MHJ - Michael Hill International.

[clearasmud]

Pretty hard to take them over with more than 80% of ownership tied up with Hill family.
Don't you mean 55%

[Rawz]

[QUOTE=clearasmud;902547]Don't you mean 55%[/QUOTE

It is 80%.
Michael Hill 148m shares
Emma Hill 167m shares
Total shares 387m shares

Not much share price movement after the great FY announcement this morning. This is very typical of MHJ. It's like the market doesnt believe the numbers or something. Then over the next week or so the SP starts trending upwards. Be over $1 soon.

[Waltzing]

"Be over $1 soon."

lets hope so!

MHJ should get a big cheer from the investment community; champagne performance.

[sb9]

[QUOTE=clearasmud;902547]Don't you mean 55%[/QUOTE

It is 80%.
Michael Hill 148m shares
Emma Hill 167m shares
Total shares 387m shares

Not much share price movement after the great FY announcement this morning. This is very typical of MHJ. It's like the market doesnt believe the numbers or something. Then over the next week or so the SP starts trending upwards. Be over $1 soon.

Exactly, those are shareholding numbers I saw in this morning preliminary report. Outside Hills family, Chair Rob Fyfe holds another 2.6mln odd shares. So very tightly held register in all.

[Waltzing]

wont be surprised to see some of those sold off on a good performance.

no big institutional support means its only retail SHAZ that support it.

ACC dumped some recently.

some picked up by "Spheria Asset Management Pty Ltd"

Notices of performance securities in June.

[Crisis]

Hill R Michael Family (https://www.marketscreener.com/business-leaders/Hill-R-Michael-Family-06QDYX-E/biography/)
148,330,600
38.2%


Spheria Asset Management Pty Ltd.
50,814,123
13.1%


Regal Funds Management Pty Ltd.
19,370,415
4.99%


Mark Hill (https://www.marketscreener.com/business-leaders/Mark-Hill-0GD3G5-E/biography/)
19,156,926
4.94%


Emma Jane Hill (https://www.marketscreener.com/business-leaders/Emma-Jane-Hill-0959T2-E/biography/)
19,156,926
4.94%


Accident Compensation Corp.
18,922,378
4.88%


Fidelity Management & Research Co. LLC
5,404,289
1.39%


Robert Ian Fyfe (https://www.marketscreener.com/business-leaders/Robert-Ian-Fyfe-068MGP-E/biography/)
2,693,640
0.69%


Vanward Investments Ltd.
2,298,056
0.59%


Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
2,226,561
0.57%

[Rawz]

Crisis what is your source? Your link goes back to a ST post?

Everywhere I look says Emma/Mark Hill own 167m shares.

The Hills should mop up the rest of the shares for $1.50 and be done with it. It would cost them $116m. $70m cash in the bank. Banks would lend the rest. If it wasnt for the Hills large blocking stake private equity would have raid this company already.

Anyways. Waltzingman says he wouldnt be surprised to see Rob Fyfe sell down some of his holding. Probably deserves to giving he purchased over 1m shares last year around 37 cents. Might need to sell some of his 2 bagger to build a new deck. Fair enough.

[Crisis]

Apologies for the wrong link. Insider holding 51.7% and Free float 49.3%
Source: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MICHAEL-HILL-INTERNATIONA-29688133/company/
or https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MHJ.NZ/holders?p=MHJ.NZ

[Rawz]

Weird. Their report out today says different so I assume market screener (which likely feeds of yahoo) is incorrect? I assume the board members know their own holdings. ASB securities has the same as todays report.

BTW- I have found Yahoo to have wrong data in the past. last example i came across was on dividend data on HLG. It's historical data was incorrect when compared to dividendyield.co.nz website and when checking against annual reports the yahoo data was wrong.

[Waltzing]

well i am probably very wrong there as this might be the start of the performance curve and the share price is still pretty cheap.

in fact if these numbers stay why wouldnt the share price go past 1.50.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Mark & Emma Hill (aka Mole Hill Limited & Squeakedin Limited) have an interest in Hoglett Hamlett Limited so their total interest in the AR includes that. Total Hill interest is ~50%.

[Waltzing]

extrapolate the chart out as per Mr D Guppy and you get back over 1.60 in no time and that is taking the base line out without any spikes.

[winner69]

extrapolate the chart out as per Mr D Guppy and you get back over 1.60 in no time and that is taking the base line out without any spikes.

Daryl is a guru ....and a decent bloke

So 160 it is going to be

[Waltzing]

"Daryl is a guru"

he hasnt spoken on this stock but if we look at the 6 month base line since the turn around and do channel as per Carter Braxton Worth what do we get..

1.60 on the base line..

[Waltzing]

Winner(n) , might like to double check that with superior math skills..

[winner69]

Winner(n) , might like to double check that with superior math skills..

Good to see you getting into the new space age (like Rakon)

[Beagle]

They have an awful lot of stores in Australia which will be shut and now N.Z. as well. Trading right on the 100 day moving average line and the risk looks like a breakdown to me.
WHS is a needs based business, MHJ is not, that's all I will say about it apart from to again wish holders good luck.

[Rawz]

Beagle still not a fan even after an exceptional result. One thing he will like is how MHJ keep the wage subsidies they get from Aus/Can/NZ govts. No refunding going on over here, unlike WHS. Management very commercially focused taking every cent they can for shareholders.


WHS is a needs based business, MHJ is not..

On the call yesterday analysts asked if MHJ get any post lockdown revenge spending.. CEO and CFO highlighted Canada who are out of lockdown and posting +24% same store sales for the first seven weeks of FY22. They said they "felt Canada owed them" this sort of sales uplift post lockdowns and were happy to see it come to fruition. Probably fair to say NZ and Aus will experience the same post our lockdowns. Maybe humans do need the sparkly stuff? Retail therapy after tough lockdowns? We earned it I guess.

[winner69]

Winner(n) , might like to double check that with superior math skills..

Yes there is a channel emanating from a base line .....and its heading to 160 early next year

only downside is price has fallen below the bottom channel line -- it it doesn't pull its socks up soon i need to advise the channel is broken

[Waltzing]

certainly hope it breaks down... NZX doesnt have machine learning algo's hitting it hard and only the SHAZ to support non NZX 50 stocks plus a few companies.

Doesnt look like the SHAZ are stupid and the buying is there today.

75-80 range would be a wonderful buying op.

big support line across 70-77.

As ONeil says the bigger the base the bigger the break out.

Looks like profit taking by some from the april update and last years bargain prices.

[Rawz]

Gee Waltzing- 75-80 range? If it drops there i suspect every man and his dog would be backing up the truck.

MHJ have $72m cash on the books. That's 19 cents per share. I reckon once we are past lockdowns and living with covid (sometime in 2022) it is special dividend time. 10 cents per share would feel about right.

[Waltzing]

"Gee Waltzing- 75-80 range"

too much fresh air....

What if the cash pile gets even bigger?

Its got more cash then HLG...

[Deleted]

[Waltzing]

What if they out perform both WHS and HLG?

unlikely of course...

[Habits]

Gee Waltzing- 75-80 range? If it drops there i suspect every man and his dog would be backing up the truck.

MHJ have $72m cash on the books. That's 19 cents per share. I reckon once we are past lockdowns and living with covid (sometime in 2022) it is special dividend time. 10 cents per share would feel about right.

Here in aotearower we are struggling with covid right now but very soon that will change with increasing vaxis, something like one million have been double jabbed... can pay a spc divi in 2021 but too many companies worry about the signal it sends of investors making profits

[Waltzing]

The least favoured retail stock on the market.. numbers EPS / PE looking good.

You get the bling and the

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvfi8XtSSiE

and for the traditionalists

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knLd8bfeWtI

[kiora]

Such a cool phone. Wonder if they still work.

[Nor]

Here in aotearower we are struggling with covid right now but very soon that will change with increasing vaxis, something like one million have been double jabbed... can pay a spc divi in 2021 but too many companies worry about the signal it sends of investors making profits

Aoteaziland.

[Beagle]

The least favoured retail stock on the market.. numbers EPS / PE looking good.

You get the bling and the

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvfi8XtSSiE

and for the traditionalists

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knLd8bfeWtI

No shiny things were worn in this cute photo.

If you must wear a decent watch on one's paw, make it a Swiss watch that lasts for life not the rubbish Chinese made junk they sell at MHJ.
Other than that and a diamond ring for Mrs B all other shiny things are a waste of perfectly good money, in my opinion.

12883

[Waltzing]

Yes there is no need for shiny stuff on the Hunt...except on the lapel of the jackets.

But for some young people this retail chain ROCKS...

but it could be a long wait ...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6p-lDYPR2P8

[clearasmud]

Yes there is no need for shiny stuff on the Hunt...except on the lapel of the jackets.

But for some young people this retail chain ROCKS...

but it could be a long wait ...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6p-lDYPR2P8
I know the market loves Lovisa, it has higher growth and better stock control?.
Buts it's a smaller business than M, has debt, makes half?, but is capped at 2 billion!

[clearasmud]

I know the market loves Lovisa, it has higher growth and better stock control?.
Buts it's a smaller business than M, has half the cash, makes half?, but is capped at 2 billion!

I could say something similar about RBD.

[Waltzing]

LOV is a great Jewellery stock for sure... no arguments there.

[percy]

LOV is a great Jewellery stock for sure... no arguments there.

Agree.
Comparing MHJ and LOV 5 year charts, you can see which one is worth investing in.

[Rawz]

LOV.asx has goodish growth but holy heck it is trading at huge multiples. It increased revenue 15% on FY2019 levels. I dont see what all the fuss is about to be honest.

LOV all about the fast fashion jewellery. MHJ more traditional in a way.

I wonder when MHJ will turn to growth? They have consolidated/refined the business with store rationalisation, new employee sales incentive scheme, no more big discounting promotions, more efficient 3pl supply lines and strong online + branded jewellery offerings. They say a new online market will be entered by H2 FY22, that should offer some growth opportunities but will come with fairly large marketing costs I would imagine. At least its not going to be a physical store rollout. Hill Snr probably wont allow it whilst he is sitting at the board room table, after the USA nightmare....

[clearasmud]

LOV.asx has goodish growth but holy heck it is trading at huge multiples. It increased revenue 15% on FY2019 levels. I dont see what all the fuss is about to be honest.

LOV all about the fast fashion jewellery. MHJ more traditional in a way.

I wonder when MHJ will turn to growth? They have consolidated/refined the business with store rationalisation, new employee sales incentive scheme, no more big discounting promotions, more efficient 3pl supply lines and strong online + branded jewellery offerings. They say a new online market will be entered by H2 FY22, that should offer some growth opportunities but will come with fairly large marketing costs I would imagine. At least its not going to be a physical store rollout. Hill Snr probably wont allow it whilst he is sitting at the board room table, after the USA nightmare....

Yes they would have learnt from USA and Emma Jane disasters

[Waltzing]

Its in recovery mode and you have to like the numbers such as stated here by others before P/E. If numbers just stay at this level and surely they will improve a bit that P/E is hard to beat..

When P/E's go over the 3 figure mark you need growth.

The other stock has some very big back fills in it..

This stock has a long slow train wreck graph and then the start of a turn around.

From a pending destressed asset point of view this fits the bill.

Looking for destressed assets in Europe from here on in.

Your road to recovery in NZ is on track and there is nothing pending a deadly variant that will derail it.

[clearasmud]

Agree.
Comparing MHJ and LOV 5 year charts, you can see which one is worth investing in.
Hi Percy, Don't you mean "was worth investing in"

[Waltzing]

yes clear as mud.

the other one is a lov'e trading stock now.

Those big back fills and they are big!

[percy]

Hi Percy, Don't you mean "was worth investing in"

NO..........................................
LOV's business model is successful while MHJ's is questionable.

[whome]

Hi Percy, Re ‘LOV's business model is successful while MHJ's is questionable.’ Can you pls elaborate with a summary of the key elements of the business models of both LOV and MHJ that makes one successful and the other questionable. Asking from the viewpoint of respect for your analyses.

[sb9]

NO..........................................
LOV's business model is successful while MHJ's is questionable.

That may have been true while the Hills were at helm. With them making way for Fyfe to be in charge of Board, I think they may be changed course.

[percy]

That may have been true while the Hills were at helm. With them making way for Fyfe to be in charge of Board, I think they may be changed course.

Depends on how you rate Fyfe.
I do not rate him.

[sb9]

Depends on how you rate Fyfe.
I do not rate him.

Fair enough.

[clearasmud]

Fair enough.
I haven't met Fyfe but I like what he's doing.
If the next report is a cracker like this one surely this stock will be well north.

[nztx]

I haven't met Fyfe but I like what he's doing.
If the next report is a cracker like this one surely this stock will be well north.

Seems like a likeable enough fellow -- smart enough & good capturing his audience

a pity about the hangers full of debris in various states of no-go that he has had land in his lap
requiring the hard yards & more difficult decisions with a swarm of Beehive busy-bodies breathing
down his neck along the way as an added bonus or handicap for the top seat ;)


I reckon start a new Airline (call it say STA) with all the bods here on board as stakeholders may be more successful ;)

Lets face it - we have a Captain, Crew, able navigators, all the support crew & yonks of past experience in every
possible direction that could be wished for .. how could it not fly well & be a winner ? ;)

Send our flash Bird around the country and sell tickets for letting the punters explore it .. no offshore jaunts needed

Let's face it AIR is likely be chugging along on one wing with all engines missing a beat here & there
crippled by Political, Union, Financial & Legacy issues for darned long time into the future .. ;)

.. and that's assuming Govt eventually get around to pulling up the blind even partially some time in the future
after they wake up to some sort of revised reality .. and not crazy dreams of trying to bolt the door
to deflect the nasties away every time the breeze blows in from a suspicious direction .. ;)

[Waltzing]

Look like 80 cents wont be today..

The SHAZ, that New Zealand's most popular platform should love this stock.

[Rawz]

I think a lot of investors love this stock, Waltzing.
It's now at the back end of a multi year business overhaul that is now bearing fruits such as highest profit in a decade and 23% ROE.

I don't now what they are going to do with the $72m cash on the balance sheet but I suspect once Aus/NZ/Canada populations are highly vaccinated and the govts change from lockdowns to 'living with covid' we will be in for a special one off dividend + high annual dividends going forward. FY21 they generated 18.7 cps in free cash flow. And trading at 88 cents...? Almost too good to be true

[Waltzing]

"Almost too good to be true"

appears to be some profit taking but buy orders increasing daily.

The numbers required a double check on the p/E to believe it.

The best thing is its a liquid stock. One of many key points required to be included in a portfolio.

Many investors and investment companies private and public use key indicators to avoid or mitigate risk.

[Rawz]

Someone selling (and people buying), maybe ACC selling some more? Fairly steady wall around $0.87-$0.88 since results were released. Very orderly I must say.

[clearasmud]

Someone selling (and people buying), maybe ACC selling some more? Fairly steady wall around $0.87-$0.88 since results were released. Very orderly I must say.

This stock has a pe of (385x.87)/(47/.96)=6.84 and no debt.
Where 47 is the adjusted for the lease rules profit in millions.

[Rawz]

This stock has a pe of (385x.87)/(47/.96)=6.84 and no debt.
Where 47 is the adjusted for the lease rules profit in millions.

That's clear as mud :p what happens if you back out the $72m CASH on the books :ohmy:

Negative growth priced into this stock. Not so sure about that. Sure revenue hasnt increased over the last 5 years, byt margins have. Profit has. You need to look at the same store sales growth to get an idea of how the core of this business has been performing. And the answer is very strongly.

[clearasmud]

That's clear as mud :p what happens if you back out the $72m CASH on the books :ohmy:

Negative growth priced into this stock. Not so sure about that. Sure revenue hasnt increased over the last 5 years, byt margins have. Profit has. You need to look at the same store sales growth to get an idea of how the core of this business has been performing. And the answer is very strongly.

The company has got rid of its debt and as you said the business ain't what it was.
Looks like a cash machine to me.
Sure it ain't a Lovisa but then its market cap ain't $2bill,rather 0.3bill

[sb9]

Someone selling (and people buying), maybe ACC selling some more? Fairly steady wall around $0.87-$0.88 since results were released. Very orderly I must say.

As per ACC last SSH notice in Apr of this year, they ceased to be substantial holder with about 18.9mln share under their belt. I presume its them selling still and may continue to be an overhang depending on their intention.

[Waltzing]

SP staying steady but not showing the shock sell off on store closures that perhaps it should.. AUS a mess and Auckland stuck in mystery case chase.. sale must be taking a big hit. Certainly hope so!

[Rawz]

SP staying steady but not showing the shock sell off on store closures that perhaps it should.. AUS a mess and Auckland stuck in mystery case chase.. sale must be taking a big hit. Certainly hope so!

Sales will be taking a big hit but will be balanced by government wage subsidies and then massive revenge spending once we are out of lockdown.

I'm thinking MHJ will see a record Christmas trading period, absorbing a lot of the cash that isnt spent during lockdowns. The vaccination rates looking good for the Aussies to be released last couple of months of this year.

[Waltzing]

"The vaccination rates looking good for the Aussies to be released last couple of months of this year."

yes very interesting article on BBC yesterday of studies being done on effectiveness in the UK and looks promising but the really fast moving variants arnt yet wide spread.

might be a case of no one really having enough of these because they arnt yet considered SAFE.

WHS on the move today and considered SAFE.

[winner69]

I see Forsythe Bar have cancelled Michael Hill …no more analyst coverage

[Greekwatchdog]

One of their analysts has left data below. Before MHJ was Outperform target $1.05. This was after the result.


It was one of many changes..

[jimdog31]

One of their analysts has left data below. Before MHJ was Outperform target $1.05. This was after the result.


It was one of many changes..

sorry bud i dont follow?

[Greekwatchdog]

Sorry data didn't down load.

Coverage transferred to Rohan Koreman-Smit
Skellerup Holdings (SKL.NZ)


Coverage temporarily transferred to Andy Bowley
Kathmandu (KMD.NZ)
Restaurant Brands (RBD.NZ)
Warehouse Group (WHS.NZ)


Coverage transferred to Jamie Foulkes and temporarily added to our Research Insights Series
Delegat Group (DGL.NZ)
New Zealand King Salmon (NZK.NZ)
Sanford (SAN.NZ)
Scales Corporation (SCL.NZ)
​​​​​​​Comvita (CVT.NZ; already within Research Insights series)
Coverage discontinued
Briscoe Group (BGP.NZ)
My Food Bag (MFB.NZ)
Michael Hill International (MHJ.NZ)
PGG Wrightson (PGW.NZ)


As a result of these changes our previous ratings and target prices can no longer be relied upon by investors for DGL, NZK, SAN, SCL, BGP, MFB, MHJ and PGW.

[winner69]

Being grouped in with My Food Bag is some feat

And target price of $1.05 ‘can no longer be relied upon by investors’

[Greekwatchdog]

Its all about their own research and opinion. Jewellery vs Food is no comparison so who cares about MFB on MHJ thread..

[Rawz]

W69 just bored and trying to have a crack at MHJ.

If I remember correctly he was the champion of the dog MFB. Climbed into the IPO

[Waltzing]

luckily most targets are just targets... you know darts thrown at a board...

now what was their ATM targets 12 months ago?

They dont have crystal balls...

and the chart says much higher if the numbers keep going up.

often stocks return to its previous high if the numbers are on the board.

[Beau]

luckily most targets are just targets... you know darts thrown at a board...

now what was their ATM targets 12 months ago?

They dont have crystal balls...

and the chart says much higher if the numbers keep going up.

often stocks return to its previous high if the numbers are on the board.

Thanks for that that makes it all clear going forward.

[Waltzing]

Runs on the score board and the stock price will go up all things being equal.

W(n) may have decided the team is not going to be in to bat at the moment due to the game being a bit on again off again.

But then if level 2 Plus arrives a lot of games are going to be off. But that was to be expected anyway.

[Waltzing]

the selling continues... .80 please.

[Rawz]

the buying continues... .90 please

[Sideshow Bob]

Record date is Thursday for the 3c AUD dividend.....

[Waltzing]

yes buyers are turning up... no chance of .80 even with some big sell downs lately.. very undervalued surely and winner has pointed out over on WHS.

[winner69]

the selling continues... .80 please.

.
……….getting there

[Rawz]

Did a chunk trade at 85 cents? Todays low is 86 but VWAP is 85.5?

$1.5m turnover for today. Pretty good for MHJ.

[winner69]

Yep, 1,185,751 shares went through earlier

Seller had to accept 85 cents …no doubt a happy buyer

Buyer was waltzingman as he’s waiting for 80 cents …next week

[Rawz]

80 cents if buying in Aussie post the 3 cent divvy. Not going to happen on the NZX. :)

[Ltw]

Think the cheap seats might be gone!
would have been good buying at 85c back towards 90 then hopefully on to a buck:t_up:

[Getty]

Victoria coming out of lockdown tomorrow should help trans Tasman retailers.

[winner69]

Victoria coming out of lockdown tomorrow should help trans Tasman retailers.

Only regions

Melbourne still in lockdown for another few weeks …need more jabs

[Rawz]

Only regions

Melbourne still in lockdown for another few weeks …need more jabs

They coming W69, just in time for a humongous Christmas trading period. Last qrt of the calendar year is going to see record numbers for all retailers.

[Rawz]

the selling continues... .80 please.

Well MHJ finished the week at 87 cents after going ex dividend 3 Aussie cents…

The chance for 80cents is long gone and as it turned out was wishful thinking. Constant buying around these levels snapping up any shares on offer. Feel like we are close to a push towards $1.

Happy holder.

[winner69]

Well MHJ finished the week at 87 cents after going ex dividend 3 Aussie cents…

The chance for 80cents is long gone and as it turned out was wishful thinking. Constant buying around these levels snapping up any shares on offer. Feel like we are close to a push towards $1.

Happy holder.

No doubt that day will come rawz ..... you've been waiting for a long time now

[Rawz]

No doubt that day will come rawz ..... you've been waiting for a long time now

Time is relative :)

[clearasmud]

Well MHJ finished the week at 87 cents after going ex dividend 3 Aussie cents…

The chance for 80cents is long gone and as it turned out was wishful thinking. Constant buying around these levels snapping up any shares on offer. Feel like we are close to a push towards $1.

Happy holder.

I agree. Founder shares have been juicing the market.

[Waltzing]

if you want to hear a clear thinker and a management professional and leader Rob Fyfe.

Covid-19 Delta outbreak: Govt business adviser Rob Fyfe frustrated over lack of progress - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-delta-outbreak-govt-business-adviser-rob-fyfe-frustrated-over-lack-of-progress/6WJYWEXBSATK5YRMI6VKJ754ME/)

Nice to know this clear headed leader is helping this company.

[Rawz]

if you want to hear a clear thinker and a management professional and leader Rob Fyfe.

Covid-19 Delta outbreak: Govt business adviser Rob Fyfe frustrated over lack of progress - NZ Herald (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/covid-19-delta-outbreak-govt-business-adviser-rob-fyfe-frustrated-over-lack-of-progress/6WJYWEXBSATK5YRMI6VKJ754ME/)

Nice to know this clear headed leader is helping this company.

Yes we are very lucky shareholders to have Fyfe as chairman of the board. He's a very astute businessman and leader.

Just reading that article... It will be nice to have a National government in again.. people that understand business. I think it is needed right now.

[Waltzing]

Hanseatic trade is the answer and no amount of singing round the camp fire and canoe padding is going to cut in the high tech future of global trade.

RF know its.

[clearasmud]

Yes we are very lucky shareholders to have Fyfe as chairman of the board. He's a very astute businessman and leader.

Just reading that article... It will be nice to have a National government in again.. people that understand business. I think it is needed right now.
I agree, after all this time I'm getting sentimental for National.
Looking at the chart it appears primed for a big move up on good news (again)

[Panda-NZ-]

I agree, after all this time I'm getting sentimental for National.
Looking at the chart it appears primed for a big move up on good news (again)

NZX up 100% since they were voted out. So its clearly not needed, or useful.

[clearasmud]

NZX up 100% since they were voted out. so its clearly not needed or useful.
True but the high incomer's don't like 39% tax

[nztx]

True but the high incomer's don't like 39% tax

Cant blame them either, with no compensation in Tax credits increase for dividends
fully imputed either. The upwards increase in costs isn't recognised with fiscal drag
& of course Govt win out of this Tax Hike all the way to the bank.

But then certain select sectors always do turn into the runaway wild west, every time
Labour get in to sit down for a while-- check the past history on this ;)

this time is no different from past instances ..

Some things run away, the poorer get a temporary reprieve, before the catch up catches up to
erode all extra in hand, prices run away, values run away upwards as the participants try to
preserve the real value of the sagging fiat currency equivalent in hand .. ;)

What comes round goes round, does it not ? ;)

MHJ are probably a benefactor of this curious process too ..

[Panda-NZ-]

Farmers like the low dollar, its partly why they vote for the current government now.

Many exporters do better under lab.

[nztx]

Farmers like the low dollar, its partly why they vote for the current government now.


I'm sure they will continue to, especially when things like the 39% Top Rate Tax Razor, UTE Tax & other Green Electric
nonsense gets hoisted on them overnight .. ;)

With the extra dollars Labor have artificially created for them there might even be a little left after being shafted
at 39% top Tax rates to sneak into MHJ too ? ;)

Maybe Pascoe's miss out on a higher value sale out of things, but then it doesn't matter so much if the Mrs loses something
out in the garden or in the back paddock ? ;)

[Panda-NZ-]

Like a power station asset, yes we lost track of those sadly.

[sb9]

Nice handsome divvy just landed in bank a/c, thanks MHJ :t_up:

[Rawz]

Nice handsome divvy just landed in bank a/c, thanks MHJ :t_up:

And plenty more where that came from ;)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Big block went through at 88c which may have finally cleared that selling resistance. In my opinion there's a good probability we have seen the end of this monthly consolidation.

Disc: hold.

[Rawz]

It's looking good. Winner might finally get his $1 he's been harping on about :p

[Rawz]

Big buying could be Waltzingman, got tired of waiting for 80cents so pulled the trigger ;)

[winner69]

Hope we get to a buck soon

MHJ seems to be one of those stocks that fit the old saying ....'Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.'

So let's hope but then again hope is not a good strategy - especially so if the market is rationale when it comes to MHJ

[Waltzing]

"Big buying could be Waltzingman"

No not on this stock it not Blue Chip and doesnt fit the rules for bigger allocations.

Rules are good its when you find good reasons to sell and the stock hits its sweet spot and takes off that you have to stick to the rules no matter what.

You can all see the damage over on After The Melt down stock.

But if you were whatching high yield then a big trigger on ATM was never a good idea as China is not a stable balanced economy and now they are really going to find there model us under big pressure as they now face the same structural issues that ANZ does. Or is it just NZ.

[Rawz]

I reckon if HLG report strong online sales for glassons Australia, it will probably be better to buy MHJ than more HLG..

[Waltzing]

"MHJ than more HLG."

thats a big call and depends on your risk value of the break out of total retails spend per product utility.

its the product utility percentage of total retail that should drive your retail sector allocations.

Having said that the order vol today is very strong from the retail public investors this morning.

For those who are ON MARKET today you can see increased retail investor confidence in the NZX and its only 11.30.

Look like a big vote of confidence in the company and the board today. RFF has really created confidence in the market for this stock and anything he is involved in. His ability to separate out strategies to execute a plan is second to none and is showing how the government and state sector is simply not in his league.

[Ltw]

WOW solid Volume going through today nice to see

[sb9]

Ready for another breakout....

[Rawz]

Ready for another breakout....

Whs will drag it up

[clearasmud]

Ready for another breakout....

As I said months before this stock will probably revert to the mean i.e $2.
Up to 92c ex divi of 3c

[sb9]

As I said months before this stock will probably revert to the mean i.e $2.
Up to 92c ex divi of 3c

Nice POP today, inching close to $1.

[Waltzing]

only french champagne goes with diamonds..

imagine 2 dollars... lots of investors will be very sore... they did not buy...

[winner69]

Nice POP today, inching close to $1.

Even better now

[Rawz]

We will be $1 very very soon.

Market seems to be pricing MHJ and WHS on similar multiple.

WHS P/E 8.1
MHJ needs to get to $0.99 to be back on par.

Glad a bought more between $0.86 and $0.89 before it went ex div. Nice gains in short period of time. Prob should do the same strategy on WHS actually

[clearasmud]

We will be $1 very very soon.

Market seems to be pricing MHJ and WHS on similar multiple.

WHS P/E 8.1
MHJ needs to get to $0.99 to be back on par.

Glad a bought more between $0.86 and $0.89 before it went ex div. Nice gains in short period of time. Prob should do the same strategy on WHS actually

MHJ now touched 94c.
Grinding up as predicted by a few of us.
Remember this has been as high as $2.
Lets hope they can execute and jewelry demand remains high post covid.

[Waltzing]

.95 its almost on a tear.. not quite rakon but Tortoise and the Hare..

[Rawz]

.95 its almost on a tear.. not quite rakon but Tortoise and the Hare..

Some good volume as well.

[Waltzing]

Havnt check the register but there is some profit taking going on that might last a while. Someone in the hill brigade probably still selling.

[Rawz]

Havnt check the register but there is some profit taking going on that might last a while. Someone in the hill brigade probably still selling.

All good for the free float. When they sold some in the 80's didnt seem to bother the market.

Buying still good at these levels. Looking forward to the $1 party we all been waiting for

[Waltzing]

" $1 party"

balloons, french champagne , dancing girls... had a french teacher called MANON. Glamour but did not drink champagne!


not expecting a dollar till xmas.

[clearasmud]

" $1 party"

balloons, french champagne , dancing girls... had a french teacher called MANON. Glamour but did not drink champagne!


not expecting a dollar till xmas.


1st Quarter sales out.
Looks quite good.
Compared to 1st qtr 2021 Margins, digital sales up but all stores revenue down due to much increased lockdowns.

[Rawz]

What the! Call the police. The update was dated 12th (yesterday) and released to ASX but not NZX??

I need to have a coffee but looks all good. If you want to know what AUS and NZ will look like coming out of lockdowns the CAN numbers is the crystal ball.


Commenting on the result, Michael Hill International Limited, Managing Director and CEO Daniel Bracken said: “I’m particularly pleased with our results, having delivered double digit same stores sales growth together with continued margin improvement for the quarter – marking our ninth quarter of positive same stores sales growth since FY19Q3. These results reaffirm our transformational agenda is enhancing all aspects of our business, broadening our omni-channel offering, elevating our brand and delivering growth. “Our strategic initiatives – driving elevated margins, an intense focus on costs, and strong digital and physical sales, have all combined to lessen the negative impact on earnings from sustained store closures across Australia and New Zealand. “Upon reopening, our Canadian business has been flying, delivering impressive sales and margin growth every week. This demonstrates that as territories reopen, the business is ready to meet the strong consumer demand, with the right inventory, engaged team members and appropriate safety protocols in place. We are looking forward to the progressive reopening of our NSW, VIC and Auckland stores, in readiness for the all-important trading period.”

Update can be found here: https://investor.michaelhill.com/

[winner69]

I take it when they say 'same store sales' they only count the stores that were open (not locked down) during the quarter ....other wise the numbers make no sense

Anybody know how it works

Yes, Canada impressive

Share price go over the buck today ....and start its march towards 125 by Christmas

[Waltzing]

Oh no just split my coffee... cant be right... oh no another share price going up..

No dont buy this share, terrible stock, worst stock , just a load of stones and glass.

Owned by some old guy playing Tchaikovsky on a wooden thing with pieces of horse hair..

[Rawz]

I take it when they say 'same store sales' they only count the stores that were open (not locked down) during the quarter ....other wise the numbers make no sense

Anybody know how it works

Yes, Canada impressive

Share price go over the buck today ....and start its march towards 125 by Christmas

Same store ignore the stores closed due to their store rationalization program.

How about 20% less trading days but only 10% down on pcp. And that’s all stores, so includes trading with 4 less stores. With margin expansion probably making very similar earnings to pcp.

Credit to management.

[winner69]

Same store ignore the stores closed due to their store rationalization program.

How about 20% less trading days but only 10% down on pcp. And that’s all stores, so includes trading with 4 less stores. With margin expansion probably making very similar earnings to pcp.

Credit to management.

Yes, that's normally the metric

So how does it work for say NZ

Annual Report F21 says 49 stores in F20 and F21 - store numbers constant

But this report says Same Stores going from 17,9m to 21.0m up 17.8%
and then All Stores going from 25.4m to 22,1m ... down 13.2%

Big difference in last years numbers between Same and All when it seems store numbers are the same -- that what made me think they do some clever sneaky stuff around trading days (and not just adjusting for any closed stores)

Otherwise the numbers make no sense ....a bit like those Comvita numbers the other day

[Waltzing]

"Otherwise the numbers make no sense"

SELL!

[Rawz]

Yes, that's normally the metric

So how does it work for say NZ

Annual Report F21 says 49 stores in F20 and F21 - store numbers constant

But this report says Same Stores going from 17,9m to 21.0m up 17.8%
and then All Stores going from 25.4m to 22,1m ... down 13.2%

Big difference in last years numbers between Same and All when it seems store numbers are the same -- that what made me think they do some clever sneaky stuff around trading days (and not just adjusting for any closed stores)

Otherwise the numbers make no sense ....a bit like those Comvita numbers the other day

True.. seems they have adjusted for actual trading days. Hmmm.

[sb9]

Sales as expected down due to lockdown blues more so in AUS than NZ, CAN doing well. Online sales tracking well, margin expansion will keep profits in tact and add to the pile of COH.
All good, here comes break out to $1..

[winner69]

Sales as expected down due to lockdown blues more so in AUS than NZ, CAN doing well. Online sales tracking well, margin expansion will keep profits in tact and add to the pile of COH.
All good, here comes break out to $1..

Sales down 12M so Gross Margin down say 8m and expenses up say 2m so profit maybe down 7m

Whoops forgot about corporate welfare so yes indeed profits intact :t_up:

No damage this quarter

[winner69]

Announcement on ASX last night ... on NZX today

Just a reminder that MHJ is an Australian based company

[Rawz]

Just having a look at Q1FY21 and it appears same store reflected trading days as well as this recent report. So all good. No sneaky stuff.

Analysts as per market screener think profits for FY22 will be 11% down on previous year.
All store sales only down 10% but higher margins.. so profit not down and looking at W69 'back of the envelope' calcs above might even be on par.. might see another AU$45m profit.

SB9 reminds us of the cash pile which was $72m at fy21 year end.

If Aus does huge increase in sales in Q2 this will fly. Canada did 18.8% with no lockdown. Common aussie lets see a 20%+ and this will be $1.50sp

[Waltzing]

NO cant be right... getting another maccona instant coffee..

[sb9]

NO cant be right... getting another maccona instant coffee..

Make it double or triple shot and we can kiss goodbye to your 85c call :p

[Rawz]

NO cant be right... getting another maccona instant coffee..

Lol. That was your 2000th post and it was in true Waltzingman style. Keep em coming :t_up:

[Waltzing]

"kiss goodbye to your 85c call "

wasnt it .80?

lucky purchases orders went through a while back then.:t_up:

who would have thought the Canucks were a bunch or Ringer Blingers.

Wonder where the stores are geographically in Canuck land.

See they are playing the oilers on the 13th?

[Waltzing]

Imagine the Special Div when its declared in 2023.

Some people are going to be looking in the windows of those MJH stores in disbelief.

[Waltzing]

orders going over the 1/2 million mark today.

go the Canucks...:t_up:

wheres it going to end today!!

Its just skating away!!!!

[Ltw]

Very nice jump :t_up:
Given the amount of closed store days it is a very impressive result

[Rawz]

$1.00? Will it hold 💎

[winner69]

$1.00? Will it hold 💎

Off course it will ...... even more to go today

[Waltzing]

Well isnt it a bit late for buying more WinnerGrinner?

What on earth are they thinking in Canuck land.

Buy orders building hourly.

Its almost too good to be true.

[Beau]

That’s is an amazing quarterly update considering the loss of 7396 trading days, great effort by all in very trying times. Getting the lift in price well deserved and more to come.

[clearasmud]

That’s is an amazing quarterly update considering the loss of 7396 trading days, great effort by all in very trying times. Getting the lift in price well deserved and more to come.
Compare the price of this to Lovista.
All things considered, what a joke.

[percy]

Compare the price of this to Lovista.
All things considered, what a joke.

Agree.
One opening new stores around the world,the other closing stores.
One a winner,the other a loser.
Easy choice which one to hold.
Just stand outside a Lovisa,then a Michael Hill,easy to see where the customers or in MHJ's case a lack of customers..

[sb9]

Agree.
One opening new stores around the world,the other closing stores.
One a winner,the other a loser.
Easy choice which one to hold.

Ouch, that's bit harsh towards MHJ :scared:

[Rawz]

Ouch, that's bit harsh towards MHJ :scared:

Percy will often pop onto the joyous MHJ thread and throw mud at poor ole MHJ, Last post if I recall was that he didnt think much of master Rob Fyfe.

Perhaps just doesnt like the old MHJ... when they were wasting money in USA expansion, tax issues, declining margins etc.

New MHJ is reborn with better management, better online offering, higher branded sales, making more by selling less etc

Ah well, turnaround stories not for everyone I guess.

[percy]

Compare the price of this to Lovista.
All things considered, what a joke.

My post was in reply to the above drivel.
ps.The trust I am a trustee of holds LOV shares.[bought under $4.00]

[Waltzing]

LOV has a very good underlying trend line over the last 12 months and an outstanding performance.

Its now an expensive stock and has to keep that performance up.

The companies may be in the same sector but their balance sheets are quite different and i mean VERY.

The ratios are also very different which makes MHJ.

For a cheaper price a Play.

The metrics as they stand for MHJ in relation to SP price good value for money.

RF is an outstanding director to have on any board.

M Hill has excellent taste in music.

[percy]

All au.$
5 years ago $16,300 would have bought 10,000 MHJ shares @ $1.63 a share.but only 4,836 LOV at $3.37.
Today the MHJ holding is worth $9,600...A loss of 41%
Today the LOV holding is worth $91,738. A gain of 562%

Its different this time....Yeah right...lol

[clearasmud]

My post was in reply to the above drivel.
ps.The trust I am a trustee of holds LOV shares.[bought under $4.00]

Hi Percy, the drivel is MHJ has a pe of 8,LOV pe of 80.But of course LOV thoroughly deserves that and MHJ being a dog deserves a pe of only 8.

[percy]

Hi Percy, the drivel is MHJ has a pe of 8,LOV pe of 80.But of course LOV thoroughly deserves that and MHJ being a dog deserves a pe of only 8.

Agree..........................................lol .

[Waltzing]

Yes LOV performance is outstanding.

[winner69]

After 7 weeks of Q1 same stores were +17% up

Full quarter same store sales up an impressive 15%

The last 6 weeks of the must have been less than impressive ….things slowing down ....maybe only 13% in last 6 weeks

[Waltzing]

Working in These types of industries can be very demanding.

Heres a comment from a competitor of MHJ. Might be fake who knows.

"Regional managers are horrible, cried twice because of them, so much pressure out on you to basically pressure customers into buying cheap and easily broken jewellery and to getting piercings."

[nztx]

so no fake or deferred dividends this time huh ? ;)

I think I'll stay put with what the hounds like :)

Happen to remember when MHJ were sub 50 cps & huge div yield at the time
then the balloon went up and an earlier pre Covid storm blew through the door ;)

the rest isn't worthwhile the mention ;)

[Waltzing]

Numbers are just numbers.

Its a percentage game. If you bought Lov at 4 and you sold at 4nx then you are going to LOVE IT.

it may pull back and move even higher but at 80 its likely to bounce around for a while till the next set of numbers are released.

If MHJ are in profit for all its regions its SP will move higher.

Results are just results.

MHJ has some history.

That is what markets are and its called Risk.

It also pays to have contacts inside industries.

[Rawz]

LOV and MHJ are simple different companies. No point in comparing.
LOV is a fashion company. Should compare it to zara or H&M in my opinion.
Cant seriously call it a Jeweller.

LOV has big growth priced in. Miss those targets and it be back to $4. Hit em and percy probably going to turn the $90k into $450k.

[Waltzing]

Mr P is a legend.

SKL not withstanding.

Yep LOVISA and MHJ are different but are both retailers.

Profit is only profit when you bank it.

I shop H&M in sweden and its a general fashion retailer with terrible cheap glasses. I always bring them back as presents! Usually use their big bags for stuffing gear in big bike wheelie bags.

LOVISA...

13096

[winner69]

After 7 weeks they said total sales down 2% with EBIT impact of $5m

Full quarter sales down 10% …I assume EBIT impact a lot more than $5m …..maybe $15m?

I’m starting to get concerned

[Rawz]

W69 remember the subsidies thou.

Let’s see what Aussie do coming out of lockdown. Canada bounced back 18-19%

[Waltzing]

Whole retail sector will surely take a hit.

this stock will attract the SHAZ buyer and thats what you want.

They will BUY AIR and they will buy MHJ.

Think of yourself as their wholesaler and you will sell to them when the news is really good.

Or you will dump if it all goes tits up.

[clearasmud]

Whole retail sector will surely take a hit.

this stock will attract the SHAZ buyer and thats what you want.

They will BUY AIR and they will buy MHJ.

Think of yourself as their wholesaler and you will sell to them when the news is really good.

Or you will dump if it all goes tits up.
That's correct.
This stock has a pattern of spike then Pullback.

[Waltzing]

A lot of retail stock patterns oscillate.

MHJ is or was a distressed assets.

Retail can be very cyclical.

[winner69]

W69 remember the subsidies thou.

Let’s see what Aussie do coming out of lockdown. Canada bounced back 18-19%

Yeah forgot those

F21 sales went up 64m (the great pent up demand story) but they still collected 20m odd in wage subsidies and rent relief

Some would say instead of making 45m ‘look through’ profit was only 30m

That would put them on a PE of 13 …maybe that’s how market thinks …market switched on eh.

Never mind all that …they tell a great story with big %age increases mentioned and use all the right words (often) …..and the chart is looking good ……so no worries as 130 share price by Christmas

[Waltzing]

Sometimes WinnerGrinner your as bold as a Beagle.

Then the Beagle waged his tail. WHS he actually tested the supply chain and also noticed that a cyclical rotation was occurring in the US probably.

Supply chain is big everyday on CNBC but the state of the NZ supply chain is another matter.

Cant see the port operations from the central north island.

Signet Jewellers in the US is seeing a wedding boom and its supply chain is by AIR freight.

The stock is up over 200% YTD with Cramer pushing it.

[Waltzing]

WinnerGrinner your a market mover..

orders building already for this little blinga zinger..

[Waltzing]

Info coming in from sydney is that work place experiences for the OTHER retailer in this sector are no better the average.

In fact the information suggests it may be on the negative side.

A designer out of Hong Kong used the H&A words multiple times.

(HORRIBLE), (AWEFUL) were the words used.

When lock down is over it might be time to get out next year and do some research of retail work place experiences.

Looking forward to visiting Glasson and chatting to a sales rep there.

Foot work pays off and getting that inside employee info can help with investing.

[winner69]

Rawz …..you’ll be pleased to know that Michael Hill recently pleaded poverty to the NZ government and got some dosh (wage subsidy that is)

Greedy bastards …could have used some of that $70m in cash they have.

[percy]

Info coming in from sydney is that work place experiences for the OTHER retailer in this sector are no better the average.

In fact the information suggests it may be on the negative side.

A designer out of Hong Kong used the H&A words multiple times.

(HORRIBLE), (AWEFUL) were the words used.

When lock down is over it might be time to get out next year and do some research of retail work place experiences.

Looking forward to visiting Glasson and chatting to a sales rep there.

Foot work pays off and getting that inside employee info can help with investing.

Just stand out side and see how many are walking out with product.
I find I get rather strange looks if I go into their store and look around..lol.

ps.Count customer numbers at LOV and MHJ.

[percy]

Rawz …..you’ll be pleased to know that Michael Hill recently pleaded poverty to the NZ government and got some dosh (wage subsidy that is)

Greedy bastards …could have used some of that $70m in cash they have.

I blame the chairman...

[winner69]

I blame the chairman...

Touché ………..some would agree

[Rawz]

Rawz …..you’ll be pleased to know that Michael Hill recently pleaded poverty to the NZ government and got some dosh (wage subsidy that is)

Greedy bastards …could have used some of that $70m in cash they have.

Shhhhh, we need to treat it like fight club rules. Rule number 1. We dont talk about wage subsidies.. ;)
Could be some newshub reporter lurking around ST and next thing we know MHJ front page news for taking the cash.

In fact MHJ should make the balance sheet look poorly.. Pay us the $70m! 19 cent special dividend should do it. :t_up:
MHJ a big fat cash cow anyway. 2018 they had -$28m net cash. $100m swing in 3 years omg amazing company

[Waltzing]

MHJ should keep the money.

And WHS should have taken the money.

MR P's point taken.

We are going to be doing as much research into MHJ products as possible over the next 12 months.

[percy]

Bring them on.

This lockdown is the fault of a useless system for MIQ.

Every retail business in auckland should take what ever they can.

This one was foreseen and the government is blind siding everyone with spin.

Take the money and if not needed return it but this thing is turning into a mess at the border and wait till the numbers spike and the government try not to show panic.

Hipkins ran out of ammo on hoskins on monday. He got slapped around and Mike went easy on him.

its a pigs breakfast.

it pray now and thats all that can be done.. PRAY.

Had correspondence with a weekend political editor and there was no push back. They know the shows up.

The government is a ship taking on water fast.

WHS were fools for not taking the money.

Your rant should be on the Coronavirus thread in Off Market discussion.Enough drivel on this thread already.

[Waltzing]

This will involve products being purchased in NZ and AUS and sent for Q inspection.

Look forward to hearing from Sydney regarding the results.

Then we can see how much drivel comes from LOV and MHJ.

Already had information regarding the work place practises of LOV in Australia.

Once this information from Q inspect is returned in the coming months hoping the share price hasnt moved much.

[percy]

This will involve products being purchased in NZ and AUS and sent for Q inspection.

Look forward to hearing from Sydney regarding the results.

Then we can see how much drivel comes from LOV and MHJ.

Already had information regarding the work place practises of LOV in Australia.

Once this information from Q inspect is returned in the coming months hoping the share price hasnt moved much.

The market is ahead of you liking LOV.
Morgan Stanley rates Lovisa (ASX:LOV) as overweight with a price target of $21. The broker believes Shane Fallscheer’s step down as CEO will likely spark an adverse market reaction. However, they suspect that execution risk for global growth could be minimized in the longer term given the new CEO’s strong global retail background.

Shares in Lovisa (ASX:LOV) closed 3.2 per cent higher at $18.96 yesterday.

[Waltzing]

new thread for LOVISA on ASX:

Mr P's post pasted up.

Keep thinking that they should get Courtney Love to front the brand!

Now please would never compare a poorly performing stock to man's best friend ever.

[Waltzing]

The next thing to do is to look inside these retail companies to see what work place practises are.

And of course get some independent quality testing of product ranges.

And the info coming back from designers is that MHJ product is better than some others.

Once we have that information we can decide on the qualities of management and make better decisions about investing for the longer term rather than just trading momentum and crisis.

Now that platforms are in place, technology developed and deployed there will be more time for research.

MHJ deserves some investigation as the people heading it are reputable educated people and cultured.

For those who have invested in this stock MHJ is a member of this organisation.

https://www.responsiblejewellery.com/

MHJ made changes to their website can be found here.

https://www.jewellermagazine.com/Article/8648/Michael-Hill-changes-website-removes-diamond-claims

MHJ information on the Product.

https://www.michaelhill.co.nz/article?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIu8T-uafJ8wIVyn4rCh0gsADOEAAYASAAEgKldfD_BwE

Guide to Products for consumers.

https://www.consumer.org.nz/articles/jewellery-buying-guide

[Waltzing]

independent Designer in Sydney in Zoom assured this evening that the MHJ range is good value for money.

Assured that no QA was required and that there was nothing to be concerned about in the MHJ range.

[clearasmud]

Thanks for that.

[sb9]

Smashing through today..

[Rawz]

Smashing through today..

The chart is a thing of beauty

Top performing retail stock on NZX ytd. Who would have thought.

[percy]

The chart is a thing of beauty

Top performing retail stock on NZX ytd. Who would have thought.

Crikey.?
Even the Aussies like it more than LOV today.
MHJ up 3.6% there, while LOV is only up 0.7%.

[Panda-NZ-]

Crikey.?
Even the Aussies like it more than LOV today.
MHJ up 3.6% there, while LOV is only up 0.7%.

I hold MHJ on ASX because of the higher aussie dollar, seems to be up a bit less than the NZX version.

[sb9]

Crikey.?
Even the Aussies like it more than LOV today.
MHJ up 3.6% there, while LOV is only up 0.7%.

Haha what they say, every dog has its day :p

[winner69]

MHJ has a pathetic stock turn - its only 1.2 times ……says that ring sits in the shop for almost a year before anybody falls in love with it anfd buys it

Every $ of stock generates $1.99 Gross Margin ..... Lovista generates $8.00 Gross Margin for each $ of stock

Who has the best return on inventory? The one who is much more highly regarded by the market I'd say

[Davo039]

I think you will find it is 3 times. Still low.

[Rawz]

Big difference is a LOV engagement ring costs $45 and a MHJ costs $14,500

[percy]

Big difference is a LOV engagement ring costs $45 and a MHJ costs $14,500

Other than price,any difference.?..................lol.

[nztx]

Big difference is a LOV engagement ring costs $45 and a MHJ costs $14,500


those more expensive MHJ rings probably warm the shelves for longer than a year, or more than 2 or 3
if they don't get 'borrowed' first ..;)

[Beagle]

Other than price,any difference.?..................lol.

Probably no difference most people can tell lol

The one time I stepped into a MHJ store a few years ago to have a look at their watch selection, (my Gold Seiko watch that had kept perfect time for more than 30 years was looking a bit worse for wear and tear) all they sold was house brand MHJ mens watches. Why would you take a chance on a house brand when you know a brand that's tried true and tested over time to work perfectly ?

I posted that observation on here quite some time back. Maybe the "rocket scientists" in charge of brand selection read it ? Things are looking up for MHJ shareholders because it would seem they have "seen the light" https://www.michaelhill.co.nz/watches/seiko-watches?ref=quicklink

1.2 times stock turn is a shocker though and that 5 year comparative share price performance with LOV was very interesting. No wonder Kw has been in love with LOV :)

I continue to believe people's tendency to behave like magpie's and collect shiny things to make themselves feel better during Covid will wane in due course when they don't have so much need for retail therapy medication.

P.S. I purchased a new Seiko gold watch from a proper Jewellery store that had a wide selection of the world's leading brands...something I note MHJ still doesn't have. Hmmm

[clearasmud]

Lets hope people have been permanently changed by covid.
I wouldn't assume these guys don't know what they are doing.

[Rawz]

Probably no difference most people can tell lol

The one time I stepped into a MHJ store a few years ago to have a look at their watch selection, (my Gold Seiko watch that had kept perfect time for more than 30 years was looking a bit worse for wear and tear) all they sold was house brand MHJ mens watches. Why would you take a chance on a house brand when you know a brand that's tried true and tested over time to work perfectly ?

I posted that observation on here quite some time back. Maybe the "rocket scientists" in charge of brand selection read it ? Things are looking up for MHJ shareholders because it would seem they have "seen the light" https://www.michaelhill.co.nz/watches/seiko-watches?ref=quicklink

1.2 times stock turn is a shocker though and that 5 year comparative share price performance with LOV was very interesting. No wonder Kw has been in love with LOV :)

I continue to believe people's tendency to behave like magpie's and collect shiny things to make themselves feel better during Covid will wane in due course when they don't have so much need for retail therapy medication.

P.S. I purchased a new Seiko gold watch from a proper Jewellery store that had a wide selection of the world's leading brands...something I note MHJ still doesn't have. Hmmm

The highlighted part of your post was originally one of the main reasons I bought into MHJ awhile back. It was a very simplistic investment theory- due to covid a big chunk of money spent on travel would transfer to other extravagant items- jewellery being one. So far it's paid off in diamonds. MHJ is up 42% ytd.

I reckon there is still runway to this theory. At least for the rest of FY22. Canada showed nearly 20% rebound in sales coming out of lockdown and I expect the same or more from NZ and AUS. Just in time for a potentially record setting Christmas trading period.

As per market screener FY22 eps will come in at au$.011, the analysts were wrong last year by 10% and have recently upped their est from $40m to $41.4m, so it is conservative in my opinion. That puts MHJ on a forward P/E of 9.51. $70m cash in the bank... cant see much downside here.

GP margins are still going up as per Q1 update, could be close to 65%. No worries about freight costs. Doesnt cost much to air freight a diamond ring or gold necklace.

One can only wonder where a new normal dividend policy will land. But potentially we could see yields of 7-10% in the coming years.

MHJ have consistently produced sales of over $550m even after closing nearly 50 stores since 2017.
Online sales and branded sales increasing each year.

Everything is pointing in the right direction for me to continue to hold. If I was to share one concern it would be how much the govt subsidies are boosting profit vs replacing profit. hmmm time will tell.

Disc. Sold some at $1 to buy into the ARV placement. But still my no1 top holding.

PS. Beagle you should have bought a smart watch you old dog :p

[Waltzing]

"Beagle you should have bought a smart watch you old dog"

i keep getting shanghaied by a little whatch shop in den haag every time i do the Mauritshuis.

you walk from the train station past all those beer cafes and after a drink that lovely little whatch shop gets me every time.

know its only a matter of time.

nothing like the real thing.

[winner69]

Share price not kicking on as it should be

Update excitement over ….share price probably drift back below $1 now ..bugger

[Rawz]

Share price not kicking on as it should be

Update excitement over ….share price probably drift back below $1 now ..bugger

I know you don't believe that W69. Slap a forward P/E of 10 on it and let's settle for a $1.15 sp while we wait to see how the x-mas trading goes for Aus/NZ coming out of lockdown.

Then when the trading update comes confirming that it was record x-mas trading for the company and profits will be at least on par with last year i.e. AU$45m. The market must finally re-rate them with a forward P/E of 13 and we land at $1.60 sp sometime next year :cool:

[winner69]

I know you don't believe that W69. Slap a forward P/E of 10 on it and let's settle for a $1.15 sp while we wait to see how the x-mas trading goes for Aus/NZ coming out of lockdown.

Then when the trading update comes confirming that it was record x-mas trading for the company and profits will be at least on par with last year i.e. AU$45m. The market must finally re-rate them with a forward P/E of 13 and we land at $1.60 sp sometime next year :cool:

On a PE of about 13 now ……adjusted normalised earnings

[Rawz]

On a PE of about 13 now ……adjusted normalised earnings

You're being far too bearish W69. Who knows what normalised earnings are?
One thing I do know is you cannot simply take $15m subsidies off last years NPAT figure and arrive at $30m.

MHJ in the past have made more than $30m when doing $550m+ revenue and that's on worse margins.

Analyst's say about $40m npat for the next 3 years.

[sb9]

ASM tomorrow, be interesting to get further updates and hopefully another bump to sp.

[winner69]

ASM tomorrow, be interesting to get further updates and hopefully another bump to sp.

Yep big day ....Christmas promo launch ....we will get Christmas present early as good news on sales will see share price go to 120

[Ltw]

Sales seem very strong given the amount of time in lockdown winner

[Sideshow Bob]

ASM tomorrow, be interesting to get further updates and hopefully another bump to sp.

AGM Presos

357820.pdf (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com) (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/381649/357820.pdf)

[Rawz]

Did anything good come from the Q&A? Wasn't able to listen in.

[clearasmud]

Did anything good come from the Q&A? Wasn't able to listen in.
Mentioned low cost on line sales to new jurisdictions and low cost jewellry
They want to invest to grow the business.

[Rawz]

MHJ probably sit in the $1 to $1.10 range until half year results i guess.

[Waltzing]

Yes sadly you might be right and it wont see much LOV till then...:mad ;:

you never know ... 90 cents?

[Rawz]

Yes sadly you might be right and it wont see much LOV till then...:mad ;:

you never know ... 90 cents?

Almost there. Oops, you meant $1.09 right?

[clearasmud]

Almost there. Oops, you meant $1.09 right?
Ha ha. And on volume too.
Old high was $1.80.
Lovisa,arguably a superior company is now on a pe of 95 compared to our 8.7!

[Waltzing]

"1.09"

No No No. terrible stock turn on this stock.

Lov has lifted off! Exactly they are in completely different segments of the market according to the designer we conferenced and are not even remotely similar. The product sources and manufacture are completely opposite models and cater for a different demographic. If Telsa was LOV it would be recalling product every other day.

MHJ has a hill to climb to get to 1.90...

stand by the .90... back up the EV scooter.

we only need one terrible report should do it.

Oh looks like AUS opened up and actually held the Cup and then lost it to NZ...

hmmm well you never know what nature will throw at AUS...shutting down the entire country in a HUGE dust storm for months at a time.

or if we are lucky it will be something like Exodus 9:23.

Biblical stuff.

Moses stretched out his staff toward the sky, and the Lord sent thunder and hail, and fire ran down to the earth. And the Lord rained hail on the land of Egypt.

That should do it..

[Waltzing]

Ah NOOO! 1.10!!!!

Just not enough of this sparkling gem of a stock.

[winner69]

Ah NOOO! 1.10!!!!

Just not enough of this sparkling gem of a stock.



Thats what rawz et al are finding out .....if you want more and more you have to pay more and more

You'd think they be a bit more circumspect with their buying today though

[Waltzing]

A buy at .90 W(n).

better look back and see if the software did anything back then at sub .90.

Phew looks like the software did its job after all...

Gin and Tonic soon after hill climbing...wash down the lactic acid from the red zone training band.

[Rawz]

Thats what rawz et al are finding out .....if you want more and more you have to pay more and more

You'd think they be a bit more circumspect with their buying today though

MHJ due to announce their online play into a 4th market. Maybe cats out of the bag and inside money buying in on what will be an exiting growth opportunity.

[winner69]

MHJ due to announce their online play into a 4th market. Maybe cats out of the bag and inside money buying in on what will be an exiting growth opportunity.

A game changer?

[Rawz]

A game changer?
Billion dollar company anyone? Lol

[clearasmud]

Billion dollar company anyone? Lol
The Aussies know a good thing. Trading at $1.07 =$1.115nzd there.

[Beau]

The Aussies know a good thing. Trading at $1.07 =$1.115nzd there.

Closed in Aussie at $1.08 all looking good for start of next week. :t_up:

[Waltzing]

certainly a retailer with some customer numbers building back up and no supply problems unlike the building industry.

Customers seem reasonably happy with the product and thats the main thing. Profit before a happy customer is not good.

[Greekwatchdog]

Customers seem reasonably happy with the product and thats the main thing. Profit before a happy customer is not good.[/QUOTE]

Without profit there are no customers as businesses will go broke. Customers will pay what they are happy to pay about the item selected. They don't think of profit.

[Waltzing]

"Without profit there are no customers as businesses will go broke"

taken for granted.. ripping off the customer is not good perhaps what should have been stated..

[sb9]

From a poster on HC..

***
Bullish comment today by Spheria in the AFR.
(Spheria is one of the main shareholders).

Main reasons given by the fund manager :
- turnaround by new management,
- massive discount to its peers,
- store footprint mature, but well placed to expand the digital business (+ 50 % last year),
- plenty of upside in store operating metrics,
- "company currently trading on only 4 times pre-tax earnings".
***

[winner69]

From a poster on HC..

***
Bullish comment today by Spheria in the AFR.
(Spheria is one of the main shareholders).

Main reasons given by the fund manager :
- turnaround by new management,
- massive discount to its peers,
- store footprint mature, but well placed to expand the digital business (+ 50 % last year),
- plenty of upside in store operating metrics,
- "company currently trading on only 4 times pre-tax earnings".
***

Thanks sb9

Seems e can't lose holding MHJ for while

The market will wake up one ...oon I hope

[Rawz]

Thanks sb9

Seems e can't lose holding MHJ for while

The market will wake up one ...oon I hope

YTD return 50.68% Best performing retail stock on the nzx this year.
No1 holding for me. Really saved my portfolio returns this year after hopeless PX1 destroyed some of my capital.

People should also take heart from retail Master Rod Duke comments this morning. If he says retail spend will be higher than last year it probably will be.. wow imagine if MHJ do more than last year! Could do $46-48m in profits, OMG this is cheap!

[Waltzing]

This spring enthusiasm from investors is what markets love to hear.

[Rawz]

Last week Master Beagle said on the WHS thread that he didnt like WHS and preferred another NZX retail stock with international store footprint.

It was a big tip from a seasoned investor. He clearly meant MHJ!!! :t_up:

Load up boys and girls its not too late. Fair value $1.50.
50% gain still sitting on the table

[Waltzing]

Well one wonders if this RAW determination to shop and enjoy the summer will pervade the character of the country.

MJH is a bit of a speculative outlier but may yet BUILD BACK BETTER than before.

[winner69]

Cartier pretty confident in the future ....spending zillions on a posh new store in sydney


Maybe not MHJ customers but a sign of confidence

[sb9]

Early price match suggests indicative opening of A$ 1.12 on ASX. Price on NZX currently at NZ $1.12.

[Waltzing]

113! 113 ..... better buy on a pull back... that big big pull back ..any day....what is the market thinking..:mad ;:

This stock is getting above itself..

Anymore increases and holders will start feeling bullish..:eek2:

[Waltzing]

what a melt up !!! 114!!

[Rawz]

what a melt up !!! 114!!

FOMO kicking in on the run up to $1.50

[Waltzing]

Q the LICRA

(https://www.inach.net/licra/)glad man on the SKY Broad Band ADD..

grabs the microphone and sing something..what a star ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izOdvBmTDh0

[sb9]

FOMO kicking in on the run up to $1.50

Only 30% upside from hereon and keeps diminishing by the day :p

[sb9]

Courtesy of HC, another fund manager has bullish case for MHJ as per snippet below:

***
Looking to MHJ’s earnings power, we see MHJ starting to pick up up tailwinds on the back of a great FY21 result. They recently gave an FY22 Q1 update which saw same store sales up 15.5%, up from the corresponding quarter last year. Margins continue to rise on the back of their digital expansion and their additional omni-channel offerings - including Ship-from-store, Click & Reserve and Virtual Selling - all of which are higher margin channels. MHJ lost over 10,000 total trading days in FY21 and, while they lost 7,400 days in the September quarter heading out of lockdowns and into the Christmas spending season in Australia and New Zealand, they should see a surge in spending for retail across the board which should drive MHJ’s sales. There is a lot of pent up demand for consumer spending and we have already seen how it positively affected sales in Canada upon reopening. Management recently noting that “our Canadian business has been flying, delivering impressive sales and margin growth every week.” The play here isn’t like most retail store strategies, which is typically to open up new stores and expand their physical presence. The strategy here is to increase digital sales through marketplaces like The Iconic, thus driving margins and opening up their products to new customers. MHJ has also done a terrific job at growing their loyalty program to over 800k members in less than eighteen months; this will be essential to leverage their digital capabilities.

If MHJ sees the demand that we expect upon reopening and heading into Christmas, they should see $50m+ NPAT for FY22 which will put them at less than 8x earnings. All while paying a cool 4.5% dividend yield. If MHJ were to rerate to 10x FY22 earnings then this would put them at a share price of around $1.30.

MHJ is one of our favourite stocks to take advantage of the reopening theme

(source : Tamim Asset Management)
***

[Rawz]

$1.30 aussie. $1.35sp nzd.

$50m +NPAT omg wouldnt that be amazing!

Nice to see the market finally waking up to this great turnaround story. A story that this thread was discussing back when the SP was $0.50cents. Shows the small retail investor can get in and make a buck. Maybe now that fund managers are getting in its time to get out :mellow: look for the next unloved stock. I reckon HMY is it. No way. This still has legs to run!

10 p/e could be fair right now but really doesnt price in the online opportunity for this iconic brand. Depending on how this digital expansion goes and coupled with consistent earnings growth per annum we will see a continued re-rate over the years ahead. BGP trades on 15-16 P/E because of consistent earnings growth.

4.5% dividend yield. Could be double that. What is MHJ going to do with all the cash? Cant keep hoarding it in the bank.

[Sideshow Bob]

Another good start to the day!! **insert rocket emoji**

[Rawz]

Be $1.20 by the end of the week :eek2:

What a run

[sb9]

Be $1.20 by the end of the week :eek2:

What a run

I would say more like by end of today and perhaps 1.30 by end of week :D

[percy]

I would say more like by end of today and perhaps 1.30 by end of week :D

You guys are doing well,enjoy your run.

[Rawz]

You guys are doing well,enjoy your run.

You are still winning, Percy :)

LOV.asx up 85% YTD.
MHJ.NZX up 61.64% YTD.

[sb9]

You guys are doing well,enjoy your run.

Thank you, so we're "well positioned".

[Rawz]

OMG it just hit $1.20, but has since pulled back.

What is going on? Where is Waltzingman? lol

[clearasmud]

Waltzingman's gone back to bed.

[Waltzing]

No No its almost a big pull back for another buy...

sunny day testing carbon fibre looms on central north island lake. A dutch girl said "All you swedes look alike". What a complement since im Born NZ half Irish / English.

what a DAY! Get out there people!

Waiting on a Trek that has taken 4 weeks for big repair. Lucky we had a spare carbon big 9 wheeled light weight mountain bike for on off road, (fast off road bike).

Sports equipment from europe is now very expensive.

Need a lot more of this sparkling gem of a stock.

No chance ...

[clearasmud]

Nice one Waltzingman!

[Rawz]

I would say more like by end of today and perhaps 1.30 by end of week :D

I think you are right SB9. $1.20 done and dusted.

$1.30 by Friday. 10 cents not too much of an ask for this gem of a stock. Only another 8.3%

[sb9]

I think you are right SB9. $1.20 done and dusted.

$1.30 by Friday. 10 cents not too much of an ask for this gem of a stock. Only another 8.3%

Sure, bit of window dressing at close on ASX 1 share transacted at A$1.185, while VWAP is around 1.15, lol

[Waltzing]

" fearless retail shoppers"

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126949735/retail-return-no-sign-of-nerves-among-shoppers-retail-nz

missed the momentary 115...to busy adjusting the sun roof on the merc while travelling the autoban to Hamiville.

and finding the sun block as the whole roof is glass.

gotta be another pull back soon the graph is well above the moving averages.

[Sideshow Bob]

Still on a tear.....$1.23

[Waltzing]

Its enough to drink you to a hot chocolate in ..despair..

1.10 ... 1.10... 1.10 ... pavlovs dog.. 1.10...

[Rawz]

Houston, we have a problem! Seems the rocket ship has lost power to the boosters :scared:

[clearasmud]

Houston, we have a problem! Seems the rocket ship has lost power to the boosters :scared:

I think we are in the main (3rd?) wave up.
Expecting to see $1.50 when this completes.
Am I dreamin?

[Waltzing]

needs to consolidate at 1.10... Pavlovs dog...

1.10... 1.10... 1.10

[Waltzing]

wet central north island day... History channel a nice MHJ Advert.... sparkling gems on TV alongside ARTs Channel... there you go .