MHJ - Michael Hill International.

[winner69]

JobKeeper in OZ …..I note in this notice that MHJ said NO to whether they had made any voluntary contributions to the Commonwealth

Good for shareholders ….probably made on the deal

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/382804/359184.pdf

[percy]

JobKeeper in OZ …..I note in this notice that MHJ said NO to whether they had made any voluntary contributions to the Commonwealth

Good for shareholders ….probably made on the deal

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MHJ/382804/359184.pdf

A lot of money involved.
Over $23.5 mil.

[Waltzing]

Lovely adverts on Rialto..

[Rawz]

A lot of money involved.
Over $23.5 mil.

You reckon any of that boost profits vs replaces what they would have otherwise earned if it weren’t for the lockdowns?

[winner69]

You reckon any of that boost profits vs replaces what they would have otherwise earned if it weren’t for the lockdowns?

Don’t know what Percy would say …..but I reckon boosted profits

[percy]

You reckon any of that boost profits vs replaces what they would have otherwise earned if it weren’t for the lockdowns?

I certainly do.
I would point out I am disgusted at the number of very profitable Australian companies I own shares in,who have claimed huge amounts of Jobkeeper payments,and then pay increased dividends..
All very legal,but in my opinion immoral.
Pleasing seeing the ASX making companies declare them.

LOV claimed $18mil compared to MHJ's $23.5 mil.

[Rawz]

I think W69 and Percy are right but havnt a clue how much the number is. Time will tell i guess

SP still strong bang on $1.20. What a run it has had.

I must admit I have sold a few MHJ last week. It was my largest holding for a long time but now is a more comfortable 10% of my portfolio. I guess nobody should have MHJ as their top stock position apart from the Hill family. But heck, it was severally undervalued for so long, hard not to. Now trading on better metrics so time to take some bags off the table.

I personally still believe in this turnaround story and am looking forward to half year result and the announcement of the new online sales avenue. Hence the healthy 10% position down from over 30%.
Margins still have 100bp to run to get back to historic levels.

Over the last 3 years branded sales have increased from 32% to 42% and digital sales $16m to $34m.
Revenue per store increased from $1.86m to $1.95m.
Cash from -$24m to $72m
Profit from $16m to $45m

What a company.

[Waltzing]

Cultured Man Sir MH.

very Nice adverts.

[Waltzing]

What goes up must come down... 1.10... BUY..

[sb9]

What goes up must come down... 1.10... BUY..

Like you been waiting for your fill from 89c lol :p

[Waltzing]

well the software did buy at .90 lucky....

but ... more of a good thing and those Adverts on Rialto were great!!

[Rawz]

well the software did buy at .90 lucky....

but ... more of a good thing and those Adverts on Rialto were great!!

software needs an upgrade ;) missed so many gains

[Sideshow Bob]

What goes up must come down... 1.10... BUY..

Waltz, you're almost as reptitive of Michael himself.....

Michael Hill.....Jeweller
Gold Gold Silver Silver Chain Chain Sale Sale

Michael Hill Jeweller: ‘Embarrassing’ ad behind $563m jewellery empire | news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site (https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/eight-words-that-turned-michael-hill-jeweller-into-a-global-empire/news-story/2aad8faffdafa962f5f3462a1c8553d7)

[Waltzing]

Oh dear!!!

well the ADD on Rialto wasnt too bad....

I did add to a repetitive statement above the addendum "pavlov's Dog"... No insult to beagles and they never stay in one place long enough to repeat themselves...

as the price goes skyward the price changes on the statement line.. or down as the case may be.

[Waltzing]

Who's buying ... insider info....

There arnt even any new adds with that slick salesmen ... wonder what jewellery people over 60 buy?

Ill have to ask the most elegant of pro dancers over 60...someone did say there was some work done though... lifts and tucks..

[sb9]

Stronger today, moving close to 1.30s mark

[Waltzing]

be interesting to know the demographic that whatch's Rialto channel on sky and why they placed advert there...

[Rawz]

be interesting to know the demographic that whatch's Rialto channel on sky and why they placed advert there...

High class fancy people like yourself Waltzing. People with loads of money that have a taste for the finer things in life- like branded Michael Hill Jewelry 🤩

[mistaTea]

High class fancy people like yourself Waltzing. People with loads of money that have a taste for the finer things in life- like branded Michael Hill Jewelry 朗

Sums it up perfectly.

The kind of people who are willing to pay $11.18 extra per month for one additional Sky channel containing niche international drama and documentaries.

The kind of people who have a few spare bob lying around.

[clearasmud]

Sums it up perfectly.

The kind of people who are willing to pay $11.18 extra per month for one additional Sky channel containing niche international drama and documentaries.

The kind of people who have a few spare bob lying around.

I did my dough on SKT. Bought them for the dividends just before they totally imploded.
Lost over 30k.
Hope you get out with your shirt Mr Tea.
On a more positive note MHJ closed at a record 119c in Australia. Those guys know value when they see it.

[sb9]

Pre-open suggests and indicative open at A$1.20, looks like another strong day in the offing.

[clearasmud]

Pre-open suggests and indicative open at A$1.20, looks like another strong day in the offing.

Chomp NZ$1.24

[Rawz]

Having a look at the YTD performances of the NZX listed retailers and MHJ is an absolute standout. Completely blown the other retailers out of the water. HLG has been a bit of a flop but maybe next year is their year?

MHJ. 71%
WHS. 43%
BGP. 34%
KMD. 25%
HLG. 5%

[winner69]

Having a look at the YTD performances of the NZX listed retailers and MHJ is an absolute standout. Completely blown the other retailers out of the water. HLG has been a bit of a flop but maybe next year is their year?

MHJ. 71%
WHS. 43%
BGP. 34%
KMD. 25%
HLG. 5%

Every dog has its day?

Can it be sustained?

[Rawz]

Every dog has its day?

Can it be sustained?
No not sustainable.

But let’s see how the half year report looks. I’m picking a biggie. That should be enough to push it to $1.50

[Waltzing]

...those adds on Rialto could be a driver.

[mistaTea]

...those adds on Rialto could be a driver.

Yeah.

I just hope they are paying Sky…handsomely for the air time…

[Waltzing]

The adverts on Rialto are mystery as it must be targeting a very small market segment. A lot of european films and some in swedish.

[sb9]

Firing all cylinders again today..

[Rawz]

Just incredible. The run MHJ has been on. How good

[Waltzing]

:eek2::t_up:

[winner69]

Just incredible. The run MHJ has been on. How good

:):):t_up::ohmy: :t_up:

[Rawz]

:):):t_up::ohmy: :t_up:
🚀🚀🚀 to the moon

[Beau]

Stronger today, moving close to 1.30s mark

Thats a decent step towards it today. Family member works in jewellery store said sales for the day seem very strong for a month out from Christmas, could be people shopping early but good sign leading up.

[Waltzing]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knLd8bfeWtI

[percy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knLd8bfeWtI

Well I bought my first retail stock for a very long time yesterday.
Something a bit more practicable than bling,SSG in Oz, Shaver Shop Group.Like their online success.

ONLINE SALES REPRESENT 28.6% OF TOTAL SALES
Website Visitation
Online sales have grown 54.7% per annum (on average) since FY17 to reach $61.2m in FY21.

Their agm presentation makes for good reading.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02449976-3A580692?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

[Waltzing]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCVmjS4nJVg

= >

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5Sfw58jApo

[Muse]

Rob Fyfe just sold $508k of shares at $1.27 per share…

[winner69]

Rob Fyfe just sold $508k of shares at $1.27 per share…

Doubled his money so who can blame him.... nice Xmas presents

Still holds zillions

[Sideshow Bob]

Doubled his money so who can blame him.... nice Xmas presents

Still holds zillions

That's a pretty big deck!!

[Rawz]

Doubled his money so who can blame him.... nice Xmas presents

Still holds zillions

He backed up the truck in the 30 cent range last year. So quadrupled that investment wow

[Muse]

I originally read the announcement incorrectly and posted he bought $500k, got giddy and posted. Realised i was wrong and wuickly changed it to “sold” - twat moment.

[percy]

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/mhj.nzx-359362/
Paid 38.5 cps...Sold $1.27 cps ...Gross profit $442,500 on cost price of $192,500.
Clever.About $7,000 pw he owned the shares for.

[Waltzing]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDTZ7iX4vTQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fpu5a0Bl8eY)

[Sideshow Bob]

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/mhj.nzx-359362/
Paid 38.5 cps...Sold $1.27 cps ...Gross profit $442,500 on cost price of $192,500.
Clever.About $7,375 pw he owned the shares for.

The definition of "well-positioned"

Can't begrudge him selling a few.

[percy]

The definition of "well-positioned"

Can't begrudge him selling a few.

Certainly can not.$1,000 a day.!

[Waltzing]

Some air hopefully coming out of the balloon ... filling in the Gap up... Dip to 1.12?

[Muse]

Some air hopefully coming out of the balloon ... filling in the Gap up... Dip to 1.12?

getting closer to your dip level Waltingironman - down 6% in early trade (on a might 15k of turnover)

[Waltzing]

What a Market....Europe next for a slamming ... Maybe even Russia..

Price is right....

Its a Turkey Shoot...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9EBemu3T5o

Take Some....

[clearasmud]

What a Market....Europe next for a slamming ... Maybe even Russia..

Price is right....

Its a Turkey Shoot...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9EBemu3T5o

Take Some....
Did you take advantage here?

[Waltzing]

A Private trading company i hold shares in Bought. Not me personally. Personally i bought at .90 some time ago.

[Rawz]

And when Waltz says he bought at .90 some time ago, he doesnt mean Oct 2021... I think he means Oct 2018 right before it trended all the way down to 20cent :ohmy:

Looking forward to that half year result announcement. I bet it will be a biggie.

[Waltzing]

"Oct 2018 " was mountain biking in the snows of sweden at the time i think...

No at that point i think one of portfolios had HLG as in fact one portfolio first owned HLG back well before the GFC.

MHJ is a recent buy, really not even serious until .90 showed the possibility of an O Neil upward trend...

Some time ago ... few months...

Ages ago a few years...Cant remember unless viewed in the databases pre Convid...

Yonks , pre GFC.

MHJ has really been just a bit of fun... add a bit of a gamble into the mix...

[Waltzing]

108! its either a wonderful trading stock or an investment stock... take your pick...

[Sideshow Bob]

108! its either a wonderful trading stock or an investment stock... take your pick...

Hope you got hit at $1.08 - back to $1.15 already.

[Rawz]

Retail stocks may be past their best trading days but nobody can deny MHJ is still cheap. Trading on a 9.44 P/E historical. Even if they turn in 41m npat next year its a forward p/e of 10.40. Lots of cash in the bank and we'll see at least 8 cents in dividends each year.

Thought they would have announced the foray into a 4th market (digitally) by now. Maybe early next year.

Pretty solid hold imo. Could be surprised with higher profit, maybe do another $45m since MHJ keep the subsidies.

[Waltzing]

"Hope you got hit at $1.08 "

looking at something lower!!! as all NZ portfolios currently have some... Not overweight. Would load up if for some reasons markets sold off... a quick war in the Donbas should do it Putin losses his mind...

or unvaccinated zombie's took over parliament...

China decided to invade India....

anything else? The Palestinians raise the dead and walk across GAZA climbing the concert walls and all get shot by IRON DOME.

Jacinda admits they all whatch every episode of Cathine the Great and have decided that a planned Bolshevick revolution lead by Maori activists is the only solution after there TIK TOK government fails farther in the poles.

This crashes the stock market for a whole afternoon until KFC, Mack's and Piz Hut run the biggest ever discounts on december the 15th nation wide.

The activist's all throw down their placards and decide the prices are to good to miss.

Resulting in the most profitable day ever for fast food in NZ.

[Waltzing]

oh no the market is believing the story... its staying up again...

[Waltzing]

Fan club... what an investment... unbelievable ...

boom...over 1.20..again!!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfCLt0kTd5E

[winner69]

Percy put this on the Lovista thread - same could be said about Michael Hill couldn't it? ... except for the 'creating great excitment in store' bit

From Livewire's Jun Bel Llu.:.
I would call it a big year next year, it's because it's got a new CEO. And also, its earnings are going through a transition - a transition as in this business was impacted significantly by COVID-19. All the shops were shut, even though you can buy trinkets online, but Lovisa's is very much tailored towards events. There were no weddings, no events, pretty much.

In 2022, when the world reopens, this company will have very, very strong earnings. In the first quarter of the year, they have already said that the first 20 weeks of the year, it will be doing over 25%, like for like. And over 40% total sales growth. That's just an incredible amount of growth. With the new CEO, he's brought with him very significant experience across Emerging Asia, China and India.

So, we think there'll be a lot of focus on those markets and that will continue to grow. The company has such a unique business model and it creates such excitement within its store. It really brings customers to itself. If it can replicate that around the world, their addressable market's enormous. So, Lovisa is the one that I think will do great in 2022.

[Waltzing]

both retailers, but from a purely investor point of view one has a global model that works in every country. One is more likely to shift its market listing to a bigger exchange one day where as MHJ wont.

One is a more cultured company with a completely different market demographic and not perhaps suited to every market across the globe.

[Greekwatchdog]

Looks like positive trading update.
29 December 2021
Michael Hill International Limited (ASX/NZX: MHJ) today provides an update following the key Christmas trading period
and an early indication of performance for the half year ended 26 December 2021.
Having successfully navigated extended periods of closures from July to November across Australia and New Zealand,
the Company was delighted to have all stores open globally for the critical Christmas trading period. Even with the
uncertain trading conditions stemming from the Delta and more recent Omicron COVID variant, Michael Hill delivered
both sales growth and sustained margin expansion throughout November and December. Following this strong
performance, the Company now believes it will deliver a first half year result well above the prior year FY21H1
comparable EBIT result of $44.6m1
.
Release Dates
The Company anticipates it will release the usual market announcements as set out below:
Announcement Release Date
FY22 Second Quarter Trading Update Friday 14 January 2022
FY22H1 Financial Results Wednesday 23 February 2022

[Rawz]

Looks like positive trading update.
29 December 2021
Michael Hill International Limited (ASX/NZX: MHJ) today provides an update following the key Christmas trading period
and an early indication of performance for the half year ended 26 December 2021.
Having successfully navigated extended periods of closures from July to November across Australia and New Zealand,
the Company was delighted to have all stores open globally for the critical Christmas trading period. Even with the
uncertain trading conditions stemming from the Delta and more recent Omicron COVID variant, Michael Hill delivered
both sales growth and sustained margin expansion throughout November and December. Following this strong
performance, the Company now believes it will deliver a first half year result well above the prior year FY21H1
comparable EBIT result of $44.6m1
.
Release Dates
The Company anticipates it will release the usual market announcements as set out below:
Announcement Release Date
FY22 Second Quarter Trading Update Friday 14 January 2022
FY22H1 Financial Results Wednesday 23 February 2022

OMG. Well above last years record result?!!!! MHJ- you beauty. Absolute gem of a stock. NZXs greatest retail stock.

Trading on a historical P/E of 10 still..

[winner69]

29.1m in H119 to 31.6m H120 to 44.6m in H121 to more than 44.6m in H122 is pretty good …not staggering though

What is Comparable EBIT ……do they leave a few nasty things out or something

Go MHJ …..so rawz can retire earlier than anticipated

[Rawz]

It's staggering when the store count went from 306 (2019) to 290 (2020) to 285 (2021).

Earning more with less is always good.

I reckon $42m HF npat.
$50m FY22 npat.

Forward p/e 9.85 based on todays $1.29. Or has it already gone over $1.30? :eek2:

Where is waltzingman?

[Rawz]

Winner also the context to remember is we were half expecting a pull back in sales like HLG. You know- a reversion to the mean type thing.

This is a big upgrade in my mind and expect to see $1.50 sp soon enough

Just have a look at the chart. The MAs a very strong line up.

Gee even Beagle might be getting interested after this update

[Waltzing]

what happened? oh dear should have sold everything when the market was up and put it all on Diamond...

gosh.... gosh...

what will the rest of the retailers have for the market come April...

could it really be an Indian summer.

could HLG get a lift from no lock downs in AUS going forward?

its an edge of your deck chair summer!

its as exciting as whatching the black cap's playing India! Who are they playing anyway?

[winner69]

Winner also the context to remember is we were half expecting a pull back in sales like HLG. You know- a reversion to the mean type thing.

This is a big upgrade in my mind and expect to see $1.50 sp soon enough

Just have a look at the chart. The MAs a very strong line up.

Gee even Beagle might be getting interested after this update

Phillips Curve saying good for jewellery sales

[Waltzing]

"Phillips Curve "

obviously something more powerful going on here than a silly water machine that doesnt really work....

.. it was obvious wasnt it... obvious... :eek2:

[Halebop]

Jewellers have been a beneficiary of Covid - substitution spending due to restricted entertainment and travel options. The elevated sales and margins will no doubt pare back when we get to something closer to an old normal but this likely has a couple more years to play out.

The interesting thing for me is that MHJ normally operate with around $5-10m cash and $35m Debt at year end vs $72m Cash and no debt at last balance date. So they are operating with around $100m in surplus capital or almost 26 cents per share. A stronger half year would further augment this. Caution and first lock down near death experiences no doubt prompt this liquidity conservatism but suspect a combination of higher dividends, capital returns, buy backs or acquisitions in MHJs future.

[Waltzing]

Gosh.... balance sheets... no debt... high dividends... arnt these the rules for buying a stock....re O Neil...

if you grew up in a legal and accounting family... they are the rules and you dont even have to be a member of the society to learn them early in life....

[sb9]

Could well be $2 by the time all big boys return back from holidays....bit of last minute race for me personally for among MHJ, RAK and SKT for biggest return this year, fascinating stuff :D

[Rawz]

Jewellers have been a beneficiary of Covid - substitution spending due to restricted entertainment and travel options. The elevated sales and margins will no doubt pare back when we get to something closer to an old normal but this likely has a couple more years to play out.

The interesting thing for me is that MHJ normally operate with around $5-10m cash and $35m Debt at year end vs $72m Cash and no debt at last balance date. So they are operating with around $100m in surplus capital or almost 26 cents per share. A stronger half year would further augment this. Caution and first lock down near death experiences no doubt prompt this liquidity conservatism but suspect a combination of higher dividends, capital returns, buy backs or acquisitions in MHJs future.

Good point Halebop. This cash hoard needs to make its way back to the shareholders. Dividends dividends dividends i reckon. Pay a 15 cent dividend next year and increase it 15% every year from there. That would re-rate it. 15 cent dividend would only cost $58m and they generated $83m cash last year before dividends.

[Waltzing]

Oh no... your telling the SHAZ about this share... tooo late now...

have to look for something undervalued in Europe... its game over here... small country words spread tooo fast...

but have smart phones and thats why even from the beach they are buying...but its true broker offices will only have a junior staffer on..

can here Barking ...it still doesnt match MR B's rules...

what? 2 dollars?????? :eek2::eek2:

what its still cheap?

AUS dollar DIV...

almost fainting...:ohmy:

[Rawz]

I thought Mr B was all about growth at a reasonable price? :confused:

[Rawz]

Oh no. Shhhh dont tell Percy :p

MHJ up 88% YTD
LOV up 70% YTD

Battle of the jewelers has a very clear winner this year :cool:

[Waltzing]

Mr B must be out boating...

[winner69]

I thought Mr B was all about growth at a reasonable price? :confused:

MHJ fits the bill perfectly

Didn't you say high growth and PE less than 10

Wow

[Rawz]

MHJ fits the bill perfectly

Didn't you say high growth and PE less than 10

Wow

Beagles journey with HLG started with a high dividend yield… I’m starting to see some parallels here..

[winner69]

Beagles journey with HLG started with a high dividend yield… I’m starting to see some parallels here..

I'll send him the details

Watch thsi space .... silence means he's accumulating :)

[winner69]

Punched global jewellery sales growth into the database and this spat out -

“According to the recent research report, the demand of global Jewelry Market size & share expected to reach to USD 500 Billion by 2026 from USD 324.60 Billion in 2020, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% during the forecast period 2021 to 2026”

MHJ global aren't they?

[Waltzing]

"MHJ global aren't they?"

well... few stores here and there..

But not really all over the globe...let's not get carried away here..

true 3 dollars would be a great SP handle for sure..

got some graph paper there winner? extend the slope of the triangles out and you get 3 dollars..

who doesnt have A3 size graph paper?

[winner69]

They say 'well above' .....is that another way of saying 'considerably higher'

Is $44.6m plus considerably higher equal $55m (assuming a little higher is $50m)


Jeez - half one Comparable EBIT going to be not far full year 2021 of $56.6m

[Rawz]

They say 'well above' .....is that another way of saying 'considerably higher'

Is $44.6m plus considerably higher equal $55m (assuming a little higher id $50m)


Jeez - half one Comparable EBIT going to be not far full year 2021 of $56.6m

I remember last year when they reported HY npat of $39m I had in my spreadsheet an estimated FY profit of $37m lol.
I quickly bought as many shares as I could. The market this time around is much more aware of MHJ. It is a half billion dollar company after todays rise..

W69 maybe HY $50m EBIT and FY $80m?

[Greekwatchdog]

Currently $1.375 on ASX

[Beagle]

Beagles journey with HLG started with a high dividend yield… I’m starting to see some parallels here..

15% Gross. The trick is to ensure you think the company can pay those dividends sustainably in the future.
I make no comment on MHJ's ability to do so and don't hold.

[sb9]

Currently $1.375 on ASX

Closed at AU 1.38 and touched high of 1.475 on small volume of 379 shares.
$2 is surely on cards sometime in Q1 22.

[Waltzing]

Yep not on MR B's list... told ya... its been a speculative purchase and just once and while they pull one out of the bag..right now it got the wind across beam and shes starting to point up into the wind.

[Beagle]

I totally get it that people are making unnecessary purchases of whatever shiny stuff makes them feel better, I really do get that...(my personal weakness is shiny chrome on boats and cars) after what has been without question a truly brutal year for many....but will the frivolous spending last when things go back to normal ? I think you'd want to be dancing pretty close to the door when the music stops...

[Waltzing]

yes but is it now built into the DNA of most cultures.

After all ART of the Celts by Lang pretty much sums up the culture of bling..

European cities still thrive with fashion and dont forget the wearable arts movement in NZ.

I know sporting women who go to wellington for this event.

It been going on for thousands of years and so far the music just keeps going..

[Beagle]

Nearly back to where they were 5 years ago. Some people may be impressed by that, I'm certainly not.
Suppose holders will tell me this time its different and we're not at a peak of shiny stuff consumption...hmmm, I'm deeply skeptical.

[Waltzing]

Yes it been a good short term speculative investment. Long term holders will have been anything but happy. HLG has also had cyclical swings which has been wonderful for trading but has been a far more consistent performer!

This stock never fitted some investor's rules.

[Rawz]

I totally get it that people are making unnecessary purchases of whatever shiny stuff makes them feel better, I really do get that...(my personal weakness is shiny chrome on boats and cars) after what has been without question a truly brutal year for many....but will the frivolous spending last when things go back to normal ? I think you'd want to be dancing pretty close to the door when the music stops...

The funny thing is Beagle, MHJ aren’t even selling much more than they have historically. They are selling much more on a per store basis but as a total sum of jewelry out the gate it is within cooey of previous years bar 2020.

Margins have expanded heaps thanks to a sharp online offering and reposition away from heavy discounting, but again- MHJ are not even hitting peak GP margins previously experienced.

So not sure about frivolous spending, maybe this is just normal?

COVID subsidies could be swinging the numbers but I checked nz wage subsidy (didn’t bother try checking Aus or Canada) and MHJ have claimed less this FY compared to last. And this half year is going to be “well above” last, so even the govt subsidy boosting profits argument is starting the fall away.

SB9 says 2 bucks within a few months… hard to argue against that when it’s trading on such low multiples right now

[Waltzing]

Its certainly been a great performance by a focused team and having a good team at the helm seems to have steadied the boat. Also having a good culture is important when supporting your sales team in the stores. The marketing on channels over the xmas period was also carefully crafted at a more educated market and not street.

Omi comin Homie to a town and country near you will cause short term disruptions and local forced venue closures like in NSW.

Another 6 to 12 months of business disruptions is on the cards.

[winner69]

Hey rawz ….taking some profits on EBO as share price heads to 60 bucks….but nothing wrong with taking profits

Not going to do the same MHJ are you.? Or EBO profits going into MHJ?

[Rawz]

Hey rawz ….taking some profits on EBO as share price heads to 60 bucks….but nothing wrong with taking profits

Not going to do the same MHJ are you.? Or EBO profits going into MHJ?

Well sadly W69 if you read back a couple of pages I sold a big chunk back at $1.20. Still have MHJ as 10% of my portfolio.

My MHJ proceeds went to HMY and EBO went to RAK

[Beagle]

The funny thing is Beagle, MHJ aren’t even selling much more than they have historically. They are selling much more on a per store basis but as a total sum of jewelry out the gate it is within cooey of previous years bar 2020.

Margins have expanded heaps thanks to a sharp online offering and reposition away from heavy discounting, but again- MHJ are not even hitting peak GP margins previously experienced.

So not sure about frivolous spending, maybe this is just normal?

COVID subsidies could be swinging the numbers but I checked nz wage subsidy (didn’t bother try checking Aus or Canada) and MHJ have claimed less this FY compared to last. And this half year is going to be “well above” last, so even the govt subsidy boosting profits argument is starting the fall away.

SB9 says 2 bucks within a few months… hard to argue against that when it’s trading on such low multiples right now

To be honest I don't understand the drivers behind consumer behavior in regard to jewelry, (for me a decent watch is all you ever need and that's maybe a once in 20-30 year purchase), so what would I know about jewelry stores lol... but I do suspect there are a lot of people buying as a way to make themselves feel better. Its been brutally tough in the Auckland region. I think if I was a holder, I'd be watching the chart very very carefully and when the worm starts to turn...

[Waltzing]

Jewellery is an extension of the ART world. Some of the most extravagant of course be the worlds elite putting wealth into Jewellery as a store of wealth.

There is a way of passing wealth from one generation to another. It never going to stop and its a been going on since man hung a tiger tooth from his neck...

https://artincontext.org/celtic-art/

[Beagle]

The dog understands Art...especially this sort of Art https://ivanclarkeartist.com/
Visited there last time I was in Queenstown with Couta1. Turns out one of my cousins is the manager there and I didn't even know it lol
Coutts bought some pieces quite a few years ago and I think from memory he's done extremely well out of it. Well worth a visit if you're in Queenstown.

[percy]

Jewellery is an extension of the ART world. Some of the most extravagant of course be the worlds elite putting wealth into Jewellery as a store of wealth.

There is a way of passing wealth from one generation to another. It never going to stop and its a been going on since man hung a tiger tooth from his neck...

https://artincontext.org/celtic-art/

https://hellogiggles.com/fashion/price-markup-diamond-rings-will-probably-stun-you/
No store of wealth here.
More likely a destroyer of wealth....lol.

[Waltzing]

And what a collection ... 3 Bow wow's in a Boat!

Classic....:t_up:

[winner69]

Michael Hill jewellery as a store of wealth ….hmmm

Got wifes jewellery valued last year for insurance purposes.

Jeweller said ‘wow, a Van Cleef & Arpels necklace. That’s a magnificent piece’ and then he drooled over a Van Cleef Arpels gold bracelet with some diamonds in it -never seen one of those before.

Went through the other stuff ….she has a lot accumulated from around the world ….and then came to gold pendant with a stone in it …..’oh Michael Hill ….only worth what the gold content and a bit for the stone ..prob less than what you paid for it’

Insurance premium went through the roof

[Waltzing]

Bought a Gold and green stone pendant last week for the other waltzer, but from a german dealer of antiques... custom local designer..

you never know in a hundred years time it might be like 1950's NZ kitchen pottery..but unlikely..

[Sideshow Bob]

Michael Hill jewellery as a store of wealth ….hmmm

Got wifes jewellery valued last year for insurance purposes.

Jeweller said ‘wow, a Van Cleef & Arpels necklace. That’s a magnificent piece’ and then he drooled over a Van Cleef Arpels gold bracelet with some diamonds in it -never seen one of those before.

Went through the other stuff ….she has a lot accumulated from around the world ….and then came to gold pendant with a stone in it …..’oh Michael Hill ….only worth what the gold content and a bit for the stone ..prob less than what you paid for it’

Insurance premium went through the roof

Not buying the jewellery, just buying the business that sells the jewellery! Have to believe in their business and model - plenty of punters out there like a bit of bling and buy something semi-regularly, so MGJ fits the bill.

Hopefully you have a few MHJ Winner, and out of the profit can get Mrs Winner some more of the good stuff!!

[Waltzing]

if it pops down sub 1.30 its a buy... the result sounds fantostic...slim chance...

[Beagle]

https://hellogiggles.com/fashion/price-markup-diamond-rings-will-probably-stun-you/
No store of wealth here.
More likely a destroyer of wealth....lol.

Shiny things...I've had a few but you'd struggle to beat the wealth destruction of a high end Bentley
Interesting lesson in residual values here Brand New $595K https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/bentley/flying-spur/listing/3400788735?bof=WvknSnnb
and 4 years later if you use it very sparingly and maintain it impeccably it has a retail value of just $195K, (which means about $150K in your hand to trade it in if you're really lucky, more likely about $120K).
https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/bentley/continental/listing/3400724971?bof=WvknSnnb
Yeap, just 25% residual value after just 8000 km's so the original owner burned about $450,000 peacocking around showing off...just a lazy little $56 in depreciation for each kilometre travelled lol. I doubt they cared...probably old money. I think that "just" tops any wealth destruction Michael hill jewellery will do to you lol

Sorry for off topic post...just a bit of amusement for you guys on how the upper class tear up money.

[Habits]

Shiny things...I've had a few but you'd struggle to beat the wealth destruction of a high end Bentley
Interesting lesson in residual values here Brand New $595K https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/bentley/flying-spur/listing/3400788735?bof=WvknSnnb
and 4 years later if you use it very sparingly and maintain it impeccably it has a retail value of just $195K, (which means about $150K in your hand to trade it in if you're really lucky, more likely about $120K).
https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/bentley/continental/listing/3400724971?bof=WvknSnnb
Yeap, just 25% residual value after just 8000 km's so the original owner burned about $450,000 peacocking around showing off...just a lazy little $56 in depreciation for each kilometre travelled lol. I doubt they cared...probably old money. I think that "just" tops any wealth destruction Michael hill jewellery will do to you lol

Sorry for off topic post...just a bit of amusement for you guys on how the upper class tear up money.

Buy the second hand one beagle.... much better value to suit your well tuned senses. High inflation in 2022 could well see the 2017 model hold its value, then do a private sale and keep the retailer commission.

On MHJ I reluctantly sold half my holding in sept/oct to help a family member with a first home. House bought in may on longterm settlement deal, just quietly. Pleased to still have the remaining half but am starting to feel the stock will take a breather

[Waltzing]

"high end Bentley"

chap down the road has 2 and offered one for a drive last month... fabulous !

MHJ should drop back a bit . Its not too late for the last of the summer highs and start of the summer wines.

the upper classes invested there horse gains 20 years ago in commercial property.. the wealth increase now is staggering!!!

Now honestly your all just jealous you dont have more MHJ!

Its not too late!

[Habits]

"high end Bentley"

chap down the road has 2 and offered one for a drive last month... fabulous !

MHJ should drop back a bit . Its not too late for the last of the summer highs and start of the summer wines.

the upper classes invested there horse gains 20 years ago in commercial property.. the wealth increase now is staggering!!!

Now honestly your all just jealous you dont have more MHJ!

Its not too late!



Not so much for those who bought their commercial property through KPG. We are keeping the faith since buying in 2020. Drury is ramping up

Back to mhj, bought at around 70c

[Bjauck]

"high end Bentley"

chap down the road has 2 and offered one for a drive last month... fabulous !

MHJ should drop back a bit . Its not too late for the last of the summer highs and start of the summer wines.

the upper classes invested there horse gains 20 years ago in commercial property.. the wealth increase now is staggering!!!

Now honestly your all just jealous you dont have more MHJ!

Its not too late!


Megabucks have been made by some from NZ real estate, they can splash out on a Shergar or depreciating Bentley if they want. Desperation vs. Abundance - extremes became more so. That was NZ 2021.

[Beagle]

Buy the second hand one beagle.... much better value to suit your well tuned senses. High inflation in 2022 could well see the 2017 model hold its value, then do a private sale and keep the retailer commission.

On MHJ I reluctantly sold half my holding in sept/oct to help a family member with a first home. House bought in may on longterm settlement deal, just quietly. Pleased to still have the remaining half but am starting to feel the stock will take a breather

Likely to keep halving in value every three years. Been there done that on a Mercedes S Class, once bitten twice shy !

Buying shiny things to peacock around with costs money whether its fancy cars, boats or jewellery !

[Waltzing]

"commercial property "

private commercial property was bought by these well healed horse people and placed in Trusts..in the late 1990's.

But back to MHJ... it not too late if it drop back to under 1.30... gosh what happened to .80....:scared:... ...dont under estimate the power of Celtic Art..and it made a come back in ireland and the UK in the late 19th century..

this stock has been an outstanding performer in the last 12 months and Rob has gotten the sales mix perfectly balanced.

The performance has seen some big hits into the stands and you cant take those boundaries back and use the Video ref to say "NO BALL".

Its game over for these accounting periods and the numbers are in and thats that..The runs are on the Board!

As they say in sport its Game over and Robs team were Winners and Grinners.

The official result will be signed off by the refs and posted on the score board.

Next seasons performance is another matter.

[Habits]

Well done with the CP which we also tried and did well out of. It has its downfalls in a pandemic but we had already exited to try rural property.

Re MHJ... buy the rumour and buy more after the fact maybe

[Rawz]

I thought MHJ were supposed to have announced it’s foray into a 4th digital market by now? Maybe early next year, lots to look forward to. Like what on earth are they going to do with all the cash they are producing (and hoarding)

Currently we are sitting on a no growth p/e of 10. That’s nuts! Profits are clearly growing much to the markets surprise.

Should be a very good year for MHJ in 2022. We are heading to $50m npat and likely to see a slow re-rate to 13 p/e which will better reflect the growth we are starting to see.

The non believers are saying the same stuff they were this time last year. Missed the boat and the gains. I can understand it thou. Was a dog stock for so long, maybe a few hands were bitten? Go on, put the hand out again- no bite, only diamonds

[Waltzing]

The Commercial property investment themes in the early 1990's was thought up by the Accountants generation educated during the 2 World War and implemented in Trust into the 1980's, not my generation. That was a very smart generation and it is only now that the long term insights of that generation can be seen in all its grandeur.

MHJ may well have anther good Indian summer, you never know.

[Habits]

Yep and not mine either waltzing, possibly some others here generation and they may have experienced the uplift from those warm trade winds. We got into investment from a young age, also in the 90s, and got a little 'booster' (shot bro) to add to our retirement nest egg. Not much for us to (martin) crowe about though

[Waltzing]

Lucky for investors Rob is there and if investors are lucky he will point the board in the direction of a special Div... surely some time later next year or Sooner!! Hoping the Hill family doesnt get too greedy.

for really investing in wealth, try pottery...its the next big thing..Crown Lynn...

[JoeM]

Currently 151 on the ASX.

Looks like it will be a good start to the year

[winner69]

Currently 151 on the ASX.

Looks like it will be a good start to the year

INCREDIBLE STUFF

See it hit 157 ...WOW

[Waltzing]

Came out of the blocks rating up... slowing down a bit at the 250 meter mark....lucky the portfolio percentages is far higher than it should be..

the 4 week range on the ASX is stunning... should have held them on the ASX. Oh dear would have been very over weight then...

Bet most holders in NZ are at the beach and havnt checked the ASX:

[Waltzing]

off the highs but still above 1.45... what a ride!

[Rawz]

I've got this weird feeling where MHJ is a bit over 10% of my portfolio now and happy to see it skyrocket but also a bit sad because I sold 2/3 my stake back at the $1.20 mark.

Is there a Warren Buffett saying to help with this feeling? Like a bird in the hand.. is worth two in the bush..

Probably see a 10% gain on the open

[Waltzing]

well 10% is good. you could alway increase it again on the pull backs .... the dips.... that dont seem to be happening anymore with this stock...Probably sell some at over 2 dollars but not if the market updates just keep having plus numbers... stunning so far from a middling jeweller...The moral of the staff in retail is very important.

Gosh you might need to shout yourself's a G&T or a cold champers later in the week..

[percy]

I've got this weird feeling where MHJ is a bit over 10% of my portfolio now and happy to see it skyrocket but also a bit sad because I sold 2/3 my stake back at the $1.20 mark.

Is there a Warren Buffett saying to help with this feeling? Like a bird in the hand.. is worth two in the bush..

Probably see a 10% gain on the open
I never worrying about selling down a holding.
Usually find the recycled funds are put into a good performer.
However, remember to add to your winners and sell your losers really works.
Most successful portfolios have one really great performer that goes from under 10% to over 30%.Enjoy it,
At 50% ???? Be brave.???...Oh the worries of being too successful.....
At 60% plus you know the model portfolios is a load of rubbish... lol.
So put all your eggs in one basket and watch it carefully.???????????

[stoploss]

I've got this weird feeling where MHJ is a bit over 10% of my portfolio now and happy to see it skyrocket but also a bit sad because I sold 2/3 my stake back at the $1.20 mark.

Is there a Warren Buffett saying to help with this feeling? Like a bird in the hand.. is worth two in the bush..

Probably see a 10% gain on the open
3. “If you aren’t willing to own a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes.”

[Waltzing]

and we are off..sprinting out of the starting blocks...

1.60 high today ?

[sb9]

Still a bit to catch up to AU close price of 1.465, which is about NZ 1.56

[Waltzing]

yes bit of a surprise mover as we were expecting tourism stocks to be moving about now back in 2020.. not a hope yet...

[Habits]

I've got this weird feeling where MHJ is a bit over 10% of my portfolio now and happy to see it skyrocket but also a bit sad because I sold 2/3 my stake back at the $1.20 mark.

Is there a Warren Buffett saying to help with this feeling? Like a bird in the hand.. is worth two in the bush..

Probably see a 10% gain on the open

"If only" and "what if", these simple words can mess with you. Maybe wait and buy back on dips.

[Waltzing]

yes those DIPS.....where were they...crackers and cheese..what if this is just a breather ...maybe the DIP was in Aus today...

[Waltzing]

from a chart perspective its broken out a little to the up side here leaving its base channel behind again.

[winner69]

That investor who paid A$1.57 the other day probably still happy with his bargain buy.

[Waltzing]

OMI in AUS should send the store shopper home for a few months but wait till APRIL...late summer party..

get ready here..

[Waltzing]

1.52 !!!!! :eek2:

[Greekwatchdog]

One wonders what next Fridays Guidance will be and maybe preview with some sort of div.

[Waltzing]

The excitement mounts....:eek2: .

Its a wonder we havnt had a winner prediction..Its far exceed any expectations we ever had...

[Rawz]

Winners last prediction was FY $30m I think. Whoops 😬

[Waltzing]

oh... well they hit a home run then by that definition... right up into the stands...:t_up:

[Rawz]

Analysts still say A$41.4m.

But it’s going to be closer to A$50m npat.

[Waltzing]

"Analysts "

obviously on holiday or just baffled...wonderful stuff on ARTS channel on celtic jewellery...Just shows you that people will always love wearing something more than just jeans and shorts ..

Dont think that the cultural habits of Kiwis should be used as a template for the world of fashion..

My hamilton designer friend who had to leave Hong Kong is now selling out in AUS.

She says she will never return home here except for holidays with her AUS children.

[winner69]

Analysts still say A$41.4m.

But it’s going to be closer to A$50m npat.

Only $50m …ljeez it was $45m last year

[Rawz]

Only $50m …ljeez it was $45m last year

Yes, its hard keeping up with these outstanding numbers MHJ are doing. But for now a 13% increase in profits will have to do.

A$50m FY22 is forward P/E of 11. I.e. no growth. Should be priced on forward P/E of 13 i.e. SP today of A$1.70 or NZ$1.80. That is a beautiful 19% capital gain we all can look forward to over the coming year. Plus a dividend (lets be conservative again) of 10 cents per share, a gross yield today of 6.6%.

May also get a special dividend? They probably have $80m in the bank now. If they paid out $50m of it to 387m shares thats 13 cents each omg fantastic, what a company!!

[Waltzing]

Since OMI is making people stay Homie for longer the retail trade might go on a bit longer...

strong demand for this retail share today.

1.53... take that...

[Rawz]

Since OMI is making people stay Homie for longer the retail trade might go on a bit longer...

strong demand for this retail share today.

1.53... take that...

I agree Waltz. I think it is highly likely us homies will be locked up (at home) a couple more times this year. Canada and Aus reporting huge numbers.. sales must be going gangbusters over there!

MHJ sell lots of bling during these covid times. I guess if you cant do a nice dinner out, or go to the movies or theater or travel etc for a birthday or anniversary because of lockdowns or restrictions then the next best thing is some jewelry for your significant other. And delivered straight to your door via MHJ's market leading online offering. Digital sales have more than doubled in the last 2 years from $16m to $34.8m.

Not long until we get half year report

[Waltzing]

yes while WHS has move into a trade not an investment; MHJ is still only starting to open up.

Jewellery is like celtic art. It doesnt just depend on people being stuck at home.

In fact people often buy jewellery when they travel and also whatches.

Travel can bring new products into view and therefore jewellery is not like big tickets items like TV's.

anyway Hillary Hahn is playing.. cant miss that..Arts channel and i bet Sir M is a big fan...

[winner69]

yes while WHS has move into a trade not an investment; MHJ is still only starting to open up.

Jewellery is like celtic art. It doesnt just depend on people being stuck at home.

In fact people often buy jewellery when they travel and also whatches.

Travel can bring new products into view and therefore jewellery is not like big tickets items like TV's.

anyway Hillary Hahn is playing.. cant miss that..Arts channel and i bet Sir M is a big fan...

Hilary performing Bach Partita No. 2 is one sad piece

[Waltzing]

I think anything she plays sounds fabulous...She has made Bach cool again.

New concert venue under construction in hamilton should provide some really great experiences for the public of Central North island.

Culture coming to Wakatoo.

[sb9]

I agree Waltz. I think it is highly likely us homies will be locked up (at home) a couple more times this year. Canada and Aus reporting huge numbers.. sales must be going gangbusters over there!

MHJ sell lots of bling during these covid times. I guess if you cant do a nice dinner out, or go to the movies or theater or travel etc for a birthday or anniversary because of lockdowns or restrictions then the next best thing is some jewelry for your significant other. And delivered straight to your door via MHJ's market leading online offering. Digital sales have more than doubled in the last 2 years from $16m to $34.8m.

Not long until we get half year report

We'll probably have more colour on upcoming HY report when they release Q2 trading update this Friday 14th. And it'll set the tone for how quickly $2 target can be achieved. I'm quite bullish that it'll get there or close to by HY results time in Feb.

[Waltzing]

how many fingers will be on the buttons...

[Mudfish]

I've been trying to ascertain what MHJ shares are actually worth with the information available right now. Smarter guys than me might be able to work it out but I'm struggling a bit. I'm only interested in NPAT as EBIT muddys the water for me. When looking back 4 years, I've compared first half NPAT to full year NPTA and see 2nd half is significantly lower than first half so a good result first half certainly doesn't extrapolate to the second half. This is important as I try to get a handle on NPAT predictions for the year so can use PE to work out SP. So, I've compared full year NPAT over last few years. I conclude Y22 NPAT likely around 50m. No one can crystal ball this figure but using available information, it seems feasible. Therefore, chuck on a PE of 12 (safe PE, others would give it a lot higher), and SP is $1.56. That's given the information we have right now. To me, the buy opportunity left at $1.30 ish. Any buying at today's prices is moving into 'gambling' territory. I'm not considering that this is a growth stock or not as I don't know. I'll certainly relook at this on Friday and have another think. Feel free to destroy

[Waltzing]

your on the money ... travel doesnt mean jewellery wanes as it not a TV...inflation can hit it though as its left over.. Girls love to show off stuff...and some boys..

[Rawz]

Hey Mudfish, its really hard to work out looking at the historicals aye. Maybe others have better data. Some years are really out of whack due to the closing of stores and associated one off costs.

2018
HY= $8.7M
FY= $31.7m

2019
HY= $19.5M
FY= $16.5M

2020
HY= $21.4M
FY= $3M

2021
HY= $39M
FY= $45.2M

2022
HY est= $41.9m
FY est= $50.8m

These are Aus$. So if FY22 is $50.8m NPAT that's EPS of 0.13.
At your target P/E of 12 that's current Aus SP today of 12*0.13 A$1.56 (like you say) or NZ$1.66

But remember they had $70m cash at last balance date so maybe $80m today. That's $0.20 per share. Thats A$1.76 or NZ$1.87 target price.

Maybe STU wins the great race to $2 after all.

[Rawz]

If you are worried MHJ are selling heaps and heaps and it is never to be repeated they actually arnt. Their revs and GP margin have been fairly steady over last 6 years. MHJ just stopped closing stores and now pull through a much better bottom line.




2022 est
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016


Revenue
$ 575,898.42
$ 556,500
$ 492,060
$ 569,500
$ 575,539
$ 582,975
$ 551,127


Gross Profit
$ 365,695.50
$ 348,900
$ 298,204
$ 353,032
$ 366,882
$ 368,943
$ 351,276


GP Margin
63.5%
62.7%
60.6%
62.0%
63.7%
63.3%
63.7%



As per above. They wont even be selling as much in est FY22 as they did back in 2017!!

Gee heaps of market share to make up huh? Maybe this is the bottom of the cycle?? 2 bucks easy!!

[Mudfish]

Cheers Rawz. There's my first mistake, I was NZD. I will have a think about where cash fits into all of this. Cash reserves are obviously good but that isn't profit. Awesome you mention STU as I can't get the SP to look any better than MHJ. Going on the information we have today, I'm thinking both companies were good buying $1.30 but these horses have already run. I'd like to buy but don't want to gamble on the unknown. You've motivated me to revisit STU anyway. Thanks

[winner69]

Rawz - aren't you meant to use Comparable EBIT as the real profit figure

Goodness knows what this Comparable EBIT is --- maybe a nice number they pull out of thin year?

[Rawz]

Rawz - aren't you meant to use Comparable EBIT as the real profit figure

Goodness knows what this Comparable EBIT is --- maybe a nice number they pull out of thin year?

I've got it in my spreadsheet but dont really look at it. Not smart enough to dissect it. Leave that sort of stuff to the masters like yourself, W69 ;)
Like you say, can easily be pie in the sky stuff.

A big part of my MHJ investment philosophy is the new management came in to right size the business and build online offering. That as you know consumes a lot of time. Now that multi year part is largely done lets see what they can do to grow sales. They only recently hired a digital guru for the exec team.. Rob Fyfe moved to chairman.. happy to give them a crack.

[daveypnz]

Seems to be getting hammered on the ASX, any reason?

[Waltzing]

1.30 ....:eek2:... anyone else ... 1.30 ... it hasnt worked so far.

just cant find a reason for a down grade yet...

chart shows a pullback required...

what say you winner?

[winner69]

on ASX going as fast as KMD

[Waltzing]

some profit taking winner... the chart says sell if you bought is well under a dollar..

1.30 would be a BUY

everytime we have put a pin on the chart it hasnt come near it for more than an afternoon or less.

[Waltzing]

yes winner we do but one cant be greedy and the rest of the investor might already be happy to hold and go higher..


1.30 looks like a buy on the chart... 1.40 more likely.

then fill in and build up. Jewellery is often bought when people travel. Not saying MHJ is in this category but other kinds of ethic jewellery has over the millennium been bought as one travels aboard such as the grand tour or the invasion of geographic areas with some looting going on...

Treasure hunters and tomb raiders.. ect ect

the hoarding of trinkets has been going on in the bazaar since traders travelled from one city town to another..

[Greekwatchdog]

Walltzing, have you just gone a buying spree? Big volume!!!

[Waltzing]

well we stated here this morning that 1.40 would be a buy. A Zoom meeting last night discussed SKC, MHJ, some local retailers and US big Tech.

I had voiced last year to buy more MHJ but others saw it as a big risk...

Clearly stated 1.40 for a buy... 1.30 for buy a few MORE...

that 2 million is an off market trade. removed it from the vol?

others can comment on if they consider SP as retail daily. Orders are often marshalled by the brokers. A SP is usually i thought not retail but registered off market.

The SHAZ are buying...no chance of 1.40 unless we get a risk shock somewhere..

SKC was seen as the opportunity now and likely to be so if the big sick arrives for a while yet.

[sb9]

Walltzing, have you just gone a buying spree? Big volume!!!

Hopefully that should clear ACC's lot considerably, as at last disclosure on Apr'21 they went under 5% threshold and had 18.9mln shares at their disposal.

[winner69]

So tomorrow s when we find out how much more than 'well above $44.6m' is

Suppose the person who bught share at A$1.75 the other thinks is heaps

[Rawz]

So tomorrow s when we find out how much more than 'well above $44.6m' is

Suppose the person who bught share at A$1.75 the other thinks is heaps

What do you reckon Winner?

I say

A$48.6m ebit
$42.5m npat

[sb9]

So tomorrow s when we find out how much more than 'well above $44.6m' is

Suppose the person who bught share at A$1.75 the other thinks is heaps

Sure you meant A$ 1.57, right..

[winner69]

Sure you meant A$ 1.57, right..

yep A$1.57

[Waltzing]

back to 150.... no chance...

here we go some profit taking .. 120 G under the auction hammer..

[winner69]

Bit confused --- they say H122 EBIT be more than H121 of $44.6m

Let's say $50m ....but they reported $58.9m in H121 --- so are profits actually going backwards

Must be some adjustments somewhere

[Waltzing]

Its a typo... H120..

someone typed the wrong year..

[Rawz]

Bit confused --- they say H122 EBIT be more than H121 of $44.6m

Let's say $50m ....but they reported $58.9m in H121 --- so are profits actually going backwards

Must be some adjustments somewhere

Yeah all this underlying ebit and comparable reporting stuff eh..

Im just going to look at top line and bottom line. 'Keep it simple, stupid'

Master Winner, let us know if you smell a rat in the way they report the numbers

[Waltzing]

its the wrong year someone in media put the previous years number in there...

expect they will correct it shortly..thats the number for H120...still not a good look and everyone much be down with OMI.

Just emailed the CFO.

[Rawz]

For you Waltz

13398

Hence why Ill just be looking at revenue and profit. much easier.

[Waltzing]

" Statutory earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) increased by 66.9% to $58.9m (FY20H1: $35.3m)"
"Comparable EBIT1 of $44.6m against $31.6m for FY20H1."

from H Year 21..

H20 had a similar number before i checked back...

Numbers look ok.

[winner69]

For you Waltz

13398

Hence why Ill just be looking at revenue and profit. much easier.

So you will be looking how H122 revenues have gone v $317.0m last year and NPAT compared to $38.9m last year

[Waltzing]

21 H1 result.

• Statutory net profit after tax increased by 82.1% to $39.0m (FY20H1: $21.4m).
• Statutory earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) increased by 66.9% to $58.9m (FY20H1: $35.3m)
• Comparable EBIT1 of $44.6m against $31.6m for FY20H1

[Rawz]

So you will be looking how H122 revenues have gone v $317.0m last year and NPAT compared to $38.9m last year

Yeah thats right. Unless they have closed a heap of stores then ill concentrate on underlying ebit lol

Okay final guess.




H122
H121
PCP Increase


Revenue
$ 349,640
$ 319,884
9%


EBIT (Underlying)
$ 49,060
$ 44,600
10%


NPAT
$ 43,173
$ 38,900
11%

[sb9]

Well not long to go for big reveal tomorrow re Q2 trading update and more colour on 1H22.

[Waltzing]

we lightened a fraction today as europe beckons...and hoping for some tech pull backs in the US as the FED has to tighten...

this thing has very little hope of seeing 1.40 again based on increases of EBIT and EBIT1.

we think 2 dollars.

[Rawz]

Well not long to go for big reveal tomorrow re Q2 trading update and more colour on 1H22.

Ah yes thats right. have to wait until late feb for actual numbers

[Waltzing]

Brisc will get some of our off load as its pulled back from its highs and HLG.

and rebalanced some MHJ for the next leg ...

[Muse]

pretty bloody impressive quarterly update. i'm pleased i bought a whack of shares in 2020 - less pleased its small part of the portfolio though! oh well.
One analyst who did stick their neck out for this was jarden who at the depth of its SP talking about the turnaround and upside to come. I thought ooh thats bold this thing is in dire straights but put a small chunk in - almost trebled my money on a small investment.

[sb9]

Going to be a boomer of 1H22 and some healthy divvies next month when they announce results.

[Muse]

I think I can see Rawz taking a stand in the market for 100,000 shares @ $1.50

[Waltzing]

Not bad going on the whole...steady as it goes.. under the trading conditions pretty good really.

opposite of the not bad , could do better, terrible , booo....

GO the Canucks !!!!

Stellar even in BAD WEATHER!!!

Hit that PUCK!!

[winner69]

So this Comparable EBIT to be $53m

profit up 19% on sales growth of 2.4%

IMPRESSIVE STUFF

[Waltzing]

YEP .. got to heading to higher high and lower lows...

only the lower lows lasted about that long... how long? not long..

Sir M is playing Hillary Bach to the sales teams in there sleep. Perfect nights sleep according to Hillary.

Who would have thought that Bach had the secret to deep sleep.

[Rawz]

I think I can see Rawz taking a stand in the market for 100,000 shares @ $1.50

No I am not whale, i am just a small forgetful goldfish swimming around with lots of big fish.. or sharks? lol.

Sales not really going anywhere huh? Just as well its priced on a forward no growth p/e of 10.

Margins might be at peak? If they are 250bp (mid point of guidance) above last year its 65.2% gp margin. Last time it was close to this was 2018 at 64.8%

I agree with Waltzing. "Not bad going on the whole...steady as it goes.. under the trading conditions pretty good really."

[Waltzing]

I agree Rawz.. any time a jewellery retail chain can move the needle up and keep the sales team and the customer happy in difficult condition its a GOAL and Pucks on the score board.

The team is still in the game.

Div goes up and the crowd throws their scarf's in the air...:t_up:

[Rawz]

The low sales growth has really thrown me tbh. I was expecting 10% growth based on the ebit "well above" comment. I didnt know it was going to be basically all margin growth as reported today.

I guess other retailers (whs & hlg) have reported negative sales growth.. maybe 2% growth is all good then?

[Waltzing]

NZ and AUS are tough markets with a LOT of competition.

Canada is outstanding and a surprise.

This is the most disrupted period of trading conditions in decades.

it not as if you get to practise rallying the sales team in a war zone every year.

Its a tight innings and they have the runs on the board.

Same store sales and all stores needs a break down in table format and that might brighten up the outlook a bit.

Same store average was 9.2.

[Muse]

The low sales growth has really thrown me tbh. I was expecting 10% growth based on the ebit "well above" comment. I didnt know it was going to be basically all margin growth as reported today.

I guess other retailers (whs & hlg) have reported negative sales growth.. maybe 2% growth is all good then?

I dunno rawz - as you say all other retailers have negative sales growth, so 2% is still #1 in retail. Everything has been shut. Same store sales growth (despite day’s lost) together with margin expansion - that is the holy grail combination of retail.

Hence why the sp trebling over 2 years…might have another 12 months of growth left in the tank…before a new chapter opens.

[Waltzing]

Same store rawz was pretty good.

AVE 9.2.

score board looks good by any measure.

[Rawz]

Guess you guys are right. Wouldnt it be good to see a normal year of trading..

MHJ is going to do about A$45m in npat this half year. Its quite incredible really.

[winner69]

I dunno rawz - as you say all other retailers have negative sales growth, so 2% is still #1 in retail. Everything has been shut. Same store sales growth (despite day’s lost) together with margin expansion - that is the holy grail combination of retail.

Hence why the sp trebling over 2 years…might have another 12 months of growth left in the tank…before a new chapter opens.

Agree same stores sales growth and better margins the holy grail

But MHJ same stores sales not calculated the normal way. They seem to use days stores were trading in their calculation……whatever this actually means Same store sales reflect sales through store and online channels on a comparable trading day basis and a proportional allocation of Professional Care Plan (PCP) revenue and accounting adjustments, and are unaudited. Same store sales do not include permanent or temporary store closures on a same trading day basis.


Has me totally confused and when I get confused it’s an orange flag. The only ‘correct’ number is that H1 sales were $8m higher than pcp

[Rawz]

And when Winner is confused im concerned lol.

This comparable EBIT or underlying ebit is unaudited, pre-AASB16, pre-IFRIC SaaS-related adjustments, and with normalisations.
What's the normalisations I wonder?

Ah well. Top line will be 2% higher and bottom line will be 15.4% higher than last years $39m npat.

Based on bottom line being $45m ish.
This is calculated using $51m ebit (comparable) which is the mid point of todays guidance and then using last years NPAT/EBIT ratio of ~88%.
I.e. ebit $51m* 0.88= $44.88m npat

[sb9]

I'm happy to continue to hold and collect those divvies, as I've only paid buck less than today's price. Not really that fret with numbers for now...

[Waltzing]

What matters is that the tabulated results are consistent. That they havnt changed the underlying stat method.

I agree that the investor presentations dont have the detail one would desire but as long as they are consistent with the underlying method.

[Rawz]

What matters is that the tabulated results are consistent. That they havnt changed the underlying stat method.

That true..

[winner69]

And when Winner is confused im concerned lol.

This comparable EBIT or underlying ebit is unaudited, pre-AASB16, pre-IFRIC SaaS-related adjustments, and with normalisations.
What's the normalisations I wonder?

Ah well. Top line will be 2% higher and bottom line will be 15.4% higher than last years $39m npat.

Based on bottom line being $45m ish.
This is calculated using $51m ebit (comparable) which is the mid point of todays guidance and then using last years NPAT/EBIT ratio of ~88%.
I.e. ebit $51m* 0.88= $44.88m npat



I reckon $51m ebit will end up as NPAT about $34m/$35m .... last year $39m

Need to take lease interest (I) and Tax (T) off the EBIT

[Halebop]

I think net positive for the future...

Being hurt by lockdowns this quarter seems apparent and aligned with some commentary that consumers are not bouncing back from lockdown to the same degree as previous.

Strategy of margin expansion appears to be working. This hurt MHJ when 1st applied, retail teams were used to discounting to get the sales and struggled with the change and management were sluggish getting this right but appear to now have this in hand.

Like for like sales appears to include like for like number of trading days - this is a reasonable approach for retail but has unexpected remifications on metrics in lockdown scenarios - i.e. higher like for like sales when sales are in fact down. I think the positive is less lockdown days will likely translate to sales growth at the higher margin so points to more profit growth.

Would like to see some capital management - MHJ are sitting on way too much capital, higher profits this quarter will have added to that cash pool and they need to do something with it. If caution is still de jour would at least like to see 100% dividends...

[winner69]

So Comaparable EBIT could be up $8.4m on last year to $53m

Assuming a 65.2% GM (up 2.5% points) then

Increased EBIT from selling more is $5.0m and the impact of the increased GM% is $8.1m = Gross Margin up $13.1m .... with expenses up $4.7m

Jeez that margin expansion big contributor eh -- worth $8m ..... and essentially accounts for all the increase

The real half year report will be interesting

[winner69]

the zillions of corporate welfare they received last year interesting .... but then again they don't seem to have had windfall sales after lock downs finished like many other retailers ..... result reported profit down maybe 10% plus

I wonder what actually is the real level of business going forward .... something to ponder over the weekend

[Rawz]

I reckon $51m ebit will end up as NPAT about $34m/$35m .... last year $39m

Need to take lease interest (I) and Tax (T) off the EBIT

But actual ebit is going to be ~$67m. So you would take the lease interest off that wouldnt you?
The $51m ebit is going on the old way of actual interest isnt it? Or do i have it backwards
$34m npat too low W69

I'm no accountant thou.. I think SB9 has the right outlook... numbers look good. Happy to hold for the dividend

[Muse]

the zillions of corporate welfare they received last year interesting .... but then again they don't seem to have had windfall sales after lock downs finished like many other retailers ..... result reported profit down maybe 10% plus

I wonder what actually is the real level of business going forward .... something to ponder over the weekend

aye. i don't begrudge any retailer (or anyone else) for keeping the wage subsidy when they were legally able to do so. The downside, however, it makes YOY comps harder, assessing what is maintable more difficult, and I dont think it fair to do a multiple on earnings keeping them, as its not a long term or high quality source of income (IE, it is worth the net of tax cash rec'd and nothing else). I dont know how much MHJ has rec'd - loads I suspect. HLG rec;d over 13 million in the 2 years to august 2021. I wish briscoes had kept theirs but handed it all back - the only upside is going forward they won't cycle off them. When doing a deep dive on the underlying economics of each business best to take the subsidy out, so as to see the true underlying profit and implied valuation metrics based on operating earnings. makes a pretty big impact

[Waltzing]

Canada is the icing layer on the xmas cake here and a special div surely.

Full 2021 audited financials provide interesting reading. Note: tax losses are being held for future use over 30 mill for US and a small amount for NZ.

Nice Vol day over 500,00 mostly retail in all prob.

[Rawz]

Canada is the icing layer on the xmas cake here and a special div surely.

Full 2021 audited financials provide interesting reading. Note: tax losses are being held for future use over 30 mill for US and a small amount for NZ.

Nice Vol day over 500,00 mostly retail in all prob.

Waltz, do you reckon another USA play is on the cards? Use up some of that $100m spending power they have? Maybe this time a slow expansion rather than buying a bankrupt chain of stores in the middle of a financial crisis..

Goodbye special div?

[Waltzing]

Discussed on Zoom this morning after Bike ride in the country side around Lake Karaipro...

The thoughts were expanding into US is unknown.

Maybe they will continue to expand in Canada and Rob F will be a very careful custodian of shareholder funds.

Special div more likely or increase in Div as EPS grows.

[winner69]

Good to see Canada sales getting back to pre-covid levels

Good or a worry -- most retailers seem to have a good couple of years with current sales level (annual basis) quite a way above pre-covid levels in spite of lockdowns etc ..... ie they've done well capturing the pent up demand plus.

Checking back Canada sales are much the same as they were at June 2018 .... and margins not much better ....and profit doesn't seem to have improved either

Hey rawz - whats going on with Canada, the icing on the Christmas cake

Suppose you'll tell me ....it's all about the future :eek2:

[Rawz]

Good to see Canada sales getting back to pre-covid levels

Good or a worry -- most retailers seem to have a good couple of years with current sales level (annual basis) quite a way above pre-covid levels in spite of lockdowns etc ..... ie they've done well capturing the pent up demand plus.

Checking back Canada sales are much the same as they were at June 2018 .... and margins not much better ....and profit doesn't seem to have improved either

Hey rawz - whats going on with Canada, the icing on the Christmas cake

Suppose you'll tell me ....it's all about the future :eek2:

Not sure tbh mate. What about the store count? I’m guessing it’s shrunk. Maybe the sale of the Canada store finance book has impacted the numbers as well?

CFO said in the agm last year that he watches the store metrics very closely. The theme of the business seems to be make more with less. As long as EPS goes up that’s all that matters

[Waltzing]

Winner Canada has performed in an country where real men are lumber jacks and girls wear Bear Fur... or used too.

Canada is still not back to 2018 levels. Half way between 2017 and 2018.

Very competitive business world wide.

Got to be a Div increase.

[winner69]

...........
The theme of the business seems to be make more with less. As long as EPS goes up that’s all that matters

I think its going to be making about the same (if not less) with less from this point of time onwards

My guess for FY22 is EPS to be less than FY21

That 'bet' re STU and MHJ share price reaching 2 bucks --- odds on STU might get there this year but methinks MHJ will never get there

[Waltzing]

Winner its going to take more efforts for sure but a happy team is a performing team.

STU in a different sector and it will take longer MHJ. Canada will have to expand which means more stores in Canada.

Population 38 Odd million, very big country, perhaps difficult to place new stores which means a very slow expansion but they will have to expand.

No business is static and without the abilities to execute ideas.

[winner69]

Was going to buy more but after pondering where they heading and future prospects I’ll leave those shares for the zoomers like waltz to pick up

[Rawz]

I think its going to be making about the same (if not less) with less from this point of time onwards

My guess for FY22 is EPS to be less than FY21

That 'bet' re STU and MHJ share price reaching 2 bucks --- odds on STU might get there this year but methinks MHJ will never get there

How do you arrive at that, Winner?

Have you had another look at half year profit estimate?

[Waltzing]

"zoomers like waltz to pick up"

my personal account has some.

But the entities no longer as the i stated we lightened already.

The other Zoomers were astounded it got this far...

Personally im staying a bit longer... and have stated 1.30 would trigger interest..

But im with you winner. They will have to expand somewhere to push on to 2 dollars.

They have executed this time and not ready to say that's their game plan over.

If your AVE price is well under a dollar your siting pretty.

The financials are a big job as this company as a few moving parts.

Got a bit of time while i wait for the next release of our software.

Once the new release is fit for purpose a lot of manual data comparisons will be script automated for markets.

[winner69]

Got some MHJ when they were cheap ... only reason probably .... and basically followed the rhetoric and hype since without doing any proper research.

The rhetoric about record Q2 sales and 10 consecutive quarters of same store sales growth and all the big percentages they seem to produce in their quarterly updates plus all the other stuff they rave about doesn't show in the chart below.

Seems a pretty ordinary effort to me .... even allowing for store closures and all that stuff .... and gross margin doesn't seem to have improved that much

The big question is whether will we see any decent sustained sales growth in the next few years - if not MHJ not cheap at moment

Lucky that I've done more than OK but I should have really checked whether rhetoric matches the numbers

[winner69]

aye. i don't begrudge any retailer (or anyone else) for keeping the wage subsidy when they were legally able to do so. The downside, however, it makes YOY comps harder, assessing what is maintable more difficult, and I dont think it fair to do a multiple on earnings keeping them, as its not a long term or high quality source of income (IE, it is worth the net of tax cash rec'd and nothing else). I dont know how much MHJ has rec'd - loads I suspect. HLG rec;d over 13 million in the 2 years to august 2021. I wish briscoes had kept theirs but handed it all back - the only upside is going forward they won't cycle off them. When doing a deep dive on the underlying economics of each business best to take the subsidy out, so as to see the true underlying profit and implied valuation metrics based on operating earnings. makes a pretty big impact

Moose FYI - MHJ received subsidies of A$17.7m in F20 and A$14.6m in F21. They don't count this in their Comparable EBIT

But most recipients of subsidies had windfall sales after lockdowns..... MHJ don't seem to have achieved this

[Waltzing]

Winner they may not have got this wind fall but they are still in the game and the DIV is notGood Yield in question.

In the old days Rules might be used by investors.

In KISS principal.
Low Long term Debt.
Solvent.
Good Yield.
Good Sale programs that value employees.
Net Profit not Net Loss.

MHJ is now inside this Rule Set.

[nztx]

Shave a buck off the SP and The Hawk may start to feel interested again :)

MHJ seems to be well overpriced now IMO

[Waltzing]

Unless they record severe losses the SP wont move down a dollar.

Is fairly priced right here.

[nztx]

Unless they record severe losses the SP wont move down a dollar.

Is fairly priced right here.


Is it ?

or just in a low yield goldfish bowl ?

Just one HY less favourable report ahead could change that too :)

What's changed since early 2019 with MHJ ? ;)

The hawk's general gut feeling is there could be a fair bit of slip sliding backwards
to come in many areas of the NZX Board sectors. No further major artificial economy
bicycle pump action expected from the Hill ahead, a bit of inflation thrown in instead ..

and that's before Robertson & mates even consider pulling the chain to suck a bit back in
from the bloated economic bowl overflowing with readies, now worth a fraction of what
they were when poured into the bowl..

[Waltzing]

Specific to MHJ.

MHJ is AUD dollar dominated and may increase its Canuck exposure we dont know yet.

Add the great new influence in RF and the current results speak for themselves.

You may well have many good points and many that can be added related to NZ economy.

But so far it looks like demand for NZ exports is underpinning the markets and hard work of everyone milking cows to growing grapes in many areas of New Zealand outside its cities and outside wellington.

[nztx]

Specific to MHJ.

MHJ is AUD dollar dominated and may increase its Canuck exposure we dont know yet.

Add the great new influence in RF and the current results speak for themselves.

You may well have many good points and many that can be added related to NZ economy.

But so far it looks like demand for NZ exports is underpinning the markets and hard work of everyone milking cows to growing grapes in many areas of New Zealand outside its cities and outside wellington.


What's Covid doing in Omacronville across the ditch & elsewhere ?

Peak stats if I'm not mistaken..

Economies stacked to the brim with artificially created inflationary funny money.

Did MHJ sales, prices & margins grow by the same invisible inflationary rate, or not so ? :)

Why not ?

And as for when it evaporates & the money creation stops / gets sucked back in ?

Not a risk I'd take here on current SP levels and certainly not on current Div rates IMO

[Waltzing]

Points for a general discussion on Macro economics, deficits and QE.

Humans have worn art work since and before the celts.

Dont expect them to stop anytime soon.

[nztx]

Points for a general discussion on Macro economics, deficits and QE.

Humans have worn art work since and before the celts.

Dont expect them to stop anytime soon.

So MHJ sales, prices & margins can't have grown by the same invisible inflationary rate, I assume ? ;)

Now they must be heading back to stumping up 100% of staffing etc costs out of margin ..

What will that do to the bottomline, if the economic bicycle pump action stops ? ;)

What will happen to SP, if the Div returns to 1.5 cps a half year sitting ? ;)

[Waltzing]

Probably a good topic for a thread on the effects off QE , supportive Macro economics policies, rising interest rates on the retail sector.

[winner69]

Specific to MHJ.

MHJ is AUD dollar dominated and may increase its Canuck exposure we dont know yet.

Add the great new influence in RF and the current results speak for themselves.

…
.

Might walk away from Canada just like they did with the States

But then Rob loves those Canada planes so will say NO

[Waltzing]

"Might walk away from Canada just like they did with the States"

short the stock winner.. go on!!

the stats going back 5 years dont seem to indicate they are sledding away..from Canuck land.

really winner... by now unless your under a dollar you should sell now.

[nztx]

Where's the upside with MHJ - Waltzing ? ;)

As far as I can see - if SP slides 3.0 c there's half year div gone

Make it 5.0c or 6.0 c slide - there's the div for a year at 6.0 c gone (assuming that's the case)

I have difficulty seeing MHJ as a $2 buck share or even fair value at current levels
based on recent past performance & the economic conditions looking forward ..

[Waltzing]

Investors have the option to short the stock.

Its a gamble what happens in the retail sectors now.

Not even considering selling anymore at the moment.

[nztx]

What will a normalised 6 months do Waltzing ?

Let's face it periods closed, followed by periods with bumper windfall sales in various locations ;)

What are you guys using for a dartboard ? ;)

[Rawz]

What will a normalised 6 months do Waltzing ?

Let's face it periods closed, followed by periods with bumper windfall sales in various locations ;)

What are you guys using for a dartboard ? ;)

Who knows nztx? what's your dartboard like?

Since new CEO and CFO came in margins have increased 250bp. Debt has gone from -$24m to $70m. SP has increased 110% Its not all bad.

HLG and WHS sales down at half year. MHJ sales up. Common... its not all bad. ;)

You are completely writing MHJ off. Fair enough- thats your call. Could do the opposite of what you say. Not saying I am buying at these levels.. not selling.. happy to see another few reporting periods.

[Waltzing]

The balance sheets of consumers in each country are not equal and nor are the currencies or the economies.

As stated open a thread of that complex subject. Dont forget each RB runs a ratio for T1 for banks and NZ has a new one coming.

Have clearly stated its a speculative investment for us based on long term thousands of years of business in humans wearing art.

Until more ECO information comes to light about the consumers balance sheets across all 3 ECO's not throwing darts anywhere.

Retail has always been a cyclical investment. You can fill your DASHBOARD of data from the countries published economic stats.

Here the one for the US, lots of reading here and who hasnt been reading this site.


https://www.bea.gov/

AUS has one also and thats where Winner goes to fill his DASHBOARD.

[winner69]

Rawz - I reckon H122 NPAT will be about A$36m and H222 about A$7m giving full year about A$43m v A$45m in F21

That's an EPS of about 11 cents/share so currently trading at a PE of 13

My pondering over the weekend and looking at numbers says that in light of no real sales growth and marginal margin increases over the last few years the current share price is pretty fair.

OK doing about the same with less might be OK but where's the growth coming from post all this rationalisation and transformation is the question. I see profits hanging around these levels for a while which isn't that exciting - means MHJ may have become a steady as she goes company with (hopefully) a decent dividend.

Market sentiment is reasonably positive (although that outrageously good announcement the other day didn't excite the market) so I will keep holding in the meantime - one never knows sales might start going through the roof.

[winner69]

Seems MHJ share price not far off all time high (sept 2016 reached 181)

That's good .... let the winners run they say

[Snoopy]

So this Comparable EBIT to be $53m

profit up 19% on sales growth of 2.4%

IMPRESSIVE STUFF


Calculation of Comparable EBIT for FY2021 (AR2021 p35)



Statutory EBIT$72.398m


add Canadian credit book revaluation$2.986m


less Government grants received($14.593m)


less Impact of AASB16 leases($4.197m)


equals Comparable EBIT$56.594m



Question: How is the impact of AASB16 lease adjustments calculated?

Answer.

1/ Go to cashflow statement statement (AR2021 p57) to get an estimate of rent payments made on the day to day running of this business.



Leasing Interest Paid (Operating activity)($6.653m)


Principal Portion of Lease payments (Financing Activity)($40.997m)



It is slightly awkward to estimate the excluding GST value on what used to be reported on as 'rent' for MHJ, because the GST rate varies according to which territory the MHJ stores are in (New Zealand 15%, Australia 10%, Canada: a composite federal and state system that varies between 5% and 15%). However, I consider that 12.5% is a reasonable estimate of the average.

Generally GST is not charged on interest payments. But the 'Leasing Interest paid' is an accounting construct for reporting purposes, built around what would have been in the pre -AASB16 days called rent. So I think I can best estimate the pre AASB16 payment of rent as follows:

[ ($6.653m + $40.997m) ]/ 1/125 = $42.356m

2/ Find depreciation of the 'Right of Use Asset', a category of depreciation that did not exist before AASB16 (Refer AR2021 p62)



Depreciation of Right of Use Asset($35.357m)


Consequential Covid-19 rent concessions($3.902m)



Adding together these two opposing effects of AASB16 the net result is:

[ ($35.357m+$3.902m) - $42.356m ] = ($3.097m)

OK that figure is a little bit different to the figure quoted in the annual report. I put that down to not being able to pinpoint the overall GST rate accurately ( I don't think MHJ disclose sufficient information to allow me to do this). But I feel my method is right nonetheless.

SNOOPY

[winner69]

I see average of 3 broker targets is A$1.25 (marketscreener)

Hope they are wrong

[Waltzing]

After the US invasion and unproven performance who could blame them for being conservative.

That why always described it as speculative..

So far the team is seeing the puck pretty clearly.

Wonder what the DIV will be.

[Waltzing]

they are still buying winner..

[sb9]

Good volumes too on both markets, could get to 1.70 at this rate...

[Waltzing]

Winners projected EPS would probably have to come in at >13 and DIV MOW up a bit.

Well priced at 1.70. But every other retailer report sales going backwards didnt they? except this one but BRIS is yet to report.

Dont think table earnings > 13 is coming this H1YTD.

Winners last projects was 11?

There is some snuff going through you wont see in the depth....and trades.

[Waltzing]

3RD QTR going to be very interesting stats.

[Waltzing]

sold off ... then bounced back...did not get to 1.30...

the SHAZ are buying... fearless...

[sb9]

Strong opening bid at 1.45, looks like MHJ is set apart from rest of retail stocks.

[Waltzing]

Speechless......in amongst La Mer of retail doom and gloom

[sb9]

Well we're (NZX) on our own today, no guidance from ASX as its closed for Australia Day.

[sb9]

Nice volume flow today with buyers and sellers in equilibrium.

[Waltzing]

yes great to see for players.