal tax rate on that $4m ? (If not), earnings metrics will need to be recalculated at some stage in the future and normalised for company tax at 28%.

[blackcap]

Mid point is $4m and you have to take that with a grain of salt given recent performance, gives 5.8 cps. PE... well three things spring to mind.
1. This is a cyclical stock, when the building boom is going off like it has been for some time, they should be doing well if they can get their act together and in other times they won't even when they have their management governance and stock control sorted. Cyclical stocks generally trade on a PE of 10 in my view unless there are special factors.
2. Their extremely chequered track record. Put simply, this company absolutely deserves to be at a considerable discount to any PE that would otherwise apply given recent year's performance.
Even being kind and applying a PE of 9 to 5.8 cps = 52 cps.
3. Are they paying the normal tax rate on that $4m ? (If not), earnings metrics will need to be recalculated at some stage in the future and normalised for company tax at 28%.

I could balance that out a bit with my previous post and say the checquered history MAY be gone with the new board they have chosen who MAY come out with new initiatives. I think the old board just got too lazy and comfortable and a lot of FAT started slipping in.
Totally agree with you about the PE of 10 though. If not more. So current share price is about right.

For those that are interested, asked 2 of the new directors and they were dead keen to purchase stock, but with updates and announcements had not had the opportunity under listing rules to date. Lets hope they do when the time comes that they are allowed to.

[bull....]

there fundamental problem was old geezers didnt want to change there views on wool,
price conscious people were always going to go to low cost synthetic.
massive opportunity now for them to rebound as there synthetic graph of sales show only 2yrs of sales and its starting to accelerate so they can easliy achieve big sales with right marketing godfrey will be worried now they are getting there act together

stick with my 80c price target

[golden city]

it is certainly looking better at 60c already

[vin]

hmm will keep an eye on this, secured TIL profits.. out for something new

[vin]

hmm will keep an eye on this, sold out of TIL.. looking for something new

[golden city]

i already sold til too..to get in already

[golden city]

have valued cav at 75 to 80c this around...if target met...over 1.35 next year

[silverblizzard888]

Thanks PSE for your useful insight and Jantar for passing on the message.

I think I agree with most of it that. I myself thought they were a bit undervalued, but there was never any sure sign of a big change, which made me hesitate about getting in early. I viewed it in the way that if they made 1 million in their worse year, then after that would likely be a good sign with a change in business direction.These last few signs have made it clear they are back on their game. The one thing that still worries me is their debt levels, which could be lower, but its never perfect in any case. Kind of reminds me of THL a couple of years back when they were saturated in debt and when things started changing around, everything started to change around.

[winner69]

Silverblizzard - you noted jantars post has disappeared. And his post on Santos as well.

I enjoyed hearing from PSE too.

[silverblizzard888]

Oh your right Winner, must be a no PSE affiliated zone. Well at least we got to see what was written.

[h2so4]

Shame I missed it.

Last I heard PSE was coming back in 10 years to prove a point.

Meanwhile CAV has zoomed up without him.

[Crackity]

Shame I missed it.

Last I heard PSE was coming back in 10 years to prove a point.

Meanwhile CAV has zoomed up without him.

I caught up with PSE in his spiffiest suit last week - didn't see the deleted CAV post Jantar but PSE certainly still has CAV shares - maybe he will come back to ST - who knows .....

anyway CAV seem to be on the up....

[golden city]

cav looks like will break 60c soon

[Balance]

cav looks like will break 60c soon

Still many traders who bought at lower levels taking their profit.

But if it breaks 60c, can go a long way as many CAV shareholders have been die-hard (dye-hard?) holders for decades so supply will dry up quickly.

[golden city]

i think it is about time

[golden city]

yes..61c...already

[Balance]

Impressive.

65c will be easy, I suspect from here.

[golden city]

80c by new year is the target

[bull....]

13m shares traded under 50c resistance, not all will be held still and some would have been accumulated for long term holding.
breakout above 50c reminds me of nz refining turn around both technically and fundamentally.

[golden city]

it is going to be another thl..loks like

[bull....]

lets hope this new board of directors are worth there salaries, still a few old geezers there - hope there up with the times

[golden city]

sound very passion at agm.., let's see if they can handle it

[vin]

Jumped in on this, looking forward to it.

[golden city]

welcome on board...seller dry up..looks good

[bull....]

godfrey hirst granted stay in there legal attempt to stop wool merger - nbr

damn aussies trying there hardest to stop this merger for there own greedy benefit
for once i agree with the comcom using common sense and seeing what should be in new zealands best interests not some greedy foreingners

[golden city]

share prices looks solid as rock...it is on its way up slowly..building moments

[Balance]

Impressive.

65c will be easy, I suspect from here.

Getting close.

[vin]

Creeping up. Looking good

[golden city]

looking good...over 70c by christmas

[Rhodium]

If momentum is to continue it will hit 70c by COB tomorrow. I believe the breakout will fail if it hasn't hit this point by Xmas.

[bull....]

If momentum is to continue it will hit 70c by COB tomorrow. I believe the breakout will fail if it hasn't hit this point by Xmas.

the breakout was at 50c and is in its 3rd week above this price so I would say the breakout is holding.
Its up to the new ceo and board members to now prove to the market they are truly turning the corner, the trading update was a good start but they still have lots of work to go.
Obviously opportunities like this for true turnarounds offer considerable upside in price if they work.

[bull....]

actually the board has a lot to answer for - 2011/2012 we will better align inventory to sales - lol is all i can say there inventory levels are erratic as doenst look like they have acheived this.
employee numbers have dropped considerably over the yrs thru all there restructurings yet employee costs have barely fallen? more chiefs than indians?
operating costs are poorly managed look at there cashflows so no they fail on there cost reduction effort as well.
product mix was clearly wrong - but at least they have realised synthetics are a big space to be in
the list could go on

every year just seemed like more excuses for poor management and board decisions

dont know why shareholders put up with such poor board and management for so long time will tell if its different this time or just another lot of idiots

[bull....]

actually the board has a lot to answer for - 2011/2012 we will better align inventory to sales - lol is all i can say there inventory levels are erratic as doenst look like they have acheived this.
employee numbers have dropped considerably over the yrs thru all there restructurings yet employee costs have barely fallen? more chiefs than indians?
operating costs are poorly managed look at there cashflows so no they fail on there cost reduction effort as well.
product mix was clearly wrong - but at least they have realised synthetics are a big space to be in
the list could go on

every year just seemed like more excuses for poor management and board decisions

dont know why shareholders put up with such poor board and management for so long time will tell if its different this time or just another lot of idiots

[winner69]

With golden city, balance, Roger and winner shareholders now CAV can't go wrong

A real turnaround underway we hope.

I see this as well over $3 one day .... just like RBD and DIL when market sentiment changed for the good

[macduffy]

I hope so, winner.

Correct me if I'm wrong here but RBD didn't actually dip into loss in the dark old days though, did it?

:confused:

[Balance]

With golden city, balance, Roger and winner shareholders now CAV can't go wrong

A real turnaround underway we hope.

I see this as well over $3 one day .... just like RBD and DIL when market sentiment changed for the good

That will be nice, W69 and I think it is achievable with the new Board and new management.

Bull.... is absolutely correct about the previous board and management - long stayers who had outstayed their experience and competency but were able to hang on in there due to the loyalty of Timpson and Biel. Admirable but inappropriate. The company secretary and CFO was with the company for 28 years! The previous CEO was in the industry for 40 years!

There is potential in the business with the new management and board to extract - the company retains an excellent brand name and has made the difficult transition from its wool foundations to the 'brave new' world of synthetics and wooden floorings. Late but better late than broke - which Cavalier was heading towards in the early part of this year.

The company is trading on a PE of 10X - not very demanding given it is turning around. A confirmation of its recovering fortune will see institutional interest back in the stock so $1.00 by June next year is realistic.

[Balance]

With golden city, balance, Roger and winner shareholders now CAV can't go wrong

A real turnaround underway we hope.

I see this as well over $3 one day .... just like RBD and DIL when market sentiment changed for the good

That will be nice, W69 and I think it is achievable with the new Board and new management.

Bull.... is absolutely correct about the previous board and management - long stayers who had outstayed their experience and competency but were able to hang on in there due to the loyalty of Timpson and Biel. Admirable but inappropriate. The company secretary and CFO was with the company for 28 years! The previous CEO was in the industry for 40 years! It's no wonder that the company simply had no new ideas or new direction.

There is potential in the business with the new management and board to extract - the company retains an excellent brand name and has made the difficult transition from its wool foundations to the 'brave new' world of synthetics and wooden floorings. Late but better late than broke - which Cavalier was heading towards in the early part of this year.

The company is trading on a forward PE of 10X - not very demanding given it is turning around. Turnaround stories usually see stocks trading on forward multiples much higher than that but Cavalier has disappointed twice too often.

A confirmation however of its recovering fortune will see institutional interest back in the stock so $1.00 by June next year is realistic.

[winner69]

I hope so, winner.

Correct me if I'm wrong here but RBD didn't actually dip into loss in the dark old days though, did it?

:confused:

Correction to earlier post

RBD did report a loss in F07 and share price was down as low as 57 cents shortly after

But as things changed so did market sentiment

[noodles]

Lots of excitement and bullish talk on this thread. And it appears some respected posters have taken a position. So I thought I might take a closer look. I decided to do some peer comparison on other listed building companies.

My prefer metric for peer comparison is EV/EBIT as it takes into account debt and the ability to pay out cashflows to shareholders.

These figures are based on FY16 consensus broker forecasts.




EV
EBIT
EV/EBIT
Yield(net)


FBU
6239
675
9.24
5.64


STU
288
36.7
7.85
9.29


MGL
350
32.3
10.84
4.93


CAV
76.8
8.7
8.83
0



So nothing to be excited about at the current price level. Perhaps this turnaround will take hold and as Balance suggests FY17 will see further earnings growth.

Best of luck to holders.

[h2so4]

I think we have a much smaller business now and something that can be improved upon and generate profits.

[Rhodium]

Lots of excitement and bullish talk on this thread. And it appears some respected posters have taken a position. So I thought I might take a closer look. I decided to do some peer comparison on other listed building companies.

My prefer metric for peer comparison is EV/EBIT as it takes into account debt and the ability to pay out cashflows to shareholders.

These figures are based on FY16 consensus broker forecasts.




EV
EBIT
EV/EBIT
Yield(net)


FBU
6239
675
9.24
5.64


STU
288
36.7
7.85
9.29


MGL
350
32.3
10.84
4.93


CAV
76.8
8.7
8.83
0



So nothing to be excited about at the current price level. Perhaps this turnaround will take hold and as Balance suggests FY17 will see further earnings growth.

Best of luck to holders.

I got in at 60c. Altho should have brought the bounce at 51c. This was based on a momentum/TA view point.

Im curious as to the reason for others recent entry?

[Balance]

I got in at 60c. Altho should have brought the bounce at 51c. This was based on a momentum/TA view point.

Im curious as to the reason for others recent entry?

Invest on the way up with a turnaround story, not on the way down.

Still risks around but building and refurbishment activity still expected to be strong for a while yet.

Record low mortgage rates in Australasia - historically very good for stocks like Cavalier.

[bull....]

building activity should be good for many yrs yet, chronic under supply in auckland and in other regions supply is drying up too so expect the building boom hasnt even started yet.
big upside for cav in synthetics at the mid to value end of the market and if they can sort there inventory levels to be more consistant use money to repay debt and reduce int cost and lower there inventory input costs and lower there wages cost and operating expenses and find some decent people to run the operation and get rid of the last old farts on the board who obviously provide nothing of substance going from there past track record and stop making excuses for poor performance and get the big shareholders to do there job and get rid of these useless people who destroy wealth and employ some young people with savy marketing skills and social media skills and stop crying at head office about godfrey hirst being so superior a operator.
anyway thats why im in for a turn around such a bad run company surely can only get better, i give up if they cant get it right this time and it probably go bust.

[winner69]

Lots of excitement and bullish talk on this thread. And it appears some respected posters have taken a position. So I thought I might take a closer look. I decided to do some peer comparison on other listed building companies.

My prefer metric for peer comparison is EV/EBIT as it takes into account debt and the ability to pay out cashflows to shareholders.u

These figures are based on FY16 consensus broker forecasts.




EV
EBIT
EV/EBIT
Yield(net)


FBU
6239
675
9.24
5.64


STU
288
36.7
7.85
9.29


MGL
350
32.3
10.84
4.93


CAV
76.8
8.7
8.83
0



So nothing to be excited about at the current price level. Perhaps this turnaround will take hold and as Balance suggests FY17 will see further earnings growth.

Best of luck to holders.

If you think about F17 then CAV EBIT growth will be much higher than their peers (recovery mode v maturity) which would reduce that EV/EBIT to a lower multiple than the others.

Markets are forward looking eh ....CAV is getting on a roll .....you should reconsider your views maybe?

[Saint]

What is happening to the SP?

[Not too Flash]

It is going down which happens in a share-market at times ....
What is happening to the SP?

[golden city]

it is just market reaction rather than cav fundamental .., looking to buy more if under 60c

[vin]

thoughts on current SP? bit of a drop today.

[kizame]

thoughts on current SP? bit of a drop today.

The value just gets better?

On really small volume tho.

[bull....]

waking up from sleep

[vin]

7.1%?! What would cause such a spike?

[kizame]

7.1%?! What would cause such a spike?

Umm people buying?

and remember it was there just recently and even higher. Maybe one could call it a lil recovery.

[Beagle]

Cav an interesting turnaround story with lots of potential for strong EPS growth over the next few years.

[winner69]

7.1%?! What would cause such a spike?

Great day for some of the lesser lights

Cavalier, Sealegs and Seadragon atop the leader board.

[golden city]

Looks like another winner emerge

[bull....]

Looks like another winner emerge

hopefully

Of interest technically the initial move from 41 - 60c formed a flagpole the last few weeks has formed a pennant or flag which is half mast and is considered a continuation pattern the breakout on Friday could be the start off the next part of the flag pole which in theory is the same distance as the initial part of the flag pole therefore 60 - 41 = 19c projects to 79c funny enough around the 80c fundamentally we think it maybe worth.
there results come out around late feb lets hope this is confirmed from results and there commentary

[Jinx]

it is just market reaction rather than cav fundamental .., looking to buy more if under 60c

Purchased a fair amount more since this post then?
Considering getting in at these levels myself with late feb approaching very quickly...

[bull....]

results next week, be watching to see if the turn around is taking place

[Jinx]

results next week, be watching to see if the turn around is taking place

Finding it very hard not to grab some of these before the announcement, can you see the results not being a positive turn around?

[bull....]

Finding it very hard not to grab some of these before the announcement, can you see the results not being a positive turn around?

it will be good to see if the new CEO and Chairperson are making a difference

[blackcap]

it will be good to see if the new CEO and Chairperson are making a difference

I hope so too, I hope the new Chairman (what is this thing with Chairperson :) ) and CEO make a difference. Still a couple of old fuddy duddys need to be removed from the board pronto and things may look up.

[golden city]

looking good., big debt reduction..with a modest profit with good prospect..could see the share price jump over 70c

[Beagle]

looking good., big debt reduction..with a modest profit with good prospect..could see the share price jump over 70c

Yes, very happy indeed with that result and effectively an upgraded guidance. I think they're turning the ship around and have achieved a lot in the last six months. Rome wasn't built in a day but I expect good things for FY17 and beyond. Happy to hold for completion of turnaround strategy and earnings growth.

[golden city]

Yes. Happy to keep adding while share price not wait up

[winner69]

S-T-U-N-N-I-N-G result

Yes Roger, a $1 before you know it

[blackcap]

S-T-U-N-N-I-N-G result

Yes Roger, a $1 before you know it

Winner... you being serious? I think its a good result. $2.4m normalised would be about $5m annualised in what is still a difficult environment. That puts them on a PE of 8.2. Looks pretty good to me. Might have to go and find some more $ to buy some more...

[bull....]

good effort, inventory levels still look compared to the reduction in revenue? can generate more cash flow and reduce debt more by better inventory management in my opinion

I see theres 400k of shares available for a savvy aquirer at 61c

[Jinx]

I see theres 400k of shares available for a savvy aquirer at 61c

There's 100k of them gone already

[golden city]

Looks on its to clear soon. Once that clear. Will be on its way to 80c

[Beagle]

Winner... you being serious? I think its a good result. $2.4m normalised would be about $5m annualised in what is still a difficult environment. That puts them on a PE of 8.2. Looks pretty good to me. Might have to go and find some more $ to buy some more...

You're a bright guy and know that turnarounds take time. I think $7m is possible if there's reasonable economic conditions in FY17. Definitely considerable upside potential, not sure about $1 but she's headed north I reckon. I really like the way they've really taken the knife to debt and are in the process of rebuilding a solid balance sheet.

[Jinx]

Brought in before the announcement, was very happy with the outlook after the announcement looking forward to FY17.
But have hugely disappointed with a 13% drop since my purchase, obviously no intention to sell but still disappointing, any ideas on the sell off?

[blackcap]

Brought in before the announcement, was very happy with the outlook after the announcement looking forward to FY17.
But have hugely disappointed with a 13% drop since my purchase, obviously no intention to sell but still disappointing, any ideas on the sell off?

I am surprised too. Time for the directors to start buying, as some of them stated they would do at the last AGM. I believe the window may now be open? So if I do not see any notices of directors buying I will be holding them to account on that.

[Jinx]

I am surprised too. Time for the directors to start buying, as some of them stated they would do at the last AGM. I believe the window may now be open? So if I do not see any notices of directors buying I will be holding them to account on that.

Based on the report last week I almost want to keep buying but am too scared at this point :confused:

[Balance]

Based on the report last week I almost want to keep buying but am too scared at this point :confused:

One of the directors may have just read this and started buying? :D

[vin]

Or selling

[bull....]

the companies lost so much credibility you should take a long term view for this stock - not saying they might still not stuff up before the long term arrives lol

[macduffy]

Not a good guide on a measly turnover of 9,000 shares - but CAV is up 7c (13.5%!) today. Current quotes a bit lower.

[Jinx]

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/231785.pdf

A Solid report with a good outlook on the company, by the wording I'd be hoping for a Div payment early FY17?

[Beagle]

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/231785.pdf

A Solid report with a good outlook on the company, by the wording I'd be hoping for a Div payment early FY17?

Thanks Jinx. Balance sheet looks a LOT better than last year, robust cash flow and strategic initiatives to drive more efficiencies augers well for the ongoing turnaround of the business.
Net Tangible asset backing 99 cents per share and I look forward to seeing the SP track up towards that figure in due course.

[brend]

Thanks Jinx. Balance sheet looks a LOT better than last year, robust cash flow and strategic initiatives to drive more efficiencies augers well for the ongoing turnaround of the business.
Net Tangible asset backing 99 cents per share and I look forward to seeing the SP track up towards that figure in due course.

there still appears to be still quite a high level of debt and the reduction this year was mainly attributed from the sale of investments.

[Beagle]

Cash flow from operations looks good to me Brend and further,.debt is down dramatically in overall terms and that's what counts going forward.

[Jinx]

Up 7% after a hour, maybe one day I'll see cav turn a profit for me after I brought it on a high :t_down:

[Beagle]

You mean you jinxed it mate :D (Sorry couldn't resist).

I reckon they're dirt cheap. EPS under GAAP is 5.1 cps, normalised excluding gain on sale of operations 3.5 cps for the half so at least 7 cps for the full year.

Further planned efficiency and enhancement strategies should see this increase significantly in FY17 and FY18 and 10 cps is quite possible in due course.

Current year PE normalised profit looks like only 8.4 and with further new initiatives planned I expect the SP to track back towards its NTA of 99 cps over time.

[Jinx]

Another one of the oldies gone
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/232189.pdf
Thoughts?

[eew59]

Another one of the oldies gone
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/232189.pdf
Thoughts?

A good clean out of old practices that was well overdue. Onwards and upwards.

[golden city]

Breaking trend comming.

[golden city]

Long anticipated

[Jinx]

Breaking trend comming.

But will it stay at this level by days close?

[vin]

Sheesh, skyrocket

[golden city]

Looking promising with better volume

[janner]

Did my usual tap dancing as it went up..

TA ..Daa !!.. Bought 30/12/15 @ .60... Must have been the Christmas cheer..

It has been a long hang over..

Appears now to have been a good decision.. :-)))

[kizame]

[QUOTE=janner;614919]Did my usual tap dancing as it went up..

TA ..Daa !!.. Bought 30/12/15 @ .60... Must have been the Christmas cheer..

It has been a long hang over..

Yes a great decision,bought at 58 but missed lots of opportunities to trade in and out as it tracked sideways. dah.
But great recovery stock.

[bull....]

needs to hold these gains, last attempt to break out at these levels buyers didn't follow thru, but time has moved on and cav recovery should be moving on , aud/nzd cross is a lot better now than at there half yr and if there sorting out those inventories its only about time

[eew59]

And in addition their interest cost will be much lower due to major debt reduction during the first half.

[Jinx]

And in addition their interest cost will be much lower due to major debt reduction during the first half.

Cav is my most anticipated stock, can see a lot of upside and the only chance for a downside is if they completely screw up the company revitalization

[bull....]

Cav is my most anticipated stock, can see a lot of upside and the only chance for a downside is if they completely screw up the company revitalization

lol - yes hopefully this time is different

[winner69]

Seems CAV is a dead cert to make punters rich

Chart looking pretty good as well.

[macduffy]

Cav is my most anticipated stock, can see a lot of upside and the only chance for a downside is if they completely screw up the company revitalization

I don't think outside influences should be entirely discounted. The risk of competition, lower demand, higher input costs - freight etc. Not everything's within the company's control and responsive to the new broom.

Holding a few.

[janner]

Seems CAV is a dead cert to make punters rich

Chart looking pretty good as well.

Good to see that the glass is still half full W69. :-))))))))))))

[Beagle]

Patience is starting to show some rewards.

[janner]

Patience is starting to show some rewards.

A virtue preached by the elders !!!..

In this case I believe it will be rewarded..

Disc. Holding.

[golden city]

Happy man. Holding heaps

[kizame]

Happy man. Holding heaps

Good for you,I think I need to aquire a few more when it has a little rest.

[bull....]

And in addition their interest cost will be much lower due to major debt reduction during the first half.

Also loan facilities are up for renewal in jan 2017 so could be possibility of lower interest costs again

[bull....]

nzx - please explain why price is going up?
cav - we don't know? could be due to more houses being built or we are finally sorting the mess out around here and getting rid of the dead wood ?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CAV/announcements/280715

[Jinx]

nzx - please explain why price is going up?
cav - we don't know? could be due to more houses being built or we are finally sorting the mess out around here and getting rid of the dead wood ?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CAV/announcements/280715

Disappointing to see the sp slip so much because of this announcement, I suspect no wrong doing & that there has just been peaked interest from the valuation listed in the link + what appears to a sure winner!

[Hoop]

Sometimes it is nice to be on the receiving end of a speeding ticket:cool:
Disc : hold CAV

[golden city]

Every time speed ticket issued. She drive faster haha

[golden city]

Someone starting to accumulate big holdings

[Hmm]

"65% net job loss"... wow https://www.nzx.com/companies/CAV/announcements/280773

[Jinx]

"65% net job loss"... wow https://www.nzx.com/companies/CAV/announcements/280773

Share price unchanged; Do these job loses a failing company or just one that is restructuring?

Holding.

[bull....]

while it is always sad to see people lose there jobs this is highly bullish news for the company going forward.

savings from employee costs, lease savings from buildings and equipment, margin improvement in products etc etc highly bullish

2017 - 18 will be big year

[winner69]

Would have thought that getting rid of 65 people would have put a rocket under the share price.

On thing CAV financials will be hard to follow over the next few years - real profits, normalised profits, ebitda before non-recurring expenses and all that bull****. Even more complicated than in the past - Roger might have trouble working out whats going on.

Whatever the headline profit that will be reported will be brilliant = share price > $1

[golden city]

Short term pain. Long term gain looking good

[sb9]

Short term pain. Long term gain looking good

Dipped in my toes today, by next reporting time I bet sp will be closer to that $1 mark....if continue to keep the good work and market conditions remain reasonably favourable. Have faith in their management team especially the new chair Ms Haydon.

[macduffy]

I'm told that the current craze for Fitbits and the obsessive need to achieve 10,000 steps per day is resulting in hordes of office workers filling every spare moment walking round and round their offices.

Just a matter of time before all those carpets wear out and have to be replaced!

;)

[sb9]

Lower debt, consolidation of operations, improving cash flow are all recipe for future success.

[eew59]

Lower debt, consolidation of operations, improving cash flow are all recipe for future success.

As well as lower AUD/NZD exchange rate will assist Aussie sales margins.

[Jinx]

Is there any concern that the 4 - 4.5 million cost of this consolidation will impact hard on the profit for 15/16? Or has it been calculated in to the 15/16 profit margin?

[sb9]

Is there any concern that the 4 - 4.5 million cost of this consolidation will impact hard on the profit for 15/16? Or has it been calculated in to the 15/16 profit margin?

I'm sure they've provisions/plans in place for this, as this would've been one of their important agenda points to turnaround the fortunes of company with new CEO and Chair in place.

[Beagle]

Is there any concern that the 4 - 4.5 million cost of this consolidation will impact hard on the profit for 15/16? Or has it been calculated in to the 15/16 profit margin?

Lets be clear, it will wipe out the profit this year almost entirely but will probably be treated as an extraordinary item below the profit line so won't impact normalised profit, (a term I personally despise) but the new guard are dispensing with manufacturing facilities that are obviously well past best practice and right sizing production capability for the future in the most efficient way and the payback period of just over 1 year is there for all too see.

Who wouldn't take a $4.5m one-off hit to generate ongoing annual efficiencies that look something like $3.5 - $4.0m. This is what real progress looks like when the new broom cleans out lots of old dead wood...(disposal of dead wood and eradication of dead wood practices and manufacturing methodologies is never free).

[percy]

Unless demand picks up they will need to keep downsizing.

[Gunny]

The changes were reported very negatively on TV 1 news tonight. It will be interesting to see if this will panic small investors causing a dip in SP. May be an opportunity to pick up a few more in the short term. We shall see.

Gunny

[Jinx]

Lets be clear, it will wipe out the profit this year almost entirely but will probably be treated as an extraordinary item below the profit line so won't impact normalised profit, (a term I personally despise) but the new guard are dispensing with manufacturing facilities that are obviously well past best practice and right sizing production capability for the future in the most efficient way and the payback period of just over 1 year is there for all too see.

Who wouldn't take a $4.5m one-off hit to generate ongoing annual efficiencies that look something like $3.5 - $4.0m. This is what real progress looks like when the new broom cleans out lots of old dead wood...(disposal of dead wood and eradication of dead wood practices and manufacturing methodologies is never free).

Thanks for such an in-depth answer, great post.
There certainly has been a quick turn around between new management and downsizing. I hope the new faces within CAV management continue to produce such good efficiently


The changes were reported very negatively on TV 1 news tonight. It will be interesting to see if this will panic small investors causing a dip in SP. May be an opportunity to pick up a few more in the short term. We shall see.

Gunny

This will be very interesting to see if a negative news story on prime time will impact the sp significantly.
I'd be picking up more.

[macduffy]

The changes were reported very negatively on TV 1 news tonight. It will be interesting to see if this will panic small investors causing a dip in SP. May be an opportunity to pick up a few more in the short term. We shall see.

Gunny

TV News' first reaction to such stories always seems to be the "human interest" angle rather than the business implications. Understandable, I suppose, given that they're not aiming at a specific "business" audience at that time. I doubt that their story will have much influence on the market today.

[winner69]

Roger - almost without fail Cavalier incur restructuring / rationalisation / closures costs ....and excluded from 'normalised' earnings (as non-recurring or discontinued operations).

So regular (recurring) things hare 'normal'


Wonder what next years 'non-recurring' costs will be?

Inevitability there will be one - it's normal in these types of business these days

Whatever it gives management and shareholders the warm fuzzies so its all OK

[Hoop]

This latest drop in price came a day before the restructure announcement ..Hmmm.To be fair those people with their jobs on the line would probably feel or heard that something was going on and this info would be hard to keep under wraps until the announcement...

So pre-announcement selling by a small number of investors may have faked themselves out as the TA is bullish ...That selling did dent the more sensitive indicators but no real damage resulted....For TA damage to occur the new breakout had to fail and so far this hasn't happened and it looks like the 66c support could be the new floor.
Disc: Still Holding CAV

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/CAV%2013042016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/CAV%2013042016.png.html)

[winner69]

My morbid fascination with companies like Cavalier continues (companies that make stuff for houses and buildings because I know an awful lot about them) - save me please

Chart is CAV share price with the big dots each time they made a big announcement about restructuring, closing plants, buying and selling bus and all that sort of stuff

Each announcement said it will us cost us $X but in following years we will make $X+ more ...and we remain committed to manufacturing woollen carpets in NZ

To me each restructure is just another step on the way to the inevitable - because they don't seem to want to (or are incapable of) reinvent themselves in times that are a changin

Good stories eh .... chart doesn't say so

The CEO on the radio this morning out that years ago 70% of carpet sold in NZ was woollen but that has dropped to 10% currently ...hmmm

One would never invest (medium/long term) in CAV on fundamentals - better to punt on the cyclic changes in the hopes and warm fuzzies and just follow the crowds and get out before they realise that that hoping is not really a good strategy

But then again this time is different isn't it

[winner69]

One thought

If Methven can turn themselves around so can Cavalier

Maybe hope is a strategy after all

(Hoop - sometimes your charts play havoc with what I see on the thread. This one of them)

[percy]

One thought

If Methven can turn themselves around so can Cavalier

Maybe hope is a strategy after all

(Hoop - sometimes your charts play havoc with what I see on the thread. This one of them)

Do Methven do any manufacturing in NZ?

[brend]

Do Methven do any manufacturing in NZ?

plant in avondale I think

but alot in china

[sb9]

Article from NBR weekend....for those don't have access to paid content....(Sorry to clutter up)

What Cavalier has pulled out of its hat is working
Regular readers of this column will be aware Shoeshine has stuck his boot into listed carpet maker Cavalier Corp [NZX: CAV (https://nzx.com/markets/NZSX/securities/cav)] on occasion.
Most notably it was at the time of Cavalier’s 2014 annual meeting (http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/investors-dismay-cavalier-approach-firm-fraying), which one influential shareholder described as one of the worst performances by an under-pressure board in recent memory.
Shoeshine’s criticism wasn’t limited to just his own observations but was also a reflection of the frustration investors felt over the company back then.
The main point was the previous board and management team appeared bereft of ideas needed to dig the company out of the hole they had dug.
The company’s financial position had weakened dramatically, largely due to a combination of rising fibre input costs, a strong New Zealand dollar against the Australian dollar and low greasy wool prices.
But it was also argued that Cavalier was slow to react to these dynamics while its debt levels soared to unsustainable levels.
Although Cavalier did restructure its business, it wasn’t enough to stem the declining earnings, and overheads remained high while competitors had stolen a march on consumer trends toward cheaper synthetic carpet.
Cavalier’s market capitalisation had shrunk from $130 million to just $25 million in less than 12 months.
The November 2014 shareholders meeting was a catalyst for more radical action as it became clear the old guard had passed their use-by date, for want of a better phrase.
Out with the old, in with the new
Deloitte was called in to work on a debt reduction plan and three-year strategy for the business.
Changes at board level and senior management were ushered in.
Out went former chairman Alan James and managing director Colin McKenzie. Long-serving director Graeme Hawkins also retired, ending his 18-year stint on the Cavalier board in March this year.
The new brooms included new chairwoman Sarah Haydon, who had been on the board since August 2012, Steve Bootten, Dianne McAteer and John Rae.
In May 2015 Paul Alston was promoted to chief executive having been chief financial officer since November 2012. A former banker, who started his career with Deloitte in Wellington, Mr Alston has proved to be a good choice to lead Cavalier out of the mire.
But what has also caught Shoeshine’s attention is that the gender balance of Cavalier’s key personnel is starting to tip toward women.
Former KPMG audit partner Sarah Hipkiss is the latest appointment and she will assume the CFO role from September this year.
This follows the appointment of Cathy Howitt as general manager of New Zealand sales.
As previously mentioned, the fresh board now has two female directors, including Haydon.
Perhaps this tilt reflects Cavalier’s consumer products being carpet and flooring materials, which are more likely to be chosen by women but the composition certainly reflects a more modern approach to governance.
The board now comprises of four independent directors, with a tenure of between eight months and four years, and one non-independent director.
Showing results
The results are starting to show on the back of some bold moves and the company’s shares have gained 60% over the past six months.
News this week that Cavalier will consolidate manufacturing operations to Napier and Whanganui and close its Christchurch plant has attracted some negative headlines given the loss of 65 jobs.
But it’s part of a much wider restructuring process that has been needed for some time.
The trick for Cavalier will be to minimise the one-time costs of this and any further plant closures.
The company expects costs of between $4-4.5 million in the 2015/16 financial year for employment payments, and the relocation of equipment.
On the upside, Mr Alston says “significant” benefits will flow through in the 2016/17 and 2017/18 years, with a payback from the restructuring of its yarn spinning operation expected in slightly over one year.
Cavalier’s previous earnings outlook had suggested a profit of $4.5-5 million in the year to June 30, ahead of last year’s normalised earnings of $1.1 million.
The company is targeting a return to “acceptable levels of profitability” in the 2017 financial year.
Earlier this week Cavalier was asked by NZX to explain a jump in share price from 59c to 75c.
The only thing it could point to was a report published by Vulcan Capital on April 7, which carried a buy recommendation on the shares at 57c.
Not to be confused with Paul Allen’s investment firm, Vulcan Capital is a boutique Auckland-based firm founded by Brett Wilkinson and Sam MacDonald.
Its report on Cavalier goes over the company’s restructuring, including the exit of the loss-making Ontera business, the sale of Cavalier’s Sydney warehouse and moves to reduce inventory and shave overhead costs to match competitors such as Godfrey Hirst.
It notes that Cavalier has reduced debt over the past 12 months by $26 million and will benefit from low interest rates given that its overall debt to the BNZ is more acceptable.
Vulcan also highlights the trend toward synthetic carpets and that Cavalier is inching its product mix higher in this regard.
“It would be fair to say that Cavalier was late to the market with the synthetic range of carpets. However, to a large extent, the ‘Cavalier’ brand name has enabled them to claw back market share.
“At the same time, low volume margin lines are being deleted from the range. This simplification process is seen as assisting in driving productivity gains.”
Vulcan says that as long as the New Zealand dollar stays in the 88c-90c range against the Australian dollar, Cavalier should build profits to $7 million, or 10c per share, for 2017.
Shoeshine reckons there is still some difficulties in forecasting Cavalier’s profit expectations, given the costs associated with its restructuring and the cyclical nature of the business.
But the steps taken by the new board and management has the company moving in the right direction at last.
Shoeshine’s last column on Cavalier said the company needed to pull a rabbit out of its hat to pull itself out of a dire situation.
It’s still early days in a long battle but what Cavalier has done is certainly working.

[bull....]

bank guy running the show that's why this time could be different in the turn around, reduce debt and inventories rid of the dead wood, improve relevant product lines improve margins etc etc

[sb9]

I think the horse getting unbolted for another run-up.

[bull....]

I think the horse getting unbolted for another run-up.

looks like 66c held as support as hoop mentioned this figure, take out of 75c previous high other week would be pretty bullish

[sb9]

looks like 66c held as support as hoop mentioned this figure, take out of 75c previous high other week would be pretty bullish

Sure thing, 75c seem to be the resistance once that's broken it'll race to the 80s...

[sb9]

Nothing much happening here eh, just like sp not going anywhere. Need some news to kick into action.

[vin]

Was thinking this today, I've put too much of my finances into the share market, need to make a culling! Something needs to move...

[Jinx]

Was thinking this today, I've put too much of my finances into the share market, need to make a culling! Something needs to move...

You'd be a very silly to move CAV before later this month they release something similar to last years CAV: Earnings outlook and related matters (http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CAV&E=NZSE&N=264561) CAV is boring, agreed. But by the end of the month well be at minimum 80c I'd guess.

[vin]

Cheers for the heads up, will sit tight.

[sb9]

You'd be a very silly to move CAV before later this month they release something similar to last years CAV: Earnings outlook and related matters (http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CAV&E=NZSE&N=264561) CAV is boring, agreed. But by the end of the month well be at minimum 80c I'd guess.

Agree 100%, expecting some sort of earnings outlook news some time this month.

[blackcap]

Agree 100%, expecting some sort of earnings outlook news some time this month.

Correct me if I am wrong but from memory these are almost always negative as far as CAV is concerned. As a shareholder I will not be hoping for one to come this month :):P

[sb9]

Correct me if I am wrong but from memory these are almost always negative as far as CAV is concerned. As a shareholder I will not be hoping for one to come this month :):P

Might be something to do with historic, with new CEO and Chair things are surely on the way up. The recent 6 monthly commentary was an example.

[blackcap]

Might be something to do with historic, with new CEO and Chair things are surely on the way up. The recent 6 monthly commentary was an example.

My comments were totally tongue in cheek sb9. I do remember being at the AGM an receiving an email that morning about an earnings upgrade... saw the shareprice shoot up by some 20 odd percent or so. I have faith in the new board, still early days but they seem to be on the right track.

[Jinx]

Decent profit this year (their estimate 3-5m) my estimate 4-5m.
Alot of consolidation this year as well as a new board. Big improvements to profit for FY17.
Wouls also be guessing a return to a dividend policy by FY17 all things going well :)

[sb9]

Current market depth showing strong bids at 67c and 66c, must be betting close to an update from the management sooner....just my guess.

[sb9]

1
6
11:14:05 am
66
90,000
$59,400



2
5
11:14:05 am
66
10,000
$6,600



3
4
11:12:28 am
67
250,000
$167,500
Off Market



Something's up???

[kizame]

Quoted buyers seem to be dwindling a bit,except for the 100k order at 66. But long term recovery stock.

[Jinx]

Something's up???

I'd suggest there'd be a slow increase in sp until the next set of results which are looking more and more likely to be very positive compared to this time last year.

[sb9]

I'd suggest there'd be a slow increase in sp until the next set of results which are looking more and more likely to be very positive compared to this time last year.

My thoughts are more around a trading update/upgrade....

[Jinx]

My thoughts are more around a trading update/upgrade....

Yep that would also suffice, any news that they are looking at close to or over 5 million profit should be considered very good news.

[bull....]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11648049

lets hope cavalier is enjoying some of this

[Jinx]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11648049

lets hope cavalier is enjoying some of this

"On an unadjusted basis, new housing consents were up 28 percent to 1,742 in April "
Surely with that much of a jump Cav have to be enjoying something!

[sb9]

"On an unadjusted basis, new housing consents were up 28 percent to 1,742 in April "
Surely with that much of a jump Cav have to be enjoying something!

I'm hanging out for an update from the company sooner...

[winner69]

"On an unadjusted basis, new housing consents were up 28 percent to 1,742 in April "
Surely with that much of a jump Cav have to be enjoying something!

For years CAV revenue trends followed NZ new housing activity (consent numbers) - even though they are an ANZ business.

That relationship broke down in a while ago

Since 2011 new residential consents have more than doubled - CAV sales gradually declining and still hovering around the $200m mark

Says a lot about the demand for CAV products (in particular wool carpet).

One would have to assume the carpet 'market' is significantly greater than 5 years ago (new housing and commercial activity in both Au and NZ) and obviously CAV have and continue to lose market share

But CAV continue to save their way into profitability

[kizame]

For years CAV revenue trends followed NZ new housing activity (consent numbers) - even though they are an ANZ business.

That relationship broke down in a while ago

Since 2011 new residential consents have more than doubled - CAV sales gradually declining and still hovering around the $200m mark

Says a lot about the demand for CAV products (in particular wool carpet).

One would have to assume the carpet 'market' is significantly greater than 5 years ago (new housing and commercial activity in both Au and NZ) and obviously CAV have and continue to lose market share

But CAV continue to save their way into profitability

But they now produce synthetic carpets,so that could be a game changer for them.

[sb9]

Someone matches a tiny parcel of 874 shares at 67c right on close, go figure that!

[sb9]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/godfrey-hirst-loses-court-appeal-against-cavaliers-wool-scour-merger-b-190083

Article not behind pay wall.

[vin]

I'm hanging out for an update from the company sooner...


I thought we were expecting update last month??

[sb9]

I thought we were expecting update last month??

That's was the expectation, may be this month?

[bull....]

probably report time

[Jinx]

That's was the expectation, may be this month?

Looking at last years updates it seems like Cav won't' be releasing anything for a while
but I'm a happy holder until the next market update - they might not be overly communicative but once the profit numbers start rolling in after all the consolidation the timing will be the last of my worries!

[winner69]

No news is good news insofar as CAV is concerned

[Jinx]

No news is good news insofar as CAV is concerned

Why's that?

[winner69]

Why's that?

CAV updates over the years have generally been profit downgrades

So no news = things going OK = good

[Hoop]

Buyers temporarily disappeared ..a big range between Buyers 60 and sellers at 67....Ripe for a shakeout tactic?

[sb9]

Buyers temporarily disappeared ..a big range between Buyers 60 and sellers at 67....Ripe for a shakeout tactic?

Yes the big spread between ask and bid suggests that, let's wait and see.

[Jinx]

My guess by days end, no one sells at 60c
Someone buys at 67.

[Hoop]

My guess by days end, no one sells at 60c
Someone buys at 67.
Seems to be the way it will go now.. buyer at 64.. spread narrowing.. so that shakeout tactical play opportunity is now gone

[sb9]

Seems to be the way it will go now.. buyer at 64.. spread narrowing.. so that shakeout tactical play opportunity is now gone

Better trading depth today....buyers keen albeit at lower price range.

[gmatt]

My guess by days end, no one sells at 60c
Someone buys at 67.

On the move .......... I think 75 by the end of the week

[bull....]

godfrey hirst appealing decision - not a surprise as these aussies will do anything for there own benefit - they took feltex they were hoping cavalier would go bust.
lets hope they fail and the whats better for nz wins the day and not some greedy godfrey hirst

[Jinx]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/238187.pdf

Another profit upgrade. Seems the new management and company consolidation is going well.

[blackcap]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/238187.pdf

Another profit upgrade. Seems the new management and company consolidation is going well.

80 cents plus here we come... the turnaround continues...

That is very promising and if this "turnaround" can continue there is no reason that CAV cannot get to 7-10 million profits again in a year or two.
Nice to see the CEO also being able to "run" the company after doing the hard slash and burn work earlier on when required.
Still waiting for the board to buy some stock though.....

[vin]

At least theres a bit of green in this doom and gloom!

[bull....]

80 cents plus here we come... the turnaround continues...

That is very promising and if this "turnaround" can continue there is no reason that CAV cannot get to 7-10 million profits again in a year or two.
Nice to see the CEO also being able to "run" the company after doing the hard slash and burn work earlier on when required.
Still waiting for the board to buy some stock though.....

2016 - 2017 10m I reckon is achievable like ya say blackcap would make it very cheap at current prices if achieved about a 5 pe by my assumption

[macduffy]

Any known reason for today's 8% SP rise?

[bull....]

big buyer wants in now? must be something up as they buying at market

[blackcap]

big buyer wants in now? must be something up as they buying at market

Yeah bit of a bugger, put an order in last night but obviously not filled. Oh well might have to pay up for something that I think is still undervalued.

[Balance]

$6m NPAT and eps of 8.7c = Trading on historical PER of 8.7 times.

As a recovery stock, should be trading a higher PER but market wary and probably rightly so.

Next major step up in sp likely however when Cavalier starts paying dividends again.

Yield will be very yummy.

[Balance]

Happy to keep putting a few away every time the traders get nervous and the sp falls down to 70c.

[bull....]

$6m NPAT and eps of 8.7c = Trading on historical PER of 8.7 times.

As a recovery stock, should be trading a higher PER but market wary and probably rightly so.

Next major step up in sp likely however when Cavalier starts paying dividends again.

Yield will be very yummy.

there total debt to equity is comparable to past yrs now but still think they need to reduce long term debt more before divs but agree when divs restart should be a juicy yield at this price

[Balance]

there total debt to equity is comparable to past yrs now but still think they need to reduce long term debt more before divs but agree when divs restart should be a juicy yield at this price

Agree market will be watching very carefully where they are with debt when they report in August 2016.

2015 AR : "We are now well-advanced with the implementation of these plans, with the end result a tightly focused and profitable operation – underpinned by a stronger balance sheet and with net bank debt expected to be somewhere between $35 and $40 million by the middle of the 2016 financial year, compared with $53.9 million at the end of June 2015."

Interesting that the company actually reduced debt to $32.4m - below the target debt level stated above.

Could be a nice surprise dividend in August 2016? In which case, I expect the sp to hit $1.00 by year end.

Just my own views BTW. DYOR!

[blackcap]

I attended the AGM last year and was impressed enough to start purchasing. Have been ever since and was not overly surprised by the latest profit upgrade. The F/Y will be interesting and once and if dividends are reinstated then this should go up in price. As Balance said, the PE is very low but many may be gun shy, but that was the old board and this new board till now have not disappointed with the appointments and general direction the company has taken. Time will as always tell.

[Balance]

I attended the AGM last year and was impressed enough to start purchasing. Have been ever since and was not overly surprised by the latest profit upgrade. The F/Y will be interesting and once and if dividends are reinstated then this should go up in price. As Balance said, the PE is very low but many may be gun shy, but that was the old board and this new board till now have not disappointed with the appointments and general direction the company has taken. Time will as always tell.

Enough signs there of a sustainable turnaround to give some of us confidence. Cavalier has a good name, good manufacturing facilities and a good distribution network to leverage off.

It is rather sad that this iconic NZ company nearly went the way of Feltex under the previous board and management. Too many years of stale ideas (Alan James was in the job and company since 1995! His successor, Wayne Chung, was the finance CEO and had been there even longer than Alan!) even while the market changed from under and around the company.

Once owned the shares when the company was paying 40 cps fully imputed dividends a year!

[macduffy]

Ah, those were the days! Three dividends per year there for a while!

Disc: Still have a few - unfortunately - but might be tempted to re-build the holding!

[blackcap]

It is rather sad that this iconic NZ company nearly went the way of Feltex under the previous board and management. Too many years of stale ideas (Alan James was in the job and company since 1995! His successor, Wayne Chung, was the finance CEO and had been there even longer than Alan!) even while the market changed from under and around the company.

Once owned the shares when the company was paying 40 cps fully imputed dividends a year!

Ah those were the days. Yes three dividends per year and stock price of $5. What surprised me at the last AGM was that Grant Biel re-stood for election and that he was elected. There is no reason whatsoever for a director to be there that long. Yes he may have been the founder but surely give a token position (like founding member) but not on the board. I voted against him and thought the mood was ripe to get rid of him. Still his voice will (hopefully) be inconsequential and I think it was the past board, long in the tooth, that did not respond adequately to a rapidly changing market.
To now the new board have responded well to what has to be done and here is hoping they made the correct choice with the CEO.

[bull....]

need to see cost of goods sold come down that will get your divs closer, inventorys should be declining as wool prices are falling now and lower oil price helps as well

[golden city]

Happy holding. Build up holding for while

[golden city]

Looking promising at 80c

[bull....]

Looking promising at 80c

yes cheap, I emailed company a week ago with questions to update my analysis so feel very comfortable with my holding now.

[golden city]

Very good. What is the target price for you bull. I am looking at 1.30

[bull....]

Very good. What is the target price for you bull. I am looking at 1.30


hi gc I did have 80c and we are here but since I updated my analysis I have raised my target ,I have forward earnings at 5 compared to 8- 9 at 80c. 2016 - 17 should be a good yr and when they start paying divs again even 5c for3.5m cost should be esay once debt is reduced would give a yield of 6 odd so pretty attractive.
we could be looking at the biggest building boom ever in nz so cav should be well placed for this.

on the charts 1.20 looks like first fib resistance.

[golden city]

Into another gear now

[Balance]

Agree market will be watching very carefully where they are with debt when they report in August 2016.

2015 AR : "We are now well-advanced with the implementation of these plans, with the end result a tightly focused and profitable operation – underpinned by a stronger balance sheet and with net bank debt expected to be somewhere between $35 and $40 million by the middle of the 2016 financial year, compared with $53.9 million at the end of June 2015."

Interesting that the company actually reduced debt to $32.4m - below the target debt level stated above.

Could be a nice surprise dividend in August 2016? In which case, I expect the sp to hit $1.00 by year end.

Just my own views BTW. DYOR!

Sp gaining turnaround momentum - expectations of a dvividend?

Even a 1c dividend will send a huge signal to the market.

[golden city]

That is what we waiting for. Could well be a small dividends if in August they already know they trading well

[bull....]

massive building boom coming

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11681700

good for cav

[winner69]

massive building boom coming

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11681700

good for cav

Even more massive than that story says

http://www.interest.co.nz/property/82758/infometrics-expects-big-jump-high-density-housing-once-aucklands-unitary-plan

But then its been pretty massive forbthe lsst few years - done Cavalier any good?

Building boom is just getting massiver

[bull....]

think the massive was only really in Christchurch and a lot was commercial the rest of the country has been going backwards the boom will be residential construction as supply is falling right across the country look at fbu share price didn't really do much last few yrs now it is taking off due to the coming building boom.... baboom

[golden city]

everything looks on its way back up.., this stock..,

[golden city]

Looks like dollar is comming soon

[Balance]

Looks like dollar is comming soon

Looks like traders scrambling to buy back stock they sold at under 76c, thinking they can buy back at under 70c?

Maybe too late for them as market seems to have sniffed something positive coming up.

[golden city]

Depth looks super strong.

[Hoop]

Looks like traders scrambling to buy back stock they sold at under 76c, thinking they can buy back at under 70c?

Maybe too late for them as market seems to have sniffed something positive coming up.

Inexperienced or very short term traders maybe but not this Jedi ..The chart has been strong (entry then accumulate on throwbacks) for 8 months now..Notice the accumulating opportunities with the 3 throwbacks...falls back to 52, 65(60), 70 I have only marked in two throwbacks on the chart below the 65(60) & 70...

Although throwbacks occur about 50% of the time CAV's behaviour makes the odds higher than 50% as it has a climbing steps pattern...so chances are the next buy (accumulate) action could be at 76/77c area.

May the force continue to be with you :D

Disc: Own and accumulating

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/CAV%2026072016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/CAV%2026072016.png.html)

[Placemakers]

Inexperienced or very short term traders maybe but not this Jedi ..The chart has been strong (entry then accumulate on throwbacks) for 8 months now..Notice the accumulating opportunities with the 3 throwbacks...falls back to 52, 65(60), 70 I have only marked in two throwbacks on the chart below the 65(60) & 70
May the force continue to be with you :D

Disc: Own and accumulating

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/CAV%2026072016.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/CAV%2026072016.png.html)



What a wonderful piece of work!! thank you so much

[bull....]

probably people just realising once debt is reduced to acceptable levels they will resume dividends hopefully next yr and that the coming building boom means cav should be making heaps of profit.

[Hoop]

probably people just realising once debt is reduced to acceptable levels they will resume dividends hopefully next yr and that the coming building boom means cav should be making heaps of profit.
Thanks Placemakers

Yeah Bull,,,..that's probably the reasons why the market sentiment towards CAV has turned to positive...

[golden city]

good as gold. Trend firmly upwards

[janner]

My Christmas present 31/12/15 @ 60 cents :-))))

[bull....]

what do you think of the unitary plan for Auckland?

http://www.landlords.co.nz/article/5811/auckland-s-future-is-up-and-out

pretty awesome if they can achieve it
but that would mean an enormous jump in building consents - Auckland would have to double consents issued from current mths to roughly 1400 - 1500 per mth or 17000 a yr

http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/industry_sectors/Construction/BuildingConsentsIssued_HOTPMay16.aspx
http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/industry_sectors/Construction/BuildingConsentsIssued_MRMay16.aspx


and with migration in an uptrend since 2012 currently running 5000 - 6000 net per yr will even 422000 new dwellings be enough?

http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/Migration/IntTravelAndMigration_HOTPJun16.aspx

and all this is just Auckland add in the rest of the country and theres you go the biggest building boom in nz history is coming.

whos going to benefit

look at fbu price last couple mths ballistic someone new lol
cav for sure 2500 dwellings per yr now to 20000 per yr if you add in the whole country that's a lot of extra carpet
methven?
who else?

anyway see the potential it take a while to get going but govt has to move it this could cost them election if they don't get going pronto and when a politician feels like they might lose things happen quick.

cav could do the most sales and profits could go ballistic - as long as they get the basics right and streamline the business well and all the other things that impact profit fall into line gonna be a 10 bagger I reckon and also as long as the world doesn't implode financially or Donald trump doesn't wins haha

[janner]

and all this is just Auckland add in the rest of the country and theres you go the biggest building boom in nz history is coming.

whos going to benefit.



Not the number eight culture... IMHO...

[golden city]

Hopefully the company has the right product to offer

[bull....]

Hopefully the company has the right product to offer

yes right product mix of synthetic carpets at the right pricing will boost sales big-time as they havnt been well represented in this space.

[Gunny]

Only a few weeks to full year result in late August.

[golden city]

start to price in a small dividends...maybe

[golden city]

it will be a boost of confidence if they can fork out couple cents of dividends

[bull....]

it will be a boost of confidence if they can fork out couple cents of dividends

690k for 1c could do it but even guidance for next yr would be a big confidence boost for shareholders

[Balance]

690k for 1c could do it but even guidance for next yr would be a big confidence boost for shareholders

It will be a very wise thing for Cavalier (and the banks behind the scene) to pay a dividend.

Strategy will be to get that sp back above $1.00 at least and if necessary, do an underwritten rights issue at say 70c to get the banks off Cavalier's back once and for all.

Then, it's back to 3 dividend payments a year.

[vin]

Hit 90c, loving it!

[golden city]

Looks like the building boom looks very good ahead for cav

[Balance]

92 cents - the carpets are walking out the door!

[bull....]

92 cents - the carpets are walking out the door!

the turn around is happening just think if they get back near historical divs at some stage once debt is down enough on average I think they paid around 18c/share that would be nearly 19% return a yr at current prices

[golden city]

Happy time ahead. One dolla for sure soon

[Balance]

95c - word must be out about possibility of dividend payment.

How are the traders who sold out 2 weeks ago at 70c feeling? Ouch!

[bull....]

95c - word must be out about possibility of dividend payment.

How are the traders who sold out 2 weeks ago at 70c feeling? Ouch!

I be very surprised if dividend this yr although they could afford 1c next yr could be a lot more in way of divs

[blackcap]

I be very surprised if dividend this yr although they could afford 1c next yr could be a lot more in way of divs

I would rather they wait on paying the dividend. Lets clean up the balance sheet first and get back to some normal profitability before dispersing with excess cash.

[silverblizzard888]

I agree for a business that just had to sell assets to pay down debt and only starting to see good results to start paying a dividend would be a terrible decision and one I'd think less of management if they did. Considering the finance cost is about $4 million a year they would be nuts not to focus on debt payment first.

[Gunny]

News a few days ago stated we do have the biggest building boom ever now.

SP holding around 85-87 before results out in the next few weeks. Have added to my holdings in the last few months raising my average buy price to over 70c. Looking forward to the coming announcement and year ahead.

Gunny

[winner69]

News a few days ago stated we do have the biggest building boom ever now.

SP holding around 85-87 before results out in the next few weeks. Have added to my holdings in the last few months raising my average buy price to over 70c. Looking forward to the coming announcement and year ahead.

Gunny

Biggest building boom has been going foe several years - while missing out so far Cav might catch the end of it

Ramping up synthetics - from the radio this morning

http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=201810795

[macduffy]

CAV's CEO speaking on RadioNZ this morning about the market's trend to synthetic carpets.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=201810795

[winner69]

Cavalier Bremworth Most trusted carpet brand in NZ 2016

Readers Digest survey

Good eh

[Jinx]

http://www.newshub.co.nz/business/smog-into-diamonds-unusual-recycling-schemes-2016080315#axzz4G1Req34Y

A nice little ecofriendly plug :)

[bull....]

News a few days ago stated we do have the biggest building boom ever now.

SP holding around 85-87 before results out in the next few weeks. Have added to my holdings in the last few months raising my average buy price to over 70c. Looking forward to the coming announcement and year ahead.

Gunny

yes biggest now but not the biggest ever that is coming anyway some more news

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1608/S00164/cavalier-bremworth-signals-reinvention.htm

anyway back to waiting for boe

[Gunny]

Result out on the 26th next Friday, last update was the upper level of profit after tax guidance in the range of $3.0 to $5.0 million. I would also prefer they pay down debt at this stage but the directors report suggests they will start divi's sooner than later.

Looking forward to result.

Gunny

[bull....]

Result out on the 26th next Friday, last update was the upper level of profit after tax guidance in the range of $3.0 to $5.0 million. I would also prefer they pay down debt at this stage but the directors report suggests they will start divi's sooner than later.

Looking forward to result.

Gunny


looks like they are leaving it to 4.59pm Friday lol

[777]

Was at 1601 last year. So in an hour.


Out now.

Top end of range and no dividend.

[blackcap]

$6.3m slightly ahead of forecast and outlook looking good too with update at the AGM on 22Nov.
No dividend this year (will that affect the shareprice?) but slight concerns about high KIWI to AUD and so better to be prudent.
Im with them on that one.
And the best bit:
"The Company has reduced net bank debt by $17 million (from $54 million to $37
million) over the financial year. Reducing debt is essential to ensure the
business stays on track and allows us vital headroom to invest in our core
business".

[bull....]

good as expected, I didn't think a div was coming and prefer them to repay debt as it is still to high.
fx rate is a worry as expect it will remain elevated
nz business going good have to have a good read on weekend

[winner69]

Solid enough numbers

Each half year an improvement on previous - that's good

Need to pump up the top line though

[Scrunch]

CAV used to do three dividends pretty much bang, bang, bang (Oct, Dec, Mar). The October and March dividends followed the annual and 6mth results. The odd one was the December dividend - The last few times it was announced along with AGM commentaries.

If they start the year well, there could be a div announcement on the day of the AGM.

[macduffy]

That was then, this is now!

CAV still has much to do to rebuild sales and profitability and reduce debt before they think about resuming dividends. I wouldn't expect anything in that regard for at least another 12 months.