MHJ - Michael Hill International.

[Jim]

Anyone knows if MHI still paying out the 0.015 dividends they supposed to pay out on the 30 September

[MauroNZ]

Anyone knows if MHI still paying out the 0.015 dividends they supposed to pay out on the 30 September


I have not received any notifications and does not shows on NZX site:

https://www.nzx.com/instruments/mhj/dividends

[clearasmud]

Anyone knows if MHI still paying out the 0.015 dividends they supposed to pay out on the 30 September
They have postponed it a further year.

[Ltw]

Share seems to be strengthening, not sure on what's driving it but it's certainly welcome

[nztx]

They have postponed it a further year.

Will they be paying interest for a year on top ?

[nztx]

Thanks guys.
I also cut my losses twice on Mpg.
Shame on me.
Sum, Hlg and Ift have been good to me.
I also tripled down on Tra and dropped my ave from 280 to 200

did something similar on a few holdings here too .. TRA HLG SUM have been good here too

[clearasmud]

Hasn't Sum been a wonderful stock. Must be great management.
I hope MHJ are as good.
We shall see.

[winner69]

All going well at Michael Hill and management seem pleased as punch with progress

Got to be reflected in share price soon

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/361417/332840.pdf

[Ltw]

All going well at Michael Hill and management seem pleased as punch with progress

Got to be reflected in share price soon

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/361417/332840.pdf

Wow that pretty good considering

[blackcap]

Wow that pretty good considering

Surely will be able to pay that dividend sooner now..... waiting waiting.

[clearasmud]

If they can get to a 3c divi the Aussies may push this back to 1.50

[Bjauck]

All going well at Michael Hill and management seem pleased as punch with progress

Got to be reflected in share price soon

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/361417/332840.pdf

I was very surprised that same store sales were only down by about 4% in value from same period last year.

[Lease]

I was very surprised that same store sales were only down by about 4% in value from same period last year.

Underperformed stores are all closed. The remaining stores are all resilient.

[Ltw]

I see the online sales continuing to grow to a point where it lifts the stores game and any underperforming ones being shut.
In these crazy times that's what we want to see. A sound business model.

[MauroNZ]

All going well at Michael Hill and management seem pleased as punch with progress

Got to be reflected in share price soon

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/361417/332840.pdf

Thanks for sharing winner.

[sb9]

Took position onto this one, could be great performer leading upto Xmas season with people having decent amount of discretionary money in lieu if overseas travel and expensive holidays.

ASM in couple of weeks on 27th Oct would shed more light on when they can resume divvy.

[Ltw]

Took position onto this one, could be great performer leading upto Xmas season with people having decent amount of discretionary money in lieu if overseas travel and expensive holidays.

ASM in couple of weeks on 27th Oct would shed more light on when they can resume divvy.

Anyone think they will give out a early divvy for Christmas?

[sb9]

Anyone think they will give out a early divvy for Christmas?

If trading conditions improve and balance sheet permitting, I would say they could. But in all honesty think they would probably declare one at next reporting period.

[GR8DAY]

Took position onto this one, could be great performer leading upto Xmas season with people having decent amount of discretionary money in lieu if overseas travel and expensive holidays.

ASM in couple of weeks on 27th Oct would shed more light on when they can resume divvy.

.......same. Picked up 20k this morning as a starter, something to build upon . Not too concerned about divvy or not but 60c plus SP would be an OK Xmas pressy.

[sb9]

Aussies pushing it higher and big volumes crossing here...



54
2,000,000
12:18
SP

[GR8DAY]

Aussies pushing it higher and big volumes crossing here...



54
2,000,000
12:18
SP



......value seen.

[Ltw]

Someones put a rocket under it

[MauroNZ]

back to prices of early March, hopefully it will sustain.

[Getty]

Don't be surprised to see the Briscoe Group to feature in the conversation soon...

[sb9]

Closed on ASX at almost equal to NZ 60c, augurs well for more blue skies in days leading upto ASM on Wed 21st.

[GR8DAY]

.....ozzy onto it. 60c coming up faster than I predicted. Could easily run through if further interest is shown ...... maybe 70c now for Xmas?

[Getty]

62c now on reasonable volume.
Nice wee rise from 23c 12 month low.

The diamond is getting dusted off...

[sb9]

Closed on ASX at almost equal to NZ 60c, augurs well for more blue skies in days leading upto ASM on Wed 21st.

Apologies, the ASM is actually on Tue 27th Oct.

[Ltw]

Is AGM still going?
Any of you able to share anything?

[The diver]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/men-armed-with-hammers-rob-michael-hill-store-at-aucklands-at-northwest-shopping-centre/2TU2PEPDMVB3LV2KSLTVAPCGFE/

[peat]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/men-armed-with-hammers-rob-michael-hill-store-at-aucklands-at-northwest-shopping-centre/2TU2PEPDMVB3LV2KSLTVAPCGFE/


wow freaky, but insurance....
is it likely to stop people shopping at the Hill. Nah.....

[Bjauck]

wow freaky, but insurance....
is it likely to stop people shopping at the Hill. Nah..... Maybe mask wearing men are welcomed into shops these days.

[sb9]

A very positive trading update, may be heading to 70c range soon..

• Maintained strong same store sales growth in all markets and channels – Same store sales for the 22 week period were up 7.9%, against last year. Same store sales for the October/November period were up 8.5%, against last year.
• Sustained margin improvement – Margin growth of ~200 bps for the 22 week period, against last year, underpinning an increase in gross profit.
• Continued strong growth in digital sales and margin – All markets achieved a significant lift in sales, resulting in online sales increasing by 110% for the 22 week period, against last year.


Despite temporary store closures and ongoing foot traffic impacts on the key Christmas trading period, it is currently anticipated the Company is likely to deliver an EBIT result for FY21H1 materially exceeding the prior year half one result (FY20H1: $31.6m), before taking into account the favorable impact of wage subsidies and AASB 16 Leases.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Technical breakout of 63 confirming end of weekly consolidation and continuation of uptrend. Next target 75c.

[Lease]

Extremely impressed today's trading update.

[flyinglizard]

The retail business has not affected by delayed shipment and port disaster. I guess that they use air freight parcel to get inventory which are very small and lightweight.

[biker]

Sharesies crowd have arrived here too ( see PEB )
14 buyers for 4247 shares

[sb9]

Technical breakout of 63 confirming end of weekly consolidation and continuation of uptrend. Next target 75c.

Real action will happen in about an hour or so when ASX opens...

[MauroNZ]

wow, when I checked this morning was in 0.57 and now 0.63.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Pullback to retest support provided a very good entry for those who weren't yet in. 1.4 million traded offmarket at 64 after close so all looking very good for a confirmed breakout and a run to 75c resistance.

[clearasmud]

This used to be a big loser but not anymore.
Tell Mr or Mrs Hill we want a 7c special dividend next year.
I

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Spheria expecting A$1.50-2.00 in the next 12 months, with EBIT around $60m a year. Should be another 10+% dividend stock at this price.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/sydney-fund-manager-extolls-michael-hill-international

[MauroNZ]

Spheria expecting A$1.50-2.00 in the next 12 months, with EBIT around $60m a year. Should be another 10+% dividend stock at this price.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/sydney-fund-manager-extolls-michael-hill-international

Unfortunately I can't read it as is paywalled.

[Rawz]

Nice bump up today, currently at $0.69. Seems to have finally cracked the $0.65 ceiling. Next stop $0.75?

[percy]

It is Hobson Wealth's stock of the week.
!2 month target price $1.00.

[MauroNZ]

It is Hobson Wealth's stock of the week.
!2 month target price $1.00.

That would be nice to see. Are you buying Percy?.

[nztx]

Meanwhile the further deferred already deferred 1.5 cps Div declared 12 March 2020 remains unpaid
as an interest free shareholder loan to this outfit until 30 Sep 2021

Absolutely no reason why MHJ can't front up with what they should have paid out long before now
given trading must have picked up out of sight now

Far more credible retailing stocks elsewhere, who don't resort to the 'defer defer then ignore' tactics IMO ;)

[percy]

That would be nice to see. Are you buying Percy?.

No.I am basically out of the market at present.
Still working on the daughter's housing.
Also worries me that every time I walk past their store, at either Northlands or Riccarton they do not have any customers.

[Beau]

My Daughter-in-law works at jewellery store in Canterbury and since covid lockdown they have been busy and at the present time they are doing the best in years, some expensive purchases happening even top range.

[MauroNZ]

No.I am basically out of the market at present.
Still working on the daughter's housing.
Also worries me that every time I walk past their store, at either Northlands or Riccarton they do not have any customers.

Got it, all the best with that.
It seems some random stores like in North City Porirua only a few shoppers around.

[MauroNZ]

My Daughter-in-law works at jewellery store in Canterbury and since covid lockdown they have been busy and at the present time they are doing the best in years, some expensive purchases happening even top range.

Thanks for sharing that.

[ratkin]

My Daughter-in-law works at jewellery store in Canterbury and since covid lockdown they have been busy and at the present time they are doing the best in years, some expensive purchases happening even top range.

Interesting, the one in South City chch closed down, just an empty store now. Obviously was not doing that well.

[Rawz]

MHJ have been closing these non performing stores for awhile now. Good! Their website is impressive + loyalty scheme = 110% online sales growth on previous corresponding period. Cost base much much lower when selling online VS a store = 200bp margin growth on previous corresponding period. COVID stops travel, travel money going to some jewelry purchases maybe? Their last update: "it is currentlyanticipated the Company is likely to deliver an EBIT result for FY21H1 materially exceeding the prior year half one result(FY20H1: $31.6m), before taking into account the favorable impact of wage subsidies and AASB 16 Leases."

Rob Fyfe purchased $450k worth of shares in Sep, on market. Jacqueline Naylor purchased $50k. I brought when I saw them buying and have MHJ as one of my top 5 picks for 2021 :t_up: $1+ isn't unreasonable. Start of an uptrend?

[kiora]

Good catch Rawz. More like half way through uptrend
https://stocknessmonster.com/charts/mhj.nzx/

[bull....]

ive owned micheal hill shares for 25 years , a very small holding though so its good to hear they are doing good

[Rawz]

MHJ sp has continued on its march, currently at $0.74. Would be good to see it clear $0.75 and then continue on to $0.80. I have a value on them of $1.06 when playing around with a spreadsheet. Based on 15% growth in EBITDA for FH21 and revenue in line with last year (due to the store closures). The model assumes a very conservative 3% growth rate for 10 years which they seem to do, with ease, on a same store level. I'm just not sure how many non performing stores are yet to be closed with the transition to online- huge YoY online sales growth expected to continue- which of course has far better margins.

Gosh I love MHJ. Such a simple business to understand and people have been buying precious metals/stones to wear for thousands of years so I can't see it changing. I see them as a brand sitting above Pascoe's and I guess just below Walker and Hall. A nice mainstream spot in the market.

There is no reason they can't pay a 6cent divvy this year- 8% gross in this low yield environment!! Low/no debt. I do like. Just as long as they don't do another big expansion like the failed USA acquisition post GFC. Stick to NZ/AUS/Canada which has ample growth opportunities ahead.

First purchased at $0.33. 9% of my portfolio. Looking forward to Feb FH21 update. DYOR

[winner69]

Cool jeweller is James Alfredson Jewellers in Melbourne

Love visiting him when over there .. even opens after hours for me ...must be one of his good customers

[winner69]

Amazing update

Should be a great day for MHJ share pricn

Might get close to a buck soom

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/366233/338817.pdf

[Beau]

Yes great to see onwards and upwards.

[percy]

Amazing update

Should be a great day for MHJ share pricn

Might get close to a buck soom

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/366233/338817.pdf

An excellent result.
Still a lot of growth to be achieved online.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Absolutely MASSIVE trading update.

30-40% pcp EBIT growth. 150-250bps margin expansion. Dividend finally being distributed.

Look at the financials and you'll see this is in for a serious re-rating. If they can sustain this then Spheria's expectation of $1.50-2.00 isn't unrealistic. I see this easily in the $0.90-1.00 range in the short term (unless ACC keeps trimming).

Disc: hold.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

The 1.4m shorts on the ASX might feel a bit of pressure today!

[Rawz]

This is an amazing trading update and includes periods of store closures (28 Melbourne stores reopened late Oct, 9 other Aussie stores closed for a short period and 21 Canadian stores closed since Nov).

The online sales growth is huge and margins will only get better with this growth. They possibly don't have anymore non performing stores as no stores were permanently closed. Inflection point???

This is heading to $1.

[winner69]

“Amazing”, “great”, “excellent”, “absolutely MASSIVE” and another ‘amazing’ so update must have been pretty good.

Not good stuff all sales growth in NZ ...and strange that Q2 appears to have been weaker than Q1 in NZ

Never mind it’s the HEADLINES that matter ....no need to look at the detail as knowledge is superfluous in acrosring bull market.

[Lease]

I have to admit MHJ have not disappointed me.:t_up:

[Rawz]

“Amazing”, “great”, “excellent”, “absolutely MASSIVE” and another ‘amazing’ so update must have been pretty good.

Not good stuff all sales growth in NZ ...and strange that Q2 appears to have been weaker than Q1 in NZ

Never mind it’s the HEADLINES that matter ....no need to look at the detail as knowledge is superfluous in acrosring bull market.

NZ same store grew 2.8% FY21H1. Not "amazing" but when margin increases 150-250bp it is AMAZING:p . I'm sure some heavy discounting promo's would have seen higher same store sales but eroded margins..

NZ Q2 sales 44m (same store)
NZ H1 sales 68.4
= NZ Q1 sales 24m?

[nztx]

Good to see MHJ finally come clean & cut loose the deferred previously deferred March 2020 Div they put the stops on..

about time too after their posturing on better recent trading in past weeks .. ;)

Probably wouldn't consider buying these again .. far better fish to fry elsewhere ..

[winner69]

The details in the devil they say and I've updated a model I had i couple of years ago before I gave up on them.

Today's announcement - narrative is good but the numbers aren't that good. OK, there's extenuating circumstances like covid stuff and they say they are still in turn around mode but its hardly an inspiring story

I reckon that even at current share price there's still a lot of hope of things coming right

In nztx camp ..... put it this way even if MHJ share price doubles others will have more than doubled.

[clearasmud]

The details in the devil they say and I've updated a model I had i couple of years ago before I gave up on them.

Today's announcement - narrative is good but the numbers aren't that good. OK, there's extenuating circumstances like covid stuff and they say they are still in turn around mode but its hardly an inspiring story

I reckon that even at current share price there's still a lot of hope of things coming right

In nztx camp ..... put it this way even if MHJ share price doubles others will have more than doubled.
What your model saying in regards to free cash flow or net profit? Thanks.

[winner69]

What your model saying in regards to free cash flow or net profit? Thanks.

DCF comes in about 50 cents ....... extremely bullish case about 70 cents (hence my comment about heaps of hope built into share price)

Yes these are turbulent times and MHJ could go anywhere.

I think H1 sales are really disappointing. There's been no catch up on the so called $80m of lost sales in H220 - other retailers have all had a decent amount of catch up)

But essentially I just can't see enough in the outlook to justify the current share price when its book value is about 40 cents

[clearasmud]

DCF comes in about 50 cents ....... extremely bullish case about 70 cents (hence my comment about heaps of hope built into share price)

Yes these are turbulent times and MHJ could go anywhere.

I think H1 sales are really disappointing. There's been no catch up on the so called $80m of lost sales in H220 - other retailers have all had a decent amount of catch up)

But essentially I just can't see enough in the outlook to justify the current share price when its book value is about 40 cents
I'm seeing potentially 40 million a year profit, 10c/share and 8c dividend. Agree?
Only done a quick study.

[Rawz]

I might need to re look at my model, when looking at previous years results it does depend on what you add back. All the past store closures and resulting impairments.. i added back $8m last year for example. No store closures this year, maybe..

Anyways, I'm potentially seeing a FY21; $31m NPAT, 8c eps, 7 cent dividend (9% gross yield). P/E 9.9. DCF comes out at $1.03 for me.

Management are hitting their cost saving targets with another $5m to be realized They are pivoting to a more modern retailer with an omni-channel customer offering- way ahead of the other jewelry chains. If we see continued margin improvement and continued same store sales growth shareholders are going to be receiving some impressive dividends in the years to come. And don't forget the super strong balance sheet.

I'm a happy holder. Average buy in is low 40cents so easier for me I guess.

[clearasmud]

Yea I'm mid 40's, been buying in the way up.
Appreciate your comments.

[MauroNZ]

I completely forgot about the dividend paid today :).

[winner69]

I completely forgot about the dividend paid today :).

Better shout yourself something nice

[Rawz]

Yes buy something nice. Like some more MHJ shares :)

[MauroNZ]

Better shout yourself something nice

Is not a lot so I was thinking maybe buy some SPK :).

[clearasmud]

Is not a lot so I was thinking maybe buy some SPK :).
6c drop. Was their ebit anno
uncement of 43m confusing because it includes the "interest" part of the rent?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Good bounce off the weekly 12ema which has been acting as support. Looks like the larger money is back buying on market. Expecting potential for 10% dividends at current price.

[Beau]

Good bounce off the weekly 12ema which has been acting as support. Looks like the larger money is back buying on market. Expecting potential for 10% dividends at current price.
Need another good bounce and some ;)

[Rawz]

The cats out of the bag, share price up 6.8% today.
Results out in 2 days.

[sb9]

The cats out of the bag, share price up 6.8% today.
Results out in 2 days.

Back to 2.5c divvy perhaps or bit more as there wasn't one for end of FY20.

[Rawz]

Back to 2.5c divvy perhaps or bit more as there wasn't one for end of FY20.

No reason we can't see 2.5c divvy. Each half..
Should see EPS over 7.5c

Super strong balance sheet. No reason for them to retain a lot of earnings

[Beau]

The cats out of the bag, share price up 6.8% today.
Results out in 2 days.

Are results Wednesday morning didn’t see any announcement. Good to see sudden interest.

[MauroNZ]

It seems a lot of excitement before the results. Hopefully is something promising.

[Rawz]

Hopefully Wednesday morning we see a $30m+ profit

[Beau]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/368079

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/368079


Amazing result

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Intentions to return to dividends of what would be ~10% gross at current prices once risk of shutdowns is over.

[percy]

Figures do not make sense to me.
Operating revenue ie sales $319,884
Employee benefits $80,562 ...25.18% of sales..I would think they should be approx 15%
Occupancy costs $11,374 or just 3.55%.I would think they also should be about 15%plus of revenue.

[Rawz]

Very good result, not sure how much the wage subsidies of $14.7m from NZ, Aus and Canada lifted the profit to $39m? Because that number is outrageously high.

In the entire NZX MHJ has to be one of the best bets for a 2 year investment. Looks like we are past the non- performing store closures. It's onwards and upwards from here.
And all through the store closures phase they have posted continued same store growth. Margins increasing even with them absorbing the increase in price of gold. Margins can still increase another 200bps to get back to historical levels of just under 65%.

The best part for me is: "I’m encouraged by the strong start to H2 with same store sales for the group of +11% for the first eight weeks"

Going forward the dividend is going to have to be more than 1.5cents or they will end up with a truck load of cash on the balance sheet.

[Moneyman]

Employee benefits will be grossed up for Jobkeeper top up payments. The employer in AU the employer pass on the full benefit to the employee so wages costs higher offset by subsidy income.

[MauroNZ]

Figures do not make sense to me.
Operating revenue ie sales $319,884
Employee benefits $80,562 ...25.18% of sales..I would think they should be approx 15%
Occupancy costs $11,374 or just 3.55%.I would think they also should be about 15%plus of revenue.

Percy is that based on passed percentages?.

[Beau]

Intentions to return to dividends of what would be ~10% gross at current prices once risk of shutdowns is over.
Great result under very trying circumstances, bit down on dividend but cash on hand as you say to help get through. Looking solid for future and increased dividends.

[winner69]

Figures do not make sense to me.
Operating revenue ie sales $319,884
Employee benefits $80,562 ...25.18% of sales..I would think they should be approx 15%
Occupancy costs $11,374 or just 3.55%.I would think they also should be about 15%plus of revenue.

Percy - most of 'lease' costs show up in depreciation and finance oosts

Not quite clear as to how they treat this but occupancy costs as how you and I see them are somewhere between 10% and 15% of sales

[winner69]

Figures do not make sense to me.
Operating revenue ie sales $319,884
Employee benefits $80,562 ...25.18% of sales..I would think they should be approx 15%
Occupancy costs $11,374 or just 3.55%.I would think they also should be about 15%plus of revenue.

The people costs % is about the same as last year - for the full year they have been 29% to 30%

THE $80,562 is what they paid staff - Jobkeeper subsidies $17m show under Other Revenue - so they recovered some of the down time.

MHJ people costs have always been much higher than other retailers. WE've discussed before and one bright spark said that it may include the jewellery makers wages (production as opposed to selling ....or managing ha ha). I have no idea if this is true but seems a reasonable explanation.

[winner69]

Percy ...occupancy costs (including leases) were $28m by looks of it.

[sb9]

Deleted, not relevant.

[Rawz]

MHJ touched a low of $0.68 today. Lucky whoever got a few at that price. Has since swung back to $0.71.

Should get a Q3 trading update within the next 2 weeks.

Hoping to see:
- Margins over 63%
- Same store sales up over 10%
- Online sales continuing its 100% pcp growth

Have been accumulating and MHJ is now my biggest holding :)

[Habits]

MHJ touched a low of $0.68 today. Lucky whoever got a few at that price. Has since swung back to $0.71.

Should get a Q3 trading update within the next 2 weeks.

Hoping to see:
- Margins over 63%
- Same store sales up over 10%
- Online sales continuing its 100% pcp growth

Have been accumulating and MHJ is now my biggest holding :)

I like the company, always have. Michael Hill should be sir

[sb9]

I like the company, always have. Michael Hill should be sir

Got bit more in when divvy got paid out last month due to lower NZD at that time.

Looking forward to the trading update and see how things are tracking.

[sb9]

Few large off-market crossings today..



70.5
1,000,000
11:25
SP




70.5
800,000
14:55
SP


70.5
1,177,552
14:42
SP




70.5
400,000
15:14
SP

[MauroNZ]

Few large off-market crossings today..



70.5
1,000,000
11:25
SP




70.5
800,000
14:55
SP


70.5
1,177,552
14:42
SP




70.5
400,000
15:14
SP




Highest volume since Sept 20, are we missing any news or just pure anticipation to the trading update?.

[Rawz]

I always get excited when I see big volume traded. But then I remember for every buyer there is a seller

[winner69]

As long as Mr Fyfe is buying its all fine

[Bjauck]

Computershare NZ produce an end of year tax summary - for a fee. Would that include the figures for the NZ listed shares of Australian companies such as Michael Hill? I think Link NZ include figures for their NZ listings of Australian companies in their tax pack.

[sb9]

Looks like ACC have been offloading their stake as noted over past few days, they've just over 5% holding or another 20 odd mln shares. Will they continue to offload or give it a pause?

[sb9]

Looks like ACC have been offloading their stake as noted over past few days, they've just over 5% holding or another 20 odd mln shares. Will they continue to offload or give it a pause?

As per ASX release later on Friday, Spheria might have bought off ACC.

[Beau]

Must be some good news coming a good bit of interest being shown.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Interesting price action for sure. Decent on market volume backing it up too.

[Rawz]

The share price is just returning to a semi reasonable level in my opinion. There was plenty of buying opportunities during march around and under 70cents, hope MHJ supporters topped up- I sure did :) To be fair anything under 80 cents is a gift :t_up:

The next trading update for Q3 will be interesting and perhaps word has gotten out that it is going to be a goodie, hence the recent 10% SP increase.

Market screener has 3 analysts saying $40m np this year. 10 cents EPS. Forward P/E of 7.5! We could get a big divvy later this year, 5 cents would be a huge jump from the last few years but given how much cash they will be making + the squeaky clean balance sheet it wouldn't be unreasonable. Would give a total dividend of 6.5cents including the interim.

We are heading to $1 per share which would get us almost to a 10 P/E. Enjoy the ride and GLTAH

[Habits]

I was stupid and bought at a recent peak but did buy some more at 71.... thanks for the info Rawz

[sb9]

78.5
2,780,000
11:41
SP



ACC might be off-loading more at slightly higher price.

[Rawz]

78.5
2,780,000
11:41
SP



ACC might be off-loading more at slightly higher price.

ACC giving away golden tickets? Get in while you can before Spheria takes them all

[JohnnyTheHorse]

This is very unusual trading.

[sb9]

This is very unusual trading.

Looks as though some fund (may be Spheria) is happy to pay up bit more to get their stake...

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Looks as though some fund (may be Spheria) is happy to pay up bit more to get their stake...

It just doesn’t really make sense that they would be chasing it so hard and so fast, especially because it traded at volume around 70 for so long. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a speeding ticket if this keeps up.

[Rawz]

It just doesn’t really make sense that they would be chasing it so hard and so fast, especially because it traded at volume around 70 for so long. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a speeding ticket if this keeps up.

But the volume around 70 was nothing. If somebody wants a big stake its only natural that the price will be forced up. 52 week high previously was 82 cents so we have only just hit that. Time for another run up to 90cents and then we will be one more jump to the no growth p/e of 10 at $1 :t_up:

[Habits]

But the volume around 70 was nothing. If somebody wants a big stake its only natural that the price will be forced up. 52 week high previously was 82 cents so we have only just hit that. Time for another run up to 90cents and then we will be one more jump to the no growth p/e of 10 at $1 :t_up:

F/y ends 30 June so Im expecting another profit upgrade before then :t_up:

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Closed at the equivalent of NZ85c on ASX. Was there a large broker upgrade?

[sb9]

Closed at the equivalent of NZ85c on ASX. Was there a large broker upgrade?

Someone might know something material that's not out in public domain yet, may not be leaky ship but could well be insightful research. Or simply taking a big punt...

[winner69]

Someone might know something material that's not out in public domain yet, may not be leaky ship but could well be insightful research. Or simply taking a big punt...

Sales going gangbusters

AUD movement seems to impact total results on consolidated basis

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/370679/344176.pdf

[sb9]

Sales going gangbusters

AUD movement seems to impact total results on consolidated basis

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/370679/344176.pdf

Pretty robust numbers in there, no wonder sp was strong over last few days..

[MauroNZ]

Sales going gangbusters

AUD movement seems to impact total results on consolidated basis

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/370679/344176.pdf

Thanks Winner.

I can't remember double-digit sales growth in the last 5 years.

After we came out from lockdown last year I was feeling like eating out more frequently. So I wonder if around the world people coming out of lockdown or coming back into it make them spend more "to feel better". The 93.3% year to date increase in online sales is very interesting and likely to happen according to the covid-19 effect of online shopping.

[Rawz]

We going to get my $1 per share sooner than I thought 😃

[winner69]

We going to get my $1 per share sooner than I thought 😃

Certainly are

And then we can look forward to $1.50

[winner69]

Best htin about the Q3 is it showed greater growth than previous quarter - unlike Q2 growth being less than Q1 (in %age terms)

Good momentum

[sb9]

More volume being transacted at higher highs, looks like clean run into a buck very soon..

[MauroNZ]

September 2018 last time closing at 0.90, interesting!.

[winner69]

I reckon MHJ is going to do a WHS ..everything sorted and increased sales and margin flow through to the bottom ...and share price booms

Rawz - that means 2 bucks mid year

[MauroNZ]

I reckon MHJ is going to do a WHS ..everything sorted and increased sales and margin flow through to the bottom ...and share price booms

Rawz - that means 2 bucks mid year

Please don't remind me about WHS as I sold out early after years holding at a loss...and then it recovered.

Still holding a few thousand shares of MHJ which I'm happy to keep holding them. Would be nice to have a bit of dividend increase.

[sb9]

As expected ACC been doing selling. Now that they're under 5% threshold and don't need to report transactions any more. They still have about 18mln odd shares under their fold, expect price to be subdued until they sell out completely.

[Rawz]

I reckon MHJ is going to do a WHS ..everything sorted and increased sales and margin flow through to the bottom ...and share price booms

Rawz - that means 2 bucks mid year

I agree W69. The retailers that will be successful in this day n age are those that shrink their store numbers but balance it with excellent click n collect systems, destination stores AND an awesome website!

Got to give MHJ management credit as they were ahead of the curve ball shrinking the store numbers before covid hit. Covid just sped up the process. Last qrt only 1 'non performing' store closed and prior to that none by memory. Looks like we are at the end of that road or very close to it. The one off write offs will be coming to an end. The sales from the closed stores have been transferring to the remaining stores or going through the website with same store sales constantly growing yoy and online sales growing 100% yoy for a number of reporting periods. And with less rents, store mangers, sales staff, inventory etc etc GP margins have gone from 60% to 63% and will get close to 65% imo.

The retailers that don't adjust will get eaten alive by Amazon, Alibaba etc.

ACC sell down - Do not worry about that as they purchased 4.1m shares last year for around 35 cents taking their stake at the time from 24.6m to 28.7m so are just selling their 100%+ gains and rebalancing their holding. Poor suckers are probably forced to sell the hottest stock in town (:p:t_up:) because of some internal limit guidelines/mandate

[Habits]

F/y ends 30 June so Im expecting another profit upgrade before then :t_up:

I did NOT expect that prediction yesterday to be fulfilled so soon ... this morning. Next FY2021 upgrade probably by this time mid July. Lets see about that

[Louisphan]

As per Forsythbarr as at 16.04.2021

Earnings: We make limited changes to our FY21 forecasts. Recent performance provides further confidence in management's ability to grow earnings, we lift FY22 and FY23 NPAT estimates +8.0% and +9.8% respectively.
Target price: Our target price increases +15cps to NZ$1.02 on the back of earnings changes and higher peer multiples.

[Rawz]

As per Forsythbarr as at 16.04.2021

Earnings: We make limited changes to our FY21 forecasts. Recent performance provides further confidence in management's ability to grow earnings, we lift FY22 and FY23 NPAT estimates +8.0% and +9.8% respectively.
Target price: Our target price increases +15cps to NZ$1.02 on the back of earnings changes and higher peer multiples.



Good to see Forbars joining the $1 sp party :)

[winner69]

Spheria betting the farm on MHJ - over 50 million shares now - I believe one of their biggest holdings

Wonder what happened to their foray into MHI at the turn of the century

[sb9]

Spheria betting the farm on MHJ - over 50 million shares now - I believe one of their biggest holdings

Wonder what happened to their foray into MHI at the turn of the century

I think those holdings' are spread across 6 different registered holders, of which RBC Investor Services Trust have increased their stake by large amount.

[Ltw]

As per Forsythbarr as at 16.04.2021

Earnings: We make limited changes to our FY21 forecasts. Recent performance provides further confidence in management's ability to grow earnings, we lift FY22 and FY23 NPAT estimates +8.0% and +9.8% respectively.
Target price: Our target price increases +15cps to NZ$1.02 on the back of earnings changes and higher peer multiples.



Slowly but surely its getting there. I was in a local shop over the weekend and it was humming, the staff where also very knowledgeable and helpful.

[sb9]

Nice to see Rob Fyfe being given reign of Chair and CEO Daniel Bracken joining the Board.

[Rawz]

Nice to see Rob Fyfe being given reign of Chair and CEO Daniel Bracken joining the Board.

Rob Fyfe. Top man. Glad he is at the helm. Remember when he purchased $200k worth of shares during covid. Good stuff.

[Ltw]

Nice bump today long may it continue. Company has a lot going for it in the current environment.
Quick question with the POG returning to an upward trend does this help MHJ?

[Rawz]

Nice bump today long may it continue. Company has a lot going for it in the current environment.
Quick question with the POG returning to an upward trend does this help MHJ?

Assuming POG means 'price of gold' and not 'person other than a grunt' which is what google told me it could mean lol..

Typically higher prices of gold is not good for jewelry co's. Tougher to sell higher priced gold chains and rings I guess.

[Ltw]

Assuming POG means 'price of gold' and not 'person other than a grunt' which is what google told me it could mean lol..

Typically higher prices of gold is not good for jewelry co's. Tougher to sell higher priced gold chains and rings I guess.

LOL. Yes mate Price Of Gold.
My line of thought was: because they stock a lot of gold there inventory value would go up and naturally as the POG increases so dose there sales.
I did also notice that when the POG sky rocketed a few years back MHJ SP kind of followed suit. Why that was I'm not quite sure

[clearasmud]

LOL. Yes mate Price Of Gold.
My line of thought was: because they stock a lot of gold there inventory value would go up and naturally as the POG increases so dose there sales.
I did also notice that when the POG sky rocketed a few years back MHJ SP kind of followed suit. Why that was I'm not quite sure

What do we care, the chart is beautiful, Michael Hill has never been doing better and that includes when the share price was double. Dividends have been over 3c so that should soon be surpassed.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Nice bull flag on the weekly/monthly chart looking for confirmation with a break of 90 cents. Large crossings were going through yesterday at 90c which has got my attention.

Still maintain my long term holding and looking to add trading position if it looks like 90 cents will break.

[Ltw]

I keep adding in the dips as i see it break the 90c barrier very soon. Some good volume through yesterday and last week a couple of larger orders to.
Good times :t_up:

[Ltw]

:t_up: WOW we might even see it broken today!! looked at it this morning and thought maybe in the next week or two it might jump over 90 cents. I'm now wondering if well see it over a dollar by the end of the year or even before....

[sb9]

:t_up: WOW we might even see it broken today!! looked at it this morning and thought maybe in the next week or two it might jump over 90 cents. I'm now wondering if well see it over a dollar by the end of the year or even before....

Q4 trading update next month will set the tone further price movement and also divvy payout at FY results time in Aug will give better picture.

[Ltw]

Keeps looking better - I look forward to the update sb9

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Nice bull flag on the weekly/monthly chart looking for confirmation with a break of 90 cents. Large crossings were going through yesterday at 90c which has got my attention.

Still maintain my long term holding and looking to add trading position if it looks like 90 cents will break.

Still grinding it out at that resistance zone. Depth looks like the bulls are making headway, but lets see if we can get that solid break to push to $1.00.

[sb9]

Still grinding it out at that resistance zone. Depth looks like the bulls are making headway, but lets see if we can get that solid break to push to $1.00.

Low volume push up on ASX at close y'day to AU 88c, which is about NZ 95c.

[Rawz]

The joy of it. My biggest holding back around the $0.70 mark. Now way overweight ;)

Won't be trimming until the boarders are fully re-opened
or
GP margins hit 65%. At 65% they are probably redlining



MHJ touched a low of $0.68 today. Lucky whoever got a few at that price. Has since swung back to $0.71.

Should get a Q3 trading update within the next 2 weeks.

Hoping to see:
- Margins over 63%
- Same store sales up over 10%
- Online sales continuing its 100% pcp growth

Have been accumulating and MHJ is now my biggest holding :)

[winner69]

Another hold up / burglary

Seems a common occurrence

Probably reflects Michael Hills huge market presence

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/300349280/michael-hill-thieves-likely-made-off-with-100k-in-jewellery-and-watches

[clearasmud]

Another hold up / burglary

Seems a common occurrence

Probably reflects Michael Hills huge market presence

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/300349280/michael-hill-thieves-likely-made-off-with-100k-in-jewellery-and-watches

Winner, this is a sign that jewelry is in big demand at the moment.

[sb9]

Winner, this is a sign that jewelry is in big demand at the moment.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/michael-hill-jewellery-shop-robbery-police-release-photos-of-suspects/5P2UR4QEKBHKRW56XGWKDWOXRQ/

Looks like they got very clear images of the robbers.

92c proving to be big resistance currently. Hopefully upcoming trading update should break that through.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Q4 update should be out in the next day or two. Given spending figures over previous months I am expecting a strong result. Covid situation in Australia may start slowing things down though, but probably offset by Canada opening back up. Tightening on the chart continues so is well positioned for a move once the announcement is released (I can't tell you whether that'll be up or down though).

[Ltw]

I'm Quietly confident JTH, fingers crossed

[JohnnyTheHorse]

At first glance a really solid result given the number of store closures. Net cash position of ~$70m so should enable healthy ongoing dividends. Spheria will be quite happy I'm picking. Let's see if this breaks the consolidation for a push to the $1 psychological level.


“I’m very pleased with our Q4 results – sales growth in all markets, increased margins, and an outstanding performancefrom our bricks and mortar stores delivering almost 20% same store sales growth for the quarter. Setting aside the globalstore network closure in 2020, Michael Hill has now delivered eight consecutive quarters of positive comp sales growth,together with sustained margin expansion.

This performance provides further evidence that our strategic transformation agenda is on track and delivering. We’veseen record digital sales, our loyalty program going from strength to strength, further deployment of omni-channelinitiatives, and continued evolution of our product offering, go-to-market campaigns and retail fundamentals."

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/375746/350440.pdf

[sb9]

At first glance a really solid result given the number of store closures. Net cash position of ~$70m so should enable healthy ongoing dividends. Spheria will be quite happy I'm picking. Let's see if this breaks the consolidation for a push to the $1 psychological level.



http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/375746/350440.pdf

Agree, really solid performance.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Market liking the result so far, up 4.6% (albeit on low volume, however sell depth is very very thin). Testing the 91/92c resistance area. A break should see the quick run to 100.

[winner69]

Solid indeed

Sometimes I think such announcements are met with relief rather than what the metrics say ....like good that things haven't turned to custard

[Ltw]

Fantastic result some solid growth and mazing with the amount of store closed days. very happy :t_up:

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Solid indeed

Sometimes I think such announcements are met with relief rather than what the metrics say ....like good that things haven't turned to custard

Can be a bit like that with companies that disappointed investors for many years eh. Gaining that trust back...

[Rawz]

Margins holding which is nice to see. Still closing stores which I was hoping they were done with. Opened a new one. Management seem to be dialed into the optimal metrics a store should be performing at and if not performing it is cut. Laser focus on costs and margins. Good stuff.

Is it just me or do you kinda need to read their announcements multiple times to get a true picture of how they are going? They like to use same store which is good and then 'All stores' as a measurement, changing/adjusting pcp numbers. Looking forward to seeing the annual report.

Overall things are tracking in the right direction. Management performing exceptionally well. The business is selling as much as 2016 but making twice the profit! How good. $70m in the bank, they could ramp up dividends to 8 cents per share p.a.

[percy]

A very strong result.
Online sales enjoying strong growth,and at only 6.2% of total sales there is plenty of growth to be found in this channel.Should be aiming for 30% of revenue.

[Ltw]

Bit of serous late afternoon volume coming through.

[Waltzing]

its impressive and hopefully more appreciated then HLG (fashion retail) by the market.

[MauroNZ]

Almost 3 years to get back at this price. Still holding but unsure to add more of it.

[clearasmud]

Haven't studied it yet but how could they possibly generate $70m cash in 12 months. (going from net cash of zero in June'20 to $70m in June'21)

[Rawz]

Almost 3 years to get back at this price. Still holding but unsure to add more of it.

They going to do nz$42m profit which is a p/e of 8.50 at nz$0.92.
8cent divvy will give a 9% yield.

Should be over 1 buck soon

[sb9]

Almost 3 years to get back at this price. Still holding but unsure to add more of it.

Have added more few weeks back to my bigger holdings from last year. Looking forward to juicier payout in a months time when they announce FY results.

[winner69]

Haven't studied it yet but how could they possibly generate $70m cash in 12 months. (going from net cash of zero in June'20 to $70m in June'21)

They generated over $90m in first half of year

Cash at December was about $90m …so used some of this up in second half

[JohnnyTheHorse]

They generated over $90m in first half of year

Cash at December was about $90m …so used some of this up in second half

~$5.8m in dividends paid in March... doesn't quite account for it.

[MauroNZ]

Thanks Rawz and sb9 for the comments, I appreciate them.

[sb9]

Big finish at close on ASX at 91c, equates to 96c here. Should crack a buck next week me thinks.

[winner69]

MHJ Cash Flows are intersting

If the H121 free cash flow of $90m is any indication of things going forward then it is really transformational - compared to the past

Even if there were some 'timing differences' and the full year is closer to $70m than $90m its the best position they have been in for years, maybe ever

If things have really changed for the good you'd expect dividends of around 18 cents

[sb9]

MHJ Cash Flows are intersting

If the H121 free cash flow of $90m is any indication of things going forward then it is really transformational - compared to the past

Even if there were some 'timing differences' and the full year is closer to $70m than $90m its the best position they have been in for years, maybe ever

If things have really changed for the good you'd expect dividends of around 18 cents

Wow, what a terrific picture for shareholders. Thanks for that graph. Might hit best price ever in coming months.

[winner69]

Wow, what a terrific picture for shareholders. Thanks for that graph. Might hit best price ever in coming months.

Is pretty good eh sb9 …….they surely are generating heaps of cash ……in difficult times

CASH IS KING ... KEEP AN EYE ON THOSE CASH FLOWS

[FTG]

My apologies in advance if it's already been done on this thread, but I couldn't find. Here's a question.

What, if any, correlation does the weekly MHJ chart show with the POG (priced in USD)?

[winner69]

My apologies in advance if it's already been done on this thread, but I couldn't find. Here's a question.

What, if any, correlation does the weekly MHJ chart show with the POG (priced in USD)?

Very little (if any) correlation ftg ...... best I could get was over the last year a 2% corelation and it was positive while you were probably looking for a negative correlation eh

Conclusion - there are other things besides pog that affect the MHJ share price

[FTG]

Very little (if any) correlation ftg ...... best I could get was over the last year a 2% corelation and it was positive while you were probably looking for a negative correlation eh

Conclusion - there are other things besides pog that affect the MHJ share price

Ok interesting, thanks Winner.
A supplementary question for you. Historically, when MHJ's material costs (POG, POS etc) have trended up or down for a sustained period, has MH maintained GP% at the same level or does that GP% performance tend to correlate with the predominant trend in the bullion market?

PS. Sorry I know, I'm being a slack*rse asking, I should probably just look at the financials for the last decade.

[FTG]

Very little (if any) correlation ftg ...... best I could get was over the last year a 2% corelation and it was positive while you were probably looking for a negative correlation eh

Conclusion - there are other things besides pog that affect the MHJ share price

Ok interesting, thanks Winner.
A supplementary question for you. Historically, when MHJ's material costs (POG, POS etc) have trended up or down for a sustained period, has MH maintained GP% at the same level or does that GP% performance tend to correlate with the predominant trend in the bullion market?

PS. Sorry I know, I'm being a slack*rse asking, I should probably just look at the financials for the last decade.

[winner69]

Ok interesting, thanks Winner.
A supplementary question for you. Historically, when MHJ's material costs (POG, POS etc) have trended up or down for a sustained period, has MH maintained GP% at the same level or does that GP% performance tend to correlate with the predominant trend in the bullion market?

PS. Sorry I know, I'm being a slack*rse asking, I should probably just look at the financials for the last decade.

MHJ Gross Margin % over last 5 years has been pretty consistent - it was down in F20 and they put this down to forex.

So I’d say no correlation between pog / pos and MHJ performance.

They seem to manage to manage their selling prices well enough to manage changes in input costs

Trust them to continue doing this

[FTG]

MHJ Gross Margin % over last 5 years has been pretty consistent - it was down in F20 and they put this down to forex.

So I’d say no correlation between pog / pos and MHJ performance.

They seem to manage to manage their selling prices well enough to manage changes in input costs

Trust them to continue doing this

Thank you Winner. A sign that management have good controls in place.
Albeit being a pure retailer, perhaps they are in the unique position of being more of a price maker rather a price taker?

With POG potentially having come off an extended bull trend, peaking 11 months ago now, it shall be interesting to see how they maintain GP%. Especially if the price of bullion now trends downwards for an extended period, and meanwhile fixed costs continue to rise.
One would think that as the price of Bullion drops customers' pricing expectations would lower too?

[FTG]

Another double up

[Waltzing]

Its looking like a Glassons story..can you have enough? Does MR B hold? Is this the new HLG?

[Rawz]

No you cant hold enough. Top holding. Very happy. Probably hit $1 today. Not much on the sell side

[Waltzing]

"No you cant hold enough"

well done that investor.

[Rawz]

In all seriousness thou, Michael Hill are at the backend of a multi year store rationalization program whilst building an excellent online presence (including a stand alone online only off shoot, which I cannot remember the name of right now, showing were managements thinking is). Their 'Brilliance' membership program has been growing exceptionally well.

Whilst closing down stores the sales seem to have been shifting online or to other nearby stores with incredibly high online sales growth and consistently high same store sales growth. Great for margins when you can sell the same amount with less stores..

The brand brings a reasonable moat in NZ/Aus imo and Canada has a lot of growth ahead of it.

Overall management seem to be dialed into what is needed to make an individual store tick, I have a lot of confidence in management and with Rob Fyfe recently moving to chairman of the board (with a big shareholding) I am even more confident in this turn around story.

[Waltzing]

Great commentary and i can see a gold plated dog collar in that story somewhere... cant Mr B?

[winner69]

C’mon guys ….make it break through the $1 mark

Won’t cost too much

[MauroNZ]

MHJ Cash Flows are intersting

If the H121 free cash flow of $90m is any indication of things going forward then it is really transformational - compared to the past

Even if there were some 'timing differences' and the full year is closer to $70m than $90m its the best position they have been in for years, maybe ever

If things have really changed for the good you'd expect dividends of around 18 cents

I guess in those years are the Tax issue with IRD and the money spent on leaving the U.S market.

[winner69]

Nothing better than excited guru broker analysts

From BusinessDesk:


Two analysts, Guy Hooper at Forsyth Barr and Lily Zhuang at Jarden, reiterated their respective "outperform" and "buy" recommendations after the company's trading update.

They rave about 8 quarters of growth, margin expansion etc etc and use words like robust

Good stuff eh

C’mon guys ……you are charged with getting share price through the $1 mark

[Waltzing]

Dow sell Off.

[Waltzing]

Good price is 90 to 93 until the div is increased.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Good price is 90 to 93 until the div is increased.

Back test of breakout resistance aka the 2nd chance draw.

[Waltzing]

Thank goodness for the back tests.

[winner69]

Wonder if Beagle buying these levels …..keeping silent at the moment until he’s got hiss fill I reckon.

[Beagle]

I have enough money in retail with my preferred retailers WHS and HLG. I added more to WHS this week and if I wanted to allocate more capital to this sector I'd add even more to WHS or HLG.

I find it impossible to overlook or forget MHJ's shocking track record before Covid hit.

[Nor]

These were 24c last year. Should have been brave. But I can remember when they were about 1.30 did they have a share split or just underperform.

[Rawz]

These were 24c last year. Should have been brave. But I can remember when they were about 1.30 did they have a share split or just underperform.

Shoulda woulda coulda. We all wish we bought more during the COVID lows. Don't punish yourself. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

No share split. Market just punished them for turning in some bad numbers during their restructure. We are past that. Nothing but a cash cow now. More consistent the cash is the more re-ratings we will get. Once traded on a 20 P/E

[sb9]

Shoulda woulda coulda. We all wish we bought more during the COVID lows. Don't punish yourself. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

No share split. Market just punished them for turning in some bad numbers during their restructure. We are past that. Nothing but a cash cow now. More consistent the cash is the more re-ratings we will get. Once traded on a 20 P/E

And much of that new look is attributable to Rob Fyfe. He seem to have turnaround company's fortunes over past few years and results are evident now. And no wonder the founders have given reigns to him by appointing him as new Chair.

[Waltzing]

as they say in Norway Fantastic!

in Norway they "Hunt the Light" , an actual activity.

Rob Fyfe "Hunts Profits"

Profits equal Light, No profits its lights out.

Nice retail stock.

The light here in summer is just to harsh.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/whakatanes-michael-hill-jewellers-damaged-in-ram-raid/BJVZ27ZPGBFHNMWINX2Y32N5F4/

On and on it goes...probably plenty more to come to fund some people's meth addiction.

Is insurance covering all these ram raids ? Will they be able to get insurance next year ?

[Lease]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/whakatanes-michael-hill-jewellers-damaged-in-ram-raid/BJVZ27ZPGBFHNMWINX2Y32N5F4/

On and on it goes...probably plenty more to come to fund some people's meth addiction.

Is insurance covering all these ram raids ? Will they be able to get insurance next year ?

Thinking from another angle: MHJ products are so popular. Seems I haven't heard other jewellery shops are burglarised so frequently.

[Waltzing]

Some heavy duty security barriers will need to be installed where possible at all shops for sure.

Its a dangerous country these days.

[winner69]

Percy said on WHS thread -

]Well looks as though retail is boooooooooooooooming.
Went to Westfield Riccarton at 11.30 this morning.
Even Michael Hill had customers.!!.

Should push share price to that much anticipated $1

[nztx]

what will the Aust & Canadian operations likely see ?

NZ must be only one part of the MHJ operation

How's the Aust ASX market faring in state wide lockdowns ?

Will MHJ slide similar to many ASX listed companies on the back of extended lockdowns over in the scorched territory opposite ?

Bear in mind where MHJ was priced last April in depths of the vast Covid dip devoid of much retail activity

These guys mostly operate on hoofs coming into the front doors of the stores - dont they ?
unless they have put a rocket under accelerating their ecommerce strategy since .. ;)

[Rawz]

These guys mostly operate on hoofs coming into the front doors of the stores - dont they ?
unless they have put a rocket under accelerating their ecommerce strategy since .. ;)

MHJ are one of the best in the online space. Online sales has seen 100% pcp growth over numerous periods now. 'Brilliance' membership numbers are growing incredibly well. During covid they did online one on one video call sales.

MHJ created Medley (https://medleyjewellery.com.au/pages/about-us). An online only Jewellery store. Selling the 'fast fashion' stuff. Target market Australia.

[percy]

MHJ are one of the best in the online space. Online sales has seen 100% pcp growth over numerous periods now. 'Brilliance' membership numbers are growing incredibly well. During covid they did online one on one video call sales.

MHJ created Medley (https://medleyjewellery.com.au/pages/about-us). An online only Jewellery store. Selling the 'fast fashion' stuff. Target market Australia.

Record digital sales – Full year sales were up 51.1%. For the first time, digital sales exceeded $30m, representing a
record 6.2% of full year sales (FY20: 5.0%)
6.2% of total sales is very poor when the likes of HLG are achieving near 30%.

[MauroNZ]

Record digital sales – Full year sales were up 51.1%. For the first time, digital sales exceeded $30m, representing a
record 6.2% of full year sales (FY20: 5.0%)
6.2% of total sales is very poor when the likes of HLG are achieving near 30%.

Thanks Percy, interesting comparison. How would compare to the likes of KMD?.

[winner69]

Thanks Percy, interesting comparison. How would compare to the likes of KMD?.

KMD last half year 12.7% sales online

From their preso


Doesn’t put MHJ in good light considering they have been pushing online strongly for many years …maybe people like to touch what they buying when it comes to jewellery

[percy]

Thanks Percy, interesting comparison. How would compare to the likes of KMD?.

KMD's announcement 24th March stated their on line sales accounted for 12.7% of revenue.
I would guess they have increased since then.
So MHJ's are less than half of KMD's.
LOV asx would make a better comparison,however I can not find their % of total sales.They did note they were up an incredible 311% for the year.

[winner69]

when safe to travel again going to Melbourne to see what Charles Rose has to offer

Price on Application and appointments to touch pieces

a real jeweler

[MauroNZ]

KMD last half year 12.7% sales online

From their preso


Doesn’t put MHJ in good light considering they have been pushing online strongly for many years …maybe people like to touch what they buying when it comes to jewellery


The times I bought from MHJ I looked online but decided to go to the store. Personally I believe you get much appreciation of jewellery in person.

My wife has been buying online from small retailers and what makes her happy is when they have a great return/refund policy despite the attractive of the product itself.

[MauroNZ]

KMD's announcement 24th March stated their on line sales accounted for 12.7% of revenue.
I would guess they have increased since then.
So MHJ's are less than half of KMD's.
LOV asx would make a better comparison,however I can not find their % of total sales.They did note they were up an incredible 311% for the year.

True, surely LOV.asx is a better comparison however while having cheaper stuff probably sales are higher?.

Like if anyone looking for an engagement ring doesn't make me sure will buy it online but a cheap necklace/earing could be?.

[Rawz]

Not sure we are comparing apples v apples when looking at jewellery vs clothing retailers.

I suspect if MHJ was to break out the online spending of goods under $200 it would be comparable to HLG or KMD online sales as a % of total sales. Might be a better comparison.

Anyhow. I'm still bullish on MHJ and their turnaround. Especially with the master, Rob Fyfe, leading the board now.

[nztx]

Not sure we are comparing apples v apples when looking at jewellery vs clothing retailers.

I suspect if MHJ was to break out the online spending of goods under $200 it would be comparable to HLG or KMD online sales as a % of total sales. Might be a better comparison.

Anyhow. I'm still bullish on MHJ and their turnaround. Especially with the master, Rob Fyfe, leading the board now.



There was plenty of continuing BULL when they repeatedly deferred Declared Dividend Payout with last year's lockdowns .. ;)

Will they trot the same Bull out again if the current 'same old same old' over in the Burnt Land repeats itself ? ;)

The jury is still out over concerns Aussies' Covid situation may result in further instalments of Bull Dust.. ;)

Obviously a quotient of punters have beaten the SP upwards .. and hopefully they are not disappointed, but you never know.

Have difficulty seeing value in MHJ at current levels, given what is being seen over yonder .. ;)

[Waltzing]

if it goes down to 70-80 its a cheap way to buy gold and diamonds that actually sell..better than tulips or and safer than crypto and not volatile.

[MauroNZ]

Not sure we are comparing apples v apples when looking at jewellery vs clothing retailers.

I suspect if MHJ was to break out the online spending of goods under $200 it would be comparable to HLG or KMD online sales as a % of total sales. Might be a better comparison.

Anyhow. I'm still bullish on MHJ and their turnaround. Especially with the master, Rob Fyfe, leading the board now.

Yeah I have same thoughts. In fact I regret selling WHS after years been underwater and then it recovered. My MHJ holding is still underwater but somehow I feel more positive about the company.

I have to say that I also pay close attention to your comments.

[Rawz]

Yeah I have same thoughts. In fact I regret selling WHS after years been underwater and then it recovered. My MHJ holding is still underwater but somehow I feel more positive about the company.

I have to say that I also pay close attention to your comments.

Don't listen to me. I don't know what I'm doing. Neither does anybody else. We should all invest in ETFs like the godfather of investing Mr Buffett says. But that wouldn't be any fun would it.

Disc. MHJ is my top holding. The last time I purchased shares was 11th March at $0.69.

[nztx]

I think I'd feel safer pretending I didn't read this thread, so as not to disturb golfing sessions
pondering if I missed something .. ;)

Let's face it.. the Holes in One, Birdies & Eagles are far more enjoyable out on the green .. ;)

[Waltzing]

Cheer up; gold and diamonds are for ever. For some reason people love buying these gems. Is the stock a little gem well we will all see soon enough. Its all sparkles so far for the current year.

[nztx]

Cheer up; gold and diamonds are for ever. For some reason people love buying these gems. Is the stock a little gem well we will all see soon enough. Its all sparkles so far for the current year.


but Lithium is running real fast -- faster than gems and bling out the door .. ;)

Let us know when MHJ next delivers a humungous multibagger .. ;)

[winner69]

KMD's announcement 24th March stated their on line sales accounted for 12.7% of revenue.
I would guess they have increased since then.
So MHJ's are less than half of KMD's.
LOV asx would make a better comparison,however I can not find their % of total sales.They did note they were up an incredible 311% for the year.

For what its worth in Australia online accounts for 16% of all non-food retail sales

[Waltzing]

GOLD and Diamonds are defensives but this one pays a dividend.

Its the numbers.

Well its paying a dividend this year anyway....

[percy]

[QUOTE=Waltzingironmansinlgescul;898182][COLOR=#333333]
GOLD and Diamonds are defensives but this one pays a dividend.

Buy a gold diamond ring from Michael Hill for $10,000.
Walk out of the store and try and sell it second hand.
Knowing MHJ and others in this sector operate on huge margins,you would be lucky to get $1,200 for it.
Good money down the tube.

[Dotbond]

Yep, many years ago a builder I know who did work on one of their stores said 700% markup on jewellery.

[clearasmud]

Interesting was the disconnect between the asx and nzx on Thursday and Friday morning.
MHJ. Ax at 80 to 83c and mhj.nz at 89 to 90c.
I think a few panicked due to all 3 eastern capital city MI hills closed due to lockdowns.
A few stoplosses were also hit.

[daveypnz]

Buying here @ the 100 day moving average.

[Waltzing]

The P/E ....shockingly high..

[nztx]

dividend yield looks miserably light too .. ;)


and then there may not be imputation credits, so 33% gets swiped out by the taxman before the cash div lands .. ;)

[Waltzing]

Not worth holding ...terrible .... if anyone wants to do an off market trade at 45 cents we can help...More locks downs coming for AUS and canada and all those shops closed.


Not to mention they are all sitting ducks for quick back up the truck into the shop and take off with a girls best friend.





11 Mar 2021
Interim
1.500c
0.000c
0.631c
26 Mar 2021
AUD


MHJ (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/MHJ)
12 Mar 2020
Interim
1.500c
0.000c
0.628c
29 Jan 2021
AUD


MHJ (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/MHJ)
12 Sep 2019
Final
1.500c
0.000c
0.627c
27 Sep 2019
AUD


MHJ (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/MHJ)
12 Mar 2019
Interim
2.500c
0.000c
1.004c
27 Mar 2019
AUD


MHJ (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/MHJ)
13 Sep 2018
Final
2.500c
0.000c
1.061c
28 Sep 2018
AUD

[clearasmud]

Not worth holding ...terrible .... if anyone wants to do an off market trade at 45 cents we can help...More locks downs coming for AUS and canada and all those shops closed.


Not to mention they are all sitting ducks for quick back up the truck into the shop and take off with a girls best friend.





11 Mar 2021
Interim
1.500c
0.000c
0.631c
26 Mar 2021
AUD


MHJ (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/MHJ)
12 Mar 2020
Interim
1.500c
0.000c
0.628c
29 Jan 2021
AUD


MHJ (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/MHJ)
12 Sep 2019
Final
1.500c
0.000c
0.627c
27 Sep 2019
AUD


MHJ (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/MHJ)
12 Mar 2019
Interim
2.500c
0.000c
1.004c
27 Mar 2019
AUD


MHJ (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/MHJ)
13 Sep 2018
Final
2.500c
0.000c
1.061c
28 Sep 2018
AUD


You'll get way more on market lol.

[winner69]

From the TRA thread and discussion re Michael Hill Shoes rawz said 'Wow didn't know! Funny how that article says the jewellery business in NZ was starting to level off back then in 1993'

Don't have 1993 financials but in 2000 Michael Hill sales in NZ were $63m .... 20 years on $106m .... grown at 2.5% pa ....could say volume leveled off and inflation kept sales revenue increasing (actually beat inflation of 2,2% pa)

[Waltzing]

Big change in demographic since then as the local dont buy bling but the immigrants do.

Lots of Mercedes and BMW owners are the immigrants and you need some bling to go with it.

Lots more immigrants lining up to get in and the list will just get longer and longer.

[Rawz]

From the TRA thread and discussion re Michael Hill Shoes rawz said 'Wow didn't know! Funny how that article says the jewellery business in NZ was starting to level off back then in 1993'

Don't have 1993 financials but in 2000 Michael Hill sales in NZ were $63m .... 20 years on $106m .... grown at 2.5% pa ....could say volume leveled off and inflation kept sales revenue increasing (actually beat inflation of 2,2% pa)

Guess it goes to show how quickly a business can cover NZ.

Still heaps of growth left in Canada and lots in Aus.

Wonder what's next after MHJ conquer Canada and Aus. USA again? Or Europe. Or stay as is and just become a dividend stock.

[winner69]

Pretty amazing results in the circumstances

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/377721/352696.pdf

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Pretty amazing results in the circumstances

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/377721/352696.pdf

NPAT of $45.3m and cash on hand of $72.4m. Subtracting the cash balance from the market cap she's on a PE of under 6...

[sb9]

NPAT of $45.3m and cash on hand of $72.4m. Subtracting the cash balance from the market cap she's on a PE of under 6...

Huge turnaround from a year ago...

[Waltzing]

is this a BUY? has this outperformed expectations? even with with store closures and pick pockets or two... it got to be worth over the one coin market.

[Rawz]

is this a BUY? has this outperformed expectations?

Analysts predicted $40m profit so smashed it.

[Waltzing]

being careful on the DIV.

its crossed the line winner...

best value buy of the day..

[Rawz]

EPS is 0.1168
Price today $0.89
Current P/E = 0.89/0.1168 = 7.62. GIVE it a no growth 10 p/e and we have a price of $1.17 (i.e. 31% above todays price).

Put it in a simple DCF model with 2.5% growth and 10 terminal value and you get $1.35 share price (i.e. 51% above todays price).

What happens if MHJ start getting more runs on the board and market rerates this stock to 12, 14 p/e...

What is MHJ going to do with all this cash they are generating??? They can't pay us 6cents a year and hoard the rest. They are generating 15 cents free cash and paying 6 (they say 3cents per half the new norm). They could increase the dividend 20% yoy for next 5 years no worries.

I bought more this morning. I have strong conviction in this turnaround story. Covid clearly helping this retailer. Lot of the consumer dollars that should be going on holidays to fiji is landing in the tills at MHJ stores. Board of directors is led by Rob Fyfe with 2.7m shares. All directors own a reasonable stake and CEO has reasonable stake with lots of performance rights.

Outlook: First 17 weeks of FY22- 17% same store sales growth, wow is that a typo?!?!.

Better buy than WHS?

[Waltzing]

Well the numbers are stunning and strong cash position compared to 2016-2017 when the SP handle was a lot higher.

Its the buy of the day ?

Yes very conservative on the DIV as it almost deserved a small special or at least some discounted gift options for xmas.

Im sure MR F is waiting for see what the future holds before recommending a special div.

Cant have enough if they increase the DIV and they continue.

Restructuring as delivered EPS.

Not NZX 50... price might not go anywhere for a while.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

The thing I like about MHJ is that I don't believe many sales are 'lost' during lockdown, rather are just delayed (or bought online). Purchase of jewelry tends to be very intentional, so if someone cannot buy it when they want it they will just defer until they can.

[Waltzing]

looks like plenty of shares on offer at a discount to earnings.

Discounted on lock downs here and across the tasman.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

EPS is 0.1168
Price today $0.89
Current P/E = 0.89/0.1168 = 7.62. GIVE it a no growth 10 p/e and we have a price of $1.17 (i.e. 31% above todays price).

Put it in a simple DCF model with 2.5% growth and 10 terminal value and you get $1.35 share price (i.e. 51% above todays price).

What happens if MHJ start getting more runs on the board and market rerates this stock to 12, 14 p/e...

What is MHJ going to do with all this cash they are generating??? They can't pay us 6cents a year and hoard the rest. They are generating 15 cents free cash and paying 6 (they say 3cents per half the new norm). They could increase the dividend 20% yoy for next 5 years no worries.

I bought more this morning. I have strong conviction in this turnaround story. Covid clearly helping this retailer. Lot of the consumer dollars that should be going on holidays to fiji is landing in the tills at MHJ stores. Board of directors is led by Rob Fyfe with 2.7m shares. All directors own a reasonable stake and CEO has reasonable stake with lots of performance rights.

Outlook: First 17 weeks of FY22- 17% same store sales growth, wow is that a typo?!?!.

Better buy than WHS?

sounds like a good takeover target. WHS is currently on the acquisition hunt and has closed its own in-store jewelry counters. Might be an interesting fit, but not sure they would go for it with the large international footprint.

[sb9]

sounds like a good takeover target. WHS is currently on the acquisition hunt and has closed its own in-store jewelry counters. Might be an interesting fit, but not sure they would go for it with the large international footprint.

Pretty hard to take them over with more than 80% of ownership tied up with Hill family.